Your 2025 Giants: Losing Draft Picks Is Not So Bad

The Giants has been contemplating signing QO players like Adames and Burnes this offseason, which would cost draft picks, and with the signing of Adames, they have now lost their second and fifth round picks.

Signing Burnes as well as Adames would tthen cost the team its second, third, fifth and sixth selections, part of the price the Giants paid for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold while finishing 80-82.

I thought I would write on the odds of these draft picks ever amounting to a good player, given how much fans worry about losing draft picks.  Like I wrote almost 20 years ago when I analyzed the Michael Tucker punted pick, you are losing a lottery ticket with steep odds of winning, while gaining a MLB caliber player.

Your 2019 Giants: The End of a Dynastic Era, Thanks Bruce Bochy

As we all know, Bruce Bochy retired from the Giants, ostensibly retired from managing, but he's keeping his options open, apparently, by talking about maybe managing again.  He's mentioned working for the Giants in some capacity.  [FYI: wrote this at end of season, but had to wait until I did enough draft research to finish up, sorry]

Congrats to Houston Astros!!! They Beat LA!!!

Astros beat the Dodgers for their first World Series Championship in their franchise history!!!

Your 2014 Giants Are World Champions: Team of the 2010 Decade

For the third time in five years, the Giants won the World Series and are World Champions again.  Bumgarner was going to win the MVP anyway, but he comes in and pitches 5.0 inning to close out the game and protect the lead, even though he was pitching 3 days later instead of his normal 5 days rest.  He would have earned a 4 PQS with what he did in relief, had he started.  

Of course, when the score is 3-2, it is a team effort, Pablo 3 for 3, 2 runs scored, Pence and Belt 2 hits, Morse 2 RBI, Crawford 1 RBI, Panik great double play mitt flip.

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants:  Team of the 2010 Decade!

LA LA Lagging for 25 Years

LA LA Laughable

ogc thoughts

I was vacationing in the LA area and while wandering all over the Magic Kingdom's two parks, I got to noticing that a lot of Giants fans were representing our colors.  There were around 6-8 wearing Giants clothing of some sort.  There were also just as many 49er fans as well, including a Kaepernick uni (Go Niners!).  There was even a pair of Angels fans (so maybe they should count as one).  I also saw a Padres cap.

Two Dodgers fans walking around.

Now, I do realize that Disneyland has more visitors from outside, but still, they sell their season passes too to locals, and they were on school vacation too.  Plus, I went on the weekend, so more locals could have shown up too, as people can do things in the weekend.  In addition, I am counting the people I saw while doing down Downtown Disney, as well as roaming around Koreatown, looking for my daughter's K-pop music store, as well as driving down the lovely I-5 freeway (though mostly just moseying along, a few feet at a time).

Two Dodgers fans.

And that got me to thinking about a post I was going to post up, which I'm now incorporating into this post, which was to point out that the Dodgers have now gone 25 years without a World Series championship, which is their longest stretch without one since their franchise start long one that stretched from the 1800's to their first one in 1955 (71 years).  And sadly for their fans there, the team left Brooklyn within two years of accomplishing their first championship.

Perhaps this relatively long stretch of nothing explains the lack of fervor in their fan base publicly.  Sure, they had a nice season in 2013, but after so many years of not winning, the fans will believe it when they see it.  I can certainly understand that feeling, while I have always worn Giants clothing most of my adult life, when possible, I know that I did not see as much orange and black on the public before that glorious 2010 Championship.  The general fan base had a malaise that would need the shock of a championship to make it alive again.

They also had a stretch of 16 years between their 1965 and 1981 titles, meaning that their glory years were really last in the 1960's, with a brief blossoming in the 1980's.  That's two in the last 48 years.

Of course, the Giants had their 56 year stretch, getting into three World Series but losing each time, which was preceded by a 21 year stretch, where they also got into the World Series three times but lost each time. And for myself, I had been a fan for nearly 40 years before our first World Series Championship.  But with the counter reset by our glorious World Series Championships in 2010 and 2012, we are only one season since our last championship.

Whereas the Dodgers have now gone through 25 seasons without tasting that sweet sweet championship champagne!

While the Dodgers have a lot of money buying up a lot of talent, I think the Giants are in good position to stay relevant and playoff worthy for the rest of the decade, no matter what LA does.  The Giants have spent money to keep their best players around.  They have a number of young players who are blossoming and relatively cheap.  They have a huge mass of pitching talent climbing through the farm system, now filling up Richmond's and San Jose's rotation, plus some good ones in Fresno and Augusta as well, mostly starters but also some very interesting and dominating relievers as well.  They should be able to win the 92 games necessary to get into the playoffs each season and win at least 90 games, which would give them a fighting chance, year in, year out, to make the playoffs, barring catastrophic injury to a core player.

The Dodgers lineup is creaking with their age, only Puig is significantly under 30, Kemp is the only other one under 30 (and will soon enough be 30 YO season in 2015).  Their pitching rotation however, is very young, and if they are able to add Tanaka or Price or someone equivalent to their rotation, they could be even better than the Giants.  

But as we saw in 2013, if your players don't have their health, the team will suffer, and the Dodgers have a lot of health question marks in their lineup (for pitching, it is a given), as well as hitters getting into that nexus of their early 30's when things start to break down in the human body.  So they are just as likely, if not more likely, to suffer from player injuries as the Giants would, which I see as one area of concern from the general fan base.

And the Giants formula from 2009 to 2012 was strong starting pitching and we should have it again in 2014.  Bumgarner is just getting better every year.  Cain after his post-Perfecto lull in PQS DOM starts, ended the season with a strong 7 5-PQS starts in 10 starts, something he could not accomplish since the Perfecto.  Hudson is a pitching machine, generating mid-3 ERA seasons whether AL or NL, pre-TJS or post, and there is no reason his ankle injury should affect him in the future, he got a clean bill of health from the Giants doctors and there has been no reports of set backs in his recovery.

