According to STATS … eight of the top 10 players in slugging since the start of the 2007 season have hit more home runs on the first pitch than on any other count. In fact, the first pitch has been the favorite home-run scenario among all major league hitters during this span. A look at the home-run counts since 2007 reveals most players are likely to connect early in an at-bat.
Most Home Runs by Count, MLB, 2007-2010
Count HR Pct
0-0 2904 17.6
1-0 1995 12.1
1-1 1918 11.6
3-2 1616 9.8
0-1 1588 9.6Most homers apparently happen on the first or second pitch of the at-bat, either 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1. Or when the pitcher absolutely has to get it in the strike zone, at 3-2. Plus, another reason is that any particular at-bat can have only one of count, except for 3-2, 2-2, and 1-2, where the number of pitches (and thus HRs) are elevated. The only exception was 1-1, which is kind of odd since technically the pitcher has a pitch to play with there, and thus could be throwing a pitch to try to get the hitter to chase it.
The least:
As for the counts in wich the fewest home runs are hit, 3-0 and 0-2 situations top the list. No surprise there, but what stands out is that 2-0 and 3-1 counts, the so-called hitter’s counts, generate so few longballs.
Fewest Home Runs by Count, MLB, 2007-2010Giants Thoughts
Count HR Pct
3-0 68 0.4
0-2 539 3.3
3-1 845 5.1
2-0 947 5.7
So perhaps that accounts for Pablo's power shortage this season, he's been trying to work deeper into counts and missing the pitches he used to blast out for homers. Meanwhile, he's getting into count situations where hitters normally are unable to do anything more with the pitch and not get the homer.
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