I heard the news today, about a lucky man who made the grade: Madison Bumgarner signs with the D-backs for 5 years, $85M, or $17M per season, but with $15M deferred, averages $14M during contract.
Baggarly reported that the Giants went as high as 4 years, $70M. Baggarly reported that from his talks with Bumgarner before, Arizona was clearly of interest to him because he and his wife loves the area, and has a ranch there, which they can then live at for most of the year now that he works nearby.
Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
The Linceum Conundrum
Tim Lincecum is a free agent, and his future is debated vigorously by Giants fans. His showcase, which he said would happen in January is so far MIA. What should the Giants do, sign him or let him go?
Monday, November 24, 2014
Your 2015 Giants: Panda-Less
As reported by all our good beat writers, Pablo Sandoval has moved on to "new challenges" with the Boston Red Sox. The Giants in their last try at negotiations (they were not afforded the chance to match Boston), gave Sandoval a great bid: 5 years and $95M, plus a team option for a 6th year, and indicated that they could go higher (not sure how that would be communicated, though, seems to be a CYA info released to the reporters because if I were Sandoval's agent, I would then say, "well, how much higher?" Why even bother mentioning that?).
It is clear to the reporters that the rumor that the Sandoval team felt that Pablo was disrespected and thus was not returning to the Giants appears to be true. It appears that they used the Giants interest to get the Red Sox to up their contract offer. Boston is rumored to have offered 5 years and roughly $100M, more details will probably come out before Thanksgiving (and they were rumored to want some sort of weight clause).
ogc thoughts
Whew, we dodged a huge bullet here!
I am one of the ones who feel that losing him is not a big deal. He's being paid way over what he's worth, in my eyes, and so I can let go. Yes, he was a nice (and fun) contributor to our grand golden era, but to me, it was our pitching that won the championships for us. Yes, it is certainly big news, HUGE news, but for that price, I'm OK with letting him go.
Offense in the playoffs is mostly randomness and BABIP-mess, that's why you get the weird MVPosition Players over the years, like Gene Tenace, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Bucky Dent. Performance that you can rely on is pitching, as Cain, Bumgarner, Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Wilson, even Lincecum in the playoffs. Not all pitching, but that is where scouting and player development comes in.
Furthermore, another reason it is not a big deal to me because we are set in our lineup even without him. Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence is a good 1-5. Belt, Posey, Pence have better 3 year batting line than Panda in 2012-2014. Crawford would have been slightly better than average batting 6th in 2014, he had .713 OPS and average NL 6th hitter .696 OPS. I think he has more growth offensively in 2015.
I'm assuming we are picking up a good hitting LF who would then bat 6th and Crawford would be a good 7th hitter (NL average .689 OPS). Average 8th hitter has .625 OPS, Arias, Adrianza and Duffy hit close to that in sporadic regular play, I'm actually looking forward to seeing what one of them can do with regular ABs.
There are other alternatives that I've brought up that most probably won't happen. One is moving Belt to LF, opening up 1B. Then they could start Ishikawa there in a platoon with Posey. Another alternative is to start sharing C and 1B between Posey and Susac, with Posey the starting catcher and Susac the backup catcher when not starting at 1B (in this scenario, we could still have Hector Sanchez as the third catcher and main PH, saving him from many more concussions; he also played 1B nicely in spring training and probably willing to try other positions as well). There are no real good 3B alternatives, just Headley, but 1) the Yankees sound like they want to keep him and 2) he's not really that good in any case, for the money.
Post-mortem
I think Pablo will eventually come to regret this decision and fire his agent, as well as be mad at all his inner circle of yes-men who pushed him to move on because they thought that he was being disrespected. He's going to be miserable once the boo-birds come out when he hits his first tough spot: look at all the Giants fans coming out of the woodwork in April when he wasn't hitting, complaining about him being fat, and square that, and that's the fan pressure he will have in Boston. Maybe he will finally man up and be the star he appeared to be in 2009 and 2011. But I don't think so.
