- Round 1.18: RHP Phil Bickford (21; 27; 42)
- Round 1.31: 1B Chris Shaw (46; 45; 51)
- Round 2.61: LHP Andrew Suarez (75; 73; 85)
- Round 3.95: SS Jalen Miller (41; 35; 54)
- Round 4.126: LHP Mac Marshall (118; 86; 146)
- Round 5.156: CF Ronnie Jebavy (NR; 208; NR)
- Round 6.186: CF Steven Duggar (123; 167; 158)
- Round 7.216: 3B Jose Vizcaino Jr. (NR; 214; 238)
- Round 8.246: RHP Cory Taylor (NR; NR; NR)
- Round 9.276: RHP David Graybill (NR; 446; NR)
- Round 10.306: RHP Tyler Cyr (NR; NR; NR)
I really like the Bickford pick, and am OK with the Shaw pick. We don't need a power 1B (even if Belt is gone, right now, 1B appears to be Posey's long term position once he is ready to stop catching), but he is a really nice power hitter, and if he can continue to develop as a hitter, who knows, maybe he can handle being a LF, even though he has no speed at all, if the Giants play a far ranging CF next to him. Meanwhile, there were a number of interesting pitchers still available when he was selected. But the odds are so low here (and really for most picks), it is more a matter of preference than any real objection, if it comes to that.
Andrew Suarez (MLB.com):
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45
Suarez has been a well-regarded prospect since high school and has twice been drafted in the top 10 rounds, including last year when the Nationals selected him 57th overall as a redshirt sophomore. Instead of signing, he opted to return to Miami and is once again an integral part of the Hurricanes weekend rotation.
Suarez throws his fastball in the low 90s, topping out at 95 mph. His changeup, slider and curveball all have the potential to be at least average offerings. He works around the strike zone with his whole arsenal and demonstrates a good feel for his craft.
While Suarez has tantalizing stuff, there are some questions about his durability because of his injury history and small frame. Labrum surgery sidelined him for his whole freshman season, and he missed time this spring due to an oblique strain. If he can stay healthy, however, he has the tools to become a big league starter.Andrew Suarez (Garrioch):
Andrew Suarez was taken 57th overall last year as a lefty that sits in the low 90's with an average slider and change. He isn't dominant but is a safe bet to be a back of the rotation arm or at least a lefty out of the pen in the bigs. The fact that he is now a senior with zero leverage could allow him to go as early as the comp round but could slide to the 4th round just as easily since he has never shown an out pitch.ogc: Sounds like a pitcher, versus a thrower, which the Giants love. They also love tantalizing stuff. Plus, anytime you got a LHP throwing 95 MPH, you need to drool a little. Typical of Barr picks, he was a well-regarded prospect since high school. Health worry, but presumably the Giants training/medical staff OKed this.
Jalen Miller (MLB.com):
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
Alonzo Jones began 2015 as the top-rated middle-infield prospect among Georgia high schoolers, but Miller has surpassed him this spring. While Jones has superior speed, Miller has a more trustworthy bat and a much better chance of remaining in the infield in pro ball.
He's built like Brandon Phillips was when Phillips was a Georgia prepster drafted in the second round, and Miller should go in the same area this year. He projects as a similar offensive player to Phillips too. Miller has an efficient right-handed swing and though he's not big, he could generate 15-homer power thanks to his strong wrists.
A Clemson recruit, Miller exhibits good instincts in all phases of the game. His quickness, hands and arm get the job done at shortstop but may be better suited for second base at the next level.Jalen Miller (Garrioch):
Jalen Miller is one of the better high school short stops who is likely to stay there. He lacks the bat that other highly rated prep short stops have. Comparing him to past defense first short stops, like Oscar Mercado, I prefer Miller's bat but Mercado's defense. I don't see him too much differently than Richie Martin on the college side, just less proven. He has smooth actions and good hands. He may develop into an excellent hitter or he may not. That will show his ultimate value as defensively, he will be an asset. It just depneds if he'll be a top prospect or a future utility type. If he doesn't sign, he is comited to Clemson.Jalen Miller (MLB.com afterdraft)
Miller was ranked 41st on MLB.com's list of the Draft's top prospects. At 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds, Miller has been compared to Cincinnati second baseman Brandon Phillips, which partly accounts for talk that he may switch to the right side of the infield as a pro.
Then again, there's no guarantee that the Giants will be able to sign Miller. The Sandy Springs, Ga., resident has a scholarship to Clemson awaiting him.ogc: I would LOVE to get a Brandon Phillips type. He fell to us, so he might not want to sign for less, but the slot of $598K would be hard to pass up. Looks like defensively he can stick in the middle, and he may or may not prove to be a hitter. But 15-homer power would be pretty good up the middle. And the Giants love players with good instincts, they seem to gravitate to such prospects, like Noonan, Panik. Speaking of which, seems like Panik would be a good comp, with the same issues and worries, except that he appears to have more power, relative to what the experts were thinking when Panik was drafted, though now Panik looks like he will have that much power.
Mac Marshall (MLB.com):
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
One of the better Draft prospects a year ago out of Georgia high school powerhouse Parkview, Marshall was drafted in the 21st round by the Astros. Many thought Houston would make a serious run at signing the southpaw, but he instead headed to LSU. Marshall changed course in September, leaving LSU for Chipola Junior College, making him Draft eligible again this year.
In many ways, Marshall looked the same as he did a year ago, with the chance to have a solid three-pitch mix and the ability to command them. His fastball sits in the 90-92 range and he'll occasionally touch a tick or two higher, but he hasn't added much velocity since 2014. He does have a very good changeup with good fade. He continues to work on improving his breaking ball, a curveball that shows glimpses, but is still inconsistent.
