tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00obsessivegiantscompulsiveobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger8425125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-34257151453568891542024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:002024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00TK noted the Orioles, so I analyzed their recent p...TK noted the Orioles, so I analyzed their recent past and how that compares with the Giants and the complaints of some fans:<br /><br />Baltimore Orioles<br /><br />The other Orange and Black team (or is it Black and Orange?) had a wonderful five year period from 2017-2021, where they lost so many games at such a high rate that they were an average 58-104 team over that 5 year period, losing 115 games in one season (meaning they only won 47 games).<br /><br />With their great draft position, they got Grayson Rodriguez #11 pick of 2018, took him 5 years to reach the majors in 2024, was okay, something to build on year, much like Kyle Henderson, who was selected in 2020 draft (3rdR), had in 2024. Even better draft position in 2019, #1 pick Adley Rutschman, took him 3 years to reach the majors and do well, and #42 pick Gunnar Henderson, took him 3 years to reach the majors, got a September call up, then he had a breakout year in 2023, his 4th year after being drafted.<br /><br />So the Orioles returned to .500 land in 2022, the blasted off in 2023, basically on the back of their 2019 draft (4 years later), but including help from their 2015 Draft in Ryan Mountcastle (took 6 years after draft to have a great season), Anthony Santander (rule 5 draft from Indians in 2016, he did become regular in majors until 2022, six years later, having ups and downs and partial seasons), Kyle Bradish (got in trade with Dodgers in 2019, drafted in 2018, didn't become valuable starter until 2023, 5 years after he was drafted), and Felix Bautista (signed as free agent in 2016, after he was released by the Royals, who signed him in 2012, and he had his first good MLB season in 2022, 6 years after O's signed him, 10 years after he was originally signed as IFA).<br /><br />See the pattern here? These players who were significant contributors to the O's great 2023 season were drafted or acquired 5-6 years before they became MLB regulars. Which is what I've been saying, most prospects take 4-6 years to develop into MLB regulars. Only Rutschmann was good enough to become good in the majors 3 years after being drafted. And to get him, the had to lose 115 games!<br /><br />Gaining good talent isn't painless, you all got to see the grass being greener now, ignoring 5 years of extreme losing (FYI, none of their prospects drafted from 2020-2023 has done anything close to what Bailey or Harrison has done so far, both drafted in 2020) or that it takes prospects many more years to reach the majors and produce well than people think.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-14551459546648618852024-01-31T11:36:29.363-08:002024-01-31T11:36:29.363-08:00Apprreciate you blogging thisApprreciate you blogging thisBoxed Wine Fiascohttps://boxedwinefiasco.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-37171414679820521482024-01-04T21:47:56.218-08:002024-01-04T21:47:56.218-08:00I should have also added that in basically all com...I should have also added that in basically all comments along this vein, there are many people who think the Giants have no stars.<br /><br />Yet, this offseason, Logan Webb came in second in the Cy Young voting, as well as Patrick Bailey missing out on a Gold Glove for catching. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-19221602583704863852023-11-14T09:09:54.673-08:002023-11-14T09:09:54.673-08:00Forgot to note a particular oddity: he went with t...Forgot to note a particular oddity: he went with the unknown Josh Sborz, to close out Game 7, not even going to the closer, since they got the cushion in the 9th. <br /> Most managers would just routinely go with their closer, but Sborz was doing well, and had done well during the playoffs, so he didn't change relievers.<br /><br />He is a different thinker. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-71533043667578489282023-11-02T22:43:02.952-07:002023-11-02T22:43:02.952-07:00Congrats to the World Series Champion Texas Ranger...Congrats to the World Series Champion Texas Rangers!<br /><br />I was rooting for them, both because Bochy is their manager, and mainly because I felt that we owed them that because we beat them in 2010.<br /><br />Obviously, I was wrong in the final analysis, though it did turn out the way I envisioned it for Arizona, that Gallen would have a good start for them. Eovaldi, however, got over his jitters and delivered a start much like he had been for the Rangers before. <br /><br />And much like the other World Series games, the Arizona starter gave them a good start, but their bullpen ultimately costed them. And that's where Bochy's genius in his managerial career has been, in managing his bullpen, and presumably working with his FO to get the relievers he needed.