Your 2018 Giants: Latest Spring Cuts

Here are the latest Giants spring cuts, per MLB.com:

• Optioned out:  right-handers Tyler Beede, Roberto Gomez, and Derek Law; outfielders Austin Slater and Mac Williamson
• Reassigned to the minors: left-hander Andrew Suarez, right-handers Joan Gregorio and Jose Valdez, catchers Justin O'Conner, Trevor Brown and Hector Sanchez, infielders Orlando Calixte, Chase d'Arnaud and Kyle Jensen and outfielder Chris Shaw

Your 2018 Giants: Roster Battles After Player Cuts

The Giants recently re-assigned a number of players from their major league spring training camp.  With Opening Day happening in two weeks, I'll take a look at the roster battles and how the 25-man roster is shaping up.

NBC reported the following cuts:

Eight players were optioned to minor league camp, including a couple of guys who have big league experience. The optioned players are: Tyler Herb, Pierce Johnson, Chase Johnson, Reyes Moronta, Steven Okert, D.J. Snelten, Aramis Garcia and Miguel Gomez.  

The Giants also reassigned five players to minor league camp: Tyler Cyr, Jose Flores, Dereck Rodriguez, Madison Younginer and Alen Hanson.  

With the cuts, the Giants are down to 47 players in camp.

Your 2017 Giants: Opening Day Roster

The Giants Opening Day roster has been settled.  Haft reported it in an article:

• Catcher:  Posey; Hundley (FYI, I was mistaken before, he's not Hot Rod's son, sorry)
• Infield:  Belt, Panik, Nunez, Crawford; Gillaspie, Hill
• Outfield:  Parker, Span, Pence; Hernandez and Marrero
• Starting Pitchers:  Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, Samardzija, Cain
• Relievers:  Melanco, Strickland, Law, Kontos, Gearrin, Ramirez, with Blach as the long reliever, but also sometimes short stints too, per Bochy  

ogc thoughts

As most probably saw before camp, most of the spots were filled the way as expected.  I'll run though my thoughts on the ones that didn't or wasn't clear what was happening.

One of the bigger surprises, to me, was that Rollins did not win a spot.  His poor performance before should have clued me in, but his poor performance this spring, plus Hill hitting well enough (Tomlinson too), pushed him out.

One of my hopes for the spring was that Morse would win the 5th OF spot, and he accomplished that, but unfortunately, as it often has for him in his career, he suffered another injury and will be rehabbing in the minors instead.  His loss is Marrero's gain, though Marrero's 8 homers was a very good reason why he's on the team too, the Giants want some power off the bench.  It also sounds like he and Parker will be platooning some, as well, plus he might see some time at 1B as well.

I was not surprised that Cain won the 5th starter spot, as his contract size and his return to goodness last season before the hamstring took him out made him likely to win just by showing progress during the spring.  Blach, unsurprisingly won the long relief spot, as his consolation prize for a good spring.

I was surprised to see Okert get sent down, but Ramirez had a spring to suggest that he's back to his prior goodness from early in his career, after years of injuries and recovery, and there was no one else more logical to send down via options.  This gives the Giants good depth in the bullpen should there be injuries (and there will be) down along the line.

Your 2015 Giants: Pagan Putting uP Pain Pagain

Once again, Pagan hits the 15-day DL, re-injuring his left hamstring again, which had costed him (and especially us) 11 games previously.

Your 2016 Giants: Big Six Top Giants Prospects

I sometimes post a Big Six Giants prospect list on my blog, but my answer to the Giants prospect chat will have to substitute for it this season.  I like to read through the books and discuss why I like the top guys, and build my arguments why I think they are the top 6, but that is going to take a lot of time, and I like to get it done before Opening Day, and I just don't have the time.  So this time, I'm just going to fan boy about the system.

