Your 2012 Giants Playoffs: No Crying Over Melk-less Playoffs

The Giants announced (and Baggarly shushed out with his internal sources) today (Schulman) that Melky Cabrera will not be included on the Giants playoff roster if and when he become eligible.

Your 2012 Giants: Melk-down Rallying Point?

Wow, very interesting article in the Chronicle by John Shea about how the Giants players are almost uniformly UNSUPPORTIVE of Melky's blunder:

Hardly a soul in the Giants' clubhouse expressed support for Melky Cabrera. Several players were given an opportunity to voice an opinion on their tainted teammate, and they didn't line up to say they'll have Cabrera's back during his 50-game suspension.

Players such as Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence said little more than it's time to move on. Others such as Buster Posey and Tim Lincecum made brief comments but politely refused to answer pressing questions. Others simply stayed in areas off limits to the media, knowing some things are better left unsaid.

It was a sign Cabrera no longer is welcomed in the clubhouse, a sign he won't wear a Giants uniform again. If the players (along with many fans) don't rally around the All-Star MVP, management certainly can't.

... After Cabrera's positive drug test, [the fans] felt cheated. So, apparently, did the players.

Your 2012 Giants: The Melky Aftermath: Survalist Mode

Brian Sabean was interviewed today (transcript of highlights via Schulman).  First the news about roster moves.  Justin Christian was brought up to take Melky's roster spot as 4th OF and Eric Hacker to take Brad Penny's spot (I guess Otero is back down too) as long reliever.  Here is the interview parts with my comments, as I usually do it.

Your 2012 Giants: We have Bad News and Even Badder News With a Dash of Good News

As reported across most Giants media outlets (SF Giants, CSN, Chronicle, and commented on by Ratto plus there is a Baggarly reaction on the CSN link), Melky Cabrera was suspended immediately for illegal usage of testosterone, covering the remaining 45 games in the season plus 5 games into the playoffs, should the Giants make it that far. 

How Much for the Melk?

I was going to tackle this topic, but with the news that the Giants and Melky's reps agreed to table any extension talks until after the season, it didn't seem worth the exercise anymore.  However, someone at Fangraphs posted their analysis on this and I thought I would refer to the post and list some of its conclusions with my thoughts.

That gives us a four-year, $46.2 million deal for Cabrera. And Assuming Cabrera demands five years, we can add in the final year on Rios’ deal, giving us a five-year, $58.7 million deal. Either way, Cabrera will make slightly over $10 million per season. 

Going back to Gordon’s deal, this actually makes sense. Gordon is our most recent comparison and he only made $37.5 million over four years. But since Melky will hit the market, he’ll likely command a larger salary. It looks like anywhere between $45 million to $60 million is what it’s going to take to sign Cabrera.

Your 2012 Giants: Epic Addendums

There were other epic-worthy feats this season plus additional info on other ones:

