Giants Ain't Misching Misch

The Giants sent Pat Misch down to the minors Sunday to bring up Kevin Correia from the DL. In addition, it was noted that Yabu is now in a setup role and the Giants currently have no one in the long relief role. The rest of the bullpen - Chulk, Hinshaw, Taschner, Sadler - will have to pitch in when needed.

He's Starter Material

The Giants emphasized in reporting on his demotion that they wanted him to continue getting experience as a starter, and thus sent him down for that reason. However, Bochy also noted that he will be used primarily as a starter, which means that he could see some relief duty as well. It was also noted that Misch occasionally showed flashes of good pitching, but Bochy said he needed to get "better command of the ball down" to succeed consistently in the Majors.

Player Development

Which brings to mind a question I've been thinking about for a while: what is the best course of action for player development of a pitcher? A number of people on Giants communities have complained about the Giants player development, in particular claiming that they screwed up Jonathan Sanchez the past couple of years by keeping him up and relieving instead of down and starting. I just took that as general Sabean bashing, which I'm getting tired of, so sometimes it goes in one eye and other the other. But, this little voice in my head said, what if they are right, at least in Sanchez's case?

Learning Curve

Now, I'm no expert, but I do know some things. Earl Weaver, for one, believes that the best way to introduce a prospect into the majors is to bring him up first as a reliever and let him get acclimated to the majors slowly, because the majors is hard enough to fathom, let alone to get the pressure that comes with starting in the majors. Bring him up, let him get used to the majors on his own terms, and meanwhile put him into situations in the majors where he can have some success and learn a little.

And that makes sense in terms of how the Giants have handled their young starters, perhaps this is the influence of the late Pat Dobson, who used to be Sabean's arguably most trusted advisor. Cain and Lincecum are mature beyond their years and so they came up as starters and not relievers because they were ready.

Correia, on the other hand, appeared overmatched as a starter, after some early success, and thus got put in the bullpen to learn there until he was ready to return to starting. They gave him that chance last season by trading away Morris then shutting down Lincecum. And kept a rotation spot open for him to compete with Sanchez for this season.

Sanchez Not the Most Mature or Learned Pitcher

In Sanchez's case, he has given me some indication this season that his head was probably not all there yet, and perhaps still isn't quite there yet, but close enough. He has made a number of public comments about himself and the team this season that suggest that he's a bit of a headcase and immature, unlike Cain and Lincecum when they came up.

One egregrious example this season was when he got pulled early from a game and he publicly complained about it. Any pitcher that does not understand that when you walk so many hitters even before you reach the 6th inning, you are going to get sent to the showers early. Somehow, he didn't learn that in STARTING PITCHER 101 that a lot of walks are bad, that a lot of walks get you an early shower.

Another thing you should know better is not to talk to your manager through the media. That's not going to make your road easier and could make it harder. That's life.

Quality Over Quantity

That's one mistake I think people who are complaining are making, overvaluing quantity over quality. Some of these people think that it would have been better for Sanchez to start in the minors rather than relieve in the majors, and justify their thinking by saying that his success as a starter validates their thinking. However, pitchers don't always need to pitch in order to develop.

What is better for player development, pitching in the minors against hitters who are mostly AAA with a few AAAA quality hitters, or facing MLB hitters on a regular basis? Obviously, some pitchers are still figuring things out and need to pitch regularly in order to learn how to throw. But at some point, once you know how to throw, facing minor leaguers who don't really know how to hit at the major league level don't really help you develop, in fact, it could hinder you as you get into bad habits because things you do down there don't always work up in the big leagues because the hitters are better and smarter and more experienced.

Sanchez Has Stuff to Get MLB Hitters Out

The Giants judged that Sanchez would not learn as much starting in the minors as he would relieving in the majors. And his stats as a reliever the past two seasons support that decision. Jonathan Sanchez clearly can get major league hitters out regularly. If he wasn't ready for major league hitters then why was his peripherals so good against them?

