Your 2015 Giants: Trade for Mike Leake

Breaking news:  the Giants have traded for SP Mike Leake from the Reds, a player who they have coveted for a long time.  Extra Baggs has an account:

Baggs:

Leake, 27, was 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 21 starts for the Reds – numbers that the Giants did plenty to inflate when they scored nine runs against him on May 16. He is a ground ball machine whose strike-throwing ways should translate extremely well to AT&T Park. He’s also a perennial Gold Glove candidate and his hitting prowess will give even Madison Bumgarner a run for his money. 

The Giants have long coveted Leake, going back to when the San Diego native was the eighth overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Arizona State. Giants scout Doug Mapson, who signed Greg Maddux back when he worked for the Cubs, said he has only written a Maddux comparison once to another amateur player. It was Leake. 

Leake also knows Giants manager Bruce Bochy because he played with the manager’s son, Brett, along with Stephen Strasburg, on a travel ball team in his youth. Leake even grew up a Giants fan because of his father, whose favorite player is Willie Mays. All of this might be a factor after the season, since Leake is a free agent and the Giants planned on pursuing him over the winter even if they didn’t acquire him via trade. Now they get two months to make an attractive case while employing his services as they attempt to defend their World Series title.

The Giants traded two prospects:  corner infielder Adam Duvall and RHP Keury Mella.  It is expected to be the only deal done before the trading deadline (Morse was just DFAed by the Dodgers, so he'll be available in 10 days for free).  The Giants have not announced any other personnel moves other than that Tim Hudson will not be in the rotation now.

Your 2015 Giants: Enough With the Duvall Talk!

I've been seeing a lot of talk about bringing up Duvall because of his hot hitting.  Here's where sabermetrics comes to the rescue, from the hype.

ogc thoughts

First off, I have to state that I have nothing against Adam Duvall.  I like him as a prospect, particularly his power, but he needs to prove that he can field a position as well as just hit in the majors.  Like any fan, I would love for a guy to come up and do what he's doing in AAA right now, hitting .431/.455/.824/1.278 with 4 homers in 51 AB (13 AB/HR) and 15 RBI in 12 games.  Sign me up!

But, unfortunately, AAA is not the majors and he's only had 51 AB.  SSS to the extreme, it is two weeks worth of games, a drop in the storm.  And remember, the vast majority of pitchers in AAA are not good enough to pitch in the majors, lacking a major out pitch, for the most part.

Nobody is mentioning his 15 K's in those 51 AB.  This is a miserable 70.6% contact rate.  Which would only get worse in the majors, where most of the major league pitchers have out pitches that enable them to stay there and not end up in AAA.

Nobody is mentioning his .545 BABIP, which nobody in MLB history has ever duplicated in a season.  Even the best hitters of our era, like Ichiro, never maintain an BABIP that high over a full season.  He did reach .399 (again, he was one of the best of this era) in 2004, and .389 another season, but his career BABIP is .343 and over his best period of years, .357, which are considered great for a hitter.  And he was one of the fastest players around, which helped him beat out grounders for infield hits.

Duvall is not much of a runner, so he's not going to get many of these.  So what are the odds of him having a .545 BABIP in the majors?  Especially in light of his sad 70.6% contact rate.  Which might be fine if he was walking a lot, but with only 3 walks in 55 PA, he isn't much of a walker either.  Which is another sign that he's not that great a hitter (because good hitters generally walk a lot, while doing other good things with his bat), and therefore unlikely to be able to maintain such a high BABIP.

Even his career numbers for BABIP are not as good as that.  Individual hitters attain their own levels of BABIP.  And remember, these were achieved in the minors, there will be a reduced ability to achieve these numbers in the majors, what sabers call Minor League Equivalencies.  Each has their own methodology, but essentially the idea is that the competition is that much tougher in the majors, and thus, say, an 1.000 OPS guy in AA, might be a .800 OPS in AAA, and a .600 OPS in majors (my own made up numbers to illustrate how the process might work)  I'm not sure what the exact translations are, but I would note that I noticed that guys who hit 1.000 OPS in AA is a sign of a guy who will get chances in the majors:  Sandoval, Bowker, Ishikawa (but against RHP), Schierholtz, Belt are ones who come immediately to mind, so you can see the checkered history of that (and again, they hit over 1.000 OPS in AA!).

Some are able to learn at each level and advance, like Duffy or Panik, but the vast majority of players who hit very well in AA do not necessary make it in the majors.  There is a severe weeding process and many a prospect (Linden, Feliz, Ishikawa, Bowker) come up from AAA after killing the ball there, and not do all that well.  Swing and miss guys like Duvall usually just end up missing even more in the majors.  If he could get his contact rate up into the 85% rate, I would have greater hope for him.

