Giants Trade Taschner, then Flips for Hector Correa

The Giants traded Jack Taschner to the Phillies for Ronny Paulino, and promptly flipped him to the Florida Marlins for Hector Correa.  Paulino had a nice first season as a good hitting catcher, prompting thoughts that the might be our new backup catcher, but then he was traded for Correa.

Minor League Baseball Analyst had this to say about Correa:

Tall/projectable  pitcher with a quick arm that produces late life to FB and gives him ability to mask change-up.  Slider is improving, but doesn't like to use it in tight spots.  Needs to pitch more aggressively, especially in establishing inside part of the plate and prevent hitters from sitting on FB.

He rated his potential as #3 starter and his talent level as an average regular pitcher who is still far away from the majors.

Baseball America had this to say about Correa, who they ranked as Marlin's 22nd best prospect:

Correa ranked right behind Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez at No. 13 on this list a year ago, but he mistakenly tried to extend that momentum by pitching through a shoulder problem that wound up costing him four months of mound time in 2008.  His rehab path was bumpy at times, though for the most part he showed the necessary discipline.  Team officials believe he learned his lesson after trying to conceal an injury.  Correa manged to return for a fall minicamp and showed only slightly diminished velocity.  Intead of humming fastballs at 91-94 MPH and touching 95 MPH like he had in 2007, he worked mostly at 90-92.  He has a low-80's slider that shows good bite, but he remains more comfortable using a changeup that shows excellent action.  The shoulder problems came as a surprise because he has a loose arm and smooth, easily repeatable delivery, which allows him to throw strikes.  his frame is lean and projectable.  He's a good athlete with plus makeup.  Correa will open his third straight season in low Class A, with hopes of finally advancing in 2009.

Giants Thoughts

I have mixed feelings about the trades.  Paulino, just in 2006, hit .310/.360/.394/.754 as a regular, then hit .263/.314/.389/.703 the next season, then sunk to .212/.277/.305/.582 last season.  He also jacked 6 HR in 2006, 11 HR in 2007, then 2 HR in 2008, so he has a bit of power and being only 28 years old for 2009 season, he's hitting his physical prime and typically career peak period.  He would have been a great option as backup for us, plus if he regained his hitting stroke, could have been traded for more value.

Still, Hector Correa isn't that bad either.   If he can hum it in at 94-95 as a starter, as a reliever he would be capable of more.   That is great velocity.  And with late life on his pitches and the ability to hide his pitches, he could strike out a lot of guys.   I think I like the trades overall, as I suspect that despite trading Paulino, Steve Holm is not a sure thing to be backup.

Recent reports say that Sandoval is starting to get some playing time as a catcher.   He could become the backup catcher for Molina because both Aurilia and Uribe could play 3B in his stead.  I suspect that Holm might be sent down because a lot of our potential bench players are playing well.  

At 2B, both Burriss and Frandsen has done enough to earn the job (Burriss more so) so the player who doesn't start would get a bench spot now, when I thought it would end up with Frandsen starting and Burriss starting at SS in Fresno.  In the outfield, Andres Torres has been great, but Velez hasn't done anything to say that he should not be there either.  Plus Nate Schierholtz is a sure thing, as well as Uribe and Aurilia, for the bench.  That's 6 bench players, leaving no space for Holm.  

If there were not so many doing so well, Holm probably would have gotten a spot by default.  But with so many players doing so well, the Giants appear to feel that they need to open up spots, including going with only 11 pitchers in the pitching staff, in order to reward the good play with starting the season on the major league roster.  

Of course, there is still the possibility that this was the plan all along, that they would start Sandoval strictly at 3B during the spring, then near the end give him some reps at catching to prepare for the season as backup, pushing out Holm.   Either way, it is a good idea to include another useful player on the bench plus reward them for their good play in spring.  

However, the clock will be ticking, because when Romo is ready for the team, they will probably bring him and drop down someone off the bench, namely Torres, Velez, and perhaps the 2B backup.  Also, there has been rumors that Velez could be on the trading block as well.

