Your 2018 Giants: Giants Offensive Offense

I see a lot of complaints about the Giants offense, so here's my post with my opinions on what is happening.  And, of course, other random tangential thoughts.

And, of course, it took too long to finish.  The data is as of games to September 9th.

ogc thoughts

Yeah, the offense sucks.  But all the raging I've seen online seems to ignore the elephant in the room:  any team's offense will suck when all six of your six best hitters are not performing.  And really, all 8 lineup position.

All the Good Hitters Are Missing In Action

Obviously, McCutchen is not performing because he's not here, and Posey as well, since he had surgery.  Both Belt and Crawford, while not DLed, has been severely hampered by knee injuries (yes both have the same injury), and when playing, been hitting horribly.  Then Longoria and Panik are both not performing at all.  And I don't know where exactly Duggar falls in terms of ranking, but he was doing well enough for the 7th or 8th hitter, and he's injured. 

And when all of your best hitters are not around, there is no way any team can replace the offensive production of every hitter.  You might be able to replace one or two hitters, if the losses happened in areas of depth, but no team has the talent depth to cover almost every lineup position.  And when that happens, that means replacement level or lower hitters being forced into producing for the team, like they are starters, like Hanson, Slater, and others.

In the last 28 days, McCutchen led the way with .808 OPS, but he was the only regular hitter above .700 OPS, which is the hitter you want to be batting 7th or 8th, not the guy batting all through the lineup.  Filling out the top five regular starters, Duggar is next at .655 OPS, Slater at .653 (which is why he's been in the starting lineup in 15 of the last 18 games), Longoria .647, Pence .627 (yes, Pence has been our 5th best regular starter in the past month, that's why he's starting regularly).  Panik at .607 OPS, is 6th best, and everyone else, including all the young players, are hitting under .600.  That's a horrible offense, right there.

But few mention the injuries, and most pooh pooh that, but I think the above is very stark and clear, when you replace most of your lineup with replacement players or lower, you are going to have an offense that is bad.   And so there are mostly cries to play the young.

Youth Does Not Equate to Good or Getting Better

Now, at lot of people are barking loudly every time one of the vets, like Longoria, Pence, and Panik are starting, while the young guys sit.  But the fact is, the young have been performing poorly when given the chance.

Many seems to take the position that it is better to see the young play, even if bad, instead of the veterans, blaming Bochy for playing veterans (I would note that they were strangely quiet when the vets were winning championships for the Giants; if you really believe this, you are a fair weather fan by not sticking to your guns when the vets are performing, and really, unobservant of baseball history, there has never been a team that fielded all rookies or young players, there are always veterans contributing and often leading the way).  Baseball is a meritocracy.  You don't want to reward lousy performances, and, really, MLB starts is a huge reward.  So that is a great reason why you don't want to just start young guys all the time.

Another reason not to start young guys are that, if they are struggling, they sometimes need to take time off from the game to focus on working on learning tweaks to their swings to fix their approach.  We've seen this a lot with Belt and Crawford, where they get sat a game to work on something.  And, to get them out of the rut that happens when you have been knocking your head against the rock and not getting anywhere.  Some need more time off than others, as Belt and Crawford were good prospects, whereas most of the prospects playing right now were not good prospects.  Hence why only Duggar and Slater were getting regular starts, hence why they gave Hanson more starts when he was hitting, and less as the league figured him out.

Another reason not to start young guys is to avoid situations where you are pretty sure he's going to fail in.  I'm still surprised as heck that people don't understand this.  Shaw the is the poster child for this, as 1) he didn't hit all that well in AAA, and if McCutchen wasn't traded, he was not guaranteed an opportunity to come up and see what he can do, until maybe later in the month, and 2) he really didn't hit all that well in AAA against LHP, if AAA LHP could get him out easily, MLB LHP would get him out really easily, the leap in talent is that great.

If you don't believe me, stand in and bat against a pitching machine throwing 90 MPH fastballs at you, and see if you don't get discouraged after a while.  I know I did.  But I was bad against even the slower speeds, but practicing at the lower speeds, I got better at hitting the ball, as I acclimated to it, and we could go faster.  If you can only walk, trying to run will just frustrate you, you  are not ready to try advanced things.  And Shaw was clearly not ready when he came up, 10 strikeouts in 14 AB's is a very clear indication that Shaw was not ready, you don't want to kill his confidence.

And with two walks in his last two appearances, he looks like he's starting to incorporate some of the changes that the Giants batting coaches have been trying to help him with.   There is nothing as frustrating as being asked to do something that you keep on failing big time on.

