This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of September 2015 and for the season, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 (wow, 10th year of this!) and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
Showing posts with label Mike Leake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Leake. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Saturday, December 05, 2015
Giants Sign The Shark: Samardzija for Pence Deal
As the beats have been reporting, Giants signed Jeff Samardzija to a 5 year, $90M deal. The deal details per Pavlovic, who first reported the deal:
In any case, reportedly, Samardzija preferred to sign with the Giants over other teams. And that was probably key to this deal being closed so fast after Greinke signed with the D-backs (you know the story, so I won't repeat that), as his agent reportedly said that he had a $100M deal on the table a few days ago (though, for what it's worth, all the reporting I saw after that was that this was what they were asking for, not that he was offered that).
Plus, Pavs noted these factors that the Giants took into account:
You're a Rich One, Mr. Greinke
This was the title I was going to use for the blog post when it was reported that we signed Samardzija (yea, typed with no mistake, though I did slow down near the end!) so I wanted to use it somewhere. His signing to the largest AAV contract, as well as nearly as big as Price's, at 6 years, $206.5M (though some of it was deferred, making the contract worth more like $190M in present value; though I would note that, strictly speaking, I take any discussion of "present value" with regards to baseball contracts with a grain of salt because if one is going to calculate net present value, the whole contract has be netted, not just the deferred payments) was apparently the domino that needed to fall in order for the Giants to sign the Shark.
This move should make the D-backs into close to being a contender, as they were around .500 last season and have some good pieces in Goldschmidt and Pollock, plus stated that they are still in search of another starter and are pursuing, among others, Mike Leake. I had been hoping that their pursuit of Cueto would kill their interest in Leake, and here they sign Greinke to about $14.3M more per season than Cueto and they are still pursuing him.
Giants Next Moves
Surprisingly, per the accounts from the beats (Baggarly and Pavs above, here's Schulman), it sounds like the Giants will probably not get Leake. The feeling is that with Samardzija's deal, Leake will be wanting 5 years, $90M ($18M AAV) as well, and, basically, that's too rich for the Giants blood, which I've been noting had been the problem area between the two sides.
Rumors currently have the Giants looking at Iwakuma right now. And that makes some sense. One because the Giants might not want to commit to another pitcher for 5 years now that they have Blackburn, Beede, Blach, Stratton, Meija, Bickford, Johnson, and Coonrod waiting and rising up the minors. Two, the Giants already lost their first round pick, so now they would only lose their second round pick.
So why did the Giants give up on their draft pick? Evans did say that they would prefer to keep the pick. Yet the guys they went hardest after (per media coverage, Greinke and Samardzija, plus they brought in Zimmerman, as well as Samardzija, and Zobrist will be visiting soon). Perhaps they view next year's draft depth to be not worth keeping the pick? Or perhaps that is why the Giants went hard for Fox and a number of other IFA's this time, knowing that they anticipated losing the first pick due to a QO.
The Giants are also looking at Zobrist as well. We need a LF and his versatility around the infield would give Bochy a lot of options for mixing and matching. As well, given that Panik is one of the most asked for players in trade, the Giants could decide to make the trade, say for a pitcher (Indians reportedly asked for both Panik and Duffy for Carrasco), and use Zobrist at 2B. However, part of the reason being given that the Giants can spend big now is that having young producing assets like Panik and Duffy gives the Giants the ability to sign large deals like the Shark, and pursue another big free agent.
My calculations come out with $24.2M left to spend before reaching the luxury tax threshold, $29.2M left to spend, depending on where exactly they want to target their annual payroll at. As noted in my prior post, enough to get a mid-range signing like an Iwakuma or Fister, plus a nice bullpen addition like Soria.
I wanted to get this out now, I'll look at my thoughts about Samardzija in another post.
Samardzija got the same five-year, $90 million deal Hunter Pence signed in 2013. The deal includes a $9 million signing bonus, with $3 million paid upfront and the rest spread out. Essentially, he’ll make $12 million in 2016 and $19.5 million each of the next four seasons. Samardzija also got a limited no-trade clause that allows him to pick eight teams each season that he can be traded to.The Giants lose their #19 draft pick with this signing, as Baggarly noted. Apparently the Giants think a lot more about the Shark (it's going to take a while for me to learn to type his last name without errors :^) than they do Leake, because the reports are that while they remain interested in Leake, they will not be willing to give him the same deal and with all the deals done already and teams interested in Leake, it appears that market demand will push him up to that size of a deal. And signing him would not cost the Giants another draft pick, so not only did they pay more in contract, they gave up on a draft pick.
