The Giants swept the weekend series with the Dodgers, as technically their one loss was the game moved from the rained out game earlier in the month, but according to official rules (per Schulman), the loss counts as part of this series, so there you go, sort of. Still, winning a four game series is good, doing it against the Dodgers is great. I thought I would cover some subjects (plus celebrating winning a series against the Dodgers).
As always, thank you to Baseball-Reference.com for their data, I would not be able to do any of my work without their wonderful database.
Showing posts with label Pablo Sandoval. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pablo Sandoval. Show all posts
Monday, April 30, 2018
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Your 2018 Giants: Roster Battles After Player Cuts
The Giants recently re-assigned a number of players from their major league spring training camp. With Opening Day happening in two weeks, I'll take a look at the roster battles and how the 25-man roster is shaping up.
NBC reported the following cuts:
NBC reported the following cuts:
Eight players were optioned to minor league camp, including a couple of guys who have big league experience. The optioned players are: Tyler Herb, Pierce Johnson, Chase Johnson, Reyes Moronta, Steven Okert, D.J. Snelten, Aramis Garcia and Miguel Gomez.
The Giants also reassigned five players to minor league camp: Tyler Cyr, Jose Flores, Dereck Rodriguez, Madison Younginer and Alen Hanson.
With the cuts, the Giants are down to 47 players in camp.
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
2017 Winter GM Meetings: News and Thoughts
I should have probably started this Monday, but wanted to get my other posts out first. The news leading up to the meetings were Sabean's two interviews in the week prior to the start of the meetings.
The first was in the new coaches announcements (also, Rick Schu announced as assistant hitting coach at some point), when Sabean noted that the team's main areas of improvement that they are focused on are defensive CF, starting 3B, and bullpen improvement.
The second was in an interview he gave The Athletic's Tim Kawakami, where he noted that they will have to make tough choices, saying that beyond Posey and Bumgarner, anyone else could be in play, as long as the move improves the Giants. I assume improvement means qualities that was mentioned before, getting younger and more athletic, better defensively.
I will add what I know to have been said in recent days in the post below, and either comment future comments or edit the post with new news, haven't decided best route yet.
The first was in the new coaches announcements (also, Rick Schu announced as assistant hitting coach at some point), when Sabean noted that the team's main areas of improvement that they are focused on are defensive CF, starting 3B, and bullpen improvement.
The second was in an interview he gave The Athletic's Tim Kawakami, where he noted that they will have to make tough choices, saying that beyond Posey and Bumgarner, anyone else could be in play, as long as the move improves the Giants. I assume improvement means qualities that was mentioned before, getting younger and more athletic, better defensively.
I will add what I know to have been said in recent days in the post below, and either comment future comments or edit the post with new news, haven't decided best route yet.
Tuesday, November 07, 2017
Your 2018 Giants: The Options and the Opt-In
Per news reports, Cueto chose not to use his opt-out, opting in to stay with the Giants. In addition, today, it was announced that the Giants picked up the options on Bumgarner, Moore, and Sandoval.
In addition, in the press conference, they announced the hires of Curt Young as new pitching coach and Alonzo Powell as new hitting coach. Both were astonishingly recommended by their predecessors, Righetti and Meulens, respectively.
They also announced that their top areas for improvement are starting CF, starting 3B (Sandoval looking like a backup utility player at the moment), and the bullpen.
In addition, in the press conference, they announced the hires of Curt Young as new pitching coach and Alonzo Powell as new hitting coach. Both were astonishingly recommended by their predecessors, Righetti and Meulens, respectively.
They also announced that their top areas for improvement are starting CF, starting 3B (Sandoval looking like a backup utility player at the moment), and the bullpen.
Saturday, July 22, 2017
Your 2017 Giants (maybe): El Gordo Sandoval Rotund to the Giants
As all the whispers and tweets have intimated, Pablo Sandoval has signed with the Giants on a minor league contract, after being dumped by the Red Sox, with one of the largest owed amounts left on a contract ever. He will start off with San Jose to DH one game, then head over to AAA Sacramento to play 3B and DH as the Giants try to figure out what he has left.
The reports are that he is now healthy and slimmer (as always, it's all relate for him), and he was contrite in his return, apologizing to anyone and everyone in Giants Nation, though that last ball of the 2014 World Series apparently is not returning rightfully to the Giants (the rumor is that he sold the ball off).
ogc thoughts
Personally, I would not have pursued this. Been there, done that. And words have been said, words that apologies won't really salve and didn't for me. Worse, the ball was not returned, he dissed the franchise and all the fans by reportedly selling it off to someone (perhaps a Royal's fan who burned it; who knows? But he was pretty angry about the Giants back then, so I can see that happening).
That said, I am personally OK about his return, and don't think it's the bad move that some in the media and the fans have painted it. Just because Gillaspie is younger does not mean that he's a better player than Sandoval. Plus Nunez is probably traded, Hwang just got sent back down to AAA because he just hasn't adjusted to playing off the bench and spot starting, Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo are both injured by HBP, leaving only backups like Calixte and Tomlinson to play 3B. Sandoval could be the replacement without hurting development if he shows anything in the minors.
And, yeah, it don't look good as far as PR goes to invite back with open arms a player who dissed the Giants so badly that not only the bridge is burned but so is the rest of the road back to the Giants. But this is a no-lose situation for the Giants.
If he fails, he stays in the minors, don't cost us a 40-man prospect, nor that much money. Only their dignity takes a hit.
If he plays well enough that the Giants could bring him up, he probably is only coming up if Nunez is gone, and a roster spot is then opened up on the 40-man, as he won't get us a close or great prospect, just an intriguing prospect with a few years to go, like we gave up when we traded for him. He's not coming up unless he's starting, and I can't see the Giants dumping an interesting prospect for nothing if he's not starting.
If he starts for the Giants, and then fails or is just passable, that just makes a bad season worse. That's fine with me, I want to get as good a draft pick next season as possible, a Top 3 ideally, a Top 5 appears to be likely, at worse a Top 10 pick (though that would disappoint me greatly, at this point, I really want a Top 3 pick).
If he starts for the Giants and hits like he used to hit for us, that's found money, and hopefully the Giants can sign him for the next season. If he can keep his weight down and hit the way he can hit, he's worth the money we would have to pay him, which would not be much for 2018 and maybe 2019 too because of how bad he was with Boston. Other teams will either think that he's only good with the Giants or that he was only lucky, and not bother to try signing him on the cheap for 2018. He'll have to prove he's back over a year to get other teams to take strong interest in signing him up for bigger money than the vet minimum, and that pushes it out to at least 2019.
And at this point, I'm only worried about 2018, and there is not a lot that says that 2018 will be that much better than 2017 right now, we need a lot to go good for us to have sufficient hope that 2018 is better. There are a lot of "ifs" involved with us competing for the playoffs in 2018.
Summing up, having a Sandoval who can hit like he did before is a great value to have on our team for 2018, as he won't cost much but would contribute a lot. Having a Sandoval who hit like he did for the Red Sox is a great value to have for getting our team that Top 3 2018 Draft pick.
I understand how some fans can be so passionate about this. But being a GM requires decision makers to be like investors, very dispassionate about decision making. And if one is focused on what makes the Giants better in 2018, then the move makes sense, as it is a no-lose situation, no matter what Sandoval does.
I personally would not have signed him (and that's the emotional side of me), and I will admit that I was going to write a post stating, "No Mas, Por Favor". But now that he's here, I can see the various benefits of having him around (dispassionate side), I won't let my emotions blind me any further as to the merits of the situation. I know that I'm not always right about the Giants moves.
And this is probably the right move for the Giants, given all the benefits I listed above, and I can live with the decision without making a hissy fit, as some have done (particularly one media type who seems to love to take digs at the Giants all the time, most probably because he's followed the A's for so many decades, it is like he's on their payroll; or maybe it's the Stockholm Syndrome). It will certainly be more interesting to follow than how the team has been playing this season.
The reports are that he is now healthy and slimmer (as always, it's all relate for him), and he was contrite in his return, apologizing to anyone and everyone in Giants Nation, though that last ball of the 2014 World Series apparently is not returning rightfully to the Giants (the rumor is that he sold the ball off).
ogc thoughts
Personally, I would not have pursued this. Been there, done that. And words have been said, words that apologies won't really salve and didn't for me. Worse, the ball was not returned, he dissed the franchise and all the fans by reportedly selling it off to someone (perhaps a Royal's fan who burned it; who knows? But he was pretty angry about the Giants back then, so I can see that happening).
That said, I am personally OK about his return, and don't think it's the bad move that some in the media and the fans have painted it. Just because Gillaspie is younger does not mean that he's a better player than Sandoval. Plus Nunez is probably traded, Hwang just got sent back down to AAA because he just hasn't adjusted to playing off the bench and spot starting, Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo are both injured by HBP, leaving only backups like Calixte and Tomlinson to play 3B. Sandoval could be the replacement without hurting development if he shows anything in the minors.
And, yeah, it don't look good as far as PR goes to invite back with open arms a player who dissed the Giants so badly that not only the bridge is burned but so is the rest of the road back to the Giants. But this is a no-lose situation for the Giants.
If he fails, he stays in the minors, don't cost us a 40-man prospect, nor that much money. Only their dignity takes a hit.
If he plays well enough that the Giants could bring him up, he probably is only coming up if Nunez is gone, and a roster spot is then opened up on the 40-man, as he won't get us a close or great prospect, just an intriguing prospect with a few years to go, like we gave up when we traded for him. He's not coming up unless he's starting, and I can't see the Giants dumping an interesting prospect for nothing if he's not starting.
If he starts for the Giants, and then fails or is just passable, that just makes a bad season worse. That's fine with me, I want to get as good a draft pick next season as possible, a Top 3 ideally, a Top 5 appears to be likely, at worse a Top 10 pick (though that would disappoint me greatly, at this point, I really want a Top 3 pick).
If he starts for the Giants and hits like he used to hit for us, that's found money, and hopefully the Giants can sign him for the next season. If he can keep his weight down and hit the way he can hit, he's worth the money we would have to pay him, which would not be much for 2018 and maybe 2019 too because of how bad he was with Boston. Other teams will either think that he's only good with the Giants or that he was only lucky, and not bother to try signing him on the cheap for 2018. He'll have to prove he's back over a year to get other teams to take strong interest in signing him up for bigger money than the vet minimum, and that pushes it out to at least 2019.
And at this point, I'm only worried about 2018, and there is not a lot that says that 2018 will be that much better than 2017 right now, we need a lot to go good for us to have sufficient hope that 2018 is better. There are a lot of "ifs" involved with us competing for the playoffs in 2018.
Summing up, having a Sandoval who can hit like he did before is a great value to have on our team for 2018, as he won't cost much but would contribute a lot. Having a Sandoval who hit like he did for the Red Sox is a great value to have for getting our team that Top 3 2018 Draft pick.
I understand how some fans can be so passionate about this. But being a GM requires decision makers to be like investors, very dispassionate about decision making. And if one is focused on what makes the Giants better in 2018, then the move makes sense, as it is a no-lose situation, no matter what Sandoval does.
I personally would not have signed him (and that's the emotional side of me), and I will admit that I was going to write a post stating, "No Mas, Por Favor". But now that he's here, I can see the various benefits of having him around (dispassionate side), I won't let my emotions blind me any further as to the merits of the situation. I know that I'm not always right about the Giants moves.
And this is probably the right move for the Giants, given all the benefits I listed above, and I can live with the decision without making a hissy fit, as some have done (particularly one media type who seems to love to take digs at the Giants all the time, most probably because he's followed the A's for so many decades, it is like he's on their payroll; or maybe it's the Stockholm Syndrome). It will certainly be more interesting to follow than how the team has been playing this season.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: Reviewing Schulman's Pre-Season Questions
Hank Schulman had a nice rundown review of the key questions he had regarding the Giants in the pre-season. I wrote some comments down and thought I should post them here as well, with tweaks.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Your 2015 Giants: Winter Meetings Review
The Giants did not make many moves during the winter meetings, getting two minor leaguers via the Rule 5 draft, minor league portion. Just before the meetings, they offered salary arbitration to all their eligibles: Blanco, Hanchez, Ishikawa, Belt, Crawford, and Petit.
Evans noted that the meetings were productive in that the Giants have determined that their best options for acquiring the players they seek (mentioned previously, in order of priority, SP, 3B, and LF; though no mention of reliever, they did note their interest in Romo at some point, though in a blanket statement regarding all their free agents) is via free agency, not trades, due to the lack of surplus at the major league level. Though perhaps something could be done via trading prospects (given the way the statement was made, I think it can be inferred that the Giants see better options via free agency than via trades using prospects, suggesting either that the price via trade is too high or that our prospects were not viewed as highly as some might think. It could also mean that every time they approach someone for a trade, they ask for one of Panik, Susac, Duffy, or perhaps Adrianza, someone the Giants are unwilling to give up).
So really, nothing much happened...
ogc thoughts
Being Used by Free Agents
Other than they were used by Lester to squeeze the Cubs into giving him the money he was shooting for. Once he got that, he told the Giants "Thanks, But No Thanks", even though (as in the Sandoval pursuit, and Carlos Lee before), they had indicated that there was still room to go in the negotiations. They came in third this time (they were told buh-bye a day early, apparently it was Cubs vs. Red Sox, but rumors had it that it was the Cubs all along because of Epstein and Hoyer, and the allure of winning one for Cubs, and reportedly because he was upset by the low-ball offer they made in spring - though some would think something like 4 years and $75-80M is plenty good).
Speaking of butt-hurt players, apparently (per Pavlovic) some in the Giants organization feel that Sandoval had decided against the Giants long ago (including Bochy in this CSNBA interview, but I would note that he took the high road, noting that players have options and he praised Pablo for all that he gave to us). Given what we know now, his "I got two years to get fit" statement was the first overt sign that he hasn't been happy with the Giants.
I wonder what it could have been. Perhaps it was the threat to put him in AAA if he didn't get into shape back in 2010? Or even before, because he was sat in the 2010 World Series, maybe he was embarrassed by that (or his entourage got him to feel that he was dissed by this)? Perhaps it was how the team treated him when he was accused of rape by a woman back early in his Panda days? Perhaps he didn't like what the Giants team leaders, like Posey, said to him in the prior offseason? Perhaps he was upset by the initial contract offer (which, BTW, his agent totally misplayed and then made it all public, shows what a novice and how unskilled a negotiator that his agent is). Perhaps it wasn't the team, maybe he is still shocked over his mother almost getting incinerated in the San Bruno PG&E pipeline explosion and just wants to get away? Lots of different possibilities, we'll probably never know why, though with the leak that the Giants kind of knew he wasn't coming back, perhaps his side will stop taking the high road too and leak why he was unhappy (they had been particularly leaky in the spring, and drew first blood by releasing the offer information, so it would not surprise me if they do).
So his decline the past few years might be more related to his discontent, which might lead to his resurgence with the Red Sox (what I would call the Greg Minton Syndrome: he was very unhappy with his salaries and openly said so, then once he was getting the big money from the Giants, he didn't play as well anymore, so when he left for Angels, I wasn't unhappy, but then the bum started pitching well again...). Now that he no longer has this weight on his mind, perhaps he will play up to his 2011 potential. Or play up to his contract, whereas before he played down to it. Or maybe his buddy David Ortiz will kick his butt in the right way and get him to play up to his abilities.
But what I've seen is an unmotivated player, who even in his free agent walk year, could not will up a great performance (apparently he tried too hard early on to be a superstar, per Miggy, who takes walks; he hit well from, like, mid-May to the rest of the season, but not $20M AAV great, IMO). What I see is a player who willfully under performs and stays out of shape despite a large contract paying him a lot of money, more money will not necessarily drive him if he feels that he's owed the money due to his magnificence and greatness. He has never shown the ability to be a leader, nor the ability to be led, he has always marched to his own drum (and, as typical, he's a lefty; I find that they do think differently), a man-child running loose in the adult world. Hopefully for his sake, he mans up, grows up, and reach his potential.
