Your 2015 Giants: Reviewing Schulman's Pre-Season Questions

Hank Schulman had a nice rundown review of the key questions he had regarding the Giants in the pre-season.   I wrote some comments down and thought I should post them here as well, with tweaks.

Your 2015 Giants: Second Half Thoughts

Given that this is often considered the halfway point for the season, I thought I would write about some current topics and thoughts on the second half, as well as playoff thoughts.

2015 Giants: June PQS

Happy Fourth of July!

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of June 2015, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 (wow, 10th year of this!) and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2015 Giants: Opening Day Roster

The 25-man roster has been settled.  Extra Baggs.  Chron. SFGiants.com

Pitching Staff (probable rotation):  Bumgarner, Peavy, Cain, Hudson, Lincecum;  but Vogelsong probably takes over Peavy's first start and then it sounds like the Giants plan to insert (or skip) pitchers as needed this season in order to maximize who they got facing any particular opponent of interest (like the Bridegrooms), using Vogie and Petit as needed.  There will not be a 6-man rotation.  Bullpen:  Casilla as closer, Romo (who will sub as closer as needed Bochy noted), Affeldt, Lopez, Machi, and Kontos (both relievers kept).

Starting (probable) lineup:  Aoki, Panik, Pagan, Posey, Belt, McGehee, Blanco, Crawford.  Bench:  Hanchez, Arias, Duffy, Maxwell.

To make this roster work, the Giants did the following moves.  DLed Pence, Ishikawa, and Cordier.  DFAed Ehire Adrianza.  

Your 2015 Giants: Final Roster Battles

With the news of Justin Maxwell being signed by the Giants to a $1M contract (and the DFA of Gary Brown to open up a 40-man roster spot), the Giants are left with only two more roster battles:  last bullpen spot and last MI bench spot.

Your 2014 Giants: I'm Not Panicking ... Yet

Some are worried or dismissive of Joe Panik.  He started out nicely, but then hit the skids, but has done better lately.  Sabean recently said that nobody's doing well among the prospects who have come up, though that appears to be before his recent up spurt, I suppose that could have motivated him.  Still, his batting line is nothing to celebrate.  Or is it?

ogc thoughts

One thing I noticed was that his contact rate was superb during this stretch of poor batting line, so I thought I would dig a little deeper into his numbers.  All SSS, so I'm not panicking yet, if anything I'm Paniking, as we'll see here.

He has only had 12 games, so there is nothing to really key on really, not enough sample data points.  That goes for both bad and good, in spite of the poor batting line.  BABIP can go wildly up and down in such small samplings, as we all know, so there is not a lot that can truly be said about his hitting.

For example, what has been masked by the poor hitting that initially followed his nice intro to the majors is that he has been hitting well lately.  In his last 6 games played, he has hit .368/.409/.421/.830, but .350 BABIP.   That is much better than his overall .257/.325/.314/.639 batting line.  Of course, that BABIP is likely not sustainable, but that could be regression to the mean due to his 0-for-12 he put up in his prior 4 games.  Or perhaps he was just lucky good now, and the before was his mean talent level.  Can't really tell right now.

What we can say, and this bodes well for his MLB future if he can continue this, is that in 35 AB, he only has 3 K's but do have 4 BB's.  That's a 91% contact rate as well as more walks than strikeouts, both of which only the best hitters in baseball can do.

According to Baseball Forecaster studies, hitters with above 1.0 BB/K ratios, on average, hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range, with 51% ending up above .300 and only 9% ending up below .250.  And that jives with hitters with contact rate in the 90's, they normally end up hitting .270-.290.  And combining his walk rate (10%) with his contact rate, again, roughly .280 hitter on average.  On top of all that, his pitches per PA is at 3.80, which is on the good side, and hitters in his range tended to have high OBP, .347, which is pretty good.

These all suggest that he should be able to raise his BA up another 20-30 points, roughly, putting him around .340-.350 OBP, which would be pretty good to get in the #2 spot of the batting order.