• Epic:  Shame on me for forgetting, but Melky Cabrera set a San Francisco Giants record for fewest plate appearances in a season to reach 100 hits, beating out Willie Mays for the SF franchise mark.  The Melk-man did it in 291 PA, while the Say Hey Kid did it in 295 PA.  Surprisingly, Rich Aurilia is third with 208 PA (From ESPN article on Giants finding the right puzzle pieces)
• More Mays Epic:  Melky in May 2012 had 51 hits, which beat Willie Mays SF Giants franchise record for May of 49 hits, plus tied for the most hits in any month, which Randy Winn had set in September 2005 (coincidentally, also his second month with the Giants, like Melky).  Found that from Andy Baggarly of CSN.
• Near Epic:  had Matt Cain been able to put together 2 shutout innings, the Giants would have tied the franchise record of 38 straight shutout innings, set in 1903 and 1933, which undoubtedly had Christy Mathewson and did have Carl Hubbell, two Giants Hall of Famers, contribute a number of those innings. (Alex Pavlovic of Merc at Giants Extra blog, plus the following ones)  Hubbell contributed 18 shutout innings in the first half of a July 2nd double-header (second game was also a shutout).  Unfortunately, no game by game results available for 1903.  But there were only 8 shutouts credited to the 1903 Giants and the Big Six had 3 of them (Iron Joe McGinnity had 3 of the others), so I would say the odds are pretty good that he was a part of that streak.
• Additional Epicness:  the Giants are the first team in MLB history to shut out four straight opponents where each opponent (Dodgers and Reds) entered the day in first place.  Though as I noted before here at my blog that records like these are really random and smacks of really stretching to find firsts.   But this one I'm OK with, as that is quite a feat, shutting out a first place team, especially in the middle of the season, when games are starting to become significant in the minds of most players and fans (though I have always felt, and I recently saw a player say this in a quote, might have  been Vogelsong, approrpriately enough given his game face, that the games in April are just as important as the ones in September, as a win is a win, it is just that most people place the emphasis on the games late in the season because they are now more aware of the consequences, at least for the playoff contenders.  But clearly they are important, as many teams fall out of it by now, like the Cubs, Padres, Rockies, Astros, Twins, and Mariners.)
• Additional Giants Epic:  Madison Bumgarner, with his 1-hit shutout at age 22, became just the fourth Giants pitcher 22 or younger in the live ball era (i.e. since 1920 when the MLB changed the ball plus had umpires change fresh balls for damaged balls) to throw a shutout allowing one hit or fewer.  Mike McCormick had two 3-hit shutouts in 1959 when he was 20 YO (he also had 5 no-hit innings shutout in a rain shortened game).  Juan Marichial had a 1-hit shutout in his first game of his career in 1960, at age 22.  And Matt Cain shutout the A's with a 1-hit shutout in 2006, at age 21, and he had just been skipped in the rotation (and had a relief appearance) to help him get over some issues (and how given the results).  And Cain would have had a 2-hit shutout at age 20 the season before had not one of the hits been a homer, most probably.

Giants Thoughts

Some other non-epic thoughts and stats:

• I've been following Brandon Belt's struggles with strikeouts and he had a sudden peak of strikeouts in recent games, as his 10-game average fell from a high of 84.4% on June 18, to a low of 70.0% on June 28th, when he struck out 3 times, before rebounding to 76.7% currently, with 9 straight PA's without a strikeout.  His 15-game average is now at 75.6%, falling from his peak of 82.2% on June 23rd, and his 7 game streak at 80% and above that last happened on Jun 27th (that 3 K game costed him).  However, his 20-game average finally reached 80% and currently sits at 80.3%.  His high previously was 79.6% on June 23rd.  He had never reached 80% in his 20-game average ever.
• With this achievement, I thought I would extend my view of his averages to 30 games.  He would start out his seasons in the low 70's (not that good, 85% is the threshold for good hitters), then fell into the 60's range for a long period, last season, the rest of the season, though he improved at the end of that season in his 10-game average, peaking at 76.7%.  This season, he returned to the 70's on June 19th and has slowly risen since then, peaking at his current 76.2%.  As noted before, he started really showing his changed and improved mechanics in his first homer game on June 12th, but had already been showing great improvement in the prior games, reaching a peak of 71.4% for his 10-game average on June 5th.  
• And while 85% is the goal he should have ultimately, the most important point right now is when he becomes a productive hitter, and he clearly is a much better and productive hitter in the high 70's to low 80's contact rate, than he is when he is under 70%.
• I had posted about Pablo Sandoval's recovery from his hamate bone surgery and when his power would return.  I would say that he appears to be coming out it, his 2 double game on June 25th could be the start of his return, in the games since, he has hit .292/.357/.583/.940, with 4 doubles and 1 homer, 5 XBH out of 7 hits, .291 OPS.  The fun stat here is that his BABIP is actually low for his career, only .300 during this stretch of 7 games, so he could get even hotter going forward.  
• Congrats too, to Panda and Buster Posey, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Cain for their All-Star selections.  The three hitters were voted in as starters, which I would note is most probably the first time ever for a Giants starting 3B or C (I did miss the 60's, but from my knowledge of Giants greats, while there may have been All-Stars among them, Bob Brenly comes to mind as a possibility, I don't think we've ever had one voted in as a starter.  Epic :^).
• Also, lucky for us, but Ryan Vogelsong, who has the 4th best ERA in the National League right now, was not chose to the All-Star game and he vows eternal effort to prove that he belongs, he might just ride that chip on his shoulder onto the Giants Wall of Fame with that attitude and sterling pitching (I think a player can qualify with 5 seasons and at least one All-Star appearance; Ryan made the All-Stars game last season - many viewed it as a Bochy pick not based on merit, hence his chip - and I just realized that they might count the first two seasons he appeared with the Giants, which would give him 4 already out of 5, so maybe I should change that to mean that he can ride that chip to another long-term extension deal after his two year deal ends after next season, maybe even before the 2013 season)
• Some things to worry about in July.  
• First off, Gregor Blanco returned to Earth and his April stat line, hitting only .218/.277/.355/.632 in July.  He is like Nate this season, hitting much better against LHP than RHP, with .286/.355/.417/.772 vs. LHP and .228/.327/.359/.686 vs. RHP.   Nate hasn't been Nate the past couple of seasons, hitting better finally against RHP than LHP, but unfortunately, he's been sucking against LHP:  .293/.364/.458/.823 vs. RHP, .103/.152/.207/.358 vs. LHP, in 2012.  I see a smattering of talk of trading Nate, but given this, I actually see more Nate starts coming up regularly.  Particularly given the second factoid that Angel Pagan, after his hot streak, cooled off totally, hitting only .245/.302/.306/.608 in July.  And that is life when you are striking out as much as either have been, their batting average can go from good to bad very quickly.  
• Not really worrisome but FYI, Joaquin Arias continued to suck as a hitter in June, hitting only .255/.288/.309/.597, despite a very good 89% contact rate and fast feet, his BABIP was only .280 for the month.  Ryan Theriot cooled off but more importantly, continues to get on base, hitting .307/.333/.351/.684 in June.  He also stole 8 bases.  
• Melky has cooled off to merely good.  He hit .300/.366/.422/.789 in April (.333 BABIP), but a scorching .429/.457/.647/1.104 in May (.475 BABIP), before returning to .304/.343/.441/.784 in June (.329 BABIP).  That is similar to his 2011 season, where his overall BABIP was .332 and his batting line was .305/.339/.470/.809.  His monthly OPS by month in 2011 was .737, .785, .713, .992, .832, and .798.  Still, in today's game, a high 700's OPS is still pretty good.
• Lastly, Hector Sanchez only hit .222/.216/.250/.466 in June in 10 starts, so this is not a good time to be using him more often in place of Posey.
• However, Belt has been doing very well, as noted, as well as Buster Posey, hitting .299/.379/.483/.861, plus Sandoval has started heating up as well, earning a move up the lineup.  Our middle offense is still looking good.

