Your 2017 Giants All-Star Break: A Few Eggs, Make Lemonade

What a difference a year makes!  A year ago, roughly, at the All-Star Break, the Giants had one of the best records in the MLB.  Since then, they have lost 101 games (including the playoffs).  My thoughts.

ogc thoughts

After the offense broke out in June of their poor performance in April/May, they returned to the badness of the start of the season.  Only Brandon Belt - who somehow always seems to be the whipping horse of Giants fan - produced out the regulars in July, before the break.  Everyone else, including Posey (even Slater, before his essentially season ending injury), hit poorly.

The pitching didn't do much better either, not as good as April/May, but at least better than their horrible June.  It is like the pitching and hitting just can't do well at the same time.  Though at least the offense was great in June, the pitching hasn't really clicked at all during the 2017 season, it has been all relatively bad compared to prior years.

Starting Pitching Been Bad

There are a variety of reasons for that.  Of course, the biggest one is that Bumgarner has been out because of his biking injury.  Blach has been decent in replacement, but he's been mostly an innings eater, perfect for the back of the rotation, not so much in replacing Bumgarner's normal production.  Not that I expected him to be a carbon copy, and a 4.59 ERA is actually decent for a rookie starter, but his great start gave me hope that he might deliver a better performance than this, with a very poor 4.2 K/9.

Cueto No Bueno

Cueto has been bad as well.  In a recent interview, he blamed it on him missing most of spring training, and not getting himself ready properly.  However, as Bochy noted when given this explanation by beat writers, said that might be true, but we're 3 months into the season now, he should have gotten into playing shape by now.  Of course, part of the reason he missed spring training was because he was busy dealing with his ailing father.  And he brought his father with him to the States to take care of him still, so perhaps he's still mentally dealing with that, and professional sports is already hard enough to play without distractions, and having a sick family member distract is a very understandable reason, assuming he's still dealing with that issue.

And distraction or lack of focus appears to be part of the answer for Cueto's woes.  His K/9 rate is up there with what he's been doing and is above his career numbers, but his walk rate and HR rate are both sky high, among the worse in his career, basically where he was when he first started in the majors.   And loss of focus would contribute greatly to a sharp increase in walks (50% higher than in recent years) and homers (also more than 50% higher), as he would make more mistakes into the zone and out of the zone, missing the corners.

Also, maybe he's not as into his "act" on the mound, as he has been in recent years.   He clearly had fun with that from what I saw of him previously.  Maybe it's not as fun with his father ailing, and he does not put as much effort into it.  Whatever the case may be, his 4.51 ERA is barely better than what Blach has contributed, which is nowhere close to what we should be expecting out of him.  That not only kills his trade value, which I had been hoping given this season, but increases the odds that he picks up his player's option, which, as much as I loved what he did last season, I did not want to commit that much to him over the next four seasons.  Hopefully the break will give his mind the rest he needs to reset and he can start pitching like he can during the rest of July (four starts) and showcase his trade value.

Moore Has Been Less

Moore has had a lost season.  He has been up and down, but mostly down, as apparently he has been struggling to thrown his normal repertoire of pitches because he added a cutter since joining the Giants, and that got him out of his normal mechanics enough to throw him off.  So he's stopped using that pitch, and has been searching for his former mechanics.

There is already talk among the beats and fans that perhaps the Giants should seriously consider not picking up his option for next season for $9M and instead buy him out for $1M.  This is ridiculous, because the assumption underlying that is that he can't even muster up a season like 2016, and unless there is something physically wrong, he should be able to do something like that, which was worth 2.0 BWar, which is worth roughly double the $8M extra we would be paying him for.   So the downside is that if he's still bad next season, as long as he can have a bounceback year and get back to a semblance of 2016, he should be able to give us 1.0 BWar, which would be production that matches his cost.  It's a risk, but I would take that type of risk, as long as the Giants don't think there is something physically wrong with him.

The Shark Is An Enigma 

How does one strike out 9.7 K/9 and only walk 1.1 BB/9 for a stupendously great 9.07 K/BB ratio, and still have an ERA basically the same as Ty Blach, who didn't even strike out half as many, while walking more?  4.58 ERA is not what one would expect.

The homers are doing him in, as he has a career high (as a starter) 1.4 HR/9 going this season, and much like his lost season with the White Sox, the homers appear to be doing in his ERA.   His H/9 is also high, so apparently when he's not striking out guys, they are making very good contact with his pitches.   His BABIP is a sky high .327, and that is his high for his career, worse since his first season as a starter.

Not only that, but hitters are hitting him like a power hitter, as overall, his ISO for hitters is 198.   That is just too many mistakes going into the hitters' wheelhouse.  There is no good reason for hitters to be hitting him that well.

I assume this is still part of the adjustments Samardzija has been making with the Giants Pitching Brain Trust.  When you are learning, you tend to make more mistakes, and it seems to me that was what was affecting him a lot with the White Sox, as they worked a lot with him too.   I thought that he made a lot of progress last season, and the great K/BB ratio suggests that he's still working on other lessons given him this season, with the poor ERA a sign that he's still struggling with parts of those lessons.

Looking at his game by game stats, there seems to be three distinct phases:

• Phase 1:  Starts 1-5:  He had a 6.32 ERA, and hitters were hitting him hard, .269/.338/.487/.826, with a .329 BABIP and 218 ISO.  And he had good enough peripherals, except for the homers:  31.1 IP, 32 hits, 10 BB, 35 SO, 6 homers.
• Phase 2:  Starts 6-12:  He had a great 2.98 ERA, and he was mostly containing the hitters, .259/.265/.422/.686, except for the power (163 ISO), though he got his homer-itis down, with only 4 homers in those 7 starts.  49.1 IP, 48 hits (for very high .355 BABIP), 1 BB, 59 K's.
• Phase 3:  Starts 13-18:  He had a 5.17 ERA, and the power output flew sky high as his strikeouts went down, with a .269/.283/.494/.777 for a 225 ISO (whole teams were hitting him like good sluggers).  In 38.1 IP, 42 hits, 3 walks, 33 K's, but 8 homers, for a nearly 2.0 HR/9 (goal is under 1.0 HR/9).   

Admittedly, very small samples, but still, they represent three different results.  In Phase 1, he was doing his thing and it wasn't working well.  In Phase 2, he was able to get his control and command down pretty well, but kept on missing badly on occasion, when the hitter would make him pay, with with so few runners on, not many runs scored.  In Phase 3, it appears that he adjusted his style to strikeout less guys in order to induce less contact, which worked in reducing his BABIP down to the normal mean, but ended up with him giving up even more homers.  If it was just the hitters adjusting to him, then I would think that his BABIP would have gotten worse.

Hopefully Phase 4 begins after the ASB.  The coaches will break down what's working and what's not, and he will clear his mind of some of the clutter of the season.   I would just let him continue doing what he was doing when he was going good and work from there, letting him consolidate the learning of this season, and stop changing him, which will only lead to more mistakes.

As I discussed when we first signed him, I view the signings of him and Cueto as a pair of matching bookends.   Cueto is the co-ace to pair up with Bumgarner for the first two seasons, while the Giants work on Samardzija to get him up to ace level performance.   As much as we are paying him, salaries in baseball today is such that we are only paying him for slightly better than average WAR production, roughly short of 2.5 WAR, which he more than delivered last season, and is falling short of this season, but over the two seasons, should be pretty close to break even.

I was hoping for quicker results, but I guess the Brain Trust had its work cut out with the Shark.  Still, we have some time still, the rest of this season, for him to figure things out going forward.  That's why I'm against any of the talk about trading him off.  They seem to be getting close to figuring him out, and just need to fine tune some things to get him there.

