Looking Forward: Gary Brown

Great article on Giants prospect Gary Brown by incomparable Andy Baggerly, as everyone looks to next season and beyond, now that the Giants season will end soon.  He's had another great season dishing great information to us Giants fans, we are truly lucky to have him as one of our local scribes.  Some good bits I liked:

"This guy is going to be a big-league ballplayer," San Jose manager Andy Skeels said. "There's no doubt about it. He has everything he needs, and I don't think he needs anybody else to tell him that."

"I've still got more to learn, but I think I've shown what I'm capable of doing," he said. "Hopefully I can clean my up some of my mistakes in the Fall League and carry it into next season."

Skeels, the San Jose manager, believes the organization has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to grooming talent. He notes that players such as Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Madison Bumgarner all thrived in San Francisco from the moment they arrived.

"Once we determine that Gary's ready, he really will be ready," Skeels said. "He's a focused player who understands all the noise is meaningless. And he shares a lot of the same traits with Buster and Bumgarner. This kid competes."

Brown concedes that he's not happy about one thing he heard this season.

"People keep saying I'm a singles hitter," said Brown, who is 6-foot-1, 190 pounds. "Maybe they think that because I'm a leadoff man, but that's not me. I've been a gap hitter my whole life. So that gets me a little riled up."

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2011 Giants at Traditional Midway Point

The All-Star game usually is the marking point of the mid-way point of the season, though typically it is way past the exact half-way point of 81 games:  it is usually around 90 games that have been played by teams by the break.

2011 Big 6 Questions for Spring Training

In honor of Big 6 Christy Mathewson, I usually go over six questions facing the Giants at various points in the off-season.  Today, I'm tackling spring training.

Question 1: Pablo or Panda?!?

Many people are saying the Giants are standing pat, going stagnant, but they are wrong. The Giants are betting on several players returning to their prior production, one of whom, in a big way, one of them being Pablo Sandoval.

Will he be the Pablo of 2010 or the Panda of 2009? Of course, nobody knows, but I think Panda will be back. I've gone over his personal problems before, so I won't go there again, but the thing I should have emphasized more before is that he's a classic bad ball hitter in the mode of Vlad Guerrero, Manny Sanguillen, and others like them, who instinctively can swing and connect with the ball. So his problems at the plate in 2010 was more mental and not physical. Most people without a knowledge of the history of the game just don't understand that, and those who do have a knowledge are ignoring it.

If he can harness that with Barry Bonds' tutelege, that would be great, but really, people should just be happy that he can do what he has shown he can do. People are going in the opposite way of the pendulum today, towards the sabermetric side, and just put him down for not taking walks.  It don't matter he can't walk when you can hit like he showed he can in 2008, 2009, and April 2010.  Hitting is ALWAYS more valuable than walking when he supplies the power that he does. 

Of course, it would be great if he could take more walks, but WAIT, he actually wasn't that bad at it, the league average was 9.0% for BB% in 2009, and he had 8.2%, and the league average was 8.5% in 2010, and he had 7.6%, both within spitting distance of the league average.  It is not like he was like Bengie Molina or Juan Pierre or anything like that.  And his strikeout ratio was about the same as it was in 2009.  And once he started hitting for homers in June, for the rest of the 2009 season, his BB% was 9.7%.  I wouldn't be surprised if he beats the league average in 2011.

The main issue in 2010 was actually his BABIP.  It was at or above .350 in his two prior seasons, was only .291 in 2010.  As I noted, April 2010, he was basically the hitter he was before, and looking at the BABIP, it was, roughly, as his BABIP was .382.  After that, he couldn't really get it over .300, for the most part. 

Now, if it was because, as people posit, his poor plate discipline catching up with him or, as others say, his contact lens and vision problems, then why didn't his strikeouts skyrocket?  It didn't, overall it was essentially the same as it was in 2009 (13.1% in 2009, 13.2% in 2010, an increase of roughly 0.25 strikeouts on a ratio basis, in other words, basically the same).  For those theories to work, he should be striking out at a higher rate at minimum, and really, if these were correct, he should be striking out loads more, particularly for those who cite poor hitting approach:  13% strikeout rate is among the best in the majors, and he did that with his "poor plate discipline" or even his poor vision.  If either or both were true, his strikeouts should have gone up a lot based on their theory.

In case it is not obvious, this is my opinion, you can call it psuedo-psychology if you wish, but I counter that is more poor analysis on the part of others.  I'm happy to wait for the season to start and we'll see who is right and who is the psudo.

Question 2: Will Brandon Belt Belt?

One of the real no-brainer question of the spring. Some think he's a sure thing, but judging by how poorly he did in AAA (albeit small samples), he will probably need some time in AAA to prove himself after a 2010 season where he proved himself all through the minors plus the AFL, giving the lie to the Sabean Naysayers who say the Giants mishandle position prospects. The problem, as I've said before, is that the Giants position prospects haven't been that good.

But he could still break out and make the team with a great spring, and by that, it won't just be hitting well, many players have done great in spring only to fizzle in the regular season, Bowker being the latest example, Randy Elliott being a well known example to Giants fans of a certain age, but rather he will have to show the coaches that he knows what he is doing rather than just being lucky, as I think the Giants will err on the conservative with him.

So I can see the Giants sending him down while he's raking and the Sabean Naysayers will have a knipshin.

Whether or not the Giants are doing this because of control of the prospects, which is an understandable on the part of fans, people also need to remember that management needs to think long-term, we should want our team to get basically an extra year of control over the player. Let's put it this way, aren't you glad we got an extra year of enjoying Lincecum, Posey, and Bumgarner?

And to those who said it might have cost us in 2010, all I can say is: how did it cost us, the Giants are the World Champs.

Question 3: Who Will the Outfield Starters be?

To most, it would not seem to be that big a surprise: Burrell in LF, Torres in CF, Ross in RF. But this is a corrolary to Question 2, because the outfielders are not only competing with each other, they are competing with Brandon Belt, who if he makes the team, pushes Huff to the OF, leaving one less OF spot and then the musical chairs started.

However, Huff is now a year older on the wrong side of 30 and now has one bad season followed by one great season (albeit two great seasons out of the last three), and history is full of players who have one last great season, signs a contract, and is eatting dust the rest of the way (Robby Thompson is one Giants example). 

Even if Belt does not make the team out of spring training, almost all the potential starters have question marks that need to be answered.  First off, Torres is alwo a year older on the wrong side of 30 and haven't put together a full season of superior performance, though it is not totally his fault, he just figured out hitting before the 2009 season, and any team would make him prove himself (he did strike out an inordinate amount of time in 2009, which is not something you want to see out of your lead-off hitter).  El Lefty Malo has made the point numerous times on his blog that his health is something we need to watch out for, given his age and body type (sprinter type something have lingering hamstring problems).  I'm hopeful that his perseverance to improve as a hitter indicates the way he thinks, and he'll do all he can to avoid physical problems, unlike, say, Ray Durham or Aaron Rowand.

Ross is coming off a sub-par season, and it wasn't like he was consistently good previously, he only had two good full seasons previously.  However, he was with a sinking team with a lousy owner.  Once he was given the chance to start for the Giants in September, he hit like he did in 2008 and 2009, plus, of course, had his great playoff series.  Still, he turns 30 and that is an age milestone warning sign, maybe he just got hot for a month, just at the right time for the Giants.

Burrell is also on the wrong side of 30 and the eldest among the probable starters (though just barely ahead of Huff).  He's also a statue in the OF, though an above-average statue, as his defensive stats, per Baseball-Reference.com, says that he added a win with his defense, and according to the same stats, he was actually average in LF with Philly, contracting his image as a poor fielding and suggesting that perhaps defensive stats are still in need of tweaking, giving all the poor commentary on his fielding over the years.  Either that or most LF are just that bad, that is where teams put their poor fielders just because of their bat, because, after all, these measures typically compare the player with other players playing the same position that season.  Still, despite his great season for the Giants in 2010, most remember his poor 2009 and early 2010 with Tampa Bay and the scuttlebutt during the off-season was that Burrell wasn't going to be a starter.  After seeing a guy hit like that in 2010, I find that hard to believe, but it is true that players his age is stumbling down their decline years, so we will see.

Then there is Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, and Mark DeRosa, the potential bench players.  Rowand, as gamer as he was made out to be, got to be hurting psychologically.  He probably won't get better until he leaves the Giants, but if he is as mentally tough as he was made out to be, Rowand, when he's going good, is actually a pretty good player:  unfortunately, he can't sustain that good streak for very long before getting injured in a Giants uni, and his season is toast.  Schierholtz is similar in that he would be world-beating for 2-4 weeks and look like the second coming, then he would hurt something and come back too soon, making his stats look bad overall.  If either can stay healthy, Ross could have a hard time keeping his spot in the starting lineup and Burrell too. 

