Hey Zaidi! My Giants Business Plan

This provides easy access to my Giants business plan and captures what I've been discovering and saying are the best ways to run a baseball team for competitive advantage and, in particular, to be more successful in the playoffs, and particularly, ways that has made winning the World Series more likely.  The Giants have followed a good portion of this plan, though not all.  I'm hopeful that Zaidi will not only stay the course, but also will do more to enhance the team's opportunities, just like how the addition of John Barr improved the Giants.

As Zaidi has said in interviews, one needs to be aware of 51%/49% decisions and to understand that just because the results don't go your way, you want to stay the course of what your evidence and findings lead you, which is much like I've been trying to emphasize in my blog over the years, taking the big picture view (or as some like to call it, "trusting the process") and with this business plan. 

As much as the Giants have been losing in the past few years (yes, two and a HALF years), they have mostly stayed the course with their process of building up pitching and defense (not as much on the latter, to be frank, though, else they would have brought up Duggar sooner).  And Zaidi, with his comment about that quality elite defense is the key to low-scoring games (which implies having a great rotation and bullpen combination on the Giants going forward), appears to be on board with this process, only with his new twists that he will bring to the team.

[Note:  I've re-written the original starting post to be addressed to Farhan Zaidi, new President of Baseball Operations of the San Francisco Giants, but the original series of links were to Bill Neukom, soon after he was hired. I think that's my main thing I'll be working on during my break, is to re-examine all my prior posts, start with them as a base, re-write them giving my admittedly cursory knowledge of what Zaidi has said in his Giants interviews so far.  Like Maria Kondo advocates, it "sparks joy" for me to think about doing this.  I might do a few draft articles as well.  

I'm getting this out now, since I had started it before my decision to take a break, but probably won't start updating the rest until next year, as I research what else I can update for each chapter of my business plan.  I backdated it to the day of his press conference, hence it's calendar placement, but the rest will be published in real time.  I'll update the links below to the new chapters, as each gets published, so this post will change links over time, and perhaps other content, as noted below.]

Start Spreading the News: Giants Sign Johnny Cueto to 6 years, $130M

Getting news off Twitter:

• Cueto has agreed to deal, now pending physical, as usual.
• $130M over 6 years, so more than D-backs offer ($21.67M AAV for threshold purposes)
• Opt-out after two years, team option for 7th
• $23M for first two years, $21M over final four

Your 2013 Giants: Fanatics, Keep Your Dawber Up

After the nice run of wins, these two losses probably returns some to their prior glass is half empty mental state.  And I am starting to understand this phenomenon, why Giants fans get so down on the team even though the past four seasons have been the most successful period in San Francisco Giants franchise history, and among the best in Giants franchise history:  it is media driven.

It started long before it became a trend, with the bad road losses, when the Giants were 8-8 on the road previously and it was fully acknowledged that it was oddities to lose to Toronto and Colorado like that.  And it has spiraled downward, justifiably, ultimately, as the team succumbed to injuries that followed - which is the sole reason for the downturn, not that road trip.  Enough that one beat writer, who had not written for a long time on his blog, suddenly decided that the season was over, that it was time to give up.

And now, after a nice streak of wins, you get one loss to the D-backs, after a well-pitched game by Bumgarner, you get another beat writer talking about how the Giants don't have much of a chance of winning the division, because we would need to beat both the D-backs and D-gers to get the division title, and we are in even worse position to try to get either of the wild cards.

Your 2010 Decade Giants: Choices

Choices.

In baseball, there are a multitude of choices being made every season and off-season, choices as to how the team will proceed into the future.  From reading, I get the sense that there is a portion of the Giants fanbase who view the 2012 off-season much like the 2010 off-season:  full of mistakes and treading water.   I disagree.

Giants 2012 Offseason and  2010 Offseason

The Giants, while having a rabid fanbase that's been setting attendance records regularly at our gorgeous park, is still limited in what they can spend on player payroll.   They cannot keep up with the Jones (or Guggleheim's or Steinbrenner's).  So while it might have been nice to add a Josh Hamilton or other high priced player to the payroll, there is the opportunity cost involved with such a move, which is that there is less money for the Giants to sign up our young players into the future.

That was not understood in off-season's past, it was not understood this off-season.  Getting a Hamilton or similarly salaried player would have meant that the Giants payroll would have went much above where they were targeting, which means lowering spending in future seasons to balance things out (because ultimately it is still a business and need to make money).

That would impact the Giants ability to sign up Lincecum, Posey, or Sandoval, further into the future, forcing them to let go of some their core homegrown players at some point, and would affect their ability to sign up Pence long-term as well.  It also puts the team at risk too, for if Hamilton goes off the wagon or be like most 31 YO players, start declining in production at a great rate, and we'll be out the money and still have to replace his production (think of it as having 2 to 3 Benitez type contracts on the roster).

It was not the Giants choices, ultimately, that decided their fate in the 2011 season, in any case, it was the silly, unthoughtful, unethical, uncalled for choice by a Marlin's borderline roster player, who knew he didn't have a good chance of scoring on that flyball, but decided that his best choice was to become a human missile and heat seek Buster Posey and blast him to kingdom come.  That he was surprised that a human being would crumple from such an impact, was the biggest surprise, what did he think was the worse case scenario?  A hangnail?  I have no doubt that had Posey been around, we would have made the playoffs and there would have been no reason for fans to think that status quo was bad for the 2011 season and therefore bad for the 2013 season.

I think the two offseasons cannot simply be dismissed as status quo.   Not when you have a number of young players who can and should improve in the following seasons.  Not when the lineups are set up to be good enough to win over 90 games with the pitching and fielding that we have, leading to great defense.  For that is the goal, to win at least 90 games, which historically gets you into the playoffs and should win you a division title, and if that is status quo, then give me status quo.  And as good as the chemistry is and was, it was the performances that won them the title.

KC and the Giants, and how Choices Connect Them

A recent column by a Yahoo columnist surmised that the Royals were trying to be like the Giants, and find winners who will create a clubhouse full of harmony and camaraderie, which leads gold and riches and championships.  Ignoring, of course, that it was pitching, pitching, and more pitching that won the championship for the Giants.

That got me thinking about the Royals choices.  I realized that the Royals could have been in the Giants shoes (or at least close to the same fit), had they had made different choices.

In 2006, the Royals had the first pick of the draft.  FIRST PICK.  Can pick anybody and nobody could stop them.  They selected Luke Hochevar.  He has barely been a back of rotation starter in the majors.  They obviously was sold a bill of goods by Scott Boras there.  There were numerous better picks just immediately afterward.  Longoria.  Kershaow.  Of course, Big Time Jimmy Tim.  Max Scherzer.  Ian Kennedy.  Even Brandon Morrow or Joba Chamberlain would have been much better picks.

Imagine how different things would have been had they chosen Lincecum.  Who knows who the Giants would have selected instead.  Most had them picking up Daniel Bard, ironically, who is making a name for himself as a reliever, when most teams were worried enough about Lincecum that he would just be a reliever.  I had been hoping for Kyle Drybeck because I didn't think anyone better would make it to us, but then one mock draft had Lincecum falling to us, and lo and behold, we got him.

In 2007, the Royals had the second pick of the draft.  Moustakas has not been bad but he hasn't been good either.  Matt Weiters went a few picks later (maybe the Hochevar signing didn't impress them enough).  Of course, our Madison Bumgarner.  Jason Heyward, but he don't count because the Braves already had him in their hip pocket because he played all the teams, telling them that he's going to college, where his college professor parents want him to be.  Meanwhile, the Braves scout who has been a buddy of the family for 5-6 years win the kudos of the front office organization for that coup.

