Your 2025 Giants: Rest of Giants Draft Picks

Thought I would write some thoughts on the rest of the draft.  The MLB reporter Maria Guardado nicely covered the picks here in this article.  Please read to learn more about the picks.  I will discuss what I think is the strategy with some of the picks, which were overdrafts. 

Your 2025 Giants: Losing Draft Picks Is Not So Bad

The Giants has been contemplating signing QO players like Adames and Burnes this offseason, which would cost draft picks, and with the signing of Adames, they have now lost their second and fifth round picks.

Signing Burnes as well as Adames would tthen cost the team its second, third, fifth and sixth selections, part of the price the Giants paid for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold while finishing 80-82.

I thought I would write on the odds of these draft picks ever amounting to a good player, given how much fans worry about losing draft picks.  Like I wrote almost 20 years ago when I analyzed the Michael Tucker punted pick, you are losing a lottery ticket with steep odds of winning, while gaining a MLB caliber player.

Giants 2018 Second Round Draft Pick: Sean Hjelle, RHP

The Giants selected University of Kentucky's Sean Hjelle, with their second round draft pick of 2018, second overall.  He's 6' 11" and there has been only one other pitcher that tall to pitch in major league history.

Looking over the drafted players, this is probably the first draft under Sabean where their first four picks were all around where they were ranked, at least ranked by MLB Pipeline in 2018 (I've usually used Baseball America, but everything is behind a paywall now).  Per Fangraphs, the first three picks.

• Joey Bart:  selected 2nd, ranked 6th Pipeline/3rd Fangraphs
• Sean Hjelle:  selected 45th, ranked 44th/53rd FG
• Jake Wong:  selected 80th, ranked 72nd/93rd FG
• Blake/Jake Rivera:  selected 106th, ranked 111th/worse than 130th overall FG 

Generally, the Giants select amateurs who are ranked far behind where they selected him in the draft, usually at least one round (30 picks) ahead of where he is ranked by talent.  

Giants 2018 First Round Draft Pick: Joey Bart, C

The Giants selected Georgia Tech's Joey Bart, C, with their first round draft pick of 2018, second overall.

Your 2018 Giants Draft: Final Thoughts

Thought I would give my final thoughts, with the draft on Monday, June 4.   Woke up early today so that I could leave work early and finish up this post before the draft.

Final (or last I can find) Mocks:

• MLB Pipeline (June 4th):  Both Callis and Mayo have the Giants selecting Joey Bart, catcher of the future, but has the Giants looking at Casey Mize, Joey Bart, Brady Singer, and Cole Winn.
• Fangraphs 3.0 (June 1st):  Fangraphs takes a very specific view.  First, they are sure the Giants are picking Bart.  Second, should the Tigers take Bart, the Giants would not select Mize, but instead would sign Cole Winn to a reduced deal, which would enable the Giants to sign a good prospect, like Tristan Casas or Sean Hjelle, with their second round pick.   
• Perfect Game, Version 4 (June 4th):  Got the Giants selecting Bart, but not Mize should he fall to them.  Also kicking the tires on Singer, Liberatore, and Bohm, plus the Winn if Detroit takes Bart scenario that everyone has latched onto.
• Minor League Ball (Sickels and gang):  There is a mock draft, but done by people volunteering to be each team's GM, so I always take with grain of salt, as you don't have a lot of info about why that person chose that prospect.  He/they selected Bohm, FYI.  I provide this link more because there are profiles on most of the top prospects there, that's of more value in my eyes. 
• Baseball America:  They no longer provide free access, someone collected all of the major ones and shared them in a Google Doc, BA Mock Draft 5.0 has, surprise, the Giants selecting Bart.
• Keith Law (same link as BA, someone collected and shared):  Sees the Giants selecting Cole Winn, the only mock draft to do that. 

Your 2018 Giants Draft: Mock Drafts and Draft Thoughts

With the Giants holding the second pick overall in the June draft, only a couple of weeks away, I thought I would go through some mock drafts, and discuss a few possibilities.  I will probably write up on the final mocks just before the draft. 

2015 Giants Draftees for First Ten Rounds

The first two days of the draft is over.  I've covered the first two picks overall, I'll cover the rest with a few comments in this post.  The selections were (ranks:  MLB.com 200, BA 500, Garrioch 400):

• Round 1.18:  RHP Phil Bickford (21; 27; 42)
• Round 1.31:  1B Chris Shaw (46; 45; 51)
• Round 2.61:  LHP Andrew Suarez (75; 73; 85)
• Round 3.95:  SS Jalen Miller (41; 35; 54)
• Round 4.126:  LHP Mac Marshall (118; 86; 146)
• Round 5.156:  CF Ronnie Jebavy (NR; 208; NR)
• Round 6.186:  CF Steven Duggar (123; 167; 158)
• Round 7.216:  3B Jose Vizcaino Jr. (NR; 214; 238)
• Round 8.246:  RHP Cory Taylor (NR; NR; NR)
• Round 9.276:  RHP David Graybill (NR; 446; NR)
• Round 10.306:  RHP Tyler Cyr (NR; NR; NR)

Giants 2015 Supplemental First Round Pick: Chris Shaw, 1B

The Giants selected with their second pick, the supplemental first round pick, 31st overall, that they got when Sandoval signed with Boston, Chris Shaw, who was an OF in college, but projected to be a 1B as a pro.  He is one of the legit power bats available, batting left while throwing right.

One mock had him selected in the first round, but most had him not selected in the first round.  There were a handful that had him picked in the supplemental first round, though, though not by the Giants.  Most agree that his was the best, or one of the best, college power bats available, and didn't note anything more than that, so this post will be much shorter than Bickford's.

CSNBA had a good overview profile of him of readily available information:

In 40 games for Boston College this season, Shaw led the team with a .319 batting average, 11 home runs and 43 RBI. He posted a .411 on-base percentage and a .611 slugging percentage. 

The junior was named All-ACC Second Team for the 2015 season. He earned All-ACC First Team honors as a sophomore in 2014.

Giants also do like prospects who wins awards and honors like these, as well.

Giants 2015 First Round Pick: RHP Phil Bickford

For their first pick of the 2015 draft, the Giants selected RHP Phil Bickford.  I'm going to be compiling information on him from Baggarly's BA and Merc article, CSNBA Staff report, and bits and pieces from various mocks I've been collecting (BA, FG, MLB.com).

The CSN report was nicely done, covering all the essentials (saves me the job of finding these readily available info elsewhere), so I will quote it here:

Bickford was ranked No. 27 on Baseball America's Top 500 Draft Prospects. 

Two years ago, Bickford was selected with the No. 10 pick by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Westlake Village (Calif.) Oaks Christian High School. Toronto was unable to sign him and he instead went to Cal State Fullerton for his freshman year. 

After one season at CSU Fullerton where he went 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA and posted 74 strikeouts in 76 innings pitched, Bickford transferred to the College of Southern Nevada to become draft eligible for 2015.

In his one year at Southern Nevada, Bickford went 9-1 with a 1.45 ERA and struck out 166 batters compared to only 21 walks in 86.2 innings pitched.

MLB.com ranked him #21, Minor League Ball's Garrioch ranked him #42, Fangraph's McDaniels ranked him #25 in his draftboard.

FYI, Baggarly has a great article regarding Barr's successes in filling out our infield with draft picks.   I highly recommend a read.

Your 2015 Giants Draft

I try to write about the draft every season.  Of course, it's important to the team to find good players, so that this dynasty can continue.  I also have a strong interest because of my draft study that I did long ago.  And, really, after the excitement of the Lincecum draft, listening to the broadcast over the internet, wondering whether he would fall to us or not, I got hooked.  Of course, that was a rare one, you really need a high pick to hope to have such an experience, and all you need is one or more teams going off mock to really mix things up, and make a mock, well, mockable.