DeRosa has been an excellent (+1 win) defensive player at four different positions (2B, 3B, LF, RF) and come up as a SS, so I think he probably would be passable in CF and 1B as well, and could start a game or three at SS - I would rather have him in there than Fontenot, just saying - so he's probably not making the starting OF, he's going to be rotating around those four positions and, if his batting stroke is back, probably get into 100-120 games with maybe 15-30 starts at each position, get some DH duty, plus a lot of defensive replacement duty, and be the first guy to start if anything happens to Sanchez at 2B or Sandoval at 3B.  He's not going to get to start in the OF unless his surgery improves his hitting against RHP, which is the thing that has held him back offensively, though he's still OK against RHP, just not good.

So really, this is just another application of last year's risk mitgration practices that the Giants have been doing in recent years, where we can cobble together a performing starting lineup out of the people who are left standing after others have fallen, either physically or in performance. 
Question 4: Playoff Starting Pitchers' Fatigue?

This is another obvious area for people to focus on, due to the large number of extra innings pitched by the starters, particularly for Lincecum and Bumgarner, and Sanchez because he basically hit the wall during the playoffs and wasn't that good in his last three starts.  The Chronicle listed the grim stats as a part of their excellent series of daily articles about the Giants leading up to Spring Training (I wish they would provide one page to access all of the whole series):

• Lincecum: pitched 21.3 more innings than he ever did
• Cain:  pitched more innings before the playoffs started, a total of 27 more innings than his high before.
• Sanchez:  pitched more innings before the playoffs started, a total of 43.3 more innings than his high before (and as noted, it showed).
• Bumgarner:  pitched 44.3 more innings than what he says he did in 2008 between Class A Augusta, their playoffs, and Arizona instructional league

They will all be watched carefully by the Giants for any signs of fatigue or physical problem.

I'm not that worried.  Krukow's standard is jumping 25 more IP than the season before.  Lincecum was under that and Cain was only 2 IP above that.  FYI, they made much larger jumps in their first major league season and no bad effects showed up in the season afterward.  Both of them should be as good in 2011, particularly Lincecum, who had some learning pains in 2010 plus learned a new pitch that now gives him an out pitch against any hitter.  I would not be surprised by a sub-2.00 ERA season and approaching 300 strikeouts in the season.

Bumgarner, as I noted previously on another post, threw a whole lot more pitches between starts when he was in the minors.  At roughly 20 IP over the 25 limit (and remember 2008 was an even larger jump for him from 2007 because of his turning pro) and assuming 15 pitches per IP (should be on high side for him), that is 300 extra pitches.  With 24 starts in Augusta that season, all he had to do was roughly 15 extra pitches in-between starts to make up that difference, and remember, he was amazed that MLB starting pitchers threw so little in between starts and had said publicly that he would scale back his throwing because he suspected it was the cause of his poor velocity in late 2009.  Plus, he was effortlessly throwing mid-90's in the World Series game and he felt fine when he started pitching again in January, he was not fatigued at all.

Sanchez is the biggest worry, but even then, I am cautiously optimistic.  He has made an greater leap in IP before, when he became a starter in the majors in 2008.  That did not affect him in future seasons, his ERA has dropped sharply two years in a row.  He had deadarm in 2008, when he hit the wall he was pitching very well for a good dominant stretch and had an ERA just under 4.00 at that time, but he was great down the stretch in late 2009.  He also has Scott Boras as his agent, and as much as I hate his tactics from a team perspective, he certainly seems to have it going for his clients and has a physical fitness center somewhere in Arizona that helps his clients train and be fit.  He has a big investment in keeping Sanchez's performance at a high level in his last two season left with the Giants and will certainly make sure Sanchez gets the best medical advice on how to survive this jump in IP.

While the starters must and will be monitored by the Giants, I am not worried for the most part.  Should one starter go down for a while, while Suppan or Runzler will not be an ideal long-term solution as the #5 starter, the Giants survived 2009 OK with very poor pitching from the #5 spot for much of the season, until Penny joined, and we now have a much better offensive team than we did back then.  The key is surviving to the end is keeping four of our starters healthy and performing, not all five, a luxury we can do now that we have a better offensive lineup to trot out there.

Question 5: Who Will Win the Last Spot in the Pitching Staff?

The pitching staff is pretty much set, much to the joy of all Giants fans:  Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner as the starting pitchers, Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Ramirez, Casilla in the bullpen.  That's 11 and the Giants normally carry 12 pitchers.  Suppan, Runzler, and a bunch of players signed to minor league contracts will vie for that spot. 

I'll bet that Runzler will end up in AAA Fresno to start recrafting himself as a starting pitcher.  I believe that part of this exercise is to give Runzler more IP to work out his control problems, he just walks too many batters right now to be no more than a good reliever, but he would have closer ability with his strikeout rate if he could ever get that walk rate under 4.0, elite closer at under 3.0.  And at just about the right time too, if he develops, as Wilson will be almost into his free agent years around that time.
I think Suppan will win that last spot, only Mota is the only real contender for that spot right now.  If, that is, there is a spot.

Technically, there is no need for a long-reliever early in the season.  Heck, technically no need for a 5th starter, but if IP is a concern with the pitching staff, you would help things by easing up on Bumgarner while piling on the other starters.  So that spot could go to a position player, making this a trick question, a position player could win that last spot instead of Suppan.

Another reason this is the probably way to go is that there are so many potential OFs that the bench is full.  Assuming that Belt does not make it as a starter to start the season and that the starters work out the way most of us think, that leaves Whiteside as the backup catcher, Ishikawa as the backup 1B, Fontenot as the backup middle infielder, Rowand and Schierholtz as backup OF, and DeRosa as backup corner positions.  That is six bench players when there is only a five player bench when you carry 13 position players. 

Given that Ishikawa is the most likely player to go once Belt makes the majors, I expect the Giants to showcase Ishikawa during spring training and work out some sort of trade.  I've been thinking Seattle might want to give him a try since he grew up nearby and they could use a great defensive player since they rely on pitching with King Felix around.  But any team that is re-building and looking for a starting 1B might be willing to give up some prospect that they have given up on but that the Giants like in exchange for Ishikawa.

I've liked Ishikawa for a while and think that he would be OK playing 1B offensively while shining defensively.  He would be like a Rob Deer type, low-batting average, higher OBP because he can take some walks, higher SLG because he can hit the long-ball, but with the bonus that he is among the best fielders at 1B when starting regularly.  I think he can stick around for a long while like Deer did in the AL.

Unfortunately for him, he did not seize the ring when given the chance in early 2009 and Huff returned to his regular hitting ways instead of duplicating his poor 2009 season.  However, he'll have a nice memento for the rest of his life, knowing he contributed significantly to the team as a backup and as a non-grousing member of the bench, something Kevin Frandsen could have been doing for the Giants in 2010 had he didn't feel the need to mouth off to the press.

The only way he stays longer-term is if the Giants were somehow able to trade away Aaron Rowand during spring training.  I think they will showcase him and let him hit and if another team is convinced enough by that performance that he is healthy and ready to contribute, like the Phillies or White Sox, two former employers who believe in him, the Giants might be willing to pay $6-8M of his $12M salary per season to get rid of him.  If the other team wants any more than that, then he's basically being paid like a bench player by the Giants, so why not keep him around in case we need him for some awful reason?

Spring training should expose who will win this final spot on the roster, as many will be fighting to stay with the Giants via that spot.
Question 6: Will the World's Champ Crown Still Fit?

Sometimes when a player does great in his first season, he gets a swelled head and think very highly of himself, too highly.  When you have a team like the Giants, winning it all in their first shot at it in the playoffs, it could lead to some over confidence on the part of some of the players, and the Giants the way they are built need virtually all their players to perform to their expectations in order for them to make the playoffs, which should be the goal of any team for the season, because the playoffs is such a crapshoot in terms of winning it all, in any case.

So far, all the players are saying the right sports platitudes about not letting it get to their head, keeping it real, and helping to remind their fellow players of that fact.  But it is one thing to say it to the media, another to do that in the field and around your teammates.  Huff and Burrell together, plus Cain and Wilson on the pitching side, look ready to prick the balloon of anyone who dares to be complacent.  They have a chip on their shoulders because many people, including Giants fans (but not this one) are saying that the Giants in 2010 was a fluke. 

Spring training should  expose those who slacked off in any way, and with so many movable parts, the Giants could easily bench or even trade those players who are not sticking to the program. 

Torres, Torres, Torres: Signed!

The final player eligible for arbitration, Andres Torres, signed for either $2.1M or $2.2M, I have seen both figures.  The sfgiants.com website article by Half reported $2.1M and, while I can't find it online,  I read in the San Jose Mercury that he signed for $2.2M plus $100K in incentives.  The Chronicle reports only $2.2M.  Who knows, maybe it is $2.1M with $100K in incentives, which could account for both reports.  $2.2M is the mid-point between the salaries that the Giants  and Torres submitted to the arbitration board.