And in the second round, there was also Jordan Zimmerman and the player to be renamed later, Giancarlo "Mike" Stanton (I guess he hated being mistaken for that relief pitcher who once was a Giant), though by that point, picks are more like lottery tickets than picks make with great foresight, so can't really blame KC for missing out on them, but at the same time, they were available.

The Giants were pretty much out of luck if they did not have Bumgarner around to select, among the players similarly available to them.

In 2008, they had the third pick and selected Eric Hosmer.  There is still hope out for him, and who knows what he could do, but so far, not so much.  Of course, the Giants picked Buster Posey a couple of picks later.  Brett Lawrie, Ike Davis, and Wade Miley were other good picks later who look to have good careers, plus Aaron Crow and Gordon Beckham, both of whom have had up and downs, Crow is a reliever (though good) and Beckham after a great start, has appeared to have lost it.

The Giants in that draft was associated most with Justin Smoak, that I can recall.  Many Giants fans were so enamored with him that they were angry about Posey being selected and openly said that Sabean made a mistake.  Clearly, history has shown that Posey indeed was the correct choice.

Alternative Universe Scenario

All in all, life could have been much different for KC and SF.  By 2010, the Royals could have had Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey on their major league club.  In 2011, Posey, Gordon, and Butler would have been a nice trio hitting in the middle of the lineup, plus Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur, and Eric Hosmer.   That would have been a pretty stout offense with Posey in the clean-up spot.    Meanwhile, with a rotation of Lincecum, Greinke, Bumgarner, Chen, Paulino, they would have been pretty good, assuming that with this configuration, the cheapskate ownership would have ponied up to sign Greinke longer term at that point.

Of course, that is assuming KC would have gotten the same out of them as the Giants did.  Remember, Bumgarner was struggling to figure things out when Tidrow stepped in and helped correct his mechanics.  And Lincecum, who knows if KC might have tried to muck with his mechanics and try to change him.  Or believed the hype and made him a reliever.   Crow was a starter and they made him a reliever and he was the #9 draft pick overall (I wonder if he regrets not signing with the Nationals in 2008?).  I can't imagine Posey being any different, however.

For SF, things would probably be the exact opposite, almost.  Without the trio of Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, the Giants of 2010 to 2012 would probably be best known for putting "Cained" into the lexicon, as Matt continued to lose despite pitching well, and perhaps would have left already via free agency or trade, another "if only" figure in the SF Giants history, up there with Jack Clark.   The team would have been struggling because the prospects they probably would have ended up with instead would not have collective produce what any of these three produced individually.  And Sabean would have been rightfully fired during this period.

Luck, Schmuck

That is why many Giants fans still view the Giants and Sabean as lucky.  Other teams could have and should have drafted them before Sabean did.  Therefore, Sabean was lucky and is so terrible that he should have been fired years ago.

These people seem to never follow the logic of their assumptions out in full, to my view.  If having a player fall to you is luck, then the Yankees were lucky that Jeter fell to them when Sabean (yes, our GM in his former job) jumped on him when the opportunity to draft him came up.  Heck, the Angels were lucky that Trout fell to them late in the first round, as 20 other teams passed on him (and a couple of teams twice!).  In fact, you can then make the case that any team in history who selected after the first overall pick was lucky, because that first overall pick could have chosen that particular player instead and your GM would not have been so lucky to get him.  That is what the logical extension of that assumption made by people thinking that Sabean was lucky.

The funny thing, as the KC example showed, it was not just Sabean who was "lucky".   The Royal's GM could have been as "lucky" as I covered above.   In fact, the Ray's, Oriole's, and Pirate's GMs could have been as lucky too, as they also picked in front of the Giants in those three key pivotal drafts.  Yet, none of them were "lucky", it was Sabean who was "lucky" (though the Rays obviously love Longoria still).

There is luck, and there is preparation enabling you to jump on it when the opportunity and the fates decides.   Nine teams passed on Lincecum and Bumgarner, obviously thinking that their pick was the better pick.  Posey was considered strongly for the first pick, but none of the teams between the Rays and Giants considered him, according to the sources passing notes under the table to expert draft analysts, they had their minds made up.

The Giants could have gone with the status quo.  Oh, Lincecum's body won't hold up, and that wacky mechanics!  Oy!  Bumgarner was viewed to go later in the round due to his cross-body throwing that indicates future injury problems.  And Heyward, who looks like McCovey hitting, was a natural or any one of the hitters who were available then and deemed worthy of a 10th pick.  What!?!  Another pitcher?  Posey?  No, we need a HITTER like Smoak, Posey was only expected to be a gold glove catcher who hit OK, for a catcher, not OK for any position on the field.  He'll never reach 20 homers in a season, even at his peak, he was only expected to reach the mid-teens in terms of potential.

The fact of the matter is that after all the hemming and hawing, and all the rationalizations against him, it was Sabean who OKed the selection of all of these players.  Tidrow, Barr and the scouts did make great contributions in finding these players, but really, that's true of any organization, the manager does not do everything.  It is the manager who finds the talented people, hire them, and put them into position to make himself look good, ultimately.  It is the sum of the decisions he makes along the way, whether he actually made them himself or determined that his lieutenants were good enough to make the calls themselves, that adds up to what the end product is.

The end product is two World Championships in three seasons.  He was so "lucky" that his Giants were the first NL team to do that since the 1975-76 Reds won them in two consecutive seasons and only three NL teams have done that since the Giants moved to SF:  the Dodgers also won two in three, in 1963 and 1965.  Including AL teams, that adds five more teams in the 54 years since the Giants move to SF:  Yankees 1961-62, Oakland 1972-74 (three in a row), Yankees 1977-78, Blue Jays 1992-93, Yankees 1996-2000 (four in five).

So were all those teams lucky too?  If so, why are we bothering to even follow baseball, since championships are determined by mostly luck?

I prefer to give credit to the people who make the decisions.  The GM who selected the players.  The manager who put them in place to succeed.  The hitters who decided to swing at the pitch and got the big hit, the pitchers who decided to throw the strike that got the outs, the fielders who made the great play to get the out.  In the moment, real time.

No DIPS random luck to muck up the analysis, sure, there is luck in everything if you really want to push it, but I prefer to honor the good work made by the people who make the decisions, the ones who when given the opportunity, made the best of their chances, of their choices.

Your San Francisco Giants: Team of the 2010 Decade

I was going to post this on a popular Giants community but then I realized that it would fall on deaf ears anyway and they would just attack with unkind words once more.

I'm Sad

Yes, sad to say, but even with the Giants SECOND World Championship in THREE years, I'm sad.  I know I'm odd.  I know I walk to the beat of a different drum.  I care whether my brothers are happy or not. And I consider my fellow Giants fans to all be my brothers (and sisters too, just don't want to repeat this every time).

And there are still clearly Giants fans who either are:  deluded, just can't enjoy themselves, or just can't let things go.  And I understand that last one, as I can't let it go either.

Grant (among others) railed into me a couple of years ago because I had the temerity to say that fans should thank Brian Sabean, or they don't deserve to enjoy that the Giants were in the World Series again (this was before the series started).  Afterward, he told me that I should be happy I was right - THIS TIME - and intimated that it would be different in the future.  After the Giants 2 of 3 mini-dynasty here, who's right now?