What this reminds me of was Dustin Pedroia's first month in the majors, in his first full season in 2007.  His batting line was horrible, but his batting peripherals were good, he wasn't striking out much, while walking a lot, much like Panik is in a little less than half a month of results.  And given enough time, he worked things out and has hit very well.

Not that Panik is on Pedroia's level.  Joe's ISO and SLG is not that good, and that is a key difference between the two, and I do not mean to suggest that they are similar level prospects.  Panik is profiling more like Burris than Pedroia, right now, because of the lack of power.  However, what I am trying to show is that quality will usually out when it comes to contact rate and BB/K ratios for hitters.   If Joe can hit for a high average with walks, and thus high OBP, he can be a very valuable hitter for us in the lineup.
 
However, batting second is not one of those spots, at least at the moment.  The lineup regression data shows that each point of SLG is very important for the #2 hitter (second most important after #4), and while a high BA helps to keep SLG higher, it don't really make up for a very poor ISO hitter.  

Panik would actually be better in the #3 spot, where a high OBP is rewarded, but low SLG/ISO is tolerable, ironic, since most old-time baseball men love to put their best hitters in the #3 spot, wasting their power there.   This is probably why our offense was doing so well when Pence was hitting second even while Sandoval was batting third and not doing that well (and I also noticed that Bochy was batting Posey third when he was struggling, so perhaps Bochy is aware of this anomaly as well).

Or, despite his lack of speed, he could be better batting leadoff than second, for if he is able to hit for average and high OBP, it would be better to bat him first and Pence second because Pence has that much more power than Panik.   However, if Pence is able to beat Panik in both OBP and SLG, it would be better probably to bat him first, it does vary depending on who is better in OBP and SLG, and by how much.

In any case, right now, given how poorly Hicks has been hitting and how poorly Arias has fielded 2B the past few seasons, I would rather give Panik the bulk of the starts there, just to see how long he can continue to show good batting peripherals and to see how good he is defensively there (so far the advanced stats are not liking him there, UZR and Total Zone have him as negative, though DRS has him at average or zero DRS, but it is still very SSS).

However, once or when Adrianza comes back from rehab, the Giants will have to make a choice, either DFA Adrianza or Hicks or send Panik back down to AAA.  Ehire still have a bit of time left on his rehab and the Giants will probably keep him down there as long as possible in order to see Panik as long as possible.

But like Panik, Adrianza had been hitting well before his injury, running up a 5 game hitting streak before his injury.  In June, he had 3 walks and 3 K's in 27 ABs, very good peripherals that showed in his batting line, .333/.419/.407/.827, but unsustainable .375 BABIP.   Still, you drop that to .300 BABIP, and you got around .258/.344/.332/.677, which is basically what we've been getting from Blanco off the bench, some OBP and great defense, but for MI.  And at MLB minimum.  So I would not expect the Giants to DFA Adrianza.

Hard Choices

Right now, it looks like the good vibes of the early Hicks success story is crashing down hard, possibly leading to a DFA when Adrianza is ready to come off the DL (unless he has another injury...).  Hicks in June hit .115/.246/.173/.419, with 23 strikeouts in only 52 AB (only 56% contact rate or horrible 44% strikeout rate) and with no homers.  As good as his defense has been, which is roughly at a 1 WAR seasonal rate, that in no way makes up for poor hitting like that.  It appears that the clock might have struck midnight for this Cinderella story.

Still, we don't know how the Joe Panik story will end up while Adrianza is still on the DL and rehabbing.  His good hitting could stop and the down cycle begins again, in which case, Hicks probably gets a reprieve and Panik gets sent down.  Or he could continue and make a strong case for DFAing Adrianza since Scutaro appears to be working towards joining the team after the ASB as a bench player, or even Arias, despite his new 2 year contract, he has not been hitting at all and he's only a good defensive player at 3B, making him a possible DFA candidate when/if Scutaro returns.   Or maybe Adrianza's injury lingers and reinjure easily.  Or the Giants could decide that one backup outfielder is enough again and send Perez back down since he still has his option for the season.  

