Worried vs. Watchful: Bumgarner

I watch a Twitter feed of the term Giants and one of the conversations I saw yesterday was someone amazed by Bumgarner hitting mid-90's, as "everyone" was worried about him last season.  And that got me thinking:  not everyone, I was wondering, watchful and observant, maybe, but not worried.  And I tweeted, not everyone, and someone said OK, 99.5% were.

I think that is where experience and knowledge comes in and allay fears.  I was not worried because he said he was healthy and had been battling this issue since the middle of the prior season.  In addition, Baseball America reported that they were not worried about him either, that young pitchers in their first or second season go through such a period, not necessarily a dead arm, but for some reason young players go through this issue.  That alone makes me think less than 99.5% because BA is so well known and that information was surely passed around.

More importantly, to me, was that he was still very effective even though he had lost velocity, which to me was a sign he was a pitcher already, not just a thrower who relied solely on his velocity to beat hitters.

And it ended up being an issue with his mechanics.  Dick Tidrow showed up like the cavalry (look at his picture and say that isn't appropriate!) and tweaked a few things and suddenly Bumgarner was good to go.

Knowledge Helps

That got me thinking of observations I've made regarding all our homegrown starting pitchers, so I thought I would share them and see if others agree or vehemently disagree or whatever, and perhaps share their observations.

Madison Bumgarner

Naturally, let's start with him.  This appears to be a pattern with Madison:  as much as he may throw off-season, something happens and he starts off the season a bit lost.  In 2009, the reason given was that the Giants were trying to fiddle with his mechanics, as the fear back then was that his cross-body throwing motion might hurt his arm eventually.  It was reported that once he went back to his form from high school, he mowed down everyone.  In 2010, he had not figured out his mechanics issue yet.  But his year, there was neither reason, yet he started slowly again and a bit lost.  He could maybe just be a slow starter and that was masked by other things

Of course, the hard thing to remember is that he's only 21, so he's still got things to learn and will sometimes forget things.  He has been so preternaturally good that one might think that he is perfect, with no flaws.  Pitching is an art, and sometimes key lessons are lost and the player starts throwing instead of pitching.  I think that is what has been happening with Bumgarner and so he starts off each season a little lost until he puts it all together again.

The Baseball America article noted Cliff Lee as a comp and I think that is a good example.  Lee was not good immediately when he made the majors, but he was learning as he was going and once he had that figured out, look out.  Bumgarner appears to have more talent, as he has been pretty good immediately but occasionally loses his way, but he's learning too, and once he gets it all together, watch out.

Matt Cain

And I think that segues nicely to Matty, the Cainer, for as well as he pitched when he joined the majors, watch out once he figured things out.  His problem early on was what one could call a lack of confidence or even too much maturity.  He rightly revered and respected major league hitters as being a step beyond all other hitters, but didn't quite grasp that he was not only their equal, but was generally better.  If anything, he thought too much while pitching.

He showed his no-hit stuff from the beginning and frankly I thought he would be the first Giant since the Count to throw a no-hitter, as he had the stuff and the mentality to do that over a complete game.  But early on, I read about how he didn't really believe in the stuff in his fastball, that was what Matt Morris noted that first season he was with the Giants, and what he was trying to drill into Cain's brain:  trust your stuff.  This was confirmed later by free agent hitters coming in and telling Cain about their perspective hitting against him.  Instead, Matty would rather nibble at the corners and get into hitter's counts when the umpire wasn't giving him those.

That's I think where his preternatural maturity came back to bite him in the rear.  Like Bumgarner, Cain came to the Giants knowing a lot about being a pitcher.  Cain had gotten tutored by a former major leaguer in his hometown, and he absorbed everything well.  So well that he pitched like a mature, wily pitcher instead of a young stud with a heater and stuff daring the batter to try to hit his stuff.  And that would get him in trouble when the umpire wasn't giving him the corner, and he would walk too many batters.

But as one can observe of his career, he made progress in steps.  His first full season was a matter of first getting used to being a major leaguer.  His first half was pretty bad until his turn was skipped and he took a deep breath and calmed down a bit.  OK, a lot, he threw a complete game shutout of the A's in his next start.  After that, he compiled a 3.69 ERA, which was about what he accomplished in 2007 and 2008.  He then took his next step, and had a much lower ERA, which he has done since then.

One can see the progress, generally forward, but as he was learning, a bit of two steps forward and one back occasionally, as one can see from his PQS stats.  His DOM%/DIS% in the first half of 2006 was 38%/38% (remember, DOM% of 40%+ is good, 50%+ is great, 70%+ elite; DIS% of under 20% is good, under 10% elite), but in the second half 67%/7%.  In 2007, he was up and down, H1 was 53%/12%, H2 60%/27%.  In 2008, H1 60%/10%, H2 50%/7%.  In 2009, H1 61%/11%, H2 60%/7%, his first season he had above 60% DOM in both halves.  In 2010, H1 50%/6%, H2 87%/7%, his first season he had below 10% DIS in both halves, which is actually more key in delivering a lower ERA consistently, as it is the blowout disaster starts that really kill a pitcher's ERA.  A pitcher can deliver a decent ERA even if he doesn't get a lot of DOM starts as long as he can avoid the DIS starts as well.

Jonathan Sanchez

Dirty is a good example of how the maturity of both Bumgarner and Cain is so rare, most pitchers are like him in many ways, except that Sanchez has stuff that hitters cannot hit at all.  His problem has been his mind and learning to become a pitcher rather than a thrower.  But what a thrower he is!

Chez is a good example of TINSTAAPP:  There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect.  Everyone knows what that means - either you are good enough or you are not, there is no prospect - but many don't realize the corollary of that is that once a pitcher is ready, the clock is ticking on his effectiveness and longevity, so you don't want to waste his arm down in the minors.  That is why TINSTAAPP theory supports the Giants putting him in the bullpen to start his major league career and keep him there until they thought he was ready to start.

His problem has always been the big inning.  Once things didn't go his way, he crumbled.  He, to use the terms of the Malcolm Gladwell article on choking, switched between implicit and explicit learning, or from muscle memory to thinking about the motion.  When you see great athletes "choke" in pressure situations, they are thinking about the motion, which brings you back to where you were when you were first learning the motion, rather than relying on muscle memory, which is honed by all your practice.  I think that is what has been causing his big innings, he can coast along on muscle memory when everything is fine, he pitches as fine as he has the past year, but once things go bad, then he reverts to something closer to his first two seasons in the majors, 2006-2007.

People don't remember, but Sanchez actually had a very good first season as a starter in 2008, at least until he ran out of stamina.  He had an ERA under 4.00 as late as July 9th and good starts to his July 4th start:  up to that point, his DOM% was 56%, his DIS% was 17%.  Not only that, but after his early season struggles, he strung together a 10 start streak with 8 DOM starts and no DIS starts, which is elite of the elite if one could do that over a season, compiling a 3.23 ERA during that period.  Then his stamina ran out and his season was downhill starting with his July 9th start.  But his early season dominance was why I though 2009 was going to be his breakout year.   But his mind got in his way.

