Your 2014 Giants: Javier Lopez Re-signed to three-year $13M Contract

As reported by all the usual suspects (here is the Haft analysis, for example), Javier Lopez signed a three-year $13M contract with the Giants and it just became official yesterday, after he had his physical.  To get him onto the 40-man roster, which was filled up by the recent promotion of minor leaguers ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, the Giants outrighted Jose Mijares to AAA, who, after clearing waivers (i.e. no team wanted to take him onto their 40 man roster, most likely because they would have to go into arbitration with him), elected for free agency instead of AAA, probably in hopes of finding a major league roster at a lower (but still higher than minor league pay) price point.  He was already being rumored to be a non-tender candidate (MLBTR had him pegged at $2.1M via arbitration)

Lopez was swayed by Sabean stating that the Giants wanted him back last season, apparently on more than one occasion.  It was "a big deal" to Lopez, as he had never had a GM do that before.  However, not swayed enough to sign before becoming a free agent, and it was reported that he had interest from up to 10 teams.  The biggest competition for his services had been reported to be the Nationals, because he grew up in the DC area and still have family and friend there who were hoping he would sign there.  However, he noted that he wants "to finish up as a Giant and that was ultimately a better place for me at this time."

ogc thoughts

About time, I was getting a little worried that the Nats might sway him, even though reporters noted that he would probably bring any deal to the Giants before moving on.  That is a great contract, it covers his 36, 37, and 38 YO seasons and as a LOOGY, he don't get used much, so his arm is still relatively unused, plus, in general, LHP seem to have longer careers.  It is also great as it worked out to $4.3M per season, and I and many others thought that he would end up with $6M per season.  And he just had his best season ever, so even if he declined some, he would still be great.  I'm very happy with this signing.

Looking at his stats, I noticed a very interesting anomaly, which speaks to the Giants magic with pitchers.  At the time he was acquired, his K/9 was 5.5 K/9 and BB/9 was 4.2, for a 1.33 K/BB and while he was pitching OK for Pittsburgh before he was traded to us, it was around his career numbers, 5.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9, 1.22 K/BB, though lower, as he had his worse season ever in 2009, where he was totally lost (6.9 BB/9!).  Here is his Giants career numbers:  7.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.24 K/BB, all very good numbers and a stark contrast with his career numbers before.  Before, 25% of inherited runners scored under his watch, with the Giants 12%.  And he had his best season ever in this too, with only 11% scoring, low before Giants was in 2004 with 13% and he had 19% in 2003, but from 2005 to 2010, before we got him, he had a 30% inherited runners scoring on him (for comparison, in 2013, the Giants overall had 29% - and that is including his amazing numbers, and the league average was 27%).  Now you see why the Giants had to get him back.

Relievers are not Fungible

And, of course, the sabers are probably laughing at this deal right now.  Many believe that relievers are fungible and easily replaceable and thus money should be spent elsewhere.   The A's epitomizes this concept with Beane getting rid of his closers like a fantasy baseball team, picking up good assets in return.  There is an article out there pointing out how easily teams could replace their closer, that having an experienced closer is not that valuable, since these teams could replace their prior, failing, closer so easily.

The problem, for me, is that this is not true.  If it was, we would not have gone through the Benitez Experience and the aftermath of that.  If Nen's production was easy to replace, then why wasn't the transition smoother, it took years before we got Wilson as a true valid replacement of Nen.  And for all you Sabean Naysayers, it is not just the Giants having this problem, other teams do too, plus the Giants history with the bullpen is pretty good overall, we have usually had a strong bullpen throughout the Sabean era, as well as picking up good relievers that others discarded, like Casilla and Eyre.

And just because you have a closer does not mean that he will come through for you when the chips are down in the playoffs.  You may be able to easily replace a closer, but none of the analysis I've ever seen on this subject takes into account the quality of the replacement.  Saves are always going to go to someone, and even the worse teams in the league will have a guy saving 30 games, just because someone has to get that opportunity.