In any case, reportedly, Samardzija preferred to sign with the Giants over other teams. And that was probably key to this deal being closed so fast after Greinke signed with the D-backs (you know the story, so I won't repeat that), as his agent reportedly said that he had a $100M deal on the table a few days ago (though, for what it's worth, all the reporting I saw after that was that this was what they were asking for, not that he was offered that).
Plus, Pavs noted these factors that the Giants took into account:
“Even in tough times (last year) he still put 200-plus innings on the board,” Evans said. “You look at his track record, you look at his presence that he brings on the mound, you look at back-to-back-to-back 200-plus (inning) seasons, and you realize this guy is a force to be reckoned with. There’s a reason why we targeted him and a reason why we focused on him as one of our top priorities.
“You’ve got a guy who has made the conversion from reliever to starter and has done that well. There are a lot of innings left in that arm.”
The Giants believe Samardzija’s 2015 numbers may have been partially skewed by the fact that he was pitching for his third team in two seasons, and they have identified mechanical adjustments they can make to a guy who has the tools to be an ace. Samardzija, a former football star at Notre Dame, is listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, throwing a fastball that averaged 94.3 mph last season and topped out at 97.9. The Giants believe they can harness that kind of electric stuff, and they have one of the best pitching coaches in the game in Dave Righetti.ogc thoughts
You're a Rich One, Mr. Greinke
This was the title I was going to use for the blog post when it was reported that we signed Samardzija (yea, typed with no mistake, though I did slow down near the end!) so I wanted to use it somewhere. His signing to the largest AAV contract, as well as nearly as big as Price's, at 6 years, $206.5M (though some of it was deferred, making the contract worth more like $190M in present value; though I would note that, strictly speaking, I take any discussion of "present value" with regards to baseball contracts with a grain of salt because if one is going to calculate net present value, the whole contract has be netted, not just the deferred payments) was apparently the domino that needed to fall in order for the Giants to sign the Shark.
This move should make the D-backs into close to being a contender, as they were around .500 last season and have some good pieces in Goldschmidt and Pollock, plus stated that they are still in search of another starter and are pursuing, among others, Mike Leake. I had been hoping that their pursuit of Cueto would kill their interest in Leake, and here they sign Greinke to about $14.3M more per season than Cueto and they are still pursuing him.
Giants Next Moves
Surprisingly, per the accounts from the beats (Baggarly and Pavs above, here's Schulman), it sounds like the Giants will probably not get Leake. The feeling is that with Samardzija's deal, Leake will be wanting 5 years, $90M ($18M AAV) as well, and, basically, that's too rich for the Giants blood, which I've been noting had been the problem area between the two sides.
Rumors currently have the Giants looking at Iwakuma right now. And that makes some sense. One because the Giants might not want to commit to another pitcher for 5 years now that they have Blackburn, Beede, Blach, Stratton, Meija, Bickford, Johnson, and Coonrod waiting and rising up the minors. Two, the Giants already lost their first round pick, so now they would only lose their second round pick.
So why did the Giants give up on their draft pick? Evans did say that they would prefer to keep the pick. Yet the guys they went hardest after (per media coverage, Greinke and Samardzija, plus they brought in Zimmerman, as well as Samardzija, and Zobrist will be visiting soon). Perhaps they view next year's draft depth to be not worth keeping the pick? Or perhaps that is why the Giants went hard for Fox and a number of other IFA's this time, knowing that they anticipated losing the first pick due to a QO.
The Giants are also looking at Zobrist as well. We need a LF and his versatility around the infield would give Bochy a lot of options for mixing and matching. As well, given that Panik is one of the most asked for players in trade, the Giants could decide to make the trade, say for a pitcher (Indians reportedly asked for both Panik and Duffy for Carrasco), and use Zobrist at 2B. However, part of the reason being given that the Giants can spend big now is that having young producing assets like Panik and Duffy gives the Giants the ability to sign large deals like the Shark, and pursue another big free agent.
