Uribe Signing with D-gers: 3 years, $21M pending physical

The bad news is that the D-gers signed Juan Uribe to a reported/tweeted 3 year, $21M contract (see details at ExtraBaggs).  It is pending him passing the physical, so unless there is some bad news there, he should be bleeding D-ger blue next season.  I can't wish well to anyone who is a D-ger, though Juan is certainly a strong test case.  I don't blame him for going though, that's a lot of money and who knows whether he'll get another chance at such a contract.  He "only" made $4.25M with the Giants the past two seasons. That's 21 million different ways of happy. 

Still, this is probably up there with Johnny Damon going from the Red Sox to the Yankees, though worse because of the long history of the Uribe name in Giants history (Jose Uribe will always be THE Uribe for the Giants, unlike what AJ Pierzitski thought, that SF stole that from Chicago, what a historian he is; ironically, Jose is truly the player to be named later, as his name was Jose Gonzalez when we got him in trade for Jack Clark, the only player to have any eventual significance for us from the trade, but he decided to go with his mother's maiden name because there were so many Jose Gonzalezs already in pro baseball.  So it is only befitting because Jose Uribe is so unique, a one of a kind guy).

Giants Thoughts

The good news it that the Giants did not match the offer.  That's just too much for him for what the Giants need.  Juan's OK as a shortstop, but 2 years at $6M per at best, as reward for the 2010 season.  The extra year is just too rich for my blood and then you top it off by going to $7M.  No thank you, but thanks for a great 2010 season.  And I think D-ger fans will start "Boo"-ribaying him at some point because right-handed hitters do poorer HR-wise in D-ger Stadium, it is just harder for them to hit homers there (while easier for lefties). 

I think the Giants offense will be fine without Uribe in 2010.  The "Someone new everyday" offense will continue to function fine, in fact, it should even be better because 1) Bumgarner pitches full season (meaning even less offense needed to win), 2) Posey plays full season, 3) Ross here all season (meaning less Rowand), 4) Torres starts full season (meaning less Rowand), 5) Sandoval should return to Panda-mojo status, and 6) we already signed Huff back.  Torres, Franchez, Huff, Posey, Ross, Sandoval, plus OF and SS is a pretty good top of lineup, better if Burrell comes back as starting LF and hit as well, outstanding if Sandoval can reach 2010 levels of production.

And the pitching, which was basically MLB best (I think we ended up 2nd by barest of margins), should duplicate its 2010 season (or better).  Cain and Sanchez had great seasons, but any downside for them are balanced by Lincecum looking so dominant with his new slider and having Bumgarner instead of Wellemeyer for half a season;  Zito has pitched about the same the past two seasons, probably do about as well again. 

Plus, the bullpen should be even better, the Giants spent the first half of the season trying to find relievers who could deliver and only Casilla delivered outside of regulars Wilson and Romo, plus Affeldt was struggling.  Then Moto did OK, then Ray, and lastly Lopez and Ramirez were acquired, before Affeldt finally returned to 2009 goodness, and now the bullpen looks stellar with Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, and presumably Ray (former closer getting over surgery; could finally be healthy in 2011) and Ramirez (some speculate that one or the other might be non-tendered but I don't see that happening).

For SS, I've seen many names mentioned as possibilities, either signing or trading for, most noted in Baggerly:  Derek Jeter, Orlando Hudson, Miguel Tejada, Cesar Izturiz, JJ Hardy, Jason Barlett, others I've seen include Marco Scutaro and Jose Reyes.  Not that I think Crawford will ever be that great a shortstop, but I would rather not get anyone with big money attached, particularly in trade, because that would probably require the Giants giving up some talent, particularly pitching talent. 

The Giants are nicely loaded in pitching but it takes only one or two injuries or poor performances, particularly after pitching more innings than ever before in 2010 by going deep into the playoffs, to make the Giants scramble to replace pieces.  A trade of significant prospects would steal our depth, which is shallow right now (only Runzler is a possible backup starter for 2011 season right now) and would only get worse.  If we can get away with lesser prospects, though, I would be OK with that.

Therefore, I would prefer to sign a free agent SS (and some might be non-tendered, like Hardy and Barlett, and become free agents) on the low side, who can play good defense (like Barlett or Izturiz).  Hardy would be OK since he's like Uribe providing power from SS.  Luckily, in the lineup I described above, we don't need to get offense from the SS position as he would probably bat 8th and for most 8th place hitters, any offense is a plus, just not expected. 