Calling the Melk-Man

I never realized this until yesterday, but Bill James Online has content that is free to the public (most are behind the paid wall, but some are free).  I ran across this interesting analysis of spring training stats that could be the sign of a breakout season.  In 2010, it highlighted Jose Bautista's breakout, then in 2011, caught on to Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon.

When perusing their list of potential breakouts (once I saw that they have a long list, I wasn't as impressed, but still interesting) for 2012, again Melky Cabrera's name came up and, as we all know, he's having another career year, so their 2013 list will undoubtedly bring up Melky as one of their successes.

But I wondered how the others are doing, what other breakouts are there, in terms of career years.  Here are the ones where I thought there was enough separation between 2012 vs. career and/or top season:

• Cody Ross:  .895 OPS vs. .785 career and .804 high.  However, I would note that he's not playing full-time, and he's never really been a full-time player, more of a platoon.  Plus, he's playing in an good hitter's park.  
• Carlos Ruiz:  .982 vs. .773 vs. .847.  And at age 33 too.
• Jonathan Lucroy:  .969 vs. 722 vs. .703, FYI didn't play full-time before
• Tyler Colvin:  .876 vs. .730 vs. .816, first year in Colorado, though
• A.J. Pierzitski:  .840 vs. .750 vs. 824 (that high was in 2003!)
• Melky Cabrera:  .932 vs. .746 vs. .809, looks like he'll be mentioned second year in row

Given the long list, that's not a lot of what I would call breakouts.  And that the problem, they defined breakout as beating their career SLG.  Ooops, gathered the wrong stats.  

Still, beating slugging usually would show up in OPS as well.  I doubt that a lot of them beat their career SLG  if their OPS doesn't beat their career OPS, because it is pretty hard to boost up OBP a lot, but pretty easy if you start hitting for more power.  But I don't got time to do the research again, and you can either accept my logic or not.

