Giants Sign 6th Round Draft Pick; Still Many More to Go

It seemed like the draft picks were going to sign quickly this season, as many first round picks signed faster than I can recall in recent years, but after a fast beginning, it slowed down to the slow molasses that marks the period for signing draft picks. At least they put everyone out of their misery by making the deadline in mid-August instead of allowing it to drag out into the next draft, like before.

The Giants are usually pretty quick signers of their picks in their first 10 rounds, but it's been slow this season, relatively. Of course, that could be a function of the Giants taking higher round talents in later rounds and paying according to talent and not round, which leads to a huge overslot bonuses, and the MLB Commissioner office delaying approval of the contract until much later.

Baseball America just announced that the Giants signed Matt Graham, RHP, for $500,000, which is the 3rd highest bonus given in the 6th round thus far, and is over slot by $350,000 (slot recommendation is $500,000 max after the 5th round), which as I noted, is a no-no and thus approval was delayed.

Here is what BA noted about Graham:

A righthander from Oak Ridge HS in Spring, Texas, Graham flashes first-round talent but lacks consistency. At his best, he’ll pitch at 90-93 mph with his fastball and back it up with a power curveball. He had committed to North Carolina.

They also noted that the Giants had not signed three of its top five picks thus far:

• Zack Wheeler, RHP (first round),
• Tommy Joseph, catcher (second), and
• Brandon Belt, first baseman (fifth)

Discussion of What Current Signings Suggest They Are Slotted to Sign For

Basically, Wheeler's #5 pick spot has pretty much been market valued at $2.42M, as the pick ahead and the pick behind got that much (long ago, I might add, and getting invaluable professional experience) plus the #3 pick got $2.5M. What is he asking for, the moon? This is disappointing because he seemed like he was eager to sign and start his pro career. Still, I would expect the Giants to sign him: he did not seem to be ego driven, plus was not represented by Boras, and it has to be hard to turn down around $2.5M and to go to college instead.

Tommy Joseph's bonus should be around $650,000. The pick behind him got $643,500 and 3 picks ahead that guy got $670,000, and he was from high school too. And there were a bunch of high schoolers behind that got basically $625,000. So the value is pretty set, how much is he asking for, $850-900,000? No way he can demand and expect to get $1,000,000, not even the late first rounders are getting that. Some wonder if Tim Alderson getting traded has affected him, but he did not seem to be that close to Alderson, and friend or not, it would be tough to pass up $650,000 and then go to college.

Then again, Lincecum passed up similar money because he wanted a million, though I would add that he was already in college and could expect to move up in the draft, assuming hard work and so forth would help him advance, while Joseph has no idea how he will fare in college, and if he is over his head, he would be lucky to ever get drafted again, let alone get a big bonus. Lincecum could reasonably expect to get a similar bonus, whereas Joseph could potentially be passing up on a lot of money if things don't go well for him in college. Still, there are players that cocky that they bet on themselves.

Chris Dominguez signed for $411,300, which is right in range with all the other picks in that general pick vicinity for the third round. And he is benefiting from signing earlier, he's been getting into games and he has already hit 7 HR in 109 AB (though poor BA and 35 strikeouts). He could be a fast mover and would easily make up the $100-200K extra he could have held out for by making the majors one year earlier due to his playing and doing well now.

Jason Stoffel signed for $254,700, which is right in range for all the other picks in that general pick vicinity for the fourth round. He has done OK in limited innings (8.0 IP) in rookie league, not striking out a lot, but walking nobody.

Brandon Belt is in the 5th round where picks around him got between $160,000 and $200,000. Since Graham signed for $500K, I can only assume that Belt wants more than that, at least $600,000. That is the high bonus in the 4th round right now, and there are none higher than $200,000 in the 5th round currently. There is a $750,000 bonus in the 6th round, which would be the max I would expect.

The Giants as usual have been pretty good in signing most of their draft picks. With the Graham signing, the Giants have now signed every pick from the 6th round to the 17th round. And have signed 30 of their 50 picks. Check out this website for the picks who have not signed. Check out this website for the bonuses for the first ten rounds.

They are a bit behind their usual pace with 3 of their top 5 unsigned, but I'm not too worried about those players signing, as I have not heard of any hard stands from any of the Giants draft picks. Still, they might not sign, for whatever reasons. I would expect Wheeler to sign almost no matter what, that is too much money to leave on the table.

Both Joseph and Belt could go either way. I think Belt is more likely now that Graham has signed and given a window on what Belt might be asking for. I don't see the Giants balking at that. Plus 1B is a position that is not taken yet, though Ishikawa and Garko probably has a hold on it for at least another year. But beyond that, Belt could be in line for that if he hits well enough and play good enough defense.

Joseph might not want to be in the same organization as Posey, as Buster would be blocking his way, realistically. Still, the rookie facilities are near home, which I think is a good consideration for a young player. Plus Posey looks to be so good offensively, that he probably will be like Biggio and move from catcher to 2B (or even SS, his former position) at some point in his career. And that is a lot of money to turn down, unless his family is rich enough already. I think he will eventually sign.

Baseball Draft Signings Moving Fast This Year: #5 Signed

This draft has seen a lot of quick signings in the first round, it seemed to me. Up to this weekend, 8 of the 32 first round picks have signed already:

• #4: Boston College C Tony Sanchez, $2.5M (Pirates) vs. slot of $2.75M in 2008
• #10: Stanford RHP Drew Storen, $1.6M (Nationals) vs. slot of $2.07M in 2008
• #17: Notre Dame OF A.J. Pollock, $1.4M (D-backs) vs. slot of $1.63M in 2008
• #21: High School SS Jiovanni Mier, $1.358M (Astros) vs. slot of $1.48M in 2008
• #24: High School OF Randal Grichuk, $1.242M (Angels) vs. slot of $1.38M in 2008
• #26: High School RHP Eric Arnett, $1.197M (Brewers) vs. slot of $1.33M in 2008
• #31: U. C. Berkeley OF Brett Jackson, $0.972M (Cubs) vs. slot of $1.08M in 2008
• #32: Sacramento State OF Tim Wheeler, $0.9M (D-Rox) vs. slot of $1.06M in 2008

That is one quarter of the prospects drafted in the first round, though two of them usually would not be in the first round, #31 and #32, there were two picks that moved from last season to this season.

According to reports, Selig had laid out the edict, er, suggestion, that there be a 10% reduction in the bonus slot. The above signings appear to be around what this reduction is, except for Storen, but the rumors on him was that the Nats had a pre-arrangement with him that they would draft him earlier than expected as long as he signs for less than slot.

The Nats figure to be signing WAAAY over slot for Stephen Strasburg, the first pick overall this year, and thus were looking to save some money. They still have the $4M they would have used last year on Crow before he declined to sign, plus now the savings on Storen (about $0.5M but I guess every little bit counts when Strasburg is looking to get a $20M+ package).

#5 Pick Signed

The latest news is really pertinent to the Giants in that the Orioles had announced on Saturday that they have signed Matt Hobgood, the #5 pick overall, to a $2.42M bonus, over the weekend. Last year's slot for the #5 pick was $2.5M (but Buster Posey was the pick so his signing bonus is not comparable) and, as noted, Selig recommends slicing 10% off, making the slot for the #5 pick to be $2.178M for 2009. Clearly, he signed for close to the slot for last year's draft but with a slight reduction.

The slot for the #6 pick last season was $2.4M. Since our pick, Zach Wheeler, is very comparable since he's also a high school pitcher like Hobgood, this signing would suggest that he should sign for basically around $2.4M, maybe for $2.35M, but the Giants in the past have not been that cheap about their signings, they were willing to go over slot, but how much over usually extended the time before signing, the higher the draftee wanted their bonus. With time value for money, even if he wanted $2.4M, one would think that he would be signing very soon.

Now, the way Wheeler seemed when he was interviewed right after being drafted was that he was eager to sign and get his professional career started. He doesn't have Boras as his agent, but I'm not sure who it is. He was not considered good enough to be considered for the #1 pick, and thus should not be expecting way over slot for his bonus.

This would all suggest that Wheeler should be signing soon and playing for our rookie league team soon

Analysis of Wheeler

Been meaning to post this earlier and separately, but the website, Baseball Intellect, which is run and written by Alex Eisenberg, did an analysis of Zach Wheeler recently. He has been analyzing the mechanics and skill sets of numerous draftees in the past couple of drafts.

Lots of good information on his pitching repertoire, and how good they are, plus, of course, his mechanics, as well as other notes on his makeup and intangibles. According to Eisenberg, he thinks that Wheeler will more likely become a borderline No. 2 starter, with the upside being that he could become a No. 1 starter if he can develop properly. Given the Giants success with high school pitchers during the Sabean era - Cain, Bumgarner, Alderson, even Jerome Williams before his physical/mental problems affected his ability - it looks like Sabean and gang has done it again with Wheeler.

Sabean's Future

I still find it amazing that there are still people carping on and complaining about Brian Sabean. For all the mistakes that many people blame him for in the past 4-7 years, they don't appear to be enjoying this season and/or understanding that it was him who put together this 2009 version of the Giants, nor appreciating the job he has done in putting it together. They would rather complain about the offense, which is among the worse in the NL and the majors, but more importantly has been doing the job with our pitching and defense, because, after all, that is the point of baseball, winning, and on that count, they have been doing a very good job, the Giants have the second best record in the NL and the lead for the wild-card spot for the playoffs.