Top Priority is SP
The Giants have made their priorities clear: get a SP first, with the goal of picking up someone significantly upgraded, like Lester and now Shields (reportedly they were talking with Santana as well before he signed). They have also said that they still think highly of Peavy and Vogelsong, and both are starting to get mentions of pursuit by teams (Peavy by Bridegrooms and by Marlins, Vogie by Twinnies).
Regarding Lincecum, Sabean, when asked, noted that he's a starter "at the moment" and then Bochy came out almost immediately afterward and, when asked whether Timmy was a starter or reliever, stated clearly that Lincecum is a starter, reminding the reporters that he pitched really well at times last season, and had his no-hitter (he loves to defend his vets). I think that Lincecum will do much better in 2015 now that his father will be advising him once again on his mechanics (I still can't believe he hasn't helped since 2009). I wonder if the drama we had with Sandoval this season will be repeated with Lincecum next off-season. He has said that playing for Seattle would be nice one day.
About Cain, both said that he's been recovering fine, and that they expect him to be ready for spring training, and be back to his old self. Bochy noted all the crap that came out of Cain's elbow, marveling at the amount. All the reports say that he's healthy, and if he's healthy and no longer hampered by his elbow and ankle, he's got to do better, right?!? Though, per Bochy's CSNBA interview, he feels that Cain will need to adjust to having all that "crud", as Bochy called it, not bothering him anymore in his elbow.
About Bumgarner, Bochy noted that the Giants will certainly monitor Bumgarner but that he appears to be in great shape and they don't anticipate having to baby him in any way during the season, though they might be more conservative in taking him out earlier to lessen the load. But no more so than they normally do, monitoring how the pitchers are doing, adjusting to what their bodies are telling them.
Congrats to Madison for being named SI's Sportsman of the Year. Great article about him at SI. Revealed that he once dated a girl named Madison Bumgarner (he checked, not a relative!) and other interesting stuff, it was a great read. He's one of the youngest to win, and one of the few pitchers to have ever won it.
Next Priority is 3B
About 3B, Headley was the main media rumor until Sabean felt the need to openly say that Lester was the Giants only concern at the moment, and that people should not pay attention to the reports that talk about how enamored the Giants are with Headley. Sounds pretty much like a public rejection of him, though perhaps that was just Sabean's bluntness coming out to clear the air and not a rebuke.
Still, hard to see the Giants ending up with him, unless that 4 year, $65M rumor was just a lie put out there by his agent (and the rumor is that it is false), and he ends up needing to sign a one year deal in Jan/Feb to earn a better one next off-season. But apparently he is close to signing with his #1 choice, the Yankees, for a reported 4 years, $50M deal, which is not close to the AAV of the rumor, so unless he's giving up $15M to sign with the Yankees, that was a lie passed along by someone working with his agent.
There has been rumors that the Giants have been talking with the Braves about Justin Upton for LF. He would cost a lot of prospects, and frankly, I don't think we got the numbers or quality to do it, unless Panik and Susac are part of the deal, and neither is going nowhere.
How does this fix 3B? To reduce how much the Giants would have to give up to get Upton, the option exists of also accepting Johnson's $15M contract over the next two years, in order to reduce the prospect haul, and he would play 3B. Unfortunately, he does not play 3B all that well, but then again, neither did Sandoval in 2012-2013. Still would cost some prospects though, still might not have enough, depends on how badly the Braves want to clear out salary, and I haven't see them rumored after anyone high in salary, so perhaps this rumor is dead already. And besides, Evans has said that the trade route does not seem to be good enough right now for them to acquire the players they desire.
But Do They Need to Acquire Players?
As noted, the order of priority for the Giants is SP, 3B, and then LF (as noted above, they did not mention reliever, which don't bode well for Romo returning, though it was noted that they were still interested). For LF they mentioned that they had Blanco, Perez, and even Ishikawa as options there, and thus that position is a lower priority to acquire. Given their posturing, have to wonder if they will even sign anyone, more probably someone as a cheap pick-up in January/February.
For 3B, they have said that they do not have any internal options. I think that Arias, Adrianza, and Duffy could be options. Bochy in the interview with CSNBA spoke about how they can't replace him. But Arias has been so good defensively there that Panik/Arias could produce as well as 2B/Sandoval did in 2014, overall, given how poorly 2B produced in 2014 and how not above average Sandoval produced in 2014. And I think Adrianza or Duffy, if given the chance, could be even better than Arias, particularly Adrianza, who was getting hot when he got injured, and has always been a superlative defender.
But I recently realized that for PR purposes, the Giants can't publicly say they have a solution internally. It would not fly with the fanbase to tell them, don't worry, we'll be fine replacing Sandoval with Arias, Adrianza, and Duffy sharing the load. They would be crucified in the press and social media. So they say the right things about how great Sandoval is and how hard it is to replace him, and when they have tried every option, continue to talk about moving on from Sandoval and using what they have internally.
And for SP, an interesting tidbit came out recently: Giants feel that Ty Blach is underrated, and feel that he could be ready for the back of the rotation at some point during the 2015 season. Or perhaps they want to prime the pump for trading, I was surprised when Escobar was traded after all the talk about him in the off-season...
In any case, they only need one SP, and while there has been some rumors of other teams' interest in Peavy and Vogie, nothing hot and heavy so far. So perhaps the Giants are waiting out the market and seeing who is available at a price they are happy with. They have reportedly been in on most of the top pitchers available, except for Scherzer, including pitchers who would cost us our first round draft pick.
I just don't see the Giants giving up their draft pick, particularly with other teams giving up their first round and pushing the Giants now to 19th overall (they had started at 22nd) and could move up if any of the remaining ahead of us sign anyone that would cost a draft pick. Particularly since the remaining pitchers are nothing like Lester, a game changer. The difference between guys like Shields and Peavy is worth the draft pick it would cost the Giants.
We need to remember that a lot of the "interest" the Giants show in free agents is often part of their thorough process of vetting everyone as to their availability and interest in the Giants, and what the cost could be. If the guy is willing to come to the Giants for a low enough price, any free agent is interesting to the Giants. But it appears that a lot of the time, it's a much below market price. For example, they once reportedly went to Gary Sheffield and asked if he would have been interested in signing with the Giants for $10M, and I believe he signed with the Yankees for 2 years, $26M.
So I think the Giants will stay close enough to both Peavy and Vogie to judge where they are in their decision making and gauge the interest of other teams, and when one of them is close to choosing a team, make a move to acquire the pitcher they feel is the better value. I have to think that they prefer to get Peavy back than Vogie, but that Peavy wants multiple years at similar money to what he was getting before (around $15M AAV), and thus it is a matter of whether they can get Peavy for something like what they signed Hudson to, or if they will decide to settle with Vogie as their 5th starter.
Rule 5 Draft
During the Rule 5 Draft, the Giants did not lose anyone this year, and they rarely select anyone, but did pick up two players in the minor league portion of the draft: OF Brett Jackson, former Cal, and Ramon del Orbe, RHP. They like Jackson's athleticism and Orbe's "solid fastball and decent changeup." Jackson will probably be in AAA, Orbe in A-ball, per the media talk.
Brett Jackson was actually pretty good in the minors then suddenly lost it soon afterward. A couple of teams have tried to fix him up, giving him chances due to his high proespect status, but now he's with us. I see him in the Blanco/Arias/Stewart mode, a prospect who showed some decent plate discipline at some point in their professional career, but for whatever reason, could never really put it together under the weight of being "the prospect", and now perhaps could do it for us, in his last chance (perhaps) to make it in the majors.
He fits right in the mode of players that Barr seems like to pick up, former hot prospects who showed the talent but for whatever reason, failed. He's been as high as 32nd top prospect for BA, 33rd for MLB.com, 44th for BP. Those are pretty high rankings, but from my view, those are the fringe good prospects, who show enough good talent to make the majors, but still have some things to figure out. Obviously, he never figure those things out.
Looking at his stats, it seems to me that he lost his plate discipline that year he started hitting all those homers, I think it was 2011. He hasn't been able to stop swinging for the fences since, pushing up his K% and pushing down his BB%, which used to be pretty good BB/K ratio, leading to high OBP. He actually is a nice basestealer too.
If the Giants can get him to start shooting for line drives and making contact, versus swinging for the fences, they might have the next Blanco in their farm system, someone who can play all three positions, get on-base regularly (when playing within his abilities), steal bases on a regular basis, and he's a lefty to boot. Plus some power if he can adjust his approach at the plate to the needs of the situation. Heck, he could even be the new Blanco sometime in 2015-16 if the Giants go through with Blanco being the starting LF, and Perez and Ishikawa as the bench LF.
Arbitration Signings
Speaking of Ishi, they have already reached a contract agreement with him for $1.1M, and with Hanchez for $800K. While not quite locks to make the 25-man roster (Hanchez still has one more option, if I recall right, while Ishi has none), barring any injury setbacks for Hanchez, he should be the backup catcher in 2015 and Ishi should be the lefty power bat off the bench, who also can get on base at a good rate too, plus plays great defense at 1B, when necessary.
For, as much as the Giants have been making it very clear that Posey is their franchise catcher, he has nominally been the starting catcher, catching around 100-110 games each season. And I have to think the Giants view Susac as the starting catcher of the future, whenever Posey decides he is done. Plus, given how dangerous the catcher position is, Susac is a great luxury to have in hand, and would want to prepare and develop him further with a full season catching in AAA in 2015; but the Giants have pushed the envelope before, placing Hanchez and Belt on the 25-man roster sooner than later, so we'll see.
But I can't see them promoting Susac to the majors without making him a starter, which is why I've been advocating a future sharing of C and 1B between Posey and Susac, and given that eventuality, then it makes sense to move Belt to LF now and get that done and over with. Plus with Ishi around, he can platoon at 1B with Posey in 2015, as that is really what the Giants need with Posey unable to catch a full season and needing 30-40 starts at 1B to stay fresh. These tactics makes great use of the talent currently on the roster, with no high priced additions.
Looking Forward
I would be happy if the only move is to sign a free agent starting pitcher to replace Vogelsong's position (whether Vogie, Peavy, or other). I trust the Giants brain trust to pick up someone interesting for the last rotation spot. Probably, at this point, someone who has been down but had been good before, and thus some potential for upside.
I think the lineup (Sandoval/2B to Arias/Panik, Morse/Belt to Belt/Ishi-Posey; Belt all season replaces and is better than Sandoval), while not as strong, would be close enough, given the probability of similarity with some improvement in the starting rotation (I expect Bumgarner to not have that stumble he had early on, Cain to be Cain-like, Hudson to be his usual steady self, Lincecum to be steadily OK, and improvement especially if we have Peavy all season) and bullpen (Romo/Gutierrez to Kontos/Strickland, though there still appears to be some chance of Romo returning, and Romo/Kontos would definitely be an improvement).
Of course, it would always be nice to get a strong upgrade like a Lester. Gilding the lily is always nice. But at what price? At what risk? Plus, Price will be available next season and, at the moment, both Lincecum's and Hudson's salaries ($30M) will come off the budget, a great SP would be especially needed next season with a lot of money coming off (perhaps the #5 starter too, depending on who is signed). Not that I'm necessarily for throwing the bank at Price, but Lester isn't the only big stud pitcher going on the market in the near-term.
I don't need the Giants to play smash mouth baseball in order for me to enjoy the season. Three in Five has made me much more mellow about things, though I think I would have felt the same way even had we had lost to KC. I've never felt the need for the Giants to be overwhelmingly good, probably because I've seen so many teams who look like that fade in the playoffs. I want a team with good players who I can root for and feel good about, and I do right now.
We have a good enough team to make the playoffs, I think. I want to keep some spots open for young players to come up and maybe take it over, like Panik did in 2014. Adrianza and Duffy at 3B. Maybe Mac in LF by mid-season. Strickland, Okert, Hall in the bullpen. Maybe Law by the trade deadline. And we need them to, our bullpen has gotten pretty old now, we need an infusion of younger, fresher blood.
Plus there are things to watch for on the 25-man roster. I think Belt and Crawford are ready for their breakout seasons, where they put it all together for a full season. Pagan's issues have mostly been with his back and he reported being pain free after the operation. Even Pence had a bit of a down year relative to his career, he could have a bounce up year as well. We won in 2014 despite a lot of players not performing to their best or even expected levels (including Pablo, we won a lot early on despite his struggles). Plus we should have Panik all season, hopefully producing, his plate discipline appears to be up to snuff for the majors. And maybe Blanco can be a steady producer if Pagan can stay healthy and keep Gregor in the bottom part of the lineup, he's great in the 6/7 position.
Starting pitchers too could surprise on the upside. Cain hopefully will be back to normal now that he has no chips or ankle problems for him to adjust to. Lincecum could surprise and be back to consistent goodness again, I would take a full season of what he did last season until that save, he had a 3.65 ERA up to then, that's great to get from your back of rotation starter. Bumgarner stumbled to start 2014, adjusting apparently to his ace status (heavy is the crown), but he was stellar from start to finish in 2013, and I would like to see that in 2015. And who knows, maybe Petit will get his chance to shine in the rotation at some point, pitchers are a fragile species, who knows who might go down, for example, Hudson probably should have DLed mid-season 2014, his hip problems caused him a lot of performance problems, so maybe now that Petit is a proven performer, he'll go on the DL until ready knowing that Petit will carry the load well for the team.
Posey has been saying that he's been building up his stamina so that he can last longer into the season while catching more. One might not remember, but originally he was suppose to catch 140+ games in 2014, but Belt's injuries allowed Bochy to start Posey at 1B a lot. Good thing, look at how bushed he was in the playoffs. That extra-inning game didn't help, but there were enough off days, I think, for him to recover. He's never had a stellar season start to finish (including playoffs), perhaps he can pull it off in 2015.
And then there is Bochy. Up to 2013, he had averaged 4 games above .500 in one-run games. The team was at 0 in 2013 and -4 in 2014 (though +3 during the playoffs, I never counted them before, but I guess they count too). He has had around 40% of his seasons with at least a +8 , and I don't think he's ever gone three seasons without one. That would be a 6 game swing had it happened in 2014, changing it from an 88 win season to a 94 win season.
If I thought the Giants were in bad shape, I would say it, but I don't see it. They appear to be in good shape, even if there is no great addition to make up for the loss of Sandoval, I would not be surprised if the Giants win more games in 2015 nor if they won the division. As I noted before, the Giants did most of the winning early in the season (was 43-21 on June 8th) with Pablo slumping a lot (.242/.290/.398/.689 to June 8th). I think Panik can easily meet and beat that, and I think Arias could meet what we got from Hicks up to that point, .188/.305/.376/.681 minus whatever crud Arias and Adrianza had done at 2B up to then. And if they can stay healthy enough, I don't see why they can't be really good all season long and compete for the most wins in the majors like they did early in 2014.
Evans noted that the meetings were productive in that the Giants have determined that their best options for acquiring the players they seek (mentioned previously, in order of priority, SP, 3B, and LF; though no mention of reliever, they did note their interest in Romo at some point, though in a blanket statement regarding all their free agents) is via free agency, not trades, due to the lack of surplus at the major league level. Though perhaps something could be done via trading prospects (given the way the statement was made, I think it can be inferred that the Giants see better options via free agency than via trades using prospects, suggesting either that the price via trade is too high or that our prospects were not viewed as highly as some might think. It could also mean that every time they approach someone for a trade, they ask for one of Panik, Susac, Duffy, or perhaps Adrianza, someone the Giants are unwilling to give up).
So really, nothing much happened...
ogc thoughts
Being Used by Free Agents
Other than they were used by Lester to squeeze the Cubs into giving him the money he was shooting for. Once he got that, he told the Giants "Thanks, But No Thanks", even though (as in the Sandoval pursuit, and Carlos Lee before), they had indicated that there was still room to go in the negotiations. They came in third this time (they were told buh-bye a day early, apparently it was Cubs vs. Red Sox, but rumors had it that it was the Cubs all along because of Epstein and Hoyer, and the allure of winning one for Cubs, and reportedly because he was upset by the low-ball offer they made in spring - though some would think something like 4 years and $75-80M is plenty good).
Speaking of butt-hurt players, apparently (per Pavlovic) some in the Giants organization feel that Sandoval had decided against the Giants long ago (including Bochy in this CSNBA interview, but I would note that he took the high road, noting that players have options and he praised Pablo for all that he gave to us). Given what we know now, his "I got two years to get fit" statement was the first overt sign that he hasn't been happy with the Giants.
