According to reports, the Giants have signed both Gary Brown and Jarrett Parker, links to news on their names.
Gary Brown got a bonus of $1.45M which is above the $1.242M slot for the 24th pick overall and is roughly what the 17th pick got. That is roughly what Lincecum and Bumgarner got over slot at the 10th pick slot.
Jarrett Parker got a bonus of $700K which is above the $492,300 slot for the 74th pick overall and is roughly what the 50th and 51st pick got, roughly beginning of second round bonus for a back of second round pick, and slightly below what BA had him ranked overall on talent, which was roughly back of supplemental first round, or $717K to $800K.
Giants Thoughts
Hopefully one of them will be our future CF, but the odds of either making it to the majors as a good player is relatively low, under 20% collectively, probably closer to 15%. The draft is a numbers game, the more you have, the greater the odds, particularly if you are valuing the picks correctly regarding bonus, it takes roughly $10-15M in bonuses to find each good player in the draft.
Still, I like Gary Brown's chances to make the majors, the question is how good he'll be. At minimum, it sounds like he will be a fine defensive player with the speed to handle fielding CF and Death Valley.
People question his hitting but the good points there are that he was the best hitter in the Big West over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki, and that he did well in the Cape Cod league, a wood bat league, in his second season there. Also, his speed will help him get hits that others wouldn't get, he has incredible speed, equivalent to left-handed batters getting to 1B despite his disadvantage of hitting right-handed.
Also, people knock his lack of walks, but he has shown the ability to take walks when he was not capable of hitting over .400, as he did this season, he was taking a lot of walks in his freshman season, both in the Big West and the Cape Cod league. It was just that once he figured out the hitting part, he walked less. I think he will adjust to his ability level to keep his OBP relatively high.
Of course, if he can get on base enough, he'll be the lead-off hitter we have been craving. And if he can hit for enough power, he could be similar to a younger, faster Andres Torres, though probably not the type of power Torres has flashed so far, maybe the same amount of doubles and triples though, just not as many HR. That would be plenty good for our offense, which should have Posey and Pablo in the middle for years to come.
Showing posts with label 2010 Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 Draft. Show all posts
Monday, August 16, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
2010 Draft: What a Kick: Kickham Signed
Baseball America reported that the Giants signed 6th round pick Mike Kickham for $410,000. The MLB recommended max for picks after the 5th round is $150,000, so that is why it took so long to announce, this was $260,000 over the max and the MLB has been delaying their approval of signings in inverse relationship to the amount the deal is over slot, meaning the more overslot, the more delayed.
Of course, not all deals are delayed for that reason. Teams could be trying to keep the prospect at around slot, and business negotiations require the team starting low, the prospect's agent starting high, and working towards the middle until both parties are satisfied. But sometimes the two sides don't agree where the middle lies, and negotiations drag on until you get close to the deadline and one side finally caves.
For example, the team might want slot and offers slot while noting that's as far as they are going, but then the prospect's agent might think that stalling until the deadline might put pressure on the team to sweeten the deal, and once they realize that the team said what it meant, and meant what it said, finally agrees. And the opposite could certainly happen too, the prospect has a price he wants, the team waits him out, but finally decides that they would rather pay that than lose the prospect.
Great Giants 2010 Draft Coverage of Final Week Before Signing Deadline
There is a great fanpost on McCovey Chronicles by a Fla-Giant that covers all the remaining draftees who have not signed yet, with good research and analysis on what might happen by the deadline. I would highly recommend going there and reading, and he appears to be updating the post as signings happen, so you might want to re-check periodically. Fla-Giants also kindly provided links to previous posts he had done which had even more in-depth research and information on select draft picks.
I would also recommend reading the comments, Fla-Giant has been posting updates there, for example, he posted some news on the 38th round pick, Jake McCasland, about how his great performance appears to have convinced the Giants that he is worth the money he was asking for, which was 4th round money or better, which is roughly low $200K range or better.
More Kickham
Lastly, I would add some info on Kickham that I can't recall where I read it before but reading this fanpost reminded me, that the reason he fell to the 6th round was, per what I noted above about picks, because he had a set number in his mind that he wanted to sign for - "2nd round money" - and so teams did not draft him due to that demand. I guess the Giants liked Parker more, but thought Kickham was worth roughly 2nd round money and waited to select him in the draft.
And this gets back to what I said about negotiations above. 2nd round money last season was roughly $450-700K. Kickham signed for $410K, which was early 3rd round money. He and his agent set a higher offer hurdle, but they and the Giants were willing to meet somewhere in the middle.
Fla-Giant noted that he pitched a lot of innings so far, so he probably won't see any time in the minors, and I would agree with that assessment. I definitely see some instructional league and Fla-Giants thinks some Arizona Rookie League work.
Looking at Fla-Giant's research, Kickham reminds me of Jonathan Sanchez, similar height, lefty, fastball in the low 90's but touching mid-90's. Except Sanchez was drafted way late if I recall right. Kickham was ranked somewhere in the 2nd and 3rd round by the services. Fla-Giant noted that Kickham was ranked 68th overall by Keith Law, and in the top 110 by most rating agencies that Fla-Giant checked (BA ranked him 110th, with the comment, "The latest quality arm from Missouri State's pitching factory."). Perfect Game had Kickham ranked 87th just before the draft, and that was a drop from 81st the prior month, but more in line with Keith Law. Thus, in essence, the Giants picked up themselves another 2nd/3rd round pick but in the 6th round.
What John Barr Has Brought to Giants
And that is the dynamic that John Barr has brought to the draft for the Giants. Maybe it is because the news on prior drafts were not as detailed, but since he has come on, the Giants have been much more willing to draft players who fell for whatever reasons down in the draft. Previously, the Giants were more prone to draft players that nobody else thought was that good, most were ranked by Baseball America, I found in a previous study, at least one round or more later than when they were selected.
But since Barr was put in charge of the Giants draft, they have been more prone to draft players who fell in the draft for whatever reason. In prior seasons, the examples were more like Brandon Crawford and Roger Kieschnick, players who had a poor year but were highly thought of previously, but they did draft players like Conor Gillaspie, who fell because of his high salary demand.
Drafting Guys Who Fell Due to Salary Demands
Based on what I've read in Fla-Giant's post, this season the Giants appear to be doing more of what I've been hoping they would do: draft players who fell in the draft because of salary demands that turned off other teams, players like Mike Kickham. And it is not like the Giants are late copycats - they were the first I can think of to do something like that, when they drafted Travis Ishikawa late and gave him a near $1M bonus in the 2002 draft - but rather that they had not pursued that avenue as heavily as other teams, like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers have in recent seasons.
I'm glad that they are devoting more dollars to this effort, for as bad as the draft is in terms of finding talent, which I've shown in my draft study, this is still a numbers game, where the more prospects and the more talent you have, the greater the odds that you find a good player. By selecting and signing more of these players, the sooner the Giants will find that needle in the haystack.
And given their expertise in finding and developing pitching talent, it makes even more sense that pursue this avenue with regards to pitchers like Kickham, 23rd rounder RHP Alec Asher, and 38th rounder RHP Jake McCasland. And they also have selected a number of position players as well in this vein, starting with 2nd rounder CF Jarrett Parker, 19th rounder OF/1B Austin Southall, and 46th rounder 3B Caleb Hougesan. They probably lucked out with Southall, who would have been drafted early in the draft but fell due to his commit to LSU, but then he failed to get into LSU and now is committed to a JC, but really, as long as the money is good, he should sign.
Of course, not all deals are delayed for that reason. Teams could be trying to keep the prospect at around slot, and business negotiations require the team starting low, the prospect's agent starting high, and working towards the middle until both parties are satisfied. But sometimes the two sides don't agree where the middle lies, and negotiations drag on until you get close to the deadline and one side finally caves.
For example, the team might want slot and offers slot while noting that's as far as they are going, but then the prospect's agent might think that stalling until the deadline might put pressure on the team to sweeten the deal, and once they realize that the team said what it meant, and meant what it said, finally agrees. And the opposite could certainly happen too, the prospect has a price he wants, the team waits him out, but finally decides that they would rather pay that than lose the prospect.
Great Giants 2010 Draft Coverage of Final Week Before Signing Deadline
There is a great fanpost on McCovey Chronicles by a Fla-Giant that covers all the remaining draftees who have not signed yet, with good research and analysis on what might happen by the deadline. I would highly recommend going there and reading, and he appears to be updating the post as signings happen, so you might want to re-check periodically. Fla-Giants also kindly provided links to previous posts he had done which had even more in-depth research and information on select draft picks.
I would also recommend reading the comments, Fla-Giant has been posting updates there, for example, he posted some news on the 38th round pick, Jake McCasland, about how his great performance appears to have convinced the Giants that he is worth the money he was asking for, which was 4th round money or better, which is roughly low $200K range or better.
More Kickham
Lastly, I would add some info on Kickham that I can't recall where I read it before but reading this fanpost reminded me, that the reason he fell to the 6th round was, per what I noted above about picks, because he had a set number in his mind that he wanted to sign for - "2nd round money" - and so teams did not draft him due to that demand. I guess the Giants liked Parker more, but thought Kickham was worth roughly 2nd round money and waited to select him in the draft.