In any case, 12 of the 29 players have higher OPS in 2012 than career OPS, for what it's worth.

Ah, what the heck.  I still found the same players to be breakouts, the six above, plus Darwin Barney.  Among the 29 players, I found 13 to have higher SLG in 2012 than their career SLG.  Again, basically the same as the OPS differences, with just one additional guy, young Darwin Barney.

I also compiled ages, just in case it was young guys who predominate, but I didn't find that either.  

Of course, the season isn't over yet, maybe some may rise, but one would think maybe some may fall as well.  The percentage so far this season is roughly 40% vs. the 60% that they had been finding before.  And as I noted, half of those were just minorly over their career numbers, I feel that comparing to career high is a better sign of a breakout year, and by a good margin as well, not just edging out.  For example, Andre Ethier right now would qualify because his SLG of .484 beat out his career SLG of .480, but is significantly lower than his high of .510, over 5% less.  

2012 Giants: May PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of May 2012, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

The Melkman Cometh ... Perhaps to Stay?

I had wanted to post something on Melky Cabrera during the off-season, pulled a bunch of research, came up with a snazzy title :^), but never got around to posting one.  Just ran into my notes and he's been doing well, so I thought I would run with what I had before and give some further thoughts on maybe him sticking around longer.

Your 2012 Giants: Season So Far (10-9)

I'm noticing a mostly downcast dauber on the part of Giants fans and media.  Of course, that is probably strongly influenced by being only 2 outs away from being swept by the Reds.  Still, there are good things as well as bad things.

Mike Newman Prospect Chat on Fangraphs And Giants Spring Training!

On the eve of the start of the Giants spring training for the 2012 season, ran across a chat by a Mike Newman, who writes a blog named Scouting the Sally.  He writes for Fangraphs and, er, scouts the South Atlantic League, or Sally to afficionados.  He had been a player, scout and coach, and wanted to get back into the game in some way, and took this route.

Here are some key moneyshots of Giants and NL West prospects:

Brandon Belt

Comment From Tony in SLC:  Having a hard time letting go of the dream called Brandon Belt, if he gets playing time he's easily the 3rd best hitter on the team, right? Thursday February 16, 2012 4:16 Tony in SLC
Mike Newman: Well, Belt is teaching prospect followers that age-versus-level does matter regardless of the numbers. However, he really does need 600 plate appearances or the chance to go somewhere else. I can see Huff playing because he's being paid well, but Schierholtz? 28 with a .750 OPS is a find 4th outfielder, but no way he's a starter on a first division ball club.

obsessivegiantscompulsive:  Again, people assume the Giants don't like him.  They were the ones who discovered and nurtured him.  He is far from a failed prospect, he will get his chances, he is not like Freddy Lewis or John Bowker, or even Nate Schierholtz, all unheralded prospects, Belt was rated in the Top 20 last year and the Giants have been very good at identifying who to keep and who to not keep.  They know what they got, and they will give him a lot of chances. 

Given the comment by management about rushing prospects, I expect the Giants to be more conservative in 2012 in bringing him up.  Meaning first that he will need to beat out Nate Schierholtz for a starting spot in spring training, and if he doesn't, he'll start in AAA until either an OF or Huff struggles enough for the Giants to bring up Belt (assuming he isn't totally struggling).  I hope that doesn't happen, but you never know - just look at last season.

My expectation is that Huff will be good, high 700 OPS range, but not 2010 good, Pagan will be an OK placesetter but nothing special enough that Gary Brown will be blocked, and Melky will be good enough that the Giants will probably try to sign him to an extension of some sort, as he'll be a free agent at the end of the season.  However, as much as I like Nate, he has a history of extreme hot and coldness plus eventual injuries that I expect one of them to happen, resulting in the opening of 1B for Belt at some point, pushing Huff to LF.

But that comment about Nate starting not a sign of a contender is a result of what I call the lack of understanding how powerful it is to have a pitching staff and fielding defense as great as the Giants have.  With such a strong overall defense, keeping the RA/G very low and among the top 3 the past three seasons, and which I expect to happen again in 2012, you only need an average offense to win.  And Nate, if he can handle a full season at .750 OPS is average, when you include how great he is on defense plus how well he runs the bases, generating a lot of extra bases each season, is perfectly fine for us in RF.