That's a great 1-2-3 rotation.  Then Lincecum probably will be a good 4th starter.  Lincecum ended the season with a nice run, which would have been even better if not so many of his inherited runners scoring while in the care of the bullpen, 7 out of 8, when on average 2-3 scores.  Reducing that to 4 of 8 would have reduced his ERA to 3.48 for his second half starts (excusing his poor start after his no-no, given what we saw what happened to Cain after his no-no).  That's the formula we had in 2009-2012, surviving even a poor 5th starter, like we did in some seasons, to be a Top 5 team in RS allowed, with two starters around 3 ERA and two starters around mid-3 ERA, and if Vogelsong can just be average, that would be a big advantage over other teams because they usually have garbage in their 5th spot (if not their 4th spot).  The Giants would not have spent all that money re-signing Lincecum unless they thought he was close to returning to relevance as a starter.

Combine that with strong offense - lineup calculator with projections estimate the offense to be around 4.5 to 4.6 RS per game - and the Giants easily wins 92 games, maybe approach 95 games.  LA will be strong, but so will the Giants.  Bring it on!

Go Giants!

Your 2012 Giants Are World Champions!!!

Epic!

Wow, what a game!  What a series!  What a season!

If ever there was a team effort for World Series MVP, this was it.  Sure, Pablo Sandoval gave the Tigers a gut punch in the first game with his homers and hit well all through the series, but what got lost among all that is that Barry Zito pitched a great game, to go with his other great game. Without Zito, the march to being the World Champions would have ended seven games ago.

And while Pablo won the game for us in game 1, it was Hunter Pence who scored the first run in the following three games, and without those runs, who knows if we would have scored the runs to win those games, and he drove in the second run in game 2, and the Tigers would have won in regulation in game 4.  And Buster Posey, delivering a key homer once again, that kept the game alive into extra innings.  Of course, Marco Scutaro again was in the middle of the action, driving in the winning run, and I thought it was apropos that he drove in Ryan Theriot, the guy he replaced at 2B, the guy who hit well for us starting at 2B after he healed up on the DL, and helped us bridge from Freddy Sanchez to Scutaro.  And back to the start again, Sandoval stout hitting in the series helped make that happen, as the Tigers had to pitch to Scutaro or face Sandoval with two runners on base.

And what about the defense?  Even though they did not hit particularly well in the World Series, both Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco were making big plays in the outfield over and over again.  Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt as well in the infield, as well as Scoots.  And, in any case, when they did get hits, they got them in key situations, and really, when you are winning games by 1-2 runs, every run is critical and key.

What about the bullpen?  Tim Lincecum was so dominant in middle relief, probably the best middle reliever ever. Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla were great in setup.  Sergio Romo was great in closing out games, closing out the finale in exclamation with a called strike three on AL MVP Cabrera!  And that struck out the side.

And, despite little usage in the World Series, George Kontos and Javier Lopez, without their work in the NL series, we would not have been here, at the end, Champions once more.  For those who didn't see the importance of spending $10M on both Affeldt and Lopez should see what happened to the Tigers with their bullpen, to see why we spent that money on proven players who the team's management knew, and could trust and rely on proven performance.

Most of all, the starting pitching:  Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Cain.  We got three DOM starts in the World Series, and as I noted in my research before, it is DOM starts by pitchers that helps their team win over 70% of the time.  They had 8 DOM starts between the NLCS and the World Series, helping the Giants win the World Championship.  Not that the Tigers fell down like the Cards did - only one DOM start in the seven games - as the Tigers also had DOM starts, in the last three games, but that is where the hitters come in as well as our pitchers, we scored just enough to win each game.  Hitting, pitching, fielding, everyone contributed their necessary contribution to enable the championship, nothing was too small to be of importance, each was necessary for that glorious second championship in three seasons.

San Francisco Giants:  Team of the 2010's Decade

I've been saying this since the late 2000's, that the Giants had the makings of the Team of the 2010 Decade.  Of course, there is the lovely and great starting pitching to start with, Lincecum, Cain, and, clearly, Bumgarner coming up.  Then Sabean has been great at putting together a great bullpen, as he has been able to for much of his time as GM, when the team is good, he is able to pull the trades to build up a great bullpen.  And they have been almost picture perfect for what Baseball Prospectus' study on success in the playoffs found:  high strikeout pitching staff (check!), great closer (check!), and great fielding defense also (check!).

But you still need some sort of offense.  Before this season, we had to accept imperfections because it took time to develop an offense after concentrating on the pitching for so long.  Talent does not come into any baseball system quick enough via the draft and international free agents to fuel a championship.  The Giants, to their credit, has supplemented well in finding gems among the minor free agents, with Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, and Joaquin Arias coming in and contributing significantly from 2009 to 2012.  That is the to the credit of the Giants scouts.

Meanwhile, the Giants picked up offensive gems along the way, Sandoval, Posey, then Belt, Crawford, and Hector Sanchez.  These they grew along the way, while also picking up pieces like Theriot, Pagan, Blanco.  Then traded for the final pieces to this Epic Championship team, Scutaro and Pence, and they were what drove the offense to the championship, as they outscored the Cards and Tigers by a total of 36-7 in the last seven game, averaging 5.1 runs per game while holding the other team to 1.0 run per game in that stretch, keeping the opponents to 3 runs or under in each of the games in the stretch, reminiscent of their streak in late in the 2010 season.

The Giants, by winning their second World Series Championship in three seasons, has laid strong claim on this decade.  If ownership and management can keep this core going forward, this should not be the last of their championships, and hopefully just the beginning.  We should have the core players to at least mid-decade, and if the money can be ponied up, into the latter half of the decade as well.