And there is no rush to get rid of him either, we will still need him in future seasons, as even if Cueto opts to stay, Cain will be leaving the rotation before the 2018 season, and perhaps soon, and Beede has been having growing pains in AAA this season, leaving Blach as the only alternative there, unless Suarez can continue to develop.  If Samardzija is traded, that's two rotation spots we need to fill, and if Cueto does decide to opt out (ominous that he complained about the lack of Latin players on the roster; ironic as there was plenty not that long ago), that would be three spots.

Thus, I don't see how the Giants can trade off either of Moore or Samardzija, as some have suggested, that's just too many rotation spots filled with question marks, and even if they could sign a free agent, they will have great leverage on the Giants (something Sabean hates) with that many spots open, and only Blach, Beede, Suarez, Stratton as possible starters.  Plus, there is the possibility of Cain being re-signed after the Giants buy him out, but, as I think his time with us is done.

Cain is Not Able

I was totally wrong about Cain.  He appeared to be figuring things out last season, just before he got injured, but that apparently was a mirage, as he has not been good, even in short stints, this season.  Nothings shows this more than his very poor 5.3 K/9 for the season and 1.39 K/BB ratio.  And he did have a nice 4 game stretch in April, after having a full spring training where he wasn't doing well but was excusing it by saying that he was working on things for the season.

But it is almost like he injured himself somehow after the San Diego game or during the Reds game that started his debacle stretch of the season.  Only one start after that with over 4 strikeouts.  And homeruns galore, 11 given up in those 12 starts, 63.0 IP but only 31 K's but also 27 walks.  That added up to a 7.00 ERA and .928 OPS, as well as a .360 BABIP.   As poorly as Blach has pitched in recent games, Cain has been horrible, and most likely will be the pitcher leaving the rotation when Bumgarner returns.
Though, to be fair, in Blach's last 6 starts:  6.95 ERA, 33.2 IP, 50 hits, 4 homers, only 20 K's, but at least only 8 walks, still for a .932 OPS and .380 BABIP, which is pretty much as bad as Cain has been.  So perhaps the Giants will allow Cain to finish up the season as a starter, though they did skip his last start of the first half in order to throw Cueto out there, upon which he pitched even worse than how Cain had been pitching.   Based on this, I would be OK with letting Cain finish up the season in the rotation, if they want to respect him in that way, though obviously the best thing would be to DFA him and let Blach pitch and learn.  The decision will be interesting.

Plans for the Rest of the Season

The Giants are in prime draft position for next season:  they have the second pick, currently.  Too bad it wasn't for this season, as then we could have gotten Hunter Greene, he would have been an interesting prospect for the Giants to have.

In any case, I'm all for trading off Cueto and Nunez, and perhaps others (Span? Pence?), but not any of our homegrown guys nor our rotation, as I assume the plan to do reload and try to get into the playoffs again in 2018.  Trading off beyond those two don't really make any sense unless we get back something more than what we gave up, and since we'll be trading with playoff contenders, that type of trade won't make sense for them to do.

I assume both are tradeable.  At this point, I don't even need much, even though I once harbored dreams of getting a nice batch of prospects for Cueto.   Then the team would be set up for staying in prime draft position.

With Cueto gone, our rotation would be Bumgarner, Samardzija, Moore, Blach, and Cain.  With Moore, Blach, and Cain struggling to find a way to be good, there should be enough poor performances there to keep us near the bottom, and thus near the top of the draft.  In addition, both Bumgarner and Samardzija have their own question marks.

Bumgarner is no guarantee to bust out of the gates as his usual self, as he has a recent history of poor starts to the season, plus he really hasn't had any spring training preparedness to be starting the second game of the second half.  It would not be surprising if he is rusty in his first few starts back, which is just fine for this scenario.  Then he could work himself into his usual MadBum shape sometime in August and finish strongly to lead into 2018.

Samardzija, in addition, has been horrible in his last five starts.  There is no guarantee that he will get back to what he was doing in May and June, nor what he was doing for much of 2016 (he did finish 2016 with a 3.66 ERA in the second half and had a 3.14 ERA on June 17, before a bad 8 start stretch from then to early August, 6.99 ERA, killed his overall ERA).  Interesting how the wheels came off this season on June 16, while it came off on June 22 last season.  For 2015, it was June 2nd.  June 1st for 2014.  June 8th for 2013.  So that seems to be a thing for him, but the good news is that he usually comes back sometimes after that.

With Nunez traded, then the lineup would be Span (may as well not start Gorkys anymore in platoon), Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence, Crawford, Hwang, Hernandez (since Slater is out for the season, basically, Parker isn't ready, and Williamson was just sent down to AAA).  Hwang and Hernandez are question marks, and Span has been up and down, with him being really down against LHP.  Plus, Pence and Crawford have not been hitting as well as expected, and Panik has been up and down.  That is not a recipe for a strong offense, and relieving our budget of Cueto would allow the Giants to pick up a free agent starting LF next season.

Your 2018 Giants

And running through our options for 2018, it is no slamdunk that the team will be playoff competitive next season.

We will need Bumgarner to return to normal, while both Samardzija and Moore pitch more like their good selves and not their bad selves.  We'll also need some growth from Blach and probably Beede (Suarez?) for the back of the rotation to be respectable.  Sure, they are all reasonable on a one-by-one basis, but adding up all those probabilities will leave a lot of scenarios where the rotation will falter in some way.

The lineup would look as good as expected in 2017, but will players return to prior norms and not repeat 2017?  Will Pence be like he was before?  Will Crawford, who is not as far into his 30's, be able to duplicate peak year production of 2015-2016?  Will Panik ever get back to his goodness in his first full season?  And hopefully Belt and Posey will be as good as usual.

And I still don't understand the hate on Belt.  The latest complaint I've seen is how inconsistent he is.  Over the last three seasons, 2015-2017, on a monthly basis, with at least 23 starts in the month, out of 14 months (and I'm counting this July even though he's not at 23 games started yet, but is hitting .994 OPS), he only has one month under .714 OPS, only 2 months under .766 OPS, and only 4 months under .799 OPS, which is pretty good.  It is not as great as the leading offensive hitters in the majors, sure, but 1) we aren't paying him at that level, 2) he brings a lot of defensive value (roughly 1 win per season with his defense per DRS over the 2015-2017 period), 3) he's still the second best hitter on the team behind Posey, no matter what anybody has said about his offense, he led in OPS in 2013, was injured a lot in 2014, was second to Posey in 2015, led the team by a lot in 2016, and is second to Posey again in 2017.   His offense is the least to complain about in our lineup, there are a lot more disappointments among Pence, Crawford, Panik, 3B (except for Nunez), and LF (except for Slater), plus the bench, except for Hundley.

Still, it seems like a lot of the issues the team has been having are BABIP related and thus some hope for regression to the mean in 2018.  It is just that it seems to be killing both hitters and pitchers alike, for the most part, so is it BABIP bad luck, or the inevitable decline that age brings?

Hence why we need a burst of prospect magic dust by holding onto this primo draft position.  No team should play to get to this position.  But since we are here now, why not take advantage of it and just float along for the rest of the season?

Even if the Giants play decent .500 ball the rest of the way, the team will still end up 70-92.  That would have given us the 8th pick last season.  And just to get to .500 overall would take a .653 winning percentage the rest of the season (a 105 win-rate for a season!).  If the Giants play at the same poor rate for the rest of the season, they are headed for a 101 loss season.  One of the beat writers (or many more) noted that the Giants are so far behind right now that it is the worse we have been behind since the 1902 New York Giants.  And their winning percentage right now might be riding high, after their recent winning streak boosted things, as they were battling for the worse record overall at that time.

May as well play the hand dealt us and keep to the bottom, like we did in 1986, the last time in recent memory the team played so badly overall.  That netted us the Will Clark pick that turned the franchise around.  Don't muck around and try to win more, like they did in 2013 at the end of the season, pushing themselves out of a Top 10 overall pick.