Gary Brown

Comment From Jack: From most top prospect lists, I get the feeling that Gary Brown is one of the more controversial players. Why, do you think that is?  Thursday February 16, 2012 4:54 Jack
Mike Newman: College players dominate the California League. He more or less did what he was supposed to do. Francisco Peguero did the same thing and was a meh prospect. Should Gary Brown repeat in double-A, I'll buy into his production much more.

ogc:  As nicely as Brown did, I do agree to a certain extent that Brown's overall numbers were not great, and thus a concern.  However, that is why you need to sometimes look into his monthly splits and see what he actually did. 

First Inning provides his splits and his April/May look like one talent performance set, then he was out of sync in June and then July/August (Sept small samples; for example his K% of 16% would be OK 12% if you take away one strikeout) is another set.  Initially, he was striking out a bit, and borderline OK, around 85% contact rate, which is the mark of a good hitter.  He also walked nicely in April but settled into his talent rate in May.  He struggled in July and struck out a lot more.  Then he got his strike rate down, kept his walking, and looked a lot better than July, clearly, or even early in the season.  He adjusted.

His overall .405 OBP looks great, but if you take out his struggles in July then he was around .430 OBP for the season.  His OPS of .922 was pretty good, but not clearly outstanding in the league.  However, without his July, he would have been around 1.100 OPS for the season, which is extremely good for the season.

Of course, the key question is whether he's going to struggle for a month again in AA, then AAA, then the MLB continuously.  They way I view it, prospects will have these in-season adjustments.  Obviously, if he can keep it going for the whole season, that makes it much easier to discern, yeah, he's good.  But obviously, at some point, for the better players, the league can't adjust back, and he's consistently good, that month would be gone from his full season performance.  I think one month of adjustment, versus many months of good play is what you want to see on the players who are more borderline in terms of prospect certainty (many doubted Brown's ability to adjustment, particularly his ability to take walks).

I really like his track record of adjustments.  He wasn't that great in college, he adjusted and by his junior season, he had the highest OPS of any hitter in the Big West League.  In the Cape Cod League, his first year was not that good, but he came back the next year and he was pretty good.  In the pros, where there is a lot more games, that adjustment happens in-season instead of between seasons.

I also like his attitude that I've see in all his interviews online.  These have been a boon, in my eye, to getting a feel for the guy's psyche.  He has a good head on his shoulder, does not take himself seriously, and just views the challenge as getting better all the time. 

The good news too is that with his great defense, he could rise to the majors and be an average player sooner because with his speed and good eye at the plate, his BABIP should be above average, helping him to keep his OPS at least replacement level to begin with as he adjusts to the league and improves.  And his OBP should be good enough initially to justify inserting him at leadoff sooner than later, and the power should come later, as that is part of his game that he says he works on, in the interviews I've seen.

I've very excited by him, I was excited after my analysis after the Giants drafted him and I'm even more excited now that he's had a great first pro season.  As much as the Giants talked about not rushing prospects, I think that if he does well in the Eastern League to start, they will promote him to AAA by mid-season, to see if he can take over the lead-off/CF position well enough so that they can let Pagan go in the off-season or if they need a lead-off guy for 2013.  I am drinking the Kool-Aid enough to think that he will do this and get some call up experience in September, before making the team in 2013.

LAD's Rubby De La Rosa

Comment From Rick: Did I read that Rubby De La Rosa has the best fastball that you've seen in the Sally ? Thursday February 16, 2012 5:00 Rick
Mike Newman: No, Rubby has the best fastball I've ever scouted... period. He never pitched in the Sally. I scouted him twice in Chattanooga last season before his promotion.

ogc:  Ugh, that's not good to hear.  He could help the D-gers recover from losing Kuroda, someone to watch for 2012.