Thank You Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy!

And we have Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy to thank for this.  Of course, they could not do it without their top advisers like Dick Tidrow and John Barr, Dave Righetti and Mark Gardner, Tim Flannery and Ron Wotus.  Still, they are the ones who get the public scrutiny.

Sabean, what a masterful job he has done, putting together all the pieces, first with the great pitching staff, then now with the great lineup.  Bochy, what a masterful job he has done, balancing the present and the future while steering the team to another playoff berth, then switching to cut-throat managing, managing as if each game, each win, was necessary to prevent elimination.  And, of course, that paid off in both the Reds and Cards series, as they faced six games of elimination and swept them all.  Hopefully the Naysayers can now see that it is not luck that the Giants won, but through excellent decision making on the parts of Sabean and Bochy.

I am thankful that we have the two of them employed for the Giants and hope that the Giants first moves of the off-season be to sign the two of them to another joint extension.  They have earned it, in spades.

Then I hope the next moves after that, in no particular order, be to sign Posey (ok he should be first), Pence, Pagan to long term contracts.  Plus sign Scutaro, Sandoval, Lincecum, and Affeldt to two year extensions.  I would not mind a long term deal for Belt if possible, Crawford too.

And there is money coming in to fuel all these contracts.  Remember, the new ESPN deal doubles the revenues delivered to teams, adding over $11M to each team's coffers each year.  And revenues from MBLAM has been growing each year, it is one of the great Internet e-commerce success stories so far.   And season ticket holders should expect prices to go up again, as well.  Plus there is usually a windfall from being in the playoffs as well.  Lastly, I'm still hoping the A's will pay at least $100M for the South Bay rights, which will pay for a lot of long-term player contracts.

Congratulations again to the 2012 World Champs, Go Giants!

How I Helped the Giants Win Their 2010 World Championship

Baseball is a sport that attracts obsessives like me.  Whether it be wearing lucky items of clothing (like a red thong), eating boiled chicken for a meal before every game you play (Wade Boggs did that), or avoiding touching the foul lines as you go on and off the field, there are many customs and superstitions that players and fans follow in order to win.

Here is my short story about how I helped the Giants win their 2010 World Championship.

It's All in THAT T-Shirt

Over the years, I would notice whenever the Giants would win when I wear a particular article of clothing.  Whether it be a particular set of clothing I wore to work or play, I would notice what wins and try to wear that piece of clothing as often as possible.  I know it does not work, but I do so anyway.

I never found any piece of clothing that was that successful, so I would rotate through all my clothes and not wear anything in particular, except for my t-shirts that had Hall of Famers on them (Mays and McCovey), which, while not excessively successful, I felt that they won more often than not.

Last season, as with most seasons, I could not find THAT lucky piece of clothing that would lead to Giants wins. Until, that is, around mid-season, when I found out that this give-away t-shirt that the Giants gave away to Spanish speaking fans (my sister happen to have gotten one and gave it to me) worked like a charm.  The team would usually win when I wore it.

I called it my Gigantes t-shirt and while I didn't particularly care for the design (and my wife detested it), once I noticed that the Giants would win when I wore it, it started slowly but over time I would save it for what I thought were key games and more often than not, the Giants would win.  I would say the win rate was around 80-90%.  Eventually, I found another t-shirt that I had that also had Gigante on it (my sister got me an Orlando Cepeda signed t-shirt) and started wearing that in my rotation and that didn't change anything, the Giants were winning with both t-shirts.

Now, my wife likes clean clothing, plus in the South Bay, where it is very hot during the summer, it is hard not to sweat up a storm, so I would wear it once and pray that my wife does the laundry soon, so that I could wear it again.  I let her into the secret during the playoffs and she lovingly accommodated me as much as possible so that I would have my shirts to wear.  I don't recall losing one game during the playoffs while wearing those t-shirts (plus HOF shirts when not available).  And that is how I contributed to the Giants winning their first Championship in SF.

Epilogue

Unfortunately, Gigante doesn't work anymore, at least not like it did last season, so it is in semi-retirement.

But by May, I figured out a new "winning" t-shirt:  my Giants World Championship t-shirt with a picture of the actual ring design on the cover.  That recent win streak?  My wife is now allowing the re-wear of clothing if it didn't get too dirty, so I was re-wearing the t-shirt and then my wife happened to do the laundry that day, so I had it for the following two games.  It has been winning about 80-90% of the games on the day I wear it, and I will continue wearing it until it don't "work" anymore.

What are your superstitions that you do to support your team?

Touching Story of Giants Players and Career Clubhouse Attendant

Just ran across a great touching story about how the Giants players stood by one of their friends in the clubhouse, career clubhouse attendant David Loewenstein, who has been suffering from advanced Crohn's disease (and the subsequent diabetes it caused) for decades, here on Yahoo Sports.  Brought a tear to my eye and made 2010 seem even sweeter than before.

Basically, he has been in and out of the hospital - but appears to be mostly in - recently, but the Giants have not fired him (many corporations would have fired long-term disabled people like him already), keeping him on salary and their health care plan, and then the players voted him a full share of the World Series pot, which is worth $317,631.29, plus he will get one of the official World Series rings as well.

He will never get well, but I can wish that he has more better days than bad days.  Take care, wear the ring with pride, hopefully the players' kind and touching gesture boosts his immunity and he can start to feel relatively better, at least for a little while.  All the best!

Your 2011 Giants: Playing Their Cards Right

Well, the fruits of their labours will cometh this weekend as the Giants celebrate their World Series Championship with their fans in an official capacity, highlighted with the Giants presenting World Series blings, er, rings to their players on Saturday.  As the Giants returned almost every player who contributed to the team when they made their push, most of them will be there in a Giants uni to receive their ring.

