These are just my opinions. I cannot promise that I will be perfect, but I can promise that I will seek to understand and illuminate whatever moves that the Giants make (my obsession and compulsion). I will share my love of baseball and my passion for the Giants. And I will try to teach, best that I can. Often, I tackle the prevailing mood among Giants fans and see if that is a correct stance, good or bad.
Friday, April 03, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: Extensions and/or Promotions for Sabean, Bochy, Evans, and Shelley
Monday, April 16, 2012
Your 2012 Giants: Bumgarner Signs 5 year Extension for $35M
The details:
If he doesn’t qualify for Super 2 status, he’ll make $750,000 in 2013, $3.75 million in 2014, $6.75 million in 2015, $9.75 million in 2016 and $11.5 million in 2017.Shea also noted that according to SFX, which represents Bumgarner, this is the biggest guarantee for a pitcher with just one-plus years of service time.
If he does qualify as a Super 2 (by being among the top 22 percent in service time among players with two-plus years), the numbers would be $3 million in 2013, $5.5 million in 2014, $7 million in 2015, $10 million in 2016 and $12 million in 2017.
He gets a $1 million signing bonus with a $1.5 million optional buyout.
Bumgarner is signed through his first year of free agency, and the deal includes two option years: a club/vesting option for 2018 and a club option for 2019.
Baggarly noted in addition:
The contract also includes two club options for $12 million in 2018 and ’19, and both have escalators based on the Cy Young Award. If Bumgarner wins the Cy Young at any point during the contract, both option years would be worth $16 million. If he has a second- or third-place finish in the Cy Young balloting at any point, the options would be worth $14 million.
Two more things about the option years:
The Giants have a buyout of $1.5 million that can apply to either option year. And the first option can become guaranteed (not a player option) if Bumgarner throws 200 innings in 2017 or 400 innings between 2016-17.
Doing the math: If Bumgarner is a super-two, he maxes out both options and the Giants exercise them, the total value of the contract could be worth as much as $70.5 million.
Oh, and Bumgarner has a limited no-trade clause in which he can name eight teams annually to which he cannot be dealt. The no-trade takes effect this season.
And two more things about the contract in general:
Bumgarner’s $560,000 contract for this season, which was signed in March, remains unchanged. Except he gets a $1 million signing bonus in the extension, half of which is payable this year and half next year.
Monday, April 02, 2012
Your 2012 Giants: Cain Signs 5-Year Extension, new contract
The basics of the deal:
- Old deal torn up so that Cain can have no-trade protection for the 2012 season as well as the rest of the contract, but he still gets "only" the $15M for 2012.
- He gets 5 additional years at $20M per season extension, signing him to his 32 YO season.
- He gets $5M signing bonus (which basically makes his 2012 salary $20M, probably not by coincidence).
- There is an option 6th year (or 7th if you count the current contract) for 2018 (33 YO season) that is a team option at $21M. However, the option year vests into a player option at $21M if he meets 2017 IP target that basically means that he is healthy at that point of the contract. He gets a $7.5M buyout from the Giants if they decline the team option. If he earns the option year via vesting, he gets a $7.5M buyout if he declines the player option (in other words, he gets at least $7.5M :^).
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Deadline Approach: Cain Cain Cain, Fans in Pain
As seen in many negotiations run in public, like strikes or union deals, or closer, in signing draft picks, things don't get done often until just before the deadline. I still believe that this extension deal with Cain will get done.
Most importantly of all, that don't fit his behavior from before. Both of his prior long-term extension deals were not deals for top money. He could have pushed for more, like Lincecum did with the Indians, hence why I think Lincecum is the harder one to sign of the two into his free agent years. And he seems like the same guy he was when he came up.
So if the rumors of the Giants latest offer is close to the truth - 5 years, $90M - I still believe that Cain will sign for something in the 5 year, $90-100M range, with possible kickers of one and maybe two years additional at $20M each, both vesting if he pitches enough innings, similar to Zito's option year. That would bring Cain to the 9-digit level his side craves and that is the key here to understanding the lack of movement and the leaks of information regarding the negotiations.