It is going to be exponentially worse in Boston, where he has no built-up reserve of tolerance and affection, as he had with Giants fans. Fans there will expect great hitting from the get-go and will complain whenever he slumps, and he regularly gets into one, often related to recovering from an injury. For he is not a healthy player, he will be on the DL at some point almost every year, for one reason or another. If he thought the Giants were disrespectful, when until his first major slump.
And a miserable Pablo, we've seen how he acts and hits: in 2010, he spent the season in turmoil, pending divorce, custody battle over daughter, mom yards away from being incinerated in the San Bruno explosion, and his reaction was to get really fat, so fat that he couldn't hit RHP, so fat that he was benched during the World Series because the Giants felt that Renteria, who barely played that season, was a better alternative at SS (shifting Uribe to 3B), even though he hit 1 for 16 in the NLCS.
What Now?
I'm very interested in what they might do with these dollars now that Sandoval has moved on. But not signing Peavy though, that would be like dodging a bullet only to get skewered by a spear. Between the eyes.
The Giants can now accept a deal for either a 1B (Belt moves to LF), 3B, or LF which a team wants to dump his salary for a lower prospect, but a player who would still be productive for the Giants. As I noted above, won't take much of a hitter to provide a positive contribution to the lineup in the 6th spot.
The rumors is that the Giants are now kicking the tires on Lester, who would be a fine addition to the rotation. Unfortunately, talk is that he turned down a huge contract with the Red Sox, and we could be looking at 6 years and $132M in order to sign him. I would rather pass. The Giants have also reported that they have significant interest in the two Cuban free agents, OF Yasmany Thomas and SS Yoan Moncada. I'm very interested in Moncada, sounds pretty great. Not sure what other pitching we might be able to pick up, but that would be a nice area to add a great 5th starter who could be at least mid-rotation.
For 3B, I would be happy with the Giants giving Duffy and Adrianza a chance to grab the starting 3B spot and see what they can do with regular playing time, much like Panik last season, with Arias as the floor on production, because he plays defense at 3B as well as Sandoval, and would be OK as an 8th hitter. As I had noted above, we are set in the top of the lineup with Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, and Pence, that's a good looking top of the lineup through the middle, and Crawford in 2014 hit better than the average 6th place hitter in the NL. Heck, he was not that much worse than Sandoval and was better during parts of the season.
I'll be happy if the Giants sign a good hitting LF (Morse?) or trade for one (Cespedes?), and he could hit 6th with Crawford being an even better 7th place hitter. And Arias, Duffy, and Adrianza each did not hit much worse than the average 8th place hitter, lets see what one of them can do with regular starts. Sandoval's hitting was a luxury, not a necessity.
And ultimately, not much better than any other team's 6th or 7th place hitter. Is that what you want to pay $20M per season for? I don't. Let's see what Sabean and gang can do with that money now.
I thank Sandoval for his years of great service for us, but it's time to move on, and see what our young guys can do in his place or what we can acquire from the marketplace, whether free agent or through trade. I wish him no ill-will, but I won't wish him good luck either, we might face him at some point.
It is clear to the reporters that the rumor that the Sandoval team felt that Pablo was disrespected and thus was not returning to the Giants appears to be true. It appears that they used the Giants interest to get the Red Sox to up their contract offer. Boston is rumored to have offered 5 years and roughly $100M, more details will probably come out before Thanksgiving (and they were rumored to want some sort of weight clause).
ogc thoughts
Whew, we dodged a huge bullet here!
I am one of the ones who feel that losing him is not a big deal. He's being paid way over what he's worth, in my eyes, and so I can let go. Yes, he was a nice (and fun) contributor to our grand golden era, but to me, it was our pitching that won the championships for us. Yes, it is certainly big news, HUGE news, but for that price, I'm OK with letting him go.
Offense in the playoffs is mostly randomness and BABIP-mess, that's why you get the weird MVPosition Players over the years, like Gene Tenace, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Bucky Dent. Performance that you can rely on is pitching, as Cain, Bumgarner, Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Wilson, even Lincecum in the playoffs. Not all pitching, but that is where scouting and player development comes in.