The Giants will have to make some hard choices when/if Scutaro returns, and Panik and Adrianza are not the ones who are looking really bad right now, Arias is, as well as Hicks, for the two backup infield spots.   They are the ones on the edge right now, in my estimation.

Lots of options available to the Giants, some already utilized this season, as Perez has been up and down many times already this season, taking the Fresno Shuttle.  It will be interesting times for these Giants players, fortunately and unfortunately, and the Giants most likely will have to make a hard choice and let go of someone they like but must let go of because they have only 25 spots on the MLB roster.

Your 2014 Giants: Fickle FInger of Fate, Part Deux: Sans-a-Belt

You read the news today, oh boy:  Belt HBP, broken thumb, says he's out six weeks.  He'll be DLed tomorrow.  He's one of our leading hitters with .815 OPS and team lead in homers.

2014 Arbitration Cases: 3 Down, 2 to Go

As reported by the various local reporters, the Giants were able to avoid arbitration with three of the five players eligible for arbitration.  They reportedly signed Gregor Blanco for $2.525M, Tony Abreu for $745K and Yusmeiro Petit for $845K.  Blanco reportedly twittered that he was thankful that the Giants kept him around for another year and hope that it is not the last.  He has one more year of arbitration.  Also, Petit's deal includes performance incentives.

The two who have not signed are Brandon Belt and Joaquin Arias.  MLBTradeRumors estimated that Belt would get $2.4M and Arias would get $1.2M.  Baggarly estimated $2-3M.  Belt is a super-two, and thus will have four arbitration years.  Haft reported that Belt filed for $3.6M while the Giants countered with $2.05M.  Meanwhile, Arias asked for $1.5M and the Giants offered $1.1M.

ogc thoughts

Not too surprised most were signed.  The Giants have an excellent record of signing players without having to meet with the arbitrator (only AJP did, but that was Colletti's fault for offering too low).  Their M.O. is usually meeting the player half-way between the two figures, so that means that Arias turned down $1.3M and Belt roughly $2.8M.

Was surprised that Arias did not sign.  Particularly since I felt that he had a bit of a down year.  Maybe he signs for $1.4M.

Belt, wow, he's asking for a lot, particularly for a Super Two.  TradeRumors usually takes into account past wins and circumstances.  Not sure where this will go.  Perhaps like Lincecum, $2.0M for 2014 and $3.5M for 2015, using the two figures as the guidance for the contract.  I'm still hoping the Giants sign Belt long-term this spring training, cover his four arbitration years and maybe get 1-2 of his free agent years, much like Bumgarner.

I will bet that both will sign before the scheduled arbitrator meeting. Arias should sign pretty soon, they should not be that far apart.  Belt will probably be a last minute thing given the difference.  Hopefully that springboards into an extension sooner than later.

2013 Giants: Arbitration Deadline Deals

As reported by Half/MLB.com and Pavlovic/Merc, the Giants have signed a number of players to deals in order to avoid arbitration.  The Giants under Sabean has worked assiduously to avoid arbitration, prefering to avoid the combative atmosphere that generally creates, with only A.J. the only one to go into arbitration (and he won, mainly because Colletti put the Giants offer way too low, not that I knew, but the media was reporting a much higher number than what the Giants offered and A.J. got his high number because it was closer to that media number.  From what I recall, AJ asked for $3.5, the Giants offered $2.25 and the media was quoting $3M range, but more under than over).

