2011 Arbitration Cases and Non-Tenders

The Giants decision on arbitrations tenders were released (Hank Schulman and Carl Steward).

As many expected, the Giants tendered outfielders Cody Ross and Andres Torres, starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and relief pitchers Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez.  The Giants usually come to an agreement with almost every player that are arbitration eligible, so this is just a formality for that process to hold their rights on the players.  The only ones that I can remember going to arbitration was A.J. Pierzitski and, of course, they almost went to it with Tim Lincecum last off-season.

The Giants also announced that they signed Mike Fontenot to a one year contract.  Schulman reported that it was for slightly over $1M; I think that is about what he got last season, I thought he might get as high as $1.5M, but maybe he wants to stay.  Sabean noted that he would be getting some looks at SS and be a backup there as well as 2B.

Oddly enough, they also announced that Eugenio Velez was also non-tendered.  He was not arbitration eligible, according to the report, but apparently the Giants wanted the spot on the 40-man for other purposes. Shulman noted a number of factors in this decision: his 40-man spot, that he's out of options and not expected to make the team, even the raise he'd be due by rule if he cleared waivers and was sent to Fresno.

Schulman also reported that Ray and Velez might be re-signed to minor league deals.  I don't really see that happening.  Velez can see how crowded the OF and 2B is on the Giants (particularly once Belt pushes Huff to LF), and as much as he might want to stay, his agent should be advising him to look elsewhere.  Ray could like it enough to stay, but he's a former closer and he wasn't that bad last season, so I think there would be other teams interested in him.  Perhaps he and the Giants have a handshake deal to do this to open a spot to enable the Giants to add another free agent, as desired, with the understanding that they will work it out for him to be on 25-man to start 2011 season.  A signal for this would be a split contract with a minor league salary and a major league salary if he makes the team.  We'll see.

Your 2010 Giants are 8-7: Dodging Some Cards

A large proportion of the Giants fan base are in a tailspin over this road trip, and particularly the 3 game sweep by the lowly (but now leading) 'Dres.  However, at the start of the season, if a Giants fan were told the following, we would be "OK, that sounds about right":

• The Giants are 8-7
• The pitching has been great
• The offense has failed the pitching on numerous occasions
• Panda is our leading hitter; Lincecum is our leading pitcher
• Bowker and Wellemeyer have been struggling to perform

I'm not saying that everything's great but I am also not saying that it's the end of the world, as one bad stretch caused a lot of the Sabean Naysayers to crawl out into the daylight and complain their familiar drone.

The problem seems pretty clear, as far as the recent drop in offense:  nobody was getting on base ahead of Pablo, killing potential rallies and opportunities to score first and put the other team on their heels.

As I discussed in a previous post, I like to look at what I call Offense Wins and Pitching Wins (more accurately, it is defense, but I think pitching is the key to our wins in that regard), where if the offense scores 4 runs or more are counted as offense wins and if the pitching can keep the runs allowed to 4 runs or less are counted as pitching wins.

Offense Wins:  9-6
Pitching Wins:  11-4

So, overall, both have done well, but with small samples, the mix ended up as 8-7 instead, with the 10-8 loss to the D-gers the most egregious blown opportunity.

Unfortunately, they cannot hope to get much better soon, even though they start a 9 game homestand, as they are facing the Cards, Phillies and Colorado.

Game 1:  Jaime Garcia vs. Tim Lincecum

Jaime has been on the verge of breaking out and appears to be doing it this season:  0.69 ERA so far this season.  However, his K/BB ratio is only 2.0 and his K/9 is only 6.9 K/9, and the key to his success is that his BABIP is .152, so he should eventually regress to the .300 mean.  However, he's been doing it with extreme amounts of ground balls (3.14 this season).  However, a look at his minor league stats suggest that he is not one to avoid the .300 regression to the mean (.308 BABIP career minors).

And, of course, he's going up against the one pitcher (probably) that has an even lower ERA in Lincecum.   Still, the offense has been sputtering and thus it should be a low scoring game all around and Bochy will need to do something to shake things up and get the offense going.  Yesterday, he moved DeRosa up to the #2 spot, and he got two hits there, but then the rest of the lineup was cold except when Pablo hit that huge (though solo) homer.

In addition, Garcia is a LHP, and the Giants have been struggling against them.  This probably means and OF of DeRosa, Torres, Schierholtz and IF of Sandoval, Renteria, Uribe, and Huff.  The good news is that Huff has been hitting very well at home as well as against LHP, and Schierholtz has been hitting LHP well too.  Unfortunately, the offense will probably be crippled by Torres and Renteria up top, as neither have been doing the job for most of this short season so far.

Bochy will probably leave Torres leading off because there is no prototypical  guy, but maybe he'll go with DeRosa #2 again because of his success yesterday and place Renteria 8th.  Or even Renteria leadoff and Torres 8th, that might be better right now, Torres has done nothing so far, even less than Renteria has since his hot streak, and that takes some doing.  We should win but the way things are going, I would put it even.

Game 2:  Adam Wainwright vs. Barry Zito

Wainwright had an incredible season in 2009 and yet has improved on that with a 1.50 ERA.  Zito had an amazing season (for himself) in 2009, and yet has improved on that in 2010 with a 1.86 ERA.  It's going to be a tough battle between two pitchers who are very on so far.  First one to blink is the loser, but given that they have Albert Pujols on their side, I would have to lean towards the Cards in this match-up.

Game 3:  Brad Penny vs. Matt Cain

Brad Penny continues the gauntlet:  1.29 ERA thus far.  Cain has been his normal good self, with a 3.86 ERA, which suggests that we could end up on the short end of the stick here.  Still, Penny is not THAT good, and Cain has actually improved on his walk rate over last year, so this should also be a good battle.

Giants Thoughts

Normally, going back home would cure what ails for a team, but the Cards are no ordinary opponent, with a pitching staff that is humming along even better than our rotation (see how their #5 Jaime Garcia is doing versus our's) and a lineup that includes Pujols and Holliday.  Things do not look good for this series and the Phillies follow them, then Colorado.  At least Colorado is muddling along like we are, so they will probably be our best beat to break out of our current offensive funk.  The Giants would be lucky to finish 3-3 against the Cards and Phillies, then hopefully can grab 2 of 3 from the D-Rox.

The Giants need somebody in the lineup to step forward and break the team out of its funk.  Ideally, it would be someone atop the lineup.  A hotter Huff would work too, but he's been about what we could hope for, so that is why I think someone up top needs to heat up, who would then be followed by Sandoval and Huff.  Schierholtz has been hot, but his contributions have been muted by a bottom of lineup position.  If he were moved up and he stayed hot, that could be the trigger we need.

Some, predictably, are clamoring for Posey to join the team.  The problem is that we need a CF.  In addition, he is not doing that well in the minors, at least not well enough to say he's a sure thing to hit well in the majors immediately.  His MLE is .291/.361/.400/.761, which is good if he were catching, adequate most anywhere else, and borderline at 1B (Huff is hitting slightly better at .268/.369/.411/.780).  He is no cure-all for our offense, and could hobble it further if he struggles in his initial games like Matt Wieters did last season.

The CF who are the closest are Ben Copeland, Mike McBryde, and Darren Ford.  None of them are hitting particularly well, though Ford looks like he's perking up.  Copeland is doing OK for AAA; those numbers would be more than acceptable if he were able to duplicate them in the majors, but most likely it will take a steep plunge.  McBryde is horrible for any league.  Ford can't even hit what Copeland is hitting and he's at a lower level hitting against easier pitching.  Apparently his great spring is not translating to AA.  Plus Copeland and McBryde are not on the 40-man roster either.

I don't know how Schierholtz or Bowker would work off defensively in CF, but Nate has some speed (he has stolen double digit bases regularly in the minors) and Bowker played CF in AA and was positive defensively there in around 20+ games played.  DeRosa, Bowker, Schierholtz might be better than starting Velez or Torres in CF and the leadoff spot right now.

In any case, I would rather see Bowker get regular ABs based on what he did in AAA last season than to give it to a journeyman like Torres or a player who hasn't done it at any level consistently for a season, like Velez, while Rowand is out (can be back May 2nd I believe).  I'm still not sure where all the love is coming from for Velez, some see him as a 5-tool guy but I've really only seen the one tool, speed and SB, and even there he is borderline bad, 73% success rate, so he's not even using his speed correctly.