I don't know if that is just Giants fans or all fans, but the glass is perpetually half empty. I used to contribute to the Usenet group for the Giants and there were a lot of unhappy people from 1997 to 2003, even though that was the best period for success for the Giants since the 1960's. They couldn't seem to enjoy the success, all they could seemingly do was focus on what was wrong with the team and how lousy Brian Sabean was.

As I've been saying for a number of years now, I think that Sabean has done a good job in rebuilding the farm system - once the team started losing and garnering much better draft picks (that is, picks with much higher odds of becoming a good player), that also helped too. I was among the few who were openly happy with the signing of Sabean to his current 2-year extension and he has not disappointed with his work last season and this season, in my opinion.

I think the Giants have been much more focused the past couple of seasons on creating opportunities for our better prospects at the major league level, particularly for the pitching staff, but also for the hitters. For example, they left open 3B for Frandsen, last season, which created a huge hole for them when he blew out his Achilies tendon and was lost for the whole season, basically, and kept Lewis as the starter even when Roberts returned, then this year gave Sandoval, Ishikawa, Burriss, and Sanchez the chance to win their positions. My main problems have been that we kept Randy Winn the past two seasons when Nate Schierholtz was ready for his opportunity and picking Burriss over Frandsen for the starting position this season. But I consider these quibbling, as overall, I've been very happy with what the Giants have been doing.
Based on how the team has been doing this year, I would hope that Neukom will sign Sabean to another 2 year extension after the season, with a team option for a third season. In fact, I would hope they get his name on the contract before the season ends so that another team can't sign him away, because I can see Sabean seriously look around if he is allowed to go free agent for even a minute, and that other teams would seriously look at him, and thus he would take his time to consider his options during the critical period when our management should be negotiating with free agents to fill any holes for the 2010 season.

Giants 2009 Draft: The Rest of the Draft

The Giants finished up the draft and below are the picks (culled from the article that covered the second day and the one covering the last day).

Round 4, Jason Stoffel, RHP, University of Arizona
UA's all-time saves leader (29) had a down year last season, posting a 4.67 ERA in 54 innings pitched. But as a freshman and sophomore he closed out the Wildcats' games ahead of 2008 first-round picks Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth, going a combined 9-2 and collecting 18 saves in 60 appearances. That had many around the game pegging Stoffel as a top relief pitching prospect. Instead, he wasn't even the first Pac-10 Conference closer drafted in his class.

According to MLB.com's scouting reports, concerns grew over Stoffel's conditioning -- he weighs 225 pounds at 6 feet, 1 inch tall. A dropoff in command -- his strikeout-to-walk ratio worsened from 79-to-15 in 2008 to 55-to-25 in 2009 -- didn't help either.

Stoffel said he intends to skip his senior season at UA to sign with the Giants -- clubs have until Aug. 17 to sign all of their Draft picks -- and added he's glad four of the organization's six Minor League teams compete on the West Coast. The Southern California native said being a closer in the big leagues is his ultimate goal.

"He's got a quality arm, he's been a part of a quality program," said Bobby Evans, the Giants' vice president of baseball operations "He's statistically maybe a victim of a few bad outings, but otherwise has a lot of ability and upside."

Evans said he expects the Giants Draftees with college experience, Stoffel included, will start their careers with the Class A Short-Season Salem-Keizer Volcanoes.

Round 5, Brandon Belt, 1B, University of Texas
The left-handed-hitting Belt led the Longhorns with a .336 batting average. He hit eight home runs in 57 games.

Round 6, Matthew Graham, RHP, Oak Ridge (Texas) HS
According to MLB.com's scouting reports, Graham can pump his fastball into the mid-90s but needs to improve his secondary pitches and his mechanics. The 6-foot-4-inch Texan has a "Roger Clemens-type body," the report stated.

Round 7, Nick Liles, 2B, Western Carolina University
Liles hit .367 and made the move from second base to center field midway through last season. In 56 games, he hit nine home runs and stole 24 bags. The Giants drafted Liles in the 2006 Draft's 29th round.

Round 8, Karl Benusa, CF, Riverview (Pa.) HS

Round 9, Evan Crawford, CF, Indiana
Crawford is simply a speedster. The right-handed batter stole 61 bases in 64 attempts in his three seasons at Indiana. He hit .323 his junior season.

Round 10, Jeremy Toole, RHP, Brigham Young University
In his one season at BYU, Toole went 5-5 with a 5.77 ERA in 14 starts. A season highlight: He threw a complete-game three-hitter against the University of Utah, striking out nine batters.

Round 11, John Eshleman, SS, Mount San Jacinto College (Calif.)
Eshleman was the second of three players from MSJC taken in the Draft's first 14 rounds. Eshleman hit .436, setting the program's single-season hits record.

Round 12, Christopher Heston, RHP, East Carolina University
As his team's No. 2 starting pitcher last season, Heston went 7-0 with a 4.17 ERA in 15 starts (17 appearances). He struck out 88 in 90 2/3 innings pitched.

Round 13, Shawn Sanford, RHP, University of South Florida
After saving a combined 22 games in the closer role in 2007 and 2008, Sanford moved out of the bullpen in 2009. In 10 starts (17 appearances) he went 5-4 with a 4.68 ERA.

Round 14, Brian Salsbury, RHP, Mount San Jacinto Junior College (Calif.)
Salsbury won 13 games for MSJC, whiffing 127 hitters in 111 innings pitched.

Round 15, Kyle Vazquez, RHP, Franklin Pierce University
Vazquez, selected to the Rawlings/American Baseball Coaches Association All-America Third Team, was his team's top starting pitcher last season. He went 8-1 on the mound, posting a 1.93 ERA. He threw three shutouts on the season, striking out 112 batters in 93 1/3 innings pitched.

Round 16, Ryan Cavan, SS, University of California Santa Barbara
Cavan already listed the Giants as his favorite big league team. Now he likely loves the organization. In one season at UCSB -- after playing at Trinity College in 2006, Chapman University in 2007 and sitting out in 2008 -- Cavan hit .341 and scored 50 runs in 49 games.

Round 17, Christopher Gloor, LHP, Quinnipiac University (Conn.)
Gloor went 7-4 with a 4.63 ERA in 12 starts this past season, retiring 81 batters on strikes in 81 2/3 innings pitched. "I was listening on the radio and waiting and when I heard my name, it finally hit me," Gloor said, according to his school's Web site. "I knew there were teams that were interested in me, and right before San Francisco's pick, my advisor mentioned that the Giants may take me soon. I'm excited to get started as soon as I'm assigned to one of their affiliates."

Round 18, Jonathan Walsh, OF, Coppell (Texas) HS
The switch-hitting Walsh mainly played catcher last season, though there are concerns about his future at that position, according to MLB.com's scouting reports. Walsh has signed a letter of intent to play collegiately at the University of Texas.

Round 19, Jason Walls, RHP, Troy University
In one season at Troy, Walls went 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA in 13 starts.

Round 20, Mitchell Mormann, RHP, Des Moines Area Community College (Iowa)
Mormann won 10 games in 13 starts last season, posting a 3.40 ERA. The pitcher could make for an imposing presence on the mound as he stands 6 feet, 6 inches tall.

Round 21, Zachary Wasserman, 1B, Lake Shore (Mich.) HS

Round 22, Andrew Biery, 3B, Kansas State University
Biery played shortstop in college but was drafted to man the hot corner. He played four seasons at KSU, finishing his senior year with a .329 batting average and nine home runs in 57 games.

Round 23, Adam Champion, LHP, University of Arkansas at Little Rock
Giants fans will want the organization to sign this 6-foot-7 junior, if only for his surname. Champion did have a lopsided win-loss record (3-7), however, and sported a 5.60 ERA.

Round 24, Alexander Burg, C, Washington State University
Burg -- Seinfeld aficionados would say he has a nice "John Houseman name" -- played two seasons at Clemson before finishing his amateur career with two more at WSU. In 2009, he led the Cougars with a .346 batting average.

Round 25, Steven Rogers, RHP, Tulane University
The junior, who goes by his middle name, Taylor, had a 4.43 ERA in 14 games last season.

Round 26, Luis Munoz, CF, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy High School

Round 27, Kyle Mach, 3B, University of Missouri
The four-year player led the Tigers in hitting (.335 batting average) last season and struck out just 19 times in 224 at-bats. His grandfather, Phil Gagliano, played 12 seasons with four big leagues teams and won the World Series with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1968.

Round 28, Jamaine Cotton, RHP, Western Oklahoma State College
Cotton, who hails from the U.S. Virgin Islands, won 10 games in 13 starts this past season.

Round 29, Luke Demko, RHP, University of Rhode Island
Demko struck out 44 batters in 33 innings pitched in 2009, earning 11 saves in the process. The 6-foot-7 closer is listed between 260 and 289 pounds.

Round 30, Craig Westcott, RHP, Belhaven College (Miss.)
In 2009 Westcott put up all the numbers desired of a pitching prospect. In 17 starts, he went 11-4 with a 3.29 ERA and threw seven complete games (five shutouts). He also fanned 124 batters in just 90 1/3 innings pitched. His task will be to do more of the same against fiercer competition.
Round 31, Diego Seastrunk, C, Rice University
The junior can definitely hit, a line-drive machine from both sides of the plate. And there's no doubt about his makeup and his knowledge of the game. He just goes about it the right way. The question, and it will ultimately determine his Draft status, is if he can catch well enough. If he can learn the position defensively, he could be an everyday backstop at the next level and would obviously create a lot of interest on Draft day.