A broken hand kept him out of action for about a month, but he returned to the hill in late April. An elbow nerve issue forced him out of a late start, but he was throwing for scouts in late May to show teams he's healthy. If he can do that, his profile as an athletic lefty who knows how to pitch will interest many organizations during the Draft.Mac Marshall (Garrioch):
Shows flashes of three plus pitches. Velo needs to tick up for that but commands change and breaking ball well. Mid-rotation type with more upside.Mac Marshall (MLB.com after draft)
Marshall said that he closely follows Cubs left-hander Jon Lester, and not just because they're fellow Georgians (Marshall resides in Lilburn, about a half-hour west of Atlanta). Ranked 118th on MLB.com's Top 200 Draft prospects list, Marshall believes that he can thrive as Lester has done by alternating a fastball that reaches 95 mph with a changeup that darts away from right-handed batters.ogc: This is pretty good value back in the 4th round, perhaps the Giants can help him hone and make consistent the three plus pitches, with his changeup the best. He's another JC guy like Bickford, changing schools in order to be draft eligible in this draft. Has 44 K's in only 30.1 IP, versus 13 walks ( a bit high on the walks, but OK because of all the strikeouts, over 3x K/BB ratio). And the Giants love athletic players.
In addition, in an interview, Marshall said that signing is not a problem (Bickford said similarly; both were drafted before and turned down prior offers), that he's ready to start his career, after a bit of controversy last season with the Astro's bungling of the Aiken's situation, affecting both Nix and Marshall, apparently. Apparently his season was limited because of a freak injury to his thumb, breaking his bone. His coach noted that had he not been injured, he probably would have been drafted in the first two rounds. But with that Astros snafu and the broken thumb, that is probably why he says that he feels "very blessed to be drafted by the Giants." He still gets nearly $444K, assuming he signs for slot. I don't see why that don't happen quickly and he moves into the system quickly, particularly since he's healthy now and didn't pitch much this season.
Ronnie Jevaby (MLB.com after-draft)
The 6-foot-2, 184-pound junior put together an outstanding season, leading the team in batting average (.359), hits (88), total bases (130), on-base percentage (.408), stolen bases (24), doubles (15) and triples (three) en route to winning the Conference USA Newcomer of the Year Award.ogc: Again, Giants like award winners. And those are great stats for a lead-off type hitter. Looks like a typical Barr find, a player who is leading his team in a lot of offensive stats.
Ronnie Jebavy was minimally scouted and ranked (BA has him 208, not far from his 156 selection, but Garrioch did not include him in his Top 400 ranking) so I don't have much information on him.
Round 5 would be pretty early to save some bonus money, so I doubt they will try to save much bonus here. But $332,300 is a pretty large bonus to give to someone who was not rated very highly and 208th gets roughly $200K slot bonus, so the Giants might try to get some minimal savings here.
Steven Duggar (MLB.com):
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
Though Duggar had arguably the best all-around tools in the Cape Cod League last summer, he never really has lived up to them in three years at Clemson. A team that believe he can fulfill his untapped potential at the plate could select him as high as the second round.
Duggar has the bat speed and strength to hit for power and drives the ball during batting practice, but he doesn't during games. There's a lot going on in his left-handed swing and he's susceptible to breaking balls. While he has a knack for drawing walks, he also gets too passive at times and strikes out too often.
A well above-average runner, Duggar has the speed to steal bases and cover ground in the outfield. He has played mostly right field for the Tigers and his strong arm is an asset there, though he'll probably move to center field as a pro. How much his bat develops will determine whether his future is as an everyday player or an extra outfielder.Steven Duggar (MLB.com after draft)
Duggar hit .304 (69-for-227) with five home runs, 43 RBIs and 10 stolen bases this year. A native of Moore, S.C., Duggar was named to the Third-Team All-ACC and the ACC All-Academic team in both 2015 and '14. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound outfielder played for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League in 2014, where he hit .323 with 35 runs, seven doubles, 13 RBIs and 15 steals in 46 games. He was selected to the Cape Cod League All-Star Game and earned all-league honors.
ogc: Another Cape Cod standout, the Giants love them Cape Codders, as well as honors and awards. Could be a find according to this description, the Giants drafted him in the 6th round, similar to how the Giants picked up Osich, who was first round talent, in the 6th round too (he fell due to being injured as well as an injury history. Giants often work with hitters to get them to be more aggressive swinging at strikes in his wheelhouse early in the count, instead of taking so many pitches for strikes, that was an issue with Bocock, just taking pitches, but then the MLB pitchers caught on, and then he was striking out all the time. Sounds like Duggar has the raw materials, much like the Giants thought that Belt had the raw materials, then worked with him on his mechanics. He also has speed (wow, 70 speed) to help him in CF as well as steal bases. Unfortunately, he looks like another Gary Brown, he has a lot of CS on the back of his baseball card. A strong arm would help with him playing CF for the Giants.
Jose Vizcaino, Jr (Garrioch):
Jose Vizcaino has a high waisted, athletic build and looks more like a 3B or even corner outfielder than a SS. I would bet he's move to the hot corner right after he's signed, if he signs. He has a strong arm, quick release and good hands. He has been a bit under the radar for me as I have never seen a Santa Clara game, just some video. He has hit well in limited action this year and there is potential for him to be a big leaguer. His Dad was Jose Vizcaino, the 18 year big leaguer.Jose Vizcaino, Jr (MLB.com after draft)
The 6-foot-2, 218-pound infielder was named College Sports Madness All-West Coast Conference Player of the Year, as well as WCC Rawlings Player of the Week three times in 2015. He also made First Team All-West Coast Conference for the second year in a row. He was previously selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 36th round of the 2012 Draft, but he chose not to sign.ogc: Son of the former Giants player we picked up in the infamous Matt Williams trade. His slotted bonus is $186,600, and that is roughly what he should expect, maybe a little high, based on the rankings. Another award winner and honoree.