Team of the 2010 Decade

Part of being an analyst is finding something to either rally people together or to stick bamboo shoots under the nails of others.  I had already been feeling disenchanted with the Naysayers for a while when in the late 2000's decade, I thought of this term - Team of the 2010 Decade - as both an indication of what I thought the team could do if things went as they appeared to be going and a way to give the Naysayers something to feel uncomfortable with.

Honestly, I like to protect people.  I tried to protect my friends in the 70's when they thought that the Giants were going to have a good season, like they did before, and I told him point-blank:  no, they were going to be mediocre.  Not the worse, but not the best either.  I didn't want them thinking things were good when they were not.  I also tried to protect fellow fans today through the wonders of social media, that, hey, sure we've been going through a tough patch here in the mid-2000's, during Bonds' last years with us, but the pot at the end of the rainbow is coming near.  But I was a pariah for daring to be openly happy when Sabean got another two year extension.  And the future did look good to me, and I didn't want my fellow fans to lose hope and get their dauber down, because I felt that hope was around the corner, and soon.

We had Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and there was Brian Wilson and Pablo Sandoval, plus Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey were rising up the farm pretty fast, and Jonathan Sanchez could be pretty good when he's not screwing himself up.  And the latest studies back then said that pitching and fielding, with a good closer and bullpen were the keys to going deep into the playoffs (and nothing new has come out since), and winning it all, wining that elusive World Championship that we all had been pining for.  Plus, my research showed that a good defensive team could win even with a poor (not the worse but poor) offense.  Then, any lineup with Sandoval and Posey in the middle could never be that bad, you just need to find some average hitters to surround them with, and the offense would be good enough.

It all made pretty good sense to me.  I knew that there was a good chance that I could have egg on my face for saying that the Giants were going to finally win a World Series with this core group, but I thought that the potential was there.  Analysts need to tread near the edge sometimes.

Faster to First Than Anybody Else

I'll admit that I never dreamed that it would happen so fast, in fact, the first year of the 2010 Decade.  And I never dreamed that it would happen twice in three seasons (and who knows what would have happened last season, with a healthy Posey and a still consistently great Lincecum, along with a hot Beltran).  Given the vagaries of the playoff system - see the Phillies in 2011 - I felt good that they would win one eventually because they had great pitching, but when was not clear both because other teams had good pitching too plus while a team can win with a poor offense, that don't mean that they'll win every time.  Still, it was clear to me that they should win one eventually, so I wasn't totally surprised by 2010's championship.

And now it is looking pretty good that the Giants will be the Team of the 2010 Decade.  They certainly have put their stamp all over it with two out of three years already.  And the core keeps on improving and improving.

That's because player development continued apace.  Just when I thought that Posey might be the last significant position player to be produced, Brandon Belt emerged from obscurity to be our version of Trout for the Angels - not as great, but just as impactful, for a Giants team that now had poor draft position.  Getting any starter from the draft is hard, but to get one who looks like he'll be a star player for years to come, from as far back as the 5th round is nearly impossible.  Then Brandon Crawford showed off great potential in the majors after being rushed up, and his defense is such that we can afford to carry him even if his offense is not great, and yet he has shown the ability to be a good hitter to boot.

Give It Up to our Scouts

Furthermore, the team kept on picking up key pieces through cheap free agents and seemingly minor trades. Andres Torres.  Juan Uribe.  Freddy Sanchez.  Aubrey Huff.  Pat Burrell.  Mike Fontenot.  Ramon Ramirez.  Javier Lopez.  Jose Guillen.  Cody Ross.  Santiago Casilla.  Chris Stewart.  Ryan Vogelsong.  Melky Cabrera.  Angel Pagan.  Gregor Blanco.  Joaquin Arias.  George Kontos.  Clay Hensley.  Marco Scutaro.  Jose Mijares.  Some were out of the total blue, like Torres and Vogelsong.  Others, like Casilla, Stewart, Blanco, and Arias, you look at their past record and wonder how the heck we got them, as they had good peripherals, some even good OBP, and yet they were desperate for a job somewhere, anywhere.

Our Giants scouts appear to have a long memory now, remembering players who were once good.  Like Crawford, who had a bad junior year but was expected to be a first rounder before his junior season.  Or Arias, who was a key player in the A-Rod trade with the Yankees, with Texas choosing him over Cano.  Over and over again, whether in the draft or signing minor league free agents, it seemed like our scouts saw something that nobody else saw, and pounced.  THAT is what Moneyball is really about, about seeing something that your competitors can't see and acting on your beliefs before the price got sky high.

The Future Looks Bright, I Gotta Wear Orange and Black Shades

Now the team is beyond what I could ever dream about.  Posey, according to the experts, was going to be a great defensive catcher but only a good, not great hitter, meanwhile Weiters was considered the much better hitter and for power, and the lesser on defense.  They couldn't be more reversed of the experts opinion.   And Posey is the likely MVP of the 2012 season, having already been voted that by two different organizations and likely to win the traditional MVP award given by The Sporting News.  And this was his first full season.  He's the offense's equivalent of Tim Lincecum, in terms of performance.

We still have Pandoval, but with Belt and likely Hunter Pence, long term, we have a great core for the middle of our lineup, for at least 3 if not more seasons:  Sandoval, Posey, Pence, Belt.  I can see Belt moving to bat 2nd once he can hit regularly and not strike out so much, as he has a high OBP, good speed, ability to steal bases, plus can hit for good power to boot.  That is a great middle of lineup.

Up top, we have Pagan, I believe, as I think he'll sign with us for a fair contract, and then when Gary Brown is ready, we'll have the best leadoff guy we have had probably since Brett Butler manned CF for us.

Meanwhile, both Blanco and Crawford look like they can be good hitters for us at some point.  Blanco is very good at getting on base already in his career, and he can loft the ball often enough to get extra-base power going for us.  Crawford definitely will develop some power, and looks like he can eventually learn to hit as well, and be both a great glove and a good bat at SS for us.  And both project, with the above hitters around, to be our bottom of lineup guys.  They can be real strengths for us there, giving us depth in our lineup, with no easy outs, much like the Cards this season.

And whether or not the Giants re-sign Scutaro - my bet is that they do - they should be able to retain Theriot, who was good for us when healthy during the season, bridging us from Freddy to Marco.  And I'm hopefuly that Nick Noonan will be able to provide some good performances here and there in the near future for us at 2B.  Plus, Joe Panik still is looking good for rising up to the majors and taking the starting 2B job in a couple of years or so.

So the offense looks really good, and look really likely to be good for at least three if not more seasons.  On top of that, Posey I'm still hoping can be a great defensive catcher, Belt, Crawford, Sandoval, and Blanco are already great fielders, so I expect another good defensive year from the Giants in 2013.  If anything, it should be better, as Crawford was really lost for a while in early 2012 and I think Posey's ankle recovery made him less able to do certain catcher tasks

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

That has been my mantra for many years now.  And the Giants got pitching.  I totally believe that 2012 was just a hiccup that Lincecum had and he'll be fine going forward.  Plus Cain and Bumgarner will be our steady Eddie's in the rotation.  And Vogelsong, I think, will surprise with his longevity as a good pitcher, despite his advanced age, as he knows how to pitch, and when his velocity goes down, he'll still be able to sling a good start.  And Barry Zito, contract aside, is great for us as our #5 starter, and when he is on, he's as good as any of our other starters.  And they are all capable of throwing a DOM start regularly during the season and during the playoffs, and DOM starts are how, as my research showed, (one and two) a team can rush through the playoffs and win the World Series championship.