Round 32, Luke Anders, 1B, Texas A&M University
The junior is 6'6", 225 lbs lefty hitter.

Round 33, Jake Dunning, RHP, Indiana University (Junior)

Round 34, Brandon Kirby, CF, Lake Wales High School (R/R)

Round 35, Brandon Graves, LHP, Valdosta State University (Senior)

Round 36, Ryan Scoma, RF, UC Davis (Senior; L/R)

Round 37, Ryan Lollis, RF, University of Missouri Columbia (Senior; L/L)

Round 38, Addison Proszek, RHP, Gonzaga University (Senior; R/R)

Round 39, Kyle Henson, C, University of Mississippi (Senior; R/R)

Round 40, Jonathan White, LF, Vanderbilt University (5th Year Senior; L/L)

Round 41, Gary Moran, RHP, Sonoma State University (Senior)

Round 42, Nicholas Schwaner, 3B, University of New Orleans (Junior; L/R)

Round 43, Matthew Jansen, LHP, Purdue University (Junior)

Round 44, Joseph Lewis, 1B, Pittsburg High School (L/R)

Round 45, Kyle Kramp, RHP, Westfield High School

Round 46, Juan Martinez, SS, Oral Roberts Univeristy (Senior; R/R)

Round 47, Michael Ness, RHP, Duke University (Junior)

Round 48, Randolph Oduber, LF, Western Oklamhoma State College (Junior; R/L)

Round 49, Austin Goolsby, C, Embry-Riddle University (Junior; R/R)

Round 50, Kaohi Downing, RHP, Point Loma Nazarene University (Senior)

Scouting Reports

As usual, the prospects drafted after the third round is not so easy to report on unless a highly thought up player has a hiccup season and drops in the draft. Last year, the Giants pounced on Roger Kieschnick and Brandon Crawford under such circumstances. This year, it's Jason Stoffel, who actually had a full scouting report on MLB.com:

Stoffel entered his junior season as perhaps the top college closer in the class, a guy who closed ahead of 2008 first-rounders Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth at Arizona in years past. But his stock took a hit for much of the spring season as he was more hittable than in the past. He simply hasn't been as sharp, particularly command-wise, and there was concern about his conditioning playing a part in that. His power arsenal out of the 'pen will certainly get drafted, but it seemed unlikely to be as highly as was once thought.

Strength: He's got a power arsenal well-suited for short relief work and he's got a track record of success in college.

Weaknesses: He seems to have taken a step backward in terms of his results, command and conditioning.

Fastball: Stoffel's velocity has been up and down this season. He's been as high as 96 mph in the past, was as low as 90-91 and has been in the 92-94 range in most outings.

Fastball movement: He'll throw an occasional two-seamer with sink. Most of his fastballs are four-seamers with a little tail.

Curve: He throws a hard, overhand power curve, 80-84 mph.

Poise: He's very stoic on the mound. He's laid back, but you can tell he's poised on the mound and has pitched in a ton of big games.

Stoffel sounds like a find in the fourth round, just sounds like he just had a bad year, as he was very good in previous years, and he's coming to the right organization to help him work out his kinks. If he signs quickly, the Giants might work him up and bring him up in September. Another power arm for our bullpen in the future.

Another player with a scouting report is RHP Matthew Graham:

Graham, truth be told, is a project. But he's one that someone might like to take on, because he's got plus raw arm strength and can crank it up to 95 mph at times. The problem is he can't repeat his delivery, so it's not consistent. Neither is his command, or any secondary offerings. The best thing might be to teach him a second pitch, like a slider, and make him a short reliever. It's something the University of North Carolina might do, and it might be tough for an MLB team to keep him from honoring that commitment.

Weaknesses: He's just a thrower and doesn't really know how to pitch. He can't command the baseball at all and his fastball is his only decent offering.

A total project but the Giants have not backed away from such projects in the past (like Erick Threets). I don't know what his interests are, but if he wants to make it as a pitcher, again, one of the better organizations to be in.

Another draftee with a full scouting report is OF Jonathan Walsh:

Walsh entered the year as one of the better high school catching prospects, but those who have seen him haven't been that impressed. He does have some ability with the bat from both sides of the plate. His defensive skills are lacking and he might need to move to first base when all is said and done. If that happens, then his bat will really have to carry him. A team will have to seriously believe in his offensive upside to sign him away from the University of Texas.

He's not that great a prospect, for hitting and power, so to draft him means the Giants think they can develop him as a catcher, as the description of him as a hitter is not impressive enough to put him at 1B.

Diego Seastrunk is the last prospect to have a full scouting report:

Seastrunk can definitely hit, a line-drive machine from both sides of the plate. And there's no doubt about his makeup and his knowledge of the game. He just goes about it the right way. The question, and it will ultimately determine his Draft status, is if he can catch well enough. If he can learn the position defensively, he could be an everyday backstop at the next level and would obviously create a lot of interest on Draft day.

Hitting Ability: Seastrunk can swing the bat well and is the same hitter from both sides of the plate. He has excellent pitch recognition, allowing him to take pitches others can't hold up on. He uses the entire field.

Strength: A real baseball player, he knows the game and plays it the right way. His makeup is off the charts -- he volunteered to move behind the plate this season. He has some hitting ability from both sides of the plate.

Being drafted so far back in the draft, it appears that none of the teams think he can catch well enough. Still, he appears to be a good hitter, so perhaps if he can develop, he can, if necessary, move off of catching to another defensive position. He previously played 3B and that is a position of need in our organization, though it should be noted that the Giants announced him as a catcher, so that should be his position to start with. Still, nothing says he can't move there at some point, the Giants are not shy about switching players around to other positions. And he appears to have suffered offensively switching to the catching position, as he hit .331 during this freshman and sophomore seasons, but only .288 with 7 HR and 45 RBI in 61 games last season.

Giant Thoughts

The Giants appeared to have focused on a lot of catching prospects in this draft (5 drafted in total plus one who was a catching last season but drafted as OF), as well as their usual assortment of pitchers. They also went for more position players, drafting 24 pitchers and 26 position players, as well as focusing on college players, with 10 high school prospects. They normally end up drafting many more pitchers than position player during prior drafts. But I am not sure about their propensity towards college, other than I don't think they leaned one way or the other previously (unlike, say, the A's, who normally focused on college players in prior drafts). Also, while 5 are catchers, there are enough question marks on their defense that catching might not be their eventual position.

Jason Stoffel was the most prominent of the picks in the remaining two days of the draft. He could conceivably join the Giants in September if he signs quickly enough and picks things up quickly. Other better prospects who fell back were RHP Matthew Graham, OF switch-hitter Jonathan Walsh (the former catcher), and switch-hitting C Diego Seastrunk (who might eventually shift to another position). There were a number of other prospects with videos when the draft began, but when I tried to go back to list them, they were gone.

Baseball America ranked the following players among their top 200 for the 2009 Draft:

• #12: RHP Zack Wheeler (Giants 1st round pick, #6 overall)
• #49: C Tommy Joseph (Giants 2nd round pick, #55 overall)
• #62: RHP Jason Stoffel (Giants 4th round pick, #117 overall)
• #85: 3B Chris Dominguez (Giants 3rd round pick, #86 overall)
• #141: RHP Matt Graham (Giants 6th round pick, #177 overall)

Typically, the Giants tend to draft their players higher than the Baseball America rank. Did not happen that much this time, only Wheeler was drafted before he was expected.

Giants Other 2009 Draftees: First Day

This draft is different in that only three rounds were done the first day. The Giants only had two other picks (did not pick up any free agent compensation picks), the 55th and the 86th.

Giants Select C Thomas Joseph With 55th Pick

The Giants 2nd round pick, the 55th pick overall, was Tommy Joseph, high school catcher. According to the MLB description, he is quite the offensive find, though positionally he's a question mark at the moment:

In a deep class of prep catchers, Joseph hasn't gotten a ton of love, though his bat has been making more than enough noise. He's got serious offensive ability with light-tower raw power. He's more of a question mark behind the plate. He's got an above-average arm, but this was the first season he's caught and he lacks overall quickness. His bat likely will play anywhere, but if a team feels he can catch, he could sneak into the first couple of rounds.

So basically he's another EME, Pablo Sandoval, or Jesus Guzman, defensively challenged and looking for a place to play. According to the description above, this means that the Giants think that he could be a catcher, but with Posey looking to hold that position for the long-term future, I have to think that he's going to play 1B or perhaps LF, he has a great arm but no speed to mention, so 1B appears to be his best position to play.
His strengths:

Excellent bat with plenty of power, both now and in the future. Above-average arm could play behind the plate.

And that seems to be his key pluses, his ability to hit and his power:

Joseph destroys below-average pitching and really turns it up a notch against better competition. He can use the entire field. Has light-tower power to the pull side and shows it off in workouts. He should have plenty of power to all fields.

But his main weakness is his inexperience behind the plate:

This year is the first he's caught full-time after DH-ing and playing first base for most of his high school career. He does have some work to do defensively. Because he hasn't spent much time behind the plate, it left some to wonder if he can stay back there, especially considering his size (6'1"; 210 lbs) and lack of quickness.

