The Giants have traded Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez to the Mets for CF Angel Pagan. Reports from Baggerly and Shea. The deal is not officially announced yet, there are physicals to do, and so it probably won't become official until later this week.
The Giants appear to be close to another deal with an AL club, possibly involving Jeff Keppinger, which makes sense since his value is really as a hitter, not a defensive fielder.
Giants Thoughts
First off, thank you to Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez for their roles in helping us win our 2010 World Championship.
That said, Torres wasn't much use to us last season after May, he was pretty messed up because of he needed an adjustment of his medicine and they couldn't apparently get it right. Meanwhile, Ramirez was of pretty good use to us, and is the value in this trade from the Mets perspective, because Pagan had a down year as well.
Thinking of this from a statistical standpoint, each team traded one type of risk for another, in order to lessen the risk of another kind. Basically the standard deviation of what one can expect offensively is better for Pagan, I think, while for defense, Torres is better.
The Mets wanted a better defensive player, which Torres is, much better than Pagan, who was -1 Defensive Runs Saved in 2011 (Torres was +4 overall, +3 in CF in about 30% less innings than Pagan), plus there is the potential that Torres might return to his 2010 form, getting them a double boost, as then he would be a similar offensive player as Pagan plus provides good defense. Plus they add a great reliever to boot. Risk but reward too.
The Giants did not get that great a defensive player (but I think their defensive schemes that they do apparently help players at least a bit as Burrell somehow was a valuable defensive LF for the Giants in 2010) in Pagan, and offensively he is not as good as Torres was in 2010, but he is more likely to be a better hitter, having a better history plus his one down year, last year, was plagued by injuries from beginning to end, starting with oblique problems in the first month of the season, to back spasms mid-season, to a head injury that kept him out at the end of the season. Plus he is two years younger than Torres. And he is also a switch-hitter like Torres, and hits better against RHP and only OK against LHP.
Looks like they got another mix and match player in Pagan, who has played a lot of games at all three OF positions, and is especially valuable batting against RHP, and is about average defensively in CF (at least he was in 2011, and he was injured during parts of the season). They save money in the deal, it is believed, plus can expect a certain level of offense from Pagan, whereas Torres, who knows when he'll be OK with his ADHD medicine dosage.
Pagan's main problem in 2011 appears to be two fold. First his BABIP fell 50 points from the prior 3 seasons and was 30 points below his career average. Second was his drop in ISO, about 30 points below average. Together that took about 60-90 points off his OPS, which would have put him in the mid-to-high 700 OPS range. Presuming that it was the injuries that caused a lot of that, plus I read a note somewhere that he's working hard on his conditioning during this off-season because he don't want a repeat of 2011, he looks like a good bet to rebound, especially since his contact rate is pretty good and his walk rate is OK, suggesting that 2011 was just a case of the BABIP ball bouncing into mitts more often than usual for Pagan.
It certainly solidifies our OF, now Bochy can mix and match Melky and Angel in CF, plus they will probably see time in the corner sometimes too, depending on who is hot or not, giving us insurance if Schierholtz does not perform as hoped in RF or if Belt or Huff does not perform as hoped in LF. Speaking of Belt, this still keeps the door open for him to take LF or 1B starting if he comes out blazing, as then Melky, Angel, and Nate would probably be mixing and matching CF and RF, plus Belt will probably sit some games against LHP anyway, both to avoid since he has not figured them out plus to get other guys into games too.
This is a good move offensively, plus opens a spot in the bullpen to either acquire someone, as perhaps the Giants see another reclamation project out there (oh, this opens up a 40 man spot), like they did Santiago Casilla a couple of years ago, or maybe there is some prospects they want to look at in spring, not sure how guys did in AFL, or even one of the other winter leagues. And there is the savings of probably $1-2M, and getting a younger player to boot. All in all a nice move, which becomes great if Pagan is like he was in 2009-2010, and given that he's healthy and getting himself into shape, that's a good bet.