2009 was the year of his no-hitter but that was marred by his horrible performance prior to that no-hitter, which was due to a unfortunate case of hero worship.  That season, he participated in the WBC and got to pitch with his idol, Johan Santana.  He liked Johan's mechanics which he copied in honor of his hero.  Unfortunately, mechanics that works great for someone of Johan's shorter height don't work so well for someone taller like Dirty.  He was horrible until the Giants took him out a start and perhaps he was ready to hear what they had to say, but like Cain, came out blazing, outdoing Cainer by throwing his first complete game, his no-hitter.  He compiled a 3.46 ERA for the rest of the season.

That's why I wasn't too surprised by his 2010, he had shown the potential to do well with his ERA if he were able to focus and take his considerable talent and stuff and shut the other teams down.  He finally put it mostly all together in 2010.  I think that his being able to work with Randy Johnson in 2009 was invaluable in getting his head better together as well, based on the comments I've seen from Randy, Sanchez, and other Giants.

Still, there are areas of potential improvement for 2011.  His PQS shows his potential and progression.  In 2008, H1 he had a great 53%/21% but in H2 it was only 30%/50%.  In 2009, H1 he had his horrible first half, 21%/36%, but in H2 60%/13%.  In 2010, H1 he only had 33%/22% but that just shows how powerful it is to avoid disaster starts, and in H2 he had 67%/13%.

If he can put together a great first half and second half, he could start reaching the heights that Lincecum and Cain has.  So far this season he has 2 DOM starts in 5, for a 40%/0% ratio and 3.21 ERA.  Again, the power of not giving up a disaster start, looks like a great start for Dirty in 2011.

Tim Lincecum

As good as Bumgarner might get or Sanchez is getting close to getting or Cain is right now, Lincecum is the gold standard for the Giants rotation.  But even he has had bumps in the road and areas of growth.

A common repeatable pattern is that when the Franchise is doing something significant for the first time, he gets over amped and overpitches, unable to control and locate his pitches.  His first start in the minors, his first start in major league spring training, his first start in the majors, his first start as opening day starter, I think even his first start as home opening day starter, and his first start in the World Series.  The only one I can think of where he excelled was his first playoff start, against Atlanta, where he was spectacular, though I would put an asterisk next to that one because he had essentially spend the month of September fighting to get to the next round of the playoffs.

And, of course, there were his "lost" months, of which he has not had many, so they are notable, and he wasn't really lost the whole month but for 3 starts in the month. His first one was in June 2007, his second month in the majors.  That was the first time he ever had 3 disaster starts in a row, his confidence was down and he started overthrowing and trying to throw harder when he should lay off and focus on locating his pitches.  The Giants did not skip a start to get him straighten out and he was able to get out of it himself.

And that is one thing many fans don't get, which is the nuance of how much rope the Giants give prospects and young players.  The problem is that the players the fans get upset about are the ones who really aren't that good and so they get less rope.  Or they don't realize that if the player has shown ability in the majors, he gets more rope.

Cain got to mid-May but that was his first full season and he did well in an extended audition the season before.  So did Travis Ishikawa.  Sanchez got to June, but he had shown good ability the season before and thus got more rope.  Lincecum got a lot more rope due to how well he did after his first start, but had his bad streak lasted much longer, they might have finally yanked him.  Just like how Pablo Sandoval got all last season before Bochy took him out in the playoffs.

Meanwhile Brandon Belt didn't get a long rope as he hadn't shown success in the majors before.   And the same goes for all the other Giants prospects that fans cried didn't get a chance.   And in Belt's case, the mitigating factor was that it was clear that the only way Aubrey Huff and he could co-exist on the major league roster was if Huff started at 1B and Belt in the OF.  So they went ahead and sent him down to start that transition immediately rather than let him figure things out up here with the bat.

Back to Big Time Timmy Jim, he then had another bad stretch in May of 2010, when he had three bad starts, for a 8.22 ERA, before straightening out.  Four if you count the start before that streak, as that was four straight starts with 5 walks, but he limited the damage in that start.  Then he had another bad stretch in August of 2010, another three bad starts, 10.38 ERA.

And that's it.  We are so blessed to have him heading up our starting rotation.  For all people can complain about Sabean, they are just looking for the negatives, he has hit grand slams frequently, with Jeff Kent, Jason Schmidt, and now Lincecum (and Cain, Posey, Sandoval, and Bumgarner could soon join the list), which is how a team dominates.  And how the Giants can dominate in the playoffs.

Lincecum and Cain makes an incredible 1-2 punch in the playoffs, aces 1A and 1B.  Cain could probably take on almost any other team's ace, yet Lincecum is better than that and takes care of that ace, while Cain then handles that team's #2, who is usually not ace level.  Then we got Sanchez, who when he is on is capable of ace-worthy status.  And once Bumgarner matures and develops more, we might have another ace on par with Lincecum (only 21, remember).

In addition, as I've noted before, I expect Lincecum to take another step up this season over his Cy Young seasons in terms of PQS.  With a slider to handle left-handed batters to go with his changeup/cutter that handles right-handed batters, plus his fastballs that neither can handle when mixed in right, Lincecum should be dominant in a way that he hadn't been even in his Cy Young years, so I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA was under 2.00, though I wouldn't bet on it either.

And he was basically 80%/6% in those seasons.  He is 80%/0% so far this season and only 2 outs away from 100% DOM.   However, his last start hopefully was an anomaly in that it was his first start ever to have 6 walks.  Something to watch and monitor.

Tiene Tejada?

Per Kevin's comment, I'll address a few player questions, starting with Miguel Tejada.  If he were a young prospect, the fans would probably be all over him:  very low K-rate, 8.1%, OK walk-rate, 5.8%, low but OK BB/K ratio as that is actually high for his career, as his walk rate is near his career (5.8% vs. 6.2%) while his K-rate is improved (8.1% vs. 11.7%).  That's excellent plate discipline.  His extra-base hits per hit is 38% vs. MLB average of 34%, though he's not hitting as many homers as before, by large margin, though I would note players need time to get used to AT&T as a park to hit in.  And his BABIP is .203 vs. a career .295 BABIP and .300 for his three prior seasons.  And he has had a bad start like this before in 2003, even worse numbers overall,

He appears to be suffering from a severe case of bad luck with the BABIP, resulting in his current woes, and that appears to be due to a high ratio of ground-balls and a severe drop in line-drives.

Meanwhile, Brandon Belt struck out 21.7% of the time, which is very high, way below average (MLB average is 18.7%), but which is mitigated by his high walk rate.  However, that walk rate is still not good enough, that is still a very low contact rate.  Also, his extra-base hit ratio is only 20%, which is probably due to a very high amount of ground balls, with a 1.44 GB/FB ratio, even though his line drive percentage is actually good at 18%.  In addition, that extreme groundball slant is worsen by the fact that a large percentage of his flyballs were actually infield fly balls, at 19%.

Thus far, Tejada looks like the better bet to come out of his funk, he is still not getting fooled much by pitches, he's able to make contact with them and hit them somewhere.  And when he connects, he's still getting extra-base hits like he was before, only now they are falling for doubles rather than homers.

