Your 2014 Giants: Opening Two 40-man Roster Spots

In order to open a spot for Mike Morse, the Giants end up possibly losing two players.  As reported by the usual suspects, the Giants worked on a deal to sell Brett Pill to a Korean team, but when the papers went through league official channels and Morse needed to be added, the Giants DFAed Eric Surkamp to put Morse on.  Pill's sale - pending his negotiating a salary with the new club, apparently the expectation is that he'll get $1M or so, so the talk is that if this falls through, there are other Korean and Japanese clubs interested - will then open up a spot on the 40-man,  and that appears to have happened.

ogc thoughts

It is a bit of a risk to expose Surkamp this way, but, as reported by one writer, odds are that other teams are at their 40-man max like the Giants and won't claim him.  I would say that this is due to the Rule 5 Draft pushing teams to roster players they don't want to lose.  Still, if some team likes Surkamp more than one of their 40, they will claim him.

If unclaimed, it is reported that since this is his first one, the Giants can re-assign him to Fresno and hold him there.   Should he be placed on the 40 again and DFAed again, then should he be unclaimed again, he could decline assignment and declare himself a free agent.

I like what Surkamp did previously and what he has done in his recovery from his TJS, but if we lose him, se la vie.  I have reached the point that I trust the Giants brain trust to make the call on a player and what they think is right.

Sabean and gang has been extraordinarily good at not missing much when trading away players or just plain letting them go, and especially at keeping around the interesting ones who might be good ones, like Cain, Lincecum, Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner, Belt and Crawford.  Who have gotten away?  Foulke, Howry, Liriano but he caused the Twins to waste Mauer's and Morneau's peak seasons, maybe Villanueva and Correia, and Wheeler is a ticking time bomb.  That's minor compared to what we have gotten in trade:  Schmidt, Snow, Burke, Livan, Nen, Winn, Pence, Scutaro, among others.

If Surkamp moves on and prove the Giants wrong, that's what happens with calculated risks, sometimes they backfire.  Fans get mad at mistakes, but I feel that any GM who does not skate on the edge isn't doing everything he can to get us to the promised land ... again, for the third time, one must also remember.

Fans should want their GM to take some risks, to push the envelope some, and pick up some big gains in the process.  Like, though they had a full rotation already, had Tanaka been available, maybe they go ahead and bid for him and maybe win him, then figure out what to do with six starters (apparently Tanaka's team isn't happy that the new posting system limits them to $20M posting fee, and thus are keeping him for one more season - they control him for two more - for $8M and probably will post him next off-season; which is perfect for us, as we'll have a better idea of where Lincecum, Hudson, and Vogelsong are with their major league careers by next off-season, and perhaps be very interested in entering the contest for his services).

But I think I can say pretty confidently that should we lose him, he won't go on and be a Johan Santana who moves on to become an ace.  That rarely happens period, and hasn't happened to the Giants so far, though Liriano came close and Wheeler is still out there.  And his stats, while nice in the minors, wasn't overwhelming either, like Lincecum's or Bumgarner's were.   But you never know, hence the term "calculated risk".  It is unlikely he comes back to hurt us, but that risk is there.

Meanwhile, it looks like Pill is signing with a Korean team and that will open up one 40-man roster spot for the Giants.  Now, if another team comes into the situation where they need to DFA someone they otherwise might have kept, that is, take their calculated risk, the Giants are in position now to grab a flier, like they did with Rosario last season.  He did OK but not that great, and while he'll be competing for a spot, I don't see him winning a spot, not with Hembree and Machi around.  But that's baseball too, that's why you play the games, because you never know.

In other news, the Giants appeared to have added a number of players, as reported by Pavlovic:

• First, the Giants (I read this somewhere else previously) signed former A's relief pitcher, Andrew Carignan, whose stats looked nice.  Could be a nice reclamation project, not sure why the A's let him go, maybe he could be another Casilla for us.
• Also, BA announced the Giants signed Adam Refer and Casey Weathers.   The Giants rep for being Pitcher Whisperers appears to be still going strong, the former did well with flaws (walks) and the latter was a high draft pick who has struggled (like Blanco and Arias, who were top prospects once), and the Giants picked up both.
• And a Giants minor leaguer playing in winter league tweeted that a teammate, Mario Lisson, signed with the team.  He played a number of positions, but apparently 3B is his regular position.

