Your 2016 Giants: 40-man Roster Moves

Beyond the Aoki non-option, I realized that I should mention other roster moves that had been made recently.  The Giants outrighted Juan Perez, Nick Noonan, Jackson Willilams, and Brett Bochy, which opened up spots for guys the Giants brought off of the 60-day DL, which was necessary once the World Series was won by the Royals (Congrats!), allowing Joe Panik, Andrew Susac, and Hector Sanchez back on the 40-man.  Juan Perez was also brought off the 60-day DL, then was waivered and passed through.  Oh, and I recall that Kevin Frandsen was released as well, at some point.

It appears that Perez was placed back on the AAA roster after passing through waivers.  No news on what is happening with Noonan, Williams, or Bochy.

Your 2014 Giants: Things are Getting Uggla and They Just Got Peavy

The Giants brought up Dan Uggla yesterday, as well as Tony Abreu, as both Ehire Adrianza and Marco Scutaro both goes back onto the 15-day DL.  Unfortunately, both players being brought up were not on the 40-man roster, so Nick Noonan was DFAed, as well as off-season pickup, Jose De Paula.

Then they went out and got Jake Peavy for Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree (you were right Shankbone!)

ogc thoughts

As I commented somewhere, I have no problem with the Giants picking up Uggla and giving him a 25-man spot.  People focus on his decline from his very good years, which I understand.  But right now, we don't need him to be like his very good self, because we got Pence, Posey, Sandoval, Morse in the middle.

What we need is someone who can hit better than Hicks, Arias, Adrianza, Panik, and Scutaro can.  And the Uggla of 2012-2013 can do that in spades.  We don't need a top of the lineup hitter, we just need a steady contributor in the 6-7-8 spots, depending on the day and the pitcher.  Uggla, if 2014 is more a reflection of his discontent with his situation and the pressure of living up to his contract and thus he can be like his 2012-13 self would be good for us.

Of course, regular readers know that I still like Adrianza and that I have pointed out that he's been hitting well since June 1st.  But this is his second DL for the hamstring, and he's probably not getting better until he rests this off-season.   And I don't know if he's ready to be a regular, though if the opportunity were there, I would be OK with it.  But Uggla hasn't been that bad in 2012-13, just not very good, and those versions of him would be OK fine for us in 2014.

Alas Poor Noonan

I still believe in Nick Noonan, but sometimes a player needs more time than a team can give him or just need a change of scenery.  Of course, that's assuming that he's not claimed and returns to the Giants.  He is from the San Diego area though and they probably have a better opening in MI than the Giants, so he could end up there as well.

But he's shown good plate discipline in spurts in the minors and has hit well when he's in his groove.  Unfortunately for him, Joe Panik is like a better version of him, showing good plate discipline too, but doing it more and better than Nick.  Neither one is superior defensively either at MI spots, as well.  Good luck Nick, wherever you end up.

Paging Jake Peavy

Wow, there was enough smoke this time.  There were a lot of rumors that the Giants wanted Peavy.  I was a little surprised that Escobar was the one to go, but given his difficulties this season in AAA, I guess the Giants saw enough that convinced them that he's the one to let go.   Shankbone commented that Hembree might be a throw in, and once I read that, it just made sense to me, given how other relievers got the love this spring and he didn't even make the majors once this season.

And, really, the Giants had to be thinking of a two for one trade anyway, with Hector concussed and likely needing to go on the DL, they would need to add a non-roster catcher to the team today, and would need two spots open.  With Sabean's recent statement that everyone is up for grabs in trade (but only if a fair one in his estimation, so it's not a free for all either), meaning that no one is a keeper, may as well look to give up two for one in a deal, and open up a spot.

The rumors was that the Giants, or specifically, Bochy, wanted Peavy, with the thinking that being with his old manager might help Peavy figure things out.  Of course, that was true back when he was with the White Sox and reportedly on the trading block then too, but he ended up with Boston.   Hopefully that is true.  Don't have time to look at stats, but obviously, he's not doing that well for Boston.  But they still got two Top 10 prospects from the Giants, so they will certainly trumpet that in their press.

I like Petit, but he seems off this season vs. last season, which I attribute to him being a bit rusty pitching irregular relief vs. being a starter in the minors last season.  So I'm OK with this pickup as well, we need another starter with Cain up in the air apparently from the news of no improvement and nobody in the minors looking ready yet.

Catching Fire

With many of the moves that Sabean make, they try to catch lightening in the bottle.  So when they call up a catcher, I expect that Susac will be the recipient of the 40-man roster spot.  He's been hitting well and while not great defensively, most reports have been positive that I recall.  May as well give him a chance to play up here and see what he got.  And frankly, Sanchez has been banged up so many times that I don't expect him out for only 7 days, much like how Belt has been out more than 7 days (FYI, turns out that it was Scutaro that threw the ball that hit Belt in the face, and he just got sent back down:  coincidence?).

2013 Redux?

Wow, so many injuries happening and keeping guys out long term.  Seems a lot like 2013 again, when a lot of guys were out for injuries or dealing with recurring pain.  The difference is that our main lineup is still mostly OK, the bullpen seems fine, and the rotation just got a boost, hopefully.  But we will see.

Your 2013 Giants: The Great Eight September Call-Ups

The Giants called up eight prospects for their September call-ups (Splash):

• MI Nick Noonan
• MI Ehire Adrianza
• OF Francisco Pequero
• OF Juan Perez
• RHP George Kontos
• RHP Jake Dunning
• RHP Heath Hembree
• C  Johnny Monell

Risk Mitigation: Giants Style

There is a good quote of Bobby Evans by Chris Haft on mlb.com/sfgiants.com:

 "The work's never done. There are too many ways to try to find ways to protect your team over a long season." -- Evans

ogc thoughts

That has been one of the things I've been harping on the past few years about Sabean and the Giants, about how they practice risk mitigation.  In Sabean's interviews, you would hear the terms "flexibility" or "versatility" but Evans' quote comes closest to what I've been saying, about finding "ways to protect your team over a long season."  That is risk mitigation.

The signings of Uribe and DeRosa and, heck, back to the trade for Winn, represents the first strong signs of doing that, during that period.  After all the issues with Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, the Giants have focused more of their free agent signings on the lower tiers on risk mitigation, that is, the flexibility to not have a season go to pot from a starter going down.

Of course, there is really nothing you can do if one of your star hitters like Posey or Sandoval, go down.  But for the rest of the team, if you have a good infield utility player and one good outfield utility player, your team can stay afloat in the pennant race should somebody either go down or just is not performing on the field, like most teams run into with prospects.

DeRosa was the ultimate version of that, but I'll start with Winn first since he was one of those first flexible players.  He was and is a tweener, not really good enough defensively in CF but not really good enough offensively on the corners, but basically an average player no matter which OF position you put him at.  So, depending on who is hitting and who is not hitting or not available, Winn was able to play all three OF positions adequately to good, as well as hit adequately.  Roberts was a little like that too, only he was never healthy long enough to do that job for us.

DeRosa was never healthy enough, but he was the ultimate in utility when we got him.  He was really a platoon hitter, killed LHP, but did OK vs. RHP, good enough to play almost regularly, nearly 150 games per season.  However, he was great defensively at many positions, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and could play SS in a pinch (started out as a pro there) and could play 1B probably OK as well.  He would have been great for us if he had only gone to the expert to get his wrist fixed instead of being lazy and going to the local doctor, who screwed it up.

Last season, Theriot and Arias helped keep things on an even keel while Franchez was out and Sandoval was DLed, while Blanco did likewise in the OF, doing OK enough while starting.  On the previous World Champion team, Uribe and Torres did it for the Giants, even Renteria too, though he was originally hired to be the starting SS but was just injured all the time.

They did the same in the bullpen too.  Many Giants fans groaned over the signing of both Lopez and Affedlt to large (for bullpen) contracts prior to the 2012 season.  But they proved to be good backup once Wilson came up lame.  I didn't see any of these Naysayers apologizing when Affeldt flew through the 2012 playoffs with 10.1 IP, giving only 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 and allowing zero runs.  Lopez wasn't used as much, but he was helpful too, 3.0 IP, giving up 0 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4 and allowing no runs too.  Given that he only pitched in the two key series against Cincinnati and St. Louis (wasn't used in World Series), where a run could have tipped the series to the other side, that was critical pitching.  He helped win two of the games in the Reds series, and three of the games in the St. Louis series.