Cain has new agents - his agents joined a new agency and turned over the reins to, I'm guessing, more senior and experienced negotiators in that agency. They want to get every dollar out of the stone. If you give up everything early, they will assume you have more to give and continue to haggle for money. So had fans been in control and gave Cain the reported 6 years, $120M contract that they were rumored to be asking for, his agents would probably say, whoa there, that's nice, but we actually wanted more than that (agents are very smart - so are GMs - and they never give the other side exactly what their demands are, instead many floats balloons through willing media representatives), and negotiations would now begin on a 7 year, $145M contract (because by then he should get a raise).
It never ends. Until the end, at the deadline.
So I assume the "impasse" means that the Giants are near where they are willing to pay but Cain's new agents want to make a big splash by securing the first 9 figure contract for a right-hander since Kevin Brown, and attract other top hurlers to join their agency by pointing to that shining example. So with a couple of days left, I expect there to be movement and the Giants would finally move their final piece to move on the chess board, and with time running out, there will be a glorious press conference announcing that both sides had to give a little, but after kicking some tires around, they were able to come to a mutually agreeable contract, with both sides winning.
Of course, just my opinion, but given Cain's history of elbow issues (at least three reported instances in his pro career, and who knows how many unreported) and his agent's duty of fiduciary responsibility, they cannot in good conscience advice Cain not to sign a contract in the $90-100M range because that could all go away with one snap of something. Just look at what happened with Ryan Madson, lucky for the Reds it was only a one year deal, but what if he was signed to a 4 year deal?
The bigger issue, to me, has always been Tim Lincecum, followed closely by Bumgarner. Lincecum has asked for top dollar at every opportunity. Not to say it wasn't undeserved, but still, that is his behavior. And Bumgarner has deep family ties that I don't see how he don't end up with the Braves after his 7 years with the Giants.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Sabean and Bochy get contracts extended thru 2013
In the press conference that announced the deal, they made a number of comments about the Giants future course (Baggarly, Shea, Haft):
- The plan is to earmark most of their money for their pitching staff, then use the remainder to improve the offense. People rag on the offense, but as I'll show soon, a large part of that decline was the loss of Posey, but people conveniently forget about abnormal, unlikely to repeat events like that. "There won't be any big splash. Our pitching is our gold standard. We have to make sure we take care of that commodity first," said Sabean.
- Evans noted in the meeting that he has just started talking with Lincecum's and Cain's agents, exchanging ideas and some numbers, mostly talking broadly, so they are not very far into the process yet (due to "so many other things").
- They also have a large number of arbitration-eligible players: Ryan Vogelsong, Ramon Ramirez, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Nate Schierholtz, Pablo Sandoval.
- Once they take care of the pitching, then they will see how much money is left in the payroll and see which free agents will fit in that. But they don't anticipate a household name, per se, no sticker shock type of play.
- The payroll has been bumped up to $130M (I believe it was around $125M last season, plus there is always the mythical rainy day fund).
- What they are looking for is better balance and flexibility. Depth is important and thus flexibility with the roster is important. (ogc note: rumors are that the Giants are kicking the tires on Jerry Hairston, Jr., who can play MI as well as COF. I view him as the successor to the role envisioned for Mark DeRosa, though I'm not sure how good he is defensively; DeRosa was great defensively and good offensively).
- Appears that re-signing Carlos Beltran is a longshot. He was asked and agreed that an AL club (with the ability to DH regularly) could probably offer Beltran a longer-term contract than the Giants were comfortable with offering to a player with bad knees in his mid-30's. Still, Sabean noted, "He is a consideration but term will be an issue with anybody we pursue, whether it's him or anybody else. We have a game plan with what we consider a reasonable length." (ogc note: I would note here that they were comfortable with giving Franchez a 3-year contract, which, fortunately for us, he turned down for a two-year, and he's been even more injured prone than Beltran. People need to remember that as business-people, you don't want to negotiate publicly nor give away your hand. The Giants might be willing to give 3 years, but you don't give that away, particulalry in public, it is better if you play poor, act like it is possible that you will pass on signing, show some reticience in re-signing, as negotiations will always be one where each side has to give on something. You can't make a fair offer publicly and not have it bite you in the ass later in private negotiations).