<br /><br />He got two ex-Giants, Will Smith and Chris Stratton, as relievers. Good to see Stratton doing well, I really liked him when he was on the Giants, and why they didn't try him in the bullpen more, which seems to have unlocked him, at least this season, I don't know. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-8785004372026512882023-10-15T00:42:35.983-07:002023-10-15T00:42:35.983-07:00Hello nice bloggHello nice bloggHey Ho Cloudyhttps://heyhocloudy.tumblr.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-80624698289592762162023-09-22T13:41:03.017-07:002023-09-22T13:41:03.017-07:00His start was a good one. 5.1 IP (limited to 75 p...His start was a good one. 5.1 IP (limited to 75 pitches because he was sick with something), only 3 hits, 1 HR (more importantly), 2 strikeouts (not as good), 1 walk (still good).<br /><br />Game score was 55, which is good. PQS was 3, which is okay.<br /><br />As nondescript as this start was, he went up 0.2 bWAR with the start. If he has 30 starts like this, that's roughly 4.5 to 7.5 bWAR (assuming range of 0.15 bWAR to 0.25 bWAR for the start).<br /><br />What people don't really realize about WAR is how much is contributed by the pitchers vs. the position players. <br /><br />In 2022, Rodon and Webb averaged 0.17 and 0.15 bWAR per start (roughly 5.0 bWAR, which was roughly what Harrison produced in this start). Lincecum in his Cy Young years, about 0.25 bWAR, gives a good range between good and great pitching from a Giants history perspective. <br /><br />In 2001-2, Bonds averaged roughly 0.08 bWAR, and that's close to the best all time, if not the best (close enough, not going to research). However, most of the rest of the line up is roughly 1.5-2.0 bWAR, average, if not less for the bottom of the order. That works out to 0.01 bWAR per game. So Bonds plus 7 average hitters work out to 0.15 bWAR, which is roughly what our good starting pitchers, like Rodon and Webb, did last season.<br /><br />Now look at a regular lineup. If there's 4 good hitters (say, 3.24 bWAR each = 0.02 bWAR per game), plus two average (0.01 bWAR) and two replacement level (0.00 bWAR), that adds up to 0.10 bWAR per game, which is less contribution, on average, than a good pitcher. <br /><br />And as we see in baseball, the variance for lineups is huge, 0 to 10, but for the better to good pitchers, they have a consistent generation of quality starts (as seen in my studies of PQS over the years), and that leads to more influence on each game, as well as less variance, game to game. <br /><br />This demonstrates how much influence a pitcher actually has on any start, a much more outsized influence, the best are double and triple the influence Bonds had, and 5-10 times the influence that regular players have. And when the pitcher is one of the good pitchers, their quality starts are much more regular contributors to winning than the home runs for most hitters. <br /><br />Girls (and fans) dig the long ball, but it's pitching that yields the wins and championships.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-31480163256674761502023-09-19T22:05:27.153-07:002023-09-19T22:05:27.153-07:00Alas, Harrison ran into more problems than hoped, ...Alas, Harrison ran into more problems than hoped, much like Lincecum did in his first MLB season.<br /><br />Still, there are good things to note. First, his K-rate was a sterling 10.7 K/9, which is elite for any pitcher of any age or experience. He only limited his walk rate to 3.0 BB/9, which is probably the best one can hope for when he has been so wild before. In any case, 3.0 is still a pretty good rate for most pitchers, and together, that's 3.63 K/BB ratio, which is very good.<br /><br />A better way to view these stats are by percentage of Plate Appearance. His K% is 27.1%, which is significantly better than the league average of 22.7%. His BB% is 7.5%, which is much better than the league average of 8.6%. That leads to a K%-BB% of 19.6% vs. the league average of 14.1%.<br /><br />Unfortunately, he just gave up way too many homeruns. That's a sign of his aggressiveness in attacking hitters, and a sign of his great confidence in getting hitters, even the best ones, out. And that leads to too many pitches being put into the hitter's sweet spot of the zone where they can hammer it out of the park.<br /><br />The rate he allowed was roughly double what most pitchers give up, so i'm confident that he can reduce that closer to the league mean, but how much is the bigger question. <br /><br />But given his performances in the minors, ZIPS still project him to be in the low to mid-3 ERA over the next couple of years, as he has figured out his problems pretty fast in the minors. In addition, his SIERA is 3.90 and his FIP+ is 4.10, both good numbers for a rookie, and also an indiction of how well he pitched this season in the majors, assuming he gets the homers down to league norms. Thus I feel good that he's eventually fix this homeritis problem.