Your 2016 Giants: Big Six Top Giants Prospects

I sometimes post a Big Six Giants prospect list on my blog, but my answer to the Giants prospect chat will have to substitute for it this season.  I like to read through the books and discuss why I like the top guys, and build my arguments why I think they are the top 6, but that is going to take a lot of time, and I like to get it done before Opening Day, and I just don't have the time.  So this time, I'm just going to fan boy about the system.

Your 2016 Giants: 40-man Roster Gets Filled

The Giants added eight pitchers to their 40-man roster, filling it full with the following prospects:

• Ty Blach
• Clayton Blackburn
• Kyle Crick
• Ian Gardeck
• Adalberto Mejia
• Steve Okert
• Jake Smith
• Chris Stratton

Per SFGiants.com:

Six of the additions were ranked among the organization's Top 30 prospects: right-handers Kyle Crick (No. 6), Chris Stratton (14) and Clayton Blackburn (21), as well as left-handers Steven Okert (9), Adalberto Mejia (12) and Ty Blach (20). Also added -- and therefore protected from next month's Rule 5 Draft -- were right-handers Ian Gardeck and Jake Smith.

Reports by:

• Haft
• Pavlovic
• Baggarly

All good reads, as usual.

ogc thoughts

Congratulations to the new 40-man players!

First immediate thought is that some trade will happen in the next few weeks, probably by Winter GM meetings, definitely by the time when arbitration-eligible players would be non-tendered, because the 40-man roster is full, and the Giants are planning on adding at least one free agent starting pitcher, if not two, plus they said they are looking for a starting LF, and they also might be interested in players non-tendered by other teams.

Baggarly also noted the possibility of non-tendering one or more of our arbitration eligible players, noting Yusmeiro Petit and Hector Sanchez.  I would be surprised if Sanchez is, but the speculation has been swirling around Petit for a while now, so I would not be surprised if he's gone before the non-tender deadline via a trade.

A trade to get the players the Giants desire seems very possible.  Evans has already noted in at least two off-season press conferences that the Giants think that they might be able to add an upgrade to our pitching and/or our outfield via a trade.  As I noted in my previous posts, the Giants don't have enough money to get their upgrade #2 starter (and this is the opinion of many other people regarding securing a #2; I personally believe that Leake is capable of being that #2 starter for us) as well as sign Leake, who Evans committed to trying to sign in his last press conference (the Crawford signing).  So a trade is the most likely scenario for obtaining that second pitcher, assuming that Leake is the first pitcher.   And especially if the Giants somehow signs an ace level starter like Greinke or Price or Cueto, that would pretty much prevent the Giants from signing Leake unless they go over the penalty threshold, and would make a trade the most likely way to avoid the penalty and get that second starter.

Thoughts on pitchers:

• Ty Blach
• A crafty lefty, he lacks the overpowering stuff that teams like to see in a pitcher, but he has made it all the way to AAA and been able to do well climbing up one level at a time.  One thing I've been leaning on as an analytic device is how a player performs in the league while being younger than the league, especially significantly so (at least a year younger).  Recent studies have shown that players who can hold their own in a league, while younger, tend to have a greater chance of making the majors, as well as doing well in the majors.   This is a theme that will recur in my comments below.
• Blach was 2.8 younger than the average AAA player, yet his stat line was at or better than average in a number of categories.  One stat that I think carries better upward is BB/9 and while the average was 3.3 in AAA, he had a 1.7 BB/9, significantly better.  That helps him make due with a subpar 5.1 K/9, leading to a good 3.00 K/BB.  Because he's a SP, he's been building up his IP, and he had 165.1 IP last season, so he looks like he can be a good innings eater at minimum in the majors.  And given our age and history of injuries with Peavy and Cain, we need backups in AAA.  I don't think he's top of the list (Blackburn currently is, and if two SP are acquired, perhaps Heston becomes top of the list, if he's not traded away; more on that later) but good depth to have in the minors should a disaster happens again with multiple injuries and/or lack of performances.
• Clayton Blackburn
• Kind of a bookend to Blach, Blackburn is a crafty righty (a rarer breed in that this term is hardly ever used), however, he does have some MLB velocity, low 90's and can reportedly crank it up to 93 MPH on occasion.  There has been some controversy over how high Blackburn can really throw, as there has been reports of mid-90's heat at times early in his career.  The way I view it is that he's been a pitcher's pitcher since we drafted him, much the way the Giants have been operating with Beede, asking him to not use the high heat as much and focusing more on inducing weak contact and keeping the pitch count down, and so while he can throw heat, he's been choosing not to, because he don't need to in the minors.  That's part of the reason why I like him more than the ranking services have, I think he can hump it up as necessarily once he reaches the majors.
• Even without that uptick I expect, he has performed great as he has risen up the ladder of the farm system, and continued to do well in 2015.  He had a 2.85 ERA (league 4.73 ERA), 1.293 WHIP (league 1.420 WHIP), and about average in most peripherals, but most importantly, significantly lower BB/9 with 2.3 BB/9 (league 3.3 BB/9), which is a skill that I think translates better as a player moves up a level.  That led to a very good 3.09 K/BB (league 2.2 K/BB).  
• I think that once he makes the majors, he will just get better and better, adjusting to the league, much like how Cain and Bumgarner have gotten better and better.  It is not like he has no prospect cred, he did make BP's Top 100 in 2013.    Oddly, to me, though, he is currently only ranked 21st on the MLB.com's Giants Top 30 list.  I would have him in the Top 5, if not Top 3, because I think he is that close to making a big impact at the major league level.
• Kyle Crick
• Speaking of Top 5, Crick just missed, as #6 currently for the Giants.  He has been a highly ranked prospect before, making even the Top MLB Prospect lists as well (MLB.com, BP, and BA have ranked him in their Top 100 lists previously, and as high as the 30's in 2014), but took at least a step (if not two or three) back this season, going wild enough that the Giants moved him into relief.  I believe that they did it in order to reduce the stress on him and to have him focus more on his mechanics than have his confidence swirl down the drain as he struggled with starting.  But it seems that most prospect hounds have given up on him and deem him a reliever going forward.
• I still think that he has the potential to be a top of rotation starter.  Look at his starts in 2015 to start the season, he had a lot of good starts (using Game Score, most of his starts were good, at or above 50) and he did that a lot in his previous seasons too.  Something happened at the end of May and suddenly he just couldn't get through a start well at all, so I see this as a temporary thing that he should get over.  And with the ability to pitch consistently in the mid-90's and rear back and get into the upper 90's on occasion, he still has the velocity teams drool over.
• Of course, he still has a lot to work on.  Consistency is what I would note, look at his career starts, he has had a lot of starts where he struck out a lot and walked very few, but then the bad starts would creep in there and his overall numbers turn out really wild looking.  But it's a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde thing, he needs to be more Dr. and less Hyde.   In any case, still too much talent to risk losing via Rule 5 draft.
• Ian Gardeck
• He was a surprise to me (he's not even on the MLB.com's Top 30), but looking at his numbers, not so surprising anymore.  While he was old for his league (24, +0.9 vs. average), he had a 10.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.33 K/BB, and 1.158 WHIP.  They were all vastly superior to the league averages.   I think it came down between him and Agosta, and Agosta was just too high in some other key stats, even though his K/9, BB/9, and K/BB were about the same or better than Gardeck, and they were the same age.
• Adalberto Mejia
• He has been a highly touted prospect in the Giants farm system for a number of years now, but fell a bit on the Top 30 because of a number of new prospects added in the past year or two, and is now 12th.  I have not been as impressed but he definitely was worth rostering.  He was only 22 YO in 2015, -2.8 years below the average age, yet he had a 2.45 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, and 2.11 K/BB.  He repeated AA, partly because he played there the previous season and did only OK (but remember, he was 3.8 years younger in 2014) and partly because he was caught using a drug that is a common ingredient in weight loss (he's on the bigger side) that is not allowed by the MLB.   If he's playing a shortened season anyway, just have him repeat AA since he wasn't all that great there in his first try.
• While his overall stats are not impressive, they need to be adjusted to account for the fact that he's so much younger than the competition in the league.  Thus, his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 are high because of that difference in experience/development, and his K/9 is low for the same reason.  Yet, in spite of his disadvantage, he was much above average in ERA, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, plus about average in BB/9, K/9, and K/BB.  
• And he's still only 22 YO, so there is still some development and learning he can do.  He operates in the 91-95 MPH range, with sinking and tailing action, which is pretty good, so I'm not sure why he's not getting more K's.  He has repeatable mechanics that enables him to throw strikes consistently.  Should reach the majors in 3 years, which is how many options he has (or perhaps he has 4, the MLB sometimes give that extra option when a player is signed young, but the rules are arcane and I'm not exactly sure, so I went with the lower number for a conservative stance).     
• Steve Okert
• While his numbers in 2015 was not that great, as he struggled for the most part mechanically until August, he pitched well to the end of the year, as he greatly reduced his ERA, WHIP, H/9, and increased his K/9 and K/BB.  Also, even with his struggles, he was 3.8 years younger and still about average across his stat line, and much better ERA and K/9, significantly so K/9.   
• Showing how good he was in the past, MLB.com still has him ranked 9th in the system despite his problems this season.   This is most probably because MLB.com profile notes that "he owns a pair of plus pitches in a 92-94 mph fastball that tops out at 97 and a sharp slider that peaks at 87."  That's two plus pitches, and his cross-body delivery helps him get out LHH, suggesting that he could at minimum be a decent Loogy in the majors soon, and, given his good history previously, could be an Affeldt type who could handle both RHH as well as LHH (he was ahead of Osich previously; if he can regain his abilities to get our RHH, we could have two lefty relievers who can get out both LHH and RHH).
• Jake Smith
• It was a breakout season for him.  Joe Ritzo noted  that Smith "has an electric mid-90's fastball/cutter combo."  He was not much of a prospect before, doing well in certain aspects but he has been significantly older than the leagues he's been in as well.  I think he was a borderline candidate relative to Biagini and Agosta (and MLB.com ranked Biagini 28th, but neither Gardeck, Smith nor Agosta are on it now), and won out because he greatly improved in his BB/9, from a very poor 4.7 BB/9 in 2014 to a great 2.2 BB/9 in 2015.   
• Still, 25 YO, +1.9 years above average, so I think the tipping point for him making the roster relates to his superb 12.6 K/9, which continues his good performances in this area previously, and his now great 2.2 BB/9, which leads to a great 5.62 K/BB, which is another factor in him getting placed on the 40-man.  The 2.35 ERA also helped as well.  
• Chris Stratton
• As a 1st round draft pick, there were a lot of expectations placed on him.  Unfortunately, he had barely turned pro when he was struck by a batted ball in his head, suffering a season-ending concussion and, as we have seen with all the news on concussions in recent years, recovery is never linear nor a guarantee.  So it has been very hard for prospect hounds to get a good feel for him.  I think I've been more on the positive side than most, as many have wrote him off during the years after.  Still, ranked 14th by MLB.com in Giants farm system, and that is because of his plus fastball, normally 88-92 MPH and above average slider.
• Here's why I have liked his performances.  While he has not lived up to expectations, my studies of draft picks have found that not all first round picks should have the same expectations.   Once you get beyond the first five, then the first ten, the odds of the pick making the majors is actually pretty low.  Stratton's range where he was selected is at 4 to 1 against him ever being good in the majors, and perhaps as high as 9 to 1 against, depending on the depth in the draft that season.  So I think people have placed too many expectations on him, they have been spoiled a bit by Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner, other first found picks.
• In addition, while he has not done all that well, and poorly at times, I think a key thing to remember is that he's actually been young in almost every league he has played in, and younger relatively as he has risen, he was 2.8 years younger than the league in 2015, and yet if you look at his stat line, he's about average for the league.   
• Add on top of all that is his building up of arm stamina, as he's up to 148.0 IP in 2015, he's in a similar situation to what I described above for Blach, as he looks ready to take a back of rotation spot - and I would place him ahead of Blach overall (so it would be Blackburn, Stratton, Blach currently).   Though I would note that both Beede and Mejia looks like they should be ready to jump ahead of Stratton and Blach by mid-season, and I would watch Phil Bickford, Sam Coonrod, and Jordan Johnson, as they might leapfrog multiple leagues in 2016, plus Chase Johnson showed some good stuff in 2015 as well.   