So our starting pitching looks good, barring injury, for at least a couple of years (and I think we can resign Lincecum to a contract similar to Cain, but bigger in terms of dollars per year) plus good prospects coming up.  They have young guys available near-term, like Eric Surkamp, Chris Heston, and Michael Kickham performing well in the upper minors, plus Yusmeiro Petit possibly around as well.  Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton, and Martin Agosta, are more far off, but they look like they have good potential for reaching up here and doing well, as their strikeout ability is good.  And the four of them have potential to be top of the rotation type starters, from what I've read about their potential.  True, many prospects die on the vine, but with four potential top of rotation starters, have to think at least one will at least be a good enough starter for the Giants.

The bullpen looks good as well, even if Brian Wilson don't come back (hard to tell with guys with their second TJS).  Obviously, Sergio Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Mijares, and Kontos is a pretty good core there.  Plus, I think that they will be able to resign Jeremy Affeldt to a contract for another couple of seasons.  And I think Runzler will finally be healthy enough to take a spot in the bullpen, though that would make it four lefties in the bullpen in 2013.

In the farm system, I think that Heath Hembree and Brett Bochy will be ready to contribute real soon, as soon as there is an opening.  And I still like Dan Otero for contributions at some point, Jacob Dunnington too.  Plus, Clay Hensley was good for us until he got injured, which blew up his ERA, which was in the 2's until that happened.  But there is not enough space in the bullpen, so there could be a trade, or they might let Affeldt go, but there is a lot of bullpen talent and not enough space for all of these guys.  And starters could always move to the bullpen and do well, as Lincecum so deliciously showed us in these playoffs, and as Eckersley showed long ago.

Dynasty, Dynasty, Dynasty

Based on the above, I don't see why, barring a huge catastrophe of some sort, the Giants can't continue to be competitive for the World Series championship every season.  They won't necessarily win every season, but with their core players all in their 20's, they should be more World Series games (and championships) in their future, creating a dynasty not seen in the NL since the Big Red Machine of the 70's or in the majors since the Yankees of the late 1990's (which had a core of Jeter, Posoda, Pettitte, and Rivera, all of whom were acquired by the Yankees under their then scouting director, Brian Sabean).  The Giants should be the Team of the Decade, Team of the 2010's.

Your 2012 Giants Are World Champions!!!

Epic!

Wow, what a game!  What a series!  What a season!

If ever there was a team effort for World Series MVP, this was it.  Sure, Pablo Sandoval gave the Tigers a gut punch in the first game with his homers and hit well all through the series, but what got lost among all that is that Barry Zito pitched a great game, to go with his other great game. Without Zito, the march to being the World Champions would have ended seven games ago.

And while Pablo won the game for us in game 1, it was Hunter Pence who scored the first run in the following three games, and without those runs, who knows if we would have scored the runs to win those games, and he drove in the second run in game 2, and the Tigers would have won in regulation in game 4.  And Buster Posey, delivering a key homer once again, that kept the game alive into extra innings.  Of course, Marco Scutaro again was in the middle of the action, driving in the winning run, and I thought it was apropos that he drove in Ryan Theriot, the guy he replaced at 2B, the guy who hit well for us starting at 2B after he healed up on the DL, and helped us bridge from Freddy Sanchez to Scutaro.  And back to the start again, Sandoval stout hitting in the series helped make that happen, as the Tigers had to pitch to Scutaro or face Sandoval with two runners on base.

And what about the defense?  Even though they did not hit particularly well in the World Series, both Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco were making big plays in the outfield over and over again.  Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt as well in the infield, as well as Scoots.  And, in any case, when they did get hits, they got them in key situations, and really, when you are winning games by 1-2 runs, every run is critical and key.

What about the bullpen?  Tim Lincecum was so dominant in middle relief, probably the best middle reliever ever. Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla were great in setup.  Sergio Romo was great in closing out games, closing out the finale in exclamation with a called strike three on AL MVP Cabrera!  And that struck out the side.

And, despite little usage in the World Series, George Kontos and Javier Lopez, without their work in the NL series, we would not have been here, at the end, Champions once more.  For those who didn't see the importance of spending $10M on both Affeldt and Lopez should see what happened to the Tigers with their bullpen, to see why we spent that money on proven players who the team's management knew, and could trust and rely on proven performance.

Most of all, the starting pitching:  Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Cain.  We got three DOM starts in the World Series, and as I noted in my research before, it is DOM starts by pitchers that helps their team win over 70% of the time.  They had 8 DOM starts between the NLCS and the World Series, helping the Giants win the World Championship.  Not that the Tigers fell down like the Cards did - only one DOM start in the seven games - as the Tigers also had DOM starts, in the last three games, but that is where the hitters come in as well as our pitchers, we scored just enough to win each game.  Hitting, pitching, fielding, everyone contributed their necessary contribution to enable the championship, nothing was too small to be of importance, each was necessary for that glorious second championship in three seasons.

San Francisco Giants:  Team of the 2010's Decade

I've been saying this since the late 2000's, that the Giants had the makings of the Team of the 2010 Decade.  Of course, there is the lovely and great starting pitching to start with, Lincecum, Cain, and, clearly, Bumgarner coming up.  Then Sabean has been great at putting together a great bullpen, as he has been able to for much of his time as GM, when the team is good, he is able to pull the trades to build up a great bullpen.  And they have been almost picture perfect for what Baseball Prospectus' study on success in the playoffs found:  high strikeout pitching staff (check!), great closer (check!), and great fielding defense also (check!).

But you still need some sort of offense.  Before this season, we had to accept imperfections because it took time to develop an offense after concentrating on the pitching for so long.  Talent does not come into any baseball system quick enough via the draft and international free agents to fuel a championship.  The Giants, to their credit, has supplemented well in finding gems among the minor free agents, with Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, and Joaquin Arias coming in and contributing significantly from 2009 to 2012.  That is the to the credit of the Giants scouts.

Meanwhile, the Giants picked up offensive gems along the way, Sandoval, Posey, then Belt, Crawford, and Hector Sanchez.  These they grew along the way, while also picking up pieces like Theriot, Pagan, Blanco.  Then traded for the final pieces to this Epic Championship team, Scutaro and Pence, and they were what drove the offense to the championship, as they outscored the Cards and Tigers by a total of 36-7 in the last seven game, averaging 5.1 runs per game while holding the other team to 1.0 run per game in that stretch, keeping the opponents to 3 runs or under in each of the games in the stretch, reminiscent of their streak in late in the 2010 season.

The Giants, by winning their second World Series Championship in three seasons, has laid strong claim on this decade.  If ownership and management can keep this core going forward, this should not be the last of their championships, and hopefully just the beginning.  We should have the core players to at least mid-decade, and if the money can be ponied up, into the latter half of the decade as well.

Thank You Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy!

And we have Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy to thank for this.  Of course, they could not do it without their top advisers like Dick Tidrow and John Barr, Dave Righetti and Mark Gardner, Tim Flannery and Ron Wotus.  Still, they are the ones who get the public scrutiny.

Sabean, what a masterful job he has done, putting together all the pieces, first with the great pitching staff, then now with the great lineup.  Bochy, what a masterful job he has done, balancing the present and the future while steering the team to another playoff berth, then switching to cut-throat managing, managing as if each game, each win, was necessary to prevent elimination.  And, of course, that paid off in both the Reds and Cards series, as they faced six games of elimination and swept them all.  Hopefully the Naysayers can now see that it is not luck that the Giants won, but through excellent decision making on the parts of Sabean and Bochy.