Carignan appears to be another Hunter Strickland find.  He was out for all of 2013, for TJS, and just like Hunter, picked him up the season he missed the full season recovering from that surgery.  The twist here is that he also had shoulder surgery as well, that is why he was out for all of 2013, even though he was TJS operated in mid-2012, like Surkamp was.  But you look at his stats, and if he is anywhere near what he was doing before in AAA, he could be a good reliever at the major league level. And the Giants reviewed all of his medical files and still signed him.  So good luck to him.  

2013 Giants: July PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of July 2013, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2013 Giants: Pre-Fanfest News

News from Chron and Merc.

Posey Extension Openness

Biggest news for me is that the Giants and Posey stated publicly that they are open to discussing a long-term contract this spring.  Of course, that don't mean that they will come to an agreement, but it is good that it is at least out in public, the Giants generally don't talk about such stuff unless they are serious about getting it done (like with all of Cain's extensions, Lowry's, Sandoval's, Bumgarner's).

Posey Handling Affects Belt

Meanwhile, the Giants plan to keep on keeping on:  their 2012 handling of Posey will continue into 2013.  He will continue to see a lot of time at 1B, and given how well Belt played last season, the Giants plan on moving him to LF a lot of those times if he continues to earn it.  So Blanco should not get too comfortable starting out there in LF.

I still think the Giants should just make Belt the LF, so that he gets acclimated to playing there full-time, and sign someone who can play 1B well and hit well enough to play there most games.  I always thought Ishikawa would be perfect for that, but there must be other lefties who play defense well at 1B while hitting OK.  Besides, we know that either Sandoval or Posey will end up starting at 1B some day, so Belt's hold on the position is tentative at best, anyway, in the long run.

No Extension for Lincecum

I was hoping maybe for something, but this made the most sense.  Sabean does not envision a contract extension for The Kid (see his new look? check this link) before the season ends.  Lincecum is in poor negotiating position due to his poor 2012 and thus his side will not be as interested in talking unless you are ignoring his 2012 and acting like it never happened.  The Giants, meanwhile, don't want to give him a big contract if 2012 is a precursor to Tim's future performances, as his seasonal performances have been in a downtrend.  But if he has a good season, and he needed to get into great shape this off-season to do that, I think, the Giants probably would kick the tires with him at the end of the season, in order to try to sign him during the period they have exclusivity to talk with him.

Given how he was about money before, though, I expect him to test the free agent waters and get $25M+ per season from some team for 4-5 years, I can't see any team giving him that big a contract to his age 35 (which a 6 year contract would do).  I don't see the Giants doing that.  But I hope they offer him a big short term deal, he claims to like short term deals more, around $27M for 2 years plus an option (let's say $26M for 2014 and $27M for 2015), see if we can entice him to stay that way.

Unfortunately Pablo Needs to Slim Down

This is such an old story.  Sounds like they are playing nice in the press and saying that they think that he can slim down in time for the regular season.  I'm just glad he has no more hamate bones to break, though I'm no Doctor, is there another bone in the hand that can break from swinging a bat?

Romo IS the Closer... Unless He's Not

Bochy made it clear that Romo will be the closer in name and function during the 2013 season, this is his position as he earned it with his performance down the stretch and in the playoffs.  There will be no closer by committee, which his new contract paid him like.

That said, the Giants will handle him with care because he has had physical issues previously in his career, plus the extra throwing he did in the playoffs.  On top of that, he's going to throw in the WBC as well, away from the Giants coaches and thus could be handled in a way the Giants would not appreciate.  So if you have an extra spot on your fantasy pitching staff in 2013, you might want to grab Affeldt or Casilla to get the occasional extra save, particularly if you have Romo on your team.

Bumgarner Figures It Out

Madison had late season struggles (much like Lincecum) but whereas Tim's problem was with his conditioning (I really hope he fixed that this off-season, why didn't the writers ask him that?), Bumgarner said his was due to fatigue that was due to poor mechanics.  He worked on his mechanics over the winter and feels that he did all he could to fix things.

