Here are the moves they made today:
- Traded with Angels, taking on Zack Cozart's contract ($12.7M in 2020), and receiving their 2019 First Round pick (#15 overall), Will Wilson, SS, their #5 prospect per MLB Pipeline. The Giants owe future cash considerations or a PTBNL
- Signed RHP Kevin Gausman to $9M contract, with up to $1M in performance bonuses
ogc thoughts
Cozart Trade
Basically bought SS prospect Will Wilson by taking on all of Cozart's salary, giving the Giants an interesting SS prospect. Cozart probably becomes the middle infield bench player, though with his poor hitting in 2019, he could be pushed out as soon as spring training is over, as he plays mostly 2B and 3B, and Slater has handled 2B before, and Dubon could handle SS and 3B, as well.
This is a pretty good deal, as we get an interesting prospect who had an okay pro debut (.768 OPS but 47 K's in only 189 AB, so there's a lot of work to do), while getting an MLB player who could fill a need on the roster in Cozart. For $12.7M, that's roughly a bet that Wilson could produce around 1 WAR ini 2020 for the Giants.
The hope, I assume, from the Giants viewpoint, is that they think they can fix Cozart's hitting enough to make him playable as our backup MI, at least for the first two months of the season, then go from there, kind of like how they had Parra and Solarte around until they got rid of them.
He was playing injured last season, so that is part of the calculus new skipper Gabe Kapler noted in a TV interview, they are hoping he can revert to prior production level if healthy. However, he only hit .219/.296/.362/.658, though, in 2018, only 0.1 bWAR, in his 32 YO season, as a prior level of production, but in his prior six seasons, was roughly a 2 WAR player, and if he can revert to around 1 WAR, would earn his pay. But many players have suffered their decline phase in their early 30's, so that's very possible too. However, his value has been mostly defensive over his career, so if he can hit like he did in 2018, while defending like he did in 2019, he can be a useful player. Heck, if he can hit at 0.0 bWAR while being a good defensive player, he can probably earn 1.0 bWAR just on defense.
Will Wilson was already moved to the Giants prospect list when I checked (just an hour later!), so I could not confirm where he was with the Angel's (but in The Athletic's Angels beat writer story, they noted he was #5 prospect for them), but he is 10th on the Giants prospect list, behind Seth Corry and ahead of Luis Toribio. He's behind Dubon, who is 8th on the ranking list, so he's behind two other Giants SS prospects, Luciano at #3 and Dubon at #8. Per MLB Pipeline, he appears to be potentially an average player overall, except for his speed.
Here is MLB.com Pipeline's description of Wilson:
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
[Dubon for comparison: Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50]
North Carolina State has produced two first-round shortstops in the last six Drafts, Trea Turner in 2014 and Wilson in 2019. After hitting 39 homers in three college seasons and winning Atlantic Coast Conference defensive player of the year honors last spring, Wilson signed with the Angels for $3,397,500 as the 15th overall pick. In order to dump salary, Los Angeles included him with Zack Cozart in a Winter Meetings trade with the Giants for a player to be named later.
Though he's not physically imposing, Wilson has quick hands and deceptive strength that give him at least above-average raw power. A right-handed hitter, he has a knack for putting the barrel on the ball. He shows the ability to hit for average and power, and he has done a better job of drawing walks this spring despite his aggressive approach.
The biggest knock on Wilson is his below-average speed. Most big league shortstops run better than Wilson, though some scouts think he can stay at the position because he has quick actions and hands. Others believe his speed and average arm will land him at second base, and he split time between the two positions during his pro debut.Gausman Signing
RHP Kevin Gausman fills a need in the rotation, and is in line with what Zaidi did last season with Pomeranz and Holland, and said that he would do this off-season, getting pitchers who would like to build up their free agency possibilities. He's actually been very dominant, with high K/9 and good K/BB ratios, which is something else Zaidi said he was looking for, as well.