And this gets back to what I said about negotiations above. 2nd round money last season was roughly $450-700K. Kickham signed for $410K, which was early 3rd round money. He and his agent set a higher offer hurdle, but they and the Giants were willing to meet somewhere in the middle.
Fla-Giant noted that he pitched a lot of innings so far, so he probably won't see any time in the minors, and I would agree with that assessment. I definitely see some instructional league and Fla-Giants thinks some Arizona Rookie League work.
Looking at Fla-Giant's research, Kickham reminds me of Jonathan Sanchez, similar height, lefty, fastball in the low 90's but touching mid-90's. Except Sanchez was drafted way late if I recall right. Kickham was ranked somewhere in the 2nd and 3rd round by the services. Fla-Giant noted that Kickham was ranked 68th overall by Keith Law, and in the top 110 by most rating agencies that Fla-Giant checked (BA ranked him 110th, with the comment, "The latest quality arm from Missouri State's pitching factory."). Perfect Game had Kickham ranked 87th just before the draft, and that was a drop from 81st the prior month, but more in line with Keith Law. Thus, in essence, the Giants picked up themselves another 2nd/3rd round pick but in the 6th round.
What John Barr Has Brought to Giants
And that is the dynamic that John Barr has brought to the draft for the Giants. Maybe it is because the news on prior drafts were not as detailed, but since he has come on, the Giants have been much more willing to draft players who fell for whatever reasons down in the draft. Previously, the Giants were more prone to draft players that nobody else thought was that good, most were ranked by Baseball America, I found in a previous study, at least one round or more later than when they were selected.
But since Barr was put in charge of the Giants draft, they have been more prone to draft players who fell in the draft for whatever reason. In prior seasons, the examples were more like Brandon Crawford and Roger Kieschnick, players who had a poor year but were highly thought of previously, but they did draft players like Conor Gillaspie, who fell because of his high salary demand.
Drafting Guys Who Fell Due to Salary Demands
Based on what I've read in Fla-Giant's post, this season the Giants appear to be doing more of what I've been hoping they would do: draft players who fell in the draft because of salary demands that turned off other teams, players like Mike Kickham. And it is not like the Giants are late copycats - they were the first I can think of to do something like that, when they drafted Travis Ishikawa late and gave him a near $1M bonus in the 2002 draft - but rather that they had not pursued that avenue as heavily as other teams, like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers have in recent seasons.
I'm glad that they are devoting more dollars to this effort, for as bad as the draft is in terms of finding talent, which I've shown in my draft study, this is still a numbers game, where the more prospects and the more talent you have, the greater the odds that you find a good player. By selecting and signing more of these players, the sooner the Giants will find that needle in the haystack.
And given their expertise in finding and developing pitching talent, it makes even more sense that pursue this avenue with regards to pitchers like Kickham, 23rd rounder RHP Alec Asher, and 38th rounder RHP Jake McCasland. And they also have selected a number of position players as well in this vein, starting with 2nd rounder CF Jarrett Parker, 19th rounder OF/1B Austin Southall, and 46th rounder 3B Caleb Hougesan. They probably lucked out with Southall, who would have been drafted early in the draft but fell due to his commit to LSU, but then he failed to get into LSU and now is committed to a JC, but really, as long as the money is good, he should sign.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
2010 Draft Countdown: Status Check
Baseball America noted, or rather tweeted, over the past week that many deals have already been done, but that Selig and MLB are holding up the overslot deals, releasing/approving them slowly over time, essentially as a punishment to teams for willingly signing over slot, as he has no authority to punish teams for going over slot, other than to do this.
Gary Brown, our first round pick, was the 24th overall, and the slot last season was $1.242M. Jarrett Parker, our second round pick, was the 74th pick overall, and the slot last season was $492,300.
The last that I heard in terms of most over slot signings was just over $100K, so our draftees appear to want more the $1.35M and $600K, respectively, and counting....
Gary Brown, our first round pick, was the 24th overall, and the slot last season was $1.242M. Jarrett Parker, our second round pick, was the 74th pick overall, and the slot last season was $492,300.
The last that I heard in terms of most over slot signings was just over $100K, so our draftees appear to want more the $1.35M and $600K, respectively, and counting....
Saturday, July 03, 2010
My Thoughts on Gary Brown
Like many Giants fans, I was a bit underwhelmed by the selection of Gary Brown. The experts, like BA's Jim Callis, ESPN's Keith Law, Minor League Ball's John Sickels did not care for the pick, thinking that there were better options available. There were other, some bigger, names available, Nick Castellanos, Yordy Cabrera, Bryce Brentz, Jedd Gyorko, Brett Eibner, Zach Cox, Stetson Allie, and thus fans were not happy with the pick.
The most immediate sore point was his lack of walks this season. There was also the sinking feeling that the Giants drafted another great defensive CF lead-off hitter who don't know how to get on base, whether by hit or by walk. There is also the history of the Giants taking toolsy speedsters who end up fizzling on us in some way.
So, as I am wont to do, I researched all the comments on Brown, many of which are in my original post on the pick or in the comments, and they have been ruminating in my mind the past few weeks. I think I'm ready to discuss him and the various views of Brown.
#1 Knows How to Take Walks
First of all, he does know how to take a walk. He took plenty of walks in his freshman year when he wasn't as good of a hitter, better than the league average. He also took a lot of walks when he played in the Cape Cod league as well, particularly, again, when he wasn't as good of a hitter. His behavior there and in college games suggest that he will do what he needs to do to get on base: when he wasn't as good of a hitter, he took more walks to get his OBP much higher, and when he was a better hitter, he took less walks but the tradeoff is getting basehits, which helps generate more offense.
It is just that when you hit .438 like he did and for power, you generate more runs by hitting when the pitchers are giving you pitches that you can handle and hit them for base hits, if not for extra-bases. His OPS this season is even better than what Evan Longoria, playing in the same conference (same team even). In fact, it was the best of the past seven years of data I could find for the Big West conference, and players like Longoria and Kurt Suzuki had similar but still lower OPS than Gary Brown.
Also, his agent is Scott Boras. As much as I dislike what he does to baseball through his manipulations of the rules, I know that he understands how to market his players. I also know that to maximize his players' value, he will guide them as to what to do to get a bigger contract (he has sports psychiatrists on payroll and a fitness center that assists his clients). In Brown's case, clearly the advice to give is he needs to get on base, whether via hit or walk, and often, then use his speed to steal bases and to play great defense in CF.
The key is that not taking walks is OK if you can avoid strikeouts and use your speed to get a lot of hits and extra-base hits. As long as that combo leads to a high OBP, that is all that matters, so if he gets it via a high batting average and below average walk rate, so be it, as long as he's getting on base more than average.
Still, I think it is clear that he knows how to take a walk when he needs to, and when to swing for hits when he is able to do it at a good rate, for both average and power. And he does this while also avoiding strikeouts, which is a good way to end up with a high batting average too.
#2 Not Proven as Hitter But Looks Good
But that's true of almost all prospects, especially past the first few picks overall. Hitting is one of the hardest tools to develop in the majors. All potential draftees use aluminum bats growing up and in high school and college - it is just cheaper than wood bats that break. That is why leagues like the Cape Cod League, which uses wooden bats, are scrutinized so closely. Because there is a technique to using a wood bat that you just don't learn with aluminum bats, as wood bats only have the sweet spot on a certain area of the bat (label), while the aluminum bat has it everywhere and anywhere you hit the ball with it.
There is no consensus on Brown as a hitter. He does have a very busy stance - the scouting video on mlb.com shows his legs dancing and shaking all around before he hits, which reminded me of Joe Morgan's arm flaps. However, he acknowledged this in the interview after the selection and vowed to do everything he can to become a MLB hitter, whatever it takes. And some point out his problem walking this season, but hopefully I made it clear above that this appears to be a misconception.
And there are those who like him. Kevin Goldstein noted in an email published on MCC that "It's all kinds of funky, but the dude was on the same team with the #4 overall pick in the draft, and out hit him by almost 100 points. Oh, and he has power ... and he really drives the ball." Andy Seiler of MLBBonusBaby.com and Perfect Games feels that he has a "plus hit tool" to go with his plus plus speed and plus defense. Not as rosy, but Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com noted that "while his approach is unorthodox, he's got good overall hitting skills. ... [he] consistently gets the barrel on the ball ... the bat is always in the right place, particularly against fastballs." Dan Rawnsley of Perfect Games noted that Brown provides hitting and athleticism at a premium position, when analyzing him.
Allan Simpson of Perfect Games provided a very comprehensive scouting report on him at the Perfect Games website. He noted that Brown had "become a more polished hitter, both barreling up more balls and not getting himself out as often."