• Hunter Pence:  $13.8M, which is basically where he should be.  His prior arbitration amounts worked out to roughly low $17M market value (based on the 40%/60%/80% of market value rule of thumb that is used by many sabers).  This amount works out to $17.25M.  Media reports that there is not likely to be a long-term deal to be worked out in spring, and I can see why.  $17M is a lot to pay Hunter, frankly, the Astros screwed things up by giving him that much so it has stuck.  I can see the Giants letting him go into free agency where his offers will determine what his true market value is, and then swooping in to sign him to a long-term deal.  Given how much he seems to love it here, I can see him giving the team a final try to beat whatever offer comes his way.  I would be mildly surprised if he gets that much, but with so much new money coming into the league, it is hard to get shocked by any salary nowadays.
• Buster Posey:  $8M.  Not sure if there's ever a rule of thumb on a Super-Two.  I've used 30% before, and that would work out to a $26.667M market value, and if you used the 40%, you get $20M.  Looking at the two, roughly $25M works for me.  That's close to Howard's $10M that he got in arbitration (he did not work out a deal, so he asked for $10M and got it, while the Phillies offered $7M). 
• Jose Mijares:  $1.8M.  For a first timer, that works out to $4.5M, which seems fair for what he did in 2012.  That is right around but under what the Giants signed Affeldt, Lopez, and Casilla to.  
• Gregor Blanco:  $1.35M.  For a part-time starter, that's not too bad.  This values him at $3.25M, and if anything, I think that might be on the low side, as he did start a lot of games.  Still, that's not a sure thing in 2013, with Torres around and probably competition from Kieschnick and/or Peguero at minimum.  And he was up and down last season.

Still to be settled:  Sergio Romo and Joaquin Arias.  I don't know what the hangup with Arias is.  If I got my order right, Mijares was signed yesterday, Pence early this morning, then Blanco, then Posey, so it wasn't like they were working their way down the totem pole.  I imagine that he's asking for too much, if nothing is done today, then we should be able to see the offer and ask for figures and see what the spread is.  The Giants often settle somewhere in the mid-way point between the two figures.  I can't imagine he don't get signed before arbitration.

I have to think that Romo's side is asking for closer type money and the Giants are balking.  Though it could also be that they might be working on a deal to cover his two remaining arb seasons and go into his free agent years, much like Casilla.  His arb salary last season placed his market value at $3.9M.   Assuming he values himself closer to a Brandon League $7.5M deal, for a quasi closer, that works out to a $4.5M salary for 2013.  Maybe we can get him signed to a deal close to but above Casilla's 3 year, $15M deal, like $16.5M, extra half mil per season.

I have been wanting to see the Giants sign Posey to a long term deal and the media reports that the Giants are trying to get a deal done.  At $25M per, that works out to $10M in 2014, $15M in 2015, $20M in 2016 (total of $45M).  Assuming some discount for giving him guaranteed money now, versus risking that he get injured and not earn any of these amounts, maybe $9M in 2014, $12M in 2015, $15M in 2016, $20M in 2017 plus mutual option year for 2018.  That works out to a $56M deal.  Throw in a $4M buyout of the 2018 option, that works out to 4 year deal with option for $60M.  Add another year for $20M, that is a 5 year deal for $80M.  Both seems fair to me, given 2011.  I would lean more towards a longer contract than shorter with him.  I view him as our Jeter, someone to keep here for his career.

Risk Mitigation: Giants Style

There is a good quote of Bobby Evans by Chris Haft on mlb.com/sfgiants.com:

 "The work's never done. There are too many ways to try to find ways to protect your team over a long season." -- Evans

ogc thoughts

That has been one of the things I've been harping on the past few years about Sabean and the Giants, about how they practice risk mitigation.  In Sabean's interviews, you would hear the terms "flexibility" or "versatility" but Evans' quote comes closest to what I've been saying, about finding "ways to protect your team over a long season."  That is risk mitigation.

The signings of Uribe and DeRosa and, heck, back to the trade for Winn, represents the first strong signs of doing that, during that period.  After all the issues with Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, the Giants have focused more of their free agent signings on the lower tiers on risk mitigation, that is, the flexibility to not have a season go to pot from a starter going down.