Here is an interesting sidenote: he was a former teammate of Tim Alderson. I guess that is when the Giants found him and got interested in him.

The Giants just missed on a couple of players I thought they might draft. SS Mychal Givens, who had been linked to the Giants in a few of the rumors I had read, was selected just before Joseph, with the 54th pick. I was also hoping that they might select 1B Richard Poythress, but he was grabbed with the 51st pick, who has a lot of power too, and would have been closer to the majors since he's a junior in college.

In addition, Tanner Scheppers almost fell to us, he was selected with the 44th pick. Another who I saw some speculate that perhaps the Giants might select, was CF Kentrail Davis, who was selected with the 39th pick. And the one I was hoping to fall to us, but he got selected around where people were guessing, was Matt Davidson, selected with the 35th pick by Arizona.

Giants Select 3B Christopher Dominguez With 86th Pick

The MLB has nothing on him, other than that he is a senior with the University of Louisville. My research yielded that he repeated as Big East Player of the Year in 2009, only the second player in Big East history to repeat. He led his team, Louisville U, to its best record in school history, 40-14, capturing the Big East regular season title for the first time (I like this!). He finished the season with 21 HR, 75 RBI, and 17 SB, leading his team in each category, and he led the Big East in Total Bases with 158 and was second in HR, RBI and SLG, which was .721, and he hit .345/.441/.696/1.137 in total, regular season and playoffs. However, with 23 errors, I'm not sure if 3B is in his future.

Here is some personal info from his sport bio at school:

Born 11/22/86 in Los Angeles to Lazaro and Maria Dominguez. He is considering business as his major. Has one brother, Lazaro Jr. Would like to play pro ball after college. His family is his greatest influence on him. Major League, Cinderella Man and Men of Honor are his favorite movies. Likes to watch Baseball Tonight and Cribs on the tube. His favorite athletes are Bruce Lee and A-Rod. Mariners, Marlins and Yankees are his favorite teams.

I guess he will now have a new favorite team, the Giants.

He was highly touted by Baseball America when he came out of high school, as they rated him the top prep 3B and #11 overall prospect. And he was named as one of the 30 semifinalists for the 2009 USA Baseball Golden Spikes Award (but did not make the final 5).

Like Joseph, he has special power, "light tower power" according to one site that I read.
OK, he did have a draft report on him FROM LAST SEASON, as apparently his star dimmed between the seasons, despite how well he did this season. It confirms that he got "plus raw power" but "has been very inconsistent with his overall hitting ability." According to this report, he moves pretty well in the infield and should be fine fielding at 3B, including having a plus arm. His strengths are his plus raw power and arm strength, but his weakness is that, while he's capable of doing a lot of things well, he does few of them consistently. His summary:

One of the bigger enigmas in the Draft class, Dominguez is eligible as a sophomore after red-shirting his freshman year back in 2006. Healthy now, he's been an impact player at the college level this season, but his performance has been extremely inconsistent. He'll look outclassed one moment and in a league of his own the next, leaving many a scout to scratch his head. Still, his size, strength, athleticism and potential all should pique someone's interest early enough.

Giants Thoughts

Like most prospects not drafted at the top of the draft, both are a work in progress with their main positives being their raw power and their arms. Looks like the Giants are trying to stock up with some potential middle lineup guys with these two picks.

I like both picks. Both have plus power, and look like they have a chance to develop and maybe make something out of themselves. As my draft study showed, the odds of such prospects becoming good players is slim - less than 5% of the picks studied made it - but their raw plus power is a strength that is missing from our farm system for the most part, a crying shame given the Giants history with Roger Connor, Mel Ott, Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Jeff Kent, and Barry Bonds. The main power guys in our system right now are Roger Kieschnick and Angel Villalona, though Bowker has been blasting them out in AAA this season.

The Giants Selection in the 2009 Draft is Zack Wheeler

The Giants Select with the 6th Pick of the 2009 Draft:

Zack Wheeler

MLB.com: Strike thrower. Wants to sign, wants to play. 6' 4", 175 lbs, RHP. College commit to Kennesaw State.

Draft Report

Final Mock Draft Projections for 2009 Draft

Both Jonathan Mayo's final projection and Baseball America's Mock Draft 4.0 have the Giants selecting Tyler Matzek.

Mayo's final notes are short and succinct:

There was some word that Matzek might drop a few spots, but there wasn't enough to change the pick.

Apparently the rumor that Ackley might fall is still just a faint rumor, he still has the Mariners selecting him, with the caveat that it could blow up on the signability front, but that was always there, he has Boras as his agent.

Baseball America commented:

6. GIANTS. San Francisco needs hitting more than pitching and has spent a
lot of time working on college outfielders Wheeler, A.J. Pollock (Notre Dame)
and Brett Jackson (California). But a team picking this high almost always takes
the best player available, and the Giants aren't afraid of negotiating with
tough signs, so that should lead them to Matzek. Zack Wheeler may be Plan B.

Projected Pick: TYLER MATZEK.

They also noted some last minute posturing on bonuses:

According to multiple team sources, several of the draft's best high school players blew them away when they revealed their price tags. California lefthander Tyler Matzek, the best prep prospect in the draft, wants "precedent-setting money," which is interpreted to mean that he wants to surpass the record $7 million guarantee for a high schooler given to Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello. Texas righthander Shelby Miller, previously believed to be signable for around MLB's bonus recommendations, is asking for $4 million.

New Jersey outfielder Mike Trout (upwards of $2.5 million), Texas outfielder Slade Heathcott (upwards of $2 million), Florida third baseman Bobby Borchering ($2 million) and North Carolina catcher Wil Myers ($2 million) all want top-10-pick money. Oklahoma southpaw Chad James seeks $1.75 million. Previously, Missouri righty Jacob Turner and Texas lefty Matt Purke alluded to Porcello money, while Georgia outfielder Donavan Tate will cost $6 million or more.

Giants Thoughts

It appears that the consensus is that the Giants will select Tyler Matzek. If the rumor is correct about what he is asking for, I don't see the Giants paying that much for him, I think they will stick to around slot, which was $2.4M last year and with Selig's 10% decrease, now $2.16M for 2009. It is not like Matzek is considered that good a starter. I have not see any buzz on him equivalent to what I saw about Porcello. He is good but not that good, it seems to me.

Still, the scouting report that Mayo put together on him is really strong, so it is not like he is without credentials. Here is his report again, I will put some highlights below:

Fastball:

Matzek was 90-94 from the windup and 86-88 from the stretch, though he touched 92 and 93, adding and subtracting when he wanted to.

Control:	It wasn't pinpoint, but overall it was good. He left a few balls up in the zone. He tried to throw one curve for a strike and the harder curve to chase and was above-average with that
Poise:	He was very business-like on the mound, focused on the task at hand. He seems to respond to the situation.
Physical Description:	Matzek has a natural, athletic build with strength in his legs and hips. He's lean, but showed some good weight in his core area.

Strengths:	He has everything you'd want to see within him, including at least three average or above pitches. When he wants to, he has a really good idea of how to pitch.
Weaknesses:	Sometimes seems like he just does what he needs to do to get by. He may have been throwing to the gun too much in the past.
Summary:	When Matzek is locked in, it's easy to argue that he's one of the -- if not the -- top high school lefty in this Draft class. With a fastball that reaches 95 mph and two different breaking pitches, he's got the tools necessary to succeed. The one knock is that it seems at times that he's just doing enough to get by. When focused, he really knows how to pitch and put away hitters. It's a package that should go pretty quickly on Draft day.

From this report, it seems like what has been seen from him could be just a taste of what he can do. He has been clearly better than his competition but, unfortunately, has played down to the competition and situation sometimes. That's not a good trait to have, you want a guy (like Bumgarner and Alderson) who are competitive-minded. Still, when someone is extremely talented, that typically trumps a poor trait like that.

And in a recent playoff game, he was dominating, though a little wild. In the first inning, Matzek's fastball was in the 94-96 MPH range, reaching 97, with an 87 slider and 81 curve (see BA account). He pitching 7 innings, allowing only 2 hits, 3 walks, and striking out 7, and still throwing 93 MPH fastball and 77 curve at the end. They noted that he was "quietly intense" so that is a good sign, plus he had his team's only two hits, which pitchers should concentrate on since if they can just be a marginal MLB hitter, it would be such an advantage that it would add at least 2 wins to his net W/L.

I don't see the Giants pulling any other player out of their hat unless someone falls to them from above, like Ackley, Tate, or Crow. Green has lost a lot of steam and could even fall to us with our second round pick, the way it seems, as he's now slated for the supplementary first round in the BA mock, though Mayo has the A's selecting him (really don't see that because Boras is his agent and the A's keep a tight hold on their purse strings). I think a college bat like Tim Wheeler would be a stronger possibility for the A's, or perhaps 3B Bobby Borchering, since Chavez looks done, though Borchering is only in High School, so he'll be a long term project.

I also still wonder if the Giants are interested in Shelby Miller. He's a fireballer from Texas, but has not been tied to extravagent bonus demands, like many of the other top prospects.

Also, I wonder if the Giants might have in their back pocket the option of not signing someone this season and accepting the 7th pick from next year. That would give them two picks in the first round of next year's draft, and perhaps the number of hitting prospects will be closer to 2008 than 2009. I am sure the Giants would have loved to select Justin Smoak or Gerald Beckham with their 6th pick this season or 7th pick next season, which they could have done in last year's draft had they the 6th pick then.