And I wish him all the best, as I do all Giants prospects.  But calling him up now is just an act of desperation, a hope to catch lightening in a bottle.  Just because Duvall has been very very lucky thus far in just a couple weeks of games does not mean that he's going to duplicate that at the major league level, particularly given his lack of overall contact, his high BABIP and low walk rate.

He will need to continue to hit like this into June before I would start to take notice and think that this might be real, it is not impossible to strike out so much and still do well in the majors, but two weeks is not enough for me to believe. If I were totally tied to statistics, the amount of time statistically necessary to verify him would be too much time to take, probably a couple of season's worth, and that's obviously too long a time.  I don't think that you can wait for confirmation in baseball or you will never make any moves at all until the guys career is over.

Stats help point out stuff, but then intuition and guts (i.e. scouting) need to be part of the overall equation.  I don't have the scouting, so two months seems fair to me, he would have earned a chance with such hot hitting over an extended period.  But everybody is different, I recognize that.  Still, two weeks is just too short, statistically just too short.

Your 2014 Giants: September Call-Ups Part Deux

The Giants had another round of call-ups.  Apparently Fresno still had one more game to play or something like that, so they called up first the guys who would not be needed in the minors.  Also called up:

• Brett Bochy, RHP.  Obviously, the manager's son.  I was hoping the Giants would do that for Brett at some point, as a reward to the manager, to be able to manage his own son and so forth.  It also helps that Brett has actually done well enough in the minors to at least get a look at in the majors.  His stats include two starts where he got beat like a drum.  His ERA as a reliever was a sterling 3.38, though his 7.3 K/9 and 1.64 K/BB were not that great.  But that is related, it appears to me, to injury mid-season, pre-injury his numbers were 8.8 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB before the two starts that appears to be the trigger to injury and decline, as he went on the DL soon after those starts and he hasn't been the same since in terms of peripherals.   So I think he did earn the call-up but he hasn't been pitching well lately, so we'll see how much he'll be used.  He wasn't on the 40-man.
• Gary Brown, CF/OF.   I was kind of hoping for this, but his numbers have been so bad and up and down that I wasn't sure what would happen.  Despite all his downs, I still think that he can add value to the team, though now it would mostly be through his defense.  And I still think that the skills he showed as a hitter before should translate at some point, but that takes experience.  Given his struggles, I see him as a future replacement for Blanco at some point, having a similar profile:  strong defense, OK at getting on base at times, OK with power sometimes, but too inconsistent to become a regular.  Not that I've given up hope that he could start someday, but right now, I'll take one step at a time, and that's getting and holding a reserve spot in order to get the opportunities to show what you got and to learn.  I assume he's going to be mostly a pinch-runner in late game situations where a steal is not necessary (he's still getting caught a lot, though the Giants appear to have let him loose late this season to see what he could do) and late inning defensive replacement, particularly in CF, though Perez has basically the same profile.   I assume Bochy will utilize one in a PH situation and then the other in a PR/Defensive situation in any game.
• Adam Duvall, 3B/1B.  I was going to ask in my first post about call-ups why he wasn't called up but luckily let it go, as he was called up the next day.  I don't recall anything happening like this before, splitting up the call-ups like this.  He's going to be a power bat off the bench for Bochy, and get a start here and there, semi-platoon with Ishikawa perhaps, though Brown or Perez could play LF and push Morse to 1B against LHP plus Posey would get starts at 1B too.  Might also give a rest to Sandoval at 3B.  Forgot where I read it (Chronicle I think, though) but the Giants in August was the first team in a hundred years to start five players at least five games each in a month at 1B.  Yeah, obscure and meaningless achievement, but thought I would share it anyway as I like that sort of stuff.  
• Erik Cordier, RHP.  Flamethrower like Strickland, only Hunter has shown superlative control this season and Erik has not even been close.  Still, he's on the 40-man and relievers like him are becoming de rigueur, as the Giants stockpiling of guys with high-90's profile continues with picks in the draft in recent years (Shankbone has noted this trend often on his blog;  Strickland hit 100 MPH twice in yesterday's game and was mostly at 98-99 MPH), so Bochy probably wants to kick the tires on him and see what he got.
• Chris Heston, RHP.   Heston is put back on the 40-man after being dropped after his poor season last year.  He had a really nice season, 3.38 ERA with 2.45 K/BB, though only 6.5 K/9.  Still, he's one of those prospects who don't have the stuff to keep on getting chances and has to prove it at every level he gets to.  The road is hard for these prospects, but sometimes they make it up to the majors and get a chance, like Charlton's descendant.  I always root for these guys, as I identify with them.  He's probably not going to see a lot of action, as he's probably the long relief guy (Kickham too, but he'll probably see some 6/7 inning work as well) though I expect him to get at least one appearance as a reward for doing well enough to get promoted to the majors.  