Oddly enough, looking at splits, he's actually hit well in SF, .276/.333/.414/.747, with 1 homer, while a poor .157/.185/.235/.420 on the road.  It don't help that 34 of his 54 PA (63%, nearly two-thirds) were in pitchers parks (LA, SD) or a park that hurts right-handers HR power (PIT).  Then he didn't hit in hitters parks at COL and ARI.  However, he probably won't warm up offensively at either Washington (little below average for RHB) or NY Mets (much below average for RHB HR power).  His next chance to warm up on the road is against the Cubs then Rockies in mid-May.

Very Vogelsong

What a nice start for Ryan Vogelsong today!  Pretty much what I was hoping for given how he dominated hitters in AAA then in relief in the majors:  5.2 IP, 4 hits and 2 walks, with 8 K's and 2 ER/R.  That is a 4 PQS start, a DOM start, and he was only one out away from a 5 PQS.  But at 99 pitches in his first start, it was time to take him out.  He now has this nice stat line:  10.1 IP, 7 hits and 2 walks, with 11 K's and 2 ER/R.

At 33 YO, this is a dream start to a dream season for him as he wanted to return back to the Giants, which he repeated noted in various interviews during spring training.  He loved being here and the people here, so when he signed, he didn't ask for a out option to leave the Giants should he not make the majors:  he was where he wanted to be, he said multiple times.

Of course, this was still the Pirates, owner of the second worse offense so far this season in the NL.  He will get a better test in his next start against the Mets in NY, then the D-Rox in SF, his first home start.

I would have still preferred to pitch him on Wednesday and Bumgarner today.  That would have put him in line to start in Washington next, owner of third worse offense, instead of the Mets, then the rest of the starts would be the same team until the end of May, where he now faces St. Louis instead of Milwaukee.

I still worry about what happens to Vogelsong when Zito returns.  Clearly, Zito would regain his spot in the rotation.  Then what happens to Vogelsong?  I don't think the Giants can send him back to AAA without passing him through waivers, but I don't know those rules well enough to know for sure, just my guess.  However, by then, he might earn the long-relief role that Guillermo Mota has.  They could always send Dan Runzler down and shift Mota to short-relief.  Though Runzler has actually done pretty well if you look at his stats other than R/ER:  10 K's in 11.0 IP, only 9 hits and 4 walks, no homers.  Oh, but also, Santiago Casilla would have returned by then, and that would probably result in Runzler going down at that point, so it could become a case of Mota vs. Vogelsong in terms of who to release.

Really Rowand

After his nice game, he's hitting .286/.329/.455/.784, with 8 RBI in 77 AB, 21 games.  High BABIP of .350, so unsustainable, though he did keep that up one season long ago at .345.  Plus, it balances out against his very low .263 BABIP last season, and his career BABIP is .317, so he don't have as much to fall as other hitters, as the average BABIP is around .300.

His K-rate of 20.8 is in line with his career with the Giants so far, though his walk rate is down.  But his extra-base hit ratio is up, as his line drive percentage is at a high 23%.  However, he has a low HR/FB ratio of 3.7% vs. career 8.8%.

His peripherals overall, though, look like they would fit in with any other April he has had in his career as a starter.  And in recent seasons, his BABIP of .350 would fit right in, very close (.414, .413, .333, .333).  As I've noted before, an injury seems to be the key to knocking Rowand off the rails, resulting in poor batting performances that bring down his overall seasonal totals.  His Aprils with SF are actually among his best Aprils in his career, other than the career year he had before he joined the Giants.

Superb Sandoval

Lastly, a look at the Round Mound of Pound, Kung Fu Panda himself, Pablo Sandoval.  As I noted in the last post, his no-doubt homers look to be back in 2009 form, not 2010.  If you look at his peripherals, he looks about the same.  He's actually striking out a little more while also taking more walks, but his BB/K ratio is about the same, a little low though.  He is showing more plate discipline, with 3.64 Pitches/PA so that explains why he's getting more strikeouts and walks, as he is making it deeper into counts now.

He's still not getting as many extra-base hits, but when he does connect, they are going for homers, which means that this high 15% HR/FB ratio probably will fall as we go deeper into the season.  He's hitting a lot more flyballs than ground balls, as well as more line drives, so he's clearly hitting the ball better than he was in 2010 and for more power, so far.

All in all, he is roughly matching his 2009 season, with a .325/.386/.550/.936 batting line (vs. .330/.387/.556/.943 in 2009) and his BABIP is also basically the same as well, at .344 (vs. .350 BABIP in 2009).

I still think he's back, though I understand the skepticism of the doubters, it is only one month.  But there are qualitative factors, like power returning, as shown by the no-doubters, to his 2009 standards, and his peripherals being in line with career norms and thus the question as to what his true career BABIP is.

2010 looks like the outlier.  So far, 2011 is in line with his 2009 results, and not his 2010.  In fact, it is similar to his numbers in 2008 when he first came up, except the power is missing, but it appears that he is making the traditional tradeoff between power and strikeouts:  he is striking out more but hitting more homers.  If you look at his BABIP, 2010 is the season that sticks out as not belonging in his career numbers.  Meanwhile his peripherals have been the same each season, within range of each other and normal fluctuations.

And fortunately he is delivering.  Both Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey were expected to provide more hitting than they have so far.  That should improve as Huff has been exhibiting the same peripherals in terms of walks and strikeouts as he has during his career, his main big problem is his very poor BABIP.  Posey, on the other hand, is striking out a lot more, plus is suffering from a low BABIP vs. last season.  His line drive percentage is down as well.  But as I noted, the Giants have been playing in parts that affect RHB's power more.  Hopefully it is just a matter of there being so many road parks tough on RHB so far, though he's having the opposite problem than Tejada, he's been very good on the road while very bad at home so far.

Burriss Back as DeRosa DLs

Unsurprising given the lack of playing time and the scratched start due to wrist soreness, Mark DeRosa went on the DL to rest his wrist, per the recommendation of the surgeon who operated on his wrist.  The part operated on is fine but for some reason the tissue surrounding it is inflamed.  DeRosa chose to bite the bullet and go on the DL rather than leave Bochy shorthanded many days (I wish Durham would have had enough sense to do that).

DeRosa is such a team player and good example for young players, maybe he can come back as a coach for us some day.  Meanwhile maybe he'll be willing to accept a low deal in the $1-2M range to come back in 2012 and be a super-utility guy, assuming his wrist returns to normal by mid-season and he has a normal batting line for his career.  When healthy and hitting, he's a very valuable cog on the bench of any team hoping to make hay in the playoffs.

To replace DeRosa, Emmanuel Burriss was called up.  Now 26, after two injury plagued seasons that stole valuable development time away from him, he was hitting .344 with a .423 OBP, per Andy Baggerly's notes in the newspaper.  Manny has 15 steals (3 CS) in 16 games, which is more steals than 11 AAA teams had at the moment.  It was also reported by Bochy that the reports on Manny were positive both defensively as well as offensively, which is good because part of his value is that he is suppose to be very good defensively at 2B and adequate at SS.