Now it is time for the Giants to handle all the pre-arb players, like Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner.  While they have the right to impose any salary that they want, as the Brewers found out when they did that with Prince Fielder, just doing that without some negotiation and agreement with the player and his reps could lead to a poisoned relationship. Obviously, Posey is the tougher one since he won the Rookie of the Year award, but Bumgarner pitched a great shutout in the World Series.  Lincecum, though, after his Cy Young season got $650,000, according to Baseball-Forecaster.com, so I would say that is the ceiling.

And hopefully the Giants can work on a long term deal with one or two of their young arbitration players to get more salary certainty.

Supp's On and Other Arbitrary Moves

Jeff Suppan has signed with the Giants to try to make the 25-man roster (report by Schulman).  If he makes the roster, he gets $1M contract and probably some incentives based on IP.  He also can opt to leave the team should he not make the MLB team out of spring training.

He is the Giant's leading 6th starter alternative now, and, assuming he passes the audience, if you read between the lines in all the press about his acquisition, looks like he can make the 25-man roster out of spring as the long man out of the pen.  He is also insurance if, god forbid, any of the starting pitchers are out for any reason.  That makes some sense given prior statements by the Giants, and general overall concern over the work put on the arms of the starters in 2010 because of the playoffs and World Series.  They might go to Suppan sooner when the game gets out of hand, to reduce the IP load on starters, plus conceivably could start the season with both Bumgarner and Suppan in the bullpen, since the 5th starter isn't needed until in late April, typically, or start Suppan in the rotation initially with Bumgarner in the bullpen, to both ease the workload on the rest of the starters.  Or they can really go out there and have 6 starters initially, as I had suggested the Giants do in late 2010 in order to ease the load on the starters plus keep them regularly starting every 6th day.

Dan Runzler now is the second alternative, probably will be placed in AAA to get his inning in there as a starter. That is preferred because, frankly, he was pretty wild as a reliever, though he did at least strike out enough to make that viable.  Often, for relievers who are too wild, the Giants in the past have put them into a starter role in order to give them more IP in which to figure out what their problem is, as well as extra work on figuring out another pitch to use, that might help their repertoire.  Also, starters have to pitch more slowly and thoughtfully than relievers do, and sometimes slowing things up like that helps the pitcher.  Plus, some pitchers need to take off some of the heat off their pitches in order to improve their control, and making them a starter helps to do that.

Arbitration Avoidance

The Giants continued their practice of avoiding arbitration by signing Santiago Casilla (as was rumored to have been basically done the other day of the other announcements for Ross, Sanchez, and Ramirez) to a $1.3M contract and Javier Lopez to a $2.375M contract (where do they get these numbers?).  Now they have Andres Torres left to sign ($1.8M offer/$2.6M asking) and reportedly (by Chronicle and probably others) he is very close to signing as well.  The Giants apparently wanted to focus on one year deals with everyone in order to get them signed before arbitration, but as I noted the other day, I hope they start on a long term contract with Jonathan Sanchez.

I would also hope for longer deals with Lincecum and Cain as well, but it would be my guess, based on prior preferences, Lincecum's agents will want to wait for a great 2011 to press for more money, and Cain took a big step in 2010, and probably could get more money by showing that was not a fluke in 2011.  I am more hopeful for a Cain signing since he loves being a Giant and has planted roots here in SF.

I wouldn't mind deals for Posey and Sandoval, but I would think the Giants would want to see another year out of Posey first and Sandoval's agents will want to be paid for 2009 production, not 2010 production, and there is still the matter of his weighty problems.  I also wouldn't mind a deal for Romo, just to get salary certainty for the coming years, but I am OK with waiting too, relievers are harder to value.  Lastly, Brian Wilson's deal is over this season, and I think 2012 is his last arbitration year, so maybe another 2 year deal, one contracted year, one option year.

2011 Arbitration Day: Signings and Other Thoughts

There have been various tweets announcing the Giants signings today to avoid arbitration:

• Cody Ross:  $6.3M (last year of arb)
• Jonathan Sanchez:  $4.8M (second year)
• Ramon Ramirez:  $1.65M (last year)

There are also three other to settle:  Andres Torres, Javier Lopez, and Santiago Casilla.  They had already signed Mike Fontenot earlier and released Chris Ray. 

Giants Thoughts

Ross got around what I thought he would, based on most commentary I saw when Giants picked him up.  Most noted that Ross would earn $6M in arbitration and if you tack on salary inflation, that is roughly what he got.  That also fit into arbitration theory, which states that Y1 arbs get 40% of value, Y2 arbs get 60%, and Y3 arbs get 80%, and he roughly got the same value as in 2010 with bump up from 60% to 80% plus some salary inflation.

Sanchez got less than I thought.  With his good 2010, I thought that might tilt his salary higher, into at least $6-8M range, based on a $10-12M value range for what he can do.  He still got a great raise (he made $2.1M last season) though. 

Hopefully this is just to get him signed and avoid arbitration, and now they can build this into a multi-year deal going into his free agent season(s).  But I would guess that Dirty's agent will not want to settle for what he got now, he would rather have Sanchez have another great season similar to 2010 (low 3's ERA in particular) and get a really big raise in Y3 arbs plus maybe into free agent years.

I'm hoping the Giants at least broach the subject with Sanchez and be willing to push the money higher to get a multi-year signed.  I think he should be able to repeat a similar season, and if we got him signed for, say, another year plus option after the 2011 season, we should be able to trade him for a big package of prospects similar to the A's Haren deal, maybe with Royals or Pirates, they both have a lot of young and good prospects.

Ramirez got what arb theory suggests from Y2 to Y3, I think, roughly 43% raise, with 33.3% from move from Y2 to Y3 and salary inflation covering the rest.

Remaining Arbitration Cases

Three more down, only three more to go.  Hank Schulman tweets AP report on arb bids/offers:

• Andres Torres:  $1.8M/$2.6M
• Javier Lopez:  $2.0M/$2.875M
• Santiago Casilla:  $1.0M/$1.65M

I assumed the hangup with Andres Torres is that his agent wants to be signed as a proven starter but that the Giants want to still sign him below because while he performed well, he's only really been a starter for less than a season, which could result in some regression, potentially.  The numbers are roughly right assuming that, but they are pretty close, so maybe they will sign for the mid-point, the Giants typically have been able to do that in the past.  Only AJ Pierzynski has gone to arbitration in the Sabean era, as far as I can remember, though Lincecum was within minutes of going into arbitration before his agent decided that it was better to strike a deal.  So around $2.25M or so.

For Lopez, his side is basically asking for the same base value as he got in 2009 (but with higher Y3 multiplier), while the Giants are pricing in the risk that 2009's performance puts into the equation.  At $2M, the Giants are already giving him a 50% raise, which is pretty good.  I think they will also meet in the middle, as well, maybe $2.5M.

Not sure what Santiago Casilla's problem is other than the old fashion difference in opinion on what he is worth.  He probably wants a salary like a proven set-up reliever who is now in arb, while the Giants has more of a wait and see attitude given that was his first season of good performance, and not even a full season.  He probably got the league minimum or so in 2010, slightly more than $400K, and the Giants more than doubled it in their offer. Hopefully they can split the difference, but my guess is that the Giants are going to hold to their guns if Casilla's side is sticking close to that request of $1.6M.  I expect another meet in the middle at $1.35M.

But as I noted, the Giants in the Sabean era has avoided arbitration with all but AJ, so I expect signings to happen before the cases get put in front of arbitration.  As was reported (by Hank Schulman I believe), the Giants are focusing on one year deals with everyone.  That makes sense for both sides, particularly the players in these cases, as they hope that their players can perform well again and get a bigger raise next season, particularly for those going free agents. 

As I noted above, I hope the Giants can sign Sanchez to a multi-year deal, which would set up a Haren-type bidding for Sanchez's services after the 2011 season.  A big stash of young, good prospects right around there would be a perfect time for an injection of talent into the farm system given that the Giants hope to be pennant contenders for the near future and thus would not be getting good draft picks in terms of probability of getting a good player.  Those players would then be maturing in the 2013-2016 timeframe, when we start losing guys to free agency, particularly Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez (I expect Cain to stick around for most of his career). 

Assuming they sign for roughly mid-point as I speculated above, that would be 19 players totalling $114.8M in payroll.  Add 6 more roster spots at $450M average, that is a total payroll of $117.5M (or $115.9M if Rowand's salary only counts for $12M in 2011; dispute over how bonuses are allocated, I would lean towards $115.9M).  That is roughly $15-20M more than the payroll in 2010.  The money the team made in the playoffs probably counts for $10-15M of that increase, so the Giants, on relative terms, isn't raising their payroll that drastically, and probably could handle another $5-10M if there was a player worth getting in that range and a roster spot.  At this point, I would rather they stick with what we got and save it for the future, when we hopefully sign Lincecum, Cain, and other young players to long-term deals.

2011 Arbitration Cases and Non-Tenders

The Giants decision on arbitrations tenders were released (Hank Schulman and Carl Steward).