AZ's Paul Goldschmidt

Comment From Philip: Speaking of 80 power, what was Goldschmidt considered to have when he was there? Thursday February 16, 2012 5:05 Philip
Mike Newman: I'm honestly not a big Goldschmidt guy, but may have been a little too hard on him when I scouted him last summer. I saw a touch of slider bat speed and wondered if it would translate well to the bigs, or if he'd be destined to make a living off of bullpens and #5 starters. I'm still not sold, but a 25-home run first baseman with strong walk rates has considerable value for sure.

ogc:  I am not a big Goldschmidt guy either.  Looking at his numbers, I think he was very lucky and will have a regression season in 2012, where playing the full season he'll be exposed.  Still, as he noted, power like that could keep him in the lineup, he could be their replacement for that strikeout-homerun 3B Mark Reynolds who they traded to the Orioles.   But back to the Giants, a regression like that will be good for the Giants, they will probably have to sit him down, and he'll probably have a season similar to Belt's 2011, except that he'll get a lot more AB's and playing time, because I don't think that they have any good alternatives.

SD's Cashner/Rizzo Trade

Comment From AJ: Who will end up getting the better deal in the Rizzo/Cashner trade. Is rizzo's wing too long to be abel to hit for avg and/or good power numbers in chi? Thursday February 16, 2012 5:21 AJ
Mike Newman: I didn't understand that deal from SD's perspective. For Chicago, buying low on Rizzo for Cashner who seems like a closer (maybe) in the end strikes me as a steal.

ogc:  Yeah, I didn't get the trade either unless SD is pretty sure that Cashner is a future dominant closer.  Then again, maybe they saw something about Rizzo that didn't look good to them and sold low.

SD's Casey Kelly

Comment From Tom: ETA and ceiling for Casey Kelly? And general question - do you think too much emphasis is put on K and BB rates below AA ball for pitchers? Thursday February 16, 2012 5:29 Tom
Mike Newman: Kelly will be up this year and now appears to be more of a mid-rotation guy. As for K/BB rates, for older prospects, they are laughably blown out of proportion. For age appropriate guys, they deserve a closer look for sure. however the numbers can be tricky as hitters simply can't handle fringe breaking balls at the lower levels in general leading to crazy numbers.

ogc:  This chat make the A-Gon trade look worse and worse.  Rizzo is sold low on for maybe a closer, and Kelly is now profiling as a middle rotation guy now.  For A-Gon, you would hope to get more.  Maybe that's why Hoyer left now, while the getting's good, as he maybe felt that he was on the ledge with SD's management.  Good the Giants if they don't get good value for A-Gon, that and the Latos trade could help to keep them in the cellar.

I highlighted the last two sentences because I believe in them.  If the prospect is older than the league, then his extra experience and development should lead him to dominate, so you have to take any good performance with a large grain of salt.  If the prospect is age appropriate, then the way I see it, you want to see him among the league's leaders, as confirmation of his goodness.  This is especially so for prospects who are younger than the league.  The more of any outlier they are, the better the probability that he can translate that to the majors.

If you look at the league leaders, you will always find players who are older than the league up there, and if you go far back enough and look to see if they are in the majors, most are not.  They will need to prove that they are good at every level they rise to.  And most usually fail at some point.

But if you find age appropriate (Shandler books says 22 YO is age appropriate for AAA, 21 for AA, 20-ish for Advanced A, and 19-20 for A), then if he is among the leaders then that is a good performance for him.  And if he is younger than these ages, then his rating goes even higher.  These types of players have a greater probability of making it in the majors, at minimum as a regular starter for a while, and if he develops, an all-star.

Giants 2012 Arbitration Cases: Dust Clearing

Thought I would run down the Giants arbitration cases, using MLB Trade Rumor's estimates as guidelines (but not absolutes) and reports on recent signings.

Posey Power Activated!

Clearly I have to write this post first.  People still think that the offense is not good enough to win with.  Notice the difference in my language, "good enough to win" versus "good offense".  It is a natural fan inclination to think "more, better, best" for anything regarding their favorite team, that is why it is helpful to fight that inclination and think through some obvious changes to the offense, even as it exists now, and realize that your internal panic alarm going off is going off for naught.

One of the clearly big differences is that Buster Posey is returning to the lineup.  Sure, people are glad about that but they don't really understand the magnitude of that change from Posey as starter versus Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside as co-starters (with a sprinkling of Hector Sanchez).  I will try to make that clearer with some analysis.

In 2011, the four catchers, by Bill James Runs Created methodology, created a total of 49 Runs Created (RC).  Also, collectively, by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), they saved a total of 7 runs.  However, in 2012, it should just be Posey and, for now, probably Stewart, at the catching position.