He also saw time in the OF in AAA this season, as the Giants organizational focus on creating flexibility via players who can play more than 1-2 positions continue.   He, Rohlinger, Neal, and I think Gillaspie too, have played a number of positions in AAA so far this season, and Belt will be adding LF and RF to 1B.

Unlike others, I like Burriss as a hitter and think if given time and development he can be at least average.  He has very good command of the bat, he has not struck out that much in the majors so far, which is a very hard to do in the majors.  That plus good defense at 2B or average defense at SS, plus being a good basestealer, would provide good value on the Giants roster.

He has two major problems.  First is that he don't walk.  Second is that he don't hit for power.  He is basically like Juan Pierre, so there is value there, only it is severely limited by these two problems.  I don't expect him to figure out the walking part, and frankly with his speed and command of the bat, he should have adequate OBP due to a high BABIP coupled with a low strikeout rate.

His bigger problem is his inability to hit for any power at all.  Practically zero in the majors, given his 55 career ISO in the minors.  He was one of the guys who chased away Carney Lansford from the Giants.  He has strong arms and thus the strength to hit for more power, which Carney was trying to get him to do, but basically he was taught to slap at the ball the way Andres Torres was taught.

He probably needs to go through the Giants new video system training program to change his batting mechanics, like Belt and Noonan, so that he can be more like Andres Torres and hit line drives, but he should have been working on that the past season while he was out, plus off-season, and be ready out of the box this season.  But looking at his stats so far in AAA this season, he has a minor uptick in power, so it is not encouraging so far.

Until he solves this, he's going to be a fringe player like Torres was until he changed his batting mechanics using the Ted Williams methods taught in his book, Science of Hitting.  Because of his speed and defense, and ability to play multiple positions, he'll probably hang around as a bench player for a number of seasons.  If he wants to be a starter, he needs to figure out how to hit for more power.  I mean, he makes Juan Pierre look like a power hitter in comparison.

Which would be too bad, Gary Brown and him 1/2 in the lineup, ahead of Belt, Posey, Sandoval, would be quite a good offense, and the Giants might then be able to handle Brandon Crawford or Ehire Adrianza at SS solely for defense.

Your 2010 Giants are The CHAMPIONS OF THE NATIONAL LEAGUE

THE GIANTS ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

WOW, what a game!  I was in suspense the whole way, down to the last out, the last strike.  But I never felt like we were going to lose, unlike, say, game 7 when Livan gave up all those hits.  I was buoyed by Bochy pulling Sanchez so quickly, I was very impressed, and thought that we were going to have a good chance to win, but whether we win or not, who knew, and I felt pretty good once we tied them.

Bochy's Da Man

This gets back to my post a couple of days ago about how Bochy is the right manager to lead us to the World Series Championship that all of us Giants fans have been waiting for.  Contrast Bochy taking Sanchez out in the third with Dusty leaving Livan in there in Game 7 when you just knew that he was going to give up the big hit and put us deep in the hole.

By taking out Sanchez, it also showed that an advantage Bochy had over Manuel, he had a full deep bullpen he could go to for a bullpen game, whereas Oswalt was struggling all night but Manuel had to stick by him.  It worked out with Oswalt, but after the Giants extended Madsen in the 7th, Manuel had to stick with Madsen in the 8th, and Uribe got his homer!

Co-Dy!

Cody Ross, of course, was named the NLCS MVP, after his great performance, hitting all those key homers, as well as hits later, that helped the Giants score key runs that led to wins.   Well done Cody, thanks for all the great hitting so far, hopefully it will continue in the World Series.

2010 World Series

This is the 18th time the Giants will go to the World Series as a franchise, which they have won five times, but as we know, they have not won yet in San Francisco.  They will face the Rangers, who are there for the first time.  The Giants get home advantage, so the series will start on Wednesday in San Francisco.  

I think the Giants are in good shape to win the World Series.  Very importantly, the Giants get home advantage.  That will give them an extra edge in a series that will probably be tight and close, as the Rangers have a good rotation themselves.

The Giants pitchers have been amazing for the most part, and I expect Lincecum and Cain to continue to do well.  I hope Sanchez can get over his emotions, but after this game, I think they can be fine with our bullpen, led by the amazing Brian Wilson.  

In addition, the hitting is starting to get over their jitters.  Torres and Sanchez are heating up, and the Giants had numerous opportunities today, and I think they will convert more against the Rangers, who does not have as good a middle bullpen as the Giants did.  For all the complaints people made about getting those relievers, particularly since we lost Bowker and Martinez, we probably would not have won the NL West, NLDS, or NLCS without Lopez or Ramirez.  

A big wildcard is how much advantage the Rangers have with Bengie Molina on their team.  He obviously knows our pitchers and probably knows the weaknesses of some of the hitters.  However, the pitchers is not just their pitches, but also how they mix it up.  And clearly Posey has a better formula than Molina did, with how the pitchers have been pitching since early September and continuing into the playoffs, the Giants have continued to keep the opposition from scoring more than 3 runs.   And that has been leading to wins, a lot of wins.  And is it one thing to prepare your hitters on what to expect, but they have to stand in the batter's box and execute, and that will be hard to execute, I think.

Another Vet Paying Off

Like Renteria giving Cody Ross a big tip, Mark DeRosa passed to Jonathan Sanchez a tip that he picked up from Glavine - about holding his hands before throwing - that allowed Sanchez to go on his great stretch of great pitching in September and to now.  I believe I read that in the SJ Mercury.  Given how well Sanchez did, I would say that DeRosa earned his $6M salary with that tip.  Now up to Rowand to give a tip to someone!  :^)

Go Giants!  Let's do it!

Giants News: DeRosa in DeDumps, Burrell Up the Ball, Prospecting

DeRosa Seeing Light of Surgery Tunnel

As reported (like by Baggarly) DeRosa was thoroughly unimpressed with his one rehab game in San Jose.  It was so bad that he decided to cut that short (partly due to sinkerballer pitching the next night) and spend the rest of the homestand with the team, before heading back to AAA for some more games, some more tries to salvage this season.

But it's looking more and more like he will be operated on.  He's seen the expert - the one he should have had done the surgery in the first place instead of the local doctor he chose instead - and the doctor said that "I can fix this."  Normally, it's 3 months to recover but since it's his second, it could take longer.

I think this is the best route.  Get him well before next season.  His skills still looked OK before his injury last season.

Apparently the only reason he's doing this rehab thing is because the Giants want him to, just to exhaust all avenue of getting some value out of him this season, it seems to me.  I think that this is a mistake.  If they operated on him a couple of weeks ago, he could possibly have been ready by September or October if we made the playoffs.  Now, it is iffy at best.  Plus, if there are any other complications, then he will have that much more time to deal with it.

The focus should have been on maximizing his value in 2011, 2010 is pretty much gone and was, to me, clearly gone the moment he said the surgery was a total failure.  Remember, he was horrible after he sustained that injury while with the Cards last season.  If he couldn't hit with it then, why would he hit with it now?

