Your 2010 Giants are 1-1 in NLCS: Beat Phillies in SF!

Thought I would post some thoughts about Giants in-between games.

Pucetas PTBNL in Guillen Trade

It has been announced that Kevin Pucetas was the Player To Be Named Later in the Jose Guillen trade.  As typical, many people were upset about it and went on tirades about Sabean, but Pucetas hasn't been a good prospect since the start of the 2008 season.  I like him, but he is a very long shot now to make the majors, let be a good starter.  I think he was worth the opportunity to see if Guillen could go on a hot streak for us.  Not every gamble is going to succeed and that should not mean that we don't take any risky moves.

Something Needs to be Done About Umpiring

First off, I want to say that I want umpires there, I don't think the game would be the same without human umpires.  That said, there has been unacceptable situations all through the playoffs, whether it be missed calls, inconsistent strike zones, or what have you.  The reason for this is that the umpire union protects those who either no longer has it, or never had it in the first place.

Second, I don't know how hard it is to have a consistent strikezone.  Even if you have a wide zone, as long as you are consistent, then pitchers can beef a little about that, but at least they know what the parameters are and can work within that defined zone.  When it is inconsistent, there is nothing the player can do but be frustrated.  There should be a standard that umpires have to meet, and if they cannot meet it over a 162 game season, then they are bumped to the minors and someone new comes up.  That will give umpires an incentive to do better at this and also leeway that if they all are good, none would lose their jobs.  But if you are fading, then you are out.

Third, there has to be some way for managers to challenge a blatantly bad call, particularly in the playoffs.  Really critical calls don't happen that often in games.  Perhaps managers are allowed "reviews" equal to the number of games in a series they are in (2, 3, or 4 during regular, 5 or 7 during playoffs) that they can use anytime in the series.  That then becomes something strategic that a manager can do.

They can't argue strikes/ball calls, but I would think any other call could be challenged and reviewed via video.  If the review is not clear, then the umpires could huddle together and decide, though I doubt they would reverse their fellow umpire's call, but that is the breaks sometime.  But most of the time, the replay, particularly in slo-mo, will show clearly what happened, depending on the angle.  I would also allow the teams to argue their points, to show the replay that supports their position.  Doesn't add that much more time to a game than a TV timeout, in my opinion, but it could change the balance of the game.

Co-Dy!

Cody Ross has been the MVP of both playoff series so far, IMO.   His performance made me think of Gene Tenace's performance for the A's in the early 70's.  Lots of people have been saying that the Giants got a player that they didn't want, but forget that teams logically shouldn't claim a player unless they want him, because the other team could just decide to dump the player on you, particularly when it is the cheapskate Marlins, who saved $1M by giving Ross to the Giants.

Andy Baggarly wrote on Ross here, interviewing Sabean, who noted that plus left the "clear impression that the club will tender him [Ross] a contract, noting, "His situation is not daunting.  His numbers isn't going to go off the map.  His platform year was last year, not this year, so it's a very affordable situation if we go that route.

On his end, Ross said that he would love to work out a multi-year deal:

“When I got an idea of how this team is and is going to be, and playing in front of that crowd every day, I can’t see a place I’d rather be,” he said. “This has been an amazing experience for me. I’d love to play here longer than these few months or even another year. I’d like to finish my career here.”

Also, from John Shea:

Ross might have assured himself a Giants contract in 2011 with his work in the NLDS. Considering the NLCS, it could be multiyear. "This team is built for years to come, and I'd love to play here longer than this run we're having," Ross said. "I'd like to stay for my career." He'll be eligible for arbitration after making $4.45 million this year, and general manager Brian Sabean said it'll be "nothing that will break the bank" and "an affordable situation."

I don't think the Giants are going to go that far out, but a two year deal plus option is probably definitive doable (though Schierholtz won't be happy about that).

Uggla to Join the Giants too?

Also, apparently Ross is friends with Dan Uggla and he is extolling the virtues of playing for SF, according to John Shea:

Ross has been filling Dan Uggla's head with stories about how dandy it is to play for the Giants, who have explored trades for the Marlins' power-hitting infielder. In fact, Ross has tried to persuade Uggla not to sign a long-term deal with Florida before his final year of arbitration so he can sign with the Giants after the 2011 season.

That can work in many ways.  Both Uggla and Sanchez has experience playing 3B, particularly Sanchez at the MLB level (plus defense there FYI, and that might give his offense a boost, as he hit much better when starting at 3B), which would move Pablo to 1B now and Huff to the corner OF.  Also, Sanchez's contract is over in 2010, so they could just replace Sanchez with Uggla, if they decide to go that route.  Uggla could probably play 1B too, moving Huff to corner OF again.

The main problem with that is the money factor, though DeRosa's and Sanchez's contract would be up that season, freeing up $12M for Uggla, but our pitchers, including Lincecum, Wilson, and Sanchez, will be due large raises by then via arbitration.  The only way we can sign Uggla to a contract he would want is if Neukom can back up his promise to consider all baseball decisions and allow him to work the money and see if he can get it done.

I still predict that the Giants want and will get $50M+ from the A's for permission to move to San Jose (only fair because they never paid much, if any, to enter the market in the first place and dilute the fan base).  The situation is very similar to the Washington Nationals moving into the Baltimore Orioles territory and the concessions that they made to get into DC.  That could fund the Giants top players at least to mid-2010's, by which point Zito's contract would be off the books, freeing up $20M, until the mortgage is up in 2019, then that'll be another $20M to spend on players.

Plus the money that MLBAM (their internet arm) will bring in as well, it has been a huge success.  More importantly, it probably will eventually suck money away from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and D-gers, and into the collective fund that the MLBAM represents.  That will even up the teams over time, making the league more fairer, like the NFL and NBA, than the unfair unevenness that exists today where the Yankees can spend 4 times more than some of the poorest teams.

Renteria May Have Earned his $9.5M Salary With Tip

Renteria has had a horribly disappointing season, which he acknowledged in an interview with the Chronicle in September, if I recall right.  We obviously all knew that, but it is rare that an athlete would admit that in an interview.  It totally appears that we got virtually nothing for our money.

However, he may have earned much of that, if not all, with his tip that he gave Cody Ross.  As reported by Henry Schulman:

Cody Ross, the Giants' postseason MVP thus far, was hitless in nine consecutive at-bats after a second-inning double in Game 2 of the Division Series against Atlanta. The ninth was a strikeout against starter Derek Lowe in the third inning of Game 4 at Turner Field.

Renteria noticed a mechanical flaw. Ross lifts his front foot as the pitch is thrown for timing and was not getting it down quickly enough. That made it harder to see the pitch deep into the zone.

"I went and watched video after my at-bat and he was right. I wasn't," Ross said.

Next time up in the sixth inning, with the Giants trailing 1-0, Ross homered to end Lowe's bid for a no-hitter. In the seventh, Ross grounded a single through the hole to drive in what became the winning run in the series clincher.

He did not stop there. His next two at-bats came in Game 1 of the NLCS on Saturday, and he homered each time against Roy Halladay to ignite the Giants' 4-3 win, then added his fourth homer of the postseason Sunday against Roy Oswalt.

As a reserve, Renteria gets a lot of time to watch and said he provides hitting tips liberally.

"Even if you're not playing, you have to help," Renteria said. "It's a team. You see something wrong with somebody, you've got to tell him. You hope he watches the video and agrees with you."

If Ross can keep on hitting like this during this series and help get the Giants into the World Series, I would consider Renteria's salary earned with that one very valuable tip.  Apparently he has been approached to become a coach, as he has discussed retiring after this season because of his physical ills, but he is leaning towards business ventures (well, he did get $19M from us...) instead of coaching, if he decides to retire.

I Believe in Bochy

I wrote last season that I didn't think that Bochy would be the manager who could lead the Giants to the World Series, that they would get there in spite of him, if anything, because he wasn't willing to make moves that would piss off vets who deserved to be pushed aside, when needed, during the playoffs.  However, this season has changed my mind on him, I believe he is the guy to bring us that World Series championship.

Among other things, he benched Rowand and started Torres, dumped Wellemeyer once Bumgarner was ready, pushed out Romo then accepted him back in (Dusty would have just kept him in the doghouse), went with Posey over Molina once they thought he was ready, kept Renteria on the bench even though he was healthy while continuing to start Uribe, kept Sandoval going as long as he wasn't mucking things up so much (i.e. as long as they were winning) but benched him quickly in playoffs when he wasn't doing well, and most importantly of all, left Guillen and particularly Zito off the playoff rosters so far, while starting Cody Ross and Madison Bumgarner over the two of them.  I am sure there are others, these are the ones that came to mind quickly.

The playoffs are a different environment.  You have to risk pissing off somebody at one point or another in order to maximize your chances of winning, egos be damned.  That is one big reason why I was happy Dusty was gone after 2002, there was no way Kenny Lofton should have been starting in CF while Shinjo played DH, and given what we now know about Nen's arm, there is no way you take out a starter who has been doing very well, like Ortiz had been, and especially with a big lead, you ride that horse as long as you can before you go to the bullpen, saving those arms in case any of them have problems shutting down the opposition.  And if the reliever is doing well, you wait until the last batter to use Nen, at best.  Ideally your set-up guy saves the game - Nen's ego be damned - and you don't risk Nen's body failing him at an inopportune moment.

I believe that Bochy is capable of doing that, well, because he just did it, big time, leaving Barry Zito off the playoff roster.  Can't make a bigger move than that, well, other than leaving Rowand off the roster too, though he appears to be justified in that move, Rowand has delivered on a pinch-hit and is under consideration to be starting at least Game 3.

Giants in Good Position

I think the Giants are in good position.  Many media-heads (including one I've criticized here often before), talks about how the Phillies have been awoken by this one game.  Frankly, a lot of mistakes by the Giants helped the Phillies score all those runs.  Take away Fontenot's and Huff's mistakes, and the Phillies only had 1 run, and it would have been tied and going into extra innings, exposing their bullpen.

People seem to forget, the Giants played the Phillies even during the season, and could have been ahead if not for a bloop double in the 9th with runners on base.  They have beaten each of the Phillies top three starters this season, and Blanton, who they did not defeat, has had a horrible season up to now, I don't see him doing that to the Giants once again.  Because the Giants have been able to beat up enough on the other teams' good pitchers to win, they did it all through September, and now during the playoffs.