Furthermore, another reason it is not a big deal to me because we are set in our lineup even without him. Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence is a good 1-5. Belt, Posey, Pence have better 3 year batting line than Panda in 2012-2014. Crawford would have been slightly better than average batting 6th in 2014, he had .713 OPS and average NL 6th hitter .696 OPS. I think he has more growth offensively in 2015.
I'm assuming we are picking up a good hitting LF who would then bat 6th and Crawford would be a good 7th hitter (NL average .689 OPS). Average 8th hitter has .625 OPS, Arias, Adrianza and Duffy hit close to that in sporadic regular play, I'm actually looking forward to seeing what one of them can do with regular ABs.
There are other alternatives that I've brought up that most probably won't happen. One is moving Belt to LF, opening up 1B. Then they could start Ishikawa there in a platoon with Posey. Another alternative is to start sharing C and 1B between Posey and Susac, with Posey the starting catcher and Susac the backup catcher when not starting at 1B (in this scenario, we could still have Hector Sanchez as the third catcher and main PH, saving him from many more concussions; he also played 1B nicely in spring training and probably willing to try other positions as well). There are no real good 3B alternatives, just Headley, but 1) the Yankees sound like they want to keep him and 2) he's not really that good in any case, for the money.
Post-mortem
I think Pablo will eventually come to regret this decision and fire his agent, as well as be mad at all his inner circle of yes-men who pushed him to move on because they thought that he was being disrespected. He's going to be miserable once the boo-birds come out when he hits his first tough spot: look at all the Giants fans coming out of the woodwork in April when he wasn't hitting, complaining about him being fat, and square that, and that's the fan pressure he will have in Boston. Maybe he will finally man up and be the star he appeared to be in 2009 and 2011. But I don't think so.
It is going to be exponentially worse in Boston, where he has no built-up reserve of tolerance and affection, as he had with Giants fans. Fans there will expect great hitting from the get-go and will complain whenever he slumps, and he regularly gets into one, often related to recovering from an injury. For he is not a healthy player, he will be on the DL at some point almost every year, for one reason or another. If he thought the Giants were disrespectful, when until his first major slump.
And a miserable Pablo, we've seen how he acts and hits: in 2010, he spent the season in turmoil, pending divorce, custody battle over daughter, mom yards away from being incinerated in the San Bruno explosion, and his reaction was to get really fat, so fat that he couldn't hit RHP, so fat that he was benched during the World Series because the Giants felt that Renteria, who barely played that season, was a better alternative at SS (shifting Uribe to 3B), even though he hit 1 for 16 in the NLCS.
What Now?
I'm very interested in what they might do with these dollars now that Sandoval has moved on. But not signing Peavy though, that would be like dodging a bullet only to get skewered by a spear. Between the eyes.
The Giants can now accept a deal for either a 1B (Belt moves to LF), 3B, or LF which a team wants to dump his salary for a lower prospect, but a player who would still be productive for the Giants. As I noted above, won't take much of a hitter to provide a positive contribution to the lineup in the 6th spot.
The rumors is that the Giants are now kicking the tires on Lester, who would be a fine addition to the rotation. Unfortunately, talk is that he turned down a huge contract with the Red Sox, and we could be looking at 6 years and $132M in order to sign him. I would rather pass. The Giants have also reported that they have significant interest in the two Cuban free agents, OF Yasmany Thomas and SS Yoan Moncada. I'm very interested in Moncada, sounds pretty great. Not sure what other pitching we might be able to pick up, but that would be a nice area to add a great 5th starter who could be at least mid-rotation.
For 3B, I would be happy with the Giants giving Duffy and Adrianza a chance to grab the starting 3B spot and see what they can do with regular playing time, much like Panik last season, with Arias as the floor on production, because he plays defense at 3B as well as Sandoval, and would be OK as an 8th hitter. As I had noted above, we are set in the top of the lineup with Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, and Pence, that's a good looking top of the lineup through the middle, and Crawford in 2014 hit better than the average 6th place hitter in the NL. Heck, he was not that much worse than Sandoval and was better during parts of the season.