Of course, even top picks are not slam dunks, but they are as near as we will ever get with anything in baseball.  And as I noted in my business plan, that's the way a team can rebuild, by losing and losing badly, like the Braves did before in the 80's to build the base for the 90's.

So I hope the Giants management take it easy with the team and the roster.  Trade away guys who might not be around anyway, in Cueto and Nunez.  If contenders really need a reliever, I would be willing to trade away older relievers Strickland, Gearrin, Kontos, Osich, even Melancon, in the right deal (netting a good prospect for little money; and must keep Dyson if this happens).  Relievers are not fungible, but we have a lot of young talent in the minors, bring them up and see what they can do as a reliever.  If anyone would take Span without much money sent along, trade him.  Same with Pence, as much as I would prefer to keep him, but cutting a big salary will open up options on free agency for 2018 (with Cain and Nunez salaries off, plus perhaps Cueto and others).  

Play the young guys more, by platooning with the older guys, or just start them (Hwang in 3B, young guy in LF), that's win-win, as we saw with Arroyo and Slater:  if they struggle, they should learn from the experience, and at worse, the Giants have a better handle on their actual MLB value, and if they hit/pitch, then you got another nice player.

Slater looks like he can be a nice complementary player, for example.  One has to think that his poor player recently was due to him already dealing with some pain from the muscle he eventually pulled off his bone, he probably had already injured himself and kept it quiet until it ripped off.  Too bad on the timing, but he should be given a great shot to win a spot in spring training for 2018, if not a chance to start in LF.

The Professor Gets Tenure: Giants Sign Crawford to 6 Year, $75M Contract

It has been reported by all the beat writers, which will be officially announced in news conference on Wednesday:

• Pavlovic
• Baggarly
• Schulman
• Haft

He gets a $1.2M bonus, then $5.8M in 2016, $8M in 2017, then $15M from 2018-2021, covering his second and third arbitration seasons, then four of his free agents years, covering him to age 34 season.  Now only Crawford and Posey are signed for the 2021 season, though I expect Bumgarner to join them within the next season or two.  He has a full no-trade clause and no option language.  

He and the team had briefly discussed an extension last spring, but the conversation never got serious.  However, that discussion began the process and then the talks picked up earlier this month, as the extension took a high priority for the front office.  And now they got this bit of business done before getting hot and heavy into the free agency market.

Your 2011 Giants are 10-11: Boarding the Pirates Ship

Whoa, that series couldn't have gone much worse.  Our pitching just didn't have it, but neither did the offense.  However, that is more of what people thought the Braves would be this season - good hitting, great pitching - and they finally showed up, after an 8-12 start.  Unfortunately, they decided to show up after stinking it up against the D-gers.

Now the Giants get to go on a 10 game road trip.  I'll bet the home "series" probably felt more like a road trip than being at home, because you fly in and you fly out.  They will face the Pirates, Nats, and Mets, in that order, 3-4-3.  They are 9-12, 10-10, and 9-13, respectively.

The Giants are playing three beatable teams and thus need to play up to their potential and come out of this trip at least 6-4, if not 7-3 since they got swept.

First, the Giants need to board the Pirates and hijack the games.  Obviously, ideally sweep the series but at this point, should just focus on winning series, 2-1, 3-1, than sweeping.  Most of all, the pitching needs to straighten up.  However, amazing how teams seem to straighten up against the Pirates.

Game 1:  Cain vs. Morton

Matt Cain:  Cain struggled through his first bad start of the season in his last outing, giving up six runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. He allowed three runs and 14 hits over his first 19 innings of the year.

Charlie Morton:  After throwing a complete game against the Reds on April 15, Morton struggled mightily against the Marlins in his latest start. The 27-year-old allowed six runs on 10 hits over five innings to earn his first loss of the season.

Matt Cain has been stellar in a park that favors LHB homers, probably because he does so well at neutralizing flyballs.  3 starts, 20.1 IP, 20 K's and 5 walks, only 20 hits, 1 HR.  Somehow they bunched them and he only has a 3.98 ERA in Pittsburgh, but his peripherals says that he has been dominant here before.  And he has, he has had 3 DOM starts - PQS 5, 4, 5 - here against the Pirates in 2007, 8, 9.  And against current Pirates, he has mostly shut down the hitters he has faced previously, only Garrett Jones has given him real trouble, most either have never faced him much or not done well.

Morton has pitched twice against the Giants in Pittsburgh, with a 2.08 ERA in 13.0 IP, 12 K's and 4 walks. However, he's been beaten pretty badly in SF, and while no batter has more than maybe 3 games against him, Rowand, Tejada, Whiteside, Huff, Burrell, and Fontenot all have OPS of over 1.000 against him. But it looks like he might have turned a corner last season, he was much better in the second half of the season with a 57% DOM, and appears to be continuing it into this season, though it also looks very flukey so far, his 3.33 ERA, because he only has 12 K's in 27.0 IP against 15 BB's, a horrible ratio no matter how you look at it.

I think Cain should win this game, he has been remarkably steady in delivering DOM starts and avoiding bad starts and since he had a bad start in his last outing, I have to think that he should have another good outing in Pittsburgh, whereas Morton, while he has a good ERA this season, looks like a train wreck waiting to happen, he has lucked out with a .250 BABIP so far this season.

Game 2: Vogelsong vs. McDonald

Madison Bumgarner (my take):  After having a much improved start in his third start of the season, he imploded in the third inning of his fourth start after getting squeezed by the umpires, for seemingly the umpteenth time this season.  He has been mediocre and lousy this season, up and down, and needs to get himself together.  He needs to loosen up and chillax.

James McDonald:   Despite working on his mechanics, McDonald's early struggles continued in his last outing. The right-hander gave up eight runs on six hits over just three innings in a loss to the Marlins.

As was hinted by Bochy earlier, by noting that Vogelsong will get the 5th starter spot, Bumgarner pitches this game and Vogelsong the next.  Bumgarner gets the easier assignment facing McDonald, who has been struggling a lot, while Karstens has not.  Bumgarner probably needs the lack of pressure so that he can let go and not try to force the matter with his pitching, as he appears to be trying to strike out batters 1-2-3 strikes yer out with each pitch (the pitcher's equivalent of a hitter trying to hit a 5-run homer).

Bumgarner has no history in Pittsburgh but as a LHP, has an advantage here in suppressing LHB power, as this park boosts LHB's power and hitting, while suppressing RHB's power and hitting.  So this could be the park to get him out of his funk this season, as he and the Giants struggle to figure out what is wrong with their wunderkind, who already has 2 DIS starts out of 4.

McDonald has a 10.13 ERA in 4 starts, 12 K's vs. 12 BB's in 18.2 IP, 25 hits, 5 HRs, so far in 2010.  He has a career 4.00 ERA against the Giants in Pittsburgh (and maybe also LA, hard to tell easily).  He has struggled to stay in the majors and continue to struggle, obviously.  Any other team, and he might be gone already and still might be soon, depending on how he handles the Giants.  Lots of guys with OPS over 1.000 against McDonald, albeit in 1-2 starts against him:  Sandoval, Schierholtz, Franchez, DeRosa, Posey, Rowand, plus Ross good.

Have to think that Bumgarner would normally be able to take down McDonald in this start, and the Giants win.  But we really have no idea whether he's back to normal or still the struggling starter, and thus it would be a toss of the coin for this game with a strong lean towards Bumgarner because of his success in the majors last season, whereas McDonald is struggling for his major league life in this start.

Game 3: Vogelsong vs. Karsten

Ryan Vogelsong:  Vogelsong has been great in the short time he's been in the majors with the Giants this season.  He has earned this starting assignment and looks good for a good start, given how well he pitched in AAA and majors so far.  