For one, his H/9 was 9.4, meaning he held major league hitters to about a hit an inning, which is very good. His HR/9 was 1.0, meaning he was OK at that. His K/9 was 9.3, which was great, and he improved from season to season, with 7.4 in 2006 and 10.7 in 2007. Likewise his K/BB, overall 1.9, which was borderline bad, but in 2007 he had a 2.2 K/BB ratio, which was OK. He was really only bad at walks, with a BB/9 of 5.0 over the two seasons.

Overall, he peripherals were OK to good against MLB hitters as a reliever which means that his pitches were major league ready. In particular, he can strike out major league hitters regularly with his pitches, which showed that he didn't need to learn to throw in the minors. Rather, he needed to learn how to pitch in the majors.

If he had been starting in the minors, he would have been dominating hitters but learning nothing much from each game started. Because it is one thing to throw, as most pitchers do in the minors, but it is another thing to be a pitcher, which what most young pitchers need to learn to do if they have any hopes of having a long term career. You can see this in the difference between Cain and Lincecum, Cain is still learning to pitch, reverting back to bad habits occassionally, whereas Lincecum has continuously learned and improved himself in the short time he has been in the majors, he is learning to become a pitcher.

Sanchez clearly has the stuff to get major league hitters out, but just needed to figure out how to use his pitches to greater effect, something he wasn't going to learn in the minors by dominating them, it would be like a high school kid pitching to little leaguers - he can get most of them out, but he won't really learn anything. However, the Giants rotation was already full of pitchers who could hold their spot in the rotation, so Sanchez was left out of the rotation and placed in the bullpen.

But really, he was still pretty raw after the 2006 season, based on his stats as a reliever, so I don't think he was ready to start at the beginning of the 2007 season. However, if Lincecum wasn't around, it wouldn't have surprised me if Sanchez would have gotten a chance to start, he would have been a fine #5 starter once the season started, but the Giants were still trying to win with Bonds, and thus added a vet with low risk, high reward potential in Ortiz and a high risk, high reward pitcher in Zito.

Misch Still Has Some Learning To Do

Misch, on the other hand, was not that dominating in terms of strikeouts, whether starting or relieving in 2008. In fact, in the last two seasons, while he was able to keep hitters from hitting when he was relieving, it was like batting practice when he started. Something about starting makes Misch a batting practice pitcher so far in the majors.

And, overall, for the past two seasons, he hasn't been striking batters out, he hasn't been dominating them with the regularity that Sanchez showed while he was up as a reliever and now as a starter. Misch has been off and on with his ability to strike out hitters and, again, for some reason, he is extremely hittable as a starter. It happens, but that means he needs to go down to the minors because we have no space in the rotation nor bullpen for him to learn up here, there are still things he needs to learn as a thrower to become an effective pitcher in the majors.

Mr. Big "Stuff"

Some pitchers never learn how to become an effective pitcher in the majors and some pitchers just have that "stuff" that major leaguers talk about in pitchers. Like Cain and Lincecum, Sanchez has that "stuff" while Misch, lacking that "stuff", has to work harder and needs to make up for that by learning another pitch or getting better at locating a pitch in the strike zone. That is something you can practice in the majors or minors.

In an ideal world, he can learn up in the majors but there are only so many beat-downs before you lose your confidence. And he has been totally beat down by major leaguers when he is starting, not so much when he is relieving. And there is nothing wrong with that, he just might be not suited for starting and best suited for relieving. There is no shame in that.

In addition, for now, he's insurance in case we lose any of our starters to injury. Sometimes a team's circumstance requires you to go to a place that you have already done well in and thus you wait your turn. So he goes down to AAA and starts in order to be ready to jump in should the worse happens, because you never know. Particularly when it comes to pitchers, the most delicate of major league baseball players.

Not Everyone Needs to Start to Be a Good Pitcher

But looking at the circumstances, it seems to make sense that for Sanchez, being in the majors as a reliever was better for his development as a pitcher. Just look at Russ Ortiz. He was a reliever coming up, but then the Giants converted him to starting when they brought him up to the majors. Meanwhile, they started Rod Beck all through the minors but then brought him up to be a reliever.