I wonder what it could have been. Perhaps it was the threat to put him in AAA if he didn't get into shape back in 2010? Or even before, because he was sat in the 2010 World Series, maybe he was embarrassed by that (or his entourage got him to feel that he was dissed by this)? Perhaps it was how the team treated him when he was accused of rape by a woman back early in his Panda days? Perhaps he didn't like what the Giants team leaders, like Posey, said to him in the prior offseason? Perhaps he was upset by the initial contract offer (which, BTW, his agent totally misplayed and then made it all public, shows what a novice and how unskilled a negotiator that his agent is). Perhaps it wasn't the team, maybe he is still shocked over his mother almost getting incinerated in the San Bruno PG&E pipeline explosion and just wants to get away? Lots of different possibilities, we'll probably never know why, though with the leak that the Giants kind of knew he wasn't coming back, perhaps his side will stop taking the high road too and leak why he was unhappy (they had been particularly leaky in the spring, and drew first blood by releasing the offer information, so it would not surprise me if they do).
So his decline the past few years might be more related to his discontent, which might lead to his resurgence with the Red Sox (what I would call the Greg Minton Syndrome: he was very unhappy with his salaries and openly said so, then once he was getting the big money from the Giants, he didn't play as well anymore, so when he left for Angels, I wasn't unhappy, but then the bum started pitching well again...). Now that he no longer has this weight on his mind, perhaps he will play up to his 2011 potential. Or play up to his contract, whereas before he played down to it. Or maybe his buddy David Ortiz will kick his butt in the right way and get him to play up to his abilities.
But what I've seen is an unmotivated player, who even in his free agent walk year, could not will up a great performance (apparently he tried too hard early on to be a superstar, per Miggy, who takes walks; he hit well from, like, mid-May to the rest of the season, but not $20M AAV great, IMO). What I see is a player who willfully under performs and stays out of shape despite a large contract paying him a lot of money, more money will not necessarily drive him if he feels that he's owed the money due to his magnificence and greatness. He has never shown the ability to be a leader, nor the ability to be led, he has always marched to his own drum (and, as typical, he's a lefty; I find that they do think differently), a man-child running loose in the adult world. Hopefully for his sake, he mans up, grows up, and reach his potential.
Top Priority is SP
The Giants have made their priorities clear: get a SP first, with the goal of picking up someone significantly upgraded, like Lester and now Shields (reportedly they were talking with Santana as well before he signed). They have also said that they still think highly of Peavy and Vogelsong, and both are starting to get mentions of pursuit by teams (Peavy by Bridegrooms and by Marlins, Vogie by Twinnies).
Regarding Lincecum, Sabean, when asked, noted that he's a starter "at the moment" and then Bochy came out almost immediately afterward and, when asked whether Timmy was a starter or reliever, stated clearly that Lincecum is a starter, reminding the reporters that he pitched really well at times last season, and had his no-hitter (he loves to defend his vets). I think that Lincecum will do much better in 2015 now that his father will be advising him once again on his mechanics (I still can't believe he hasn't helped since 2009). I wonder if the drama we had with Sandoval this season will be repeated with Lincecum next off-season. He has said that playing for Seattle would be nice one day.
About Cain, both said that he's been recovering fine, and that they expect him to be ready for spring training, and be back to his old self. Bochy noted all the crap that came out of Cain's elbow, marveling at the amount. All the reports say that he's healthy, and if he's healthy and no longer hampered by his elbow and ankle, he's got to do better, right?!? Though, per Bochy's CSNBA interview, he feels that Cain will need to adjust to having all that "crud", as Bochy called it, not bothering him anymore in his elbow.
About Bumgarner, Bochy noted that the Giants will certainly monitor Bumgarner but that he appears to be in great shape and they don't anticipate having to baby him in any way during the season, though they might be more conservative in taking him out earlier to lessen the load. But no more so than they normally do, monitoring how the pitchers are doing, adjusting to what their bodies are telling them.
Congrats to Madison for being named SI's Sportsman of the Year. Great article about him at SI. Revealed that he once dated a girl named Madison Bumgarner (he checked, not a relative!) and other interesting stuff, it was a great read. He's one of the youngest to win, and one of the few pitchers to have ever won it.
Next Priority is 3B
About 3B, Headley was the main media rumor until Sabean felt the need to openly say that Lester was the Giants only concern at the moment, and that people should not pay attention to the reports that talk about how enamored the Giants are with Headley. Sounds pretty much like a public rejection of him, though perhaps that was just Sabean's bluntness coming out to clear the air and not a rebuke.
Still, hard to see the Giants ending up with him, unless that 4 year, $65M rumor was just a lie put out there by his agent (and the rumor is that it is false), and he ends up needing to sign a one year deal in Jan/Feb to earn a better one next off-season. But apparently he is close to signing with his #1 choice, the Yankees, for a reported 4 years, $50M deal, which is not close to the AAV of the rumor, so unless he's giving up $15M to sign with the Yankees, that was a lie passed along by someone working with his agent.
There has been rumors that the Giants have been talking with the Braves about Justin Upton for LF. He would cost a lot of prospects, and frankly, I don't think we got the numbers or quality to do it, unless Panik and Susac are part of the deal, and neither is going nowhere.
How does this fix 3B? To reduce how much the Giants would have to give up to get Upton, the option exists of also accepting Johnson's $15M contract over the next two years, in order to reduce the prospect haul, and he would play 3B. Unfortunately, he does not play 3B all that well, but then again, neither did Sandoval in 2012-2013. Still would cost some prospects though, still might not have enough, depends on how badly the Braves want to clear out salary, and I haven't see them rumored after anyone high in salary, so perhaps this rumor is dead already. And besides, Evans has said that the trade route does not seem to be good enough right now for them to acquire the players they desire.
But Do They Need to Acquire Players?
As noted, the order of priority for the Giants is SP, 3B, and then LF (as noted above, they did not mention reliever, which don't bode well for Romo returning, though it was noted that they were still interested). For LF they mentioned that they had Blanco, Perez, and even Ishikawa as options there, and thus that position is a lower priority to acquire. Given their posturing, have to wonder if they will even sign anyone, more probably someone as a cheap pick-up in January/February.
For 3B, they have said that they do not have any internal options. I think that Arias, Adrianza, and Duffy could be options. Bochy in the interview with CSNBA spoke about how they can't replace him. But Arias has been so good defensively there that Panik/Arias could produce as well as 2B/Sandoval did in 2014, overall, given how poorly 2B produced in 2014 and how not above average Sandoval produced in 2014. And I think Adrianza or Duffy, if given the chance, could be even better than Arias, particularly Adrianza, who was getting hot when he got injured, and has always been a superlative defender.
But I recently realized that for PR purposes, the Giants can't publicly say they have a solution internally. It would not fly with the fanbase to tell them, don't worry, we'll be fine replacing Sandoval with Arias, Adrianza, and Duffy sharing the load. They would be crucified in the press and social media. So they say the right things about how great Sandoval is and how hard it is to replace him, and when they have tried every option, continue to talk about moving on from Sandoval and using what they have internally.
And for SP, an interesting tidbit came out recently: Giants feel that Ty Blach is underrated, and feel that he could be ready for the back of the rotation at some point during the 2015 season. Or perhaps they want to prime the pump for trading, I was surprised when Escobar was traded after all the talk about him in the off-season...
In any case, they only need one SP, and while there has been some rumors of other teams' interest in Peavy and Vogie, nothing hot and heavy so far. So perhaps the Giants are waiting out the market and seeing who is available at a price they are happy with. They have reportedly been in on most of the top pitchers available, except for Scherzer, including pitchers who would cost us our first round draft pick.
I just don't see the Giants giving up their draft pick, particularly with other teams giving up their first round and pushing the Giants now to 19th overall (they had started at 22nd) and could move up if any of the remaining ahead of us sign anyone that would cost a draft pick. Particularly since the remaining pitchers are nothing like Lester, a game changer. The difference between guys like Shields and Peavy is worth the draft pick it would cost the Giants.
We need to remember that a lot of the "interest" the Giants show in free agents is often part of their thorough process of vetting everyone as to their availability and interest in the Giants, and what the cost could be. If the guy is willing to come to the Giants for a low enough price, any free agent is interesting to the Giants. But it appears that a lot of the time, it's a much below market price. For example, they once reportedly went to Gary Sheffield and asked if he would have been interested in signing with the Giants for $10M, and I believe he signed with the Yankees for 2 years, $26M.
So I think the Giants will stay close enough to both Peavy and Vogie to judge where they are in their decision making and gauge the interest of other teams, and when one of them is close to choosing a team, make a move to acquire the pitcher they feel is the better value. I have to think that they prefer to get Peavy back than Vogie, but that Peavy wants multiple years at similar money to what he was getting before (around $15M AAV), and thus it is a matter of whether they can get Peavy for something like what they signed Hudson to, or if they will decide to settle with Vogie as their 5th starter.
Rule 5 Draft
During the Rule 5 Draft, the Giants did not lose anyone this year, and they rarely select anyone, but did pick up two players in the minor league portion of the draft: OF Brett Jackson, former Cal, and Ramon del Orbe, RHP. They like Jackson's athleticism and Orbe's "solid fastball and decent changeup." Jackson will probably be in AAA, Orbe in A-ball, per the media talk.
Brett Jackson was actually pretty good in the minors then suddenly lost it soon afterward. A couple of teams have tried to fix him up, giving him chances due to his high proespect status, but now he's with us. I see him in the Blanco/Arias/Stewart mode, a prospect who showed some decent plate discipline at some point in their professional career, but for whatever reason, could never really put it together under the weight of being "the prospect", and now perhaps could do it for us, in his last chance (perhaps) to make it in the majors.
He fits right in the mode of players that Barr seems like to pick up, former hot prospects who showed the talent but for whatever reason, failed. He's been as high as 32nd top prospect for BA, 33rd for MLB.com, 44th for BP. Those are pretty high rankings, but from my view, those are the fringe good prospects, who show enough good talent to make the majors, but still have some things to figure out. Obviously, he never figure those things out.
Looking at his stats, it seems to me that he lost his plate discipline that year he started hitting all those homers, I think it was 2011. He hasn't been able to stop swinging for the fences since, pushing up his K% and pushing down his BB%, which used to be pretty good BB/K ratio, leading to high OBP. He actually is a nice basestealer too.
If the Giants can get him to start shooting for line drives and making contact, versus swinging for the fences, they might have the next Blanco in their farm system, someone who can play all three positions, get on-base regularly (when playing within his abilities), steal bases on a regular basis, and he's a lefty to boot. Plus some power if he can adjust his approach at the plate to the needs of the situation. Heck, he could even be the new Blanco sometime in 2015-16 if the Giants go through with Blanco being the starting LF, and Perez and Ishikawa as the bench LF.
Arbitration Signings
Speaking of Ishi, they have already reached a contract agreement with him for $1.1M, and with Hanchez for $800K. While not quite locks to make the 25-man roster (Hanchez still has one more option, if I recall right, while Ishi has none), barring any injury setbacks for Hanchez, he should be the backup catcher in 2015 and Ishi should be the lefty power bat off the bench, who also can get on base at a good rate too, plus plays great defense at 1B, when necessary.
For, as much as the Giants have been making it very clear that Posey is their franchise catcher, he has nominally been the starting catcher, catching around 100-110 games each season. And I have to think the Giants view Susac as the starting catcher of the future, whenever Posey decides he is done. Plus, given how dangerous the catcher position is, Susac is a great luxury to have in hand, and would want to prepare and develop him further with a full season catching in AAA in 2015; but the Giants have pushed the envelope before, placing Hanchez and Belt on the 25-man roster sooner than later, so we'll see.
But I can't see them promoting Susac to the majors without making him a starter, which is why I've been advocating a future sharing of C and 1B between Posey and Susac, and given that eventuality, then it makes sense to move Belt to LF now and get that done and over with. Plus with Ishi around, he can platoon at 1B with Posey in 2015, as that is really what the Giants need with Posey unable to catch a full season and needing 30-40 starts at 1B to stay fresh. These tactics makes great use of the talent currently on the roster, with no high priced additions.
Looking Forward
I would be happy if the only move is to sign a free agent starting pitcher to replace Vogelsong's position (whether Vogie, Peavy, or other). I trust the Giants brain trust to pick up someone interesting for the last rotation spot. Probably, at this point, someone who has been down but had been good before, and thus some potential for upside.
I think the lineup (Sandoval/2B to Arias/Panik, Morse/Belt to Belt/Ishi-Posey; Belt all season replaces and is better than Sandoval), while not as strong, would be close enough, given the probability of similarity with some improvement in the starting rotation (I expect Bumgarner to not have that stumble he had early on, Cain to be Cain-like, Hudson to be his usual steady self, Lincecum to be steadily OK, and improvement especially if we have Peavy all season) and bullpen (Romo/Gutierrez to Kontos/Strickland, though there still appears to be some chance of Romo returning, and Romo/Kontos would definitely be an improvement).
Of course, it would always be nice to get a strong upgrade like a Lester. Gilding the lily is always nice. But at what price? At what risk? Plus, Price will be available next season and, at the moment, both Lincecum's and Hudson's salaries ($30M) will come off the budget, a great SP would be especially needed next season with a lot of money coming off (perhaps the #5 starter too, depending on who is signed). Not that I'm necessarily for throwing the bank at Price, but Lester isn't the only big stud pitcher going on the market in the near-term.
I don't need the Giants to play smash mouth baseball in order for me to enjoy the season. Three in Five has made me much more mellow about things, though I think I would have felt the same way even had we had lost to KC. I've never felt the need for the Giants to be overwhelmingly good, probably because I've seen so many teams who look like that fade in the playoffs. I want a team with good players who I can root for and feel good about, and I do right now.
We have a good enough team to make the playoffs, I think. I want to keep some spots open for young players to come up and maybe take it over, like Panik did in 2014. Adrianza and Duffy at 3B. Maybe Mac in LF by mid-season. Strickland, Okert, Hall in the bullpen. Maybe Law by the trade deadline. And we need them to, our bullpen has gotten pretty old now, we need an infusion of younger, fresher blood.
Plus there are things to watch for on the 25-man roster. I think Belt and Crawford are ready for their breakout seasons, where they put it all together for a full season. Pagan's issues have mostly been with his back and he reported being pain free after the operation. Even Pence had a bit of a down year relative to his career, he could have a bounce up year as well. We won in 2014 despite a lot of players not performing to their best or even expected levels (including Pablo, we won a lot early on despite his struggles). Plus we should have Panik all season, hopefully producing, his plate discipline appears to be up to snuff for the majors. And maybe Blanco can be a steady producer if Pagan can stay healthy and keep Gregor in the bottom part of the lineup, he's great in the 6/7 position.
Starting pitchers too could surprise on the upside. Cain hopefully will be back to normal now that he has no chips or ankle problems for him to adjust to. Lincecum could surprise and be back to consistent goodness again, I would take a full season of what he did last season until that save, he had a 3.65 ERA up to then, that's great to get from your back of rotation starter. Bumgarner stumbled to start 2014, adjusting apparently to his ace status (heavy is the crown), but he was stellar from start to finish in 2013, and I would like to see that in 2015. And who knows, maybe Petit will get his chance to shine in the rotation at some point, pitchers are a fragile species, who knows who might go down, for example, Hudson probably should have DLed mid-season 2014, his hip problems caused him a lot of performance problems, so maybe now that Petit is a proven performer, he'll go on the DL until ready knowing that Petit will carry the load well for the team.
Posey has been saying that he's been building up his stamina so that he can last longer into the season while catching more. One might not remember, but originally he was suppose to catch 140+ games in 2014, but Belt's injuries allowed Bochy to start Posey at 1B a lot. Good thing, look at how bushed he was in the playoffs. That extra-inning game didn't help, but there were enough off days, I think, for him to recover. He's never had a stellar season start to finish (including playoffs), perhaps he can pull it off in 2015.
