Your 2024 Giants: Snellzilla Signed!

As reported widely, the Giants signed Blake Snell to a two-year contract for $62M, with an opt out.  They also split each season's contract roughly in half, with half paid one season, the rest paid as bonus two years later, spreading the cash flow over the next four years, essentially.  

Your 2018 Giants: Austin Jackson, Starting CF

Per many sources (here's CBS), the Giants have signed Austin Jackson to a two-year deal at $6M (which adds AAV of $3M, leaving the Giants maybe $1-2M under the CBT Penalty Threshold of $197M), with escalators that could push to $8.5M.

Your 2018 Giants: 40-man Roster Changes Ahead of Rule 5 Draft

In preparation for the Rule 5 draft, where teams can steal players from other teams who they think are ready, as they would need to be on the 25-man roster for the 2018 season, teams have tidied up their 40-man roster, placing guys on that they are afraid of losing and DFA-ing player they are not as afraid of losing.

The Giants added RHP Tyler Beede, C Aramis Garcia, RHP Tyler Herb, and LHP D.J. Snelten.

The Giants DFAed two middle infielders, Micah Johnson and Orlando Calixte, as well as RHP Dan Slania (who has cleared waivers; the news is at this link right now, but will be pushed down as other news comes in)

Your 2017 Giants: 40 Man Roster Additions to Protect from Rule 5 Draft

Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving!

Catching up on news, the Giants added five players to their 40-man roster.  Per the Giants website, they added five players to protect them from the Rule 5 draft:

• RHP Chase Johnson
• RHP Reyes Moronta
• RHP Dan Slania
• INF Miguel Gomez 
• Infielder-outfielder Orlando Calixte, who they had recently picked up as a free agent

As reported:

Johnson, 24, was rated San Francisco's 18th-best prospect by MLBPipeline.com. He finished 1-4 with a 3.27 ERA and five saves in 24 appearances (seven starts) for Double-A Richmond last season. 

Moronta, ranked 24th among the organization's prospects, struck out 93 batters and walked 20 in 59 innings for Class A Advanced San Jose last season. The 23-year-old went 0-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 60 appearances. 

Slania, 24, performed at three classifications last season: Class A Advanced, Double-A and Triple-A Sacramento. His combined record was 11-8 with a 2.93 ERA in 34 games (16 starts), including 111 strikeouts and 35 walks in 119 2/3 innings. 

Gomez, 23, batted a combined .330 in 109 games at Class A Augusta and San Jose. He totaled 17 home runs and 67 RBIs while compiling an .882 OPS. 

Calixte, 24, performed for Texas' Double-A affiliate and Kansas City's Triple-A outpost last season before the Giants acquired him. He batted a combined .274 with 19 stolen bases in 28 attempts.

These moves filled up the Giants 40-man roster.

Your 2016 Giants: 40-man Roster Gets Filled

The Giants added eight pitchers to their 40-man roster, filling it full with the following prospects:

• Ty Blach
• Clayton Blackburn
• Kyle Crick
• Ian Gardeck
• Adalberto Mejia
• Steve Okert
• Jake Smith
• Chris Stratton

Per SFGiants.com:

Six of the additions were ranked among the organization's Top 30 prospects: right-handers Kyle Crick (No. 6), Chris Stratton (14) and Clayton Blackburn (21), as well as left-handers Steven Okert (9), Adalberto Mejia (12) and Ty Blach (20). Also added -- and therefore protected from next month's Rule 5 Draft -- were right-handers Ian Gardeck and Jake Smith.

Reports by:

• Haft
• Pavlovic
• Baggarly

All good reads, as usual.

ogc thoughts

Congratulations to the new 40-man players!

First immediate thought is that some trade will happen in the next few weeks, probably by Winter GM meetings, definitely by the time when arbitration-eligible players would be non-tendered, because the 40-man roster is full, and the Giants are planning on adding at least one free agent starting pitcher, if not two, plus they said they are looking for a starting LF, and they also might be interested in players non-tendered by other teams.

Baggarly also noted the possibility of non-tendering one or more of our arbitration eligible players, noting Yusmeiro Petit and Hector Sanchez.  I would be surprised if Sanchez is, but the speculation has been swirling around Petit for a while now, so I would not be surprised if he's gone before the non-tender deadline via a trade.

A trade to get the players the Giants desire seems very possible.  Evans has already noted in at least two off-season press conferences that the Giants think that they might be able to add an upgrade to our pitching and/or our outfield via a trade.  As I noted in my previous posts, the Giants don't have enough money to get their upgrade #2 starter (and this is the opinion of many other people regarding securing a #2; I personally believe that Leake is capable of being that #2 starter for us) as well as sign Leake, who Evans committed to trying to sign in his last press conference (the Crawford signing).  So a trade is the most likely scenario for obtaining that second pitcher, assuming that Leake is the first pitcher.   And especially if the Giants somehow signs an ace level starter like Greinke or Price or Cueto, that would pretty much prevent the Giants from signing Leake unless they go over the penalty threshold, and would make a trade the most likely way to avoid the penalty and get that second starter.

Thoughts on pitchers:

• Ty Blach
• A crafty lefty, he lacks the overpowering stuff that teams like to see in a pitcher, but he has made it all the way to AAA and been able to do well climbing up one level at a time.  One thing I've been leaning on as an analytic device is how a player performs in the league while being younger than the league, especially significantly so (at least a year younger).  Recent studies have shown that players who can hold their own in a league, while younger, tend to have a greater chance of making the majors, as well as doing well in the majors.   This is a theme that will recur in my comments below.
• Blach was 2.8 younger than the average AAA player, yet his stat line was at or better than average in a number of categories.  One stat that I think carries better upward is BB/9 and while the average was 3.3 in AAA, he had a 1.7 BB/9, significantly better.  That helps him make due with a subpar 5.1 K/9, leading to a good 3.00 K/BB.  Because he's a SP, he's been building up his IP, and he had 165.1 IP last season, so he looks like he can be a good innings eater at minimum in the majors.  And given our age and history of injuries with Peavy and Cain, we need backups in AAA.  I don't think he's top of the list (Blackburn currently is, and if two SP are acquired, perhaps Heston becomes top of the list, if he's not traded away; more on that later) but good depth to have in the minors should a disaster happens again with multiple injuries and/or lack of performances.
• Clayton Blackburn
• Kind of a bookend to Blach, Blackburn is a crafty righty (a rarer breed in that this term is hardly ever used), however, he does have some MLB velocity, low 90's and can reportedly crank it up to 93 MPH on occasion.  There has been some controversy over how high Blackburn can really throw, as there has been reports of mid-90's heat at times early in his career.  The way I view it is that he's been a pitcher's pitcher since we drafted him, much the way the Giants have been operating with Beede, asking him to not use the high heat as much and focusing more on inducing weak contact and keeping the pitch count down, and so while he can throw heat, he's been choosing not to, because he don't need to in the minors.  That's part of the reason why I like him more than the ranking services have, I think he can hump it up as necessarily once he reaches the majors.
• Even without that uptick I expect, he has performed great as he has risen up the ladder of the farm system, and continued to do well in 2015.  He had a 2.85 ERA (league 4.73 ERA), 1.293 WHIP (league 1.420 WHIP), and about average in most peripherals, but most importantly, significantly lower BB/9 with 2.3 BB/9 (league 3.3 BB/9), which is a skill that I think translates better as a player moves up a level.  That led to a very good 3.09 K/BB (league 2.2 K/BB).  
• I think that once he makes the majors, he will just get better and better, adjusting to the league, much like how Cain and Bumgarner have gotten better and better.  It is not like he has no prospect cred, he did make BP's Top 100 in 2013.    Oddly, to me, though, he is currently only ranked 21st on the MLB.com's Giants Top 30 list.  I would have him in the Top 5, if not Top 3, because I think he is that close to making a big impact at the major league level.
• Kyle Crick
• Speaking of Top 5, Crick just missed, as #6 currently for the Giants.  He has been a highly ranked prospect before, making even the Top MLB Prospect lists as well (MLB.com, BP, and BA have ranked him in their Top 100 lists previously, and as high as the 30's in 2014), but took at least a step (if not two or three) back this season, going wild enough that the Giants moved him into relief.  I believe that they did it in order to reduce the stress on him and to have him focus more on his mechanics than have his confidence swirl down the drain as he struggled with starting.  But it seems that most prospect hounds have given up on him and deem him a reliever going forward.
• I still think that he has the potential to be a top of rotation starter.  Look at his starts in 2015 to start the season, he had a lot of good starts (using Game Score, most of his starts were good, at or above 50) and he did that a lot in his previous seasons too.  Something happened at the end of May and suddenly he just couldn't get through a start well at all, so I see this as a temporary thing that he should get over.  And with the ability to pitch consistently in the mid-90's and rear back and get into the upper 90's on occasion, he still has the velocity teams drool over.
• Of course, he still has a lot to work on.  Consistency is what I would note, look at his career starts, he has had a lot of starts where he struck out a lot and walked very few, but then the bad starts would creep in there and his overall numbers turn out really wild looking.  But it's a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde thing, he needs to be more Dr. and less Hyde.   In any case, still too much talent to risk losing via Rule 5 draft.
• Ian Gardeck
• He was a surprise to me (he's not even on the MLB.com's Top 30), but looking at his numbers, not so surprising anymore.  While he was old for his league (24, +0.9 vs. average), he had a 10.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.33 K/BB, and 1.158 WHIP.  They were all vastly superior to the league averages.   I think it came down between him and Agosta, and Agosta was just too high in some other key stats, even though his K/9, BB/9, and K/BB were about the same or better than Gardeck, and they were the same age.
• Adalberto Mejia
• He has been a highly touted prospect in the Giants farm system for a number of years now, but fell a bit on the Top 30 because of a number of new prospects added in the past year or two, and is now 12th.  I have not been as impressed but he definitely was worth rostering.  He was only 22 YO in 2015, -2.8 years below the average age, yet he had a 2.45 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, and 2.11 K/BB.  He repeated AA, partly because he played there the previous season and did only OK (but remember, he was 3.8 years younger in 2014) and partly because he was caught using a drug that is a common ingredient in weight loss (he's on the bigger side) that is not allowed by the MLB.   If he's playing a shortened season anyway, just have him repeat AA since he wasn't all that great there in his first try.
• While his overall stats are not impressive, they need to be adjusted to account for the fact that he's so much younger than the competition in the league.  Thus, his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 are high because of that difference in experience/development, and his K/9 is low for the same reason.  Yet, in spite of his disadvantage, he was much above average in ERA, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, plus about average in BB/9, K/9, and K/BB.  
• And he's still only 22 YO, so there is still some development and learning he can do.  He operates in the 91-95 MPH range, with sinking and tailing action, which is pretty good, so I'm not sure why he's not getting more K's.  He has repeatable mechanics that enables him to throw strikes consistently.  Should reach the majors in 3 years, which is how many options he has (or perhaps he has 4, the MLB sometimes give that extra option when a player is signed young, but the rules are arcane and I'm not exactly sure, so I went with the lower number for a conservative stance).     
• Steve Okert
• While his numbers in 2015 was not that great, as he struggled for the most part mechanically until August, he pitched well to the end of the year, as he greatly reduced his ERA, WHIP, H/9, and increased his K/9 and K/BB.  Also, even with his struggles, he was 3.8 years younger and still about average across his stat line, and much better ERA and K/9, significantly so K/9.   
• Showing how good he was in the past, MLB.com still has him ranked 9th in the system despite his problems this season.   This is most probably because MLB.com profile notes that "he owns a pair of plus pitches in a 92-94 mph fastball that tops out at 97 and a sharp slider that peaks at 87."  That's two plus pitches, and his cross-body delivery helps him get out LHH, suggesting that he could at minimum be a decent Loogy in the majors soon, and, given his good history previously, could be an Affeldt type who could handle both RHH as well as LHH (he was ahead of Osich previously; if he can regain his abilities to get our RHH, we could have two lefty relievers who can get out both LHH and RHH).
• Jake Smith
• It was a breakout season for him.  Joe Ritzo noted  that Smith "has an electric mid-90's fastball/cutter combo."  He was not much of a prospect before, doing well in certain aspects but he has been significantly older than the leagues he's been in as well.  I think he was a borderline candidate relative to Biagini and Agosta (and MLB.com ranked Biagini 28th, but neither Gardeck, Smith nor Agosta are on it now), and won out because he greatly improved in his BB/9, from a very poor 4.7 BB/9 in 2014 to a great 2.2 BB/9 in 2015.   
• Still, 25 YO, +1.9 years above average, so I think the tipping point for him making the roster relates to his superb 12.6 K/9, which continues his good performances in this area previously, and his now great 2.2 BB/9, which leads to a great 5.62 K/BB, which is another factor in him getting placed on the 40-man.  The 2.35 ERA also helped as well.  
• Chris Stratton
• As a 1st round draft pick, there were a lot of expectations placed on him.  Unfortunately, he had barely turned pro when he was struck by a batted ball in his head, suffering a season-ending concussion and, as we have seen with all the news on concussions in recent years, recovery is never linear nor a guarantee.  So it has been very hard for prospect hounds to get a good feel for him.  I think I've been more on the positive side than most, as many have wrote him off during the years after.  Still, ranked 14th by MLB.com in Giants farm system, and that is because of his plus fastball, normally 88-92 MPH and above average slider.
• Here's why I have liked his performances.  While he has not lived up to expectations, my studies of draft picks have found that not all first round picks should have the same expectations.   Once you get beyond the first five, then the first ten, the odds of the pick making the majors is actually pretty low.  Stratton's range where he was selected is at 4 to 1 against him ever being good in the majors, and perhaps as high as 9 to 1 against, depending on the depth in the draft that season.  So I think people have placed too many expectations on him, they have been spoiled a bit by Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner, other first found picks.
• In addition, while he has not done all that well, and poorly at times, I think a key thing to remember is that he's actually been young in almost every league he has played in, and younger relatively as he has risen, he was 2.8 years younger than the league in 2015, and yet if you look at his stat line, he's about average for the league.   
• Add on top of all that is his building up of arm stamina, as he's up to 148.0 IP in 2015, he's in a similar situation to what I described above for Blach, as he looks ready to take a back of rotation spot - and I would place him ahead of Blach overall (so it would be Blackburn, Stratton, Blach currently).   Though I would note that both Beede and Mejia looks like they should be ready to jump ahead of Stratton and Blach by mid-season, and I would watch Phil Bickford, Sam Coonrod, and Jordan Johnson, as they might leapfrog multiple leagues in 2016, plus Chase Johnson showed some good stuff in 2015 as well.   