#3 Speed Demon with Plus Plus Speed
Obviously speed is his game. Most agree that he has plus plus speed, which helped him steal 27 bases in 31 tries (87%). Kevin Goldstein was very effusive about Brown's speed. He was in love with the fact that Brown could run 3.9 to firstbase from the right side (from what I remember, true speedsters can get to 1B in 4.0 sec, and most need to be a left-handed hitter so that they need those extra steps closer to 1B than a right-handed hitter like Brown). In his podcast (available on iTunes), he rated Brown's speed as an 80 (in the scout's scale, 80 is the highest rating you can give a player in any tool), which will make a great difference in CF.
Others also pointed out his speed. Patrick Elbert of Perfect Games concurred by noting that Brown has "game-changing speed" that would be a welcome addition in any spacious outfield. Baseball America's John Manuel mentioned Brown's "top-of-the-line-speed". Perfect Game's Allan Simpson wrote that his "best tool is his blazing speed, and it's a significant asset at the plate, on the bases, and in centerfield." John Barr, the Giants scouting director in charge of the draft, said that Brown "has plus-plus speed, which helps offensively and defensively. And as the old scout's saying goes, "you can't teach speed."
#4 Gold Glove Defense
Another clear plus is his defense in CF. That despite being an infielder all through high school and his first two years of college ball (2B and 3B). Some like he has the innate baseball sense to be good in the outfield in spite of his lack of experience there, while others (like Fred Lewis) who has played the outfield all his life show no feel for the position at all.
Some don't think he has a great arm, some think it's average, but Kevin Goldstein said in his podcast that Brown's arm is average to plus. In any case, with his plus plus speed, he will get to a lot of balls in CF, particularly those going into the gap in Death Valley at AT&T.
Perfect Game's Andy Seiler answered a question as to Gold Glove talent in the first round by saying that Brown was the only player potentially in the first round who could be a gold glove defender. He also noted that Brown has "incredible instincts for a player with limited experience in the outfield." Baseball America's John Manuel noted his "excellent defensive ability in CF." MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo noted that Brown didn't look good when he first started in CF, "but he's improved quickly in his routes and reading the ball off the bat." John Sickel's wrote, "His glove is highly regarded, and scouts love his work ethics and energy on the field."
Andy Seiler also noted that his "whole defensive package is the best in the draft class for CF and many scouts predict him to be a gold glove winner." Allan Simpson of Perfect Game noted that "he has excellent range in all directions, get good reads and jumps, and his arm strength is above-average. His raw speed allows him to play shallower than most centerfielders, enabling him to take away more than his share of hits. ... He has fully taken to his everyday status in CF, where his range and arm strength are significant assets."
#5 Intangibles and Other Qualities
He seems to rate high on other qualities as well. I like that he was willing to work on his stance. He could have just said that he's been successful doing what he does so why should he change it. John Sickel noted that "scouts love his work ethic and energy on the field." His athleticism is also noted by a number of analysts. Someone also noted his upside.
He is considered toolsy by most. Baseball America noted that his "tools are big." Allan Simpson pointed out his "boundless energy" and that "it was evident that Brown has matured in several phases of his game as a junior." He had previously noted in early season review that "Brown still needs to refine most aspects of his game to take full advantage of his speed," so his opinion clearly changed greatly.
Giants Thoughts
I am on board with the Giants selection of Brown. I think most people are aware of his negatives. I think the fastest way for a Giants fan to feel positive is to check out Perfect Game's report on Gary Brown here (scroll down to 24th pick) and to take Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein's comments into consideration. Allan Simpson's in particular because it gives his perspective early-season and end-season, giving you a view of how he improved and what his positives are.
Of course, there is no guarantee that he will develop and become a major league player ever, let alone a starter for us. Most 24th picks fizzle out somewhere in the minors. Once you get that far deep into the draft, the prospects selected have huge flaws that might never be fixed or developed out of them. Only 6 of the 45 players selected 24th before have played significantly in the majors, only 6 of 40 if you look at only the first 40 years. And there were two recent hits in Blanton and Billingsley, so only 4 of the first 37 had a WAR of over 5, and only Billingsley I would call a star in the league, the others were average or worse, though Rondell White was slightly above average, to be fair.
But his choice makes sense. At this point of the draft, any high school prospect will be very raw (see Wendell Fairley) and flaws (though tools) aplenty, so the odds are that they will take 4-6 years to develop and contribute. So it would make sense to focus on a college hitter who might contribute sooner, though perhaps not so high in potential.
Among the college hitters, Zach Cox is probably the best but he's no sure thing either, as there are rarely any sure things in the draft, even with the #1 pick overall. Plus he appears to want $5-10M else someone in the Top 10 would probably have selected him then, that is just too much for a hitter who does not play at a premium position like SS or C, nor hit for power. Some see him as a left-handed Bill Mueller with average defense. Hard to pay premium bonus money for a player like that.
Jedd Gyorko, who was mentioned by some as a possible Giants pick because they scouted him, might be OK as a hitter, but most reports has him moving to 2B as they didn't think he would stick at SS. Well, we have a lot of 2B prospects coming up the system in Noonan, Culberson, and Bond, plus still have Burriss who is still young enough and skilled enough to contribute as a starter if he ever gets healthy.
Stetson Allie was the best pitching alternative, if they don't go for a hitter, but I would defer to the Giants brain trust on pitchers they feel they must pick versus those they pass on.
All this left Gary Brown, Bryce Brentz, and Brett Eibner. Bryce provides power, but is a corner OF only and some questioned whether he can handle wood bats. And Baseball America felt that Brown had a better year than Brent. Eibner, "most feel that his future is as a pitcher," noted MLB.com, but he has hit well enough that he has stated that he wants to be a outfielder, hitting. So he is a possibility.
However, Brown appears to make the most sense. Brown plays CF, a position the Giants are weak in their farm system. Because his defense and speed is so good, he can be useful to the Giants even if he doesn't hit for much. But given that he is the best hitter by far in the Big West conference in the past 7 seasons, it would suggest that he would have as good a chance as anybody to hit, because Cal State Fullerton is regularly in the College World Series, meaning that they play at a high level regularly and he's among their highest performers in recent years.
His ability to avoid strikeouts is very important. Hitters who are good at doing this typically have a much easier time hitting .300 in the majors. So do hitters who can walk about as much as they strikeout, which he has done in college.
More importantly, he has done it in the Cape Cod League, where wood bats are used. Prospects have a hard time adjusting from using aluminum bats in their amateur status, as they need to learn how to hit with a wood bat. Not all make that adjustment. His BB% was 13% in 2008 and 7% in 2009. It represented a change in how he was handling the bat, as his OBP did not change much and was high both seasons, it was .364 in 2008 and .371 in 2009. His contact rate was 82% in 2008 and 90% in 2009. These all suggest that he will find his way to get on base, however he can do it, so that he can take advantage of his speed.
80 speed is rare to find too. And he has used his speed to good effect in college, culminating in 32 SB in 37 attempts in 2010 (86% success rate; you want 80%+ from base stealers). That speed will help him also on the bases as a runner. Bill James collects data on this and a player like Michael Bourn can add 55 bases in a season, or just over a win over average, just on base running and base stealing.
Add in Gold Glove potential in CF defense and the Giants look to have a strong up the middle defense with Posey at C, Brown in CF, Burriss or Noonan at 2B, and maybe Crawford or Adrianza at SS in a couple of years. Great defense in CF could add another win over average as well.
That is two wins right there just on running and defense, which means that even if he produced a replacement level of offense, he would be an average player, which would be useful to the Giants in CF because Rowand has not been doing it for us in CF, either offensively or defensively, let alone speed.
Gary Brown made the most sense at this point in the draft over the other players available. Most of the alternatives were considered about as talented, except for Cox, but Cox presumably wants a lot more money than Brown (though it must be noted that Boras is his agent), probably as much as Posey, but a left-handed Bill Mueller is not that attractive to me.
Given equivalent talent, Gary Brown made the most sense for the team to pick, as we have no CF talent close to making the majors, nor do we have any great options for leadoff either. And not that we don't have enough power in our system either, but Brown, given his speed and defense, look the most likely to be able to contribute something, anything, to the majors at some point in his career. The others, particularly high schoolers Nick Castellanos and Yordy Cabrera, might have more potential and more potential power, but there was a high likelihood of swinging and missing with them as well.
Plus, Brown was the top hitter for one of the top teams in the nation that regularly makes the College World Series. And he was the top hitter in a conference that produced both Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki, both of whom he out-hit. And Fullerton is also one of the highest ranked teams in the U.S. by Boyd's World, 5th by Iterative Strength Ranking, 8th by RPI, showing how good the team was, and he was the best hitter on that team, even better than Christian Colon.
Brown (2010): .438/.485/.695/1.180, ISO 257 (9 BB/12 SO in 210 AB)
Colon (2010): .358/.444/.630/1.074, ISO 272 (32 BB/18 SO in 257 AB)
Longoria (2006): .353/.468/.602/1.070, ISO 247 (40 BB/29 SO in 201 AB)
Blumenthal (2005): .410/.511/.557/1.068, ISO 147 (39 BB/21 SO in 183 AB)
Suzuki (2004): .413/.512/.702/1.214, ISO 289 (50 BB/25 SO in 252 AB)
He clearly knows how to hit for power, just not home-run power. But that works great in AT&T where we have gaps where fast runners can run forever, particularly if they hit it into Death Valley. And with his speed, he could run forever.