As many expected, the Giants tendered outfielders Cody Ross and Andres Torres, starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and relief pitchers Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez.  The Giants usually come to an agreement with almost every player that are arbitration eligible, so this is just a formality for that process to hold their rights on the players.  The only ones that I can remember going to arbitration was A.J. Pierzitski and, of course, they almost went to it with Tim Lincecum last off-season.

The Giants also announced that they signed Mike Fontenot to a one year contract.  Schulman reported that it was for slightly over $1M; I think that is about what he got last season, I thought he might get as high as $1.5M, but maybe he wants to stay.  Sabean noted that he would be getting some looks at SS and be a backup there as well as 2B.

Oddly enough, they also announced that Eugenio Velez was also non-tendered.  He was not arbitration eligible, according to the report, but apparently the Giants wanted the spot on the 40-man for other purposes. Shulman noted a number of factors in this decision: his 40-man spot, that he's out of options and not expected to make the team, even the raise he'd be due by rule if he cleared waivers and was sent to Fresno.

Schulman also reported that Ray and Velez might be re-signed to minor league deals.  I don't really see that happening.  Velez can see how crowded the OF and 2B is on the Giants (particularly once Belt pushes Huff to LF), and as much as he might want to stay, his agent should be advising him to look elsewhere.  Ray could like it enough to stay, but he's a former closer and he wasn't that bad last season, so I think there would be other teams interested in him.  Perhaps he and the Giants have a handshake deal to do this to open a spot to enable the Giants to add another free agent, as desired, with the understanding that they will work it out for him to be on 25-man to start 2011 season.  A signal for this would be a split contract with a minor league salary and a major league salary if he makes the team.  We'll see.

Your 2010 Giants are 2-1 in the NLCS: MadBum Rush the Phillies

It was tweeted by Jeff Fletcher of AOL that teams with a 2-1 lead in a 7 game series have won 30 of the 40 playoff series.  So the Giants are in a very good position from this history.  However, I would also note that this means that 25% of the time, this team has lost the series.  So it is not a gimmee, there is still a significant chance that the Phillies could roar back.

However, as I noted in my original series blog post, Madison Bumgarner, he of 1.13 ERA in last month of season and the steely nerves of a veteran player twice his age, is going for us against Joe Blanton, who had horrible stats for the season, which looked like a gimmee.  But it is not as easy as I once thought.

Game 4:  Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner

Shame on me for looking at just his surface seasonal stats:  Joe Blanton has been on a huge roll since the All-Star break.  3.48 ERA overall, 3.33 ERA in his 15 starts (hat tip to KNBR for noting his great performance at the end).  10 DOM starts and only 2 DIS starts in those 15 starts, excellent numbers if kept up over a full season.  He won't be as much of a gimme as I thought in my original post.

If there is any consolation, most of his 5 non-DOM starts (4), happened in his last 10 starts, and both DIS starts happened then.  He did man up, however, and delivered four 5 PQS starts in his last six starts.  Basically he hit his bad patch in August but was great in September.  That is the exact opposite of what he has done in his career, he's usually good in August and horrible in September.

However, his last start was on September 29th and October 3rd is the last time he pitched in an actual game, 16 days of rest since his relief appearance, and he did not do well in that game, 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, BB, and one of the hits were a homer.  And he has not done well with extra rest, interestingly enough:

4 days rest:  3.83 ERA (104 starts)
5 days rest:  4.80 ERA (64 starts)
6+ days rest: 4.97 ERA (22 starts)

Basically, when he don't get exactly 4 days rest, he gets rusty a lot, one day alone has made a huge difference, almost a run more, and he has pitched in a significant number of games in 5+ days rest situations to suggest that this is not a fluke.

And, also interestingly enough, he has built his career on keeping LHH down, he is not even that great against RHH.  The batting line for LHH is worse than for RHH:

LHH:  .267/.320/.406/.726
RHH:  .278/.325/.440/.764

So the Giants will be facing a very tough opponent, who should be thoroughly rested, though possibly rusty.  The Giants might need to capitalize on that rustiness early in the game, to knock him out before he finds his strike, and get into a good groove.  For some reason, RHH can hit Blanton for extra power, could be our key to winning today, as we will have Burrell, Ross, and Posey in there, plus Franchez and probably Uribe. If he had that batting line for RHH and the usual platoon advantage that LHH would have on him, he would not be a major league pitcher today, he's probably a AAAA pitcher bouncing up and down to fill in a rotation spot.

Giants Hitters Vs. Blanton

Bill James matchup report shows that the Giants hitters don't have a great history against Blanton.  Some key names and numbers:

Burrell:  3-12, 3 HR, BB, 5 K
Fontenot:  2-9
Huff:  4-20, BB, 2 K (due for hits, low BABIP)
Ishikawa:  3-4, K
Posey:  1-3, K
Renteria:  0-3
Ross:  3-11, 1 HR, 6 K though
Rowand:  2-4
Franchez:  2-7, K
Sandoval:  0-6, K
Torres:  1-3, HR, K
Uribe:  1-11, 3 K

Sandoval Need to Step:  Could be Ready to Step Up

The speculation among the Giants beat writers is that Sandoval will get a shot at Blanton.  Obviously, his numbers are not good, but that was probably half in August when Pablo was not doing well.  Of course, he hasn't been doing well recently either, but drew a walk in his last PH assignment, so I think he might be ready to contribute.  I think for the Giants to win this series and hopefully win the World Series, Sandoval is among the key players who needs to heat up NOW.  We cannot rely on Cody Ross to carry us all the way through (though if he's capable of that, all the better :^)  (Just saw a tweeted factoid:  apparently Ross was also claimed by the Phillies but the Giants got him because they had a worse record;  funny how fate works!).  Sandoval is in today's lineup.

Other key guys are the usual suspects that we all can name, pretty much our whole lineup, really:  Torres, Posey, Huff, Burrell, Uribe.  For our long-term benefits, I really want Posey or Sandoval to take the lead, we've seen Posey do it during the season, so we know we have it in him (maybe next year he can be like Will Clark and take over a series), but Sandoval we are still learning, his ups and downs this season has put a lot of doubt in people's minds (not in mind, though), so it would be nice if he started blasting balls out like he does when he's zoned in.

Given that Sandoval was patient enough to battle for 7 pitches, 3 of which were strikes, to take a walk in a situation where we needed every base runner we could get (down 6-1), where someone might be tempted to hit a 6-run homer with the bases empty, he was able to hold back, take the balls given him, foul off the third strike, I have to think that he is now not swinging at everything hoping to connect, like he was the first two games, his first two playoff games, he might be ready to Kung Fu the ball.

If we had a functioning Kung Fu Panda, that would put pressure on the opposing pitchers and give our other hitters better pitches as well, particularly if he confounds the pitchers by hitting good pitches for line-drive hits (much like how Ross has been doing that so far).  A Pandoval would also, as Bochy likes to say, keep the line moving, much like they did yesterday to score two runs.  And the occasional homer would help as well.

Torres Could be Key But Not Today

There has been a lot of stats noting how important it is for a team to score first, and the key for the Giants to score first in 2010 has been Andres Torres.  Bochy said specifically that he was resting Torres yesterday so that he can regain his focus, but still kept him out of today's lineup.  Torres also mentioned some problems with his ADD medicine but that he's got that fixed now, though maybe not enough for Bochy's tastes.

If he can return to his 2009-10 goodness, that would obviously be a huge plus for our offense, particularly if he contributes a homer here and there.  I think he's going to be ready as well, assuming that ADD med problem was a big part of his struggles.  But obviously we won't find out today.

Getting Bumgarner the lead early would allow him to be aggressive in going after hitters.  Our pitchers seem to gain an advantage when they get the lead, they have been very successful when given the lead.  Hence the need for our offense to wake up, but with no Torres, have to hope Renteria and Sanchez up top can do something for Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross to drive in.  Sandoval is batting 7th and Rowand 8th.   Rowand says that he's really strong right now, it would be great if he catches on fire, but he struck out twice yesterday.  Have to assume the line drive double makes Bochy thinks he is in his groove, Bochy unfortunately has seen Rowand at his best and worse the past few seasons, hopefully he can tell when Rowand is on or not.

Your 2010 Giants are 81-63: Manned Up, Now Beat Dying Dogs

The Giants manned up and beat the 'Dres 3-1 in the four game series, which put them in a virtual tie with them for first and guarantees a second season of not having a losing record.  Unfortunately, the D-Rox continued their winning streak and are now only 2.5 games behind the 'Dres and 2 games behind the Giants, after SD beat them Monday.   The Giants finished up a very successful 7-3 trip and return home for 6 games - 3 versus LA and 3 vs. MIL - followed by 6 games on the road - 3 vs. Cubs and 3 crucial games vs. COL - then end with 6 games at home - 3 vs. AZ and ending with 3 vs. SD.

The Giants ideally sweep LA like SD did last week, to separate some from the D-Rox and/or 'Dres, who are playing each other.  However, it won't be easy to even win the series, which the Giants need to at least do, to keep up in the standings, as they face LA's top three starters, Kershaw (they juggled the rotation to put him in this series), Billingsley, and Lilly.  If they should win the series, they would win the season's series from LA, as they currently stand 8-7 against their hated rivals, who has faded fast in the second half:  as I noted in the last series, they have not won one series against a playoff contender in the second half so far and have continued that streak.  Hopefully the Giants will continue that streak.

