End of an Era: Madison Bumgarner Signs With D-Backs

I heard the news today, about a lucky man who made the grade:  Madison Bumgarner signs with the D-backs for 5 years, $85M, or $17M per season, but with $15M deferred, averages $14M during contract.

Baggarly reported that the Giants went as high as 4 years, $70M.  Baggarly reported that from his talks with Bumgarner before, Arizona was clearly of interest to him because he and his wife loves the area, and has a ranch there, which they can then live at for most of the year now that he works nearby.

ogc thoughts

I thought the Giants should have signed Bumgarner at $100M for 5 years, so I certainly see $85M as a bargain.  As a baseball risk, I certainly saw it as better than the 51/49 moves that Zaidi said he'll be making, move by move, to make the Giants better.  At the $14M per WAR pricing Matt Swartz had projected for the time period of the contract, that works out to roughly 6 WAR over the life of the contract, 1.20 WAR per season.

At 3.2 fWAR last season, which is roughly in line with the usual decline projections used for free agents of 0.5 WAR per seasons (he had 4.3 fWAR in 2016, which would progress to 3.8 in 2017, and 3.3 in 2018, and 2.8 fWAR in 2019), if we project based off his 2019, here is his projected WAR with the D-backs:

• 2020:  2.7 fWAR
• 2021:  2.2 fWAR
• 2022:  1.7 fWAR
• 2023:  1.2 fWAR
• 2024:  0.7 fWAR

So that would be a total of 8.5 fWAR produced, and he would return positive ROI on each year of his contract except for his 5th year, based on this progression.  This means he produces 2.5 WAR above the cost of the contract, or $35M more than his $85M contract.  He would have to regress an extra 0.5 WAR per season for him not to pay off his contract through his production.

Given this standard saber analysis, I won't understand Zaidi's explanation regarding this deal, assuming he comes out with me.  Given the reported bid by the Giants, as Baggarly noted, it appears to be a similar strategy as with how Sandoval was handled, bidding up the player, but always staying on the other side of the line (in this case, Bumgarner really wanted 5 years, it appears, and the Giants stuck to 4 years) so that the player would chose the other team.

I understand the need not to be emotional about free agents, but this was no mere free agent, which, as much as I have loved other players, including Timmy (he chose to not to retire), I would have loved to see Bumgarner retire as a Giant, I think he earned that with all that he did for and with the team.  I also think that his body and type of pitching would be a good profile of a good risk for sustainable good performances into his 30's.  Many good reasons to retain him.

I see him becoming this era's Gaylord Perry, someone believed to be bad enough to let go, but prove to be a horse who proves them wrong.  Not every 30 YO pitcher goes into the crapper, else you would have not guys like Verlander, Randy Johnson, and others continue into their 30's.  I think Bumgarner has a good chance to be such a pitcher, though I must then add, based on what we know, we know nothing about his medical history other than his bike accident and being hit by the batted ball.

What This Could Mean

Given how logical it would be to sign Bumgarner - likeliness of meeting cost of contract, need for starting pitching starting 2021-22 given Bart, Ramos likely ETA, need for his fans to goose attendance in his starts - this means that Zaidi does not believe the same things.

One thing would be Bumgarner's future production.  Perhaps he thinks Bum will not be able to meet the contract because his projection formulas has Bum regressing much more than what I have above.   They do have better medical information on him than anyone else, he's been under their care for just over a dozen years now.  There are all the analytics talking about his decline, including Statcast.  We'll see who is right about that, it is much like originally drafting Bumgarner, we needed hitting but Sabean selected Madison and said that he should reach the majors in two years, and he did.

Another thing could be emotional.  Yes, odd for a now strongly analytically driven team, but Baggarly had reported that there are insiders who are against signing Bumgarner ever since the mountain bike accident that knocked him out of the 2017 season.   Perhaps these owners had enough pull to limit what Bum could be offered, and thus ensure he leaves as a free agent.  Or perhaps it was the emotions of how both Cain and Lincecum ended up not producing for their extensions (and now the Brandons), and the owners emotionally decided that enough's enough, we're not doing that crazy thing again with Bumgarner.  Which would be a stupid thing for a team that's going further into analytics, to be driven by the emotions of an owner who is upset that Bumgarner made a mistake that cost the team.