Cory Taylor (MLB.com after draft)
As a junior, the 6-foot-2, 252-pound hurler went 6-1 with a 3.93 ERA. Taylor threw his first career complete game on May 31 in the Patriots' NCAA regional elimination game. He allowed one run on three hits with a season-best nine strikeouts in Dallas Baptist's 8-1 victory over Texas. In 2014, the Owasso, Okla., native ranked 25th in the nation in strikeouts per nine innings with 9.84, which also ranked as the third-best all-time in Dallas Baptist history.ogc: Again, Barr loves national leaders, Taylor ranked 25th in K/9. And he stepped up in the elimination game. Nice pick in the high single digits rounds.
David Graybill (MLB.com):
Graybill has been drafted twice, and both times he elected to return to school. The 6-foot-4, 255-pounder was picked by the Dodgers in the 31st round of the 2012 Draft and again by the Yankees in the 32nd round a year ago. He returned to Arizona State University and made his first pitching appearance this year on March 22. Graybill went on to appear in nine games, including two starts, while recording a 4.32 ERA, nine strikeouts and nine walks in 8 1/3 innings. The Phoenix native pitched one inning in the Collegiate Baseball Classic against the D-backs on March 3.ogc: He was drafted way before any of his rankings. BA ranked him 446th (he was pick 276) and Garrioch didn't think enough of him to place him on his Top 400 list. Perhaps the Giants can get some bonus savings here, based on this, but in the past, the Giants tend to pay slot or near slot to even the guys who were huge overdrafts based on industry rankings. Still, he barely pitched, getting into only nine games, two starts, only 8.1 IP, giving the Giants some leverage in offering less bonus money, should they wish to do that.
Tyler Cyr (MLB.com after draft)
The 6-foot-3, 210-pound pitcher went 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 17 appearances (15 starts) this year. He held opponents to a .213 (68-for-319) batting average while earning second-team All-Sun Conference honors. A native of Fremont, Calif., Cyr attended Skyline College in 2013 and struck out 31 batters in 35 innings.ogc: Barr and the Giants love strikeout artists, and it was nice that he held opponents down so low. But as a senior in college, he has an experience advantage going for him as well.
Other Thoughts
Jalen Miller is the only high school player, which is typical, the Giants generally draft college players, though this time they also selected two junior college players. Perhaps some of the extra money will to go sign him. He was ranked 35-54, so that would put his ranking bonus roughly $1.0-1.5M. Giants generally sign everyone they draft in the first ten rounds.
Tyler Cyr is the only senior college player selected, and his pick is slotted for $149,700. Assuming they are doing this to free up bonus money to sign someone else, this should free up an additional $140K, roughly. With the 5% max before penalties that they have been going up against most years now, together that is roughly $515K available to distribute to prep prospects who had fallen due to signability issues, the Giants lately have been drafting these players with their picks in the 30+ rounds, just in case they free up enough money to sign one of them. Could be used for Miller as well.
In addition, both Cory Taylor and David Graybill were not very highly ranked (or ranked at all), so the Giants could be thinking of offering them less, in order to free up more bonus money as well.
The draft is always a bit of a crapshoot. The giants are consistently berated for having a poor minor league system yet look at the recent production of Panik, Duffy, and Crawford, 3 shortstops fielding in the infield at third, second and short, Belt at first, and Posey catching. Our pitching and infield picks have worked out. Our outfield picks not so much, but a few trades, free agent signings and minor league contract pick ups and the giants have been winners for quite some time now. I know nobody doubts this, but we constantly see how low the giants minor league system is rated.
ReplyDeleteYes, it is, that is why I named my draft study with that (link on the side).
DeleteAnd I totally agree that the Giants both are consistently berated and minor leagues are poorly rated, the experts have rarely been kind, except when they had Buster and Bumgarner in the minors still.
And even when the Giants were right in picking the players, like Belt, they get berated for handling them wrong, when these people did not even think much of Belt in the first place, it was only the Giants skill in bringing out his true talents that got them to finally notice Belt.
Yes, pitching and infield has worked out well. That is because the Giants have focused on mainly three positions using their picks in the first few rounds, their best draft bullets available: pitching, pitching, and more pitching, plus SS and C.
That is a major reason they have not been able to develop any OF yet, because they spent their best early draft bullets on positions of greater skill specialization and physical skills.
That is the last threshold for Sabean Naysayers, "Oh, but he don't know how to develop OF," now that he has proven, 1) he can develop pitchers, 2) he can develop hitting catchers, 3) he can develop hitting MI, and 4) he can develop hitting corner IF.
The fact is, no team develops totally within. All teams are made up of home-grown (draft and IFA), trades, expensive free agents, cheap free agents, and free minor leaguers.
But find me teams which has as many homegrown players as the Giants have had during this glory era, especially since 2012. Posey, Belt, Panik, Duffy, Sandoval, Crawford, Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, Heston, Sanchez, Romo, Wilson, plus Susac, Hanchez, Perez, Adrianza, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, players who have contributed significantly to the three championships (OK, Adrianza is a push). Plus, many are pushing to come up, Okert, Blach, Beede, Law, Hall, Black, Williamson.
Personally, I would count players who were signed to minor league contracts, Casilla, Torres, Vogelsong, Petit, Broadway, or picked up on waivers, Strickland. There were probably some good reasons their old team let them go, but then the Giants took them, trained them, and got something out of them.