You do not want to kill the confidence of your young hitters.  If you just threw him out there everyday, knowing that he'll fail, there are very few hitters in history who has the self confidence to withstand such a monstrous failure.  He'll eventually get it into his head that he can't hit MLB hitting, and you just screwed up his development, you may as well DFA him now, as he's useless to you now.  By playing him on and off, he'll understand both that he's not ready yet, but that's okay, he's learning, and this will also allow him to think that he didn't get a chance to get into a rhythm because he wasn't starting regularly.  It's to protect his psyche and confidence. 

Home Not Sweet Home (at least for hitting)

For Longoria, when I looked into his stats, the key issues was very clear:  he hasn't figured out how to hit in ATT yet.  He has a great .783 OPS on the road, while really sucking at home, .598 OPS.  And his last home series was even worse:  .564 OPS.   From what I recall, in the park's early years, Grissom, Alfonzo, and Durham all talked about the learning curve for learning how to hit in the park and it appears that Longoria is having the same issue.

Pence suffered from the same issue, and never really figured it all out.  His first season here, 2012, he hit .204/.283/.316/.600 at home, .231/.291/.438/.729 on the road. And while he closed the gap in subsequent seasons, he never closed the gap, getting roughly within 50 points in the following two seasons.

However, as a counter point, while Grissom, Alfonzo, and Durham talked about the learning curve, they all had pretty good home OPS relative to road in their first Giants season, only Alfonzo had a lower OPS in his first season, and that he was essentially the same at home and road.  And he crushed it at home the following two seasons, it was his road numbers that were terrible.  And that is the general historic precedence for most hitters:  they hit better at home than on the road.

Other hitters the Giants acquired had varied experiences.  Randy Winn appears to have had no adjustment period, and, for the most part, hit equally well at home and road in his early years with the Giants.  Rowand was like Pence, suffered from a Home vs. Road deficit.  Renteria did worse his first year, equal in his second.  Molina roughly hit equal his first two seasons, then crushed it in his third, though like others, hit really bad on the road.   Perhaps ATT is the reverse Coors, hitters change their swing to work at ATT only to find it don't work elsewhere.  Huff, in his first season, hit much better on the road, but hit well at home too, just superstar great on the road, which earned him his big contract.  Still, overall, there does seem to be a learning curve, and once handled, the player hits better at home than on the road, but for some, only part of the curve is learned.  And McCutchen started out good at home, and stayed roughly there, up and down, for the season.

Longoria Been Hitting:  On the Road Again

So will Longoria figure it out?  Impossible to say definitively, but a .783 OPS hitter is still a very good hitter, and given the variety involved in terms of parks, that seems a better indication of Longoria as a hitter than his horrendous numbers in ATT, that he's just been bad in ATT.  And that suggests that he'll figure it out at some point.

Looking at Contact Rate, he has had a 80% contact rate at home, 78% on the road, so he's making more contact at home, which is a good sign.  Walk rate, 5.3% at home, 3.6% on the road, another good sign.  For a very good sign, combining the two, his BB/K is 28.6% at home, only 17.0% on the road, almost twice as good.  But his BABIP at home has been horrible.

There has also been a lot of people noting that he has had a very good hard contact season, per StatCast, but just not been getting the results.  That's clearly a home issue, he appears to be making hard contact at ATT, but hitting it to the spot in the field where the marine layer or whatever is making the ball fall in the glove instead of hitting the ground.

Panik Has Not Been Hitting

Panik has not hit for the second season out of three.  Is he up and down?  That is how his seasons performances ranged, which would mean 2019 should be a good year, if he continues that trend (which, of course, is random, but just that this is his trend so far).

He's actually been having a great season with a 92% contact rate and 88% BB/K, both usually good indicators of a good hitter, and often a great hitter.  Normally, you let a hitter like that work out his issues, but this is his second bad season in three.  A huge issue has been his abject inability to hit LHP this season, which is generally a BABIP bad luck issue due to SSS, since there are not that many LHP.  But his RHP batting line is only okay, not that good, perhaps not even average (.707 OPS).  And that is a huge issue when 70% of his AB's have been in the key batting positions, leadoff and second.

He's been in his usual #2 hitter spot roughly the same as leadoff.  At leadoff, a good offense really needs a high OBP hitter here, ideally .350+.   He had a .286 OBP batting leadoff in 2018.  Some studies have suggested that you should put your best hitter second in the lineup.  This is because you want a high OPB hitter there, to start a rally by getting on base, much like a leadoff hitter, but then you also want a high SLG/ISO in order to either drive in the leadoff hitter if he's on base, or to put a runner in scoring position for the middle of the lineup.  He had an okay .333 OBP there, but only .402 SLG and 112 ISO, and so he's both not driving in the leadoff hitter if he's on base, nor is he getting in scoring position for the middle of the lineup.  That's a good reason why the offense appears to be spinning their wheel in the mud this season.