Former and Not-Former Giants News

As Bud Costello used to say in his comedy routine, "I love baseball." I often read through the transactions in the newspaper and recently saw a bunch of former Giants signing with other teams or otherwise listed in the transaction pages, so I thought I would run through them:

• Justin Leone and Todd Linden signed with the Yankees, who made a sweep of other teams flotsom, signing other players like Angel Berroa, Jason Johnson, and Sergio Metre to minor league contracts.
• Dan Ortmeier signed with the Rockies on a minor league contract (Scott Podsednik - I guess he replaces stat/skill doppelganger Willy Taveras? - and Glendon Rusch were also signed). Good luck to him, but it was clear he wasn't get much of a chance going forward, we have so many better 1B options now that rank ahead of him, he really blew his chance in 2008. I guess he is hoping that the Holliday trade opened an opportunity for him in the outfield, as Helton will be around for a bit while longer.
• Guillermo Rodriguez signed with the Orioles.
• David Aardsma was designated for assignment by the Red Sox.

I also noticed on the Biz of Baseball website that Jack Taschner is actually arbitration eligible not because he had passed 3 years of service, which I had originally thought, but because he is classified as a Super Two. I always thought that was related to how good a player had done in his second year, but I was wrong: "Super Two, or a player that has at least 2 years of service, but less than 3, has accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year, and ranked in the top 17% of all 2-year players in service time." Taschner had 2.146 years of service, just behind Melky Cabrera and Russell Martin, and the "leader" was Brian Bannister (who had a terrible second season) with 2.158.

New Blog: Inside the Giants Clubhouse by Joan Ryan

Lastly, I thought I would give a shout-out to a nice new Giants run blog run by Joan Ryan, who used to be with the Examiner/Chronicle and covered sports once upon a time, but now is a media consultant with the Giants. In her latest entry, there were some interesting news from a "Chalk Talk" that the Giants held for season ticket holders last week:

• Fred Lewis has blossomed and is comfortable being himself in the public eye now, and starting to show confidence and leadership. He recently spoke "with both Jonathan Sanchez and Alex Hinshaw in Arizona, where they were working out together, saying that he and the team needed them to have big years, that he expected them to have big years because the team couldn't win if they didn't." Among his 2009 season goals: .315 average, 20 homers, and 20 triples.
• Bochy said the rotation right now is Lincecum, Johnson, Cain, Zito, and either Sanchez or Lowry. I heard on KNBR in an interview that he did this to break up the lefties.
• Bochy said he expects the "break-out'' minor-leaguers to be Baumgartner, Alderson, Noonan and Posey. "They're all on the fast track,'' he said. "Brian (Sabean) isn't afraid to bring young guys up quickly.''
• Bochy said he and batting coach Carney Lansford would be focusing on improving the team's abysmal on-base percentage. "It's an area we're going to stress this spring, to be a little more patient at the plate. If you have a good on-base percentage, you're going to create more opportunities.'' But he also cautioned one questioner about criticizing strikeouts too harshly. "Strikeouts are not as bad as you think,'' Bochy said. "It gets the pitcher's pitch count up. You're working the pitcher.''

Giants Thoughts

About Lewis, that is very encouraging about his "transformation" (as he would probably term it). He clearly feels he belongs and now has some lofty goals he wants to meet, that's good that he put it out there, it'll put pressure on him to achieve and succeed. If he took this long to show his personality, that suggests a cautiousness that would imply that he wouldn't speak to Sanchez and Hinshaw unless he felt comfortable enough to do that. Which is a bit bold, as Sanchez has been in the majors longer than Lewis, if memory serves.

In addition, from the Bochy interview on KNBR, he noted that he was seeing Lewis as the #5 hitter in the lineup, resulting in a lineup of Winn, Renteria, Sandoval, Molina, Lewis, Rowand, Ishikawa, and the second base winner, assuming no further changes. A recent news note (don't recall where I read it) said that the Giants are on the fringes of Joe Crede, which to me means that they kicked the tires, let them know that the Giants are interested in a one year deal with certain parameters and conditions (related to his health), get back to us if you become interested.

With only 30 days to spring training, that interest could be growing stronger every day, so Ishikawa has got to be praying that another team signs Crede soon. Bochy sounded very positive about Ishikawa, so there is that, and while he is probably not what people are looking for at 1B, I think he will be an above average #7 hitter; the average #7 hitter hit .259/.326/.406/.732 in 2008. People focus too much on whether a player is above average for a position, but one key consideration people forget about is lineup construction, about how the players you have, in total, compare with the average NL lineup. Of course, as long as we have Molina batting 4th, our lineup will not compare favorably unless most of our other hitters are above.