And both served as closers during the regular season as well.  In fact, who didn't serve?  Six different players recorded saves in 2012:  Casilla (25), Romo (14), Lopez (7), Affeldt (3), even Hensley (3), plus Wilson (1).    Pitchers were swapping in and out, pitching setup, pitching closer.  Also the middle relievers got to pitch setup as well.

And who is the ace of the rotation?  The season started out with Lincecum taking the pole position.  Cain got the home opener.  Bumgarner ended up opening the second half of the season after the All-Star game.   Cain got the first game of the NLDS.  Bumgarner got the first game of the NLCS.  And Zito got the World Series first start.  And while Vogelsong didn't get one of these ace first starts, he pitched like the ace of the playoffs, coming in and shutting down the opposition when the Giants were at the brink of losing.  He had only a 1.09 ERA in 4 starts, 24.2 IP, with 16 hits and 10 walks, striking out 21 and allowing only 3 runs.

And don't forget, Vogelsong was the guy who came up in 2011 and not only held the fort in Zito's absence, but proved to be ace-like in performance.  They also had Petit in 2012 and Hacker in 2010 and 2011 did well for us in AAA.  He just resigned with us, at age 30.  The Giants add these guys to hang around in the minors, just in case they were needed.

Blanco, Arias, Loux, Machi, Petit and Vogelsong started the season off in AAA, waiting for the call to the major leagues, insurance players that the Giants stashed in AAA, just in case a starter goes down.  That is risk mitigation.  And where would we have been if we did not have Theriot, who hit very well after returning from the DL, around .340 OBP, in the two spot, until Scutaro came over, capable of playing 2B and SS, and manning 3B until Sandoval returned, then took over the starting 2B spot and never let go.

Risk mitigation, as the Giants and Sabean has done it, is by having versatile utility players who were comfortable serving many different roles on the team, as the need arose.  Need a starting 2B?  Bam!  Theriot slotted in, and did well there until Scutaro was acquired and held the job.  Need a starting 3B?  Bam!  Arias started there, then Scutaro later.  Need a closer?  Bam!  Casilla, then closer by committee (Romo, Lopez, Affeldt), then Romo in the playoffs.  The Giants have been playing the risk mitigation game well over the past four seasons.

2013 Giants Risk Mitigation

Bringing back the whole team, also, the same players look to fill the risk mitigation roles.  Blanco looks like the LF right now, but should a Huff-like deal open up in LF just before spring training starts, don't be surprised if the Giants jump on a nice RH bat to platoon with Blanco or even start in LF.  And Torres is currently on the market.  Francisco Peguero also looks like he could fill the Blanco role in 2013, he plays all three OF positions, looks like he can hit anywhere (like Pablo), has great speed and defense, and even has a RH bat.

The scuttlebutt is that Ryan Theriot is interested in returning and the Giants are interested in him returning as well.  Meanwhile, we still have Joaquin Arias sitting around, ready to fill in, and Nick Noonan has been prepared the last few years for such a role, having started at both 2B and SS in his climb up the farm system.  He also played some 3B as well and probably could handle 1B in a pinch if necessary.

Of course, the bullpen is pretty set, with Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, Kontos, and Mijares.  We have the same closer by committee set up for 2013, as the Giants are said to be looking to manage Romo's arm to survive the season and be ready for the playoffs.  The key here was the signing of Affeldt to another contract.

The Giants generally likes to let one position be open for competition, so that 7th spot could be where the compete is in 2013, though rumors has it that they were in on Grilli until he chose to return to the Pirates for two years, since nobody would go three years on him.  He has had a Vogelsong-like resurrection, though he was never as buried or unused as Vogie.  Still, if they were looking hard at Grilli, they might still pick up someone along the way and make Mijares' position the competition spot.  Heath Hembree looks like he will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, and as our future closer du jour, if he should make the team, he could be seeing duty from the middle to set-up to closing, depending on how well he does.

And AAA will be full of potential starter replacements.  Hacker has signed to return.  In addition, Eric Surkamp should be healthy and starting in AAA.  In addition, both Chris Heston and Mike Kickham look like they earned a promotion to AAA with their great pitching in AA in 2012.  So there is a whole rotation full of starters who could get the call.  And I'm not even sure whether Petit might return, he was good last season too.  And don't forget, they could also come up as relievers too.

Your 2013 Giants: Five Added to 40-Man Roster

Sorry, but things have been busy, here is the latest news on the Giants 40-man roster additions, as reported by sfgiants.com.  Five players have been added to the 40-man roster, after a lot of space was cleared out within a week of the glorious 2012 season that was the San Francisco Giants second World Championship in three years, including the release of RHP reliever Hensley and the sending of Burriss to AAA.  Even with the addition of these five players, there is still five more open spots in the 40-man roster, indicating that the Giants are hoping to add a number of free agents to the roster during the off-season.

• RHP Jake Dunning:  24 YO Dunning is a reliever, a little old for the EL in 2012 season at 23, but not that old either.  His 4.10 ERA was not that special, but he had a 2.41 K/BB ratio, which is good, and a low 2.9 BB/9, but not really that great for AA if he hopes to make the majors at some point.  He should get promoted to AAA but needs to do more if he wants to make the majors.
• LHP Edwin Escobar:  20 YO Escobar started 22 games and had a nice 2.96 ERA in the Sally League.  He had a stellar 3.81 K/BB ratio, with a superb 2.2 BB/9, but his 8.4 K/9, while good for the league, is not all that special if he wants to make the majors, though it should be noted that most of the hitters had 2 more years of experience over him and thus as he catches up in age to the competition, he should see improvement.  And at 20, he's got a lot of time to develop as he rises through the minors.
• RHP Chris Heston:  24 YO Heston is one of those prospects who will need to prove it at every level he rises to.  And he certainly did in AA, 2.24 ERA in 25 starts, 3.38 K/BB ratio, good 2.4 BB/9 and OK 8.2 K/9, and stellar 0.1 HR/9, as his over 50% GB% rate over his career:  60% in Rookie in 2009, 57% in Augusta in 2010, 58% in San Jose in 2011, and 53% in Richmond in 2012.  The large dip in AA in 2012 suggests that he's started to lose his advantage over the hitters already, so 2013 will be a big test for him when he gets to tackle AAA and see if he can adjust to the higher level of competition.
• MI Nick Noonan:  23 YO Noonan has been my pet favorite for a number of years now.  After his stellar second half in San Jose a few years back, where he showed a lot of batting skills, being able to reduce his strikeout rate a lot while also getting more walks than strikeouts for about half the season, I hew to the Baseball Forecaster truism that once a hitter shows a skill, he owns it, then it becomes a matter of showing that skill again consistently.  He has not done it for a couple of years after that, but he showed marked improvement in 2012, though part of that appears due to a high BABIP that is similar to what he put up when he first turned pro, but not even close compared to his numbers the past three seasons.  
• OF Juan Perez:  26 YO Perez was too old to be a valid prospect in AA in 2012, but he showed some improvement in his batting discipline, cutting down on his strikeouts in 2012 vs. 2011 and before, and his contact rate, while not quite there yet (that is >= 85%) was very close at 82.4%, and I think that is the main reason he got added.  His batting line was a nice .302/.341/.441/.782, but as you can see, he don't get many walks, so he will need to hit and well if he hopes to stick in the majors.  Improving his contact rate a bit more would help him get there, that plus his power to go with good enough speed that helps him steal bases (but his technique is sadly lacking, as his CS is very high).

These players were added in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft process, which will be conducted on December 6th at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.

ogc thoughts

Obviously, with so many spots still open on the 40 man roster, the Giants appear to be hoping to add Scutaro and Pagan, though the latter appears to be slipping away, both because of years and salary, and because the Giants already have Gregor Blanco as a viable CF candidate.  The Giants are clearly intending for Gary Brown to be their future CF, and a long term contract with Pagan could mean that he could be pushed to LF at some point once Brown is ready.   Brown should start 2013 in AAA and could be ready to come up sometime in the 2013-14 seasons time frame.  And at the money he appears to be rumored to be getting, the only way he can produce such value is if he played CF.

Meanwhile, as DrB elaborated nicely on at his blog and which I've touched on in my comments here and there,  Blanco gives the Giants a lot of flexibility in terms of whatever moves they make regarding the outfield for the 2013 season.  Him plus that both Kieschnick and Peguero appear to be ready to compete for either a starting OF spot, or more likely, a utility OF spot, and perhaps two spots if Blanco is starting CF and the Giants sign a LF who can replace Pagan's hitting.  Thus, Pagan is nice to have but not as much of a necessity as re-signing Scutaro.