Rosterbation

The 40-man roster is full now and there are no one I would call marginal enough that dropping him would not hurt some.  Not that long ago, I would have counted Heston and Parker as easy calls for DFA, so caveat anything I say relative to those misses.  I guess, per my discussion above, Smith and Gardeck might be on the edge, but you don't discard pitchers with over 10 K/9 easily and without some regrets.

Still with 25 pitchers on the 40-man roster and the need for a starting LF and possibly another backup OF, something will need to happen among the pitchers to open up spots, because there are few position players who look like they can be DFAed (Hector Sanchez perhaps, given all the talk by beat writers) or traded (I don't think the Giants want to trade Susac, but he is a big trading chip since most prospect services thought that Susac was ready for a starting catching job last season, except that Posey had a lock on the position).

Trade Thoughts

As I noted first, given that the roster is filled now, and at least one free agency signing (Leake) is expected, if not two or three (another SP and a starting LF), trades are probably going to be the way the Giants will plan on clearing space in the 40-man roster, particularly among the 25 pitchers on the roster.  Some might be swapped to bring back someone the Giants can leave off the 40-man, like when they traded Conor Gillaspie.

To get a good SP, in terms of someone to pair with Bumgarner, you are going to have to give to get.  I know the prospects who they would have to give up in order to get a pitcher that good, but I don't know if the Giants even want to make them available in trade, as they might be on their rumored "Do Not Trade" list (and some were just acquired in 2015 and per CBA, not tradeable right now):   Panik, Duffy, Susac, Arroyo, Fox, Blackburn, Beede, Bickford, Mejia, Coonrod, Jordan Johnson, Okert, Law, Crick, Williamson, Parker, Suarez, Miller, Marshall.   And as noted before, Evans stated in recent press conference that while teams are asking for Panik or Duffy, the Giants are not looking to trade them.

And really, look at the history of trades under Sabean/Evans, the vast majority of them have been guys with minimal or no MLB experience, and the vast majority of them have not been one where the Giants regretted losing the player.   So I would not expect either Panik or Duffy to go unless the Giants get an offer that they can't refuse (you have to leave wiggle room as bait to other teams dissecting what you publicly say, so I don't take that as a negative with regards to the Giants intent regarding keeping them, it is much like when Sabean said that both Cain and Lincecum were on the table, because you never know if another team makes an incredible offer, but it is not likely to happen, nonetheless).