And that is particularly so if Sandoval delivers as I expect him to, meaning a return to 2009 levels, and force his way up to the middle of the lineup (probably 5th), or if Belt delivers as I expect him to eventually, meaning something along the lines of Sandoval's 2008 or, dare we dream, 2009, which I think he's capable of, and which would push him also into consideration for middle of lineup duties.  Our lineup can be monster if Sandoval and Belt hits as I expect along with Huff and Posey in the middle, plus Torres up top.

Side Note:  Posey Awarded Again

Also today, Buster Posey was named to the 52nd Annual Topps Major League Rookie All-Star Team, after being named NL Rookie of the Year two weeks ago (which I forgot to note with a post).  He beat out Atlanta's Jason Heyward easily for the ROY award, gaining 20 first place votes to only 9 for Heyward, despite "only" playing for about 4 months of the season.  Buster was "humbled" by the recognition, befitting his modest and humble manner.  Makes you want to just give him a big hug and say "you big lug!"

He was on every ballot (each voters only gets to vote 1-2-3) except for one, who left him off because he did not play the full season (the guy actually voted for Gaby Sanchez for 1st; he even shafted Jason Heyward too).  Even if he weren't a Giants rookie, I don't see how one could do that, that's like saying quantity matters more than quality.  Luckily, that was just his personal code of conduct, the rules are actually quite vague about what to consider when awarding ROY.

Posey joins a list of Giants greats and very goods:  Willie Mays (1951), Orlando Cepeda (1958), Willie McCovey (1959), Juan Marichial (1962), John "the Count" Montefusco (1975), and Gary Mathews (1976).  He also became the first catcher to win a ROY award and a World Series championship in the same season. 

I loved this column by Gary Peterson of the Mercury (his column has been a welcome addition in the past year, I like his writing and this thoughts), here is an excerpt: 

Now, with the advantage of hindsight voters didn't have, it seems a no-brainer. Start with this: Posey became just the fifth National League Rookie of the Year to help his team win the World Series. And by help we mean:

Leading the Giants in hits in the first-round win over Atlanta; tying for second on the team with three RBIs in the NLCS dethroning of Philadelphia; batting .300 with a homer in the World Series; blocking balls in the dirt; throwing out would-be base stealers; acting as a reassuring, mature-beyond-his-years presence for Giants pitchers.

Unprecedented contributions from a rookie? You could make that argument. Fernando Valenzuela won three postseason games (one in the World Series) for the Dodgers in 1981. Dustin Pedroia, Derek Jeter and Chuck Knoblauch were in the thick of championship postseasons for the Red Sox, Yankees and Twins in 2007, 1996 and 1991.

But none of the above consistently batted third or cleanup. None was so intimately involved with every pitch of every game. Posey played every inning of the postseason. If you don't believe us, ask backup catcher Eli Whiteside. The only time he made it off the bench was for the end-of-series pig pile at the pitcher's mound.

There's a reason there are only nine catchers among the 128 players who have been honored as Rookie of the Year since 1947. Catching is tough stuff. To ask a young player to catch at an elite level for a championship team is just begging for trouble.

It got the Giants a shiny gold trophy.

I couldn't agree more.  Congrats to Buster Posey for his awards, clearly there will be many more in future seasons.  Amazing what leadership he's already providing, he said this at the SF Giants 2010 World Series Championship Celebration Parade and he repeated it when he spoke on winning the ROY:  “Let’s try to do it again next year.”  We Giants fans are truly blessed to have him on our team, leading our team. 

Your 2010 Giants are 86-67: Dashing D-Rox Hopes

The Giants pitching staff continued their historic run of 17 straight starts keeping the other team from scoring over 3 runs (previous high of 16 games was by 1981 Oakland A's and 1972 Cleveland Indians since the live ball era began in 1920 and the longest since the 1917 Chicago White Sox had a 20 game streak, during the dead ball era).  The Giants with any modicum of consistent scoring could have been on a 17 game win streak, but still, they are 11-6 during the streak and have taken first place again from the 'Dres and has the same record as the Braves, which currently leads the wild-card race.  We knew going into September that we will win by pitching and sometimes lose because our hitters didn't do enough, this is not something new.

Meanwhile, the 'Dres have been keeping about even with us, only a half game back.  They are 4-4 since the Giants took them 3-1 on the road in their homepark.   Now the D-Rox hope to do something similar to the Giants as SF goes into Colorado for three.

