MLB.com's 2012 Giants Top 20 Prospects: Post-season Edition

The MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo publishes a Top 100 Overall and Top 20 by Team ranking both before the season as well as after.  He just released the post-season rankings.  The Top 100 is here.  The 2012 Giants Top 20 is here.

Giants Prospects in Mayo's Top 50

Jonathan Mayo, the MLB's Minors expert, released his Top 50 prospect list for 2010 recently. I like to see what he is thinking because he was the one who turned me on to Tim Lincecum in the draft and got me to believe that he would fall to us in the draft (but nobody's perfect, he thought we would pick some strong-armed big body, Daniel Bard I think; but if I recall right, he nailed the first 8-10 picks in the 2009 draft though). He has Buster Posey as the 4th prospect and Madison Bumgarner as the 10th (which is a drop for MadBum, I think, from last year, but Posey rose from the high teens).

In the article I linked to, he did a team comparison showing how many of the Top 50 prospects that each team had. The Giants were tied with a bunch of teams with 2 of the Top 50 prospects. Texas, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City led with 4 prospects each.

But I was bothered by that comparison because we have 2 of the Top 10 prospects on the list, and only Texas beat us to being the first team to achieve that, and they are the only two teams to achieve that. So I tried a weighted scoring methodology so that a team that has a higher ranked prospect would get more credit for it, instead of just a simple count because that credits a team for a 50th prospect as much as a team with the 1st prospect. I gave the #1 prospect, Jason Heyward (wow, not Stephan Strasburg, though he was 2nd) 50 points, then one less point (49) for the 2nd, and so on until the 50th got 1 point.

Using that scoring system, here is the ranking by team:

1. Tampa Bay 141
2. Texas 131
3. San Francisco 88
4. Florida 74
5. Toronto 69
6. Atlanta 67
7. Milwaukee 64
8. Washington 60
9. Kansas City 55
10. Boston 53

So, using the article's comparison, the Giants come in tied for 5th with 12 other teams and thus look like just like any other team(plus with 50 slots and 30 teams, there is an average of 1.67 prospects per team). However, using my methodology, which weighs each prospect, the Giants come in a clear third place, far behind the leaders Tampa Bay and Texas but as far ahead of the 4th place team, Florida, as Florida is from the 8th place team Washington.

I think the Giants should still be on the higher side in 2011, close to 10th at least. Posey is probably going to be in the minors long enough that he should not lose his rookie status in 2010 and thus be eligible for ROY in 2011, now that Molina is around. Thus the Giants should have him ranked highly again, and he could move up a spot or two.

I'm not sure about Bumgarner, as it is still unclear to me whether the Giants are serious about starting him or looking for a 5th starter. Obviously, if he's still in the minors, he'll probably stay there a good portion of the season, particularly to avoid Super-2 status, and would still be a rookie for 2011. But obviously, if he starts in the majors, 2010 would be his rookie season and he would not be in the ranking next year.

And, at the moment, there is nobody who clearly will make the Top 50 in 2011 to take Bumgarner's place. Angel Villalona has the best set of skills and performance for making the list, in that he had the cred previously and could regain that cred with a good season in 2011. However, with no visa to even enter the U.S. because of his legal difficulties at home due to the shooting death that involved him, he'll be lucky to play in 2011, let alone bring things up a notch. Thomas Neal had a great 2009 but will have to raise things a notch again in AA in 2010 to have any hope of making the Top 50. Brandon Crawford could improve his chances by hitting in AA like he did in San Jose in 2009, but he too would need to raise things a notch. Roger Kieschnick could also put his name into play by greatly reducing his strikeouts and doing very well in AA, but like the others, unlikely to do enough to reach the Top 50.

The best chance would be if Zach Wheeler busts out of the gates like Bumgarner did in his full pro season. Wheeler could reach the Top prospect ranks if he can pitch like Bumgarner did. But not every young pitcher is going to do well in the minors, no matter how good they looked as an amateur, particularly high school pitchers. Hopefully your scouts did their job, but until he pitches for real, all we have is a hope that his skills will translate into the pro ranks.

I expect Wheeler to start out in Augusta, much like Bumgarner, both because of his strong skill set as well as its closeness to his hometown, which should help with his adjustment to the pro ranks, lessening homesickness, as well as having family and friends being able to make his games.

So it does not look probable that the Giants will keep their top spot, but there are some possibilities, mainly Bumgarner spending the year in the minors and Wheeler dominating in A-ball, that suggest that the Giants could stay up there, and perhaps could go up a spot or two, depending on how many of the other teams' prospects graduate in 2010.