Game 1:  Clayton Kershaw vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

D-gers:  Kershaw opens a three-game set with the Giants. Originally scheduled to pitch Saturday at Houston, he had his start pushed back to Wednesday and was a tough-luck loser to San Diego. He limited the Padres to two runs but was outdueled by Mat Latos.

Giants:  Zito hasn't won in 10 starts, but it hasn't been all his fault. Take Wednesday: He allowed two D-backs runs in six innings and even struck out seven but lost, 3-1. If he keeps it up, winning should take care of itself.

Amazingly, he has faced the Giants only once before as a starter in SF and he did pretty well, 2 ER in 7 IP, and that was earlier this season.  And as noted, he did very well in his last start, and has been the staff ace this season, with a 2.99 ERA this season.

Meanwhile, Zito has not had a good start in ages, though he has been better in his latest outings, because when he strikes out a lot, that is a good sign.  Unfortunately, the baseball gods been making his batted balls fall in for hits lately, probably to even up his earlier performance in April, so his outings have been short.

Have to say that the D-gers probably got this one, unless Zito can actually deliver a DOM PQS game instead of coming close but no dice.  He will need to step up in this game, but he appears to have regressed to his 2007-2008 level of performance where he's thinking too much about his results, about delivering, instead of just throwing strikes and hitting the target, unlike early in this season when he said he finally got to the point where he didn't care how the fans felt, he was going to have fun and not care as much.  But he appears to be caring again, too bad, because we need him to return to his April form, much like Lincecum has returned to his April form.

This shows how crucial to have multiple aces in your rotation in the playoffs and a strong rotation top to bottom.  If we lose this first game with Zito, then we need to win the next two to win the series, against tough starters.  Anytime in the playoffs, we could throw Lincecum or Cain, and put us in excellent spot to win the series by winning that first game.  Then you only need to win two out of four, while the loser has to win three out of four, which is daunting when the four is probably Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Lincecum.  Or three out of six, while the loser has to win four out of six.

Game 2:  Chad Billingsley vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

D-gers:  Billingsley opposes Matt Cain in a battle of 11-game winners. He lost to the Padres, 4-0, in his last start, allowing four earned runs on six hits and five walks in 5 1/3 innings. It was his second five-walk game in three starts. He struck out six.

Giants:  Cain got the Giants started in their successful series at San Diego, working two batters into the ninth inning last Thursday. With a 5-2 record and a 2.96 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break, Cain has been the team's most effective starter.

Have to call this even.  Cain has been great but Billingsley can be great when he is on.  And he is great in ATT, 2.68 career ERA there.  And he has been better there this season, 1.42 ERA.  Meanwhile, the Cainer has not been that good against LA in AT&T in his career.  But he finally got the monkey off his back with a win in his last start against them, and frankly, LA has been flat this whole second half, losing against playoff contending teams, heck, getting swept by SD right after SD lost 10 in a row.  So can go either way, even.

Game 3:  Ted Lilly vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

D-gers:  Lilly, who was acquired from the Cubs on July 31, is 5-2 for the Dodgers but has lost his last two decisions. In Houston last Thursday, he took the 3-2 loss to the Astros, snapping his seven-game winning streak against Houston.

Giants:  Sanchez has been on a roll, recording a 1.95 ERA over his past five starts. He has surrendered just 17 hits in 32 1/3 innings in that span, helping lower his opponents' batting average to .208.

Ted Lilly has been great for the D-gers since they traded for him from Chicago.  Unfortunately for him, the rest of the D-gers have not collectively performed, and despite his 3.33 ERA, 5-2 record, great peripherals, the D-gers just sunk lower and lower into the NL West.  He only has two starts in ATT, and only one in recent past, a start in 2008 which was very good, but of course, the offense wasn't that good then either.

Sanchez has been great recently.  And he is basically tied with Bumgarner for the second best ERA on the team (3.29 vs. Bumgarner's 3.28), which most people don't realize, it seems, because so many people want to trade him.   Sure, he has been up and down, but he has the stuff that makes hitters swing and miss or not hit as hard, he has no-hit stuff.

Not that he is as good as Sandy Koufax, but it took Koufax a number of years before he figured out how to harness his no-hit stuff regularly and consistently.  Sanchez has a 3.29 ERA even though he's been erratic, so people obviously are remembering his problem starts and not when he has done very well.  However, he has not done well against LA previously in his career:  but more importantly, in his last start against them on September 5th, he totally dominated LA, 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 9 K's, in LA.

Both can be good, so I will have to call this even.  But if Sanchez can get ahold of his talent and dominate, I would like the Giants chances to win.  And based on recent performances, Sanchez looks like he could pull off the win.  He has shown advancement this season, even his last start, even though it was short and wild, he was able to keep the scoring down to a minimum, and that is all you can ask of your starters when they just don't have it.  He needs to step up in this start - again - and take out LA.  But overall, have to call it even.

Giants Thoughts

I was going to post this after Saturday's game, but didn't have the time:  after the loss, I didn't feel anxious like I have all season after losses.  I think the Giants are for real and will continue to win.  But will it be enough for a playoff spot?  Don't know, hopefully so.

But players are peaking at the right time for the most part.  The pitchers have all been amazing, particularly Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner, well, except for Zito, but when he's striking out a lot of batters, that means he's actually pretty locked in, it mainly means the baseball gods are going against him with balls falling in.  The bullpen has been amazing too.  The hitters have been led by Posey, with Huff finally loosening up and hitting, Burrell and Uribe hitting well, and Schierholtz has been hitting in the pinch.

The loss of Torres would be frightening if it wasn't that the Giants have been winning in September with him hitting pitifully.  As well as his defense is, the dropoff from him to Rowand, Ross (who is now looking betteras an acquisition with Torres lost for the season probably), or even Schierholtz, would be equal or surpassed by how well his replacement should hit relative to Torres frigid September while we were winning.

Like the series in LA, it is looking like LA should win this series based on the pitching matchups, as they send out their three best against the Giants, like SD, switching Kershaw so that he could pitch against the Giants.  But they played just bad enough to lose at home, and now they are on the road, where they are a horrible 30-42, as well as continuing their streak of losing every series against a playoff contending team in the second half.  They are just sinking and waiting to hit bottom.  I expect them to play just well enough to lose the series to the Giants and continue to sink in the NL West.   But with SD winning against COL Monday, the Giants look like they need to sweep to keep up and/or get ahead of both SD and COL.

But I think a series win will be enough.  As DrB noted, the Giants look like they need to just stay steady and win every series if they want to make the playoffs.  They look ready to do that in each series except for the one in Colorado, that will now be on par with their two series in the past month with SD, with the two teams battling it out to claim first place in the division.

The Giants have been pretty amazing this season.  They have come back from games where they had no business winning.  They have come back from bad losing streaks and bad pitching streaks and bad hitting streaks.  Bad slumps from all players, including Posey.  They were monster hot in July and so far so good in September.  The starting pitching has been pretty good this month, and if Zito can join them in producing, the rotation would become great, not just good.  The bullpen, as Baggarley noted today in the newspaper, has been great too.  If they can maintain the heat, they should get into the playoffs over somebody.

Go Giants!  Beat LA!

Bumgarner Starts

One topic I've been opining around is about how to handle Bumgarner.  He is over his top IP from previous seasons now.  When do the Giants pull him out of the rotation to protect his arm?

Some just want to shut him down because he is over.  The Giants have already addressed this in an interview, they are going to monitor Madison closely, see how he is doing, game to game.  I like that approach more than going by a set number.  Both Cain and Lincecum went way over their previous IP highs in their first full season and it hasn't affected either.  And the Giants sat down Lincecum when they thought he was done, though that wasn't in a pennant race, while now we are.

Bumgarner has three starts left, Brewers, Cubs, and then D-backs.  Given that he was throwing 95 in his last start, late in the game, he seems to be strong still, so he's definitely pitching in the Brewers game.  At worse, we could make the Cubs start a bullpen start where we just went out a bunch of relievers to eat up innings, which should be OK since the Cubs is now looking strongly at youngsters.  Then with 9-10 days rest, he should be able to take the D-backs start.

I think Bumgarner is a horse.  He is what I call "farm strong" and those pitchers just seem to have great strength and stamina.  I think the Giants will go right by him, and I don't think he would continue to pitch if his body is telling him something is up, being a man of nature.

Also, he mentioned during the off-season that he threw a lot in between starts and theorized that this caused his loss of velocity.  We now know that it appears more a problem with mechanics than tiredness from overuse.  But he said that he would lay off throwing so much between starts, so we don't really know if he has actually thrown more pitches in 2010 so far than he did in 2009 because there is that iceberg of throwing that he did between starts in 2009 that we do not have a number for.