I've gotten more involved over the years.  First, of course, I read the reports, saw the mocks.  Then I started tracking the names of players, their positions, and the various mocks by writing them down on paper.  Now I create spreadsheets so that I can view the evolution of how some players rise up the mocks, and others fall out of the first round.

There are usually some Giants rumors, but most seems to be off.  But you never know, the rumor could have been right, but the player got plucked before the Giants could pick the player.  Still, I've only seen one rumor come to fruition, Kiley McDaniels was the only draft expert to note that the Giants were interested in Christian Arroyo.

So my philosophy for the draft is to have some ideas who the better prospects are, particularly in the range where the Giants are selecting, and just follow along.  I will fall in love with some prospects, like Tuki and Grant Holmes (not the Dodgers!), but not get too hung up, as the Giants will go their own way, and, so far, successfully so.

2012 Draft: 22 Signings So Far

Including Stratton, there have been 22 signings in total (CSN Enteen; also has nice video of his first interview discussing his signing and other questions, seems like a very nice guy, good manners, well spoken) out of 40.  Here are the signings:

• #1:  RHP Chris Stratton ($1.85M, exactly slot)
• #8:  LHP Joseph Kurrasch
• #9:  OF Shilo McCall ($200,000, which was slotted for $125.6K; article has nice first person description of how Giants negotiated with him, also from his advisor)
• #12:  SS Jeremy Sy
• #13:  2B  Ryan Jones
• #15:  C Leonardo Rojas
• #16:  RHP Ian Gardeck
• #17:  RHP Christopher Johnson
• #18:  SS Matthew Duffy
• #19:  LHP Randall Zeigler
• #21:  C Benjamin Turner
• #22:  OF Brennan Metzger
• #23:  LHP Andrew Leenhouts
• #24:  OF Andrew Cain
• #25:  C Sam Eberle
• #26:  LHP Mason McVay
• #27:  LHP Chris Fern
• #28:  IF Joey Rapp
• #29:  OF Shayne Houck
• #31:  RHP Jason Forjet
• #32:  LHP Christopher Pickering
• #33:  RHP Brandon Farley

The Giants are currently overslot by $74.4K and will have to pay somebody(ies) from 2-10 that much less.  Still have picks 2-7 and 10-11 to sign, those are the highest picks left to sign.  14 and 20 are also unsigned as well.  All of 21 to 33 were signed except 30.

2012 Draft: Heavy on the Arms... Again

The Giants again went heavy with pitchers again in the draft, as has been their pattern throughout Sabean's tenure as Giants GM.  The difference this year is the predominance of college arms vs. high school arms.

Go to the MLB Draft Tracker on-line, click on Team and select Giants, to see all the players the Giants selected in the 2012 draft.  Players with some additional content are the players with more potential than other, the more content, the higher the potential.  These are the players with Full Scouting Reports:  Chris Stratton and Martin Agosta. There are the players with player comments in the tracker:  Steven Okert and Stephen Johnson.  These are the players with Scouting Video:  Shilo McCall, Matthew Duffy, Nolan Long, and Tyler Ferguson.

The MLB had an article focusing on the Giants focus on college pitchers in this draft.

Of the 40 players the Giants selected, only five of them were high school players -- four of whom were selected in rounds 37-40. The Giants selected more pitchers (21) than position players (19), including 14 on the third and final day of the Draft on Wednesday.
Stratton and several other Giants pitching draftees were noted for their velocity and power pitching, though Giants scouting director John Barr said that was not the team's intention coming into the Draft. 

"We weren't leaning towards that way," Barr said Monday after the Giants selected Stratton. "Are we always mindful of it? I think we're mindful of trying to add value to the organization." 

Of the 21 pitchers selected, 19 were college pitchers, including potential future starters Stratton, St. Mary's Martin Agosta (second round) and Creighton's Ty Blach (fifth), as well as relievers Steven Okert from Oklahoma (third), St. Edwards' Stephen Johnson (sixth) and Miami's Eduardo Encinosa (seventh). 

The lone high school player selected in the first 36 rounds of the Draft was outfielder Shilo McCall (ninth round) out of Piedra Vista High School in New Mexico. McCall is committed to playing college baseball for Arkansas in the fall, but has said he intends to sign with the Giants and turn professional.

Alex Pavlovic of the Merc blogged on the various earlier round draft picks.  Some key tidbits:

STEVEN OKERT, LHP, OKLAHOMA: The 6-foot-3 lefty had five saves and a 2.78 ERA this season. According to the MLB.com scouting report, he “has been lights out (as a closer) and is one of the main reasons Oklahoma has done so well this year. In pro ball, he will definitely come out of the bullpen and could make it to the Majors quickly.” 

TYLER BLACH, LHP, CREIGHTON: Blach, a 6-foot-1 southpaw, was selected 178th overall and is Creighton’s highest draft pick in 13 years. He was 6-6 in 21 starts and had a 2.76 ERA. According to his Creighton profile, Blach had a 4.2 GPA in high school and was a financial analysis major in college. 

STEPHEN JOHNSON, RHP, ST. EDWARD’S UNIVERSITY: The closer was selected 208th. He was a first-team Division II All-American after putting up a 1.45 ERA and compiling 18 saves. In 43 1/3 innings this season, Johnson struck out 74. According to reports, Johnson’s fastball touches TRIPLE digits, but he struggles with command sometimes. 

EDUARDO ENCINOSA, RHP, MIAMI: Went 3-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 24 appearances, all out of them out of the bullpen. He’s listed at 6-5, 242. 

JOSEPH KURRASCH, LHP, PENN STATE: The junior was selected 268th overall. He grew up in San Juan Capistrano and his Penn State profile lists him as a Giants fan, so he’s off to a good start. Also, he lists cholula hot sauce as his favorite food – another plus. On the mound he went 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 16 games, 11 of which were starts. 

SHILO MCCALL, CF, PIEDRA VISTA HIGH SCHOOL (NEW MEXICO):McCall is committed to Arkansas but said he plans to turn pro. “The first thing I did was go buy a Giants hat for me and my family,” McCall told The Daily Times in Famington. “Phase one of my dream is complete. Phase two is working like hell to get to the Giants.” 

TREVOR BROWN, C, UCLA: The Giants’ 10th-round pick hit .322 for UCLA this year. He has played third base, second base, first base and catcher in his two seasons at UCLA and has played shortstop in the past. As you know, the Giants have had success with athletic catchers.

BA noted all the Giants players who were ranked in the BA 500 list.  The Giants were near the bottom of the list, but that is not a big surprise:  in a prior study, I looked at where players were selected by the Giants compared to his rank in BA's Top draftees list, and found that the Giants typically drafted players at least a round or more before where BA had ranked him.  Here are the players drafted:

Giants (10): Chris Stratton (18), Stephen Johnson (63), Martin Agosta (106), Steven Okert (152), Ty Blach (194), Ryan Tella (201), Mac Williamson (236), E.J. Encinosa (322), Mason McVay (356), Trevor Brown (475).

These are there overall pick for these players: Chris Stratton (20; 2 picks ahead), Stephen Johnson (208; 145 picks after, or roughly 5 rounds later), Martin Agosta (84; 22 ahead, or roughly 1 round ahead), Steven Okert (148; 4 ahead), Ty Blach (178; 16 ahead), Ryan Tella (358; 157 after, or roughly 5 rounds after), Mac Williamson (115; 121 ahead, or 4 rounds ahead), E.J. Encinosa (238; 84 ahead, or roughly 3 rounds ahead), Mason McVay (808; or 452 after, or roughly 15 rounds after), Trevor Brown (328; 147 ahead, or roughly 5 rounds ahead).