If I had to chose someone to trade, I would say Mejia since I've not been all that impressed, but most services think a lot of his prospects and once ranked him in the Top 100 prospect list.   I like Heston and would not trade him, but he certainly has trade value, and again, to get value, you have to give value, and in the Giants case, it will be more quantity than quality.  Coonrod is another who has a good statline, but which I'm not sure how good he is.  And Crick I really like, but his struggles with walks could make him available.  
Others who might also be available, but I see more as additional pieces, to fill out a trade, off the 40-man are Stratton, Blach, Gardeck, Smith, Broadway, Hall, Gregorio, Guerrin, Petit, Hanchez, Adrianza.  But I've not been the best in discerning who is on on the "Do Not Trade" list or who would get dropped off the 40-man list, so I could be missing something somewhere.  So it should be an interesting off-season as we learn what the Giants really think of some of their prospects.

Your 2016 Giants: 40-man Roster Moves

Beyond the Aoki non-option, I realized that I should mention other roster moves that had been made recently.  The Giants outrighted Juan Perez, Nick Noonan, Jackson Willilams, and Brett Bochy, which opened up spots for guys the Giants brought off of the 60-day DL, which was necessary once the World Series was won by the Royals (Congrats!), allowing Joe Panik, Andrew Susac, and Hector Sanchez back on the 40-man.  Juan Perez was also brought off the 60-day DL, then was waivered and passed through.  Oh, and I recall that Kevin Frandsen was released as well, at some point.

It appears that Perez was placed back on the AAA roster after passing through waivers.  No news on what is happening with Noonan, Williams, or Bochy.

Your 2015 Giants: End of Season Presser

The Giants held their end of season press conference on the Monday after the last game.   Unfortunately, none of the beat writers wrote up the transcript of what was said, nor was the full video made available by the Giants or CSNBA.   The Giants did provide a summary video that seems to capture a lot of what was reported by the beat writers and CSNBA did have a number of snippets, which perhaps, altogether, might be the entire conference.

• Haft's report
• Pavlovic's report
• Chronicle's report
• Baggarly's report

Note:  I was going to work on this earlier but then my back went out with a massive sneeze - I was crawling around on all fours for the next two days, walking around like a 100 year old for another week, still dealing with the pain still - and so apologies for taking so long to get to this.

Your 2015 Giants: Big Six Prospects

I've tried in prior years to discuss prospects, and so again I'm trying.  I honestly don't think more than 6 prospects at any time is ever going to make the majors, and Christy Mathewson was nicknamed the Big Six (after a famous fire engine company in NYC), so I've named it in his honor in my blog posts so far.

But in recent seasons, more than six were interesting, and so I would at least mention ones who looked interesting to me in some way (honorable mentions).  And I've never liked the format of combining by some combination of closeness, or potential impact, so I'm going to break them up in this post.  Also, I'll mention interesting players for both pitching and hitting.

Your 2014 Giants: MiLBA 2014 Arrived!

Happy First Day of Spring Training!  I just got my Minor League Baseball Analyst annual for 2014 and wanted to share.  And Haft reported on his blog that Sandoval looked real good (for him), and Pavlovic also reported that Sanchez learned his lesson and that Hudson is fine physically, running and doing everything without thinking about it, and is nearly 100%.

Your 2013 Giants: The Best Minor League Rotation: San Jose

I was inspired by Shankbone's post on the rotation.  Plus, there were great quotes on some of them in a recent Sabean interview (Pavlovic).

Mostly, BA, in their round up on each of the minor leagues for 2013, had all five members of the San Jose rotation in their Top 20 ranking of prospects in the California League (here, scroll down to Cal League).   Here were their ranking:

• #3:  Crick
• #6:  Escobar
• #10:  Mejia
• #15:  Blach
• #20:  Blackburn

No other team had their entire rotation in their league's Top 20 ranking, though the Blue Jays came close in the rookie Appalachian League with four pitchers, but their top guy was 6th and I'm not sure if any were relievers.  Diamondbacks had three pitchers in the Northwest League.  Padres had three in the Midwest League.  Marlins had three in Florida State League.  Padres had three in Texas League.

Other Giants making a league's Top 20 list include:

• #2:  Arroyo (Arizona Rookie League)
• #14:  Mella (Arizona Rookie League)
• #18:  Jones (Arizona Rookie League)
• #8:  Chase Johnson (Northwest League)

On top of that, these guys dominated the BA Giants Top 10 ranking as well:

• #1:  Crick
• #2:  Escobar
• #4:  Mejia
• #8:  Blach
• #10:  Blackburn

Crick was rated with both the best fastball and best curveball, showing how advanced he is.  Clayton Blackburn had the best Changeup.  Ty Blach had the best control.  (and I would note that Derek Law had the best slider; plus FYI, Brown was considered the best athlete, Adrianza the best defensive infielder).