My calculations come out with $24.2M left to spend before reaching the luxury tax threshold, $29.2M left to spend, depending on where exactly they want to target their annual payroll at. As noted in my prior post, enough to get a mid-range signing like an Iwakuma or Fister, plus a nice bullpen addition like Soria.
I wanted to get this out now, I'll look at my thoughts about Samardzija in another post.
Thursday, December 03, 2015
Love Me Tender: Arbitration Offers for Belt and Kontos; Sanchez and Petit non-tendered
As reported by the beats, Belt and Kontos were given arbitration offers and thus are being retained by the Giants. The bigger news, though anticlimatic since the beats have been foreshadowing this for a long while now, was that Hector Sanchez and Yusmiero Petit were non-tendered.
Wednesday, December 02, 2015
2015 Hot Stove: Setting the Table
There has been some recent deals that I think provides some market parameters for Leake and Lincecum. In addition, I provide some free agent contract projections from:
- MLBTR (Dierkes)
- Fangraphs (FG - Cameron)
- Fangraphs Crowdsourcing
- CBS (Heyman)
Thursday, November 05, 2015
Your 2016 Giants: Aoki Option Declined
Reported on by:
Ironically, Evans said that it was because he wanted more options. Evans noted that they didn't want to commit to a full outfield yet (already got Pagan and Pence) but could circle back to Aoki (or Byrd) later in the process (he was signed in January last off-season, so he could possibly be still available again in January). He noted that there were interesting trade possibilities for the OF, and also noted that this gives more financial flexibility as well.
And the Giants still like Aoki and says that health was not a factor in the decision, only the desire to not limit the Giants options in LF or in pursuing players in general. And it does not necessarily tie to SP pursuit, again, just looking to be more financially flexible.
There were internal options, but no one the Giants would commit to. Belt has played some LF, but Evans said that the Giants prefer to keep him at 1B, where he's a gold glover, and in any case, the more important issue is that he's still experiencing concussion symptoms, though he's expected to be fully recovered by spring training. Tomlinson has not wowed in instructionals, “showed it’s not his natural position" but good a lot of good work in and might work on it in the Mexican League during the off-season. Ideally, Parker or Williamson would take the job like Duffy, but they can't rely on that, and thus will search for acquire someone.
Some quotes:
“The timing is bad because we have a lot of things to address this winter and a lot of things we want to look at, and it’s about keeping our options open,” Evans said. “To predetermine left field today is just premature.”
“We’re definitely not closing any doors,” Evans said. “There’s certainly interest in having him back, and if we do bring him back, I want to be sure everyone is clear on his role and what he’s walking into in terms of his situation on the roster. We’ll know more about that in the next weeks or months.”
“We’re aware pitching is a concern and there are a lot of ways to address that, (but) we’ll need to look at our outfield,” Evans said. “We can’t have an offseason without ways to improve ourselves (there).”Giants have declined options on both Aoki and Byrd. Byrd was expected, but it was surprising to see Aoki let go. The Giants paid Aoki his $700K buy out instead of picking up his $5.5M option, adding $4.8M to the money it has to spend on free agents for the 2016 season.
Ironically, Evans said that it was because he wanted more options. Evans noted that they didn't want to commit to a full outfield yet (already got Pagan and Pence) but could circle back to Aoki (or Byrd) later in the process (he was signed in January last off-season, so he could possibly be still available again in January). He noted that there were interesting trade possibilities for the OF, and also noted that this gives more financial flexibility as well.
And the Giants still like Aoki and says that health was not a factor in the decision, only the desire to not limit the Giants options in LF or in pursuing players in general. And it does not necessarily tie to SP pursuit, again, just looking to be more financially flexible.
There were internal options, but no one the Giants would commit to. Belt has played some LF, but Evans said that the Giants prefer to keep him at 1B, where he's a gold glover, and in any case, the more important issue is that he's still experiencing concussion symptoms, though he's expected to be fully recovered by spring training. Tomlinson has not wowed in instructionals, “showed it’s not his natural position" but good a lot of good work in and might work on it in the Mexican League during the off-season. Ideally, Parker or Williamson would take the job like Duffy, but they can't rely on that, and thus will search for acquire someone.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: End of Season Presser
The Giants held their end of season press conference on the Monday after the last game. Unfortunately, none of the beat writers wrote up the transcript of what was said, nor was the full video made available by the Giants or CSNBA. The Giants did provide a summary video that seems to capture a lot of what was reported by the beat writers and CSNBA did have a number of snippets, which perhaps, altogether, might be the entire conference.