2009 Draft: Giants Discussion on MLB.com

Here is Chris Haft's article on the Giants and their 6th pick. This reports the possibility of Ackley falling to us:

First-round buzz

The Giants have been linked to high school pitchers Tyler Matzek, Jacob Turner and Shelby Miller. Other mock Drafts also have them taking a shortstop, such as Mychal Givens or Grant Green. It has been suggested that first baseman/outfielder Dustin Ackley, widely considered the best pure college hitter available, could fall to the Giants. Barr wants to keep his options open: "I don't want to speculate on who it's going to be."

Here is what John Barr said about whoever the Giants do pick with the 6th pick:

"Whoever we end up drafting No. 6 is going to be a good player. We're confident about that because of all of the work we've done."

Jonathan Mayo also released his pre-draft day mock draft and still have the Giants selecting Matzek:

6. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
There was some word that Matzek might drop down a few spots, and if Ackley falls because of signability, this might be a good spot for him, but there wasn't enough to change the pick.

In this latest mock draft, Tate is selected third by the Padres, as apparently they have been all over him. Despite that, there is talk that he and others could fall:

Matthew Purke, Dustin Ackley and Donavan Tate are all in the top 10, but could slide down if the perceived bonus figures end up being too much for takers at the top.

Giants Thoughts

I have no idea who might fall to us, there is a lot more uncertainty, particularly because so many of the top players are Boras's clients. Unless the Giants select Tate, I doubt they will be selecting a position player. Green appears to be the most qualified position player who otherwise might fall to us, but it would take a huge leap of faith, from what I've read, for the Giants to select him so early, particularly since he will be expensive no matter what, as Boras is his agent.

Ideally, we end up with Dustin Ackley, but from what I've read, one of three teams ahead of us are interested in him. Unless he makes noise about wanting a lot of money, much like how Posey got himself to fall to the Giants (the rumor was he wanted $12M), that does not look likely.

I just don't see the Giants paying so much for a player with question marks like Tate, so I have to assume that the Giants will go for a pitcher. Matzek appears to be the one that people think they will go for, though Turner and Miller have also been suggested. If Matzek and Crow are gone, as well as Ackley and Tate, the Giants could go for Grant Green, I suppose.

In any case, it is good that the Giants believe that there are at least 6 good players available, and thus that they will be certain to select a good player when it is their turn to select.

2009 Mock Draft: Baseball America John Manuel

Baseball America today published Jim Callis's and John Manuel's thoughts about the draft tomorrow. For their mock draft, they did not take signability into as much concern as a team might, so that is a giant grain of salt to consider when thinking about the draft, but still, it is a lot of good discussion about the prospects in general who the Giants might select. This is what John had to say about the Giants:

6. GIANTS (John). Interesting point on Crow. I can't say I disagree, nor do I disagree that Turner is the best prep righthander available. The Giants in the past would be all over someone like Wheeler at No. 6 in this situation, and we know that general manager Brian Sabean has seen Wheeler pitch himself. But the Giants have become much more daring about rebuilding their franchise the last few years, particularly in terms of position players. They've paid large bonuses internationally and domestically, and shouldn't be scared off by Georgia high school outfielder Donavan Tate's price tag. He has a high upside as a potential premium defender, and the Giants have enough prospects to be patient with Tate's bat, which could need more time than most clubs are willing to give.

Many mock drafts had them doing that, so it is not a big shock to see this.

Also, echoing what Mayo noted, Callis thought so well about Tyler Matzek that he had the 'Dres selecting him with the third pick, noting:

But I'm not the biggest Tate fan—I worry about his bat some, and he spurned my alma mater's football program for yours, though Georgia is demonstrably better than North Carolina—so I'd go with a different potential superstar. Give me California high school lefthander Tyler Matzek. He came into the year as the top lefthander available and his stock has only gone up. He has been spectacular in playoff starts the last two weeks, and some teams would be tempted to take him over Ackley.

And Ackley, most acknowledge is the second best prospect in the draft and should be selected second or at worse third in this draft.

Here is Callis's thought on Shelby Miller, who he picked 9th:

I'm not ready to pull the trigger on St. Paul Saints (American Association) righthander Tanner Scheppers yet either. He has thrown hard this spring, but he had serious shoulder issues a year ago, and shoulder issues scare me. I'm going to go for a little gamesmanship here, because there are a couple of players I like that I don't think you're going to pop, so I'll take Texas high school righthander Shelby Miller. He's got the best high school fastball in this draft, and that works for me.

Here are Manuel's comments on Grant Green, with 12th pick:

But a Boras client that's too good to pass up also is available, and Southern California shortstop Grant Green makes more sense for me here than Sanchez. He's not as safe a pick, but he's got more upside. Usually, I think the Cape Cod League is over-rated, but I'm banking that Green's rumored hand injury is the reason he didn't hit for power this spring. Get him healthy, get him back with a wood bat and get the Royals a middle-of-the-diamond talent with offensive upside.

Interesting comment about Cape Cod, I see a lot of prognosticators touting success in that league, but after our Todd Linden experience, I haven't been sold on that league yet as a precursor for success. If it really is an injury, Green might be a good selection for the Giants, except for the high price tag on him with Boras as his agent.

Again, Baseball America is not saying that Tate is who the Giants will pick, just that they think the Giants might take that chance given their past spending over the past few years now and given that Tate is probably the best prospect available when it is their turn to select. They have thus far avoided Boras picks in recent years, passing by, notably, on Rick Porcello when they could have selected him with the Alderson pick (which I don't blame them for, but others do), but you never know, they have stated that they will go for best player available, regardless of whether Boras is their agent or not.

2009 Amateur Draft Mock Draft

Jonathan Mayo had another mock draft, 48 hours before the actual runs. Remember, MLB.com runs a live draft feed during the draft, for those who like to watch grass grow. :^) The teams are asked to wait basically their full allotment of time before announcing their choice (or perhaps Bud waits even when the team has already made their choice).

Still, I like having the draft picker application up, which feeds scouting reports and links on picks made, plus there are usually post-draft interviews, there was a good one with Sabean and Tidrow a couple of years ago, when they said that they expected Bumgarner and Alderson to be on the fast track and make the majors in two years, and don't you know it, both appear likely to be called up in September, at worse, this season.

Here is Mayo's latest thoughts on who the Giants would pick:

6. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
There are still a number of possibilities here, but after Matzek's two-hit shutout in the playoffs on Tuesday, there was no real reason to make a switch.

I would also note that other players also available at this point are SS Grant Green and OF Donavan Tate. Both are Boras's clients and signability issues appear to be pushing them to the back of the first round, if not out of it, particularly Tate. There is still some mention of either being possibly selected up as high as our pick.

I would also note that Tanner Scheppers and Shelby Miller are also available, both had been mentioned up this high in the draft before. Michael Trout had also been mentioned, but that appears to have been an aberation, he's slotted for 23rd now. And one person I had wondered about, Matt Davidson, is slotted for 26th in this mock draft.

Next Mayo 2009 Mock Draft

Jonathan Mayo has his second mock draft out now.

He now has the Giants picking someone more conventional:

6. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
This is a spot that shows just how volatile this thing is. Normally by now, a team picking fifth can hone in on a couple of players. But everyone, including GM Brian Sabean, has been running around trying to see as many players as possible. They like Michael Trout, as mentioned last week, but that now seems like it's too much of a reach. A high school pitcher seems most likely at this point. With Wheeler gone, that could mean Turner or Matzek, the top prep lefty in the class. A big arm like Tanner Scheppers could be of interest to them. Want some dark horses? How about ASU starter Mike Leake (they were at his last regular-season start) or Stanford closer Drew Storen.
Last week's projection: Michael Trout

Giants Thoughts

I would note two things here.  First, don't be put off by the changes he makes.  Right now, there's too much data and paradoxically, too little data.   Too much data on the prospects, but too little data regarding each team's thoughts.  So consider these to be mental/logic exercises where he picks up a little more information each week, from scouts and other draft sources, and hones in on what he thinks will happen.

Second, Sabean and gang is usually very closed mouthed about what they will say about prospects.  So any mock draft where you see someone say "Oh, the Giants always do this, the Giants like this type of prospect before," just take that with a grain of salt, the Giants don't always follow a script, else we would be here complaining about Daniel Bard instead of celebrating Tim Lincecum.

Instead, what is good is that this methodology does seem to work for other teams, and thus these mock drafts, over time, will give you an idea of who the top prospects will be available when it is time for us to pick, because it would have accurately determined (within 1-2 prospects) who would have been selected before your team's pick.  Obviously, this only really works within the first 10 picks, at best, though last year, Mayo pretty much nailed the first 15-20 pretty well.  This will give us Giants fans lots to talk about and debate on who the Giants might take.

OK, three things to note:  I don't see the Giants going after a closer when we have Brian Wilson there plus Osirus Matos and Waldis Joaquin, and shouldn't forget, Merkin Valdez.   Plus Henry Sosa could move into the bullpen soon if he can't figure out the magic that moved him into prospect-status as a starter.

While I can see the Giants going for Matzek, who is thought to be the top lefty prep pitcher and perhaps the best prep pitcher overall, the team is filled with lefty pitchers, both in the rotation (Zito and Sanchez; I know Johnson is a lefty but he won't be around long-term) and in the farm system (Bumgarner, Alderson, Tanner).  I think they will probably lean RHP, all things being otherwise equal.