Rosterbation

The 40-man roster is full now and there are no one I would call marginal enough that dropping him would not hurt some.  Not that long ago, I would have counted Heston and Parker as easy calls for DFA, so caveat anything I say relative to those misses.  I guess, per my discussion above, Smith and Gardeck might be on the edge, but you don't discard pitchers with over 10 K/9 easily and without some regrets.

Still with 25 pitchers on the 40-man roster and the need for a starting LF and possibly another backup OF, something will need to happen among the pitchers to open up spots, because there are few position players who look like they can be DFAed (Hector Sanchez perhaps, given all the talk by beat writers) or traded (I don't think the Giants want to trade Susac, but he is a big trading chip since most prospect services thought that Susac was ready for a starting catching job last season, except that Posey had a lock on the position).

Trade Thoughts

As I noted first, given that the roster is filled now, and at least one free agency signing (Leake) is expected, if not two or three (another SP and a starting LF), trades are probably going to be the way the Giants will plan on clearing space in the 40-man roster, particularly among the 25 pitchers on the roster.  Some might be swapped to bring back someone the Giants can leave off the 40-man, like when they traded Conor Gillaspie.

To get a good SP, in terms of someone to pair with Bumgarner, you are going to have to give to get.  I know the prospects who they would have to give up in order to get a pitcher that good, but I don't know if the Giants even want to make them available in trade, as they might be on their rumored "Do Not Trade" list (and some were just acquired in 2015 and per CBA, not tradeable right now):   Panik, Duffy, Susac, Arroyo, Fox, Blackburn, Beede, Bickford, Mejia, Coonrod, Jordan Johnson, Okert, Law, Crick, Williamson, Parker, Suarez, Miller, Marshall.   And as noted before, Evans stated in recent press conference that while teams are asking for Panik or Duffy, the Giants are not looking to trade them.

And really, look at the history of trades under Sabean/Evans, the vast majority of them have been guys with minimal or no MLB experience, and the vast majority of them have not been one where the Giants regretted losing the player.   So I would not expect either Panik or Duffy to go unless the Giants get an offer that they can't refuse (you have to leave wiggle room as bait to other teams dissecting what you publicly say, so I don't take that as a negative with regards to the Giants intent regarding keeping them, it is much like when Sabean said that both Cain and Lincecum were on the table, because you never know if another team makes an incredible offer, but it is not likely to happen, nonetheless).

If I had to chose someone to trade, I would say Mejia since I've not been all that impressed, but most services think a lot of his prospects and once ranked him in the Top 100 prospect list.   I like Heston and would not trade him, but he certainly has trade value, and again, to get value, you have to give value, and in the Giants case, it will be more quantity than quality.  Coonrod is another who has a good statline, but which I'm not sure how good he is.  And Crick I really like, but his struggles with walks could make him available.  
Others who might also be available, but I see more as additional pieces, to fill out a trade, off the 40-man are Stratton, Blach, Gardeck, Smith, Broadway, Hall, Gregorio, Guerrin, Petit, Hanchez, Adrianza.  But I've not been the best in discerning who is on on the "Do Not Trade" list or who would get dropped off the 40-man list, so I could be missing something somewhere.  So it should be an interesting off-season as we learn what the Giants really think of some of their prospects.

Your 2016 Giants: 40-man Roster Moves

Beyond the Aoki non-option, I realized that I should mention other roster moves that had been made recently.  The Giants outrighted Juan Perez, Nick Noonan, Jackson Willilams, and Brett Bochy, which opened up spots for guys the Giants brought off of the 60-day DL, which was necessary once the World Series was won by the Royals (Congrats!), allowing Joe Panik, Andrew Susac, and Hector Sanchez back on the 40-man.  Juan Perez was also brought off the 60-day DL, then was waivered and passed through.  Oh, and I recall that Kevin Frandsen was released as well, at some point.

It appears that Perez was placed back on the AAA roster after passing through waivers.  No news on what is happening with Noonan, Williams, or Bochy.