Note: I was going to work on this earlier but then my back went out with a massive sneeze - I was crawling around on all fours for the next two days, walking around like a 100 year old for another week, still dealing with the pain still - and so apologies for taking so long to get to this.
Note: I was going to work on this earlier but then my back went out with a massive sneeze - I was crawling around on all fours for the next two days, walking around like a 100 year old for another week, still dealing with the pain still - and so apologies for taking so long to get to this.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
2015 Giants: August PQS
This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of August 2015, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 (wow, 10th year of this!) and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: Road Trip Gauntlet Over
Thought I would share some thoughts after this tough road trip.
Monday, August 17, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: The August Gauntlet Hits Its Peak
I was commenting on Raising Matt Cain (great blog to go to for Giants news and a heavy dose of Matt Cain, which is always good) and I realized that I should post something regarding this important and tough road trip: facing Cards for three then the Pirates for four. I took some stuff about the pitchers and expanded it into the below.
Monday, August 03, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: The August Gauntlet
{Note: I had this written up for publication before Friday's game, but then the Leake trade happened. Apologies in advance for any numbers not updated to current figures as of publication, I'll update where I can.}
Every year, the Giants have a schedule full of games in August, leaving only two days off the whole month. That's why I've been suggesting a modified 6-man rotation during this period, to give our SP regular rest. This season, people are also worried because the Giants are facing teams who are all contenders: Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Astros, Nationals, Cards, Pirates, Dodgers, during the month of August (only the Braves are too far out of a playoff spot). That would be 27 out of 30 are contenders. Plus 18 of 30 (I'm including the Rangers first game of the series) are on the road.
The following was a comment I posted on Raising Matt Cain, and expanded (as I am wont to do) because I tweak. Plus, then, you know, the Leake trade happened, so this post got delayed to today instead, with some final tweaks.
Every year, the Giants have a schedule full of games in August, leaving only two days off the whole month. That's why I've been suggesting a modified 6-man rotation during this period, to give our SP regular rest. This season, people are also worried because the Giants are facing teams who are all contenders: Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Astros, Nationals, Cards, Pirates, Dodgers, during the month of August (only the Braves are too far out of a playoff spot). That would be 27 out of 30 are contenders. Plus 18 of 30 (I'm including the Rangers first game of the series) are on the road.
The following was a comment I posted on Raising Matt Cain, and expanded (as I am wont to do) because I tweak. Plus, then, you know, the Leake trade happened, so this post got delayed to today instead, with some final tweaks.
Friday, July 31, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: Trade for Mike Leake
Breaking news: the Giants have traded for SP Mike Leake from the Reds, a player who they have coveted for a long time. Extra Baggs has an account:
Baggs:
Baggs:
Leake, 27, was 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 21 starts for the Reds – numbers that the Giants did plenty to inflate when they scored nine runs against him on May 16. He is a ground ball machine whose strike-throwing ways should translate extremely well to AT&T Park. He’s also a perennial Gold Glove candidate and his hitting prowess will give even Madison Bumgarner a run for his money.
The Giants have long coveted Leake, going back to when the San Diego native was the eighth overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Arizona State. Giants scout Doug Mapson, who signed Greg Maddux back when he worked for the Cubs, said he has only written a Maddux comparison once to another amateur player. It was Leake.
Leake also knows Giants manager Bruce Bochy because he played with the manager’s son, Brett, along with Stephen Strasburg, on a travel ball team in his youth. Leake even grew up a Giants fan because of his father, whose favorite player is Willie Mays. All of this might be a factor after the season, since Leake is a free agent and the Giants planned on pursuing him over the winter even if they didn’t acquire him via trade. Now they get two months to make an attractive case while employing his services as they attempt to defend their World Series title.The Giants traded two prospects: corner infielder Adam Duvall and RHP Keury Mella. It is expected to be the only deal done before the trading deadline (Morse was just DFAed by the Dodgers, so he'll be available in 10 days for free). The Giants have not announced any other personnel moves other than that Tim Hudson will not be in the rotation now.
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