However, we will probably see a lot more of Velez, Torres, and probably Bowker too, because when Sanchez is finally ready to start at 2B, the Giants will need to drop someone off the 25 man roster, and they are the prime candidates right now.  Velez (according to Baggarly) still has an option;  so does Bowker.  Torres would have to be exposed to waivers, but I doubt anyone would claim him right now.

2010: Two Weeks of Spring to Go, Roster-bastion

With two weeks to go to the season opener, I thought I would take a look at the 25 man roster and how that is shaping up.

Spots Locked Up

• Tim Lincecum


• Barry Zito


• Matt Cain


• Jonathan Sanchez


• Brian Wilson


• Jeremy Affeldt


• Sergio Romo


• Brandon Medders


• Dan Runzler: continues to leave no doubts that he's here to stay and perhaps could be a future closer.


• Bengie Molina: he has had a hot spring, hoping to show that he's worth the money he signed for, saying all the right things about him and Posey. And, showing support for a fellow Latino in a new job and trying to impress, he says that he is listening to Bam-Bam Meulen's instruction to lay off pitches and take more walks: he has picked up 3 already, which is pretty good for him, he normally would have 1, at best.


• Aubrey Huff: has been one of the team's best hitters this spring, but unfortunately not one of their best or even average defenders. It was his struggles there that made the impetus to play Posey at 1B seem more acute for fans and the return of Ishikawa to the team and the roster more important. But he leads the team in homers (tied with Lewis) and SLG plus taking a lot of walks while keeping his strikeouts low, all great signs. And a recent article notes improvements in his defense, as well as his view that it was a bum rap that stuck with him. Still, looking at his UZR/150 on fangraphs, he was rated as costing his team nearly half a win with his defense at 1B - slightly below average but still not that good. In comparison, Ishikawa's defense last year over a full season would contribute 2 wins to the Giants. The key whether he makes up for that difference is how he handles AT&T's tendency to destroy the ISO and SLG for left-handed hitters. I also hope that he can pass on some vet savvy to Ishikawa regarding hitting, he is stil the future 1B for 2011, at least for the moment.


• Juan Uribe: given the starting 2B spot in Sanchez's absence, but not doing so well this spring, he's going to have to hit much better once the season starts, or the Giants could start DeRosa there instead and give starts to Lewis in LF instead, given how well Lewis has been hitting.


• Pablo Sandoval: took a gash on his leg that took 5 stitches, but he should be ready to play once the season start. He's not hitting that well this spring (though great for power), but his numbers would change dramatically with just one or two extra hits instead of outs, so I'm not worried.


• Edgar Renteria: has not been hitting great, but with so few AB in spring (34 so far, but among the leaders), one extra hit separates him from his current .265/.306/.353/.659 batting line and a .294/.335/.382/.717 batting line (before today's game), which is OK for OBP. Not the greatest, but his swing is cleaner this spring and he's able to extend his arms, which will allow him to slash line drives towards right field. I am still hopeful for him to return to his career norms in 2010, and he's been warming up, he is 8 for 23 in his last 7 games, including his first XBH of spring (2B today and HR on Sat), roughly .348/.375/.522/.897 for that short stretch. If he can return to the plus hitter he was before, our offense will be much improved.


• Mark DeRosa: held off from playing games because of his surgery recovery, he hasn't played many games, nor as been doing much in those games, mainly in the power department, which is one strong reason why we got him. Hopefully his power returns soon.


• Aaron Rowand: hitting .500 and looking good overall, except for his injury (always a worry with him).

That is 16 spots locked up, leaving 9 spots open still.

Spots Pretty Much Locked Up

This is where it gets more interesting.

• Nate Schierholtz: out of options, they would lose him if they should cut him, so he's at least got a bench OF job, at minimum. By hitting for more power this spring, despite his low batting average, his OPS is in the mid-700's, doable for winning RF, I think, despite how well Torres is doing. He should be our starting RF at the start of the 2010 season.


• Travis Ishikawa: out of options but more importantly, the only major league ready (and viable) option at 1B right now (Brett Pill is reportedly pretty good defensively too, but was only in AA last season and only did OK there; he will have to hit a lot better to start in the majors) that the Giants can go to if Aubrey Huff's decline in 2009 continues. Huff's spring suggests otherwise, but still, he's only signed for one year and his defense is reportedly mediocre, at best, meaning there appears to be a great need for a good defensive 1B to come in for Huff at the end of close games. Ishikawa appars to be that guy.
• Todd Wellemeyer: signed to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, he has made the most of his opportunities, pitching himself onto the team, for the most part, barring any late spring meltdown. Recent reports stated that his 2009 problems were related to a dead arm from throwing so much in 2008, so he worked out more this off-season to get himself ready to pitch strongly throughout the season. He now says he feels like he did two years ago with a 3.71 ERA. And Molina noticed the difference in stuff too, how he's more like 2008 than 2009. He should be the 5th starter, though he might start the year as long relief, depending on how the Giants handle the 5th starter, as they could decide to skip the 5th starter until late April.

Remaining Spots

Even more intriguing is who will win the final spots.

• Long Relief - Pucetas?: As noted, there is no need for a long reliever if the 5th starter is not used until late April. I go back and forth on that, as I think Kevin Pucetas earned a spot, but I'm thinking that instead of sitting him on the bench during the season, they are going to let Pucetas start regularly in AAA and show that his improvements in spring is a long-term improvement, so that if the Giants should need to bring him up, due to whatever reasons, he'll be prepared to come up and start. May as well keep him conditioned to be a starter.
• Long Relief: That leaves a spot from someone else, which I think they will give to an experienced reliever, which is a position they stated a number of times this off-season. Contenders include Guillermo Moto (not doing well so far, walking a lot, 5 appearances), Santiago Casilla (came in late), and Denny Bautista (doing very well in 7 appearances). Tony Pena has also done well too, but he hasn't pitched much yet (3.2 IP in 4 games) so his chances are slimmer. Joe Martinez was hampered by his injury, which still appears to be affecting him, so he'll probably end up in AAA. Bautista would appar to be the front-runner for this position at the moment, but a reliever's performance is notoriously variable because of the few opportunities to show what they got and the large amount of randomness that affects their performance, so I would say that it's still up in the air and the winner will probably be someone doing well in the next two weeks.
• Last Middle Relief spot: I think that this spot will go to a worthy internal prospect. Waldis Joaquin came in as the likely filler of this spot but has not done that well, giving up a lot of hits while not strking out many (1 in 7.2 IP). With his velocity, he should be striking out bunches of guys. Kind of like how Alex Hinshaw has been doing, he looks like he could grab this spot (5 appearances, 3.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts, 0 R/ER). Henry Sosa has also done well but he's probably going to AAA this season, as he was in AA last season, and I think they still want to see if he can make it as a starter. It is possible that they could decide to go with two experienced relievers, but if Hinshaw continues to do so well, I don't see how he wouldn't win this spot right now.
• Backup Catcher: I would think Whiteside got the job. I think the Giants have been pushing Posey as a possibility so that they have an excuse to play Posey with the major leaguers all spring and give him more experience against major leaguers plus better evaluate where he is relative to major leaguers, but then make him one of the last cuts, saying he's our future starting catcher and we need to get him ready for that by starting regularly at catcher in AAA and gaining more experience that way. Then he can come up mid-season, he won't be a Super-Two, he would have played a lot of games, but not enough to tire him out, and would be a great bat off the bench while also resting Molina at catcher, picking up a few starts at 1B to get his bat in the lineup, and being a great bat off the bench during the pennant chase. He would also be a great bat to have off the bench if we made the playoffs, as they are hoping/planning for. His bat looks ready this spring though, which is the great news.
• Three Bench Backup Spots - Outfield Possibilities: With DeRosa able to play the entire infield (remember, he has played at 2B, 3B, and SS regularly in the majors, coming up as a SS, and there was initial talk that he would play 1B when he was signed) and the way OFs are hitting, I think that two spots will go to OF (Fred Lewis and Andre Torres). Bowker, despite his homer yesterday, has not been hitting that well plus has been striking out a lot; with an option still, he's slated for AAA, I think, and not the bench, so that he can play regularly, show that 2009 was not a fluke, and be ready to come up in case of injury or Schierholtz not performing. Velez is doing well, but not as well as Torres or Lewis, and he still has an option, so I also think he's slated for AAA so that he can play regularly, show improvement over 2009, and be ready to come up in case of injury or lack of performance from Schierholtz or even Torres or Lewis at some point, if they are not performing. Perhaps even further injuries at 2B for Sanchez. They both need to show that they are not AAAA players like Todd Linden and Lance Niekro. They both needed to hit a lot better in spring to earn a spot on the 25-man to start the season. I thought Torres was gone this season, but he has just been hitting too well to not get a spot. I don't think the Giants are going to trade Lewis, as most people have been speculating, he's been hitting too well to not hold onto and see what happens with Schierholtz in RF, in case DeRosa starts out slow in LF due to the surgery or whatever, say, if any injury happens.
• 25th Man on the Roster: I thought Frandsen was going to get this spot, particularly with Freddie Sanchez now looking to be out for a full month but it looks like Matt Downs is going to take that last spot on the bench with his great hitting, constrasted with Frandsen's very poor hitting. Downs can play 2B and 3B, probably 1B and LF in a pinch, and SS would be covered by Uribe sliding over from 2B or even DeRosa playing a few innings there, as he was a SS when he started out in the majors, and he has played 139 games there, started 79 times, compiling 829.2 innings at SS, roughly 90+ full games. He wasn't the greatest but adequate there, though at 35, probably only good for filler in a long game. Bowker could make a push to get this spot will a spirited run in the last two weeks, but as I noted, I think it would be more prudent to keep his bat ready in AAA to come up and start if necessary, plus let him show that 2009 is the new improved Bowker and not a fluke over the 2008 Bowker. Downs looks like the favorite now but there's still two weeks, plenty of time for someone to surge and take him on.