I am thankful that we have the two of them employed for the Giants and hope that the Giants first moves of the off-season be to sign the two of them to another joint extension.  They have earned it, in spades.

Then I hope the next moves after that, in no particular order, be to sign Posey (ok he should be first), Pence, Pagan to long term contracts.  Plus sign Scutaro, Sandoval, Lincecum, and Affeldt to two year extensions.  I would not mind a long term deal for Belt if possible, Crawford too.

And there is money coming in to fuel all these contracts.  Remember, the new ESPN deal doubles the revenues delivered to teams, adding over $11M to each team's coffers each year.  And revenues from MBLAM has been growing each year, it is one of the great Internet e-commerce success stories so far.   And season ticket holders should expect prices to go up again, as well.  Plus there is usually a windfall from being in the playoffs as well.  Lastly, I'm still hoping the A's will pay at least $100M for the South Bay rights, which will pay for a lot of long-term player contracts.

Congratulations again to the 2012 World Champs, Go Giants!

Your 2012 Giants: Opening Day 25-man Roster

Ultimately, the fans' fury and worry was for naught, as the Giants went with youth over vets.  Bochy announced the roster live on CSN Bay Area at 11:30AM PDT (it was available on-line!).  Here is the 25-man roster (CSN, Mercury, Chronicle):

• SP:  Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Barry Zito
• RP:  Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Clay Hensley, Javier Lopez, Guillermo Mota, Dan Otero, Sergio Romo
• C:  Buster Posey, Hector Sanchez
• IF:  Brandon Belt, Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff, Brett Pill, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Theriot
• OF:  Gregor Blanco, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nate Schierholtz

Eli Whiteside was optioned (amazingly, he still had one!) to Fresno, so if we need an experienced catcher, we can pull one up as necessary.  Chris Stewart, unfortunately, had to be let go and Bochy said that his fate would be announced in around an hour (he has been traded to the Yankees for a reliever, George Kontos, who was the top RH reliever not ranked in BA's Top 30, if that counts for anything.  2.62 ERA in 89.1 IP in AAA last season).  They must really really like Sanchez's bat a lot to do this.

Otero won the battle for the right to hold the spot warm for Ryan Vogelsong while Vogie is DLing until the 5th spot opens up on April 15th.  As I noted before, great stats, should not be the last time we see him, could be first RH call-up if any problems; Runzler is probably first LH.

Bochy said that Belt would be playing 1B most of the time, but then noted that Pill would get the starts against LHP.  Later, he also noted that Posey would see time at 1B when it is decided that he needs rest but can play 1B, and Bochy said that it would be against LHP.  Of course, that pushed Huff to LF and Schierholtz out of the starting lineup, which was one of the scenarios I laid out before spring training.  One thing I did not see was Gregor Blanco winning a spot, and so convincingly, even if a starter went down, Bochy would probably go to him before Schierholtz.

He would not commit to a starter at 2B, stating his mix and match process.  I think that has to do with a number of factors.  One is that Burriss suddenly got cold.  Another is that Theriot heated up.  Most of all, I think, it was noted at some point (can't recall if Bochy said it or I hear/saw it somewhere else) that Freddy Sanchez was suddenly looking better and doing more, so the Giants are more hopeful now that he'll be back sooner than later.  That could explain the Giants comment about Burriss being a super-utility guy for them.

PQS in the Playoffs (second in series)

I published the first in the series last month here.  The PQS stats there looked OK, but not too conclusive with just two year's worth of data.  I'm covering 2009 and 2008 in this post.

2009

In 2009, the team with the higher PQS wins won 4 of the 5 times (with two ties).  The team with the higher PQS average won 5 of 5 series (two ties).  Higher DOM does appear to correlate with winning series in 2009.

In games where the pitcher was expected to win, the higher DOM pitcher's team had a 13-3 record (.813 win percentage).  There were 14 ties.  Where pitchers had a DOM start, their teams went 18-10 (.650 win pct), but there were 8 games where both pitchers had a DOM start, so removing those games leaves the games where one pitcher had a DOM and the other didn't, and those teams with the DOM went 10-2 (.867).

There was good but not great pitching with 47% DOM and 25% DIS starts overall.  Pitching was pretty good, as indicated by the 47% DOM, but not great (DOM over 50%) or elite (DOM over 70%).  In addition, there was a fair amount of bad pitching with 25% DIS (under 20% is good, under 10% great, under 5% elite).

2008

In 2008, the DOM's had it.  The team with the most PQS wins, as well as best average PQS score, won all seven series.  The expected team to win went 19-1 and teams where their pitcher had a DOM start went 20-7, or 14-1 when you remove all games where both starters had a DOM start.  Teams where their starters had a DIS start went 3-18, or 1-16 when you remove all games where both starters had a DIS start.

2008-2011

The results appear very conclusive already.  So I might not even continue going back to older series.  Over the four seasons of playoffs, the expected team to win went 67-15, the team having a DOM start went 81-37, and 56-12 when you take out the ties.  Teams with DIS starts had a 25-57 record, 11-43 without ties.

As I have been writing about for a number of years now, to maximize your team's chances of winning in the playoffs, you want to have a rotation of starters who have high DOM percentages  The Giants have that with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and Vogelsong.  And Sanchez was good too.

As the 2011 Phillies showed, you can get DOM starts from all your starters in a series and still lose the series to a lesser team.  Getting DOM starts is no guarantee.  But as the results of the past four seasons studied here shows, it is better than the alternative (DIS starts in particular).

One valid reaction to this is "so what, what's new about getting good starts means you win a lot?"  First, this is the first study I know of that studied PQS advantage in the playoffs.  Of course, it's better, but by what degree.  And that is the second thing, it quantifies the advantage of getting a DOM start and the disadvantage of a DIS start.  Teams with a DOM start went 81-37, those with DIS went 25-57, and more crucially, 11-43 when against better pitching.

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Optimism: In the Eye of the Beholder

Many commenters have called me optimistic over the years.  When I was a frequent contributor at McCovey Chronicles (until I was driven away by the Naysayers), there was a regular (who I think is a mod, bad memory but I think his handle was Goofus), who would ask "I need to hear something good about the Giants:  ogc?"  (and he meant it in the nicest way possible)  I've been called Pollyanna for my efforts as well.

I can see why people see me that way, but I've been blessed/cursed with the ability/need to see all the sides of the story, no matter the situation.  And that helped me survive my dad passing away when I was young and has served me well all my life.  But the curse is that some view me as wishy-washy because of that.

However, I can live with the messiness that is life, there is the good, the bad, and the ugly, this is not something others with OCD tendencies can do.  For those with long memories, I view myself much like Marvel Comic's character, the Watcher, in observing the Giants (except that I'm rooting for the Giants, while the Watcher is stoic).

What this reminds me of is a common conundrum in business investing.  Sometimes, the key difference between whether one person/company invests while another avoids is because where one sees risk, the other sees opportunity.  It is not necessarily a matter of risk tolerance either, though that is a huge factor in a lot of situations, but there are cases where success and failure swings clearly on the point of view of the observer, their perspective of the situation.

Lets take the Giants, for example, since this is a Giants blog :^).  I have been seeing a lot of negative talk in the media.  And I understand that, the Giants are in a bad stretch of losing right now, and to teams they should to beating.  I could point out names but really, most of the Giants media are beating the negative drum.  Same for Giants fans, but that seems to go without saying, unfortunately.

Again, I understand that.  It's never good to be losing 17 out of 24 games.  To lose games that you should be winning.  To watch good pitchers suddenly lose it and cost us the game.  To watch hitters not produce.  I get that.

