As reported by various outlets (Mercury's Pavlovic reports on Romo and Scutaro), Romo's return meant the Giants needed to clear a spot on the 40-man, and the one getting the axe was Angel Villalona, who was outrighted to the minors. Not sure of the consequences (seems to imply he was sent to minors with no recourse, nor danger of being claimed; tried to research, could not work out legalese) regarding Giants control of AnVil.
In addition, Scutaro finally got the surgery to fuse his spine, which will make life more comfortable for him going forward, but unfortunately, his career is now in severe doubt, as fusion generally has meant the end of an athletes career, from what I remember about the news report speculating on this mid-season. With a 4-6 month recovery period, at which point they can then start to evaluate whether he can even return to baseball, and the past prior record, it does seem like the end of Scutaro's baseball career.
ogc thoughts
As I noted in my other post, I'm happy to have Romo back. I had thought (wrongly) that his family might have pressured him to sign up with LA (OK, maybe not wrongly, but not as strongly as I had speculated), but he said the right things in the press conference today about returning to his gang of four (Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez), his band of brothers, and that he can't imagine not working with them or this organization that gave him his big break. He noted that he got other offers, including possibility of closing, but noted that the way he views it, anytime he's coming in, he's closing anyway, it's pressure time. Of course, we'll never know exactly what went down exactly, but he did note disappointment of not getting a third year, but is happy to make money that will take care of his family.
I was surprised that AnVil was outrighted, though not totally. He had a poor year in the upper minors and that is usually a deathknell to a prospect's career as he gets up there in experience, but I still thought that Heston and Parker would have been lower on the totem pole. I have a feeling once I learn more about the technical aspects of what it meant to outright him will help explain why him and not others. I still have hope for him, but right now it is looking like Duffy will start at 3B in AAA and Duvall start at 1B, so AnVil will probably be in Richmond again.
Thanks for the Rain Dance Marco
Looks like Scutaro's career, at minimum with the Giants but most probably his career, is over, so I would like to once again thank him for his contributions to the 2012 Championship. You can't say this all the time, but truly, without him being "Blockbuster" (his nickname with his teammates at the time, denoting how he was the blockbuster trade for the Giants given how well he hit for them), we don't win that championship. Invaluable component.
Some people like to point out that his contract was a waste (much like Huff's), but, really, there were no better alternatives at that time who looked like better replacements, but players notice when teams take care of their own or if they screw them in the back at the first chance (cough, Miami), and a team with a reputation of dumping their players (as the Niners got) will find it harder to keep their players, I think, or attract other players.
It's funny, but in our country, Wall Street is excoriated for being all about money and maximizing by dehumanizing the regular population, but I find that a lot of fans are like that as well. As well, they don't think about the consequences.
Sure, the Giants could have counted their lucky stars that Huff played up to his potential for us in 2010, and kicked him to the curb once we got that great production from him without paying him much. But he produced 5.6 rWAR for us, roughly around $23M per metrics, and that is exactly what we paid him, which is a great return on any free agent because the sad fact is that most do not even break even, most fall very short. And had he been dumped, who would the Giants have signed instead who could even dream of producing 5-6 WAR in 2011 without asking for a Brinks Truck to back up to their house? Fans would have been mad at the Giants.
Same with Scutaro. He produced 4.1 rWAR, or roughly $21M and that is roughly what we paid him during his time with us. And it was not like it was a massive overpay over the market, the Cards reportedly offered him roughly the same money, but the Giants went to three years with a little more money. And Scutaro produced a lot while playing for us in 2012, had his health held up, he would have been in the 2.5-3.0 WAR range.
If he had produced 2+ WAR in 2014 and 2015, his contract would have been considered one of the better free agent signings by the Giants, as he would have been paid under half of what he produced. As it was, the team roughly broke even, overall, and we ended up with a championship because of his contributions.
People can be very hard-nosed sometimes, I don't see why they would begrudge him his contract, given what he produced, and in this case, it was not his fault that his body broke down (I would point my finger at Holliday's slide starting the bad process in the spine). Or that Huff's mind broke down from the pressure of his contract.
So thanks Marco, and I hope you have as healthy and comfortable a life as you can, and thanks again for the contributions, especially towards winning the championship.
Peavy Needs a Spot Too
When Peavy is signed soon, he will need a 40-man spot as well. As I noted, Heston and Parker are probably the next ones to go when a spot is needed, but with the announcement of Scutaro's surgery, they most probably will waiver him instead, knowing that no team will pick up his contract, knowing that he won't be back until mid-season at the earliest, and possibly never again.
Showing posts with label Marco Scutaro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marco Scutaro. Show all posts
Monday, December 22, 2014
Monday, July 07, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: I'm Not Panicking ... Yet
Some are worried or dismissive of Joe Panik. He started out nicely, but then hit the skids, but has done better lately. Sabean recently said that nobody's doing well among the prospects who have come up, though that appears to be before his recent up spurt, I suppose that could have motivated him. Still, his batting line is nothing to celebrate. Or is it?
ogc thoughts
One thing I noticed was that his contact rate was superb during this stretch of poor batting line, so I thought I would dig a little deeper into his numbers. All SSS, so I'm not panicking yet, if anything I'm Paniking, as we'll see here.
He has only had 12 games, so there is nothing to really key on really, not enough sample data points. That goes for both bad and good, in spite of the poor batting line. BABIP can go wildly up and down in such small samplings, as we all know, so there is not a lot that can truly be said about his hitting.
For example, what has been masked by the poor hitting that initially followed his nice intro to the majors is that he has been hitting well lately. In his last 6 games played, he has hit .368/.409/.421/.830, but .350 BABIP. That is much better than his overall .257/.325/.314/.639 batting line. Of course, that BABIP is likely not sustainable, but that could be regression to the mean due to his 0-for-12 he put up in his prior 4 games. Or perhaps he was just lucky good now, and the before was his mean talent level. Can't really tell right now.
What we can say, and this bodes well for his MLB future if he can continue this, is that in 35 AB, he only has 3 K's but do have 4 BB's. That's a 91% contact rate as well as more walks than strikeouts, both of which only the best hitters in baseball can do.
According to Baseball Forecaster studies, hitters with above 1.0 BB/K ratios, on average, hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range, with 51% ending up above .300 and only 9% ending up below .250. And that jives with hitters with contact rate in the 90's, they normally end up hitting .270-.290. And combining his walk rate (10%) with his contact rate, again, roughly .280 hitter on average. On top of all that, his pitches per PA is at 3.80, which is on the good side, and hitters in his range tended to have high OBP, .347, which is pretty good.
These all suggest that he should be able to raise his BA up another 20-30 points, roughly, putting him around .340-.350 OBP, which would be pretty good to get in the #2 spot of the batting order.
What this reminds me of was Dustin Pedroia's first month in the majors, in his first full season in 2007. His batting line was horrible, but his batting peripherals were good, he wasn't striking out much, while walking a lot, much like Panik is in a little less than half a month of results. And given enough time, he worked things out and has hit very well.
Not that Panik is on Pedroia's level. Joe's ISO and SLG is not that good, and that is a key difference between the two, and I do not mean to suggest that they are similar level prospects. Panik is profiling more like Burris than Pedroia, right now, because of the lack of power. However, what I am trying to show is that quality will usually out when it comes to contact rate and BB/K ratios for hitters. If Joe can hit for a high average with walks, and thus high OBP, he can be a very valuable hitter for us in the lineup.
However, batting second is not one of those spots, at least at the moment. The lineup regression data shows that each point of SLG is very important for the #2 hitter (second most important after #4), and while a high BA helps to keep SLG higher, it don't really make up for a very poor ISO hitter.
Panik would actually be better in the #3 spot, where a high OBP is rewarded, but low SLG/ISO is tolerable, ironic, since most old-time baseball men love to put their best hitters in the #3 spot, wasting their power there. This is probably why our offense was doing so well when Pence was hitting second even while Sandoval was batting third and not doing that well (and I also noticed that Bochy was batting Posey third when he was struggling, so perhaps Bochy is aware of this anomaly as well).
Or, despite his lack of speed, he could be better batting leadoff than second, for if he is able to hit for average and high OBP, it would be better to bat him first and Pence second because Pence has that much more power than Panik. However, if Pence is able to beat Panik in both OBP and SLG, it would be better probably to bat him first, it does vary depending on who is better in OBP and SLG, and by how much.
In any case, right now, given how poorly Hicks has been hitting and how poorly Arias has fielded 2B the past few seasons, I would rather give Panik the bulk of the starts there, just to see how long he can continue to show good batting peripherals and to see how good he is defensively there (so far the advanced stats are not liking him there, UZR and Total Zone have him as negative, though DRS has him at average or zero DRS, but it is still very SSS).
However, once or when Adrianza comes back from rehab, the Giants will have to make a choice, either DFA Adrianza or Hicks or send Panik back down to AAA. Ehire still have a bit of time left on his rehab and the Giants will probably keep him down there as long as possible in order to see Panik as long as possible.
But like Panik, Adrianza had been hitting well before his injury, running up a 5 game hitting streak before his injury. In June, he had 3 walks and 3 K's in 27 ABs, very good peripherals that showed in his batting line, .333/.419/.407/.827, but unsustainable .375 BABIP. Still, you drop that to .300 BABIP, and you got around .258/.344/.332/.677, which is basically what we've been getting from Blanco off the bench, some OBP and great defense, but for MI. And at MLB minimum. So I would not expect the Giants to DFA Adrianza.