BA notes on other picks, from their draft blog:

The fourth round saw a run on several pitchers who project best in the bullpen, starting with San Jose State righthander Zach Jones (Twins) to Xavier converted righthander Seth Willoughby (Rockies), Oklahoma lefthander Steven Okert (Giants), Utah righthander Tyler Wagner (Brewers) and Faulkner (Ala.) righthander Corey Black (Yankees).

Giants Thoughts

The players to be followed are the ones who had scouting reports of some sort or at least scouting videos.  Also, the players who are among the BA 500.

But frankly, after the first round, the odds are very against any of them ever even making the majors, let alone be useful, let alone be a good player.  The odds of most of these picks being a good player is significantly under 1%.

9th Round Example of Bad Probability

Let's take a look at the 9th round, from 1990-1999.  That's still seems low to most people, plus it was the one where Shilo was selected (nothing against him).  The numbers are bleak.

In those 10 years, there were 285 players drafted.  Unfortunately, I cannot tell who was signed and who wasn't, so I counted all of them; thus there could be some over counting.  Still won't matter.

In those 10 years, only 59 of them even made the majors.  Thats' 20.7%.  I then looked at players who had at least 162 games if position player, 30 games if pitcher, or essentially one year's worth of play.  Only 27 qualified there, 9.5% of picks.  Now lets look at those over 4.5 WAR:  only 9 of them, or 3.2%.  There are only 6 of them with over 9.0 WAR, or 2.1%.  My standard for a good player is 18.0 WAR and there were only 5 of them or 1.8%.

In other words, it will take approximately 57 years of selecting the #9 pick, on average, to find one good player, roughly 32 years to find at least a moderately good player (that's > 4.5 WAR).  It would take 5 years of these picks just to find a player who even makes the majors, 11 years to find a player who plays more than a year of baseball for you.

And it just gets worse with each round after that.

Bad But Not Automatic

Don't mean to be a downer on the draft, nor did I mean to discourage any draft pick that far back in the draft, though I know this might.  I just see so many people throwing themselves off the Golden Gate Bridge right now over the Giants draft, particularly for what they did after the first few rounds.  This, to me, is equivalent to obsessing over the Giants 25th player on the roster and declaring Sabean to be an idiot for his choices there.

The silver lining for the guys who are selected in the later rounds is that they all have talents that made them valuable enough for a baseball team to select them.  The key is that they need to apply themselves to their new profession and find a way to improve themselves despite the odds.  Bend the ear of any coach, at any time, to absorb information about baseball.  Get their advice and counsel.  Be a young man, but don't let it interfere with your prime objective:  making the majors.

And there have been many players drafted later.  Nolan Ryan was selected in the 12th.  And Albert Pujols was selected in the 13th.  And the most famous is Mike Piazza, so bad that he was selected as a favor for Lasorda in the 62nd round.

Giving Your Best

So there is talent back there.  I believe the difference is that some players make the most of their opportunity.  Not all of these players will make it, but as the saying goes, if you gave your all on the field, there is no more that you can ask of yourself, no matter the results.  You did your best.

But some are not being all that they can be.  Some will party out late a lot.  Some will abuse something.  Some will just drift through, not giving their all.  Some will not take advantage of the coaches, or worse, not even listen to the coaches.  Some will not run out every grounder.  Some will be half-hearted sliding into second base on the front end of a double play.

And a lot of them will do all that the right way and still not make it.  Still, if that player did all that he could do and left it all on the field, he will have nothing to be ashamed of.  He gave it his best.  That is all he can ask of himself.  It just wasn't meant to be.

2012 Draft: Selects RHP Martin Agosta in second round

From the MLB Live Draft Tracker, go to Round 2:

When the year started, scouts may have been more interested in going to St. Mary's to see third baseman Patrick Wisdom. They may have left more intrigued by Agosta, the team's Friday starter. Some of that is because while Wisdom scuffled, Agosta has excelled, using a solid three-pitch mix to succeed. 

He's not the biggest right-hander in the Draft, which will certainly scare off some, but he's shown an ability to run his fastball up to 94 mph while sitting comfortably at 92 mph. Above-average run and sink make it an even better pitch. Agosta's curve and changeup both have the chance to be solid Major League average pitches, and he has a solid idea of how to keep hitters guessing. 

Undersized right-handers always have a tougher time proving themselves, but with the way he's pitched, a team that's willing to buck that conventional wisdom should take a shot within the first few rounds.

There is also a video version of this MLB text.  Mayo ranked him 92nd on his Top 100 list.

From BA roundup:

84. Giants: Martin Agosta, rhp, St. Mary's: Added pitchability this spring, fastball at 92-94 at his best, chance to start?

BA might consider him a bit of an overdraft as he was ranked 106th on their Top 500 draft preview list.

From Sickels Top 100 blog:

91) Martin Agosta, RHP, St. Mary's: Solid low-90s fastball, made big strides with secondary stuff this spring and can remain a starter.

From Haft:

The Giants added another arm to their farm system when they drafted Martin Agosta from St. Mary’s College with the 24th pick in the second round, 84th overall. 

The junior righthander went 9-2 with a 2.18 ERA for St. Mary’s, and has a fast ball that can reach the mid-90′s, as well as a working change up and curveball. Despite having a smaller frame for a pitcher, scouts have been impressed with Agosta’s movement on his fastball and his command of his breaking ball. 

The Northern California native played at Jesuit High School in Carmichael, Calif., and is originally from Sacramento.

From Schulman:

The Giants drafted another college junior pitcher in the second round. They used the 82nd overall pick on St. Mary’s starter Martin Agosta, a Sacramento product who looks a bit like Tim Lincecum in stature, maybe a little taller. 

Agosta was 9-2 with a 2.18 ERA in 14 starts with 27 walks and 95 strikeouts in 103 1/3 innings for the Gaels. In his final start for St. Mary’s he held USF to one earned run in eight innings and outdueled Kyle Zimmer, who was drafted No. 5 overall by Kansas City. 

On Monday, scouting director John Barr insisted the team is not out to stockpile college pitchers but did say the front office was “mindful” that the team’s stock of high-ceiling arms took a hit with Zack Wheeler’s trade last year. 

And here is the ESPN Scouts Inc. writeup on Agosta:
Agosta doesn’t have size but he does have three pitches to profile as a potential starter, with significant promise if he has to move to the pen because of his stature. Agosta will sit 89-93, showing a little better than that but not sitting there, with a hard slurvy breaking ball at 79-81 that he can move around the zone and an above-average changeup that he doesn’t use often enough. 

The fastball has some late tailing life but not enough sink, and his stature means he can’t naturally get downhill plane on the pitch. Agosta cuts himself off slightly and comes a little bit across his body as a result, but he takes a long stride with good extension out front to partially alleviate the drawbacks of his height. The three pitches give him a mid-rotation starter ceiling, while he could be a top-tier reliever if the lack of fastball plane means he can’t start.

Schulman also included a link to Agosta's college profile website.  The school posted a news release on his being selected and noted that he's a life-long Giants fan, so he must be pretty jazzed.

Perfect Game does not release its mock drafts anymore, but since they provide names as part of the article, as labels, apparently they thought enough of him to include him in their third mock draft.  They noted that one could make the case for 50-60 players for the first 30 picks, and Agosta was among those in their conversation.

Here is Perfect Game's player profile:

(4/5/12): Undrafted in 2009 out of a Sacramento high school, Agosta went 3-6, 5.40 as a freshman for St. Mary’s, working primarily as a Sunday starter. He earned all-West Coast Conference honors a year later after assembling a solid but unspectacular 7-6, 2.81 record with 19 walks and 76 strikeouts in 90 innings. 