- Baggarly: "Sabean made it clear that the extensions will not be his focus when he arrives at the winter meetings in Dallas on Sunday. He is looking to improve the offense via trade or free agency, with the outfield being the area most in need."
- About SS, Sabean was impressed with the strides Brandon Crawford made in the AFL. He could possibly be annointed the starter, though it was noted that they could carry his questionable bat if the offense improves elsewhere, and it was noted that he did what was asked to do in AFL, getting high marks regarding the strides he has made (ogc: everyone has a questionable bat, that is why in the NL the 8th place hitter don't hit for much, so he has a low bar to make. Plus the pitching makes the bar lower. I think the offense is good enough as is to handle his bat, particularly because he was actually pretty good at avoiding strikeouts last season, so I think it is just a matter of adjustments and experience before he starts hitting. May as well start in 2012 as the starter).
- About Belt, Sabean praised his work in the Dominican Winter League, noting Belt's adjustments and his willingness to go there, accept their challenge (he was not intending to go to Winter League, Giants asked him to, partly to make up for development he missed in 2011 because of injury and sitting on the bench). Moises Alou (GM of the team Belt played on) gave positive reports on Belt. They noted that he was playable in the OF, though they realize that 1B is his best position.
- About Ross, he is still up in the air, Sabean noted, "not sure" when asked about him. (ogc: that is consistent with before, Sabean noted that Ross could come back to the team later, if available.)
- Sabean, according to Baggarly, left the general impression that he might not make another move to help the offense. Sabean: “I think we have developed enough choices including our young players in the mix and our arbitration eligible players as far as the price point that’s suitable. I think we’ve created enough food for thought and flexibility... Health is always an issue. We hope the guys who were banged up last year come back to form and do their part and pull their weight.” (ogc: I agree that another move is not necessary to help the offense, it should be good enough to win right now, but obviously any additional buffer to risk mitigate another hitter failing to perform would be great.)
Giants Thoughts
This is what I thought should happen, though I am sure that there are legions of Giants fans crying into their garlic fries right now. I am very happy right now that Sabean and Bochy got extended another season plus a team option for another season.
Sabean deserves to continue being the GM, both for putting together the team that we have today and for guiding the team well in the rebuilding phase during the losing. Bochy, as I noted in prior research, is a unique manager, capable of bringing up his team by anywhere from 6 to 10 wins, every other season, that is a WAR of about 3-4 a season, which some sabers price at $4M (and higher) per win, or $12-l6M per season. That's a bargain, as I assume Bochy probably don't make anywhere near that per season.
I was disappointed by Haft's dig at both Sabean and Bochy when he noted that others have done more than either over their tenure than they have. First, sure, there are those who have done more, but that ignores the cycles that Baer talked about in the press conference when praising the two of them. You have to accept that there will be times when a team is losing and rebuilding. It also ignores that Bochy was handicapped by the Padres poor payroll problems that regularly rolled around and decimate the good team he had, then was hurt by the Giants rebuilding period at the tail end of the Barry Bonds era, where the teams weren't good enough to win yet. Every team has a life-cycle of rebuild/compete/repeat that has to play out, nobody is going to be a winner all the time, that is rarely done in the majors, if ever.
Second, and more importantly, Sabean has the team set to win throughout the 2010's and be the team of the decade that I've been predicting for the past 3 years. The pitching is all pretty set up, they only have to lock up Lincecum and Cain right now to set the team up nicely to do well over the next 4-5 years or so. The middle of the lineup looks to be great with Sandoval, Posey, and Belt, and the top of the lineup will hopefully be great with Brown and Panik up top in a year or two.
And with our great pitching and defense (just got the latest THT annual and it has the Giants team defensive runs saved figures there for the past few years and they have been one of the best defensive teams in the majors), what a lot of people don't realize is that it creates a low run environment in almost every game the Giants play in, thus making even a poor offense a good enough offense to win a lot of games with. But people are stuck in the mindset that you can't win with a poor offense and thus think that Sabean is lame for not doing more.