I'll be happy if the Giants sign a good hitting LF (Morse?) or trade for one (Cespedes?), and he could hit 6th with Crawford being an even better 7th place hitter. And Arias, Duffy, and Adrianza each did not hit much worse than the average 8th place hitter, lets see what one of them can do with regular starts. Sandoval's hitting was a luxury, not a necessity.
And ultimately, not much better than any other team's 6th or 7th place hitter. Is that what you want to pay $20M per season for? I don't. Let's see what Sabean and gang can do with that money now.
I thank Sandoval for his years of great service for us, but it's time to move on, and see what our young guys can do in his place or what we can acquire from the marketplace, whether free agent or through trade. I wish him no ill-will, but I won't wish him good luck either, we might face him at some point.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Your 2015 Giants: The Hot Stove Is Heating Up
Basking in the afterglow of the Giants third championship in five seasons, it would be easy to forget the reality that a number of our players on this wonderful, wonderful, team are free agents who could chose to move on.
These are the free agents:
These are the free agents:
- Pablo Sandoval
- Jake Peavy
- Michael Morse
- Sergio Romo
- Ryan Vogelsong
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: Sandoval Free Agency Thoughts
Some well-known media person wrote that the Giants plans were to 1) offer Pablo a QO, 2) expect for him to reject it, and 3) offer a 3 year offer to Sandoval, with 4 years a "stretch".
Someone thought that three years was a significant point. I also see a lot of people thinking that Sandoval is going to get a big contract and use Shin-Soo Choo as a good comparison, as apparently he has been injured a lot too.
ogc thoughts
I know Shin-Soo Choo and Sandoval is no Choo
Shin-Soo Choo is a way different situation than Sandoval. I see this comparison all the time and don't understand why.
First of all, in four of the five years leading up to free agency, Choo had at least 646 PA in the season and over 150 games 3 of 5. So he might be injured often, but he sure seems to play through it most of the time. Sandoval, at the moment, has zero seasons with at least 646 PA in his career and over 150 games 2 of 5. Sandoval might reach 646 this year, but unlikely unless the offense goes crazy.
Second of all, Choo in those five seasons hit .288/.392/.459/.851 with 87 HR. Sandoval, for comparative purposes, in his five seasons leading into free agency is hitting .285/.338/.446/.784 with 78 HR. More importantly, Sandoval hasn't even reached .800 OPS in four of the last five seasons and, worse, not at all in the last three seasons. Choo had been over .800 in four of the last five, and .883 and above in three of the last five.
Third of all, research by Fangraphs shows that outfielders get paid a lot more than infielders do, significantly so. If you look at the top outfielder contracts and compare it with the top 3B contracts, like Zimmerman and Wright, you can see the dichotomy. On top of that, both Zimmernan and Wright had great batting lines often and overall. Sandoval only had two good seasons, last time in 2011. Hence Sandoval asking for Pence's numbers just don't make sense given the realities of the marketplace.
Three Years is No News
And this 3 year offer is not really any news at all. Observant Giants fans know that the Giants offered a 3 year, $42M contract to Sandoval in the pre-season. This is the one his agent spat on publicly and gave the quote that they want to start the bidding at Pence's contract and hope to get to 9-figures. So it figures that the Giants will continue to offer that amount, that is where they last left off at.
Value Is Not There
The fact is, Sandoval hasn't been a good hitter since 2011. His ups and downs, for whatever reasons, whether injuries, family issues, or whatever, just seem to happen and that is the package any team signing him would be getting. Teams have been stupid with their contracts, but generally they have had good reasons to be stupid. If Sandoval had hit 900 OPS in 2014 like he did in 2011, he probably could find at least one stupid team. But he didn't, having another middling season.
And 2011 was the last year he had at least 20 HR, a mark he has only done twice in his career. Teams have gotten stupid signing up players who has a lot of power, and this is his first season to beat 15 homers since 2011, so no, that's not a power hitter's profile. His 3-HR game in the World Series is looking more like Elster's 3-HR game at AT&T, an outlier, not a norm.