This ties in with my analysis in my earlier post about how Bochy has cost our offense's production by not using the right hitters in the right batting positions.  To recap:  he's essentially been batting the guy who should be batting 7th in the leadoff position, and that had he changed every lineup to move the leadoff to 7th and moving everyone else up, the team would have added 3-4 wins.   Panik at leadoff is part of that mis-match.  He probably should not even be batting second as long as he's subpar overall, he really should be batting 7/8 if he's only hitting low .700 OPS.

My Philosophy for Following Baseball:  Relax, Enjoy the Ride

I've been thinking a lot about what it means, at least for me, to be a baseball fan, lately.  All the Sturm and Drang I've been seeing (a number of people have been raging on The Athletic and Twitter, and at me, for having the temerity to not believe what they are saying; it's okay, I went through this in 2007-2012) have stirred up a lot of feelings for me.  I am realizing that I follow baseball a lot differently than other people.

I'm not sure how I turned out this way, but as far as I'm concerned the Giants are my team, no question.  But as a fan, I want to enjoy following my team, so I generally adjust my mindset towards the team by trying hard to figure out how good/bad the team will be that season, and how the team advances towards that range.  So I can enjoy seasons like 2018 (2017, not so much, other than the draft pick), because the Giants were performing about what I was expecting (.500-ish team with probability of being in the mid to upper 80 win range).  I've been enjoying Giants baseball for over 45 years!

Not that I don't get frustrated when there is no hope.  But I realized that I don't understand fans who rage like they do.  I follow baseball because I am a fan of the game.  It's a game that gave me a chance to be the hero sometimes, a very democratic sport, unlike football or basketball.  In baseball, even though I was selected last (or second to last) generally, I still got to play and I had the chance to get the winning hit or make the great defensive play.  In football, my skinny body relegated me to lineman play, and really, I had no other skills, so I understood why.  In basketball, my tall body allowed me to rebound and shoot over others, but generally there was THAT ball hog who had to run the defense, which was okay with me, I didn't have that skill either.  But I can still remember my baseball successes, and I eventually was the leadoff hitter for my college intramural team that went 8-1.

And if you are going to follow a sport, it's a hobby, right?  You are supposed to have fun with it, and enjoy the experience.  And these people are miserable.  Even after the first one, most seemed to feel that it was just a fluke, and would not even acknowledge that Sabean accomplished something.  And many, frankly, even after the second and third championships seem to think they know more than he does about running a championship team.  Nobody is beyond criticism, even Sabean, but these people think they know more, and they don't.

I feel sorry for them because, while the season didn't go the way I would have liked, there were exciting aspects to the 2018 season that gives me optimism not only for the future, but for the 2019 season.  I'll share some now.

My 2018 Silver Linings:  Starting Rotation

Most of all is our starting rotation.  Bumgarner, D-Rod, Suarez, Holland and Stratton has been a good to great rotation.  In June, the SP (which was mostly them)  had a 2.93 ERA and in August, a 3.12 ERA (and that's with Stratton and Suarez struggling that month).  And the four starters had a 3.10 ERA in July (includes some relief stints when they were given rest; does not include Stratton who had one bad start in the month).  The 2009 Giants SP had a 3.58 ERA overall, 3.54 ERA overall in 2010, 3.28 ERA overall in 2011, 3.73 ERA overall in 2012.

You can't really luck yourself into three straight months of producing at an ace level, as a staff.  As the mantra I learned from Baseball Forecaster does, once a player produces, he owns that skill, then it is a matter of him figuring out how to keep that going.  I would modify slightly that some things are luck involved due to BABIP and HR/FB, but over time, talent will out.  Half a season, while not enough to prove that they can continue to produce, obviously, you have to have some talent to perform this well for so long, so then the question becomes whether the pitcher can tap into that regularly.

Barring injury or another team offering big money/years to Holland, we should have the rotation back in 2019.  Samardzija is the fly in the ointment.  People have criticized his signing, but he was worth the risk, the potential was there for the cost of an average pitcher, but he could only get it together part of the time, and have up and down seasons.

Best Laid Plans of Mice and Men

And the Giants did try to trade the Shark , from what I recall of the rumor, last season, but he vetoed the trade, that would have cleared out his contract.  As would the Giants been cleared of Cueto's salary had the MLB didn't muck around with the ball in 2018, causing his blister; his great start to 2018 showed that he has the skills to compete, and had the blisters not interfered, he would have opted out looking for David Price type of contract, and we would have been free of that as well).

I like that the Giants swung for the fences with the two signings, but like all things in life, sometimes things don't work out the way you want, it happens, and it's nobody's fault, as much as most people want to assign blame.  If the Giants didn't take these risks, then they may as well had rebuilt totally back after the 2015 season, when our stars were still young and presumably still competitive, which would have been even more idiotic.  Free agency is a dice roll, you take your chances.  The Giants mitigated it well, I feel, by giving Cueto a two year opt out (which should have happened), and did try to trade Shark (not so well mitigated as the contract allowed him to veto the trade).