Showing posts with label Ramon Ramirez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ramon Ramirez. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
2011 Arbitration Day: Signings and Other Thoughts
There have been various tweets announcing the Giants signings today to avoid arbitration:
Giants Thoughts
Ross got around what I thought he would, based on most commentary I saw when Giants picked him up. Most noted that Ross would earn $6M in arbitration and if you tack on salary inflation, that is roughly what he got. That also fit into arbitration theory, which states that Y1 arbs get 40% of value, Y2 arbs get 60%, and Y3 arbs get 80%, and he roughly got the same value as in 2010 with bump up from 60% to 80% plus some salary inflation.
Sanchez got less than I thought. With his good 2010, I thought that might tilt his salary higher, into at least $6-8M range, based on a $10-12M value range for what he can do. He still got a great raise (he made $2.1M last season) though.
Hopefully this is just to get him signed and avoid arbitration, and now they can build this into a multi-year deal going into his free agent season(s). But I would guess that Dirty's agent will not want to settle for what he got now, he would rather have Sanchez have another great season similar to 2010 (low 3's ERA in particular) and get a really big raise in Y3 arbs plus maybe into free agent years.
I'm hoping the Giants at least broach the subject with Sanchez and be willing to push the money higher to get a multi-year signed. I think he should be able to repeat a similar season, and if we got him signed for, say, another year plus option after the 2011 season, we should be able to trade him for a big package of prospects similar to the A's Haren deal, maybe with Royals or Pirates, they both have a lot of young and good prospects.
Ramirez got what arb theory suggests from Y2 to Y3, I think, roughly 43% raise, with 33.3% from move from Y2 to Y3 and salary inflation covering the rest.
Remaining Arbitration Cases
Three more down, only three more to go. Hank Schulman tweets AP report on arb bids/offers:
For Lopez, his side is basically asking for the same base value as he got in 2009 (but with higher Y3 multiplier), while the Giants are pricing in the risk that 2009's performance puts into the equation. At $2M, the Giants are already giving him a 50% raise, which is pretty good. I think they will also meet in the middle, as well, maybe $2.5M.
Not sure what Santiago Casilla's problem is other than the old fashion difference in opinion on what he is worth. He probably wants a salary like a proven set-up reliever who is now in arb, while the Giants has more of a wait and see attitude given that was his first season of good performance, and not even a full season. He probably got the league minimum or so in 2010, slightly more than $400K, and the Giants more than doubled it in their offer. Hopefully they can split the difference, but my guess is that the Giants are going to hold to their guns if Casilla's side is sticking close to that request of $1.6M. I expect another meet in the middle at $1.35M.
But as I noted, the Giants in the Sabean era has avoided arbitration with all but AJ, so I expect signings to happen before the cases get put in front of arbitration. As was reported (by Hank Schulman I believe), the Giants are focusing on one year deals with everyone. That makes sense for both sides, particularly the players in these cases, as they hope that their players can perform well again and get a bigger raise next season, particularly for those going free agents.
As I noted above, I hope the Giants can sign Sanchez to a multi-year deal, which would set up a Haren-type bidding for Sanchez's services after the 2011 season. A big stash of young, good prospects right around there would be a perfect time for an injection of talent into the farm system given that the Giants hope to be pennant contenders for the near future and thus would not be getting good draft picks in terms of probability of getting a good player. Those players would then be maturing in the 2013-2016 timeframe, when we start losing guys to free agency, particularly Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez (I expect Cain to stick around for most of his career).
Assuming they sign for roughly mid-point as I speculated above, that would be 19 players totalling $114.8M in payroll. Add 6 more roster spots at $450M average, that is a total payroll of $117.5M (or $115.9M if Rowand's salary only counts for $12M in 2011; dispute over how bonuses are allocated, I would lean towards $115.9M). That is roughly $15-20M more than the payroll in 2010. The money the team made in the playoffs probably counts for $10-15M of that increase, so the Giants, on relative terms, isn't raising their payroll that drastically, and probably could handle another $5-10M if there was a player worth getting in that range and a roster spot. At this point, I would rather they stick with what we got and save it for the future, when we hopefully sign Lincecum, Cain, and other young players to long-term deals.