Giants Farm System: BA Ranks Third for 2010

Baseball America recently released on their draft blog website their grades for farm systems in the majors. The Giants and the Red Sox were tied for the highest GPA for the years 2005-2008. This covers how well BA thought the team drafted for that season. The Giants have 3 "A" grades in a row and probably should get a pretty good grade for 2009 if Wheeler pans out the way the scouts and rankers have rated him plus we picked up Tommy Joseph and Chris Dominguez.

In addition, BA published on Sports Illustrated an article on the "MLB's best and worse farm systems." There, the Giants rank third in the majors for the best farm system. Here is what BA wrote about the Giants:

3. Giants: San Francisco has two elite talents in catcher Buster Posey and left-hander Madison Bumgarner, both of whom should contribute to the major league club in 2010. The Giants also have depth, despite the uncertain status of slugger Angel Villalona, who was stripped of his U.S. visa after an off-season murder charge in his native Dominican Republic. San Francisco has shortstop options, some solid bats (such as outfielder Thomas Neal) and solid depth, but it's really about the stars.

The odd thing is that they didn't even mention Zach Wheeler, who they ranked 3rd on their Top Ten Prospect list for 2010, nor mention Tommy Joseph, who was 6th. Still, the Giants farm system had the best record in the majors, going 411-286 (.590) with four of the six affiliates reaching the playoffs and San Jose and Salem Keizer winning their league titles.

And I found the SI article because of an article on Baseball Analysts titled, "The Value of a Good Farm System" by Sky Andrecheck. The author was wondering about the value of the Baseball America annual rankings, so he did statistical regression analysis, using many variables, to see how much value is delivered in the future to the team based on where Baseball America ranked them in any particular season. What he found is that any team's ranking has a statistically significant relationship with the team's winning percentage still eight years later. This implies that when things are going well, they continue to do well for many years afterward.

The Giants are among the top teams expected to reap additional wins from their farm system, I roughly estimate 18 additional wins due to their farm system. As I noted above, the Giants were ranked 3rd for 2010 with their farm system by BA. The ranking will probably fall greatly for 2011 because Bumgarner should not be a rookie anymore, and Wheeler should not be ready to equal Bumgarner's status unless he comes out the chute like Lincecum, which is doubtful since he's a high school draftee. With the Molina signing, Posey is all but assured to spend 2010 in AAA learning defense and honing his hitting, presumably becoming the starter in 2011. But BA is not infallible, they severely misjudged what Pablo Sandoval could be, which should have boosted their ranking in 2007 and 2008 above wherever they were.

I think the Top Ten ranking next year will include some solid prospects in Neal, Joseph, Dominguez, Roger Kieschnick, Brandon Crawford, Francisco Peguero, Rafael Rodriguez, Nick Noonan, Jason Stoffel, Hector Sanchez, and I still expect good things from Angel Villalona. And, of course, it will be led by Buster Posey.

Giants in the Top 100's

Recently, Baseball America published their Top 100 list, and Baseball Prospectus did that earlier in a post as well. Also, I picked up Deric McKamey's book as well.

BA Top 100

The Giants prospects were ranked there:

• 9th: Madison Bumgarner
• 14th: Buster Posey
• 44th: Angel Villalona
• 45th: Tim Alderson

BP Top 100

The Giants prospects were ranked there:

• 3rd: Madison Bumgarner
• 9th: Buster Posey
• 47th: Angel Villalona
• 60th: Tim Alderson

McKamey Top 100

The Giants prospects were ranked there:

• 5th: Madison Bumgarner
• 21st: Buster Posey
• 43rd: Tim Alderson
• 61st: Angel Villalona

Overall Average Ranking

• 6th: Madison Bumgarner
• 15th: Buster Posey
• 49th: Tim Alderson
• 51st: Angel Villalona

The Giants farm system has come a long way in a short period, first with Villalona, then Bumgarner and Alderson, then Posey. One commenter in the BA Chat on the Top 100 noted that it looks possible that the Giants could have 4 players in the Top 20 for the 2010 Top 100 list because none of them should graduate to majors this season. BA agreed.

However, BA says the ETA for the top 3 is 2010 (2012 for Villalona), so the Giants dominance of the Top 50 will only last a couple of seasons unless Rafael Rodriguez is as good as the money we paid him, the #6 pick for 2009 rises fast too (possible, many picked that high ranks that high at least initially), and someone else rises high too (Henry Sosa? Ehire Adrianza?) to join Villalona on the list in 2011 and 2012. The future of the Giants is looking good.