Jeff Karstens:  This will be Karstens' third spot start for Ross Ohlendorf. Karstens was strong in his last outing, giving the Pirates six efficient innings in a win over Washington. The only concern is that Karstens tends to tire when his pitch count gets near 75.

Andy Baggarly has a great article on Ryan Vogelsong today.  Great story, was traded from Giants to Pirates in Jason Schmidt trade, and after a long journeyman's journey which included a 3 year stay in Japan, he returns like a prodigal son to the Giants, the team he wanted to be with now because he enjoyed the organization when he was here before.  That is why he did not ask for an out option when he signed, he wants to stay here, unlike Suppan.  And he has pitched great and the comments by Bochy is that Vogelsong has learned to become a pitcher rather than a thrower.

Karstens has not been that good a pitcher in the majors, so what he has been doing this season is a bit of a surprise, though obviously over two games, anything can happen.  However, his peripherals last season was much better than his ending 4.92 ERA, as he had 72 K's vs. only 27 BB's, but unfortunately he had 122.2 IP and those balls fell in last season, 146 of them, including 21 HRs, and .311 BABIP.  And what people have to remember is that while generally pitchers mean BABIP is around .300, borderline pitchers like Karsten might legitimately have a higher BABIP than the mean.  FYI, his BABIP this season is also .311, though his career BABIP is .295 so far.  And if he's out by 75 pitches, the Giants get into their bullpen.

Hard to call this game.  Vogelsong vs. Karstens could go so many different ways.  Just call it even and see how it goes.  

Giants Thoughts

First, I have to point out a columnist's complaint against the Giants over the weekend.  I like his prose, so I won't out him, but he basically complained that the Giants showed Brandon Belt no patience whereas it took them all season to sit Pablo Sandoval in 2010.  Of course, the HUGE difference, clearly to me, is that Sandoval had a monster year in the majors in 2009 and thus earned the creds and respect to be kept up in 2010, whereas Belt has no experience at all in the minors and we don't know how well he will eventually do in the majors.  Had Sandoval started out in the majors in 2008 as Belt did, he would not have been given the starting job in 2009 nor given all year in 2010 to figure things out.  And as I showed with my analysis previously, he was still good in spurts during the 2010 season.

Second, I've seen some article questioning whether Sandoval is back because he was good in April 2009 as well and then sunk down in performance.  Again, it appears clear to me that Sandoval was affected by personal issues last season, and his ups and downs in the second half, against publicly known personal issues (flying down to sign divorce papers, his mother's close brush with death) shows that he is unable to put such issues aside.  Still, that's my analysis against others.

However, one good indicator that this is the old Pandoval and not the Sadoval of 2010 is his homers.  In 2009, he had 25 homers, and according to HitTrackerOnline.com, 10 of those homers were No Doubts homers.  And remember, he didn't start really hitting them in bunches until June 2009, so the total number is suppressed by him only really hitting homers in 4 of the 6 months, and he averaged roughly 2-3 No Doubts per month.  He still was tied for 7th in No Doubts homers in the NL in 2009; prorating would have put him either in the lead or tied for 2nd.

In 2010, he only had 3 No Doubts homers, out of 13 total homers.  He was way down the list for both, as a result.  And he didn't even average one No Doubts per month, he had one in April, one in June, and one in August, about two months apart.

In 2011 so far, only 21 games, he already has 3 No Doubts homer, which matches what he had last season after only 21 games, and he reached that #3 on April 19th.   That is exactly like what he was accomplishing in 2009, and nothing like his 2010.  And I don't recall my stats exactly, but I'm sure that the odds are very low that someone whose true talent is 0.5 No Doubt homers per month, as he was in 2010, could randomly produce 3.0 No Doubt homers as he did this April.  Sandoval is back, no question.

Third, there is the rumor about Nate Schierholtz being on the trading block and thus may be DFAed when Torres returns.  This is why you don't want to listen to rumors from non-Giants analysts or Giants fans who are not analysts.  Schierholtz has been on the block since spring training, that rumor has been out there for a long time.  Somebody is just refreshing that rumor.

To anyone who has paid attention to the Giants 25 man roster situation and analyzed the consequences of Brandon Belt being promoted, it has been clear since off-season that there is a 25-man crunch this season.  We saw that first with Ishikawa, there was no space for him to start the season had Ross been healthy, and the Giants instead used Ross's injury as an opportunity to kick the tires on Belt and see if he was ready or not (turned out not).

And when Belt is ready again for his promotion, four of the spots will be taken by Whiteside, DeRosa, Fontenot, and Rowand, and the fifth will be taken by who ever sits when Belt comes up, either Huff (1B), Burrell (LF), or Ross (RF).  The Giants could put him in a platoon because Ross was clearly a platoon player by his 2010 performance, and Burrell doesn't play a full season in LF anyway.  And that would push Schierholtz off the 25-man roster at that point.

That is why the Giants have been looking to trade Schierholtz since spring training, something any Giants close observer would have noticed, but the non-Giants baseball writers wouldn't.  Schierholtz could start for other teams and the Giants will want to harvest that value rather than put him on waivers and lose him for essentially nothing.

As I've made clear in recent posts, I would rather keep Schierholtz around for 2012, because we have question marks regarding the outfield - Burrell age, Torres age/legs, Ross age - and might need him as a starter.  Thomas Neal probably will be ready by next season, but I think Schierholtz could be good for us as a starter, providing superlative defense in RF while also providing power and speed.  And I think he'll eventually be a good enough hitter as well.  However, unless the Giants either trade or release Rowand, Fontenot, Burrell, Ross, or DeRosa, Schierholtz is the one who will go.

But the good thing is that Belt most probably won't be coming up until June-July, and by that time, things will be much clearer about who is performing and who is not, plus there could be an injury to keep a spot open.  In addition, with Aaron Rowand hitting so well, I can see him continuing to get regular starts, particularly against LHP with Torres sitting, and by then the Chicago White Sox might be ready to trade for Rowand, who they still like, in a deal similar to the deal that brought them Juan Pierre, with the Giants taking on most of Rowand's salary in 2011 and another, say, $4M so that they only pay $8M in 2012 and getting an OK prospect back in return.  Pierre has not been hitting, so they might want the upgrade offensively in LF.  Long shot, I know, but I think is still a possibility since the ChiSox has clearly not been adverse to odd deals, like them picking up Alexis Rios when he looked liked a dead contract too.

About the rotation, between putting Vogelsong in the Pirates series or skipping and inserting into 5th spot later, I think either rotation works.  The main difference is that inserting Vogelsong now results in Cain getting two starts against Colorado in our next three series (to June 5th) while Lincecum gets two starts if they skip.

Regarding this series, the Giants look like they can handle their pitchers.  But can our pitchers handle their hitters?  Much will depend on how Bumgarner and Vogelsong pitches, obviously, and we are not sure what we will get out of them.  Could be two good games, could be two bad, could be mix, can't really say.   Plus, this being a lefty park, look for Sandoval and Huff, and maybe Posey (since he hits opposite field bombs) to lead the way offensively if we are to win the series.

But clearly the Giants need to get back on their winning ways, though I must say that this season is turning out a bit like last season's, where things went up and down, two steps forward, one step back, and so forth.

And it is tough without one of the big reasons for last season's results, Andres Torres up top of the lineup, out on the DL.

Plus Aubrey Huff has scuffled - again - in the early season.  This was around when he started heating up seriously last season, though he is a little late heating up, but with the cold weather lingering, maybe that is why his poor hitting lingers?  His homers looked like him re-heating, then he went Oh for 12 in a three game stretch.  He has only hit .286/.395/.371/.767 in Pittsburgh, though, in 11 games, 9 starts there.  However, with forecasts for rain in Pittsburgh, it should not be any warmer there.