But D-Rox has gone 4-6 in their last 10 games, as Tulowitski's historic 14 homers in 15 games (only had happened three times in history) stretch fades in their memory and performance, and they have fallen back to 3.5 games behind the Giants by losing 4 in a row and getting swept by the D-backs.  With 9 games left, they can be eliminated by the Giants if SF wins plus COL losses equal 6 - meaning if the Giants can finish 6-3, they eliminate D-Rox, so in all likelihood, they are playing out the string.

But the 'Dres pretty much had the NL West until they faded and the Giants surged to finally catch them by winning that series in SD, and now the D-Rox is hoping to revive their playoff hopes by sweeping the Giants.  And that is realistically what they have to do.  Winning 2-1 only gets them to 2.5 games back:  that won't do it for them, as that would take 2 games off the 6 D-Rox got to be eliminated.  And they are pretty much gone if the Giants win the series 2-1, leaving only 2 games to elimination for D-Rox.

They really need to sweep the Giants to have any realistic chance of making the playoffs.  But they will have to beat the Giants'best:  Lincecum, Zito, and Cain.  And, ironically, some uninformed people might point out that Lincecum has the 4th best ERA on the team and say otherwise.  Also, let's see if the humidor ball rumor (they give those balls to visiting teams to hit against, live balls for their team to hit against) is true or not this series.

Game 1:  Jhoulis Chacin vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:

Giants:  With the offense struggling, Lincecum was pinch-hit for in the fifth inning of his last start against the Brewers. He also took his first lost of September, as a bloop single drove in two runs. He is 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA against Colorado this season.

D-Rox:  Chacin didn't issue a walk in a start for the first time in his career Saturday in an eight-inning shutout effort against Los Angeles. He could become the first Rockies rookie to finish with an ERA below 4 and at least 120 innings pitched.

Going to be a tough game, both pitchers are at the top of their game.  Chacin is 2-0, 1.93 ERA against the Giants in his career, but 4.50 ERA in one start at home against the Giants, as he has had a good rookie season.  Lincecum has been ordinary in Colorado, 4.39 ERA in 7 career starts there, but that is probably pretty good in this offensive oriented park.  I would have to lean towards The Kid for this one, but Chacin is pretty good too.  Bring it on!

Game 2:  Jason Hammel/TBA vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

Giants:  As a fly-ball pitcher who lacks a steamy fastball, Zito would figure to struggle at Coors Field. Yet he's a respectable 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and a .227 opponents' batting average in six Coors starts.

D-Rox:  None

Hammel has been battling a case of deadarm so even though he is the announced starter, they most probably will be looking to throw up somebody against the Giants instead.  For all those people who have been complaining that the Giants MUST trade away one of their starters to get a hitter, because other teams are fine with a lousy 5th starter, this is what other teams have to deal with when they have a lousy 5th starter.

As noted above, Zito has been a master in Coors despite, which they did not mention, the fact that most pitchers that rely on breaking pitches cannot figure out how to do well in Coors.  In an article I read about the humidor rumor, a pitcher noted that he can tell the difference between the two balls:  the humidor balls are harder and not as soft, allowing the pitcher to be able to grip the ball better and do more with it with breaking pitches.  So what Zito has done here is amazing!  

However, it should be noted that he did a lot of that when he was struggling to perform for the Giants, and that this season, when he seems to have returned to his career norms, he got blasted in his start here earlier this season, giving up 6 runs in 5.1 IP.

But given that the D-Rox are unsure who will start, and if Hammel started, we should easily beat up on him, I will give the lean to Zito on this one, as he has righted his boat in recent games, and when he was blasted by the D-Rox earlier, he was in a down period of the season, he appears to lose his bearings every once in a while, but when he is locked in, he shuts down the other team:  in 32 starts, he has allowed more than 3 ER in a game 9 times, so in over 70% of his starts, the other team has scored 3 ER or less against him.  This should be the Giants win that puts another few more nails into the D-Rox's coffin.

Game 3:  Jorge De La Rosa vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Cain has been San Francisco's most effective starter in the second half. The Giants have won 11 of his 13 outings since the All-Star break. He has exceeded 200 innings for the fourth year in a row.

D-Rox:  De La Rosa gave up just his third home run to a left-handed hitter this season, a two-run Kelly Johnson shot, in his last start. But that truly hurt in a 3-1 loss to the D-backs. Still, De La Rosa threw seven innings and gave up three runs.