Bill James projections has Posey creating 91 RC in 2012.  Unfortunately, there is no Stewart forecast there, but they have projected Whiteside at .609 OPS and 16 RC.  ZiPS projections just came out, and while there is no Whiteside projection, there is a Stewart projection for .640 OPS.  Assuming Stewart produces at least as much as Whiteside projects, that's 107 RC from the catching position in 2012 per Bill James projections.  That is a +58 RC improvement over 2011.

Defensively, assuming Posey plays as well as he did in 2011 and projecting out the innings he caught, he had 2 DRS in 361.0 innings in 2011, and triple that is roughly what the top catchers caught in 2011, so let's call that 6 DRS.  That leaves about 396.0 innings for the backup.  Stewart in 2011 had 9 DRS in 460.1 innings.  Assuming some drop, as that is high, I think +6 is reasonable, but even if he did only 1 DRS, the defense would still be the same as in 2011.  But going with the more realistic scenario, that works out to +12 DRS which is 5 runs better than the +7 DRS the Giants catchers had in 2011 (Whiteside was -3 DRS and Sanchez -1 DRS).

Looking at their baserunning, it appears that they were roughly equal, though there should be some improvement there because Posey and Stewart added bases via their baserunning whereas Whiteside subtracted.  But as there is no run equivalency provided, it is hard to estimate the effect on run production, other than it would add to it.  Still even at 4 bases to a run, the numbers involved is so small that there is a negligible increase in run production.  Call it even.

Assuming a base RA of 580 or 3.58 RA/game (basically the average of the past two seasons), that +58 RC results in an additional 6.55 wins and that +5 DRS results in an additional 0.60 wins.  Together, that adds up to 7.15 wins.

Thus, losing Posey cost the Giants approximately 7 wins in 2011, roughly 6.5 wins on offense and 0.5 wins on defense.  They won 86 games in 2011, so had Posey not been taken out by a rogue runner with no conscience (or at least was acting like one, which is the same effect), the Giants probably would have won somewhere in the 93 game range.  With the Cards at 90 wins, even if this is off a little, most probably the Giants would have won the Wild Card slot, and not the Cards, who eventually won the World Championships (so they probably should send a full share of the championship money to Cousins, because they might not have made the playoffs had he not took Posey out).

Looking to 2012, the Giants 2011 offense was roughly even with the defense, which works out to  a roughly .500 record per Pythagorean.  Adding 7 wins to that puts the Giants at 88 wins for 2012 currently.

The addition of Melky Cabrera, according to Bill James added 70 RC to 2012, by his projections.  Torres, Rowand, and Ross collectively had around 60 RC.  By DRS, Melky was -3 DRS but collectively the Giants CF were 0 DRS (while Torres is good, Ross and Rowand were not).  So that is a roughly 7 run improvement, which is roughly a one win improvement.  That puts us at 89 wins.  And ZiPS projects him to hit .284/.330/.435/.765, which is higher than the .745 OPS that Bill James has him hitting.

However, I would note that any projections assume that Cabrera did not break out in 2011.  Projection methodologies are not savvy enough yet to figure out when a batter or pitcher broke out, for sure.  If he repeats his 2011 season - and that is possible, as the Bill James park factors for LHB and RHB is almost the same between KC and SF, and the given reason for his improvement was a dedication to conditioning and getting into shape - that would add 22 RC, or about 2.5 wins.

Now that assumes that there is no improvement anywhere else.  But there was a lot of underperformance in 2011 across the whole team.

Giants 1B only hit .258/.318/.414/.732.  Between Huff and Belt, there has to be an improvement there in 2012 offensively.  Pablo's replacements at 3B didn't quite match him (obviously), and Giants 3B "only" hit .294/.339/.478/.817.  Sandoval is projected by Bill James to hit .311/.363/.525/.888, by ZiPS to hit .299/.347/.497/.844, and he hit .315/.357/.552/.909 in 2011 (again, hard for systems to judge whether 2010 was an aberration, so that damps down forecasts, though James is pretty close).

Giants SS only hit .210/.265/.299/.564 in 2011.  For Crawford, Bill James projects .232/.297/.340/.637, ZiPS .225/.291/.336/.627.  Giants LF only hit .222/.310/.374/.684, while Bill James projects .266/.358/.482/.840 for Brandon Belt, ZiPS .268/.365/.452/.817 (right now I think Belt is the starting LF, given the personnel we have now).