And then there is Bochy. Up to 2013, he had averaged 4 games above .500 in one-run games. The team was at 0 in 2013 and -4 in 2014 (though +3 during the playoffs, I never counted them before, but I guess they count too). He has had around 40% of his seasons with at least a +8 , and I don't think he's ever gone three seasons without one. That would be a 6 game swing had it happened in 2014, changing it from an 88 win season to a 94 win season.
If I thought the Giants were in bad shape, I would say it, but I don't see it. They appear to be in good shape, even if there is no great addition to make up for the loss of Sandoval, I would not be surprised if the Giants win more games in 2015 nor if they won the division. As I noted before, the Giants did most of the winning early in the season (was 43-21 on June 8th) with Pablo slumping a lot (.242/.290/.398/.689 to June 8th). I think Panik can easily meet and beat that, and I think Arias could meet what we got from Hicks up to that point, .188/.305/.376/.681 minus whatever crud Arias and Adrianza had done at 2B up to then. And if they can stay healthy enough, I don't see why they can't be really good all season long and compete for the most wins in the majors like they did early in 2014.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Your 2015 Giants: Panda-Less
As reported by all our good beat writers, Pablo Sandoval has moved on to "new challenges" with the Boston Red Sox. The Giants in their last try at negotiations (they were not afforded the chance to match Boston), gave Sandoval a great bid: 5 years and $95M, plus a team option for a 6th year, and indicated that they could go higher (not sure how that would be communicated, though, seems to be a CYA info released to the reporters because if I were Sandoval's agent, I would then say, "well, how much higher?" Why even bother mentioning that?).
It is clear to the reporters that the rumor that the Sandoval team felt that Pablo was disrespected and thus was not returning to the Giants appears to be true. It appears that they used the Giants interest to get the Red Sox to up their contract offer. Boston is rumored to have offered 5 years and roughly $100M, more details will probably come out before Thanksgiving (and they were rumored to want some sort of weight clause).
ogc thoughts
Whew, we dodged a huge bullet here!
I am one of the ones who feel that losing him is not a big deal. He's being paid way over what he's worth, in my eyes, and so I can let go. Yes, he was a nice (and fun) contributor to our grand golden era, but to me, it was our pitching that won the championships for us. Yes, it is certainly big news, HUGE news, but for that price, I'm OK with letting him go.
Offense in the playoffs is mostly randomness and BABIP-mess, that's why you get the weird MVPosition Players over the years, like Gene Tenace, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Bucky Dent. Performance that you can rely on is pitching, as Cain, Bumgarner, Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Wilson, even Lincecum in the playoffs. Not all pitching, but that is where scouting and player development comes in.
Furthermore, another reason it is not a big deal to me because we are set in our lineup even without him. Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence is a good 1-5. Belt, Posey, Pence have better 3 year batting line than Panda in 2012-2014. Crawford would have been slightly better than average batting 6th in 2014, he had .713 OPS and average NL 6th hitter .696 OPS. I think he has more growth offensively in 2015.
I'm assuming we are picking up a good hitting LF who would then bat 6th and Crawford would be a good 7th hitter (NL average .689 OPS). Average 8th hitter has .625 OPS, Arias, Adrianza and Duffy hit close to that in sporadic regular play, I'm actually looking forward to seeing what one of them can do with regular ABs.
There are other alternatives that I've brought up that most probably won't happen. One is moving Belt to LF, opening up 1B. Then they could start Ishikawa there in a platoon with Posey. Another alternative is to start sharing C and 1B between Posey and Susac, with Posey the starting catcher and Susac the backup catcher when not starting at 1B (in this scenario, we could still have Hector Sanchez as the third catcher and main PH, saving him from many more concussions; he also played 1B nicely in spring training and probably willing to try other positions as well). There are no real good 3B alternatives, just Headley, but 1) the Yankees sound like they want to keep him and 2) he's not really that good in any case, for the money.
Post-mortem
I think Pablo will eventually come to regret this decision and fire his agent, as well as be mad at all his inner circle of yes-men who pushed him to move on because they thought that he was being disrespected. He's going to be miserable once the boo-birds come out when he hits his first tough spot: look at all the Giants fans coming out of the woodwork in April when he wasn't hitting, complaining about him being fat, and square that, and that's the fan pressure he will have in Boston. Maybe he will finally man up and be the star he appeared to be in 2009 and 2011. But I don't think so.
It is going to be exponentially worse in Boston, where he has no built-up reserve of tolerance and affection, as he had with Giants fans. Fans there will expect great hitting from the get-go and will complain whenever he slumps, and he regularly gets into one, often related to recovering from an injury. For he is not a healthy player, he will be on the DL at some point almost every year, for one reason or another. If he thought the Giants were disrespectful, when until his first major slump.
And a miserable Pablo, we've seen how he acts and hits: in 2010, he spent the season in turmoil, pending divorce, custody battle over daughter, mom yards away from being incinerated in the San Bruno explosion, and his reaction was to get really fat, so fat that he couldn't hit RHP, so fat that he was benched during the World Series because the Giants felt that Renteria, who barely played that season, was a better alternative at SS (shifting Uribe to 3B), even though he hit 1 for 16 in the NLCS.
What Now?
I'm very interested in what they might do with these dollars now that Sandoval has moved on. But not signing Peavy though, that would be like dodging a bullet only to get skewered by a spear. Between the eyes.
The Giants can now accept a deal for either a 1B (Belt moves to LF), 3B, or LF which a team wants to dump his salary for a lower prospect, but a player who would still be productive for the Giants. As I noted above, won't take much of a hitter to provide a positive contribution to the lineup in the 6th spot.
The rumors is that the Giants are now kicking the tires on Lester, who would be a fine addition to the rotation. Unfortunately, talk is that he turned down a huge contract with the Red Sox, and we could be looking at 6 years and $132M in order to sign him. I would rather pass. The Giants have also reported that they have significant interest in the two Cuban free agents, OF Yasmany Thomas and SS Yoan Moncada. I'm very interested in Moncada, sounds pretty great. Not sure what other pitching we might be able to pick up, but that would be a nice area to add a great 5th starter who could be at least mid-rotation.
For 3B, I would be happy with the Giants giving Duffy and Adrianza a chance to grab the starting 3B spot and see what they can do with regular playing time, much like Panik last season, with Arias as the floor on production, because he plays defense at 3B as well as Sandoval, and would be OK as an 8th hitter. As I had noted above, we are set in the top of the lineup with Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, and Pence, that's a good looking top of the lineup through the middle, and Crawford in 2014 hit better than the average 6th place hitter in the NL. Heck, he was not that much worse than Sandoval and was better during parts of the season.
I'll be happy if the Giants sign a good hitting LF (Morse?) or trade for one (Cespedes?), and he could hit 6th with Crawford being an even better 7th place hitter. And Arias, Duffy, and Adrianza each did not hit much worse than the average 8th place hitter, lets see what one of them can do with regular starts. Sandoval's hitting was a luxury, not a necessity.
And ultimately, not much better than any other team's 6th or 7th place hitter. Is that what you want to pay $20M per season for? I don't. Let's see what Sabean and gang can do with that money now.
I thank Sandoval for his years of great service for us, but it's time to move on, and see what our young guys can do in his place or what we can acquire from the marketplace, whether free agent or through trade. I wish him no ill-will, but I won't wish him good luck either, we might face him at some point.
It is clear to the reporters that the rumor that the Sandoval team felt that Pablo was disrespected and thus was not returning to the Giants appears to be true. It appears that they used the Giants interest to get the Red Sox to up their contract offer. Boston is rumored to have offered 5 years and roughly $100M, more details will probably come out before Thanksgiving (and they were rumored to want some sort of weight clause).
ogc thoughts
Whew, we dodged a huge bullet here!
I am one of the ones who feel that losing him is not a big deal. He's being paid way over what he's worth, in my eyes, and so I can let go. Yes, he was a nice (and fun) contributor to our grand golden era, but to me, it was our pitching that won the championships for us. Yes, it is certainly big news, HUGE news, but for that price, I'm OK with letting him go.
Offense in the playoffs is mostly randomness and BABIP-mess, that's why you get the weird MVPosition Players over the years, like Gene Tenace, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Bucky Dent. Performance that you can rely on is pitching, as Cain, Bumgarner, Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Wilson, even Lincecum in the playoffs. Not all pitching, but that is where scouting and player development comes in.
Furthermore, another reason it is not a big deal to me because we are set in our lineup even without him. Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence is a good 1-5. Belt, Posey, Pence have better 3 year batting line than Panda in 2012-2014. Crawford would have been slightly better than average batting 6th in 2014, he had .713 OPS and average NL 6th hitter .696 OPS. I think he has more growth offensively in 2015.
I'm assuming we are picking up a good hitting LF who would then bat 6th and Crawford would be a good 7th hitter (NL average .689 OPS). Average 8th hitter has .625 OPS, Arias, Adrianza and Duffy hit close to that in sporadic regular play, I'm actually looking forward to seeing what one of them can do with regular ABs.
There are other alternatives that I've brought up that most probably won't happen. One is moving Belt to LF, opening up 1B. Then they could start Ishikawa there in a platoon with Posey. Another alternative is to start sharing C and 1B between Posey and Susac, with Posey the starting catcher and Susac the backup catcher when not starting at 1B (in this scenario, we could still have Hector Sanchez as the third catcher and main PH, saving him from many more concussions; he also played 1B nicely in spring training and probably willing to try other positions as well). There are no real good 3B alternatives, just Headley, but 1) the Yankees sound like they want to keep him and 2) he's not really that good in any case, for the money.
Post-mortem
I think Pablo will eventually come to regret this decision and fire his agent, as well as be mad at all his inner circle of yes-men who pushed him to move on because they thought that he was being disrespected. He's going to be miserable once the boo-birds come out when he hits his first tough spot: look at all the Giants fans coming out of the woodwork in April when he wasn't hitting, complaining about him being fat, and square that, and that's the fan pressure he will have in Boston. Maybe he will finally man up and be the star he appeared to be in 2009 and 2011. But I don't think so.
It is going to be exponentially worse in Boston, where he has no built-up reserve of tolerance and affection, as he had with Giants fans. Fans there will expect great hitting from the get-go and will complain whenever he slumps, and he regularly gets into one, often related to recovering from an injury. For he is not a healthy player, he will be on the DL at some point almost every year, for one reason or another. If he thought the Giants were disrespectful, when until his first major slump.
And a miserable Pablo, we've seen how he acts and hits: in 2010, he spent the season in turmoil, pending divorce, custody battle over daughter, mom yards away from being incinerated in the San Bruno explosion, and his reaction was to get really fat, so fat that he couldn't hit RHP, so fat that he was benched during the World Series because the Giants felt that Renteria, who barely played that season, was a better alternative at SS (shifting Uribe to 3B), even though he hit 1 for 16 in the NLCS.
What Now?
I'm very interested in what they might do with these dollars now that Sandoval has moved on. But not signing Peavy though, that would be like dodging a bullet only to get skewered by a spear. Between the eyes.
The Giants can now accept a deal for either a 1B (Belt moves to LF), 3B, or LF which a team wants to dump his salary for a lower prospect, but a player who would still be productive for the Giants. As I noted above, won't take much of a hitter to provide a positive contribution to the lineup in the 6th spot.
The rumors is that the Giants are now kicking the tires on Lester, who would be a fine addition to the rotation. Unfortunately, talk is that he turned down a huge contract with the Red Sox, and we could be looking at 6 years and $132M in order to sign him. I would rather pass. The Giants have also reported that they have significant interest in the two Cuban free agents, OF Yasmany Thomas and SS Yoan Moncada. I'm very interested in Moncada, sounds pretty great. Not sure what other pitching we might be able to pick up, but that would be a nice area to add a great 5th starter who could be at least mid-rotation.
For 3B, I would be happy with the Giants giving Duffy and Adrianza a chance to grab the starting 3B spot and see what they can do with regular playing time, much like Panik last season, with Arias as the floor on production, because he plays defense at 3B as well as Sandoval, and would be OK as an 8th hitter. As I had noted above, we are set in the top of the lineup with Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, and Pence, that's a good looking top of the lineup through the middle, and Crawford in 2014 hit better than the average 6th place hitter in the NL. Heck, he was not that much worse than Sandoval and was better during parts of the season.
I'll be happy if the Giants sign a good hitting LF (Morse?) or trade for one (Cespedes?), and he could hit 6th with Crawford being an even better 7th place hitter. And Arias, Duffy, and Adrianza each did not hit much worse than the average 8th place hitter, lets see what one of them can do with regular starts. Sandoval's hitting was a luxury, not a necessity.
And ultimately, not much better than any other team's 6th or 7th place hitter. Is that what you want to pay $20M per season for? I don't. Let's see what Sabean and gang can do with that money now.
I thank Sandoval for his years of great service for us, but it's time to move on, and see what our young guys can do in his place or what we can acquire from the marketplace, whether free agent or through trade. I wish him no ill-will, but I won't wish him good luck either, we might face him at some point.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Your 2015 Giants: The Hot Stove Is Heating Up
Basking in the afterglow of the Giants third championship in five seasons, it would be easy to forget the reality that a number of our players on this wonderful, wonderful, team are free agents who could chose to move on.
These are the free agents:
These are the free agents:
- Pablo Sandoval
- Jake Peavy
- Michael Morse
- Sergio Romo
- Ryan Vogelsong
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: Sandoval Free Agency Thoughts
Some well-known media person wrote that the Giants plans were to 1) offer Pablo a QO, 2) expect for him to reject it, and 3) offer a 3 year offer to Sandoval, with 4 years a "stretch".
Someone thought that three years was a significant point. I also see a lot of people thinking that Sandoval is going to get a big contract and use Shin-Soo Choo as a good comparison, as apparently he has been injured a lot too.
ogc thoughts
I know Shin-Soo Choo and Sandoval is no Choo
Shin-Soo Choo is a way different situation than Sandoval. I see this comparison all the time and don't understand why.
First of all, in four of the five years leading up to free agency, Choo had at least 646 PA in the season and over 150 games 3 of 5. So he might be injured often, but he sure seems to play through it most of the time. Sandoval, at the moment, has zero seasons with at least 646 PA in his career and over 150 games 2 of 5. Sandoval might reach 646 this year, but unlikely unless the offense goes crazy.
Second of all, Choo in those five seasons hit .288/.392/.459/.851 with 87 HR. Sandoval, for comparative purposes, in his five seasons leading into free agency is hitting .285/.338/.446/.784 with 78 HR. More importantly, Sandoval hasn't even reached .800 OPS in four of the last five seasons and, worse, not at all in the last three seasons. Choo had been over .800 in four of the last five, and .883 and above in three of the last five.
Third of all, research by Fangraphs shows that outfielders get paid a lot more than infielders do, significantly so. If you look at the top outfielder contracts and compare it with the top 3B contracts, like Zimmerman and Wright, you can see the dichotomy. On top of that, both Zimmernan and Wright had great batting lines often and overall. Sandoval only had two good seasons, last time in 2011. Hence Sandoval asking for Pence's numbers just don't make sense given the realities of the marketplace.
Three Years is No News
And this 3 year offer is not really any news at all. Observant Giants fans know that the Giants offered a 3 year, $42M contract to Sandoval in the pre-season. This is the one his agent spat on publicly and gave the quote that they want to start the bidding at Pence's contract and hope to get to 9-figures. So it figures that the Giants will continue to offer that amount, that is where they last left off at.
Value Is Not There
The fact is, Sandoval hasn't been a good hitter since 2011. His ups and downs, for whatever reasons, whether injuries, family issues, or whatever, just seem to happen and that is the package any team signing him would be getting. Teams have been stupid with their contracts, but generally they have had good reasons to be stupid. If Sandoval had hit 900 OPS in 2014 like he did in 2011, he probably could find at least one stupid team. But he didn't, having another middling season.
And 2011 was the last year he had at least 20 HR, a mark he has only done twice in his career. Teams have gotten stupid signing up players who has a lot of power, and this is his first season to beat 15 homers since 2011, so no, that's not a power hitter's profile. His 3-HR game in the World Series is looking more like Elster's 3-HR game at AT&T, an outlier, not a norm.