Of course, there is really nothing you can do if one of your star hitters like Posey or Sandoval, go down.  But for the rest of the team, if you have a good infield utility player and one good outfield utility player, your team can stay afloat in the pennant race should somebody either go down or just is not performing on the field, like most teams run into with prospects.

DeRosa was the ultimate version of that, but I'll start with Winn first since he was one of those first flexible players.  He was and is a tweener, not really good enough defensively in CF but not really good enough offensively on the corners, but basically an average player no matter which OF position you put him at.  So, depending on who is hitting and who is not hitting or not available, Winn was able to play all three OF positions adequately to good, as well as hit adequately.  Roberts was a little like that too, only he was never healthy long enough to do that job for us.

DeRosa was never healthy enough, but he was the ultimate in utility when we got him.  He was really a platoon hitter, killed LHP, but did OK vs. RHP, good enough to play almost regularly, nearly 150 games per season.  However, he was great defensively at many positions, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and could play SS in a pinch (started out as a pro there) and could play 1B probably OK as well.  He would have been great for us if he had only gone to the expert to get his wrist fixed instead of being lazy and going to the local doctor, who screwed it up.

Last season, Theriot and Arias helped keep things on an even keel while Franchez was out and Sandoval was DLed, while Blanco did likewise in the OF, doing OK enough while starting.  On the previous World Champion team, Uribe and Torres did it for the Giants, even Renteria too, though he was originally hired to be the starting SS but was just injured all the time.

They did the same in the bullpen too.  Many Giants fans groaned over the signing of both Lopez and Affedlt to large (for bullpen) contracts prior to the 2012 season.  But they proved to be good backup once Wilson came up lame.  I didn't see any of these Naysayers apologizing when Affeldt flew through the 2012 playoffs with 10.1 IP, giving only 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 and allowing zero runs.  Lopez wasn't used as much, but he was helpful too, 3.0 IP, giving up 0 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4 and allowing no runs too.  Given that he only pitched in the two key series against Cincinnati and St. Louis (wasn't used in World Series), where a run could have tipped the series to the other side, that was critical pitching.  He helped win two of the games in the Reds series, and three of the games in the St. Louis series.

And both served as closers during the regular season as well.  In fact, who didn't serve?  Six different players recorded saves in 2012:  Casilla (25), Romo (14), Lopez (7), Affeldt (3), even Hensley (3), plus Wilson (1).    Pitchers were swapping in and out, pitching setup, pitching closer.  Also the middle relievers got to pitch setup as well.

And who is the ace of the rotation?  The season started out with Lincecum taking the pole position.  Cain got the home opener.  Bumgarner ended up opening the second half of the season after the All-Star game.   Cain got the first game of the NLDS.  Bumgarner got the first game of the NLCS.  And Zito got the World Series first start.  And while Vogelsong didn't get one of these ace first starts, he pitched like the ace of the playoffs, coming in and shutting down the opposition when the Giants were at the brink of losing.  He had only a 1.09 ERA in 4 starts, 24.2 IP, with 16 hits and 10 walks, striking out 21 and allowing only 3 runs.

And don't forget, Vogelsong was the guy who came up in 2011 and not only held the fort in Zito's absence, but proved to be ace-like in performance.  They also had Petit in 2012 and Hacker in 2010 and 2011 did well for us in AAA.  He just resigned with us, at age 30.  The Giants add these guys to hang around in the minors, just in case they were needed.

Blanco, Arias, Loux, Machi, Petit and Vogelsong started the season off in AAA, waiting for the call to the major leagues, insurance players that the Giants stashed in AAA, just in case a starter goes down.  That is risk mitigation.  And where would we have been if we did not have Theriot, who hit very well after returning from the DL, around .340 OBP, in the two spot, until Scutaro came over, capable of playing 2B and SS, and manning 3B until Sandoval returned, then took over the starting 2B spot and never let go.