Pat the Bat Could Join Giants Soon

Hank Schulman blogged that it wouldn't be surprising to see Pat Burrell join the team sooner or later, perhaps as soon as Friday's road trip game.  Burrell has been hitting well in his time in AAA (though I would note that even career AAAA hitters hit well in AAA in their 30's as their experience gives them that great an advantage) and Schulman thinks that the team could use such a bat off the bench.  And the points he makes are very true.

The key question then is who gets voted off the 25-man roster then?  The two obvious choices would be Bowker and Ishikawa, as they have been used the least.  They appear to want Whiteside, though with Posey up, they could try to send him down and let Posey be the backup.  But I don't know whether they can option him down or not, without exposing him to waivers.  Schierholtz has no options plus has shown enough to keep him around, while Bowker does have an option.  And Downs is our only MI on the bench, so he's not going anywhere.  That leaves Bowker and Ishikawa.

I would think Bowker is the one to go.  He has an option left while Ishikawa would have to go through waivers and probably would be picked up by somebody.  He is an OF, which Burrell is too (though reportedly Burrell can play 1B too, but he is horrible defensively in LF and probably more so at 1B).  Bochy recently complimented Ishikawa's ability to hit from the bench, but Bowker has been good doing that too, so they are even there it would appear.  And we have three lefty options off the bench, but our two right-handed options are Downs and Whiteside right now, so one of the lefties should go, and, as noted, Bowker is the only one of them with an option left.

And definitely, no dropping of Posey to bring Burrell up.  Burrell should not be starting regularly.  He will have to earn that after the other OF (Schierholtz and Bowker) are given chances to do something.  He has stunk awful bad for a long while now, he needs to work his way back to starting, step by step.  First is being our power hitting alternative off the bench, the spot that Uribe was suppose to hold.

Luis Heredia Pursuit

It is time for rumors on which team is pursuing which Latin American 15 YO, nearing 16 YO (which is when he can sign) free agents.  I posted a blog on this recently, and the latest one I read about was reported on MLB Trade Rumors about Luis Heredia.  A tall 6' 4" right-hander from Mexico, Heredia is part of this year's July 2 class (that is the starting date when kids turning 16 YO can sign a contract with an MLB team) and apparently that is exactly his birthday.

I've never heard of this before, but I guess it is different in Mexico:  he is controlled by a team and they would need to make him available.  They will probably get a big cut of any bonus he signs for, the percentage I've seen for other international free agents is a third of the bonus, which the article says "could cost as much as $2MM".

The Giants are mentioned as one of the pursuers, along with the Pirates, Yankees, D-gers, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners.  The article noted how the Pirates and Blue Jays have pursued international talent aggressively recently but don't mention the Giants.  I rectified that situation.  :^)

June 8th Amateur Draft

The draft is nearing and it will be broadcast live again on mlb.com.  I have enjoyed following along the draft, you can pick up a lot of information about the picks, particularly when there are interviews with the GM - that's how I learned about the Giants expectations that Bumgarner would be on the fast track and expected to reach the majors in two years.  There are also all sort of links to videos and other information.

I was hoping to show some analysis of the mock draft picks I've seen so far, but with the draft so close, I think I'll just link to the latest mocks instead and throw out names I've seen that might be available.

The latest mock is on MLB Fanhouse (an AOL site) by a former MLB scout, Frankie Piliere.  He sees the Giants picking Nick Castellanos, 3B High Schooler.  His commentary:

The guy who seemed to be their prime target, [Yordy] Cabrera, is off the board in this scenario. The White Sox seem to have moved off Castellanos and are focusing on the college ranks, so it's possible he could slide this far. He'd be on the Giants' short list.

He could be pretty good, as Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com sees him going 14th instead. BA's Jim Callis also thinks that he would go to the Giants as well.  BA ranked Castellanos as the 17th best prospect overall in their Top 200 list, so he is probably a name who will be in play.  Other names I've seen mocks having the Giants pick are Austin Wilson (BA 27th overall), OF; Justin O'Conner, SS/C (24th overall); Gary Brown, OF (14th overall); Christian Colon, SS (9th overall); and Yordy Cabrera, SS/RHP (30th overall), the Cabrera mentioned in the quote above.

Other names I've seen available and selected in the late first round include Brett Eibner (23rd overall); Bryce Brentz, OF (28th overall); OF/RHP; Kaleb Cowart, 3B/RHP (12th overall); Delino DeShields Jr., OF (55th overall); Asher Wojciechowski, RHP (22nd overall); Anthony Ranaudo, RHP (26th overall).  A.J. Vanegas (46th overall) caught my eye because of his high strikeouts and high K/BB ratio, which is what Bumgarner and Alderson excelled at.  The only others with similar stats were Stetson Allie (8th overall) and Dylan Covey (18th overall), both of whom should be gone by the time the Giants pick.  Still, stats is not all there is, it depends on the level of competition, but still, better to have than to not have.

Apparently the Giants have been scouting Cabrera heavily enough to catch notice.  However, most drafts I've seen had him being selected before the Giants can get to him.  But that could also be a ploy as well, most teams know that they are being watched as to their behavior.  Still, last year it was known that Sabean scouted Wheeler personally, so not all are ploys.  Sabean isn't scouting any amateur this season, stating that he is focusing more on the MLB team this season.  Barr and Tidrow have been handling the preparation for the draft.

Austin Wilson supposedly has top 15 talent (BA, however, as noted, only ranked him 27th, but did note that he "has the tools to match any prospect in the draft, save Harper"; Bryce Harper, if you didn't know, is the consensus #1 pick) but teams are scared off by his Stanfurd commitment and the money it would take to sign him away, $2.5M is the figure I've seen.  However, both Blue Jays and the Phillies have had high-ranking officials visit him, so I've seen a number of drafts have one or the other team select Wilson.  The Giants were only mentioned because Stanfurd is nearby in the one draft I saw previously.

This year I wanted to cover all the names I've seen who could fall to the Giants in certain scenarios as the Giants have usually not gone the way the experts think.  Most thought either Drabek or Bard when they selected Lincecum, and many had Lincecum falling past them.  Most thought a hitter like Mills when they selected Bumgarner.  Most did have them picking Posey, though.  And last year, nobody had them picking Wheeler, most thought they would go for Tyler Matzek, though Wheeler was noted as a plan B (turned out he was plan A as Matzek lasted all the way to the 11th pick, Colorado, who picked up a nice talent with a so-so draft position.).

There were more bonus babies falling the draft each year it seems, or at least more who fell and then signed - it could be that previously teams would not sign such players.  Perhaps there is a greater willingness to pay above slot bonuses.  The Giants #24 slot in 2009 was $1,242,000.  Prospects who fell and got significantly above slot (and more than the #24 slot) included #6 Zack Wheeler (who we got), #9 Zach Turner (Detroit has been picking off better talent with bad draft position), #11 Tyler Matzek (Colorado), #13 Grant Green (A's spending more money), #15 Alex White (Indians), #19 Shelby Miller (Cards), #22 Kyle Gibson (Minnesota!), #29 Slade Heathcott (NYY, of course), #58 Andrew Oliver (Detroit), #91 Wil Myers (KC), #107 David Renfroe (Red Sox), #122 Chris Dwyer (KC), #123 Max Stassi (A's).