<br /><br />Based on the Pitch Values on Fangraphs, it looks like his major problem pitch is his curveball, which was the largest negative value out of all his pitches. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-harrison/27758/stats?position=P#pitch-info-pitch-values<br /><br />But based on per pitch value, his cutter is even worse. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-harrison/27758/stats?position=P#pitch-info-pitch-values-100<br /><br />And cutting his HR rate would drop his WHIP to a more reasonable 1.25 or so. <br /><br />People are upset, but rookies will have ups and downs. Overall, Harrison looks every bit the dominant pitcher he was in the minors. The key is figuring out how he can be consistently like he was in his brilliant second start.<br /><br />obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-16718730158681046652023-08-28T21:38:57.176-07:002023-08-28T21:38:57.176-07:00Given what I noted above, it was not surprising th...Given what I noted above, it was not surprising that Harrison was allowed to go to 91 pitches in the start today, going 6.1 IP for his first MLB win. Gave up only 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 11 (out of 24 hitters), and gave up no runs. A 5-PQS quality start, and he kept up his 5+ K/BB ratio.<br /><br />Also, he struck out the side again in the first inning. And struck out the first five batters before a pop fly out. <br /><br />Looks like we got most of our rotation for the rest of the season. With 31 games left, Harrison and Beck should each get another 6 starts, with a 5-man rotation going. (ignore my starts info above, I must have been looking at a team record that wasn't updated with the latest W/L, my deepest apologies; I'm certain 31 games is the correct number now, in any case, with less games, less IP will happen, even if Harrison is throwing 7+ IP in the remaining starts, so he'll be available for the team to use if they make the playoffs, and possibly could be slotted behind Webb in the playoff rotation order, if he continues to pitch like he did tonight).obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-35038922617238987152023-08-28T21:26:01.858-07:002023-08-28T21:26:01.858-07:00I would also add that Beck has been similarly brou...I would also add that Beck has been similarly brought slowly along because his seasonal high IP was 111.1 IP last season. He's now at 90.2 IP, which means he can probably go another 35-40 IP to get around the +25 IP seasonal increases prescribed by ol' Doc Mike Krukow.<br /><br />He's been saying this forever on broadcasts, not that the Sabean era Giants listened, as Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner, among others, were jumped many more innings than that. But to be fair to Krukow, none of them stayed dominant into their 30's, which could be related to them increasing so much.<br /><br />Beck, since he's now 27 and went to college, was used in the 70-100 pitch count range all last year, and was used similarly early this season, but has been used mostly a featured reliever while in the majors, this season. In fact, his longest outing was his 81 pitch first MLB outing this season. <br /><br />I think if he didn't suddenly couldn't get anyone out in the fifth inning yesterday, he likely would have made it to 5 IP, and more than the 70 pitches he had last night. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-79718772067494003722023-08-28T09:57:38.107-07:002023-08-28T09:57:38.107-07:00Looking over his pitching line further, clearly he...Looking over his pitching line further, clearly he can't give up so many hits. As noted above, BABIIP reversion to the mean would bring it down to 3, but I should note that this is if he's a MLB caliber pitcher, a saber who joined a FO noted in an interview that BABIP control is a skill (which is one reason I disagree with saber orthodox that BABIP control is a not a skill, that there are pitchers, like Zito and Cain, who can maintain a lower BABIP than the league mean, as well as pitchers who can't control) that MLB pitchers have that those in the minors don't.<br /><br />A poor part of his outing, the 5 hits, is further accented by the 56% Line Drive rate. Per Baseball Forecaster, pitchers have minimal control over that rate, and the average is around 23%, which should reduce the number of hits by half or so, which aligns with the BABIP regression to the mean. So another sign that he should be better in future starts.<br /><br />But the best sign is that he continued to strike out so many batters, even though he's now facing MLB hitters, while controlling his walks. I would not expect him to only have one walk per five strikeouts, but his pitches seem to be lethal to hitters all through the minors and they continue to be so up in the majors. He had 66% strikes thrown, which is a good but not elite percentage, and his strikes looking and strikes swinging are good (15% and 20% respectively) but not elite (that I recall), so his pitch sequencing must be the elite part, and that's something that will last through his career, unlike velocity.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-59331343978545428932023-08-23T09:38:19.727-07:002023-08-23T09:38:19.727-07:00A comment I left on TA:
It is not just the 5 K’s...A comment I left on TA: <br /><br />It is not just the 5 K’s in 16 batters, which is a very high 30% strikeout rate, it is also his 5x k/w ratio as well as his sterling numbers all through the minors, and his great improvement in starts from the start of the season to the promotion to the majors.<br /><br />I don’t have as much experience as you (only 50 years), but I have studied pitching sabermetrics, and those are numbers a pitcher can be very successful with. And the five hits, the rule is that BABIP regresses to the league mean of .300, and as that’s 5 hits out of 9 balls on play, .555 BABIP, dropping that to .300 means 3 hits. <br /><br />Lastly, I would add that even Lincecum had a tough first start, the nerves would get to him initially, but then he would settle down eventually. Harrison settled down after the first. <br /><br />Of course, both Cain and Lincecum took a full season to figure out how to be consistently good. So Harrison might need a lot more time to figure things out. However, given that he struck out so many in the minors, and continues to steamroller hitters in the majors, I think he’s capable of figuring it out with his ten or so starts this season, and at least be above average next season, then becomes the ace his minor league stats suggests. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-67463136510621442142023-08-23T09:37:26.171-07:002023-08-23T09:37:26.171-07:00About the pitch count, most of what I've seen ...About the pitch count, most of what I've seen is nonsense.<br /><br />First off, the Giants last year starting Harrison low and built up his pitch count to the 80-100 range, reaching 100 a few times in the second half of the season.<br /><br />This season, he was already up to 80 pitches when he got injured. They would have easily gotten him up to 80-100 at some point.<br /><br />But because he was injured, they had to ratchet him up again. About 40 his first two starts back, then 60 in his last MiLB start. <br /><br />Thus, the 65 pitches he did in last night's start was reasonable. They probably would have allowed him to go another batter had he not given up a hit, that's usually a sign to take the pitcher out.<br /><br />So I have no doubt that he will be stretched out further and be in the 80-100 pitches range, as long as he's doing well, shorter if not. <br /><br />With roughly 50 games left, that means 10 turns of the rotation, so Harrison should get at least 10 starts, or roughly 40-45 IP. He was at 67 IP, so roughly 107-112 IP total for this season. He reached 113 IP last season.<br /><br />Using the Krukow 25 IP increases rule of thumb for more safely developing and stretching a pitcher's usage, Harrison would have 26-31 more IP he could do after the season.<br /><br />If they make the playoffs, he'll be able to continue to pitch for us. And if now, he'll likely be placed on the AFL squad to pick up IP and increase his usage to 135 plus, so that he can be stretched out to 160 IP plus next season, which should be first first full season. <br /><br />And that's the benefit of Zaidi's plan of starting pitchers on a low pitch count and then increasing as the season goes on, it allows the Giants the option of utilizing Harrison in the push for the playoffs, instead of having to shut him down, as well as being able to use him in the playoffs, unlike Strasberg, who had to be shut down.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-18574080019306656182023-08-22T22:08:52.736-07:002023-08-22T22:08:52.736-07:00About Harrison's inning usage, people are very...About Harrison's inning usage, people are very upset about his lack of IP, and about being a featured pitcher.<br /><br />First off, Zaidi has made it very clear that Kyle is starting. They understand starting, and that's why all those pitchers aren't starting, they were not able to get the top of the order out easily, so they had to go with the opener in order to get more effective performances out of them.<br /><br />It took me until now to understand the benefits of the Opener. The idea of the Opener is that ideally you have a pitcher as the opener who can get out the top of the lineup. Generally, it is a platoon based strategy, where the Opener is more effective getting out the top of the lineup, and then turning it over to the Feature pitcher.