Sanchez already had the pitches for the majors, otherwise he would not be able to strike them out with great regularity. What he needed to learn was to figure out how to pitch to the hitters and get them out without walking them. Ideally, he probably would have learned that quicker as a starter in the majors, but a spot was not open for him.

So the choice became, does he relieve in the majors or start in the minors? I think relieving in the majors was better for his development, because he probably faced more major league hitters as a reliever - and with more regularity - than he would have starting in AAA. To me, starting him in the minors would have just wasted the wear and tear on his body, because what he needed was quality hitters not quantity of pitching. That is something people have forgotten

TINSTAAPP

That got me to thinking and I looked around for a bit of info on TINSTAAP (for those who don't know: There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect). Here is what Gary Huckabay of Baseball Prospectus fame said about TINSTAAPP, which he first wrote about long ago, and which another author of BP quoted from more recently in this linked article when Huckabay wrote on it again:

When I first wrote that “There’s No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect,” it meant two things, one of which has kind of become lost over time. Yes, it means that pitchers get hurt at approximately the same rate that methheads swipe identities and lose teeth. That’s what all pitchers do, not just prospects. But it also had another meaning—that guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they’re so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects—they’re already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows.

That's all I've been saying above about Sanchez, with my attempt to explain why. I would have led off with this had I remembered sooner, but, in any case, I think it is worth noting. Sanchez was ready for the majors, he just didn't have a spot in the major league rotation to learn while the Giants were trying one last time to win with Bonds. Pitching him in the minors would have just wasted his pitching lifespan.

Lince-Shutdown

After 146.1 IP in the majors and 31.0 IP in the minors - for a total of 177.1 IP - Tim Lincecum has been shut down by the Giants, with Bochy noting, "We just added it all up and said, 'There's just not enough to gain by throwing him out there the next couple of starts. The guy's too valuable to us. He's our future, and we'll just go ahead and rest him up and get him ready for next year." He emphasized that there's nothing wrong with Lincecum physically that led to this decision.

Mike Krukow, on his regular morning spot on KNBR today, assured the hosts that Lincecum is not injured, that this is just a precaution when dealing with young arms, particularly one who only last year was throwing in college and the minors. The college and minor leagues are not as long as a major league season, he noted, and he felt that to be safe, you shouldn't increase the pitcher's IP load more than 25 or so IP over the previous year.

In 2006, Lincecum had 156.0 IP in college plus his professional starts, so the increase in IP was only 21.1 IP from 2006 to 2007. However, from 2005 to 2006, he went from 104.1 IP to 156.0 IP, a huge jump. So by Krukow's standards, he probably shouldn't have pitched much, if at all, as a pro last season, as Lincecum jumped up in IP solely from college was from 104.1 IP to 125.1 IP, leaving at most one start or a series of relief appearances in the pros if this limit was followed.

Cain is Able

At least his jump is not as bad as what Cain did a couple of years ago while coming up our system. Cain didn't jump too much from his signing to year to the next - I assume he pitched at least 40-50 IP in high school, though I'm not too familar with the normal IP load for high schoolers - but from 2003 to 2004, he jumped from 74.0 IP to a combined 158.2 IP (started in San Jose and ended in Norwich). He then jumped again to 192.0 IP in 2005, when he pitched mainly in AAA before a sterling beginning to his major league career, and he really hasn't looked back since.

Since then he has been pretty much around the same. After the 192.0 IP in 2005, he had 190.1 IP in 2006 and 193.0 IP thus far in 2007, with just one more start to go this season (only 9 games left and he just pitched yesterday, means that he pitches the 5th of 9 games then the season ends). He was hoping to reach 200 IP, but it would take a very well-pitched game to reach that.

More critical, to me, is his total pitch count. After yesterday's 113 pitch game, he has a total of 3,241 pitches thrown this season. With one start to go, he will end up around 3,350. I'll admit this is unscientific but I went through a stat book that listed each pitcher's pitch count by season and it seemed like anytime a pitcher would exceed 3,500 pitches in a season, within a season or two after that, his key pitching metrics dipped downward, whether by injury or a significant drop in production. The only pitchers I can remember who were able to beat the odds on that was Randy Johnson , and we'll never know whether it was wear and tear or just plain old age that is causing his recent problems with injuries, and, of course, Roger Clemens.