He talked about how much he learned about his mechanics over the past few years early last season.  He noted that he just threw when he first became a pro, and had very little idea on why and when he was successful.  He has learned since turning pro when he is throwing right and when he is not, and this interview suggests that he knows himself very well now, and thus he pronounced himself fixed for 2013.  We will see.

Zito Wants to End his Career With Giants

Wow, given how poorly he's been treated here by fans, that's a shocker.  But he does love working in the Bay Area, it seems, and I think he recently moved up here, with his new wife, if I recall right.  If he gives us a great deal to make up for his current contract, I would be open to it (say $3-5M per season for 5 years?).   Otherwise, I think our young guys coming up should be ready enough by 2015 to take over for Zito in the rotation, unless he wants to turn to relieving in the bullpen.

Theriot Turns the Turnstile

Looks like he won't be back.  He wants more playing time than he can expect to get here in SF.  The Giants spoke to him at the Winter Meeting and never heard back from him.  Honestly, I would not mind this as it leaves an opening for Nick Noonan to maybe make the team sometime during the season and probably places an Asian on the team again (Japan League vet Tanaka is in camp battling for MI position; he said he wants to start eventually, but did he know about Scutaro's contract?).  Probably Arias and Tanaka are the two MI to begin the season, but Scutaro is old and Holliday is still playing for the Cards, so you never know what happens to the 2B.

Surkamp on Track

LHP Eric Surkamp had TJS last July and hopes to return this July.  He's throwing at 90 feet, so I assume that is good since the mound is 60 feet 6 inches from home plate (did you know that the reason for this distance is that in the original schematics, 0 inches was written in, but I guess he curled it and the guy laying out the field read it as 6 inches.  FACT!).

TJS today is so routine and many players return to not only throw as well as before, but some could throw even harder.  But it is no sure thing so I'll keep my fingers crossed for Eric, he seems like a nice guy from the interviews I've read.  Some are OK after a year, but some require two years to fully recover.  Since he did not rely on his velocity before, I would guess that he can return sooner than later in terms of matching prior performance.

Brett's Earned It

Sabean on right-hander Brett Bochy, who will be in camp: “He’s earned it. He had a real nice season going last year until fatigue set in. We’ll have to watch him in the beginning. All these relievers, whether a prospect or somebody trying to make the team, half the bullpen is pitching in the WBC so they’re going to get a chance to be out there.”  Nice of Sabes to praise his buddy Bruce's little boy!  :^)

Spring Training Next Week

Go Giants!!!  Defend your World Championship!!!

Risk Mitigation: Giants Style

There is a good quote of Bobby Evans by Chris Haft on mlb.com/sfgiants.com:

 "The work's never done. There are too many ways to try to find ways to protect your team over a long season." -- Evans

ogc thoughts

That has been one of the things I've been harping on the past few years about Sabean and the Giants, about how they practice risk mitigation.  In Sabean's interviews, you would hear the terms "flexibility" or "versatility" but Evans' quote comes closest to what I've been saying, about finding "ways to protect your team over a long season."  That is risk mitigation.

The signings of Uribe and DeRosa and, heck, back to the trade for Winn, represents the first strong signs of doing that, during that period.  After all the issues with Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, the Giants have focused more of their free agent signings on the lower tiers on risk mitigation, that is, the flexibility to not have a season go to pot from a starter going down.

Of course, there is really nothing you can do if one of your star hitters like Posey or Sandoval, go down.  But for the rest of the team, if you have a good infield utility player and one good outfield utility player, your team can stay afloat in the pennant race should somebody either go down or just is not performing on the field, like most teams run into with prospects.

DeRosa was the ultimate version of that, but I'll start with Winn first since he was one of those first flexible players.  He was and is a tweener, not really good enough defensively in CF but not really good enough offensively on the corners, but basically an average player no matter which OF position you put him at.  So, depending on who is hitting and who is not hitting or not available, Winn was able to play all three OF positions adequately to good, as well as hit adequately.  Roberts was a little like that too, only he was never healthy long enough to do that job for us.