Your 2015 Giants: New 40-man Roster Additions and Subtraction

Pavlovic reported on the 40-man roster additions and subtraction before the Rule 5 Draft that will be happening soon.  Being added are four RHP:

• Derek Law:  He had a great 2013 and was prominently promoted as a possible 2014 addition to the bullpen, but unfortunately he needed Tommy John surgery.  Was considered the future closer by some (including me) before the injury.  Assuming he comes back like Strickland did from his TJS, we could have a sterling future bullpen of Law, Strickland, Okert.  
• Ray Black:  100 MPH fast ball but wild as heck.  Pavlovic noted that teams were interested in him.
• Cody Hall:  He has been doing well as a reliever rising up the farm, but Law and Strickland got most of the headlines.  9.9 K/9 (but 26 YO in AA) and 4.07 K/BB ratio (excellent).  
• Joan Gregorio:  People are down on him because of his higher ERA and high walk rate, but his K/BB was above 2.0, which is the mark of a good pitcher, generally.  He's only 23 YO for the 2015 season, so if he can work out whatever issues he had while in San Jose, and put in a good season, he would be on track for making the majors at age 25-26, which is not that bad.  

As often happens, the 40 man roster got filled beyond, so a player was DFAed:  Juan Gutierrez.  Obviously, if the Giants sign any of their free agents - Sandoval, Romo, Peavy, Vogelsong - they will need to open up a spot for them and more players will be DFAed.

Sandoval Thoughts

Speaking of Sandoval, lots of rumors going around, one that the Giants already offered 5 years and $90M, another almost polar opposite that Sandoval basically was insulted that he wasn't signed before reaching free agency, and will sign with another team.  I don't want him at that contract so I'm kind of hoping he wants to move on if that is really the offer.

I can't believe that the Giants offered 5 years and $90M, though, the more I think about it.  If that is really their best offer, why didn't they offer that in spring training or late in the season, a la Pence.  Just because you agree not to negotiate don't mean you can't throw out a number and ask them to think about it.   And Sandoval probably would have signed a contract like that.  And it is such a huge leap from 3 years and $40M, that just don't make sense to me, especially given how poorly he hit this season, he's certainly capable of better but other teams tend to look at recent performances for a clue to future, and Sandoval has been lacking and dropping since 2011, a double whammy.

No, this looks like something a desperate agent would release to the press in order to make other teams think that they need to outbid the Giants.  Because, as an inexperienced agent who apparently screwed up his only other negotiation and gave the Royals a sweetest of hearts deal for their starting catcher - I don't see how he did his fiduciary duties for his client, I would bet that if Perez wanted to sue his agent on the grounds of incompetence, he would probably win - he don't know how to actually negotiate and drive the hard bargains necessary to win his client a bigger contract.  And he showed off his inexperience in spring with his poor handling of the press and saying the things he said.  So he could have released this "fact" in hopes of pushing another team to go higher, towards what he wants.

Only, most reports are that Boston only want to go four years AND place weight bonuses as part of the contract.   And there is no way the Padres or Blue Jays will pay that much money for Sandoval, SD certainly, Toronto however, has pulled off stupid moves before, and might yet have another one up their sleeves.  Bobby Evans thinks that Sandoval wants to decide by Thanksgiving, so we should soon see if any of this is true or not.

As I've written before, I think the Giants can be fine offensively without Sandoval, and I look forward to seeing what Duffy or Adrianza can do at 3B, with Arias as a floor on what we get from the position.  Better than paying Sandoval a contract that 1) don't fit in with what he has actually produced, 2) don't fit in with the market for 3B, 3) don't fit in with his lack of responsibility with regards to the $17M contract he got previously.  We will see.

2014 40-Man Roster Changes to Avoid Rule 5 Draft Losses

The following players have been reported by Baggarly and Pavlovic to have been added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made available via the Rule 5 draft happening soon:

• Gary Brown, CF
• Kendry Flores, RHP
• Adam Duvall, 3B
• Hunter Strickland, RHP

That put us over.  To get us back to 40, pitcher Guillermo Moscoso was DFAed.

It was also noted that more players may have to be DFAed to accommodate the reportedly soon to be signed Javier Lopez deal (reported to be 3 year, $13M by BA Sports Guy), and when the Giants sign another player to fill the last SP position (whether Vogelsong or another free agent; sounds like if Vogelsong is signed, he will be made the last starting pitcher, he won't have to battle anyone for that role - though like any player, he could lose it if he plays poorly in spring).

ogc thoughts

The first three were no-brainers.  Brown, while disappointing many, is still very good defensively, and as Juan Perez showed this year, even in limited play, you can make a huge contribution via great defensive plays.  And he's working on his mechanics to become a better hitter.  Flores, rose to the occasion and did very well, putting his name into the conversation among top Giants prospects.  Great K/BB of 8.06, as his command improved even better than before - and he was very good before - while maintaining a high K/9.   Plus, he was only 21 for the season.  Duvall has been hitting homers and playing a decent 3B, and hit OK there.

Strickland was a surprise.  He had already been DFAed during the 2013 season and went unclaimed.  I liked his numbers before he was injured, so I was surprised he was dropped, as the DFA suggests that they did not think much of his chances.  But by protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, that means the Giants front office thinks enough of his potential that instead of risking losing him, they put him on the 40-man roster.

I was a little surprised that Moscoso was released, and yet not.  Surprised because he pitched well for us.  Not surprised because he made the point early on that he wants to be a starting pitcher, and apparently the Giants do not agree, and are letting him go, much like they did with Correia, who also wanted to start, for someone, anyone.  Apparently Petit, who is out of options, is now first in line to be the long reliever.

Baggarly points out Mijares as the most likely to go first, when Lopez is signed, he was already being eyed for non-tender anyway.  Next one expected to go after Mijares is Tony Abreu.

Both Moscoso and Mijares have good stats, and should not have a hard time finding another team, if/when the time comes.  Abreu I'm not sure of.  His frequent injuries will hurt his chances of finding a place for him.

I also wonder which players were not protected and thus are draftable in the Rule 5 draft.  We have not lost many players via this rule, but you never know.

And the 40-man is going to get crowded soon, as the prospects keep doing well and moving up.   I went through an exercise to see who would get assigned to each level and came up with the following:

• Mike Kickham, Eric Surkamp, Chris Heston, Edwin Escobar plus one (probably someone signed to minor league deal) in AAA; 
• Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach, Adalberto Mejia, Kendry Flores in AA; 
• Chris Stratton, Martin Agosta, Joan Gregorio, Chris Johnson, Joe Kurrasch in Advanced A; and 
• Nick Vander Tuig, Chase Johnson, Luis Ysla, Carlos Diaz, Andrew Leenhouts, Keury Mella in A-ball in Augusta. 