And the rankings are flawed. If a prospect comes up fast and is hardly in the minor system while considered good, like Lincecum (barely there!), Posey, Bumgarner, Belt, Crawford, Duffy, there is less of an affect on the team's ranking, than if the prospect struggles some coming up the system, like a Homer Bailey, so he's part of the farm system, he's a great prospect so their system gets ranked higher, but because he is taking longer to reach his potential, unlike the above Giants, the system gets "rated" higher than if the player jumps to the majors almost immediately, like Timmy (less than a year) or Bumgarner (2-3 years later). And because the Giants have focused on college prospects, they are influencing the farm system ranking for a short time, unlike 18 YO who take years to climb the system, he could boost the system for 4 years.
Plus, when a team is winning, the deck is stacked against us to find a good player, plus, the team only needs strong complementary players, the stars, while nice, is not
(ooops) as necessary once you get a core group of guys like Posey, Belt, and Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum. Then you look for complementary players who can cheaply man a starting position, allowing you to afford to pay your core guys at some point. Crawford and Panik (and now Duffy, Susac, and Heston) are not core parts of a championship team, but they are great complementary players, and some (Crawford and Panik are looking to break in, Heston and Strickland too) become core parts of the team.
DeleteArticle on Jebavy: http://www.murfreesboropost.com/mtsus-jebavy-drafted-in-fifth-round-by-giants-cms-42237
ReplyDeleteJebavy said he will fly to San Francisco for a physical either Wednesday or Thursday. He indicated his plans are to sign with the Giants and forego his final year of eligibility at Middle Tennessee.
"I plan to fly out and take my physical and everything is good I expect to sign the papers and start playing short season and see what happens from there," Jebavy said. "This is such an honor and I'm very humbled.
Jebavy, whose brother Ryan Stephens played at Middle Tennessee and is the Colorado Rockies organization, was the Conference USA Newcomer of the Year after transferring from Columbia State. He was also a first-team All C-USA selection after leading the Blue Raiders in batting average (.359), on-base percentage (.407), hits (88) and stolen bases (24) as a junior. He led C-USA in hits and stolen bases were second in the league in batting average.
"It's one of the best single seasons of any of the all-time greats we have had," McGuire said. "Some of it goes unseen because of all of the defensive plays that he made and what he brought to the table defensively, and then the disruption he causes on the bases. Stats don't measure all of those things."
Article on Giants draft: http://m.giants.mlb.com/news/article/129888796/giants-see-big-league-potential-in-draft-haul
ReplyDeleteHas some John Barr comments, usual stuff, but still:
Possessing three of the first 61 picks due to losing third baseman Pablo Sandoval to Boston in free agency, the Giants used that windfall to take Bickford, a hard thrower; Boston College first baseman Chris Shaw, regarded as one of the few Draft-eligible players with legitimate power; and University of Miami left-hander Andrew Suarez, who has been likened to 20-game winner Gio Gonzalez.
Barr insisted the Giants didn't reach this combination by design. They simply took the best players available when their turn arrived in each of the 40 rounds. For example, the Giants' current pitching rotation could be regarded as aging, with only Madison Bumgarner and Heston younger than 30. But Barr indicated the preponderance of pitchers the Giants drafted had nothing to do with what's happening at the big league level.
"You can't draft out of need," Barr said. "You have to draft with the best pool of players the Draft can give you."
Barr credited San Francisco's scouts for following many of the organization's selections essentially since last year's Draft. Foul weather throughout much of the country, Barr said, wiped out significant portions of many interscholastic playing schedules, forcing scouts to place greater emphasis on summer league performances. As an example, Barr mentioned Shaw, who excelled in the highly competitive Cape Cod League last year.
Article on Avila-Leeper: http://m.giants.mlb.com/news/article/129855008/
ReplyDeleteHe wants to start his career now, so he's the third I can recall publicly stating that he will sign with the Giants, pretty much no question, joining Bickford and Jebavy. And presumably Cyr and all the other college seniors.
Oh, here is the complete list of Giants draftees, if you want to peruse: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2015/drafttracker.jsp#ft=team&fv=sfn
In addition, have to add this, Shankbone has a great rundown on his analysis and thoughts of the Giants draft at his blog: http://www.yougottalikethesekids.com/2015/06/giants-2015-draft-by-numbers.html
In particular, he showed the significance of Shaw, and pointed out guys like Hinojosa and Jebavy.
Oh, and Shankbone provided this link to BA's top Cape Cod guys: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/cape-cod-league-top-30-prospects-2/
DeleteShaw and Bickford in there, also Hinojosa.
6. Phil Bickford, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (So., TBD)
Phil Bickford
The unsigned No. 10 overall pick by the Blue Jays in 2013, Bickford showed less explosive stuff during his freshman year for the Titans than he had as a high school senior, often pitching with an average fastball. He still went 6-3, 2.13 in 76 innings in the spring, then moved into a relief role this summer, causing his velocity to spike. He worked comfortably in the 93-96 range with late life, and he pounded the strike zone relentlessly with his fastball, though sometimes he tends to leave it up in the zone. Loose and athletic, he repeats his delivery but still needs to improve his secondary stuff. Working out of the bullpen, he mostly used his fastball and power curveball at 79-81 mph, which showed signs of becoming a plus pitch. He gets around the pitch at times, however, and needs to tighten it. Bickford decided not to return to Cal State Fullerton for his sophomore year so that he could enter the 2015 draft, either at a junior college or out of independent ball. If he can maintain his premium fastball in a starting role, he could be drafted in the top 10 picks again in 2015.
10. C.J Hinojosa, ss, Harwich (Jr., Texas)
C.J. Hinojosa (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
Hinojosa stood out for his sterling play at the College World Series and continued to impress scouts in the Cape. His best assets are his savvy and confidence, which make his tools play up. He has a mature frame and slightly below-average speed, but his instincts give him adequate range at short, where his arm is above-average. He reads pitchers well and is a heady baserunner. Hinojosa has some lift in his swing and offers fringy power to the pull side.