Lincecum Pitch Count

Lincecum is at 2,399 pitches in the majors this year, which averaged out to 16.4 pitches per inning. With 31.0 IP in the minors (and probably much easier innings than in the majors), assuming 16.4 pitches for the minors (conservatively high), that's 508 pitches. Together, he has thrown approximately 3,000 pitches this season. He would have had two more starts so he would have ended up at above 3,200 pitches had he not been shut down.

Given the high and hard usage that his arm received in college - his PAP abuse score was off the charts in college, among the worse each year - I can see why the Giants are being cautious with their wunderkind. That he is still not icing down his arm, though, speaks to how little actual abuse he has received the past couple of years.

Not that I'm campaigning for Lincecum to stay in the rotation. I think this is the right, conservative move. Lefty Malo was pushing for this one start ago, when his ERA was under 4.00; I could go either way, but I think if Lincecum had his druthers, he would rather start the games.

Opportunity for Others

In particular, at least before the injury to Sanchez took him out of the rotation, one reason I would have shut down Lincecum sooner than later, was that I wanted to see Pat Misch put back in the rotation. I don't know if he'll be a good starter, some relievers can't translate their success to starting (see Ryan Madsen of the Phillies, great reliever, but his experiment as a starter last season was an unmitigated disaster), but Misch was so dominating in AAA that I think the Giants owe it to themselves to see if he can do it as a starter, which he had been for his whole career until very recently.

Now with the injuries and this shutdown, our rotation is reduced to Zito, Cain, Misch, and Correia. There is talk about starting Atchison, but why not throw a bone to Hennessey and let him start? He, like Correia, has been a good soldier and did the relief thing, but at heart they are still starters. Plus, he has been horrible as a reliever recently. Maybe as a starter, he'll get an adrenaline rush that gets him back on track. Just a thought, particularly since it looks like Walker and Wilson at the end of the game right now, there's only middle and long relief plus mop-up work left to do.

It won't hurt to have another starting option, particularly if the Giants do trade a starter from the rotation. Plus if he does well in his starts, he could become a tradeable commodity as well, he has pitched nicely the past two seasons as a reliever and then would also has appeal as a starter. And if he stinks, then clearly his arm is tired and we shut him down too. Seems like a win-win to start him.

Which is unlike starting Atchison. He's a long time AAAA pitcher, getting up there in years, being 31. Of course he should dominate AAA, he's so much older and experienced. I don't see much win in starting him, other than giving him a big thrill. And even if he did well, it would not enhance his trade value, as he has no trade value.

Not Misching The Strike Zone: A Nice First Start for Misch

Wow, that's about as good a start as I was hoping from Misch. He has had stellar stats as a reliever the past two seasons, so I was hoping for a pretty strong strikeout performance and he did not disappoint: 5.0 IP, 7 hits, 2 R/ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR. That is only a PQS of 3 but one more IP with no HR and it would have been a PQS of 4 and a DOM start.

I know I've been pumping up Ortiz for the starts but if there must be a 5 man rotation, I think I've switched sides, just put Ortiz in the bullpen and start Misch. However, I still prefer the Giants going to a 6 man rotation by adding Misch and Ortiz to the rotation. With so many games played in a row, adding the 6th starter is like an off day for the 5 man rotation. And with the double-header in Pittsburgh, then everyone will be pitching no different than usual, it would be like the times there is no off-day and they have one less day of rest in between starts.

But man, 8 K's in 5.0 IP, I love the strikeouts, put him in the rotation already, I want to see the young guys pitch. With Lincecum, Lowry and now Cain pitching very well in consecutive games, if Misch can continue to pitch well, that is 4 good starters going for us the rest of August. Plus whatever Zito can do - he has done well at the end of the season before, so who knows?

And Ortiz, I'm hoping he does well enough that a desperate playoff team will offer a good prospect for him. I like Russ but we need more prospects. Hopefully he can pitch well in August and we can sell him for a prospect before the trade deadline.