He is doing what he should be doing, securing our future dominance by getting Lincecum and Cain signed longer term. The whole team structure for winning falls apart without Lincecum and Cain up top (and with Bumgarner). I have no doubt that we can get Cain signed to a 5 year contract that might even have a slight home discount. I expect Lincecum to want fair value (i.e. no discount) but given the talk about liking shorter deals, I would be OK with a two year deal with an option year, then focus on getting him signed to a longer term deal next off-season.
There has been no mention about Bumgarner, but given the animosity that probably was engendered when the Giants summarily renewed his contract at their price for the 2011 season, I would hope the Giants look into making Bumgarner happy, it don't have to be a contract to buy out the rest of his pre-free agent years, though I would like something like that, but I think they should show him a little love in the contract negotiations this off-season. And I've mentioned Posey and Sandoval getting signed up long-term as well.
All in all, a well deserved extension for both Sabean and Bochy. Bochy in particular for bringing up the team and making it competitive for the playoffs, when by Pythagorean, by all rights they should have been scuffling around .500 during the 2011 season. But Sabean too, deserves credit for trying to keep the team together in 2011 for another run, but when things got bad, made the big move to trade for Beltran, plus jettisoned both Tejada and Rowand, when they proved to be detrimental to winning. Plus, by keeping the pitching staff together, that enabled the team to survive poor hitting and numerous injuries, and still be competitive enough for .500, by Pythagorean, when most teams losing a key player like Posey for the season would be sunk the moment he went down.
Monday, March 29, 2010
I'm More Than Ecstatic: And Cain Makes Three - Cain Signs Extension
As Brian Sabean noted, "It's our window. ... To have these guys for [2012] now. The comfort in knowing that they are going to be in Giants uniforms helping us win games is a statement in itself. It seems fitting. It seems the right thing to do it. Having said that, if we didn't get business done in spring training, we would have halted [the negotiations]. We didn't want it to be a distraction." Sabean noted that they started the talks during the off-season, then started in earnest with everyone at the start of March. Sabean also noted, "We have cost certainty and the fans have the comfort of knowing these guys are going to be in Giants uniforms helping us win games."
Baggarly had a quote with Cain regarding the deal on his blog and Schulman in his article, where Cain discusses how happy he and his wife were with the deal. Cain said, "I think it shows some appreciation of all the things I've done for the Giants, but I also think it shows the way they run the organization. It's a great situation where we could do something for both sides. Me and [wife] Chelsea are more than ecstatic about doing this."
Baggarly wrote in his blog:
So the Giants could be looking at a dynastic staff, which is partially what motivated Cain to re-up. He’s not the type to seek his own glory as a No.1 elsewhere. He’s never begrudged “living under Timmy’s shadow” the past couple seasons. On the contrary, he said he loves the competition.Baggarly noted in the article:
“Obviously, the best I got to see were the big three in Atlanta,” Cain said. “We saw it in Oakland with Zito, Mulder and Hudson. It builds us all up. I feel we all share the leadership every time we go out there and pitch.”
“That’s what we’ve been talking about all spring training, that all of us love playing together and really feed off each other. We’ve got great chemistry and that shows with them being able to do these deals. They see this core group and they want to keep these guys together.” "
Cain said he had no reservations about signing away his first year of free agency. He hadn't thought ahead about testing the market, nor was he motivated by the thought of going to another club where he could escape Tim Lincecum's shadow and be the staff aceSchulman wrote:
"When you see a group of pitchers stay together like that "... it builds us all up," said Cain, citing the 1990s-era Atlanta Braves and the Oakland A's staffs with Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. "I feel we all share the leadership every time we go out there and pitch."
Lincecum and No. 4 starter Jonathan Sanchez won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season.
"It's amazing to watch these guys throwing seven shutout innings every night," Wilson said. "Every player strives to be part of an organization that values you. "... You work even harder to maintain it and go for the next one. I'll try to be a Giant for the rest of my career."
How wide could this window open for the Giants? Sabean was hesitant to say it could match the unprecedented run the club made from 1997-2003 behind Bonds.
"This group would really have to step it up," Sabean said. "Having said that, maybe last year was the beginning of a run the pitching staff will help to carry. We'll have to figure out more offense in and around this."