Wow, they all seem good, in one way or another, the system is full up! All of the above pitchers have some nice qualities that could work in the majors.  Escobar looks near certain to perform well enough to break in the majors in 2014 at some point, whether through need or September call-up.  That should provide a lot of trading chips should the Giants need to trade by mid-season.

Your 2013 Giants: Five Added to 40-Man Roster

Sorry, but things have been busy, here is the latest news on the Giants 40-man roster additions, as reported by sfgiants.com.  Five players have been added to the 40-man roster, after a lot of space was cleared out within a week of the glorious 2012 season that was the San Francisco Giants second World Championship in three years, including the release of RHP reliever Hensley and the sending of Burriss to AAA.  Even with the addition of these five players, there is still five more open spots in the 40-man roster, indicating that the Giants are hoping to add a number of free agents to the roster during the off-season.

• RHP Jake Dunning:  24 YO Dunning is a reliever, a little old for the EL in 2012 season at 23, but not that old either.  His 4.10 ERA was not that special, but he had a 2.41 K/BB ratio, which is good, and a low 2.9 BB/9, but not really that great for AA if he hopes to make the majors at some point.  He should get promoted to AAA but needs to do more if he wants to make the majors.
• LHP Edwin Escobar:  20 YO Escobar started 22 games and had a nice 2.96 ERA in the Sally League.  He had a stellar 3.81 K/BB ratio, with a superb 2.2 BB/9, but his 8.4 K/9, while good for the league, is not all that special if he wants to make the majors, though it should be noted that most of the hitters had 2 more years of experience over him and thus as he catches up in age to the competition, he should see improvement.  And at 20, he's got a lot of time to develop as he rises through the minors.
• RHP Chris Heston:  24 YO Heston is one of those prospects who will need to prove it at every level he rises to.  And he certainly did in AA, 2.24 ERA in 25 starts, 3.38 K/BB ratio, good 2.4 BB/9 and OK 8.2 K/9, and stellar 0.1 HR/9, as his over 50% GB% rate over his career:  60% in Rookie in 2009, 57% in Augusta in 2010, 58% in San Jose in 2011, and 53% in Richmond in 2012.  The large dip in AA in 2012 suggests that he's started to lose his advantage over the hitters already, so 2013 will be a big test for him when he gets to tackle AAA and see if he can adjust to the higher level of competition.
• MI Nick Noonan:  23 YO Noonan has been my pet favorite for a number of years now.  After his stellar second half in San Jose a few years back, where he showed a lot of batting skills, being able to reduce his strikeout rate a lot while also getting more walks than strikeouts for about half the season, I hew to the Baseball Forecaster truism that once a hitter shows a skill, he owns it, then it becomes a matter of showing that skill again consistently.  He has not done it for a couple of years after that, but he showed marked improvement in 2012, though part of that appears due to a high BABIP that is similar to what he put up when he first turned pro, but not even close compared to his numbers the past three seasons.  
• OF Juan Perez:  26 YO Perez was too old to be a valid prospect in AA in 2012, but he showed some improvement in his batting discipline, cutting down on his strikeouts in 2012 vs. 2011 and before, and his contact rate, while not quite there yet (that is >= 85%) was very close at 82.4%, and I think that is the main reason he got added.  His batting line was a nice .302/.341/.441/.782, but as you can see, he don't get many walks, so he will need to hit and well if he hopes to stick in the majors.  Improving his contact rate a bit more would help him get there, that plus his power to go with good enough speed that helps him steal bases (but his technique is sadly lacking, as his CS is very high).

These players were added in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft process, which will be conducted on December 6th at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.

ogc thoughts

Obviously, with so many spots still open on the 40 man roster, the Giants appear to be hoping to add Scutaro and Pagan, though the latter appears to be slipping away, both because of years and salary, and because the Giants already have Gregor Blanco as a viable CF candidate.  The Giants are clearly intending for Gary Brown to be their future CF, and a long term contract with Pagan could mean that he could be pushed to LF at some point once Brown is ready.   Brown should start 2013 in AAA and could be ready to come up sometime in the 2013-14 seasons time frame.  And at the money he appears to be rumored to be getting, the only way he can produce such value is if he played CF.

Meanwhile, as DrB elaborated nicely on at his blog and which I've touched on in my comments here and there,  Blanco gives the Giants a lot of flexibility in terms of whatever moves they make regarding the outfield for the 2013 season.  Him plus that both Kieschnick and Peguero appear to be ready to compete for either a starting OF spot, or more likely, a utility OF spot, and perhaps two spots if Blanco is starting CF and the Giants sign a LF who can replace Pagan's hitting.  Thus, Pagan is nice to have but not as much of a necessity as re-signing Scutaro.

Though Scutaro is also not as necessary to get either if the Giants can retain Ryan Theriot.  I assume Theriot is hoping to land a starting spot somewhere but if not, the Giants will welcome him back to the bench as MI utility.  But if nobody was offering last off-season, I don't really see anyone doing that this off-season either.  Though even he is not necessary, as Joaquin Arias looks like he is a good utility MI, and Nick Noonan looks like he has been groomed to take on a utility MI role, like Burriss was, by getting a lot of starts in the minors at 2B and SS.

If the 25 man roster were to be selected today, here is the ones I would think would be chosen:

• Starters:  Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito
• Relievers:  Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Kontos, Mijares, and Runzler/Otero
• Starting Position:  Posey, Belt, Arias, Sandoval, Crawford, Kieschnick, Blanco, Pence
• Bench:  Sanchez, Arias, Gillaspie, Pill, Peguero

I think the relievers are pretty set but that some vets will be invited to compete for the final reliever spot with Runzler and Otero who are most likely to contend from the 40 man.  Machi will be in the mix as well, and I think that this is probably Heath Hembree's to lose, though I would not count out Brett Bochy either, as a dark horse candidate.  I would put Jacob Dunnington in the mix as well.

The Giants clearly need upgrades at 2B and LF/CF (since Blanco could play either) and will likely sign a vet to start at both positions.  The bench also needs upgrades over Gillaspie (as we need another utility MI) and Pill.  Peguero, after his nice showing last September, look ready to take a spot as a 4th OF, though another year of seasoning in AAA would not hurt either, so expect veteran OF's to be invited to camp, probably including a $1-3M veteran free agent at some point.

However, I would note from past observations that the Giants like to keep a spot open for prospects who appear like they might be ready to compete for a starting spot, so I expect LF to be kept open, with Blanco either starting in CF or, if a vet CF is signed, be the lead competitor for the LF starting spot, in competition with Kieschnick, Peguero, and probably at least one vet OF (Nady?).