Hard Choices
Right now, it looks like the good vibes of the early Hicks success story is crashing down hard, possibly leading to a DFA when Adrianza is ready to come off the DL (unless he has another injury...). Hicks in June hit .115/.246/.173/.419, with 23 strikeouts in only 52 AB (only 56% contact rate or horrible 44% strikeout rate) and with no homers. As good as his defense has been, which is roughly at a 1 WAR seasonal rate, that in no way makes up for poor hitting like that. It appears that the clock might have struck midnight for this Cinderella story.
Still, we don't know how the Joe Panik story will end up while Adrianza is still on the DL and rehabbing. His good hitting could stop and the down cycle begins again, in which case, Hicks probably gets a reprieve and Panik gets sent down. Or he could continue and make a strong case for DFAing Adrianza since Scutaro appears to be working towards joining the team after the ASB as a bench player, or even Arias, despite his new 2 year contract, he has not been hitting at all and he's only a good defensive player at 3B, making him a possible DFA candidate when/if Scutaro returns. Or maybe Adrianza's injury lingers and reinjure easily. Or the Giants could decide that one backup outfielder is enough again and send Perez back down since he still has his option for the season.
The Giants will have to make some hard choices when/if Scutaro returns, and Panik and Adrianza are not the ones who are looking really bad right now, Arias is, as well as Hicks, for the two backup infield spots. They are the ones on the edge right now, in my estimation.
Lots of options available to the Giants, some already utilized this season, as Perez has been up and down many times already this season, taking the Fresno Shuttle. It will be interesting times for these Giants players, fortunately and unfortunately, and the Giants most likely will have to make a hard choice and let go of someone they like but must let go of because they have only 25 spots on the MLB roster.
ogc thoughts
One thing I noticed was that his contact rate was superb during this stretch of poor batting line, so I thought I would dig a little deeper into his numbers. All SSS, so I'm not panicking yet, if anything I'm Paniking, as we'll see here.
He has only had 12 games, so there is nothing to really key on really, not enough sample data points. That goes for both bad and good, in spite of the poor batting line. BABIP can go wildly up and down in such small samplings, as we all know, so there is not a lot that can truly be said about his hitting.
For example, what has been masked by the poor hitting that initially followed his nice intro to the majors is that he has been hitting well lately. In his last 6 games played, he has hit .368/.409/.421/.830, but .350 BABIP. That is much better than his overall .257/.325/.314/.639 batting line. Of course, that BABIP is likely not sustainable, but that could be regression to the mean due to his 0-for-12 he put up in his prior 4 games. Or perhaps he was just lucky good now, and the before was his mean talent level. Can't really tell right now.
What we can say, and this bodes well for his MLB future if he can continue this, is that in 35 AB, he only has 3 K's but do have 4 BB's. That's a 91% contact rate as well as more walks than strikeouts, both of which only the best hitters in baseball can do.
According to Baseball Forecaster studies, hitters with above 1.0 BB/K ratios, on average, hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range, with 51% ending up above .300 and only 9% ending up below .250. And that jives with hitters with contact rate in the 90's, they normally end up hitting .270-.290. And combining his walk rate (10%) with his contact rate, again, roughly .280 hitter on average. On top of all that, his pitches per PA is at 3.80, which is on the good side, and hitters in his range tended to have high OBP, .347, which is pretty good.
These all suggest that he should be able to raise his BA up another 20-30 points, roughly, putting him around .340-.350 OBP, which would be pretty good to get in the #2 spot of the batting order.
What this reminds me of was Dustin Pedroia's first month in the majors, in his first full season in 2007. His batting line was horrible, but his batting peripherals were good, he wasn't striking out much, while walking a lot, much like Panik is in a little less than half a month of results. And given enough time, he worked things out and has hit very well.
Not that Panik is on Pedroia's level. Joe's ISO and SLG is not that good, and that is a key difference between the two, and I do not mean to suggest that they are similar level prospects. Panik is profiling more like Burris than Pedroia, right now, because of the lack of power. However, what I am trying to show is that quality will usually out when it comes to contact rate and BB/K ratios for hitters. If Joe can hit for a high average with walks, and thus high OBP, he can be a very valuable hitter for us in the lineup.
However, batting second is not one of those spots, at least at the moment. The lineup regression data shows that each point of SLG is very important for the #2 hitter (second most important after #4), and while a high BA helps to keep SLG higher, it don't really make up for a very poor ISO hitter.
Panik would actually be better in the #3 spot, where a high OBP is rewarded, but low SLG/ISO is tolerable, ironic, since most old-time baseball men love to put their best hitters in the #3 spot, wasting their power there. This is probably why our offense was doing so well when Pence was hitting second even while Sandoval was batting third and not doing that well (and I also noticed that Bochy was batting Posey third when he was struggling, so perhaps Bochy is aware of this anomaly as well).
Or, despite his lack of speed, he could be better batting leadoff than second, for if he is able to hit for average and high OBP, it would be better to bat him first and Pence second because Pence has that much more power than Panik. However, if Pence is able to beat Panik in both OBP and SLG, it would be better probably to bat him first, it does vary depending on who is better in OBP and SLG, and by how much.
In any case, right now, given how poorly Hicks has been hitting and how poorly Arias has fielded 2B the past few seasons, I would rather give Panik the bulk of the starts there, just to see how long he can continue to show good batting peripherals and to see how good he is defensively there (so far the advanced stats are not liking him there, UZR and Total Zone have him as negative, though DRS has him at average or zero DRS, but it is still very SSS).
However, once or when Adrianza comes back from rehab, the Giants will have to make a choice, either DFA Adrianza or Hicks or send Panik back down to AAA. Ehire still have a bit of time left on his rehab and the Giants will probably keep him down there as long as possible in order to see Panik as long as possible.
But like Panik, Adrianza had been hitting well before his injury, running up a 5 game hitting streak before his injury. In June, he had 3 walks and 3 K's in 27 ABs, very good peripherals that showed in his batting line, .333/.419/.407/.827, but unsustainable .375 BABIP. Still, you drop that to .300 BABIP, and you got around .258/.344/.332/.677, which is basically what we've been getting from Blanco off the bench, some OBP and great defense, but for MI. And at MLB minimum. So I would not expect the Giants to DFA Adrianza.
Hard Choices
Right now, it looks like the good vibes of the early Hicks success story is crashing down hard, possibly leading to a DFA when Adrianza is ready to come off the DL (unless he has another injury...). Hicks in June hit .115/.246/.173/.419, with 23 strikeouts in only 52 AB (only 56% contact rate or horrible 44% strikeout rate) and with no homers. As good as his defense has been, which is roughly at a 1 WAR seasonal rate, that in no way makes up for poor hitting like that. It appears that the clock might have struck midnight for this Cinderella story.
Still, we don't know how the Joe Panik story will end up while Adrianza is still on the DL and rehabbing. His good hitting could stop and the down cycle begins again, in which case, Hicks probably gets a reprieve and Panik gets sent down. Or he could continue and make a strong case for DFAing Adrianza since Scutaro appears to be working towards joining the team after the ASB as a bench player, or even Arias, despite his new 2 year contract, he has not been hitting at all and he's only a good defensive player at 3B, making him a possible DFA candidate when/if Scutaro returns. Or maybe Adrianza's injury lingers and reinjure easily. Or the Giants could decide that one backup outfielder is enough again and send Perez back down since he still has his option for the season.
The Giants will have to make some hard choices when/if Scutaro returns, and Panik and Adrianza are not the ones who are looking really bad right now, Arias is, as well as Hicks, for the two backup infield spots. They are the ones on the edge right now, in my estimation.
Lots of options available to the Giants, some already utilized this season, as Perez has been up and down many times already this season, taking the Fresno Shuttle. It will be interesting times for these Giants players, fortunately and unfortunately, and the Giants most likely will have to make a hard choice and let go of someone they like but must let go of because they have only 25 spots on the MLB roster.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Your 2014 Giants FanFeast
The Giants had their annual FanFest and Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic, and Haft posted good bits of info (I would just link, but some spread it out over a number of posts, so find their links to the right if you don't already have them bookmarked, THE sources to go to for comprehensive Giants info).
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Your 2013 Giants: Done and Done
Wow, I knew that the season was reaching a crucial point, but did not see it crashing and burning so fast. As Boof aptly commented on another post, the season appears to be done. And the Giants appear to be acknowledging this by bringing up Brett Pill and Roger Kieschnick.
ogc thoughts
Everyone has their own milestone where they give up on the season. But I prefer logic to have governance over that. One of the great tools I've seen for managing a baseball season I learned from Dusty Baker (and I've seen references to other people using this tool, I'm only acknowledging my source) during one of his interviews long ago.
One Game A Week, That's All He Asks
Basically, the rule is to make up one game in the standings per week. One of the best project management tips I have ever heard for breaking down a much larger project into an easily comprehended and calculated metric. That helps players get out from under a huge deficit in the standings and be able to take a breath and not be as nervous/pressurized about where the team is in the standings.