Two Birds With One Stone

Nice trick of the Giants too, they put Aurilia on the DL to bring up Misch instead of sending down Davis. And Rich was injured so that is their perogative, but I would guess that his injury normally is not something that would put him on the DL, plus this saves the Giants money, Aurilia's total salary is tied to plate appearances.

Then again, they kept Durham around when they could have DLed him too and use Frandsen instead. Perhaps they are hoping to showcase him for a trade and get some prospects for him, particularly since he appears to have started hitting again.

Morris Traded With No Cash!

Amazingly, the Giants have traded away Matt Morris to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Rajai Davis, straight up:

The Giants were looking for a team to take some of their high-salaried players, and the Pirates will pick up the remainder of Morris' $10,037,283 contract for this season. He is due $9.5 million for next season, plus a $2 million payment at the end of the season.

"Almost at the 11th hour we were talking to two other teams I would consider competitors in the playoff situation. Pittsburgh stepped up, not only to take on the player as is -- meaning the contract -- but the potential return," in Davis, Sabean said.

Apparently the Pirates liked how Morris mentored Cain and other young pitchers on the Giants staff and I guess he decided that it would help take pressure off their good young starters.

Rajai Davis

He's 26 years old, hasn't done much in the majors. In Baseball America's 2007 Prospect book, he was the Pirates' 27th best prospect. For perspective, David Quinowski is the Giants 27th best prospect.

He is the prototypical Sabean acquisition of the past few years: tons o' speed. He's a CF who has stolen 224 bases in six minor league seasons. He had good bat control when he started, almost a 1:1 ratio for BB/K, but he started hitting the wall in AA and AAA, as his ratio dropped to about 50-60%. So he has hit for a pretty good batting average, about .280 the past two seasons in AA and AAA, and walks enough to get his OBP up to the .340-.350 level, which is OK if he can do it at the majors (but probably not). His minors career line of .303/.374/.402/.776 would be pretty good in the majors, but of course, it is the rare hitter who can hit as well in the majors as the minors, there is a leap in talent level they face in the pitchers they hit against in the majors that represents the higher level of difficulty that is the majors.

BP notes that he "is beginning to look like Chris Duffy Lite." That's not a great comparison and they also noted the Pirates penchant to develop 4th OF types and YET still didn't mention his name, they mentioned three other OFs. That's pretty sad. Minor League Baseball Analyst views Davis as a reserve LF/CF: "incredibly quick athlete does solid job as leadoff hitter, making contact and drawing walks. Lacks poower and can be overpowered by good pitching. Shows solid range in CF..." and notes his above-average speed. They rated him 15th best prospect. BA notes that "His average and plate discipline have suffered against more experienced pitchers since reaching Double-A. Davis spent the final six weeks of last season with the Pirates and didn't start a game, an indication the organization views him as a reserve outfielder long-term." They didn't really have much else to say other than chronicle his path up the system and to note his great speed. As noted above, they rated him 27th in the Pirates system.

So there is the hope that he will translate his good bat control - he's still around 85% contact rate even with his reduced BB/K ratio and that's good - into a good batting average, but at 26 years old, he's done as a prospect. He seems to be a Jason Ellison type who is much better at stealing bases. He's batting .321/.390/.459/.849 (but with .352 BABIP) in AAA this year, with 27 stolen bases (and 9 CS for only a 75% success rate; very much like Ellison; he was a little better in 2006, 45 of 58, or 78%).

Giants Thoughts

I (and other fans) were hoping that the Giants would be able to trade Morris for a nice shiny prospect somewhere, but apparently Morris killed his market value with that flop of a July that he had. He also had some unkind comments about the Giants once he learned of the trade, which added to his recent negative comments about the team.

He seems like a nice guy but he did us no favor pitching with a broken rib last year and he was like a rookie starting out his first season with us too, leading to a poor first season with us. Then those unprofessional complaints, he should be pointing his finger at himself: if he was even average during July, we might be under 10 games behind right now (11 games right now) but here's the EARNED runs he gave up starting with his June 17 start: 8 runs, 4, 1, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6. If he would have just given up 3 runs in those starts instead (4.50 ERA for 6 IP), we would have had 3 more wins right now, 8 games back, plus two other games would have been tied; assuming one is a win, that's 7 games back now.