That is an overall package which is very attractive that I can appreciate. I still wish they would have gone for more potential in Castellanos or Cabrera, but I can understand wanting to get some value sooner plus wanting a more solid floor in what we might get in the end. I think it is safe enough to say that he will make the majors and be able to contribute, if only for a few seasons, while these two could fizzle in the low minors like Wendell Fairley has done so far, though he's doing better this season, relatively speaking. And if he can translate his tools to the majors, I think someone like Shane "the Flying Hawaiian" Victorino would be a good comp, with perhaps better defense or a faster, better stealing and defending CF Randy Winn in his prime. That's not great but pretty good to have in CF.
Perfect Game Scouting Report on Gary Brown
I thought I would highlight certain parts of their scouting report, which I think is significant because it provides an early season view and near end-of-season view, and because they are one of the premier sources of draft information on the web.
Early in the season, while positive overall, Simpson noted that "Brown still needs to refine most aspects of his game to take full advantage of his speed, arguably the best in the Cape Cod League last summer and the best in the college ranks this spring." He pointed out that Brown "can be overly aggressive, at times, and has a tendency to chase pitches, but has good hand-eye coordination and generally makes contact." He also mentioned Brown's power: "He also has surprising power in his slight 6-foot, 180-pound frame, but his swing is geared too much to drive pitches, rather than simply put balls on the ground to utilize his big speed." While impressed with his speed, Simpson added that Brown "needs to learn better base-stealing techniques..."
Still, good overall impression. His "best tool is his blazing speed, and it's a significant asset at the plate, on the bases, and in center field... he has legitimate top-of-the-order potential and plays with boundless energy." "Brown is an accomplished center fielder, despite spending much of his first two years at Cal State Fullerton out of position at third base. He has excellent range in all directions, gets great reads and jumps, and his arm strength is above-average. His raw speed allows him to play shallower than most center fielders, enabling him to take away more than his share of hits, while still being able to retreat on balls over his head." "All facets of his game have improved..."
He was even more positive with his late-season review. Brown has continued "to produce big numbers at the plate, and on the bases, through the spring." "It was evident that Brown has matured in several phases of his game as a junior, even as he still remains as aggressive as ever at the plate, as evidence by just nine walks and 11 strikeouts in 47 games. He's become a more polished hitter, both barrelling up more balls and not getting himself out as often. His game-changing speed has been more of a weapon on the bases, and he has fully taken to his everyday status in center field, where his range and arm strength are significant assets."
The most immediate sore point was his lack of walks this season. There was also the sinking feeling that the Giants drafted another great defensive CF lead-off hitter who don't know how to get on base, whether by hit or by walk. There is also the history of the Giants taking toolsy speedsters who end up fizzling on us in some way.
So, as I am wont to do, I researched all the comments on Brown, many of which are in my original post on the pick or in the comments, and they have been ruminating in my mind the past few weeks. I think I'm ready to discuss him and the various views of Brown.
#1 Knows How to Take Walks
First of all, he does know how to take a walk. He took plenty of walks in his freshman year when he wasn't as good of a hitter, better than the league average. He also took a lot of walks when he played in the Cape Cod league as well, particularly, again, when he wasn't as good of a hitter. His behavior there and in college games suggest that he will do what he needs to do to get on base: when he wasn't as good of a hitter, he took more walks to get his OBP much higher, and when he was a better hitter, he took less walks but the tradeoff is getting basehits, which helps generate more offense.
It is just that when you hit .438 like he did and for power, you generate more runs by hitting when the pitchers are giving you pitches that you can handle and hit them for base hits, if not for extra-bases. His OPS this season is even better than what Evan Longoria, playing in the same conference (same team even). In fact, it was the best of the past seven years of data I could find for the Big West conference, and players like Longoria and Kurt Suzuki had similar but still lower OPS than Gary Brown.
Also, his agent is Scott Boras. As much as I dislike what he does to baseball through his manipulations of the rules, I know that he understands how to market his players. I also know that to maximize his players' value, he will guide them as to what to do to get a bigger contract (he has sports psychiatrists on payroll and a fitness center that assists his clients). In Brown's case, clearly the advice to give is he needs to get on base, whether via hit or walk, and often, then use his speed to steal bases and to play great defense in CF.
The key is that not taking walks is OK if you can avoid strikeouts and use your speed to get a lot of hits and extra-base hits. As long as that combo leads to a high OBP, that is all that matters, so if he gets it via a high batting average and below average walk rate, so be it, as long as he's getting on base more than average.
Still, I think it is clear that he knows how to take a walk when he needs to, and when to swing for hits when he is able to do it at a good rate, for both average and power. And he does this while also avoiding strikeouts, which is a good way to end up with a high batting average too.
#2 Not Proven as Hitter But Looks Good
But that's true of almost all prospects, especially past the first few picks overall. Hitting is one of the hardest tools to develop in the majors. All potential draftees use aluminum bats growing up and in high school and college - it is just cheaper than wood bats that break. That is why leagues like the Cape Cod League, which uses wooden bats, are scrutinized so closely. Because there is a technique to using a wood bat that you just don't learn with aluminum bats, as wood bats only have the sweet spot on a certain area of the bat (label), while the aluminum bat has it everywhere and anywhere you hit the ball with it.
There is no consensus on Brown as a hitter. He does have a very busy stance - the scouting video on mlb.com shows his legs dancing and shaking all around before he hits, which reminded me of Joe Morgan's arm flaps. However, he acknowledged this in the interview after the selection and vowed to do everything he can to become a MLB hitter, whatever it takes. And some point out his problem walking this season, but hopefully I made it clear above that this appears to be a misconception.
And there are those who like him. Kevin Goldstein noted in an email published on MCC that "It's all kinds of funky, but the dude was on the same team with the #4 overall pick in the draft, and out hit him by almost 100 points. Oh, and he has power ... and he really drives the ball." Andy Seiler of MLBBonusBaby.com and Perfect Games feels that he has a "plus hit tool" to go with his plus plus speed and plus defense. Not as rosy, but Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com noted that "while his approach is unorthodox, he's got good overall hitting skills. ... [he] consistently gets the barrel on the ball ... the bat is always in the right place, particularly against fastballs." Dan Rawnsley of Perfect Games noted that Brown provides hitting and athleticism at a premium position, when analyzing him.
Allan Simpson of Perfect Games provided a very comprehensive scouting report on him at the Perfect Games website. He noted that Brown had "become a more polished hitter, both barreling up more balls and not getting himself out as often."
#3 Speed Demon with Plus Plus Speed
Obviously speed is his game. Most agree that he has plus plus speed, which helped him steal 27 bases in 31 tries (87%). Kevin Goldstein was very effusive about Brown's speed. He was in love with the fact that Brown could run 3.9 to firstbase from the right side (from what I remember, true speedsters can get to 1B in 4.0 sec, and most need to be a left-handed hitter so that they need those extra steps closer to 1B than a right-handed hitter like Brown). In his podcast (available on iTunes), he rated Brown's speed as an 80 (in the scout's scale, 80 is the highest rating you can give a player in any tool), which will make a great difference in CF.
Others also pointed out his speed. Patrick Elbert of Perfect Games concurred by noting that Brown has "game-changing speed" that would be a welcome addition in any spacious outfield. Baseball America's John Manuel mentioned Brown's "top-of-the-line-speed". Perfect Game's Allan Simpson wrote that his "best tool is his blazing speed, and it's a significant asset at the plate, on the bases, and in centerfield." John Barr, the Giants scouting director in charge of the draft, said that Brown "has plus-plus speed, which helps offensively and defensively. And as the old scout's saying goes, "you can't teach speed."
#4 Gold Glove Defense
Another clear plus is his defense in CF. That despite being an infielder all through high school and his first two years of college ball (2B and 3B). Some like he has the innate baseball sense to be good in the outfield in spite of his lack of experience there, while others (like Fred Lewis) who has played the outfield all his life show no feel for the position at all.
Some don't think he has a great arm, some think it's average, but Kevin Goldstein said in his podcast that Brown's arm is average to plus. In any case, with his plus plus speed, he will get to a lot of balls in CF, particularly those going into the gap in Death Valley at AT&T.
Perfect Game's Andy Seiler answered a question as to Gold Glove talent in the first round by saying that Brown was the only player potentially in the first round who could be a gold glove defender. He also noted that Brown has "incredible instincts for a player with limited experience in the outfield." Baseball America's John Manuel noted his "excellent defensive ability in CF." MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo noted that Brown didn't look good when he first started in CF, "but he's improved quickly in his routes and reading the ball off the bat." John Sickel's wrote, "His glove is highly regarded, and scouts love his work ethics and energy on the field."
Andy Seiler also noted that his "whole defensive package is the best in the draft class for CF and many scouts predict him to be a gold glove winner." Allan Simpson of Perfect Game noted that "he has excellent range in all directions, get good reads and jumps, and his arm strength is above-average. His raw speed allows him to play shallower than most centerfielders, enabling him to take away more than his share of hits. ... He has fully taken to his everyday status in CF, where his range and arm strength are significant assets."