However, the flipside of that is if you are more games behind than weeks left in the season, then your team is in a pretty bad position in competing for the division title. And the Giants just passed that this past week, as they are now 10 games back (oops, 11 games...) and there are only 8 weeks (roughly) left in the season. While I never give up final hope until September and this rule is in effect, for me, now that we are behind by that much, looking ahead to next season while trying to be competitive should now be the focus.
I have seen a lot of people say that it has been over for a while - one in fact asked me to apologize for saying that the Giants still had a chance - so the above is the reasoning I use for guiding following my team. There is no apology forthcoming.
Frankly, some of them are those I've seen before who said the team had no chance in 2010 and 2012, that the season was over, further, are people I've seen in late 2000's decade saying that the Giants were done and going nowhere, and they were clearly wrong, so why would I listen to them now? And some were very rude to me but I've never gotten an apology nor do I expect one from people who are so delusional to think that people like me would now listen to what they are spouting off now about the Giants when they have been mostly wrong for the past six or more years about the Giants direction. Just because they think the sky is falling and it actually does one time does not make them futuristic savants whose latest missives I should heed.
Not that you should heed my missives either, I wholeheartedly believe in sharing what information I know so that if I'm as delusional as others, I get pulled back from the ledge as well. I think I've been in a good spot, the Giants weren't doing well, but there were some signs of improvement that I pointed out as positives for the future - and for all the Naysayers saying they called it, not all of you did because the pitching this last weekend was amazing and some of you thought they were done - that did not work out as I thought they might. It happens.
I still have some hope of the Giants getting back into contention for the same reasons I thought that they still had a chance. But we are so far back that we need to start at least figuring out some things for next season.
Looking Forward
Lots of things happening, lots of things to consider. Here are the ones I can remember:
The beats say that the Giants are not looking to trade anyone specifically but are at the point where they have to listen to deals and see what they can get. Sabean has already pointed out that Lincecum and Pence will get qualifying offers, which means that they get picks, and that sets the minimum bar for what the Giants would want for them. Sounds like the Giants are unlikely to trade Lincecum however, while Pence is available for the right price, but the Giants appear to still want to resign Pence.
Rumors include:
Not that I think that they will be bargains either, I expect to overpay some. In Lincecum's case, we just don't know what we are going to get. I don't expect him to get any deal over $15M per season, and when it's that close to the qualifying offer, I don't see why the Giants won't just offer around that much if he turns down the QO and why he won't resign in hopes of rebuilding his free agent value with the team for one more season. Meanwhile, I'm hoping he makes the transition in 2014 to pitcher from thrower, or if not, transition to a super utility reliever who pitches as short or as long and as often as he feels like it. I'm willing to overpay 2014 in case he's that close, and I think he is. If 2014 is another bad year, then I'll be willing to let him go.
Pence I think is way overpriced. Not that great defensively, and really, his offense isn't THAT great, though good. But the Giants offense cannot get any worse without hurting our chances in 2014 and frankly I doubt there is anyone out on the market that we can get equivalent production for cheaper cost. So I'm willing to overpay to $13-15M per year for him for 3-4 seasons to retain his offensive production.
Belt I still believe in. I understand some are frustrated, but just look at Matt Williams' arc, he took three seasons to figure things out, before busting out in his fourth season, so I would rather keep Belt to see if he can do that, he's actually hit much better than Matt did in their early seasons. When there is the potential for a Votto-like player, I think you just have to be patient with him. But Norris is pretty good too, so I would probably do that trade if it were available, but I have to think that they would want younger prospects for Norris.
Same with Sandoval. I understand why some want to trade him (particular Shankbone), but guys who are potential 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and while an offense with Posey, Pence, Belt is good, it would that much better with Sandoval. I will put up with him and be OK with getting a draft pick for him when he leaves, that's too much risk to go long-term with him without a clause on his weight.
The two I am OK with trading are Scutaro and Lopez. Scutaro the Giants really only wanted for two seasons, and he's hitting well, so if someone wants to overpay for him, great, take the deal, but it is only for so-so prospects, then that's OK, I would keep him.
Lopez makes the most sense. He's a free agent and Mijares has done very well for us, so we have a ready replacement already. Some are hoping for a bonanza like the A's got with Reddick, but really, that was just a fluke, like the Mets trading Kazmir, you have to be in the right time, right place, right players, right desperation/stupidity. You don't hope to get such deals, you just fall into them.
Still, a shutdown lefty reliever like him was shown to be very valuable during the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, and a team might be willing to overpay some to get him. He's the only one I would push to trade and do it for the best offer out there. That would also free up space for one of our AAA relievers to come up and see what he's got.
With Moscosco in tow now, the Giants now have Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Gaudin, and Moscosco as the 2014 starting rotation, not great but not too bad either. The Giants can now enter into negotiations with Lincecum wanting him to return, but not needing him to return.
ogc thoughts
Everyone has their own milestone where they give up on the season. But I prefer logic to have governance over that. One of the great tools I've seen for managing a baseball season I learned from Dusty Baker (and I've seen references to other people using this tool, I'm only acknowledging my source) during one of his interviews long ago.
One Game A Week, That's All He Asks
Basically, the rule is to make up one game in the standings per week. One of the best project management tips I have ever heard for breaking down a much larger project into an easily comprehended and calculated metric. That helps players get out from under a huge deficit in the standings and be able to take a breath and not be as nervous/pressurized about where the team is in the standings.
However, the flipside of that is if you are more games behind than weeks left in the season, then your team is in a pretty bad position in competing for the division title. And the Giants just passed that this past week, as they are now 10 games back (oops, 11 games...) and there are only 8 weeks (roughly) left in the season. While I never give up final hope until September and this rule is in effect, for me, now that we are behind by that much, looking ahead to next season while trying to be competitive should now be the focus.
I have seen a lot of people say that it has been over for a while - one in fact asked me to apologize for saying that the Giants still had a chance - so the above is the reasoning I use for guiding following my team. There is no apology forthcoming.
Frankly, some of them are those I've seen before who said the team had no chance in 2010 and 2012, that the season was over, further, are people I've seen in late 2000's decade saying that the Giants were done and going nowhere, and they were clearly wrong, so why would I listen to them now? And some were very rude to me but I've never gotten an apology nor do I expect one from people who are so delusional to think that people like me would now listen to what they are spouting off now about the Giants when they have been mostly wrong for the past six or more years about the Giants direction. Just because they think the sky is falling and it actually does one time does not make them futuristic savants whose latest missives I should heed.
Not that you should heed my missives either, I wholeheartedly believe in sharing what information I know so that if I'm as delusional as others, I get pulled back from the ledge as well. I think I've been in a good spot, the Giants weren't doing well, but there were some signs of improvement that I pointed out as positives for the future - and for all the Naysayers saying they called it, not all of you did because the pitching this last weekend was amazing and some of you thought they were done - that did not work out as I thought they might. It happens.
I still have some hope of the Giants getting back into contention for the same reasons I thought that they still had a chance. But we are so far back that we need to start at least figuring out some things for next season.
Looking Forward
Lots of things happening, lots of things to consider. Here are the ones I can remember:
- Heston was DFAed and resigned with us, he's in AAA
- Hunter Strickland was DFAed and still has a few more days before we find out what happens with him, but given he has been out since early April, I don't see any team dropping someone on their 40 man to pick up a still injured player.
- Petit was surprisingly (to me) DFAed after his nice relief outing for us, so Shankbone's observation that Petit didn't have that great of stuff in spring training seems to be the best explanation of that move.
- The Giants picked up Guillermo Moscosco from the Cubs for cash or a player to be named later, which is why the Giants dropped Petit.
- Giants activated Arias and optioned Dunning, who did a great job for us, to Fresno.
- Brian Wilson had a nice session in front of MLB teams and a handful, including the Giants, are interested in his services and are serious contenders. Still don't know if he's mad at the Giants enough to not sign with them - it seemed like he had burned that bridge already though - or if he's cooled down enough to be open to it. However, a retweet by John Shea of a Tim Brown tweet noted that Wilson signed with Dodgers. Hard to tell if that was a big middle finger to Giants or just the Dodgers love for ex-Giants (Colletti) and/or big stack of cash they have burning in their pockets. Part of me was wishing he would return, but the poor homestand put the kibosh on that, he didn't work as hard as he did to return only to pitch for a non-contender.
- Vogie still appears to be on track to return sometime in the first half of August.
- Abreu was placed on the 15 day DL while Tanaka was optioned to Fresno.
- Pill and Kieschnick were both called up,meaning Arias is the only backup MI.
The beats say that the Giants are not looking to trade anyone specifically but are at the point where they have to listen to deals and see what they can get. Sabean has already pointed out that Lincecum and Pence will get qualifying offers, which means that they get picks, and that sets the minimum bar for what the Giants would want for them. Sounds like the Giants are unlikely to trade Lincecum however, while Pence is available for the right price, but the Giants appear to still want to resign Pence.
Rumors include:
- Belt to Astros for Bud Norris (mere speculation, I think, due to Pill call-up)
- At minimum, the Giants were "hard in" on Norris previously, so that is something to note. And the Astros are looking for at least a top prospect, so that means, for the Giants, starting with Crick probably, maybe Blackburn would be OK too, to start.
- Lopez for prospects (more speculation since he's valuable to contender and a free agent after the season).
- Reportedly, Reds are interested in Pence, as well as the Yankees, Rangers and Pirates.
- Scutaro has also been subject to speculation as well among fans, due to his age and contract.