Travis Ishikawa, who, BTW, made it through waivers - it was just too close to when other teams finalized their 25-man roster, and frankly, he hasn't done enough in the majors yet - is set to report to Fresno Sunday, exactly so that he is free to make the ring ceremony.  It is unsure whether he will be allowed to attend in his uniform, or if he can get a waiver, but I hope he gets over his disappointment and attend:  I think he will, this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity, as you never know.

I heard on the radio too (also about Travis' uni too) from Kuiper that Edgar Renteria is trying to arrange a way to get to the ceremony, since his team is in Arizona and apparently the playing times would accommodate that for him (though I don't see how, Sat games at same time, maybe they are thinking Friday?).  Not sure if Juan Uribe is trying to do likewise, since he'll be in Petco, but especially since he's in Dodger Blue.

Now the Giants are playing the Cards and hopefully they will play them "right" in the sense that they are more relaxed and being themselves.  This was mentioned in the Chronicle's account of Lincecum's 13 strikeout came, how his striking out the side and having fun and being himself, helped the team also loosen up as well.  I speculated in another post that perhaps they are subconsciously thinking about getting their ring, which finally gets in their hands on Saturday, kind of like kids preoccupied subconsciously in the days leading up to getting their Christmas or Birthday presents.  You try not to think about, but you just can't help it.

Game 1:  Westbrook vs. Sanchez

Jake Westbrook:  Westbrook followed up an uneven spring with a shaky first start. He's still trying to refine his location, but that's not all that unusual for a pitcher who has often been a slow starter.

Jonathan Sanchez:  Sanchez's appearance in the home opener is somewhat fitting, since he closed last year's regular season by contributing five innings to the Giants' 3-0 victory over San Diego that clinched the NL West title.

Sanchez has been making progress each year and so I am hoping that 2011 will be a true breakout year - he actually was so-so in the first half of 2010 - where he puts it all together finally for a whole season.  His confidence and maturity shown last season will be tested getting to pitch the home opener for the 2011 Giants.

However, Jake Westbrook has been a pretty steady pitcher during his career, and really did well with the Cards under Duncan's tutelage.  Amazingly, he has never pitched in AT&T and has only faced SF once before, last year in St. Louis, and he took care of them pretty well, 6.0 IP, 7 hits and 2 walks, with 7 strikeouts, 3 R/ER, and that is pretty good peripherals, he was just unlucky with the hits.

Sanchez has done better at home than on the road, slightly (4.17 ERA at home, 4.32 on road), though that is not an absolute, he was much better on the road in 2010, 2.86 ERA vs. 3.26 ERA, which was flukey, as his K/BB was much better, elite even, at home, whereas he was just average on the road, with walks being the bigger problem there.  He was very lucky with his BABIP in 2010, suggesting that he will regress to the mean since he's never really exhibited such a trait previously.

Still, when he's going good, he is in command, and I would note that his BABIP has dropped every season since he became a starter, perhaps exhibiting that he's learning a little something along the way from Cain and/or Zito (though so note that Lincecum has not exhibited such a trait so far).  And he did pretty well in his first start, he was one out away from a 4 PQS start and was just unlucky with the hits (.438 BABIP), as he struck out 8 in those 5.2 IP, plus, of course, his error that sunk his outing.

I would note that he has not normally handled pressure situations well, he can get amped up, like he did in his Phillies start, where he started out bad, calmed down, then got re-amped up when he tripled (which Krukow noted and worried about when it happened).  So the key to this start for him is getting out of the first couple of innings OK, by which point he would calm down and start dominating.  Just on ability, Sanchez should win, but with the pressure of his first home opening start, I have to call the game even, with a lean towards Sanchez for ability and home advantage.

Game 2:  Garcia vs. Cain

Jaime Garcia:  A rough first month of Spring Training is totally forgotten for the second-year lefty. He pitched the season's first shutout and now faces the team against which he tossed the other shutout in his big league career.

Matt Cain:  San Francisco's most consistent pitcher a year ago, Cain picked up where he left off last Saturday by blanking the Dodgers on five hits through six innings. Cain, who has cut down on walks in each of the previous two seasons, issued no free passes.

Two great pitchers going head to head, both at the top of their games, coin-flip who will win, with slightest of lean to the Giants since Giants have home team advantage.

Game 3:  Lohse vs. Zito

Kyle Lohse:  Lohse fell victim to one rough inning in his first start, but then something very encouraging happened: he rebounded and finished strong. He's healthy, and that means there's considerable optimism for Lohse going forward.

Barry Zito:  Considering that an auto accident prevented Zito from performing his usual between-starts routine before his inaugural 2011 outing, he pitched capably. Zito surrendered three first-inning runs before retiring 15 consecutive Dodgers batters.

Lohse has been injury riddled the past two season, and wasn't really that good last season.  Even at his best, he was roughly Zito's equal, but Zito is still Zito and Lohse is a big question mark and also has a poor history against the Giants 4.62 ERA.  Still, I have to wonder if there is any hangover with Zito regarding the horrific auto accident - had he not accelerated at the last moment, it probably would have been a head-on crash, plus it was lucky he rented a Cadillac (yes), else it could have been much, much worse.  I would call it roughly even, since Lohse might be healthy for first time in two years, with a strong lean towards Zito, who has pitched better at home than on the road for the Giants.

Giants Thoughts

I just don't think the Giants will be themselves until after the Cards series, due to all the hullabaloo over putting the flag up and getting the rings, so I would not be too up or down about the results up to then, other than if we are suddenly 5 games behind or something, as that is a bit of a big hole to dig out of.

Fortunately, the team has the internal leadership that I think will help them get out of any problems they have pretty well.  They have the experience and trust built up from last season, as well as the continuity in personnel, to help keep their momentum from last season going.  Plus, upgrades of a number of positions over last season (C, 3B, LF, CF, RF) most due to having better players there all season instead of a part of the season.