#5 Intangibles and Other Qualities
He seems to rate high on other qualities as well. I like that he was willing to work on his stance. He could have just said that he's been successful doing what he does so why should he change it. John Sickel noted that "scouts love his work ethic and energy on the field." His athleticism is also noted by a number of analysts. Someone also noted his upside.
He is considered toolsy by most. Baseball America noted that his "tools are big." Allan Simpson pointed out his "boundless energy" and that "it was evident that Brown has matured in several phases of his game as a junior." He had previously noted in early season review that "Brown still needs to refine most aspects of his game to take full advantage of his speed," so his opinion clearly changed greatly.
Giants Thoughts
I am on board with the Giants selection of Brown. I think most people are aware of his negatives. I think the fastest way for a Giants fan to feel positive is to check out Perfect Game's report on Gary Brown here (scroll down to 24th pick) and to take Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein's comments into consideration. Allan Simpson's in particular because it gives his perspective early-season and end-season, giving you a view of how he improved and what his positives are.
Of course, there is no guarantee that he will develop and become a major league player ever, let alone a starter for us. Most 24th picks fizzle out somewhere in the minors. Once you get that far deep into the draft, the prospects selected have huge flaws that might never be fixed or developed out of them. Only 6 of the 45 players selected 24th before have played significantly in the majors, only 6 of 40 if you look at only the first 40 years. And there were two recent hits in Blanton and Billingsley, so only 4 of the first 37 had a WAR of over 5, and only Billingsley I would call a star in the league, the others were average or worse, though Rondell White was slightly above average, to be fair.
But his choice makes sense. At this point of the draft, any high school prospect will be very raw (see Wendell Fairley) and flaws (though tools) aplenty, so the odds are that they will take 4-6 years to develop and contribute. So it would make sense to focus on a college hitter who might contribute sooner, though perhaps not so high in potential.
Among the college hitters, Zach Cox is probably the best but he's no sure thing either, as there are rarely any sure things in the draft, even with the #1 pick overall. Plus he appears to want $5-10M else someone in the Top 10 would probably have selected him then, that is just too much for a hitter who does not play at a premium position like SS or C, nor hit for power. Some see him as a left-handed Bill Mueller with average defense. Hard to pay premium bonus money for a player like that.
Jedd Gyorko, who was mentioned by some as a possible Giants pick because they scouted him, might be OK as a hitter, but most reports has him moving to 2B as they didn't think he would stick at SS. Well, we have a lot of 2B prospects coming up the system in Noonan, Culberson, and Bond, plus still have Burriss who is still young enough and skilled enough to contribute as a starter if he ever gets healthy.
Stetson Allie was the best pitching alternative, if they don't go for a hitter, but I would defer to the Giants brain trust on pitchers they feel they must pick versus those they pass on.
All this left Gary Brown, Bryce Brentz, and Brett Eibner. Bryce provides power, but is a corner OF only and some questioned whether he can handle wood bats. And Baseball America felt that Brown had a better year than Brent. Eibner, "most feel that his future is as a pitcher," noted MLB.com, but he has hit well enough that he has stated that he wants to be a outfielder, hitting. So he is a possibility.
However, Brown appears to make the most sense. Brown plays CF, a position the Giants are weak in their farm system. Because his defense and speed is so good, he can be useful to the Giants even if he doesn't hit for much. But given that he is the best hitter by far in the Big West conference in the past 7 seasons, it would suggest that he would have as good a chance as anybody to hit, because Cal State Fullerton is regularly in the College World Series, meaning that they play at a high level regularly and he's among their highest performers in recent years.
His ability to avoid strikeouts is very important. Hitters who are good at doing this typically have a much easier time hitting .300 in the majors. So do hitters who can walk about as much as they strikeout, which he has done in college.
More importantly, he has done it in the Cape Cod League, where wood bats are used. Prospects have a hard time adjusting from using aluminum bats in their amateur status, as they need to learn how to hit with a wood bat. Not all make that adjustment. His BB% was 13% in 2008 and 7% in 2009. It represented a change in how he was handling the bat, as his OBP did not change much and was high both seasons, it was .364 in 2008 and .371 in 2009. His contact rate was 82% in 2008 and 90% in 2009. These all suggest that he will find his way to get on base, however he can do it, so that he can take advantage of his speed.
80 speed is rare to find too. And he has used his speed to good effect in college, culminating in 32 SB in 37 attempts in 2010 (86% success rate; you want 80%+ from base stealers). That speed will help him also on the bases as a runner. Bill James collects data on this and a player like Michael Bourn can add 55 bases in a season, or just over a win over average, just on base running and base stealing.
Add in Gold Glove potential in CF defense and the Giants look to have a strong up the middle defense with Posey at C, Brown in CF, Burriss or Noonan at 2B, and maybe Crawford or Adrianza at SS in a couple of years. Great defense in CF could add another win over average as well.
That is two wins right there just on running and defense, which means that even if he produced a replacement level of offense, he would be an average player, which would be useful to the Giants in CF because Rowand has not been doing it for us in CF, either offensively or defensively, let alone speed.
Gary Brown made the most sense at this point in the draft over the other players available. Most of the alternatives were considered about as talented, except for Cox, but Cox presumably wants a lot more money than Brown (though it must be noted that Boras is his agent), probably as much as Posey, but a left-handed Bill Mueller is not that attractive to me.
Given equivalent talent, Gary Brown made the most sense for the team to pick, as we have no CF talent close to making the majors, nor do we have any great options for leadoff either. And not that we don't have enough power in our system either, but Brown, given his speed and defense, look the most likely to be able to contribute something, anything, to the majors at some point in his career. The others, particularly high schoolers Nick Castellanos and Yordy Cabrera, might have more potential and more potential power, but there was a high likelihood of swinging and missing with them as well.
Plus, Brown was the top hitter for one of the top teams in the nation that regularly makes the College World Series. And he was the top hitter in a conference that produced both Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki, both of whom he out-hit. And Fullerton is also one of the highest ranked teams in the U.S. by Boyd's World, 5th by Iterative Strength Ranking, 8th by RPI, showing how good the team was, and he was the best hitter on that team, even better than Christian Colon.
Brown (2010): .438/.485/.695/1.180, ISO 257 (9 BB/12 SO in 210 AB)
Colon (2010): .358/.444/.630/1.074, ISO 272 (32 BB/18 SO in 257 AB)
Longoria (2006): .353/.468/.602/1.070, ISO 247 (40 BB/29 SO in 201 AB)
Blumenthal (2005): .410/.511/.557/1.068, ISO 147 (39 BB/21 SO in 183 AB)
Suzuki (2004): .413/.512/.702/1.214, ISO 289 (50 BB/25 SO in 252 AB)
He clearly knows how to hit for power, just not home-run power. But that works great in AT&T where we have gaps where fast runners can run forever, particularly if they hit it into Death Valley. And with his speed, he could run forever.
That is an overall package which is very attractive that I can appreciate. I still wish they would have gone for more potential in Castellanos or Cabrera, but I can understand wanting to get some value sooner plus wanting a more solid floor in what we might get in the end. I think it is safe enough to say that he will make the majors and be able to contribute, if only for a few seasons, while these two could fizzle in the low minors like Wendell Fairley has done so far, though he's doing better this season, relatively speaking. And if he can translate his tools to the majors, I think someone like Shane "the Flying Hawaiian" Victorino would be a good comp, with perhaps better defense or a faster, better stealing and defending CF Randy Winn in his prime. That's not great but pretty good to have in CF.
Perfect Game Scouting Report on Gary Brown
I thought I would highlight certain parts of their scouting report, which I think is significant because it provides an early season view and near end-of-season view, and because they are one of the premier sources of draft information on the web.
Early in the season, while positive overall, Simpson noted that "Brown still needs to refine most aspects of his game to take full advantage of his speed, arguably the best in the Cape Cod League last summer and the best in the college ranks this spring." He pointed out that Brown "can be overly aggressive, at times, and has a tendency to chase pitches, but has good hand-eye coordination and generally makes contact." He also mentioned Brown's power: "He also has surprising power in his slight 6-foot, 180-pound frame, but his swing is geared too much to drive pitches, rather than simply put balls on the ground to utilize his big speed." While impressed with his speed, Simpson added that Brown "needs to learn better base-stealing techniques..."
Still, good overall impression. His "best tool is his blazing speed, and it's a significant asset at the plate, on the bases, and in center field... he has legitimate top-of-the-order potential and plays with boundless energy." "Brown is an accomplished center fielder, despite spending much of his first two years at Cal State Fullerton out of position at third base. He has excellent range in all directions, gets great reads and jumps, and his arm strength is above-average. His raw speed allows him to play shallower than most center fielders, enabling him to take away more than his share of hits, while still being able to retreat on balls over his head." "All facets of his game have improved..."