They will need much of that offense to come from the farm. The Giants forecast to have limited financial flexibility, particularly in 2012 when Cain and Zito will make $35 million and Tim Lincecum could be due another huge number in arbitration. Aware that his rotation could become a budget killer, Sabean said he's hoping the organization's young hitting prospects will pan out.
As for the risk of investing in pitching?
"It's not like we're giving four- or five-year deals," Sabean said. "We're past that. They're short-window deals that you'd expect both parties would make out."
Giants ThoughtsIn all, ownership agreed to shell out $43.5 million above its previous commitments to Cain, Affeldt and Wilson. The team gains cost certainty while risking guaranteed money to pitchers who might get hurt. The pitchers enjoy that guaranteed money against the risk of leaving more dollars on the table in arbitration and free agency. ...
Cain also said he and his teammates want to be together well into the future.
"We really feed off each other," he said. "We feel we've got great chemistry with everybody. We love this, the fact that we'll be able to play with Wilson the next couple of years, Zito, Timmy, all these guys."
Cain compared the continuity of the Giants' rotation now to the Braves' trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, and the A's big three of Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder.
Wilson, whose 79 saves the last two seasons rank fourth in the majors, said, "Oh, sweet," when told all the deals were done. He pledged to work harder than ever so he can earn another contract "and try to be a Giant for the rest of my career."
Dynastic staff is what I've been talking about the Giants rotation. I'm been writing for a while now about how pitching is our future (since the Giants said that Bonds was no longer our future, one of the Mercury columnist wondered what next and I noted that it's clearly pitching) and how powerful it is to have a pitching rotation that can dominate the other teams in a series, when they have a high PQS DOM%. And now we have all the major pieces covered to 2012 plus still control Lincecum and Sanchez to 2013.
Some are not happy because of the restrictions on the payroll budget due to these guaranteed monies. But at some point, you have to realize that this was coming along with the success of our pitchers, that at some point they are going to get paid big money. And that the Giants management realized that.
I think that Neukom's stance with Sabean regarding the budget, that he should not feel constrained by the budget when bringing baseball recommendations to Neukom, shows that he understood this budget dynamic, punctuated by Zito's huge contract and then Rowand's contract.
But people forget that by 2011, the year some are worried about the Giants payroll, the Giants only have two more seasons of Rowand's salary and three more of Zito (highly unlikely his team option will be picked up nor that he earn the vesting by averaging 200 IP over any stretch). And that by the end of the 2011 season, that's only one season of Rowand and two of Zito remaining, making their contracts easier to trade off if the Giants pony up some money to push their final cost to the other team down to more reasonable levels. And who knows, if Rowand is as improved as he appears to be this spring - after finally figuring out that he should get in shape to earn his money - and if Zito can continue his great second half of 2009 into 2010 and 2011, the Giants could make the trade easily, again with some money added in, but which would save a huge chunk of money for our young players due raises.
In addition, Neukom should not offer to extend the payroll if he wasn't serious, because that would be seriously bad PR for Sabean to say this publicly and it don't happen and we end up trading someone good just to save money. Reportedly they were kicking the tires on Manny Ramirez when the D-gers were trying to re-sign him, which would have meant a bump in the budget of up to $20M that season (I think they were a little under budget at that time).
That is a serious bump of money to allow, even for only one season, so Neukom has a sugar daddy somewhere he can tap into easily for that big coin because from my observation of how much money he supposedly made off Microsoft stock, money he has invested in owning a big chunk of the Giants, and donations he and his wife have made to universities, he should not have a lot of money left (well, plenty for you and me but not to cover that) to cover such a big bump upward.
Other Giants News and Thoughts
Speaking of Neukom, there was a nice article on him on sfgiants.com recently. He talked about this plans for the Giants, both present and future, and about The Giants Way. Part of this way is that they are investing in helping their prospects and players stay in better shape and conditioning, hiring staff and buying equipment:
"The baseball's got to speak for itself because there are so many variables," he said. "We're investing in homegrown talent. We have this very clear strategy, which is better conditioning, better prepared, more clear-headed people playing baseball, and we want to get to a sustainable level of exciting baseball played the right way. After that, we'll have to see what happens."