Your 2013 Giants: Prospects Named to AFL Roster

As reported by MLB.com, the Giants are sending the following prospects to the AFL:

• Kyle Crick, RHP
• Andrew Susac, C
• Adalberto Mejia, LHP
• Jarrett Parker, OF
• Cody Hall, RHP
• Angel Villalona, 1B

Typically teams get 3 spots for both position and pitchers. Oddly, the Giants press release noted  the first five players (hence my order) but the roster (which I linked to above) has Villalona on the roster instead of the one additional pitcher that the Giants article noted.  The discrepancy is odd.

Your 2011 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

And, frankly, most people who do these sort of stuff focus a significant amount of their ranking on whether a player is able to make the majors that season or not.  So, to be a little different, I try to focus more on the future potential rather than closeness to the majors, partly because that is the fun of prospect watching, part because I don't observe any of the prospects on the field, as others do.

What I do provide is my thoughts and analysis after reading through various available sources of information regarding the Giants prospects, including all the lists out there (which was captured quite nicely by Crazy Crabbers here).  And, as noted, I lean more towards potential than closeness to the majors.

And to add to the Crabber's bounty, here is the Minor League Baseball Analyst's Top 15:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
3. Francisco Peguero, OF
4. Gary Brown, OF
5. Thomas Neal, OF
6. Charlie Culberson, 2B
7. Tommy Joseph, C
8. Jarrett Parker, OF
9. Brandon Crawford, SS
10. Jose Casilla, RHP
11. Chuckie Jones, OF
12. Ehire Adrianza, SS
13. Michael Main, RHP
14. Heath Hembree, RHP
15. Chris Dominguez, 3B

I love reading the Minor League Baseball Analyst, whole-heartedly recommend it.

2011 Giants Big 6 Prospects

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2011 is different again, just like 2009 and 2010, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.  And 2010 had a number of excellent picks in Brown, Parker, Rosin, Hembree, Kickham, Chuckie Jones,

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 2 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the four three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2011:

1. Brandon Belt:  He is the best by far, has a lot of potential plus he's basically in the majors sooner than later.  His story is well known:  Giants overdraft in Round 5 where many thought closer to Round 10, the former pitcher had his swing reworked suing new video tool leading to him leading the minors in a number of stats across the three levels he played in 2010, including AAA.  Showing surprising stolen-base prowess to go with power, he used the whole field while being disciplined enough to take walks at high rates.  Some have called him a left-handed Buster Posey and Will Clark said that Belt has a better swing than he did.  Should be in the heart of the Giants lineup for most of this decade, the Decade of the Giants, hitting for good (20-25 HR) power and average (plus high OBP), probably in the #5 spot (Sandoval, Posey, Belt).
2. Zack Wheeler:  He is the best pitcher by far, in a system left almost barren by quick promotions of pitchers in recent seasons.  He would be more highly ranked on most Top 100 overall prospect lists if he did not miss half the season due to a torn fingernail; yet, still, many ranked him roughly in the 50-75 range in their Top 100 list.  High strikeout rates due to mid-to-high 90's heater, he also got an extremely high percentage of ground balls.  He also has a good slider and power curveball.  Good mechanics seals the deal, he's a potential #1 starter.  Belt only beats him out because Belt is SOOO close to making the majors.  
3. Gary Brown:  With speed to challenge anyone - he reportedly can get to 1B (as RHB) as fast as the best LHB - he can get to many balls in CF that other cannot.  This also helps in elevating his BABIP plus is handy for stealing bases with abandon.  Most analysts said that he's plus plus in defense in CF but that his jittery batting stance scared off most teams despite him leading the Big West in OPS, not just last year, but over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria's breakout season (his ISO also beat out Longoria too).  The major negative that anyone can throw at him is his lack of walks in 2010 in college, but they are ignoring his high walk totals when he was not that good a hitter his first season on college and the walks he got, albeit small samples, but still a significant percentage, in pro ball in 2010:  he had 6 walks in only 54 PA, that's 11%, which is good.  He's my guy to watch for 2011, I think he will prove that he knows how to take walks plus do all the other stuff the experts say he can, and if so, he can rise fast, like Belt in 2010 and Sandoval in 2008, and be pushing for the majors by season's end.
4. Francisco Peguero:  I've never been impressed with him but the major prospect services have, so I have paid attention to him.  Baseball America says that he has the best blend of power and speed in the Giants system.  He has plus plus speed, which helps him provide plus plus defense.  With Brown around, he's probably headed for RF, which he has played in the minors.  Doesn't walk a lot, but like Sandoval coming up the minors, he has kept his strikeout rate down low against pitchers much older than he is, so that bodes well for him climbing up to the majors.  His coverage of the plate has been very good, as he exhibits good bat speed.  He'll be in AA in 2011, most likely, but could be pushing for the majors by season's end with another good season.
5. Heath Hembree:  Reported 100 MPH in college, the Giants fixed up something with the RHP's delivery and he went from walking 18 in 29 IP in college to outright dominating in the Arizona League, striking out 22 in only 11 IP, but more importantly, 0, zero, nil, nada, walks.  BA says that he profiles as a premium closer and that is what I'm thinking too.  Brian Wilson won't last forever nor stay here forever, so Hembree would be someone we could groom to take over in 2-3 seasons, should Wilson not be around at that point.  At worse, Hembree could be a shutdown set-up guy, which can be almost equally valuable sometimes.  
6. Rafael Rodriguez:  He is on this list because he's a true 5-tool talent.  As much as people want to complain about his 2010 season, that was his 17 YO season, and it would be too much to expect him to dominate out of the chute, especially since he's playing against much older guys, most 2-4 years older than he is (and more experienced).  Yet, his strikeout rate is not that high, around 19%, which means a contact rate of 81% when you ideally want to see the batter at 85% or above.  That should come with time and experience.  His power too.  Meanwhile, he's learning the nuances of fielding and with his strong arm and his speed, he probably could play any of the OF positions when he reaches the majors.  He's expected to make his full season debut in 2011 in low-A Augusta.