He was even more positive with his late-season review. Brown has continued "to produce big numbers at the plate, and on the bases, through the spring." "It was evident that Brown has matured in several phases of his game as a junior, even as he still remains as aggressive as ever at the plate, as evidence by just nine walks and 11 strikeouts in 47 games. He's become a more polished hitter, both barrelling up more balls and not getting himself out as often. His game-changing speed has been more of a weapon on the bases, and he has fully taken to his everyday status in center field, where his range and arm strength are significant assets."
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 38-30: Aceing the Astros
The Giants are back in second place despite losing two of three to the Blue Jays, as the Red Sox put the hurt on the D-gers and swept them. They have lost four straight and seven of nine now. The rumor mill have them searching for pitching.
Speaking of rumor mill, the Giants are reportedly interested in KC's OF David DeJesus. Where he would play, I have no idea, but a Giants official was reported by Yahoo to say that there is "nothing happening" involving a deal for him. I suspect the Giants are just looking at all the available players and checking to see how much the other team wants for him. KC probably said "Bumgarner" and the Giants said "Thanks but no thanks."
Game 1: Roy Oswalt vs. Lincecum
MLB Notes:
Game 2: Brett Myers vs. Zito
MLB Notes:
Can never write off Myers but his history of futility against the Giants, tied with Zito's mastery of the Astros, suggest that the Giants have the edge in this start. Still, Myers is good enough that I would call it even with a lean towards the Giants.
Game 3: Wandy Rodriguez vs. Cain
MLB Notes:
Giants Thoughts
Looks like the Giants should win this series, with a possibility of sweeping again. But the Giants already swept them in two previous series, meaning that they would have swept the entire season 9-0 against the Astros if they were to repeat. Odds of that happening for any team is pretty low, so I would be happy with a series win, 2-1, which would leave the Giants with a 3-3 road trip, which is what you hope for on most road trips, coming out even, then winning at home.
The Giants struggles offensively in recent games is related to a short humdinger of a slump for Buster Posey: 3 for 31, .097/.125/.161/.286 in 8 games. He is getting a rest today, Bochy probably thought it best to do that against Oswalt, against whom many hitters either take a rest or continue a slump.
I'm sure there were plenty of fans who thought that they knew how to manage better than Sabean and Bochy after Posey broke out and hit well for many games, but his struggles now underscore what I've been saying all along about Posey and Molina: Posey is a wildcard as to what you get in a performance while Molina is more reliable. Molina hasn't been as good this season, but that is mainly related to his injury in May from a foul tip that eventually required a cortisone shot. He had a great April and I think if they would have rested him more after his injury (or better, DLed him and brought up Posey), he would not have hit so poorly. And in his last 8 games, he has hit .296/.296/.444/.741.
That is the thing with prospects, even top prospects, none of them are ever sure things, and many of them will struggle in their initial run in the majors before righting themselves. Some never do and fade away, another cautionary tale for prospect hounds who count their eggs before they are hatched. That is why it was a great move by the Giants to sign Molina and keep Posey in the minors so that he could continue learning to hit and handle catching.
People don't realize it but there is a huge difference in the talent level between AAA and the majors, so just because Posey was killing the ball in April, his MLE (a methodology which converts minor league stats into equivalent major league stats) had Posey only hitting in the low 700 OPS in April. He only started hitting in May, then went on a mini-slump like the one he is currently in, in mid-May, before hitting again and getting the call. That's a huge amount of small sampling problem, as that is his most MLB worthy stats, as his 2009 stats, as nice as it was, wasn't really that good in equivalent MLB stats term.
Hopefully Posey will figure things out soon. Houston is a good place because it is a nice hitter's park. But we don't know what will happen, which has been my point all along, that none of us knew what was going to happen with Posey, he could hit like crazy or he could be cold as ice. Who knew that he would do both in the space of about a month?
The Giants seem to give their position players about one month of stink-a-tude before they give them a kick in the rear and try other options more frequently (contrary to popular misconception, Fred Lewis got two months to get his butt into gear in 2009). Today's rest is just the first he's getting until he starts hitting again because our lineup cannot handle an automatic out like that (that is worse than the average Giants pitcher, I think) for very long.
The good news is that Renteria is back from the DL, and as much as fans seem to hate him, when healthy and in the lineup, he has been one of our better hitters. He is batting .337/.392/.424/.816 for the season. In today's lineup, despite his better hitting, it appears that Bochy is trying to keep the lineup as regular as possible giving all the moving parts, so he's batting Renteria 7th while the top of the lineup is Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Uribe, Burrell, and Sandoval. Molina will bat 8th, which is great because him hitting his regular self is a plus in the 8th position. And Renteria 7th is great, because his numbers are good at almost every position in the lineup except for cleanup and maybe batting third.
I am assuming that Bochy will be moving Uribe between SS, 3B, and 2B to give Renteria some regular starts, plus start giving Uribe a game of rest as well. That should get Renteria 2-4 starts per week for a while. And if Posey does falter and need to be sent down, then Renteria at SS, Uribe at 3B and Sandoval at 1B would be the regular configuration until the next cold spell on the part of someone.
Torres, however, appears to have cemented a starting role, as well as Sanchez, Huff, and Uribe. Molina and Renteria would probably start as long as they are healthy. Burrell has been great so far, but he was horrible with Tampa Bay, so we will have to wait and see what happens with him. Look at Posey, he was hot then now ice cold. Until Burrell does cool off, neither Rowand or Schierholtz will be seeing playing time, let alone regular playing time.
I would also note that Bumgarner had a masterful start in his last game, striking out 11. He has had a rough season up to now. But that is a combination of not having enough to handle professional hitters like those in the majors and AAA this season and him still young and learning.
I had forgotten, but one of his weaknesses as a prospect was that he only used his fastball in high school (father's orders) and only played with breaking ball pitches. So his dominance in the minors was related to how great his fastball is but he needed to add other pitches to his repertoire so that he could start in the majors. Most starters need at least three pitches, and he has been adding them to his fastball. Hopefully, the cutter he added this season is the last piece in the puzzle. His 11 strikeouts suggest that he is near and he could get the next #5 starter spot, which is the upcoming Saturday game against Boston.
I'm still pushing for the Giants to go to a 6 man rotation after the All Star Break. Bumgarner would be the 5th starter and either Joe Martinez or a free agent pitcher (Pedro Martinez?) would be the 6th starter. It would keep them on the 6 day schedule that they had at the start of the season with 5 starters and many off days early in the season. That would also take a couple of starts away from the other starters, giving their arms extra rest during the tough part of the season. It gives Bumgarner an opportunity to start regularly in the majors. It takes away starts from the #5 starter, assuming he is someone like Joe Martinez, Todd Wellemeyer, or Kevin Pucetas. And there is little letdown, hopefully, in taking starts away from Lincecum, Zito, Cain, and Sanchez and giving them to Bumgarner.
If we didn't have Bumgarner to put in the rotation and soak up starts, I don't think that would work as you would be taking starts away from your best starters and giving it to your 6th best starter, typically. But hopefully Bumgarner is not your 6th starter, hopefully he is good enough to have his name up there with Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez.
Other Giants News: DeRosa Out; Draft Signings
As tweeted by @JohnSheaHey and @extrabaggs earlier today, Mark DeRosa is officially out for the season. Baggerly notes that the surgery is not yet scheduled but that the tendon sheath will be fixed and carpal tunnel will be released to free nerve. It appears that this nerve to be freed is the one causing the numbness in DeRosa's hand that has been delaying the other sheath surgery that the leading expert who looked at DeRosa's condition said, "I can fix you."
The Giants have their draft signings posted here. Round 3 pick SS Carter Jurica and Round 4 pick RHP Seth Rosin has already signed. Another notable signing is Round 7 pick CF Charles Jones, high schooler, very raw but lot of potential power, very athletic, good defensively but, like most prospects, working on his hitting. They also reportedly signed Brett Bochy, which I saw tweeted during the day, but that is not on the site yet. But that was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Another name to watch, LHP Andrew Barbosa, whom the Giants had drafted two times before, who is 6' 8" and now a senior, has not signed yet.
Of course, Gary Brown is the main unsigned player, not surprising since he is handled by Scott Boras. The experts think that he will almost certainly sign with the Giants but that because it is Boras, he might hold out until the last minute to wring every dollar out of the team's hands. I have seen no pronouncement on slots, but it sounds like most of the early signers are basically around the slot for last season. The #24 pick last season was slotted for $1,242,000 (and that is what he signed for too).
I suspect that they probably want something in the $2M range (or around 10th pick), but frankly, none of the mock drafts had him selected that high, the highest I think was around 20th or 21st and none of the experts drafts had him in the teens, I'm sure of that. I'll write more on him soon, but I think he'll (that is, Boras) probably stalls until the last minute, which for someone late in the first round would be within a week of the signing deadline (only his top picks get to wait until the last minute) and he would sign from something in the $1.5M range.
Haven't heard anything on Jarrett Parker yet. His name never showed up on any first round draft mock draft and he barely made BA's Top 50 ranked by talent list. I suspect that he was selected partly because he fell but also because he'll be a backup should the Giants fail to sign Brown for whatever reason (not that I'm expecting that, I think that only happens if Brown has unrealistic expectations about the bonus he is going to get, and he might since he hit so well in his Junior season).