So there is no reason to think that he's going to get a bigger contract than what Zimmerman got with the Nats or Wright got with the Mets. They were much better and more healthier players than Sandoval plus they hit for a lot better batting line. The Giants offer was totally in line with what he had produced up to this season, and there is no reason for them to go much more above that. In fact, with how poorly he has hit this season, the 3 year, $42M contract looks like it might be overpaying now. He plays nice defense, but nothing like he did in 2011, so his value is reliant on hit hitting, which has been up and down but mostly down the past three seasons.
How I See It
If Sandoval's agent is stupid enough to continue to ask for Pence-sized contract, I think that Sandoval will end up not signing until sometime in Jan/Feb before spring training, and probably will end up signing with the Giants for the QO (even after he rejected it, the Giants don't seem to like to take advantage of players in that situation and would still leave it on the table).
Who knows, maybe he finally gets it and take the Giants 3 year offer. As I noted in the pre-season, I can see the deal going as high as $15M per year, or $45M, or roughly 2.5 to 3.0 WAR per season production, which is about what he has done the past three seasons (roughly just under 3). So that would make it a "win" for his agent (by getting more than originally offered) while nowhere close to what he was asking for.
Someone thought that three years was a significant point. I also see a lot of people thinking that Sandoval is going to get a big contract and use Shin-Soo Choo as a good comparison, as apparently he has been injured a lot too.
ogc thoughts
I know Shin-Soo Choo and Sandoval is no Choo
Shin-Soo Choo is a way different situation than Sandoval. I see this comparison all the time and don't understand why.
First of all, in four of the five years leading up to free agency, Choo had at least 646 PA in the season and over 150 games 3 of 5. So he might be injured often, but he sure seems to play through it most of the time. Sandoval, at the moment, has zero seasons with at least 646 PA in his career and over 150 games 2 of 5. Sandoval might reach 646 this year, but unlikely unless the offense goes crazy.
Second of all, Choo in those five seasons hit .288/.392/.459/.851 with 87 HR. Sandoval, for comparative purposes, in his five seasons leading into free agency is hitting .285/.338/.446/.784 with 78 HR. More importantly, Sandoval hasn't even reached .800 OPS in four of the last five seasons and, worse, not at all in the last three seasons. Choo had been over .800 in four of the last five, and .883 and above in three of the last five.
Third of all, research by Fangraphs shows that outfielders get paid a lot more than infielders do, significantly so. If you look at the top outfielder contracts and compare it with the top 3B contracts, like Zimmerman and Wright, you can see the dichotomy. On top of that, both Zimmernan and Wright had great batting lines often and overall. Sandoval only had two good seasons, last time in 2011. Hence Sandoval asking for Pence's numbers just don't make sense given the realities of the marketplace.
Three Years is No News
And this 3 year offer is not really any news at all. Observant Giants fans know that the Giants offered a 3 year, $42M contract to Sandoval in the pre-season. This is the one his agent spat on publicly and gave the quote that they want to start the bidding at Pence's contract and hope to get to 9-figures. So it figures that the Giants will continue to offer that amount, that is where they last left off at.
Value Is Not There
The fact is, Sandoval hasn't been a good hitter since 2011. His ups and downs, for whatever reasons, whether injuries, family issues, or whatever, just seem to happen and that is the package any team signing him would be getting. Teams have been stupid with their contracts, but generally they have had good reasons to be stupid. If Sandoval had hit 900 OPS in 2014 like he did in 2011, he probably could find at least one stupid team. But he didn't, having another middling season.
And 2011 was the last year he had at least 20 HR, a mark he has only done twice in his career. Teams have gotten stupid signing up players who has a lot of power, and this is his first season to beat 15 homers since 2011, so no, that's not a power hitter's profile. His 3-HR game in the World Series is looking more like Elster's 3-HR game at AT&T, an outlier, not a norm.