Given that focus problem plus Buster Posey, our cleanup hitter, hampered by a respiratory illness until Wednesday - that homer was a great sign he was getting over it - being 2-4 isn't that bad.  Plus, take away one error somewhere and we are 3-3, take away another and we are 4-2, so the swing is that drastic and they were that close to being up instead of down.  The key is that this is early in the season and adjustments can be made to make up any ground pretty easily.

So I'm not worried by anything right now. Brandon Belt looks good but not great, and if he is still hitting poorly overall when Ross is ready, I have no problem optioning him to AAA and securing his services for the 2017 season by doing that (he can't come up again in 10 days, if I recall right, and that would be enough for the Giants to retain his rights in 2017).  And people talk about how good he looks taking pitches, but Bocock was good at doing that too for a while, the big problem with Belt right now is that he has 5 strikeouts in 22 AB, 76% contract rate, where the best players are at 85% and above.

Out of the hitters, Miguel Tejada has not been hitting, but that appears more a bad luck trend because he has an incredible 0 strikeouts in 25 AB, which is a horrible BABIP, .200, and it has roughly been about .300 for his career.  And Pat Burrell has been striking out a lot, but his BABIP is under .100 right now, so he is going through an unlucky patch as well.   His OPS would be OK had a couple hits would have fell in for him in this stretch.

More positively, Mark DeRosa and Aaron Rowand have been hitting well and helping keep the team afloat.  Hopefully they will get more playing time and give rest to the guys now so that they can be fresher late in the season.  And Freddy Sanchez has been hitting really well and been a major factor in helping the team score some runs.   Plus, more importantly for the rest of the season, Pablo Sandoval has been hitting like his 2009 self and worked his way up to the 5th batting position already.

The pitchers look fine, even Wilson, despite the runs, as he was dinked into submission (and Jeremy Affeldt didn't help matters either).  I got no complaints about the starting pitchers, mainly because they have basically just had one start, nothing really to zero in on them yet, other than being disappointed in Madison Bumgarner's short start, but for me, that's no big deal, they are going to happen.

The main disappointment has been Santiago Casilla's performance in spring then the regular season, but then it was announced that he had elbow problems that got him put on the DL for 15 days.  That makes having relievers like Dan Runzler and Marc Kroon available key to surviving a full season, as you never know when a reliever might suddenly lose it, for whatever reason.

The 2010 Giants Are the World Champions: Or Was it Just Luck?

I haven't written in a while.  Big part of it was work, but a strong part of it was that I was sad that there are a contingent of people who believes that Sabean should not get credit for the championship because he was lucky.  El Lefty Malo also picked up on that vein of thought and wrote about it on his great blog; it is a great post that rebuts that argument well.

My Thoughts

But my mind has been racing with various thoughts and so, here goes.

First of all, I would love for any of the Sabean Naysayers to go up to Aubrey Huff or Pat Burrell and tell them that they were lucky to win it all.  I think I would pay to see that.

Luck or Design

A baseball season is full of luck, from each pitch, each ball in play, each inning, each game, each season.   Anyone can easily pick out key elements of every season where if good luck did not happen, that team would have not have been champions.  As I've been writing all over, the naysayers have been exposing their colors by interpreting luck in their way and not giving Sabean much or any credit for winning the championship.

As I've commented around the blogosphere, I think we all can agree that the Giants would probably not have won had they not had their four pitchers, and if we ask all the Sabean Naysayers to raise their hand if they had proposed or agreed with the trade of any of our great young pitchers to get hitting, all of them would be raising their hands.  For all the talk about luck, they forget that it was not luck that the Giants retained all four starters, Sabean made that decision and clearly that was the main reason why the Giants won the championship, their pitching and fielding defense.  Even if we assume he was lucky in getting any particular member of the rotation, he still made the decision to keep them together.

Better Offense NOT Necessary

For all the bemoaning about the Giants lack of offense, while justified in terms of what they produce, none of the Naysayers have yet come to the realization that they were wrong:  a team could win with an offense as bad as that.  And I've been writing about this for years, I've pointed out how the D-gers in the 60's had lousy offenses and two main offensive superstars, Maury Wills and Tommy Davis.  Plus, as I noted in my baseball business plan, if you want to go saber all over that concept, Pythagorean shows the way:  when you have the best defense in terms of pitching and defense, you can win with one of the worse offenses in the league, dominate with only an average one.  And with the pitching taking another notch up with Bumgarner, they might be able to win even with a major league's worse offense.

So, these people say that the Giants cannot win it all unless they trade a pitcher for a good hitter, and yet when faced with the evidence that they were wrong, they chalk it all up to luck.

End of My Rope

I'm tired of all this.  Part of the reason I do what I do is that I don't like to see people suffer.  That's an extended discussion I had with Boof early in the 2010 season, and off and on previously, I try to see the team as it is and set my expectations appropriately.  So I can enjoy a .500 season knowing that they aren't that good anyway, kind of like having a kid you know is average but you love him/her anyway and set your expectations appropriately.  And I try to pass on my knowledge best as I can.

Am I always right?  No, I know I'm not.  Plenty of misses on the detailed nitty gritty.  FYI, I try to toe the balance between safe statements and one that are edgier because I took to heart a saying that you don't gain much by staying safe, you have to go to the edge sometimes.  People who want to get better need to take calculated risks to get better, and so I try.  So I can live with being wrong, that's just part of the "business" if you will, of taking stands on topics.

So if you want to point out stuff I got wrong, I'm sure I can fill a post - my standard length :^) - with my mistakes.  One that I remember vividly on MCC was when I repeated a post on the A's picking up Jerome Williams, not remembering that.  I had a good chuckle the first dozen or so times someone mocked me on that, I can laugh at myself, but the dozens of times after that, it gets really old, like, can you try something new?