Thus I wonder if they might also look at Shelby Miller, a Texas fire-baller, who has been clocked as high as 98 MPH, and is comfortable at around 93 MPH (prospect report).  The biggest flaw noted is his command has been inconsistent at best, and given the Giants selection of Bumgarner and Alderson, two command freaks, so that would say he would not be selected, but he has lots of projection and a good fastball-curve combo.

However, Matzek's report seems more positive than Miller's.  It notes that his weakpoints are that he's been cruising thus far, doing what he needs to do to get by, plus he may have been "throwing to the gun too much".  Thus he might be able to turn it up a notch once he turns pro.  It also notes that he has potentially three average to plus pitches, and his control was good overall.  

Still, Miller is good enough that Mayo has the Braves selecting him with the #7 pick of the draft, right after the Giants, so there might not be that much difference between the two.  I've seen somewhere note that this draft, after Strasburg, Ackley, and maybe Tate, is pretty much interchangeable for the next 10-15 picks.  

Another top pitcher expected to be around is Tanner Scheppers, who was a Top 10 pick talent last season who fell a lot because he injured his arm late in the season.  He ended up not signing and playing indy ball this year.  His report notes a fastball normally at 95 MPH and ranging from 93 to 98 MPH, and the potential for a power curve, with good command.  

Lastly, a wild card is the Pirates, who in this mock draft selects Aaron Crow, but could pick a position player instead (they could be interested in Grant Green).  If they do go position player, then either Aaron Crow or Zack Wheeler would be available to the Giants also, or perhaps both if the Orioles go with a position player instead as well.

Of course, the Giants could go for the top position prospect left to them, Donavan Tate, who has Boras as his agent and reportedly a big jackpot in mind, since he's signed for college to play both baseball and football, and did I mention that Boras is his agent?  The Giants probably could sign him for a top bonus in the $4-6M range, though you never know with some people, they would rather hold out for top money, like Alvarez did last year.  

Then, there is always Grant Green, a former top 4 consideration, who has fallen so far that he's out of Mayo's Top 20 picks.  Though, I should note, that is partly because his agent is Boras too.  

I don't see Green happening now, he has lost a lot of status, but Tate is a dark horse candidate, as his potential is pretty high.  Still, it's possible you pay him all that money and he is just an average power bat in the majors, and the book is still out whether he can hit for average in the majors.  However, he's suppose to be excellent defensively and if he can stick in CF, then he won't need to hit for as high an average there, plus his power would compensate for that, particularly he can develop into a plus power hitter.  Think Arizona's Chris Young.

BA 2009 Draft Top 100

Baseball America today released their Top 100 Prospects list for the 2009 Draft.  This is ranked by their evaluation and is not adjusted for signability nor team needs, just purely on what they think are the top amateur players.   It is no surprise who is #1, but here is the Top 15:

1. Stephan Strasburg, RHP
2. Dustin Ackley, 1B
3. Donavan Tate, OF
4. Kyle Gibson, RHP
5. Jacob Turner, RHP
6. Alex White, RHP
7. Aaron Crow, RHP
8. Tyler Matzek, LHP
9. Tanner Scheppers, RHP
10. Matthew Purke, LHP
11. Shelby Miller, RHP
12. Zack Wheeler, RHP
13. Grant Green, SS
14. Mike Leake, RHP
15. Tim Wheeler, CF

I went with top 15 to show how top heavy this draft is with pitching, which held 10 of the top 12 spots, 11 of the top 15.  

The names I've seen associated with the Giants so far are Donavan Tate and Mike Trout (who is ranked 22nd).  I've seen some fans speculate on other top position prospects, Grant Green (13th) and Tim Wheeler (15th), plus Bobby Borchering (16th) sounds familiar to me, he's a switch-hitting 3B.

Other position prospects that I've seen that probably will be gone in the supplemental first round, but that might fall to us with our 2nd round pick (or later) include:

• Rich Poythress, 1B
• Brett Jackson, OF
• Kentrail Davis, OF
• Matt Davidson, 3B
• Jiovanni Mier, SS
• Mychal Givens, SS

Most of them I've seen in some draft discussions as ones to keep an eye out for.   Poythress really interests me based on what I've read, sounds like a good hitter, and Davidson, I've seen described as David Wright-lite.  

Obviously, when selecting anyone in the second round, you are typically past the 50 prospect point, and the odds of finding a good player has dropped to the low single-digit range (basically it is down to 10% by picks 21-30 overall, 10-25% for picks 6-20, and around 40-45% for the top 5 picks, based on past drafts).   But these names currently interests me because of their familiarity.  I'll try to do more research on some of them when we get closer to the draft.

I did some research on Jonathan Mayo's final mock draft for 2008, and found that he was very accurate with his selections:

1. Tim Beckham – correct
2. Pedro Alvarez – correct
3. Eric Hosmer – correct
4. Brian Matusz – correct
5. Buster Posey – correct
6. Kyle Skipworth – correct
7. Gordon Beckham – wrong, but had them picking Alonso in the prior list
8. Yonder Alonso – wrong, but had them picking G-Beck in the prior list, not bad swapped positions
9. Justin Smoak – wrong, first one really wrong, he had Crow going instead to Rangers though…
10. Brett Lawrie – wrong, but I don’t blame him, he had the right position, catcher, who knew the Astros would go mental and select Casto instead? (though to be fair to them, he’s doing as well as Posey is in Advanced A-ball offensively, so they obviously saw something most other people didn’t; Brett Lawrie is doing OK, but at one level lower, and he’s playing 2B, not C; look like 'Stros were right thus far)
11. Aaron Crow – wrong, but included to show that he got 10 of the first 11 players correctly, with the first 6 exactly correct (he also got 12th correct too and 14th correct too))

All in all, I would call that very accurate, particularly for a draft.

2009 Mock Draft: Jonathan Mayo

I will always pay attention to Jonathan Mayo because he was the analyst who thought that Tim Lincecum might fall to the Giants in the draft (he still had them selecting their usual physical specimen pitcher, I think Daniel Bard, but still) plus he did a study that showed how poor a hitters park that the San Jose Giants play in.

He just published his Crystal Ball projection for the first 10 picks of the upcoming draft where the Giants have the #6 pick overall.

He has the Giants selecting Michael Trout:

And now we have our first high schooler going off the board. This is a little bit of a leap, but there’s no doubt Trout has been a late riser on Draft boards. Word is the Giants have been in heavy to see the toolsy outfielder and they are an organization willing to take whoever they want, regardless of perception. In that regard, they could also have interest in Tate. They could have an interest in Wheeler if they wanted to go with the young power arm instead.

This is the first time I’ve seen his name, so he must be opening some eyes with recent hitting and approach. Here’s what Mayo wrote in another article, though this would probably kill the interest of many Giants fans because of the player he’s compared to:

Coming up quickly on the “toolsy” list is a high school outfielder from New Jersey, Michael Trout. Often compared to Aaron Rowand, Trout’s stock has been rising steadily as the weather in the Northeast improved. He’s got speed and should hit for power, especially once he starts to figure things out at the plate more. He’s learning to switch-hit and he’s got a terrific arm from the outfield.

Trout’s season is over now, but he’ll continue to work out for teams as the Draft looms closer. There has been plenty of teams in to see him, including some general managers. His name worked its way into first-round talk a little while ago. Now it’s creeping up higher with at least one team in the top 10 particularly interested. It’s not out of the question that Trout will get drafted before Tate, with signability being a big reason why.

Here is a full report on him by Mayo, below is some key excerpts:

Summary: Trout is a toolsy high school center fielder who was gaining momentum as the weather in the Northeast warmed up. He looks more like a football safety — his position in high school — than a center fielder, but has the tools to play there with plus speed. He just started switch-hitting to enhance his offensive value, and with some changes to his approach at the plate should hit for some power down the line. There is some rawness with the bat, but he has the kind of upside many teams look for in a high school position player, and was moving into first-round conversations as a result.

Power: He should have future average power and has shown some more pop this season.

Strengths: Speed, athleticism, some ability and upside with the bat.

Weaknesses: Still a bit crude at the plate; some teams may not look at him and see him as an everyday Major League center fielder.

Giants Thoughts

Caveat is that it appears that Donovan Tate is rated higher than Trout as a prospect, but with Boras as Tate’s agent, his commitment to University of North Carolina, and being a two-sport athlete, it would probably have to rain money from the heavens to sign him. Still, the Giants could decide to dance with the devil again (Boras was Bonds and Zito's agent when they signed their long-term big money deals with the Giants) and draft Tate instead.

In addition, based on this mock draft, Grant Green would be available to us, as well. He was a Top 10 candidate pre-season, but fell with lack of performance. However, a recent surge has put his name back into consideration for some. Up to now, the premier position players for consideration for the top picks were Dustin Ackley, Grant Green, and Donovan Tate. In fact, in the mock draft, only Ackley and Trout were selected, the rest were pitchers.

Too bad Justin Smoak or Gordon Beckham weren't available to us at the #6 pick this year, it would be a no-brainer to take either of them over the choices available right now. The draft is not very deep this year.

Which brings me to my idea: what if we draft a Boras' client but refuse to offer anything other than the slot amount, which would be around $2.5-3.0M, I would guess. Then that's the best of both worlds.