Then again, the offense has actually been producing, it has been the pitching and fielding that has been letting the team down, as you can see in the team's W/L performance in the box off to the right.  The team will probably not take off until the pitching starts coming through, they have not been delivering the 3 runs or less defense that we had last season, while the offense has been producing more often than not, despite missing Torres.

Last Series Preview For At Least a While

Lastly, I will note for those who like my series summaries that I will stop doing them for at least a while.  Just haven't been up for them this season.  Part of it is that I'm still seeing the brainiacs who think they are smarter than the Giants management continue their attacks on him, and that saddens me like I can't explain.  And if they were making sense, I could accept it, but sadly, I'm not seeing it, it is the same old crap as before.

Also, I think the Giants World Championship has taken away a bit of the urgency I felt before.  Not that it's a sure thing, but knowing that the team is in pretty good shape overall makes each series matchups not as important at the moment.  Particularly knowing that the team is battling short right now, as Torres and Zito are out and Bumgarner is struggling.  I will probably start it up again as we get closer to the playoffs and there is more urgency to each series, but I'm just not feeling it (though perhaps it is also because I've been battling bugs for a while now and am just run down).

The only urgency I can sense right now is that Miguel Tejada is struggling defensively and thus many have already given up on him.  I am OK with him in there, as long as we are not that far behind, maybe if we get to 10 games back it would seem like more of a problem.  But as we saw last season and prior seasons, a team could start their run in the June-July timeframe and still end the season well and get into the playoffs.

I think the Giants are willing to let him play for May and if he's still going poorly defensively, then I think the Giants would look to make a move for a trade for a better fielding SS and DFA him in the mid-season timeframe.  The Giants are only 1.5 games behind the wildcard leader, the Cards, so there is plenty of time before they have to make a move.  For example, had Bumgarner been pitching the way we expected, we would be in fine shape in the win column at the moment.

ADDENDUM:  I will continue to post whenever I feel the need to.  Heck, I might end up posting more posts, as I've been waiting for the previews to voice some opinions.

Trade Rumors: Giants Looking at Indians and White Sox

According to a recent rumor, the Giants were at an Indians/White Sox game scouting Jermaine Dye and Victor Martinez. I answered the V-Mart trade possibilities on Lefty, and here is basically what I wrote there:

I think V-Mart would require Posey or Bumgarner in the deal, ultimately. The Indians are not in a position of dumping guys just to get salary off their roster, they will only make a deal that gets them ready to battle in 2010, after all, they got Grady Sizemore still on the team. I don't think a package led by Alderson would do it for the Indians.

Look at last year's trade. About half a year of Sabathia (V-Mart has additional year), and the Brewers sent their #1 prospect, Matt LaPorta, plus #11 Bryson and #24 Brantley and Zach Jackson, who was #16 the year before. For comparison, the Giants equivalent would be #1 Bumgarner, #11 Waldis Joaquin (or they might want #13 Henry Sosa), #24 Matt Downs (or they might want #23 Thomas Neal), and last years #16 Nick Pereira (or this year's #15 Kevin Pucetas or #17 Travis Ishikawa).

Given their #1 prospect is a C, and looking over this list, plus fact that V-Mart is signed for another year, I think Bumgarner, Ishikawa (to replace V-Mart at 1B, platoon with Garko, perfect), Pucetas, and probably someone like Scott Barnes, would be what they are looking for in a package from us for V-Mart, based on what they got for Sabathia.

I know V-Mart is no Sabathia, but it's 1.5 years of low cost V-Mart vs. 0.5 years of CC, he plays both C and 1B, switch-hitter, might be able to sign him long term (Nero is agent, not Boras, not sure what that means), excellent hitter, hit same at home as on the road, power, he's in his prime, 30 this year.

Dye is a good hitter, but one must remember that he hits much better at home than on the road. In addition, he has played RF predominantly during his career, and his defense in RF is atrotious, costing 1.5 games per 150 games, a particularly bad trait to have with the Giants funky RF shape. Plus, then he would take away Schierholtz's only position, and put Winn in LF.

Giants Thoughts

Since Sabean and the Giants rarely give any information out, I think that the observers who saw the Giants at this game assumed that the Giants are looking only for a power hitter and then threw out the obvious names, like V-Mart and Dye. Neither fits because the Giants are not willing to trade what it would take to get V-Mart, and Dye don't fit our roster, though Sabean has always said that he would make the trade first, then figure out the ramifications later. And they could always play Dye in LF, but defense would be a problem there as well.

I think the Giants are looking instead for MI players, like Jhonny Peralta and Josh Barfield, who can play 2B. Barfield is extraneous to them now, a big bust of a trade, and they moved Peralta to 3B to play someone else at SS, plus Peralta will be a free agent, I think, at the end of next year. Barfield should not cost as much to get, but Peralta would be more likely to be good for us in 2009-2011 (contract has option to 2011, total of $14M over next 2.5 years) and hits for some power. He would probably cost us an Alderson, but not much more I think in top prospects, but probably would have to throw in another starter, Pucetas, Tanner. If Sadowski can keep on pitching well, they might take him.

In the ChiSox case, I would be interested in Wilson Betemit. Could play 2B, SS, 3B, totally wasted by Yankees and now ChiSox, had a lot of power playing in Atlanta and LA. Should not take much to take him off their hands and he's still young. They already have a nice SS in Ramirez plus Gordon Beckham could play the same positions as well and would take a starting position. Probably would take a mid-tier pitching prospect, I would think, Pucetas, Tanner, Martinez, Sadowski.

Perfect Storm: Trade Lowry to Twins

I saw a headline of a rumor that caught my eye: Twins Might Get Fogg? And if you know the players in the league, Josh Fogg isn't even an average pitcher, he is very much a back of the rotation pitcher, at best a #4 starter, but I'm thinking more like a #5. His career ERA is 4.90 where the league ERA was 4.48 and his ERA+ was 91 where 100 is average. And he has never had one season where he was above 97. This is the guy they want to replace Johan Santana in their rotation?

Lowry is the Answer

That got me thinking, what about Lowry? Lowry would be a huge improvement over Fogg as a replacement for Santana in the rotation. His lowest ERA+ was 95; his career ERA is 4.03 where the league average was 4.38, and his career ERA+ is 109. And he is still young - just 27 for 2008 - and under relatively cheap control with a contract that lasts to 2009 and has an option for 2010. And while Lowry's late season injury problems of the past two seasons might scare off other teams, they took on Francisco Liriano's problems and have now took on Deolis Guerra's injury problems, so they must think that they are experts in handling pitchers who are injury prone.

Now who could we get from them. Well, in the Delmon Young trade, they got Brendan Harris, who is normally a SS but is right now slotted for 2B for them. However, they have Alexi Casilla who is their Eugenio Velez-esque speedburner who was originally slated to be their new 2B. We could get Harris in the trade, which would allow the Twins to start Casilla as they had originally intended.

He had a very nice season offensively at SS in 2007 (have no idea how good his fielding is) and has hit well in the minors coming up the ladder - and he could be either our starting 3B or be a Chone Figgins-type utility guy and get starts at 2B, 3B, and SS. And he could probably be our future SS, particularly if Vizquel sucks offensively, which I kind of expect (he couldn't even muster up one month with an OPS above 700, 688 was the highest, 670 next; he had four months at 745 and above, much above, just the year before). He could be starting by mid-season.

Now he alone is not enough for Lowry, in my opinion, Lowry is a more proven major leaguer, more successful major leaguer. He also is under contract and while we can trade him, we don't need to trade him, whereas the Twins just spent big bucks to lock up Morneau and Cuddyer, so they cannot afford to dick around on price and negotiate much, they need pitching, good pitching, and while they have some nice pitching with potential, the rotation is full of question marks up and down, with Scott Baker having the least question marks. Lowry might be a question mark by the end of the season, but at least he is unquestionably good before Sept: career ERA of 3.83 from start of season to end of August.