But it wasn’t until last summer, playing for the Cal Ripken League’s Bethesda Big Train, that Agosta firmly began to establish himself as an elite-level pitching prospect. He worked mostly in relief for the Big Train, mainly because of his heavy workload in the spring as a starter, but dazzled in that role, going 4-0, 0.99 with two saves. In 27 innings, he walked just three while striking out 30. The 6-foot-1, 180-pound righthander was a major contributor as the Big Train swept easily to Ripken League regular-season and playoff titles, and finished the summer as the nation’s No. 1-ranked summer-league team, according to Perfect Game. 

Just as dramatically, Agosta helped his own cause for the 2012 draft as he threw consistent strikes with a five-pitch repertoire, including a fastball that was consistently in the 91-93 mph range. He excelled at mixing all his pitches and throwing them with precision to every area of the striker zone, while also showing unusually good feel for his off-speed stuff. If anything, he got stronger for the Big Train as he pitched deeper into games. 

Inspired by his breakout summer-league success, Agosta has taken his game to another level this spring for the Gaels. His fastball has jumped into the 94-96 mph range, and the tilt and late life he typically gets on the pitch have only added to its effectiveness. He can pound his fastball down in the strike zone with regularity, and even cuts it effectively on occasion at 85-88. His cutter has been a nice complement to his slower, 78-80 mph slider, which he often won’t show hitters until late in a game, adding to its effectiveness. His curve is yet another solid breaking ball. 

The biggest change in Agosta’s development this spring into one of the nation’s premier college pitching prospects, though, has been in the improvement in his changeup. With his increase in fastball velocity, he has only added to the differential on his change, while maintaining the same arm speed on both pitches. He has not been afraid to throw his change in any count, and it has been extremely effective against both lefthanded and righthanded hitters. 

With the general improvement he has shown with his raw stuff, Agosta’s evolution into a top prospect has become somewhat complete as he has always been considered an excellent athlete (he is a scratch golfer), has a quick, loose arm and an extremely-competitive approach. Through his first seven starts this spring, Agosta has posted a 4-1, 1.56 record. In 52 innings, he has allowed 38 hits and 12 walks while striking out 48. He tied his career-high with eight strikeouts in his first outing of the season, and tied that mark twice more before fanning 10 in his latest start—ironically, his first loss, a 2-1 setback to Loyola Marymount. Agosto’s fast start this season helped St. Mary’s assume the national lead in team ERA at 2.03, five weeks into the season. Five straight losses by the Gaels, however, capped by a 14-13 midweek setback to Stanford, sent that mark soaring, but thanks mostly to Agosta, the Gaels are still on line to break the school record of 3.39, set just a year ago.

Giants Thoughts

Obviously, the Giants are not scared away by his slight stature - though his college bio lists him as 6' 1", 178 pounds and Perfect Game has him at 6' 1" and 170 pounds.   They have been fine with Lincecum and Romo.  And perhaps like Tim's athleticism helps him throw harder, maybe Martin's help him as well.

Based on the rankings, Agosta was a very slight overdraft, but this is where the Giants pick (84th) so if they didn't pick him now, he could be gone by their next pick (115th; which they used to pick Jonathan Williamson, who the MLB has no scouting report).  Though it appears that Perfect Games liked Agosta enough that he was in the conversation for the first round in their mock.  Like Stratton, sounds like he was not really on some teams' radar until the past year.  And like many Giants picks, he is considered athletic and competitive (and this is from the Perfect Game profile, not Giants PR).

Also like Stratton, his key abilities appear to be a broad mix of pitches that he can complement with a nice heater that gets regularly in the mid-90's range, keeping the hitters off-balanced.  In particular, his out pitch is his changeup - a favorite of the Giants, the change up was the key strikeout pitch for Jason Schmidt and Tim Lincecum.  His K/BB ratio is not as high but it was 4.0 last season and 3.5 this season, both excellent ratios (though not certain what is the level at which a pitcher is good in college, probably even depends on the league as well), with 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9.  He appears to be a pitcher, not just a thrower.

As one can see in the descriptions above, it is important to get a broad view of any prospect.  The early descriptions were actually pretty uninteresting and not compelling why the Giants selected him.  The ESPN and especially the Perfect Game rundown sold me how good he is right now as a prospect.

I like the pick.  Agosta appears to be advanced as a pitcher, which is something the Giants seem to go for, from my observations of recent drafts.  Obviously, heat helps, but the Giants appear to go for the combination of good fastball, good stuff, plus out pitches (slider in Stratton's case, changeup in Agosta's; these appear to be the out pitches for today's baseball), all that he can throw for strikes, wrapped up with a competitive player who is a pitcher and not a thrower.  Very nice pick, considering we are all the way out at the 84th pick, where it is very hard to find a good starting player back that far in the draft.  Hopefully he can at least be useful.  And I like picking Giants fans (nothing against other prospects), hope he can make his dreams come true.

2012 Draft: Giants Select RHP Chris Stratton with 20th pick

For information about Chris Stratton's career with the Mississippi State University Bulldogs, go to his webpage there. It has not been updated with his 2012 stats though.  This is Will "the Thrill" Clark's alma mater and Stratton is one of the 30 finalists for the Golden Spike award (won by Will Clark, Tim Lincecum, and Buster Posey previously).

His stats are located here, and he started out as a reliever then because he did well, was made a starter.  in 109.2 IP, he had a 2.38 ERA and gave up 84 hits and only 25 walks (2.05 BB/9) while striking out 127 (10.4 K/9), for a sterling 5.1 K/BB ratio, and he had a very good 0.57 HR/9, with a .211 BAA.   For just SEC conference games, he had a 2.05 ERA in 10 starts, 74.2 IP, with 60 hits and 11 BB (1.3 BB/9), while striking out 88 (10.6 K/9), for an even better 8.0 K/BB ratio, and great 0.24 HR/9, with .216 BAA.  2012 was his first good season, he wasn't that good in 2011.

Mayo in his mock had Stratton #15.  So did BP's Goldstein and BA's Callis.  Strangely, no real comments among them.  Minor League Ball's Garrioch had him #25 (also no comment), while Sickel's had him #13, noting he "has a great balance of upside and refinement."  The only reason he reached us is because a number of teams thought that they needed to draft position players, drafting ones lower in rank (per BA) and passing over better players/pitchers like Stratton.

Sickels ranked him 15th overall, noting "Throws hard, throws strikes, diverse arsenal, and you can make a case to rank him above Wacha and maybe even Stroman."  Sickels ranked Stroman 10th, Wacha 11th.

BA ranked him 18th on their Top 500 draft list (Stroman was ranked 10th; Wacha 8th).  In their Updated Top 50 Draft Prospects list, he was ranked 14th, up four spots.  Giolito was ranked 9th, Heaney 10th, Wacha 11th, Stroman 12th, and McCullers Jr. 13th.  He appears to have been the best ranked college pitcher still available when the Giants had to pick (only McCullers, a high school player, was higher and still available).

Andrew Baggarly tweeted:  "Stratton is a late bloomer who wasn't drafted out of high school but had a 17-K start against LSU. He throws 91-93 and touches 95."  "The Giants must believe that Statton can develop quickly. He was 22 years old as a college junior."

John Manuel tweeted:  "Chris STratton makes too much sense. Somewhat polished, somewhat raw, big stuff. New clay for the Ninja to mold #Giants"

Baseball America in their draft blog:

The Giants have a strong reputation for drafting pitchers in the first round and getting them to the big leagues. Now they hope Mississippi State righthander Chris Stratton can join a recent lineage that includes current San Francisco starters Matt Cain (2002), Tim Lincecum (2006) and Madison Bumgarner (2007). 