Not that I think that they will be bargains either, I expect to overpay some. In Lincecum's case, we just don't know what we are going to get. I don't expect him to get any deal over $15M per season, and when it's that close to the qualifying offer, I don't see why the Giants won't just offer around that much if he turns down the QO and why he won't resign in hopes of rebuilding his free agent value with the team for one more season. Meanwhile, I'm hoping he makes the transition in 2014 to pitcher from thrower, or if not, transition to a super utility reliever who pitches as short or as long and as often as he feels like it. I'm willing to overpay 2014 in case he's that close, and I think he is. If 2014 is another bad year, then I'll be willing to let him go.
Pence I think is way overpriced. Not that great defensively, and really, his offense isn't THAT great, though good. But the Giants offense cannot get any worse without hurting our chances in 2014 and frankly I doubt there is anyone out on the market that we can get equivalent production for cheaper cost. So I'm willing to overpay to $13-15M per year for him for 3-4 seasons to retain his offensive production.
Belt I still believe in. I understand some are frustrated, but just look at Matt Williams' arc, he took three seasons to figure things out, before busting out in his fourth season, so I would rather keep Belt to see if he can do that, he's actually hit much better than Matt did in their early seasons. When there is the potential for a Votto-like player, I think you just have to be patient with him. But Norris is pretty good too, so I would probably do that trade if it were available, but I have to think that they would want younger prospects for Norris.
Same with Sandoval. I understand why some want to trade him (particular Shankbone), but guys who are potential 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and while an offense with Posey, Pence, Belt is good, it would that much better with Sandoval. I will put up with him and be OK with getting a draft pick for him when he leaves, that's too much risk to go long-term with him without a clause on his weight.
The two I am OK with trading are Scutaro and Lopez. Scutaro the Giants really only wanted for two seasons, and he's hitting well, so if someone wants to overpay for him, great, take the deal, but it is only for so-so prospects, then that's OK, I would keep him.
Lopez makes the most sense. He's a free agent and Mijares has done very well for us, so we have a ready replacement already. Some are hoping for a bonanza like the A's got with Reddick, but really, that was just a fluke, like the Mets trading Kazmir, you have to be in the right time, right place, right players, right desperation/stupidity. You don't hope to get such deals, you just fall into them.
Still, a shutdown lefty reliever like him was shown to be very valuable during the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, and a team might be willing to overpay some to get him. He's the only one I would push to trade and do it for the best offer out there. That would also free up space for one of our AAA relievers to come up and see what he's got.
With Moscosco in tow now, the Giants now have Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Gaudin, and Moscosco as the 2014 starting rotation, not great but not too bad either. The Giants can now enter into negotiations with Lincecum wanting him to return, but not needing him to return.
Wednesday, May 08, 2013
Scutaro Small Sample Scramble
There was a lot of crying over Scutaro in recent weeks until he had his nice recent hot streak, remniscent of when he was with the Giants in 2012. What did the numbers say?
Thursday, April 18, 2013
The Curiously Strong Alchemy of S-squared P-squared
What is it about Scutaro, Sandoval, Posey, Pence batting in a row?
Tuesday, December 04, 2012
Mission Accomplished: Giants Sign Scutaro to 3 years, $20M
The report I can find on this right now is Pavlovic's blog post and Baggarly's blurb which reports on a Ken Rosenthal tweet.. Not too much details, a reported three years for $20M for the Giants to keep Marco Scutaro. Also, Baggarly tweeted that the Cards never went to three years for Scutaro, but apparently was offering 2 years in the $8M per range, which led the Giants to move to guarantee the third year, giving Scutaro an extra $4M for that third year over the Cards.
ogc thoughts
Mission Accomplished: Giants wanted to sign Affledt, Pagan, and Scutaro, and they just did. All the deals reflect the higher salaries being paid this off-season, which is most likely related to the $15-20M boost in revenues that they get from ESPN starting next season with their shiny new contract.
Yet still, the contracts were all relatively reasonable. Affeldt got $6M per year, and given that League had already gotten $7M per year from LA, that was a fair price. Pagan got $10M per year, which was the upper range of what I was hoping for (I was thinking $8-9M per, Randy Winn range, if I remember right), but many people were predicting 3 years at $10M, so 4 years at that rate is not outrageous. And he doesn't even need to duplicate his 2012 season each season to pay off on the deal. Plus, Victorino's deal for 3 years at $39M ($13M per) make the Giants deal look great, though I would note that one thing most people neglect to mention is that Victorino has many more years of good offensive production than Pagan, and that is the difference there (for Upton, it was his age and potential improvement). And Scutaro, I thought, should get around the $6M per year that he got in his previous contract that he signed, given inflation and two more years on him, and he probably got $6M/$7M/$7M, which is close enough for me. As Evans joked at one point, if he can survive that slide by Holliday and still play great baseball, he's going to be fine.
I see some people upset that Gregor Blanco is now the starting LF. These are the people who are never satisfied unless every starter on the team is some sort of star player capable of great deeds. Most lineups have a Blanco (actually, they have worse) somewhere in their lineup, and a Crawford, if not more. These people never look at reality, at the actual teams making up the league and seeing what it takes to build an above average lineup. And you don't need above average players at every position to do that, you need some really good players in the top half of the lineup - like Pagan, Sandoval, Posey, Pence, even Scutaro and Belt - because most teams cannot afford to have a better lineup than that, and if they do have it better, typically that means that they scrimped on their starting or relief pitching, and then the Giants got them where they want them.
Things left to do are few. The Giants are interested in bringing back Theriot and I loved having him around too, he is a great backup in case either MI needs a rest or, god forbid, out for some reason. Those complaining about Blanco don't realize that the Giants is looking for a right-handed complement to Blanco in the OF - ahem, Andres Torres is a free agent - and Nady wasn't so bad last season either. Plus Peguerao was pretty interesting last season, great defense and speed, could be a Hanchez redux. They are probably going to look into former starters on the fringe for AAA, just in case, though they did sign Hacker the other day and Heston, Kickham, and Surkamp should be in AAA as well (where's Petit?). They are probably going to give some vet a minor league invite to compete for the bullpen, though if they prove good to form, they are hoping that Hembree steps up and take that last spot. And, of course, Brian Wilson is still out there, hopefully he understands why the Giants did what they did and re-join us, this is the best place for someone special like him. Otherwise, things are looking good for a defense of their championship in the 2013 season.
Go Giants!
ogc thoughts
Mission Accomplished: Giants wanted to sign Affledt, Pagan, and Scutaro, and they just did. All the deals reflect the higher salaries being paid this off-season, which is most likely related to the $15-20M boost in revenues that they get from ESPN starting next season with their shiny new contract.
Yet still, the contracts were all relatively reasonable. Affeldt got $6M per year, and given that League had already gotten $7M per year from LA, that was a fair price. Pagan got $10M per year, which was the upper range of what I was hoping for (I was thinking $8-9M per, Randy Winn range, if I remember right), but many people were predicting 3 years at $10M, so 4 years at that rate is not outrageous. And he doesn't even need to duplicate his 2012 season each season to pay off on the deal. Plus, Victorino's deal for 3 years at $39M ($13M per) make the Giants deal look great, though I would note that one thing most people neglect to mention is that Victorino has many more years of good offensive production than Pagan, and that is the difference there (for Upton, it was his age and potential improvement). And Scutaro, I thought, should get around the $6M per year that he got in his previous contract that he signed, given inflation and two more years on him, and he probably got $6M/$7M/$7M, which is close enough for me. As Evans joked at one point, if he can survive that slide by Holliday and still play great baseball, he's going to be fine.
I see some people upset that Gregor Blanco is now the starting LF. These are the people who are never satisfied unless every starter on the team is some sort of star player capable of great deeds. Most lineups have a Blanco (actually, they have worse) somewhere in their lineup, and a Crawford, if not more. These people never look at reality, at the actual teams making up the league and seeing what it takes to build an above average lineup. And you don't need above average players at every position to do that, you need some really good players in the top half of the lineup - like Pagan, Sandoval, Posey, Pence, even Scutaro and Belt - because most teams cannot afford to have a better lineup than that, and if they do have it better, typically that means that they scrimped on their starting or relief pitching, and then the Giants got them where they want them.
Things left to do are few. The Giants are interested in bringing back Theriot and I loved having him around too, he is a great backup in case either MI needs a rest or, god forbid, out for some reason. Those complaining about Blanco don't realize that the Giants is looking for a right-handed complement to Blanco in the OF - ahem, Andres Torres is a free agent - and Nady wasn't so bad last season either. Plus Peguerao was pretty interesting last season, great defense and speed, could be a Hanchez redux. They are probably going to look into former starters on the fringe for AAA, just in case, though they did sign Hacker the other day and Heston, Kickham, and Surkamp should be in AAA as well (where's Petit?). They are probably going to give some vet a minor league invite to compete for the bullpen, though if they prove good to form, they are hoping that Hembree steps up and take that last spot. And, of course, Brian Wilson is still out there, hopefully he understands why the Giants did what they did and re-join us, this is the best place for someone special like him. Otherwise, things are looking good for a defense of their championship in the 2013 season.
Go Giants!