I like the signing. He's an accurate strike thrower, and while he did poorly starting for Atlanta, with a 6.19 ERA for the Braves, it appears to be a lot of bad luck, as it was a 4.20 FIP with a great 9.6 K/9 and good 3.0 BB/9 (good 3.2 K/BB). There is also potential for him as a reliever, as well, as he moved to the Reds from the Braves, with a 4.03 ERA, elite 11.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 (elite 5.8 K/BB). I also read on Twitter that he lost feel for his sinker early in the season, but found it again while in relief. Plus he should get help against LHH in Oracle Park, though the splits were pretty even in 2019, and for his career, he's actually been better against LHP than RHP.
So that's an area of potentially exponential leap in performance, if the Giants can figure out (or maybe have already figured out) how to get him to keep his LHH split level of performance, while improving his RHH performance to the normal split where he's more dominant against RHH than LHH. For his career, RHH has hit a robust .284/.332/.460/.792, (with a bad .322 BABIP) while he has stifled LHH to a .250/.314/.410/.723 (.299 BABIP).
Reducing the BABIP to .299 would reduce his RHH to around .251/.309/.407/.716, or about the same as he did against LHH (which is what he did in 2019, so maybe something has been figured out). But ideally, he should be that much better against RHH than LHH so that instead of being .792/.723, he keeps his LHH dominance, and dominate RHH to a tune of .654 OPS instead. But just reducing it to being neutral to either hand would be a great boost to his overall performance.
Seems as if 12.7 million is a lot to pay for a number 10 prospect in our system. Especially when the giants made a big deal about how 9 million for Pillar would make it difficult to rebuild. Now we get Gausman for 9 million, who has some upside potential, maybe even more as a reliever, but isn't the 9 million for Gausman just has harmful for the giants rebuild as 9 million for Pillar for one year? Makes me think their logic on Pillar was just B.S. After all we had younger cheaper options in the outfield, although they had a hard time staying healthy, and by the same token, do we not have younger potential starting pitchers in our system with significant upside who are also cheaper. Seems to me the argument against Pillar would be a worthy arugment against Gausman. Also if we can afford 12.7 million for a player we do not really want, just for a prospect, how did 9 million for Pillar stop us from going after prospects or other players. I am not seeing consistency in the arguments put forth by the giants brass and their sycophants. I like rebuilding the farm system, but I also like a rich team like the giants to field a competitive team every year, and not make excuses.
ReplyDeleteI think the point is that Piillar has nothing to do with rebuilding, he would only take away AB's from players who could use the experience on the MLB roster, like Shaw, Davis, as well as Duggar and Dickerson.
DeletePlus, if they are pursuing Castellanos as reported, he would be part of the rebuild, whereas Pillar is already on the downside of his career, and will not be productive when the next competitive Giants team is ready.
Meanwhile, Pillar's money being used for Cozart means that we get an interesting prospect (one they were seriously considering with the 10th pick), who would be part of the rebuild, hopefully.
Or if you view it as being spent on Gausman, most probably he's traded mid-season, hopefully for interesting prospect(s) who would help with the rebuild too.
Either way, Pillar does not help the rebuild, but shifting the money to one of these other deals result in adding a prospect who would help with the rebuild.
As I've been trying to teach all through the life of my blog(s), starting from the beginning, with my draft study, the draft odds are so deeply against teams that are competitive, that it is not very likely that many (or any) teams can keep the prospect pipeline steadily producing good players indefinitely.
DeleteSo it does not take a sycophant to say that the Giants came up short in rebuilding while competitive, and that's okay, that's what usually happens. I've not seen any team consistently produce good players during the past three decades, except the Cards over the past decade, and the Dodgers over two leaders, over the same period. But Friedman wasn't doing it with the Rays, he left at the right time, their competitiveness (and passing over of drafting Posey), really left the Rays farm system barren, so I wonder if it is still Colletti's scouts and system that's keeping the prospects coming through. In any case, no matter who gets credit, they have been doing it for a while now.