So there is no reason to think that he's going to get a bigger contract than what Zimmerman got with the Nats or Wright got with the Mets. They were much better and more healthier players than Sandoval plus they hit for a lot better batting line. The Giants offer was totally in line with what he had produced up to this season, and there is no reason for them to go much more above that. In fact, with how poorly he has hit this season, the 3 year, $42M contract looks like it might be overpaying now. He plays nice defense, but nothing like he did in 2011, so his value is reliant on hit hitting, which has been up and down but mostly down the past three seasons.
How I See It
If Sandoval's agent is stupid enough to continue to ask for Pence-sized contract, I think that Sandoval will end up not signing until sometime in Jan/Feb before spring training, and probably will end up signing with the Giants for the QO (even after he rejected it, the Giants don't seem to like to take advantage of players in that situation and would still leave it on the table).
Who knows, maybe he finally gets it and take the Giants 3 year offer. As I noted in the pre-season, I can see the deal going as high as $15M per year, or $45M, or roughly 2.5 to 3.0 WAR per season production, which is about what he has done the past three seasons (roughly just under 3). So that would make it a "win" for his agent (by getting more than originally offered) while nowhere close to what he was asking for.
Someone thought that three years was a significant point. I also see a lot of people thinking that Sandoval is going to get a big contract and use Shin-Soo Choo as a good comparison, as apparently he has been injured a lot too.
ogc thoughts
I know Shin-Soo Choo and Sandoval is no Choo
Shin-Soo Choo is a way different situation than Sandoval. I see this comparison all the time and don't understand why.
First of all, in four of the five years leading up to free agency, Choo had at least 646 PA in the season and over 150 games 3 of 5. So he might be injured often, but he sure seems to play through it most of the time. Sandoval, at the moment, has zero seasons with at least 646 PA in his career and over 150 games 2 of 5. Sandoval might reach 646 this year, but unlikely unless the offense goes crazy.
Second of all, Choo in those five seasons hit .288/.392/.459/.851 with 87 HR. Sandoval, for comparative purposes, in his five seasons leading into free agency is hitting .285/.338/.446/.784 with 78 HR. More importantly, Sandoval hasn't even reached .800 OPS in four of the last five seasons and, worse, not at all in the last three seasons. Choo had been over .800 in four of the last five, and .883 and above in three of the last five.
Third of all, research by Fangraphs shows that outfielders get paid a lot more than infielders do, significantly so. If you look at the top outfielder contracts and compare it with the top 3B contracts, like Zimmerman and Wright, you can see the dichotomy. On top of that, both Zimmernan and Wright had great batting lines often and overall. Sandoval only had two good seasons, last time in 2011. Hence Sandoval asking for Pence's numbers just don't make sense given the realities of the marketplace.
Three Years is No News
And this 3 year offer is not really any news at all. Observant Giants fans know that the Giants offered a 3 year, $42M contract to Sandoval in the pre-season. This is the one his agent spat on publicly and gave the quote that they want to start the bidding at Pence's contract and hope to get to 9-figures. So it figures that the Giants will continue to offer that amount, that is where they last left off at.
Value Is Not There
The fact is, Sandoval hasn't been a good hitter since 2011. His ups and downs, for whatever reasons, whether injuries, family issues, or whatever, just seem to happen and that is the package any team signing him would be getting. Teams have been stupid with their contracts, but generally they have had good reasons to be stupid. If Sandoval had hit 900 OPS in 2014 like he did in 2011, he probably could find at least one stupid team. But he didn't, having another middling season.
And 2011 was the last year he had at least 20 HR, a mark he has only done twice in his career. Teams have gotten stupid signing up players who has a lot of power, and this is his first season to beat 15 homers since 2011, so no, that's not a power hitter's profile. His 3-HR game in the World Series is looking more like Elster's 3-HR game at AT&T, an outlier, not a norm.
So there is no reason to think that he's going to get a bigger contract than what Zimmerman got with the Nats or Wright got with the Mets. They were much better and more healthier players than Sandoval plus they hit for a lot better batting line. The Giants offer was totally in line with what he had produced up to this season, and there is no reason for them to go much more above that. In fact, with how poorly he has hit this season, the 3 year, $42M contract looks like it might be overpaying now. He plays nice defense, but nothing like he did in 2011, so his value is reliant on hit hitting, which has been up and down but mostly down the past three seasons.
How I See It
If Sandoval's agent is stupid enough to continue to ask for Pence-sized contract, I think that Sandoval will end up not signing until sometime in Jan/Feb before spring training, and probably will end up signing with the Giants for the QO (even after he rejected it, the Giants don't seem to like to take advantage of players in that situation and would still leave it on the table).
Who knows, maybe he finally gets it and take the Giants 3 year offer. As I noted in the pre-season, I can see the deal going as high as $15M per year, or $45M, or roughly 2.5 to 3.0 WAR per season production, which is about what he has done the past three seasons (roughly just under 3). So that would make it a "win" for his agent (by getting more than originally offered) while nowhere close to what he was asking for.
Sunday, May 25, 2014
A Tale of Three Pandas and un Petit du Cain
As people know, Pablo Sandoval has had a struggle of a season, but has come back from the struggles to be on one of his hot streaks. Here's how I analyze his season so far: in three parts (and the last part in two segments). Also, news on Cainer and his regular stand-in.
ogc thoughts
SuperSandoval!
As noted, Sandoval has busted things open, kind of like this:
His season has been characterized as being one of struggle and then production. I see there being three parts.
Part one of Sandoval's adventures this season was what I would call "Gift of the Miggy." During the off-season, he was being mentored by Miguel Cabrera, who told him if he is to be a great hitter, he needs to take more walks. Nothing new to his ears, I'm sure, but I suppose it was the way Miggy said it. :^) That characterized his first part of the season, where he hit .186/.284/.322/.606 with 2 HR in 59 AB, and 8 walks vs. 12 strikeouts, which is a great walk rate, exceptional especially for Pablo, who rarely saw a pitch that he didn't want to swing at, for a very good 0.67 BB/K ratio and OK 80% contact rate, but remember, this is probably still small sampling for any stat. Still, this walk rate has to be so many standard deviations from his regular rate that it was significantly different, and indicative of Pablo trying to take more walks.
Part two of his seasonal adventure was what I would call "Panicking Panda." He took the advice but while he was walking more, he wasn't hitting (not really surprising, when you are up there trying to learn to do something new, you lose all your muscle memory and are stating from scratch), so it appears that he tried to switch gears and return to his usual hacking ways, thanks for the noble try to take walks, but we need you to hit like you naturally do. Hard to mark exactly when he reached part two, given small sample sizing issues, so I took the start of this period to be after the walk in the prior game, plus the start of consecutive games of strikeouts, basically his walks went way down and his strikeouts way up.
His swing is a way of life, very zen, and he needs to work his way back out of the jungle that is his brain pathways, much like he has always had to do every time he returned to MLB pitching from a visit to the DL, he needs to find his swing. That generally took about 4-6 weeks. This time he took less time and in this second part, he hit .145/.203/.218/.422 with .205 BABIP, 16 K's in only 55 AB ( 29% contact rate, really bad) plus no walks and no homers, covering 16 games and 3 weeks of time (April 17 to May 6).
Part three, his current sojourn, is what the picture above depicts, "Super Sandoval." His bat finally started to time MLB pitching and he's squaring the ball. He's hitting .339/.344/.613/.957 with .321 BABIP (that's actually low for him) with only 6 K's in 62 AB (roughly 90% contact rate, which is great) and 4 homers (15.5 AB/HR rate, roughly 40+ homerun seasonal rate). Only one walk, but that's classic Panda.
And really, I am stretching his good period a bit, there is actually two parts in that. I usually count his having a multiple extra-base hit game as the turning point for switching into Panda-mode. That was actually May 16 (almost exactly a month from April 17). If you look back at all his down periods, the signal that he's out of the woods is a double tap of extra-base hits. In that transitional phase, from May 7 to May 15, he had a good contact rate (3 K's in 33 AB, 91% contact rate) but no power, hitting .333/.354/.394/.748, with 0 HR. From May 16, which is when he got two extra-base hits, he has hit .345/.333/..862/1.195 with 4 homers in 29 AB.
For his power, during his MLB career, has come in spurts. He didn't do much in 2008 and early (first two months) of 2009, but then he started blasting them. In 2010, he had spurts of power (like his first month) interspersed with periods of no power, as personal turmoil (divorce, custody battle, mother's near-death situation in San Bruno) played havoc with him, as well as his weight, and he ate his way out of the World Series lineup, pushing Sabean to say it's up to him and the first "Camp Panda", where he worked to lose that weight. That led to his great 2011, except for the first of his hamate bone breaking, then injuries like his second hamate bone breaking and hamstring issues, put him on the DL, pushing him back to start to regain first his batting stroke in the majors, then his power stroke.
He appears to have come round circle again this season with that cycle of down, recovery, and then up into the air, it's a bird, it's a plane, it's super-Sandoval!
Cain to Skip Start, Petit to Start Instead
As the news notes, Cain will skip his start - again. This time due to his hamstring injury. He has already missed two starts this season, for his sandwich making adventure where he survived a knife cut, and his last start was cut short by his hamstring injury, so I would say three starts missed, or at least interfered with. And, who knows, he could miss the next one too and get DLed briefly. But that's not the news to me.
The news is Petit will be taking his spot - again. This will be his fourth emergency start this season, third was for Hudson's hippy hurt. Much was made about how the Giants don't have much depth in the starting rotation, and some were not sold on Petit. I'm not sure what they were not sold on.
Petit has been a very good starter with us. Whatever problems he had before as a prospect and MLB pitcher, either maturity, Giants coaching, or both, has led him to finally capitalize on the skill set he possessed when he was a regular on Top prospect lists when he was coming up. He has done very well for us in the minors, and then for us in the majors.
He has had 6 quality-level starts out of 11 starts for the Giants. I would give him at least one or two more, for while he didn't pitch the requisite 5 IP necessary for PQS dominance, he was pretty close in terms of performance, just didn't make the required IP, which he might have made but Bochy took him out, partly because emergency starters are not usually prepared to go so many innings, so many pitches, you usually need to work up to that. Petit appears to have a bit of a rubber arm, like Lincecum, and can just come into a game cold and start pitching well.
So depth or no depth (given how poorly our crop of minor league starters are doing this season, including our supposedly next starting pitcher in line, Escobar, we have little depth in the minors), Petit has made that "flaw" of our minor league system a non-question by taking the ball whenever needed and not only eating innings for us, but throwing good quality games as well. The Giants the last two seasons have been 8-2 in his starts for us.
ogc thoughts
SuperSandoval!
As noted, Sandoval has busted things open, kind of like this:
His season has been characterized as being one of struggle and then production. I see there being three parts.
Part one of Sandoval's adventures this season was what I would call "Gift of the Miggy." During the off-season, he was being mentored by Miguel Cabrera, who told him if he is to be a great hitter, he needs to take more walks. Nothing new to his ears, I'm sure, but I suppose it was the way Miggy said it. :^) That characterized his first part of the season, where he hit .186/.284/.322/.606 with 2 HR in 59 AB, and 8 walks vs. 12 strikeouts, which is a great walk rate, exceptional especially for Pablo, who rarely saw a pitch that he didn't want to swing at, for a very good 0.67 BB/K ratio and OK 80% contact rate, but remember, this is probably still small sampling for any stat. Still, this walk rate has to be so many standard deviations from his regular rate that it was significantly different, and indicative of Pablo trying to take more walks.
Part two of his seasonal adventure was what I would call "Panicking Panda." He took the advice but while he was walking more, he wasn't hitting (not really surprising, when you are up there trying to learn to do something new, you lose all your muscle memory and are stating from scratch), so it appears that he tried to switch gears and return to his usual hacking ways, thanks for the noble try to take walks, but we need you to hit like you naturally do. Hard to mark exactly when he reached part two, given small sample sizing issues, so I took the start of this period to be after the walk in the prior game, plus the start of consecutive games of strikeouts, basically his walks went way down and his strikeouts way up.
His swing is a way of life, very zen, and he needs to work his way back out of the jungle that is his brain pathways, much like he has always had to do every time he returned to MLB pitching from a visit to the DL, he needs to find his swing. That generally took about 4-6 weeks. This time he took less time and in this second part, he hit .145/.203/.218/.422 with .205 BABIP, 16 K's in only 55 AB ( 29% contact rate, really bad) plus no walks and no homers, covering 16 games and 3 weeks of time (April 17 to May 6).
Part three, his current sojourn, is what the picture above depicts, "Super Sandoval." His bat finally started to time MLB pitching and he's squaring the ball. He's hitting .339/.344/.613/.957 with .321 BABIP (that's actually low for him) with only 6 K's in 62 AB (roughly 90% contact rate, which is great) and 4 homers (15.5 AB/HR rate, roughly 40+ homerun seasonal rate). Only one walk, but that's classic Panda.
And really, I am stretching his good period a bit, there is actually two parts in that. I usually count his having a multiple extra-base hit game as the turning point for switching into Panda-mode. That was actually May 16 (almost exactly a month from April 17). If you look back at all his down periods, the signal that he's out of the woods is a double tap of extra-base hits. In that transitional phase, from May 7 to May 15, he had a good contact rate (3 K's in 33 AB, 91% contact rate) but no power, hitting .333/.354/.394/.748, with 0 HR. From May 16, which is when he got two extra-base hits, he has hit .345/.333/..862/1.195 with 4 homers in 29 AB.
For his power, during his MLB career, has come in spurts. He didn't do much in 2008 and early (first two months) of 2009, but then he started blasting them. In 2010, he had spurts of power (like his first month) interspersed with periods of no power, as personal turmoil (divorce, custody battle, mother's near-death situation in San Bruno) played havoc with him, as well as his weight, and he ate his way out of the World Series lineup, pushing Sabean to say it's up to him and the first "Camp Panda", where he worked to lose that weight. That led to his great 2011, except for the first of his hamate bone breaking, then injuries like his second hamate bone breaking and hamstring issues, put him on the DL, pushing him back to start to regain first his batting stroke in the majors, then his power stroke.
He appears to have come round circle again this season with that cycle of down, recovery, and then up into the air, it's a bird, it's a plane, it's super-Sandoval!
Cain to Skip Start, Petit to Start Instead
As the news notes, Cain will skip his start - again. This time due to his hamstring injury. He has already missed two starts this season, for his sandwich making adventure where he survived a knife cut, and his last start was cut short by his hamstring injury, so I would say three starts missed, or at least interfered with. And, who knows, he could miss the next one too and get DLed briefly. But that's not the news to me.
The news is Petit will be taking his spot - again. This will be his fourth emergency start this season, third was for Hudson's hippy hurt. Much was made about how the Giants don't have much depth in the starting rotation, and some were not sold on Petit. I'm not sure what they were not sold on.
Petit has been a very good starter with us. Whatever problems he had before as a prospect and MLB pitcher, either maturity, Giants coaching, or both, has led him to finally capitalize on the skill set he possessed when he was a regular on Top prospect lists when he was coming up. He has done very well for us in the minors, and then for us in the majors.
He has had 6 quality-level starts out of 11 starts for the Giants. I would give him at least one or two more, for while he didn't pitch the requisite 5 IP necessary for PQS dominance, he was pretty close in terms of performance, just didn't make the required IP, which he might have made but Bochy took him out, partly because emergency starters are not usually prepared to go so many innings, so many pitches, you usually need to work up to that. Petit appears to have a bit of a rubber arm, like Lincecum, and can just come into a game cold and start pitching well.
So depth or no depth (given how poorly our crop of minor league starters are doing this season, including our supposedly next starting pitcher in line, Escobar, we have little depth in the minors), Petit has made that "flaw" of our minor league system a non-question by taking the ball whenever needed and not only eating innings for us, but throwing good quality games as well. The Giants the last two seasons have been 8-2 in his starts for us.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: Frantic Fans
The season is early yet and I've seen despondent fans upset over a variety of players. I thought I would go through some of them.
ogc thoughts
Things got tough, but really, it is just early season where the slightest losing streak starts the Chicken Littles squawking that the sky is falling.