Giants Thoughts

The roster is still in a state of some flux, though all the major starting positions are pretty much settled, with Schierholtz and Wellemeyer looking like they have grabbed the final spots. Bench spots have been much more in play than I had thought, with great performances from Hinshaw, Pucetas, Lewis, Torres, and Downs.

Todd Wellemeyer has done a lot better than I had thought he would, given his career numbers. Even his good 2008 season was a bit flukey, resulting in a mid-4 FIP, offset by his poor 2009, which also again was a mid-4 FIP (FIP is basically what his ERA should be given his pitching peripherals, BABIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate, HR/flyball). Still, that's plenty good for the 5th starter, most teams end up with guys in the mid-5's and 6's pitching 5th for them. He should win a lot of games for us pitching in the back of the rotation.

The Giants offense looks like it will do OK once we get into the regular season, though that is obviously not set in stone. Rowand looks ready to leadoff again and Huff looks ready to supply the power to drive him in. I think Sandoval will be fine once we reach the regular season, he's been suffering from some balls not falling in as they usually do, but has shown the power that is needed in the 3rd spot. Renteria, as noted, not that far away from getting on base regularly for the guys in the middle.

DeRosa is the big question mark out of them, batting 5th but showing little power thus far in spring. However, he could just be starting out slow due to not being able to get into games until much later. And at least he is hitting well (.300) and getting on base (.364). I'm not too worried about him, I think he's going to be fine once we hit the regular season. Plus, even if he's starts off well, I think Lewis will eventually work his way regularly in starts in LF against RHP, as DeRosa is not the best against them. If he's cold, Lewis could see more starts early on.

Molina is most probably our 6th or 7th hitter, where he should have been hitting all the time he has been with us. He is ideal for that position, don't strike out much, hits for a good average and with some power, which would drive in runs. His inability to take walks don't hurt as much batting 6th (or 7th), as most teams don't expect their bottom order players to score a lot of runs.

Uribe is probably the 6th or 7th hitter while he is starting, depending on matchups and prior history, flip-flopping with Molina. People like Uribe, but his years of poor hitting discourages me from being on his bandwagon. I think a very slow start could push DeRosa to 2B and Lewis to LF, plus get Downs some starts at 2B.

Nate Schierholtz will probably end up 8th, at least initially. Though, since that is a tough position to hit at, they could put him 7th while batting one of the vets (Molina, Uribe) 8th. If he hits like I think he can, I think he can force his way into the top of the order, perhaps 2nd because of his speed, I can even see him batting 3rd, pushing everyone down one, if he is doing well and Huff is struggling in the cleanup spot. If he gets off to a poor start, however, it will be like Lewis all over again in 2009: he'll be benched while the Giants experiment with others to see what happens. However, with only Downs as a player with an option to send down, assuming the bench plays out as I noted above, there should not be a lot of yo-yo-ing in 2010 unless someone without options is traded. But I think he'll be able to hit more than adequately for a bottom-order hitter, the key question is whether he can hit as well as the average RF. He'll have to put into use his off-season instructions on taking pitches and swinging for more power to do that.

And whether that offense will be enough to win with our pitching and fielding is another key question. Lincecum and Cain pitched great last season, and that is not something we can count on for certain, as pitchers' performances are affected greatly by random luck. But Zito and Sanchez showed potential for doing better in 2010 than 2009, and Wellemeyer looks more like his 2008 incarnation than his 2009 this spring, and that would be an improvement over our last starter spot in 2009, occupied by Johnson, Sadowski, Martinez, and Penny. The bullpen lost Howry and Miller but looks stronger with Runzler in there plus maybe Hinshaw and a vet.

And the fielding takes a hit with Huff, but could stay about the same with Schierholtz in RF, gain from DeRosa in LF, and improve from Sandoval's intense practicing at 3B. Rowand also talked about getting himself into shape this off-season (finally, you would think a $60M contract would kick a gamer in the ass to do all he can, NOW) and being ready to play a full season, as he petered out greatly in the second half the two seasons he has been with the Giants. That should help his fielding as well as his hitting. Sanchez, once he is ready to play, should be able to match the defense at 2B, which was part Burriss, Uribe, and Velez, and part him.

And Renteria should see some improvement in this plays at SS now that the huge foreign object is out of his elbow, as that probably affected most of his throws, particularly those to his right where he needs to put more zip on it to get the batter out (the word - and the stats - showed that he had problems with balls to his right). I think overall the Giants should be about the same, down mainly to Ishikawa being replaced by Huff, but with Ishikawa coming in frequently at 1B for late game defense, the fielding defense will not be so down on an overall basis, while getting a big boost from Huff's offense.

Meanwhile, the other NL West Contenders have their own problems that they need to solve if they are to battle for the division title themselves, giving hope to Giants fans that any offensive and defensive problems would not necessarily cost the team a chance to compete:

• D-Rox, who I view as our strongest competitor, because of their pitching and offense, was hoping that Jeff Francis could come in and replace Jason Marquis production, which was a key part of their 2009 success. He has a 6.92 ERA in 4 starts, 13.0 IP, though that's worse than his 5 walks and 9 strikeouts would suggest. Still, that's not good enough production to replace Marquis.
• The D-gers need to replace Lowe's production, and Padilla has been good to great up to now in spring, but was never that great over a full season prior in his career, except for his first full season, back 8 years ago. Even then, he's never struck out so many (high K/9 for LA in 2009) in any season in his career. In addition, Manny stating it is his last year in LA and the divorce between the owner and his wife who was running the team, accused of having an affiar with a D-ger employee, could disrupt their 2010 season. Plus, they still need a 5th starter and picked up Jeff Weaver as a hopeful there (9.00 ERA) and Furcal is still not hitting. Plus, they need to replace Hudson's production at 2B, with Belliard and DeWitt as two unlikely possibilities. Too many question marks in my mind to say for sure that they got the title again.
• The D-backs were hoping that Webb would be back to his old form, and he's having problems still getting healthy. In addition, they traded for Edwin Jackson and he just has not had it this spring, plus need a fifth starter as well. Offensively, they all look as strong as ever.
• The 'Dres I thought had a dark horse chance to do well in 2010 and contend, assuming continued A-Gon brilliance and development among their strong set of prospects, like Blanks, Headley, Venable, Antonelli, Latos, but rumors persist that they are trying to trade A-Gon, and if A-Gon is traded, their pennant chances are a-gone.

So the Giants look like they are going to be able to hold their own this season and be competitive most of the season. Their lineup, based on projections and the lineup calculator, looks like it will be good enough to win 90 games if the pitching and fielding are as good in preventing runs in 2010 as they were in 2009. Right now, I think the Giants can be pretty close to what they did last season in that department, and therefore be somewhere in the neighborhood of 90 wins (which they were in 2009 with 88) for 2010. That's not going to win a pennant for sure, but at least we'll be competitive.

I also think that we will get boosts later in the season from Posey and Bumgarner, and perhaps Neal or Sosa. They could provide the edge we need to push it to the top this season.

Go Giants!