Gausman had a 9.6 K/9 and 3.2 K/BB as a starter in 2019 in the majors. We have maybe a handful of starting pitchers who can do that in the minors, let alone making the leap to the majors and doing it there. So, no, there are not a lot of young pitching prospects who are that good in the system, and we are not certain who among Anderson, Beede, Menez, Webb might be good enough to consistent do that in the majors. Gausman has done it, and did ii last season.
And, as I noted in the above comment, Gausman is likely tradeable for a valuable prospect (like we got for Pomeranz, in Dubon) or two, and if they can figure out how to get him to take a leap in performance by handling RHH like he does LHH, he'll have ace level performance that could net an even better prospect, or maybe they keep him as part of the next core, can never have too much good pitching. Maybe he can be the Giants Gerrit Cole/Astros type of improvement.
If you spent $9M on Pillar, however, how would you trade him for a good prospect? Nobody thought enough of him to pick him up on waivers, free talent.
While, with Cozart, not only do we get the Angel's first round pick from last season, and which they liked enough for consideration for the #10 pick, but Cozart, if healthy and returned to prior level of hitting, could produce as much WAR as Pillar did (he only produced 1.0 bWAR in 2019 in total, though 1.4 bWAR for the Giants), as Cozart is an excellent defender (even last season, with his injuries), and he won't need to hit for much to be a productive player in the 1.0 bWAR range. So for about the same money as they would have spent on Pillar, they get a MLB vet who could produce as much WAR, while also netting a good SS prospect. Win-win potentially.
Just like one cannot be assured that a pitcher will thrive because of his advanced spin rate, (Stratton). one cannot be sure that a pitcher will thrive because of his K rate, or his K/bb rate. The are often useful indices, but they do not tell the whole story. Gausman's actual success rate has not been that terrific. Maybe they have found another Vogelsong in a bottle, but time will tell. There are reasons why Pillar may or may not have helped with the rebuild. If he was signed for one year, he could also be a trade chip in mid season. If 9 million clogged up the giants cash flow, than 12.7 million for a minor leaguer who the giants had slotted in the first round, is a very high price to pay. So either the giants have plenty of money to spend or they do not. Also if money is important, and Pillar's all out give it 100 percent style of play brings fans to the park, that also means more money for the franchise. If during the rebuild, the team is not competitive, that lowers attendance which also diminishes resources. However, all these arguments the giants have about resources are basically moot, as the giants ownership group is one of the richest in baseball. Perhaps now a generation of giants fans have been spoiled, and want to see success in order to spend their sports dollars. The Yankees spent 324 million for 9 years for Cole. Good for him, but perhaps bad for the game and the fans. One will soon have to be a top corporate executive to purchase tickets, if the owners continue to expect the fans to keep them in the lap of luxury while they almost give one pitcher a third of a billion dollars for 9 years. Cole is good. He is very good, but what is the value of a championship? If it is that high, than expect your baseball packages to go up on MLB, and Sirius XM radio. Cozaar will not be as productive a hitter as PIllar, he is also OLDER, and Pillar is also an excellent fielder. Only if Cozaar has a major reversal and comeback this year will he be of any value. I almost would rather have a backup in Matt Duffy. Is there no value in a player who hit 21 homers, 37 doubles, had 83 Runs, 82 as a giant, and 89 RBI, 88 as a giant, mostly in the 6th and 7th slot, and went 7 for 15 with the bases loaded with 19 RBI. I just do not think that the low OBP completely nullifies his all out contributions, both on a baseball level and an entertainment level. I will say this, WAR is helpful, but it is not infallible, both on the offensive side, but even more so on the defensive side. I am happy that the team is rebuilding its minor league system. Last year they seemed to be loaded with a lot of 4A type players. It is nice to know that they have a few real prospects. For some reason, Wilson thus far is listed as the giants 10th best prospect. That may be low for a guy drafted so high, or maybe just because he seems a few years away, but we have younger players, just as far away ranking higher. I do not see the Cozart deal as a no brainer, win win situation as you do. It is an interesting deal, and a very expensive way to pick up a prospect. However, if money is no object, than many of the giants arguments about money have been overplayed to the fans. I am waiting to see what other moves Zaidi makes in the off season, he does seem to be a wheeler/dealer, and every increment that the giants become better is good. If you go to any one of several giants fan sites on facebook, you can see that a large number of paying fans are upset about the Pillar situation, or at least the explanation for the Pillar situation. I hope it does not affect attendance. Now we have to see what happens to Bumgarner. Thank you once again for your excellent analysis. I enjoy reading your points of view and your in depth knowledge about baseball and especially the giants.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to play that card, then you just sunk down your point about Pillar.