If, miracles of miracles, the player really wants to play baseball, and decides that he could live with $2.5-3.0M slot and not wait a year in independent ball or go to 3 years of college, then we don't overpay for a Boras client, and that is a win in itself.

More likely, though, if Boras balks and his client refuses to sign, which is what I would expect, the Giants get a draft pick in next year's draft, most probably the #7 pick overall, to go with whatever pick they earn from this year: if they do end up around .500, last year it would have earned them a pick in the 14-18 range.

Plus, we should be getting other picks, a lot of other picks. With Molina and Winn going free agent, the two of them would have been Type A free agents after last season. And if we don't resign Randy Johnson, and he don't continue pitching so lousy and return to his recent norms, he would have been a Type B free agent. That is potentially 5 additional picks coming to us for the 2010 draft.

I think Molina should net a first round pick from a contender, he's good enough and he'll be so insulted that he wouldn't accept arbitration from us, plus he's highly rated. Winn is iffier, I am not sure any team would be willing to give up a first round pick for him, but I can see a team willing to sign him if it's only a 2nd rounder or later. Plus, with him, there is the risk that he might accept arbitration. Johnson would net us a supplemental first rounder as a B, it won't cost the other team anything, but he's pitched so poorly this year that he might not rank as a B for next year's draft.

That's up to 7 picks, 2 within the first 15 potentially, 3-4 within the first 30, and 7 in total in the first 50 picks or so. It would be another draft bonanza, much like 2007's.

Another 2009 MLB Draft Projection

Project Prospect has their pre-season 2009 MLB Draft Board up on their site.

1. Steven Strasburg RHP
2. Dustin Ackley OF
3. Grant Green SS
4. Andrew Oliver LHP
5. Donavan Tate CF
6. Tyler Matzek LHP
7. Josh Phegley C
8. Matt Davidson 3B
9. Alex White RHP
10. Matt Purke LHP

The top position prospects are Dustin Ackley, Grant Green, Donavan Tate, Josh Phegley, and Matt Davidson. The author says that the second tier goes from the 2nd pick to the 11th pick. "There are as many as 10 guys vying for the second overall selection in this draft."

I've gone over this before, so readers should be aware of Ackley, Green and Tate. Phegley and Davidson are new names added to the mix. Phegley, being a C, most probably would not be selected given that Matt Davidson is a 3B and we already have Posey. Here is the description for Matt Davidson: "David Wright starter kit, beautiful right handed stroke should hit for power and AVG". Sounds like a great description to me. The only problem, if this is a problem, is that he's a high school student and would probably take longer to make the majors, when we could use him in 2-3 years, if not immediately.

Here is a report on him from Perfect Games, plus other info:

Matt Davidson is a 2009 3B/RHP with a 6'3'', 205 lb. frame from Yucaipa, CA who attends Yucaipa. Tall strong build, highest-level prospect, extremely strong, very good bat speed, stays inside the ball, patient hitting approach, stays back, goes to the oppposite field very well, deep opposite field HR during game, huge raw power potential, relaxed, short clean arm action on the mound, feel for change-up, low effort, works quick, strong student, potential early-round draft pick.

Through Google, I got a glimpse of what Baseball America said about through the paid Prospects Plus service:

"... strong, pro-ready body fuels his raw power..."

I'm begining to like him a lot as a choice for our pick, though still behind Grant Green, because we probably need a SS prospect more than a 3B one and Green should be ready soon, since he's in college and Davidson is in high school. Still, Green most probably will not be available when we select, and I think Like Davidson more than Ackley or Tate now, though the author notes on Tate: "... upside rivals Strasburg...".

Of course, all of this is way too early, prospects rise, prospects fall, but still, it's good to know who we should be keeping an eye out for this season.

Mock 2009 Draft

Ran across this mock draft at this site called "The Baseball Draft Report".

He has the Giants selecting CF Donovan Tate, who some consider the best prep position player. The other two position players to keep an eye out for are SS Grant Green and CF/1B Dustin Ackley, both college players. He says that Steven Strasburg is clearly the #1 prospect, then there is the next tier of six players: Grant Green, Dustin Ackley, Alex White, Tyler Matzek, Donovan Tate, and Matthew Purke.

Also, MCC has a post on Keith Law's top six draft prospects as well:

1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State
2. Alex White, rhp, North Carolina
3. Grant Green, ss, Southern California
4. Aaron Crow, rhp, Fort Worth Cats
5. Dustin Ackley, cf/1b, North Carolina
6. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri

Giants Thoughts

Obviously, a position player is what we fans want, but the draft is heavy with pitchers. I don't see how Strasburg can fall to us, so don't even think that, unless he has a horrible season or he's seriously injured in some way, he's the consensus #1 everywhere right now.

Assuming the premise that the next group of prospects are interchangeable, I don't see Seattle picking Green with the 2nd pick. They have Carlos Triunfel as their top prospect and he's a SS, in fact a top 2 SS overall, according to McKamey. They got Bedard because they need pitching, and he'll probably be gone (or ineffective) soon, so I would think they would go for a pitcher, so let's say they draft Alex White.

The Padres are up next, and they have a number of outfielders high in their system, but no SS. With only Luis Rodriguez as the SS on their depth chart, I would think they select Green right now.

The Pirates are now strong in position prospects, with McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata, and Walker, plus have young players like McLouth, Doumit, and the LaRoches, I think they would go for a pitcher, a pitcher like Crow, because they will need the pitching sooner than later, as their young position players should be ready in a couple of years.

With one more to go before the Giants, the Orioles have a lot of young position talent, Markakis, Jones, Pie, Wieters, Reimold, Rowell, plus Roberts, but the majors are barren of major league starters, just a lot of question marks for the most part. Luckily they have a number of top pitching prospects, but as BP says, TINSTAAPP, so I would think they would go for another pitcher and select Gibson, a college arm that should be ready to join the young position talent sooner than high school arms, plus be insurance in that quantity will balance the risk of pitchers and deliver some good arms to the young position players within a year or two.

That leaves the Giants with the chance to draft Dustin Ackley or Donovan Tate, and I think they have to go with Ackley because he's closer to the show and shows some position flexibility being able to play CF and 1B (both positions we could potentially need in a few years, depending on how things work out), plus he sounds like he's got some power, which we need.

Of course, things can and will change wildly between now and the draft, players rise, players fall, who knows. But these are the names to keep an eye out for at the moment.

Giants Get 6th Pick of 2009 Draft

According to Baseball America (see discussion here) the Giants have the 6th pick overall in 2009. They beat out the Braves, who tied them, via the first tie-breaking, which is, who had the worse record the year before.

Here are some names that I've seen bandied about on MLB.Com by Jonathan Mayo:

• Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, University of North Carolina: This year's Draft was big for college first basemen types, especially those who hit left-handed. Ackley could help continue the tradition with a sweet swing that has enabled him to hit .405 as the Tar Heels entered Super Regional play this weekend.
• Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant HS, Fla.: A five-tooler and two-way threat, Givens can do it all on a baseball field. He's an extremely athletic infielder with a plus arm. That comes in handy on the mound, where he throws in the low 90s.
• Ryan Jackson, SS, Miami: The Hurricanes lost many top hitters in this year's Draft, but Jackson will be around to anchor the lineup. A true shortstop, Jackson has led Miami with a .374 average entering Super Regional play, to go along with a .441 OBP and .528 SLG.
• Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State: If you were going to pick the top college arm in the Draft, it might be this guy. The All-American went 8-3 with a 1.57 ERA for San Diego State, allowing just 61 hits in 97 1/3 IP (.181 average against), walking just 16 and striking out 133.
• Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, Ga.: It's looking like the Georgia high school ranks will be well represented yet again in 2009. Tate might be one of the best position players from the high school crop next year, he's a toolsy outfielder who's also a top-notch football player, just like his father, former NFLer Lars Tate.

However, it is unlikely that the Giants would get Stephen Strasburg, as he has been the concensus #1 pick for the 2009 draft, so he would have to really flub things up in 2009 or injury himself severely, for him to be available when the Giants pick 6th.

2009 Player Draft Position Watch: 5 games to go

First, sorry guys and gals, but I've been busy with work. Still got the August PQS to do and September (and season's) almost over...

One thing I've been watching is where the Giants will get to draft in 2009. For a while there in July, it looked like the Giants would get another Top 5 pick. For a while in the past week or so, it looked like we could fall out of the Top 10.

Currently, the Giants have the 7th pick of 2009. Atlanta is just ahead of them in 6th, half a game "ahead". That's likely the best they can do, as #5 Baltimore is a cushy 3 games "ahead" with 5 left to play. It would take their resurgence and the Giants collapse to do that. I would rather not see that, I want a nice 3 game sweep of the D-gers, I want to humiliate them, I want them to see their playoff chances die on the field in front of us (however, they have a cushy 3 game lead with 5 left too, over the D-backs, which requires the D-backs to grow a pair suddenly).

The Giants can still fall further back in the draft. They are slightly ahead of the Tigers and the Royals, 1.5 games for both of them. That would push the Giants to 9th in the draft. And Colorado is only 2.0 games back, which would push the Giants to 10th, but with the 11th pick of the draft because the Nats gets pick 9A to replace their 2008 pick since Aaron Crow did not sign. There is a very outside chance that the Giants could fall behind the Reds, who is 4 games back - each would have to win and lose, respectively, all the rest of their games. The magic number for guaranteeing at least the 12th pick overall is one game, either a loss by the Giants or a win by the Reds.

