The Linceum Conundrum

Tim Lincecum is a free agent, and his future is debated vigorously by Giants fans.  His showcase, which he said would happen in January is so far MIA.  What should the Giants do, sign him or let him go?

ogc thoughts

Lincecum is probably one of the most divisive Giants free agents since probably Barry Bonds, and among pitchers, Jason Schmidt.  There are two main groups.  One is guided by how important Lincecum has been to recent Giants history, and the afterglow of his accomplishments, and the other is guided by the fact that Lincecum has been declining in production for the past four seasons, for them, he was the new Zito contract and now it's good riddance.  As usual, I'm with neither group.

All About the Rings

As long-time readers of my blog should know, my sole focus has been on the Giants winning a championship, period.  That is why I was angry about people who wanted to get rid of Sabean over the years, as I thought that he had a plan and was executing on it.  That is why I flipped from being "meh" about Bochy to loving him as I watched him ruthlessly ran the team in late 2010 season with the only goal of winning, egos be damned.  Now I'm a huge Bochy fan, he adds value through his ability to win one-run games, manage the bullpen to optimum effect, and improve the hitting of anyone joining his teams (research has shown this).  I look for qualities that I think are conducive to winning championships.

Now, the goal has changed, slightly, to winning their next championship.  Change is good in this case.  :^)  So my thoughts on Lincecum is focused on whether he can help the Giants win our next championship (and you know that it's coming:  Giants:  Team of the 2010 Decade!).

It has nothing to do with how appreciative I am of his Cy Youngs and his leadership in winning our first championship, and his ego-less performances that helped us win our second championship.  I will forever have a soft spot for him, he was a significant contributor to our first two championships!  But I guess I'm pretty ruthless when I think the player is no longer useful from a competitive standpoint (the Bill Walsh Principle of letting go players one year before he should, though in baseball, it should be modified, I think it's better to wait until you think he's done), I can separate the personal feelings for the person and his past from what he can do for us in the future, and if he's done, he's done, I'll thank him for past glories, but sometimes it is just time to move on.

Lincecum is Not As Bad as Thought By His Naysayers

However, I don't think he's done.  Many people understandably have been scarred by his decline over the past four seasons.  They see his declining seasonal stats, and they were ready to let him go after the first two declines, and after his $37M contract, they are waving buh-bye!  The thought of him returning is anathema to them because they think that him being around would prevent good young prospects from getting an opportunity.

But as I've been documenting over the past seasons, there has been a lot of good among the overall bad that Lincecum has done.  He was frequently one of our better pitchers, leading the way towards a good record. It wasn't like he was bad all the time and there was nothing redeeming about his performances, he just has to be handled differently. And now we know the reason for his declines:  his bad hips would eventually succumb to the regular grind of being a starting pitcher in Major League Baseball.

Bring Back Lincecum

Thus, I think it would behoove the Giants to resign Lincecum once they feel that he is healthy enough to expect him to contribute in 2016.   Not to a big contract, I think Lincecum at this point should be glad just to still be with the team (this appears to be something he appreciates and prefers) and if another team were to offer him a big contract, good luck and thanks for everything.

Whether it's to a minor league contract or to a low $1-3M contract, I think the Giants should pursue Lincecum (right now, only Marlins has openly stated interest, and the showcase is not scheduled yet, so a minor league contract looks more probable now).  People forget but Lincecum was a good pitcher, and often one of our top pitchers, during long periods from 2012 to 2015.  But at some points in the season, he just wasn't performing well, and he ended up with bad overall seasonal stats, which is what most people only see.   So it was not like Lincecum was horrible the whole time the Giants were throwing him out there, he was actually among our best pitchers for periods of time, before his physical or other issues (mechanics, lack of hitter knowledge) got the best of him.

Now with his hip operated on - and the surgeon stated that this should restore his velocity - this issue should no longer a problem.  Which means that he can be consistently good pitching for somebody.  And if he can be good, I think he would be perfect as our long reliever.

Could Be A Relief

I think that moving him into relief now is the perfect timing, as it appears that the grind of starting is what affected his hips, but now he can be a reliever and suffer less strain, throwing probably half the IP.  Some top pitchers transition like this at some point in their careers, with Eckersly being the biggest example of that, though obviously the gold standard.

And with his arm, he could probably pitch more frequently than other pitchers as he has a bit of a rubber arm.  He could contribute like he did in the 2012 playoffs, pitching multiple innings then coming back and pitching key innings in the following games, even spot starting.  Be a super-utility reliever.