Or it could be emotional on Bumgarner's side of the equation.  Perhaps he was insulted by the reaction of these insiders, and then focused on getting Arizona done.  Arizona has a long history of taking on ex-Giants players, starting with their first front office, like Roger Craig, eventually getting Matt Williams, plus Brenly managed there, plus their lure as being close to spring training means longer times at home for players.  Plus, he has a ranch there, apparently, with horses.  Would not be the first time the Giants were spurned because the free agent had a ranch near his new team.

Perhaps Zaidi does not think for sure that Bart and Ramos will be ready in the 2020-21 time period, or worse, that their potential is not good enough on their own to start the next competitive team cycle.  If they don't break out in the 2020-21 time frame, then Bumgarner's 5 year contract isn't attractive at all, as then Bart and Ramos would then be hopefully ready in the second half of Bumgarner's contract, where he'll be even more on the downside, at least that's the theory of it.

In Any Case:  Giants Were Clearly Not Interested

Baggarly noted a very good point, that while Farhan keep the public face of the Giants being interested still in re-signing, when Kapler was asked if he had any conversations with Bumgarner, he said that he had not, meaning that the Giants were not that interested in re-signing Madison.  For had they strong interest, surely one of the first things the new Giants skipper would do is call Bumgarner to assure him that Kapler would be looking forward to working with Bumgarner, and sell Bum on why he should return to the Giants with a new manager like Kapler.  Yet, Kapler let the cat out of the bag, by noting that he had zero contact with Bumgarner, a sure sign of non-interest in keeping Madison.

ogc thoughts on scenarios

In Scenario Planning, the idea is to churn through a number of scenarios and see if a tactic (like signing Bumgarner) would make sense in any number of scenarios.

Well, for me, a lot rotates around whether you think Bart and Ramos will become good star players in the majors or not.

They matriculate as expected, in the 2020-21 timeframe, as MLB starters and stars:  Then you need good pitching to complement them starting 2021 at the latest.  Bum, per the standard FA decline phase analysis is roughly average from 2021-2023, and that's the bird in the hand, you don't know which free agent pitchers will be available in that time period (injuries, extensions, getting outbid).  Unless there is something in his medicals we don't know about (kind of like how we didn't know Melancon had arm problems regularly every season until the Giants signed him and his arm problems didn't heal on it's own, like it did in prior seasons).

They matriculate, but struggle to stay in the majors, not becoming starters until after 2022, or worse never develop:   Unless Zaidi find a Yaz 2.0 in 2020 and Yaz 3.0 in 2021, and Yaz 4.0 in 2022, plus at least a surprise prospect rises fast (Corry? Pomares? Canario?  Toribio?), the Giants won't be contending until at least 2023, and it could be a long period of losing if Bart and Ramos do not develop as expected.

Bart is likely to develop, he's ranked #19 overall by MLB Pipeline's Mayo and Callis, so the odds are pretty good with him.  But Ramos is down at #50 (AnVil, for reference, was 44, and Alderson was 45, after the 2008 season, by Baseball America).  Luciano is at #61, which is pretty good for a prospect based on his 17 YO season, and this is reflected by the fact that most IFA's don't even play in the US in their 17 YO season, let alone in Short Season ball with Salem-Keizer.  Hunter Bishop is at #65 (for reference, Alderson was #84 overall after his first pro season).

However, if these guys don't develop as hoped, then the Giants will need some sort of attraction to keep the fans coming out.  Bumgarner is likely to pitch okay for the next four seasons, and at $17M per season, cheap to keep some fan engagement.