Risk mitigation, as the Giants and Sabean has done it, is by having versatile utility players who were comfortable serving many different roles on the team, as the need arose.  Need a starting 2B?  Bam!  Theriot slotted in, and did well there until Scutaro was acquired and held the job.  Need a starting 3B?  Bam!  Arias started there, then Scutaro later.  Need a closer?  Bam!  Casilla, then closer by committee (Romo, Lopez, Affeldt), then Romo in the playoffs.  The Giants have been playing the risk mitigation game well over the past four seasons.

2013 Giants Risk Mitigation

Bringing back the whole team, also, the same players look to fill the risk mitigation roles.  Blanco looks like the LF right now, but should a Huff-like deal open up in LF just before spring training starts, don't be surprised if the Giants jump on a nice RH bat to platoon with Blanco or even start in LF.  And Torres is currently on the market.  Francisco Peguero also looks like he could fill the Blanco role in 2013, he plays all three OF positions, looks like he can hit anywhere (like Pablo), has great speed and defense, and even has a RH bat.

The scuttlebutt is that Ryan Theriot is interested in returning and the Giants are interested in him returning as well.  Meanwhile, we still have Joaquin Arias sitting around, ready to fill in, and Nick Noonan has been prepared the last few years for such a role, having started at both 2B and SS in his climb up the farm system.  He also played some 3B as well and probably could handle 1B in a pinch if necessary.

Of course, the bullpen is pretty set, with Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, Kontos, and Mijares.  We have the same closer by committee set up for 2013, as the Giants are said to be looking to manage Romo's arm to survive the season and be ready for the playoffs.  The key here was the signing of Affeldt to another contract.

The Giants generally likes to let one position be open for competition, so that 7th spot could be where the compete is in 2013, though rumors has it that they were in on Grilli until he chose to return to the Pirates for two years, since nobody would go three years on him.  He has had a Vogelsong-like resurrection, though he was never as buried or unused as Vogie.  Still, if they were looking hard at Grilli, they might still pick up someone along the way and make Mijares' position the competition spot.  Heath Hembree looks like he will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, and as our future closer du jour, if he should make the team, he could be seeing duty from the middle to set-up to closing, depending on how well he does.

And AAA will be full of potential starter replacements.  Hacker has signed to return.  In addition, Eric Surkamp should be healthy and starting in AAA.  In addition, both Chris Heston and Mike Kickham look like they earned a promotion to AAA with their great pitching in AA in 2012.  So there is a whole rotation full of starters who could get the call.  And I'm not even sure whether Petit might return, he was good last season too.  And don't forget, they could also come up as relievers too.

Your 2013 Giants: Five Added to 40-Man Roster

Sorry, but things have been busy, here is the latest news on the Giants 40-man roster additions, as reported by sfgiants.com.  Five players have been added to the 40-man roster, after a lot of space was cleared out within a week of the glorious 2012 season that was the San Francisco Giants second World Championship in three years, including the release of RHP reliever Hensley and the sending of Burriss to AAA.  Even with the addition of these five players, there is still five more open spots in the 40-man roster, indicating that the Giants are hoping to add a number of free agents to the roster during the off-season.