- Cody Ross: $6.3M (last year of arb)
- Jonathan Sanchez: $4.8M (second year)
- Ramon Ramirez: $1.65M (last year)
Giants Thoughts
Ross got around what I thought he would, based on most commentary I saw when Giants picked him up. Most noted that Ross would earn $6M in arbitration and if you tack on salary inflation, that is roughly what he got. That also fit into arbitration theory, which states that Y1 arbs get 40% of value, Y2 arbs get 60%, and Y3 arbs get 80%, and he roughly got the same value as in 2010 with bump up from 60% to 80% plus some salary inflation.
Sanchez got less than I thought. With his good 2010, I thought that might tilt his salary higher, into at least $6-8M range, based on a $10-12M value range for what he can do. He still got a great raise (he made $2.1M last season) though.
Hopefully this is just to get him signed and avoid arbitration, and now they can build this into a multi-year deal going into his free agent season(s). But I would guess that Dirty's agent will not want to settle for what he got now, he would rather have Sanchez have another great season similar to 2010 (low 3's ERA in particular) and get a really big raise in Y3 arbs plus maybe into free agent years.
I'm hoping the Giants at least broach the subject with Sanchez and be willing to push the money higher to get a multi-year signed. I think he should be able to repeat a similar season, and if we got him signed for, say, another year plus option after the 2011 season, we should be able to trade him for a big package of prospects similar to the A's Haren deal, maybe with Royals or Pirates, they both have a lot of young and good prospects.
Ramirez got what arb theory suggests from Y2 to Y3, I think, roughly 43% raise, with 33.3% from move from Y2 to Y3 and salary inflation covering the rest.
Remaining Arbitration Cases
Three more down, only three more to go. Hank Schulman tweets AP report on arb bids/offers:
- Andres Torres: $1.8M/$2.6M
- Javier Lopez: $2.0M/$2.875M
- Santiago Casilla: $1.0M/$1.65M
For Lopez, his side is basically asking for the same base value as he got in 2009 (but with higher Y3 multiplier), while the Giants are pricing in the risk that 2009's performance puts into the equation. At $2M, the Giants are already giving him a 50% raise, which is pretty good. I think they will also meet in the middle, as well, maybe $2.5M.
Not sure what Santiago Casilla's problem is other than the old fashion difference in opinion on what he is worth. He probably wants a salary like a proven set-up reliever who is now in arb, while the Giants has more of a wait and see attitude given that was his first season of good performance, and not even a full season. He probably got the league minimum or so in 2010, slightly more than $400K, and the Giants more than doubled it in their offer. Hopefully they can split the difference, but my guess is that the Giants are going to hold to their guns if Casilla's side is sticking close to that request of $1.6M. I expect another meet in the middle at $1.35M.
But as I noted, the Giants in the Sabean era has avoided arbitration with all but AJ, so I expect signings to happen before the cases get put in front of arbitration. As was reported (by Hank Schulman I believe), the Giants are focusing on one year deals with everyone. That makes sense for both sides, particularly the players in these cases, as they hope that their players can perform well again and get a bigger raise next season, particularly for those going free agents.
As I noted above, I hope the Giants can sign Sanchez to a multi-year deal, which would set up a Haren-type bidding for Sanchez's services after the 2011 season. A big stash of young, good prospects right around there would be a perfect time for an injection of talent into the farm system given that the Giants hope to be pennant contenders for the near future and thus would not be getting good draft picks in terms of probability of getting a good player. Those players would then be maturing in the 2013-2016 timeframe, when we start losing guys to free agency, particularly Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez (I expect Cain to stick around for most of his career).