DeRosa was never healthy enough, but he was the ultimate in utility when we got him.  He was really a platoon hitter, killed LHP, but did OK vs. RHP, good enough to play almost regularly, nearly 150 games per season.  However, he was great defensively at many positions, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and could play SS in a pinch (started out as a pro there) and could play 1B probably OK as well.  He would have been great for us if he had only gone to the expert to get his wrist fixed instead of being lazy and going to the local doctor, who screwed it up.

Last season, Theriot and Arias helped keep things on an even keel while Franchez was out and Sandoval was DLed, while Blanco did likewise in the OF, doing OK enough while starting.  On the previous World Champion team, Uribe and Torres did it for the Giants, even Renteria too, though he was originally hired to be the starting SS but was just injured all the time.

They did the same in the bullpen too.  Many Giants fans groaned over the signing of both Lopez and Affedlt to large (for bullpen) contracts prior to the 2012 season.  But they proved to be good backup once Wilson came up lame.  I didn't see any of these Naysayers apologizing when Affeldt flew through the 2012 playoffs with 10.1 IP, giving only 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 and allowing zero runs.  Lopez wasn't used as much, but he was helpful too, 3.0 IP, giving up 0 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4 and allowing no runs too.  Given that he only pitched in the two key series against Cincinnati and St. Louis (wasn't used in World Series), where a run could have tipped the series to the other side, that was critical pitching.  He helped win two of the games in the Reds series, and three of the games in the St. Louis series.

And both served as closers during the regular season as well.  In fact, who didn't serve?  Six different players recorded saves in 2012:  Casilla (25), Romo (14), Lopez (7), Affeldt (3), even Hensley (3), plus Wilson (1).    Pitchers were swapping in and out, pitching setup, pitching closer.  Also the middle relievers got to pitch setup as well.

And who is the ace of the rotation?  The season started out with Lincecum taking the pole position.  Cain got the home opener.  Bumgarner ended up opening the second half of the season after the All-Star game.   Cain got the first game of the NLDS.  Bumgarner got the first game of the NLCS.  And Zito got the World Series first start.  And while Vogelsong didn't get one of these ace first starts, he pitched like the ace of the playoffs, coming in and shutting down the opposition when the Giants were at the brink of losing.  He had only a 1.09 ERA in 4 starts, 24.2 IP, with 16 hits and 10 walks, striking out 21 and allowing only 3 runs.

And don't forget, Vogelsong was the guy who came up in 2011 and not only held the fort in Zito's absence, but proved to be ace-like in performance.  They also had Petit in 2012 and Hacker in 2010 and 2011 did well for us in AAA.  He just resigned with us, at age 30.  The Giants add these guys to hang around in the minors, just in case they were needed.

Blanco, Arias, Loux, Machi, Petit and Vogelsong started the season off in AAA, waiting for the call to the major leagues, insurance players that the Giants stashed in AAA, just in case a starter goes down.  That is risk mitigation.  And where would we have been if we did not have Theriot, who hit very well after returning from the DL, around .340 OBP, in the two spot, until Scutaro came over, capable of playing 2B and SS, and manning 3B until Sandoval returned, then took over the starting 2B spot and never let go.

Risk mitigation, as the Giants and Sabean has done it, is by having versatile utility players who were comfortable serving many different roles on the team, as the need arose.  Need a starting 2B?  Bam!  Theriot slotted in, and did well there until Scutaro was acquired and held the job.  Need a starting 3B?  Bam!  Arias started there, then Scutaro later.  Need a closer?  Bam!  Casilla, then closer by committee (Romo, Lopez, Affeldt), then Romo in the playoffs.  The Giants have been playing the risk mitigation game well over the past four seasons.

2013 Giants Risk Mitigation

Bringing back the whole team, also, the same players look to fill the risk mitigation roles.  Blanco looks like the LF right now, but should a Huff-like deal open up in LF just before spring training starts, don't be surprised if the Giants jump on a nice RH bat to platoon with Blanco or even start in LF.  And Torres is currently on the market.  Francisco Peguero also looks like he could fill the Blanco role in 2013, he plays all three OF positions, looks like he can hit anywhere (like Pablo), has great speed and defense, and even has a RH bat.