This year's draft will be different in that the player we select will not necessarily help us soon, like Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Posey have risen through the minors.  Talent is lacking generally in the back end of the first round, though as I showed above, more teams are attempting to sign the signability picks that fall down to them.  And most did sign still.

Hopefully the Giants are devoting more money to the draft to pick up one or two of these signability picks.  They have been more aggressive in recent years to go above slot to get the guy they want.  And they have gone after picks that fell for other reasons.  And as noted above, the Giants are in the mix for at least two $2M+ bonus babies in the Latin American free agent market.

Unbelievable! DeRosa's Wrist Surgery "Total Failure" But Risk Mitigation Key

According to reports from sfgiant.com and Extra Baggs, Mark DeRosa reinjured his wrist again, possibly a few weeks ago when Adam Wainwright hit him with pitches, possibly reaggravating it with "countless extra rounds of batting practice" as DeRosa worked to get his batting stroke back  In any case, an MRI showed that his ligaments were "flapping all over the place again".  He is not sure if surgery is best now or after the season is over.

Giants Thoughts

This is a recurring theme that I've been writing about for a while:  somehow the training staff is missing stuff like DeRosa's, Freddie Sanchez's injuries, Pablo Sandoval's poor vision, Edgar Renteria's elbow, Dave Roberts numerous injuries, Barry Bonds' knee, Noah Lowry's problems (which his agent said they might sue the Giants over, but so far no legal action), Edgardo Alfonzo's back problems, etc.

I understand calculated risks concerning players recovering from injuries, and perhaps the Giants have had a bad streak lately, but still, there have been a lot of problems the Giants have been having with injured players. And so I think it is OK to question what the training staff is doing.  It gets a lot of praise in the press and from the team, but the Giants have been missing a lot of problems with free agents as well as players on the team.  That is a huge dichotomy that needs to be explained to the fans.

Risk Mitigation At Work

Luckily, planning mitigates this problem.  The theme this season is taking risks on veteran players with question marks while having prospects who could be close to figuring things out.  DeRosa is definitely resting this series against the 'Dres and is pondering whether to operate now in order to be sure he will be ready for the 2011 season or play with the injury, which he was able to do, but not satisfactorily, in my opinion, last season for the Cards.

I think they should operate and get past all the possible obstacles to get him ready for the 2011 season, particularly since continuing to play would only yield a subpar DeRosa at best.  I prefer trying to get a fully functional DeRosa for the 2011 season than to struggle with a subpar DeRosa in 2010, then try to operate again and maybe have a subpar DeRosa in 2011 as well.  If they do it now, they hopefully can catch any other problems along the way and make sure that he's ready and healthy to play at 100% for the 2011 season.

Meanwhile, should he be out for the season, we have Bowker who actually has been hitting well lately.  And it appears that he would platoon with Torres in LF, should DeRosa be out for the season.   The two together should be effective in LF, as Bowker hits RHP better and Torres rakes against LHP.  And both have been good defensively in the OF.

And that theme of risk mitigation has recurred over and over again this season, unfortunately.  First Sanchez out until who knows when, but Uribe has been great in his stead.  Then there was Rowand out, and that was the one position we did not have a ready replacement for (at least in my opinion, I've never been a Velez fan, and he unfortunately did what I thought he would), so we struggled while he was out.  Renteria was next and that moved Uribe to SS and allowed Downs to start regularly.  And now DeRosa looks to be out and Bowker is there to try to pick it up in his stead.

Risk Mitigation Has Worked So Far

And that has worked for the most part this season.  The offense has been regularly churning out runs, except for that first week trying to figure out who would take over for Rowand.  They have averaged 4.67 runs scored per game for the season.  And if you take out that bad 7 game stretch while they struggled without him, the team has averaged 5.61 runs scored when the offense was working.

People may not like signing all these players because of the risks, but by getting all these vets, the Giants have a lot of players who they can mix and match in order to keep the offense running.  And that has worked despite all the various players going on the DL and the injuries that don't DL but certainly hampers things.  If they did not sign these players, Bowker's failure to start the season well could have killed the offense, as well as Sanchez and Renteria being on the DL, and now we will see how it works with DeRosa's injury.  And Molina sustaining his injury, should he need the DL, would have had Posey come up.

Young players will not produce for sure.  Even the best ones can end up struggling to figure out major league pitching.  Vets are a better bet overall, but you risk age-related injuries and performance declines.  By having the vets as the starters but young players as backup, as well as other backups (like Uribe), you reduce the risk that any one particular injury would hamper your team's offense.

But Depth Only Goes So Far

But you can only have so much depth.  No team can provide multiple levels of coverage, other than the Yankees and maybe Boston and the Mets.  So the Giants have been stretched thin with all the players on the DL, and it will be tested severely if DeRosa is declared out and Bowker is the starter for sure in LF, though platooning with Torres.

Unfortunately, a lot of the young prospects who might be considered for the jump to the majors from AA have not been hitting well.  In AAA, two of the three (Downs and Rohlinger) are up now and Posey has been declared not ready for the majors by Sabean recently.

There is also Joe Borchard, as a commenter noted, but he is 31 years old, plays corner OF so far, so perhaps he can be given the call-up, except he's not on our 40 man and we have no open slots so we would lose someone, and he is not hitting so well that he will be sure to do well in the majors.  31 year olds are suppose to hit that well, he is a classic AAAA player.  And the last time he was considered a good prospect was in 2003.

The only other hitter of note in the farm system close enough to maybe consider is Brandon Belt, but he's only in Advanced A San Jose and he only plays 1B where Huff has been doing well for us.  He should be promoted to AA Richmond soon, within the next month, since he has been absolutely hot for the Little Giants.  If he can continue to hit, he could be up with the Giants by late 2011 or be the starter in 2012 at 1B. He is left-handed and skilled defensively at 1B too.  And he did not strike out that much in San Jose and walked a lot, so that bodes well for him doing well in AA when he gets the promotion.

So the Giants are stretched thin now, particularly if DeRosa goes on the DL before Sanchez rejoins the team. They have pushed it to the limits so far.  And now we will need Bowker to start hitting, but the silver lining is that even if he doesn't hit, neither has DeRosa, and the team has been scoring runs pretty easily despite that, so perhaps with no pressure to produce, unlike the pressure he probably felt when he was starting in RF to start the season, he might relax and show us the hitter he was in AAA last season.

I would really like to see Bowker get most of the starts in LF while DeRosa is out, whether resting or DLed.  I wanted to see Bowker get to start in 2010 anyway, but did like the DeRosa signing if he was the hitter he is when he is healthy.  That is a sure upgrade if he's healthy and he can play multiple positions well.  But you have to take some risks, and now we at least have Bowker in reserve.  Now we need him to deliver some extra unexpected offense.