However, he has stated that his main goal is returning to being a starting pitcher.  Right now, there is no space in the Giants rotation, so if he can get a starting job elsewhere, I'm OK with letting him go where his bliss is.  He would not be an improvement for us as a starter.

But if he was being smart, he would realize that it is the grind of starting that caused his body to fail him, and accept a move into the bullpen.  He's not getting younger, and he's in his 30's now, when the body will fail pitchers in other ways that are unforeseeable.  Why push it physically when you know that is the reason you were bad over the past four seasons?  The bullpen would cut down on the wear and tear on his body by a significant percentage, so it won't take as long for his body to recover.  He is not being realistic trying to be a starter again, though this stance probably works towards returning him to us, as I believe that few teams are interested in him as a starter.

Plus life does not end when you move to the bullpen.  And frankly, that is what every other team thought he was when the Giants drafted him, nobody wanted to take a risk on a pitcher with his short stature.  Many players find success as a reliever after being a mediocre or worse starter.  Examples include ex-Giants starters:  Salomon Torres, Jason Grilli.  And other ex-Giants, like Todd Worrell and Jeremy Affeldt.  Many MLB relievers are failed starting pitcher prospects.  Even his wildness would be acceptable if he can continue to strike out batters at a high rate and induce weak contact otherwise.

And this would extend his effectiveness by using him in key leverage situations.  As he has shown even in his diminished performances of the past four seasons, he can be very effective over long periods of the season, among the best in the majors, before his body failed him.  He was very effective over 50 IP in 2015, 100 IP in 2014, and in a similar range in 2012 and 2013.  Putting him in relief would enable him to be at his best at key moments in the game, instead of putting him through the grind of starting and have his body implode on us sometime in the season.   And it would fit the saber mantra of using your best pitcher in key situations, because when he's on, he's among the best.

Ruminations on What's Next

It is getting late for a January showcase.  It should have been announced by now, to allow teams make plans to attend.  But there is plenty of time before spring training in February, for example, the Giants pitchers and catchers are scheduled to attend spring training on February 17th, which is the earliest date that a handful of teams are having pitchers and catchers come in.  So there is still time to schedule a showcase in early February (but time is running out soon for even that).

Still, the fact that this target date has slipped suggests that Lincecum's rehab and recovery has stalled some in the past month or so.   And the longer he slips, the more likely other teams will move on and not keep a spot available for him.  The Giants meanwhile have already been publicly ambivalent about Heston being in the majors or minors and publicly open to Lincecum returning - even now, they have not publicly shut the door, as they did with Vogelsong - so there is an open position that Lincecum could be slotted into.  IF he is physically ready.

The longer the delay, the more likely he's going to need to be in the minors first.  If Lincecum has to start the season in rehab/extended spring training, the Giants probably will give him the best opportunity to make the majors, by noting their available long relief position, once he is ready, whereas I doubt any other teams will give him a lot of rope or promise.  His best opportunity should be the Giants, especially as the showcase slips.  So the later the announcement of his showcase, the more likely he just ends up continuing his rehab at the Giants facilities and get a spot on the 25-man roster once he is ready, shifting Heston to AAA.  

Heston ideally should be pitching as a starter, anyway (see how well he did until he tired out in 2015), and building up stamina that he clearly lacked late in the 2015 season, and which he lacked in the 2014 season as well.  He noted in spring 2015 that he worked on building up his stamina during the off-season, and hopefully he continues to build on that going forward.  Perhaps he could be ready to battle for Peavy's spot in 2017, assuming Peavy is not re-signed by the Giants (I assume he won't, not with Blackburn and Heston ready to battle for a spot for 2017 - and who knows, Peavy is injured a lot, they could be battling in 2016 already - plus probably Beede, Stratton, Blach, Mejia and perhaps Bickford, Coonrod, Johnson, Crick, among others).

But without improved stamina, a bullpen role is where he can shine best, because he was among the league's best (low 3 ERA) for much of the season, before his late season decline (and eventual shut down).   He had a 3.14 ERA at the end of July, still had a 3.34 ERA when he was shut down in mid-August.  However, he had a 5.92 ERA over his last two months, 4.88 ERA if you omit his last start, 4.58 ERA before he was shut down in mid-August for a while for rest, 6.75 ERA afterward (5.08 ERA without last start).   Still, after one start to get the cobwebs out on August 30, in his return from his rest, he had a 4.01 ERA over his next five starts before imploding in his last start.  So the potential is there, but he still needs more work on his stamina.