Though Scutaro is also not as necessary to get either if the Giants can retain Ryan Theriot.  I assume Theriot is hoping to land a starting spot somewhere but if not, the Giants will welcome him back to the bench as MI utility.  But if nobody was offering last off-season, I don't really see anyone doing that this off-season either.  Though even he is not necessary, as Joaquin Arias looks like he is a good utility MI, and Nick Noonan looks like he has been groomed to take on a utility MI role, like Burriss was, by getting a lot of starts in the minors at 2B and SS.

If the 25 man roster were to be selected today, here is the ones I would think would be chosen:

• Starters:  Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito
• Relievers:  Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Kontos, Mijares, and Runzler/Otero
• Starting Position:  Posey, Belt, Arias, Sandoval, Crawford, Kieschnick, Blanco, Pence
• Bench:  Sanchez, Arias, Gillaspie, Pill, Peguero

I think the relievers are pretty set but that some vets will be invited to compete for the final reliever spot with Runzler and Otero who are most likely to contend from the 40 man.  Machi will be in the mix as well, and I think that this is probably Heath Hembree's to lose, though I would not count out Brett Bochy either, as a dark horse candidate.  I would put Jacob Dunnington in the mix as well.

The Giants clearly need upgrades at 2B and LF/CF (since Blanco could play either) and will likely sign a vet to start at both positions.  The bench also needs upgrades over Gillaspie (as we need another utility MI) and Pill.  Peguero, after his nice showing last September, look ready to take a spot as a 4th OF, though another year of seasoning in AAA would not hurt either, so expect veteran OF's to be invited to camp, probably including a $1-3M veteran free agent at some point.

However, I would note from past observations that the Giants like to keep a spot open for prospects who appear like they might be ready to compete for a starting spot, so I expect LF to be kept open, with Blanco either starting in CF or, if a vet CF is signed, be the lead competitor for the LF starting spot, in competition with Kieschnick, Peguero, and probably at least one vet OF (Nady?).

Overall, the Giants look in pretty good shape for a good run at defending their title in 2013.  I'm very happy with where they are right now, though I would have preferred that Scutaro been signed by now, as every day he is not signed, is a sign that other teams are showing him enough interest to lure him away.   I think Arias is doable starting at 2B for us for the first half, with possible upgrade mid-season from Noonan or another mid-season trade for an MI.  I would love to have Theriot here again as main utility MI and starting 2B placeholder until mid-season if necessary.  I am fine with Blanco in CF and leading off, he's had an above average OBP for much of career and that is the most important thing to look for out of leadoff, plus he has great defensive skills and great speed as well.

MLB.com's 2012 Giants Top 20 Prospects: Post-season Edition

The MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo publishes a Top 100 Overall and Top 20 by Team ranking both before the season as well as after.  He just released the post-season rankings.  The Top 100 is here.  The 2012 Giants Top 20 is here.

Your 2012 Giants: Trade for Marco Scutaro

It has been reported by Schulman and Baggs that the Giants acquired Marco Scutaro from the Rockies for Charlie Culberson.  They also get some cash to offset Marco's salary, which is roughly $2M for the rest of the season from what I read.

Your 2011 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

And, frankly, most people who do these sort of stuff focus a significant amount of their ranking on whether a player is able to make the majors that season or not.  So, to be a little different, I try to focus more on the future potential rather than closeness to the majors, partly because that is the fun of prospect watching, part because I don't observe any of the prospects on the field, as others do.

What I do provide is my thoughts and analysis after reading through various available sources of information regarding the Giants prospects, including all the lists out there (which was captured quite nicely by Crazy Crabbers here).  And, as noted, I lean more towards potential than closeness to the majors.

And to add to the Crabber's bounty, here is the Minor League Baseball Analyst's Top 15:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
3. Francisco Peguero, OF
4. Gary Brown, OF
5. Thomas Neal, OF
6. Charlie Culberson, 2B
7. Tommy Joseph, C
8. Jarrett Parker, OF
9. Brandon Crawford, SS
10. Jose Casilla, RHP
11. Chuckie Jones, OF
12. Ehire Adrianza, SS
13. Michael Main, RHP
14. Heath Hembree, RHP
15. Chris Dominguez, 3B

I love reading the Minor League Baseball Analyst, whole-heartedly recommend it.

2011 Giants Big 6 Prospects

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2011 is different again, just like 2009 and 2010, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.  And 2010 had a number of excellent picks in Brown, Parker, Rosin, Hembree, Kickham, Chuckie Jones,

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 2 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the four three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2011:

1. Brandon Belt:  He is the best by far, has a lot of potential plus he's basically in the majors sooner than later.  His story is well known:  Giants overdraft in Round 5 where many thought closer to Round 10, the former pitcher had his swing reworked suing new video tool leading to him leading the minors in a number of stats across the three levels he played in 2010, including AAA.  Showing surprising stolen-base prowess to go with power, he used the whole field while being disciplined enough to take walks at high rates.  Some have called him a left-handed Buster Posey and Will Clark said that Belt has a better swing than he did.  Should be in the heart of the Giants lineup for most of this decade, the Decade of the Giants, hitting for good (20-25 HR) power and average (plus high OBP), probably in the #5 spot (Sandoval, Posey, Belt).
2. Zack Wheeler:  He is the best pitcher by far, in a system left almost barren by quick promotions of pitchers in recent seasons.  He would be more highly ranked on most Top 100 overall prospect lists if he did not miss half the season due to a torn fingernail; yet, still, many ranked him roughly in the 50-75 range in their Top 100 list.  High strikeout rates due to mid-to-high 90's heater, he also got an extremely high percentage of ground balls.  He also has a good slider and power curveball.  Good mechanics seals the deal, he's a potential #1 starter.  Belt only beats him out because Belt is SOOO close to making the majors.  
3. Gary Brown:  With speed to challenge anyone - he reportedly can get to 1B (as RHB) as fast as the best LHB - he can get to many balls in CF that other cannot.  This also helps in elevating his BABIP plus is handy for stealing bases with abandon.  Most analysts said that he's plus plus in defense in CF but that his jittery batting stance scared off most teams despite him leading the Big West in OPS, not just last year, but over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria's breakout season (his ISO also beat out Longoria too).  The major negative that anyone can throw at him is his lack of walks in 2010 in college, but they are ignoring his high walk totals when he was not that good a hitter his first season on college and the walks he got, albeit small samples, but still a significant percentage, in pro ball in 2010:  he had 6 walks in only 54 PA, that's 11%, which is good.  He's my guy to watch for 2011, I think he will prove that he knows how to take walks plus do all the other stuff the experts say he can, and if so, he can rise fast, like Belt in 2010 and Sandoval in 2008, and be pushing for the majors by season's end.
4. Francisco Peguero:  I've never been impressed with him but the major prospect services have, so I have paid attention to him.  Baseball America says that he has the best blend of power and speed in the Giants system.  He has plus plus speed, which helps him provide plus plus defense.  With Brown around, he's probably headed for RF, which he has played in the minors.  Doesn't walk a lot, but like Sandoval coming up the minors, he has kept his strikeout rate down low against pitchers much older than he is, so that bodes well for him climbing up to the majors.  His coverage of the plate has been very good, as he exhibits good bat speed.  He'll be in AA in 2011, most likely, but could be pushing for the majors by season's end with another good season.
5. Heath Hembree:  Reported 100 MPH in college, the Giants fixed up something with the RHP's delivery and he went from walking 18 in 29 IP in college to outright dominating in the Arizona League, striking out 22 in only 11 IP, but more importantly, 0, zero, nil, nada, walks.  BA says that he profiles as a premium closer and that is what I'm thinking too.  Brian Wilson won't last forever nor stay here forever, so Hembree would be someone we could groom to take over in 2-3 seasons, should Wilson not be around at that point.  At worse, Hembree could be a shutdown set-up guy, which can be almost equally valuable sometimes.  
6. Rafael Rodriguez:  He is on this list because he's a true 5-tool talent.  As much as people want to complain about his 2010 season, that was his 17 YO season, and it would be too much to expect him to dominate out of the chute, especially since he's playing against much older guys, most 2-4 years older than he is (and more experienced).  Yet, his strikeout rate is not that high, around 19%, which means a contact rate of 81% when you ideally want to see the batter at 85% or above.  That should come with time and experience.  His power too.  Meanwhile, he's learning the nuances of fielding and with his strong arm and his speed, he probably could play any of the OF positions when he reaches the majors.  He's expected to make his full season debut in 2011 in low-A Augusta.