13. Chris Shaw, of/1b, Chatham (Jr., Boston College)
Chris Shaw (Courtesy of Boston College).
After swatting six homers and slugging .502 in a strong spring, the lefthanded-hitting Shaw led the Cape League with eight home runs and ranked second with 34 RBIs. As the centerpiece of a Chatham lineup loaded with lefthanded hitters, Shaw faced an endless parade of southpaws, and he gradually improved against them as the summer progressed, doing a better job staying closed and going the other way more often. He still has work to do with his approach, and some scouts aren’t convinced he can handle premium velocity, but he punishes mistakes and average fastballs. With a chiseled 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame, Shaw has plus or better power, and he will go as far as that tool carries him. He played first base as a freshman and right field this spring and summer, but he’s a poor runner and profiles best at first, though he has a solid arm.
And as a side note, the switch-pitcher, Ryan Perez was ranked in there. I was kind of hoping the Giants would select him, he's an oddity, of course, being able to switch, and you know how Bochy loves to get the platoon advantage, plus the Giants seem to think differently, a lot, so I was hoping.
I can still remember reading about a switch pitcher in my Scholastic Book when I was in elementary school, how he would switch to get platoon advantage, but then a switch-hitter came up, and they were switching back and forth, driving the ump crazy, so he forced the pitcher to pick, so the pitcher decided to throw one pitch one side, then the next pitch, the other side, alternating. Crazy stuff! But I hoped to see that happening for the Giants.
Here is an article on Hinojosa from his school's newspaper: http://www.dailytexanonline.com/2015/06/18/junior-shortstop-cj-hinojosa-will-forgo-senior-season-after-being-drafted-by-san
DeleteJust normal draftee interview stuff, but still interesting to read. It was another Giants stealth move, CJ had no idea that they were interested, the Blue Jays (them again!) were calling him all the time, every 1-2 hours, and letting him know that they were drafting him in the 12th round. Then the Giants popped him in the 11th round.
Another Cape Cod success story, another Giants draftee. In fact, in the link above, he was actually ranked above Chris Shaw by BA. They really love their Cape Cod stars.
They also love players who has "savvy and confidence, which make his tools play up." A lot of guys had that mentioned about him when the Giants drafted him, Panik, Noonan, Duffy, Arroyo, and now Hinojosa. The Giants clearly believe that this psychology gives the players a better chance of making it in the majors.
Forgot to include this article on Suarez: http://m.giants.mlb.com/news/article/129467492/giants-draft-miami-left-hander-andrew-suarez
ReplyDeleteSuarez, 22, was initially drafted in the ninth round by Toronto out of Christopher Columbus (Miami) High School but did not sign. Nor did he turn pro last year when Washington drafted him in the second round, 57th overall, as a redshirt sophomore.
• 18th overall: Phil Bickford
• 31st overall: Chris Shaw
Often compared to Washington left-hander Gio Gonzalez, Suarez was a third-team All-Atlantic Coast Conference selection for the second straight season. He's 9-1 with a 2.96 ERA for the Hurricanes, who are competing in the College World Series. In 79 innings this year, Suarez has struck out 74 and walked 19. He surged toward the end of the season, winning each of his final three starts and recording a 0.47 ERA.
Rated 75th among MLB.com's Draft prospects, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Suarez is said to possess an above-average assortment of offspeed pitches to complement a fastball that has reached 95 mph. He also has weathered injuries. Labrum surgery on his left shoulder sidelined him as a freshman at Miami. An oblique strain bothered him early this season.
The picture for the video reminded me of Lincecum throwing, with his leg flying like that, except, of course, that he's a lefty.
Short post on Jeff Burke, 32nd round pick:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-baseball/2015/6/10/8763311/2015-mlb-draft-san-francisco-giants-draft-rhp-jeff-burke-in-32nd-round
Website to track all signings and bonuses, if available: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/130246508/2015-draft-signing-and-bonus-tracker
ReplyDeleteSickels provided this comments on the draft: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/12/8770959/mlb-draft-2015-national-league-west-draft-analysis
ReplyDeleteCOMMENT: Bickford has one of the best fastballs in the draft and could be a dominator in pro ball too with a bit more refinement of the secondaries. The Giants seem like a good organization for him. Shaw’s power bat was one of the best home run sources available, while Hurricanes ace Andrew Suarez could reach the majors very quickly as a fourth starter type. Subsequent picks were diverse: Miller could have gone much sooner with his combination of tools and skills, Marshall could become a number three starter, and Jebavy showed power and speed in college (.359/.408/.531, 24 steals). Sixth round pick Steve Duggar (OF, Clemson) could be a fine fourth outfielder, while seventh round choice Jose Vizcaino Jr (3B, Santa Clara) has a potent power bat, being nothing like his father. Two college senior arms with long track records could reach the majors very quickly, Grant Watson out of UCLA (LHP, 16th round) and Ryan Halstead out of Indiana (RHP, 21st round).