For the other player, there are a number of options. One is to get back 3B Brian Buscher. We lost him in the Rule 5 draft to the Twins last season and he had a great year in AA/AAA for them. Of course, that's probably because he got away from the hell-holes that is the stadium homes for the San Jose Giants and Connecticut Defenders. He's a 3B and, what do you know, we have an open spot at 3B in 2008. Buscher bats left, so he and Frandsen could split 3B between them, plus Frandsen could steal a start every week from Durham at 2B.

Another option could be C Wilson Ramos. He played on their A-ball team in 2007 and hit 783 OPS at age 19 (average age of pitchers in that league was 21.7 or 2 years older). He ranked 33rd in the league in OPS and he was not far behind highly hyped C Hank Conger, who was also 19 and hit a little higher with an 808 OPS. Baseball America has him as their #3 prospect. They have Joe Mauer already at C and he looks to be there a long time, so they won't need Ramos.

Lastly, there's SS Trevor Plouffe. Only 21, he was in AA last season and hit .736 OPS with 12 SB. Baseball America ranks him as the Twins #10 prospect, though all that will change with the addition of all the prospects from the Santana trade. Not as interesting as Ramos, but still he could be a good pickup for SS while Harris moves to 3B.

Giants Thoughts

After looking through the prospects lists, there are a lot of interesting prospects that the Giants might get from the Twins. To pair off with Harris, I think Ramos is probably the best deal and best for the Giants going forward, as catcher is always a hard spot to fill and, frankly, we only have Pablo Sandoval as our best looking catching prospect and yet only a season ago, he was a bust prospect. As nice as it would be to get Buscher back to fill our 3B need, I think Ramos would be a better value as well as fill a future position of need.

However, maybe, since the Twins appear to have picked up Mike Lamb for the purpose of being their starting 3B, they might be willing to throw in Buscher into the deal if we give them a pitching prospect in addition. If they can accept a pitcher that the Giants are willing to part with, then we got a deal. If we can do that, we got good prospects for C, 3B, and SS then and the Twins would have a rotation that goes from nice but very suspect, to respectable, as Lowry would fit nicely with Liriano, Baker, Slowey, and Perkins in the rotation (Boof is OK as a #5 starter but he might not even make the rotation in 2008). Lowry would take the #3 spot behind Liriano and Baker, a spot he should do very well in for them.

Should We Lose or Should We Win Now?

With apologies to the Clash:

"Should we lose or should we win now?
If we lose it could be trouble; if we win it could be double.
Come on and let me know, should we lose or should we win?"

That's the dilemma facing Giants fans today. The Giants are flirting with a top 5 draft pick in next year's amateur draft, a region that historically is much better than from 6-10 overall, and is "only" 4 games away from the first pick overall. With their current start of a stretch of 38 games in 38 days, that's going to be quite a gaunlet of games played, tiring out all our regulars, perhaps tiring out our starting pitchers then our bullpen.

I think that is part of what is motivating the Giants to get Ortiz and Misch ready to start. They will need a spot starter for the double-header against Pittsburgh, plus they conceivably could go to a 6-man rotation for a while to keep the starters fresher, during this period, by keeping the starters in their regular starting spot, every 6 days when there is an open spot in the schedule that week.

Should We Win?

In any case, August is about the time when Cain suddenly was untouchable last year and when Lowry is nearly untouchable the past three seasons. Add to that Lincecum seemingly over the hump in terms of adjusting, and the pitching rotation looks pretty good right now, with Zito and Morris our #4/#5 starters essentially (and unfortunately pitching like them too).

Plus position players are starting to heat up. Roberts now on fire after fixing his elbow and getting back into hitting shape, Winn catching on fire too again, Feliz on fire in July (is he finally learning to hit better, as he said he was working on during the off-season? He has 7 walks and only 3 strikeouts in July - when I checked last, he got a walk today against Atlanta. The closest he was to equaling them before this season was August 2005, when he had 10 walks and 14 strikeouts until 7 walks and 9 K's in May this year. And since becoming a regular in 2004, he has never had a month with under 10 strikeouts until May of this year and he is on pace to end up with around 5 strikeouts this month plus perhaps pass 10 walks in a month for the first time), and Bonds being Bonds. As the offense has shown in the past weekedn, they can score a bunch of runs even without Bonds contributing (Of course, part of that was due to the Brewers lousy pitching staff, other than Gallardo, who we luckily missed).

So we should not be El Stinko possibly in August and that would move our records upward, beyond the Top 5 picks, back towards the #10 pick we have gotten the past two years. And if Zito can finally pitch like he can, we might even get back within shooting distance of the division leaders. And if Morris is fine, just going through his first bad stretch of the season, then we could conceivably catch up with the leaders, much like the Chicago Cubs have over the past three weeks or so.

Should We Lose?

But now that we are in range for a top 5 draft pick in next year's amateur draft, I would like to get one, as next year is suppose to be full of college hitters, from what I recall someone noting. And the closer we are to #1, presumably the better the hitter we get. Who knows, maybe he'll be good enough to make the majors by 2010.

With the Giants looking to compete next season but with the intention to develop younger players who could contribute to the future, I'm hoping to trade a few of the veteran players we have to get some prospects, some who are close to the majors, within a year or two, some who are just low level but promising prospects. That should help counteract the positives I noted above and keep the Giants uncompetitive and still losing. I don't want them to lose, but now that we are here, getting the fourth pick, we may as well work towards keeping it.

Who Goes and What Happens

Morris is probably the main one I'm looking to move, both for salary and because he would probably bring the most in prospect talent. A good starter like him is hard to find in this market, he's not a difference maker but he is a good veteran pitcher and a lot of teams could use another starter. He's had a bad stretch but he is still better than most team's #4 (or worse) starter and could be a good #3 for a number of teams as well. Russ Ortiz would take his place in the rotation and Misch would be the spot starter/DH starter.

Durham is another one because that would save salary for next season too, like Morris, plus it would open up 2B for Frandsen, which is probably where he will need to play in the majors, if he should ever start. Give it to him now, he can start next year, and if he isn't the long-term answer, we have a number of players who can play 2B coming up the system and should be ready for a look-see by 2009 or 2010. I had toyed with the idea of him playing 3B, but I think we should just play Aurilia there, mainly because he is probably not tradeable.

As much as I like Klesko, I think he should be traded as there are teams that can use a 800+ OPS hitter at 1B like him and would be willing to give up something for him. Heck, if we can get a Kelvin Pichardo for Michael Tucker, as bad as he was hitting that year, Klesko should fetch an even better prospect. Not too bad for a cheap free agent pickup.

To replace him, we could promote Scott McClain, who is hitting a ton in AAA right now. He is 35 years old, so that would explain his dominance, but Niekro hasn't been doing anything since he was injured (again, sigh...). I would just promote Ishikawa, he has been raking in Advanced A San Jose since being sent there, showing the skills that he showed there two seasons ago and on the road in AA, plus he did well in his short stint in the majors last season and purportedly already is a good major league defensive 1B. Just let him hack up here but with our batting coach working closely with him.

If we can get anything for Vizquel, I will be torn, mainly depending on how many picks we would get for him if we let him go free agent and sign elsewhere. If we get two picks, a first rounder and a supplemental first, then I think I would let him go. If it is lower, then I would look to trade him for what we can get, and then promote Ivan Ochoa to play SS. He was playing nicely for us in AAA until his injury but unfortunately he isn't back yet so perhaps trading Vizquel will have to wait.

I think there should be teams looking for someone like Mark Sweeney, he is a professional hitter and we should be able to get a prospect for him. Again, if Tucker could fetch a good low level prospect, we should be able to get something good for Sweeney too. That would open up a spot on the roster for Ortmeier to be our 4th OF, which is the role I see for him going forward.