DeleteHe's been in decline defensively the past two seasons, down 1.6 WAR ini 2018, down 0.5 WAR in 2019, he's headed to worse stats in 2020 for his estimated $9.7M. And you think he can be traded mid-season, but the thing is, if he could be traded then, he could have been traded now, but instead the Giants felt that there was no demand and had to non-tender him.
Gausman, on the other hand, has demand as a reliever, after his nice run with the Reds at the end of 2019. As you saw with Pomeranz, the Giants were able to pick up, at minimum, a super-utility player in Dubon (and perhaps a starting MI) plus prospects, and teams liked Pomeranz enough (similar stats), to give him a $34M contract over 4 years, but as a reliever, which probably is why Gausman did not get a bigger offer, he wanted to start..
Let's look at Gausman more indepth.
DeletePrior to 2019, his ERA was 4.12 and his FIP was 4.13, so that indicates his talent overall. Over the prior 3 seasons, as a full time starter (95 starts, so a workhorse type of pitcher), he had a 4.07 ERA with a 4.30 FIP, which is an indication of how good he had been recently.
In 2019, he had a 5.72 ERA with 3.98 FIP and a SIERA of 4.10. As a starter for the Braves, he had a bad 6.19 ERA with 4.20 FIP, but as mostly a reliever for the Reds, he had a 4.03 ERA with 3.17 FIP. And he was bombed in that one start with the Reds, so he had a 3.10 ERA as a reliever, which supports your point that he might not be able to start again.
But you are missing some points. First, his stats in 2019 are pretty much in line with his career stats, suggesting that he suffered from bad luck in 2019. Supporting that is the report that he lost a pitch he relied on while starting for the Braves, but refound as a reliever with the Reds. That one bad start was in Chicago, where the wind can hurt you a lot on certain days, and the Cubs scored 8 runs that game, he only gave up the first 3 runs. And, in any case, just one start.
Overall, sure, he might not be as good as his stats. But all indications are that he just suffered from bad luck. And if you use that line of argument for him, then Pillar's even worse, he's in the decline phase, dropping in production two straight seasons, and especially in the area that was his strength, defense, meanwhile Cozart's defense is still stellar, the question is whether he can hit well enough anymore. And you are wrong, he's not a trade chip mid-season, he doesn't hit and he can't field well anymore, so no team will pay for him, the Giants would have to pay another team to take him off their hands.
Meanwhile, Gausman was great as a reliever, and like they did with Pomeranz, they can then flip him for an interesting prospect mid-season, for roughly the same contact as Pillar.
Re-reading your comment (dude, you need to use returns to break up your comment), you have a misconception: Zaidi never said that he dropped Pillar for financial reasons, he said he did it for baseball reasons, mainly the issue of giving starts and opportunities to young prospects.
DeletePerhaps my comparing him with the other transactions confused you, but I think I mentioned this fact in my post somewhere.
In any case, and I didn't cover this in my post, I'm happy he's doing this because Pillar was not happy being moved to RF, and I want Duggar, who is an elite fielding CF, to get to compete to start there.
So the scenarios I see is hopefully Duggar wins the CF starting role, making Yaz the RF, and maybe Jaylin Davis battles Shaw for the starting LF role, among others invited or acquired in the meanwhile.