The media-heads also are not aware that starting pitchers can take over games when they are on, whether they be great pitchers or journeyman pitchers.  Hot hitters, such as the comments about how Rollins may be waking up and getting hot (and that is only one game that he got two hits, and the first was a dribbler), as I noted before, he can hit 2-3 homers, but if nobody is on, they can still easily lose, don't matter how hot a hitter is, it takes a team to score.

However, if the starting pitcher is on, he can dominate any game, don't matter what lineup is up against him, even a good offensive team like the Phillies.  And the Giants are throwing four very good starting pitchers against them, Lincecum 2-time Cy Young winner, Cain has been pitching great since he was 20 YO, and Sanchez and Bumgarner led or was among top in ERA for September/October games, with 1.01 and 1.13 ERA, respectively.  That is Bob Gibson low.

And these pitchers have been battle tested by doing what needed to be done in September/October.  Not each and every time, but on the basis of series, the Giants won 8 of their last 10 series, including one four game series, both on the road and at home.  Plus, of course, Atlanta, if you count the whole set as a series.

With the next three games in SF, if the Giants can continue to win series, they would win 2 of the 3 (right now the matchups are Cain vs. Hamels, Bumgarner vs. Blanton, Lincecum vs. Halladay), which would leave them leading 3 games to 2 and going back to Philly needing to win one of two while the Phillies would need to win both games.  That's good odds for the Giants.

Game 3 Lineup

The talk is about replacing Torres and Fontenot in the lineup.  I agree with both, and for Rowand and Sandoval.  Frankly, the way Torres is flailing, Rowand's hitting should make up the difference in defense, and if he catches on fire (he's been rested enough) he can carry a team, much like he did in early May.  Hopefully we can catch lightening in the bottle with him.

And I still strongly believe in Sandoval, and given the poor defense Fontenot showed at 3B on Sunday, don't believe that Sandoval could be that much worse playing 3B.  Meanwhile, a Sandoval who is over his jitters being in the playoffs could start delivering premium offense to our sputtering offense - he hit .343/.395/.486/.880 in his last 10 starts in the season.  His walk yesterday suggests that he might be over his jitters and yips earlier against Atlanta, because otherwise he would be have been swinging wildly and not even come close to a 2 ball-count, let alone a walk.

The problem is who to lead off if Torres is not in the lineup.  Frankly, if Rowand is in the lineup, it seems like Bochy would lead him off.  He would impress me even more, a la above, if he went with someone else in this scenario.  Andy Baggarly has been suggesting that Ross would be ideal for leadoff because of his success against Hamels, as well as his high OBP, and it would be hard to bet against him because he always seems to have some inside info that makes him prescient in his speculations.

But given his power, I would rather have someone else leadoff, like Franchez, and bat Cody 2nd, so that he can power home Franchez if he gets on base (or the 8th place hitter), and if not that, get on base for Huff, Posey, Burrell behind him.  Plus, as Jeff Oscodar tweeted and reminded me, Sanchez had two hits on Sunday, so perhaps his being a playoff virgin jitters are over now.

Potential lineup:

1. Freddy Sanchez 2B
2. Cody Ross RF
3. Aubrey Huff 1B
4. Buster Posey C
5. Pat Burrell LF
6. Edgar Renteria SS
7. Aaron Rowand CF
8. Pablo Sandoval 3B
9. Matt Cain

I like this one for reasons above, plus Renteria has delivered in key RBI situations in his career, Rowand does better in lower pressure situations like 7th, and Sandoval, if he is on (plus he batted here often to end the season), he can frustrate pitchers trying to pitch around him to get to the pitcher by him squaring up pitches just outside and driving them for hits, forcing them to either give him the IBB or focus on pitching outside the strike zone, which I personally think screws with some pitcher's mechanics and thinking.

Then for game 4, if Rowand doesn't hit, you put in Schierholtz and give him a shot against the RHP playing in RF.  The Giants could also put Huff in RF and play Ishikawa at 1B, he has delivered big-time during this series as well.  I would probably lean towards Ishikawa because he has delivered more consistently than Schierholt has the past two seasons, but Schierholtz, when hot, can help carry the team, so I would be OK with starting him too.  Basically you play as many players as you can, within limits, and try to find that hot hand that can carry you for a week or two, like Bochy found in Ross.  The Giants need to find another hitter or three if they hope to win this series and advance to the World Series stage.

Go Giants!

Madison's Missing MPH Mystery Solved

Praise be to Andy Baggarly!  Today he wrote about Madison Bumgarner's struggles and missing velocity, which has mystified Giants fans (and prospect hounds) since spring training started and it was ultimately simple and a series of things:  a busy off-season and poor mechanics that resulted as a consequence.  Read here.

Giants Thoughts

Basically, he spent the off-season more on personal stuff, like getting married (and being married), and thus was unprepared for spring training.  That snowballed into his inability to get his mechanics into shape, which is apparently a hard to achieve thing because of his cross body throwing.  And thus he has had a very poor spring for anyone, let alone one of the top pitching prospects in the minors.  Sabean feels that Bumgarner is essentially in spring training mode still, figuring out things.

It took Tidrow going down, after two horrible starts by Bumgarner in AAA, and straightening out the mechanics, and Bumgarner in his last start was consistently in the low 90's and topped out at 93 when all spring long he was only mustering up high 80's stuff.  That led to him not getting hit around, so he went 6 IP, gave up 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 earned.  Still only 3 strikeouts but only 1 walk, so that would have been a 4 PQS start, a DOM start.

Tidrow is a god!

I thought about why it took the Giants so long to take action and to fix things up.  It makes sense to let him do things on his own.  He's not a child, and you can't watch over everything he does and control his off-season.  He's now a married man, with responsibilities beyond baseball.

I see this as a learning lesson for him on how to better prepare himself in future off-seasons.  In addition, if he was building up any ego over the past two years, this experience should humble him a bit ( a lot) plus make him appreciate all that the Giants can do for him.  This is all part of the journey to where he could learn to be consistently good all the time, and how to prepare himself for that.  The struggling was necessary for that journey, to gain some insight into oneself, to grow up.

And not a moment too soon.  The shiny gloss that Wellemeyer had during spring training is now dulled by the poor results this season.  Admittedly, it is just two starts, and he actually did well for 6 innings against Houston before imploding in the 7th.  Still, that's part of the job, to go longer when the bullpen is cleared out the day before.  San Diego will not be a great test for him, plus the game is in Petco, a known and strong pitcher's park. 

His next start against the Phillies would be a better gauge of where he is.  It would be his fourth start, so the small sampling issue will fade.  The Phillies are a great hitting team.  Still, they are probably the other extreme, they are one of the best offensive teams, if not the best in the NL. 

I think we need to get deep into May before we have a good hand on where he is.   His following starts would be Florida on the road, New York on the road, Houston at home, Arizona on road, Washington at home, and Colorado at home.  Florida and New York would be good tests.  Houston (though Berkman could be back by now) and Arizona not as much, nor, probably Washington.  And Colorado at home would be good. 

So we should have a good view of his current talent set by mid-May after Florida and NY on the road, but a pretty good view by the end of May.  By then, Bumgarner should be out of spring training mode and performing closer to what we have been used to the prior two seasons.  The decision on Wellemeyer vs. Bumgarner can be tackled in mid-to-late May as to what is better for the team.

I am hoping that Wellemeyer does well, both because that is good for the team overall and because then he would be much more valuable in a mid-season trade, should Bumgarner be ready for his close-up. 

It is good also because I think Bumgarner needs the additional time in Fresno.  Clearly, he is not as mature as one needs to be in order to be a MLB starter.  The Giants making him the #5 starter early in the off-season was a head-scratcher when that first came out, but now it looks like the Giants were testing him, to see if he has what it got to focus on the goal, particularly since they probably knew that he was getting married too and would be pre-occupied.  They wanted to see if he could rise to the opportunity.  Obviously, he didn't pass that test but hopefully has learned some lessons.

People also forget (and I count myself among them) that Bumgarner is still only 20 years old.  He is still learning things and immature in many ways, like we all were when we were 20 years old.  And as last season showed, his stamina is not up to MLB standards yet, he was already starting to tire mid-season, when his dead arm (that Krukow said is normal for young guys in their second year in pro ball) cropped up.  He could have more development necessary to stretch out his arm more.

There will be some key factors on when Bumgarner should come up.  Obviously, first off, he has to be doing well, going forward.   Beyond that, the team should be monitoring his velocity and making sure that he is not losing velocity again. 

If Wellemeyer continues to struggle and a move needs to be made, as I think about that, the more I think the better move would be to bring up Kevin Pucetas so that we may have the opportunity to evaluate how he does as a major league starter.  That would effectively be his audition and if he does well enough, he could become a trading chip, and if he pitches really well, we could ride him to the end of the season, and wait for 2011 to give Bumgarner a chance to be the fifth starter.

It all depends on need, but if we can get by without Bumgarner as the fifth starter, I would rather we bring him up in late August into the bullpen.  Our bullpen should be starting to drag by then, and a fresh young arm would help energize it.  In addition, he's a heck of a pitcher when he is on, so he would help to secure more leads and convert them into wins.  He could be like our K-Rod that the Angels had in the 2002 playoffs, the wild card unknown who could dazzle the hitters into submission, as needed.

That is basically what I want to do with Buster Posey too, bring him up near the end so that he's a fresh young great hitter who we have coming off the bench.  I drool over the advantage that would give us over other clubs in the playoffs.  In addition, he would be perfect should we reach the World Series, as he could then be our DH for most games, and jump in and start at catcher, allowing Molina a rest to keep his bat rested and ready to hit by DHing.  (FYI, Sabean in a recent interview noted that money and service time will not be factors in when to bring up Posey, that it has never been a factor, his coming up will be a baseball decision). 

Both their times will come eventually, but if things work out right, we can have them both on our bench ready to contribute in significant roles during the pennant race and then the playoffs should we make it in.  Either way, they look like, with another season under their belt, they will be ready to take starting roles for us in 2011.

People say that Sabean sucks, but you need to see the big picture of where the team is evolving.  Creating a winning team is very rarely a revolutionary change to suddenly you are a winner when you were losing big time before (and FYI, Sabean was one of the few to do such a thing), it is usually an evolution as prospects, who mature at varying rates, join the team and start to produce.  Once you get a critical mass, like we did last season, then you can start looking forward to competing for the division title, and then the following year, you add other pieces to fill gaps and hopefully seal the deal that year or the following year after that. 