Baggarly FanFest Fountain of InFormation and Glossary

I'll start out with the glossary. People have asked for a glossary but I just haven't made time to put one together. However, lucky for me and you all, the group that created the terminology and methhodologies that I base a lot of my analysis on put out a page of definitions and stuff and the link is here. I'll put the link on the side until I can create a more comprehensive one for all the terms I use here.

Unfortunately, they didn't cover BABIP: Batting Average on Balls In Play is also called by Hit rate by some. This is the percent of balls hit into the field of play that fall for hits, which means that you subtract out all homeruns and strikeouts, as neither ends up as a ball hit into the field of play. Pitchers then to regress to the league average of roughly .300 while hitters tend to regress to their own historical three-year mean.

FanFest Fun Facts

Andy Baggarly hits a homerun again with his reporting, I love reading his blog.

• Biggest news: Giants are not against Buster Posey starting the season in the majors. They are talking about giving Buster opportunities to play other infield positions, mostly first base, in order to give them more opportunity to start Posey when Molina is starting at catcher. But for those wanting to start Posey elsewhere, Bochy made it clear that the Giants sees Posey as a catcher long-term. As Baggarly notes, the odds still favor Posey in AAA to start, and I would agree, as that would give him more experience starting at catcher plus allow the team to gain another year of control. Assuming he kills AAA pitching, mid-year, maybe in July, they bring him up to be the backup, starting at catcher 1-2 games a week to give Molina a rest, then in other games, he could start at 1B or other positions to get more starts (and to get his bat into the lineup).
• Also big news: the Giants are not in a position to have to cut any salary should Lincecum win the arbitration hearing, which would be $13M, $5M more than the $8M offered by the Giants.
• Lincecum noted also that he would not have any hard feelings from the arbitration hearing, as he will be attended, which is not required of players. I doubt the Giants are going to try to bring up negatives, he won 2 Cy Youngs after all and is "The Franchise", so I would expect more that the hearing will be a dry dissertation on the history of salaries in the MLB in arbitration, covering pitchers vs. hitters and Ryan Howard's biggest award. If the Giants were to bring up any negatives, then I would think that they are being pretty stupid, but I don't expect them to, because, unless many others, I don't think Sabean is that stupid.
• Unsurprisingly, Bochy noted that RF would be the biggest battle of the spring, which makes sense because it's the only position without a starter, and Bumgarner seems to remain on the fast track to the #5 starter spot. It is not clear if Bochy said this or if Baggarly is noting this, but Bowker, Schierholtz, and Velez were mentioned as the leading candidates.
• Bochy also confirmed that he's leaning towards batting Rowand lead-off and making Bumgarner the 5th starter. I am OK with Rowand starting, but I hope the Giants would re-think Bumgarner being the 5th starter. We can get another year of control by letting him prove himself in AAA for a couple of months, then if the 5th starter isn't doing the job in June/July, then bring him up. But without even semi-OK starters in camp, it looks like Bumgarner got the job unless he stinks it up or if someone really shines. I'm also worried about his late season drop in velocity and would rather he start in AAA, where they can play around with his spot in the rotation if necessary.
• Schierholtz reportedly made some adjustments while tearing up the Puerto Rican winter league. In particular, he reported that he has made strides with his pitch recognition skils, working on a lot of different approaches, and can't wait to go against big league pitching to see how much he improved. I am still rooting for Nate to win the job, he has done consistently well in the minors as he rose, and been patient in waiting for a shot at the RF starting job. Since Bowker still has another option, we can give Nate 2-3 months to show what he got, and if he doesn't perform, then we could bring up Bowker and give him 2-3 months in RF.
• Also, Baggerly tweeted that Jesus Guzman cleared waivers and the Giants outrighted him to Fresno plus gave him an invite to the big league camp.

2009 Winter Meetings News So Far

There have been a number of reports out about the winter meetings: Haft, Baggarly 1, 2, 3, 4, and Schulman 1 and 2, plus a trade rumor regarding San Diego's Kouzmanoff. I will run through all the news I have available right now.

Kouzmanoff

I'll start there as that's pretty exciting if true. However, I'm not sure what they would want back in return. The notice mentioned Fred Lewis and Kevin Frandsen as the trade offer from our end, and I agree, I would not be excited by that.

Then again, Kouzmanoff has not been that great in the majors, his OPS the past two seasons were low 700's whereas Fred Lewis has hit better than that during his time in the majors, even when he was struggling last season. Still, that's great power to get, it would secure 3B with Pablo moving to 1B (good bye Ishikawa and Garko), I think he was at least OK defensively, and even if he is in arbitration, he would still be getting only $3-5M according to the article (given his poor OPS, I would think that it would be closer to $3M, as the formula for the first year in arbitration is normally (if I remember right) around 40-60% of the average pay he would get as a free agent, and Pedro Feliz being about a similar player getting $5M at 3B, that would put him in the $2-3M range.

It is mentioned that the Twins might be in play, offering Glen Perkins, but I would rather have Lewis ALONE instead, rather than get Perkins. Pucetas at minimum, should be able to match what Perkins has done so far in the majors.

According to Baggarly, however, the 'Dres don't want Lewis. If Frandsen and Pucetas gets the job done, this would be an overpay over what the Twins are offering, but I would do the trade (of course, all speculation, don't know what the Giants are offering, if anything, it is a rumor after all). I would rather trade Martinez with Frandsen, if possible, as I like Pucetas.

Velez/Torres Lead-Off

Well, this would put a tight crimp into my thoughts on how the 2010 roster might fall out. If both are kept on the roster, then either Bowker or Schierholtz gets RF (with either Bowker returning to AAA or Schierholtz DFA?; I also read somewhere that the Giants were not happy Bowker left winter league and he wasn't happy about them ordering him to winter league).

Lead-off? Ugh! That would not be acceptable to me. I would rather leadoff with Bowker instead, or even Lewis. Velez is not the option for lead-off yet, after his hot return to the majors, after sucking early in the year, he cooled off totally.

To Aug. 9: .429/.458/.661/1.118, 3BB/10K in 56 AB with 1 SB and 1 CS (50%)
8/10 to end:.233/.282/.358/.640, 13BB/37K in 193 AB with 9 SB and 4 CS (69%)

So not only would his defense harm the team, his offense would not even make up for it. And there is a reason Torres was a journeyman when we signed him. He just got lucky this year with his hitting. Maybe he finally learned how to hit, but are we really going to bet on him learning? That would not seem to be the Giants or Sabean's way of doing things in the past.

This news does not make me happy with Sabean.

Marlon Byrd in the hand?

There is also talk about the Giants pursuing Marlon Byrd, which would preclude having these two as leadoff, though I don't know who would start otherwise, other than Aaron Rowand again. Plus, Byrd has benefited GREATLY from hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, his OPS in his three years there was around the low 700 on the road, so any deal he signs would be an overpay if they are basing it on his overall numbers, which is very nice, with Texas the past 3 years. He was roughly a high 600 OPS before Texas, which rings true with his road numbers with Texas, so NO THANKS, PLEASE!

Signing him for big money would not make me happy with Sabean either, even more so, as I think Velez/Torres should be able to do what Byrd did and for much less in pay.

Johnny Damon Lead-off?

Another possibility is Johnny Damon, who the Yankees would no longer need if they trade for Curtis Granderson, as rumored. He would totally upgrade lead-off and he has been decent defensively in the outfield, if I remember right. I only wonder what his price would be, but if the Giants are willing to pay it (and not prevent us from keeping our pitching in the future) I would be OK with an overpay, he's been a pretty good player, though getting old, so there is that risk.

Panda Clean-Up

But this does make me happy: Pablo Sandoval has been annointed the new clean-up hitter. That is where he should have been hitting at the end of last season except that Bengie Molina would have had a gamer hissy-fit probably and bemoan his lack of respect, and by the way, he's no clean-up hitter and did he mention that he deserves more years and more money?

Middle Hitter

With Sandoval crowned the cleanup hitter, now we need to settle 3rd and 5th. The team is apparently still looking and Sabean noted that there are more options in the infield than outfield at the moment. I would think that could change once it is learned which players were non-tendered. Apparently there are two "what-ifs" regarding 3B, so Sandoval, while clearly cleanup right now, could play at 1B or 3B.

Payroll: Low $90M

That is about what it was last season, though a slight raise, as I think they started with a high $80M last season. About what could be expected. Hopefully Neukom will open the purse a little more if Lincecum wins more money in arbitration than expected.