But what has been my main thesis and theme all these years?  That Sabean has a plan - pitching, pitching, and more pitching, plus good fielding and some lightening speed.  And he has pretty much delivered on that plan, in spades.  And people call it luck, but the A's had their vaunted 4-Aces rotation (and Mets too) in the early 90's, yet both fizzled - very badly - while the Giants unvaunted rotation - if you look at most experts assessment of the Giants farm system by year, overall one would think that the team wasn't that good with their farm system. 

Cain was often rated below the other top pitching prospects of his time, and Lincecum, one expert would not have been surprised if he fell to the middle of the first round, he expected the Giants to pick up Daniel Bard, who fit his notion of what an ideal Giants pitching prospect looked like.  Sanchez wasn't on anyone's radar, and most did not think much of Bumgarner being selected as high as he was.

Yet they are arguably one of the best rotations in the majors since the Oriole's foursome in the late 60's, early 70's (late Pat Dobson, who was one of Sabean's closest advisors and confidant, was a part of that rotation, which I think is partly the reason why the Giants strategy is what it is).

So I wash my hands over the hand-wringing naysayers.  I realize now that they are what they are, and I can't change them, and as Boof advised, that's OK, we can have a difference in opinion. 

Moving on...

And be their miserable selves, for I really thought that a championship would change most of their opinions, that maybe they can let bygones be bygones, because Sabean succeeded where no one had before.  I mean, isn't this what all of us has been waiting for as Giants fans?  And he did it.  Yet these people can't let go of whatever it is that causes them to hate Sabean (and this depth of feeling is a hatred, as they are holding on hard to it, despite all the evidence against). 

I've been called sad and repugnant (and by the same blogger) for suggesting that these fans acknowledge that Sabean knew what he was doing and thank him for bringing us another World Series team, and now World Champions, after all, they all said that his strategy and plans would not work, and now we have wonderful evidence that they were wrong.  So what do you call people who cannot even acknowledge Sabean for bringing them what they say they have been waiting for all their lives as a Giants fan?

And knowing me, I know I'll probably get soft again and try to get someone to see the light again.  Probably not during this off-season, maybe mid-next season.  But I won't be so naive anymore and think that a World Series championship will change these people. 

2010's: Decade of the Giants

I still stand by my statement for this offseason.  With this core and talent coming up, the Giants should dominate for a good number of years, at minimum to the mid-10's.  And Neukom appears willing to let the payroll jump up to keep that core around for a while more beyond their free agent years and into the end of the 2010's.  At minimum, we control these players to these years:

• Lincecum:  2013
• Cain:  2012
• J. Sanchez: 2012
• Bumgarner:  2016
• Wilson:  2013
• Romo:  2014
• Runzler:  2016
• Sandoval:  2014
• Posey:  2016
• Belt: at least to 2017
• Brown: at least to 2018

I'm sure many of them will get extended at least one year into their free agent years, Cain has already had one.

Then you complement them with vets filling in other positions, it is not like you need great players at those other positions, you just need to fill them with good average players and the offense will take care of itself.  Because with pitching and fielding so good, you can win with a lousy to average offense, thus resulting in a new offensive hero every game. 

Happy Holidays!

The Giants are the World Champs!  Woo Hoooooooo!!!  Let's do it again!

Great Giants Music Video: Michael Franti's "Say Hey" Giants Version

This is a great video montage of the Giants playoffs with a song sung by Michael Franti utilizing the music from his recent hit, "Say Hey", but using Giants in the lyrics.  Not sure how long the link will last (hopefully for eternity, it's a great song!), click it and it hopefully will open.  Enjoy!!!

Michael Franti's Giants Version of "Say Hey"

Happy Thanksgiving for 2010 Giants World Championship!

Lots to be thankful this year for Giants fans everyone with the Giants first World Championship in the City by the Bay!

Decade of 2010's Will be Known as Giants Decade

First of the 2010's to be sure, our core of young players look pretty good - Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Romo, Posey, Sandoval, and hopefully soon Belt, Wheeler, Brown, maybe Runzler, Jones, Rosin, Neal, Surkamp, Stoffel, Culberson, Gillaspie, Crawford, Kieschnick, Noonan, Peguero, Joseph, Dominguez, Casilla, RafRod as well - and if Neukom can come through and bring in the dough necessary to keep the core around for a while (Hello A's:  we want a Coliseum full of dough backed up into AT&T for moving to San Jose).

Because with pitching like our's, if one fails you got the others to back him up.  That's something other teams can't do.  If their ace loses to our ace (and look at Lincecum's record with the Giants, he has beaten a lot more than he has lost to), then they are screwed if their #2 is not that good.  Even if they have a good #2, then they are up against Cain, who, while not as good as Lincecum in PQS DOM, took a step up to elite status in the past two seasons.  Then most teams falter at #3 and we have Sanchez, who while not consistently on a game by game basis, overall delivers more often than not in the DOM department.  And then even if they beat Sanchez, nobody's #4 is as good as Bumgarner.

Then during the regular season we'll have Zito contributing and he'll be great in the middle of the rotation, because as much as he's maligned by the Giants fanbase, he's a good pitcher, just not as good as his contract, but he helped us transition from the Bonds era to the F' Yeah era.  I'm very thankful for that.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

Your 2010 Giants are 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS: After the Bliss

It is all still sinking in.  The glory of it.  The joy of it!

While the game was going, I was anxiously nervous, but not worried, as I've been for a while now.  I had gotten used to the magic that the Giants would somehow win 2 of 3, and that the losses along the way were just part of the process, just as the wins were too.  So the losses did not bother me much, we still had the rest of the series or had already won that series.  And like that tired marathon racer, the Giants fell across the line and won the race to the NL West title.