Now I can see people scratching their head about the last two.  Again, I lean towards potential and not closeness to the majors.  If the majors were valued more in this ranking a lot of other players would have been in the mix, for as noted, the Giants have been doing well in stocking the farm with players with potential in recent drafts and they are rising up close to the majors soon.  They will be my honorary mentions, basically in order.

Honorary Mentions

• Nick Noonan:  He didn't break out like I thought he would last season, but he was hampered by recurring hamstring problems.  Also, they redid his batting mechanics, using the same video system they used to redo Belt's and the results were very positive:  he started driving the ball and generating better bat speed.  The Giants are talking about moving him back to SS, and if he can field decently there, his offense would carry the day. I think he's someone to keep a close eye on, as well as Brown, they could be pushing on the majors by season end, even if he ends up back at 2B, I think he's on the verge of putting it together as a batter.  Probably repeats AA, but could join bottleneck in AAA by season's end, on merit.
• Ehire Adrianza:  In the past decade, he probably would have made the list, but the team's system is deepening, as I noted.  He reportedly could field SS in the majors now but his offense is what he needs to improve on.  Still, people need to remember, he was only 20 YO last season in a league of 22-24 YO pitchers, and yet he still held his own with the bat, 20% strikeouts/80% contact rate: remember, San Jose's background ups strikeout rate for hitters.  And he gets a good amount of walks too and flashes the speed to use them to steal bases.  He's probably going to repeat in SJ, particularly if Noonan is at SS in AA.
• Brandon Crawford:  Also with major league ready defense at SS, like Ehire, he just strikes out way too much.  Breaking his hand didn't help either.  Maybe he'll try out the new video system and take a leap, like Belt and Noonan.  Should be SS in AAA for 2011.  
• Tommy Joseph:  Probably best power-hitting prospect and he did not disappoint, 16 HR in 436 AB as 18 YO in low-A Augusta, but struck out a lot too with few walks.  C but a lot to learn and scouts felt 1B was his eventual position. 
• Thomas Neal:  The projection systems love him, think he can be solid regular starting OF this season in majors.  He took slight step back in 2010, but I blame EL for sapping his power, which was his plus tool, much like how Ishikawa suffered there (and Crawford, for that matter).  I think he'll be better in AAA playing LF, where he'll probably be in 2011.  
• Eric Surkamp:  He's healthy and looking to continue where he left off:  leading Giants minor leaguers in strikeouts again.  Got to love anyone with more than 1 K per inning and K/BB of almost 5, but since he's doing it as a polished pitcher, and not via one or two great knockout/strikeout pitch, he'll have to prove it at every level, like Pucetas.  I would expect him to start in AA and to move fast to AAA, he could be our 6th starter alternative by then if he continues to dominate like this.  
• Charlie Culberson:  Breakout season, finally (and remember, only 21 YO in 2010), continued doing well in AFL.  Now he has to repeat, probably plays 2B in AA, but very exciting burst of power, would be great to have at 2B (or maybe even 3B, where he played in 2009).
• Chuckie Jones:  Had great start to pro career with an offensive explosion but 61 strikeouts in 165 AB is a huge question mark.  Still, hit very well as 17 YO in AZL, 2-4 years younger and less experienced, so I would cut him huge slack on the strikeouts for now.  Huge power potential, idolized Pujols growing up, grew up in area, St. Louis was ready to draft in next round.  That's why better for teams to overdraft players they like than risk losing to another team.
• Jarrett Parker:  5 tool potential put him high on some Giants prospect lists.  Nice package overall, still have to see more, as he had a down season in college in 2010.