Hobbling Along: 2010 Giants Injury Status

Thought I would run by some of the injury updates that have come up over the past week or so:

Freddy Sanchez probably not ready by Opening Day

Everyone was expecting this anyway, so not real big news, but just further admission of this fait accompli. Which I think is good anyway. Why rush Sanchez into uniform? We have Juan Uribe to start in his place right now, plus perhaps Frandsen could get some starts as well if he's on the bench too. DeRosa can play there if necessary as well.

Meanwhile, that opens up a spot on the bench for somebody who may be out of options. It could enable the Giants to keep Steve Johnson, their Rule 5 pick, on the 25 man for a couple of weeks to see how he does. It could also enable the Giants to hold onto a player who is out of options, like Ishikawa (though I would note that the way they have made a point to talk about him, he was going to be on the bench barring some huge lack of spring performance), Lewis, and Torres. Recent news (giantsrainman captured it well here at McCovey Chronicles) verified that Frandsen and Velez still have one option left. I think Velez is going to end up in Fresno for 2011, however, particularly if Ishikawa is OK playing LF, as they plan to do this spring (plus Frandsen can play LF if he is on the bench as well).

I think the sure bench players are Whiteside (no way Posey starts as backup, he needs the EXPERIENCE), Uribe, and Ishikawa, leaving two spots, three with Sanchez on DL and Uribe starting. For the two spots, I'm still thinking Frandsen and Lewis, though with DeRosa capable, they could keep Torres around instead of Frandsen. But he had a lucky year in 2009, I would rather see Frandsen up and maybe getting a few starts while Sanchez is out.

The extra spot then goes to someone who otherwise would have been sent down, but did well enough in spring to get some reward. Johnson would be first on the list, and his bar for achievement is lower because we lose him otherwise. This article also noted that Johnson is being looked at as a 5th starter, which makes sense to me because he's been a starter for much of his minor league career.

Neal HBP in the head

Neal has a bump but otherwise has no ill affects, laughing it off, and thus is cleared to continue preparations for the season. Schulman reported that he got hit last year too. He is the only position prospect, other than Posey, that I think has any hope of contributing to the major league club this season (I'm not counting Bowker, Burriss, or Frandsen, since they don't count as a rookie, which most people use as the cutoff for prospects).

Burris and his left foot toe

On his second extra-base hit the other day, he came up feeling pain in the toe (fractured fifth metatarsal) that he hurt last year. He took himself out of the game as a precaution. He is on crutches but his X-ray was clean, so that is good. MRI is next step, which happened earlier today and he is hoping that all he did was tear scar tissue, in which case he could resume playing next week.

I don't expect him to win a bench job, they used recovery of injury to send Frandsen down last year, so I expect the same for Burriss this year plus they probably want him to get acclimated again with SS, since Renteria's contract is up this year (though there is a team option if I remember right) and Sanchez is signed to 2011.

Good news on Ishikawa and his step-toe

Travis tore some ligaments in his left foot, falling down the stairs recently (he described as similar to "turf-toe") and had been working out with a walking boot. He just got out of the boot and says that he is feeling great. As I noted above, Bochy has been high on Ishikawa, as can be seen in this blog post by Haft, indicating that Ishikawa "has [a] strong chance of claiming a Major League job."

It just makes sense to keep Ishikawa around. First, he played great defense at 1B and hit well in AT&T. Second, they don't have any 1B ready to take over should anything happens to Huff, other than Ishikawa, they don't have much depth. They could play DeRosa or Sandoval there, but that would then weaken LF or 3B, though I suppose they could move DeRosa to 3B, Sandoval to 1B, then whoever to LF (Lewis, Bowker, Velez). It just seems like, as I read Ishikawa noting somewhere recently, he understands that the Giants got Huff to compete this season, and so he's preparing himself to support the team. Third, he's currently our best option for 2011, unless Neal or Pill can have a monster year in 2010 and take over 1B. Given the Giants preference for defense at 1B, Ishikawa is probably going to be around for at least this year.

Mark DeRosa, chopping on the bit

He had his left wrist surgically repair last season and has been slowly getting into shape, not wishing to cause any setback by rushing things. He had been hoping to start the first game on Wednesday, but is not concerned that it is not 100% yet, as it just gets tired and he will need to build it up, by taking enough swings every day. He is reportedly "close to full batting practice", which is not as good as actually playing but a step closer to that goal.

Baggarly noted, however, that it is not uncommon for players who undergo wrist surgery to require a full year before they feel no pain or inflammation, and he was operated just after the season ended. So we'll see if DeRosa can play at his recent levels of offensive production or if he'll have a down season.

Fans not the only one embarrassed by Renteria in 2009

Renteria was embarassed too. His surgery was the simplest of all the surgeries and he appears to be recovering fine. Baggarly noted, "His swing looked unfettered as he pounded a couple of BP fastballs over the left-field fence." Bochy noted, "That elbow feels so much better. It's a sense of relief, too, knowing he can let the bat go with no pain." Hopefully this means a return to the good hitting he did in prior years, which would be a great boon to the lineup, as it could use another 800+ OPS hitter, at his high end, or even a mid to high 700 OPS hitter, which he was in other seasons.

Giants Thoughts

Nothing really to worry about above, though perhaps DeRosa. But if it is just fatigue, then the Giants can bring in somebody for him late in the game, that should not affect his production otherwise. And good news generally for all the players.

Plus, Sanchez on the DL allows the Giants to take an extended look at someone during the season, particularly Steve Johnson, the Rule 5 pick. That would also allow the Giants to justify returning Bumgarner to the minors and AAA, where he can pitch for a couple of months and either force his way onto the roster or perfect some more pitches, because if his velocity is down, he is not forcing his way onto the roster and will need those other pitches. That would allow the Giants to carry both Wellemeyer and Johnson, to take a look at both, until dropping one when Sanchez comes off the DL.

Sanchez being out also allows the Giants to take a closer look at Frandsen and other 2B options during the spring. They need to see these players in as many game situations as they can to figure out who best to keep and who to cut. Particularly if there are so many players who still have an option available, like Frandsen and Velez.

2010 Spring Training: Brings Fresh News

Here are some good articles by Baggarly, Schulman, Ostler, and Haft. And Baggarly again. Here are the news and thoughts, in no particular order:

• Wellemeyer, as I and others suspected, will be battling Bumgarner for the #5 starting spot, as well as Pucetas and Martinez. I don't know how fair that will be, as Bumgarner should be able to pitch circles around them, but hopefully the Giants will not be judging by who is better, but whether Bumgarner is ready or not for the starting rotation. No use bringing him up until he's ready. I'm hoping that Bumgarner gets to pitch in AAA most of the 2010 season, only coming up in August or September to give the rotation a boost.
• Posey is only getting reps at 1B, and only to get starts when he is not catching. And that is long-term, not just for 2010. He is the future starting catcher, make no mistake about that, they are not trying to convert him to another position. They just want the option of starting him at 1B and keeping his bat in the lineup when he gets a rest from catching. That would make a good platoon situation with Ishikawa at 1B.
• Travis Ishikawa fell down some stairs and gave himself an extreme turf toe, damaging ligaments. He should be well soon, but if no healing since, he'll need surgery and be out 3 months. Too bad, he really needs the time in the majors and that would cost him big time. That could be as costly as Clint Barmes infamous fall down the stairs carrying up the deer meat that Todd Helton shot.
• Rowand worked out this off-season to get himself in better shape for 2010. Now why couldn't he have done that when we signed him to a $60M contract, I don't know. What a gamer... NOT! Damn straight he should be doing cardio. Hopefully, though, this is the key to him hitting well all season and not petering out, maybe he'll finally be worth the money paid him.
• DeRosa is the new hot-head, replacing Carney Lansford. He's going into players' faces if they don't do well executing as a hitter, which will have more impact than a coach like Carney doing it. Unfortunately, none of our other vets were that type last season.
• Freddy Sanchez is a week ahead of his rehab schedule but hesistant to say that he will be ready to start the season. He is probably being cautious because he thought he was ready in December but his first swing told him he still had more problems.
• Frandsen is getting a new uniform number in hopes of getting a fresh start as he battles for a utility position. I am rooting for him and still believe in his bat, but with Noonan, Burriss, and Crawford coming up relatively soon, I see very little chance of him winning a starting spot ever with us.
• I've been encouraged by all the news about Bam Bam Meulens work with our players, and the news regarding Pablo Sandoval and Nate Schierholtz. They are two key hitters for our long-term prospects, and if both can deliver (or continue to deliver in Panda's case), then our future is looking good.

Jonathan Sanchez Breakout

Also, here is something I wrote regarding Sanchez breaking out as a comment elsewhere:

Here is why I think Sanchez is due for a breakout in 2010: he was due for it in 2009 but then the WBC happened, then the no-hitter happened.

He had a great first half of 2008 (ERA below 4) but then tired in the second half. He prepared over the winter and was ready (as shown by his great second half). However, in the WBC, he decided to copy Johan Santana's mechanics, because he admires Johan.

However, Johan is not as tall as Sanchez and thus while the mechanics work for a shorter man, it did not work for Sanchez. And it screwed him up during the season until he finally gave up on it and throw the way he did before, at which point he threw the no-hitter, which I think is the other reason why he will break out in 2010.

His problem has never been with the physical, he has been a bit of a headcase for his career, exemplified by his Johan-move last season. But I think the no-hitter for him is equivalent to the Wizard giving the diploma to Scarecrow, he always had it in him, but he just needed something to convince his head that he's really that good.

And any pitcher who can strike out over a batter an inning in the majors is that good, hence why Sabean kept him while many fans were clamoring for him to trade Sanchez for offense. I think he made the right move, which I doubt any of the people who called to trade Sanchez would ever admit that they got wrong.

That he worked again this off-season shows his maturity as well as his realization that he still tired out in September (his ERA rose a lot that month), and so he worked again at becoming stronger and more capable of going strong deeper into the season. I would say that this would pay off not only in September but also October, should the Giants make it to the playoffs (I think they have put themselves in good position for that).

I also think that being the 4th starter will help him win more too. With a sub-4 ERA, as he appears ready to do, he should mop up in the 4th spot, much like Zito did last season, and get a lot of wins. Despite having a poor September, Zito got a bunch of wins, while Lincecum and Cain, while pitching well, did not pick up as many wins. I think Sanchez can greatly prop up the back end of the rotation and pick up a lot of wins, I would not be surprised to see him get 15 or more wins.

DeRosa Press Conference

Andy Baggarly has a report on the conference call announcing the signing of DeRosa:

• No set position or place in the lineup yet for DeRosa. He don't mind as long as he's in the lineup everyday.
• Sandoval is still floating as well, either 1B or 3B, depending on where the Giants can add another bat.
• Still looking for another hitter. Will focus on 5th starter and catcher later. In previous talks, already said he would be happy starting the season with Bumgarner as the last starting pitcher and Posey the starting catcher, though he would prefer to start Posey in the minors.
• Giants have an offer to Uribe still. Could win the starting position at 3B.
• The Giants are LaRoche were miles apart during the winter meetings; unlikely to do anything.
• Holliday's contract demands price him above where the Giants are willing to go.
• Adrian Beltre appears to not be on the Giants pursuit list.
• Giants trainers were "pleasantly suprised at the condition of [DeRosa's] wrist when he had his physical. Expects to be 100% by spring training.
• Other teams viewed him as a contingency plan in case they didn't land a better one, and he didn't like being Plan B. Plus, he wanted to be able to choose where he goes versus being forced to go somewhere.
• Bochy likes DeRosa batting 5th. I think that's a good spot too, because his OBP is relatively high for the team, plus his SLG is generally high because of his HR power.
• He likes playing infield as that is where he came up as, but he's willing to do whatever the team wants, whatever is best for the team. He is fine with giving Bochy a lot of options, he realizes that is what got him to this point in his career.

You Say DeLefty, I Say DeRosa

Most reports are stating that the Giants are signing Mark DeRosa to a 2 year, $12M contract. Hank Schulman has his blog entry on it, Yahoo has one on that plus signing Uribe, and the ever reliable MLB Trade Rumors has a post on it, chronicling the timeline.

Judging from the posts there and elsewhere, fans are not that enamored with the deal. Some say it's an overpay, others say that he's not the answer, and there are the few who like the deal.

Giants Thoughts

I don't have any problem with the signing of DeRosa. His versatility gives the Giants a lot of options around the diamand plus another power bat in the lineup, along with decent OBP. We have a lot of question marks - LF, RF, 1B, C - and he can fill 3 of those. He can also play 2B and 3B.

Thus if Bowker, Lewis, and Schierholtz all struggle, DeRosa could be a steady offensive producer in the corner OF. It looks like Ishikawa is being given another chance to start at 1B against RHP, so when there is a LHP starting, DeRosa could play either 2B or 3B, with Sanchez playing the other position, and Sandoval would move to 1B. If anybody is injured or going through a bad stretch, DeRosa could pitch in there. He's going to be our goto super-utility guy.

I'm OK with Uribe if he's not signed to too much money. People love him but he played above his head in 2009, he's not likely to repeat that performance. He's more likely to repeat his 2006, 2007, 2008 performances where he wasn't that good. And that's OK, he's out backup player at 2B, 3B, and SS plus is another power bat off the bench.

This also does not negate the possibility of the Giants signing a power hitting 1B or LF either. DeRosa is probably going to be, at minimum, the hitter getting all the ABs against LHP when Ishikawa sits. Sanchez hasn't made it through a season without some rest, and Rowand will need some more rest as well, as Bochy noted, so DeRosa could play RF for a game with Schierholtz taking over CF, which he did on occasion in the majors. Not an ideal situation long term, but for a game here and there, it's tolerable.

I think his salary is OK. $5M would have been better but $6M is fair enough for his versatility and his ability to play for significant parts of a season and performing well doing that. His age is a concern, but even with the injury, he still hit 10 HR in 239 AB, so it was not his power gone, it was his ability to get base hits and getting on base that suffered.

And as I've noted, the offense even with no other moves should be improved over 2009's and DeRosa would nudge it up a little more. And with our pitching as good as it was, it won't take much more to push us to the 90-95 win range, which should be good enough to compete for the NL West title.