Neukom raved about the team's mini-camp in January and how much he was impressed with the players' condition when they arrived for Spring Training. ...
"We're at a stage now where we are strong enough to think we don't have to rush [Minor League players] ahead of schedule," he said. "Traditionally, you think in terms of the best and most talented prospects, baseball people would want him to spend probably four years in the Minors before he was ready to come up and contribute at the Major League level.
"It varies from player to player and team to team. We don't want to be desperate. We don't want to rush kids ahead of when they should be coming up, and I think we're in that situation." ...
Neukom said he has spoken to fans and has answers for those who have questions about the team's approach.
"I tell them our goal is a medium-term, long-term goal," he said. "The immediate step was getting the Giants to play winning baseball and to build on that increasingly from homegrown talent and become the kind of team that contend year in and year out. Nobody can have a strict timetable on that."
Finally, we are working to get all our prospects in shape and a good state of mind to focus on baseball. One step at a time. And a great commitment to bulding up the farm system and using that as a key component of keeping the team strong now and in the future. Assuming the team continues to win, that means going after players who fell in the draft because of concerns over how much they want in bonus and paying much over slot for them (which they appear to have had no problem with previously, going way over for Posey and Wheeler) and going after the top Latin American talent out there, preferably hitters as they seem to be better bets relatively (and which is the way they have been doing it, as Villalona and RafRod are the two big signings plus the Giants were in on a couple of other position prospects as well before losing to other clubs).
In other news, Todd Wellemeyer should get announced as the 5th starter. Also, I heard Schulman on KNBR over the weekend (I really liked him on radio, I enjoyed that a lot, he should do a lot more of that on KNBR, I hope) and he covered his blog on the 25-man roster that I wrote about the other day. He made his point that the Giants don't want to put additional stress on their young starter's arm early in the season by giving them additional games, so Wellemeyer will be taking his 5th starter starts which means the Giants will need a long relief guy to be there, which in his thinking would mean Pucetas. And I agree that it is likely that Pucetas will win that role because of how well he had done in spring until his outing this weekend, which ultimately wasn't that bad as he recovered to give us three innings.
However, Schulman also noted that Henry Sosa is being given the opportunity to make the team - a good sign is that he's still with the team - and Sosa has experience as a starter but looks to be a reliever long-term because he's a high effort thrower who has been battling physical problems, and relief would put less stress on him. Sosa has had a great spring as well and would not cost the Giants a 40-man slot because he's already on it (unlike, say, Denny Bautista; the Giants do have two spots open now with the Frandsen trade, but Wellemeyer and Mota appear to have them locked up, Wellemeyer particularly so). So the Giants could decide to bring him up to be the long reliever and sent Pucetas down to AAA to be ready to start if we need it.
I think that is a strong possibility. Pucetas wouldn't be prepared to take a starter's spot if he's pitching long-relief for us. Of course, Bumgarner is probably the first line of defense there, and Pucetas could be sent down at that time to be prepared in case there is another need for a starter. But Pucetas did not do that well last season in AAA, he had a couple of good months early but overall was not that great, and in particular could not strike out very many hitters.
So he still has something to prove in terms of dominating hitters at a higher level, he could have been very lucky this spring (that is why scouting is so much more important than just eyeing the stats like I and others do - but then again, that is all that is available to me). I can see the Giants wanting to see him do well for a season in AAA and be ready to start for them as necessary during the season, while Sosa be our long-guy. That could lead to Sosa joining middle relief next season while Pucetas then take the long reliever role, assuming he does well in AAA this season plus beat out Joe Martinez next spring.
In addition, Baggarly noted that Fred Lewis has been complaining about a rib injury problem, so I smell an extended stint for Lewis on the DL, while the starting RF situation sorts itself out on the 25-man roster in the meanwhile. Schierholtz has been struggling - again unfortunately - and with Bowker's sudden surge (I would note that he wasn't doing that great until those few games, so it would seem odd that Bowker could win the position with just a couple of good games of hitting when not doing that great before), there has been a lot of news about Schierholtz still battling to win the RF spot, and now with Bowker's surge, the Giants might visit Bowker starting in LF while DeRosa starts in RF (which someone else noted DeRosa hasn't played any of this spring, but I would note that he played RF a bit in previous seasons - and well usign UZR/150 rating - and didn't get many/any starts in LF prior to this season, which hasn't even started yet).