Here is the Giants entire Top 10 prospect list for 2014:

• #1:  Kyle Crick (best fastball and curve)
• #2:  Edwin Escobar
• #3:  Chris Stratton
• #4:  Adalberto Mejia
• #5:  Mac Williamson
• #6:  Christian Arroyo (best hitter for average)
• #7:  Heath Hembree
• #8:  Ty Blach (best control)
• #9:  Joe Panik (best strike-zone discipline)
• #10:  Clayton Blackburn (best changeup)

Stratton was surprisingly high on the list at #3.  Apparently his scouted talents are still highly ranked and his struggles there were written down due to his recovery from his concussion in 2012 and his learning curve related to the work the Giants were doing with him with his mechanics.  Given Panik's struggles, I was surprised to see him still above Blackburn, who I highly rate, but perhaps that is because the scout's view of Blackburn is not very positive, many think of him as a back of rotation starter, whereas I think he's at least a middle rotation guy, if not higher.

Here are the Sabean quotes from Pavlovic:

Edwin Escobar (Sabean said he’s likely headed for Triple-A): “Escobar has been asked about quite a bit, which is good. He’s right on schedule to take the next step and have a baseline of innings for being called up, or if he’s not called up he’ll have 185-plus innings at the end of next year. He’s a strike-thrower. He’s very aggressive in the zone.”

Kyle Crick: “Crick kind of had a chopped up season. Whether it’s him or any prospect or almost any pitcher in that (fall) league, sometimes the stat line doesn’t tell you the best story. He had real good, inconsistent stuff. The power to his stuff was impressive.”

Adalberto Mejia: “It’s just about overall maturation. He’s a big-bodied guy who is still learning his delivery, balance in his delivery.”

Plus a couple more on other prospects, since Sabes noted it:  

Derek Law: “Obviously was dominant and didn’t give up a run (in the AFL) and it really turned our heads because it by and large is a hitters’ league … I’m really interested to see what he does against Major League hitters in spring training. He’s got a breaking ball, being that hard overhand curveball that you don’t see. The action is almost like a splitter.”

Andrew Susac: “I think we all agree that he’s got a chance to be a frontline catcher. He had a real good fall league. He’s got to clean up some things, concentration behind the plate from pitch to pitch. He needs to work on his shifting and his blocking but that’s true for any catcher as they go through the minor leagues.”

ogc thoughts

So my title lied, not just about the best minor league rotation, but other minor league info as well.

Wow, I never looked before for this, only a team's fan would notice, but that has to be a pretty rare thing to happen, to have 5 of your top prospect pitchers to not only be in the same league, but also rank among the best in the league that same season.  Blackburn just made it in at 20th, and I think that he's really talented and was hurt by his poor showing in Stockton (3 horrific starts there; his numbers otherwise were in line with his 2012 stats in Augusta adjusted for a hitter's league).

Crick was in BA's Top 100 last season, if I recall right, so I expect him to stay in it for 2014.  I wonder if Escobar will get into the ranking as well.  I don't think any other prospect will make it on for 2014.

Nice comments from Sabean on a number of prospects.  He expounds a little more about why the Giants like Escobar, though not a lot.  Same for Crick and Mejia.  Funny that Law was rated with the best slider by BA, and yet Sabean points out his "hard overhand curveball that you don't see.  The action is almost like a splitter."  Biggest bit of info was his thoughts on Susac:  "I think we all agree that he's got a chance to be a frontline catcher."  

Plus the Pavlovic blog also noted this on Hanchez:  "People look at him as a potential frontline catcher."  

As much as the Giants made a point that Posey is their catcher, I have to hope that once Susac or Hanchez show enough to be a frontline catcher, the Giants move Posey to another position (hopefully 3B, pushing Sandoval to 1B and Belt to LF), with the duo being co-starters.  It makes no sense to keep Posey there long term once there proves to be a viable starting catcher, the wear and tear on his body is tremendous, and the nicks and pains of the catching position can only hurt his ability to stay consistent offensively, where his value is most prominent, particularly since he's been mostly just average defensively as a catcher since coming back from his ankle injury.

I understand needing to make that message known today, in support of arguably their biggest star player, but in the best interests of the long-term success of the team, he needs to move off the position within the next 3 seasons, before his 30 YO season (he's 27, 28, 29 next three).   That fits time wise with Susac and Hanchez, they probably won't be ready until 2015 at the earliest, but if continue to develop, should be ready by 2016.   With the hints that Sandoval might be extended, that move would cause a three player shuffle, but Posey can't hit like he can and earn the money on the back end of the deal if he's crippled playing catcher.

Good Timing:  Need to Replace Pitching

Something I discussed, I think, on Shankbone's, is the Giants need to replace pitchers in the pitching staff over the next 2-3 years.   Here are the guys 30 and over right now:

• Lincecum (30 YO season in 2014)
• Cain (30 YO in 2015)
• Vogelsong (36 YO)
• Hudson (38 YO)
• Romo (31 YO)
• Affeldt (35 YO)
• Kontos (30 YO in 2015)
• Casilla (33 YO)
• Lopez (36 YO)
• Machi (32 YO)
• Petit (30 YO in 2015)

That's 11 pitchers who could be in the pitching staff in 2014 season, out of 12 on the 25-man roster, with Bumgarner the only youngster among the bunch.