<br /><br />The Feature pitcher, generally, is either a failed starter, unable to get through the lineup more than two times, or a prospect they are giving bulk innings to. The idea is that the Feature pitcher starts pitching to the bottom of the lineup, so that when he gets through the lineup twice, which is the normal time pitchers seem to lose their ability to fool the top hitters, instead, they are now facing the bottom of the lineup, which they should be more able to take care of, enabling them to pitch to another 3-5 batters, whoever is at the bottom, and if they happen to be doing well, could even attempt the top of the order.<br /><br />Thus, these pitchers who would only get through the lineup twice, if they have a good game, they might be able to extend to another 3-5 batters, as they would be facing the bottom of the lineup. This is a crutch for the failed starters like Wood and Manaea, and an opportunity to show what they can do, for the prospects.<br /><br />Zaidi understands the benefits of having starters, that's why he signed so many and had 7 to start the season, but injury and or poor performances have reduced them to two starters until Harrison became #3.<br /><br />Also, I'm wondering if they are continuing to use the failed starters only as featured pitchers in order to irritate them enough that they don't exercise their player options for a contract next season. We'll see what happens.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-51373532318987222432023-08-20T17:38:37.475-07:002023-08-20T17:38:37.475-07:00This is a great post, thanks for writing itThis is a great post, thanks for writing itDispatches From The Edgehttps://dispatchesfromtheedgeblod.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-38988981829065836842023-06-05T18:06:39.108-07:002023-06-05T18:06:39.108-07:00Greeat readGreeat readSweet Tart Recipeshttps://www.maketarts.com/sweet-tarts/apricot_and_berry_tart_5518046550.shtmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-38471938690678220412022-08-04T13:06:24.517-07:002022-08-04T13:06:24.517-07:00Nice post thaanks for sharingNice post thaanks for sharingBed Bug Exterminator Marysvillehttps://www.bed-bug-exterminators.com/us/bed-bug-treatment-washington/bed-bug-exterminator-marysville.shtmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-31171957002999494232021-12-01T08:46:28.973-08:002021-12-01T08:46:28.973-08:00Lovedd reading this thanksLovedd reading this thanksOwenhttps://www.owencarpenter.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-2665783135505307292021-11-03T14:04:09.251-07:002021-11-03T14:04:09.251-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.AAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05359509409187403243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-45939582369789926242021-09-21T23:57:12.840-07:002021-09-21T23:57:12.840-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.shahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14904783742071131215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-75773738055432927392021-07-18T09:26:39.679-07:002021-07-18T09:26:39.679-07:00Thank you for your excellent post. Thank you for your excellent post. nomisnalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10826237728845320916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-23494858673211427592021-03-03T16:31:19.804-08:002021-03-03T16:31:19.804-08:00In the past before the 2020 season, Bumgarner'...In the past before the 2020 season, Bumgarner's big issue at times would be his mechanics. When off his fastball could drop almost 5 MPH, and his slider would become less effective. Usually in short order the Giants working with him, would end up fixing his mechanics in short order and he would return to excellent form. But I cannot be sure what the issue was in the shortened season. He just did not seem able to sustain his previous order of success. The Dbacks are optimistic that he will find his mechanics and return to his former excellence. We will have to wait and see. nomisnalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08297640472949764321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-54733480443871279712020-10-09T11:03:15.763-07:002020-10-09T11:03:15.763-07:00Baragar had a nice first season, 4.03 ERA, 4.04 FI...Baragar had a nice first season, 4.03 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 107 ERA+ (above average ERA), 7.7 K/9 and stellar 2.0 BB/9 for a stellar 3.80 K/BB ratio.<br /><br />Even better, after a very shaky welcome to the majors, 11.25 ERA in first 8 appearances, he/they figured out what the problem was, and in his last 16 appearances, 14.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 K/9, 3.50 K/BB, .422 OPS, though .194 BABIP would be impossible to repeat, but that's why his FIP is at 2.29, to account for that, which would still be a stellar performance.<br /><br />Hopefully he gets a chance at starting sometime. He looks like he can be at least a steady middle rotation guy for a few years, like Dirty was, then shift into loogy mode once he's not effective as a starter anymore.