Poor Starting Pitching Prospects Inventory:  On top of that, the Giants system is not deep in pitching prospects, who are top of rotation guys.  Their top pitching prospects per MLB Pipeline are Webb (#5), Hjelle (#6), Corry (#9), Wong (#12), Santos (#13), Menez (#18), Beck (#19), Rivera (#20), and McDonald (#27).  Here is their projections:

• Logan Webb:  He could wind up as a No. 3 starter or as a late-inning reliever.
• Sean Hjelle:  While he still could add some strength to his lanky frame, his floor stands out more than his ceiling and he's likely to settle in as a No. 4 starter.
• Seth Corry:  He elicits comparisons to a young Matt Moore, who also had trouble locating his pitches early in his pro career. (unwilling to commit to where in rotation)
• Jake Wong:  He comes with a higher ceiling but a lower floor than Sean Hjelle, the fellow college righty whom San Francisco selected a round ahead of him last June. (so he could be a #3, but could fail to develop as a starter, as well, is my guess).
• Gregory Santos:  ...has been bothered by persistent shoulder problems. ... Youth is still very much on his side and San Francisco will be patient with his development. (unwilling to commit to where he might end up)
• Conner Menez:  He has enjoyed more success against left-handers than right-handers, and he should have a floor as at least a situational reliever. But he continues to thrive as a starter and could get an opportunity in San Francisco's rotation before too long.
• Tristan Beck:  One thing Beck will need to learn is that his stuff is good enough to get pro hitters out. He had a tendency to pitch to pro hitters like he did in college, leaning heavily on his breaking stuff. He has the aptitude to learn that lesson and move up the ladder quickly. (so they see him making the majors, but not sure after that)
• Blake Rivera:  He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter if he can get more consistent with his control and changeup. Some scouts who saw him as an amateur liked him more as a late-inning reliever who could focus on his curve and fastball, with one even comparing him to Kimbrel.
• Tyler McDonald:  Though McDonald's arm action is a bit long, he repeats his delivery well and doesn't have any problems throwing strikes. There are some concerns about his size, listed at what scouts believe is a generous 6-foot-2, and his lack of history against quality competition. But he's also just beginning to realize his potential and has the ingredients for a solid four-pitch mix.

Corry appears to be the only one who might become a top of rotation guy (but he's a long way off, a lot can go wrong between A-ball and the majors), and there is also Beede, who has flashed top of rotation stuff but has not yet put it all together yet in the majors, and we have no idea if he ever will.  But otherwise, most of the above (and the two Andersons on the 40-man) are at best middle rotation staters, and most prospects below Top 5 are pretty iffy in terms of becoming a major league starter.

So signing Bumgarner would have strengthen the future rotation over the next five seasons, as there are not a lot of sure things among pitchers in the Giants farm system.

Scenario for Not Signing Bumgarner:  Tanking

Thinking about the above, I started thinking (during a haircut :^) what type of scenario is one where not signing Bumgarner makes sense.  One I could think of is this:  Tanking, at minimum, the 2020 season.

If the plan is to tank to a really bad record in 2020, then you don't want to sign Bumgarner, as that is likely his best season of his contract, which puts us in worse draft position.   In fact, that means you want to trade off as many big money contracts that you can, and "let the prospects develop", and meanwhile, you try to "develop the older players", which makes some sense (see Hunter Pence's transformation, among others, like JD Martinez, once they learned the correct way to hit in the major leagues; ironically, Manny Burris, who refused to learn the correct way from Carney Lansford, is now a hitting coach somewhere) but if they already know how to hit properly (which Posey and Belt presumably did, given how well they hit), there are limits to how much improvement you can squeeze out of them.  There is also what Farhan noted, that Posey should be fully healed in 2020 vs. 2019.

And especially so if they are planning to tank 2021 as well, which can make some sense if neither Bart nor Ramos prove to be likely starters by the start of the 2021 season (unlikely, given Bart's progress, but he wouldn't be the first player to be exposed in AAA).   Again, Bumgarner would still be a good starter (remember, under WAR definition, an average 2.0 WAR is still considered a good player), and could cost us one or two or up to three draft spots with his contribution, especially if Cueto is still around and returns to his prior goodness in 2020-21 period.  He produced 3 wins in 2019, and for spots 5 to 11, each win would cost their team one spot higher in the 2020 draft.  And only Baltimore and Toronto, out of all the under .500 teams, would not have had a higher draft position if you added 3 losses to their record.