Put another way, if finding good relievers is so easy and cheap, then why do so many clubs have problems with their bullpen?  Teams know their talent, studies have shown this, so then it would be an easy matter of dumping the pitchers who are not good and inserting in the good relievers that you can find so easily and cheaply.  By this logic then, every team should be able to have a bullpen group that is incredibly good.  The whole house of cards that sabers have built on their relievers are fungible concept falls apart given how hard it is to find good relievers, let alone good closers.

The Giants have had a great luxury over the past few years.  They have had at least three guys capable of closing for them:  Romo, Casilla, and Affeldt, plus Wilson previously.  If Hembree makes the team, we could be back up to four again, depending on Affeldt coming back from his injury marred season (I do expect that).   If you want that mass of talent in the back of your bullpen, you need to pay for them eventually.

Mijares Era is Over

We hardly knew ye!  He had an OK season, 4.22 ERA, but great 9.9 K/9 and 2.70 K/BB, which are all very good pitching peripherals, plus Bill James reported him at 63% strikes thrown and 16% swinging strikes, both good numbers, and he'll be only 29 YO next season, so why the DFA?  He could even be a pretty good LOOGY if given the chance, LHB only hit .276/.343/.367/.710 against him, very low OPS (though, wow, very high batting average and OBP), great 4.38 K/BB, and excellent 35 K's out of 109 PA.  I think it was a combination of things.

First of all, he's a reliever, but he wasn't good with runners inherited.  He allowed 41% of his runners to score, one of the highest on the team (second highest for relievers with 25 or more inherited runners; FYI, Dunning was first with 44%).  As noted above, the league average is 27%, so he was pretty bad.  And he had the second most inherited runners, with 46, only Lopez was higher (making his 11% even more impressive).

Secondly, on top of that, his leverage index was only 0.732, where 1.0 is average pressure, so it was not like he was used in high pressure situations a lot.  It should have been easy peasy to keep those runners from scoring.  And in his 16 high leverage situations, though he only gave up 4 runs out of 16 runners, an OK 25% scoring rate, emblematic of his struggles in such situations, his first one of the 2013 season, he came in with no runners and left with the bases loaded, and that was not the only time that happened in the season.

Finally, as nice as it is to have three lefty relievers in the bullpen, saving Lopez and Affeldt for set-up duties, the Giants probably are going to have a roster crunch there.  There are 7 bullpen spots for the Giants.  We already have Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, and now Lopez signed for the 2014 season and taking the key roles in the bullpen, leaving three.  Petit is out of options so he most likely will be our long reliever (as signified by the Giants releasing Moscoso recently), leaving two spots.

For those two spots, just from the expected relievers we had last season, these guys will be battling for spots:  Jake Dunning, Heath Hembree, George Kontos, Jean Machi, and Sandy Rosario.   I noted Dunning's problems with inherited runners above (his leverage was low too).  Rosario only had a 61% strike thrown and 13% swinging strikes, both very low, with a very low 5.2 K/9 while a very high 4.3 BB/9 for a lousy 1.20 K/BB ratio, all belying his 3.02 ERA (probably earned by his fellow relievers saving him from a much worse ERA).  Rosario's hold on a roster spot is probably as tenuous as Mijares if the Giants need another 40-man spot.

That leaves Hembree, Kontos and Machi as the most likely ones to win the two spots.  And after his sterling debut in 2013, I would think the Giants is hoping that Hembree is ready to take a spot in the bullpen (he had a great 66% strike thrown rate and 26% swinging strike).  Also, Kontos had a great 2012 for us, and admitted that he came into 2013 not in the best of shapes, so he's probably dedicated to returning to his 2012 form.  And Machi had a great season for us, and one of our fastest fastballs on the staff, 92.8 MPH average (though also high inherited runners scoring, 34%, but same as Kontos; Kontos ).  Plus, Derek Law really shined this season and continued it into the AFL, so he could be the dark horse for a spot.

If I had to guess, I think Hembree is being penciled in for a spot, similar to Wilson in his first try for a roster spot (he blew it with a poor spring), and that Kontos and Machi will be battling for that last reliever spot, with Law having an outside chance of earning it over them.  FYI, Kontos had a good 65% strike thrown rate and 17% swinging strike, and Machi had a good 64%, but excellent 18% swinging strike rate.