Overall, the Giants look in pretty good shape for a good run at defending their title in 2013.  I'm very happy with where they are right now, though I would have preferred that Scutaro been signed by now, as every day he is not signed, is a sign that other teams are showing him enough interest to lure him away.   I think Arias is doable starting at 2B for us for the first half, with possible upgrade mid-season from Noonan or another mid-season trade for an MI.  I would love to have Theriot here again as main utility MI and starting 2B placeholder until mid-season if necessary.  I am fine with Blanco in CF and leading off, he's had an above average OBP for much of career and that is the most important thing to look for out of leadoff, plus he has great defensive skills and great speed as well.

40 Man Changes: 3 Spots Left

The Giants just announced a few 40 man roster moves in anticipation of the Rule 5 Draft that will happen soon, here are the changes:

• RHP Jose Casilla was added.
• RHP Steve Edlefsen was added.
• LHP Clayton Tanner was added.
• 1B Brett Pill was outrighted to Triple-A Fresno
• RHP Waldis Joaquin was placed on release waivers.
  

That left the team with 37 players on the 40 man roster, leaving space for 3 players. Given that the Giants are clearly pursuing Huff and Uribe, if they should achieve what they hope for, that would leave only one spot left, meaning that they would only be able to add Burrell or Renteria but not both, without needing to clear a spot on the roster if they want both players.

This last spot could also be for someone they hope to snag in the Rule 5 draft themselves.  They have been relatively active in that arena in recent seasons, though no one has stuck so far.  Some have looked good enough that other teams then snagged them, but the only one who appears to have some MLB hope is the pitcher the Giants drafted then returned, only for San Diego to pick him up and keep him on their roster, I think in 2009.  And still, the hope is not that great.

Still, this is very much like the amateur draft after the first couple of rounds.  Not very many of the players drafted via this process ever make the majors and stick, let alone be a regular starter.  But successful pickups like Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton (pick someone whose first name starts with a J?) means that teams will continue to participate and hope they find the right guy ready to take the big leap.  Kind of like the regular amateur draft.

When I find out who might be drafted away from us via the Rule 5 Draft, I'll post it.  If you know it, please post the link in the comments.

Here is what the linked article above mentioned on each player, I'll add comments:

• Casilla, the younger brother of Giants reliever Santiago Casilla, finished 4-1 with a 1.16 ERA and 14 saves in 46 appearances. The 21-year-old made the South Atlantic League's midseason All-Star team.  
• OGC:  from what I've read, he's even better than his older brother.  He did extremely well, despite being much younger than most players in the league.  He could be being groomed in case the Giants might have to let go of Wilson, depending on how much money he wants beyond arbitration.
• Edlefsen, 25, was 7-2 with a 2.38 ERA and six saves in 49 relief appearances in his second season at Triple-A Fresno and was named a Pacific Coast League midseason All-Star.  
• OGC:  If I recall right, he was named by BA as having the best slider in the system for a number of years now.  He hasn't risen as fast as I was hoping given his early hype when he turned pro, but he did very well in AAA in 2010.  Unfortunately for him, the Giants are currently full up on relievers, he'll probably be among the first choices the Giants consider if anyone is injured or need to be replaced due to poor performance in 2011 and probably will get a chance in 2012, I think a number of relievers are eligible for free agency then or arbitration.  
• Tanner, 22, went 9-9 with a 3.68 ERA in 27 starts for Double-A Richmond in 2010. The graduate of De La Salle High School in Concord, Calif., made the Eastern League midseason All-Star team and finished ninth in the league in ERA. 
•  OGC:  I have been rooting for Tanner but he's the crafty lefty type of pitchers and those types of pitchers need to prove themselves at every level.  He'll have to prove himself in 2011 in AAA, then eventually the majors.  But he's done pretty well at each level and he's still prospect young, so there is plenty of hope.  But with the low K-rate, the odds will be long.  And we saw how Pucetas flamed out in AAA.  But I always have a soft spot for prospects with local ties.  Go Clayton!
• Joaquin, 23, appeared in four games with the Giants this season, allowing six runs (five earned) in 4 2/3 innings. He spent most of the year with Triple-A Fresno and posted a 1-2 mark with a 4.93 ERA in 23 games, including five starts. He underwent lower back surgery on Nov. 10.  
• OGC:  I was pretty shocked to see him being dropped until I saw the lower back surgery mentioned.  They took a calculated risk, dropping him off the 40-man to open up a spot, hoping nobody will want to take him while he's recovering from major surgery, and then they can tuck him back into the farm system while he recovers. He's still young and got a lot of speed and stuff, so there's still a chance. 
• Pill, 26, batted .275 (143-for-520) with 34 doubles, 16 home runs and 84 RBIs at Fresno. 
• OGC:  Some people were really clamoring for him after his good AA season in 2009, but they failed to account for the fact that he did it at age 25.  It was a nice season but Ishikawa had a much better season than Pill did in AA, it wasn't even close and he did it at a younger age, and yet did not get the hype I saw with Pill among fans.  I don't know if it was because Ishikawa started out with a lot of hope/hype due to his high bonus but then was a disappointment, then did finally broke out of it, while Pill wasn't on anyone's radar and suddenly had one good season, but I don't understand the difference in interest, particularly since Ishikawa has shown a lot more power, particularly HR power, and their fielding is probably equal.  It appears I was correct, Pill had a nondescript 2010 and was dropped.

Giants Added 4 to 40 Man Roster; Second-Tier FA; Sign Cain to Extension

Catching up with some news, the Giants recently added four prospects to their 40 man roster. This was reported at their website by Haft, Baggarly, and Schulman. Here they are in order of where I think they rank in terms of contributing eventually (and also probably in order of contributing) to the Giants:

Kevin Pucetas

He had been winning big in the minors until his 2009 big bump of a season, once winning the title of "Most Spectacular Pitcher of the Year" for having the lowest ERA in all of the minors. Baggarly notes that he is the only guy of these who won't appear in his top 30 prospect list for Baseball America because of how poorly he did in 2009. He has never had the "stuff" that pitchers have/need to dominate in the majors. But as Baggarly notes, he is "a strike thrower and he competes well in all aspects ... The Giants always seem to have an affinity for those types of guys."