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Your 2013 Giants: Five Added to 40-Man Roster
Sorry, but things have been busy, here is the latest news on the Giants 40-man roster additions, as reported by sfgiants.com. Five players have been added to the 40-man roster, after a lot of space was cleared out within a week of the glorious 2012 season that was the San Francisco Giants second World Championship in three years, including the release of RHP reliever Hensley and the sending of Burriss to AAA. Even with the addition of these five players, there is still five more open spots in the 40-man roster, indicating that the Giants are hoping to add a number of free agents to the roster during the off-season.
These players were added in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft process, which will be conducted on December 6th at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.
ogc thoughts
Obviously, with so many spots still open on the 40 man roster, the Giants appear to be hoping to add Scutaro and Pagan, though the latter appears to be slipping away, both because of years and salary, and because the Giants already have Gregor Blanco as a viable CF candidate. The Giants are clearly intending for Gary Brown to be their future CF, and a long term contract with Pagan could mean that he could be pushed to LF at some point once Brown is ready. Brown should start 2013 in AAA and could be ready to come up sometime in the 2013-14 seasons time frame. And at the money he appears to be rumored to be getting, the only way he can produce such value is if he played CF.
Meanwhile, as DrB elaborated nicely on at his blog and which I've touched on in my comments here and there, Blanco gives the Giants a lot of flexibility in terms of whatever moves they make regarding the outfield for the 2013 season. Him plus that both Kieschnick and Peguero appear to be ready to compete for either a starting OF spot, or more likely, a utility OF spot, and perhaps two spots if Blanco is starting CF and the Giants sign a LF who can replace Pagan's hitting. Thus, Pagan is nice to have but not as much of a necessity as re-signing Scutaro.
Though Scutaro is also not as necessary to get either if the Giants can retain Ryan Theriot. I assume Theriot is hoping to land a starting spot somewhere but if not, the Giants will welcome him back to the bench as MI utility. But if nobody was offering last off-season, I don't really see anyone doing that this off-season either. Though even he is not necessary, as Joaquin Arias looks like he is a good utility MI, and Nick Noonan looks like he has been groomed to take on a utility MI role, like Burriss was, by getting a lot of starts in the minors at 2B and SS.
If the 25 man roster were to be selected today, here is the ones I would think would be chosen:
I think the relievers are pretty set but that some vets will be invited to compete for the final reliever spot with Runzler and Otero who are most likely to contend from the 40 man. Machi will be in the mix as well, and I think that this is probably Heath Hembree's to lose, though I would not count out Brett Bochy either, as a dark horse candidate. I would put Jacob Dunnington in the mix as well.
The Giants clearly need upgrades at 2B and LF/CF (since Blanco could play either) and will likely sign a vet to start at both positions. The bench also needs upgrades over Gillaspie (as we need another utility MI) and Pill. Peguero, after his nice showing last September, look ready to take a spot as a 4th OF, though another year of seasoning in AAA would not hurt either, so expect veteran OF's to be invited to camp, probably including a $1-3M veteran free agent at some point.
However, I would note from past observations that the Giants like to keep a spot open for prospects who appear like they might be ready to compete for a starting spot, so I expect LF to be kept open, with Blanco either starting in CF or, if a vet CF is signed, be the lead competitor for the LF starting spot, in competition with Kieschnick, Peguero, and probably at least one vet OF (Nady?).
Overall, the Giants look in pretty good shape for a good run at defending their title in 2013. I'm very happy with where they are right now, though I would have preferred that Scutaro been signed by now, as every day he is not signed, is a sign that other teams are showing him enough interest to lure him away. I think Arias is doable starting at 2B for us for the first half, with possible upgrade mid-season from Noonan or another mid-season trade for an MI. I would love to have Theriot here again as main utility MI and starting 2B placeholder until mid-season if necessary. I am fine with Blanco in CF and leading off, he's had an above average OBP for much of career and that is the most important thing to look for out of leadoff, plus he has great defensive skills and great speed as well.
- RHP Jake Dunning: 24 YO Dunning is a reliever, a little old for the EL in 2012 season at 23, but not that old either. His 4.10 ERA was not that special, but he had a 2.41 K/BB ratio, which is good, and a low 2.9 BB/9, but not really that great for AA if he hopes to make the majors at some point. He should get promoted to AAA but needs to do more if he wants to make the majors.
- LHP Edwin Escobar: 20 YO Escobar started 22 games and had a nice 2.96 ERA in the Sally League. He had a stellar 3.81 K/BB ratio, with a superb 2.2 BB/9, but his 8.4 K/9, while good for the league, is not all that special if he wants to make the majors, though it should be noted that most of the hitters had 2 more years of experience over him and thus as he catches up in age to the competition, he should see improvement. And at 20, he's got a lot of time to develop as he rises through the minors.
- RHP Chris Heston: 24 YO Heston is one of those prospects who will need to prove it at every level he rises to. And he certainly did in AA, 2.24 ERA in 25 starts, 3.38 K/BB ratio, good 2.4 BB/9 and OK 8.2 K/9, and stellar 0.1 HR/9, as his over 50% GB% rate over his career: 60% in Rookie in 2009, 57% in Augusta in 2010, 58% in San Jose in 2011, and 53% in Richmond in 2012. The large dip in AA in 2012 suggests that he's started to lose his advantage over the hitters already, so 2013 will be a big test for him when he gets to tackle AAA and see if he can adjust to the higher level of competition.
- MI Nick Noonan: 23 YO Noonan has been my pet favorite for a number of years now. After his stellar second half in San Jose a few years back, where he showed a lot of batting skills, being able to reduce his strikeout rate a lot while also getting more walks than strikeouts for about half the season, I hew to the Baseball Forecaster truism that once a hitter shows a skill, he owns it, then it becomes a matter of showing that skill again consistently. He has not done it for a couple of years after that, but he showed marked improvement in 2012, though part of that appears due to a high BABIP that is similar to what he put up when he first turned pro, but not even close compared to his numbers the past three seasons.
- OF Juan Perez: 26 YO Perez was too old to be a valid prospect in AA in 2012, but he showed some improvement in his batting discipline, cutting down on his strikeouts in 2012 vs. 2011 and before, and his contact rate, while not quite there yet (that is >= 85%) was very close at 82.4%, and I think that is the main reason he got added. His batting line was a nice .302/.341/.441/.782, but as you can see, he don't get many walks, so he will need to hit and well if he hopes to stick in the majors. Improving his contact rate a bit more would help him get there, that plus his power to go with good enough speed that helps him steal bases (but his technique is sadly lacking, as his CS is very high).
These players were added in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft process, which will be conducted on December 6th at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.
ogc thoughts
Obviously, with so many spots still open on the 40 man roster, the Giants appear to be hoping to add Scutaro and Pagan, though the latter appears to be slipping away, both because of years and salary, and because the Giants already have Gregor Blanco as a viable CF candidate. The Giants are clearly intending for Gary Brown to be their future CF, and a long term contract with Pagan could mean that he could be pushed to LF at some point once Brown is ready. Brown should start 2013 in AAA and could be ready to come up sometime in the 2013-14 seasons time frame. And at the money he appears to be rumored to be getting, the only way he can produce such value is if he played CF.
Meanwhile, as DrB elaborated nicely on at his blog and which I've touched on in my comments here and there, Blanco gives the Giants a lot of flexibility in terms of whatever moves they make regarding the outfield for the 2013 season. Him plus that both Kieschnick and Peguero appear to be ready to compete for either a starting OF spot, or more likely, a utility OF spot, and perhaps two spots if Blanco is starting CF and the Giants sign a LF who can replace Pagan's hitting. Thus, Pagan is nice to have but not as much of a necessity as re-signing Scutaro.
Though Scutaro is also not as necessary to get either if the Giants can retain Ryan Theriot. I assume Theriot is hoping to land a starting spot somewhere but if not, the Giants will welcome him back to the bench as MI utility. But if nobody was offering last off-season, I don't really see anyone doing that this off-season either. Though even he is not necessary, as Joaquin Arias looks like he is a good utility MI, and Nick Noonan looks like he has been groomed to take on a utility MI role, like Burriss was, by getting a lot of starts in the minors at 2B and SS.
If the 25 man roster were to be selected today, here is the ones I would think would be chosen:
- Starters: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito
- Relievers: Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Kontos, Mijares, and Runzler/Otero
- Starting Position: Posey, Belt, Arias, Sandoval, Crawford, Kieschnick, Blanco, Pence
- Bench: Sanchez, Arias, Gillaspie, Pill, Peguero
I think the relievers are pretty set but that some vets will be invited to compete for the final reliever spot with Runzler and Otero who are most likely to contend from the 40 man. Machi will be in the mix as well, and I think that this is probably Heath Hembree's to lose, though I would not count out Brett Bochy either, as a dark horse candidate. I would put Jacob Dunnington in the mix as well.
The Giants clearly need upgrades at 2B and LF/CF (since Blanco could play either) and will likely sign a vet to start at both positions. The bench also needs upgrades over Gillaspie (as we need another utility MI) and Pill. Peguero, after his nice showing last September, look ready to take a spot as a 4th OF, though another year of seasoning in AAA would not hurt either, so expect veteran OF's to be invited to camp, probably including a $1-3M veteran free agent at some point.
However, I would note from past observations that the Giants like to keep a spot open for prospects who appear like they might be ready to compete for a starting spot, so I expect LF to be kept open, with Blanco either starting in CF or, if a vet CF is signed, be the lead competitor for the LF starting spot, in competition with Kieschnick, Peguero, and probably at least one vet OF (Nady?).
