Deadline Approach: Cain Cain Cain, Fans in Pain

As the season opener approaches, and the deadline Cain had set for settling the extension approaches, many fans are frustrated that the Giants have not backed up the truck and deposited the millions Cain is reportedly asking for (9 figures).  While I'm antsy too, this is just big business negotiating, there was almost no way a contract would be signed early.

As seen in many negotiations run in public, like strikes or union deals, or closer, in signing draft picks, things don't get done often until just before the deadline.  I still believe that this extension deal with Cain will get done.

Most importantly of all, that don't fit his behavior from before.  Both of his prior long-term extension deals were not deals for top money.  He could have pushed for more, like Lincecum did with the Indians, hence why I think Lincecum is the harder one to sign of the two into his free agent years.  And he seems like the same guy he was when he came up.

So if the rumors of the Giants latest offer is close to the truth - 5 years, $90M - I still believe that Cain will sign for something in the 5 year, $90-100M range, with possible kickers of one and maybe two years additional at $20M each, both vesting if he pitches enough innings, similar to Zito's option year.  That would bring Cain to the 9-digit level his side craves and that is the key here to understanding the lack of movement and the leaks of information regarding the negotiations.

Cain has new agents - his agents joined a new agency and turned over the reins to, I'm guessing, more senior and experienced negotiators in that agency.  They want to get every dollar out of the stone.  If you give up everything early, they will assume you have more to give and continue to haggle for money.  So had fans been in control and gave Cain the reported 6 years, $120M contract that they were rumored to be asking for, his agents would probably say, whoa there, that's nice, but we actually wanted more than that (agents are very smart - so are GMs - and they never give the other side exactly what their demands are, instead many floats balloons through willing media representatives), and negotiations would now begin on a 7 year, $145M contract (because by then he should get a raise).

It never ends.  Until the end, at the deadline.

So I assume the "impasse" means that the Giants are near where they are willing to pay but Cain's new agents want to make a big splash by securing the first 9 figure contract for a right-hander since Kevin Brown, and attract other top hurlers to join their agency by pointing to that shining example.  So with a couple of days left, I expect there to be movement and the Giants would finally move their final piece to move on the chess board, and with time running out, there will be a glorious press conference announcing that both sides had to give a little, but after kicking some tires around, they were able to come to a mutually agreeable contract, with both sides winning.

Of course, just my opinion, but given Cain's history of elbow issues (at least three reported instances in his pro career, and who knows how many unreported) and his agent's duty of fiduciary responsibility, they cannot in good conscience advice Cain not to sign a contract in the $90-100M range because that could all go away with one snap of something.  Just look at what happened with Ryan Madson, lucky for the Reds it was only a one year deal, but what if he was signed to a 4 year deal?

The bigger issue, to me, has always been Tim Lincecum, followed closely by Bumgarner.  Lincecum has asked for top dollar at every opportunity.  Not to say it wasn't undeserved, but still, that is his behavior.  And Bumgarner has deep family ties that I don't see how he don't end up with the Braves after his 7 years with the Giants.