As noted, two 40-man spots needed to be opened up, so Scutaro and Cain were moved to the 60-day DL list to clear up two spots.   The Giants have 35 players up here out of the 40-man roster, according to reports (but I only count 4 guys not up so I guess I'm missing someone or maybe we still have one spot open, just in case).

Shows how much they think of Strickland and Cordier for the team to call both of them up while also putting them in the AFL as well (though depending on how much they get used in the majors, they might send someone else instead).

I've been hoping that Brett could make the team and stay on it, but the bullpen has been so good, it's been hard for him to break in.  I've been hoping that Brown could make the team, but he just hasn't done so well, hopefully he can show off something while up here.   Good luck to all the new major leaguers!

Go Giants!

Your 2014 Giants: Fickle FInger of Fate, Part Deux: Sans-a-Belt

You read the news today, oh boy:  Belt HBP, broken thumb, says he's out six weeks.  He'll be DLed tomorrow.  He's one of our leading hitters with .815 OPS and team lead in homers.

2014 40-Man Roster Changes to Avoid Rule 5 Draft Losses

The following players have been reported by Baggarly and Pavlovic to have been added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made available via the Rule 5 draft happening soon:

• Gary Brown, CF
• Kendry Flores, RHP
• Adam Duvall, 3B
• Hunter Strickland, RHP

That put us over.  To get us back to 40, pitcher Guillermo Moscoso was DFAed.

It was also noted that more players may have to be DFAed to accommodate the reportedly soon to be signed Javier Lopez deal (reported to be 3 year, $13M by BA Sports Guy), and when the Giants sign another player to fill the last SP position (whether Vogelsong or another free agent; sounds like if Vogelsong is signed, he will be made the last starting pitcher, he won't have to battle anyone for that role - though like any player, he could lose it if he plays poorly in spring).

ogc thoughts

The first three were no-brainers.  Brown, while disappointing many, is still very good defensively, and as Juan Perez showed this year, even in limited play, you can make a huge contribution via great defensive plays.  And he's working on his mechanics to become a better hitter.  Flores, rose to the occasion and did very well, putting his name into the conversation among top Giants prospects.  Great K/BB of 8.06, as his command improved even better than before - and he was very good before - while maintaining a high K/9.   Plus, he was only 21 for the season.  Duvall has been hitting homers and playing a decent 3B, and hit OK there.

Strickland was a surprise.  He had already been DFAed during the 2013 season and went unclaimed.  I liked his numbers before he was injured, so I was surprised he was dropped, as the DFA suggests that they did not think much of his chances.  But by protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, that means the Giants front office thinks enough of his potential that instead of risking losing him, they put him on the 40-man roster.

I was a little surprised that Moscoso was released, and yet not.  Surprised because he pitched well for us.  Not surprised because he made the point early on that he wants to be a starting pitcher, and apparently the Giants do not agree, and are letting him go, much like they did with Correia, who also wanted to start, for someone, anyone.  Apparently Petit, who is out of options, is now first in line to be the long reliever.

Baggarly points out Mijares as the most likely to go first, when Lopez is signed, he was already being eyed for non-tender anyway.  Next one expected to go after Mijares is Tony Abreu.

Both Moscoso and Mijares have good stats, and should not have a hard time finding another team, if/when the time comes.  Abreu I'm not sure of.  His frequent injuries will hurt his chances of finding a place for him.

I also wonder which players were not protected and thus are draftable in the Rule 5 draft.  We have not lost many players via this rule, but you never know.

And the 40-man is going to get crowded soon, as the prospects keep doing well and moving up.   I went through an exercise to see who would get assigned to each level and came up with the following:

• Mike Kickham, Eric Surkamp, Chris Heston, Edwin Escobar plus one (probably someone signed to minor league deal) in AAA; 
• Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach, Adalberto Mejia, Kendry Flores in AA; 
• Chris Stratton, Martin Agosta, Joan Gregorio, Chris Johnson, Joe Kurrasch in Advanced A; and 
• Nick Vander Tuig, Chase Johnson, Luis Ysla, Carlos Diaz, Andrew Leenhouts, Keury Mella in A-ball in Augusta. 

Wow, they all seem good, in one way or another, the system is full up! All of the above pitchers have some nice qualities that could work in the majors.  Escobar looks near certain to perform well enough to break in the majors in 2014 at some point, whether through need or September call-up.  That should provide a lot of trading chips should the Giants need to trade by mid-season.