Now I can see people scratching their head about the last two.  Again, I lean towards potential and not closeness to the majors.  If the majors were valued more in this ranking a lot of other players would have been in the mix, for as noted, the Giants have been doing well in stocking the farm with players with potential in recent drafts and they are rising up close to the majors soon.  They will be my honorary mentions, basically in order.

Honorary Mentions

• Nick Noonan:  He didn't break out like I thought he would last season, but he was hampered by recurring hamstring problems.  Also, they redid his batting mechanics, using the same video system they used to redo Belt's and the results were very positive:  he started driving the ball and generating better bat speed.  The Giants are talking about moving him back to SS, and if he can field decently there, his offense would carry the day. I think he's someone to keep a close eye on, as well as Brown, they could be pushing on the majors by season end, even if he ends up back at 2B, I think he's on the verge of putting it together as a batter.  Probably repeats AA, but could join bottleneck in AAA by season's end, on merit.
• Ehire Adrianza:  In the past decade, he probably would have made the list, but the team's system is deepening, as I noted.  He reportedly could field SS in the majors now but his offense is what he needs to improve on.  Still, people need to remember, he was only 20 YO last season in a league of 22-24 YO pitchers, and yet he still held his own with the bat, 20% strikeouts/80% contact rate: remember, San Jose's background ups strikeout rate for hitters.  And he gets a good amount of walks too and flashes the speed to use them to steal bases.  He's probably going to repeat in SJ, particularly if Noonan is at SS in AA.
• Brandon Crawford:  Also with major league ready defense at SS, like Ehire, he just strikes out way too much.  Breaking his hand didn't help either.  Maybe he'll try out the new video system and take a leap, like Belt and Noonan.  Should be SS in AAA for 2011.  
• Tommy Joseph:  Probably best power-hitting prospect and he did not disappoint, 16 HR in 436 AB as 18 YO in low-A Augusta, but struck out a lot too with few walks.  C but a lot to learn and scouts felt 1B was his eventual position. 
• Thomas Neal:  The projection systems love him, think he can be solid regular starting OF this season in majors.  He took slight step back in 2010, but I blame EL for sapping his power, which was his plus tool, much like how Ishikawa suffered there (and Crawford, for that matter).  I think he'll be better in AAA playing LF, where he'll probably be in 2011.  
• Eric Surkamp:  He's healthy and looking to continue where he left off:  leading Giants minor leaguers in strikeouts again.  Got to love anyone with more than 1 K per inning and K/BB of almost 5, but since he's doing it as a polished pitcher, and not via one or two great knockout/strikeout pitch, he'll have to prove it at every level, like Pucetas.  I would expect him to start in AA and to move fast to AAA, he could be our 6th starter alternative by then if he continues to dominate like this.  
• Charlie Culberson:  Breakout season, finally (and remember, only 21 YO in 2010), continued doing well in AFL.  Now he has to repeat, probably plays 2B in AA, but very exciting burst of power, would be great to have at 2B (or maybe even 3B, where he played in 2009).
• Chuckie Jones:  Had great start to pro career with an offensive explosion but 61 strikeouts in 165 AB is a huge question mark.  Still, hit very well as 17 YO in AZL, 2-4 years younger and less experienced, so I would cut him huge slack on the strikeouts for now.  Huge power potential, idolized Pujols growing up, grew up in area, St. Louis was ready to draft in next round.  That's why better for teams to overdraft players they like than risk losing to another team.
• Jarrett Parker:  5 tool potential put him high on some Giants prospect lists.  Nice package overall, still have to see more, as he had a down season in college in 2010.

There are many other prospects who I would normally at least produce a blurb on, but I've been busy lately and don't have time. DrB has a very good list at his site, and just continue reading all the stuff he followed that up with, lots of great info there.

As I noted before, the sad fact about prospects is that the vast majority will fail to become a major leaguer at any point, and an even smaller percentage ever become the starters we all love and follow.   That's part of the reason I keep my list to 6, it is just so hard to make the majors as a starter that the Top 6 typically are those who make it.  Still, part of the fun of prospect hounding is when prospects like Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, rise up the system fast and make the majors.  Unfortunately, there is no way to know who will make that rise, you have to monitor and observe and hope for the best.

Sad Story of Angel:  Continued

Unfortunately, sometimes real life intrudes on our revelry.  Angel Villalona, who probably would have made the list somewhere this season, if not for his murder charge, is still being prosecuted for the murder that he was accused of doing.  His visa has been revoked and I believe he was able to post bail and stay out of jail, living with his family, while the preparations for the trial continues.

Until there is a gun with his fingerprints on it, I don't see how he will get convicted, as there are as many people saying he shot the fatal shot as there are people who swear to his innocence because he was near them when the firing happened.  Too many people on both sides for the truth to be exposed in the courtroom.

The odd thing is that if he is able to be found not guilty, assuming the trial is over sometime this year, he'll still be only 21 YO for next season and probably would be OK in San Jose, eventually, once he goes through instructional league to get back into baseball shape.  However, given how fat he got previously as a pro, I would fear that he has gain a tremendous amount of weight while sitting around in jail and now at home.

Give Bob Mariano a Long-Term Contract NOW, STAT!

I will admit first that when the Giants hired Bob Mariano as the hitting coordinator for the Giants farm system, my reaction was "Meh, another failed minor league hitter becoming a hitting instructor, he didn't even make the majors, what is he going to teach our hitters?"  Then the great Andy Baggarly wrote an article about the geniuses behind Brandon Belt's transformation and, Frank Viola, I've turned 180 degrees on Bob, give him a long term contract now before another team tries to steal him.

Until recently, it hasn't been hard for a hitter to get ahead in the Giants' system. It's the biggest criticism of Sabean's 15-year tenure: In all that time, the Giants haven't drafted and developed a single position player to represent the club as an All-Star. The dry spell mostly had to do with poor draft position, including an ownership directive to punt the occasional pick and steer bonus savings to the major league payroll during the Barry Bonds era. 

The few decent hitting prospects to enter the Giants' system -- Todd Linden, Dan Ortmeier, Lance Niekro, etc. -- all seemed to wash out, collecting like driftwood in a tide pool. 

Posey, the fifth overall pick in 2008, illustrated the value of drafting high. And Belt is poised to represent a triumph for a rebounding player-development system. 

In just one season, farm director Fred Stanley and hitting coordinator Bob Mariano helped Belt transform himself from a lightly regarded college senior with a crouched, closed stance and metal-bat swing to a hard-hitting force who flew through the system. 

"When I got to (instructional league), I knew something would change with my stance," said Belt, a fifth-round pick in 2009 out of the University of Texas. "I wasn't sure what was going to happen. Bobby Mariano worked with me every day, raised my hands, opened me up a little bit. That completely changed my entire world right there. I was able to see the ball better. I was able to pull the ball, hit it the other way -- pretty much everything. 

"They're doing that with everybody now." 

Mariano uses a subscriber-based video system that can freeze-frame a young player's swing and compare it, point by point, to major league hitters. It's a way to persuade struggling prospects to change a hitting style that might have served them well in college or high school. 

Mariano said he breaks down tape of All-Stars such as Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Joey Votto to demonstrate "the importance of what we describe as being 'short to long.' Keep that barrel in the zone a little longer so you don't have to be perfect." 

It's a valuable tool. No matter how good a piece of advice might be, it won't do any good if the player doesn't fully buy into it. 

Belt bought in from Day 1. And now Mariano has an even better visual aid to show the kids on the farm. 

He has Belt and Posey right in front of him. 

"Brandon Belt has the best pitch recognition I've seen in my six years here," Mariano said. "Just great aptitude. He's like Buster in that he's able to make adjustments from pitch to pitch, from at-bat to at-bat. He sets up like Posey. The hands and center of gravity are the same."

One of the interesting techniques to teaching that I recall is using visualization, and I've heard of the use of this to help hitters become better.  The idea is that seeing a good hitter or video of when you yourself perform a good swing, over and over, will result in muscle memory recall that will result in better swings when you actually swing in game situation.  I recall one of the A's hitters really behind that technology but I don't see a lot of mention about it in the interviews I read.  Mitchell Boggs is the name that comes to mind, but I think that's the name of a pitcher in the Cards farm system, so maybe it was that first name (oh, Mitchell Page?).  Anyway, I'm a believer in visualization and that is part of the functionality of this subscriber-based video system they are using to freeze-frame and break down swings, which is not mentioned in the article.