Stratton excelled this spring for the Bulldogs and edged out LSU's Kevin Gausman, the No. 4 overall pick tonight, as Southeastern Conference pitcher of the year. His stuff isn't quite as firm, with a fastball that usually sits 92-93 mph but touches the mid-90s. His breaking stuff sets him apart; he throws both a slider and a curveball, and both can be above-average, with the slider getting higher grades. 

While he doesn't have a 70 pitch, Stratton has lots of 55s and 60s as well as a fairly fresh arm. He fits right in for vice president of player personnel Dick Tidrow, who has overseen the Giants' pitcher development for 16 years.

Here is the report by Mayo from the MLB.com coverage of the draft, where Mayo ranked the Top 100:

Starting the year as a reliever, Stratton eventually took over Friday starting duties for Mississippi State. 

His success there has seen him shoot up boards as the Draft approached. Stratton has the chance to have an exciting four-pitch mix, all coming from the kind of ideal pitching frame scouts love. He throws a sneaky fastball, up to 94 mph with ease and with good movement. His slider is the better of his two breaking balls, a strikeout pitch with good rotation and bite. His curve is a notch behind, but it has the chance to be Major League average with a slurvy break to it. His changeup, also a future average offering, has some sink. He has above-average control, throwing all four pitches for strikes and showing an understanding of how to use his stuff well. 

Stratton has been a very consistent performer since moving into the rotation and his combination of size, stuff and pitchability have him moving into first night of the Draft conversations.

This lists him as 6' 3", 190 pounds.  And there is a video of him there, he was ranked 20th in that list.

SBNation has a profile of Stratton which was quoted from ESPN:

Stratton flashes three above-average to plus pitches with a chance for solid-average command and a near ideal, projectable frame. He will work with a 91-94 mph fastball that can get up to 96 and will show occasional life with good command to both sides of the plate.

Found a prospect site that gave a profile of Stratton:

Stratton is a likely first round talent that has thrived at Mississippi State this year as the Friday night starter. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and a Baseball America report had it sitting 94-95 in the first inning against Florida this year. 

He complements the fastball with a slider in the 82-84 range that, while inconsistent, shows flashes of late life and good break. He also throws a curveball with a similar plane and a change-up, both of which don't grade out as anything more than average. 

Initially used out of the bullpen, Stratton made the move to the rotation early in the year and has thrived. He's sporting a 10-1 record so far this year for the Bulldogs and he has put up great all-around statistics. Stratton has shown great command of his pitches and sports a 115/19 K:BB ratio in 95.2 innings this year. His overall ERA of 2.16 is stellar and opponents are hitting a minuscule .210 off of him. 

While Stratton isn't considered to be in the same tier as fellow college righties Kevin Gausman, Mark Appel and Kyle Zimmer, he is certainly one of the leaders of the second tier of college starters and should hear his name called near the back end of the 1st round. 

MLB Comparison: Zack Greinke 

Projected Draft Position: Late 1st Round

Don't know how good the site is though.

Perfect Games, however, is a well respected site and this is their profile information:

4/19/12: Stratton stamped himself as a legitimate first-round candidate for this year’s draft when he went head-to-head with Louisiana State righthander Kevin Gausman in the opening game of the Southeastern Conference schedule, and actually outpitched one of the three leading candidates to go No. 1 overall. Both pitchers worked 8-2/3 innings in what may have been one of the best pitching duels of the 2012 college season, with Stratton striking out 17 and Gausman countering with 11. Each allowed four hits, with Stratton walking two and Gausman four. Neither pitcher was ultimately involved in the decision as they both exited the game in the ninth with the score deadlocked at 1-1. Mississippi State looked like it might win the tightly-played contest by scoring a run in the top of the 10th on a home run by catcher Mitch Slauter, but LSU rallied with two in the bottom half of the inning against Bulldogs reliever Caleb Reed for a 3-2 victory. The 17 strikeouts recorded by Stratton were the most by a Mississippi State pitcher in 20 years—or since lefthander B.J. Wallace, the third overall pick in the 1992 draft, fanned 19 in an NCAA regional encounter. A large contingent of high-level scouts took in the Stratton-Gausman showdown, in what was Stratton’s first start of the season after four relief appearances, and many came away talking him up as a legitimate first-rounder. 

His fastball was a steady 92-94 mph, peaking at 95, but the difference-maker in his dominant showing was a nasty swing-and-miss slider that Stratton has added to his repertoire and was his primary strikeout pitch. He threw the pitch consistently from 85-87 mph. Stratton has also resorted this spring more to a two-seam fastball vs. a four-seamer, and has responded by going 7-0, 2.98 with 78 strikeouts in 57 innings. He has walked 16 while allowing 45 hits. 

His performance to date has been a significant upgrade from his first two seasons at Mississippi State, when he served as a weekend starter but went only a combined 10-10, 5.25 with 152 strikeouts in 154 innings. As a sophomore, he was an unimpressive 5-7, 5.21—hardly a tipoff that he might become an elite-level prospect for the 2012 draft. Even last summer in the Cape Cod League, pitching for champion Harwich, Stratton was regarded as no better than 10th-best prospect on a very deep Mariners staff after going 1-1, 2.18 with two walks and 16 strikeouts in 21 innings, but he may have provided a sign of things to come in his final outing of the summer when he shut down Cotuit for eight innings on just 85 pitches. His fastball was mostly in the 88-93 range on the summer. 

Stratton has always had a good feel for pitching and adapted well in the fall to changes in his style and approach to his craft. Not only did he add a deadly slider to his mix and resort to getting more movement on his fastball by emphasizing a two-seamer, but he also changed his delivery when working from the stretch. The payoff has been quite dramatic, and has already elevated Stratton from a potential third- to fourth-rounder at the start of the 2012 season to a potential first-rounder. The addition of a slider not only provides him a second dominant pitch, but essentially has solidified his case to be a starter down the road as he now has four solid pitches for the role, including a curve and changeup as his No. 3 and 4 pitches. He uses his changeup, an 83-mph offering, mainly to counteract lefthanded hitters. 

At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, Stratton has an ideal pitcher’s frame. He also has a quick arm and a very easy, clean delivery that he repeats consistently. If anything, he just needs to work on the command of his fastball.

Hank Schulman filed this blog post on the new draft pick:

Stratton, 21 and a native of Tupelo, Miss., was 11-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 17 games for the Bulldogs, including 12 starts. The 6-foot-3, 190-pounder struck out 127 batters in 109 2/3 innings to win Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Year. 

“He has a four-pitch mix,” Barr said. “He can throw breaking balls for strikes. His fastball goes anywhere from 90 to 95. He really competes on the mound.” 

Stratton is a late bloomer who was not drafted out of high school but developed phsyically and on the mound at Mississippi St. He now has a chance to join a rotation stocked with first-rounders Madison Bumgarner, Tim Linceucm and Matt Cain. 

“Those guys are outstanding pitchers,” Stratton said in a conference call. “Just to be on the same team with them is a blessing. This is the kind of organization I want to be a part of, which puts an emphasis on pitching. I hope I’ll be able to learn from those guys.” 

Stratton also looks forward to celebrating with his aunt and uncle, Sharon and Gaines Dobbins, who live in San Francisco. Gaines is a chef who bikes to Giants games. 

Though draft-watchers assumed the Giants would select a college pitcher to replenish the system with another fast-track arm, Barr said that as usual the team drafted the best player available. 

“Our board was mixed,” he said. “We had both high school and college pitchers and position players. Depending on how it went, if (Stratton) had not been there, whether we would have taken a pitcher or not, I’m not so sure.” 