Overall, the Giants look in pretty good shape for a good run at defending their title in 2013. I'm very happy with where they are right now, though I would have preferred that Scutaro been signed by now, as every day he is not signed, is a sign that other teams are showing him enough interest to lure him away. I think Arias is doable starting at 2B for us for the first half, with possible upgrade mid-season from Noonan or another mid-season trade for an MI. I would love to have Theriot here again as main utility MI and starting 2B placeholder until mid-season if necessary. I am fine with Blanco in CF and leading off, he's had an above average OBP for much of career and that is the most important thing to look for out of leadoff, plus he has great defensive skills and great speed as well.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Your 2012 Giants Are World Champions!!!
Epic!
Wow, what a game! What a series! What a season!
If ever there was a team effort for World Series MVP, this was it. Sure, Pablo Sandoval gave the Tigers a gut punch in the first game with his homers and hit well all through the series, but what got lost among all that is that Barry Zito pitched a great game, to go with his other great game. Without Zito, the march to being the World Champions would have ended seven games ago.
And while Pablo won the game for us in game 1, it was Hunter Pence who scored the first run in the following three games, and without those runs, who knows if we would have scored the runs to win those games, and he drove in the second run in game 2, and the Tigers would have won in regulation in game 4. And Buster Posey, delivering a key homer once again, that kept the game alive into extra innings. Of course, Marco Scutaro again was in the middle of the action, driving in the winning run, and I thought it was apropos that he drove in Ryan Theriot, the guy he replaced at 2B, the guy who hit well for us starting at 2B after he healed up on the DL, and helped us bridge from Freddy Sanchez to Scutaro. And back to the start again, Sandoval stout hitting in the series helped make that happen, as the Tigers had to pitch to Scutaro or face Sandoval with two runners on base.
And what about the defense? Even though they did not hit particularly well in the World Series, both Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco were making big plays in the outfield over and over again. Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt as well in the infield, as well as Scoots. And, in any case, when they did get hits, they got them in key situations, and really, when you are winning games by 1-2 runs, every run is critical and key.
What about the bullpen? Tim Lincecum was so dominant in middle relief, probably the best middle reliever ever. Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla were great in setup. Sergio Romo was great in closing out games, closing out the finale in exclamation with a called strike three on AL MVP Cabrera! And that struck out the side.
And, despite little usage in the World Series, George Kontos and Javier Lopez, without their work in the NL series, we would not have been here, at the end, Champions once more. For those who didn't see the importance of spending $10M on both Affeldt and Lopez should see what happened to the Tigers with their bullpen, to see why we spent that money on proven players who the team's management knew, and could trust and rely on proven performance.
Most of all, the starting pitching: Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Cain. We got three DOM starts in the World Series, and as I noted in my research before, it is DOM starts by pitchers that helps their team win over 70% of the time. They had 8 DOM starts between the NLCS and the World Series, helping the Giants win the World Championship. Not that the Tigers fell down like the Cards did - only one DOM start in the seven games - as the Tigers also had DOM starts, in the last three games, but that is where the hitters come in as well as our pitchers, we scored just enough to win each game. Hitting, pitching, fielding, everyone contributed their necessary contribution to enable the championship, nothing was too small to be of importance, each was necessary for that glorious second championship in three seasons.
San Francisco Giants: Team of the 2010's Decade
I've been saying this since the late 2000's, that the Giants had the makings of the Team of the 2010 Decade. Of course, there is the lovely and great starting pitching to start with, Lincecum, Cain, and, clearly, Bumgarner coming up. Then Sabean has been great at putting together a great bullpen, as he has been able to for much of his time as GM, when the team is good, he is able to pull the trades to build up a great bullpen. And they have been almost picture perfect for what Baseball Prospectus' study on success in the playoffs found: high strikeout pitching staff (check!), great closer (check!), and great fielding defense also (check!).
But you still need some sort of offense. Before this season, we had to accept imperfections because it took time to develop an offense after concentrating on the pitching for so long. Talent does not come into any baseball system quick enough via the draft and international free agents to fuel a championship. The Giants, to their credit, has supplemented well in finding gems among the minor free agents, with Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, and Joaquin Arias coming in and contributing significantly from 2009 to 2012. That is the to the credit of the Giants scouts.
Meanwhile, the Giants picked up offensive gems along the way, Sandoval, Posey, then Belt, Crawford, and Hector Sanchez. These they grew along the way, while also picking up pieces like Theriot, Pagan, Blanco. Then traded for the final pieces to this Epic Championship team, Scutaro and Pence, and they were what drove the offense to the championship, as they outscored the Cards and Tigers by a total of 36-7 in the last seven game, averaging 5.1 runs per game while holding the other team to 1.0 run per game in that stretch, keeping the opponents to 3 runs or under in each of the games in the stretch, reminiscent of their streak in late in the 2010 season.
The Giants, by winning their second World Series Championship in three seasons, has laid strong claim on this decade. If ownership and management can keep this core going forward, this should not be the last of their championships, and hopefully just the beginning. We should have the core players to at least mid-decade, and if the money can be ponied up, into the latter half of the decade as well.
Thank You Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy!
And we have Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy to thank for this. Of course, they could not do it without their top advisers like Dick Tidrow and John Barr, Dave Righetti and Mark Gardner, Tim Flannery and Ron Wotus. Still, they are the ones who get the public scrutiny.
Sabean, what a masterful job he has done, putting together all the pieces, first with the great pitching staff, then now with the great lineup. Bochy, what a masterful job he has done, balancing the present and the future while steering the team to another playoff berth, then switching to cut-throat managing, managing as if each game, each win, was necessary to prevent elimination. And, of course, that paid off in both the Reds and Cards series, as they faced six games of elimination and swept them all. Hopefully the Naysayers can now see that it is not luck that the Giants won, but through excellent decision making on the parts of Sabean and Bochy.
I am thankful that we have the two of them employed for the Giants and hope that the Giants first moves of the off-season be to sign the two of them to another joint extension. They have earned it, in spades.
Then I hope the next moves after that, in no particular order, be to sign Posey (ok he should be first), Pence, Pagan to long term contracts. Plus sign Scutaro, Sandoval, Lincecum, and Affeldt to two year extensions. I would not mind a long term deal for Belt if possible, Crawford too.
And there is money coming in to fuel all these contracts. Remember, the new ESPN deal doubles the revenues delivered to teams, adding over $11M to each team's coffers each year. And revenues from MBLAM has been growing each year, it is one of the great Internet e-commerce success stories so far. And season ticket holders should expect prices to go up again, as well. Plus there is usually a windfall from being in the playoffs as well. Lastly, I'm still hoping the A's will pay at least $100M for the South Bay rights, which will pay for a lot of long-term player contracts.
Congratulations again to the 2012 World Champs, Go Giants!
Wow, what a game! What a series! What a season!
If ever there was a team effort for World Series MVP, this was it. Sure, Pablo Sandoval gave the Tigers a gut punch in the first game with his homers and hit well all through the series, but what got lost among all that is that Barry Zito pitched a great game, to go with his other great game. Without Zito, the march to being the World Champions would have ended seven games ago.
And while Pablo won the game for us in game 1, it was Hunter Pence who scored the first run in the following three games, and without those runs, who knows if we would have scored the runs to win those games, and he drove in the second run in game 2, and the Tigers would have won in regulation in game 4. And Buster Posey, delivering a key homer once again, that kept the game alive into extra innings. Of course, Marco Scutaro again was in the middle of the action, driving in the winning run, and I thought it was apropos that he drove in Ryan Theriot, the guy he replaced at 2B, the guy who hit well for us starting at 2B after he healed up on the DL, and helped us bridge from Freddy Sanchez to Scutaro. And back to the start again, Sandoval stout hitting in the series helped make that happen, as the Tigers had to pitch to Scutaro or face Sandoval with two runners on base.
And what about the defense? Even though they did not hit particularly well in the World Series, both Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco were making big plays in the outfield over and over again. Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt as well in the infield, as well as Scoots. And, in any case, when they did get hits, they got them in key situations, and really, when you are winning games by 1-2 runs, every run is critical and key.
What about the bullpen? Tim Lincecum was so dominant in middle relief, probably the best middle reliever ever. Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla were great in setup. Sergio Romo was great in closing out games, closing out the finale in exclamation with a called strike three on AL MVP Cabrera! And that struck out the side.
And, despite little usage in the World Series, George Kontos and Javier Lopez, without their work in the NL series, we would not have been here, at the end, Champions once more. For those who didn't see the importance of spending $10M on both Affeldt and Lopez should see what happened to the Tigers with their bullpen, to see why we spent that money on proven players who the team's management knew, and could trust and rely on proven performance.
Most of all, the starting pitching: Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Cain. We got three DOM starts in the World Series, and as I noted in my research before, it is DOM starts by pitchers that helps their team win over 70% of the time. They had 8 DOM starts between the NLCS and the World Series, helping the Giants win the World Championship. Not that the Tigers fell down like the Cards did - only one DOM start in the seven games - as the Tigers also had DOM starts, in the last three games, but that is where the hitters come in as well as our pitchers, we scored just enough to win each game. Hitting, pitching, fielding, everyone contributed their necessary contribution to enable the championship, nothing was too small to be of importance, each was necessary for that glorious second championship in three seasons.