Pitcher And Hitter Development Is Hard

Some blame the Giants for not developing the new pitchers to take over, but player development is not that simple or easy.  The draft is the main semi-reliable source of young talent in the game.  IFA is full of failures and wasted money as well, I would love to see someone analyze the history of IFA signings to see how badly teams did.

For the draft, not only does it take most prospects 3-6 years to become good players in the majors, but that's for the ones who actually become good players, the vast majority fail to do much of anything in the majors, a few become useful players who contributes to a team, and even fewer become the stars we all talk about when we talk about a first round drat pick.  And the odds gets exponentially worst as you go from the first pick to the back end of the first round, and continues exponentially into the later rounds.

And from what my first study of the draft showed, developing a good player could take a long time to do once you become regularly competitive and getting "bad" draft picks in the first round.   Just examine any team who has been competitive and you will see this is so.  For an example, the Yankees are noted for developing Aaron Judge, but nobody notes that the last good player they developed came from 2005 draft (Judge was drafted in 2013 and broke out in 2016), or that their prior good player developed was last in 1995.  So that's a long stretch between finding good players, 10 years and then 8 years.  You will find that to be generally true for any time competing well, it's a relatively random process, I'm not sure there is any statistics tool that can reach significance when the odds are that low, while the sample size is so tiny (for most GM's, under 10 years, if not 5 years).

That's why I focus more on results related to success in this area, which I do by seeing what portion of the 25-man roster is homegrown, and secondarily, who were acquired using prospect assets.  One study done by Fangraphs a few years back found that the Giants led the majors by far in homegrown percentage with 63%; next bests were St. Louis with 53%, Reds and Twins with 52%, with average of 34% (Free Agents 18%, Trades 36%, and IFA 10%; again, veterans, as represented by Free Agents and Trades, which are mostly veterans, are necessary for any team).

Given The Credit Due Sabean

I even see people grudgingly grant that the Giants added D-Rod, Holland, and Suarez to the rotation, but then give the back of the hand to Sabean and gang by noting that it was not like they planned it.  Let's get that out of the way first:  no GM can plan for successfully adding any players to a 25-man roster.  If that was as easy as people think, then everybody would be doing it.

All teams can do is acquire talent, in whatever way possible, and try to nurture it and develop it, and when the player is ready, figure out a way to give him an opportunity to show the team what he's made of.  Sometimes the team opens up a spot, but the prospect fails.  Brian Wilson was assumed to be part of the bullpen one season, but flamed out in spring training and the Giants were forced to send him to AAA to work on things. 

Sometimes the team gives the prospect chances over and over, but he never took hold.  I saw someone complained that the Giants screwed up Schierholtz recently.  Long ago when I read that the Giants did not give him a chance, pulling him in and out, so I went into the game logs for Nate to see if that was true.  It was not.

The Giants gave Nate a lot of extended chances.  They would play him as a starter, and he would be like the Human Torch, flame on, flame off.  Or he would get injured.  And when he returned, they put him right back into the lineup, but when he flamed off, he was bone-chilling cold, and eventually the Giants had to take him out of the lineup.  And it wasn't just the Giants, his next teams gave him chances too, and he failed there too.

And it was not just Schierholtz.  I looked at all the prospects of that time, Bowker, Ellison, Niekro, Ishikawa, Lewis, and the Giants gave them extended chances to establish themselves and they all failed, and then failed with the teams that they went to afterward.  Maybe it is not Sabean, as these Naysayers think, but the players that they fell in love with. 

These people think I'm a homer or paid by the team, but no, I'm somebody better:  I check out the crap that people think are true and examine whether they are correct or not.  And the vast majority of the time, they think they know what they are talking about, but never bothered to see if their impressions were real or just in their heads.  I examine my crap regularly, to be sure I'm speaking properly with facts and not opinions (though I also provide that as well). 

Sabean may not have planned on D-Rod or Suarez, or even Holland, but the Front Office saw something in all of them to acquire them and work with them.  Sure D-Rod is a huge surprise, I doubt the Giants knew that he would do this well.  But that's basically true of anybody who isn't drafted in the Top 5 overall picks, there are big question marks for all the picks after, some bigger than others, that's just how the draft works.  Nobody knew Trout, or Pujols, or even Kershaw  would be so good, else they would have drafted him before the teams who did.  Same for almost every other major leaguer who has ever played, so if you aren't going to credit Sabean for acquiring these players, then you aren't crediting any other team either, and thus think that no team needs a GM.  Because they didn't plan for them.

