Wish List for Off-Seaon Before 2014 Season: Belt Getting Signed to a Long-Term Contract

One of the things I would like to see in the off-season is for the Giants to sign Belt to a long term deal, much like they did with Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner in recent years, and Cain and Lowry long ago.

And why not?  He has been a good hitter for us, even though he had been hindering himself with bad mechanics, so one could say that the Giants over the past three seasons have been trying to "tame" a wild horse (giraffe?) with his benchings, which drew the ire of a part of the Belt fanbase.  And which he didn't go through much of in 2013 season anyway, he was the clear starter, I just think that some Belt fans just get a little over protective of him.

I've been expecting him to bust out sooner than later, and I think 2014 could be the year he does it, given that he finally changed his batting grip and had such great success with it.  So I think it is imperative for the Giants to work on signing him up long term, the sooner the better, but at least before the 2014 season.

Giants Should Hire Randy Johnson as Coach

There is a very nice article by Chris Haft on sfgiants.com about Randy Johnson's influence on the Giants 2009 team. Based on what's in there, we definitely should engage Johnson in adding him as a coach somewhere in our system, whatever works for what he wants to do in his after career.
Some interesting tidbits:

Johnson imparted much of his wisdom upon his brethren in San Francisco's
starting rotation, bestowing lessons they'll ideally draw upon throughout the
future.

And:

Johnson repeated last year that his competitive philosophy revolved around his preoccupation with winning, a healthy obsession that spurred him to win 303
games in his 22-year career. As Giants right-hander Matt Cain explained, Johnson's approach proved infectious.

"He really made an impact on us as a staff to try to lead this team to a victory," Cain said Wednesday, one day after Johnson announced his retirement. "And then the hitters [would] do the same thing. He kind of joined our staff together and motivated us, and I think that motivated the whole team. I feel like we clicked as a group a lot better than we have in the past."

And:

During his retirement conference call, Johnson expressed a desire to coach that stemmed from his interactions with teammates in recent seasons.

"The one thing I really enjoyed the last few years, for anybody who wants to listen, is help people," Johnson said.

And:

Each of San Francisco's starters absorbed Johnson's counsel.

Hearing Johnson urge him not to feel satisfied with success, Tim Lincecum won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award.

Thrilled to have such an eminent left-hander in his midst, Barry Zito performed with renewed focus as the Giants won 18 of his 33 starts.

"He's a Hall of Fame guy," Cain said of Johnson. "You want him to remember that you played your heart out with him. It's a great opportunity that we got to play with him, not just another face we played against. It was a lot of fun to be a teammate of his."

Jonathan Sanchez, who reminded Johnson of himself, crept closer toward gaining true consistency and scraped the ceiling of his skill by no-hitting San Diego on July 10. Sanchez, said Johnson, was "a lot like I was at a young age. He has everything there; he has to put it together."

And:

Cain himself might have been Johnson's sharpest pupil. They played catch together before Spring Training workouts, but Cain took more from Johnson than just hundreds of throws.

"We had a ton of sit-down conversations in spring," said Cain, who listened to Johnson discuss the essentials of developing sound preparation, maintaining intensity on the mound and taking nothing for granted.

Cain endured poor run support while posting a 15-30 mark in 2007-08. The Giants scored more often for Cain in 2009, but he seized upon his improved backing by avoiding the late-inning collapses that occasionally plagued him.

This was partly a product of Johnson's telling him that whether he found himself
in the first, fifth or ninth inning, each frame was important.

"It really helped me stay focused longer through the game and throughout the season," Cain said. Result: Cain won 12 of his first 14 decisions, finished 14-8 and made his first NL All-Star team.

And:

"When you actually saw him go out there and take that mentality to the field -- he wasn't just saying it, he believed in it and made you believe in it," Cain said.

And:

"I think we'll always think back to the mentality we took in every start," Cain said. "It improved me a lot."

Giants Thoughts

Hopefully the Giants management who attended the press conference where Johnson talked about all this pulled Randy aside afterward to talk about him taking on a coaching role with us when he is ready. I am afraid, however, that his home might be in Arizona, and given his long tenure there, both would point towards him working for them.

But as I noted in my post about his retirement, he should be studied for a chapter in The Giants Way manual on how a pitcher should operate and make that SOP (standard operating procedure) for every pitcher coming through the Giants system. And if he could be a coach in our system and teach what he knows, all the better.

Though, I don't know what is so revolutionary about Johnson telling Cain that "whether he found himself in the first, fifth or ninth inning, each frame was important." I (and many other baseball fans) could have told him that. It must have been in the way Johnson delivered it. :^)

Well, his stature in the game will certain give any advice he gives as coach that much more rigor and standing. Good luck to Randy, and I hope the Giants were one of the people listening to Randy when he spoke about wanting to help people. He mentioned in an interview that there will be nothing in life that will give him that feeling of competition like he felt when he was pitching, but there is the next best thing: being manager.