Stratton first caught the Giants’ attention at the Cape Cod summer league last year. How quickly he reaches majors depends on many factors, starting with how quickly the Giants can sign him and how many innings the organization wants him to throw this summer.

Giants seem to like players who do well in the Cape Cod league.  The main reason for that is that this league uses wooden bats, while college players use aluminum (and other composite) bats.  This basically repeats what I heard Barr say on KNBR during his interview.

I would also add that one detail that is missing but important is that Barr noted that one reason the Giants really liked Stratton was because he knew how to pitch with his other pitches when his fastball wasn't working, emphasizing his four-pitch mix as another key, as he could turn to his breaking pitches.  It was also noted that he pitches aggressively against hitters and is athletic.  One of the KNBR hosts (Ray Woodson) also noted that Stratton was born in Elvis' hometown.

Matt Garrioch provided a PDF of his book on-line and he rated Chris a 40 for floor and 60 for ceiling, using scouting grading.  He could be good, though not great, by that grading (80 is best).

Giants Thoughts

From the above research, I like the pick.  Seems like he was the highest ranked player on the board, other than McCullers, but Stratton is a college pitcher and McCullers a high school pitcher, and thus closer to contributing to the major league club.  If he can make the climb to the majors in 3-4 years, that would be great, he would be around 25-26.  Though Baggerly noted that the Giants might be aggressive in moving him upward, since he's already 22 YO, so perhaps as early as 2 years, age 24, though that would be very aggressive.  I think 3-4 years is more realistic, only the best pitchers can climb within 2 years of their draft.  But who knows?

Not that he's on par with Lincecum, but he sort of reminds me of Timmy.  Of course, he's much larger than Tim will ever be.  But like Timmy, he was really searching for the key to pitching until his last college season, when he added a devastating slider as his strikeout pitch, and did so well that he was nominated for the Golden Spike Award.  In both cases, they both learned a pitch that allowed them to dominate college hitters to a great degree.  He did so well that he was named SEC Pitcher of the Year.

While Stratton does not throw with the velocity of Lincecum, he has four pitches that he can throw for a strike.  Two are above average already and the other two look like they will be solid average pitches in the pros.  He has very good command of his pitches, as illustrated by his 5.1 K/BB overall, but especially his 8.0 K/BB when facing SEC competition, particularly as the Friday starter.  He has a good feel of the game, and is able to adjust when one of his pitches, like his fastball, is not working, allowing him to continue to be effective.  So while he can throw in the mid-90's, he sounds like he is already a pitcher already, instead of a thrower.  On top of that, it sounds like he has good stuff, that helps pitchers strike out batters.

His body is considered one of those ideal pitching bodies, you know, the kind that Dick Tidrow loves to drool over.  As many of the Giants prospects seem to be described as, John Barr described him as athletic.  He's old for the league though, so some of his dominance has to be taken with a grain of salt, as he's already 22 YO, though only a college junior.  Still, an 8.0 K/BB against the best competition is still superlative.

Hard to say what he'll be, but I like that he has such strong command of his pitches, that will bodes him well in the pros.  Sounds like he should be at least a middle rotation starter and potentially a #2 starter if he can develop to his potential.  And that will be good enough and timely, as Vogelsong and whoever takes over for Zito after the contract (Surkamp?  Hacker?) might need replacing by then.  And given Lincecum's predilection for short contracts, potentially replacing him too if he decides he wants to leave, but only after another contract into his free agent years.  At minimum, I think that he can be on par with how good Zack Wheeler could be in the majors, and perhaps even arrive not too long after Wheeler, making him a good replacement for Wheeler in the farm system.

2012 Amateur Draft

I was able to find the following mock drafts and Top prospects lists just before the draft:

• Baseball America's Jim Callis's mock
• MLB's Jon Mayo's mock
• BP's Kevin Goldstein's mock
• John Sickel's mock
• John Sickel's Top 100
• Baseball America's Top 500 list

Giants Thoughts

I will start off with a quote from one source that has put their mocks behind their paid wall, Perfect Games.

Due to the lack of a clear cut No. 1 prospect, many have unfairly labeled the 2012 draft crop as weak. I would contend that the available talent base is sound, but don't be surprised to see teams take players earlier than where they have been projected since you could make an argument for 50-60 different players to be selected among the top 30 picks.  

The biggest wildcard remains Lucas Giolito, who I don't have projected to be selected in the first round. I won't be surprised if he is taken early by a team that has seen enough of him in the past, which will indicate that they are confident in his overall health, but history suggests that players, particularly pitchers, that suffer injuries and subsequently don't pitch in the weeks (or months) leading up to the draft typically fall. In fact, things are so quiet on that front that some have speculated that he may have a deal in place with a team, thus not needing to share medical reports more openly.

And that gels with what I've been reading in other places, that while there is no clear-cut top prospect, there is a deep well of talent that can fall almost anyplace in the first couple of rounds.

Mayo in his latest mock (first and only full first round mock) projects that the Giants are looking at high school arms, and Brian Johnson is his projected Giants pick, because Johnson has pitched well of late and could be quick to the bigs.  (Mayo was the one who turned me on to the possibility that we could draft Lincecum, though he thought we would pass on him and select Daniel Bard, who ended up with Boston later in the first round)

Mayo noted in his prior mock, covering only the top 20, that "the Giants will discuss college hitters and high school pitchers" for this pick.  He noted that Nick Travieso, Lance McCullers, and Walker Weickel should all get a look, but the power of Richie Shaffer, who can play the corner infield positions, might be too intriguing to pass up, and so he projected Shaffer in that mock.

Mayo no longer projects that the Dodgers to select Travieso with the 18th pick (in fact he falls out of the first round), so he could be available by the Giants pick.   He had projected the Rockies to take Piscotty 10th but now have him falling to 30th to the Yankees.

BA's Callis says his best guess (in his 4th and final mock draft) is that the Giants will go with a high school arm, such as Ty Hensley or Nick Travieso, Zach Eflin or Walker Weickel (the last three of whom are RHP from Florida), and he ended up projecting the Giants to select Travieso.  He projected the Giants to select Travieso in all his mocks.  He also noted that if Shaffer or Stephen Piscotty is still available, the Giants could look to upgrade their offense.

Callis, however, projects Shaffer to be selected 16th by the Nationals, Piscotty to be selected 19th by the Cards, leaving only the pitchers.  And he projects Ty Hensley to be selected by the Dodgers 18th.  He had Eflin going 25th, Weicker 30th.

As noted, Callis also projected Nick Travieso in his 3rd mock.  He had the A's selecting McCullers with their 11th pick, Indians selecting Richie Shaffer with their 15th pick, Dodgers selecting Ty Hensley with their 18th pick.  Piscotty was 23rd, Eflin 30th, and Weickel 31st.  This was done just last Friday, June 1st.

BP's Goldstein also projects the Giants to select Ty Hensley.  He also noted Walker Weickel as a possbility.  He sees McCullers selected by Toronto #17.   He has Shaffer picked #23 and Piscotty 30th.  He does not list Travieso, Eflin, or Weickel, so they all would be available to the Giants at their pick, if they want them.

Sicke's just released his mock draft today.  He also has the Giants selecting Travieso, noting that the "sturdy hard-throwing high school arm" seems like a good bet for them.  He also notes that Ty Buttrey, Walker Weickel, Zach Eflin, Shane Watson, and Lucas Sims are all logical here too.  He noted that if they want a bat, "Gallo or Seager would make sense."  He has Shaffer going 11th to A's, McCullers going 9th to Marlins, Hensley to Dodgers.