And I wrote about Holland's huge upside right around the start of the season, maybe end of Spring Training.  I was very excited to see what he could do for us.  And I wrote that Suarez was my dark horse for making the opening day starting rotation, and while he didn't do that, he has done well in the majors for us, with peak pitching in there that, if he can figure out how to do regularly, he and D-Rod could be co-aces themselves.  So it doesn't take a genius to see this stuff, you just have to be diligent (and obsessive) about it.

My 2018 Silver Linings:  Bullpen

The bullpen is looking pretty good for 2019, as long as Bochy can manage the usage of the top guys better.  Moronta, Black, Watson, and Smith appears to be gassed in recent appearances.  Strickland has been his usual up and down (and, I would note, he's been mostly up for most of his Giants tenure, for those who hate him).   Before September, the total group was at 3.57 ERA, which was pretty good compared to the NL, 4.07 ERA for the 2018 season.  If you go by the six relievers, who has been mostly the core of this bullpen this season - Smith, Dyson, Watson, Melancon, Strickland, and Moronta - even with the bad September results included, they collectively have a 2.74 ERA, which is outstanding.

For those who doubt Dyson by pointing out his 2017 season, in his first 36 appearances, he had a 2.95 ERA, before two horrible appearances, when it appears his arm finally gave out, which is basically the same ERA he's at right now, 2.97 ERA for 2018.  And if Black can continue to develop more consistency, he probably pushes out Strickland or Dyson as a trade candidate during spring training next season.

My 2018 Silver Linings:  Pitching Staff

So let's recap here.  Starting rotation looks pretty great right now, and even if Holland moves on and Samardzija is the 5th starter, it'll probably be pretty good still (as I noted before, the ERA from 2009-2013 for the staff was good even though there was usually a 5th starter who was not all that good, and results in 3-5 starters pitching with varying degrees of success).  With young starters like D-Rod, Suarez, and Stratton, expect some mis-steps, and step backwards (like Stratton this season), but D-Rod has been good throughout, Suarez was fine until he got deep into the season, and he did not get any rest like D-Rod or Holland did, and Holland has been good for most of the season (duplicating his success in limited starts in prior seasons; the Giants managed his rest to perfection, allowing Holland to pitch the way he is capable of pitching before, but in limited runs).

Bullpen, as is, has been great overall, with Smith looking like the peak Affeldt type of reliever we've been missing for years now, and Melancon looking ready to take over the closer role in 2019, barring any other physical ailment.  I think having Black around is a great risk mitigation for Melancon having any injury or poor performance in 2019.

And that's the formula for the Giants to win from 2009-2012, a good rotation plus a great bullpen (and good defense), keeping the runs allowed down to Top 5 MLB ranking, which allows the team to win with a poor offense.  Barring any huge unexpected injuries (like a ball hit up the middle again), the 2019 Giants should be like the 2009 Giants, with the young starters helping to lead the team (but with a wily vet like Bumgarner leading the way, instead of a Randy Johnson). 

My 2018 Silver Linings:  Offense

The Giants in the first half of 2018 averaged 4.07 runs scored per game.  If the pitching staff can get the opposition down to the 3.60 runs allowed in 2010 (remember, these five have been averaging roughly 3.00 ERA and the bullpen around 3.00 ERA as well, and accounting for 0.25 to 0.50 runs being added ERA for runs allowed, so if everyone can repeat, 3.60 runs allowed is doable), then the Pythagorean for that is 90 wins, roughly. 

And the offense in the first half (per the great Baseball-Reference.com database) was not too out of whack with expectations for hitters:

San Francisco Giants Player Splits: 1st Half

Rk	Name	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Derek Law	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
2	Chase d'Arnaud	23	21	3	7	1	0	2	2	2	5	.333	.391	.667	1.058
3	Brandon Belt	345	296	43	85	16	1	13	42	42	69	.287	.383	.480	.862
4	Brandon Crawford	372	329	42	96	22	2	10	39	33	74	.292	.363	.462	.825
5	Alen Hanson	170	159	27	45	13	2	6	26	8	30	.283	.314	.503	.817
6	Nick Hundley	151	142	19	36	7	1	8	24	9	39	.254	.298	.486	.784
7	Gorkys Hernandez	283	260	36	72	11	1	11	30	17	74	.277	.324	.454	.778
8	Steven Duggar	29	28	6	8	5	0	0	4	1	11	.286	.310	.464	.775
9	Buster Posey	339	299	38	86	19	1	5	31	35	40	.288	.366	.408	.774
10	Andrew McCutchen	409	352	49	92	22	2	9	40	47	89	.261	.352	.412	.764
11	Austin Slater	49	39	4	11	2	0	0	5	8	13	.282	.408	.333	.741
12	Pablo Sandoval	225	204	20	51	7	0	8	35	18	48	.250	.316	.402	.718
13	Evan Longoria	270	256	28	63	16	1	10	34	10	57	.246	.278	.434	.711
14	Mac Williamson	105	94	14	20	4	0	4	11	11	27	.213	.295	.383	.678
15	Joe Panik	224	200	25	48	7	1	4	14	18	13	.240	.309	.345	.654
16	Gregor Blanco	129	120	13	29	4	3	1	5	8	37	.242	.289	.350	.639
17	Austin Jackson	165	149	12	36	8	0	0	13	14	59	.242	.309	.295	.604
18	Kelby Tomlinson	125	115	7	25	4	1	0	9	8	30	.217	.280	.270	.550
19	Miguel Gomez	15	15	3	4	0	0	0	1	0	5	.267	.267	.267	.533
20	Hunter Pence	127	118	7	25	4	1	0	11	8	35	.212	.260	.263	.523
21	Jeff Samardzija	11	10	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	.100	.100	.100	.200
22	Dereck Rodriguez	16	15	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	9	.067	.067	.133	.200
23	Chris Stratton	37	31	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	18	.097	.097	.097	.194
24	Madison Bumgarner	20	18	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	8	.056	.100	.056	.156
25	Derek Holland	33	32	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	19	.063	.063	.094	.156
26	Ty Blach	30	25	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	12	.040	.111	.040	.151
27	Andrew Suarez	31	29	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	18	.034	.067	.034	.101
28	Pierce Johnson	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
29	Tyler Beede	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
30	Roberto Gomez	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
31	Reyes Moronta	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
32	D.J. Snelten	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
33	Johnny Cueto	12	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
34	Ray Black	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Mark Melancon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Sam Dyson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
37	Jose Valdez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
38	Will Smith	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
39	Cory Gearrin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40	Josh Osich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
41	Hunter Strickland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
42	Tony Watson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Team Total	3753	3375	399	850	174	17	91	379	301	853	.252	.317	.394	.711

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/10/2018.

Crawford, Gorkys, and Hanson are not going to hit that well in all of 2019, but Pence, Jackson, and Blanco are probably not going to get that many AB's either.  Tomlinson is also iffy, with Hanson and d'Arnaud around, as well as Sandoval (best guess for bench is Hanson and Sandoval are the bench IF for 2019, Slater or Mac, plus Gorkys, the bench OF, with Hundley the backup C; I'm hoping Mac gets to battle Slater for starting LF position, but with the payroll freed up, I suspect they will sign a relatively okay LF starter, not a limited player like Austin Jackson was, or that Span proved to be).

Panik at 2B is the most obvious area of upgrade, where the Giants, now free of spending limits, could sign a starting 2B like the Rockies LeMahieu, while either trading Panik or non-tendering him, if it gets that far, though I would expect the Rockies to want to keep LeMahieu around.  I expect the Giants to explore 2B options, but could end up with Panik again in 2019, but hopefully he's batting 7/8 instead of 1/2.  He's been too unreliable to bat 2nd going forward.

I would also expect the Giants to try for Harper but end up with McCutchen as their starting RF.  I would also expect Posey to hit better (which he has for the past couple of seasons, even hampered by the hip issue) but also boost his power, as other players who went through this surgery said that they felt that their power returned after the surgery.  Lastly, Duggar should be much better than what Jackson and Blanco could deliver in CF, both offensively as well as defensively.

All in all, it looks likely that the Giants can repeat their 2018 first half offense , and with some good health, could exceed their paltry 4.07 RS/game (which, again, is winning baseball with the great pitching staff).  But obviously Posey, Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and whichever free agent RF (and LF?) the Giants sign, are all in the injury nexus, so we'll see how that works out. 

However, Bart really looks like he can advance as fast as Posey (Bart appears to be more advanced both offensively, defensively, and physically than Posey was), and Posey reached the majors by the next September Call Up, in the season after he was drafted.  So he could potentially push his way into the majors by sometime mid-season if he can keep up the hitting and defense, as he climbs, a la Belt, who rose quickly the following season. 

Rest of 2018 Season

Given the silver linings above, I expect the Giants to stay the course and re-set again.  Or, really, transition, like they usually do at the end of eras (like they did from 2005-2008).  Many are saying that the Giants are dead in the water, but as I outlined above, there are a lot of good things about this team that is being buried under the inept offense that the injuries have brought to the Giants in September.  I feel lucky, as I did in 2007-2012, that I'll most likely see what happens in my scenario, as it is unlikely the Giants ownership will fire Sabean and gang, which the Naysayers are clamoring for.  Whether it works out or not, is yet to be seen.