Sabean also discussed extensively about Nate's struggles, which can't help him either. Still, that's life as a major leaguer, and the sooner Schierholtz gets used to all that, the sooner he can show what he got at the major league level. He needs to stop tinkering and just do the old rule of: see ball, hit ball, and not complicate it with whether to use batting gloves or not, and so forth.
In any case, if Lewis is on the DL, then the Bowker and Schierholtz (and Torres too I suppose, and maybe Velez too) situation will unfold and perhaps the Giants will put Lewis back on the 25-man roster and move someone else off, instead of trading him. Or by then some other team might be a bit more desperate for an OF capable of starting and give us a better prospect for him.
Friday, March 26, 2010
2010 Spring Transaction Lines: Extensions and Trade
Extensions
The big news is the extensions for Brian Wilson (2 years, $15M) and Jeremey Affeldt (bump up $500K this year, contract for $4.5M in 2011 plus $5M option for 2012 or $500K buyout). The key phrases are cost certainty (Wilson) and holding on to a good player (Affeldt's contract would have been over this season). The worry is that this would make it harder for the Giants to sign the hitter people think the Giants need.
People still worry about the lineup, but as I've been saying for a long while now is that a team built on pitching and fielding excellence - not goodness, but excellence - don't need much of a lineup to win with it. With Sandoval at cleanup (finally) in 2011, and Posey hitting 3rd, we basically only need average type hitters like Schierholt, Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa filling up the lineup in order to win with our pitching and defense.
Plus, looking over the spreadsheet that Lefty provided, we got 9 players costing around $80-85M, leaving 16 at roughly $400K, pushing it to $85-90M. That leaves roughly $10-15M if they bump to $100M budget, which with a better economy and fast growth from MLBAM should be doable, which could get a good hitter if one happens to be available.
And at some point, we have to take the leap of faith that Neukom will come through with the money as he says he would if Sabean makes the baseball case to boost the payroll beyond the normal range. I'm hoping he has sugar daddies whose pockets he can dip into when the time comes.
Frandsen Traded
Frandsen has been traded (Baggs, Hank, Haft) to the Boston Red Sox for a PTBNL or future cash. Hopefully we get a player, as I still think Frandsen could have done something, but it'll probably be cash. The good news for him is that he'll be with his good buddy, Dusty Pedroia, who he has worked out with for the past 6 off-seasons. And the Red Sox, while apparently doing it out of need as Pedroia is having wrist problems right now, wouldn't have gotten him if they didn't think that he couldn't be a good backup guy, and who knows, maybe give Frandsen a chance too, since there is a DH there as well.
Too bad. As I had ruminated somewhere, Frandsen's window of opportunity was the 2008 season and he blew it when he blew out his Achillies tendon. With Sanchez signed for two years and Noonan possibly ready by the end of that contract, plus Crawford and Burriss could be ready by 2011, and Rohlinger already annointed the next Greg Linton/Steve Scarsone, there was no spot for Frandsen anywhere, and he apparently rubbed Giants management the wrong way with his behavior previously.
Still, I think he can be a usable major leaguer. He hit well all the way up the minors - not great but good for each level - and he hit well in the majors the one time they started him regularly and gave him an extended opportunity (late 2007 season). His low strikeout rate and his walk to strikeout ratio was very good, indicative of a prospect who could hit in the majors. He appears to have a good baseball mind and reminds me a bit of Pete Rose toughness, the average type player with no obvious plus skill (except for the subtle bat discipline) but is fine is all aspects.
And those are the players that the Red Sox (and Padres and A's) like to pick up, the guys who hit well in the minors but were never given a real chance to show what they got in the majors. Hopefully Frandsen will get some sort of chance with the Red Sox.
Wellemeyer Pretty Much Annointed 5th Starter
It was reported a few days ago that Bumgarner has been sent down, leaving just Todd Wellemeyer and Kevin Pucetas battling for the 5th starter spot, but as noted by a number of sources (like Hank) Bochy has all but named Wellemeyer the 5th starter. Pucetas has done very well but when battling against a veteran who is not that old and had done well previously, he pretty much would have had to almost no-hit every appearance and strike out a ton of batters to beat out Wellemeyer when Wellemeyer has done as well as he has with a 1.35 ERA this spring.