Luckily, they should not all break down and leave the team at the same time, some can and will last into their late 30's.  But even if just half of them need replacement, that is 5-6 pitchers needed at the major league level.  So while we should count our lucky stars that we have so many young pitching prospects rising up quickly, I must remind all of us of the Big 3 we were counting at about 10 years ago, in Foppert, Ainsworth, Williams.  Then there was Lowry as well.  So we might need each and every one of them to refill our pitching staff over the next few years, leaving no surplus to trade off.  Just keep that in mind when dreaming of trades.

Your 2013 Giants: BA Top 10 List and Mayo's Top Giants

Yeah!  Baseball America has just published the Giants Top 10 prospect list for 2013.  That means that they will be revving up their books to send out very soon (I've already pre-ordered it!).  Here is the list:

1. Kyle Crick, RHP
2. Joe Panik, SS
3. Chris Stratton, RHP
4. Gary Brown, CF
5. Mike Kickham, LHP
6. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
7. Heath Hembree, RHP
8. Francisco Peguero, OF
9. Roger Kieschnick, OF
10. Adalberto Mejia, LHP

Also, Jonathan Mayo, the MLB.com's prospect guru, has released his Top 100 prospects in baseball list, and two Giants made it:  Crick at 86 and Brown at 100.

Just enough time to get this out before my lunch hour is over, yeah!

Sickel's Prelim 2013 Top 50 Hitters and Pitchers

John Sickels recently published his Preliminary 2013 Top 50 Hitters and Pitchers lists on his blog.

No Giants hitters made the list, but two Giants pitchers did:

• #36:  Kyle Crick, RHP
• #38:  Clayton Blackburn, RHP

He also reviewed his 2012 lists (Hitters 1, Hitters 2, Pitchers 1, Pitchers 2)

Here are the descriptions he gave on the one Giants prospect that made last year's list:

• 20) Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+: Hit .279/.347/.385 with 40 walks, 87 strikeouts in 538 at-bats for Double-A Richmond. Stole 33 but was caught 18 times, way too many for a guy with his speed.

Checking it Twice: Giants 2012 Top Prospects

I had previously blogged about some other Giants top prospect lists here, so since I just got Baseball America's 2012 Prospect Handbook, I thought I would write a bit more.  They do provide their Top 10 list here, but the book covers the Giants Top 30 in detail in their book.

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Gary Brown, OF 2. Tommy Joseph, 1B/C 3. Heath Hembree, RHP 4. Joe Panik, SS 5. Francisco Peguero, OF 6. Andrew Susac, C 7. Eric Surkamp, LHP 8. Kyle Crick, RHP 9. Ehire Adrianza, SS 10. Hector Sanchez, C

But the rotation is getting more expensive to keep together, and the Giants' pitching factory under vice president of player personnel Dick Tidrow is beginning to stall. They sacrificed their only elite pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, to the Mets for Beltran—who became a free agent after the season and can't bring draft-pick compensation because his contract forbid offering him arbitration.

The current strength of San Francisco's system is in position players, led by speedster Gary Brown and longball threat Tommy Joseph. Brandon Belt, who graduated to the majors in 2011, could make an impact for years to come. Scouting director John Barr added two polished college hitters in the 2011 draft, with St. John's shortstop Joe Panik in the first round and Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac in the second.

However, the Giants don't have another can't-miss position player like Posey in the system. He's determined to catch again and club officials will relent to his wishes, but they've talked about moving their best hitter out of harm's way in the not too distant future. Catcher may be the richest position in the system, with Joseph, Susac and Hector Sanchez.

The farm system was a priority for managing partner Bill Neukom, who was forced out by other partners in a palace coup in September. In the new management structure, club president Larry Baer was elevated to CEO and will report directly to the investors. The reorganization wasn't expected to impact Brian Sabean, baseball's longest-tenured GM with his current club.

ogc Thoughts

BA's list stands out for their putting Tommy Joseph #2 on their list. Most had him 3-4, though he was as low as 9 in MiLBA's Top 15 list. So it is not a huge outlier, just one beyond, but BA is certainly the highest rank of Joseph. Shows just how powerful his potential is right now: he improved defensively where people now think he can stay at catcher, and he showed a lot of power despite being one of the youngest players in the league.

They are also the only list to include Brett Pill anywhere on a list.  I understand why a list might not include him, he certainly has a lot to prove, despite his stellar 2011.  Still, he did do very well in both AAA and the majors last season, and he did it while suffering from his disappointment of 2010 and his dropping off the 40 man, and then no team even wanted to take him at virtually no cost to the other team, other than a 40 man spot.  Remember, Frandsen in his disappointment, sulked (and publicly bad-mouthed the Giants) his way off the team.