With all the injuries to the young (Duggar, Jones), as well as fatigue for some (Moronta, maybe Black, Stratton, Suarez), I would like to see the young playing, as long as they are producing enough, else they need to take a break and go work on things or to rest, as necessary.

Obviously, with their key importance in 2019, the Giants need to handle the pitching staff with kid gloves.  They have already started doing this, can't remember who and for how long, but they are giving extended rests to some bullpen arms (I believe Moronta was one, and I think Smith and Watson were also mentioned at some points).  They have also said that they will monitor their young pitchers - D-Rod and Suarez - for arm fatigue, as well, and so far, they are still going strong enough.  Holland has also been doing well, but I would give him a rest if necessary, as we have Blach on the roster, who can take a start and give the others some rest.

I would just insert Blach to a spot start at a key point, with so little games, left, so that Bumgarner and Rodriguez ends up facing the Dodgers in the final series against them.   Right now, it's Stratton, Bumgarner, D-Rod facing the Rockies, D-Rod, Suarez, Holland facing the Dodgers.  Perhaps have Blach take a spot start in place of Bumgarner for the last game against the Padres, which pushes him to the last Dodgers series, then skip Suarez (he's young, and been showing some up and down recently, which could be related to him not being physically used to pitching this late into the season), so that Bumgarner, D-Rod, and Holland faces the Dodgers.

Or if you really want to play around with the rotation, Blach could come in for a spot start in the Padres series on the road, which pushes Bumgarner into the Dodger series, then skip D-Rod (he's young, going beyond his prior season high, and thus might start to show fatigue), for Bumgarner, Blach, Holland against the Dodgers, who has trouble against lefties.

In any case, need to have Bumgarner in the Dodger's series, D-Rod if health and stamina permits (so far, so good).

Similarly with the bullpen, but more about the guys who have recent injuries in their rear mirror.  Smith and Melancon both came back this season from very bad injuries, to pitch very well.  But their stamina from missing portions of 2017 and/or the off-season preparations could mean that they could be tiring out.  I would just rest them as much as they can, but still use them, so that they build up more stamina, but not push things in their first full season back.  Also, Black falls into this category, but unclear if his recent troubles are related to fatigue or the league figuring him out.  Probably have to pitch him more than the two others, to see what he got, but also has to balance against his arm 's bad history of health.

Plus, also, Watson and Moronta both seem to have hit the wall, having some bad outings in recent appearances.  Both have been a great boon for the bullpen, and the Giants needs to preserve that for the 2019 bullpen.  Again, rest them as much, so as not to push them, but still use them some, to keep sharp.

Both Dyson and Strickland should still be used.  Possibly one or both could be traded/packaged to acquire players/prospects, since there is Black, and Okert has seemed to figure out some things as well.  Plus, there is talk about returning Shaun Anderson back to the bullpen, which he originally was, before they started him this season (Giants do that sometimes to give a reliever extra innings to work on new pitches and other things), and thus he's potentially another option in 2019.  Beede as well, he's been like Crick, very wild as they reached the upper levels of the minors, and they just moved him to the bullpen, in hopes he can harness his strengths for short stints.  Plus, next year's versions of D-Rod and Holland, as well as Blach, who has done well in short relief stints.

Apparently Shaw has been working with the MLB coaches, and his two walks with only one strikeout in his last two appearances are noteworthy; baby steps.  But even as bad as he was doing initially, after striking out 5 times in 7 plate appearances, when he hit his pinch-hit homerun, his OPS jumped to .695, which while not good, it would be among the leaders on the team in the past month or so.  Of course, he kept on striking out, but then the two walks.

I would also keep Slater mostly in the lineup, but have him move around the lineup, just like he would if he were to be a super-utility player for the Giants going forward.  Especially since Panik has been so inept against LHP and Crawford ailing with his bad knee affecting his hitting, just start Slater at 2B, Hanson at SS against LHP, and Slater in LF, Shaw in RF against RHP.   Slater needs to work with a hitting coach over the off-season and learn to hit "the modern way" (I'm still shocked by all the attention given hitting for power, especially with 538 praising the A's for it, because Ted Williams advocated for this 50 years ago with his Science of Baseball book, so this is nothing new to baseball, just new emphasis in taking such an approach), for more power.

I get that people don't want to see Gorkys or Blanco playing that much, but the young players 1) haven't earned the opportunity to start regularly (except for Duggar...) and 2) playing more is detrimental to their confidence, sometimes they need to sit on the bench and realize that they need to let the game come to them, instead of being over anxious or any other issues that young players deal with, when acclimating to the major leagues.