No Catching for Sandoval or Garko

That is good news to hear. I'm tired of Giants fans suggesting that we start Pablo there. He is too valuable to play behind the plate, we need him in the lineup for as many of the 162 games as he can, and if he were catcher, he would probably miss at least 20 games if not more if he is injured.
Garko, I would have been intrigued to see him hit there, but since it has been so long since he started, it would not be fair to him to try to start catching again, let alone be the starter, even if it is temporary until Posey comes up. In any case, I read somewhere that the Giants are not even sure they want to be paying millions of dollars for Garko in arbitration if he is platooning with Ishikawa at 1B. Sounds like the Giants have to decide whether Garko is the starter or not, and if so, then that means Ishikawa is gone. I would be fine with him being paid more and platooning, but it's not my money.

No Penny Pickup for Giants

It probably has already been announced already, but Brad Penny appears to have signed with the Cardinals for $7.5M plus $1.5M in incentives. He tried to get more years and similar money from the Giants, but they backed off and he signed with them.

That's OK with me. I think Pucetas would be adequate in the #5 starting spot, and perhaps be decent even, instead of just average. With Lincecum's payday possibly huge, I think we have to pass on Penny unless he's at a good price. That's not a good price.

Another pitcher who is noted as a possible Giants target: Brett Myers, late of Phillies, also part-time closer for Phillies too. I would love to have him as our 5th starter. Jason Marquis is also mentioned, but while he would be OK as our #5 starter, I don't want to be paying him very much to do so for us, under $5M, but I don't expect him to sign for so little. I would pay more for Myers.

The Giants are looking at some international pitching free agents as well.

They are also considering Bumgarner as the 5th starter, though they then would want a veteran reliever in the bullpen if that is done. I'm not sure what the connection there is, though. Because they expect him to pitch less innings?

Other internal options include Joe Martinez, who pitched nicely in the AFL and Kevin Pucetas, who is being asked for in trade conversations, which confirms for the Giants that he would be an OK option for #5 starter. As I noted somewhere, Pucetas' MLE would put him in the mid-to-high 4 ERA which would be great for a #5 starter.

Keeping Medders

Speaking of pitching, the Giants appear to be keeping Medders, by tendering a contract and offering arbitration to him, unlike Garko who is on the bubble. I like what Medders did in 209 and would love to have him in the bullpen again. He would push out someone in the configuration I had in a prior post, but that would be OK with me, he did well for us.

Uggla Trade?

Appears to be coming to a head, the Marlins are ready to unload Uggla to the highest bidder, but right now the Giants appear to not be among the front runners. Still, they could come in with a late bid and try to win him. I think I would rather have Kouzmanoff, if possible, especially if it is Lewis and Frandsen for him. About similar hitting, better defense from Kouz than Uggla, whether Uggla plays 2B or 3B.

But if, as Baggarly notes, Uggla's trade value plummets because the Marlins waited too long (see Twins botching of Johan Santana trade), and we can get him on the cheap, in terms of prospects traded, then it would be great to get him, even at the big price he would probably net in arbitration. He also noted that even if the payroll was used up in this scenario, Neukom could OK raising the payroll to fit him in.

Starting Catcher

With Posey pretty much dismissed at the opening day starter (with the caveat that spring training could change things), the Giants are now looking for a starting catcher who is OK with not starting should Posey prove to be ready. Hard to find anyone like that unless you overpay someone for 2010. Sabean said that he's taking his time on this, which to me means that they probably have a few names who they are targeting and they will keep close tabs on all of them, and once all but one is signed, he would work at signing the last catcher for as low as he can get away with it in January.

Trade Value of OF

A scout was asked about the value of Giants OF, and the answers are not surprising to Giants fans who follow the farm system closely: Lewis, None; Schierholtz, basically none; Bowker, some. I would argue that Schierholtz would be worth more than that, but not much more, so I don't have a problem with that assessment. Nate is doing well in Puerto Rico and so that is good to hear.

Burriss in Limbo

Emmanuel Burriss had setback to the same foot that kept him out most of the season. That is not a good sign as that is his main value as a ballplayer, his speed, and a recurring or hard to heal foot injury could end his major league career before it really began. Too bad, I think he had some promise to become our starting 2B, with great D, good plate discipline, and great speed and SB.

Roberts Out And 11 Man Bullpen

As reported on all the Giants news outlets, Dave Roberts was let go. Chris Haft had a nice blog post on Roberts's intangibles, which I still believe is valuable (though not $6.5M valuable, but that is a sunk cost already) and hopefully he'll come join the Giants as a coach, particularly baserunning instructor for the minors, in the future. Just look at what he has done with Randy Winn in the two years he's been here (Winn credited him recently), horrible SB%, and in two years he has the best SB% in his career, at the elite level. Everything looks amicable between Roberts and the Giants, just disappointing, so I'm hoping he does return to the organization as a coach eventually.

I think the writing was on the wall, though, the moment I saw the media note that Roberts was having knee problems. Injuries have basically knocked Roberts out of the Giants plans at the start of the past two seasons. He's been as advertised when healthy, but he hasn't been healthy, unfortunately for significant periods of his time with the Giants.

The Giants also recently floated the thought that they might go with 11 pitchers instead of 12, before Roberts was let go. If both are followed through with, that opens up two spots on the bench and takes away one bullpen spot.

Bullpen and Bench Swap

It is curious that they suddenly said they might go with 11 pitchers instead of 12. Of course, once the team needs 12 pitchers again, that guy who earned his way onto the starting day roster will probably be dropped back down to AAA at that point. In any case, this implies that one of the position prospects is opening their eyes more than expected.

Obviously, Velez is doing that right now, pushing out Roberts. And perhaps the talk about 11 was originally about keeping Velez until they learned more about Robert's knee and that came to the fore as a reason to get a spot. So that bears watching.

Bullpen Watch

But assuming they are sincere and separate about both statements, that makes the bullpen a bigger situation to watch. With only 6 relievers, and 3, probably 4 (Taschner), spots already spoken for (it would have been 5 if Romo was healthy and producing, I believe), that leaves two spots for Romo, Hinshaw, Sadler, Matos, Miller, Medders, Valdez, Perdomo to pursue, with Yabu and Pichardo (who could stand a year in AAA anyway) the first to miss the chair when the music stopped, which makes sense as that's a lot of competition for very few spots, one less with the move to 11 (assuming it sticks now). And Valdez only today threw his first inning, who knows how his health will turn out.

Odd thing to me is that Perdomo has been doing pretty well so far, so I would think the Giants would want to keep more relievers than less, in order to keep him. Though really, Hinshaw, Matos, and Sadler probably could use a year in AAA in 2009. Miller I saw as an upgrade on Yabu, so maybe start the season with Miller and Perdomo on the roster, both Romo and Valdez on DL or rehab, and the rest in AAA.

Then as Miller and/or Perdomo show what they can do for the Giants in the majors, Romo and Valdez, when ready, can either come up if Miller or Perdomo are failing, or Romo could still go to AAA to cool his heels (Romo could use some time there also) and Valdez would have to be waived, so I would think that if Valdez is healthy and all the relievers are doing OK, they would move to a 12 man pitching staff at that point.

In any case, Perdomo has done very well up to now, so he looks to make the roster if he can continue to do well. And if Valdez is doing well, and can stay healthy, he would also earn a spot as well, he is out of options. That could push Romo to AAA, even if he's healthy and doing well. He'll get the "Schierholtz" speech of the past two years: you should be up here but with the roster we have, you have to be in AAA. Miller looks like he's not going to make the roster unless somebody is injured or recovering from an injury, and once they are back, he'll be in AAA.

Bench Watch

The other big question then is the bench, which moves from 5 to 6. Holm, Aurilia, Uribe, Schierholtz have been pretty set and now Roberts is out, making it two spots open now instead of just the one for Roberts spot. Velez looks like he's headed for a utility role on the bench, and would probably be the first go-to guy for 2B, with Uribe covering SS, and Uribe and Aurilia covering the corner infield. Schierholtz looks to soak up most available OF starts and substitutions, with Velez as backup as really necessary. So who is opening eyes?

The position player's name that has been popping up in recent games that I've been noticing is Jesus Guzman, the former A's (and others) prospect who we signed away from the A's during the off-season. He set some records in the Venezuelan Winter League (both he and Sandoval bashed there this winter) or simply compiled big numbers there, as the case may be. He's a power hitter and plays both 1B and 3B, and he's powered out a couple of homers already. If he continues to hit well, the Giants might just decide to bring him up for at least a while and platoon with Ishikawa and Sandoval, grabbing starts at 1B and 3B, before they need to bring up the 12th pitcher.