All the Giants picks are available here: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2015/drafttracker.jsp#ft=team&fv=sfn
ReplyDeleteJebavy was highlighted on this Fangraph's analysis: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/potentially-valuable-hitters-taken-in-rounds-two-to-eight/
ReplyDeleteRonnie Jebavy CF, San Francisco Giants
Draft Round: 5th
KATOH Projection: 1.7 WAR
Brandon Sanger lead the C-USA in batting average, but Ronnie Jebavy was a close second with his .359/.408/.531 performance. Jebavy doesn’t hit for a ton of power, as evidenced by his sub-.200 ISO, but his 88 hits were tops in the C-USA. Jebavy is more than just a good hitter, but he also complements his offensive exploits with tremendous speed. His 24 steals were tops in his conference by a wide margin, and he’s also turned some heads with his defense. His highlight reel catches have made SportsCenter’s top 10 plays on multiple occasions. Here’s a look at one of those plays.
ogc note: Oddly enough, the KATOH hitters analysis only rated Shaw for 0.3 WAR, much less than Jebavy, even though Shaw was rated much higher than Jebavy, Shaw was viewed as a Top 50 prospect, whereas Jebavy was roughly 200-400+.
The more I think about Jebavy, he seems like a poor-man's Gary Brown, CF, great defense, great speed/SB, good hitter in this league, but apparently too many are not sure his hitting nor power will translate to the majors.
I asked a question there and got a reply:
Deleteobsessivegiantscompulsive says:
June 15, 2015 at 6:35 pm
Interesting post, really enjoyed it.
I noticed that you have Jebavy at 1.7 WAR. This is higher than a lot of the hitters (and pitchers) who were drafted in round 1, or that you covered of the top hitters using Kiley rank. Shaw, who the Giants drafted with their supplemental first rounder, had a KATOH WAR of 0.3. Suarez, who the Giants drafted in the second round, had a KATOH WAR of 0.2. Jebavy was drafted in the 5th round.
Yet, MLB.com did not rank him among their Top 200, Garrioch did not rank among his Top 400, and BA ranked him 208th on their Top 500 (roughly 6th rounder). So where is his WAR value coming from, which is so apparent to your system, and yet by most scouting influenced ranks, he’s basically a nobody?
I was excited to read what you wrote here, but this is the most positive account of him thus far. Sounds kind of like a poor man’s Gary Brown: CF who hit really well with power, has great speed, plays great defense. (unlike others, I still think Brown could be useful in the majors) I would love to hear what KATOH likes so much about him.
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Chris Mitchell says:
June 18, 2015 at 8:29 am
He hit really well compared to the rest of his conference his conference: A ton of hits, not a ton of strikeouts, a smattering of pop. It also helps that he stole so many bases. All of these things are predictive of MLB success.
Giants signed Shaw, which then enabled them to sign Miller: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/giants-to-sign-top-picks-chris-shaw-jalen-miller.html
ReplyDeleteShaw got $1.4M while Miller got $1.1M, which is in the range I noted above. The two slots together sums to $2.483, while they were signed to $2.5, so, assuming these are the exact bonus payments, the Giants are only $17K over slot with this signing.
Great signings thus far, especially Hinojosa and now Miller, will feel really good after Bickford and Marshall are signed.
Great interview by Roger with Jim Callis regarding the Giants draft: http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2015/6/16/8786961/post-draft-interview-with-jim-callis
ReplyDeleteHere's what he had to say about the Giants draft overall (read the link for his thought on all of the prospects drafted in the first ten rounds):
MCC: What's your overall assessment of what the Giants got done in this draft, assuming a decent spread of signage?
JC: It looks pretty good to me. They got four of the top 75 players on our MLBPipeline.com Top 200 with their first four picks, and as I mentioned, Marshall and Duggar could pay off nicely for where they were taken. I don't see an obvious post-10th-round talent, because I'm assuming Brendon Little went in the 36th round because he's not going to be signable.
Analysis of the Giants draft by Gobroks: http://www.drafttotheshow.com/2015-mlb-draft-review-san-francisco-giants-2/
ReplyDeleteAnalysis: In a draft that was thought to be light on elite talent, the Giants decided to focus heavily on the college ranks and take players who project to have high floors. Phil Bickford has a plus fastball, and while his secondary pitches and command are a work in progress, his arm strength should be able to carry him to a major league bullpen if he cannot make it work as a starter. Chris Shaw was one of my favorite bats in the draft and I think his broken hamate bone hurt his value. Andrew Suarez goes in the second round for the second consecutive year, and as a senior lefty with a good fastball/slider combination he should move quickly. Jalen Miller was the only player from the prep ranks that the Giants took in the first two days of the draft–he projects to be a glove first shortstop. Mac Marshall was the third player in the Astros/Brady Aiken situation from last year–he’s got a solid fastball/change up combo. Ronnie Jebavy is a very good defensive center fielder. Steven Duggar has good tools for a college player but hasn’t had them all click yet. The Giants have had success with these types of players in recent past with guys like Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, and Hunter Cole. Jose Vizcaino‘s father had 2 separate stints with the Giants so they probably feel good about his make up, though he’ll likely move to third base which puts more pressure on his bat. Cory Taylor, David Graybill, and Tyler Cyr are the typical relief arms the Giants fill up on during the second day of the draft. Graybill in particular is interesting because he has great arm strength but his command made it difficult for him to get a lot of innings in the tough Pac 12. During day three the Giants took some interesting college players in Texas shortstop CJ Hinojosa and UCLA left-handed pitcher Grant Watson. If the Giants have any leftover bonus money, they could take a run at a couple of late day three lefties Brendon Little and Hunter Bowling, but they are likely to end up on campus at North Carolina and Florida, respectively.
Final Thoughts: The Giants went heavy on college players and it should produce a number of major leaguers. They did take some college players that have some upside though, so how the draft looks in five years will likely depend on whether or not Bickford and Marshall can remain starters, how Shaw recovers from his broken hamate bone, and if Duggar and Hinojosa can actualize their tools into performance.
https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/610941574453792768
ReplyDelete#11 Hinojosa signs overslot $200K (counts $100K vs. overslot).
With Shaw/Miller signings, $117K above slot so far, if they can sign all 11 picks through 10th round, they can go above allotted slots by 5% or $375,775.