Given how well Garcia has done in limited opportunity, I would just give him more starts with D-Rod and Suarez, since they are familiar with each other since High School baseball (or earlier).   And pull back, as necessary, if he starts to struggle with any aspects of being a major leaguer.  Because he did not do all that well in the minors, and probably would not have gotten called up if not for Posey's surgery.  But if he's doing well, may as well give him more rope to see what he can do, just like they did with Slater in the past few weeks.  That's how you handle young unknown prospects, give them a short rope initially and give more as they do better.

Too bad Duggar, Mac Williamson, and Ryder Jones are injured and unable to get more experience this September.  Would have given us a batter look into their possibilities, particularly since Duggar was starting to get comfortable, it seemed, and was hitting better when he got injured.  Same with Mac, but much more SSS, and so long ago, hopefully he can get over his concussion and be ready for spring training.  Jones earned some playing time with his homers, and probably an extended look at in spring training, but hard to say what we got with him yet, other than a lot of power potential, but probably low BA/OBP.

In any case, I'm excited to see what happens in the rest of September.  Hopefully D-Rod, Suarez, Stratton and Holland continues to do well.  Maybe one of the hitters can break out some.  And I am okay with losing if the hitting continues to suck majorly, like it is right now, so that we can get a draft pick into the Top 10. 

Not A Homer

And that's not being a homer.  A homer sees sunshine and roses no matter what happens.  My mind works more like, "what's the danger around the corner?".   But I'm also "oh, what's that good thing around the corner?" too. 

You need to have some optimism, otherwise every season is an unending series of sad events, one after another, and I don't want to live that way.  I saw that with people on USENET, I saw that at Fanhome, I saw that at Scout, I saw that on MCC, and now I see that at TA.  Sad!

And the ego of these people, thinking that they can manage the Giants better than the pros do!  I'm acutely aware of how badly I would manage a major league team.  And I see no problem sharing opinions.  But all the crying that they are right and everyone else is either wrong or a homer, boy, I'm thinking social media is more of a curse than a blessing, sometimes.  It's one thing to have an opinion and to debate it.  It's another to think that everyone else is stupid, generally, they don't really realize that they are just voicing the fears of that little voice inside their head and applying it to everyone else. 

I've looked at all the variables that I can think about, and I think the Giants are looking good.  A homer doesn't even do that deep an analysis, probably as shallow as the Naysayers.    I doubt either could write as much as I did above, because neither would care to, they have their opinion and they aren't changing.  I don't want to be wrong, so I try to look at everything I can think of, and judge each season as to whether it's a winner, loser, or mediocre.

Love of Baseball

And I'm fine with mediocre if that is all the team is capable of.  For me, each baseball season is like my child, and I will love each one in it's own individual way.  And some are great and some not so much, but I love baseball and I don't know any better way to enjoy this great sport.    And I feel bad when others are not seeing the joy that I'm seeing.

Caring Too Much

I used to care (probably too much) that people weren't enjoying the Giants as much as I was.   That's the kind of person I am, I watch out for others, and try to share information and to be helpful.  That's great at home, that's great at work, that's great in public, when I hold doors open for strangers, and wish them a nice day. 

But I'm starting to realize I'm part of the problem too, I shouldn't care that much, and I should probably back off.  These people are harshing my vibe, and I'm realizing that I invited all of this by engaging with them.   Even the people I thought felt the same way about the Giants have started to nitpick and complain about the Giants, in the same way as the Naysayers, whether about playing the young, or whatever is bothering them at the moment.  They are sounding like the Naysayers on social media.

Whether a young player plays every game or most of the games don't really matter right now.  What matters more is the Giants giving him opportunities to show what he can do, but hold him back and give him coaching when he needs it.  And to reward those who earn a start, and not just give a starting assignment to someone just because he's younger than the other option.  Baseball is a meritocracy, and the moment a manager don't do that, the players will rebel.

Neither does the lineup matter, at this point, as the season is winding down, may as well have poor lineups, vets and all, because it will net us a better draft pick.  As long as the teams nurtures the prospects and keep them healthy by not letting them compete when they are battling an ailment, that's all I'm looking for in the next few weeks, besides, of course, Beat LA! 

2018 Wasn't All Bad, Lots of Good to Enjoy

I know this season wasn't a winner but I'm coming out of it very excited about the future.  The pitching staff in particular is looking pretty good, and it looks like we will have great defense up the middle by 2020 with Duggar and Bart (maybe Luciano and Miller can fill the middle infield?) 

Not as excited as I was coming out of 2008, when I thought that the Giants would be the Team of the 2010's Decade, but there's a lot to like about where the Giants are after the 2018 season.  And with a couple more good development from Ramos, Luciano, Fabian, Webb, Miller, Hjelle, and others, maybe the 2020's could be the Giants decade as well. 

I'm looking forward to 2019 and Beyond.  You gotta like these kids AND vets!  Can't win without either.  And I think the winning begins next season.  Go Giants!