Starting Rotation
Rough start, but things are turning around after initial hiccups. Overall, their PQS is 40% DOM/28% DIS. 40% is good but not great and great is what gets us into the playoffs. It was in the 60% range when we were winning titles. 28% DIS is horrible, it has to be in the teens for us to get into the playoffs, most probably. However, if you remove that first five starts, where there was a lot of disaster starts, we are at 45% DOM/20% DIS, which is better but not there yet. Still, on the right trend, but plenty of games to be played still, 137 to be exact in the regular season, no need to panic.
Leading the team, no surprise, is Hudson at 60% DOM and 0% DIS. Cain, Bumgarner, and Lincecum each are at 40% DOM (Cain is at 20% DIS, the other two at 40% DIS). Vogelsong has only 20% DOM and 40% DIS.
Why did I remove the first starts? Players are human, and first starts, particularly opening day starts, can put the jitters into the best of us, like Bumgarner. Since that first start, Bumgarner is 50% DOM/25% DIS, Cain 50% DOM/0% DIS, Hudson 50% DOM/0% DIS, Lincecum 50% DOM/50% DIS, and Vogelsong 25% DOM/25% DIS. All looking much better and gives a hint at what they are capable of if there was an early hiccup, which I believe it was. But when the hiccup happens in start 1 instead of start 21, then people get their feathers ruffled.
Starting Over
I'll use that as a jumping point into Lincecum and Sandoval. I've giving each a lot of rope right now. Both are trying to change how they play baseball. And as I've noted before in my references to Malcolm Gladwell's article about learning and where sports is a key topic area, when a player is learning, he's lost a lot of muscle memory and he's trying to get to a level of muscle memory where he can just act and not think about what he should do next. I don't know when it will end but both are clearly working hard to improve their command so that their walks are more indicative of a good player (low for a pitcher, high for a hitter). And both are in a good spot right now with that peripheral.
In Lincecum's case, he's trying to be more precise with his pitches, getting more strikes while avoiding balls. His previous low in a season was 2.7 BB/9 and he is at 3.5 BB/9 for his career. So far this season, he's at 2.1 BB/9. As a result, he's at his highest K/BB for his career, 4.50 this season, high of 3.84 previously. The best pitchers are at 2.4 and higher. He should be fine if he can continue this high K/BB ratio.
However, when you are learning to do something new, mistakes are more often, and thus his HR/9 is at 2.1 right now and H/9 is at 12.6. At least he is improving, as in his last three starts: 1.1 HR/9, 12.1 H/9, while 2.9 BB/9 and only 8.6 K/9 but still 3.00 K/BB, for a 3.45 ERA. But clearly, as his last start showed, he's still working out the kinks. But I would say that things are promising for him, and we can tolerate this while we are winning. I expect a good season out of him eventually, but it would have been foolhardy to think that there wouldn't be any bumps in the road.
In Sandoval's case, apparently this is the season he listens to other people. He has already said that he lost weight his off-season because Posey (among others) came to him and told him he needed to get into shape to best help the team, and so he did. In addition, there has been many references to his talk with Miguel Cabrera, a fellow Venezuelan, where Miguel worked with him extensively and gave him a lot of coaching. And his coaching hasn't ended, a recent blog post noted that Bam Bam is still working on him, so he's not out of the tunnel yet, he's still learning. But he has taken a lot more walks that he normally would not have gotten, but he has also struck out a lot more too. Again, I expect a good season out of him eventually, and as it seems to always be with the Panda, there are bumps in the road.
Slumping
And fans have been up and down on a number of hitters, from Sandoval to Pence, to Posey and now Belt. Well, early in the season, it's easy to be whiplashed by the ups and downs of any number of players. Pence is clearly on the up now, after being in the downs for a long time. And the others have had their downs more lately, after starting hot.
The good sign for Pence, as well as Posey, is that both were not striking out that much, making contact with pitches, while also getting a lot of walks. In fact, perhaps Pence was in learning mode too early on, as his SO% is very low 13.8% vs. previous low of 16.0% in 2010 and career 18.2% SO%, and his BB% is 11.9% vs. previous seasonal high of 9.0% in 2009 and career 7.5% BB%. This is the closest Pence has been in his career to 1.00 BB/K, which only the best hitters achieve, plus the best contact rate in his career, at 84%, almost at the 85% contract rate the best hitters reach.
Posey is at 84% contact rate as well. His SO% is at 14.3% for the season, very close to his career 13.8% and his 11.0% BB% is up there for the past two seasons, 11.3% in 2012 and 10.1% in 2013, leaving him at a very good BB/K ratio and good for his career. His main issue appears to be his BABIP of .226 for the season, whereas his career is .330 and in full seasons like 2010 and 2013, his BABIP was in the .310-.315 range. It appears that the BABIP gods are giving him payback for his great 2012 season where he had a .368 BABIP. Given his good peripherals, I would not worry about Posey.
I wouldn't worry too much about Belt either. As badly as he did over the weekend, for the past 2 weeks, he's still hitting .255/.314/.404/.718. Mind you, that includes his golden sombrero yesterday and a horrid oh-fer-12 with 9 K's weekend series with the Indians. That stuff happens sometimes and it looks worse when there hasn't been much season to base your impressions on. But how soon people forget that at the beginning of the Cleveland series, his overall batting line was .299/.337/.563/.900. As quickly as he stunk up the joint, he had been our top hitter for the first 22 games of the season, even during the streak where the offense wasn't doing much of anything, except, that is for him, who hit .367/.424/.500/.924 from April 15th to 22nd, while the team only scored 15 runs in those 8 games. How soon fans forget and start crying like Chicken Little!
Meanwhile...
The other starters (Hicks, Crawford, Morse, Pagan) have pretty good overall offensive numbers (all at or above 134 OPS+; in fact, only Sandoval is low for his position, the next lowest is Pence at 123 OPS+ which is pretty good, a lineup with 7 hitters at 120+ OPS+ is going to score a lot of runs) and the bullpen, except for occasional hiccups, like yesterday, has been stellar, with a 2.13 ERA (and the starters have been OK with a 4.02 ERA). Only the bench players have been struggling to hit, but Adrianza has a .909 OPS in 12 games as a sub (his 3 hit game helped a LOT though) and Blanco .708 OPS in 18 games as a sub.
So, overall, starting pitching could be a lot better but is at least good so far and improving, the hitting, while giving us a monster roller coaster ride, is actually in pretty great shape and should be good for the season, barring multiple injuries, and our bullpen has been superb, as it has usually been for most Sabean GMed teams. Only our bench leaves things to be desired, but it is early for them and SSS really hurts badly early in the season for reserves.
Lookin' Goood!
Thus, no need for despondency, and not just because of the small winning streak we have, but because of all the facts above. The sky was not falling, and still is not falling. Keep the faith, the team has a strong offense that should keep the runs coming most times and the pitching should be good enough to keep enough runs from not scoring to keep the wins coming. And the fielding defense is much improved this season, helping the pitching, at 12 DRS so far, which would be 78 DRS for the season, or roughly 8 wins gained from our defense, whereas last season we barely gained half a win. I still like my prediction of 90+ wins and not being surprised if they end up at or above 95 wins.
ogc thoughts
Things got tough, but really, it is just early season where the slightest losing streak starts the Chicken Littles squawking that the sky is falling.
Starting Rotation
Rough start, but things are turning around after initial hiccups. Overall, their PQS is 40% DOM/28% DIS. 40% is good but not great and great is what gets us into the playoffs. It was in the 60% range when we were winning titles. 28% DIS is horrible, it has to be in the teens for us to get into the playoffs, most probably. However, if you remove that first five starts, where there was a lot of disaster starts, we are at 45% DOM/20% DIS, which is better but not there yet. Still, on the right trend, but plenty of games to be played still, 137 to be exact in the regular season, no need to panic.
Leading the team, no surprise, is Hudson at 60% DOM and 0% DIS. Cain, Bumgarner, and Lincecum each are at 40% DOM (Cain is at 20% DIS, the other two at 40% DIS). Vogelsong has only 20% DOM and 40% DIS.
Why did I remove the first starts? Players are human, and first starts, particularly opening day starts, can put the jitters into the best of us, like Bumgarner. Since that first start, Bumgarner is 50% DOM/25% DIS, Cain 50% DOM/0% DIS, Hudson 50% DOM/0% DIS, Lincecum 50% DOM/50% DIS, and Vogelsong 25% DOM/25% DIS. All looking much better and gives a hint at what they are capable of if there was an early hiccup, which I believe it was. But when the hiccup happens in start 1 instead of start 21, then people get their feathers ruffled.
Starting Over
I'll use that as a jumping point into Lincecum and Sandoval. I've giving each a lot of rope right now. Both are trying to change how they play baseball. And as I've noted before in my references to Malcolm Gladwell's article about learning and where sports is a key topic area, when a player is learning, he's lost a lot of muscle memory and he's trying to get to a level of muscle memory where he can just act and not think about what he should do next. I don't know when it will end but both are clearly working hard to improve their command so that their walks are more indicative of a good player (low for a pitcher, high for a hitter). And both are in a good spot right now with that peripheral.
In Lincecum's case, he's trying to be more precise with his pitches, getting more strikes while avoiding balls. His previous low in a season was 2.7 BB/9 and he is at 3.5 BB/9 for his career. So far this season, he's at 2.1 BB/9. As a result, he's at his highest K/BB for his career, 4.50 this season, high of 3.84 previously. The best pitchers are at 2.4 and higher. He should be fine if he can continue this high K/BB ratio.
However, when you are learning to do something new, mistakes are more often, and thus his HR/9 is at 2.1 right now and H/9 is at 12.6. At least he is improving, as in his last three starts: 1.1 HR/9, 12.1 H/9, while 2.9 BB/9 and only 8.6 K/9 but still 3.00 K/BB, for a 3.45 ERA. But clearly, as his last start showed, he's still working out the kinks. But I would say that things are promising for him, and we can tolerate this while we are winning. I expect a good season out of him eventually, but it would have been foolhardy to think that there wouldn't be any bumps in the road.
In Sandoval's case, apparently this is the season he listens to other people. He has already said that he lost weight his off-season because Posey (among others) came to him and told him he needed to get into shape to best help the team, and so he did. In addition, there has been many references to his talk with Miguel Cabrera, a fellow Venezuelan, where Miguel worked with him extensively and gave him a lot of coaching. And his coaching hasn't ended, a recent blog post noted that Bam Bam is still working on him, so he's not out of the tunnel yet, he's still learning. But he has taken a lot more walks that he normally would not have gotten, but he has also struck out a lot more too. Again, I expect a good season out of him eventually, and as it seems to always be with the Panda, there are bumps in the road.
Slumping
And fans have been up and down on a number of hitters, from Sandoval to Pence, to Posey and now Belt. Well, early in the season, it's easy to be whiplashed by the ups and downs of any number of players. Pence is clearly on the up now, after being in the downs for a long time. And the others have had their downs more lately, after starting hot.
The good sign for Pence, as well as Posey, is that both were not striking out that much, making contact with pitches, while also getting a lot of walks. In fact, perhaps Pence was in learning mode too early on, as his SO% is very low 13.8% vs. previous low of 16.0% in 2010 and career 18.2% SO%, and his BB% is 11.9% vs. previous seasonal high of 9.0% in 2009 and career 7.5% BB%. This is the closest Pence has been in his career to 1.00 BB/K, which only the best hitters achieve, plus the best contact rate in his career, at 84%, almost at the 85% contract rate the best hitters reach.
Posey is at 84% contact rate as well. His SO% is at 14.3% for the season, very close to his career 13.8% and his 11.0% BB% is up there for the past two seasons, 11.3% in 2012 and 10.1% in 2013, leaving him at a very good BB/K ratio and good for his career. His main issue appears to be his BABIP of .226 for the season, whereas his career is .330 and in full seasons like 2010 and 2013, his BABIP was in the .310-.315 range. It appears that the BABIP gods are giving him payback for his great 2012 season where he had a .368 BABIP. Given his good peripherals, I would not worry about Posey.
I wouldn't worry too much about Belt either. As badly as he did over the weekend, for the past 2 weeks, he's still hitting .255/.314/.404/.718. Mind you, that includes his golden sombrero yesterday and a horrid oh-fer-12 with 9 K's weekend series with the Indians. That stuff happens sometimes and it looks worse when there hasn't been much season to base your impressions on. But how soon people forget that at the beginning of the Cleveland series, his overall batting line was .299/.337/.563/.900. As quickly as he stunk up the joint, he had been our top hitter for the first 22 games of the season, even during the streak where the offense wasn't doing much of anything, except, that is for him, who hit .367/.424/.500/.924 from April 15th to 22nd, while the team only scored 15 runs in those 8 games. How soon fans forget and start crying like Chicken Little!
Meanwhile...
The other starters (Hicks, Crawford, Morse, Pagan) have pretty good overall offensive numbers (all at or above 134 OPS+; in fact, only Sandoval is low for his position, the next lowest is Pence at 123 OPS+ which is pretty good, a lineup with 7 hitters at 120+ OPS+ is going to score a lot of runs) and the bullpen, except for occasional hiccups, like yesterday, has been stellar, with a 2.13 ERA (and the starters have been OK with a 4.02 ERA). Only the bench players have been struggling to hit, but Adrianza has a .909 OPS in 12 games as a sub (his 3 hit game helped a LOT though) and Blanco .708 OPS in 18 games as a sub.
So, overall, starting pitching could be a lot better but is at least good so far and improving, the hitting, while giving us a monster roller coaster ride, is actually in pretty great shape and should be good for the season, barring multiple injuries, and our bullpen has been superb, as it has usually been for most Sabean GMed teams. Only our bench leaves things to be desired, but it is early for them and SSS really hurts badly early in the season for reserves.
Lookin' Goood!
Thus, no need for despondency, and not just because of the small winning streak we have, but because of all the facts above. The sky was not falling, and still is not falling. Keep the faith, the team has a strong offense that should keep the runs coming most times and the pitching should be good enough to keep enough runs from not scoring to keep the wins coming. And the fielding defense is much improved this season, helping the pitching, at 12 DRS so far, which would be 78 DRS for the season, or roughly 8 wins gained from our defense, whereas last season we barely gained half a win. I still like my prediction of 90+ wins and not being surprised if they end up at or above 95 wins.
Friday, April 18, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: Defense Rising
I was just perusing the Giants defensive numbers (I was curious if Perez registered; nope) and thought I would write about their defense at, admittedly, a very early part of the season, but lots of interesting notes, I think.
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: Recent News on Panda and Pagan
Two really interesting bits of news have come out:
- Sabean says that negotiations with Pablo Sandoval has been tabled.
- Angel Pagan's time on the DL last year was not without its benefits, not all health (Merc, Schulman)
Tuesday, April 01, 2014
Your 2014 Giants: Three Righties Don't Make a Wrongy
In the wake of the first game of the season, one of the comments I've seen is about the decision to bat Sandoval third, followed by the three right-handed hitters: Posey, Pence, Morse. Conventional wisdom is that you don't want to do that because then the other team could counter that with a RHP reliever.
ogc thoughts
And that works in a general sense, but not always. The most obvious example is if Barry Bonds is part of that lineup sequence, just because the other team throws a LHP at us does not mean that suddenly, the lineup is weak where Bonds is. That's generally what's happening here too.
So yes, putting Sandoval in the middle of the right-handers might seem like a good idea, in order to break up the hitters. And Bochy is known for doing that sort of maneuvering, in order to gain an advantage. But his move makes sense in another couple of ways.
Here are the hitter's career numbers vs. RHP:
Sandoval: .300/.355/.498/.853, ISO 198
Posey: .294/.366/.444/.810, ISO 150
Pence: .283/.336/.461/.798, ISO 178
Morse: .280/.332/.470/.803, ISO 190
Not really that big of a difference among the four hitters vs. RHP. The plus of doing this is it puts the higher OBP hitter into the 3 spot, to help set up the middle of the lineup when facing RHP. In addition, his ISO and SLG is higher as well, and that's good for driving in runs as well.
That, plus Belt batting 2nd, that helps too, since he can beat on RHP, would give Sandoval opportunities to drive in runs. And that fits in with Pagan leading off, because Pagan hits much better against RHP than LHP, hitting .289/.343/.428/.771 vs. RHP, .264/.312/.411/.723 vs. LHP. Which is odd since he's a natural RHH.