But I've also been following baseball for 40 years now (whew, just realized that!).  Plus, I love history, so I've read about (and perused through baseball-reference.com) a lot of baseball pennant chases and epic successes and fails on the playoff front, like the Boston Braves in 1914 or the 1964 Phillies, or more recently, the Rockies with their late season drives or the Padres last season.  So I've both seen a lot plus know a lot.

Two games behind is nothing.  A lead like that can disappear in two days.  We know it and we've seen it (like last season for the Giants or really any season, any team).

We've also seen teams go from good to bad to good again.   We know it and we've seen it (like last season for the Giants or really any season, any team).

Lots of Giants fans see "losing, losing, and more losing" and they lose their heads and say the sky is falling.  I've seen it many times over the years, I've seen it last year and this year.  They have a terrible angst about losing, from June Swoons to worries about the offense, "the bad son", while the pitching, "the good son", is totally ignored.

Great Pitching Makes Winning Easier

We have a lot of great pitching.  Maybe they are tired from the long extended run in 2010.  Probably not, at least overall, as my data showed about how the pitching is doing in August.  They certainly have been more inconsistent than they have been this season, but then again, they were very insistent last season as well, until they righted the ship and dominated in September and October.  Doesn't mean it will happen now, but they are great pitchers and have accomplished a lot, including their streak of 18 straight games with 3 runs or less given up, 23 straight games with 4 runs or less given up, that they did in September of last season.

That's not optimism.  That's a fact:  we have great pitching.  Great pitching keeps us in a lot of games.  Sure, they will cough up games like they did yesterday, or when BWeez blew his save.  But more often than not, they have done the job for us.  Plus, the better the pitchers, the less the offense has to do in order to win.

Doesn't mean that they will do it for us this month or this season, I totally agree.  But it won't stop me from enjoying these games in September.  Baseball is meant to be enjoyed.  Else why get so passionate about it?

Media:  Nattering Nabobs of Negativism

I think the media is at fault for at least part of that.  That seems to be how the media operates, I've learned.  Whether the stock market (with the quarter to quarter obsession that investors generally have) or baseball, where all they can write about is the here and now negativeness.

Honestly, I find that to be very knee-jerk reactionary.  I hate the swings from the highs to the lows - unless it is warranted.  But I saw that a lot in investing, a stock with no news at all could lose or gain 10 percent in a short period of time, just because people were nervous or not.

It could be bad news about the economy.

Followed by good news.

Followed by bad news.

Followed by good news.

One could get whiplash following all that.  I see the similarities in baseball.

It is all about "what are you doing now".  Bad quarterly earnings report?  Totally negative investor vibe and stock losses.  Bad losing streak?  Total negative fan vibe, lots of bitching and moaning.

Even Keel

If you are like that, my blog is not for you.  I try to steer an even keel, but will be positive when warranted, negative when warranted.

An optimist, to me, is someone who thinks positively about the situation without considering the negatives.  That is the heart of the definition of optimist: a person disposed to take a favorable view of things."  I don't view myself that way.

If I were a doctor, I would be a horrible doctor in that I would tell people when there is no hope.  I see no gain from sugar-coating the reality.  My bluntness has been softened by years of socializing, but that's where my brain goes to first.

I present the positives mainly because the negatives are all out there and part of my assumption is that my readers know all about the negatives there, that they are savvy enough fans who do not need me to hold their hand, that they are looking for that extra edge in understanding the Giants chances for making the playoffs.

If there were relentless optimism out there, I would point out the negatives, like, we only have 4 healthy starters right now, Wilson might not get healthy anytime this season, Beltran too, someone has noticed Pablo getting fatter, we have no reliable lead-off hitter, and our offense is still sputtering.

Pitching Staff Rules!

Still, overall, there is our lovely starting pitching and great bullpen. As it showed to great effect last season and this season, we can win a lot of games despite poor offense. They averaged 3.66 RS per game the last month, yet the team still went 19-10 because they only allowed 2.07 runs per game that last month. The Pythagorean on that is 21-8, so they actually underperformed.

So about yesterday's loss by the Giants. People forget that Cain is human. People forget, but he lost a key game for us in the final series against the 'Dres last season, he did not come through for us. Of course, he really came through for us in the playoffs, spinning 21.1 IP of pure shutout gold for us in 3 starts.

That's the key to the Giants pulling the division title out of the hat this season, yeah, sometimes our pitching sucks, but more often than not, they come through big time, like the 9.1 IP of shut-out relief by the bullpen the other day or Lincecum giving up only one run in his loss.

Still, if you want to focus on the negative, the pitching has not been doing its job lately, and for a long while. Since July 3rd, the pitching had kept the opposition from scoring more than 3 runs only 23 out of 45 games, per my metric on the side. They have only been 23-22 in keeping the opposition from scoring 4 runs or more. That is why they have been 20-25 since then.

Enjoy the Ride, Enjoy the Season

Will our heroes come through? That is the drama that I enjoy, whether we make the playoffs or not. Of course, I'll be bummed, but I will have the shiny and great pitching staff plus blossoming middle lineup (Sandoval, Posey, Belt) to keep me warm for the next few seasons. As well as a shiny 2010 World Championship trophy!

So enjoy the pennant chase, Giants fans.  That is something Pirates and Royals fans have not enjoyed for nearly a generation now.

Enjoy our great pitching.  This is something that does not come around often, but when it does, you have to enjoy it.  You can bitch all you want about the offense, but remember this:  baseball is a zero sum game, any improvements in offense would have come at a cost to our pitching (and perhaps fielding too; see Keppinger).    

Think about all the fans who wanted to trade away Cain.  Think about all the fans who wanted to trade away Lincecum.  Think about all the fans who wanted to break up the pitching in order to get the offense.  Think about what won us our championship:   it was our pitching, period.

Mistakes are a Given: It is What You Do to Make up For Them

When pitching is this good, you don't need good offense, you don't even need average offense, though, obviously, that is preferable.  I would love to have great offense, but accept that this is the cost of having a great pitching staff.  The people who all point to the mistakes on offense that have occurred over the years are more OCD than I am:  mistakes will happen.

The key in any business is:  how does your strategic plan still function when mistakes are made?  Is it flexible enough to handle tactical issues, like a lot of injuries, or unexpected poor performances?

People write off unexpected good performances as luck, but the fact of the matter is that in life, there will always be unexpected good and bad performances, and they tend to balance out over time.  It has nothing to do with luck, it has to do with there being a balance in life.  Many view the unexpected good as luck, but that is how the baseball bounces sometimes, one player's good luck is another player's bad luck.  I see people noting the good luck of Burrell hitting well for us last season, but they then ignore the bad luck of Panda being Pablo instead.

And as much as injuries have hurt the Giants this season, I think that last year was very injury marred as well.  DeRosa was basically done before the season began, too bad he was too stubborn to see that and ended up starting a bunch of games before DLing.  Renteria was never really that healthy until his tendon snapped off.  Molina suffered from injuries from foul balls in May that he never recovered from, he was hitting .880 on May 12th then faded from there.  Schierholtz was injured early and he reported afterward that he came back too soon and never really fully recovered.  Franchez was injured early too and missed a number of games.  Rowand was hit in the face with a HBP, and while he hit well once he came back, he has not been the same since, he at least in his first two seasons hit well for 3-4 months before disappointing, but he hasn't been good for any extended period.  Torres missed a lot of the pennant race with his appendicitis.  Guillen was hitting .800 OPS for us for 6-7 weeks until his neck problem made him horrible for the last 1-2 weeks of the season.