It would be interesting if a reporter would ask him to estimate 2009 vs. 2010 in terms of pitches and see where he thinks he is.  I would pose the question myself to a reporter, but for some reason they have never been receptive to my list of questions (of course, part of it could be the length of the list, but the way I see it, they can pick and chose what they think are good questions to answer, I don't expect every question to be answered).

Rotation Order

How to handle Bumgarner also affects another big question:  the pitching rotation.  According to Baggarley, if the rotation continues as is, the Giants would throw Zito, Cain, and Sanchez against SD in the final three games of the season, but with the off-day on Monday, they could push Zito to Friday to pitch against the D-backs, and push back Lincecum so that we have Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez going against SD in the final games.  Obviously, skipping Bumgarner and moving up the starters would make it harder to adjust the rotation to have Licnecum, Cain, Sanchez going against SD.

In addition, skipping Bumgarner would result in our starters having to start more games and putting more stress and work on the other starters' arms.  That could tired them out for the playoffs, though of course one could argue the Giant won't make it unless they did that.  I would not agree, I think having Bumgarner in the rotation gives us best chance to make playoffs, as it puts less games on arms plus means less starts for Zito.

I think it's best to keep rotation as is, but if Bumgarner needs to skip a start, bring up Pucetas to eat innings and hopefully not give up too many runs, then treat it as a bullpen game, bringing in the relievers to finish the game.  Then we can adjust, having Zito face the D-backs, against whom he should be better able to handle and win against, while we then throw Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez at SD, make it tough for them.

Replacement of Torres:  Multi-Dimensional Hole

Rowand and Ross are probably the main replacements, with Schierholtz perhaps getting a look if neither is working.  Ross is clearly the guy to play versus LHP, he's excellent against them, then mix and match against RHP.  That probably works OK offensively and defensively because Torres hasn't been hitting this month, so the upgrade offensively should match the drop-off on defense.  Plus maybe play Guillen less and Schierholtz more in RF, to offset the defensive loss, particularly since Guillen has not heated up yet.

But the big question is who leads off?  Rowand is the obvious choice only because he has done it, but he's not the ideal choice.  Darren Ford would be if he were able to get on base OK, but he's not, he is not even that good in AA, how is he going to do it in the majors?  Someone suggested batting Sanchez leadoff.

One choice, if Schierholtz plays more, is to use him in leadoff.   He has some good speed, he had stolen double digits annually in the minors.  The main problem is his lack of OBP.  But the team was winning with Torres basically contributing nothing in the leadoff spot, so anything Schierholtz can provide would be a great improvement likely.

A radical choice would be to bat Huff at leadoff.  His OBP is off the charts.  And as a runner on the bases, in 2008, he actually generated plus value as a baserunner, unlike last season, where a lot of the negatives were  because of hit and runs where he ran into a CS.  He appears to be a smart baserunner when allowed to do that.

I don't know what the answer is.  I would go with Schierholtz because if he can get hot, that would be another hot bat to carry us to the end of the season, plus he would provide some speed up top and good baserunning (at least according to Bill James Handbook on baserunning effectiveness).  I would also be OK with going with Rowand, mainly because when he is hot, he can carry a team, unlike Schierholtz, who would still be complementary to the team's offense, not the instigator.  Ross would be OK too, against LHP, where he just mashes and is great against.

Your 2010 Giants are 56-43: Keep It Going Against the Marlins

Wow, what a road trip, what a road sweep!  The Giants were 3 runs from sweeping the whole road trip!  But we are close to losing a number of games as well, in fact, the D-gers series could very well have been a losing series given how the second game in that series went.

Furthermore, we must remain cognizant that the gauntlet has just because, the travel just begun.  The road will be arduous, as the Giants still have 35 games over the next 38 days, with series against the D-gers, D-Rox, 'Dres, Braves, Phillies, Cards, Reds.  Then right after that, an even MORE important stretch, playing 6 games against LA, 4 games vs. SD by Sept. 16th, 13 games in total in 14 days.  In total, 44 of the last 63 games will be played against teams with over .500 records.  These are the long days of the pennant stretch with every few days of rest, but at least we are still in the hunt.

Still, great month so far.  And as Baggarly noted in his blog, the Giants need to go 4-2 the rest of the month of July to have their first 20-game win month since September 2000.  And that includes all the playoff teams we had with Bonds early in the decade.  This is the best winning streak this season, even better than the stretch they had after adding Posey to the lineup, from May 27 to June 14, when they went 13-5 in 18 games.

Now we get four games against the Marlins, a team that has struggled to reach and stay at .500 this season.  However, much as I described Colorado's dependence on Ubaldo, they are very reliant on Josh Johnson, their ace, who has taken it to another like Ubaldo, except that unlike Ubaldo, he has shown no signs of regressing back to his prior level of excellence and is still delivering once in a generation type ERA.

His ERA is 1.61 (Ubaldo has ballooned since I discussed his probable regression), and has continued to drop since his first two starts of the season where nothing really clicked, but once it did, he has allowed 3 ER in a start ONCE in the last 18 starts.  Still, the Marlins have only been 13-7 in his starts, losing four starts where he gave up 2 runs or less, three of them within his last seven starts.  And lucky us, we get to face him this series, payback for missing aces in prior series.

In any case, Matt Cain drew the short straw and will be facing him, and that will make the series tough to win for that reason, we will need Cain to have his A-game going, if we are to have any chance of winning that game.

Game 1:  Ricky Nolasco vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  Nolasco reached a milestone in his last start, collecting his 50th career win, making him second all-time in Marlins history. He gave up two runs in eight innings while striking out eight against the Rockies. He suffered a loss to the Giants in Miami on May 6.

Giants:  The Giants own a 12-8 record in Zito's starts. They've been particularly fortunate in his six career starts against Florida, winning each game. Typically a strong second-half pitcher, Zito has recorded a 1.17 ERA in his two starts since the All-Star break.

Nolasco has been a good starter in his career, so this will be a tough game for the Giants.  However, his ERA for the season is 4.50, as he has had a tough season, despite walking so few and striking out a lot relative to that, and his BABIP is not that bad, though a tad high, not enough to explain why his ERA is so high.  His problem has always been giving up the homerun ball, and that has cost him apparently, as he is showing that his 2009 is the season that is more his talent level, and not 2008.  But he does pitch better on the road, with a 4.18 ERA this season, and he shut them out in his one start in AT&T in 2008, again, a season that appears to be a fluke plus our lineup is much different now..

Zito has a great history against the Marlins and a great history in the second half of the season, after the All-Star break, plus has been great so far.  Have to give this to Zito, for as good as Nolasco has been previously, I think all the factors point to a Giants win for this game, a good way to start any series.

Game 2:  Josh Johnson vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  Thirteen and counting. JJ is riding a string of 13 straight starts without allowing more than two runs. He has given up one run in 12 1/3 innings since the break, but he comes off a no-decision, in which he allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings to the Rockies, fanning 11.

Giants:  Cain's coming off an impressive performance at Arizona, where he allowed three hits in eight shutout innings. His nine strikeouts matched a season high. Cain is 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA at home, compared with 3-5, 3.50 on the road.

As I noted above, the Giants will have their hands full against Johnson.  Luckily, the Marlins offense has been as bad in supporting their ace as the Giants been in supporting their great starters.  Similarly, it has either been an avalanche of runs (6 starts with 7 or more runs; 3 of them 10 runs or more) or nothing much (10 starts with 3 or less runs; 7 of them 2 runs or less), which is why they are only 13-7 in his starts.  

With Cain going, it should be another tough game for Johnson again, but given that Cain has had a - still great - 2.63 at home, while Johnson has had a 2.70 ERA previously in AT&T, but yet those were in seasons before his breakout this season, and now his road ERA is 2.00 this season, vs. 3.07 for his career, clearly Johnson has taken a big step forward this season.  I have to give Johnson the win for this start, particularly since Matty seems to have bad luck regarding the Giants offense supporting him.

Game 3:  Alex Sanabia vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  If his first three big league starts are any indictation, Sanabia has the ability to pitch out of trouble. He has an 0.69 ERA in those games. His WHIP is 1.69 as a starter. He's given up 16 hits, walked six and hit a batter in 13 innings.

Giants:  Sanchez experienced a bizarre five-inning outing at Arizona last Friday. He continually pitched from the stretch, resulting from four hits allowed and five walks, but struck out 10 and yielded only one run.

Sanabia has been great this season.  But he has not been that great in the minors previously, this is his first good season ever, really, he appears to be very lucky this season.  Still, that does not mean that it won't continue against the Giants, he could have finally figured out that pitch he needs to succeed in the majors and is using it to good effect so far.  However, there is a huge anomaly in that he found it relatively hard to strike out AA hitters this season while striking out major leaguers relatively easily, which should reveal itself at some point in the majors, unless he literally figured out this new pitch within the last month.  But based on his minor league splits (you'll have to input his name if you click the link), if anything, AA hitters were figuring him out, his ERA was still low but his K/9 was dropping each month.