Another name that I've seen mentioned has been John Bowker. Sabean noted him as a possibility in the outfield. But based on spring training stats, he hasn't done much of anything to warrant opening a spot for him right now. Plus, he's another left-handed power bat off the bench, which duplicates Schierholtz, who is going to get most of the ABs anyhow, and there is Ishikawa, Aurilia, Uribe, and Sandoval who can play 1B. So I believe it is him who has piqued the Giants interest.

In addition, while I haven't seen either of their names in the news, their batting lines suggest both are looking to take hold of 2B: Burriss and Frandsen. Burriss is hitting .476/.500/.571/1.071 with no strikeouts in 21 AB (but also no walks and only 2 extra-base hits, doubles, in 10 hits) and Frandsen is hitting .412/.500/.647/1.147 with no strikeouts in 17 AB (and only one walk, but with a double and HR out of 7 hits).

As nicely as Burriss is hitting, it also illustrates the reasons why the Giants would want him to go to AAA this season and work on things. First and foremost, his lack of power. I suppose Lansford's suggestions have not made it into his head yet. 20% XBH% and 95 ISO is not what you want to see, you want to see at least 30% if not 35% XBH% and ISO at least 150. Small samples, but Frandsen is showing why he should win the 2B position, 29% XBH and 235 ISO (not going to keep it that high, but illustrates his power potential differential over Burriss).

Still, if Burriss continues to hit this well, just not the way the Giants want, the Giants would probably feel like they need to start the season with him on the opening day roster on the bench, to reward his nice spring, then send him back down once they need the 12th pitcher in the bullpen.

Another Great Giants Reporter Blog; Bay Bridge Baseball

Kudos to El Lefty Malo for turning me on to Bay Bridge Baseball, published by Jeff Fletcher, formerly of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat (best wishes for finding your next job!). His site covers both A's as well as Giants, but, of course, I link above only to the Giants side.

He had a great post here, where he interviewed Bobby Evans and it is chock full of questions and information that I would have asked (which, frankly, has been lacking in most interviews or Q&A with Giants execs that I had seen before). Of course, it helped that the questions came from his readers who left the question on one of his posts, but still, very good information at this link. I'll copy what I think is good information to pass on:

• Some people have been agitating for the Giants to sign Hudson, but Evans says it is not going to happen, that they have three options they like, Frandsen, Burriss, and Velez. "We worked hard to develop those players, and we want to give them a chance."
• About Pablo and hitting homers: "I think Pablo is very much aware of the kind of player he'll be, at least this year. We all know he has power potential, but his biggest tool is going to be the bat and not so much the power. The homers will come for him, but that won't be a focus." That's good, most players turn into bad hitters trying to swing for homers, look at McGwire, he was good at USC and first year with A's then basically became a Dave Kingman-type of all or nothing hitter.
• About Pablo and 3B: "I think we're confident enough in him at third to have him as the leading candidate to play third for us. We'll evaluate him along with other options in spring training. We're confident enough at this point we haven't gone out and brought in anyone else to play third. Truth be known, we spent a lot of '08 focusing on him behind the plate, but his best position is still a great debate. What we do know is his bat fits in the lineup somewhere." He also noted that it would be nice if he is 3B, as that is a nice fit for the Giants. I'm sure we all totally agree with all this. :^)
• Confidence in Ishikawa: "I think the highest level of confidence is that we have in him is defensively he'll be above major league average at first. The offense, at a major league level, is going to be an ongoing evaluation. He's shown us things in his development and progress that give us reason to believe he'll be a very capable offensive addition in bottom end of our lineup paying first base. Ultimately his progression offensively has gotten back on track. We're optimistic that he'll carry his load well over there."
• Question whether there is any prospect better than Burriss at SS, like Brandon Crawford: "When you say 'better than' it's a hard question to answer. We like Brandon Crawford at short. We like Ehire Adrianza. We like Charlie Culberson at short, although he may profile at second as well. And Noonan can play short, but we like him more at second. But those are all solid."
• About Nate Schierholtz in RF in 2010: "I think we'll find out a lot more about Nate Schierholtz in '09 in whatever role he has on this club. One of the goals of '09 is to know as much as we can about Nate so that we make the right decision going into 2010. How confident are we? We are as confident as we need to be right now, but we have whole year to evaluate." (NOTE: Schierholtz is out of options this year, and Bobby confirmed to me that means he will be on the team in some capacity, barring something unforeseen.) If the Giants give him enough chances, I think they will be confident enough to start him in 2010. At minimum, this hopefully means they are not entertaining any thought of signing Winn to an extension.
• About where Bumgarner will be assigned: "He's got a chance to start in San Jose, but he also could make the Double A club. It's awful cold in Connecticut in April, so he might be better to start in San Jose and move later on... He'll be in minor league camp (in spring), but he'll have his time to visit with Randy Johnson and some big league players."
• About Sanchez maybe relieving in 2009: "Back and forth between bullpen and starting is not necessarily in his best interest. At times it's been in the best interest of the organization's needs at the given time. That could happen again in '09, but no question it would benefit him to stay in one role and progress in that... His best shot to help the club is as a starter, but that's always a point of discussion with how things look this spring." That's bad news to me, with the silver lining that he saves his arm while Lowry builds up his value in order to be traded, allowing Sanchez to start for 3-4 months at the end of the season after Lowry is traded to a contender.
• About Matt Downs going up and down: "Matt Downs is a very capable offensive player as well as defensively he can play a number of different places. Basically he was in a position where he played himself out of the Cal League and we wanted to advance him, but as the roster became jammed at Triple A, it made more sense for us to send him back to the Cal League where he could finish the season and complete what was a good year, as opposed to creating a spot at Double A where the roster was already full."
• About EME: "Eddy is going to be in minor league camp with hope of making the Triple A club. Certainly last year he progressed with the bat, but didn't show the power he's shown in the past. Hopefully that will come back this spring and another year removed from having been injured, he'll hopefully play a role on the Triple A club this summer." Good to hear he has a chance for AAA, that would be best for evaluating him properly. He did show power last year, however, because, as I've documented, Dodd Stadium saps a hitter's power numbers, and his road numbers, while not as strong as previous seasons, does show a fair amount of power (roughly 35 AB/HR or about 15-20 HR season).

Youth Movement: At Last?

Despite Damon Bruce's declaration yesterday on KNBR that the Giants are finally having a youth movement, just because of the Durham trade, the Giants clearly started their youth movement in earnest with the trade of Matt Morris to the Pirates, which cleared salary and opened up a rotation spot for Correia. After that, the Giants also played Frandsen and Ortmeier extensively, as well, and during the off-season, the only real move the Giants made was to get the above-average Aaron Rowand, marking the first season in a long time where the Giants did not pick up a low to mid-priced, average or worse veteran that blocked a young player even though they could have used one at 1B and 3B, though technically signing Omar Vizquel did take a spot but there was no one he was blocking.

They have already announced that Eugenio Velez will get to start at 2B regularly now that Durham was traded, plus Burriss will start to see regular play at SS, as Vizquel is moving aside - at his suggestion even, showing how classy he is - to allow the youngsters to play. Ivan Ochoa will also see time at 2B and SS as well. That is in addition to Fred Lewis starting in leftfield and John Bowker starting at firstbase.

On top of that, really, the Giants have had a youth movement in the pitching ranks in force with the addition of Matt Cain into the starting rotation, as then there was Cain and Lowry in the rotation and youth through the bullpen. The bullpen is pretty much all Giants farmhands except when Yabu was around (and technically Chulk, though he was acquired for a farmhand) and the starting rotation is pretty much all Giants farmhands except for Zito. And Sabean has announced to the world that the Giants are not trading young pitching and won't pick up any veteran rentals, so any trade they make will both not give up young pitching plus won't pick up any old veteran.

According to KNBR, the Giants mysteriously announced a roster change but won't give the details until tomorrow morning. They speculate that perhaps there was a trade made.

Giants Mess

Baseball Prospectus is currently allowing free access to their content, so being a typical cheap Chinese, I perused some stuff. One had a section on the "Giants mess." Apparently all their top draft picks want the world in bonuses. #1 Posey reportedly is serious about getting 8 figures ($10M+) and there has been few talks so far. #2 Gillaspie, according to one source, apparently had "delusional" bonus demands. Both #3 Kieschnick and #4 Crawford want the first round bonus they felt they should have gotten, if they didn't screw up and watch their stock drop.