So there is no reason to think that he's going to get a bigger contract than what Zimmerman got with the Nats or Wright got with the Mets. They were much better and more healthier players than Sandoval plus they hit for a lot better batting line. The Giants offer was totally in line with what he had produced up to this season, and there is no reason for them to go much more above that. In fact, with how poorly he has hit this season, the 3 year, $42M contract looks like it might be overpaying now. He plays nice defense, but nothing like he did in 2011, so his value is reliant on hit hitting, which has been up and down but mostly down the past three seasons.
How I See It
If Sandoval's agent is stupid enough to continue to ask for Pence-sized contract, I think that Sandoval will end up not signing until sometime in Jan/Feb before spring training, and probably will end up signing with the Giants for the QO (even after he rejected it, the Giants don't seem to like to take advantage of players in that situation and would still leave it on the table).
Who knows, maybe he finally gets it and take the Giants 3 year offer. As I noted in the pre-season, I can see the deal going as high as $15M per year, or $45M, or roughly 2.5 to 3.0 WAR per season production, which is about what he has done the past three seasons (roughly just under 3). So that would make it a "win" for his agent (by getting more than originally offered) while nowhere close to what he was asking for.
Friday, August 10, 2012
How Much for the Melk?
I was going to tackle this topic, but with the news that the Giants and Melky's reps agreed to table any extension talks until after the season, it didn't seem worth the exercise anymore. However, someone at Fangraphs posted their analysis on this and I thought I would refer to the post and list some of its conclusions with my thoughts.
That gives us a four-year, $46.2 million deal for Cabrera. And Assuming Cabrera demands five years, we can add in the final year on Rios’ deal, giving us a five-year, $58.7 million deal. Either way, Cabrera will make slightly over $10 million per season.
Going back to Gordon’s deal, this actually makes sense. Gordon is our most recent comparison and he only made $37.5 million over four years. But since Melky will hit the market, he’ll likely command a larger salary. It looks like anywhere between $45 million to $60 million is what it’s going to take to sign Cabrera.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Giants 2010 International Scene
Great article regarding the top twelve international free agents in Latin America on MLB Fanhouse. It was written by a former MLB scout.
The top rated Dominican is Eskarlin Vasquez, OF and the Giants are pursuing him: "As it sits right now, Vasquez appears to be the top all-around position player in the class. A right fielder with a strong arm, Vasquez has shown some good power at the dish and could get a bonus north of $2 million. The San Francisco Giants are considered among the favorites at this stage to land him, but several clubs will be involved."
The top rated Dominican is Eskarlin Vasquez, OF and the Giants are pursuing him: "As it sits right now, Vasquez appears to be the top all-around position player in the class. A right fielder with a strong arm, Vasquez has shown some good power at the dish and could get a bonus north of $2 million. The San Francisco Giants are considered among the favorites at this stage to land him, but several clubs will be involved."
Sounds pretty good and is a good sign that the Giants will continue pursuing top talent in the region. While the failure rate for the top picks have been high (for every one that made it on Baseball America's Top signing bonus list, it seems like two or three fails big time), basically you have to play the game if you hope to find someone in this market who can make a difference.
Monday, November 09, 2009
Winn Loses But Giants Win; Plus Elias Rankings and Free Agency
According to a blog by Andy Baggarly, the Giants have informed Randy Winn that his services would no longer be needed by the Giants.
Giants Thoughts
First off, thank you to Randy Winn for his many years of service to the Giants. Good luck in your future endeavors and hopefully you can make the playoffs with another team, though, of course, should you face the Giants in the playoffs, I hope you don't do so well.
Andy opined that this move might be because the Giants management is worried that Bochy would play Winn regularly instead of letting the younger players play. There is some validity in this statement. Winn started 22 games out of 28 games in August and 18 games out of 31 games in September/October, while hitting around .600 OPS over two months. To Bochy's credit, at least the percentage fell from 79% to 58%, but that type of hitting usually warrants a benching, not playing over half the games.
But he was kind of forced to use Winn. In August, Velez hit .273/.307/.405/.712 in 121 AB and Schierholtz hit .208/.255/.417/.671 in 48 AB, while Winn hit .247/.304/.301/.605 in 93 AB. Lewis did hit well in limited (34) at-bats, but that was probably mainly against RHP and probably small samples as his stats then tanked the rest of the season.