Not everything was bad. He made a big jump from Advanced A to AAA last season and was only 24 last season, so a bump would be expected. Plus his BABIP was high (.315) so there was some bad luck involved. In particular, the bad luck was in his home park at Fresno. His FIP MLE overall was a 5.01, which is OK for a 5th starter, but his FIP MLE for the road was 4.47, which would put him in middle rotation talent. So I don't see why he was left off the 30 man for the Giants next season, are there really that many better prospects?

Unless the Giants re-sign Penny (right now, unlikely, but if he's not signed by EOY, he might just do it to tweak the D-ger's noses), #5 starter will be filled internally by either Joe Martinez or Kevin Pucetas. He had done very well before, so I think that he should be able to hold down the #5 starter job, if not here, somewhere, and maybe be one of those guys like Brett Tomko or Sidney Ponson who drifts from team to team. At only age 25 plus already one AAA season under his wing, he probably only needs an opportunity on someone's rotation to get to stick around the majors for a few years under cheap team control, then if he can

Brett Pill

Had not done that much with the Giants prior to this season. Like Sandoval and Bowker before him, had a breakout year in AA Connecticut, but really, .830 OPS in AA is not all that impressive. His 20 HR was, as that was double his high before, so at age 24 his power finally kicked in. He also had an odd split in Dodd Stadium, hitting better at home - perhaps they finally figured out how to fix up the park so that it would be more of a hitter's park, because he's another guy who did well there but not on the road in the past two seasons.

In any case, his hitting was not all that impressive, .300/.352/.478/.830 with 20 HR is very nice, but at AA, the MLE for that is only .252/.292/.400/.692 with 18 HR. That's a nice bench player who can start in a pinch with power. His strikeout rate improved slightly to be slightly better than what you want to look for (which is 15%; he had 13.7%), but he's always been on the edge in that way during his minor league career, just slightly above. His walk rate is about what it has always been. And his BABIP was right in range, so this was a season unaffected by luck in that matter.

Why he's on the Top 30 list for BA but not Pucetas, I'm not sure, other than the surge in power plus consistent discipline at the place. At 24 in AA, he's a bit old in the league for a legitimately good prospect, but OK for someone on the fringes of making the MLB roster. I would want to see how Pill does in AAA before I would put him above Pucetas, and he would need to replicate his good strikeout rate and HR power, plus decent ability to get on base. At 25 next year, it is pretty much do or die for his prospect status.

Francisco Peguero

If his eligibility wasn't over, he probably wouldn't be on the 40 man roster but would be close to making it anyhow by next year. He had a bad start with Augusta, so, whether by injury or management move (could have been injured or maybe he got put into instructional league), he ended up a step back at Salem-Keizer in June, where he finally got hot in July, whereupon he got returned back to Augusta for the rest of the season, where he hit well in July and August, then after a cold Sept there, moved to San Jose where he hit well there. Baseball America ranked him as the Northwest League's 8th best prospect for 2009.

He improved greatly on his discipline at the plate in 2009, striking out much, much less, and getting it below the 15% threshold. But he wasn't that great in August even though he's right in the mass age range for the league, and his BABIP was extremely high in 2009, though it has been for the past two years, so perhaps his speed accounts for a large amount of that. Even his great San Jose stats MLE is only .303/.361/.333/.694.

That with his speed would make him a good CF candidate, but he is going to have to prove it at every level, and he still has Advanced A, AA, and AAA to conquer before reaching the majors. If each takes a year, that would make him 25 when he reaches the majors. So maybe he makes the majors and right now he's looking like a utility guy, unless he starts hitting for more power plus continue his good discipline and speed. Could be a leadoff guy with defense in CF if he can continue to develop. Again, not sure why him and not Pucetas.

Darren Ford

He is the guy we got for Ray Durham in trade. He's been in Advanced A for the past 3 seasons, basically, so it is about time he figured out the level and league. At 23 for 2009, he's old for the league, so we don't know if his improvement to .294/.382/.451/.833 is because of actual improvement or just because he's now much more experienced than much of the league. Part of it was because he hit 9 HR and another part was because he was able to reduce the number of strikeouts, though it is still too high. However, his BABIP was horribly elevated in 2009 compared to his recent MiLB career, so he would need to keep that up in order to be OK in the majors with that OPS, and a .381 BABIP is not really sustainable except by players like Ichiro.

He is a speed burner (one of the fastest in the minors) and very good defensively in CF, so if he could only figure out how to get on base and steal a lot of bases without many CS, he could have a long MLB career as a utility guy. But he'll be 24 in AA next season, and if he only takes one season, 25 in AAA in 2011, putting him at 26 for the majors in 2012. And it took him two years to figure out Advanced A.

The good news is that he hit .310/.382/.514/.896 on the road for San Jose (their park is a pitcher's park relative to the rest of the Cal League), so he did OK in that way. But the MLE for his away numbers are still only .226/.273/.353/.626, which puts him on the Calvin Murray and Jason Ellison career path. Again, not sure why him over Pucetas.

Second Tier Free Agent Talent

Sabean recently noted in a conference call (partial account by Haft and Schulman; oddly, no full account that I can find) that there is a second tier of free agents - below Holliday and Bay - that would appeal to the Giants. That includes Boras' clients, as it was reported that Sabean acknowledged that the club has contacted Boras about some of his clients. "We know who is available," Sabean said. He also noted that Boras clients are often prolonged negotiations.

This was mentioned after Tim Lincecum's conference call regarding his Cy Young award. Sabean said that he refuses to be a "stalking horse" for any player who is just using the Giants to get more money elsewhere. This is probably a result of the Soriano and Lee snubs before, particularly Lee, whom the Giants were willing to go higher, but Lee told them not to bother, as he apparently got what he wanted from the Astros. Sabean said he doubts Holliday and Bay will have genuine interest because the Yankees, Red Sox, and other bigger-market teams would be pursuing them.

Giants Thoughts

There are some potential for all these players, so I can see why they were protected before the upcoming Rule V draft. However, the Giants only have one spot remaining on the 40 man and the presumption is the Giants were going to sign at least a backup catcher, which would take the last spot. Thus, if the Giants decide to sign another starter (like Penny) or find the second tier free agent hitter that Sabean said recently he would pursue, some of these players could likely be dropped off the roster and designated for assignment.

First would be Ford, I think. I think Eli Whiteside is probably next after Ford, once a backup catcher is signed. Alex Hinshaw is probably on the bubble as well, with the emergence of Dan Runzler. Brian Bocock has to be on the bubble as well, I was surprised others (like Sadowski) were dropped before him.

