Your 2014 Giants: MiLBA 2014 Arrived!

Happy First Day of Spring Training!  I just got my Minor League Baseball Analyst annual for 2014 and wanted to share.  And Haft reported on his blog that Sandoval looked real good (for him), and Pavlovic also reported that Sanchez learned his lesson and that Hudson is fine physically, running and doing everything without thinking about it, and is nearly 100%.



ogc thoughts

First off, they actually rate the Giants a B+ for the system, and they were only one of two systems to get an A for Pitching, SD being the other.  Other clubs also got B+ for their system, so you can call it a tie for 8th, but physically, on the list, they were 11th.  8th tie is probably better, Miami is above them but the Giants were better in Pitching and Top-End Talent (rated B+ there too) and same in Depth (Giants one of many to get B+), while only behind on one, hitting (natch).  But maybe they rounded to a grade from a numeric system, so who knows?

Second, they devoted a section to sleepers outside their Top 100 and Ty Blach got a shoutout there, and they note that the Giants "have stockpiled an impressive arsenal of young arms and Blach is right there in the the conversation as one of the better ones."  He's projected as a #3 starter.  Plus FB (up to 94) and plus Change-up.

They have been higher on Blackburn than other publications and continue to be, rating him as a future #2, probably why they rank the Giants system higher than other experts.  Crick is also projected as a #2 too, as well as Escobar, giving the Giants three potential #2 starters (I'll note here that Waldis Joaquin was once projected as a #2, so there is no guarantees) .  Not as enamored with Mejia, he's only a 4th starter, and Agosta is a #4/reliever, due to lack of a passable changeup, he will need that to start, they say.  Gregorio is also a #4.  They like Mella more, #3 and Stratton is also viewed as a #3, which is actually the same they said in last year's book.

There were others.  They also like Bochy Jr, in spite of his lackluster velocity.  Chase Johnson, #4.  Stephen Johnson, power reliever.  Mike Kickham only gets #5/reliever.  Surkamp was also #5, FYI.  Not sure why, but Law only projected to be setup, not closer.  Osich power reliever.

Lots of great info on each pitcher, pitches he throws, some velocity, particularly FB, how good each pitch is, stats, coding on potential and probability, and a paragraph description.  Crick is rated the 14th best starting pitcher, Blackburn 58th, Escobar 65th, Stratton 66th.  Wow, minor separation it seems, as Escobar is projected #2 starter, Stratton #3.

They also provide MLE's in back.  I like their system because it takes level into consideration, as well as age, and only does it for AA and AAA.  Escobar, for example, his AA MLE was 2.52 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 4.1 K/BB, 136 BPV (where 50 is min for long-term success, and elite bullpen aces should have over 100 and at least 75, so Escobar's stats in AA was very good).  To contrast, Kickham had basically 4.00 ERA performance in 2012 and 2013, roughly 60 BPV both seasons, which is average (which is good for the majors).  With a surplus of lefties rising in Escobar, Blach, and Mejia, Kickham might get permanently moved to relief, as a loogy, once the others are ready.

There is also a Top 15 in the back for each team.  They still like Panik (7th still) but Brown is off the list.  Cabrera is still on it at 14th (does not appear to acknowledge his horrific injury to his wrist) and Johneshwy Fargas is #15.  They see JF as a future starting CF with good speed helping his defense.

Wow, Susac didn't even make the top 15.  They appear to not like his poor contact rate, plus rate him below average for power (I thought that was one of his strong points), BA, and speed (no surprise for a C) but plus defensively.  They still like him enough to project him as a starting C.  As good as his numbers looked in AA, MLE was only .648 OPS, so that's probably why.  Didn't mention his AFL, so I wonder if this would change if they did account for that.

I heartily recommend this book to any prospect hound, gives another view of the players and it's cheap via Amazon, like $15-20.  They give the best combo of scouting (they all scout the leagues, from what I understand) as well as sabermetric evaluations.  I sometimes find their description does not match what they say about the pitches, but overall I like their evaluations a lot.