So it is already a pretty crowded and competitive situation in the bullpen, even without considering Mijares as an option.  And as much as Mijares could be a LOOGY, we already have one of the best in the game in Lopez, so it would be a luxury to have two.  So the writing has been on the wall, for a while now, as there has been talk since the season ended that he was one likely to be non-tendered.

Thanks and good luck to Mijares, he did great for us in 2012 (had a great 11% inherited runners scoring and 2.55 ERA), and helped us in the playoffs, especially in the NLCS with 3 strong appearances, 2.0 IP, one hit and one walk, with 3 strikeouts.   He will always be able to show off his World Series ring wherever he goes.

Your 2013 Giants: Done and Done

Wow, I knew that the season was reaching a crucial point, but did not see it crashing and burning so fast.  As Boof aptly commented on another post, the season appears to be done.  And the Giants appear to be acknowledging this by bringing up Brett Pill and Roger Kieschnick.

ogc thoughts

Everyone has their own milestone where they give up on the season.  But I prefer logic to have governance over that.  One of the great tools I've seen for managing a baseball season I learned from Dusty Baker (and I've seen references to other people using this tool, I'm only acknowledging my source) during one of his interviews long ago.

One Game A Week, That's All He Asks

Basically, the rule is to make up one game in the standings per week.  One of the best project management tips I have ever heard for breaking down a much larger project into an easily comprehended and calculated metric.  That helps players get out from under a huge deficit in the standings and be able to take a breath and not be as nervous/pressurized about where the team is in the standings.

However, the flipside of that is if you are more games behind than weeks left in the season, then your team is in a pretty bad position in competing for the division title.  And the Giants just passed that this past week, as they are now 10 games back (oops, 11 games...)  and there are only 8 weeks (roughly) left in the season.  While I never give up final hope until September and this rule is in effect, for me, now that we are behind by that much, looking ahead to next season while trying to be competitive should now be the focus.

I have seen a lot of people say that it has been over for a while - one in fact asked me to apologize for saying that the Giants still had a chance - so the above is the reasoning I use for guiding following my team.   There is no apology forthcoming.

Frankly, some of them are those I've seen before who said the team had no chance in 2010 and 2012, that the season was over, further, are people I've seen in late 2000's decade saying that the Giants were done and going nowhere, and they were clearly wrong, so why would I listen to them now?  And some were very rude to me but I've never gotten an apology nor do I expect one from people who are so delusional to think that people like me would now listen to what they are spouting off now about the Giants when they have been mostly wrong for the past six or more years about the Giants direction.  Just because they think the sky is falling and it actually does one time does not make them futuristic savants whose latest missives I should heed.

Not that you should heed my missives either, I wholeheartedly believe in sharing what information I know so that if I'm as delusional as others, I get pulled back from the ledge as well.  I think I've been in a good spot, the Giants weren't doing well, but there were some signs of improvement that I pointed out as positives for the future - and for all the Naysayers saying they called it, not all of you did because the pitching this last weekend was amazing and some of you thought they were done - that did not work out as I thought they might.  It happens.

I still have some hope of the Giants getting back into contention for the same reasons I thought that they still had a chance.  But we are so far back that we need to start at least figuring out some things for next season. 

Looking Forward

Lots of things happening, lots of things to consider.  Here are the ones I can remember:

• Heston was DFAed and resigned with us, he's in AAA
• Hunter Strickland was DFAed and still has a few more days before we find out what happens with him, but given he has been out since early April, I don't see any team dropping someone on their 40 man to pick up a still injured player.
• Petit was surprisingly (to me) DFAed after his nice relief outing for us, so Shankbone's observation that Petit didn't have that great of stuff in spring training seems to be the best explanation of that move.
• The Giants picked up Guillermo Moscosco from the Cubs for cash or a player to be named later, which is why the Giants dropped Petit.   
• Giants activated Arias and optioned Dunning, who did a great job for us, to Fresno.
• Brian Wilson had a nice session in front of MLB teams and a handful, including the Giants, are interested in his services and are serious contenders.  Still don't know if he's mad at the Giants enough to not sign with them - it seemed like he had burned that bridge already though - or if he's cooled down enough to be open to it.  However, a retweet by John Shea of a Tim Brown tweet noted that Wilson signed with Dodgers.  Hard to tell if that was a big middle finger to Giants or just the Dodgers love for ex-Giants (Colletti) and/or big stack of cash they have burning in their pockets.  Part of me was wishing he would return, but the poor homestand put the kibosh on that, he didn't work as hard as he did to return only to pitch for a non-contender.
• Vogie still appears to be on track to return sometime in the first half of August. 
• Abreu was placed on the 15 day DL while Tanaka was optioned to Fresno. 
• Pill and Kieschnick were both called up,meaning Arias is the only backup MI.

Given that Belt has been struggling now for about a month, I would think that Pill will be platooning with him at 1B to give Pill some playing time.  I assume that Francoeur's and Tanaka's struggles with the bat is part of the impetus to calling up Kieschnick, but he earned his call-up by hitting really well recently, basically in July, and getting his strikeout rate down significantly, enough that it is almost good.  Roger was pretty bad in June and probably hence why Sabean said that he was not close last month.  Maybe Roger will start platooning with Francoeur in LF, it is interesting that the Giants kept Francoeur around given how poorly he's been hitting (part of it is that he's been having bad BABIP luck, he has a good contact rate with us right now, just not the batting line to reflect that; but his BABIP has not been good the past two years, perhaps that's not part of his skill set anymore, still, his contact rate has been great, maybe the Giants helped him tweak something, remember, players joining Bochy teams tend to add a win - altogether - per season).  That may have to do with the Pence trade possibility.

The beats say that the Giants are not looking to trade anyone specifically but are at the point where they have to listen to deals and see what they can get.  Sabean has already pointed out that Lincecum and Pence will get qualifying offers, which means that they get picks, and that sets the minimum bar for what the Giants would want for them.  Sounds like the Giants are unlikely to trade Lincecum however, while Pence is available for the right price, but the Giants appear to still want to resign Pence.

Rumors include:

• Belt to Astros for Bud Norris (mere speculation, I think, due to Pill call-up)
• At minimum, the Giants were "hard in"  on Norris previously, so that is something to note.  And the Astros are looking for at least a top prospect, so that means, for the Giants, starting with Crick probably, maybe Blackburn would be OK too, to start.
• Lopez for prospects (more speculation since he's valuable to contender and a free agent after the season).
• Reportedly, Reds are interested in Pence, as well as the Yankees, Rangers and Pirates. 
• Scutaro has also been subject to speculation as well among fans, due to his age and contract.

I have not really cared for many of the trade suggestions/rumors.  I expect the Giants to compete in 2014 and trading away Lincecum, Pence, or even Belt would diminish our chances greatly, I believe.  That's because I still believe in Lincecum and Pence, and hope the Giants resign them.

Not that I think that they will be bargains either, I expect to overpay some.  In Lincecum's case, we just don't know what we are going to get.  I don't expect him to get any deal over $15M per season, and when it's that close to the qualifying offer, I don't see why the Giants won't just offer around that much if he turns down the QO and why he won't resign in hopes of rebuilding his free agent value with the team for one more season.  Meanwhile, I'm hoping he makes the transition in 2014 to pitcher from thrower, or if not, transition to a super utility reliever who pitches as short or as long and as often as he feels like it.  I'm willing to overpay 2014 in case he's that close, and I think he is.  If 2014 is another bad year, then I'll be willing to let him go.

Pence I think is way overpriced.  Not that great defensively, and really, his offense isn't THAT great, though good.  But the Giants offense cannot get any worse without hurting our chances in 2014 and frankly I doubt there is anyone out on the market that we can get equivalent production for cheaper cost.  So I'm willing to overpay to $13-15M per year for him for 3-4 seasons to retain his offensive production.