There were pitcher injuries too.  Wellemeyer was injured.  Affeldt missed a while on the DL.  Runzler suffered a bad injury as well.  If I recall right, Ray also had some sort of injury.  Mota made the DL once, as well.

So it is not like we were "lucky" about injuries last season, we had a fair number of significant injuries, losing our starting LF, RF, CF, SS, 2B, plus our 3B and C were affected but not DLed, as well as a key set-up reliever, for parts of the season (most for DeRosa and Renteria, I would throw Schierholtz and Sandoval in there too).

The key is having such a good pitching staff that you can ride out a lot of problems.  When your pitching is that good, you don't need to pay that much to other teams for offense, as even average offense would actually be valuable to you.  You can make a lot of mistakes there and still win a lot of games.  Injuries in your pitching staff is covered when a good pitching is missing.  You just have to kiss a few frogs along the way.  Despite not having Wilson or Romo, the relievers have been pretty good in their stead, it hasn't been catastrophic, though they certainly could have used Wilson in yesterday's game.

Giants Appear to be Set for Future

The plan is generally working, which the Naysayers refuse to acknowledge.  Of course, that is barring catastrophic injury, but even then, we have so many that we might even be able to ride out the loss of one good pitcher.

The Giants have been averaging roughly 90 wins the past three seasons (including this one).  At some point, they must realize that luck is not the reason for all this success.  I think they are just being pig-headed, but only the truly dense can believe that they can explain away three seasons of 90 wins average as luck.  But I'm patient, I expect this to continue, then they will have no more excuses.

Not only is it working, but with a lot of young hitters coming up, the lineup looks to be cheap and good, not just average, within a couple of years, especially once Gary Brown or Francisco Peguero come up and become our lead-off hitter, while the middle is filled with Sandoval, Posey, and Belt.  That plus our pitching, assuming Neukom ponies up the money to keep everyone (which will be tough with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Wilson, Sandoval, Posey getting big dough soon), should make the 2010's the Decade of the Giants, the Team of the 2010's.

Your 2011 Giants: Need to Sweep Padres?

That's extreme, particularly since the season just started, but there are a lot of Giants fans got their 2010 World Championship t-shirts all gathered in a bunch, tortured once more.  Take a deep breath, guys and gals, there is a lot more baseball to be played, stop being like Chicken Little, convinced that the sky is falling down.

I'm already seeing fans "blaming" Bochy for putting Huff in RF.  Personally, I would have gone another route, putting Huff in LF and Rowand/Schierholtz in RF, but that is the beauty of being a fan, we don't have to deal with the touchy-feely aspects of the manager position:  things that might appear to make sense from a statistical numbers viewpoint, might not play in the clubhouse or with players' egos.  Still, it's early, and I would bet if we played 10 4-game series with the D-gers, with the same starters matching up, the Giants would probably win more of the 10 than LA would (along with the variety of splits along the way).

The thing is, if one of many errors didn't happen, the Giants would have easily split the series, and if multiple didn't happen, they would have probably swept.  That's why this game is humbling, you could be the better team in pitching and hitting, but errors can do you in.  That's why they play the games instead of having some blogger simulate the series and decide what the outcome should be.  There is a human factor that must always be expected and respected.

Thinking about this, I wonder if the players are looking ahead to returning to SF and getting their rings this coming Saturday against the Cards.  That would be only human (so is being sick, apparently Posey has been fighting a respiratory virus since the season started, though he does have a four game hitting streak so far).  If so, their play might stay sloppy until they get to play with their new bling.

Game 1:  Bumgarner vs. Harang

Madison Bumgarner: Including the playoffs, Bumgarner exceeded his previous career high for innings pitched by more than 70. This is reason enough for the Giants to stay on their five-man rotation, even with five April off-days, thus insuring that he gets rest.

Aaron Harang: Harang, the San Diego native, returns home where he hopes to find PETCO Park much more forgiving than Great American Ball Park. The Padres have fixed some mechanical things in his delivery, and he's looked good this spring.

Bumgarner in his first season had a 50% DOM with a 22% DIS in 18 starts.  That's excellent for any starter over a full season.  And he got worse as the season went on, for as the Giants noted early on, he didn't come to spring training ready to play baseball, which was understandable, he just got married plus his older sister passed away suddenly as well, but still he wasn't physically ready and that lack of conditioning appeared to wear him down as the season went deeper than he's ever gone before.

Still, he's what I like to call (and seen call) "country strong" and once he had time to rest up during the playoffs (Posey noted he was gassed too until the playoffs gave him some days off to recuperate and reinvigorate), he obviously was fine, particularly in his historic World Series start.  And he did well this spring training, coming in good shape this time, and doing well, peripherals-wise, with 31 strikeouts vs. only 8 walks, in 27.1 IP; only problem was the homerun ball with 4 and a huge BABIP (dry AZ air messes with pitchers' breaking pitches, resulting in an ERA of 5.93 for the spring.  If he can keep up the 31 strikeouts and 8 walks in 27.1 IP but with a normal BABIP during the season, I would be very happy, he should have a Cy Young-type of season to bookend the rotation with Lincecum.

Harang, on the other hand, has been in decline over the past 3 seasons.  First he started giving up a lot more disaster starts, going from a killer 62% DOM/6% DIS in 2007 to 55%/24% in 2008, then steadied at 58%/19% in 2009, then the bottom dropped out last season, 40%/45%.  Of course, injuries contributed to that as well, as his number of starts dropped from 34 in 2007, to 29 in 2008, to 26 in 2009, and 20 in 2010.  It appears his years as the ace of the staff, throwing 34 starts per year caught up with him. 

It is Harang's first start for his childhood team, and so he hopes to do well.  Projections appear to think that he can bounce back big time this season.  Still, the expectation is not at the ace level that the pitcher he replaced in the rotation - Jon Garland - did last season, representing a regression for the SD rotation versus last season, though if he delivers an ERA close to 4 with a full season of starts, they would be very happy. 

Harang's top tormenter on the Giants roster right now is, surprisingly, Mike Fontenot, so don't be surprised to see him get a start:  over last 5 seasons, .350 BA in 20 AB, 3 HR and 7 RBIs.  Must have been in Cincy.  Otherwise, most of the roster has either not done well and/or didn't see a lot of ABs against him, not unusual since the Giants only see Cincy in two series each season and he don't always pitches in each series.  Posey has, though, in one great game.

But Bumgarner has a 2.11 ERA in his three starts in four appearances against SD in his career.  And 1.00 ERA in SD in one start in two appearances in PETCO.  Only Chase Headley has done really well against Madison so far.  With a worse offense now than before, Bumgarner should handle them even better than before, so while the game will probably be close, I think the Giants should win this one.

Game 2: Lincecum vs. Stauffer

Tim Lincecum: Lincecum excelled in his 2011 debut, yielding an unearned run in seven innings on Opening Day at Los Angeles. His most recent PETCO Park appearance was also impressive: a seven-inning effort that included a two-run single in a 6-1 win last Sept. 12.

Tim Stauffer: Stauffer got a no-decision on Opening Day against the Cardinals, though he pitched well -- six innings, two earned runs. He did allow nine hits, but mostly avoided trouble. He was helped by three double plays turned behind him.