Here are all the draft picks and all the signings up to now:
Speaking of rumor mill, the Giants are reportedly interested in KC's OF David DeJesus. Where he would play, I have no idea, but a Giants official was reported by Yahoo to say that there is "nothing happening" involving a deal for him. I suspect the Giants are just looking at all the available players and checking to see how much the other team wants for him. KC probably said "Bumgarner" and the Giants said "Thanks but no thanks."
Game 1: Roy Oswalt vs. Lincecum
MLB Notes:
Giants: With two off-days in five days, the Giants were given the chance to skip a turn in their rotation. With the two off-days, Lincecum will already be pitching on one extra day's rest, so why hold back a two-time National League Cy Young Award winner? In his last start, Lincecum mixed his historical dominance (10 strikeouts) with his recent struggles (four walks, eight hits) in six innings of work, earning his seventh win of the season. He exited after six innings after being grazed on the back of his right shoulder by a ball hit by Miguel Tejada. Bochy said Lincecum would have left after the inning regardless, having thrown 111 pitches, and Lincecum expects nothing to come from the hit.
Astros: As the Astros kick off a three-game home series against the Giants, they will send their ace to the mound in search of his sixth victory of the season. Coming off a stellar performance in which Oswalt tossed seven innings, allowing only two earned runs on six hits with one walk and a strikeout, the hard-throwing right-hander will look to pick up right we he left off. With his last victory against the Royals, Oswalt now has 142 career victories, just two shy of tying Joe Niekro's franchise record.Going to be a tough game, particularly on the road against Oswalt, but Lincecum has beaten Oswalt in every matchup they have had so far. Have to lean towards Lincecum, but Oswalt can be tough too, though the Giants handled him well enough this season.
Game 2: Brett Myers vs. Zito
MLB Notes:
Giants: Despite taking only his third loss of the season, Zito was fantastic Friday night against the Blue Jays, throwing his first complete game of the season. If not for a first-pitch changeup to Alex Gonzalez that was belted for an eighth-inning solo home run, Zito may have come away with the win. What is worrisome for the left-hander is that six of the seven home runs he has allowed this season have come over his past five starts. Zito will look to continue his success against the Astros, whom he is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA against over five career starts.
Astros: In his last start, Myers was done in by one inning. The right-hander coasted through 6 2/3 innings before the Royals lit him up for a four-run seventh inning, thanks in part to a three-run home run from Scott Podsednik. Myers ended the day hurling 6 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits and four earned runs, with two walks and three strikeouts. Four of those seven hits came in the seventh inning. Myers will look to get back on track and climb back to .500 as he takes on the Giants at Minute Maid Park. In his career, Myers is 1-4 against the Giants with a 6.30 ERA in nine games.
Can never write off Myers but his history of futility against the Giants, tied with Zito's mastery of the Astros, suggest that the Giants have the edge in this start. Still, Myers is good enough that I would call it even with a lean towards the Giants.
Game 3: Wandy Rodriguez vs. Cain
MLB Notes:
Astros: Rodriguez got roughed up in his last start against the Rangers, where he gave up six runs in just three innings. He was sailing along through the first two until Rangers pitcher Scott Feldman hit a double off him with one out. From there, walks and hits led to a long inning, which would be his last in a 9-3 loss. Rodriguez will look to end his three-game losing streak against the Giants, who beat him 3-0 on April 6 in his first start of the season.Don't have to say much about Cain, he wasn't up to recent standards in his last start but he still pitched well enough to win but was let down by the offense once again. He has given up more than 3 runs in a start one in his last 10 starts, which for most pitchers would result in a 9-1 record, but he's only 6-4. Meanwhile, Wandy has been struggling lately (as well as struggling all season), so it looks like it should be a Giants win.
Giants Thoughts
Looks like the Giants should win this series, with a possibility of sweeping again. But the Giants already swept them in two previous series, meaning that they would have swept the entire season 9-0 against the Astros if they were to repeat. Odds of that happening for any team is pretty low, so I would be happy with a series win, 2-1, which would leave the Giants with a 3-3 road trip, which is what you hope for on most road trips, coming out even, then winning at home.
The Giants struggles offensively in recent games is related to a short humdinger of a slump for Buster Posey: 3 for 31, .097/.125/.161/.286 in 8 games. He is getting a rest today, Bochy probably thought it best to do that against Oswalt, against whom many hitters either take a rest or continue a slump.
I'm sure there were plenty of fans who thought that they knew how to manage better than Sabean and Bochy after Posey broke out and hit well for many games, but his struggles now underscore what I've been saying all along about Posey and Molina: Posey is a wildcard as to what you get in a performance while Molina is more reliable. Molina hasn't been as good this season, but that is mainly related to his injury in May from a foul tip that eventually required a cortisone shot. He had a great April and I think if they would have rested him more after his injury (or better, DLed him and brought up Posey), he would not have hit so poorly. And in his last 8 games, he has hit .296/.296/.444/.741.
That is the thing with prospects, even top prospects, none of them are ever sure things, and many of them will struggle in their initial run in the majors before righting themselves. Some never do and fade away, another cautionary tale for prospect hounds who count their eggs before they are hatched. That is why it was a great move by the Giants to sign Molina and keep Posey in the minors so that he could continue learning to hit and handle catching.
People don't realize it but there is a huge difference in the talent level between AAA and the majors, so just because Posey was killing the ball in April, his MLE (a methodology which converts minor league stats into equivalent major league stats) had Posey only hitting in the low 700 OPS in April. He only started hitting in May, then went on a mini-slump like the one he is currently in, in mid-May, before hitting again and getting the call. That's a huge amount of small sampling problem, as that is his most MLB worthy stats, as his 2009 stats, as nice as it was, wasn't really that good in equivalent MLB stats term.
Hopefully Posey will figure things out soon. Houston is a good place because it is a nice hitter's park. But we don't know what will happen, which has been my point all along, that none of us knew what was going to happen with Posey, he could hit like crazy or he could be cold as ice. Who knew that he would do both in the space of about a month?
The Giants seem to give their position players about one month of stink-a-tude before they give them a kick in the rear and try other options more frequently (contrary to popular misconception, Fred Lewis got two months to get his butt into gear in 2009). Today's rest is just the first he's getting until he starts hitting again because our lineup cannot handle an automatic out like that (that is worse than the average Giants pitcher, I think) for very long.
The good news is that Renteria is back from the DL, and as much as fans seem to hate him, when healthy and in the lineup, he has been one of our better hitters. He is batting .337/.392/.424/.816 for the season. In today's lineup, despite his better hitting, it appears that Bochy is trying to keep the lineup as regular as possible giving all the moving parts, so he's batting Renteria 7th while the top of the lineup is Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Uribe, Burrell, and Sandoval. Molina will bat 8th, which is great because him hitting his regular self is a plus in the 8th position. And Renteria 7th is great, because his numbers are good at almost every position in the lineup except for cleanup and maybe batting third.
I am assuming that Bochy will be moving Uribe between SS, 3B, and 2B to give Renteria some regular starts, plus start giving Uribe a game of rest as well. That should get Renteria 2-4 starts per week for a while. And if Posey does falter and need to be sent down, then Renteria at SS, Uribe at 3B and Sandoval at 1B would be the regular configuration until the next cold spell on the part of someone.
Torres, however, appears to have cemented a starting role, as well as Sanchez, Huff, and Uribe. Molina and Renteria would probably start as long as they are healthy. Burrell has been great so far, but he was horrible with Tampa Bay, so we will have to wait and see what happens with him. Look at Posey, he was hot then now ice cold. Until Burrell does cool off, neither Rowand or Schierholtz will be seeing playing time, let alone regular playing time.
I would also note that Bumgarner had a masterful start in his last game, striking out 11. He has had a rough season up to now. But that is a combination of not having enough to handle professional hitters like those in the majors and AAA this season and him still young and learning.
I had forgotten, but one of his weaknesses as a prospect was that he only used his fastball in high school (father's orders) and only played with breaking ball pitches. So his dominance in the minors was related to how great his fastball is but he needed to add other pitches to his repertoire so that he could start in the majors. Most starters need at least three pitches, and he has been adding them to his fastball. Hopefully, the cutter he added this season is the last piece in the puzzle. His 11 strikeouts suggest that he is near and he could get the next #5 starter spot, which is the upcoming Saturday game against Boston.
I'm still pushing for the Giants to go to a 6 man rotation after the All Star Break. Bumgarner would be the 5th starter and either Joe Martinez or a free agent pitcher (Pedro Martinez?) would be the 6th starter. It would keep them on the 6 day schedule that they had at the start of the season with 5 starters and many off days early in the season. That would also take a couple of starts away from the other starters, giving their arms extra rest during the tough part of the season. It gives Bumgarner an opportunity to start regularly in the majors. It takes away starts from the #5 starter, assuming he is someone like Joe Martinez, Todd Wellemeyer, or Kevin Pucetas. And there is little letdown, hopefully, in taking starts away from Lincecum, Zito, Cain, and Sanchez and giving them to Bumgarner.