I think eventually all will sign except for perhaps Crawford. Posey has no reason to go back to college ranks and risk injury. So his agent, much like the agents in the last draft, is trying to justify his fee by trying to get big bucks from the Giants, before he signs just before the deadline for probably around $5-6M. I would not be surprised if he gets more than Tim Beckham.

Gillaspie should also sign because he's going to be getting around $1M bonus and risk losing that to injury. It is not like he is that good that he could increase his draft level much more by staying in school. I think the agent might have something to do with it, again, because they need to justify their fee. So they wait to see what others get and try to get his client a little more than that.

Same with Kieschnick, lower bonus, but still substantial enough to not risk going back to college.

Crawford, however, was a legit 1st round talent who dropped a lot. He's also going to UCLA, so he can finish (or get much closer to) college and get his degree there. Plus his bonus, unless the Giants pay a lot over slot, would not be so much that staying in school would make some sense with a reward that he could make a lot more with a good season. The Giants will probably have to go much over slot to sign him.

I think the Giants could and would pay overslot to get all four, particularly Posey. Still, it won't be a huge disaster if they don't sign any of them, as the article's title - "Giants Mess" - implies. They would get a similar pick in next year's draft, and with their high slot now, they could end up with 2 of the top 6 picks in next year's draft, and I don't think that would be the worse thing in the world. Plus they would get a pick in the supplemental if Gillaspie don't sign. And the talent level once you get to Kieschnick and Crawford part of the draft, isn't so good that moving the pick from this year to next will drastically change the Giants odds of finding a good player.

Your 2008 Giants: Big 6 Questions

Named in honor of Big 6, Giants Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson, I will posit on what I see as the Big 6 questions that the Giants face this season. I will give my thoughts on the possible answers.

1) How Many Losses?

As I've outlined in previous posts, I think the Giants are capable of besting last year's 71 win total, even without Bonds and Feliz, and perhaps even reach the .500 mark, or 81 wins. I think they will be closer to 81 than they will be to 71. I'll give further detail in my upcoming post on my thoughts on the 2008 season.

But I will say that it looks like the theory that Sabean has been espousing in recent years, that the league will switch from power to speed, much like the 80's and the Cards, will be put into practice, as speedsters like Davis, Velez and Lewis are added to the Giants roster, with Bocock, Burriss, Richardson, and others moving up the system as well. If they can execute this well, then their offense will be better than expected (and not much is expected), and will contribute to getting their record closer to .500 than last year's record.

2) Which Young Position Players Will Shine, Which Will Fail?

Obviously, I cannot answer this question at this time but can give some thoughts. I think Dan Ortmeier can hit well enough to hold the position until one of our better prospects come up and take it over, most probably Angel Villalona by 2009-11, but it could be another prospects, as I'll go into later. Kevin Frandsen might have lost his best chance to get to start in the majors, as Eugenio Velez looks to take 2B this season at some point, but either appear to be keeping the position warm for when Nick Noonan is ready, 2010-11 time period.

The Giants could keep 3B waiting for Frandsen for 2009, but while I like his bat, I don't think it's one that is suited for 3B unless we can get power (or speed) from other positions. But there is no one in the minors who look ready to take 3B, so that works to Frandsen's advantage. My only speculation there would be perhaps the Giants might move Travis Denker there, as he has shown some power in the minors (but not real 3B power, just more than Frandsen). Velez will get a chance to be the Giants "Figgins" until he finds a position he can stick at.

In the outfield, I think Nate Schierholtz will take RF at some point, and it looks likely to me that John Bowker will eventually win LF, but unless trades happen neither will do it this season. Fred Lewis' defense appears to be pretty bad, and his offense is not good enough to counter that. As athletic as he is, he might be best suited for the DH role in the AL, utility OF role in the NL. Rajai Davis can't hit righties but mashes lefties; Dave Roberts can't hit lefties but mashes righties. Both run like the wind and are similar leadoff hitters. A better match for platoon buddies does not exist.

I think Winn will be traded by mid-season once Schierholtz shows that he can duplicate his hitting for average and power again to start the 2008 season in AAA. Winn might go earlier if the Giants are serious about letting Lewis start more, but they admit that Lewis doesn't hit lefties that well.

3) Will the Pitching Rotation Be As Good As Advertised?

I think they will be better than projections currently show, and they are pretty good already. I guess the corollary question is then, will they be healthy? And by they, I mean Cain and Lincecum. Right now, it looks good, but you can never really know. Lincecum has developed a new slider that appears to be working quite fine, thank you. So the top of our rotation looks pretty good right now and should be quite an effective 1-2 punch eventually; they will be manning the #2 and #3 spots this season, which is good, less pressure on them, particularly Lincecum, to do well.

I think Zito can do as well as he was doing in the last 1-2 months of the season, plus he added some tweaks this spring training by changing his pitching motion. He should be in the high 3's ERA range. Lowry I think will do as well as he has been doing for most of the past two seasons (around 4.00 ERA) once he returns from the DL in early May/late April and become the best #4 starter in the majors. And between Sanchez and Correia, I think at least one will do well enough and that would be good enough for the #5 starter.

4) Will Brian Wilson Sing At Closer?

I think he is finally ready. He needed his butt kicked last season and responded well to being sent down. He was superb at the end of the season pitching for us as the closer. He will greatly improve the 2007 bullpen all by himself.

5) Which Vets Will We Eventually Trade?

I think the fire sale rumor was true, as it was reported from two different media sources citing their own sources. So I think that eventually all the ones named will be traded - Aurilia, Durham, Winn, perhaps even Roberts, opening spots for young prospects to take over. I think some of the young bullpen might be traded as well, as add-ons, to get a better position player.

In a recent interview, Sabean noted that he wants a lefty to break up Molina/Rowand/Durham, but if they trade away Randy Winn and insert Nate Schierholtz there, Nate can be that lefty bat. In fact, if Schierholtz can hit like he has, we could put Molina lower in the lineup and bat Rowand or Durham in the #4 and #6 spots, with Schierholtz #5.

6) Who Will the Giants Pick With their #5 Pick Overall?

The Giants need an impact bat. Most experts I've seen think that such a bat exists for us at the #5 overall. Unfortunately, most of them are 1B, which is where the Giants are trying to move Villalona to this season. Most mock drafts have the Giants picking Justin Smoak, college 1B. There were some speculation that they might go for pitching again, but in a recent interview on KNBR, Sabean admitted that they may have overdone the pitching drafting thing, and thus would put more emphasis on position players. There is also a current 3B in Pedro Alvarez, but he's expected to go #1 and some think he's eventually moving to 1B.

The Giants also have a high supplemental first draft pick because of the Phillies signing Feliz, and a number of good hitters fell there in 2007, such as Nick Noonan. But each year is different in terms of talent pool, so you can't rely on that fact, you can only note that 2007 was good. And Noonan is no sure thing to reach the majors and do well.

Bad News: Frandsen Probably Out All 2008 Season

Boy, the season as it was, was not going to be the greatest, but there were a few things I was greatly looking forward to: Cain getting better, Lincecum getting best, and Frandsen breaking out and becoming a starter. OK, maybe not a starter, but getting a lot of ABs a la Feliz when he broke out, getting consistent ABs all over the diamond. Lewis I'll believe when I see it, I have hopes for Ortmeier but know that years of poor performance in the minors says nix on that thought, Schierholtz don't have a spot, and I don't think Davis is the real deal.

But, Bam!, suddenly Frandsen's Achilles' heal burst, along with his season, and possibly his career - opportunities like this don't fall out of the tree that often, just ask Lance Niekro. This type of injury generally requires surgery and 5-6 months of recovery. He'll be lucky to make it back before the September call-ups.

Now, with Frandsen apparently out for the season, that causes a lot of things to happen. First is that Jose Castillo is pretty much guaranteed a spot, basically the spot that Frandsen was going to get, whereas before he was just backup in case anything goes wrong, like, for example, this injury. He might also get to start a lot, like Frandsen was suppose to do, depending on how his competition does. Second, and more importantly, Eugenio Velez, who is now Castillo's main competition, is now most probably not only making the team, but probably will get a lot of starts that Frandsen was going to get.