This requires patience, which is very lacking into today's 24x7 world of instant gratification and ADD epidemic.  Rebuilding takes time.  Time for the good prospects you now have access to because you are drafting in the first third of the first round (where the odds are 20-45% of finding a good player) instead of the last third of the first round (around 11%) to develop (typically need 2-4 years to develop into MLB players, then additional years sometime to develop into good players).   Time for your international free agents to mature and develop.  Time for the right free agents to pop up to fill your gaps (and sometimes they never show up, so you need to trade for them). 

And meanwhile, your current 25 man roster is aging too, so you can't be overly patient either.  You need to find that balance, as we all need to do in life, no matter what we do or who we are.

I'm More Than Ecstatic: And Cain Makes Three - Cain Signs Extension

Reports from Baggs, sfgiants.com, and Hank say that the Giants have signed Matt Cain to a contract extension. Some call it a three year extension, but really, it keeps his current year salary the same ($4.25M), gives him a bump upward in the last year of the contract ($7M plus $1M signing bonus for 2011), which was a vestable option year (nearly $2M raise over the $6.25M vestable option that has escalators and stuff), and $15M for his first year in free agency, which is 2012. They held off of announcing the official signing of Jeremy Affeldt and Brian Wilson which had been leaked out before last week, in order to announce all three signings over the weekend.

As Brian Sabean noted, "It's our window. ... To have these guys for [2012] now. The comfort in knowing that they are going to be in Giants uniforms helping us win games is a statement in itself. It seems fitting. It seems the right thing to do it. Having said that, if we didn't get business done in spring training, we would have halted [the negotiations]. We didn't want it to be a distraction." Sabean noted that they started the talks during the off-season, then started in earnest with everyone at the start of March. Sabean also noted, "We have cost certainty and the fans have the comfort of knowing these guys are going to be in Giants uniforms helping us win games."

Baggarly had a quote with Cain regarding the deal on his blog and Schulman in his article, where Cain discusses how happy he and his wife were with the deal. Cain said, "I think it shows some appreciation of all the things I've done for the Giants, but I also think it shows the way they run the organization. It's a great situation where we could do something for both sides. Me and [wife] Chelsea are more than ecstatic about doing this."

Baggarly wrote in his blog:

So the Giants could be looking at a dynastic staff, which is partially what motivated Cain to re-up. He’s not the type to seek his own glory as a No.1 elsewhere. He’s never begrudged “living under Timmy’s shadow” the past couple seasons. On the contrary, he said he loves the competition.

“Obviously, the best I got to see were the big three in Atlanta,” Cain said. “We saw it in Oakland with Zito, Mulder and Hudson. It builds us all up. I feel we all share the leadership every time we go out there and pitch.”

“That’s what we’ve been talking about all spring training, that all of us love playing together and really feed off each other. We’ve got great chemistry and that shows with them being able to do these deals. They see this core group and they want to keep these guys together.” "

Baggarly noted in the article:

Cain said he had no reservations about signing away his first year of free agency. He hadn't thought ahead about testing the market, nor was he motivated by the thought of going to another club where he could escape Tim Lincecum's shadow and be the staff ace

"When you see a group of pitchers stay together like that "... it builds us all up," said Cain, citing the 1990s-era Atlanta Braves and the Oakland A's staffs with Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. "I feel we all share the leadership every time we go out there and pitch."

Lincecum and No. 4 starter Jonathan Sanchez won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season.

"It's amazing to watch these guys throwing seven shutout innings every night," Wilson said. "Every player strives to be part of an organization that values you. "... You work even harder to maintain it and go for the next one. I'll try to be a Giant for the rest of my career."

How wide could this window open for the Giants? Sabean was hesitant to say it could match the unprecedented run the club made from 1997-2003 behind Bonds.

"This group would really have to step it up," Sabean said. "Having said that, maybe last year was the beginning of a run the pitching staff will help to carry. We'll have to figure out more offense in and around this."

They will need much of that offense to come from the farm. The Giants forecast to have limited financial flexibility, particularly in 2012 when Cain and Zito will make $35 million and Tim Lincecum could be due another huge number in arbitration. Aware that his rotation could become a budget killer, Sabean said he's hoping the organization's young hitting prospects will pan out.

As for the risk of investing in pitching?

"It's not like we're giving four- or five-year deals," Sabean said. "We're past that. They're short-window deals that you'd expect both parties would make out."

Schulman wrote:

In all, ownership agreed to shell out $43.5 million above its previous commitments to Cain, Affeldt and Wilson. The team gains cost certainty while risking guaranteed money to pitchers who might get hurt. The pitchers enjoy that guaranteed money against the risk of leaving more dollars on the table in arbitration and free agency. ...

Cain also said he and his teammates want to be together well into the future.

"We really feed off each other," he said. "We feel we've got great chemistry with everybody. We love this, the fact that we'll be able to play with Wilson the next couple of years, Zito, Timmy, all these guys."

Cain compared the continuity of the Giants' rotation now to the Braves' trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, and the A's big three of Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder.

Wilson, whose 79 saves the last two seasons rank fourth in the majors, said, "Oh, sweet," when told all the deals were done. He pledged to work harder than ever so he can earn another contract "and try to be a Giant for the rest of my career."

Giants Thoughts

Dynastic staff is what I've been talking about the Giants rotation. I'm been writing for a while now about how pitching is our future (since the Giants said that Bonds was no longer our future, one of the Mercury columnist wondered what next and I noted that it's clearly pitching) and how powerful it is to have a pitching rotation that can dominate the other teams in a series, when they have a high PQS DOM%. And now we have all the major pieces covered to 2012 plus still control Lincecum and Sanchez to 2013.

Some are not happy because of the restrictions on the payroll budget due to these guaranteed monies. But at some point, you have to realize that this was coming along with the success of our pitchers, that at some point they are going to get paid big money. And that the Giants management realized that.

I think that Neukom's stance with Sabean regarding the budget, that he should not feel constrained by the budget when bringing baseball recommendations to Neukom, shows that he understood this budget dynamic, punctuated by Zito's huge contract and then Rowand's contract.

But people forget that by 2011, the year some are worried about the Giants payroll, the Giants only have two more seasons of Rowand's salary and three more of Zito (highly unlikely his team option will be picked up nor that he earn the vesting by averaging 200 IP over any stretch). And that by the end of the 2011 season, that's only one season of Rowand and two of Zito remaining, making their contracts easier to trade off if the Giants pony up some money to push their final cost to the other team down to more reasonable levels. And who knows, if Rowand is as improved as he appears to be this spring - after finally figuring out that he should get in shape to earn his money - and if Zito can continue his great second half of 2009 into 2010 and 2011, the Giants could make the trade easily, again with some money added in, but which would save a huge chunk of money for our young players due raises.

In addition, Neukom should not offer to extend the payroll if he wasn't serious, because that would be seriously bad PR for Sabean to say this publicly and it don't happen and we end up trading someone good just to save money. Reportedly they were kicking the tires on Manny Ramirez when the D-gers were trying to re-sign him, which would have meant a bump in the budget of up to $20M that season (I think they were a little under budget at that time).

That is a serious bump of money to allow, even for only one season, so Neukom has a sugar daddy somewhere he can tap into easily for that big coin because from my observation of how much money he supposedly made off Microsoft stock, money he has invested in owning a big chunk of the Giants, and donations he and his wife have made to universities, he should not have a lot of money left (well, plenty for you and me but not to cover that) to cover such a big bump upward.

Other Giants News and Thoughts

Speaking of Neukom, there was a nice article on him on sfgiants.com recently. He talked about this plans for the Giants, both present and future, and about The Giants Way. Part of this way is that they are investing in helping their prospects and players stay in better shape and conditioning, hiring staff and buying equipment:

"The baseball's got to speak for itself because there are so many variables," he said. "We're investing in homegrown talent. We have this very clear strategy, which is better conditioning, better prepared, more clear-headed people playing baseball, and we want to get to a sustainable level of exciting baseball played the right way. After that, we'll have to see what happens."

Neukom raved about the team's mini-camp in January and how much he was impressed with the players' condition when they arrived for Spring Training. ...

"We're at a stage now where we are strong enough to think we don't have to rush [Minor League players] ahead of schedule," he said. "Traditionally, you think in terms of the best and most talented prospects, baseball people would want him to spend probably four years in the Minors before he was ready to come up and contribute at the Major League level.

"It varies from player to player and team to team. We don't want to be desperate. We don't want to rush kids ahead of when they should be coming up, and I think we're in that situation." ...

Neukom said he has spoken to fans and has answers for those who have questions about the team's approach.

"I tell them our goal is a medium-term, long-term goal," he said. "The immediate step was getting the Giants to play winning baseball and to build on that increasingly from homegrown talent and become the kind of team that contend year in and year out. Nobody can have a strict timetable on that."

Finally, we are working to get all our prospects in shape and a good state of mind to focus on baseball. One step at a time. And a great commitment to bulding up the farm system and using that as a key component of keeping the team strong now and in the future. Assuming the team continues to win, that means going after players who fell in the draft because of concerns over how much they want in bonus and paying much over slot for them (which they appear to have had no problem with previously, going way over for Posey and Wheeler) and going after the top Latin American talent out there, preferably hitters as they seem to be better bets relatively (and which is the way they have been doing it, as Villalona and RafRod are the two big signings plus the Giants were in on a couple of other position prospects as well before losing to other clubs).

In other news, Todd Wellemeyer should get announced as the 5th starter. Also, I heard Schulman on KNBR over the weekend (I really liked him on radio, I enjoyed that a lot, he should do a lot more of that on KNBR, I hope) and he covered his blog on the 25-man roster that I wrote about the other day. He made his point that the Giants don't want to put additional stress on their young starter's arm early in the season by giving them additional games, so Wellemeyer will be taking his 5th starter starts which means the Giants will need a long relief guy to be there, which in his thinking would mean Pucetas. And I agree that it is likely that Pucetas will win that role because of how well he had done in spring until his outing this weekend, which ultimately wasn't that bad as he recovered to give us three innings.

However, Schulman also noted that Henry Sosa is being given the opportunity to make the team - a good sign is that he's still with the team - and Sosa has experience as a starter but looks to be a reliever long-term because he's a high effort thrower who has been battling physical problems, and relief would put less stress on him. Sosa has had a great spring as well and would not cost the Giants a 40-man slot because he's already on it (unlike, say, Denny Bautista; the Giants do have two spots open now with the Frandsen trade, but Wellemeyer and Mota appear to have them locked up, Wellemeyer particularly so). So the Giants could decide to bring him up to be the long reliever and sent Pucetas down to AAA to be ready to start if we need it.