Duggar is a younger and cheaper Pillar, and more importantly, still elite defensively, his problem apparently is staying healthy. Hopefully Pillar imparted some knowledge on how to play all out without injuring himself.
Forgot to also add that if Duggar flames out again as starting CF, Yaz has played there before, and the players battling for the LF corner OF position (forgot to mention Dickerson in the contenders) can also slot into the RF position.
DeleteFor 2019, this did not make sense, if you are trying to contend. That's why they started the season by acquiring Pillar and Austin soon after the season started, the others were placeholders, wild shots in the dark placeholders.
But clearly they are not making any pretense of trying to contend hard for 2020, they will do their best, but I assume all moves will be made with an eye towards 2021 and beyond.
This is different from Zaidi's stance for 2019, he stated in a recent interview that he avoided multi-year deals last off-season, but will be open to them this off-season, signaling that he's viewing 2021 as the year the Giants will be aiming to be seriously competitive.
That fits in the apparent timetable of when Bart and Ramos should be reaching and staying in the majors. Both should be forcing their way onto the MLB roster between mid-season 2020 and mid-season 2021, ideally taking over as starters (or co-starter in Bart's case, with Posey) at the start of 2021. Corry might not be far behind, about a year behind them.
Plus, Webb, Beede, and Menez all were very interesting in the high minors, and hopefully will figure some things out in 2020-21.
Just look at the WAR stats for Cozart vs. Pillar. Cozart might be older, and he was injured to boot, but in roughly a quarter of a season, he produced half a win in value through his defense. Pillar ended up negative, both per bWAR analysis.
DeleteIn any case, let's assume you (and many others) are right and Cozart is so bad that he gets DFAed in spring training. Then the Giants paid $12.7M to acquire SS Wilson.
That is very high compared to what teams normally pay for prospects, whether via the draft or the IFA system. That's probably what you are reacting to.
But remember, the system is rigged for the owners. They set up their slots for the draft to keep the bonuses very low. About 10 years ago, the Nats were paying bonuses of $10-15M to get Harper and Strasburg. IFA bonuses were getting that high too.
Look at that guy we signed, Lucius Fox. He was living in the US and would have had to go through the draft like his fellow countryman, Jonathan India. But he went back home to the Carribean, and went into the IFA, and he got $6M (with the Giants effectively paying $12M because of the penalty).
So that's why $12.7M seems high, you are seeing it through the lens of the main systems set up to supply prospects to teams, which is set up to keep the prices down below market rates, if teams were free to bid up prices/bonuses.
Now, that said, $12.7M might still be high for a prospect like Wilson. But given that the Giants have money to spend on prospects, but unable to spend it via the draft or IFA, they instead found this other avenue of giving money to other teams, in exchange for prospects.
And, frankly, this is better for the acquiring team over the other methods. When you draft, you only get to see how they do in college; they have now seen Wilson in action in the pros. When it's IFA, they are underaged, and requires huge projections.
He's already played college and some pro, so, if you like what you see, that boosts the value of the prospect in the eyes of the acquiring team, and thus are willing to pay more.
I understand that WAR is not a be all and end all, I think I've made that clear with my posts here and on Twittter. But it's a language that most understand, so I go there a lot.
DeleteLet's use something you might understand better. He hit .264/.293/.442/.735 for the Giants. The average NL starter hit .254/.324/.434/.758, the average NL OF hit .260/.333/.452/.785, and the average CF hit .254/.321/.420/.741. He mainly batted 6th, though bouncing between 5th, 6th, 7th, and the average 6th place hitter hit .255/.316/.430/.746.
So he's a below average hitter, by a good amount, compared to an average NL hitter, and especially compared to NL OF, but is just slightly below average for a CF and for a 6th place hitter.
Defensively, he appears to be below average. -0.2 dWAR per Baseball-Reference.com. And he has been in a free fall since 2016: 2.7 in 2016, then 1.9, 0.3, -0.2. He has roughly fell by 1 win each season over the past 3 seasons.