About Bochy on break-outs, all I can say is, Wow! I felt that Bumgarner and perhaps Alderson could make the majors this season with a great start in AA and need at the majors for relief (or god forbid, starts), but it is good to see that the Giants think they can make it up quickly as well.

I suspected as much with Bumgarner because Sanchez dominated at Class A and soon rose to the majors to join relief. Earl Weaver liked to bring pitchers up as relievers to let them acclimate to major league life, and ease them in, even the starters, so I've always wondered if the late Pat Dobson had influenced Sabean's or the Giant's thinking in this regard.

In particular, Noonan didn't really do that well in A-ball, so he was a surprise. I mean, he did well there for an 18 year old, but he struck out a lot and walked very little, suggesting he will take a while longer to move up, and certainly not that he would move up fast. I guess this means that the Giants like his bat enough that his lack of plate discipline performance is related more to him battling pitchers 3-4 years old than him than him not being a good hitter without a plan at the plate.

About Posey, I was very surprised to see his name listed too, as that would imply that the Giants is viewing as a possible scenario a trade of Molina, as it would make no sense to bring Posey up except to bring him up as the starting pitcher. Still, that speaks to the confidence the Giants are showing in Posey's abilities, suggesting that he is probably going to end up at AA for 2009 and believe that he is close enough that he could make the big show with a really good showing in the first half of 2009.

Giants News of the Day

Besides the Rule 5 Draft today where we picked up fireballing reliever Luis Perdomo, we have some other Giants news to report:

• One reason Perdomo was selected was because Merkin Valdez is going to have surgery again (see report on sfgiants.com). Wow, he's 27 now and felt tightness in his forearm (not similar to Lowry's ailment but it sounds like similar stuff) while pitching in winter league. He's going under the knife on Monday, with rehab to last 6-8 weeks (Baggarly had reported 4-6 weeks), allowing him to be on the mound and "somewhat" competitive when spring training starts. It is a "pain issue as opposed to compressed nerves," which was Lowry's problem.
• Wow, the Cards got Perdomo and cash for former phenom pitching prospect Anthony Reyes, so now the Cards end up with nothing for him. I wonder why they left him unprotected, given how good his stats were. Reyes was the Card's Matt Cain, but while Cain has gone well, Reyes could never figure it out.
• Info on Perdomo from Tidrow, as reported in the link above: "Perdomo possesses two above-average pitches -- a fastball that ranges between 93-95 mph and a slider. Perdomo's currently trying to refine his changeup while pitching for Aguilas in the Dominican Winter League...the reports are [good]"
• Giants have offered Jack Taschner a contract, which is part of the process of keeping the arbitration-eligible lefty reliever. Sabean recognizes Tasch's value: "He just needs to pitch in a spot in the pecking order where he can relax and have some success. He's been overexposed a little bit. And to have three lefties, including him, really helps. Not many teams can do that."
• The Giants are one of the teams that Randy Johnson is particularly interested in joining, according to a report by the Chron's John Shea. As Sabean noted, "He can still pitch. He's an intimidating force." The Big Unit is favoring teams that train in Arizona, where he lives, NL teams, competitive teams. Barry Meister, one of his agents, noted: "Randy's really interested... We made a check list of everything that's important, and San Francisco checks off on every box.... San Francisco has a lot of appeal." As for the A's, "We're just trying to keep our options open." Ouch! Apparently, the Rangers are interested and wooing him with Nolan Ryan, an old buddy. Unless Ryan is going to room with him, I don't see how friendship is going to lure Johnson to Texas.
• Haven't reported it yet, but the Giants have decided that they now again considering re-signing Rich Aurilia, after first saying they might later, then no, and now thinking about it again. It makes sense: at first, they wanted to take care of other things first before thinking about Aurilia, then they thought they were getting close to getting a corner infielder (probably 3B since they originally said Sandoval was at 1B) so they thought they didn't need him, then once that died, that's when they made the recent announcement (which I also didn't report) that they would be happy with starting 2009 with Ishikawa at 1B and Sandoval at 3B (which set off a firestorm among Giants fans). This way, should either falter or need a "break", or either case, need a platoon buddy (this way, for example, he could alternate between 1B and 3B when there is a lefty starter, giving Sandoval and Ishikawa, who both don't hit LHP well, some AB, but not a lot of AB, against LHP.
• Ugh, super agent Scott Boras said his client 3B Joe Crede, who has a history of back problems, including one that ended his 2008 season early, could be an option, saying he's healthy (what else is he going to say?) and even sending Crede's medical records to teh Giants. Luckily, the rumor doesn't say that the Giants are interested, just that Boras is, in Sabean-speak, kicking the tires and doing his due diligence.
• And if you live under a rock, CC Sabathia was so important that Brian Cashman flew to negotiate personally with CC in Vallejo during the important Winter Meetings, and came away with a new ace starter for a 7 year, $161M contract (that works out to $23M per year, which is greater than the $22.9M that Santana got).
• And Sabean ripped the local media a new one for making it seem like the Giants were heavily into Sabathia when there was actually very little happening. While the media was at fault for that, and I sympathize with Sabean, this is the 21st Century and Neukom set Sabean and the Giants up for that by not committing publicly to a payroll figure, which would stop Giants fans from dreaming about getting, say, a Teixeira, with the "money" the Giants would have used on Sabathia.
• Neukom will have to learn about the consequences of dealing with the media, and speak more strategically to let the fans know enough but not everything, and Sabean will have to get used to the 21st Century. For example, in this case, say the budget is around $85M again, and if you do expand the budget, as Neukom has said he would for the right player, you just say that you couldn't pass him up. People would be just happy the payroll was expanded and not ask "hey, but you went over the budget!"