In this scenario, the Giants should be now actively selling Samardzija to playoff contenders who missed out on the better starters like Strasburg and Cole, and now Bumgarner, offering to pay around half of his contract in order to get a good Top 5 prospect from that team (using the trade with the Angels to get Wilson as a model for a possible Shark trade).  Similarly for Cueto come mid-season, after he shows what he can now do as a starting pitcher. 

In this scenario, Yaz might also be trade bait as well, this off-season, as he'll be already 29 YO next season, as his production would only give the Giants a lesser draft pick (as I noted above with Bumgarner's wins).  Trading him would be a good sign of a tanking situation, though it could also be possibly a "sell high" type of situation, given his advanced age as a rookie.  But he seems to be the real thing, once he started hitting mid-July, he had good hitting months to the end, and even at his worse, he ended the season hitting .250/.344/.420/.763 over last 5 weeks or so. 

Scenario for Not Signing Bumgarner:  Don't Sign Anyone 30 YO and Older

Another reason I could think of is this:  He doesn't want to sign anyone over 30 YO to multi-year contracts into their mid-30's.  A five year contract for Bumgarner covers his 30-34 YO seasons.  Pitchers seem to start breaking down more at 32 YO and after, per Baseball HQ research on reliability, so the risk of him breaking down starts in 2022, which is about when the young players are expected to reach the majors as starters.

So that could be the difference, perhaps he's still planning to boost up the team starting in 2021, when the young top prospects are expected to become major leaguers, but the risk for Bumgarner escalates, potentially at 32 YO (2022), whereas Castellanos, who the Giants are rumored to be the team most in on him, is only in his 28 YO season.  So that's a pattern to watch as the off-season continues to unfold until spring training, what the ages of any free agent the Giants sign cover., and for how long. 

For now, this is just a possible reason why Zaidi decided not to push harder to get Bumgarner, and I would say most probable reason.  I don't see him (or ownership) trying to tank, that's just too hard a sell for any fan base.  Plus, there's huge risk that the tank won't yield the prospects you hope for, and Zaidi just ends up with a losing record over his five year contract, let go at the end of the contract.  Any GM who tanks has to do it with ownership blessing, and understanding that it could blow up in their face, or, in any case, take a lot of years.  It took Bobby Cox six years of tanking as GM to find Chipper Jones as his building block to build around, and officially take over as manager of the Braves. 

Post-Signing:  QO draft pick

Per Darryl_Zero, the Giants get pick #70 for losing Bumgarner in free agency.  He says it could change depending on who else among the QO's are signed, but for now, here are the odds I found for that #70 pick in my draft analysis of the first 50 years of the draft:

• 31 of them (66%) never made the majors (or busts)
• 6 of them (13%) had negative WAR
• 7 of them (15%) were below average, or mediocre (0 to 8.9 bWAR)
• 1 of them (2.1%) were average, or useful (9 to 17.9 bWAR)
• 2 of them (4.3%) were good (18+ bWAR)
• 0 of them (0%) was very good (36+ bWAR)
• 0 of them (0%) was HoF good (54+ bWAR)

This works out to an expected 2.0 bWAR production from the pick, but 79% of the players selected #70 ended up either never making the majors or producing negative WAR, and only 6 of the 47 prospects signed has produced at least 2.0 bWAR (13% of the prospects).

As I've been saying for over a dozen years now, the draft is a crapshoot.  Even if the average prospect drafted produces positive WAR, the problem is that there are not many who produce even 2 WAR (a mediocre major league player), let alone the 18 WAR that I use to define a good player (9 years at 2.0 WAR or 6 years at 3.0 WAR).  It's nice to have another lottery ticket, but you can't base any hope to any of these draft picks until they produce in the majors, the vast majority of the time.  Only a select few are Top 20 prospects overall, and even then, some of those fail to become good too.