His partner, Matt Garrioch has the Giants selecting Andrew Heaney, LHP for Oklahoma.  "Could be one of the quicker players to reach the bigs and is a safe bet to be a #3 starter or better."  He has Shaffer going 11th to A's as well ("best college hitter"), McCullers #15 to Indians, Hensley #23 to Cards

Sickels also provided list by talent.  Here are the names noted above in the mocks, plus some other interesting names that might come into play for the Giants:

• Lucas Giolito, HS RHP, #9, #2 for  him if no injury (reports I have read are that he could fall far due to elbow injury; Mayo do not see him in the Top 20)
• Lance McCullers, HS RHP, #12
• Andrew heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State, #17
• Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson, #18
• Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State, #20 (Giants pick so I thought I would highlight)
• D.J. Davis, HS OF, #21 (again, close to Giants pick)
• Stryker Trahan, HS C-OF, #22 (again, close to Giants pick)
• Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford, #23
• Ty Hensley, HS RHP, #24
• Victor Roache, OF, Georgia Southern, #25 (I've seen his name in Giants draft discussions)
• Joey Gallo, HS 3B-1B, #27 (For some reason his name pops out to me, I must have read about him at some point; Sickel's mock came out before I wrote this comment)
• Matt Smoral, HS LHP, #28 (Similarly, plus power lefty, Giants like those)
• Mitch Brown, HS RHP, #30, Throws hard, throws strikes, diverse arsenal, great makeup, stock rising. I like him better than many of the warmer-weather HS arms with more press.  University of San Diego commitment (Looking at names after 20, this description reads like a checklist of things Giants like to see from their pitchers, so I included him).
• Nick Travieso, HS RHP, #33 Notes Great fastball/slider combo, and that his command is improving.
• Walker Weickel, HS RHP, #34
• Zach Eflin, HS RHP, #35

BA also released the Top 500 listing, here are the names and ranking:

• Lucas Giolito, #9
• Lance McCullers Jr., #13
• Deven Marrero, #14
• Andrew Heaney, #17
• D.J. Davis, #20
• Richie Shaffer, #21
• Victor Roache, #22
• Ty Hensley, #23
• Matt Smoral, #24
• Stephen Piscotty, #26
• Stryker Trahan, #27
• Zach Eflin, #31
• Joey Gallo, #33
• Walker Weickel, #37
• Nick Travieso, #40  (BA must have inside info to have Giants select him in every mock and yet they rank him so far back)
• Mitch Brown, #44

And, of course, BA provided an updated Top 50 listing today, so here are the rankings for the above, kept in the same name order:

• Lucas Giolito, #9
• Lance McCullers Jr., #13
• Deven Marrero, #15 (fell one)
• Andrew Heaney, #10 (rose 7 spots)
• D.J. Davis, #20
• Richie Shaffer, #22  (fell one)
• Victor Roache, #24  (fell two)
• Ty Hensley, #21 (rose two)
• Matt Smoral, #25  (fell one)
• Stephen Piscotty, #27  (fell one)
• Stryker Trahan, #28  (fell one)
• Zach Eflin, #33 (fell two)
• Joey Gallo, #23 (quite a jump up, 10 spots)
• Walker Weickel, #38  (fell one)
• Nick Travieso, #30  (jumped up 10 spots, but still far from the Giants #20; then again, rankings had Panik in the 40's and beyond)
• Mitch Brown, #44

Mayo has his top 100 here.

• Lucas Giolito, #8
• Lance McCullers Jr., #13
• Deven Marrero, #14
• Richie Shaffer, #16 
• Andrew Heaney, #17
• Stephen Piscotty, #18 
• D.J. Davis, #21
• Zach Eflin, #25
• Ty Hensley, #26
• Victor Roache, #27
• Matt Smoral, #28
• Stryker Trahan, #29
• Walker Weickel, #31
• Nick Travieso, #32
• Joey Gallo, #33
• Mitch Brown, #51

There are also some pre-draft buzz, here is one from Mayo, this is the MLB draft news area, Baseball America has a section on the draft, Sickels has a discussion plus will open up a new thread, plus I would recommend reading all the mock drafts, there are usually some discussion about the vagaries of this draft.  And of course there are all the tweets with late minute rumors.  Strongly suggest checking out Twitter and view the show on MLB.com.  

It's Inconceivable!

It is almost impossible to guess who the Giants will pick with a pick this late in the first round, even in the first 20.  Invariably, there will be teams ahead of the Giants who will go off the script that the mock drafts have them picking.  That then dominoes down to the Giants pick.  Who knows who is the Jeter or Lincecum among the Top 20 who may fall into Sabean's lap down that deep (two picks that were expected to be gone by the time it was for Sabean's team to pick).

In addition, the Giants often goes off script from what the prognosticators had them picking.  Daniel Bard was the popular choice for the pick the Giants used to get Lincecum.  Most the pickers had them picking a hitter when they ended up with Bumgarner, like Mills.  And nobody had the Giants picking Brown or Panik, thinking that both were more likely to be picked in the supplemental first round, though I would note that someone had the Giants selecting Brown in one of the early mocks, but he fell when he was injured.  Many had the Giants going for a number of HS starting pitchers for the Panik but they were all selected by the pick, so perhaps Panik was the consolation prize.  One can never tell when a team will go off the script.

That is why I felt I should include Lucas Giolito.  Very high ranked but his injury might push him back, depending on the picker's opinion of how injured he is.  Callis thinks he'll be selected by Blue Jays #17, Goldstein #12.

I've seen a number of these names on DrB's blog in this various discussions regarding the draft.  Hensley is a name I saw a lot in his discussions regarding who the Giants will pick.   Roache too.  He and Shankbone have discussed a lot of the suspects there.  Shankbone also ran the Sickel's mock draft for the Giants, and selected Ty Hensley with his first pick.

So the likely suspects, based on the mocks are Ty Hensley and Nick Travieso, with Zach Eflin and Walker Weicker as other common names noted.  That said, someone higher like Lucas Giolito or Lance McCullers Jr. or Deven Marrero or Andrew Heaney might fall to them, as the Giants, at least under John Barr, appears willing to draft players whose stock had fallen prior to the draft or who might have fallen to the Giants pick and they had rated him higher.

Giants Get 6th Pick of 2009 Draft

According to Baseball America (see discussion here) the Giants have the 6th pick overall in 2009. They beat out the Braves, who tied them, via the first tie-breaking, which is, who had the worse record the year before.

Here are some names that I've seen bandied about on MLB.Com by Jonathan Mayo:

• Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, University of North Carolina: This year's Draft was big for college first basemen types, especially those who hit left-handed. Ackley could help continue the tradition with a sweet swing that has enabled him to hit .405 as the Tar Heels entered Super Regional play this weekend.
• Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant HS, Fla.: A five-tooler and two-way threat, Givens can do it all on a baseball field. He's an extremely athletic infielder with a plus arm. That comes in handy on the mound, where he throws in the low 90s.
• Ryan Jackson, SS, Miami: The Hurricanes lost many top hitters in this year's Draft, but Jackson will be around to anchor the lineup. A true shortstop, Jackson has led Miami with a .374 average entering Super Regional play, to go along with a .441 OBP and .528 SLG.
• Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State: If you were going to pick the top college arm in the Draft, it might be this guy. The All-American went 8-3 with a 1.57 ERA for San Diego State, allowing just 61 hits in 97 1/3 IP (.181 average against), walking just 16 and striking out 133.
• Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, Ga.: It's looking like the Georgia high school ranks will be well represented yet again in 2009. Tate might be one of the best position players from the high school crop next year, he's a toolsy outfielder who's also a top-notch football player, just like his father, former NFLer Lars Tate.

However, it is unlikely that the Giants would get Stephen Strasburg, as he has been the concensus #1 pick for the 2009 draft, so he would have to really flub things up in 2009 or injury himself severely, for him to be available when the Giants pick 6th.