Belt I still believe in.  I understand some are frustrated, but just look at Matt Williams' arc, he took three seasons to figure things out, before busting out in his fourth season, so I would rather keep Belt to see if he can do that, he's actually hit much better than Matt did in their early seasons.  When there is the potential for a Votto-like player, I think you just have to be patient with him.  But Norris is pretty good too, so I would probably do that trade if it were available, but I have to think that they would want younger prospects for Norris.

Same with Sandoval.  I understand why some want to trade him (particular Shankbone), but guys who are potential 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and while an offense with Posey, Pence, Belt is good, it would that much better with Sandoval.  I will put up with him and be OK with getting a draft pick for him when he leaves, that's too much risk to go long-term with him without a clause on his weight.

The two I am OK with trading are Scutaro and Lopez.  Scutaro the Giants really only wanted for two seasons, and he's hitting well, so if someone wants to overpay for him, great, take the deal, but it is only for so-so prospects, then that's OK, I would keep him.

Lopez makes the most sense.  He's a free agent and Mijares has done very well for us, so we have a ready replacement already.  Some are hoping for a bonanza like the A's got with Reddick, but really, that was just a fluke, like the Mets trading Kazmir, you have to be in the right time, right place, right players, right desperation/stupidity.  You don't hope to get such deals, you just fall into them.

Still, a shutdown lefty reliever like him was shown to be very valuable during the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, and a team might be willing to overpay some to get him.  He's the only one I would push to trade and do it for the best offer out there.  That would also free up space for one of our AAA relievers to come up and see what he's got.

With Moscosco in tow now, the Giants now have Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Gaudin, and Moscosco as the 2014 starting rotation, not great but not too bad either.  The Giants can now enter into negotiations with Lincecum wanting him to return, but not needing him to return. 

Your 2012 Giants: Closer by Committee (or Moving Back One Inning?)

Wow, changes were even more drastic than I originally thought.  As reported by all the usual suspects in the SF Bay Area media (here's Schulman's since he originally broke the implications of Affeldt closing first), Santiago Casilla is out as part of the closer by committee scheme that was the apparently impetus for Schulman's spot-on speculation that the Mijares move was tied to having Affeldt being put in closing situations.

The reasoning is still the same, that blister issues is affecting Casilla's effectiveness, but his issues apparently are worse than initially mentioned because he warmed up early in yesterday's game (7th) and was almost immediately shut down due to the blister issue.  I would guess that maybe once he gets healthy, he'll be moved into a more prominent role, but for now, they are resting him as much as possible without DLing him so that he can get healthy while still being available occasionally for bullpen duties.

Instead, for the closer-by-committee scheme, Bochy will now mix and match Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, and Javier Lopez in the 8th and 9th, with Casilla, Hensley, Kontos, Penny, Mijares handling 6th and 7th, mostly (though clearly getting some late game work, for Penny was seen warming up in last night's game in the 9th).  They say (that is, Affeldt spoke for everyone) that once Bochy explained things, they understood their roles and is behind this closer by committee situation (even though Affeldt had said at the start of this season that he wasn't sure how it works).

The way it works is by matchups, so depending on who is coming up, Bochy might use Romo first one night, Affeldt first another night, Lopez first on some nights, and the mix and matching begins.

Supp's On and Other Arbitrary Moves

Jeff Suppan has signed with the Giants to try to make the 25-man roster (report by Schulman).  If he makes the roster, he gets $1M contract and probably some incentives based on IP.  He also can opt to leave the team should he not make the MLB team out of spring training.

He is the Giant's leading 6th starter alternative now, and, assuming he passes the audience, if you read between the lines in all the press about his acquisition, looks like he can make the 25-man roster out of spring as the long man out of the pen.  He is also insurance if, god forbid, any of the starting pitchers are out for any reason.  That makes some sense given prior statements by the Giants, and general overall concern over the work put on the arms of the starters in 2010 because of the playoffs and World Series.  They might go to Suppan sooner when the game gets out of hand, to reduce the IP load on starters, plus conceivably could start the season with both Bumgarner and Suppan in the bullpen, since the 5th starter isn't needed until in late April, typically, or start Suppan in the rotation initially with Bumgarner in the bullpen, to both ease the workload on the rest of the starters.  Or they can really go out there and have 6 starters initially, as I had suggested the Giants do in late 2010 in order to ease the load on the starters plus keep them regularly starting every 6th day.