Giants Lineup

I took the ZIP projections for the Giants, that's available off of Dan Szymborski's website, Baseball Think Factory, and calculated what the projected lineup and pitching staff would do based on his projections. He's actually quite complementary of the Giants and Sabean (for once).

The lineup, as Bochy had expounded, with Burriss would score 4.01 runs per game, while with Frandsen, it would score 4.10 runs per game. The pitching staff would have an ERA of 3.97 overall, though that is without Perdomo's stats in there, I assumed that Misch is the #5 starter (obviously big improvement if we do sign Johnson) and the bullpen is composed of Wilson, Howry, Affeldt, Romo, Taschner, and Matos (the best ERAs projected).

That works out to 82 wins with Burriss starting, 84 wins with Frandsen starting (don't have true RS and RA; but lineup forecast should not be including error related runs and neither does the pitching ERA since, well, it's the ERA. Based on the projections for the pitching staff, the ZIP projection was for 85 wins (using winning percentage for 162 games). In 2008, the D-gers won with only 84 wins, and that was only after making the big trade to get Manny; they were scuffling at .500 before that. In addition, they have lost much of their rotation to free agency, plus one to injury, as well as possibly losing Manny. And the rest of the division is retrenching and selling off their best players (Colorado and Padres) or letting them go for nothing in return, which should hurt them too (D-backs and Dunn). The Giants, as is, looks like a division winner based on the numbers from the ZIPS projections, which I've always considered to be very conservative (that is, too low).

FYI: substituting in Johnson for Misch, it works out to 3.90 ERA, 83 wins, 85 wins, and 87 wins.

Fangraphs have both Marcel and Bill James projections up, so I will compile those as well and see what the win totals are using those stats. But I thought this would be good, one, because the data is all in one place (almost), and two, since I consider them conservative, this would be, at least theoretically, the worse case scenario.

Lose-Win Proposition: The Drive for a Top Five Draft Pick

Of course, I would never root for the Giants to lose. But when you are mired in a rebuilding, excuse me, "transitional" year, losing is the tonic for what ails you, as that will result in a good draft pick the next season, giving you another player who may lead you back to the promise land - the playoffs. So while I'm not rooting for the team to lose, as we lose veterans in trades for prospects (make it so Number One!) and unproven prospects take their places and, most probably, not do as well, losing will be the theme of the second half of the 2008 season.


And it won't take much as we are already in good position: we have the 4th pick of the 2009 draft at the moment, as D'Rocks passed us up today, raising us up from the 5th pick. As I've noted before, my study shows that in recent drafts, the best chances of finding a good prospect are among the top 5 picks of the drafts typically.