There are many other prospects who I would normally at least produce a blurb on, but I've been busy lately and don't have time. DrB has a very good list at his site, and just continue reading all the stuff he followed that up with, lots of great info there.

As I noted before, the sad fact about prospects is that the vast majority will fail to become a major leaguer at any point, and an even smaller percentage ever become the starters we all love and follow.   That's part of the reason I keep my list to 6, it is just so hard to make the majors as a starter that the Top 6 typically are those who make it.  Still, part of the fun of prospect hounding is when prospects like Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, rise up the system fast and make the majors.  Unfortunately, there is no way to know who will make that rise, you have to monitor and observe and hope for the best.

Sad Story of Angel:  Continued

Unfortunately, sometimes real life intrudes on our revelry.  Angel Villalona, who probably would have made the list somewhere this season, if not for his murder charge, is still being prosecuted for the murder that he was accused of doing.  His visa has been revoked and I believe he was able to post bail and stay out of jail, living with his family, while the preparations for the trial continues.

Until there is a gun with his fingerprints on it, I don't see how he will get convicted, as there are as many people saying he shot the fatal shot as there are people who swear to his innocence because he was near them when the firing happened.  Too many people on both sides for the truth to be exposed in the courtroom.

The odd thing is that if he is able to be found not guilty, assuming the trial is over sometime this year, he'll still be only 21 YO for next season and probably would be OK in San Jose, eventually, once he goes through instructional league to get back into baseball shape.  However, given how fat he got previously as a pro, I would fear that he has gain a tremendous amount of weight while sitting around in jail and now at home.

2010 Draft Countdown: Deadline Over

According to reports, the Giants have signed both Gary Brown and Jarrett Parker, links to news on their names.

Gary Brown got a bonus of $1.45M which is above the $1.242M slot for the 24th pick overall and is roughly what the 17th pick got.  That is roughly what Lincecum and Bumgarner got over slot at the 10th pick slot.

Jarrett Parker got a bonus of $700K which is above the $492,300 slot for the 74th pick overall and is roughly what the 50th and 51st pick got, roughly beginning of second round bonus for a back of second round pick, and slightly below what BA had him ranked overall on talent, which was roughly back of supplemental first round, or $717K to $800K.

Giants Thoughts

Hopefully one of them will be our future CF, but the odds of either making it to the majors as a good player is relatively low, under 20% collectively, probably closer to 15%.  The draft is a numbers game, the more you have, the greater the odds, particularly if you are valuing the picks correctly regarding bonus, it takes roughly $10-15M in bonuses to find each good player in the draft.