Dan Runzler now is the second alternative, probably will be placed in AAA to get his inning in there as a starter. That is preferred because, frankly, he was pretty wild as a reliever, though he did at least strike out enough to make that viable.  Often, for relievers who are too wild, the Giants in the past have put them into a starter role in order to give them more IP in which to figure out what their problem is, as well as extra work on figuring out another pitch to use, that might help their repertoire.  Also, starters have to pitch more slowly and thoughtfully than relievers do, and sometimes slowing things up like that helps the pitcher.  Plus, some pitchers need to take off some of the heat off their pitches in order to improve their control, and making them a starter helps to do that.

Arbitration Avoidance

The Giants continued their practice of avoiding arbitration by signing Santiago Casilla (as was rumored to have been basically done the other day of the other announcements for Ross, Sanchez, and Ramirez) to a $1.3M contract and Javier Lopez to a $2.375M contract (where do they get these numbers?).  Now they have Andres Torres left to sign ($1.8M offer/$2.6M asking) and reportedly (by Chronicle and probably others) he is very close to signing as well.  The Giants apparently wanted to focus on one year deals with everyone in order to get them signed before arbitration, but as I noted the other day, I hope they start on a long term contract with Jonathan Sanchez.

I would also hope for longer deals with Lincecum and Cain as well, but it would be my guess, based on prior preferences, Lincecum's agents will want to wait for a great 2011 to press for more money, and Cain took a big step in 2010, and probably could get more money by showing that was not a fluke in 2011.  I am more hopeful for a Cain signing since he loves being a Giant and has planted roots here in SF.

I wouldn't mind deals for Posey and Sandoval, but I would think the Giants would want to see another year out of Posey first and Sandoval's agents will want to be paid for 2009 production, not 2010 production, and there is still the matter of his weighty problems.  I also wouldn't mind a deal for Romo, just to get salary certainty for the coming years, but I am OK with waiting too, relievers are harder to value.  Lastly, Brian Wilson's deal is over this season, and I think 2012 is his last arbitration year, so maybe another 2 year deal, one contracted year, one option year.

2011 Arbitration Cases and Non-Tenders

The Giants decision on arbitrations tenders were released (Hank Schulman and Carl Steward).

As many expected, the Giants tendered outfielders Cody Ross and Andres Torres, starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and relief pitchers Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez.  The Giants usually come to an agreement with almost every player that are arbitration eligible, so this is just a formality for that process to hold their rights on the players.  The only ones that I can remember going to arbitration was A.J. Pierzitski and, of course, they almost went to it with Tim Lincecum last off-season.

The Giants also announced that they signed Mike Fontenot to a one year contract.  Schulman reported that it was for slightly over $1M; I think that is about what he got last season, I thought he might get as high as $1.5M, but maybe he wants to stay.  Sabean noted that he would be getting some looks at SS and be a backup there as well as 2B.

Oddly enough, they also announced that Eugenio Velez was also non-tendered.  He was not arbitration eligible, according to the report, but apparently the Giants wanted the spot on the 40-man for other purposes. Shulman noted a number of factors in this decision: his 40-man spot, that he's out of options and not expected to make the team, even the raise he'd be due by rule if he cleared waivers and was sent to Fresno.

Schulman also reported that Ray and Velez might be re-signed to minor league deals.  I don't really see that happening.  Velez can see how crowded the OF and 2B is on the Giants (particularly once Belt pushes Huff to LF), and as much as he might want to stay, his agent should be advising him to look elsewhere.  Ray could like it enough to stay, but he's a former closer and he wasn't that bad last season, so I think there would be other teams interested in him.  Perhaps he and the Giants have a handshake deal to do this to open a spot to enable the Giants to add another free agent, as desired, with the understanding that they will work it out for him to be on 25-man to start 2011 season.  A signal for this would be a split contract with a minor league salary and a major league salary if he makes the team.  We'll see.