Steve Kline is a sweet reliever and I read one of the rumor headlines that relievers are hard to find: BINGO! He's doing well, he's signed for 2008, he should be able to fetch a good enough prospect. We have a lot of relievers in the minors who we could bring up, though none of them are doing particularly great, except for Misch, who is now a starter.

I think I would have rather they started Begg instead and put Misch into our bullpen. With his high K-rate in AAA, it would have been interesting to see what he could do with extended time in the bullpen with us. Then again, with his high K-rate, perhaps the Giants see him taking the 5th starter spot next year - assuming Morris will be traded away sometime between now and opening day 2008 - over Sanchez.

Now, if any of the free agent players can fetch us good draft picks in next year's draft, I think I would rather keep them and get the picks, but since I don't know where they rank or anything, I cannot say who would or wouldn't, so hence my thoughts above. Just nevermind them if we can get a first round pick for anyone.

Lastly, I doubt that we can trade Feliz for much, he has been so bad for so long. But he is having an amazing July, walks galore, he cut down on his K's drastically, he's hitting still hitting for power, he's hitting like we've been asking him to for over 5 years now. If he can continue to hit like this for the rest of the year, plus continue to play his great defense, I would actually be OK with re-signing him, that is, if there isn't a better 3B on the market.

A-Rod now seems likely to re-sign with the Yanks - reports have him buying a $25M mansion in Connecticut or somewhere near NY - so that dream is dead and I'm not sure I would want to sign Mike Lowell to a big long contract either. Another one year with Feliz so that we have a 3B would not be so bad, though many Giants fans would have a fit. But look at it this way: we have no 3B in the minors ready to play 3B, Leone has been pretty bad most months, he just had a great May (I think, or was it June). He would probably be just as bad offensively as Feliz and without the defense, but he would be cheap.

And if we are going to stink in 2008, the least the Giants need to do is field a good defensive team, particularly in the infield, so that the pitchers don't get too frustrated. Molina catching, Ishikawa and/or Niekro can provide that at 1B, Frandsen at 2B, Feliz at 3B, Vizquel perhaps at SS (re-sign if unable to trade), Roberts in CF and Winn in RF, plus mixing in Lewis and Schierholtz in there too as starters, not great defense from those two but you can't have them all good. And as I will write on in a future post, defense is a key element of successful teams in the playoffs (along with good, dominant pitching).

ChiSox and Dye Rumor

A recent Chron article noted that "If the White Sox decide to sell, the Giants might be interested. Two of general manager Brian Sabean's top talent evaluators, Paul Turco and Ted Uhlaender, scouted the Sox in Chicago and Toronto last week. Outfielder Jermaine Dye is a free agent after the season and could be on the block. "

This was brought up at MLB Trade Rumors, and I am posting the comment I put there here:

I didn't understand why Dye was mentioned in the Chron article on the Giants. Bonds isn't going anywhere, Roberts just signed as a free agent, and Winn has a no-trade contract, so he won't play in the OF for the Giants.

The only place he could conceivably play is 1B, where he has played only once in his career. And as nice as Dye is as a hitter, Klesko has a much better OPS than Dye right now, despite Dye hitting 10 homers already. Plus Klesko has been on a tear since the start of May, his OPS since then is around 950, about 200 points better than Dye. Plus Dye's stats are inflated by playing at his hitter friendly home.

Seems like Dye was only mentioned because he's a free agent. This is like the joke of looking for the quarter under the street light when you lost it over there in the dark.

Now, I can see the Giants talking to the ChiSox about SS. Williams wanted to sign Vizquel but the Giants beat him to him. The Giants appear to not be ready to re-sign Omar, who will be a free agent after the season.

The Giants could swap Vizquel for Uribe and get younger in the process. Both have been struggling, so it could be an even swap or maybe the ChiSox could throw in a reliever, they just sent down Aardsma, a former Giants prospect, since Vizquel is probably still a superior defensive SS over Uribe and thus a bit more valuable. Plus is still a better hitter even though he's over 40 now and Uribe is under 30.

The Giants could also use relievers or an upgrade at 3B, perhaps pick up Crede and Josh Fields is promoted by ChiSox to be starting 3B. Not sure who the Giants would give up in that scenario, the ChiSox wouldn't want Feliz in return, so it could mean trading away Sanchez or other prospects. However, I would rather trade Sanchez for Fields instead.

Best trading chips, since Sabean said the starting rotation is not available (i.e. Lowry and Morris is not going anywhere), is Sanchez plus maybe Lewis since he is doing so well in majors thus far. I saw Nick Pereirra's name mentioned as a top prospect by one analyst, so he could be in the mix as well.

And I'm not saying the Giants are looking to trade them or that I would want to trade them, these are all just possibilities, assuming you make the leap that the Giants are interested in getting someone on the ChiSox.

Should also have noted that Dye was born in Vacaville, CA so he does have local roots, and so might be interested in staying long-term, if that is the Giants idea. Our new OF in 2008: Roberts, Winn, Dye? Plus he brings a balanced bat to the lineup, as well as his power, and he brings right-handed pop that we don't really have, Feliz and Durham is the best we got. And he has hit well in AT&T Mays Field, except for no homers in just 25 ABs here, though .983 OPS.

The main problem is just: where does he play? I suppose he could play 1B, but then Klesko and Aurilia are displaced. Aurilia could become the MI reserve, which would shove Frandsen to AAA. Or he could take 3B, which would displace Feliz into his uber-utility role again; I suppose he could start playing RF again with Winn playing CF when Roberts sits against LHP. Although if Vizquel is part of the trade, then that frees SS for Aurilia unless we get Uribe in return as I suggested above (but I like this better, getting Dye to play 1B and trading Vizquel to start Aurilia at SS). Klesko, in any case, would then become Bonds LF replacement plus tough righthanders for Dye at 1B, and get a lot less ABs than he was hoping and thinking, given that he's healthy now.

More of concern, though, is Dye has not been a healthy player since he turned 28, he has missed at least 16 games per season over the past 5 seasons, nearly 100 in 2003. And he is 33 now and health can only get worse. But he has had great pop in Chicago the past 2 and a part seasons so he would be a great upgrade offensively, the only question is where to put him, there is no spot in the outfield, so 1B is the best place, and he has never played there regularly.

I have to believe the Giants are looking at other players other than Dye in their scouting.

Tell Me Something I Didn't Know: Ortiz to Return to Bullpen

The Giants have announced that Ortiz will be coming back to the major league roster in the bullpen. Which is not surprising given how well Lincecum has been doing in the majors and, before that, the minors. As I've been beating the drums on, this helps the Giants bullpen greatly by adding another experienced arm in there, particularly one with closer experience, so perhaps he can beef up the setup situation - not that Hennessey hasn't been very good in that role, but rather that now we should have two very good options to go to in those situations.

However, his role is up in the air right now, could be long relief, could be other situations, according to the article. I think it's going to be like April when Bochy was trying to figure how where everyone's strengths and weaknesses are, and how they respond to certain roles. Ortiz will find himself doing everything, long, short, middle, setup, perhaps even close if Benitez has been used often. As I noted, I hope for him to assert a strong role in the bullpen, perhaps even usurping Hennessey's role.

If he can do that, then he might become the closer we were looking for in spring to take it away from Benitez. I'm hoping the skills he showed before as closer will come to the fore now and he can "close" in setup situations and occassionally in actual closing situations. This would give the Giants an option in case they decide that they want to trade away Benitez - to get something for all the trouble he has caused to the franchise - when there are some desperate teams looking for bullpen help (and you know there will be a number of them) - and maybe pick up a good bat somewhere.

It would also give us an option to go to looking forward should Wilson continue to struggle with his control in AAA Fresno, because there's no way in hell Benitez should be re-signed. But then what do we do for closer if Wilson is not ready? Hennessey has been nice, but I don't look at him right now and think "closer!" And I know Giants fans probably think the same about Ortiz and his penchant to walk guys, but at least he's been in the closer's role before, been very successful doing that, is known to the organization, and should be cheap again next season because the D-backs are still on the hook for $6-7M for the 2008 season, if I remember right.