Still, I like Gary Brown's chances to make the majors, the question is how good he'll be.  At minimum, it sounds like he will be a fine defensive player with the speed to handle fielding CF and Death Valley.

People question his hitting but the good points there are that he was the best hitter in the Big West over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki, and that he did well in the Cape Cod league, a wood bat league, in his second season there.  Also, his speed will help him get hits that others wouldn't get, he has incredible speed, equivalent to left-handed batters getting to 1B despite his disadvantage of hitting right-handed.

Also, people knock his lack of walks, but he has shown the ability to take walks when he was not capable of hitting over .400, as he did this season, he was taking a lot of walks in his freshman season, both in the Big West and the Cape Cod league.  It was just that once he figured out the hitting part, he walked less.  I think he will adjust to his ability level to keep his OBP relatively high.

Of course, if he can get on base enough, he'll be the lead-off hitter we have been craving.  And if he can hit for enough power, he could be similar to a younger, faster Andres Torres, though probably not the type of power Torres has flashed so far, maybe the same amount of doubles and triples though, just not as many HR. That would be plenty good for our offense, which should have Posey and Pablo in the middle for years to come.

2010 Draft Countdown: Status Check

Baseball America noted, or rather tweeted, over the past week that many deals have already been done, but that Selig and MLB are holding up the overslot deals, releasing/approving them slowly over time, essentially as a punishment to teams for willingly signing over slot, as he has no authority to punish teams for going over slot, other than to do this.

Gary Brown, our first round pick, was the 24th overall, and the slot last season was $1.242M.  Jarrett Parker, our second round pick, was the 74th pick overall, and the slot last season was $492,300.

The last that I heard in terms of most over slot signings was just over $100K, so our draftees appear to want more the $1.35M and $600K, respectively, and counting....

2010 Giants Second Round Pick: Jarrett Parker, OF

Giants select Jarrett Parker, OF, out of Virginia, with their second pick.  Below is his MLB.com scouting report:

Scouting Report:  Jarrett Parker


Hitting ability: Parker has not shown great bat speed this season and has some holes in his swing.

Power: He does have some power, but it projects to be average, at best.

Running speed: His best tool, he's a plus runner.

Base running: He is a top-of-the-order base-stealing threat.

Arm strength: He has below-average arm strength.

Fielding: He has plus defensive skills.

Range: His speed gives him plus range.

Physical Description: Parker is lean and athletic, kind of like a young Mike Cameron type.

Medical Update: Healthy.

Strengths: Plus speed, which helps him on the basepaths and in center field, where he is a plus defender.

Weaknesses: There are questions about his overall hitting ability, with some holes in his swing and inconsistencies in terms of bat speed.

Summary: Parker had a rough go of it in the Cape Cod League last summer, but there was hope that he'd bounce back and fulfill expectaitons of being one of the more interesting college hitters in this year's class. It hasn't really worked out that way as he's struggled to find offensive consistency, though he was coming on a little bit late. What he does have is plenty of speed, which gives him the ability to steal bases and play a superb center field. Those are marketable skills, and the team that thinks he'll hit will still nab the Virginia outfielder fairly early on.

ogc:  Not too bad, I was seeing his name on some of the later mock drafts for the first round.  Looks like the Giants selected another player (like Brandon Crawford and Kieschnick previously) who was expected to do well in 2010 and be a first rounder, but didn't and thus fell.

Odd pick because he is just like Gary Brown, a speedy CF who plays great defense but don't have much power.  It is almost like they got him in case they don't sign Gary Brown, who is a Boras client.

Still, if both can learn to hit, it would be some fast lineups they will be in.  As I noted in the Gary Brown comments, he actually played more games in the infield than the OF in college, so he could possibly move to the infield at some point if necessary, so picking up both of them is not going to necessarily create a battle between the two of them for one spot.  In fact, Brown was more of a utility guy his freshman year, and he was a middle infielder in high school.  The Giants do have options if both happen to develop.