• RHP Jake Dunning:  24 YO Dunning is a reliever, a little old for the EL in 2012 season at 23, but not that old either.  His 4.10 ERA was not that special, but he had a 2.41 K/BB ratio, which is good, and a low 2.9 BB/9, but not really that great for AA if he hopes to make the majors at some point.  He should get promoted to AAA but needs to do more if he wants to make the majors.
• LHP Edwin Escobar:  20 YO Escobar started 22 games and had a nice 2.96 ERA in the Sally League.  He had a stellar 3.81 K/BB ratio, with a superb 2.2 BB/9, but his 8.4 K/9, while good for the league, is not all that special if he wants to make the majors, though it should be noted that most of the hitters had 2 more years of experience over him and thus as he catches up in age to the competition, he should see improvement.  And at 20, he's got a lot of time to develop as he rises through the minors.
• RHP Chris Heston:  24 YO Heston is one of those prospects who will need to prove it at every level he rises to.  And he certainly did in AA, 2.24 ERA in 25 starts, 3.38 K/BB ratio, good 2.4 BB/9 and OK 8.2 K/9, and stellar 0.1 HR/9, as his over 50% GB% rate over his career:  60% in Rookie in 2009, 57% in Augusta in 2010, 58% in San Jose in 2011, and 53% in Richmond in 2012.  The large dip in AA in 2012 suggests that he's started to lose his advantage over the hitters already, so 2013 will be a big test for him when he gets to tackle AAA and see if he can adjust to the higher level of competition.
• MI Nick Noonan:  23 YO Noonan has been my pet favorite for a number of years now.  After his stellar second half in San Jose a few years back, where he showed a lot of batting skills, being able to reduce his strikeout rate a lot while also getting more walks than strikeouts for about half the season, I hew to the Baseball Forecaster truism that once a hitter shows a skill, he owns it, then it becomes a matter of showing that skill again consistently.  He has not done it for a couple of years after that, but he showed marked improvement in 2012, though part of that appears due to a high BABIP that is similar to what he put up when he first turned pro, but not even close compared to his numbers the past three seasons.  
• OF Juan Perez:  26 YO Perez was too old to be a valid prospect in AA in 2012, but he showed some improvement in his batting discipline, cutting down on his strikeouts in 2012 vs. 2011 and before, and his contact rate, while not quite there yet (that is >= 85%) was very close at 82.4%, and I think that is the main reason he got added.  His batting line was a nice .302/.341/.441/.782, but as you can see, he don't get many walks, so he will need to hit and well if he hopes to stick in the majors.  Improving his contact rate a bit more would help him get there, that plus his power to go with good enough speed that helps him steal bases (but his technique is sadly lacking, as his CS is very high).

These players were added in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft process, which will be conducted on December 6th at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.

ogc thoughts

Obviously, with so many spots still open on the 40 man roster, the Giants appear to be hoping to add Scutaro and Pagan, though the latter appears to be slipping away, both because of years and salary, and because the Giants already have Gregor Blanco as a viable CF candidate.  The Giants are clearly intending for Gary Brown to be their future CF, and a long term contract with Pagan could mean that he could be pushed to LF at some point once Brown is ready.   Brown should start 2013 in AAA and could be ready to come up sometime in the 2013-14 seasons time frame.  And at the money he appears to be rumored to be getting, the only way he can produce such value is if he played CF.

Meanwhile, as DrB elaborated nicely on at his blog and which I've touched on in my comments here and there,  Blanco gives the Giants a lot of flexibility in terms of whatever moves they make regarding the outfield for the 2013 season.  Him plus that both Kieschnick and Peguero appear to be ready to compete for either a starting OF spot, or more likely, a utility OF spot, and perhaps two spots if Blanco is starting CF and the Giants sign a LF who can replace Pagan's hitting.  Thus, Pagan is nice to have but not as much of a necessity as re-signing Scutaro.

Though Scutaro is also not as necessary to get either if the Giants can retain Ryan Theriot.  I assume Theriot is hoping to land a starting spot somewhere but if not, the Giants will welcome him back to the bench as MI utility.  But if nobody was offering last off-season, I don't really see anyone doing that this off-season either.  Though even he is not necessary, as Joaquin Arias looks like he is a good utility MI, and Nick Noonan looks like he has been groomed to take on a utility MI role, like Burriss was, by getting a lot of starts in the minors at 2B and SS.

If the 25 man roster were to be selected today, here is the ones I would think would be chosen:

• Starters:  Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito
• Relievers:  Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Kontos, Mijares, and Runzler/Otero
• Starting Position:  Posey, Belt, Arias, Sandoval, Crawford, Kieschnick, Blanco, Pence
• Bench:  Sanchez, Arias, Gillaspie, Pill, Peguero

I think the relievers are pretty set but that some vets will be invited to compete for the final reliever spot with Runzler and Otero who are most likely to contend from the 40 man.  Machi will be in the mix as well, and I think that this is probably Heath Hembree's to lose, though I would not count out Brett Bochy either, as a dark horse candidate.  I would put Jacob Dunnington in the mix as well.