San Francisco Giants: Team of the 2010's Decade
I've been saying this since the late 2000's, that the Giants had the makings of the Team of the 2010 Decade. Of course, there is the lovely and great starting pitching to start with, Lincecum, Cain, and, clearly, Bumgarner coming up. Then Sabean has been great at putting together a great bullpen, as he has been able to for much of his time as GM, when the team is good, he is able to pull the trades to build up a great bullpen. And they have been almost picture perfect for what Baseball Prospectus' study on success in the playoffs found: high strikeout pitching staff (check!), great closer (check!), and great fielding defense also (check!).
But you still need some sort of offense. Before this season, we had to accept imperfections because it took time to develop an offense after concentrating on the pitching for so long. Talent does not come into any baseball system quick enough via the draft and international free agents to fuel a championship. The Giants, to their credit, has supplemented well in finding gems among the minor free agents, with Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, and Joaquin Arias coming in and contributing significantly from 2009 to 2012. That is the to the credit of the Giants scouts.
Meanwhile, the Giants picked up offensive gems along the way, Sandoval, Posey, then Belt, Crawford, and Hector Sanchez. These they grew along the way, while also picking up pieces like Theriot, Pagan, Blanco. Then traded for the final pieces to this Epic Championship team, Scutaro and Pence, and they were what drove the offense to the championship, as they outscored the Cards and Tigers by a total of 36-7 in the last seven game, averaging 5.1 runs per game while holding the other team to 1.0 run per game in that stretch, keeping the opponents to 3 runs or under in each of the games in the stretch, reminiscent of their streak in late in the 2010 season.
The Giants, by winning their second World Series Championship in three seasons, has laid strong claim on this decade. If ownership and management can keep this core going forward, this should not be the last of their championships, and hopefully just the beginning. We should have the core players to at least mid-decade, and if the money can be ponied up, into the latter half of the decade as well.
Thank You Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy!
And we have Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy to thank for this. Of course, they could not do it without their top advisers like Dick Tidrow and John Barr, Dave Righetti and Mark Gardner, Tim Flannery and Ron Wotus. Still, they are the ones who get the public scrutiny.
Sabean, what a masterful job he has done, putting together all the pieces, first with the great pitching staff, then now with the great lineup. Bochy, what a masterful job he has done, balancing the present and the future while steering the team to another playoff berth, then switching to cut-throat managing, managing as if each game, each win, was necessary to prevent elimination. And, of course, that paid off in both the Reds and Cards series, as they faced six games of elimination and swept them all. Hopefully the Naysayers can now see that it is not luck that the Giants won, but through excellent decision making on the parts of Sabean and Bochy.
I am thankful that we have the two of them employed for the Giants and hope that the Giants first moves of the off-season be to sign the two of them to another joint extension. They have earned it, in spades.
Then I hope the next moves after that, in no particular order, be to sign Posey (ok he should be first), Pence, Pagan to long term contracts. Plus sign Scutaro, Sandoval, Lincecum, and Affeldt to two year extensions. I would not mind a long term deal for Belt if possible, Crawford too.
And there is money coming in to fuel all these contracts. Remember, the new ESPN deal doubles the revenues delivered to teams, adding over $11M to each team's coffers each year. And revenues from MBLAM has been growing each year, it is one of the great Internet e-commerce success stories so far. And season ticket holders should expect prices to go up again, as well. Plus there is usually a windfall from being in the playoffs as well. Lastly, I'm still hoping the A's will pay at least $100M for the South Bay rights, which will pay for a lot of long-term player contracts.
Congratulations again to the 2012 World Champs, Go Giants!
Monday, October 22, 2012
Your 2012 Giants ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES! EPIC!
The Giants completed an EPIC comeback in the NLCS, coming back from being down 3-1 in a seven game series and beating the Cards 9-0, behind the stout pitching of Matt Cain, 4 PQS DOM start (one out away from a third 5 PQS start by Giants starters, he clearly yelled "NO!" when Bochy came out, and he most likely would have been given the chance to do that by Bochy if 1) the Giants weren't leading by 7-0, 2) Cain was already at 102 pitches, and 3) Bochy wants to save Cain for the World Series).
He continued a streak of three DOM starts by the Giants starting pitchers, and they had DOM starts in 5 of the 7 games, a stark and necessary change from their 1 DOM start in 5 games in the NLDS against the Reds. They should not have been put into the position of needing to win the last three games, they outpitched the Cards by PQS in 5 of the 7 games, but the win by Lohse in game 3 made it necessary. And Cain delivered like he did in the 2010 playoffs, shutting out the Cards, winning easily.
Of course, it helped greatly that the Giants scored runs in their first three innings, including 5 in the third to take a 7-0 lead, with Pence delivering a key hit, driving in two of the runs, and ended the day with 2 hits. Belt belted one deep into the RF stands for a homer and 9-0 lead.
They are the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back in two series down by two games and winning three straight to win each series. They are the only two teams to do that since the MLB expanded the playoffs to four teams in both leagues in 1969.
And, in any case, any way you write it, winning six straight elimination games like that is EPIC no matter how many or little teams in the past have done that. It takes a lot of cujones to do that, and Posey and Cain, to me, are the leaders who instills this sense in the team that anything is possible. After all, it was the two of them talking at the celebration parade about returning to the World Series and winning it again. It was Cain who earlier this season exhorted his teammates: "Here, I'm going to keep battling for you. You keep battling for me." The Giants have been 85-56 since Cain made that statement, and won the NL Championship and earned another trip to the World Series.
Finally, it was very fitting that Holliday popped up to Scutaro for the last out. His dirty slide really pissed off the Giants, particularly Scutaro, who did not hit well against the Reds.
Also, Marco Scutaro won the NLCS Most Valuable Player Award for his stellar hitting, 14 hits in total in the NLCS, 6 runs scored, 4 RBI, and he struck out only one time in 27 AB, he had 2 walks. He's the second consecutive late season pickup to win the NLCS for us, Cody Ross being the other one. Speaking of Ross, Marco tied Ross's team record of hits in 10 straight games.
This is the 19th time the Giants have gotten to the World Series, second only to the Yankees. They get home advantage because the NL won the All-Star game
To quote Shankbone and repeat the sentiments, "The Giants Win the Pennant!"
As I've been saying for a number of years now: The Giants are the Team of the 2010 Decade.
Go Giants! Win it again!
He continued a streak of three DOM starts by the Giants starting pitchers, and they had DOM starts in 5 of the 7 games, a stark and necessary change from their 1 DOM start in 5 games in the NLDS against the Reds. They should not have been put into the position of needing to win the last three games, they outpitched the Cards by PQS in 5 of the 7 games, but the win by Lohse in game 3 made it necessary. And Cain delivered like he did in the 2010 playoffs, shutting out the Cards, winning easily.
Of course, it helped greatly that the Giants scored runs in their first three innings, including 5 in the third to take a 7-0 lead, with Pence delivering a key hit, driving in two of the runs, and ended the day with 2 hits. Belt belted one deep into the RF stands for a homer and 9-0 lead.
They are the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back in two series down by two games and winning three straight to win each series. They are the only two teams to do that since the MLB expanded the playoffs to four teams in both leagues in 1969.
And, in any case, any way you write it, winning six straight elimination games like that is EPIC no matter how many or little teams in the past have done that. It takes a lot of cujones to do that, and Posey and Cain, to me, are the leaders who instills this sense in the team that anything is possible. After all, it was the two of them talking at the celebration parade about returning to the World Series and winning it again. It was Cain who earlier this season exhorted his teammates: "Here, I'm going to keep battling for you. You keep battling for me." The Giants have been 85-56 since Cain made that statement, and won the NL Championship and earned another trip to the World Series.
Finally, it was very fitting that Holliday popped up to Scutaro for the last out. His dirty slide really pissed off the Giants, particularly Scutaro, who did not hit well against the Reds.
Also, Marco Scutaro won the NLCS Most Valuable Player Award for his stellar hitting, 14 hits in total in the NLCS, 6 runs scored, 4 RBI, and he struck out only one time in 27 AB, he had 2 walks. He's the second consecutive late season pickup to win the NLCS for us, Cody Ross being the other one. Speaking of Ross, Marco tied Ross's team record of hits in 10 straight games.
This is the 19th time the Giants have gotten to the World Series, second only to the Yankees. They get home advantage because the NL won the All-Star game
To quote Shankbone and repeat the sentiments, "The Giants Win the Pennant!"
As I've been saying for a number of years now: The Giants are the Team of the 2010 Decade.
Go Giants! Win it again!
Thursday, October 04, 2012
Your 2012 Giants are 94-68: NL West Division Champs, 2 of 3 Years
What an EPIC season! I've been covering that aspect of the season starting around the time that Matt Cain had the first ever Perfect Game in Giants franchise history. A simple search of my blog will bring up many of them, so I won't cover them here.
EPIC: Posey Batting Title
But I will cover recent ones that have happened. First and most of all was Buster Posey winning the official 2013 NL batting title, with the removal of the extra AB that would have qualified Melky for the title. Here is coverage from Baggarly, Schulman, and Pavlovic. He won with a .336 batting average and a strong push in the second half where the batted .385/.456/.646/1.102 (very Bondsian numbers) overall and finished much at the same pace, as since August 31st, his batting line is .382/.434/.527/1.062, which propelled him to the title, while McCutchen faltered and fell a lot and Melky was suspended and asked not to get the benefit of the rule that makes ineligible players eligible for the title.