In September/October, Velez hit .239/.294/.413/.707 in 92 AB, Bowker hit .222/.276/.444/.720 in 27 AB, Schierholtz hit .222/.273/.293/.565 in 41 AB, and Lewis, balancing off his hot August with a very poor end to his season. Winn didn't do much better, .230/.329/.262/.591 in 61 AB, but he at least is a veteran with a strong track history. With the days in the season dwindling, usually betting on the veteran is a good bet.
However, his track record in the 2009 season was pretty poor. His OPS was at or below the 700 OPS range in 5 of the 6 months, he only had one month similar to his usual production in May. More importantly, he was striking out much more than he usually did, even in his poor 2006 season, and such a negative turn in his contact ability spoke to his probable physical decline and inability to make contact with pitches he once hit with authority.
The one good thing that Winn at least was able to do was to get on base a lot. Despite a lower OPS than his career, his OBP was at least presentable, unlike the other OF starter options, at the end of the season. So it was not like Bochy was totally off base with his decision to start Winn.
Personally, I would have just given the starting job to Bowker at the start of September, in recognition of his great season in 2009, much like how Sandoval and Ishikawa got to start a lot of games at the end of 2008 season. That would have also given us a look towards 2010 plus allowed him to chillax a little and show what he could do.
But when you are trying to win in the last month of the season, you don't go starting young prospects with that extra pressure on, it is hard enough to show what you can do earlier in the season when the pressure is not that high, but playoff pressure is an additional negative factor on a young prospect's performance. Though sometimes you are forced to do that.
In any case, this is a good move. Right now, LF and RF are open positions, with Fred Lewis, Eugenio Velez, Nate Schierholtz, and John Bowker competing for the two spots, with Andres Torres a dark horse candidate and Jose Guzman an unlikely possibility but still could be in the mix. If the Giants want to ensure another steady bat in the lineup, LF is one possibility to fill with a player, like free agent Chone Figgins.
However, Sabean's comments thus far suggest that they are content with going forward with their current roster of players, avoiding any early free agent signing. That is the way he likes to operate, but waiting to see how the free agent market shakes out and perhaps provide us with a nice cheaper alternative. Perhaps after the non-tendered arbitration candidates in December is one way he might go or waiting until Jan/Feb for the vets still looking for a job and perhaps ready to give the Giants a nice deal.
Plus, the Giants pick is not protected, so he most probably won't be going after any of the Type A free agent because of this and the size of the contract in terms of years and dollars that the top hitters will want.
Unfortunately, Chone Figgins is a Type A free agent (list just released today, check here at bizofbaseball for their account) so there goes my best idea of who the Giants might pursue among the free agents.
The good news for Giants fans is that Bob Howry, Randy Johnson, and Randy Winn are Type B free agents, so if some team were to sign them before the deadline for offering arbitration, they would earn us a first round supplemental pick. However, odds are that probably only Howry would beat that deadline, as the other two will probably be after thoughts, given how poorly they performed. Also, Bengie Molina is a Type A free agent, so there is some possibility that a contending team needing a good starting catcher might sign him (like the Brewers), though a rising team might want him too (like the Rays). But it is no sure bet that the Giants will get both a first round pick and a supplemental sandwich pick for Molina.
Plus, the free agents catchers I was hoping the Giants might target as the veteran backup who will backup Posey this season, either all season or keeping the starting job warm until Posey is brought up won't cost us any compensation: Ausmus, Zaun, and Jose Molina would not cost us anything in terms of draft picks (Zaun should also have an option that the Rays might pick up).
Giants Thoughts
First off, thank you to Randy Winn for his many years of service to the Giants. Good luck in your future endeavors and hopefully you can make the playoffs with another team, though, of course, should you face the Giants in the playoffs, I hope you don't do so well.
Andy opined that this move might be because the Giants management is worried that Bochy would play Winn regularly instead of letting the younger players play. There is some validity in this statement. Winn started 22 games out of 28 games in August and 18 games out of 31 games in September/October, while hitting around .600 OPS over two months. To Bochy's credit, at least the percentage fell from 79% to 58%, but that type of hitting usually warrants a benching, not playing over half the games.