The Giants clearly need upgrades at 2B and LF/CF (since Blanco could play either) and will likely sign a vet to start at both positions.  The bench also needs upgrades over Gillaspie (as we need another utility MI) and Pill.  Peguero, after his nice showing last September, look ready to take a spot as a 4th OF, though another year of seasoning in AAA would not hurt either, so expect veteran OF's to be invited to camp, probably including a $1-3M veteran free agent at some point.

However, I would note from past observations that the Giants like to keep a spot open for prospects who appear like they might be ready to compete for a starting spot, so I expect LF to be kept open, with Blanco either starting in CF or, if a vet CF is signed, be the lead competitor for the LF starting spot, in competition with Kieschnick, Peguero, and probably at least one vet OF (Nady?).

Overall, the Giants look in pretty good shape for a good run at defending their title in 2013.  I'm very happy with where they are right now, though I would have preferred that Scutaro been signed by now, as every day he is not signed, is a sign that other teams are showing him enough interest to lure him away.   I think Arias is doable starting at 2B for us for the first half, with possible upgrade mid-season from Noonan or another mid-season trade for an MI.  I would love to have Theriot here again as main utility MI and starting 2B placeholder until mid-season if necessary.  I am fine with Blanco in CF and leading off, he's had an above average OBP for much of career and that is the most important thing to look for out of leadoff, plus he has great defensive skills and great speed as well.

Your 2012 Giants are 66-55: Downward Dog Position

I haven't done this in a long while, but Richard from Canada mentioned his wish for my daily notes at another site.  I assume he meant the post I used to do covering each series, which I'm doing here.  I can't promise to do this consistently for the rest of the season but for the D-gers series, I can man up for it.

Huff Decision: Who Leaves the 25 Man Roster?

With Huff able to leave the DL today, the Giants now have to make a decision on when to bring him back to the team.  Most of the public talk so far centers on Huff returning today, but not that long ago, they were sure he was going to be going on a rehab assignment in order to get his bat back into shape since he's been out for 2 weeks (though I would note that while he has not been in game situations, he has been spotted taking batting practice with the team during his time on the DL).  What had interested me was:  who gets voted off the 25-man roster to make space for Huff?

When the Sandoval Hits the Fan, Who You Gonna Call? Gillaspie!

Ooof!  Disaster in Giants Fanatic Land as Pablo Sandoval suffers a very serious injury to his left hand, apparently after swinging his bat during the game, but there appears to be some lack of clarity of what exactly happened and when.  More news today.  More panic until Pablo returns to the lineup.

Not really what we need right now, losing one of our best hitters overall and best hitters with RISP.  He is third in OPS right now, behind Schierholtz and Arias, and only Blanco is among the good hitters with RISP so far, the rest are below .725.

So basically, we just lost the only regular who is hitting with RISP, while we are in the midst of another season of poor hitting with RISP.

Our main saving point so far this season is that with the team more contact oriented, with the much lower strikeout rate, we have been having a lot more baserunners, leading to more RISP opportunities, so that even though the hitters are still doing this poorly, the team has been scoring more runs this season than last:  the team has scored 4 runs or more in 15 of 24 games, or 15-9 record as reported in my side panel (which apparently local media is now using in their reporting, just saw Baggarly note my pitchers stats on allowing 3 runs or less, plus recently I ranted about how many in the media are using my offense scoring 4 runs stat but not giving me any credit, even once; hey, I'm only human, give me a shout out, even a small mention, I like getting credit where credit is due).  Meaning, if the team's defense - pitching and fielding - had been doing their job (keeping scoring 3 runs or less), we would have a better record, closer to that 15-9 instead of the current 12-12.