It was an amazing end to a season where Bochy and the team had been hoping to get 100-110 games out of him IN TOTAL (he ended with 148 games: 111 at catcher, 29 at 1B, 3 at DH) because of his severe injury last season. Amazing also because this is his first full season as a player, after having last season taken away from him violently and unwarrantedly.
Buster became only the fourth catcher EVER in the NL's 137 seasons to win the batting title and the first NL catcher since Ernie Lombardi (a SF Bay Area native) in 1942. He is the second catcher in the majors since Lombardi to win it (Mauer has won it twice in the AL). He is the first Giants player to win the crown since Barry Bonds did it in 2004, here is the list of Giants who have have won the title (from Mercury):
And a nice, feel-good moment out of this was that Pence rounded up donations across the team to buy Posey an unspecified gift to commemorate his accomplishment (despite prodding from the media - Baggarly asked if it got good gas mileage - it was never disclosed what was given).
EPIC: Pitching Staff
Had we known that the 2012 Giants would have the first Giants staff since 1962 to have four 14-game winners (Vogelsong was one win short of making it four 15-game winners; he certainly did well enough on Wednesday), it would not have been too big a shock. That it happened without Lincecum is the big shocker, as it was Cain, Bumgarner, Zito, and Vogelsong who made up that quartet.
EPIC: Hitting Streaks
As reported by Baggarly, Scutaro's single in the last game of the season gave him a 20-game hit streak, the third such streak by a Giant this season - previously done by Pagan and Sandoval. This gave the 2012 Giants three players with 20-game hit streaks, the first time in any season in franchise history that such an event has happened (at least back 94 years for which there is full season date, so notes Baggarly). It was also the first time in the majors since 2003, when the Pirates and Blue Jays had those feats.
EPIC: Winning Streak Fluky But Still Interesting
Zito and the Giants had a streak where the team won his start for 11 straight starts, the first since 1992 when Bill Swift did it. While an oddity like a no-hitter where a confluence of events could lead to it happening for Zito and not one of the other starters, still, given his travails while a Giant, still, it is a nice streak, better than him losing 11 straight, for certain. And he did pitch well in 7 of those 11 starts, compiling a 3.92 ERA during that streak, so it is not like he didn't pitch well during that streak, he did OK. Still, 10 of the 11 games, the offense did its job and scored at least 4 runs in support.
Baggarly reported some interesting facts about Zito that I've seen for a while and finally touching on in my blog. He is now 125-7 in his career with at least four runs of support, including 40-3 as a Giant (means he was 85-4 with the A's). Unfortunately for Zito, our offense has not been that great for most of his time as a Giant, but it has been pretty good this season, even better in the second half. As Baggarly noted, Zito was 13-1 in starts with at least 4 runs of support in 2012, 14 games in total: he only had 37 of these starts over the previous five seasons as a Giant (meaning he was 27-2 previously with the Giants).
Other Tidbits of Info
EPIC: Posey Batting Title
But I will cover recent ones that have happened. First and most of all was Buster Posey winning the official 2013 NL batting title, with the removal of the extra AB that would have qualified Melky for the title. Here is coverage from Baggarly, Schulman, and Pavlovic. He won with a .336 batting average and a strong push in the second half where the batted .385/.456/.646/1.102 (very Bondsian numbers) overall and finished much at the same pace, as since August 31st, his batting line is .382/.434/.527/1.062, which propelled him to the title, while McCutchen faltered and fell a lot and Melky was suspended and asked not to get the benefit of the rule that makes ineligible players eligible for the title.
It was an amazing end to a season where Bochy and the team had been hoping to get 100-110 games out of him IN TOTAL (he ended with 148 games: 111 at catcher, 29 at 1B, 3 at DH) because of his severe injury last season. Amazing also because this is his first full season as a player, after having last season taken away from him violently and unwarrantedly.
Buster became only the fourth catcher EVER in the NL's 137 seasons to win the batting title and the first NL catcher since Ernie Lombardi (a SF Bay Area native) in 1942. He is the second catcher in the majors since Lombardi to win it (Mauer has won it twice in the AL). He is the first Giants player to win the crown since Barry Bonds did it in 2004, here is the list of Giants who have have won the title (from Mercury):
- Roger Connor, 1885 (first Giants career leader in homeruns in the NL; see my article on that here)
- Jack Glasscock, 1890
- Larry Doyle, 1915
- Bill Terry, 1930
- Willie Mays, 1954
- Barry Bonds, 2002
- Barry Bonds, 2004
- Buster Posey, 2012
And a nice, feel-good moment out of this was that Pence rounded up donations across the team to buy Posey an unspecified gift to commemorate his accomplishment (despite prodding from the media - Baggarly asked if it got good gas mileage - it was never disclosed what was given).
EPIC: Pitching Staff
Had we known that the 2012 Giants would have the first Giants staff since 1962 to have four 14-game winners (Vogelsong was one win short of making it four 15-game winners; he certainly did well enough on Wednesday), it would not have been too big a shock. That it happened without Lincecum is the big shocker, as it was Cain, Bumgarner, Zito, and Vogelsong who made up that quartet.
EPIC: Hitting Streaks
As reported by Baggarly, Scutaro's single in the last game of the season gave him a 20-game hit streak, the third such streak by a Giant this season - previously done by Pagan and Sandoval. This gave the 2012 Giants three players with 20-game hit streaks, the first time in any season in franchise history that such an event has happened (at least back 94 years for which there is full season date, so notes Baggarly). It was also the first time in the majors since 2003, when the Pirates and Blue Jays had those feats.
EPIC: Winning Streak Fluky But Still Interesting
Zito and the Giants had a streak where the team won his start for 11 straight starts, the first since 1992 when Bill Swift did it. While an oddity like a no-hitter where a confluence of events could lead to it happening for Zito and not one of the other starters, still, given his travails while a Giant, still, it is a nice streak, better than him losing 11 straight, for certain. And he did pitch well in 7 of those 11 starts, compiling a 3.92 ERA during that streak, so it is not like he didn't pitch well during that streak, he did OK. Still, 10 of the 11 games, the offense did its job and scored at least 4 runs in support.
Baggarly reported some interesting facts about Zito that I've seen for a while and finally touching on in my blog. He is now 125-7 in his career with at least four runs of support, including 40-3 as a Giant (means he was 85-4 with the A's). Unfortunately for Zito, our offense has not been that great for most of his time as a Giant, but it has been pretty good this season, even better in the second half. As Baggarly noted, Zito was 13-1 in starts with at least 4 runs of support in 2012, 14 games in total: he only had 37 of these starts over the previous five seasons as a Giant (meaning he was 27-2 previously with the Giants).
Other Tidbits of Info
- The Giants 94 wins match the seventh most wins in the San Francisco era, as they finished eight games ahead of the D-gers. It is the fifth time the Giants have won the title in Sabean's tenure as Giants GM (16 years) and the eighth time in San Francisco (meaning Sabean is responsible for 62.5% of the divisional titles in the 44 years we have had divisions). Sabean teams have won at least 90 games in 8 seasons out of 16, Bochy 2 of 6, but more importantly 2 of the last 3, and looking to do this for many more seasons. The San Francisco Giants have won 90+ games in 18 total seasons.
- Bochy noted, when asked by an LA writer about Posey's athleticism at 1B, "Oh, I believe he could play third base. He's got good hands with his athleticism, and he's got good awareness." That was an idea I had earlier this season, which makes more sense than having Posey play 1B, as many have suggested. For one thing, as well as he has hit this season, Posey is not considered above average as a bat at 1B. His bat is way above average at catcher, hence a lot of value is created in that way. He would also be as above average if he could play 2B, but one has to wonder how his severe ankle injury affected his movement plus, more importantly, 2B have been injured in plays before, and we have Panik looking good at coming up and being our starter there. Corner OF would also be good, as he has a great arm, but we would have to wonder about his mobility there. However, many a catcher have made the move to 3B OK, given arm and handling of speeding balls coming off bats, and his bat would be way above average there as well. Most importantly, Sandoval most probably will eat his way over to 1B at some point, and if not that, then it would be better to play Posey at 3B and keep Belt at 1B for his stellar defense there.
- Lastly, I wanted to end by pointing out DrB's great post on Buster Posey. I was going to write something similar, but more along the lines of how Posey is such a great leader. But heck yeah, DrB hit the nail on the head, Posey is a special player, and that example he used, of Pence and the team giving him a special gift, is exactly what illustrates this concept. It is, to borrow DrB's words, remarkable. I've never heard of this before either, not especially since the batting title winner usually wins some sort of car, so I have to think it was something very personal, as DrB says. Posey is an EPIC player, and it is most certainly a privilege to watch him and to be able to root for the young man. That is why I am hoping the Giants sign him to some huge long-term contract buying out a couple of his free agent years, though I'm not hopeful that it'll happen, as Posey is keenly aware of his value and that is why he ended up getting $6M for his bonus even though he was the 5th player selected in the draft. I just hope the two sides can come together and get it done, something long-term like the one Longoria got from Tampa Bay, but which will probably cost a lot more.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Your 2012 Giants: Trade for Marco Scutaro
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)