To be exact, we are over by $116,700 over slot right now, meaning the Giants potentially can go over slot by another $259,075 covering the rest of the signings.
DeleteIf they can add some more bonuses under slot, like with Shaw, they might be able to afford to sign one of the wild shot picks in the 30's that they have been doing since the last changes in the draft a couple of years ago. Thus far, they have only done one such signing, picking up C John Riley in the 2013 draft.
https://twitter.com/jimcallismlb/status/610993229484457986
ReplyDelete5th rounder Jebavy signs for $250K, underslot by $82,300, so the Giants are currently $34,300 over slot, leaving a little over $341K to get someone they drafted due to signability, typically in the 30th round or later.
Ooops, other signings, see the draft signing link above.
Delete#6 Duggar signed for slot, $248,800.
#8 Young signed overslot, $186,000 (vs. slot of $169,200)
#10 Cyr signed underslot, $100,000 (vs. slot of $149,700)
Which leaves us at $1,500 overslot, leaving a little over $374K to spend on overslot deals.
That's 7 of the first 12 picks, leaving #1 Bickford, second rounder, Suarez, fourth rounder Marshall, seven rounder Vizcaino, and ninth rounder Graybill.
I had guessed that perhaps Bickford might want more, to make up difference between the Giants slot and what he would have gotten had he signed with Toronto's slot. Marshall, having fallen to us by a lot or a little (BA had him ranked 86th, MLB.com 118th, but drafted 126th) might want more too. However, both purposefully chose to pitch CC this past season in order to be drafted, and Bickford said that he intends to sign, so we'll see what happens.
And they might also be trying to sign underslot Suarez and Graybill, as they were drafted early relative to rankings, to free up more bonus for signing others after round 10.
http://www.desertsun.com/story/sports/high-school/baseball/2015/06/17/travis-moniot-palm-desert-san-francisco-giants-oregon-ducks/28871425/
ReplyDeleteMoniot, Giants 34th round pick, spoke with the Giants and determined that they will not be offering enough money to make up for experience of 3 years of college, so he announced he's going to University of Oregon. He was hoping to be drafted in the second day of the draft, meaning in the third to tenth rounds.
That seems to be an overvalue of his talents. To be drafted in the first 10 rounds, that's roughly Top 300 talent. Neither Baseball America 500 nor Garrioch 400 had him ranked anywhere. Good luck to him in Oregon.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/15/8768873/ten-value-picks-from-the-2015-mlb-draft
ReplyDeleteAn article discussed value picks and noted the Giants 16th round pick, Grant Watson:
Grant Watson, LHP, San Francisco Giants: UCLA senior lefty Watson posted a 2.30 ERA in 97 innings with a 66/20 K/BB and 80 hits allowed. Well-known to college baseball fans, he lasted until the 16th round because he doesn't throw hard and observers worry that his margin for error isn't wide enough for him to survive at higher levels. That may be true. But maybe not.
I had been meaning to find some prior discussions of Mac Marshall from when Toronto drafted him, and ran into this in a search: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/5/10/5704250/2014-mlb-draft-profile-mac-marshall-lhp-parkview-hs-ga
ReplyDeleteMLB Projection
There's always a high risk with high school arms, but Marshall seems fairly polished. Right now I would project him at the back end of an MLB rotation, but he could be a #2 or #3 starter at the MLB level if his secondary pitches develop nicely. If his fastball velocity increases, he has an even higher projection.
Projected Round
Though he's ranked #58 by MLB.com, Marshall is a little higher on some other publications. John Manuel has him at #33 over at Baseball America.
In researching about what the Astros might offer him last season, the implications were that they were going to offer him $1.5M, or the money they would save by lowering Aiken's bonus. That would be late first round, Compensation A round money. That would fit in with BA's #33 ranking, but #58 would have put him at roughly $1M.
DeleteFor this draft, he's slotted for $444K, but the range per BA and MLB.com is $479,200 to $687,300, with a midpoint of roughly $583K. And midpoint draft pick between the two would be 102 which is slotted for $559K
So my guess (and it is truly a wild guess) is a deal in the $500-600K range.
And still, I don't see how he won't sign. He skipped on college to enter the draft. His ranking fell as he had a poor season in the eyes of draftniks, and if he don't sign, he risks another fall. The Giants are known for working magic with pitchers and for promoting them if they show off what they got, so he could make the money back fast if he can get to the majors sooner with them than with another team. And he was considered first round talent in 2014, if the Giants can help him recapture that, instead of perhaps joining a team that isn't able to help him do that, that would make up the difference as well, relative to waiting.
But I can understand the comedown from getting that close to a reported $1.5M last season (though I would note that that amount was only noted because of how much Houston was trying to save, but we don't know if they were saving some of that for another player as well, and the bonus slot for #58 was roughly $1M last season), that perhaps he might be holding out for $1M now, especially after seeing Miller get $1.1M in the round before.
Perhaps that is why Bickford hasn't signed yet, even though he said that he will be signing, as the Giants could be trying to get him to sign for less. Same with Suarez, who is viewed by some as a disappointing pick, as well as an overdraft, based on where he was ranked.
And these certainly are new Giants under Evans, under Sabean, they had never done a deal so low and so quick with a pick like Shaw, which enabled them to pick up Miller later, which is another deal that was never done like that under Sabean, paying so much overslot, even before when there wasn't hard slots, only Wheeler was over by so much (not including Ishikawa's signing) but that made some sense, he was the 6th pick of the draft.
This is the draft games that other teams had played but not the Giants. Perhaps they were waiting, watching, until they knew how to execute such a complex deal. Perhaps Evans been wanting to do such a deal. Hopefully the beats will report on this at some point.