I think he's one bad injury from getting him some Pill-sanity, though at a much, much lower level of insaneness (no magazine covers for him).  Not that he'll be a star or even necessarily good, but he plays great defense at 1B and looks like he can hit OK but with good power, I think he could certainly outdo what Huff did last season, and be an average 2-WAR player, which is extremely good value for a scrub on the borderline between the 25 and 40 man rosters.  He'll be a right-handed Travis Ishikawa without the angst about performing, and be a great bench player for us over the next 6 seasons, plus maybe shine a little when an injury or poor performance lets him start for a while.

They are also the only major list to have Chuckie Jones still on their Top 20.  He disappointed in 2011, but injuries was part of the reason for that.  I am still hopeful, he's still very young, plenty of time for adjustments.

They are also the only major list to not like Josh Osich highly.  Some had him as high as 7th, but BA ranked him 23rd.  I guess they are more worried about his health and his ability to return from it than the other lists.  Because, if he's anything like what he was before he was shut down, we are talking about another Dirty, a lefty who can hurl in the mid-to-high 90's MPH.  In fact, BA thinks that he's capable of being a #2 starter:  if healthy...

They are also not as enamored with Clayton Blackburn's stellar 2011 professional debut.  They only see him as a middle rotation (#3-4) starter at best.  But his numbers were so stellar, I would lean towards the irrational exuberance than rational practicality.

Thought I would end with a look at Gary Brown's overall prospect rankings.  BA had him ranked #39 out of 100 (unfortunately, Tommy Joseph was ranked 100th until Cespedes signed, pushing him to 101st;  Hembree also got some talk for the bottom of the list but did not make it).  BP had him #18 on their 101 list.  Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had him #48.  John Sickel's had him #43 on his Top 120 list (He had Joe Panik #117). Minor League Baseball Analyst's two authors had him pretty close, #24 and #26.

And BA's top editors also had Brown up that high, which I found out in the book.  Jim Callis ranked him #29, JJ Cooper #39, Will Lingo #26, and John Manuel #25.

I've also seen a bunch of blog posts lamenting the loss of Zack Wheeler.  Most of the ranks I've seen had him in the 40's, more mid-to-high 40's, though BA had his 55th in 2011, falling from 49th in 2010 (which is a steeper fall than it seems because a lot of prospects above him either graduated or fell more themselves).

What people don't recall is that once you get past the Top 15-25 prospects overall, there is a lot of variableness in whether prospects make it or not.  Following is a list of past 40-ish prospects:

• 2009:  Jordan Schafer, Angel Villalona, Tim Alderson, Andrew Lambo, Kyle Blanks, Josh Vitters
• 2008:  Ian Stewart, Lars Anderson, Jeff Clement, Josh Vitters, Daric Barton, Matt Antonelli, J.R. Towles
• 2007:  Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jacob Mcgee, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Fields, Ian Stewart, Bill Rowell, Travis Buck
• 2006:  Homer Bailey, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Rogers, Adam Loewen, Adam Miller, Brian Anderson
• 2005:  Eric Duncan, Brian Anderson, Conor Jackson, Michael Aubrey, Dan Meyer, Josh Barfield, Yusmeiro Petit, Homer Bailey

I'll note here that I'm doing this from memory right now, so maybe a few of the above worked out better than I remembered, but generally, these prospects (and as you can see, some stayed in there in consecutive years, boosting their farm system's "status" as a good farm system, whereas the Giants top players - Lincecum, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey, Belt - were maybe on BA's top list, at most, one time in their time as prospects; heck, Sandoval couldn't even get on his own team's top prospect list, let alone the BA overall top list).

Still, just because Wheeler is on the list again this year is no guarantee that he's going to ever make it.  The Giants, by trading him, effectively voted that he will not make it, at least as a good starter.  He might eat a lot of innings and be an OK middle rotation starter in the majors, but as a study by The Hardball Times concluded, teams usually know their prospects better than other teams and tend to trade away the prospects that they have deemed to be not keepers.  Given the Giants brain trust's (Sabean, Tidrow et al plus Barr) stellar record in trading prospects and not giving up a good, above 2-WAR per season player, if I had to bet, I would bet that Wheeler not reach his potential and be a good starter, with a low ERA.

And as a sad reminder for us of how prospect high rankings are no guarantees, in 2001 and 2002 Jerome Williams was ranked #19 overall for us and in 2003 Jesse Foppert was #5 (! just behind Jose Reyes and Joe Mauer and ahead of Brandon Phillips, K-Rod, Scott Kazmir, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, B.J. Upton).  Heck, Boof Bonser was #29 in 2002,  and Kurt Ainsworth #30 in 2001.

Now, to some of the points made in the quote above from BA.

First, it notes that the Giant's pitching factory is beginning to stall.  That is because they have selected position players in 3 of the past 4 drafts, whereas before, the Giants had mostly spent their first round picks on pitchers.  Those picks are the picks with the highest chance (roughly 10% when you are contending) of finding a good, above average player.

