I will address the End of Season press conference in another post. I normally try to find a full transcript, but having a down period in life, don’t have the time (or will) to listen and write down each and every word. I will see what work around satisfies me.
ogc thoughts
This reminds me of the period before the end of the 2010 season: do Giants fans believe in the abilities of the Baseball Ops leader (Sabean, Posey)?
For Sabean, I decided, despite all the noise of bad waiver claims and trades and signings, that Sabean’s skill in identifying skilled players, like Kent, Rueter, Snow, Schmidt, and Burks, was real. And it showed with his keeping all the key prospects (and not trading them) for the Dynasty: Cain, Lincecum, Sandoval, Wilson, Romo, Posey, Bumgarner, Belt, Crawford. And also picking up players like Affeldt, Huff, Torres, Uribe, Sanchez, Ross, Scutaro, Blanco, Petit, and many others.
We have a similar situation today, with people not believing that Posey knows how to build a bullpen, which broadens to a roster, because of the historic level of losses this season (4th worst in franchise history). Does Posey have no clue what a good bullpen looks like, as many people think?
Posey is Not an Idiot
I’ve decided that a catcher who caught elite bullpens, like he did 2010-2014, plus caught great pitchers, from Lincecum to Webb, knows what is good pitching. To steal from Sabean, Posey is not an idiot. And I believe that what he said in this presser - that he misjudged the bullpen - was only part of the truth.
2026 Was Always a Developmental Season
I believe he essentially slid one past the fans. While he fielded a competitive team per analytics, the bullpen was essentially a bullpen-wide try out. It took a team wide injury wave to push the team to the depths, but, in any case, that wasn’t a playoff ready bullpen, by any measure. He entered spring training with one proven healthy reliever (Butto) and lost him to a rare blood clot issue (though second for the Giants after Beck). Every reliever on that Opening Day roster had huge question marks.
You don’t go into a season like that unless you planned on it being a developmental, transitional season. Because every reliever was unproven, we didn’t know with any certainty that the Giants would have a viable bullpen, let alone playoff ready one. Perhaps he thought that they could be good enough so that they could pick up reinforcements before the trade deadline, but that obviously didn’t happen. Certainly the analytics suggested that they should be okay, in the aggregate.
And there’s his misjudgment, as well as my point that he viewed this season more as development than competitive. That wasn’t a competitive bullpen, by any measure. He appeared to be just hoping the analytics were close enough to reality, because most of them had projected to be average or better.
And the analytics confirm this view of team wide quasi competitiveness as well. As reported by The Athletic, the Giants should have been roughly a .500 team, by the base run metric, before the trade deadline. Even by end of season, 2026 Base Runs (Fangraphs) had the Giants as 79-83, just two wins from .500, which is pretty much what many of us thought at the start of the season, roughly a middling team. Had the team been around .500, sure, fans would still be complaining, but the team would have been wild card contenders, near the deadline, close enough though still not there.
However, injuries just made things worse. Fans are mad about the three big contracts, but from Opening Day, all three were bothered by significant injuries, requiring surgery for Chapman and Devers, and shutting down Adames for nearly two months. That they were unable to play up to their abilities was a big part of this bad season, though it was a thoroughly all across the roster type of bad, except for Devers, Eldridge, Schmitt and Arraez, plus maybe Kilian and Miller, out of the opening day roster.
Building for the Future
And so far he has kept the key prospects that hopefully will lead the team in the future (though reportedly offered Josuar for Abrams, but it could be like the Toronto Cain/Lincecum situation, where they were asking for him). Some fans wanted to trade Eldridge, especially one person on The Athletic was repeating it often, to get top pitching like Skenes or Skubal. Luckily, his value was deemed good enough to keep.
This was the reverse of when fans were demanding that the Giants trade Cain or Lincecum to Toronto for their OF, simply because they needed hitters. If you are trading off 6-7 seasons of control of a possibly great player for 3-4 seasons of control of an average player like Alex Rios (who had one good year then was essentially below average, after that), you better be sure of what you are trading, is it Lincecum or is it Foppert? Or Eldridge or Luciano?
I Want to See This Group’s Future
So I’m still backing Posey for now. Just like back then with Sabean, I don’t know what will happen, but the great prospects situation today (MLB Pipeline named them the Farm System of the Year, after rising from 25th last season to 5th this season) is such that I want to see how it all turns out. Because, if enough of them develop, it can be amazing!
But this requires patience on the part of Posey, to wait out the prospect development process, and not try to jumpstart the team by trading away good to great players, for players getting close to being over the hill, like Rios was (fans also wanted to trade Cain for Brewers power hitting 1B, Jenkins). Fans have zero patience, but hopefully Posey does. I can’t say that Posey will be successful, but there’s enough to believe that he can be successful. Like before with Sabean, it will be a year by year evaluation.
But it currently looks great. Among position players, we have Eldridge, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Level, Davidson, and Jordan, who are Top 100 prospects. Among pitchers, we have Flora and Marquez, plus I expect Bolemon and perhaps Waechter to rise to that level at some point in the near future. Bresnahan looks promising as well, plus there’s Martinez and Cayama.
Fans always want superstars at every position, but if you’ll recall the dynasty period, we only had one, Posey, and a lineup full of good average players, who sometimes had a peak season. Plus Lincecum was already in his decline phase in 2010, and Cain and Bumgarner were very good, but not great in the regular season (but elite in the playoffs, especially the World Series). We have a budding superstar in Eldridge, and Gonzalez has a ton of potential, since some are already talking him up as the #1 overall prospect for 2027.
If anything, we need more top pitching, but Webb should still be good for a number of years, and maybe the Giants sign one in the coming years, like Sonny Gray or Kevin Gausman, to go with the prospects. I love the potential of this group of young prospects and can’t wait to see how they do.
And, of course, help in the bullpen, especially leverage relievers. We have some potential with Rodriguez, Smith, Foley, Hentges, Butto, Peguero, and others, but getting a healthy proven reliever, hopefully the Affeldt of this era, is ideal. And I assume they will pursue the next Casilla, as well, like they did last offseason, finding Kilian.
But losing Spencer Miles to Toronto was a huge loss and does not reflect well upon the new pitching organization’s leaders’ capabilities. Something to monitor for the future. And hopefully they do much better with a full season under their belt. But we’ll see, given our needs in the bullpen, losing a great reliever, as Miles performed as this season, isn’t a great look.
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