Now, there is one bad thing about the sequence, but it isn't the three in RHH in the middle, but the sequence of Pagan/Belt/Sandoval up top. All three of them has hit worse against LHP in their career. Pagan particularly poorly, in the low 700 OPS range. Belt has actually hit well against LHP in his career, which is something some fans have pointed out before, but he had more separation last season, which suggests that perhaps it wasn't that he hit both equally well, but his poor batting mechanics was hurting him against RHP. Still, as shown above for the RHH, it could be that Belt hits LHP OK enough, but just kills RHP, like Posey in reverse (both Pence and Morse are remarkably even against either, which I believes helps steady an offense no matter what hand is pitching). Sandoval has hit LHP well at times, so who knows now that he is fitter this season.
Still, handedness can be utilized against each three-batter sequence. A LHP is key against Pagan/Belt/Sandoval because that neutralizes the three overall plus really cripples the offense with Pagan. A RHP is key against Posey/Pence/Morse because Posey really kills RHP. The plus for Giants fans is that Sandoval/Posey/Pence/Morse is still a great sequence of hitters, even if the other team deploys a LHP followed by a RHP.
Get Me One Time, Sure, But Twice, Three Times?
And maybe that's the clue into why Bochy is doing this. Teams don't face this lineup in a vacuum. They have to utilize resources. Pagan/Belt/Sandoval is a trigger that encourages the other team to switch to a LHP against that three hitter sequence.
If it were just Pagan, they might make due with a RHP to get through him and Belt (he's a lefty, but his history is of ups and downs, is what some of the other teams will see). Especially if Pence is the 3rd hitter instead of Sandoval, a team might want to squeak by with a RHP against these top two hitters. But three hitters who hit RHP well but LHP not as well, that's an inning right there, tempting for a team to switch to their Loogy. But then with Posey next (plus Pence and Morse, but mostly Posey, who kills LHP), the other team must, must, must go with the RHP here. That happens sometime in the 6/7 inning, let's say.
But then if they just used their top Loogy, who will they turn to in the 8/9 inning when Pagan comes up again? They will want to go to another Loogy. But most teams only have one really good Loogy, the other one is usually not as good. But if they used the better one earlier, then the Giants either face the weaker one or a RHP. Or the team could save the stronger one for later, but then the weaker one or a RHP would face Pagan/Belt/Sandoval in 6/7. Those are still good hitters, it's truly "pick your poison" time.
Then let's say we get into extra innings, or sometimes we bat around fast and get another time through before extra innings. While the Giants have often carried three lefties in recent seasons, most teams do not do that. So now we have a third time through the lineup. The other team can only use LHP once maybe twice, at some point they will have to face the Giants lineup with a RHP reliever, and we have six really good hitters in a row against RHP. Plus probably Crawford batting 7th with Arias starting.
It's like Russian Roulette with our RHP lineup, maybe you dodge them once with a Loogy, maybe twice with both Loogy, but by the third time, the lineup is set up to hurt a RHP. And that was one of our weaknesses last season, we lost a lot of games against RHP. That's seven straight hitters who hit RHP well. And had Scutaro been OK to start this season, we could have 8 hitters in the lineup who hit RHP well, no real holes anywhere, even at SS and CF.
That's been the real fun for me over the past decade or so of blogging, looking at the moves that the Giants make, then analyzing to see whether that makes sense or not. There typically is some good reason that can be found for making the moves that they do. Sometimes it is based on the reality that just because you need a certain player, it does not mean that other teams will give you him for whoever the Giants are tangling, so the Giants made a move just to make a move, in hopes that it delivers (like the Hillenbrand or Garko trades). Other times, like this time, the numbers really bear out their decision.
Sandoval and Posey are decision points in the lineup because of how much better they hit against their opposite handed pitchers (FYI, for those who don't know, Sandoval is a natural lefty - yes, he learned how to throw right-handed, in order to play SS like his hero Omar Vizquel). If the other team don't make a move, one of them will get to feast off a pitcher handedness that they love to hit against. And given this lineup, there is some incentive for the other team to burn a Loogy at some point to get through the top of the lineup, but then they must switch to a RHP when Posey comes up.
And if Belt develops like I expect him to, he could be another decision point in the lineup, killing RHP, at which point Bochy could fiddle with the lineup again, maybe bat Belt 3rd, Posey 4th, Sandoval 5th, which would really force the other team into a position they don't want to be in, facing our lineup.
And the good news, no matter how the other team tries to neutralize our lineup, Belt, Sandoval, Posey, Pence, and Morse all hit relatively well against almost all pitchers, they are pretty good against both LHP and RHP, only much better against one for Posey and Sandoval. And Scutaro, should he return at some point, is pretty evenly good too, like Pence and Morse, not that much better at one or the other. That yields a very consistent, as well as good, lineup, no matter who is thrown at them. And particularly good against RHP because Pagan and Crawford are better against RHP.
ogc thoughts
And that works in a general sense, but not always. The most obvious example is if Barry Bonds is part of that lineup sequence, just because the other team throws a LHP at us does not mean that suddenly, the lineup is weak where Bonds is. That's generally what's happening here too.
So yes, putting Sandoval in the middle of the right-handers might seem like a good idea, in order to break up the hitters. And Bochy is known for doing that sort of maneuvering, in order to gain an advantage. But his move makes sense in another couple of ways.
Here are the hitter's career numbers vs. RHP:
Sandoval: .300/.355/.498/.853, ISO 198
Posey: .294/.366/.444/.810, ISO 150
Pence: .283/.336/.461/.798, ISO 178
Morse: .280/.332/.470/.803, ISO 190
Not really that big of a difference among the four hitters vs. RHP. The plus of doing this is it puts the higher OBP hitter into the 3 spot, to help set up the middle of the lineup when facing RHP. In addition, his ISO and SLG is higher as well, and that's good for driving in runs as well.
That, plus Belt batting 2nd, that helps too, since he can beat on RHP, would give Sandoval opportunities to drive in runs. And that fits in with Pagan leading off, because Pagan hits much better against RHP than LHP, hitting .289/.343/.428/.771 vs. RHP, .264/.312/.411/.723 vs. LHP. Which is odd since he's a natural RHH.
Now, there is one bad thing about the sequence, but it isn't the three in RHH in the middle, but the sequence of Pagan/Belt/Sandoval up top. All three of them has hit worse against LHP in their career. Pagan particularly poorly, in the low 700 OPS range. Belt has actually hit well against LHP in his career, which is something some fans have pointed out before, but he had more separation last season, which suggests that perhaps it wasn't that he hit both equally well, but his poor batting mechanics was hurting him against RHP. Still, as shown above for the RHH, it could be that Belt hits LHP OK enough, but just kills RHP, like Posey in reverse (both Pence and Morse are remarkably even against either, which I believes helps steady an offense no matter what hand is pitching). Sandoval has hit LHP well at times, so who knows now that he is fitter this season.
Still, handedness can be utilized against each three-batter sequence. A LHP is key against Pagan/Belt/Sandoval because that neutralizes the three overall plus really cripples the offense with Pagan. A RHP is key against Posey/Pence/Morse because Posey really kills RHP. The plus for Giants fans is that Sandoval/Posey/Pence/Morse is still a great sequence of hitters, even if the other team deploys a LHP followed by a RHP.
Get Me One Time, Sure, But Twice, Three Times?
And maybe that's the clue into why Bochy is doing this. Teams don't face this lineup in a vacuum. They have to utilize resources. Pagan/Belt/Sandoval is a trigger that encourages the other team to switch to a LHP against that three hitter sequence.
If it were just Pagan, they might make due with a RHP to get through him and Belt (he's a lefty, but his history is of ups and downs, is what some of the other teams will see). Especially if Pence is the 3rd hitter instead of Sandoval, a team might want to squeak by with a RHP against these top two hitters. But three hitters who hit RHP well but LHP not as well, that's an inning right there, tempting for a team to switch to their Loogy. But then with Posey next (plus Pence and Morse, but mostly Posey, who kills LHP), the other team must, must, must go with the RHP here. That happens sometime in the 6/7 inning, let's say.
But then if they just used their top Loogy, who will they turn to in the 8/9 inning when Pagan comes up again? They will want to go to another Loogy. But most teams only have one really good Loogy, the other one is usually not as good. But if they used the better one earlier, then the Giants either face the weaker one or a RHP. Or the team could save the stronger one for later, but then the weaker one or a RHP would face Pagan/Belt/Sandoval in 6/7. Those are still good hitters, it's truly "pick your poison" time.
Then let's say we get into extra innings, or sometimes we bat around fast and get another time through before extra innings. While the Giants have often carried three lefties in recent seasons, most teams do not do that. So now we have a third time through the lineup. The other team can only use LHP once maybe twice, at some point they will have to face the Giants lineup with a RHP reliever, and we have six really good hitters in a row against RHP. Plus probably Crawford batting 7th with Arias starting.
It's like Russian Roulette with our RHP lineup, maybe you dodge them once with a Loogy, maybe twice with both Loogy, but by the third time, the lineup is set up to hurt a RHP. And that was one of our weaknesses last season, we lost a lot of games against RHP. That's seven straight hitters who hit RHP well. And had Scutaro been OK to start this season, we could have 8 hitters in the lineup who hit RHP well, no real holes anywhere, even at SS and CF.
That's been the real fun for me over the past decade or so of blogging, looking at the moves that the Giants make, then analyzing to see whether that makes sense or not. There typically is some good reason that can be found for making the moves that they do. Sometimes it is based on the reality that just because you need a certain player, it does not mean that other teams will give you him for whoever the Giants are tangling, so the Giants made a move just to make a move, in hopes that it delivers (like the Hillenbrand or Garko trades). Other times, like this time, the numbers really bear out their decision.
Sandoval and Posey are decision points in the lineup because of how much better they hit against their opposite handed pitchers (FYI, for those who don't know, Sandoval is a natural lefty - yes, he learned how to throw right-handed, in order to play SS like his hero Omar Vizquel). If the other team don't make a move, one of them will get to feast off a pitcher handedness that they love to hit against. And given this lineup, there is some incentive for the other team to burn a Loogy at some point to get through the top of the lineup, but then they must switch to a RHP when Posey comes up.
And if Belt develops like I expect him to, he could be another decision point in the lineup, killing RHP, at which point Bochy could fiddle with the lineup again, maybe bat Belt 3rd, Posey 4th, Sandoval 5th, which would really force the other team into a position they don't want to be in, facing our lineup.
And the good news, no matter how the other team tries to neutralize our lineup, Belt, Sandoval, Posey, Pence, and Morse all hit relatively well against almost all pitchers, they are pretty good against both LHP and RHP, only much better against one for Posey and Sandoval. And Scutaro, should he return at some point, is pretty evenly good too, like Pence and Morse, not that much better at one or the other. That yields a very consistent, as well as good, lineup, no matter who is thrown at them. And particularly good against RHP because Pagan and Crawford are better against RHP.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Your 2014 Giants FanFeast
The Giants had their annual FanFest and Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic, and Haft posted good bits of info (I would just link, but some spread it out over a number of posts, so find their links to the right if you don't already have them bookmarked, THE sources to go to for comprehensive Giants info).
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Latest Giants News
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Your 2013 Giants: Done and Done
Wow, I knew that the season was reaching a crucial point, but did not see it crashing and burning so fast. As Boof aptly commented on another post, the season appears to be done. And the Giants appear to be acknowledging this by bringing up Brett Pill and Roger Kieschnick.
ogc thoughts
Everyone has their own milestone where they give up on the season. But I prefer logic to have governance over that. One of the great tools I've seen for managing a baseball season I learned from Dusty Baker (and I've seen references to other people using this tool, I'm only acknowledging my source) during one of his interviews long ago.
One Game A Week, That's All He Asks
Basically, the rule is to make up one game in the standings per week. One of the best project management tips I have ever heard for breaking down a much larger project into an easily comprehended and calculated metric. That helps players get out from under a huge deficit in the standings and be able to take a breath and not be as nervous/pressurized about where the team is in the standings.
However, the flipside of that is if you are more games behind than weeks left in the season, then your team is in a pretty bad position in competing for the division title. And the Giants just passed that this past week, as they are now 10 games back (oops, 11 games...) and there are only 8 weeks (roughly) left in the season. While I never give up final hope until September and this rule is in effect, for me, now that we are behind by that much, looking ahead to next season while trying to be competitive should now be the focus.
I have seen a lot of people say that it has been over for a while - one in fact asked me to apologize for saying that the Giants still had a chance - so the above is the reasoning I use for guiding following my team. There is no apology forthcoming.
Frankly, some of them are those I've seen before who said the team had no chance in 2010 and 2012, that the season was over, further, are people I've seen in late 2000's decade saying that the Giants were done and going nowhere, and they were clearly wrong, so why would I listen to them now? And some were very rude to me but I've never gotten an apology nor do I expect one from people who are so delusional to think that people like me would now listen to what they are spouting off now about the Giants when they have been mostly wrong for the past six or more years about the Giants direction. Just because they think the sky is falling and it actually does one time does not make them futuristic savants whose latest missives I should heed.
Not that you should heed my missives either, I wholeheartedly believe in sharing what information I know so that if I'm as delusional as others, I get pulled back from the ledge as well. I think I've been in a good spot, the Giants weren't doing well, but there were some signs of improvement that I pointed out as positives for the future - and for all the Naysayers saying they called it, not all of you did because the pitching this last weekend was amazing and some of you thought they were done - that did not work out as I thought they might. It happens.
I still have some hope of the Giants getting back into contention for the same reasons I thought that they still had a chance. But we are so far back that we need to start at least figuring out some things for next season.
Looking Forward
Lots of things happening, lots of things to consider. Here are the ones I can remember:
The beats say that the Giants are not looking to trade anyone specifically but are at the point where they have to listen to deals and see what they can get. Sabean has already pointed out that Lincecum and Pence will get qualifying offers, which means that they get picks, and that sets the minimum bar for what the Giants would want for them. Sounds like the Giants are unlikely to trade Lincecum however, while Pence is available for the right price, but the Giants appear to still want to resign Pence.
Rumors include:
Not that I think that they will be bargains either, I expect to overpay some. In Lincecum's case, we just don't know what we are going to get. I don't expect him to get any deal over $15M per season, and when it's that close to the qualifying offer, I don't see why the Giants won't just offer around that much if he turns down the QO and why he won't resign in hopes of rebuilding his free agent value with the team for one more season. Meanwhile, I'm hoping he makes the transition in 2014 to pitcher from thrower, or if not, transition to a super utility reliever who pitches as short or as long and as often as he feels like it. I'm willing to overpay 2014 in case he's that close, and I think he is. If 2014 is another bad year, then I'll be willing to let him go.
Pence I think is way overpriced. Not that great defensively, and really, his offense isn't THAT great, though good. But the Giants offense cannot get any worse without hurting our chances in 2014 and frankly I doubt there is anyone out on the market that we can get equivalent production for cheaper cost. So I'm willing to overpay to $13-15M per year for him for 3-4 seasons to retain his offensive production.
Belt I still believe in. I understand some are frustrated, but just look at Matt Williams' arc, he took three seasons to figure things out, before busting out in his fourth season, so I would rather keep Belt to see if he can do that, he's actually hit much better than Matt did in their early seasons. When there is the potential for a Votto-like player, I think you just have to be patient with him. But Norris is pretty good too, so I would probably do that trade if it were available, but I have to think that they would want younger prospects for Norris.
Same with Sandoval. I understand why some want to trade him (particular Shankbone), but guys who are potential 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and while an offense with Posey, Pence, Belt is good, it would that much better with Sandoval. I will put up with him and be OK with getting a draft pick for him when he leaves, that's too much risk to go long-term with him without a clause on his weight.
The two I am OK with trading are Scutaro and Lopez. Scutaro the Giants really only wanted for two seasons, and he's hitting well, so if someone wants to overpay for him, great, take the deal, but it is only for so-so prospects, then that's OK, I would keep him.
Lopez makes the most sense. He's a free agent and Mijares has done very well for us, so we have a ready replacement already. Some are hoping for a bonanza like the A's got with Reddick, but really, that was just a fluke, like the Mets trading Kazmir, you have to be in the right time, right place, right players, right desperation/stupidity. You don't hope to get such deals, you just fall into them.