Cain has been the man!  All season, consistently pitching, he has taken another step in his development and maturation as a starter.  He has a 3.64 ERA in 8 starts there, and his results have been mostly good there, except for blowouts he suffered in his first and second full seasons.  Otherwise, he has had good outings in the  last three starts he has had there, and five out of his last six.  It should be another good one for him.

De La Rosa is like their version of Jonathan Sanchez, only not as good, and not as healthy.  He missed a number of games this season (over a third) and his home ERA is an unhealthy 5.25 over his career, though it is only 4.06 this season, which is a bit flukey because his road ERA is a 4..44.  So he has not pitched particularly well at home previously in his career, whereas Cain has been pretty good in 6 of his 8 starts there.  And Colorado has been scuffling in recent games, though that is partly because they are built to win at home and not on the road, and they have been on the road for a while.

I would lean towards the Giants because of Cain's dominance and steadiness, but note that De La Rosa has been part of the D-Rox's surge:  since he returned in early August, in 10 starts he has a 3.60 ERA and they have gone 7-3 with him starting.  Should be a good match between two good pitchers.

Giants Thoughts

First, what a game Bumgarner pitched against the Cubs!  For those not aware, Wrigley Field can be a launching pad when the wind is blowing out like it was yesterday, and the Giants took advantage of that, blasting out four homers (though I heard that one of Uribe's would have been a homer anyway).  However, Bumgarner threw a shut-out 7 innings with 9 K's and only 1 BB (7 hits) in that wind tunnel, one of the most amazing pitching performances this season!  And he's still a 21 year old "baby"!

And that with the pressure of setting history if he could keep the Cubs from scoring 3 runs or more.  This historic streak of 17 (plus 22 games allowing 4 runs or less) demonstrates what I'm talking about when you have a rotation full of ace-type pitchers all pitching on sync (I guess Posey has learned how to handle a major league pitching staff!).  Sure, you can have one hitter on a hot streak helping you, but one hitter can only do so much.  So can only one pitcher, but when you have five starters capable of doing this, you make it that much easier for your team to win games in the short run and the long run.  And with only 9 more games to play, they are on the brink of paying off big time, with a playoff berth

The Others In the Way

Now the Giants face the D-Rox in Colorado, and basically the pressure is all on Colorado because if they don't sweep, the odds are against them coming back and getting into the playoffs, unless two teams among the Giants, 'Dres, and Braves collapse.  We see your historic Tulo 14 homers in 15 games and raise you a historic17 games of 3 runs or less (and 13 of those games were 2 runs or less).  Plus, they will end the season with 4 games in St. Louis, and they have been horrible on the road, going a lousy 31-46 whereas the Cards have the third best home record in the NL at 46-28.  

San Diego, meanwhile, will be home for 3 against the Reds, who is about to clinch the Central and would like to do it as soon as possible so that they can start figuring out their rotation (they have 5 or 6 starters they can turn to, not as great as the Giants, but still, they have some decisions to make) and adjusting the schedule to get them there. The Reds are one of the few teams with a winning record on the road, so they won't be pushovers.  Then they got 4 against the suddenly hot and tough Cubs that the Giants barely beat in Chicago.  All at home, but they will be lucky to be 4-3 during the stretch and could be 3-4 or worse, before heading to SF for the final series of the season.

The Braves are suddenly in the equation, after losing three straight to the Phillies to basically ensure the Phils get the NL East title, and has a 8-12 record to fall back to the pack of NL West teams.  They play three on the road with the Nats, who have been playing around .500 lately and at home for the season, so it is not like they will be easy to sweep.  Then the Braves are at home for the rest of the season, with 3 against Florida and 3 against the Phillies again.  The Marlins have been playing poorly lately, but .500 on the road, so I can see the Braves go 3-3 for those 6 games, then will be playing for their playoff life against the Phillies, who should have clinched by now, but even if not, should be keeping up the pressure so that they enter the playoffs on some sort of a roll.

Giants Destiny Literally In Their Hands:  How They Swing Their Bats

So the Giants look like they have their destiny in their hands, given the tough road to the playoffs that the other teams have.  They need to win just one in Colorado to kill the D-Rox's chances, then take care of the D-backs 2-1 at home (I know, not a given), to enter in the final series against SD basically in the position where the team that wins the series most probably wins the NL West title, though at that point, it could possibly lead to a tie if SD wins, whereupon there would be a one game playoff on Monday between the two teams and Bumgarner would be starting.