So as Lincecum dueled with Lee, like a good novel, like a good thriller movie, I was anxious as the drama built up, pitch by pitch, inning by inning, until the 7th inning began.  First, of course, for this season, this playoffs, Cody Ross singles to get on firstbase.  Second, Uribe singles for runners on firstbase and secondbase, first time in the game that either team had a runner in scoring position.

Huff's Beautifully Placed Bunt

Then Huff, oh my gosh, Huff Daddy Rally Thong, our big hitter and RBI during the season, surprises the WORLD by dropping the most beautiful bunt, he almost got a hit with that, if not for a great play by Lee, but the more important thing is he did the job, he got the runners to second and third.  It wasn't surprising to hear that it was his first sacrifice bunt in the season, but not only that, it was his first sacrifice bunt in his MLB CAREER EVER!  You give the best bunters in the game today 10 good pitches to make as good a bunt and they probably couldn't do it 10 times, it was not that easy to do.

The more surprising thing is, and I heard this on KNBR radio, in early September (recall person saying Sept. 1), Bochy pulls Huff aside, said that he's not sure he'll ever call for it, but since Huff might be batting down in the order against a LHP, might give him the call to do it.  In an interview after the clinching game, Huff said that even if Bochy didn't order the bunt, he would have done it anyway.  And that bunt was masterfully done.

That epitomizes the Aubrey Huff that Giants fans have fallen in love with this season.  They said that he's pretty bad on defense, and he works his thong off so that he wasn't half bad.  The way Burrell was coming out for Schierholtz for most of the season, that was suppose to be the plan for Huff and Ishikawa, only Huff played defense well enough that Bochy did not do that in every game played.  I do not doubt that he worked hard to be able to drop that bunt.

Connection with 1962 World Series

I doubt I was the only one thinking of this, but when he dropped that bunt, I immediately thought of how Felipe Alou failed to bunt in a similar situation in 1962's World Series, and how that taught him a lesson in being prepared for anything, of knowing the fundamentals.  Felipe has talked of this moment often and the story was reported again for this World Series.  I'm sure Huff knows the story as well, and maybe that gave him added motivation to learn to bunt well.  Still, I think he would have done the work anyway (just like he would have bunted anyway), he's just that type of player.

Anyway, when Huff was successful at the bunt, I immediately thought of the connection with 1962 and how it was like we went back in time to redo the moment and this time the batter was successful bunting instead of failing, and it seemed like something was going to happen.

Burrell would have made the story great, I thought, took out because he wasn't hitting and especially because he was striking out all the time.  Unfortunately, he could not deliver, though he battled Lee for so many pitches  that I thought he was going to get to lee, he struck out - again.  Then Edgar Renteria strode to the plate...

Renteria 3-Run Blast:  It is Gaaawwwn!

I'll never forget Dave Flemming's classic call on that homer.  The emotion in his voice makes me weepy now, hearing it again.  I was screaming my head off, fist pumping, giving off random yells for the next few minutes.  I couldn't believe it, the Giants led 3-0, and we only needed 9 more outs.

Renteria had apparently jokingly told other players (such as Torres) that he was going to hit one out before the game, so he proved prophetic nonetheless.  He said that Burrell's AB was critical because it allowed him to see a bunch of Lee's pitches and he decided to focus on Lee's cutter to swing at.  His swing was a thing of beauty, and the ball just looked so good coming off the bat too.  And he got enough of it that it went over the fence.

Timmy made me nervous with his 7th, but he calmed down (he admitted he was a bit amped by the homer), and shut the Rangers down the rest of the way in the 7th and 8th.  At only 106 pitches, he probably would normally be given the chance to close it down.  As some said, he earned that honor, but this is why I've been so supportive of Bochy during the playoffs, he played it to win, and to do that, you go all in with your closer, who is fresh and pretty much shut down lately.  People forget, too, that Lincecum is only human, and he and the other starters are going far beyond the IP he had done previously.  Some of them were running on fumes.

Pandamonium

Wilson, as he has in the latter part of the season, shut down the Rangers in order, none of the drama people are used to in his prior incarnation.  Somewhere, in the latter part of the season, it just clicked for him.  Wish I knew when the Beard started up, but he suddenly just started becoming The Machine, getting outs without a lot of the drama that giving up runners generates.  Nen-like, even.

I was shopping with my wife and daughter (she's going on a Girl Scout backpacking outing and need equipment), so I brought my portable radio so that I could listen while shopping, but it failed me in the Target store, missing the drama (luckily) but held in suspense, because Timmy had just gave up the homer and was in the process of walking Kinsler.

But as fate would have it, the next store was Costco, and as we stroke into the store, the game was being played on one of their big screen TVs, and the bottom of the 9th was starting, so I stayed and watched to the clinching strikeout of Nelson Cruz.  I gave out a yelp, among the people who were suddenly my friends, and hugged my daughter, who stayed and watched with me while my wife was away.

It was so great getting to see that joyous celebration and not just listen to it.  I wish Fox would have followed it live, it was neat that they repeated the scene, over and over again, from seemingly each of the cameras they had operating at the game, but after a while, I just really wanted to see the live celebration, but then they cut to a commercial and reality returned and I had to go shopping.

Giants Random Thoughts

I have been reveling in the joy that I'm experiencing now that my Giants are World Series Champions.  I've been reading articles and watching videos, and my reaction to the win was actually pretty understated.  I was so pumped by Renteria's homer, I was screaming and yelling for a while, but as the game wound down, the win seemed anti-climatic somehow.  But I would now be reading or watching, and something would hit me randomly, and I would get all weepy with joy.  I expect this to last a while.