It is also possible that someone might get traded, but that's hard to predict, it would depend on the other team thinking that our guy is worth giving up one of their prospects for. But I would think that Merkin Valdez could be a possibility, as well as Garko or Ishikawa, depending on the circumstances.

Second Tier Not Really News

I think that it was pretty clear that the Giants were probably not going to sign either of the top two hitters, Holliday and Bay. Holliday has openly said that he hates hitting here. And Bay is being strongly courted by the Red Sox, so I have to assume that they have the money land him if they want him.

Bay is a possibility if other teams are not interested in matching his price (whatever that is) and it happens to fit the Giants valuation. Not sure what the threshold is for the Giants, but I wouldn't pay more than $15M per year for Bay and the guess I've seen right now is that he would get 4 years at $15M per year. I think I would rather pass and let Bowker and Schierholtz have the opportunity to start if it goes above that.

In addition, there are probably second tier outfielders who will be available on the cheap in January. Particularly if there are any surprise non-tenders when it comes time to offer arbitration, the Giants will probably be perusing that list pretty carefully.

I still like Chone Figgins, but he probably won't be a target for the Giants until the Angels decide to not tender arbitration to him as he is a Type A free agent, and thus not cost the Giants their first round pick. I don't see the Angels offering him arbitration, as they might want to play Brandon Wood or Sean Rodriguez at 3B, and Maicer Izturis is another backup option if neither claims the position.

Still, with a billionaire owner (we need such a guy owning the Giants and there are plenty of them in the SF Bay Area), he can afford to eat contracts easily (like Matthews Jr's) and so they might just play chicken and offer him arbitration. At only $5.8M last season, he probably would only get $8-9M tops in arbitration, which the Angels might be willing to risk.

With his great OBP and SB speed, he would be great as our leadoff hitter. The only problem is that he played well at 3B last season, so his acquisition could push Sandoval to 1B and Garko and Ishikawa off the team. He has played LF before, and that would be ideal for us, but I don't know if he prefers to stay at 3B or not.

Speaking of free agents, Dallas McPherson became a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and was recently signed by the Oakland A's, which has recently become a landing place or waystation for a number of former Giants players, like Rajai Davis and Jerome Williams.

Giants Interest Does Not Equal Enough Interest to Sign

There is going to be a lot of agents talking about the Giants interest in their clients because in this economic climate, they have to broadcast that teams are interested, in order to help create some demand for their client and some sense of scarcity. Simple economics and sales savvy.

Just remember that the Giants contact a lot of free agents at this time, because they might have a cursory interest, but that does not mean that they are interested at any price. They are notorious window shoppers. Remember, the Giants contacted Gary Sheffield's agent once and asked if he would be willing to sign for under $10M, when any fan who follows the Hot Stove could have told the Giants that there was no way he was signing for under $10M with any team, he was going to get more (and he did, I think with Detroit). You don't get if you don't ask, but sometimes you are just insulting or disconnected with reality by giving low-ball offers like that. Players, particularly those with big egos, are going to remember that about you.

Need to Sign Cain to Extension

Also, someone on El Lefty Malo suggested that Cain could be traded because he would be very expensive once he gets past our last contract year, which is 2011, and thus we might not be able to keep Lincecum, Zito, Rowand, and Cain on the same roster, and I would have to agree that is a possibility. So one thing to watch for this off-season is if the Giants are able to sign Cain to a two-year extension at a relatively cheap price, say, 2 years at $18-25M. He probably could get $12-15M right now on the free agent market, and with a bit of inflation, in 2011, that would put him around $15-18M per season.

However, he signed a really cheap contract with the Giants already so he and/or his agents might decide that his next contract needs to be for fair value. And that would probably put us out of his price range given our other contracts at that time. Players do accept lower amounts now for the bird in the hand vs. two in the bush, but hard to judge how much lower.

But Cain appears to love being here, he has planted roots here, marrying someone from the area, buying a home here, and since he had no team that he rooted for when he was young, the Giants are the only team he has ever really felt bonds with. A two year contract for the amount I suggested above ($18-25M) would secure his future, and he would still be only 29 for the next season when he becomes a free agent in 2013 offseason. So it might be possible to get him signed to a good extension.

Else, the Giants would need to strongly consider trading him either 2010 mid-season or the next off-season, as then we would only have one year of him remaining. If a trade is envisioned, then I would want something similar to what the A's got for Haren from the D-backs. I'm not sure who else has a farm system like that to give up for Cain, though. But the Brewers have a lot of hitters and need pitchers. The Rays and Angels also have a lot of young hitters in their farm systems too. And the Angels look like they will be losing Lackey, after having lost Nick Adenhart at the start of the season, and don't have good pitching prospects looking ready for 2010.

And there is the suggestion on ELM that the Giants trade Cain to Detroit for Cabrera and Granderson. Thinking further on that, I noted that we would have to either give up Bumgarner too or accept another bad contract like Dontrelle Willis to do the trade as that commenter suggested (which included us throwing in Rowand, Merkin Valdez, Garko/Ishikawa, Henry Sosa, and Jesus Guzman, if I remember the details right; no kitchen sink :^).

A new thought while writing this that occurred to me is that the Giants could perhaps make it Cain for Cabrera, plus we throw in Valdez, Garko, and Guzman, and they throw back a mid-tier prospect, say, any of the Baseball Prospectus Three-Star prospects. They might also want us to take on Dontrelle Willis's $12M contract as well, but then I think that is where I would draw the line unless they are willing to take on Barry Zito back (but I don't know if he is even tradeable or whether he can block trades to certain teams).

But, personally, I would prefer to keep Cain and sign him to a two year extension. I think our rotation is superior with him in it, but if we don't have him, then it is Lincecum, Zito, Sanchez, Bumgarner, as our main starters, which might be superior in 2011, but questionable for 2010: will Zito continue to do well? Will Sanchez do well over a full season? Would Bumgarner be able to do well his first season, most do not duplicate how well they do in the minors, there is usually at least some period of adjustment. What will we get out of the #5 starter?

Cabrera would be nice, but I think it is more important to keep the rotation as strong as possible right now, as Bumgarner is probably not ready for the majors yet. Trading off starters starting mid-season 2010 is probably OK, as by then we should know how Bumgarner and Wheeler are doing in the minors, and how ready each of them look for the future.