Baggarly reported in the link above that Bochy had a talk with the hitters before the game in the cramped visiting batting cage at Wrigley and the team responded, albeit boosted by the weather conditions (yet the Cubs were likewise, then, supposedly also boosted but were shut out).  The hitters need to prove in Colorado that they truly responded, though, of course, Coors is not a true test because it is still a hitter's park, humidor or no humidor.

Speaking of which, it was Jeremy Affeldt who remarked that he knew a humidor ball from a non-humidor ball.  Hopefully, he will teach his fellow Giants pitchers the nuances of that so that they can figure out for themselves on the mound whether they have a humidor ball or not, because if they can do that, they know what they can and cannot do with the ball, and make allowances for how they pitch when using that ball.  They could be more aggressive with the humidor ball, but more careful with the non-humidor ball.

One wild card I would put out there is Pablo Sandoval.  He has not been hitting at all, and has looked pretty horrible trying, from the accounts I have heard.  However, yesterday, in his PH appearance, he had a Panda-esque hit where the ball was low, out of the zone, and he stung it for a base hit.  Could be a wild card off the bench when we need some offense.

Also, the news is that Andres Torres is practicing and feeling good.  He could be ready to PH by Saturday, then could start soon afterward, once he feels ready.  He has been leery of a set-back, in his public statements, but Bochy has been much more positive that Torres would be back with the team this weekend.  Look like Bochy was right.

Huff and Puff and Blow the Humidor Down

I would also add this factoid from Andy Baggarly, who tweeted, "Aubrey Huff is 2-6 s/2 HRs off him," him being today's pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin.

Huff, heh, what more can one say about Huff Daddy?  Near-900 OPS for the season, 148 games played already, so he'll be around 155 games played.  25 home runs, 84 RBIs (so he should be near 30 HR and 100 RBI when all said and done), .381 OBP, plus leadership in the clubhouse and a down-to-earth, fun-loving attitude, that probably makes the clubhouse that much more fun and laid-back, which is important when you lose games that just sticks in your gut.  He's been scuffling for a week now and having a sub-par month so far, but nothing drastically bad, still OK production from him.

Posey for NL Rookie of the Year

But despite all that, basically the team's offense is being led by Buster Posey down the stretch.  Since the 11 inning squeaker the Giants won in extra innings on August 14 over San Diego, where it looked the 'Dres were going to shove Jonathan Sanchez's statement up the Giants collectives noses,  Buster has hit .310/.350/.574/.924 in 33 games (36 Giants games) with 8 HR in 129 AB, 23 RBI.

Meanwhile, he has guided the staff, which has been raving about him, to a historic streak in limiting runs allowed, thrown out numerous base stealers ("I ain't having that!"), and doing all this with the pressure of the team trying to make their first playoffs in 7 seasons, and dangerously close to not doing it if the Giants should blink and start playing badly.  And he has hit numerous key homers that has helped his team win games (7-1 when he hit a homer during this period), particularly that one in the 8th that won the game 1-0 for the Giants.

I get that he hasn't played all season, like Jaime Garcia and Jason Heyward, but both stats has faded a bit during the season, Garcia's team had faded off (and he's been extremely lucky, from a sabermetic viewpoint), as had Heyward, and Heyward has only batted 2nd most of the season, while Posey has batted 4th most of the season, particularly after he became the full-time catcher.  Seasonal lines:

Heyward:  81 runs, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .285/.400/.472/.873, 187 ISO, 4.6 WAR
B. Posey:  54 runs, 16 HR, 64 RBI, .323/.370/.524/.895, 201 ISO, 4.0 WAR

And undoubtedly his WAR is understated because sabermetrics has not caught up on the defensive side for catchers.  So their WAR is comparable (assuming his defense is worth about half a win at least) despite Heyward playing "2 more months" (which is incorrect, he might have started the season with the Braves, but he was on the DL for 3 weeks, so he has about one month more playing time than Posey).

And Garcia has been very lucky.  He has a 2.70 ERA but his FIP is 3.42 and his xFIP is 3.74.  His HR/FB is a low 7.4% (mean that pitchers regress to is 10%) and he has been horrible in September, when his team needed him most.  And I just saw a tweet on THT that states that the Cards have shut down Garcia for the season, so he's not playing the full season either, and, in fact, are missing critical games here, the Cards need to win every game to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.

Based on all this, I don't see why people are not seriously considering Posey for the NL ROY award.  And if Bumgarner had come up at the same time, he would probably be giving Posey a good run for the money on the award as well.  The Giants have been blessed with these two players.