Here are the current standing (as of right when I checked the standings, there are still some games outstanding but I just wanted to write this post):


1 Nats 37 61 -
1 Pads 37 61 -
3 Marin 38 59 1.5
4 Giants 40 57 3.5
5 Rocks 42 57 4.5
6 Indian 42 54 6
7 Royals 44 54 7
8 Pirates 44 53 7.5
9 Braves 46 51 9.5
9 Astros 46 51 9.5


I don't have the tie-breakers for ties, so I just listed them this way. But I expect the Nats to do worse than the Padres over the rest of the season, and I've heard rumors of the Braves trading Teixiera, so I think they will do worse than the Astros.


For the Giants, until the recent losing streak - which of course coincided with the flu striking much of the team, so it appears that this losing streak was a lovely parting gift from Brian Horwitz, who was the first with it - they had basically been playing .500 after Dave Roberts went on the DL. But this bad losing streak is probably for the best, as it now clearly shows Brian Sabean (and the rest of management) that it would be futile to hang onto any veteran (or to trade for any) just to keep the team competitive this season.


Giants Thoughts


Speaking of trades, according to a number of articles I've read, including this one from the Chron, the Giants and Brewers have been talking trade for a while. Even though the Chron had just the other day said that there was no substantive trade talk between the team, this linked Chronicle article now says that the Brewers are looking at Durham and previous articles had mentioned Jack Taschner, though his performance was a bit lacking against the Brewers, plus that they pulled a minor league player and would be announcing a trade in the morning.


It also mentioned the possibility of a bigger trade of Rickie Weeks to the Giants. That one caught my eye. A previous Chron article had mentioned that the Brewers were looking for a lefty hitter and relievers. We have a lot of lefty hitters, Lewis, Bowker, Roberts, even Randy Winn and Ray Durham are lefties, though if they are going to deal Weeks, they would want a good young player in return, I would assume.


Here's my trade idea: how about Lewis, Taschner, and maybe another prospect (or even another reliever, though Lewis and Taschner might be enough) for Weeks, then also trade Durham for the minor leaguer pulled (speedster - sounds familiar - Darren Ford).


Before I hear the protests at my speculation, hear me out on this. We have outfielders galore, particularly lefty ones, but are lacking in middle infielders, particularly good ones. As much as I like Kevin Frandsen, he's at best a complementary player as a starter, and could end up a very nice infield utility player who can play multiple positions - nothing wrong with that, though I still think he can do more; still, he's unproven and we don't really have many choices there right now, just question marks like Jose Castillo, Travis Denker, Eugenio Velez.


As much as I like Fred Lewis, his defense isn't that great, which is a sad thing given he's been devoting himself to baseball for much of his life. And he's still not hitting for much HR power, but is good for getting on base and extra-base power and some steals, kind of like a lefty Randy Winn with poorer defense but better basestealing. He's never been considered that good a prospect on an overall basis, but has done well. Plus, he's not that young, he'll be in his early 30's by the time the Giants are ready to compete again, 2010 and later.


If Lewis is traded, Roberts would probably start in LF, so I can see the heckles on that, but then we would have Rickie Weeks starting at 2B for us. Rickie Weeks was a former top 5-10 draft pick (I think 5 but hedging), a former top prospect with a LOT of potential, but he's been unable to capitalize on all his talents consistently with the Brewers. In addition, he's been injury prone as well.


They don't have to time to watch and hope he figures things out, as they showed with the CC Sabathia trade, they are playing for now, this season, but the Giants do have the time to see if he figures things out. He is a much better prospect than Lewis ever was, and if the Giants can figure out how to harness that - it will be like getting another high draft pick on the team. It would also clear a corner outfield position for Schierholtz or a key free agent signing (lots of power corner OF usually available), whereas middle infield players like Weeks are not often available in the free agent market, especially not young like he is.

Anytime you can get a prospect like Rickie Weeks without giving up an equivalent level of talent (big assumption on my part, but I don't see the Giants parting with Bumgarner or Alderson for Weeks, or even Sanchez), you have to roll the dice and see what happens. Hopefully the Giants and Sabean can pull this off.