By DRS/year from 2016: 19, 13, -2, -5. That's 8 runs average decline per season, or roughly a win each season.
Per Fangraphs Def: 14.4, 7.7, 4.3, 1.2. So Fangraphs still thinks he's above average but just slightly so.
Per Fangraphs UZR/150: 16.8, 6.3, 2.5, -1.6. But here he's negative.
Per Statcast Savant, Outs Above Average: 10, 0, 5, 3
And look at Statcast: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kevin-pillar-607680?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb
His route has gotten worse and worse, getting redder and redder, feeding into the narrative that I've seen both Jays and Giants fan have complained about: the reason he makes those highlight catches is because he's not taking a good route to the ball, resulting in his need to make the circus catch, where others make a routine catch.
As I've stated, the Giants need to sign Bumgarner in order to appease fans over the whole team situation, both Pillar and the Kapler situation, to be specific, as well as the possibility that he might end up with the Dodgers. That's the price, I believe, and we owe it to Bum, and the fans want to see it too, and it won't hamstring the team long-term.
DeleteBut attendance will go down, losing does that to the Giants. Presumably that's in Zaidi's analytical radar, as well as ownership, but we'll see how they react to this pressure.
Lastly, lets look at the $12.7M price for Wilson. That's roughly the price for one WAR production.
DeleteHere are the stats I have on the 15th pick of the draft, let's see how that works out.
Out of the 49 picks at #15 who signed with their drafting team:
* 22 of them (45%) never made the majors (or busts)
* 9 of them (18%) had negative WAR
* 9 of them (18%) were below average, or mediocre (0 to 8.9 bWAR)
* 3 of them (6%) were average, or useful (9 to 17.9 bWAR)
* 4 of them (8%) were good (18+ bWAR)
* 1 of them (2%) was very good (36+ bWAR)
* 1 of them (2%) was HoF good (54+ bWAR)
If you work back the expectancy of value production, based on those defined categories, that comes out roughly to an expected 6 bWAR, just based on when the player is drafted. Presumably there is some information contained in the scouting of Wilson's pro debut that should up the expected value, so it should be higher, but likely not much higher.
In any case, let's use 6 bWAR expectancy, which would happen if you had, say, a 1,000 #15 picks, using the probabilities over the 50 years of the draft that my draft study covered. Let's say a WAR on the free agent market is worth about $12M, which is what Matt Swartz forecasted. That means that his expected value is roughly $72M, for which the Giants just made a $12.7M bet that he pays off.
And that works out to about a bet of 1 WAR.
Now, that's average. As the odds I have above shows, 63% of the time, the prospect either never makes the majors or ends up with negative WAR. Unfortunately, I did not break up my data collection to see how many were above 1.0 bWAR: oh wait, I have the data, so there were 16 players who produced at least 1.0 bWAR when drafted with the #15 pick overall, or 33% of the draft picks. Presumably the odds of determining whether the prospect is a major leaguer or not is improved by scouting plus seeing his pro debut, but still, 33% of the time is not that bad for ROI on $12.7M when the payoff averages around $72M. At least for me.
Follow up news about the Cozart trade: Giants sent Garrett Williams as the player to be named later (#29 Giants prospect per MLB Pipeline), an interesting LHP who has had severe command issues in his career.
ReplyDeleteAnother follow-up: Cozart has been DFAed, ironically so that the Giants could add an Angel's pitcher who had a horrible 2019, so the Giants are relying solely upon Wilson to produce at least 1-2 WAR to get ROI on their investment. As I noted above, it's either a huge payoff or no payoff, just drilling holes to see if you strike oil or end up with a plugged hole.
DeleteAt 33% chance of payoff, it means that there's 67% chance that he fails to return the money invested. So more likely than not, he won't amount to much, if anything (nearly half the time never makes the majors). But if they hit on something, he'll pay off multiple fold, probably.