Obviously, the main functionality is enabling prospects to see how the good hitters do it.  As noted above, Mariano has broke down the swings of hitters like Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto, to demonstrate "the importance of what we describe as being 'short to long.' Keep that barrel in the zone a little longer so you don't have to be perfect."  And, of course, now they have Posey and Belt as examples, which will probably drill the point home even stronger for the prospects, as they are people they actually played with and would feel free to talk with them about how they do it.

Of course, it would be even better if they did this with Barry Bonds' swing.

Nick Noonan Excitement

What I  was also really excited about was the start of the article by Baggarly, which noted prospect Nick Noonan:

Nick Noonan hit a wall. Once a top prospect on the fast track, he had a miserable year at Double-A Richmond that included a stubborn hamstring injury and a badly bruised psyche.
He went to the Giants' instructional league in September determined to remake his swing. And he knew what template to use. 

"I watched Brandon Belt," Noonan said. "I raised my hands. I opened up my stance. I started tucking my front knee to get my weight back. It's 180 degrees for me. I think I'll be able to drive the ball this year."

He was one of the prospects I was really high on last season, but he had a really down season.  However, one of the rules Ron Shandler's books have taught me is that once a prospect exhibits a skill, he owns it.  The crucial thing after he owns it is whether he can repeat it again, it is there, but it just needs to be brought out of him.

Noonan exhibited the good discipline of a good hitter in the second half of the 2009 season, taking a lot of walks and not striking out much, and this new tool appears to have helped him.  Hopefully 2011 will be the season I was seeing for Noonan in 2010 before failure and injury ended it.

Other Prospects to Watch

And there is nothing like a guy breaking out like Brandon Belt will do for encouraging the rest of the Giants farm system's hitters to at least try out the system.  Noonan, if he improves as he suggests in his comments, would cement that inclination and motivation, I would think.

Other hitters who have exhibited the ability to avoid strikeouts well, besides Noonan, include Emmanuel Burriss, Ehire Adrianza, and Rafael Rodriguez (EME was good but he went free agent last off-season and I think he signed with the Mariners).  There are others, I'm sure, but these came to mind first and I don't have time to research all the others, maybe another day in a follow-up post.  But these guys are the ones high up the system whereby we might see results this season in terms of breakouts.

It would be great if either Noonan or Burriss breaks out like Belt because that would fill out starting 2B need in 2012 after Sanchez's contract ends.  Basically, from a financial viewpoint, the Giants will have to let go of all their bigger paid veterans in order to be able to afford to keep most of their young stars like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson, Sandoval, Posey beyond their 6 years of control.

Burriss is the closest and the one thing holding him back, well, besides getting injured all the time, is his inability to hit for power.  True, if he could take walks, that would help too, but if that hasn't happened by now, it is probably not going to happen.  However, power is a matter of technique and bringing that out of him.  Carney Lansford tried hard to convert him but failed and went back to the Rox, crying about his experiences here.  But he noted that Burriss has very strong forearms which Burriss was not using at all in his swings, resulting in very little power.

From a hitting perspective, it is the difference between Andres Torres before the Giants and Torres with the Giants.  He was an admitted "slap" hitter because coaches he had didn't know any better, saw a guy with flying speed and taught him to slap at the ball in order to get on base and use his speed.  He realized his time in the pros was nearing an end if he didn't change things.  He sought out the advice of a swing coach, who basically taught him Ted William's methodology from his book, and now, while he does strike out way too much, he gets on base adequately overall and, more importantly, hits with good power.  Burriss should really be bothering Andres all the time and picking his brains, he would be a good template to follow, because he's fast approaching the point at which Torres made his drastic change for the better.

Noonan, however, has exhibited the ability to take walks, part of his difficulties has been that he has been much younger and less experienced than the players he's been playing against.  Nothing wrong with that, many players are like that, probably means he won't be a star, but he can still be a very solid regular if he can put things together and a team can always use players like that.  Contrary to many fans' demands, not every player on a roster has to be a star for the team to win or to win the World Series.

Ehire is perhaps more critical because we will need a shortstop who can hit well enough to go with his superb fielding.  Both Crawford and Adrianza got the glove, but they need to show the hitting.  Ehire has shown the discipline before in an age appropriate league, but he has struggled relatively since, though nothing as bad as Crawford.  If this training can bring his hitting out, we should give Bob a lifetime contract.

Rafael Rodriguez is more of a long term project but he could zoom up fast if he picks up things fast.  5 tool prospect who has shown good ability when playing against guys his age and experience range, he hasn't looked as good in recent seasons facing older competition.  His big minus right now is power, but recall that Sandoval didn't start showing his power until he turned 22.  RafRod is still only 18 and most scouts feel that his power will come with age.

A better hitter than Angel Villalona (how good our system would look today if only...), in terms of avoiding strikeouts, RafRod could zoom up the system if he can use this technology to leapfrog the competition.  His ability to hit was the only tool that scouts really were in disagreement about, not all felt that he would solve that.  It sounds like this system might help him with that.

I guess another this system might help is Conor Gillaspie, who is known for being more of a pure hitter but one who didn't hit for much power.  If he could boost his power, that would make him more of a candidate to move up to 3B in the majors, and particularly 2B, which is the position many feel he would end up at when he was drafted.

Great Giants Accepting of Different Ways of Doing Things

It is very exciting to hear that the Giants are getting into such technology.  Whoever is responsible for this, whether Neukom, Sabean, or Mariano, should get credit for trying bleeding edge stuff like this, which as I noted, is really just improvements on prior technology and techniques, like the A's hitter I noted.  However, visualization is not an accepted technique, there are those who do not believe that this works,

Hopefully the success of Belt will be followed by other successes, maybe Noonan, maybe others, and more prospects will be willing to give this a shot.  It will probably not work for everyone, but being open to different ways of doing things is a good trait to have, you just need to move on to the next thing if that don't work for you.  Still, I'm excited enough that if Mariano is responsible for bringing this into our farm system, I hope the Giants give him security in a long-term contract sooner than later.

Especially before Sheriff Ned, Giants-wannabe, tries to hire Mariano away.

Your 2010 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2010 is different again, just like 2009, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 3 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the final three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

2010 Big 6 Giants Prospect

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2010:

1. Buster Posey: Just showed everything he was expected to be (unfortunately on the defensive side) plus more power than expected. He looks on track to be our catcher from 2011-2016 and hopefully with some more development, he will be ready to be one of our best hitters in our lineup, maybe hitting 3rd and Sandoval cleanup.
2. Madison Bumgarner: Disappointing season only because his velocity went down. Still, despite that, he was still able to strike out major league hitters at a high rate for us in September. I think even if he don't recover his velocity, he can become an ace-quality starter for us. If he does get the velocity, Lincecum and him would pair off as one of the best righty-lefty combo the majors have seen in my lifetime, harking back to the D-gers Koufax-Drysdale combo.
3. Zach Wheeler: Always hard to say with someone who has not thrown an officially recorded professional pitch yet, but all the reports I've seen on him plus rankings, make me comfortable in saying he's third. He's a high schooler who can already reach mid-90's easily and already shows three plus pitches at times: fastball, breaking ball, changeup. However, he'll be 20 YO for this season, as it appears he was held back a year and didn't graduate until he was 19. Still, he projects as a(nother!) front-line potential pitcher, and is more advanced than Bumgarner was coming out of high school.
4. Tommy Joseph: Some had Neal here but as nicely as he did in San Jose last season, that doesn't translate to a great major leaguer, at least not yet. Joseph's bat is seen by some as good enough for 1B, which is a high threshold, so he is highly regarded, particularly for his power. Add to that, he's playing at premium position, catcher, which makes his hitting that much better. However, he, like Posey, is new to catching, so he probably has a lot to learn, though at least he has a great arm. In an ideal scenario, he works his way up the Giants minors, one level at a time, starting with Augusta this season, and by the time he's ready to play in the majors, maybe he and Posey can swap off catching duties while sharing 1B, or if Panda is there by then because of his size, Posey probably could start at almost any other position (3B?) while Joseph would catch most games with Posey as backup and Sandoval as third backup.
5. Thomas Neal: Had a breakout year in San Jose after missing almost the whole 2007 season due to injury and only doing OK in 2008. He has some power and can take a walk, though he also strikes out too much still and don't have any speed, and thus range in the OF. A great year in Richmond AA this season would vault him into the Top 3, though that is partly because Posey and Bumgarner most probably will not be eligible for the list next season, Posey for sure, Bumgarner maybe.
6. Rafael Rodriguez: Like last season, this was tough to chose, but I went with RafRod. He is a 5-tool guy with plus plus power potential and plus speed and defense, and he knows how to take a walk. One book thinks that he could become a CF, which is a premium position to have both hitting and power, especially plus power. That is a tough package to beat. He did OK in rookie league, hitting .299/.392/.362/.754, with the only negative being a tick too many strikeouts and no power, but given all the walks, I think as he catches up in age and experience to others, he should be able to reduce his strikeouts, and at 6' 5" already, his power will eventually come as he fills out. Like Villalona and Noonan before, he'll be a young buck in Augusta, only 17 officially for the season (turns 18 in July), so he might again strikeout a bit, but I think he will do better than Villalona and Noonan in that regard, I just wonder if any power will show up.