The scuttlebutt is that Ryan Theriot is interested in returning and the Giants are interested in him returning as well.  Meanwhile, we still have Joaquin Arias sitting around, ready to fill in, and Nick Noonan has been prepared the last few years for such a role, having started at both 2B and SS in his climb up the farm system.  He also played some 3B as well and probably could handle 1B in a pinch if necessary.

Of course, the bullpen is pretty set, with Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, Kontos, and Mijares.  We have the same closer by committee set up for 2013, as the Giants are said to be looking to manage Romo's arm to survive the season and be ready for the playoffs.  The key here was the signing of Affeldt to another contract.

The Giants generally likes to let one position be open for competition, so that 7th spot could be where the compete is in 2013, though rumors has it that they were in on Grilli until he chose to return to the Pirates for two years, since nobody would go three years on him.  He has had a Vogelsong-like resurrection, though he was never as buried or unused as Vogie.  Still, if they were looking hard at Grilli, they might still pick up someone along the way and make Mijares' position the competition spot.  Heath Hembree looks like he will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, and as our future closer du jour, if he should make the team, he could be seeing duty from the middle to set-up to closing, depending on how well he does.

And AAA will be full of potential starter replacements.  Hacker has signed to return.  In addition, Eric Surkamp should be healthy and starting in AAA.  In addition, both Chris Heston and Mike Kickham look like they earned a promotion to AAA with their great pitching in AA in 2012.  So there is a whole rotation full of starters who could get the call.  And I'm not even sure whether Petit might return, he was good last season too.  And don't forget, they could also come up as relievers too.

2011 Giants: August PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of August 2011, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this, which I've provided a link to). Plus, I think it has a lot to offer for understanding our pitching and how that translate into competitive advantage for the Giants.  Regular readers can skip to the next orange titled section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Click on title to get full post

Your 2011 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

And, frankly, most people who do these sort of stuff focus a significant amount of their ranking on whether a player is able to make the majors that season or not.  So, to be a little different, I try to focus more on the future potential rather than closeness to the majors, partly because that is the fun of prospect watching, part because I don't observe any of the prospects on the field, as others do.

What I do provide is my thoughts and analysis after reading through various available sources of information regarding the Giants prospects, including all the lists out there (which was captured quite nicely by Crazy Crabbers here).  And, as noted, I lean more towards potential than closeness to the majors.

And to add to the Crabber's bounty, here is the Minor League Baseball Analyst's Top 15:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
3. Francisco Peguero, OF
4. Gary Brown, OF
5. Thomas Neal, OF
6. Charlie Culberson, 2B
7. Tommy Joseph, C
8. Jarrett Parker, OF
9. Brandon Crawford, SS
10. Jose Casilla, RHP
11. Chuckie Jones, OF
12. Ehire Adrianza, SS
13. Michael Main, RHP
14. Heath Hembree, RHP
15. Chris Dominguez, 3B

I love reading the Minor League Baseball Analyst, whole-heartedly recommend it.

2011 Giants Big 6 Prospects

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2011 is different again, just like 2009 and 2010, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.  And 2010 had a number of excellent picks in Brown, Parker, Rosin, Hembree, Kickham, Chuckie Jones,

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 2 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the four three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2011:

1. Brandon Belt:  He is the best by far, has a lot of potential plus he's basically in the majors sooner than later.  His story is well known:  Giants overdraft in Round 5 where many thought closer to Round 10, the former pitcher had his swing reworked suing new video tool leading to him leading the minors in a number of stats across the three levels he played in 2010, including AAA.  Showing surprising stolen-base prowess to go with power, he used the whole field while being disciplined enough to take walks at high rates.  Some have called him a left-handed Buster Posey and Will Clark said that Belt has a better swing than he did.  Should be in the heart of the Giants lineup for most of this decade, the Decade of the Giants, hitting for good (20-25 HR) power and average (plus high OBP), probably in the #5 spot (Sandoval, Posey, Belt).
2. Zack Wheeler:  He is the best pitcher by far, in a system left almost barren by quick promotions of pitchers in recent seasons.  He would be more highly ranked on most Top 100 overall prospect lists if he did not miss half the season due to a torn fingernail; yet, still, many ranked him roughly in the 50-75 range in their Top 100 list.  High strikeout rates due to mid-to-high 90's heater, he also got an extremely high percentage of ground balls.  He also has a good slider and power curveball.  Good mechanics seals the deal, he's a potential #1 starter.  Belt only beats him out because Belt is SOOO close to making the majors.  
3. Gary Brown:  With speed to challenge anyone - he reportedly can get to 1B (as RHB) as fast as the best LHB - he can get to many balls in CF that other cannot.  This also helps in elevating his BABIP plus is handy for stealing bases with abandon.  Most analysts said that he's plus plus in defense in CF but that his jittery batting stance scared off most teams despite him leading the Big West in OPS, not just last year, but over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria's breakout season (his ISO also beat out Longoria too).  The major negative that anyone can throw at him is his lack of walks in 2010 in college, but they are ignoring his high walk totals when he was not that good a hitter his first season on college and the walks he got, albeit small samples, but still a significant percentage, in pro ball in 2010:  he had 6 walks in only 54 PA, that's 11%, which is good.  He's my guy to watch for 2011, I think he will prove that he knows how to take walks plus do all the other stuff the experts say he can, and if so, he can rise fast, like Belt in 2010 and Sandoval in 2008, and be pushing for the majors by season's end.
4. Francisco Peguero:  I've never been impressed with him but the major prospect services have, so I have paid attention to him.  Baseball America says that he has the best blend of power and speed in the Giants system.  He has plus plus speed, which helps him provide plus plus defense.  With Brown around, he's probably headed for RF, which he has played in the minors.  Doesn't walk a lot, but like Sandoval coming up the minors, he has kept his strikeout rate down low against pitchers much older than he is, so that bodes well for him climbing up to the majors.  His coverage of the plate has been very good, as he exhibits good bat speed.  He'll be in AA in 2011, most likely, but could be pushing for the majors by season's end with another good season.
5. Heath Hembree:  Reported 100 MPH in college, the Giants fixed up something with the RHP's delivery and he went from walking 18 in 29 IP in college to outright dominating in the Arizona League, striking out 22 in only 11 IP, but more importantly, 0, zero, nil, nada, walks.  BA says that he profiles as a premium closer and that is what I'm thinking too.  Brian Wilson won't last forever nor stay here forever, so Hembree would be someone we could groom to take over in 2-3 seasons, should Wilson not be around at that point.  At worse, Hembree could be a shutdown set-up guy, which can be almost equally valuable sometimes.  
6. Rafael Rodriguez:  He is on this list because he's a true 5-tool talent.  As much as people want to complain about his 2010 season, that was his 17 YO season, and it would be too much to expect him to dominate out of the chute, especially since he's playing against much older guys, most 2-4 years older than he is (and more experienced).  Yet, his strikeout rate is not that high, around 19%, which means a contact rate of 81% when you ideally want to see the batter at 85% or above.  That should come with time and experience.  His power too.  Meanwhile, he's learning the nuances of fielding and with his strong arm and his speed, he probably could play any of the OF positions when he reaches the majors.  He's expected to make his full season debut in 2011 in low-A Augusta.

Now I can see people scratching their head about the last two.  Again, I lean towards potential and not closeness to the majors.  If the majors were valued more in this ranking a lot of other players would have been in the mix, for as noted, the Giants have been doing well in stocking the farm with players with potential in recent drafts and they are rising up close to the majors soon.  They will be my honorary mentions, basically in order.