Of course, with some professional production under his hat, it improves the odds of him making the majors, just how much, we don't know. 25%? 50%?
He's been lauded for his defensive skills in college, so that, for me, gives him a floor of value, perhaps he can turn out to be an adequate utility player.
Before you scoff, Kelby Tomlinson produced 1.9 bWAR for the Giants as a tweener middle infielder, which would pay off the investment in Wilson if he can just duplicate Kelby's production.
However, Kelby excelled in rookie ball in his first pro seasons, hitting .960 OPS, with good batting peripherals. Wilson only hit .768 OPS and struck out a lot, 47 times in 189 AB, only 75% contact rate, and only 30% BB/K ratio, when you want to see the ratio closer to 100%. Hopefully the Giants see something that they can fix in Wilson to improve his strikeout rate, and at 7% BB/PA, his walk rate needs improving as well.
He was 50th in the league by OPS, which is nice but not even good. He's maybe Top 20 among hitters 20 YO and younger. The average OPS was .754, so at .768 being above average (102?) while being younger is a positive sign. His contact rate was also above the average of 72% for the league, but his walk rate was below the average of 8.8%.
Still, if he can keep this up as he rises up the ladder, being an average hitter in the majors is still valuable, and if he can then add defensive value on top of that, then he can be useful on a major league roster, while not costing that much in payroll. So his floor looks likely to me to be above the cost of the Cozart contract.
I Love the term dude. But as long as we are relying or hoping that Duggar comes out both as an elite fielder and a serviceable hitter, is somehow speculation, as the "Dude" cannot seem to stay healthy. Let us hope that it reverses itself. You are saying it wasn't about the money with Pillar, because Zaidi said it was about baseball? But the 9.7 million dollar figure keeps coming up, and as far as I can determine, that figure is about money. We can all hope that the giants can field a better outfield this year for the full season, but we have a bunch of triple A, studs, Davis, and Shaw, who miss the baseball at very high rates. I do like Duggar, but his fragility at a young age is bothersome.
ReplyDeleteI see some of the defensive metrics have tried to show that Pillar's defense is declining. But I watch every game, and sometimes I wonder who puts these metrics together, because the so-called drop-off was not apparent. There are still elite fielding outfielders who are older.
Right now, if healthy it looks as if Yaz and Dickerson are starters, Shaw and Duggar are possibilities but both also lefties. Then we have Davis, McCarthy and Slater, all righties. If we do not move any of them, at least two or three of them will start the year in the minors.
Hoping at least one or two of them can find lightning in a bottle. On the starting pitching side we have Beede and Webb, who both have shown flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency. Hoping they will improve, and not backslide like Rodriguez and Suarez did last year. They also provide us with some depth.
Here are the facts as I know it. Zaidi said it was not about money, he said it was a baseball decision made because they wanted to give their OF prospects the opportunity to play.
DeleteHowever, everyone else, including me, want to see what we can do with that money freed.
I'm the one saying Duggar, because he's the obvious top option for CF, and was supposed to be the CF of the future last season, only he did so badly that even though Pillar was pushed to RF for him, he still couldn't hack it. As I noted too, yes, totally unknown whether he can hack it or not, and that's why I noted that Yaz most likely is the backup for starting CF if Duggar fails (again).
I did not mention, but there is some chance that Heliot Ramos could break out and push his way to the majors by the second half, and if so, he likely would become the CF.
I agree that OF is not up to par right now, and am worried as well. I'm assuming the rumors that the Giants are in on Castellanos is true, and he would then provide at least one proven bat there, along with Yaz's nice breakout year he can follow up with a good season, giving us two good OF. I too would not be happy having Yaz as the best proven bat in the OF on Opening Day.
THe stats does not say that there are no older elite OF. I know that Markakis was good until last season, and Brett Gardner, another oldie, has been pretty good for the Yankees, I was hoping to get him last off season.
DeleteThe stats say that Pillar has been in sharp decline and was only about average last season, which is still good, but again, in decline for a number of years now.