I think that is a strong possibility. Pucetas wouldn't be prepared to take a starter's spot if he's pitching long-relief for us. Of course, Bumgarner is probably the first line of defense there, and Pucetas could be sent down at that time to be prepared in case there is another need for a starter. But Pucetas did not do that well last season in AAA, he had a couple of good months early but overall was not that great, and in particular could not strike out very many hitters.

So he still has something to prove in terms of dominating hitters at a higher level, he could have been very lucky this spring (that is why scouting is so much more important than just eyeing the stats like I and others do - but then again, that is all that is available to me). I can see the Giants wanting to see him do well for a season in AAA and be ready to start for them as necessary during the season, while Sosa be our long-guy. That could lead to Sosa joining middle relief next season while Pucetas then take the long reliever role, assuming he does well in AAA this season plus beat out Joe Martinez next spring.

In addition, Baggarly noted that Fred Lewis has been complaining about a rib injury problem, so I smell an extended stint for Lewis on the DL, while the starting RF situation sorts itself out on the 25-man roster in the meanwhile. Schierholtz has been struggling - again unfortunately - and with Bowker's sudden surge (I would note that he wasn't doing that great until those few games, so it would seem odd that Bowker could win the position with just a couple of good games of hitting when not doing that great before), there has been a lot of news about Schierholtz still battling to win the RF spot, and now with Bowker's surge, the Giants might visit Bowker starting in LF while DeRosa starts in RF (which someone else noted DeRosa hasn't played any of this spring, but I would note that he played RF a bit in previous seasons - and well usign UZR/150 rating - and didn't get many/any starts in LF prior to this season, which hasn't even started yet).

Sabean also discussed extensively about Nate's struggles, which can't help him either. Still, that's life as a major leaguer, and the sooner Schierholtz gets used to all that, the sooner he can show what he got at the major league level. He needs to stop tinkering and just do the old rule of: see ball, hit ball, and not complicate it with whether to use batting gloves or not, and so forth.

In any case, if Lewis is on the DL, then the Bowker and Schierholtz (and Torres too I suppose, and maybe Velez too) situation will unfold and perhaps the Giants will put Lewis back on the 25-man roster and move someone else off, instead of trading him. Or by then some other team might be a bit more desperate for an OF capable of starting and give us a better prospect for him.

2010: Two Weeks of Spring to Go, Roster-bastion

With two weeks to go to the season opener, I thought I would take a look at the 25 man roster and how that is shaping up.

Spots Locked Up

• Tim Lincecum


• Barry Zito


• Matt Cain


• Jonathan Sanchez


• Brian Wilson


• Jeremy Affeldt


• Sergio Romo


• Brandon Medders


• Dan Runzler: continues to leave no doubts that he's here to stay and perhaps could be a future closer.


• Bengie Molina: he has had a hot spring, hoping to show that he's worth the money he signed for, saying all the right things about him and Posey. And, showing support for a fellow Latino in a new job and trying to impress, he says that he is listening to Bam-Bam Meulen's instruction to lay off pitches and take more walks: he has picked up 3 already, which is pretty good for him, he normally would have 1, at best.


• Aubrey Huff: has been one of the team's best hitters this spring, but unfortunately not one of their best or even average defenders. It was his struggles there that made the impetus to play Posey at 1B seem more acute for fans and the return of Ishikawa to the team and the roster more important. But he leads the team in homers (tied with Lewis) and SLG plus taking a lot of walks while keeping his strikeouts low, all great signs. And a recent article notes improvements in his defense, as well as his view that it was a bum rap that stuck with him. Still, looking at his UZR/150 on fangraphs, he was rated as costing his team nearly half a win with his defense at 1B - slightly below average but still not that good. In comparison, Ishikawa's defense last year over a full season would contribute 2 wins to the Giants. The key whether he makes up for that difference is how he handles AT&T's tendency to destroy the ISO and SLG for left-handed hitters. I also hope that he can pass on some vet savvy to Ishikawa regarding hitting, he is stil the future 1B for 2011, at least for the moment.


• Juan Uribe: given the starting 2B spot in Sanchez's absence, but not doing so well this spring, he's going to have to hit much better once the season starts, or the Giants could start DeRosa there instead and give starts to Lewis in LF instead, given how well Lewis has been hitting.


• Pablo Sandoval: took a gash on his leg that took 5 stitches, but he should be ready to play once the season start. He's not hitting that well this spring (though great for power), but his numbers would change dramatically with just one or two extra hits instead of outs, so I'm not worried.


• Edgar Renteria: has not been hitting great, but with so few AB in spring (34 so far, but among the leaders), one extra hit separates him from his current .265/.306/.353/.659 batting line and a .294/.335/.382/.717 batting line (before today's game), which is OK for OBP. Not the greatest, but his swing is cleaner this spring and he's able to extend his arms, which will allow him to slash line drives towards right field. I am still hopeful for him to return to his career norms in 2010, and he's been warming up, he is 8 for 23 in his last 7 games, including his first XBH of spring (2B today and HR on Sat), roughly .348/.375/.522/.897 for that short stretch. If he can return to the plus hitter he was before, our offense will be much improved.


• Mark DeRosa: held off from playing games because of his surgery recovery, he hasn't played many games, nor as been doing much in those games, mainly in the power department, which is one strong reason why we got him. Hopefully his power returns soon.


• Aaron Rowand: hitting .500 and looking good overall, except for his injury (always a worry with him).

That is 16 spots locked up, leaving 9 spots open still.

Spots Pretty Much Locked Up

This is where it gets more interesting.

• Nate Schierholtz: out of options, they would lose him if they should cut him, so he's at least got a bench OF job, at minimum. By hitting for more power this spring, despite his low batting average, his OPS is in the mid-700's, doable for winning RF, I think, despite how well Torres is doing. He should be our starting RF at the start of the 2010 season.


• Travis Ishikawa: out of options but more importantly, the only major league ready (and viable) option at 1B right now (Brett Pill is reportedly pretty good defensively too, but was only in AA last season and only did OK there; he will have to hit a lot better to start in the majors) that the Giants can go to if Aubrey Huff's decline in 2009 continues. Huff's spring suggests otherwise, but still, he's only signed for one year and his defense is reportedly mediocre, at best, meaning there appears to be a great need for a good defensive 1B to come in for Huff at the end of close games. Ishikawa appars to be that guy.
• Todd Wellemeyer: signed to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, he has made the most of his opportunities, pitching himself onto the team, for the most part, barring any late spring meltdown. Recent reports stated that his 2009 problems were related to a dead arm from throwing so much in 2008, so he worked out more this off-season to get himself ready to pitch strongly throughout the season. He now says he feels like he did two years ago with a 3.71 ERA. And Molina noticed the difference in stuff too, how he's more like 2008 than 2009. He should be the 5th starter, though he might start the year as long relief, depending on how the Giants handle the 5th starter, as they could decide to skip the 5th starter until late April.

Remaining Spots

Even more intriguing is who will win the final spots.

• Long Relief - Pucetas?: As noted, there is no need for a long reliever if the 5th starter is not used until late April. I go back and forth on that, as I think Kevin Pucetas earned a spot, but I'm thinking that instead of sitting him on the bench during the season, they are going to let Pucetas start regularly in AAA and show that his improvements in spring is a long-term improvement, so that if the Giants should need to bring him up, due to whatever reasons, he'll be prepared to come up and start. May as well keep him conditioned to be a starter.
• Long Relief: That leaves a spot from someone else, which I think they will give to an experienced reliever, which is a position they stated a number of times this off-season. Contenders include Guillermo Moto (not doing well so far, walking a lot, 5 appearances), Santiago Casilla (came in late), and Denny Bautista (doing very well in 7 appearances). Tony Pena has also done well too, but he hasn't pitched much yet (3.2 IP in 4 games) so his chances are slimmer. Joe Martinez was hampered by his injury, which still appears to be affecting him, so he'll probably end up in AAA. Bautista would appar to be the front-runner for this position at the moment, but a reliever's performance is notoriously variable because of the few opportunities to show what they got and the large amount of randomness that affects their performance, so I would say that it's still up in the air and the winner will probably be someone doing well in the next two weeks.
• Last Middle Relief spot: I think that this spot will go to a worthy internal prospect. Waldis Joaquin came in as the likely filler of this spot but has not done that well, giving up a lot of hits while not strking out many (1 in 7.2 IP). With his velocity, he should be striking out bunches of guys. Kind of like how Alex Hinshaw has been doing, he looks like he could grab this spot (5 appearances, 3.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts, 0 R/ER). Henry Sosa has also done well but he's probably going to AAA this season, as he was in AA last season, and I think they still want to see if he can make it as a starter. It is possible that they could decide to go with two experienced relievers, but if Hinshaw continues to do so well, I don't see how he wouldn't win this spot right now.
• Backup Catcher: I would think Whiteside got the job. I think the Giants have been pushing Posey as a possibility so that they have an excuse to play Posey with the major leaguers all spring and give him more experience against major leaguers plus better evaluate where he is relative to major leaguers, but then make him one of the last cuts, saying he's our future starting catcher and we need to get him ready for that by starting regularly at catcher in AAA and gaining more experience that way. Then he can come up mid-season, he won't be a Super-Two, he would have played a lot of games, but not enough to tire him out, and would be a great bat off the bench while also resting Molina at catcher, picking up a few starts at 1B to get his bat in the lineup, and being a great bat off the bench during the pennant chase. He would also be a great bat to have off the bench if we made the playoffs, as they are hoping/planning for. His bat looks ready this spring though, which is the great news.
• Three Bench Backup Spots - Outfield Possibilities: With DeRosa able to play the entire infield (remember, he has played at 2B, 3B, and SS regularly in the majors, coming up as a SS, and there was initial talk that he would play 1B when he was signed) and the way OFs are hitting, I think that two spots will go to OF (Fred Lewis and Andre Torres). Bowker, despite his homer yesterday, has not been hitting that well plus has been striking out a lot; with an option still, he's slated for AAA, I think, and not the bench, so that he can play regularly, show that 2009 was not a fluke, and be ready to come up in case of injury or Schierholtz not performing. Velez is doing well, but not as well as Torres or Lewis, and he still has an option, so I also think he's slated for AAA so that he can play regularly, show improvement over 2009, and be ready to come up in case of injury or lack of performance from Schierholtz or even Torres or Lewis at some point, if they are not performing. Perhaps even further injuries at 2B for Sanchez. They both need to show that they are not AAAA players like Todd Linden and Lance Niekro. They both needed to hit a lot better in spring to earn a spot on the 25-man to start the season. I thought Torres was gone this season, but he has just been hitting too well to not get a spot. I don't think the Giants are going to trade Lewis, as most people have been speculating, he's been hitting too well to not hold onto and see what happens with Schierholtz in RF, in case DeRosa starts out slow in LF due to the surgery or whatever, say, if any injury happens.
• 25th Man on the Roster: I thought Frandsen was going to get this spot, particularly with Freddie Sanchez now looking to be out for a full month but it looks like Matt Downs is going to take that last spot on the bench with his great hitting, constrasted with Frandsen's very poor hitting. Downs can play 2B and 3B, probably 1B and LF in a pinch, and SS would be covered by Uribe sliding over from 2B or even DeRosa playing a few innings there, as he was a SS when he started out in the majors, and he has played 139 games there, started 79 times, compiling 829.2 innings at SS, roughly 90+ full games. He wasn't the greatest but adequate there, though at 35, probably only good for filler in a long game. Bowker could make a push to get this spot will a spirited run in the last two weeks, but as I noted, I think it would be more prudent to keep his bat ready in AAA to come up and start if necessary, plus let him show that 2009 is the new improved Bowker and not a fluke over the 2008 Bowker. Downs looks like the favorite now but there's still two weeks, plenty of time for someone to surge and take him on.