Honorable Mentions

I still want to note other names, plus maybe a comment or three, because we have so many players who could become something but have obstacles of some sort:

• Dan Runzler: Looks like he can be a good closer eventually, his main problem is giving up too many walks. Our bullpen should be golden with Wilson, Affeldt, Romo, and him.
• Nick Noonan: He is the dark horse I would recommend people keep an eye out for. His main knock has been his lack of plate discipline, his one big skill when he was drafted, but he apparently was just a tick behind the pitchers until the last two months of last season, when suddenly he went from striking out 20+ times a month to keeping his BB/K ratio over the 1.0 ratio you want to see from a good hitter and his K-rate comfortably under 10%. That plus using his speed to get more stolen bases, and he should be ready to take over 2B when Sanchez's contract is over.
• Ehire Adrianza: He's already considered good enough to field SS in the majors, the main question is his bat. With no power, his ticket will be getting on base and stealing a lot of bases. He hasn't shown the SB-ability yet, but he has been good at taking walks and not striking out a lot, just a tick more than we would like to see, but he was 19 facing mostly 21-23 YO in Augusta last season. Giving his advanced understanding of the strike zone, he should continue to rise as he catches up with the pitches physically and experientially. These three could have been 6th (if not higher) easily almost any other year.
• Roger Kieschnick: Great first pro season, but he just strikes out so much that I'm worried that will be his downfall in higher levels. If he solves that, he'll be a five-tool guy who could hit in the middle of the lineup for us. Even if he doesn't, if he can continue to hit like that at every level, he'll be a great 5th or 6th hitter for us.
• Brandon Crawford: He's also considered good enough to field SS in the majors, and the Giants came out and called him the SS of the future. He was en fuego in San Jose last year but totally lost in AA after his promotion. He'll probably be there this year, and perhaps playing in a better park in Richmond will help him do better, Connecticut's Dodd Stadium could screw with a player's head, particularly one where power is a strong part of his offensive game. Still, strikes out way too much, something he must solve to make the majors.
• Waldis Joaquin: Until his TJS, he was rated a potential #2 starter, but now he's probably a setup/closer. With mid-90's heat, he definitely got the chops to be closer-worthy at some point. He walks a little too much, but strikes out a heck of a lot. He will be in the bullpen equation the next few years. He had a great spring and is battling for the final relief spot.
• Henry Sosa: He's also battling for the final relief spot with his great spring. He was a top rated prospect a couple of years ago, but injuries have held back his progress and potential. Still, he throws mid-90's heat, and did not walk that many batters the last two seasons, a good sign. A bad sign was his greatly reduced K/9 in 2009, perhaps the only thing to keep him from the majors.
• Jason Stoffel: Our steal in the 2009 draft, he did not disappoint last season, with a great fastball. A college closer, I'm not sure that he'll be able to do that in the majors, but he doesn't walk much while striking out a lot, which is good no matter what in the bullpen, and he should rise fast.
• Darren Ford: Never thought I would write about him here, because last season was his third in just Advanced A, and he's done poorly but he had a great second half of 2009 and a great spring with us. Defensively ready (an oft-repeated characterization for Giants prospects) for MLB CF, he has plus plus speed that he can utilize for SB when he is able to get on base. As he is already 24, he will have to continue hitting like that in AA Richmond Flying Squirrels to keep it going - unlikely because even while hitting well, his strikeout rate was still very high and his BABIP was very high too, though I would note that he used to have high BABIP early in his career too, it only got low in Advanced A the prior two seasons. Still a very high BABIP though, so he'll probably falter somewhere up the ladder, but if he can solve it like he did last season, he could be ready soon.
• Angel Villalona: His murder trial is now at least scheduled to be reviewed by a judge this month. His potential is still there and he's only 20 YO, so this could just be a very horrific bump in the road. It will never be known by outsiders what exactly happened, so as long as he is found not guilty or the trial is dropped, he should be able to continue his career in the U.S., though hopefully he will move his family to Californy, though not to Beverly Hills, hopefully some place like San Jose, CA, since that is probably where he should go back to if he returns back to professional baseball. Unless there is something stronger than a "he said, she said" situation - and there has been no news about finding the weapon or any connection between Angel and the weapon, other than they both were at the bar - he should be released by the judge for insufficient evidence or the trial would be relatively quick.

2010 Spring Training Cuts

Hank Schulman captured the hitters cut yesterday and Andy Baggarly covered the pitchers today.

The hitters:

• Brett Pill, 1B
• Ehire Adrianza, SS
• Wendell Fairley, CF
• Johnny Monell, C
• Thomas Neal, OF
• Nick Noonan, 2B
• Hector Sanchez, C
• Jackson Williams, C

The pitchers:

• Craig Clark
• Rafael Cova
• Steve Edlefsen
• Eric Hacker
• Osirus Matos
• Clayton Tanner
• Dan Turpen
• Craig Whitaker

Plus, Steven Johnson, our Rule 5 draft pick passed through waivers and was offered back to the Orioles, who presumably will take him back, if not already.

None were surprising to my mind. Schulman noted the following, however, about Pill:

The only mild surprise is Pill, because I was told he would get a long look this spring. But that was before Aubrey Huff's defensive deficiencies became so apparent, prompting the team to give Buster Posey and John Bowker some longer looks at first base. Pill needs to get his work in the minor-league camp.

According to Baseball America, Pill is the best defensive firstbaseman in the Giants farm system, so that makes sense that they would want to look at him longer. However, as nicely as he did in AA last season, he was a 24 YO in a league averaging 24 YO and did not stand out from the crowd offensively. Only the best of the best in the league will move on to the majors and be successful.

For example, in 2008, Pablo Sandoval hit .337/.364/.549/.913, good for 9th in the EL. He was 21 YO. Wieters led the league in OPS and was 22 YO. None of the other "leaders" in the EL in OPS were highly thought of prospects, and age had to do with it. Only Nick Evans of the Mets (22 YO) was in the Top 10 and that young. Casper Wells (23YO) was 4th and is 16th in Detroit's system this season. Luke Hughes (23 YO) was 7th and has already fell off the Twin's prospect list.

It would have been a stretch to see Pill on the major league roster to start the season. And I suppose part of that interest to see him was driven by Ishikawa's injury with no clear take on what would happen until recently when they determined that he won't need surgery and would be ready for the season.

Meanwhile, Buster Posey continues to impress at 1B, which could be another reason Pill was sending packing (see Haft's nice article on Posey). Still, as this and other articles note, the Giants view Posey as a catcher, and Bochy's comments in this post affirm that: "I like the way he's catching. I want to keep him sharp back there." I think it is clear that Posey is the Giants catcher of the future and that the Giants will promote him when that time comes.

However, most probably that time is the second half of this season and I can see the Giants bringing up Posey and basically platoon him between C and 1B, giving Molina rests at 1B, and giving Posey AB's against LHP at 1B in place of Huff. And if they make the playoffs, he'll be a potent bat off the bench or perhaps even starting, depending on how poorly Molina and/or Huff is hitting, plus how tired Posey is, he clearly pooped out at the end of the 2009 season. And should they be lucky enough to make the World Series, he could be starting at either DH or 1B, depending on the situation regarding Huff's defense.

And that's the big news in this news blurb, that Huff's defense is causing a Giants re-think on how 1B is handled. Clearly, they need a strong defensive 1B on the bench now, meaning Posey won't cut it and Ishikawa, as long as he is healthy enough, will be that strong defensive 1B. Prior defensive stats (like UZR and Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus) suggested that Huff might have been OK enough there (about -0.5 wins) to warrant giving up the defense for his bat, but clearly there is some worry there now. And greater need for keeping someone like Ishikawa around all season for 2010, even though he's also a lefty and cannot really play any other position.