And in the meantime, maybe Randy can work on that chapter on pitching for us. :^)

Rotation slot effects on scoring support

It has been my contention that where a pitcher falls in the rotation will affect his run support because, in theory, if you are higher in the rotation, the tougher the pitchers you face and thus the less run support you get. On the other hand, then the lower rotation guys get more run support because they generally face pitchers who are the back fo the rotation.


The argument against this is that with varying off-days and rainouts, plus other reasons for disturbing the rotation, that this would not hold true, that it would vary enough that my theory would turn out to be wrong. I understand these factors, but from my fantasy league experience, I find that varying off-days might change one or another, but then they fall back into sync again. Rainouts are more problematic, but the Giants typically don't have a lot of those to deal with.


What I present is not definitive, but certainly indicative that my supposition has some validity. Here are the 2008 Giants starters run support, which I'm ordering them from 1 (ace) to 5 (back of the rotation), based on who went 1 to 5 to start the season:

• Zito: 3.60 runs per 9 innings support
• Cain: 3.12 runs
• Lincecum: 4.57 runs
• Sanchez: 4.79 runs
• Correia: 3.96 runs

For 2007 Giants, from 1 to 5:

• Zito: 4.21 runs
• Cain: 3.12 runs
• Morris: 4.99 runs
• Lowry: 4.70 runs
• Ortiz: 5.45 runs
• Lincecum: 4.54 runs (took over Ortiz's spot in rotation; average of the two is 4.67 runs)

For 2006 Giants, from 1 to 5:

• Schmidt: 4.38 runs
• Morris: 4.11 runs
• Lowry: 5.40 runs
• Cain: 4.67 runs
• Wright: 4.67 runs

For the 2006-2008 Giants, from 1 to 5, average of 3 years:

• #1: 4.06 runs support
• #2: 3.46 runs
• #3: 4.99 runs
• #4: 4.72 runs
• #5: 4.44 runs

I should note here that the setup of the rotation for the Giants rarely did not change when it came time to readjust the rotation after the All-Star break. Still, as one can see, generally, the front of the rotation gets much less support from the offense because they are facing the front of the rotation for other teams. And the mid to back of the rotation gets much more, over 1.5 runs more from #2 to #3 and, at the closest, over 0.38 runs from #1 to #5.

The odd thing, obviously, is that runs scored is greater in the middle than at the back end. I attribute part of that to the fact that teams' off days are not always in sync, thus pushing the ace to pitch against the #5 sometimes, bringing down the average run support for the #5 starter. Likewise, sometimes the #5 would get pushed to face the other team's #4.

Still, it is odd that the highest run support was usually in the #3 spot (Lincecum fell short in 2008, but remember, he got moved to the #1 spot in the second half, which reduced his run support). And that the #4 spot was still lower than the #3 spot.

A wild guess would be that the truly worse starter is typically #3 or #4 because teams like to reward the vets senority and pitch them higher in the rotation than they should be, had expected performance been used to drive the selection instead. Then age decline or expected performance happens and more runs are given up in the middle, while the new young starters typically get thrown at the back of the rotation, where they sometimes kick butt, pushing the runs scored lower. But if they do poorly, then they are like the other pitchers in the back of the rotation. Thus the upside potential at the back end of the rotation is greater than the expected averageness (but low chance of upside) that is normally in the middle of the rotation.

Still, not conclusive, but the general sizing is that the back of the rotation gets more runs support than the front, and the only plausible explanation of that is that rotations generally keep the same general order over at least the first half of the season, which is demarked by the All-Star game, which generally happens around the 95th game of the season, not the 81st, or roughly 19 starts in the first half, 13 starts in the second half, which is when rotations often change, but typically the ace is still up top, and generally the #2 is still #2.

I think my idea not only has legs, but good support by the data, albeit only one team over only 3 seasons, but the general shape held well across the time span, each starting position generally held the same rank: #1 got more runs than #2, but much less than #3, #4, #5; and #3 was greater than #4, which was greater than #5, for the most part.

A Thought About Left-Hitting Prospects

The Giants have an abundance of hitters who can hit RHP but not so well against LHP. Fred Lewis, Dan Ortmeier, even Nate Schierholtz has had some problems with LHP in the past, though he was good this year. Well, what does one of the best hitters ever do to prepare to hit against LHP?

Barry Bonds has his own LHP come to the park with him and on road trips to throw to him and keep him sharp, because that's a major problem why they are not able to handle LHP, they don't face them that often. Why don't the Giants pay someone to do likewise for their prospects, both in the minors and in the majors?

Perhaps one per team, with maybe two for the major league team, to mix it up plus the guy has got to tire out at some point, so you have at least two to handle the guys having problems hitting lefties. It seems to me that it should not cost that much to implement, maybe $100K per MLB thrower, $50K per minor league thrower. It would be a way for some to stay involved with professional baseball when their playing days are over, and that's not bad money for half a year's work.

Also, the guy who pitches to Bonds is also allowed to throw whatever he feels like, just to keep it real. That would be good to implement as well. Just a thought...