Who Can It Be Now?

The Giants is being coy about what would happen once Ortiz returns because that will result in someone being sent down. The most obvious choice to me is to send Sanchez back down and become the starter that he should be, so that he can be ready to compete for a starting role next season - or perhaps prove that he belongs in the bullpen. Either way, he hasn't been doing that well in the bullpen up here anyhow.

If the Giants were to go in another direction, there are really only two choices that I can see among the position players: Ortmeier and Frandsen. Given all the blab about how Frandsen was going to come back up quickly and get a lot more play, plus Durham's and Aurilia's recent minor ache and pain that kept them out of the lineup, it would seem that it would not make sense to send back Frandsen.

Meanwhile, Ortmeier is replaceable on the roster. Sweeney and Klesko can play LF, Winn and Lewis can play CF and RF, plus we have already seen Sweeney take RF this season, have seen Feliz in RF a couple of years ago, plus have seen Frandsen take a game or two in the OF as well. Plus Durham could probably do a game in CF without problems as well, people have been talking about how he should be a CF since before he joined the Giants.

Also, look at how little he has been used since both he and Lewis joined the team. Of course, Lewis's hot streak probably has a lot to do with that, but Ortmeier also came up and hit the ground hitting as well. But he still sat, even though there has been a number of LHP starters that Lewis could have been sat down for and allow Ortmeier a turn in RF. So Ortmeier looks like the most logical choice among the position players to send down.

Given the innings the bullpen has been throwing recently, it would seem to make sense to send down Ortmeier, particularly with all the other possible OFs who could play in a pinch and the lack of usage he has been experiencing when Lewis could have sat a game or two to allow Ortmeier an opportunity. But Lewis has grasped the golden opportunity and rung the bell.

I still would prefer to send Sanchez down now. There's still around 3 months left in the minor league season, so he can ramp up his innings pitched and get his arm into starter mode. Also, this stops the ticking on his major league service, so that we don't waste it on bad relief outings and instead on good starts 2008 and beyond. This gives Ortiz more opportunity to throw in the bullpen, as there would be one less option.

Why I Like Ortmeier

Also, I like Ortmeier. As recently as one year ago, he was still considered a prospect who could be a starting corner OF. I believe that playing in Dodd Stadium for the Connecticut Defenders has screwed around with his confidence and that, given time, could return to that state in which he was a good prospect. I think if he can get some extended play in the majors, much like the Giants were going to do for Linden this year, he can become that player again. After all, there must have been something there that Bonds liked a lot for him to help him out in spring training (beyond a photo-op; I don't see Bonds doing something like that to court favor, otherwise he would have kissed up to reporters long ago) when he could have helped out other prospects but didn't.

And what's there not to like? He has double-digit power and, more importantly, he has basepath smarts, which he has converted into a lot of steals, unusual for a big man like him, he could get double-digits in steals as a starter. Thus he would give the Giants a stolen base threat on the bench, which we currently don't have with Klesko, Sweeney, Frandsen, and Alfonzo on the bench (and Linden previously). Thus he would be ideal as Bonds's designated pinch-runner/defensive replacement, then throw him a few bones by giving him starts when Bonds rests.

Like Linden, he was mainly a corner OF but once the Giants started thinking of him as a utility guy, he started getting starts in CF in AAA, and thus could play all OF positions. And he's a switch-hitter too, so he would be useful in pinch-hitting assignments. Besides, once Roberts returns from the DL, he's a platoon guy but Fred Lewis bats left so he would not make sense as a guy to get starts when there is a LHP; however, Ortmeier would. So why not keep him up and get him acclimated to the 5th OF role that Linden was suppose to occupy?

Now Playing 3B for the Giants: Miguel Cabrera?

I know it's a pipe dream but what's not a pipe dream is that Cabrera and the Marlins are having a very public hissy-fit over their arbitration hearing - the news is on Ben Maller's rumor website.

According to his sources - and the info was reported in a newspaper - Cabrera is unhappy that the Marlins are taking him to arbitration over $700,000. Doesn't mention if he wants the whole $700,000 or just want the Marlins to meet him half way, but it reminds me of that quote from a senator, which I'll paraphrase here: "$100,00 here, $100,000, there: pretty soon you're talking about a lot of money." (I think the senator used the term $1 trillion). So purportedly he didn't show up for a team function - one that he skipped two years ago but didn't get chastised for it so very publicly except he wasn't the big star then - because of this.

Samson One Haircut Short of a Full Load

David Samson, President of the Marlins (and more importantly, the owner's step-son), has been criticized for not being the sharpest pencil in previous accounts that I have read about him, but I always try to keep an open mind about how people are portrayed in print. However, this newspaper article pretty much sealed the deal with me that he's not that smart and, in fact, is pretty dumb.

Here Miguel Cabrera is one of the premier players in the league (though I've read recent complaints about his conditioning coming into camp) and he's not happy (rightly or wrongly) about the Marlins taking him to arbitration over the $700,000 difference (his $7.4M vs. their $6.7M). So Samson publicly criticizes Cabrera for not showing up and publicly states that he will mention their displeasure in the arbitration hearing.

However, "Samson said he didn't think it will cause hard feelings that could linger into the season. 'We're all adults here and we all have responsibilities...' ". What an idiot! Of course this will cause hard feelings that could linger into the season! Even if he wasn't a great baseball player, and just an average joe like us, he would have hard feelings that could and will linger into the season.

But not the way Samson is thinking. Samson is probably thinking about performance on the field. There, sure, no hard feelings, but Cabrera should know that he has to perform to get his next new payday, he's not that dumb (not even Livan was that dumb). So he will play well most probably.

But if the Marlins are hoping to keep him long term, there will definitely be hard feelings as long as Samson is around, they can forget about getting an extension of any sort now plus they can forget about Cabrera showing up for any future "mandatory" pre-season promotional events. I know that money can talk sometimes, but for a superstar ego to take that type of criticism publicly from the team's ownership/management, he's probably thinking that he can make great money anywhere anyhow, so why bother negotiating with the Marlins? Samson just blew it big time if he wanted to keep Cabrera.

Giants and Cabrera?

Here's where hopefully the Giants come into the picture. They have obviously been talking with the Marlins about trading Benitez for a prospect. So why not expand the trade to include other players in order to try to get Cabrera? I'm not sure what it would take, but it would probably start with either Noah Lowry or Jonathan Sanchez, then I'm not sure where it would go.

I'm sure they wouldn't want Pedro Feliz though, but I also know that the Giants wouldn't trade Angel Villalona either. It would just kill their image with Latin American prospects for them to jettison him like that before he plays one game for them - I'll also add that I don't know the rules, perhaps they can't trade him for a year, much like the Giants cannot trade Lincecum, from what I read, for a year, but even if they could, it would be a serious blow to their reputation in the region. We don't have many other good 3B prospects, Pablo Sandoval was a hot prospect before the 2006 season but his poor season dropped his stock tremedously.

Another possibility would Eddy Martinez-Esteve, who was a big college star in Florida before the Giants drafted him. But he's probably either a LF, more probably a 1B, and best suited for DH, but the Marlins are in the NL, so no DH there. I think Marcus Sanders played for a Floridian community college, who that the Giants could do a draft-and-follow, so he could also be a local attraction as well. And Merkin Valdez is from the Dominican. Those are all players who might be interesting to the Marlins for both potential and local attraction.

In any case, I hope the Giants at least kicks the tires and see if the Marlins might be willing to part with their star player after their public bickering. Lets see: Lowry, EME, Valdez, and another good prospect (or maybe even Hennessey?) plus Benitez for Cabrera?