The Ghosts of Giants Drafts: 1984 Draft

I'm looking to update my draft study with the draft data that Baseball-Reference.com now provides at their excellent website. I get AB and OPS data for all players plus ERA and WHIP for all pitchers, which I just realized is not that good for judging pitchers easily as there is no way to easily assess how long a career they have had, other than by how many games they have won or loss or saved, or tangentially by how many ABs they get. So I will have to re-think whether I will try to update my study now.

If I did update it, it will take a while to compile everything, plus then time to analyze the data, and I thought while I'm collecting the data, I can stroll through memory lane and list some names of past Giants draftees, and give some commentary on what I remember plus what could have been.

1984 Draft

Today, I look at the Giants 1984 draft. This is the first draft where I can remember thinking the Giants blew it. They selected Alan Cockrell when I looked at the next player selected and wonder why they didn't select Mark McGwire. McGwire did so many things at USC and Cockrell, well, he was known more for being a QB, at least, that's what it seemed like to me.

Just think how different things could be had the Giants selected Mark McGwire. For one thing, would the Giants have selected Will Clark, another 1B, the following year? And risked another Willie McCovey/Orlando Cepeda situation? Or more possibly, would they would have corrected a mistake made a few years before when they were unable to sign him and draft/sign Barry Bonds? There were other names right around there, Bobby Witt, Barry Larkin, Pete Incaviglia, but Bonds could have been their choice if we had McGwire already. The main question is would Tom Haller, who didn't sign him the first time (he says its a myth, but reports/rumors back then were that the Giants were $5,000 apart from Bonds, offering $50,000 when Bonds wanted $55,000, and thus Bonds didn't sign and went to school instead).

What if we had Bonds and McGwire in the lineup from 1986 to 1992? Could we have won throughout most of that period? Could we have won it all then? Impossible to know for certain, but think about the possibilities.

Fantasy Baseball

While both started playing in the majors in 1986, Clark played most of the season in the majors, while McGwire was mostly in the minors. However, from 1987 on, they were both regular starters. I won't argue the relative merits of either here, but assume that their impact offensively would have been very similar.

And think how that might have affected the A's. Without McGwire available, their next best choices after him were Shane Mack, Oddibe McDowell, and maybe Scott Bankhead. Would have been quite a drop in value, no? And the Bash Brothers could have been Bonds and McGwire in the Orange and Black.

Then the Giants OF could have been much different for their playoff run. They might not have traded for Candy Maldonado, though at that point, who knows if the Giants were ready to bring Bonds up; however, he did well enough for the Pirates to bring him up in 1986. And he played CF his first season plus part of the next, before settling in LF. That would fit in well with Giants history, Leonard was traded away in 1988, opening LF for Bonds. Meanwhile, he would have played CF with Chili Davis in RF, Gladden was traded to the Twins in 1987. Thus, instead of just having 1993, we could have had something like 1993 from 1987 to 1993.

Believe it or not, Bonds would have been a downgrade from Candy, who had a 127 OPS+ in 1987 vs. Bonds 114 OPS+. But after that, Bonds was on an uptrend while Candy went down, which could have kept the Giants in contention in the period from 1990 and 1992. Who knows, if the team was successful enough, Lurie might have never sold, we might not even have AT&T Park.

Bonds in LF would have ramifications for the 1989 World Series team. Would the Kevin Mitchell trade still have been done? Possible so, because he was a starting 3B when we got him and played mostly 3B for us for the first couple of years. And his range factor and fielding percentage wasn't all that bad there, so it could have worked long-term except then where would Matt Williams play, if not at 3B?

Ah, that's the fantasy I've had since Williams became a regular, what if they kept him at SS? Can you imagine a lineup with Matt Williams, Kevin Mitchell, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds? The only question would be, with Bonds around, would Candy been around? The OF would have been Leonard, Bonds, Davis, with no space for Candy, so would he been traded or even not trade for in the first place?

Still, imagine a lineup with Terry Kennedy catching, Mark McGwire at 1B, Robby Thompson at 2B, Kevin Mitchell at 3B, Matt Williams at SS, Bonds in LF, Brett Butler in CF, and somebody acquired to play RF? Wouldn't that been one of the greatest HR hitting lineups in history?

Still doesn't beat the best "What if" scenario for the Giants, though: what if the Giants had outbid the Braves for Hank Aaron? They were both bidding for his services and just got beat (win some lose some; they barely beat out another team for Willie Mays). Chew on that one for a while.

After Cockrell

The Giants actually did OK with their next pick, selecting Terry Mulholland, whose signature play still plays delightfully in my memory: dribbler to the pitcher firstbase side, and as pitcher and hitter race towards 1B, Mulholland realizes that the ball is stuck in his glove, and he's losing the race to the bag, so he did what he had to do, he threw the glove, with the ball in it, to the firstbaseman to get the out.

But they struck out in the rest of the draft, which, by the way, is not that out of the ordinary for most teams, so that's why it's hard to discern when a team is actually just bad at picking or just dealing with the low odds of the situation. With low odds of finding even useful major league players, teams will find some years to be shutouts. The only drafteee besides Mulholland out of the 26 total picks to experience anything beyond a cup of coffee call-up was Tony Perezchica, who got all of 101 AB. There were two who came up for a cup of coffee: Stu Tate and aforementioned Alan Cockrell also got a taste of the majors as well.

Moving Ahead with Study

P.S. I think I will give it the old college try and see what I can do with the data, even if it's not good for pitchers. With this dataset, I can do more analysis on high school vs. college type of analysis, plus, with my old set of data, I still have the designation of whether they are good, useful, or not, as the case may be, so I can use that as a guide and finetune up or down with the baseball-reference data.

I will still expand the years so that my study is comparable with the Baseball Prospectus study that came after my study. My point, which was not refuted by the Baseball Prospectus study, or any study that I've seen since, is that the distribution of talent availability plus the difficulty in identifying those who will make the majors, makes it very unlikely that any team will find a good major league player with even a late 1st round draft pick. My study found that only approximately 10% of draftees become good major league players out of the picks 21-30 overall in the draft between the years of 1986 and 1998.

Thus, a team could skip a pick, like the Giants did with the Tucker signing, and not materially hurt their development of major league players from their farm system. Given that the team has been almost totally rebuilt from the farm system in the years since provides strong evidence that my conclusion was not incorrect.

Sabean Deserves Chance to Finish Job

That we did it while still trying to win with Bonds is testimony to Sabean's vision for the future. As much as fans like to deride Sabean's efforts and results, and recently a Baseball America writer did just that, find me a better pitching rotation than what we have, made up young pitchers? Of all the trades made, as of right now, did he not keep the right ones when it counted?

And despite the cries of fans over our lack of position player development early this sesaon, our lineup actually looks like it's shaping up nicely over the next few years, with Lewis, Sandoval, Posey, and Villalona being the core hitters, and Burriss, Frandsen, Bowker, looking like OK supplemental hitters, plus Noonan, Fairley, maybe Rodriguez, Gillaspie, also contributing at some point in the near future.

That is why I have been preaching patience with seeing how Sabean's efforts are developing and not throwing the baby out with the bath water. I said I was happy he got a two year extension because then we get a chance to see him develop what we got further. After year one, there are a lot of positives and I'm gladder than ever they kept him.

I'm at the point where I would be willing to give him another two years but managerially there is no need to do that now, the Giants can do that in mid-2009, after another half year of seeing how things turn out. Plus, I now vaguely recall someone saying the Giants have an option on Sabean for 2010, so that would make it even easier if true, use the full 2009 season to see how the team develops and pick up his option at the end of the year if things are still developing nicely, don't if not.