So basically, the Giants look like a 89 win team, or thereabouts.  90 wins was necessary to get into the playoffs in 2011. They should already have it via Sandoval at 3B, as he should hit much better than what 3B hit collectively, as long as he is healthy, heck, together the 3B had roughly 90 RC (and that is ignoring the great defense Pablo played) and Bill James projects Sandoval at 102 RC for 2012, which is roughly a 1.5 win improvement.  

The Giants should also get improvement at 1B, SS, LF, or CF, as it is unlikely whoever plays there in 2012 could be any worse.  The possible improvements at the other four positions are buffers against declines at RF (since Beltran is not around and Schierholtz is the starter there) and in the pitching staff.  Shoot, Huff could add around 5 wins by returning anywhere close to what he did in 2010, by himself.  And if Belt could actually reach his projections, that would probably add another 5 wins in LF.

Thus, that is why I see the Giants offense being no worse than a 90 win team in 2012.  And there are a lot of areas of improvement where we could push that up, potentially a lot, depending on who delivers and who don't.  But conservatively, I don't see why the Giants are not competitive in 2012, as is, and could be another blockbuster team, like 2003, if the cards fall right for them, particularly Huff and Belt, though Vogelsong repeating would also greatly improve things as well.

It's Begun: Giants Trade Dirty for Melky Cabrera

Just read the news, oh boy:  Hank Schulman blogged that the KC writer tweeted that Jonathan Sanchez has been traded for CF Melky Cabrera.  He was able to confirm it.  There is also an article on Yahoo on it as well, which reported that Ryan Verdugo was also included in the trade.

Giants Thoughts

Not too surprising because Sabean in recent interviews noted that the Giants might have to trade a starting pitcher.  That leaves the rotation at Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, and Barry Zito, with Eric Surkamp as the first guy up in case of need.  I also didn't think that Zito would end up in the bullpen as some had suggested, no way that would happen.  His greatest value is as a starter, particularly if he can return to his 2009-10 form, which was pretty good.

This also made sense because Sanchez was the most obvious to trade, in terms of value in return as well as lack of future value, because of his agent, Scott Boras.  Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner look like keepers, if at all possible, while Vogelsong and Zito would not yield much in trade, if anything in Zito's case.

This is a great trade assuming the Melky continues hitting the way he did in 2011, a breakout offensive season for him.  He plays CF, his OBP is decent enough for leadoff, and he has some speed judging by his SB, he just needs to hone his skill down to achieve a higher success stealing rate, which the Giants appear capable of doing, they were able to improve Randy Winn's  percentage in his time here.

His agent is NOT Scott Boras, so we might even be able to sign him long-term, and his hitting is good enough to move to the corners if necessary.  As much as I love Nate Schierholtz and believe in Brandon Belt, they both still need to prove themselves.  As do Melky as well, for that matter.  And his defense could be below average in CF while above average on the corners, according to Baseball-Reference.com, so that fits with him holding CF until Gary Brown is ready.

Another nice thing about him is that 2012 will be his 27 YO season, so he is headed into his prime years, potentially with us, if we end up signing him to a longer term contract, maybe an extension into his first or second year of free agency, which would still leave him at around 30 for his first big free agent contract, two good seasons won't necessarily get him that kind of big money.

Verdugo I think is thrown in because of the injuries that Sanchez had in 2011 that reduced his value a bit, as that leaves a question mark on his 2012 season.  Also, Sanchez is 29 next season, so he is a bit older then Melky, so that also justifies giving up another player.  I can live with that.  Verdugo struck out a lot but also walked a lot, and was a bit old for AA.  And the Giants have been very good in deciding which pitchers to give up in trades so far.

I like this trade a lot.  Clears up the CF situation, he's a pretty good player in exchange for a pretty good pitcher, he's a good hitter, and can play all OF positions, which gives Bochy a lot of flexibility in setting the lineup, depending on who is hitting and who is not (or injured).  Don't really see any need to sign any other OF now, OF appears to be set at Belt/Torres, Cabrera, Schierholtz, unless, of course, they somehow sign Carlos Beltran.