This was a team effort.  That was clear by the new hero every night, and yet certain names would continually pop up:  Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross, Uribe, and now Renteria.   And, of course, the pitching staff epitomizes the team concept, each pitcher can only take care of what they can, then let another pitcher try to do the same, and win.  Having a Tim Lincecum is great (Cliff Lee), but how much better is it having Matt Cain (Colby Lewis), and then there is Jonathan Sanchez (CJ Wilson), and then the coup de grace, we also have Madison Bumgarner (no answer).  Then you have the bullpen, because no starter finishes all their games now, Cainer had 4 and people are amazed.  And THEN you have BWills, Fear the Beard, The Machine, and he shut down the opposition.

This team reminded me of the 1990 Reds, a team that didn't have any superstars, had a lot of players who had career years that you couldn't expect to do ever again.  Of course, we do have Timmy, 2-time Cy Young winner, but he had a down season (for him) in 2010.  This thought came to me during the end of the season, and it still seems like it is something that still fits, now that they won.

Off-Season:  Sign 'em Up!

Now comes the hard work of figuring out who stays and who goes, plus who wants to go.  Huff is probably the number one priority and I just don't see him not signing with the Giants.  He "only" got a 2-year, $16M contract in his last big contract, and he was three years younger.  I don't see how he doesn't sign a 2-year, $12M contract like Franchez and DeRosa did.

Number two is Cody Ross, and the Giants control him for one more year of arbitration, so it should be easy to get him on board.  I don't see him going to arb, the Giants are usually fair, and he is like Cinderella, with the pumpkin ride and dancing with royalty now, he will want to be here.  He made around $4.5M in the 2010 season and reports had him at $6M for arb in 2011.  But with his down year in 2010, I think somewhere in the $5M range is probably what he gets.  The team needs power and he can provide it, I see him being like the Jeff Kent acquisition, not that he's as good, but he has shown power before and should be able to deliver it for us in RF in 2011.

Number three is Pat Burrell.  He has already said that he's willing to come back as a bench player in 2011.  I don't see him changing his mind, though the Giants might have other plans for him eventually and start him again.  And if he's willing to be a bench player, that means he's only looking for $1-2M in salary.  He should be a slamdunk.

However, I'm not sure how this works in the outfield.  It actually works best if Burrell is on the bench, as the Giants will have Torres, Ross, Rowand, and Schierholtz battling for the starting spots.  Nate could be odd man out or maybe in a platoon with Rowand, perhaps.  Then there is 1B and if the Giants go with Ishikawa at 1B, then Huff would be in the OF for sure.  Lots of decisions to be made.

Shortstop is another area.  Renteria is certainly not getting his option picked up.  He might be good as a utility MI for $1-2M, but I doubt he would want to do that, he has his money, he has his business ventures, he'll probably want to retire up on top, and move on to the businesses he wants to do.  Uribe is probably going to be offered more by another team than the Giants are willing (able?) to pay.

The Giants could go with Brandon Crawford, as his D has gotten rave reviews, while his O hasn't, as a lineup with Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Ross, Burrell, Sandoval, SS is actually pretty good, particularly if Sandoval started hitting like Pandoval again.  That would save money as well as give a prospect a chance to start.  There is also Emmanuel Burriss as well, though most had him pegged as a 2B in the majors.

The pitching rotation, as I noted in a prior post, is set for years.  The bullpen is pretty much set for 2011, with the only probable change being Mota being let go as a free agent, as the Giants still have Chris Ray from the Molina trade and still control his contract, I think he's up for arb.

It was also announced that Dan Runzler will be tried at starting pitcher for 2011, so he's out of the bullpen now and will be the emergency starter in training in 2011, as the Giants traded away Pucetas and Martinez and don't really have anyone high in the system who might be able to step in, just in case of injury.

Re-Peat?  Three-Peat?  Quad-Peat?

So most of the Giants keys to the playoffs should be back next season, and there are a lot of situations that suggest improvement.  The Giants were winning at over a 2 of 3 pace after Posey took over, for half a season and into the playoffs.  He'll be starting all season in 2011. Sandoval should be back to normal now that his personal travails are over.  We'll have Torres for a full season too.  Probably Burrell too.  Bumgarner definitely, and a newly mature Jonathan Sanchez will be dealing for more of the season than he was in 2010, when he seemed up and down until September and DeRosa gave him that tip.  Lopez and Ramirez all season, plus Affeldt look like his old self by the end of the season, if he can approach his 2009 form, that would be a great addition.  I think Ray can be helpful in the setup situation as well.  And, of course, Cody Ross all season.  There is no reason right now to think that 2011 couldn't be a similar season.

Now that the Giants got their first World Series championship, now I want more.  I think we have the base core of players who can lead us to multiple trip to the big show during the 2010's, as I've been writing here for a while.  With our pitching, we should be able to seal the deal at least another time or maybe two.  The A's and their fans have been flaunting their championships for many years now, and we need three more to catch up, four to pass.  Of course, most of them happened 40 years ago and the last one 20 years ago, so they are like the Raiders, living on former glories.  Maybe they'll have better luck in San Jose.  In any case, I think we can come closer but that's a tall order to catch up and to pass.  Nonetheless:  Go Giants!

Your 2010 Giants are 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!

Woo hoo!

Edgar Renteria MVP for his superlative work:  he has earned his $18.5M!  Maybe he'll be willing to come back for less ($1-2M) and be back-up MI, but I doubt it.  But then he could start in playoffs again after resting most of the season.

Q for Posey about a week ago:  "This can't happen every year, can it?"  Buster Posey:  "Why Not?"

Why not indeed!  As Timmy would say, "F' Yeah!"

ADDENDUM:  I added this video as I thought it was appropriate when the playoffs started, and it really seems appropriate now.  Again, I'll note the singer's passing resemblance for Tim Lincecum.