Friday, May 29, 2009

Next Mayo 2009 Mock Draft

Jonathan Mayo has his second mock draft out now.

He now has the Giants picking someone more conventional:

6. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
This is a spot that shows just how volatile this thing is. Normally by now, a team picking fifth can hone in on a couple of players. But everyone, including GM Brian Sabean, has been running around trying to see as many players as possible. They like Michael Trout, as mentioned last week, but that now seems like it's too much of a reach. A high school pitcher seems most likely at this point. With Wheeler gone, that could mean Turner or Matzek, the top prep lefty in the class. A big arm like Tanner Scheppers could be of interest to them. Want some dark horses? How about ASU starter Mike Leake (they were at his last regular-season start) or Stanford closer Drew Storen.
Last week's projection: Michael Trout


Giants Thoughts

I would note two things here.  First, don't be put off by the changes he makes.  Right now, there's too much data and paradoxically, too little data.   Too much data on the prospects, but too little data regarding each team's thoughts.  So consider these to be mental/logic exercises where he picks up a little more information each week, from scouts and other draft sources, and hones in on what he thinks will happen.

Second, Sabean and gang is usually very closed mouthed about what they will say about prospects.  So any mock draft where you see someone say "Oh, the Giants always do this, the Giants like this type of prospect before," just take that with a grain of salt, the Giants don't always follow a script, else we would be here complaining about Daniel Bard instead of celebrating Tim Lincecum.

Instead, what is good is that this methodology does seem to work for other teams, and thus these mock drafts, over time, will give you an idea of who the top prospects will be available when it is time for us to pick, because it would have accurately determined (within 1-2 prospects) who would have been selected before your team's pick.  Obviously, this only really works within the first 10 picks, at best, though last year, Mayo pretty much nailed the first 15-20 pretty well.  This will give us Giants fans lots to talk about and debate on who the Giants might take.

OK, three things to note:  I don't see the Giants going after a closer when we have Brian Wilson there plus Osirus Matos and Waldis Joaquin, and shouldn't forget, Merkin Valdez.   Plus Henry Sosa could move into the bullpen soon if he can't figure out the magic that moved him into prospect-status as a starter.

While I can see the Giants going for Matzek, who is thought to be the top lefty prep pitcher and perhaps the best prep pitcher overall, the team is filled with lefty pitchers, both in the rotation (Zito and Sanchez; I know Johnson is a lefty but he won't be around long-term) and in the farm system (Bumgarner, Alderson, Tanner).  I think they will probably lean RHP, all things being otherwise equal.

Thus I wonder if they might also look at Shelby Miller, a Texas fire-baller, who has been clocked as high as 98 MPH, and is comfortable at around 93 MPH (prospect report).  The biggest flaw noted is his command has been inconsistent at best, and given the Giants selection of Bumgarner and Alderson, two command freaks, so that would say he would not be selected, but he has lots of projection and a good fastball-curve combo.

However, Matzek's report seems more positive than Miller's.  It notes that his weakpoints are that he's been cruising thus far, doing what he needs to do to get by, plus he may have been "throwing to the gun too much".  Thus he might be able to turn it up a notch once he turns pro.  It also notes that he has potentially three average to plus pitches, and his control was good overall.  

Still, Miller is good enough that Mayo has the Braves selecting him with the #7 pick of the draft, right after the Giants, so there might not be that much difference between the two.  I've seen somewhere note that this draft, after Strasburg, Ackley, and maybe Tate, is pretty much interchangeable for the next 10-15 picks.  

Another top pitcher expected to be around is Tanner Scheppers, who was a Top 10 pick talent last season who fell a lot because he injured his arm late in the season.  He ended up not signing and playing indy ball this year.  His report notes a fastball normally at 95 MPH and ranging from 93 to 98 MPH, and the potential for a power curve, with good command.  

Lastly, a wild card is the Pirates, who in this mock draft selects Aaron Crow, but could pick a position player instead (they could be interested in Grant Green).  If they do go position player, then either Aaron Crow or Zack Wheeler would be available to the Giants also, or perhaps both if the Orioles go with a position player instead as well.

Of course, the Giants could go for the top position prospect left to them, Donavan Tate, who has Boras as his agent and reportedly a big jackpot in mind, since he's signed for college to play both baseball and football, and did I mention that Boras is his agent?  The Giants probably could sign him for a top bonus in the $4-6M range, though you never know with some people, they would rather hold out for top money, like Alvarez did last year.  

Then, there is always Grant Green, a former top 4 consideration, who has fallen so far that he's out of Mayo's Top 20 picks.  Though, I should note, that is partly because his agent is Boras too.  

I don't see Green happening now, he has lost a lot of status, but Tate is a dark horse candidate, as his potential is pretty high.  Still, it's possible you pay him all that money and he is just an average power bat in the majors, and the book is still out whether he can hit for average in the majors.  However, he's suppose to be excellent defensively and if he can stick in CF, then he won't need to hit for as high an average there, plus his power would compensate for that, particularly he can develop into a plus power hitter.  Think Arizona's Chris Young.

4 comments:

  1. FYI: Tim Alderson is a right-hander.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the correction. I was working through the night - no sleep - and just needed a break, so I wrote this post when my mind was probably a bit too squirrelly.

    ReplyDelete
  3. NP.

    Sleep deprived blog posts are essential.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Just ran across a BA note on Crow and Scheppers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=922

    Very interesting on Scheppers, one scouting director noted: "Stuff-wise, he should go No. 2 in the draft." And his fastball was clocked at 98 MPH with a devastating curveball (though inconsistent). He also pitched at Fresno, so the Giants are probably pretty aware of him, presumably visiting his games often since our farm team is there.

    I think that he could be a viable choice for the Giants, especially since he's a college player and closer to the majors.

    ReplyDelete

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