2010 Giants Prospects: The Experts View

OK, the various Giants top prospects lists have been trickling in and with BP's Future Shock coming in yesterday, I'm going to go over the lists.

Baseball Prospectus Top 11

Five-Star Prospects
1. Buster Posey, C
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP

Four-Star Prospects
3. Zach Wheeler, RHP

Three-Star Prospects
4. Dan Runzler, LHP
5. Ehire Adrianza, SS
6. Rafael Rodriguez, RF
7. Thomas Neal, OF
8. Roger Kieschnick, OF
9. Tommy Joseph, C
10. Francisco Peguero, OF

Two-Star Prospects

11. Chris Dominguez, 3B

He also listed these other prospects:

12. Jason Stoffel, RHP: "stuff ... misses bats"; "could prove to be a steal"
13. Nick Noonan, 2B: "love the tools" but slow to develop
14. Darren Ford, OF: "too little, too late"?
15. Brandon Crawford, SS: "plus glove" "questions about the bat"

Giants Thoughts

Can't really argue with the first three. And I respect Kevin Goldstein's work, I have liked what I have seen before from him. But I'm not sure why Thomas Neal is down so low (unfortunately, I don't subscribe, so I don't know why he was placed down so low). He really had a breakout type of year. I suppose a large part of it is his strikeout rate not being as good as you want to see from a hitter. But it was not that bad either and he walks a lot to compensate for it, as well as hit for HR power.

Perhaps he didn't want to jump on the bandwagon after just one good year, particularly since his BABIP was so high (oops, didn't catch that before, my bad). However, as I noted, his strikeout rate was greatly affected by his home park, Municipal Stadium in San Jose. His strikeout rate was good on the road and he walked more times than he struck out too. So while the BABIP is high there as well, the fact is that he has had a high BABIP his whole minor league career (.353) and hitters tend to regress to his own level of BABIP, not to the overall .300 that pitchers regress to (which is the general talent level of hitters).

Still, the MLE for his road numbers are not the best either, so that is a sign that he still have some development to do still, and he benefited from hitting more homers at home than on the road, which is a bad sign regarding his power. Richmond will be a great test to see which Neal is the real Neal.

And maybe he thinks that Runzler is great closer material, that could justify putting him above Neal. And if Adrianza can hit as well as his plate discipline while facing much older competition suggests while paired with his great defense, he would be a very valuable SS. And Rafael Rodriguez is another prospect I'll write about soon, so perhaps it is just a sign that the Giants farm system is a bit loaded now.

However, none of this is accurate because Goldstein rates all of them as only a Three-Star prospect. He's the expert, so what do I know, but it seems to me that they are at least Four-Star prospects. Runzler with the way he pitched could be a great closer, that is certainly Four-Star potential. Adrianza, I can understand, he dropped in performance in 2009 but still I thought he did well enough to not negate what was thought before. RafRod, too, I thought did well enough to suggest more of a potential, but I can see being on the fence with him since he is still young (but he wasn't so hesistant with Villalona). And Neal, I went over.

And the one prospect they do provide free, Buster Posey, he feeds into the hysteria that broke out when the Giants talked about playing Posey some at 1B. Still, he did note that Posey is staying at catcher, but the Giants were only talking about playing him at 1B when he is being rested from playing catcher, as a long-term plan to keep him in the lineup most of the season.

That would suggest that he could basically platoon with a left-handed 1B, like Travis Ishikawa or John Bowker, gettting rests at C when a LHP is the starter, allowing the Giants to benefit from a platoon style hitter (which Ishikawa is more like, Bowker not as much but still not that great either).

I think Nick Noonan is going to surprise people this season. He'll be one year more experienced and he was showing good/great plate discipline in his last two months of the 2009 season. He should also benefit from hitting in a neutral park like Richmond's vs. San Jose's poor park for hitters, which also hurt him. He also showed more power on the road, so he should be in double digits in 2010. He should be ready to take over when Sanchez's contract is over.

I would end with some comments he made in BP's Top 100 prospect list:

• #9 - Posey: "natural ability to hit .300 with 15-20 home runs a year."
• #20 - Bumgarner: "His ability to succeed with average velocity is a tribute to everything else he brings to the table. If the velocity comes back, and it should, he'll make this ranking look conservative" (FYI, probably the lowest I have seen anywhere).
• #88 - Wheeler: "He's a 6-foot-4 pure athlete who already touches 95 mph with command and tons of movement, so it will be the development of his secondary pitches that dictates his future."

Baseball America

They covered the Giants prospect a while ago and maybe I wrote on it back then, but here it is:

1. Buster Posey, c
2. Madison Bumgarner, lhp
3. Zack Wheeler, rhp
4. Thomas Neal, of
5. Dan Runzler, lhp
6. Tommy Joseph, c
7. Roger Kieschnick, of
8. Ehire Adrianza, ss
9. Brandon Crawford, ss
10. Francisco Peguero, of

Giants Thoughts

I'm OK with the ranking overall, which our local scribe, Andy Baggarly put together. I got their 2010 book (I highly recommend it for any Giants or baseball fan wanting to learn more about the minors) and I will add their next 5 as a bonus:

11. Nick Noonan, 2b
12. Rafael Rodriguez, of
13. Darren Ford, of
14. Waldis Joaquine, rhp
15. Jason Stoffel, rhp

And I would note that Angel Villalona was placed 30th with the comment that if he can resume his career - iffy at the moment given the murder trial and his visa being taken away by the U.S. - he would be one of the top five prospects in the system.

One comment that I found really interesting was this one about Conor Gillaspie: "Gillaspie's advanced knowledge of the strike zone actually might have worked against him. 'Unfortunately for him, it was a lot better than the umpires, ' San Jose manager Andy Skeels said. 'The bat was literally taken out of his hands. He easily cold've walked 30 more times.' " And he walked 58 times and struck out 68 times, both good. Still 100 ISO is nothing good, not enough for a 3B, but he could be OK at 2B, which I've seen some say he might end up at.

In BA's Top 100 Prospect list, these Giants were ranked:

• #7 - Posey: Lots of great commentary, too much too put here, but here are some snippets to whet your appetite: "draws legitimate comparisons to Joe Mauer"; "tremendous baseball athleticism"; "mental acuity is off the charts and he's a leader on the field"; "should be a perennial all-star"
• #14 - Bumgarner: "No. 1 starter potential, and his stuff would paly against big leaguers now."
• #49 - Wheeler: "projects as a front-line starter in the big leagues"; "is more advanced than Madison Bumgarner was coming out of high school"
• #96 - Neal: "became a more complete hitter in 2009"; "bat speed to turn on quality fastballs and shows extra-base power from pole to pole"

Minor League Baseball Analysts

1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Zach Wheeler
4. Tommy Joseph
5. Henry Sosa
6. Conor Gillaspie
7. Thomas Neal
8. Rafael Rodriguez
9. Angel Villalona
10. Nick Noonan
11. Brandon Crawford
12. Roger Kieschnick
13. Francisco Peguero
14. Ehire Adrianza
15. Wendell Fairley

Giants Thoughts

Deric MacKamey joined the Cardinals, so two Baseball HQ writers took over for him. I still recommend getting this book, cheap on Amazon, and if you buy it from them, they give you some extra goodies, excel datasets.

I'm surprised by how high Henry Sosa and Conor Gillaspie is, but I suppose if that comment about his zone awareness is 100% correct, then Gillaspie should get better as he rises and the umpires are better, and the pitchers would be forced to give him better pitches to hit as he will have more hitters counts with more balls being called. Plus, he also did a lot better on the road in terms of striking out and walking relative to that, almost 1:1. Given how hard it is to not strikeout in San Jose, that is usually where the hitter does worse, but he actually hit better on the road in 2009, because his BABIP was so high at home. Given his poor speed, his road BABIP is probably closer to his true talent level. Plus, according to them, he has been moved to the OF, due to his poor defense. He could be another EME redux.

For Sosa, they still believe in his plus fastball. Otherwise, I'm OK with their Top 15, though I would note that Wendell Fairley did not even make BA's Top 30, let alone Top 15. They love his speed, which is one of the best around (5 pluses in their rating system), though he did not make their Top Speed list of prospects. They think his good bat speed and average power will make him a good CF.