Giants Thoughts

The roster is still in a state of some flux, though all the major starting positions are pretty much settled, with Schierholtz and Wellemeyer looking like they have grabbed the final spots. Bench spots have been much more in play than I had thought, with great performances from Hinshaw, Pucetas, Lewis, Torres, and Downs.

Todd Wellemeyer has done a lot better than I had thought he would, given his career numbers. Even his good 2008 season was a bit flukey, resulting in a mid-4 FIP, offset by his poor 2009, which also again was a mid-4 FIP (FIP is basically what his ERA should be given his pitching peripherals, BABIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate, HR/flyball). Still, that's plenty good for the 5th starter, most teams end up with guys in the mid-5's and 6's pitching 5th for them. He should win a lot of games for us pitching in the back of the rotation.

The Giants offense looks like it will do OK once we get into the regular season, though that is obviously not set in stone. Rowand looks ready to leadoff again and Huff looks ready to supply the power to drive him in. I think Sandoval will be fine once we reach the regular season, he's been suffering from some balls not falling in as they usually do, but has shown the power that is needed in the 3rd spot. Renteria, as noted, not that far away from getting on base regularly for the guys in the middle.

DeRosa is the big question mark out of them, batting 5th but showing little power thus far in spring. However, he could just be starting out slow due to not being able to get into games until much later. And at least he is hitting well (.300) and getting on base (.364). I'm not too worried about him, I think he's going to be fine once we hit the regular season. Plus, even if he's starts off well, I think Lewis will eventually work his way regularly in starts in LF against RHP, as DeRosa is not the best against them. If he's cold, Lewis could see more starts early on.

Molina is most probably our 6th or 7th hitter, where he should have been hitting all the time he has been with us. He is ideal for that position, don't strike out much, hits for a good average and with some power, which would drive in runs. His inability to take walks don't hurt as much batting 6th (or 7th), as most teams don't expect their bottom order players to score a lot of runs.

Uribe is probably the 6th or 7th hitter while he is starting, depending on matchups and prior history, flip-flopping with Molina. People like Uribe, but his years of poor hitting discourages me from being on his bandwagon. I think a very slow start could push DeRosa to 2B and Lewis to LF, plus get Downs some starts at 2B.

Nate Schierholtz will probably end up 8th, at least initially. Though, since that is a tough position to hit at, they could put him 7th while batting one of the vets (Molina, Uribe) 8th. If he hits like I think he can, I think he can force his way into the top of the order, perhaps 2nd because of his speed, I can even see him batting 3rd, pushing everyone down one, if he is doing well and Huff is struggling in the cleanup spot. If he gets off to a poor start, however, it will be like Lewis all over again in 2009: he'll be benched while the Giants experiment with others to see what happens. However, with only Downs as a player with an option to send down, assuming the bench plays out as I noted above, there should not be a lot of yo-yo-ing in 2010 unless someone without options is traded. But I think he'll be able to hit more than adequately for a bottom-order hitter, the key question is whether he can hit as well as the average RF. He'll have to put into use his off-season instructions on taking pitches and swinging for more power to do that.

And whether that offense will be enough to win with our pitching and fielding is another key question. Lincecum and Cain pitched great last season, and that is not something we can count on for certain, as pitchers' performances are affected greatly by random luck. But Zito and Sanchez showed potential for doing better in 2010 than 2009, and Wellemeyer looks more like his 2008 incarnation than his 2009 this spring, and that would be an improvement over our last starter spot in 2009, occupied by Johnson, Sadowski, Martinez, and Penny. The bullpen lost Howry and Miller but looks stronger with Runzler in there plus maybe Hinshaw and a vet.

And the fielding takes a hit with Huff, but could stay about the same with Schierholtz in RF, gain from DeRosa in LF, and improve from Sandoval's intense practicing at 3B. Rowand also talked about getting himself into shape this off-season (finally, you would think a $60M contract would kick a gamer in the ass to do all he can, NOW) and being ready to play a full season, as he petered out greatly in the second half the two seasons he has been with the Giants. That should help his fielding as well as his hitting. Sanchez, once he is ready to play, should be able to match the defense at 2B, which was part Burriss, Uribe, and Velez, and part him.

And Renteria should see some improvement in this plays at SS now that the huge foreign object is out of his elbow, as that probably affected most of his throws, particularly those to his right where he needs to put more zip on it to get the batter out (the word - and the stats - showed that he had problems with balls to his right). I think overall the Giants should be about the same, down mainly to Ishikawa being replaced by Huff, but with Ishikawa coming in frequently at 1B for late game defense, the fielding defense will not be so down on an overall basis, while getting a big boost from Huff's offense.

Meanwhile, the other NL West Contenders have their own problems that they need to solve if they are to battle for the division title themselves, giving hope to Giants fans that any offensive and defensive problems would not necessarily cost the team a chance to compete:

• D-Rox, who I view as our strongest competitor, because of their pitching and offense, was hoping that Jeff Francis could come in and replace Jason Marquis production, which was a key part of their 2009 success. He has a 6.92 ERA in 4 starts, 13.0 IP, though that's worse than his 5 walks and 9 strikeouts would suggest. Still, that's not good enough production to replace Marquis.
• The D-gers need to replace Lowe's production, and Padilla has been good to great up to now in spring, but was never that great over a full season prior in his career, except for his first full season, back 8 years ago. Even then, he's never struck out so many (high K/9 for LA in 2009) in any season in his career. In addition, Manny stating it is his last year in LA and the divorce between the owner and his wife who was running the team, accused of having an affiar with a D-ger employee, could disrupt their 2010 season. Plus, they still need a 5th starter and picked up Jeff Weaver as a hopeful there (9.00 ERA) and Furcal is still not hitting. Plus, they need to replace Hudson's production at 2B, with Belliard and DeWitt as two unlikely possibilities. Too many question marks in my mind to say for sure that they got the title again.
• The D-backs were hoping that Webb would be back to his old form, and he's having problems still getting healthy. In addition, they traded for Edwin Jackson and he just has not had it this spring, plus need a fifth starter as well. Offensively, they all look as strong as ever.
• The 'Dres I thought had a dark horse chance to do well in 2010 and contend, assuming continued A-Gon brilliance and development among their strong set of prospects, like Blanks, Headley, Venable, Antonelli, Latos, but rumors persist that they are trying to trade A-Gon, and if A-Gon is traded, their pennant chances are a-gone.

So the Giants look like they are going to be able to hold their own this season and be competitive most of the season. Their lineup, based on projections and the lineup calculator, looks like it will be good enough to win 90 games if the pitching and fielding are as good in preventing runs in 2010 as they were in 2009. Right now, I think the Giants can be pretty close to what they did last season in that department, and therefore be somewhere in the neighborhood of 90 wins (which they were in 2009 with 88) for 2010. That's not going to win a pennant for sure, but at least we'll be competitive.

I also think that we will get boosts later in the season from Posey and Bumgarner, and perhaps Neal or Sosa. They could provide the edge we need to push it to the top this season.

Go Giants!

Giants Added 4 to 40 Man Roster; Second-Tier FA; Sign Cain to Extension

Catching up with some news, the Giants recently added four prospects to their 40 man roster. This was reported at their website by Haft, Baggarly, and Schulman. Here they are in order of where I think they rank in terms of contributing eventually (and also probably in order of contributing) to the Giants:

Kevin Pucetas

He had been winning big in the minors until his 2009 big bump of a season, once winning the title of "Most Spectacular Pitcher of the Year" for having the lowest ERA in all of the minors. Baggarly notes that he is the only guy of these who won't appear in his top 30 prospect list for Baseball America because of how poorly he did in 2009. He has never had the "stuff" that pitchers have/need to dominate in the majors. But as Baggarly notes, he is "a strike thrower and he competes well in all aspects ... The Giants always seem to have an affinity for those types of guys."

Not everything was bad. He made a big jump from Advanced A to AAA last season and was only 24 last season, so a bump would be expected. Plus his BABIP was high (.315) so there was some bad luck involved. In particular, the bad luck was in his home park at Fresno. His FIP MLE overall was a 5.01, which is OK for a 5th starter, but his FIP MLE for the road was 4.47, which would put him in middle rotation talent. So I don't see why he was left off the 30 man for the Giants next season, are there really that many better prospects?

Unless the Giants re-sign Penny (right now, unlikely, but if he's not signed by EOY, he might just do it to tweak the D-ger's noses), #5 starter will be filled internally by either Joe Martinez or Kevin Pucetas. He had done very well before, so I think that he should be able to hold down the #5 starter job, if not here, somewhere, and maybe be one of those guys like Brett Tomko or Sidney Ponson who drifts from team to team. At only age 25 plus already one AAA season under his wing, he probably only needs an opportunity on someone's rotation to get to stick around the majors for a few years under cheap team control, then if he can

Brett Pill

Had not done that much with the Giants prior to this season. Like Sandoval and Bowker before him, had a breakout year in AA Connecticut, but really, .830 OPS in AA is not all that impressive. His 20 HR was, as that was double his high before, so at age 24 his power finally kicked in. He also had an odd split in Dodd Stadium, hitting better at home - perhaps they finally figured out how to fix up the park so that it would be more of a hitter's park, because he's another guy who did well there but not on the road in the past two seasons.