Sanchez has a 3.00 ERA at home this season, and Whiteside just seems to do magic working with Sanchez, as Jonathan's ERA is so low with Whiteside while way high with anyone else, including Posey so far in admittedly two starts, but still 2.69 with Whiteside for his career, 5.59 with Posey, so his best chance of winning is with Whiteside catching, clearly.  He has never pitched against the Marlins at home.

So this game is a coin flip, at best.  Sanabia has been doing very well but he's still relatively new to this and he was so bad previously in the minors that Baseball America did not even include him in their list of RHP starters for Florida's 2010 top prospects list, let alone rank him in their Top 30.  Again, that does not mean he is not the real deal now, but just that he will have to prove himself in each and every start.  

But there are warning signs that he's been lucky so far.  Apparently, his high strikeouts is because of his relief work this season, his strikeout rate is much lower as a starter.  And his GB/FB ratio is 0.63, indicating a lot of flyballs, and yet his X/H% is a low 5%.  

But that might be because he has a high infield fly rate of 17%, which is Zito's average for his career, so that is a very good rate and most probably the main reason for his success this season.  But clearly, this is something new for him relative to the rest of his career, so he will have to prove that he can keep this up.  Zito was that good early in his career, then was much lower for six seasons, before getting it back up high again this season.  

I think a coin flip is the most fair way to assess this game.  It does not look good because Sanabia has been on a tear since becoming a starter for the Marlins, and yet, Sanchez has pitched pretty well himself on occasion, particularly with Whiteside starting at C, so our best chance of winning will be with Whiteside starting at C and Posey starting at 1B, which will cost Ishikawa a start as the starter is a RHP, but with Posey hitting the way he is, you can't sit him much.

Game 4:  Anibal Sanchez vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  Sanchez was in line for his eighth win when he took the mound last Saturday. But after a three-run lead disappeared, he was not involved in the decision. The team is closely watching his innings pitched. He has 115 1/3 right now after throwing 86 a year ago.

Giants:  This will be Bumgarner's first start at home since June 26, when he made his season debut for the Giants in an Interleague affair against Boston. Since then, Bumgarner has recorded a 1.87 ERA in five road starts, winning the past four in a row.

Sanchez is the second best starter in the Marlin's rotation.  They forgot to note that he also had 26 innings in the minors in 2009 as well, so he's roughly at the workload he had last season, but still in a gray area in terms of usage, as to when he would tire, so they might pull him sooner than later, putting us into their bullpen sooner, which should be the goal for this series as the bullpen's ERA is 4.43.  His numbers are better than his peripherals, but he's been much worse on the road this season, 4.75 ERA.  He pitched OK against the Giants earlier this season at home, 6 IP, gave up 5 hits and 1 walk, struck out 3, gave up 3 runs with 2 earned, but now face them in AT&T, where they have one of the best home records, so he'll have a tougher battle here in SF.  

Meanwhile, Bumgarner has been pretty good overall and very good during the surge, all on the road.  Now he returns to home cooking, which should also portend another good start.  He could also be tiring soon as well, but he has pitched great so far for the Giants.  Should be a Giants win.

Giants Thoughts

Exciting times to be a Giants fan.  With their 15-3 surge, they are now only 3 games behind San Diego and took lead for the wild card spot, and in fact has a 1.5 game lead there now.  The D-gers are 3 games behind us and D-Rox 4.5 games behind us, which, while not a secure lead, nonetheless, we were behind both of them coming out of the All-Star break, 

The offense has led the way with Buster Posey leading the way.  The offense has averaged 5.7 runs since the surge began, and 4.5 runs since the All-Star break.  While Huff has been our stud most of the season - Baseball-Reference.com's front page shows Huff as 4th in NL in WAR overall, just behind A-Gon - Posey has been on an absolute tear in July, batting .469/.511/.815/1.326, 7 HR in 81 AB, with an 18 game hit streak, which is now the second longest in SF Giants history for rookies, behind only Willie McCovey's 22 game hit streak and just passing Orlando Cepeda's 17 game hit streak.

Posey has been incredible.  He has three 4-hit games in July and 12 multi-hit games.  His only oh-fer in July was on July 3rd.  I just watched the video showing him in yesterday's 4-hit game, and as Kruk and Kuip were marveling in it, he was just putting a hitting clinic in that game.  He has a beautiful stroke.  And he might not only win the Rookie-of-the-Month award, he might just get the regular one as well.  And his hitting has to have put his name up there with Jason Heyward and other contenders for the Rookie-of-the-Year Award, which he normally would have no chance for, given how late he was brought up, but given his significance during this Giants surge, he ought to be on the radar now for voters.

Not that the pitching hasn't been it's usual great way.  The pitching had a 2.61 ERA in the 18-game surge, and taking the cue from the offense's explosion at the beginning of the month, it took a step up and had a 2.34 ERA since the All-Star break, which countered the drop in offensive production and continued the winning.  And mirroring the lead by young Posey, Madison Bumgarner, who has been great since joining the rotation with a 2.43 ERA overall, has been great during the surge, with a 1.35 ERA, 4-0 record, 26.1 IP, giving up only 21 hits and 8 walks, while striking out 21.  

NL West View

But while this is all great, the 'Dres have been annoyingly good during the surge.  They are 9-6 since July 5th, with their offense finally turning on and scoring a lot of runs, 6.0 to be exact, even higher than the Giants, and 7-2 since the All-Star break.  The Giants could only gain one game on them with their 9-2 record since the break.

One thing that should work in our favor for the rest of the season is that San Diego has played 5 less games on the road than the Giants have while the Giants have played 3 less home games.  That should get us at least one game closer in the standings, if not two.  And given that the Giants are playing much better with Posey in the lineup starting as C, we should be right in the hunt with them fighting for the NL West division title for the rest of the season.  

However, San Diego passed their first test on the road well, going 4-2 against the Braves and Pirates over the past week.  They are back home but still have 17 of their next 26 on the road, including 4 games in LA and 3 games in SF.  Unfortunately, they also have 6 games against AZ and Pittsburgh, so there will be some easy games as well.  The Pirates could not even pull off one win, which would have put the 'Dres at .500 with 3-3, they were swept by SD.

I think the other teams will continue to struggle.  LA will probably continue to fall, as they struggle to find a 5th starter and Manny continues to spend time on the DL.  They have also played 7 more home games and 7 less road games than we have, so the Giants should put further distance between them and the D-gers due to that as well.

Colorado should have Tulowitski coming back soon, and they have traditionally been a second half team, so those are good things for them, but Ubaldo has finally hit the wall of regression to the mean:  after a 1.15 ERA into late June, over a span of 6 starts, he has had an ERA of 7.64 since June 23, with only one start where he allowed less than 4 runs.  Still, D-Rox are a strong offensive team and scored enough runs that he was 3-3 in that very bad streak.  And Colorado is searching for both a 4th and 5th starter who can hold their own against a strong pitching rotation.  

Giants Are New and Improve Compare to Before

And people need to remember that this is a different Giants team now versus before, so they cannot judge them against how they were in April or even May.  Posey and Bumgarner are two key differences, obviously, in making that happen, but also because it has allowed other players opportunities to shine, particularly Travis Ishikawa.  Once he started getting starts, he has hit .360/.389/.460/.849 with 1 HR in 50 AB, but more importantly, only 7 SO, plus 3 walks, in 20 games but 12 starts.  He has 14 RBIs in his nice streak.

Also importantly, Andres Torres has been hot atop the order.  In 20 games, 18 starts, he hit .278/.345/.633/.978 with 6 HR in 79 AB in July.  He still had 21 strikeouts, so that's not good, but with all those homers, that helps mitigate that, and allowed him to drive in 16 runs during the month.  That helped counter a further slumping Freddy Sanchez, who was killing us in the two-spot until Bochy dropped him lower and put Renteria up there.  

And, of course, our starting pitching rotation has continued to be superb.  No one to really highlight beyond Bumgarner, because they all have been doing that great on an overall basis, helped out by the bullpen, of course.  This is the wonders of having a great rotation, top to bottom, that I've been preaching about for years now.  

With Bumgarner's ascension, the rotation is complete, though, as El Lefty Malo noted a while back, who knows how much longer we will have Madison in the rotation this season, given his youth and lack of innings pitched previously in a full season.  Bumgarner says that he's strong enough to go 200 innings, and the Giants have said that they will play it by ear with him, they will not necessarily cap his innings pitched, but rather play it game to game and see where his body is at, which I prefer anyway over an arbitrary number of innings pitched.  

Still, the odds are that, at least for this season, we will probably see Wellemeyer taking Bumgarner's spot in the rotation at some point (most probably home since Wellemeyer has only pitched well in SF for us so far).  I still like my 6 man rotation idea, as that helps relieve some load off all our young starters, but right now the Giants look to maximize their chances in the playoffs, which probably means that Bumgarner will occasionally miss a home start to Wellemeyer and see some time in the bullpen at some point.