As noted below, I was wrong, the Giants went above what he was ranked for this season, presumably to help with the sting of last season, giving him an even $750,000.
DeleteA rundown of the NL West drafts: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/131430988/analyzing-the-draft-by-division-nl-west
ReplyDeleteSan Francisco Giants
Outside of Georgia high school infielder Jalen Miller, who ended up with a bonus well above pick value in the third round, the Giants stuck with college players, taking only two more prepsters in the first 30 rounds.
Known for their penchant for drafting and developing pitching, San Francisco actually had a well-blended selection of draftees, hitting the junior-college ranks for top pick righty Phil Bickford and again in the fourth for lefty Mac Marshall, while nabbing the power of first baseman Chris Shaw with the No. 31 overall pick. They potentially got good value in toolsy Clemson outfielder Steven Duggar in the sixth round. They did take Brendan Little in the 32nd round, but the Pennsylvania high school lefty is likely headed to the University of North Carolina.
BA ranked Little #159, which was slotted for $332,700. MLB.com ranked him #112, slot of $508,000.
DeleteThey currently have $374K left to go over slot, which could be enough to sign Little. However, it depends on how much they can sign Bickford, Suarez, and Marshall to, as the Giants like to make sure they sign all their picks up to the 10th round first, then see what they can do with the guys drafted at the back of the draft, like Riley.
Most likely, they will need to go overslot in order to sign Marshall, and that makes signing Little probably a low odds probability.
DeleteAs noted below, Marshall signed for $306,200 overslot, and we are now down to $147K roughly that the Giants can go overslot on remaining draftees. So it is really possible any more to think of signing Little, but perhaps one of the others if the Giants can sign the last two to slot. But if they aren't signed yet, they could be asking for more than the Giants are offering, so we will just have to wait and see.
DeleteGot three more signings from the MLB link, will provide more info when found:
ReplyDelete#4 Mac Marshall signed for $750,000 (slot $443,800)
#7 Jose Vizcaino Jr signed for $150,000 (slot $186,600)
#9 David Graybill signed for $115,000 (slot $157,900)
That leaves slightly more than $147K to go to the 5% limit before penalties that the Giants have been going up against each draft since this has been instituted. We have our #1 Bickford and #2 Suarez left to sign.
@giantsprospects tweeted draft signings after 11th round earlier today:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/giantsprospects/status/613064146377027584
https://twitter.com/giantsprospects/status/613064239209582592
Round
13 Pope
14 Winn
15 Brickhouse
17 Avila-Leeper
18 Slatton
19 Owen
21 Halstead
23 Dobson
24 Bowers
27 Case
28 Fulmer
35 Jackson (one of few non-HS "just in case there's money" draftees, also gives them opportunity to speak with them before they go off to school, learn a little more; Jackson was a college senior)
https://twitter.com/giantsprospects/status/613064712897429504
Out of that group, I like Ryan Halstead, closer for Indiana. Dillon Dobson, preseason top 10 player in the Sun Valley Conference, power bat.
https://twitter.com/giantsprospects/status/613066050221948928
Matt Winn hit .304/.391/.586, a huge jump from his junior year. 2 players who haven't signed yet, but I like are D.Mazza(22) and M.Dietz(29)
Good guy to follow on Twitter, seems like nice guy, got into some nice discussions with him, and he has a lot of Giants prospect info.
He also reported that Suarez signed for slot, roughly $1.01M.
DeleteThat leaves Bickford as the last of the players drafted in the first 10 rounds. There is only $147K+ available to go over slot for any of the remaining unsigned players.
It has been reported that the Giants have signed Bickford for slot, $2.33M. The Giants have now signed all their picks up to the 11th round, and 18 of their first 20 picks, which is about par for their course.
ReplyDeleteThey still have $147K+ to spend to try to get the signability guys, like #12 Hector Santiago or one of the picks in the 30's. Surprised Grant Watson has not signed yet, #16, he's a senior so he should be signing.
Checked BA's listing of signings and they got a few more:
ReplyDelete#16 Grant Watson did sign according to their website. Also:
#26 Tyler Brown
#37 Matt Weist
#40 Roger Edwards
No report on whether they used any of the 5% or not, but most probably not. I'll check around another time to see if any report, but otherwise, this might be it for signings.
Article on Bickford: http://www.capecodbaseball.org/news/league/?article_id=2085
ReplyDeleteThe 2015 Golden Spikes award semifinalist posted a 9-1 record with a 1.45 ERA in 16 starts this season, striking out 166 batters compared with just 21 walks in 86 2/3 innings. He recorded 10 or more strikeouts eight times.
Bickford was impressive last summer, helping pitch the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox to the Cape Cod League championship. He allowed just two runs and struck out 44 batters in 27 2/3 innings, winning both the Russ Ford award, as the league’s most outstanding relief pitcher, and the Robert A. McNeese award, as its top pro prospect.
During his freshman year at Cal State Fullerton, Bickford posted a 6-3 record with a 2.13 ERA in 20 games (10 starts). He held opponents to a .232 batting average against and struck out 74 batters in 76 innings. His 8.76 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fourth in the Big West in 2014.
The 6-foot-5, 205-pound right-hander was rated as high as 21st by MLB.com among prospects heading into the draft. Observers were impressed by Bickford’s blazing fastball, which runs into the upper 90s, along with his improving slider.
While MLB.com projects Bickford as a starter, ESPN.com’s Keith Law noted that some scouts who saw him recently believe he’s more suited for a bullpen role in the long run. The issue seems to be one of consistency and of developing a third pitch, as Bickford has a lot of work remaining on his changeup. Law ranked Bickford 38th on his board and called him “the most volatile prospect in the draft.”