In any case, his hitting was not all that impressive, .300/.352/.478/.830 with 20 HR is very nice, but at AA, the MLE for that is only .252/.292/.400/.692 with 18 HR. That's a nice bench player who can start in a pinch with power. His strikeout rate improved slightly to be slightly better than what you want to look for (which is 15%; he had 13.7%), but he's always been on the edge in that way during his minor league career, just slightly above. His walk rate is about what it has always been. And his BABIP was right in range, so this was a season unaffected by luck in that matter.

Why he's on the Top 30 list for BA but not Pucetas, I'm not sure, other than the surge in power plus consistent discipline at the place. At 24 in AA, he's a bit old in the league for a legitimately good prospect, but OK for someone on the fringes of making the MLB roster. I would want to see how Pill does in AAA before I would put him above Pucetas, and he would need to replicate his good strikeout rate and HR power, plus decent ability to get on base. At 25 next year, it is pretty much do or die for his prospect status.

Francisco Peguero

If his eligibility wasn't over, he probably wouldn't be on the 40 man roster but would be close to making it anyhow by next year. He had a bad start with Augusta, so, whether by injury or management move (could have been injured or maybe he got put into instructional league), he ended up a step back at Salem-Keizer in June, where he finally got hot in July, whereupon he got returned back to Augusta for the rest of the season, where he hit well in July and August, then after a cold Sept there, moved to San Jose where he hit well there. Baseball America ranked him as the Northwest League's 8th best prospect for 2009.

He improved greatly on his discipline at the plate in 2009, striking out much, much less, and getting it below the 15% threshold. But he wasn't that great in August even though he's right in the mass age range for the league, and his BABIP was extremely high in 2009, though it has been for the past two years, so perhaps his speed accounts for a large amount of that. Even his great San Jose stats MLE is only .303/.361/.333/.694.

That with his speed would make him a good CF candidate, but he is going to have to prove it at every level, and he still has Advanced A, AA, and AAA to conquer before reaching the majors. If each takes a year, that would make him 25 when he reaches the majors. So maybe he makes the majors and right now he's looking like a utility guy, unless he starts hitting for more power plus continue his good discipline and speed. Could be a leadoff guy with defense in CF if he can continue to develop. Again, not sure why him and not Pucetas.

Darren Ford

He is the guy we got for Ray Durham in trade. He's been in Advanced A for the past 3 seasons, basically, so it is about time he figured out the level and league. At 23 for 2009, he's old for the league, so we don't know if his improvement to .294/.382/.451/.833 is because of actual improvement or just because he's now much more experienced than much of the league. Part of it was because he hit 9 HR and another part was because he was able to reduce the number of strikeouts, though it is still too high. However, his BABIP was horribly elevated in 2009 compared to his recent MiLB career, so he would need to keep that up in order to be OK in the majors with that OPS, and a .381 BABIP is not really sustainable except by players like Ichiro.

He is a speed burner (one of the fastest in the minors) and very good defensively in CF, so if he could only figure out how to get on base and steal a lot of bases without many CS, he could have a long MLB career as a utility guy. But he'll be 24 in AA next season, and if he only takes one season, 25 in AAA in 2011, putting him at 26 for the majors in 2012. And it took him two years to figure out Advanced A.

The good news is that he hit .310/.382/.514/.896 on the road for San Jose (their park is a pitcher's park relative to the rest of the Cal League), so he did OK in that way. But the MLE for his away numbers are still only .226/.273/.353/.626, which puts him on the Calvin Murray and Jason Ellison career path. Again, not sure why him over Pucetas.

Second Tier Free Agent Talent

Sabean recently noted in a conference call (partial account by Haft and Schulman; oddly, no full account that I can find) that there is a second tier of free agents - below Holliday and Bay - that would appeal to the Giants. That includes Boras' clients, as it was reported that Sabean acknowledged that the club has contacted Boras about some of his clients. "We know who is available," Sabean said. He also noted that Boras clients are often prolonged negotiations.

This was mentioned after Tim Lincecum's conference call regarding his Cy Young award. Sabean said that he refuses to be a "stalking horse" for any player who is just using the Giants to get more money elsewhere. This is probably a result of the Soriano and Lee snubs before, particularly Lee, whom the Giants were willing to go higher, but Lee told them not to bother, as he apparently got what he wanted from the Astros. Sabean said he doubts Holliday and Bay will have genuine interest because the Yankees, Red Sox, and other bigger-market teams would be pursuing them.

Giants Thoughts

There are some potential for all these players, so I can see why they were protected before the upcoming Rule V draft. However, the Giants only have one spot remaining on the 40 man and the presumption is the Giants were going to sign at least a backup catcher, which would take the last spot. Thus, if the Giants decide to sign another starter (like Penny) or find the second tier free agent hitter that Sabean said recently he would pursue, some of these players could likely be dropped off the roster and designated for assignment.

First would be Ford, I think. I think Eli Whiteside is probably next after Ford, once a backup catcher is signed. Alex Hinshaw is probably on the bubble as well, with the emergence of Dan Runzler. Brian Bocock has to be on the bubble as well, I was surprised others (like Sadowski) were dropped before him.

It is also possible that someone might get traded, but that's hard to predict, it would depend on the other team thinking that our guy is worth giving up one of their prospects for. But I would think that Merkin Valdez could be a possibility, as well as Garko or Ishikawa, depending on the circumstances.

Second Tier Not Really News

I think that it was pretty clear that the Giants were probably not going to sign either of the top two hitters, Holliday and Bay. Holliday has openly said that he hates hitting here. And Bay is being strongly courted by the Red Sox, so I have to assume that they have the money land him if they want him.

Bay is a possibility if other teams are not interested in matching his price (whatever that is) and it happens to fit the Giants valuation. Not sure what the threshold is for the Giants, but I wouldn't pay more than $15M per year for Bay and the guess I've seen right now is that he would get 4 years at $15M per year. I think I would rather pass and let Bowker and Schierholtz have the opportunity to start if it goes above that.

In addition, there are probably second tier outfielders who will be available on the cheap in January. Particularly if there are any surprise non-tenders when it comes time to offer arbitration, the Giants will probably be perusing that list pretty carefully.

I still like Chone Figgins, but he probably won't be a target for the Giants until the Angels decide to not tender arbitration to him as he is a Type A free agent, and thus not cost the Giants their first round pick. I don't see the Angels offering him arbitration, as they might want to play Brandon Wood or Sean Rodriguez at 3B, and Maicer Izturis is another backup option if neither claims the position.

Still, with a billionaire owner (we need such a guy owning the Giants and there are plenty of them in the SF Bay Area), he can afford to eat contracts easily (like Matthews Jr's) and so they might just play chicken and offer him arbitration. At only $5.8M last season, he probably would only get $8-9M tops in arbitration, which the Angels might be willing to risk.

With his great OBP and SB speed, he would be great as our leadoff hitter. The only problem is that he played well at 3B last season, so his acquisition could push Sandoval to 1B and Garko and Ishikawa off the team. He has played LF before, and that would be ideal for us, but I don't know if he prefers to stay at 3B or not.

Speaking of free agents, Dallas McPherson became a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and was recently signed by the Oakland A's, which has recently become a landing place or waystation for a number of former Giants players, like Rajai Davis and Jerome Williams.

Giants Interest Does Not Equal Enough Interest to Sign

There is going to be a lot of agents talking about the Giants interest in their clients because in this economic climate, they have to broadcast that teams are interested, in order to help create some demand for their client and some sense of scarcity. Simple economics and sales savvy.

Just remember that the Giants contact a lot of free agents at this time, because they might have a cursory interest, but that does not mean that they are interested at any price. They are notorious window shoppers. Remember, the Giants contacted Gary Sheffield's agent once and asked if he would be willing to sign for under $10M, when any fan who follows the Hot Stove could have told the Giants that there was no way he was signing for under $10M with any team, he was going to get more (and he did, I think with Detroit). You don't get if you don't ask, but sometimes you are just insulting or disconnected with reality by giving low-ball offers like that. Players, particularly those with big egos, are going to remember that about you.

Need to Sign Cain to Extension

Also, someone on El Lefty Malo suggested that Cain could be traded because he would be very expensive once he gets past our last contract year, which is 2011, and thus we might not be able to keep Lincecum, Zito, Rowand, and Cain on the same roster, and I would have to agree that is a possibility. So one thing to watch for this off-season is if the Giants are able to sign Cain to a two-year extension at a relatively cheap price, say, 2 years at $18-25M. He probably could get $12-15M right now on the free agent market, and with a bit of inflation, in 2011, that would put him around $15-18M per season.

However, he signed a really cheap contract with the Giants already so he and/or his agents might decide that his next contract needs to be for fair value. And that would probably put us out of his price range given our other contracts at that time. Players do accept lower amounts now for the bird in the hand vs. two in the bush, but hard to judge how much lower.

But Cain appears to love being here, he has planted roots here, marrying someone from the area, buying a home here, and since he had no team that he rooted for when he was young, the Giants are the only team he has ever really felt bonds with. A two year contract for the amount I suggested above ($18-25M) would secure his future, and he would still be only 29 for the next season when he becomes a free agent in 2013 offseason. So it might be possible to get him signed to a good extension.

Else, the Giants would need to strongly consider trading him either 2010 mid-season or the next off-season, as then we would only have one year of him remaining. If a trade is envisioned, then I would want something similar to what the A's got for Haren from the D-backs. I'm not sure who else has a farm system like that to give up for Cain, though. But the Brewers have a lot of hitters and need pitchers. The Rays and Angels also have a lot of young hitters in their farm systems too. And the Angels look like they will be losing Lackey, after having lost Nick Adenhart at the start of the season, and don't have good pitching prospects looking ready for 2010.

And there is the suggestion on ELM that the Giants trade Cain to Detroit for Cabrera and Granderson. Thinking further on that, I noted that we would have to either give up Bumgarner too or accept another bad contract like Dontrelle Willis to do the trade as that commenter suggested (which included us throwing in Rowand, Merkin Valdez, Garko/Ishikawa, Henry Sosa, and Jesus Guzman, if I remember the details right; no kitchen sink :^).

A new thought while writing this that occurred to me is that the Giants could perhaps make it Cain for Cabrera, plus we throw in Valdez, Garko, and Guzman, and they throw back a mid-tier prospect, say, any of the Baseball Prospectus Three-Star prospects. They might also want us to take on Dontrelle Willis's $12M contract as well, but then I think that is where I would draw the line unless they are willing to take on Barry Zito back (but I don't know if he is even tradeable or whether he can block trades to certain teams).