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-36235052467157683892020-10-09T11:02:54.927-07:002020-10-09T11:02:54.927-07:00Baragar had a nice first season, 4.03 ERA, 4.04 FI...Baragar had a nice first season, 4.03 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 107 ERA+ (above average ERA), 7.7 K/9 and stellar 2.0 BB/9 for a stellar 3.80 K/BB ratio. <br /><br />Even better, after a very shaky welcome to the majors, 11.25 ERA in first 8 appearances, he/they figured out what the problem was, and in his last 16 appearances, 14.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 K/9, 3.50 K/BB, .422 OPS, though .194 BABIP would be impossible to repeat, but that's why his FIP is at 2.29, to account for that, which would still be a stellar performance. <br /><br />Hopefully he gets a chance at starting sometime. He looks like he can be at least a steady middle rotation guy for a few years, like Dirty was, then shift into loogy mode once he's not effective as a starter anymore.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-63496230878807345052020-09-27T15:50:04.823-07:002020-09-27T15:50:04.823-07:00I think he screwed himself up.
He was always a h...I think he screwed himself up. <br /><br />He was always a head case, and this is a good example of it: he made the WBC in Spring 2009, and in honor of his idol/hero, Johan Santana, he copied Johan's pitching mechanics.<br /><br />The major problem there is that he's using mechanics that works for Johan, not for his body, and he refused to acknowledge that was a problem until the Giants took him out of the rotation in mid-2009, made a couple of relief appearances to get back into his old mechanics, then he had his no-hitter.<br /><br />ERA with Johan mechanics: 5.54, 15% PQS<br />ERA after taken out of rotation: 3.35, 63% PQS<br />ERA in the following season (2010): 3.07<br /><br />The Giants were 3-10 in the games that he started while doing the Johan. Using Pythagorean, and working backward to expected RA (3.10), then using Pythag with his ERA after (3.35), that would have been a 6-7 record instead. That would have put the Giants at 91 wins, just a game away from tying Colorado for the playoffs. <br /><br />Plus, one could argue that he tired out the last month or so, where he had 5 non-dominant starts. In the 11 starts after he fixed his mechanics, he had a 2.75 ERA/2.88 RA over those starts, which was very close to his 3.07 ERA in 2010.<br /><br />Assuming the 2.88 RA instead for the 13 starts, that pushes the Giants to 7-6 instead, which then puts them at 92 wins and tied with Colorado at 92 wins, forcing a WC playoff game, which likely would have been Lincecum starting, or at worse Brad Penny, who had a CG shutout in his last start of the season. <br /><br />So given that, I would not be surprised if he decided to do something on his own and screwed up his mechanics again. And it should also be noted that even when he was doing well, he was still totally wild, unlike the Big Unit, he could never corral his wildness, with walk rates of mid-4 and higher (per 9IP). So it is not to surprising that his shelf life was not that long, wild pitchers are like that.<br /><br />And basically, most pitchers don't have long shelf life, that's why they came up with TINSTAAPP, the ones who can pitch a long time are the anomalies. <br /><br />And one could see that with the Giants pitchers. Cainer had elbow problems at 18 YO that shelved him, and dropped his prospect status below a pitcher who was drafted after him. And it wasn't very clear until later that these bone chip problems was giving him issues for the rest of his career. I would lay the blame on whoever made the decision to give Cain the $100M/5 year contract, given his career long issues with his elbow, he was the one who should have gotten the treatment that Bumgarner got. <br /><br />Lincecum, while no injury problems until the hips, had his short stature and unique pitching mechanics that suggested that he would have a short career too, a shooting star. I hoped that all the talk about him having a freak physique would give him a longer career, but it didn't, and again, as much as I loved him as a player, I would not have given him such big contracts without him going on the market first, and testing it out, especially the second one.<br /><br />Bumgarner, I still think will have a long effective career when everything is over. He has the body for it. He has never had problems with his body other than freak accidents. The bull steer roping is scary, sure, but I would have been okay with a clause cancelling the contract if he injures his body doing that. Or any other athletic endeavor involving bikes. He was the one who deserved the long-term contract, as I think he's the one who was most likely to do well under it, both Cain and Lincecum were clearly huge risks, given their prior noted issues.<br /><br />But pitchers careers end prematurely, it is just the nature of the skill, I believe.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.com