Honorary Mentions

• Nick Noonan:  He didn't break out like I thought he would last season, but he was hampered by recurring hamstring problems.  Also, they redid his batting mechanics, using the same video system they used to redo Belt's and the results were very positive:  he started driving the ball and generating better bat speed.  The Giants are talking about moving him back to SS, and if he can field decently there, his offense would carry the day. I think he's someone to keep a close eye on, as well as Brown, they could be pushing on the majors by season end, even if he ends up back at 2B, I think he's on the verge of putting it together as a batter.  Probably repeats AA, but could join bottleneck in AAA by season's end, on merit.
• Ehire Adrianza:  In the past decade, he probably would have made the list, but the team's system is deepening, as I noted.  He reportedly could field SS in the majors now but his offense is what he needs to improve on.  Still, people need to remember, he was only 20 YO last season in a league of 22-24 YO pitchers, and yet he still held his own with the bat, 20% strikeouts/80% contact rate: remember, San Jose's background ups strikeout rate for hitters.  And he gets a good amount of walks too and flashes the speed to use them to steal bases.  He's probably going to repeat in SJ, particularly if Noonan is at SS in AA.
• Brandon Crawford:  Also with major league ready defense at SS, like Ehire, he just strikes out way too much.  Breaking his hand didn't help either.  Maybe he'll try out the new video system and take a leap, like Belt and Noonan.  Should be SS in AAA for 2011.  
• Tommy Joseph:  Probably best power-hitting prospect and he did not disappoint, 16 HR in 436 AB as 18 YO in low-A Augusta, but struck out a lot too with few walks.  C but a lot to learn and scouts felt 1B was his eventual position. 
• Thomas Neal:  The projection systems love him, think he can be solid regular starting OF this season in majors.  He took slight step back in 2010, but I blame EL for sapping his power, which was his plus tool, much like how Ishikawa suffered there (and Crawford, for that matter).  I think he'll be better in AAA playing LF, where he'll probably be in 2011.  
• Eric Surkamp:  He's healthy and looking to continue where he left off:  leading Giants minor leaguers in strikeouts again.  Got to love anyone with more than 1 K per inning and K/BB of almost 5, but since he's doing it as a polished pitcher, and not via one or two great knockout/strikeout pitch, he'll have to prove it at every level, like Pucetas.  I would expect him to start in AA and to move fast to AAA, he could be our 6th starter alternative by then if he continues to dominate like this.  
• Charlie Culberson:  Breakout season, finally (and remember, only 21 YO in 2010), continued doing well in AFL.  Now he has to repeat, probably plays 2B in AA, but very exciting burst of power, would be great to have at 2B (or maybe even 3B, where he played in 2009).
• Chuckie Jones:  Had great start to pro career with an offensive explosion but 61 strikeouts in 165 AB is a huge question mark.  Still, hit very well as 17 YO in AZL, 2-4 years younger and less experienced, so I would cut him huge slack on the strikeouts for now.  Huge power potential, idolized Pujols growing up, grew up in area, St. Louis was ready to draft in next round.  That's why better for teams to overdraft players they like than risk losing to another team.
• Jarrett Parker:  5 tool potential put him high on some Giants prospect lists.  Nice package overall, still have to see more, as he had a down season in college in 2010.

There are many other prospects who I would normally at least produce a blurb on, but I've been busy lately and don't have time. DrB has a very good list at his site, and just continue reading all the stuff he followed that up with, lots of great info there.

As I noted before, the sad fact about prospects is that the vast majority will fail to become a major leaguer at any point, and an even smaller percentage ever become the starters we all love and follow.   That's part of the reason I keep my list to 6, it is just so hard to make the majors as a starter that the Top 6 typically are those who make it.  Still, part of the fun of prospect hounding is when prospects like Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, rise up the system fast and make the majors.  Unfortunately, there is no way to know who will make that rise, you have to monitor and observe and hope for the best.

Sad Story of Angel:  Continued

Unfortunately, sometimes real life intrudes on our revelry.  Angel Villalona, who probably would have made the list somewhere this season, if not for his murder charge, is still being prosecuted for the murder that he was accused of doing.  His visa has been revoked and I believe he was able to post bail and stay out of jail, living with his family, while the preparations for the trial continues.

Until there is a gun with his fingerprints on it, I don't see how he will get convicted, as there are as many people saying he shot the fatal shot as there are people who swear to his innocence because he was near them when the firing happened.  Too many people on both sides for the truth to be exposed in the courtroom.

The odd thing is that if he is able to be found not guilty, assuming the trial is over sometime this year, he'll still be only 21 YO for next season and probably would be OK in San Jose, eventually, once he goes through instructional league to get back into baseball shape.  However, given how fat he got previously as a pro, I would fear that he has gain a tremendous amount of weight while sitting around in jail and now at home.