Overall, the Giants look like they are most likely going to get a pick from 6th to 9th overall. Not great position, but there is a chance that a well regarded player with signability (or other) issues will fall to the Giants again. That's how we got Lincecum and Posey, and was slated by draft experts to have a chance for Wieters in 2007 except that the Orioles dashed those plans (I'll forgive them for now since they draft Matusz in 2008 and allowed us to get Posey; if he develops into a good MLB starter, then I'll forgive them fully, but no need for Posey to outdo Wieters, though I wouldn't mind that at all). And I wonder how many teams today wouldn't mind having Bumgarner instead of the guy they selected ahead of us.

Lose-Win Proposition: The Drive for a Top Five Draft Pick

Of course, I would never root for the Giants to lose. But when you are mired in a rebuilding, excuse me, "transitional" year, losing is the tonic for what ails you, as that will result in a good draft pick the next season, giving you another player who may lead you back to the promise land - the playoffs. So while I'm not rooting for the team to lose, as we lose veterans in trades for prospects (make it so Number One!) and unproven prospects take their places and, most probably, not do as well, losing will be the theme of the second half of the 2008 season.


And it won't take much as we are already in good position: we have the 4th pick of the 2009 draft at the moment, as D'Rocks passed us up today, raising us up from the 5th pick. As I've noted before, my study shows that in recent drafts, the best chances of finding a good prospect are among the top 5 picks of the drafts typically.


Here are the current standing (as of right when I checked the standings, there are still some games outstanding but I just wanted to write this post):


1 Nats 37 61 -
1 Pads 37 61 -
3 Marin 38 59 1.5
4 Giants 40 57 3.5
5 Rocks 42 57 4.5
6 Indian 42 54 6
7 Royals 44 54 7
8 Pirates 44 53 7.5
9 Braves 46 51 9.5
9 Astros 46 51 9.5


I don't have the tie-breakers for ties, so I just listed them this way. But I expect the Nats to do worse than the Padres over the rest of the season, and I've heard rumors of the Braves trading Teixiera, so I think they will do worse than the Astros.


For the Giants, until the recent losing streak - which of course coincided with the flu striking much of the team, so it appears that this losing streak was a lovely parting gift from Brian Horwitz, who was the first with it - they had basically been playing .500 after Dave Roberts went on the DL. But this bad losing streak is probably for the best, as it now clearly shows Brian Sabean (and the rest of management) that it would be futile to hang onto any veteran (or to trade for any) just to keep the team competitive this season.


Giants Thoughts


Speaking of trades, according to a number of articles I've read, including this one from the Chron, the Giants and Brewers have been talking trade for a while. Even though the Chron had just the other day said that there was no substantive trade talk between the team, this linked Chronicle article now says that the Brewers are looking at Durham and previous articles had mentioned Jack Taschner, though his performance was a bit lacking against the Brewers, plus that they pulled a minor league player and would be announcing a trade in the morning.


It also mentioned the possibility of a bigger trade of Rickie Weeks to the Giants. That one caught my eye. A previous Chron article had mentioned that the Brewers were looking for a lefty hitter and relievers. We have a lot of lefty hitters, Lewis, Bowker, Roberts, even Randy Winn and Ray Durham are lefties, though if they are going to deal Weeks, they would want a good young player in return, I would assume.


Here's my trade idea: how about Lewis, Taschner, and maybe another prospect (or even another reliever, though Lewis and Taschner might be enough) for Weeks, then also trade Durham for the minor leaguer pulled (speedster - sounds familiar - Darren Ford).


Before I hear the protests at my speculation, hear me out on this. We have outfielders galore, particularly lefty ones, but are lacking in middle infielders, particularly good ones. As much as I like Kevin Frandsen, he's at best a complementary player as a starter, and could end up a very nice infield utility player who can play multiple positions - nothing wrong with that, though I still think he can do more; still, he's unproven and we don't really have many choices there right now, just question marks like Jose Castillo, Travis Denker, Eugenio Velez.


As much as I like Fred Lewis, his defense isn't that great, which is a sad thing given he's been devoting himself to baseball for much of his life. And he's still not hitting for much HR power, but is good for getting on base and extra-base power and some steals, kind of like a lefty Randy Winn with poorer defense but better basestealing. He's never been considered that good a prospect on an overall basis, but has done well. Plus, he's not that young, he'll be in his early 30's by the time the Giants are ready to compete again, 2010 and later.


If Lewis is traded, Roberts would probably start in LF, so I can see the heckles on that, but then we would have Rickie Weeks starting at 2B for us. Rickie Weeks was a former top 5-10 draft pick (I think 5 but hedging), a former top prospect with a LOT of potential, but he's been unable to capitalize on all his talents consistently with the Brewers. In addition, he's been injury prone as well.


They don't have to time to watch and hope he figures things out, as they showed with the CC Sabathia trade, they are playing for now, this season, but the Giants do have the time to see if he figures things out. He is a much better prospect than Lewis ever was, and if the Giants can figure out how to harness that - it will be like getting another high draft pick on the team. It would also clear a corner outfield position for Schierholtz or a key free agent signing (lots of power corner OF usually available), whereas middle infield players like Weeks are not often available in the free agent market, especially not young like he is.

Anytime you can get a prospect like Rickie Weeks without giving up an equivalent level of talent (big assumption on my part, but I don't see the Giants parting with Bumgarner or Alderson for Weeks, or even Sanchez), you have to roll the dice and see what happens. Hopefully the Giants and Sabean can pull this off.

2009 Draft Pick

Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com is an analyst I like to read for draft information, particularly leading up to the draft, because it was he who turned me on to Tim Lincecum in that draft. He actually had the first 8 picks pegged - the week before - but then swapped in Crow for Matusz for the Orioles, which dominoed to other picks, obviously. Still, he publishes profiles on each of the top prospects and that is of good value as well.

The other day he posted information on high school players to keep an eye on for the 2009 draft (and one for the 2011 draft; darn!). He spoke to a scout at the underclassmen showcase at the Urban Youth Academy, which is a baseball academy for (duh!) urban youths. This is probably to counter the trend of there being few African American players in the game today (this concern was brought up last season, if I remember right, because Fred Lewis was one of the few and about how shameful that is given Jackie Robinson).

The A List

These were the top players there, all pitchers:

• Tyler Matzek, LHP: Polished, fastball 89-91 mph, plus curve and changeup
• Beau Wright, LHP: Fastball 89-91 with a hammer. He struck out all five batters he faced and made them look bad in the process.
• Matt Hobgood, RHP: Big-bodies at 6-4, 240, with a power sinker at 91-94 mph to go along with a curve, slider and changeup

The Giants, if they were go for a pitcher, would like Wright with his hammer and Hobgood with a power sinker at 91-94 mph.

The B List

There are some position players here:

• Cameron Garfield, C
• James Needy, RHP: Didn't pitch well, but has been seen better and has a live arm and a 6-foot-6 frame
• Tanner Rust, C: A switch-hitting catcher. Is something.
• Jacob Marisnick, OF: Compared to Hunter Pence. A little raw, but with plenty of tools.

If we wanted to be cute, it would be neat to have a battery of Clayton Tanner and Tanner Rust, but with the selection and presumed signing of Buster Posey (it would be a huge upset if he doesn't sign), that cuts out half of these prospects, leaving Jacob Marisnick OF. We could use a Hunter Pence type hitter.

The A+ List

Unfortunately, this guy is not eligible until 2011 for the draft, and unless all our pitchers' arms fall off, we should be doing better in 2010 and thus not be drafting so high, but I thought I would throw out his name for your future drafting pleasure: Bryce Harper. The scout he spoke with said that Bryce would have been the best high school player in the 2008 draft. WOW! I wonder if he is related to a former major leaguer, I'm aware of a few Harper's.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants are currently tied with two other teams (Rockies and Royals) for 4th worse record in the majors: only the Mariners, Nats, and 'Dres are worse, and really, the 'Dres are just half a game "ahead" of us for the 3rd spot, the Reds are only a game and a half back, and the Indians and Astros are only half game back of the Reds. Heck, even the top two worse teams are only a couple of games "ahead" of the Giants, so there are really 10 teams "battling" for the first five picks overall currently.

My draft study suggested that the population of talent is at its peak in the top five picks overall and drops rapidly from there (and really, it drops rapidly from the 1st to 5th pick as well). Inexplicable drafting and signability issues make some obvious talents available past the top 5, like when Stephen Drew fell to the D-backs and Rick Porcello fell to the Tigers, but it would be foolhardy to expect that one will fall to you in a middle to back of the first round pick.

For the moment, at least at this showcase, there was not any really interesting prospects from the perspective of a Top 5 pick. Too bad Harper wasn't older, sounds like a perfect type of player the Giants should pick in 2009, grabbing someone with high potential. Then again, if the rumors are correct that the Giants have or will sign that Carribean prospect who reminds scouts of Vlad Guererro for $2.5M, he's basically the same - for our purposes - as Harper being available in 2009.

I think the team is shaping up nicely, as I'll cover in an upcoming post, and could be competing for a division by 2010, so adding high potential players who might bust but could be really good is the right thing to do going forward. These players will supplement and hopefully add to the core going forward. And the pitching looks better and better every season, even with a disappointment like Lowry going down.