Lincecum was excellent in his first start after early jitters where he gave up a lot of baserunners but no runs.  Only an error marred his start and resulted in a loss for them.  While Stauffer pitched well in the Opening Day start and last season when they finally put him in the starting rotation, Lincecum has a 2.08 ERA against the 'Dres in his career, and 1.88 ERA in PETCO. 

Timmy also came into spring training in great shape and while most reports had his fastballs losing velocity to start last season, he was consistently hitting mid-90's in his first start, an auspicious beginning:  improved conditioning coming into camp, increased velocity, added new effective slider to repertoire at the end of last season that will help him get out left-handed hitters, to go with his devastating changeup which helps him get out right-handed hitters, and a little chip on his shoulder about how poorly he pitched in 2010 relative to his Cy Young seasons.  I think the Giants should win this one too.

Giants Thoughts

People note the Giants winning in the last game of the season last year, but SD lost by one game and jettisoned one of their better starting pitchers in Jon Garland and, more importantly, in my eyes, their best hitter in Adrian Gonzalez. Meanwhile, they acquired a bunch of question marks like Jason Barlett and Cameron Maybin, in hopes that they can figure things out in 2011 and deliver. The problem is that with the twin loss of Garland and A-Gon, they really need all of their question marks to work for them to come close to replacing what they lost. I don't expect them to be competitive for the title this season, as I noted in another post, SD was lucky to be in the position they were in at the end of 2010, not the Giants, who should have won going away instead of the last day.

Looking at Baseball HQ's projections, they only see Brad Hawpe even coming close to hitting 800 OPS (they have him at .794 OPS), and they don't see him playing full-time. The next highest projection out of players with over 400 projected AB is Ryan Ludwick at .749 OPS and Chase Headley at .734 OPS. Maybin they project .728 OPS (only .322 OBP) and Barlett at .698 OPS. Even Orlando Hudson, their new 2B, is not that good, only .695 OPS.  Their lineup is even worse than what the Giants had in 2009 and we at least had a great hitting Kung Fu Panda.

And while Harang is projected at a 3.98 ERA in 28 starts, LeBlanc is projected at 4.40 ERA and Richard at 4.13 ERA, both good, but just not as good as 2010.  Richard had 3.75 ERA in 2010, and LeBlanc didn't even make the starting rotation, he was sent back down to the minors.  The rotation is Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley, and Aaron Harang, and once Mat Latos comes off the DL, he would rejoin the rotation. 

And for all the talk about the Giants pitchers suffering some sort of hangover due to the number of extra innings pitched due to the playoffs, they are all in the starting rotation now and Latos is out on the DL due to a strained right shoulder, after pitching more innings in 2010 than he ever did before.  Maybe he strained it writing "I have SF" on those baseballs for a charity auction. Richard is another I noted last season (as well as LeBlanc) who might have problems after pitching a lot more innings than ever before.  The Giants at least has a history of guiding their pitchers through that jump without any physical problems cropping up.

And Moseley is a 29 YO journeyman reliever/starter who doesn't strike out very many batters and I have to question whether he's physically ready to start for a whole season, he has only relieved in recent seasons, and the most IP is the 92 he threw in 2007.   And he is right now their #3 starter in the rotation. 

Of course, the Giants probably should have dominated them last season as well but ended up 6-12 against them.  Outside of their games together, the Giants were 86-58 (28 games above .500) and the 'Dres were 78-66 (12 games above .500).  And you never know with a 2 game series, a key error (again) could cost us a game. 

It looks like the Giants should at minimum split this series and with a bit of scoring, sweep the two game series. 

Don't Worry, Be Happy 2010 World Champions

I'm not worried yet about the Giants, too early in the season for that.  I don't like seeing errors like that, but I don't think that this will be the pattern for the season, as I expect Bochy to lean more towards defense than offense as the season progresses.  We have also been handicapped offensively because Buster Posey has been struggling physically with a respiratory virus and I assume his strength and stamina has been sapped a lot.  And the water buffaloes have been struggling offensively too, as well as defensively, as both Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff have been struggling with the bat as well, meaning the heart of our lineup has not been producing at all so far.  Any team's offense would sputter if their heart wasn't hitting.

I've been seeing a lot of tweets about the increase in offense this season, that perhaps the ball has been juiced again (see High Boskage House's excellent analysis into the offensive era and how PEDs were not the cause, but that the only logical conclusion is that the ball has been juiced for many years; he also researched PEDs and concluded that they could not have had much of an effect).  Offense had died down a bit the last couple of seasons, making me think that Selig swapped out the juiced ball so that MLB management can point to their sham of a drug testing program and say, "See, it's working."  But if offense is up, Selig appears ready to move on from the "steroid" era and bring back the long-ball, though it is still early to say anything definitively yet.

And as backward as this may sound, that only makes the Giants pitchers that much more valuable because pitchers who can dominate a game and keep even the good hitters down regularly will be that much more rarer and in demand.  And we have four starters capable of doing that in any particular game.  And Barry Zito is pretty good himself, relative to the rest of the majors.  If Zack Wheeler starts out the season on fire, dominating in San Jose by mid-season, plus the Giants are leading comfortably in the NL West, I can see the Giants shopping a starting pitcher (most probably Jonathan Sanchez) to refill the farm system with some primo prospects. 
In any case, I'm still feeling good about the 2011 Giants.  Our pitching looks pretty great again, probably even better than 2010 with an improved Lincecum, more mentally strong Sanchez, and Bumgarner over a full season, and the whole bullpen for a whole season.  And I do like our offense, particularly with Pablo Sandoval hitting well again.  Things will even out and they will start winning and fans will start to calm down.

Naysayers Running Out of Things to Complain About

Particularly the Sabean Naysayers.  They just haven't mentally processed this yet, and maybe never will, but they didn't think the Giants could possibly win the World Series with that offense, and yet they did.  What does that say about their knowledge of how offense and winning happens in baseball? 

Yet I still see them out there, complaining already about Bochy and Sabean, or giving back-handed compliments:  "Yeah, they won, but I still don't think they know how to create a good offense."  I expect a much better offense this season with Sandoval and Posey leading the way and, as been happening the past few seasons, another of the Naysayers' But's about Sabean will fall by the wayside. 

Until:  The San Francisco Giants:  Team of the 2010's decade.

All I can say is that I've been enjoying the past two seasons.  I knew things were going to be pretty good as long as there were no devastating injury and players performed as expected.  The Naysayers meanwhile have been burning a hole in their GI tract with all the extra stomach acid they have been generating from the "torture". 

Winning is not torture, torture is knowing you are going to lose but you have no idea when it will ever get better, where winning is seemingly random.  That's how it was from the early 1970's to until Brian Sabean took over.  And if I saw a return to that mediocre era, I would be the first to toss Sabean out the door.

But I don't see it happening anytime soon.  Each season, the team has looked better and better, and the management has been pulling the right strings at the right time.  They have been golden in their picks, with Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, Wheeler, Belt, and I think Brown too.  And it looks like it will continue to incrementally improve over the next few seasons, as Brandon Belt eventually works his way into the heart of the lineup, as Zack Wheeler works his way up to the majors, as Gary Brown works his way up to batting lead-off and playing CF for us, as Nick Noonan and Charlie Culberson take over as middle infielders for us, as another of our nice crop of pitchers acquired in the draft develop. 

All you need to do is add the money to hold the team together for as long as possible - which I now see as viable since it was reported by Baggarly that Neukom is worth at least $500M (now I'm no longer aggitating for a new, richer owner) - and that will lead to the Giants being the team of this decade.  It is all falling into place and I am terribly excited over the Giants prospects for the next decade or so.