If we didn't have Bumgarner to put in the rotation and soak up starts, I don't think that would work as you would be taking starts away from your best starters and giving it to your 6th best starter, typically. But hopefully Bumgarner is not your 6th starter, hopefully he is good enough to have his name up there with Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez.
Other Giants News: DeRosa Out; Draft Signings
As tweeted by @JohnSheaHey and @extrabaggs earlier today, Mark DeRosa is officially out for the season. Baggerly notes that the surgery is not yet scheduled but that the tendon sheath will be fixed and carpal tunnel will be released to free nerve. It appears that this nerve to be freed is the one causing the numbness in DeRosa's hand that has been delaying the other sheath surgery that the leading expert who looked at DeRosa's condition said, "I can fix you."
The Giants have their draft signings posted here. Round 3 pick SS Carter Jurica and Round 4 pick RHP Seth Rosin has already signed. Another notable signing is Round 7 pick CF Charles Jones, high schooler, very raw but lot of potential power, very athletic, good defensively but, like most prospects, working on his hitting. They also reportedly signed Brett Bochy, which I saw tweeted during the day, but that is not on the site yet. But that was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Another name to watch, LHP Andrew Barbosa, whom the Giants had drafted two times before, who is 6' 8" and now a senior, has not signed yet.
Of course, Gary Brown is the main unsigned player, not surprising since he is handled by Scott Boras. The experts think that he will almost certainly sign with the Giants but that because it is Boras, he might hold out until the last minute to wring every dollar out of the team's hands. I have seen no pronouncement on slots, but it sounds like most of the early signers are basically around the slot for last season. The #24 pick last season was slotted for $1,242,000 (and that is what he signed for too).
I suspect that they probably want something in the $2M range (or around 10th pick), but frankly, none of the mock drafts had him selected that high, the highest I think was around 20th or 21st and none of the experts drafts had him in the teens, I'm sure of that. I'll write more on him soon, but I think he'll (that is, Boras) probably stalls until the last minute, which for someone late in the first round would be within a week of the signing deadline (only his top picks get to wait until the last minute) and he would sign from something in the $1.5M range.
Haven't heard anything on Jarrett Parker yet. His name never showed up on any first round draft mock draft and he barely made BA's Top 50 ranked by talent list. I suspect that he was selected partly because he fell but also because he'll be a backup should the Giants fail to sign Brown for whatever reason (not that I'm expecting that, I think that only happens if Brown has unrealistic expectations about the bonus he is going to get, and he might since he hit so well in his Junior season).
Here are all the draft picks and all the signings up to now:
| Name | Pos | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB | Round | Pick # | Signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Brown | CF | R / R | 6' 0" | 170 | 09/28/1988 | 1 | 24 | Unsigned |
| Jarrett Parker | CF | L / L | 6' 4" | 210 | 01/01/1989 | 2 | 74 | Unsigned |
| Carter Jurica | SS | R / R | 5' 11" | 185 | 09/23/1988 | 3 | 105 | 06/17/2010 |
| Seth Rosin | RHP | R / R | 6' 5" | 235 | 11/02/1988 | 4 | 138 | 06/17/2010 |
| Richard Hembree | RHP | R / R | 6' 4" | 210 | 01/13/1989 | 5 | 168 | Unsigned |
| Michael Kickham | LHP | R / R | 6' 4" | 205 | 12/12/1988 | 6 | 198 | Unsigned |
| Charles Jones | CF | R / R | 6' 3" | 235 | 07/28/1992 | 7 | 228 | 06/21/2010 |
| Joseph Staley | C | S / R | 6' 1" | 235 | 05/08/1989 | 8 | 258 | 06/21/2010 |
| Chris Lofton | CF | L / R | 6' 1" | 175 | 05/20/1990 | 9 | 288 | 06/17/2010 |
| Daniel Burkhart | C | L / R | 5' 11" | 215 | 03/06/1989 | 10 | 318 | Unsigned |
| Adam Duvall | 2B | R / R | 6' 1" | 205 | 09/04/1988 | 11 | 348 | 06/18/2010 |
| Stephen Harrold | RHP | R / R | 6' 1" | 200 | 03/12/1989 | 12 | 378 | 06/16/2010 |
| Mark Christman | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 180 | 08/26/1989 | 13 | 408 | 06/21/2010 |
| Raynor Campbell | IF | R / R | 5' 10" | 175 | 07/15/1987 | 14 | 438 | 06/17/2010 |
| Andrew Barbosa | LHP | R / L | 6' 8" | 205 | 11/18/1987 | 15 | 468 | Unsigned |
| Austin Fleet | RHP | R / R | 6' 1" | 175 | 04/17/1987 | 16 | 498 | 06/16/2010 |
| Ryan Bean | RHP | R / R | 6' 4" | 225 | 03/09/1990 | 17 | 528 | 06/21/2010 |
| Brandon Allen | RHP | R / R | 6' 6" | 190 | 08/15/1991 | 18 | 558 | Unsigned |
| Austin Southall | CF | L / R | 6' 2" | 208 | 05/01/1992 | 19 | 588 | Unsigned |
| Brett Bochy | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 182 | 08/27/1987 | 20 | 618 | Unsigned |
| Zachary Arneson | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 190 | 11/17/1988 | 21 | 648 | Unsigned |
| Robert Haney | SS | L / R | 6' 0" | 147 | 08/16/1988 | 22 | 678 | Unsigned |
| Alec Asher | RHP | R / R | 6' 4" | 215 | 10/04/1991 | 23 | 708 | Unsigned |
| Kyle Wilson | 3B | S / R | 6' 0" | 195 | 02/04/1987 | 24 | 738 | Unsigned |
| Brett Krill | RF | R / R | 6' 4" | 195 | 01/24/1989 | 25 | 768 | Unsigned |
| Jeff Arnold | C | R / R | 6' 2" | 205 | 01/13/1988 | 26 | 798 | 06/17/2010 |
| Eric Sim | C | R / R | 6' 2" | 215 | 01/03/1989 | 27 | 828 | 06/21/2010 |
| Gaspar Santiago | LHP | L / L | 6' 0" | 200 | 09/23/1989 | 28 | 858 | 06/21/2010 |
| Jose Cuevas | SS | R / R | 6' 2" | 190 | 04/05/1988 | 29 | 888 | 06/14/2010 |
| Ryan Bradley | LHP | S / L | 6' 1" | 180 | 07/15/1988 | 30 | 918 | 06/14/2010 |
| Kyle Hardy | 1B | R / R | 6' 3" | 220 | 07/29/1989 | 31 | 948 | Unsigned |
| Kevin Couture | RHP | R / R | 6' 0" | 170 | 04/20/1988 | 32 | 978 | 06/17/2010 |
| James Birmingham | LHP | L / L | 6' 5" | 180 | 08/02/1988 | 33 | 1008 | Unsigned |
| Johnathan DeBerry | CF | R / R | 5' 9" | 210 | 07/22/1988 | 34 | 1038 | 06/15/2010 |
| Stephen Shackleford | RHP | R / R | 6' 1" | 185 | 05/05/1989 | 35 | 1068 | 06/14/2010 |
| John Leonard | RHP | R / R | 6' 0" | 190 | 05/17/1989 | 36 | 1098 | Unsigned |
| Eric Sisco | RHP | R / R | 6' 3" | 200 | 12/09/1991 | 37 | 1128 | Unsigned |
| Jacob McCasland | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 215 | 09/13/1991 | 38 | 1158 | Unsigned |
| Tommy Tremblay | C | L / R | 6' 3" | 190 | 05/11/1991 | 39 | 1188 | Unsigned |
| Wes Hobson | 2B | L / R | 6' 0" | 187 | 11/12/1987 | 40 | 1218 | 06/15/2010 |
| Ryan Honeycutt | LF | L / R | 6' 0" | 195 | 09/06/1988 | 41 | 1248 | 06/15/2010 |
| James Roberts | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 180 | 12/11/1991 | 42 | 1278 | Unsigned |
| Raymond Ruggles | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 200 | 08/17/1986 | 43 | 1308 | Unsigned |
| Jake Shadle | RHP | R / R | 6' 2" | 175 | 04/25/1990 | 44 | 1338 | 06/21/2010 |
| Gregory Greve | RHP | R / R | 6' 3" | 200 | 01/05/1992 | 45 | 1368 | Unsigned |
| Caleb Hougesen | 3B | R / R | 6' 1" | 215 | 11/17/1991 | 46 | 1398 | Unsigned |
| Ray Hanson | RHP | R / R | 6' 7" | 235 | 02/27/1990 | 47 | 1428 | Unsigned |
| Devin Harris | RF | R / R | 6' 3" | 225 | 04/23/1988 | 48 | 1458 | 06/21/2010 |
| Dan Pellegrino | C | R / R | 5' 11" | 190 | 11/02/1988 | 49 | 1488 | Unsigned |
| Golden Tate | CF | L / L | 6' 0" | 180 | 08/02/1988 | 50 | 1518 | Unsigned |
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