Assuming they sign for roughly mid-point as I speculated above, that would be 19 players totalling $114.8M in payroll. Add 6 more roster spots at $450M average, that is a total payroll of $117.5M (or $115.9M if Rowand's salary only counts for $12M in 2011; dispute over how bonuses are allocated, I would lean towards $115.9M). That is roughly $15-20M more than the payroll in 2010. The money the team made in the playoffs probably counts for $10-15M of that increase, so the Giants, on relative terms, isn't raising their payroll that drastically, and probably could handle another $5-10M if there was a player worth getting in that range and a roster spot. At this point, I would rather they stick with what we got and save it for the future, when we hopefully sign Lincecum, Cain, and other young players to long-term deals.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
2011 Arbitration Cases and Non-Tenders
The Giants decision on arbitrations tenders were released (Hank Schulman and Carl Steward).
As many expected, the Giants tendered outfielders Cody Ross and Andres Torres, starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and relief pitchers Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez. The Giants usually come to an agreement with almost every player that are arbitration eligible, so this is just a formality for that process to hold their rights on the players. The only ones that I can remember going to arbitration was A.J. Pierzitski and, of course, they almost went to it with Tim Lincecum last off-season.
The Giants also announced that they signed Mike Fontenot to a one year contract. Schulman reported that it was for slightly over $1M; I think that is about what he got last season, I thought he might get as high as $1.5M, but maybe he wants to stay. Sabean noted that he would be getting some looks at SS and be a backup there as well as 2B.
Oddly enough, they also announced that Eugenio Velez was also non-tendered. He was not arbitration eligible, according to the report, but apparently the Giants wanted the spot on the 40-man for other purposes. Shulman noted a number of factors in this decision: his 40-man spot, that he's out of options and not expected to make the team, even the raise he'd be due by rule if he cleared waivers and was sent to Fresno.
Schulman also reported that Ray and Velez might be re-signed to minor league deals. I don't really see that happening. Velez can see how crowded the OF and 2B is on the Giants (particularly once Belt pushes Huff to LF), and as much as he might want to stay, his agent should be advising him to look elsewhere. Ray could like it enough to stay, but he's a former closer and he wasn't that bad last season, so I think there would be other teams interested in him. Perhaps he and the Giants have a handshake deal to do this to open a spot to enable the Giants to add another free agent, as desired, with the understanding that they will work it out for him to be on 25-man to start 2011 season. A signal for this would be a split contract with a minor league salary and a major league salary if he makes the team. We'll see.
As many expected, the Giants tendered outfielders Cody Ross and Andres Torres, starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and relief pitchers Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez. The Giants usually come to an agreement with almost every player that are arbitration eligible, so this is just a formality for that process to hold their rights on the players. The only ones that I can remember going to arbitration was A.J. Pierzitski and, of course, they almost went to it with Tim Lincecum last off-season.
The Giants also announced that they signed Mike Fontenot to a one year contract. Schulman reported that it was for slightly over $1M; I think that is about what he got last season, I thought he might get as high as $1.5M, but maybe he wants to stay. Sabean noted that he would be getting some looks at SS and be a backup there as well as 2B.
Oddly enough, they also announced that Eugenio Velez was also non-tendered. He was not arbitration eligible, according to the report, but apparently the Giants wanted the spot on the 40-man for other purposes. Shulman noted a number of factors in this decision: his 40-man spot, that he's out of options and not expected to make the team, even the raise he'd be due by rule if he cleared waivers and was sent to Fresno.
Schulman also reported that Ray and Velez might be re-signed to minor league deals. I don't really see that happening. Velez can see how crowded the OF and 2B is on the Giants (particularly once Belt pushes Huff to LF), and as much as he might want to stay, his agent should be advising him to look elsewhere. Ray could like it enough to stay, but he's a former closer and he wasn't that bad last season, so I think there would be other teams interested in him. Perhaps he and the Giants have a handshake deal to do this to open a spot to enable the Giants to add another free agent, as desired, with the understanding that they will work it out for him to be on 25-man to start 2011 season. A signal for this would be a split contract with a minor league salary and a major league salary if he makes the team. We'll see.
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