Plus, Pucetas did not do well at all in AAA last year. Many a pitcher has had a great spring training and then sucked once he pitched in the majors. So there is no guarantee that he would have well had he won the 5th starter spot. Not that Wellemeyer is a guarantee, but when a player has done it before, it raises the odds greatly that he can do it again if pitching well. So Pucetas is looking at either the long-man role, which would not be necessary if the 5th starter isn't starting, or starting in AAA.
This is where the Frandsen story intersects with this story: Wellemeyer is a non-roster invitee and the Giants need to clear a spot on the roster to include him on the 25 man roster. And as I noted before, to open up a spot would mean dropping someone of value, it would be a cut that hurts at least a little. Frandsen being traded clears a spot.
Coincidentally, most of the reports about Frandsen opening up a spot also pointed out that the Giants might need two spots, one for Wellemeyer and one for Mota. So it looks like Mota is closing in on a middle reliever spot in the bullpen.
Wilson Bringing Out his Curveball, Finally
As Hank Schulman blogged, Brian Wilson, emboldened by (or perhaps felt the responsibility with) his new contract and status, brought out his curveball recently in a game. His curveball, which has been missing during his Giants career, was considered one of his plus pitches when he was drafted by the Giants. With him recovering from TJS when he was drafted, I guess he laid off the curveball (or was told to), plus he saw that TV show where Mariano Duncan showed off his cutter and he fell in love with it, thinking he can be like Duncan and just throw one pitch.
Good. That's a sign of a great player. He has great stuff, 100 MPH capable fastball, good cutter, good slider, and now he's bringing back his curveball, like Lincecum when he added a changeup last season, adding on a new pitch even though he was doing very well with what he already had.
This is unlike Rowand, who signs a huge contract with us but then takes two years to figure out that he should start working out in the off-season and getting into shape for playing the whole regular season. All I can say about that is that at least he is doing it now, when we have the chance to do something to get into the playoffs and maybe go deep into it with the pitching we have.
Luckily, we didn't need his bat that much the past two seasons, though it would have been nice last season as that could have gotten us to the playoffs and given us some playoff experience. But I'm not sure how far we could have gotten last year with the lineup we had. I think we should have a much better chance this season, particularly if we will be able to carry Buster Posey on the bench or starting during the playoffs.
Additional Cuts
Rotoworld.com reported that the Giants optioned Darren Ford to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels and Francisco Peguero to Augusta, plus sent Jesus Guzman and Tony Armas to minor league camp for assignment.
Ford has been the eye-opener this spring, hitting, fielding, and running his way into the hearts of Giants fans. Unfortunately, he's already 24 years old, having spent 3 seasons in Advance A-ball, so he's too old to be considered a good prospect, but if he does well in AA this year, and AAA next year, he would only be 26 years old in 2012 if he makes the majors.
People worry too much about whether a prospect is a good player or not. I mean, of course, we all want that, but we also forget that every team needs their OK players who can play OK at a position for us, while our good players lead the way to the pennant. While I wouldn't mind having a good player at every position, I know that's not realistic either, and if Ford can be a nice leadoff hitter who plays great defense in our enormous CF at AT&T Park, that would be a great and more importantly CHEAP addition to the team.
So, so what if he's old for a level, if he's showing something in spring training, that means he has something that is good enough, and maybe he can do well in AA, then AAA, then the majors.
The guy to look at long-term at CF, though, is apparently Francisco Peguero. The Giants really like him, just added him to their 40 man roster this off-season, and Baseball America ranked him 10th among Giants prospects for 2010. He'll be 22 this June, so he's getting a little old to be a good prospect at Augusta, but if he continues hitting like he did last season, he should move up to San Jose by mid-season. He's got some good speed, plus arm, so he's great defensively in CF, is usually able to put the bat on the ball (though like many, unable to take a walk), but that is OK if he is hitting to get on base (.304 career BA).