Now I guess we will see Russ Ortiz get to start for us and hopefully, if he can pitch well over the rest of the month, we might be able to flip him too for another prospect, since he really wants to start and not relieve, which is where I think he can help us most. So he won't be here next season most likely and we won't get anything in terms of pick compensation, so hopefully he does well and can be traded. Then we could have Misch start in September and see how he does.

I like the way Misch had been pitching the past two seasons, I wouldn't mind seeing him start for us next year, in competition with Sanchez for the #5 spot behind Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Zito. If he loses, he can take a spot in the bullpen, he's been excellent there the past two seasons; if he wins, I think he could possibly outdo Noah Lowry, his rise through the system mimicked Lowry except that he outdid Lowry at every level until AAA, if I remember right, but I think he righted himself the next season and has done very well for us since.

This trade was nothing like what people were hoping for. But the good news is that the Giants now save around $4M this year that can be used next year, plus take $9.5M off the books for next year, which frees up more money to bid for free agents as needed. Given the talk about going young and accepting less competitive results in 2008, we might be able to save some money for free agents in the 2009-2010 timeframe instead, or do a similar pickup of a veteran where we take on salary and give up a non-prospect like Davis.

Plus, judging from the comments, Morris's time with the Giants was just about up, I wish him the best of luck in Pittsburg, except if he faces the Giants, in which case I hope he pitches like he has lately.

Ortiz Up, Sanchez Down

It has been reported that Sanchez was optioned to AAA to make space for Ortiz. Bochy noted that Sanchez's future is as a starter but that he will remain a reliever this season, most likely. Too bad, I was hoping they would just let him start down there and get ready for next season.

It was noted that Sanchez needs to work on his breaking pitches, both his breaking ball and changeup, because he lost command of them and needs to improve his location, but that he still has a good fastball. They will put him in a regimen similar to the one they are using with Pat Misch - who I would rather see up here in relief than Sanchez - where Sanchez will pitch two or more innings in relief every two or three days to give Sanchez a chance to gain consistency. It would also allow him to work on refining certain pitches or mechanics, which he couldn't do with the Giants since he couldn't tire himself out in case the Giants needed him in the game later that day.

Bochy thinks it's the best thing for "Sanchie" and that once he returns, he probably won't see the minors again. But he must gain command of his off-speed pitches in order to earn that promotion. For the season, he had an ERA of 5.52 in 14 appearances with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts in 14.2 IP, a stellar 12.9 K/9 rate that ranked third among NL relievers but horrible command, around 1.6 K/BB, when good relievers should be at least 2.4 and good starters, 2.0. Either way, Bochy thinks he's going to add a lot of value whether from the pen or starting.

Giants Thoughts

Again, I wish they would just start him and give Misch a try up here. Or at least give Misch a try up here while Sanchez works on his consistency - if Misch does well up here, then move Sanchez into the AAA rotation, if not, then they can go back to this plan and bring him back up when he is ready.

Of course, if we let Sanchez start, he won't have a spot in the rotation next year, what with Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Morris. So he'll be looking at breaking into the 2009 rotation, probably with Morris's option not being picked up, otherwise if it is picked up that would mean 2010 and his prospect status will dim. So perhaps this could be why they are looking at him mainly as a reliever right now, because they don't have a spot for him right now in the near future.

I would rather let him start in AAA and do as well as he can. If he can do very well in AAA and make himself one of the top pitching prospects, he would be a very valuable trading chip, whereas a reliever, even at the major league level, would not be as valuable, in my opinion, even one striking guys out at a 12.9 K/9 rate.

Or he could make someone who is in the rotation now, expendable in a trade and net us even more perhaps. However, I view Cain and Lincecum as untouchables, and Zito isn't going anywhere as long as Magowan controls things, so that leaves Morris and Lowry. If both can continue pitching like they have been this season, they will be very valuable indeed.