But, personally, I would prefer to keep Cain and sign him to a two year extension. I think our rotation is superior with him in it, but if we don't have him, then it is Lincecum, Zito, Sanchez, Bumgarner, as our main starters, which might be superior in 2011, but questionable for 2010: will Zito continue to do well? Will Sanchez do well over a full season? Would Bumgarner be able to do well his first season, most do not duplicate how well they do in the minors, there is usually at least some period of adjustment. What will we get out of the #5 starter?

Cabrera would be nice, but I think it is more important to keep the rotation as strong as possible right now, as Bumgarner is probably not ready for the majors yet. Trading off starters starting mid-season 2010 is probably OK, as by then we should know how Bumgarner and Wheeler are doing in the minors, and how ready each of them look for the future.

Top 15 Giants Prospects - Baseball Intellect

Baseball Intellect's Alex Eisenberg has filled the void of analyzing prospect mechanics since Carlos Gomez hung up his Bullpen Mechanics and took a scouting job with a major league team and he has done it well. Recently, he published his Giants Top 15 prospects, 1-5 here and 6-15 here.

Giants Top 15 Prospects

1. Madison Bumgarner. Body type is strong, durable, athletic and projectable. His player grade is A- and his fastball was rated 65 now and 70 in future (on scout's 20-80 scale), curveball 45/55, change-up 35/45, Control 50/55, Command 50/60, and Pitchability 45/55. His fastball is electric and he can spot it where he wants. He shows plus-plus velocity at times and he's able to hide the ball well, making it hard for hitters to see it coming out of his hand. "Bottom line... Bumgarner has a chance to be special, especially if he can continue to hone his secondary offerings. Best case outcome - No. 1 starter; More likely outcome - No. 2 starter"
2. Buster Posey. Body type is athletic, especially for a catcher, but also a heavier lower half; he has room to fill out his frame. His player grade is B+ with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 45/55, Speed 40/40, Defense 55/60, Arm 55/55, Instincts 50/60. He "possesses good footwork around the plate and projects to be an at least average defensive catcher with the potential to become plus." "While the power ouput is still in question, Posey should be able to hit 35+ doubles along with around 15-20 homeruns on a regular basis. When you combine this with a solid batting average and the willingness/ability to take a walk, Posey looks like a pretty good offensive player... Posey could move quickly." "Best Case Outcome - Top 5 catcher, potential all-star; More Likely Outcome - Top 12 catcher... he's a very good offensive catcher, but there are still questions for exactly how much power he'll hit for."
3. Tim Alderson. Body type is tall, but coordinated and athletic. His player grade is B+ with his Fastball rated 50/55 (now/future), Curveball 50/60, Change-Up 40/45, Control 50/60, Command 45/55, Pitchability 50/60. "Overall, he's deceptive, hard to pick up, stays closed. This deceptiveness makes his fastball seem much more explosive. ... his stuff isn't overpowering but it plays up because of his command, intellect, and mechanics. Best Case Outcome - No. 2 starter; More Likely Outcome - Strong No. 3 starter."
4. Pablo Sandoval. Not qualified to call a prospect, but include because he's interesting player. Body type is short, but heavy, with little projection. His player grade is B/B+ with his Contact rated 55/55 (now/future), Power 50/50, Discipline 40/45, Speed 40/40, Defense 50/50, Arm 60/60, Instincts 45/50. He really likes Sandoval's swing, leading to a "very nice combination of contact/batting average and power Sandoval's drawbacks is his plate discipline. He's a high contact hitter, but also doesn't walk much and needs to be a little more selective... he does show an ability, however, to adjust to off-speed pitches. ... Best Case Outcome - The potential is there to be a top-5 catcher, but he becomes an average player at first base and a top-12 player at third base. If he were slated to play catcher, I would move his grade to B+; More Likely Outcome - Top-10 catcher, slightly below average first baseman, or average thirdbaseman.
5. Angel Villalona. Body type is big kid, needs to watch his weight, but he's only 17; however, is he that projectable? His player grade is B and his Contact is rated 40/50 (now/future), Power 50/60-65, Discipline 35/45, Speed 40/35, Defense 50/50, Arm 55/55, Instincts 35/45. He was extremely young for his level, so his ordinary numbers aren't too big a deal. Show strong power already but he's still very raw in the aspects of baseball where experience really helps, like his plate discipline, low walks, high strikeouts. His raw power rates as plus to plus-plus, and he shows terrific bat speed, a mechanically sound swing, and the ability to make hard contact. Already physically mature, he is not your typical ultra-talented, projectable athlete displaying his natural ability at a young age; he's already limited to first base. "Best Case Outcome - Middle of the line-up bat; Most Likely Outcome - Average to slightly above average everyday first baseman."
6. Henry Sosa. Body type is lanky, smallish build. Player grade is B/B- with his Fastball rated 55/60 (now/future), Curveball 45/55, Change-Up 35-40/45, Control 40/45, Command 45/55, Pitchability 45/50. Boasts perhaps the second best arm in the entire system, but the biggest question was his control, which he made strides to improve, though another issue is his ability to get deep into games. "Best Case Outcome - No. 3 starter; Most Likely Outcome - Set-up man."
7. Conor Gillaspie. Player grade is B- with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/45-50, Discipline 50/55, Speed 45/45, Defense 40/50, Arm 50/50, Instincts 55/60. Has the potential to hit for a high batting average and already possesses strong plate discipline, but his power is still a question mark and he's below average defensively at third, though that should improve as he gets more experience there given his athleticism and work ethic, as his arm is solid enough. His value would increase if he were moved to second base, and he thinks he can handle the change; however, the Giants have Noonan slotted for 2B. "Best Case Outcome - Average everyday third baseman or above average second baseman; More Likely Outcome - Really good utility player... think about the way Mark DeRosa has been utilized over the course of his career.
8. Nick Noonan. Body type is athletic and projectable. Player grade is B- and his Contact is rated 40/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 35/45, Speed 50/50, Defense 55/55, Arm 45/45, Instincts 50/55. Similar to Gillaspie but more upside in power, younger, and better defense; however, he has very little plate discipline, getting him the lower ranking. Feels he could end up with 15-20 homer power eventually with adjustments. Should be above average defensive player eventually, and could step in at shortstop if necessary. Excellent base runner, with 47 stolen bases in 54 attempts during his career. "Best Case Outcome - Above average everyday second baseman. More Likely Outcome - Average everyday second baseman... his worse case outcome is utility player role"
9. Kevin Pucetas. Body type is big and lacking projection. Player grade is B- and his Fastball is rated 50/50 (now/future), Curveball 45/50, Slider 40/45, Change-Up 55/55, Control 50/55, Command 45/50, Pitchability 55/55. "Pucetas is a four-pitch pitcher and doesn't have spectacular stuff, but it's good enough to eventually get out major leaguers. ... His best pitch is his change-up, which shows good tumbling action and an excellent differentiation between the speed of his fastball... Best Case Outcome - No. 4 starter; More Likely Outcome - Quality middle reliever"
10. Roger Kieschnick. Body type is big, strong, and athletic. Potential 5-tool player, but he's a low contact hitter. "Best Case Outcome - Average right fielder... he's got the tools, but he's a major long shot to hone them all; More Likely Outcome - Fourth outfielder... he's good enough at other things to provide some value to a major league team"
11. Scott Barnes. Most impressive was how dominant he was in his first professional season, despite inconsistent and somewhat stiff mechanics from his draft video. We'll get an idea of whether his performance was for real or just small samples in 2009. Player grade C+
12. Ehire Adrianza. "Here is a sleeper candidate for you...Adrianza is a shortstop with a very strong glove and an athletic, projectable build. The power isn't there yet, but he's shown excellent plate discipline in his young career, displaying both the ability to take a walk and make contact. He has a very short swing, but it's going to make hitting for power, as well as hitting the ball with true authority very difficult. ... He's a long way off, but good defense at shorstop combined with good plate discipline is a solid building block for a player to start from. Grade C
13. Aaron King. "King's mechanics are somewhat unorthodox and there are issues to iron out. ... Problems aside, there is a lot to like: King is young, projectable, athletic, left handed, seems to have an understanding of getting the body going and throwing with intent, and sports a low 90's, sinking fastball with the potential to add more velocity. He's risky, but he's worth taking a shot on. Grade - C
14. Wendell Fairley. "Fairley was mostly a disappointment last season. He showed little pop--just an .076 ISO-power and a .314 BABIP--and he hit the ball on the ground far too often. Fairley does have good tools...he's fast, athletic, has good bat speed,but his tools never really showed up in the actual games. He has to adjust his swing plane/path to have more lift after contact. One positive was he walked quite a bit, so it was somewhat of a mystery as to why he didn't use his speed more. Something to take away from last season: the final month of the season, Fairley walked in 16% of his plate appearances, while striking out in just 12% of his PAs. We'll see if he can carry that success over to next year. Grade - C"
15. Brandown Crawford. This he offered only to subscribers, so I'll include the whole thing. "Crawford looks like an intriguing player. He's a shortstop with some pop and patience. But there are some major red flags. I'm not sure of the exact number, but I don't think the success rate of players with significantly more strikeouts than walks is good, especially when that player has no other plus skill. Crawford struggles to make contact mainly because he struggled to center the ball last year as well as failing to recognize off-speed stuff. He would often get too far out in front. His swing is also a little armsy as he doesn't use his lower as efficiently as he could. Defensively, he lost a little bit of range a year ago, but he has good hands and fields what he gets to. He's not a bad guy to take a chance on because it could be he just had a off year in 2008, but I would say his chance at success is small unless he shows an improved ability to make contact. Grade - C"

I also asked him about Ishikawa, who missed the cut for this because he had too many AB by Alex's standards (100 AB): "I think he's a useful player. Good power, good patience, will strike out, won't hit for a high average...apparently he's good defensively though I haven't seen his defense...I think he's ultimately a platoon guy because he does have a pretty big lefty/righty split (and that is exactly how the Giants used him last year)...his bat isn't good enough to play first base everyday. If I were to rate him, he would be the team's No. 9 prospect and a B- prospect."

Not too bad, gives some hope for the future, though that future looks like a platoon, as most analysis has tagged him as that. But there is some value in that, and perhaps he can be a key trading chip later, or even figure out how to hit LHP.

Good Report on Frandsen Plus Rumors and Speculations

John Sickels, a minor league expert, wrote in his Minor League Ball blog the following about Kevin Frandsen:

Kevin Frandsen, SS, San Francisco Giants: Looks healthy which is the important thing after missing the season due to a torn achilles. Line drive bat, hits to the opposite field, hustles, won't have much home run power. Played shortstop down here and looked fine, can handle second base no problem defensively.