I believe the Giants were serious about giving young guys playing time, and now that Frandsen is out, that means Velez, who was already making the Giants think about giving him starting time with his great spring, will most probably see starting time at 2B, 3B, OF, probably even SS, much like Feliz did in the season he first played in a lot of games. Heck, though he hasn't hit well as a RHH, he is a natural righty, so he might even get some of the platoon game in LF with Roberts, instead of Davis, who has been pretty invisible this spring, it seems, I can't even think of what he has done, whereas Velez has been in the media constantly.

And that kind of leads into my third thought, which is that this might work out in giving Ortmeier starting time at 1B to start the season. Durham says everything is fine, that he is starting opening day, but this is not the first time he has cried "wolf". At least once every season he has been with us, there has been a 10-15 game period where he can't play, but he says he is almost ready to play, he just doesn't want to risk anything. So I expect him to waste a spot on the bench by having his cranky body unable to start, forcing the Giants to play Aurilia at 3B, Velez at 2B, and thus Ortmeier at 1B.

Heck, I hope the Giants just DL Durham to start the season - tear the bandage off the scab - and start Velez at 2B, Aurilia at 3B, and give Ortmeier 1B for a while. In any case, Castillo would be the utility guy plus get an occassional start at 2B and 3B. And Ortmeier has been turning around his hitting the past few games after it was made known that he's not guaranteed anything. Made it seem like he had been pressing and getting that ultimatum got him over the hump and just do it, instead of worrying each AB and not doing well.

I was not sold on Velez before, but he's doing more and more to impress me. Fred Lewis too. Hopefully, now that my Frandsen hopes were dashed, we can see Ortmeier, Velez, and Lewis get a lot of ABs and show what they can do.

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Vizquel Injury

It has been revealed today - here is the sfgiants.com version - that Omar Vizquel injured his knee last week and when he had an MRI, they discovered that he needs surgery to fix the damage now and get him back on the field quickly for most of 2008, instead of risking that the surgery happens sometime during the season and losing a large chunk of the season. He will be out 4-6 weeks and most probably will miss some of the start of the season.

The immediate solution noted right now is for Frandsen to man Shortstop in Omar's absense, which means Aurilia at 3B and Durham at 2B, though once Omar is back, Durham might have a battle for playing time at 2B, depending on how well Aurilia hits as well, because the Giants could field Aurilia at 3B and Frandsen at 2B.

Frandsen is jazzed by the opportunity, though he took pains to note that the position is Omar's and he regrets it is an injury that gave him the opportunity. He knows that he still has to win a starting position once Omar is back. But he appreciates the Giants confidence in him and hopes to earn a starting position somewhere for 2008.

This also opens up an opportunity for Eugenio Velez to win the utility middle infielder role at the start of the season. He is still prepping for an uber-utility role - he is playing every position except for pitcher, catcher, and 1B, and I'll bet he'd be willing to catch if it got him into the majors. But he's only keeping the seat warm until Omar comes back and forces one of the starters at 2B, 3B, or SS to the bench, depending on how well Durham, Frandsen, and Aurilia hits.

Clearly, the Giants have been leaning towards Durham at 2B and Frandsen at 3B, given the little public comment on Aurilia's role. I have to assume that the only reason the Giants haven't pulled the trigger on a trade for a 3B is because they want to see how Durham and Frandsen does. If both can hit well enough, the man 2B and 3B, respectively, with Durham providing some power, and there is no need for a trade. If either struggles, then they will probably trade for Crede as oft-rumored to play 3B with the better hiter starting at 2B.

New Baserunning Coach Preaching and Teaching

Roberto Kelly is the Giants new first base coach, after having great successful managing in the minors, leading Augusta the past three years. He is also in charge of outfield and baserunning instruction. At Augusta, the teams overachieved with pitchers without overpowering stuff and speedsters like Marcus Sanders, Eugenio Velez, Antoan Richardson, and Emmanuel Burriss, stealing a ton of buses.

Having fast players, it is usually hard to see what effect Kelly has on them, but Velez is a stark example of how well Kelly taught the players to be run-happy. When Eugenio was in the Blue Jay's system, he never stole more than 10 bases in any full season (he stole 28 bases in short season rookie DSL), his high was when he stole 7 (and was caught 5 times) in his last season in their system. He was a horrible base stealer. First season we got him, Kelly had Velez stealing 64 (!) bases with 81% success rate, which is above average and above the break-even rate for success rate (I've seen some state anywhere from 70-80% as the break-even point). He won the league's MVP award with that performance the season after his team gave up on him and we picked him up.

That is a huge transformation, all due to Kelly according to Velez. Velez swears by Kelly: "Everything I know right now, I learned from Roberto Kelly. He said, 'If a pitcher has a quick move, he'll give you something. Pay attention and you'll see it.' " Emmanuel Burris also had a positive comment as well, "There's a difference between a hard-working team and a team that wants to work hard. His teams want to work hard."

Those are clearly the attitudes the Giants are trying to instill for 2008 and beyond, for the players to work hard, to take the extra base. And it goes beyond just stealing bases, it affects all areas of baserunning in general which puts pressure on the opposing defenses, hopefully forcing errors. Taking extra bases, whether by stealing bases on stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples, will be the goal this season.

In addition, there is a bonus in that Kelly is a Spanish speaker and the first on the coaching staff since Alou was the manager and Luis Pujols was on the staff. This is important because the Giants have been making a concerted push in Latin America for talent and expects that talent to reach the majors soon. For example, Kelly has already been assisting Angel Villalona with both baseball issues and life in general.

Velez Playing Various Positions

Speaking of Eugenio Velez, Chris Haft of sfgiants.com just wrote on him in an interesting article. The Giants are moving ahead with trying to make him into a Chone Figgins uber-utility type of player who can essentially start but can start at a wide variety of different positions each day. They have been playing him at 2B, 3B, SS, and the OF. The 25 year old said - unsurprisingly - that he's willing to play anywhere in order to make the majors.

Velez's transformation was pretty stark, as noted above, and he credited his development to Roberto Kelly, his former Augusta manager and current Giants first base coach. "I try to put into play everything that I've learned from him," Velez said. Looks like he has done a great job of learning from Kelly, Velez was a nothing prospect when the Giants picked him up, and now he is on most Giants' Top 10 prospect lists and on the cusp of making the 25 man roster in the 2008 season with another good season, where he will probably play at AAA Fresno.

Giants Thought

Giants fans have been wondering how the Giants can run in 2008 when the roster is basically the same, slow, non-stealing crew from last season. Roberto Kelly's Augusta teams provides a template for what they could be like. Obviously players like Molina, Alfonzo, Aurilia, and Frandsen are not going to suddenly sprout wings and start stealing 10 bases a season. However, Roberts and Davis will set the tone up at the top of the order, and players like Winn, Lewis, Rowand, Ortmeier (he stole double-digits bases the past 5 seasons, all his full-season years), and Vizquel are capable of providing double-digit steal totals. Teams that force the issue like this on the base paths can pressure the defense into errors, mental or otherwise, that can lead to rallies.

Now, it won't transform the team into a serious contender, but that's not the point. The point is changing the attitudes of the players who are on the team and want to remain on the team (that is, remain in the majors and/or Giants). That is to show any future player the Giants seek to get that they are the right team to join (or so the Giants management's thinking goes).

As I and others have noted, the Giants as they are today isn't that far away from .500, they could even be there today if the pitchers can develop and progress as hoped while the offense hits as well as projections suggest, as I have shown with my Pythagorean calculations, Bill James projections, and lineup analysis. We can be one good trade, one good signing, or one good development away from being competitive (85+ wins) again.

Bill James Projections

I thought I would check out what Bill James projects for the Giants pitching staff. Using his numbers for Cain, Lowry, Correia, Zito, Wilson, Walker, Hennessey, Chulk, Kline, Sanchez, and Misch (I used CHONE for Lincecum since there was no projection for him), who are expected to comprise the pitching staff in 2008, I got an aggregate ERA of 3.82. Now, that could get worse as there is still another 120+ IP to account for, so either lesser pitchers will pitch those innings or the pitching staff above could be pushed hard and do more poorly.

Adding Randy Messenger, who would be the next logical pitcher to add, should the Giants expand to 12 pitchers, would raise the ERA to 3.88. Adding Jack Taschner, assuming pitchers will move up and down, would keep the ERA at 3.88, and bring the IP to about that of 2007.

That results in a runs allowed scenario of 4.20 runs per game. That is what the offense is expected to produce, based on Bill James projections for the offense and the lineup analyzer, resulting in an expected .500 team for the Giants in 2008.