So that is why they are "stalling", not because they are failing to find pitching while actively looking for pitching, but just because they are working on finding good position players in recent seasons instead of pitching and thus not finding as many pitchers.  If you stop looking for pitching as intently as you did before, I view that as less a failure and more a change in strategy/tactics.  While I think some of the 2011 picks could pick up the pace (Crick, Osich, Blackburn), I expect the Giants to put more emphasis on pitching again going forward, unless there is clearly a "must pick" BPA position player who falls to them.  And, still, most of their picks in rounds 1-10 were pitching, even in 2011,

Second, there are two reasons why the Giants don't have another can't miss position player in the system currently.  First, those are very hard to find when you are winning.  You have a much greater chance when you are losing a lot of games and getting the great draft picks.  Second, the Giants did have one in Belt, but due to injuries, they decided to rush him to the majors and hope that he could figure things out.  Unfortunately, he didn't.  But had he followed normal development, he most likely would have spent 2011 in the minors and be eligible to be ranked as a prospect for 2012.  For all intents and purposes, Belt is still considered a high potential prospect, but according to baseball rules, he cannot be considered a rookie anymore, which is the criteria that BA uses to decide who to cover and who not to follow.

Thirdly, the Giants made a priority of the farm system before Neukom took over.  They spent all that money on Villalona, RafRod, Posey, and Wheeler, over-paying for each of them.  They also went over slot for Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner, Wheeler, among others prior to Neukom.  They also brought in John Barr, both to emphasize position players (not announced but clearly a change in the drafts so far) and improve international scouting and development (that was announced as one of the reasons to get him).

Let's put it this way:  the Giants are currently staffed by a lot of farm products who were all acquired long before Neukom took over, ever so briefly, as managing owner, the main effects of his influence on the draft will not have a visible effect on the team until the draftees from 2009-11 start showing up and taking starting positions.

Thankfully, in any case, the CBA no longer allows a team to punt a pick, so even if they were tempted to even think about doing that again, the Giants will be required to select and presumably sign their draftees going forward, Neukom or no Neukom.

And while the removal of Neukom was described as a "palace coup", I would note that the Chronicle's Insiders reporters, Matier and Ross, reported that the reason he was forced out was because he was asking for a $10M annual salary.  As much as I liked Neukom as managing owner and miss having him in charge, if there is any truth to that rumor, I am glad he was pushed out, I would much rather the team spend that money on players and development than paying the CEO.

Lastly, most rankings of the Giants farm system have them rated very low.  While that is probably true (I'm not going to get into that), that is missing the whole content of why they are in that position today.   They are mostly in that position today because of a number of reasons.

First and most importantly of all, they have been a winning team for 3 seasons now.  When you are a contender, you get lousy first round pick position and it is very difficult to find a good player drafting that far back.  You can't help but have a bad system when you are winning for any length of time.  Let's put it this way:  the A's would have had an even worse farm system today, probably, if they didn't trade away most of their All-Star players and picked up a boatload of prospects.  Think of how good a farm system the Giants would be ranked to have had they traded away, say, Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval?

Secondly, they have been very aggressive, and mostly successful, with moving their top prospects into the majors.  If the Giants prospects were like other team's, Posey, Bumgarner, and Belt could still be in the farm system, hoping that this would be the year they break out, but because they are talented, highly ranked in the Top 100 and giving their team the appearance of a strong farm system.

For example, Homer Bailey was ranked #48 in 2005, #38 in 2006, #5 in 2007, and #9 in 2008, boosting the Reds' overall ranking and making them viewed as more of a successful farm system, and yet the Reds are still waiting for him to break out.  Belt was only on one list, 2011, Posey and Bumgarner 2009 and 2010, Lincecum only in 2007, Cain highly ranked in 2005 and 2006 (he was #91 in 2004).  So who has had a better farm system then?

Thirdly, the Giants are actually doing OK, when you examine the circumstances.  Given their poor draft position in the past couple of drafts, they are actually doing well having a highly ranked prospect of Brown's caliber in their system.  Heck, they would look even better right now if Belt had been kept in AAA in 2011 instead of being brought up a lot due to injury needs.  Given that Belt is still a prospect, just not by definition for any of the Top Prospects lists, how can their farm system be accurately represented if Belt is not included as part of their farm system?

So there are all sorts of problems with the methodology of how farm systems are ranked.  And I don't think that there is a way to come up with one measurement that says it all.  I think one good way to see how well the farm system is doing is by looking at how many of the starters are farm products.  By that measure, the Giants farm system is looking pretty good compared to most MLB teams.

People complain that the Giants have not produced position players, but neglect to realize that the question can be turned back to them if we ask them to name which teams have produced a better rotation than Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner from their farm system?  That's the reason why the Giants have not produced many position prospects, they have focused on producing great pitching prospects.

It is a trade off that many complainers ignore or slough off.  And if I had to chose between having an equivalent hitter or one of our great pitchers, I would chose our pitchers in a heart beat, pitching is the way teams dominate in the players, it is no guarantee, as my research showed, but it is a necessary ingredient if you want to have any strong and good hopes of going deep into the playoffs.  The complainers do not realize that demanding position players be produced means less pitchers, which means that they don't really understand that today's research says that if you want to do well in the playoffs, you focus on pitching and fielding, period.