I really like Rafael Rodriguez and so do they. They rate him as a future starting CF! And with plus plus power, plus speed and plus defense, with "true 5-tool potential". His power should develop as he develops (he's only 17 now)

With two authors, they have two Top 100 Prospect lists:

Rob Gordon:

• #4 - Posey
• #13 - Bumgarner
• #80 - Wheeler

Jeremy Deloney:

• #4 - Bumgarner: one of the few to rate him over Posey
• #10 - Posey
• #70 - Wheeler

Some key comments:

• Posey: "better than advertised"; "Pure hitter"; "good pop and bat speed"; "at times tries to pull everything"
• Bumgarner: "#1 starter"; "good movement and easy velocity"
• Wheeler: "#1 starter"; "plus fastball and slider"; "Good mechanics and generates easy heat"; "tremendous long-term upside".

2010 Giants Non-Roster Invitees: 22 this season

This was blogged on by Henry Schulman last week, been meaning to get to it. Here is the list of names he reported on:

• Denny Bautista (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract))
• Santiago Casilla (RHP; former A's reliever, signed to minor league contract recently)
• Rafael Cova (RHP)
• Steven Edlefsen (RHP; BA rated him as best slider in 2008 annual)
• Eric Hacker (RHP)
• Osiris Matos (RHP; we dropped him from 40-man so apparently nobody claimed him and returned to us)
• Tony Pena Jr. (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract)
• Felix Romero (RHP)
• Dan Turpen (RHP)
• Craig Whitaker (RHP; top pick, been working his way up long time)
• Craig Clark (LHP)
• Clayton Tanner (LHP; local kid, been doing well, rising up, good luck!)
• Steve Holm (C; was dropped from 40-man last season when Whiteside brought up)
• Jonny Monell (C)
• Hector Sanchez (C; one of our better prospects)
• Jackson Williams (C; one of our sandwich draft picks, good/great skills, bad bat so far)
• Ehire Adrianza (SS; reported as major league ready SS skills, needs to develop hitting, still young)
• Brandon Crawford (SS; noted as SS of the future by Giants brass this off-season)
• Nick Noonan (2B/SS; hype has died down but this past season was first year he showed hitting discipline that scouts raved about when drafted, I'm very encouraged by his good improvement late in the season, but he needs to continue showing that)
• Wendell Fairley (CF; has been up and down as a prospect, but it's a good sign that they are bringing him up to spring training this year)
• Roger Kieschnick (RF; had very good first full pro season, still strikes out too much but shows all the skills he was advertised to have, very encouraging first year)
• Thomas Neal (LF, not RF as Schulman noted; breakout season, nice recovery from injury from a couple of years back, could be in majors soon if he continues hitting like that but in AA, remniscent of Pablo's rise)

Giants Thoughts

I totally and vehemently disagree with Henry Schulman's assertion that the Giants need to "develop three or four Pablo Sandovals and stick them on the field at the same time." It would obviously help, and I, of course, wouldn't mind that as that would give us one of the great teams in the history of the majors, but that is not critical to the team's success over the next few seasons. Perhaps this is why fans are so upset over the lineup, because reporters lead them to think that having so many great hitters (and Sandoval is a great hitter) in the lineup is a requirement to be successful every season in making the playoffs.

Heck, we didn't even have three or four Sandovals the year we went to the World Series (Bonds and Kent only, nobody else even broke 800 OPS).

Here is how special Sandoval was in 2009: only 6 hitters in the NL had a OPS as high as Sandoval's .943, only 4 hitters in the AL, for a total of 10 hitters in the majors, out of roughly 400 hitters. There are not that many players like Sandoval in the majors. So, no, we don't need to develop three or four Pablo Sandovals, that would be setting the bar waaay too high.

As I noted in my business plan series (linked to the side), when you have a great pitching staff, the offense does not have to be that good to win 90 games. With our defense (pitching and fielding) last season, we only needed to score 4.30 runs per game to reach 90 wins. That would have placed us comfortably 11th in the NL in 2009 (average runs scored was 4.43), behind the Washington Nationals which was 10th with 4.38 runs scored. With an average offense, we would have won 92 games.

Using Bill James projections plus our projected lineup, the Giants should score over 4.5 runs per game. To win 92 games averaging 4.5 runs scored, our defense would need a runs allowed average of 3.83, just slightly above last year's 3.77.

But James's projections tend to be on the high side, from what I recall. CHONE won for "best" projection for their 2008 projections, if I remember right. Using CHONE's projections, the Giants should score over 4.4 runs per game. If they did that, the Giants defense would have to allow 3.73 runs per game, or slightly better than last year's figure.

And I think that it is safe to assume something similar to last year's. Lincecum should be about the same. Any regression by Cain and/or Zito should be offset by Sanchez pitching well for a season (4.24 ERA overall but 5.54 ERA as starter before no-hitter and 3.46 ERA starting from no-hitter, and even without the no-hitter, he had a 3.83 ERA afterward, plus maturation and confidence and development for 2010, when he'll be 27 YO) and improvements in the #5 starter, whether Bumgarner or whoever, as our other starters (other then the four we have for 2010) had a 4.62 ERA collectively in 2009. Defensively, we take a big hit with Huff at 1B, but DeRosa and Sanchez are pretty good in the OF and 2B, respectively, which should balance things there. Plus Renteria's arm should be better with the surgery and Sandoval should be better with one more season of experience.

But I do agree vociferously with most of the rest of Schulman's post. "The Giants have taken the first step with some good position-playing drafts." I also agree with the Giants front office assertion that Baseball America was ill-informed when it criticized their system before, particularly in 2007 and 2008 when Sandoval was doing well but BA didn't think enough of him to put him in the Giants Top 30 prospects list.

I also whole heartedly agree that "Fans need some patience." Fans have not been patient. This is a long term process, and worrying that this might be the only year we can capitalize on Lincecum et al is fatalistic and shows lack of confidence, which I suppose is only fitting because these fans show no confidence in Sabean despite the great job he has done with the pitching staff. I, for one, am glad the Giants are taking the long view with regards to their strategy and not signing a Holliday (who I think is being overpaid in any case).

As I've been preaching the past few years, the Giants have been re-building and re-builds are never pretty nor cleanly done. It is never done with just home-grown players, there will always be free agents signed to fill in the gaps that the farm system could not fill. It will not be perfect, there will be mistakes, but you have to look at the big picture and see what team is coming out of the process.

What is coming out is a team dominated by a great pitching rotation, supported by a great bullpen, and has a developing offense, with Sandoval now in there (we have at least 5 more seasons of him) and Posey in the wings, plus a lot of good prospects percolating upward or already trying to make a name for themselves (Schierholtz, Bowker, Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen).

People are worried that the Giants won't be able to re-sign their young pitchers beyond our arbitration control because of the large contracts already committed (Zito and Rowand) but here I am putting my trust into Neukom's statement that he will get the money should we ever need it for a player. People have been assuming that applies only to free agents but I would have to think that it would apply to our own players as well, and Lincecum and Cain will be the first recipients of that largess, I believe.

Lastly, I would clarify one statement Schulman noted, that developing position players have not been the Giants forte. That's true if you are looking at the total number of position players developed. But that's not the whole story.

The whole story is that the Giants have been focusing their first round picks mainly on pitchers for the most part since Sabean took over as GM, and particularly after Dick Tidrow took over as head of player personnel. Those picks have the greatest likelihood of becoming a major league player, and even then, when you are winning, those picks become a good starting player around 10% of the time, which is pretty low odds. And they just get lower and lower, already around 1% by only the 4th round.

Picks like Posey (5th) and Wheeler (6th) become good players around 45% of the time, but by the 10th pick (Lincecum and Bumgarner) it has fallen to around 20% success rate for finding good starting players, and by the 21-30th picks, the ones that the playoff teams get, it is around 10%, as noted above.

That is a pretty low success rate, so while it is correct to say that developing position players have not been the Giants forte, there is a huge mitigating factor in that they had not been trying to be successful in developing position players, really, until 2008 when they drafted Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, and Brandon Crawford.

And, if Sandoval continues to hit like he did in 2009, what would you rather have: one Pablo Sandoval or a handful of Mark Teahen's, Bobby Crosby's, Dan Johnson's, Mike Jacob's? I would rather get a great player once in a while who you can't pick up easily via free agency, than a bunch of OK starters who you can pick up easily via free agency.

And Sabean has picked up great players over the years. Kent in 1997. Schmidt in 2001. Cain in 2002. Sandoval in 2003. Lincecum in 2006. And it is looking like Bumgarner in 2007 and Posey in 2008. Plus if Sanchez and Wilson continue doing well, I would add them to the list as well.

Oh, and I totally agree with Schulman that "they will be fun to watch."