Angel's Take D-Backs

Have to take note here on Arizona trading away Dan Haren to the Angels:  I think they got took in the deal, like they did the deal more to save money than to get talent back, which is good because that means that they are probably re-building for the next 3-5 years, and we won't have to worry about them battling for the title.  Seems that way with this trade for a some now and some later.

Joe Saunders is the established vet in the deal, he replaces Haren in the rotation as a decent replacement, but he's even older than Haren.  They also got Rafael Rodriguez (unrated by Baseball America), a reliever who has been pitching on and mostly off for the Angels the past two seasons, and Patrick Corbin (ranked 12th best prospect in Angels farm system pre-season) and a PTBNL, though I've seen one rumor say that it will be Tyler Skaggs (8th).   Corbin has had an OK season in A-ball, but a 3.87 ERA there is not that great.  Skaggs, if he indeed is the PTBNL, would be the prized prospect, he's only 18 but doing better than Corbin in A-ball, though both are young (Corbin in only 20 YO).  Skaggs strikes out a lot, walks little, and at an age much younger than the competition.  They are both viewed as only middle of rotation starters by Minor League Baseball Analyst, but given what Skaggs has done in A-ball this season, I have to view him as above that.

But the key thing to me is that none of them are a potential Dan Haren.  That is quite a come down from all the players they originally traded away for Haren, which included Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, and Chris Carter, though of course they got 2.5 seasons out of Haren before trading down.  They took a big hit on talent, particularly for a player like Haren who would be the ace of most rotations, as they basically got a handful of middle rotation innings eaters plus a reliever, with only Skaggs (and he's not a sure thing yet) as a potential plus starter for them.

Giants Trade Rumors

And to all the trade rumors I've been seeing:  just say No, unless the Giants give up someone they no longer believe in.  Sabean has already said that nobody in the rotation will be traded, so that is a relief.  The latest rumor has the Giants kicking tires with the Marlins regarding Jorge Cantu.  Previous targets David DeJesus and Cory Hart, suffered bad injuries - DeJesus could be out for the season - and thus should be passed on.

Cantu might be cheaper to trade for because he's a free agent after the season, but the Rangers are looking into his cost right now as well and appears more aggressive about this being "the" year, probably because their young players are still mostly unproven and so this year is the year to win it with all their older players because the Angels are suffering a rare down season, while the Giants are currently jelling together for many years of playoff chases.  The hottest rumor is the Orioles LHP reliever Will Ohman, though I would note that the White Sox has a hot young LHP reliever named Erick Threets, former Giants prospect, who has been shut-out great so far this in, like, 7 appearances.  Sure could use him now, I wonder how much we would have to give up to get him back?

Thoughts on Marlin's Series

Lastly, this series will be tough to win since four games mean going at least 3-1, and Johnson gives them a great chance for at least one game, and another game is a coin flip plus for the other two games, you never know.  It would take a lot of hot hitting to continue the winning stretch.  And I have a feeling some blown games by the bullpen would figure into it as well.

Breaking even seems very doable, but would be a let down after this great stretch of great play.  However, we can't expect the Giants to play at such a lofty level for the rest of the season, at some point they will slow down and that's when the other NL West teams will try to take advantage.   But after this great winning streak, I can live with that.

Giants Mystery Solved? The Curious Case of Andres Torres and Maybe Juan Uribe

When the Giants added Andres Torres and Juan Uribe to the team at the start of the 2009 season, it got a huge collective yawn from the Giants fandom.  Torres was a career journeyman, heck, he didn't even play enough in the majors to be considered that, he was a career minor leaguer who flashed great speed and defense but not enough hitting to stick in the majors.  The quintessential AAAA player, like Calvin Murray or Jason Ellison.  Uribe was an all-glove, no-hit except that he could hit HRs, but not enough to have a decent OPS.  To most, they were battling to be the 25th man on the roster.

But since the 2009 season began, both Andres Torres and Juan Uribe has been arguably two of our most important hitters on our team.  How did that happen?  How did this transformation come to be?  Perhaps it is clear now, based on what I've read yesterday about Torres's development.

Teddyball Case Study

Fangraphs recently had a great article on Torres, how he would be the starting OF in the All-Star game if the players were selected by WAR (Wins Over Replacement:  a metric for measuring how valuable a player is to his team, covering hitting and defense).  But what was more interesting was a comment by someone regarding how Torres learned to hit, which provided a link to the story of how Torres worked with this expert on the internet on rotational hitting.

By the time line in that story, he happened to learn the "proper" way to hit just before joining the Giants.  That would explain why the Torres we have is nothing like the Torres that was clearly a AAAA hitter.  That would explain why he has been consistently hitting about the same from last season to this season, this is his new profile as a hitter, a plus hitter who can play great defense in the outfield.

An interesting thing is that what the expert taught Torres is basically Ted Williams's techniques for hitting.  How to swing the bat, waiting for your pitch, not swinging at all on balls out of the strike zone.  I was reading through this article, thinking, "gosh, that sounds just like what Ted Williams taught in his great book, the Science of Hitting" and lo and behold, the expert, Chris O'Leary, said that Williams was the first to describe it.  According to the expert, most major leaguers use this swing to be a productive hitter in the majors.  All the things that many hitting instructors teach - squish the bug, swinging linearly, slapping the ball - are not what major league hitters do.

A Mandatory Giants Way Chapter?

And that struck me:  what if the difference between MLB hitters and AAAA hitters is that they know this rotational method and the AAAA hitters don't.   What if a lot of our batters are not hitting correctly?  I know that is what hitting instructors are for, but maybe if it is a chapter in the Giants Way manual, then players would take it more seriously.

But, for now, what if Torres is passing along his tips on hitting to his Latino compadres?  So that got me thinking, could Torres have passed on some tips to Uribe that helped him out in 2009 and now 2010?   He is another hitter on the Giants who is hitting way better than he had before, could he have learned some of the tips that Torres got?  Possibly.

Et Tu Uribe?

Last season, Juan Uribe's batting ratios appeared to be about the same as usual for him, SO%, BB%, but he was a bit lucky on the extra-base hits and homers, and very lucky on his BABIP.  All signs that last season was just an outlier in his career, no reason to give him a huge raise and a starting position.  And that is what all the teams thought, so he decided to sign up with the Giants for another season.

This year, however, despite his BABIP falling more into his career range, he is still hitting well.  Why?  First and foremost, his walk rate is sky high, much higher than it has ever been in his career, 8.0% vs. prior high of 6.3% in 2005 and career 5.4% average.  In addition, he has reduced the number of strikeouts, though minimally and within range of his career, but still good at 17.0%, which is still 3rd best in his 10 season career. and best since 2005-2006.

He has also boosted his rate of homerun hitting to 21.2 AB/HR, which is as good as his great season in 2004, despite hitting more groundballs than flyballs and boosting his HR/FB ratio from the roughly 10% he did before to the 11.3% he currently has.  And a big area of reduction there is him hitting much less infield fly balls, which are pretty much automatic outs, and hitting more grounders that fall in for hits instead.  Plus that means that there are more flyballs going for HRs instead of outs, with his GB/FB and GO/AO much more tilted towards flyballs than before.

Is He For Real?

Is this real?  Looks good so far, but many a player have been lucky over a short season before.  However, he was lucky last year as well.  How long does he need to play before he is not so much lucky as just good?  I would say the rest of the season, though new saber techniques can determine faster based on how he bats, using the stats on Fangraphs, only I haven't learned how to do that yet.

He definitely needs to keep on walking more.  And it is not like he's getting more IBB, he has as much as he ever has, one for the season, and he typically get 0, 1, or 2.  So his bump up in walks is real in that it isn't artificially boosted by teams walking him more, but by him taking more walks.

And he has to continue to not strike out as much, as well as continuing to hit the ball hard and not make outs while hitting more homers.  One of the tenets that O'Leary was teaching to Torres was Ted Williams's idea of hitting the ball hard because hard-hit balls are harder for the defense to field, meaning you get more hits and for more power.  Torres certainly has taken that lesson to heart, he has been hitting for average, taking walks to boost his OBP, and hitting for power.  Uribe seems to be doing more of all that, though not enough to say for certain yet.

Still, last season and this season are his second and third best seasons as a hitter, playing in a park that is basically hitter neutral but does hurt HR power hitters normally (but not him so far), even though he played all of his career before in a clear hitter's park in Chicago, and particularly for getting extra homeruns.  I would have to assume that if each season were adjusted for a neutral park, his two seasons in SF are the two best seasons he has ever had in the majors, and still a far leap above what he did in the seasons leading up to him joining the Giants.

Uribe in 2011?

And if he continues to hit this well, he will probably get a multi-year (no more than 2 years with an option though) contract from the Giants to start at SS for 2011-2012, with Crawford hopefully ready for the majors in 2012-2013.  And Renteria almost assuredly is only playing two seasons for us, though the way he hit when he was healthy for us, he's probably going to get another big contract (just not as big as the one we gave) from someone else.  Probably something similar to what Mark DeRosa got if he continues hitting.