Still, Sickels thinks Kevin is a 2B in full-time play.

Baggarly's Back

Andy Baggarly had a juicy post on Giants rumors and he's not even at the GM meetings.

• The biggest news, as Andy notes:  Giants have interest in Rafael Furcal.  This makes sense, much like how the acquisiton of Rowand made sense:  add another strong vet to the mix.  In Rowand's case, it allowed Schierholtz to gain another year of experience at AAA, and Lewis backed up Roberts really well, with Schierholtz as the second alternative had the need arise.  In this case, this sets up SS, with Frandsen and Burriss fighting for 2B, and if both do well enough, Frandsen slides to 3B, with Sandoval sticking to 1B.  Also, as Baggarly also notes, he would lead off, allowing us to bat Lewis in the middle (though I was envisioning Burriss in the leadoff spot).  Plus we steal him from the D-gers, though they do have Ivan DeJesus and Chin-Lung Hu in the wings (however, DeJesus looks terrible in AFL according to Sickels and Hu didn't do well in majors last year).
  
  And this works even if injury prone Furcal - he's 31 next year and has had two straight injury reduced years, particularly in 2008 - continues to be injury prone, as that would allow Burriss and/or Frandsen time at SS. However, this only really works if it is a two year deal with an option, because we cannot be saddled with a gimpy shortstop for big bucks for a long time.  Particularly not into our prime period of 2010-2015 when we should have our best prospects productive and under our control.   Perhaps the option can be tied to playing time in 2009-10, like Vizquel's was.   He took a shorter deal with LA for more money so perhaps he might be willing to do that again.
  
  If the Giants are already looking this SS route, if Furcal falls through, perhaps they might go after Adam Everett who plays great defense but might give that back offensively. However, that would be an upgrade on last year because the SS position only hit .228/.295/.281/.576 overall. Everett over the past three seasons had OPS of .642, .599, and .601 (career .653, but much done at Houston's hitter's park. Still, he'll be 32 next year and with declines offensively, could continue to decline. Plus, it appears he was injured twice during the season (and missed a lot of time in 2007 as well), so perhaps he's an injury risk today.
  
• Other names include Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, but most probably not happening.
• Scott Eyre was mentioned, but apparently Eyre loves pitching for the Phillies and his home is close to their spring training complex.  It'll probably come to who offers the bigger bucks again, which is how we lost him to Chicago last time.
• Bengie Molina rumors appear to be just that, nothing substantial.   I would note here that I saw a headline that Pudge and Veritek will be hot commodities because of a short supply in the catcher's market, so the teams that lose out on them might decide to be more substantial with their offer for Molina in the future.
• Lastly, Andy speculates that Aaron Rowand could be in the mix in trade talks.  The market for CF is strong as evidenced by the Brewers picking up Mike Cameron's $10M option, and the Yankees and ChiSox are shopping for CF (Rowand being a former ChiSox, and they pursued him strongly before the Giants got him).  According to scouts that Baggarly spoke with, Rowand's defense has fallen so much that Randy Winn was actually better (and most reports I've heard is that he's poor in CF).    Still, any trade would have to have a substantial return and the Giants would need to get another righty hitter to balance things out, particularly if Schierholtz is the new RF.  Plus, he has limited trade protection.
• Oh, and Baggarly guesses that it's 75-25 that Cain remains a Giant.  I would think it would have to be greater than that, because I don't think any team is going to be willing to shell out that much, I would expect to get much more than what the D-backs got for Haren, and only the Rays, I think, would be in a good enough position to trade off that many young good players for a Cain - yet they don't really need a Cain, they have Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and soon Price.  

Shea Had Something to Say Too

John Shea had a column on the Giants too:

• Asked if Cain is untouchable, Sabean said, "Yes.  Clubs know that.  That hasn't necessarily discouraged clubs from inquiring or making suggestions of offers.  But we don't see anything out there that gives us a net gain by losing him."
• So to get offensive help, he will try other ways, including free agency and trades for pitchers not named Cain, Lincecum, or Wilson.  "We have a list of very definitive untouchables for various reasons.  After that, if someone wants to get creative and we could find a way to do something, even if it takes more than one prospect, we're willing to do it."
• Sabean will be attending the Giants' ownership group meeting in SF tonight.
• Sabean has been told to conduct business as usual, despite the tumbling economy, with the priority of adding a couple of hitters - a corner infielder and middle infielder to complement Sandoval and Burriss in the infield and of rebuilding the bullpen around Wilson.
• Sabean noted, "You never know if someone might be interested.  Having said that, we know what the competition's going to be.  Make no mistake.  It's a short list of quote, premium difference-makers.  Very short."
• Also reports that Furcal's group "indicated the Giants are interested in the shortstop as a leadoff hitter." 
• Basically Burriss will play either 2B or SS and Sandoval wil play either 1B or 3B.  
• Sabean has not met many agents but is expected to.  He was seen speaking to Craig Landis (former Giants prospect, FYI) who represents Bobby Howry (also a former Giants prospect).   Sabean appears confident he can redo his bullpen through free agency.
• He also met with the agent company representing Dunn, Burrell, Hudseon, and CC Sabathia (and here it is affirmed that the Giants are not in the market for front-line starting pitchers).  
• Sabean also noted that Frandsen has a shot at winning 2B starting job.  He's currently playing SS because Burriss's knee is banged up.
• Also, they are still hopeful that Lowry will be in the Opening Day rotation (imagine how good we would have been in 2008 with a healthy Lowry manning a rotation spot instead of Correia/Misch/etc.  That could have been at least a 10 game swing as those pitchers went a combined 3-13 in 29 starts;  Lowry going 8-8 instead would but the Giants at 77-85, only 8 games under .500 vs. 18 games under .500).  
• In addition, Kevin Pucetas could be in competition for the final rotation spot as well, which is surprising but a good surprise.  But still surprising given the word after the season that the team would not rush players as they had in 2008, as Pucetas was only in Advanced A San Jose and, frankly, Tim Alderson outpitched him there.   However, Kevin will be 24 next year and Alderson only 20, so with Bumgarner and Alderson probably only a season or two away from being in the majors, perhaps the Giants felt like they should take a good look at Pucetas now.

Giants Thoughts

I mainly looked here at what the Giants might do commented on that and tried not to put as much of my opinion into what I would do as I am posting tomorrowing a discussion of various free agents and my thoughts on whether we should pursue them or not.  Here, I am mainly an observer who gives opinion on what may or may not be happening.

I guess the main news is that Burriss and Sandoval pretty much owns two spots in the infield but which two depends on who the Giants acquired during the off-season.  And the threshold is high, the Giants are only looking at "premium difference makers".    Plus, as noted before, the Giants are looking to boost the bullpen.  And it appears that the Giants are not pursuing any outfielders, leaving a number of premium difference makers like Manny not part of the mix in the Giants plans. 

Looks like they will pursue Furcal, though how seriously, I don't know, as they shied away from Vlad Guerrero reportedly because of his bad back (though according to a well-respected Bay Area media member, Ted Robinson, a significant factor was because Vlad didn't like Felipe Alou).  He'll be OK with a short contract but not a long one.

And apparently they are eyeing Juan Uribe as a possible replacement for Rich Aurilia, depending on how cheaply they can get him from the ChiSox (which I would put in the category of dumpster-diving; not that there's anything wrong with that).   I am OK with that if he's cheap enough.  It'll be fun for the crowd to yell "Ooo-Ree-Bay" again.  

Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is pretty much dismissed in the above articles, but he used to play 1B like Dunn as well.  However, I doubt that his hometime discount will amount to enough for the Giants to sign him and his defense stinks, and Sabean loves good defensive players.   

Still, you never know what a player might do, because if the Giants are interested in Furcal, they are obviously entertaining thoughts of shelling out another $12-13+ M contract and maybe Burrell doesn't need the biggest contract and accepts one that is good enough, like Carlos Lee did with Houston.  Burrell is a South Bay native and I believe was a Giants fan growing up.  In addition, because his defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Giants might not want to have two subpar defensive player in Burrell and Sandoval at the corner infield spots.  We will see.

I don't think that the Giants will want to pursue Dunn.  I think there is enough interest on the part of other teams to put his price out of range of the Giants.  And he's not going to give any hometown discount to the Giants.

Same thinking on Mark Teixiera.  As much as he fits the Giants ideal 1B - hitter plus great defensively - he is with Boras and he will want one of the largest contracts in history.  I don't think the Giants want to go in that direction.

I am hoping the Giants are limiting contracts to the 2 years plus 3rd year option or at most a 3 years plus 4th year option variety so that the contracts are ending right around when we need to sign Cain and Lincecum to long term deals.  That would make it easier to trade them too.

I'm a bit afraid that the media is mentioning Bumgarner and Alderson in the trade talks and hope that is because Sabean did not explicitly name them and thus the writers are just taking an analytical leap there.  Sabean, as I noted, like to maintain a list put together by our coaches and scouts on, basically, who our keepers are and who we are willing to give up.  I assume both are on the keeper list.

Looks like the #5 spot will be competed for by Lowry, Pucetas, and probably Misch as well, and possibly Correia should he be re-signed (I'm betting that he's going to another team like the Padres instead, though).  

The outfield appear to be set with Lewis, Rowand, and Winn, with the outside possibility that the Giants will float Rowand's name to see what offers he gets.  As I noted before, I hope they keep him, I think he'll be better in 2009 and the team will be sorry to get rid of him if they do.

Given the hot market for catchers in free agency, I think some teams might decide that it would be better to have Bengie Molina than overpay for the two stars on the market, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Veritek, or, alternatively, he will look better when the two sign with other teams and the remaining bidders are left with no catcher.   However, I think it would take a pretty good offer to get the Giants to trade Molina, so I think he'll be with the team to start the season but could be gone by mid-season when the inevitable injury hits a contending team's catching and they need a catcher and thus might overbid for him.  Plus the Giants by that point should be back far enough that they could give up without shame and start building for the future again at mid-season.  

Lastly, Cain's not going anywhere because it is going to take a huge overbid to get him away from the Giants and that's been true for at least 3 years now, and if a team hasn't been willing to do that before, they are probably not willing to do it today, as he's pitching much as he has, at least at the surface. 

However, as I noted in another post, Cain greatly improved in 2008 because he actually pitched well on the road, whereas previously he only pitched well in SF and poorly on the road.  He should be ready to take off in terms of production as a starting pitcher in 2009, I would bet.