But he was kind of forced to use Winn. In August, Velez hit .273/.307/.405/.712 in 121 AB and Schierholtz hit .208/.255/.417/.671 in 48 AB, while Winn hit .247/.304/.301/.605 in 93 AB. Lewis did hit well in limited (34) at-bats, but that was probably mainly against RHP and probably small samples as his stats then tanked the rest of the season.
In September/October, Velez hit .239/.294/.413/.707 in 92 AB, Bowker hit .222/.276/.444/.720 in 27 AB, Schierholtz hit .222/.273/.293/.565 in 41 AB, and Lewis, balancing off his hot August with a very poor end to his season. Winn didn't do much better, .230/.329/.262/.591 in 61 AB, but he at least is a veteran with a strong track history. With the days in the season dwindling, usually betting on the veteran is a good bet.
However, his track record in the 2009 season was pretty poor. His OPS was at or below the 700 OPS range in 5 of the 6 months, he only had one month similar to his usual production in May. More importantly, he was striking out much more than he usually did, even in his poor 2006 season, and such a negative turn in his contact ability spoke to his probable physical decline and inability to make contact with pitches he once hit with authority.
The one good thing that Winn at least was able to do was to get on base a lot. Despite a lower OPS than his career, his OBP was at least presentable, unlike the other OF starter options, at the end of the season. So it was not like Bochy was totally off base with his decision to start Winn.
Personally, I would have just given the starting job to Bowker at the start of September, in recognition of his great season in 2009, much like how Sandoval and Ishikawa got to start a lot of games at the end of 2008 season. That would have also given us a look towards 2010 plus allowed him to chillax a little and show what he could do.
But when you are trying to win in the last month of the season, you don't go starting young prospects with that extra pressure on, it is hard enough to show what you can do earlier in the season when the pressure is not that high, but playoff pressure is an additional negative factor on a young prospect's performance. Though sometimes you are forced to do that.
In any case, this is a good move. Right now, LF and RF are open positions, with Fred Lewis, Eugenio Velez, Nate Schierholtz, and John Bowker competing for the two spots, with Andres Torres a dark horse candidate and Jose Guzman an unlikely possibility but still could be in the mix. If the Giants want to ensure another steady bat in the lineup, LF is one possibility to fill with a player, like free agent Chone Figgins.
However, Sabean's comments thus far suggest that they are content with going forward with their current roster of players, avoiding any early free agent signing. That is the way he likes to operate, but waiting to see how the free agent market shakes out and perhaps provide us with a nice cheaper alternative. Perhaps after the non-tendered arbitration candidates in December is one way he might go or waiting until Jan/Feb for the vets still looking for a job and perhaps ready to give the Giants a nice deal.
Plus, the Giants pick is not protected, so he most probably won't be going after any of the Type A free agent because of this and the size of the contract in terms of years and dollars that the top hitters will want.
Unfortunately, Chone Figgins is a Type A free agent (list just released today, check here at bizofbaseball for their account) so there goes my best idea of who the Giants might pursue among the free agents.
The good news for Giants fans is that Bob Howry, Randy Johnson, and Randy Winn are Type B free agents, so if some team were to sign them before the deadline for offering arbitration, they would earn us a first round supplemental pick. However, odds are that probably only Howry would beat that deadline, as the other two will probably be after thoughts, given how poorly they performed. Also, Bengie Molina is a Type A free agent, so there is some possibility that a contending team needing a good starting catcher might sign him (like the Brewers), though a rising team might want him too (like the Rays). But it is no sure bet that the Giants will get both a first round pick and a supplemental sandwich pick for Molina.
Plus, the free agents catchers I was hoping the Giants might target as the veteran backup who will backup Posey this season, either all season or keeping the starting job warm until Posey is brought up won't cost us any compensation: Ausmus, Zaun, and Jose Molina would not cost us anything in terms of draft picks (Zaun should also have an option that the Rays might pick up).
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