Still, a shutdown lefty reliever like him was shown to be very valuable during the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, and a team might be willing to overpay some to get him. He's the only one I would push to trade and do it for the best offer out there. That would also free up space for one of our AAA relievers to come up and see what he's got.
With Moscosco in tow now, the Giants now have Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Gaudin, and Moscosco as the 2014 starting rotation, not great but not too bad either. The Giants can now enter into negotiations with Lincecum wanting him to return, but not needing him to return.
ogc thoughts
Everyone has their own milestone where they give up on the season. But I prefer logic to have governance over that. One of the great tools I've seen for managing a baseball season I learned from Dusty Baker (and I've seen references to other people using this tool, I'm only acknowledging my source) during one of his interviews long ago.
One Game A Week, That's All He Asks
Basically, the rule is to make up one game in the standings per week. One of the best project management tips I have ever heard for breaking down a much larger project into an easily comprehended and calculated metric. That helps players get out from under a huge deficit in the standings and be able to take a breath and not be as nervous/pressurized about where the team is in the standings.
However, the flipside of that is if you are more games behind than weeks left in the season, then your team is in a pretty bad position in competing for the division title. And the Giants just passed that this past week, as they are now 10 games back (oops, 11 games...) and there are only 8 weeks (roughly) left in the season. While I never give up final hope until September and this rule is in effect, for me, now that we are behind by that much, looking ahead to next season while trying to be competitive should now be the focus.
I have seen a lot of people say that it has been over for a while - one in fact asked me to apologize for saying that the Giants still had a chance - so the above is the reasoning I use for guiding following my team. There is no apology forthcoming.
Frankly, some of them are those I've seen before who said the team had no chance in 2010 and 2012, that the season was over, further, are people I've seen in late 2000's decade saying that the Giants were done and going nowhere, and they were clearly wrong, so why would I listen to them now? And some were very rude to me but I've never gotten an apology nor do I expect one from people who are so delusional to think that people like me would now listen to what they are spouting off now about the Giants when they have been mostly wrong for the past six or more years about the Giants direction. Just because they think the sky is falling and it actually does one time does not make them futuristic savants whose latest missives I should heed.
Not that you should heed my missives either, I wholeheartedly believe in sharing what information I know so that if I'm as delusional as others, I get pulled back from the ledge as well. I think I've been in a good spot, the Giants weren't doing well, but there were some signs of improvement that I pointed out as positives for the future - and for all the Naysayers saying they called it, not all of you did because the pitching this last weekend was amazing and some of you thought they were done - that did not work out as I thought they might. It happens.
I still have some hope of the Giants getting back into contention for the same reasons I thought that they still had a chance. But we are so far back that we need to start at least figuring out some things for next season.
Looking Forward
Lots of things happening, lots of things to consider. Here are the ones I can remember:
- Heston was DFAed and resigned with us, he's in AAA
- Hunter Strickland was DFAed and still has a few more days before we find out what happens with him, but given he has been out since early April, I don't see any team dropping someone on their 40 man to pick up a still injured player.
- Petit was surprisingly (to me) DFAed after his nice relief outing for us, so Shankbone's observation that Petit didn't have that great of stuff in spring training seems to be the best explanation of that move.
- The Giants picked up Guillermo Moscosco from the Cubs for cash or a player to be named later, which is why the Giants dropped Petit.
- Giants activated Arias and optioned Dunning, who did a great job for us, to Fresno.
- Brian Wilson had a nice session in front of MLB teams and a handful, including the Giants, are interested in his services and are serious contenders. Still don't know if he's mad at the Giants enough to not sign with them - it seemed like he had burned that bridge already though - or if he's cooled down enough to be open to it. However, a retweet by John Shea of a Tim Brown tweet noted that Wilson signed with Dodgers. Hard to tell if that was a big middle finger to Giants or just the Dodgers love for ex-Giants (Colletti) and/or big stack of cash they have burning in their pockets. Part of me was wishing he would return, but the poor homestand put the kibosh on that, he didn't work as hard as he did to return only to pitch for a non-contender.
- Vogie still appears to be on track to return sometime in the first half of August.
- Abreu was placed on the 15 day DL while Tanaka was optioned to Fresno.
- Pill and Kieschnick were both called up,meaning Arias is the only backup MI.
The beats say that the Giants are not looking to trade anyone specifically but are at the point where they have to listen to deals and see what they can get. Sabean has already pointed out that Lincecum and Pence will get qualifying offers, which means that they get picks, and that sets the minimum bar for what the Giants would want for them. Sounds like the Giants are unlikely to trade Lincecum however, while Pence is available for the right price, but the Giants appear to still want to resign Pence.
Rumors include:
- Belt to Astros for Bud Norris (mere speculation, I think, due to Pill call-up)
- At minimum, the Giants were "hard in" on Norris previously, so that is something to note. And the Astros are looking for at least a top prospect, so that means, for the Giants, starting with Crick probably, maybe Blackburn would be OK too, to start.
- Lopez for prospects (more speculation since he's valuable to contender and a free agent after the season).
- Reportedly, Reds are interested in Pence, as well as the Yankees, Rangers and Pirates.
- Scutaro has also been subject to speculation as well among fans, due to his age and contract.
Not that I think that they will be bargains either, I expect to overpay some. In Lincecum's case, we just don't know what we are going to get. I don't expect him to get any deal over $15M per season, and when it's that close to the qualifying offer, I don't see why the Giants won't just offer around that much if he turns down the QO and why he won't resign in hopes of rebuilding his free agent value with the team for one more season. Meanwhile, I'm hoping he makes the transition in 2014 to pitcher from thrower, or if not, transition to a super utility reliever who pitches as short or as long and as often as he feels like it. I'm willing to overpay 2014 in case he's that close, and I think he is. If 2014 is another bad year, then I'll be willing to let him go.
Pence I think is way overpriced. Not that great defensively, and really, his offense isn't THAT great, though good. But the Giants offense cannot get any worse without hurting our chances in 2014 and frankly I doubt there is anyone out on the market that we can get equivalent production for cheaper cost. So I'm willing to overpay to $13-15M per year for him for 3-4 seasons to retain his offensive production.
Belt I still believe in. I understand some are frustrated, but just look at Matt Williams' arc, he took three seasons to figure things out, before busting out in his fourth season, so I would rather keep Belt to see if he can do that, he's actually hit much better than Matt did in their early seasons. When there is the potential for a Votto-like player, I think you just have to be patient with him. But Norris is pretty good too, so I would probably do that trade if it were available, but I have to think that they would want younger prospects for Norris.
Same with Sandoval. I understand why some want to trade him (particular Shankbone), but guys who are potential 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and while an offense with Posey, Pence, Belt is good, it would that much better with Sandoval. I will put up with him and be OK with getting a draft pick for him when he leaves, that's too much risk to go long-term with him without a clause on his weight.
The two I am OK with trading are Scutaro and Lopez. Scutaro the Giants really only wanted for two seasons, and he's hitting well, so if someone wants to overpay for him, great, take the deal, but it is only for so-so prospects, then that's OK, I would keep him.
Lopez makes the most sense. He's a free agent and Mijares has done very well for us, so we have a ready replacement already. Some are hoping for a bonanza like the A's got with Reddick, but really, that was just a fluke, like the Mets trading Kazmir, you have to be in the right time, right place, right players, right desperation/stupidity. You don't hope to get such deals, you just fall into them.
Still, a shutdown lefty reliever like him was shown to be very valuable during the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, and a team might be willing to overpay some to get him. He's the only one I would push to trade and do it for the best offer out there. That would also free up space for one of our AAA relievers to come up and see what he's got.
With Moscosco in tow now, the Giants now have Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Gaudin, and Moscosco as the 2014 starting rotation, not great but not too bad either. The Giants can now enter into negotiations with Lincecum wanting him to return, but not needing him to return.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Your 2013 Giants: Will This Drop Turn Into a Storm? Panda Homers
What an ace Madison Bumgarner is! Stops another four game losing streak. And he's only 23 and we have him signed, looooooooong term. And to think many people were very against selecting Madison in that draft, angry even that the Giants selected ANOTHER pitcher, when we clearly needed hitting (I'll admit wanted hitting too and wrote that the Giants better be damn sure about this but generally supported the pick; I can still remember the interview with Tidrow and Sabean afterward, and they said that they expected Madison to make the majors in two years, which is very aggressive and advanced, and dang if they were right!). But I want to talk about the Panda in this post.
Many people have been (understandably) grousing about Pablo's lack of hitting, and the go to complaint is his size. And it has costed him before, he was benched in 2010 because of that and publicly challenged by the team to get into shape. And it should not too surprising that a guy his size is DLed that he'll gain weight, because the injury interferes with his exercise routine, particularly leg injuries.
What I have been noticing is that each time he's been DLed, it takes him a few weeks to get his bat back into his Panda-licious hitting wonder. After this homer, which has been a sign of him getting his stroke back in the past, I thought I would look at this pattern.
2013
After DLing and returning, he has played 15 games, hitting .140/.219/.175/.394 with a .182 BABIP during that streak, 14 K's in 57 AB, 2 doubles in 8 hits, plus 5 walks. He just hit his first homer back. This has been the worse he has been among his warm-ups to getting back into shape.
2012
After DLing for his second hamate bone break in two seasons, he played 18 games before hitting his first homer after returning from DL. In those games, he hit .292/.347/.354/.701 with a .365 BABIP, 14 K's in 65 AB (78% contact), 4 double in 19 hits (21% XBH), plus 5 walks. In the next 20 games, until his next injury, he hit .284/.325/.554/.879 with a .300 BABIP, 12 K's in 74 AB (84% contact), 12 doubles, 1 triple, and 3 HR in 26 hits (62% XBH), with 6 walks.
After DLing for his hamstring injury, wow, didn't remember him being so cold so long, he took 32 games to hit his first homer. From August 13 to September 18, he hit .237/.291/.288/.579 with a .262 BABIP, 16 K's in 118 AB (86% contact), 4 doubles and 1 triple in 28 hits (18% XBH), plus 11 walks. He then hit homers in three straight games and for the rest of the season, he hit .318/.423/.636/1.059 with a .303 BABIP, 7 K's in 44 AB (84% contact), 2 doubles and 4 homers in 14 hits (43% XBH), plus 8 walks.
2011
After DLing for his first hamate bone break, he played 15 games before his first homer. He hit .262/.281/.328/.609 with a .314 BABIP, 11 K's in 61 AB (82% contact), 4 doubles in 16 hits (25% XBH), plus 2 walks. From June 30 to the end of the season, 78 games, he hit .326/.368/.606/.974 with a .319 BABIP, 38 K's in 282 AB (87% contact), 19 doubles, 3 triples, and 18 homers in 92 hits (43% XBH), plus 22 walks.
ogc thoughts
Looking over the various DL's, neither BABIP nor contact rate seems to be affected after his return, both show the skills that he had that season, it seems, for those two metrics. The biggest difference is his power, as evidenced by his XBH% while still getting his bat into shape, and how good it is after he gets back into shape.
Hitting his first homer seems to be a sign he's out of it, though there was one game for his second hamate break where he got 2 doubles, which is where I was going to start his good stretch, but decided to stick to homers for continuity of the stats across all the DLs. Else, his bad would have been worse, and his good would have been better, as he got a number of doubles before the homer.
So hopefully this pattern holds, and the homer he hit tonight is the start of a nice stretch of hitting for the Panda-meister for the rest of the season (health permitting).
Cain Watch
After a nice string of DOM starts, Cain has had two bad disaster starts in a row. So his lowered performance since his Perfect Game continues. Hopefully, this upcoming long rest between starts will rejuvenate his arm some, he will get roughly 10 days between starts because the rain cancelled game dropped his last start of this half, giving him long glorious days of rest.
Hopefully this will help his arm recover enough, but for something that has lingered from last season (though until the DIS starts, he looked like he might be coming out of it with some great DOM starts), I have a bad feeling that it will continue for the rest of the season, and hopefully, very hopefully, his body will recuperate over this off-season, which looks like it will be longer at the moment (i.e. no playoffs), will do his body good. And there will not be any WBC to take away any rest either.
Not that I've given up on this season, but right now, we need to focus on getting to .500 first, then we can think about making the playoffs.
Many people have been (understandably) grousing about Pablo's lack of hitting, and the go to complaint is his size. And it has costed him before, he was benched in 2010 because of that and publicly challenged by the team to get into shape. And it should not too surprising that a guy his size is DLed that he'll gain weight, because the injury interferes with his exercise routine, particularly leg injuries.
What I have been noticing is that each time he's been DLed, it takes him a few weeks to get his bat back into his Panda-licious hitting wonder. After this homer, which has been a sign of him getting his stroke back in the past, I thought I would look at this pattern.
2013
After DLing and returning, he has played 15 games, hitting .140/.219/.175/.394 with a .182 BABIP during that streak, 14 K's in 57 AB, 2 doubles in 8 hits, plus 5 walks. He just hit his first homer back. This has been the worse he has been among his warm-ups to getting back into shape.
2012
After DLing for his second hamate bone break in two seasons, he played 18 games before hitting his first homer after returning from DL. In those games, he hit .292/.347/.354/.701 with a .365 BABIP, 14 K's in 65 AB (78% contact), 4 double in 19 hits (21% XBH), plus 5 walks. In the next 20 games, until his next injury, he hit .284/.325/.554/.879 with a .300 BABIP, 12 K's in 74 AB (84% contact), 12 doubles, 1 triple, and 3 HR in 26 hits (62% XBH), with 6 walks.
After DLing for his hamstring injury, wow, didn't remember him being so cold so long, he took 32 games to hit his first homer. From August 13 to September 18, he hit .237/.291/.288/.579 with a .262 BABIP, 16 K's in 118 AB (86% contact), 4 doubles and 1 triple in 28 hits (18% XBH), plus 11 walks. He then hit homers in three straight games and for the rest of the season, he hit .318/.423/.636/1.059 with a .303 BABIP, 7 K's in 44 AB (84% contact), 2 doubles and 4 homers in 14 hits (43% XBH), plus 8 walks.
2011
After DLing for his first hamate bone break, he played 15 games before his first homer. He hit .262/.281/.328/.609 with a .314 BABIP, 11 K's in 61 AB (82% contact), 4 doubles in 16 hits (25% XBH), plus 2 walks. From June 30 to the end of the season, 78 games, he hit .326/.368/.606/.974 with a .319 BABIP, 38 K's in 282 AB (87% contact), 19 doubles, 3 triples, and 18 homers in 92 hits (43% XBH), plus 22 walks.
ogc thoughts
Looking over the various DL's, neither BABIP nor contact rate seems to be affected after his return, both show the skills that he had that season, it seems, for those two metrics. The biggest difference is his power, as evidenced by his XBH% while still getting his bat into shape, and how good it is after he gets back into shape.
Hitting his first homer seems to be a sign he's out of it, though there was one game for his second hamate break where he got 2 doubles, which is where I was going to start his good stretch, but decided to stick to homers for continuity of the stats across all the DLs. Else, his bad would have been worse, and his good would have been better, as he got a number of doubles before the homer.
So hopefully this pattern holds, and the homer he hit tonight is the start of a nice stretch of hitting for the Panda-meister for the rest of the season (health permitting).
Cain Watch
After a nice string of DOM starts, Cain has had two bad disaster starts in a row. So his lowered performance since his Perfect Game continues. Hopefully, this upcoming long rest between starts will rejuvenate his arm some, he will get roughly 10 days between starts because the rain cancelled game dropped his last start of this half, giving him long glorious days of rest.
Hopefully this will help his arm recover enough, but for something that has lingered from last season (though until the DIS starts, he looked like he might be coming out of it with some great DOM starts), I have a bad feeling that it will continue for the rest of the season, and hopefully, very hopefully, his body will recuperate over this off-season, which looks like it will be longer at the moment (i.e. no playoffs), will do his body good. And there will not be any WBC to take away any rest either.
Not that I've given up on this season, but right now, we need to focus on getting to .500 first, then we can think about making the playoffs.
Wednesday, July 03, 2013
2013 Giants: June 2013 PQS
This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of June 2013, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)