Let Me Take You Down: MLB News Around the Bases

I am going to go through some recent news, mostly ex-Giants related.

Renteria Gets Respect From Reds:  $3M

World Series MVP hero Edgar Renteria has reported signed with the Reds for the 2011 season for $3M.  He famously opined that the Giants $1M contract offer was a "total disrespect".   I wish him well, except when facing the Giants, of course, and thank him once again for his amazing performance in the World Series.

Still, to get respect, one must earn it too.  I'm willing to overlook his $18M for two seasons of essentially one season's worth of poor, for the most part, ABs where he didn't even hit as well as Neifi Perez, because of his great World Series performance.  But $1M is about all I would be willing to bet on a replay.  In 2009, it was the "asteroid" in his elbow.  In 2010, there were the array of physical maladies that brought him down.  The odds don't look better in 2011.

And $3M is basically what Huff got last season.  He at least had a great 2008 and a poor 2009, so there was some good hope that he might end up somewhere in the middle or higher, because while his 2009 was poor, his batting peripherals were still good and his main problem was a bad BABIP.  Meanwhile, Renteria now has three bad consecutive seasons on his resume.  Playing in Cincy will help with the batting line, but I doubt that will matter if he's on the trainer's table most of the season.

Take care, thanks for the glory, but I'm OK with Edgar moving on at that price.  Now the Giants can look elsewhere with more intent for a backup middle infielder.  And I assume they will continue looking for somebody to sign for under $1M to be their backup depth at starting pitching in AAA. 

Kevin Frandsen Signs with San Diego

Frandsen seeks to pursue his dream in SD.  I once had dreams of him starting at 2B for us, but he wasn't very smart mouthing off to management and pouting when he was sent down.  He had nice stats in the minors but not that good.  The writing was on the wall, so I was happy he ended up with Boston, as I think he is buddies with Dustin Pedroia.

He didn't do much last season playing for two pennant contenders (Red Sox and Angels) nor got much of a chance.  Surprised Marlins didn't latch onto him, but perhaps their opinion of him isn't strong either.  But playing for SD, I can't root for him, sorry.  His support of Fred Lewis' homophobic rants didn't help either.

If he didn't screw up his chances in 2009, he could have been part of the group in 2010 that would have brought a World Championship to SF.  Instead, Pat Burrell came in and represented local Bay Area interests.  Life is funny how it works sometimes.

Alfredo Simon Arrested for Double Murder, Get Support from new Giant

That was a shocker to see, particularly since he played nicely for the Orioles in 2010 and looked ready to finally capitalize on the talents that led the Giants to get him in the first place.  And a double murder, no less.  Then I was shocked to see that new Giant Miguel Tejada is helping Simon out with getting legal representation and so forth. 

Blyleven in Hall of Fame - FINALLY - Alomar Makes it Too

Bert Blyleven is finally in the Hall of Fame:  FINALLY!!!  I thought he was deserving from the beginning and been commenting on this across the internet for a while.  When I was growing up, he had the best curveball around and not only did he strike out a lot of batters, he compiled great stats, great except for his Win-Loss, which apparently a lot of baseball writers though was the final arbiter of how good a pitcher was.  Where were these people when Blyleven was pitching, were they sticking their heads in the sand?  This - along with why in the hell did Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Rickey Henderson, etc. not get voted in unanimously in their first year - are reasons why I have not been happy with the Hall of Fame voting over the years.

The best solution I could think of was to count it against the writers when they don't vote someone in who was clearly deserving.  For example, they could lose their vote if they don't vote and the player gets, say, 95% of the votes.  But then that would cause a lot of CYA votes, so maybe it could be a three strikes type of system.  Another nuance is that some don't vote in the first year, so maybe they won't get a strike if a player is voted in but under, say, 85% of the votes.  Anyway, I can't think of a good system, these are just some of my thoughts that I can spit out now.

Roberto Alomar got in, and frankly, I don't know if he deserves it or not.  The only thing I can recall about him is the spitting incidence and the general feeling from the media that he's a really good overall player, i.e. his defense is great.  I won't begrudge his entry, there have been plenty of players voted in that were marginal for me to greatly care as long as there were those who thought he was pretty good.

Paapfly and I got into a discussion of Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame credentials, and what I realized was that he was a really good hitter who I didn't really know much about other than I knew he was good, just not THAT good.  He probably should get in at some point but with so few votes, he probably is going to waiting around like Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven. 

Looking at his career stats, I realized that part of the reason why I am disconnected from Alomar and Bagwell is that a number of their best seasons came in the mid-to-late 90's when I was not really following the game.  After the strike of 1994, particularly after McGwire's comments and the cancelling of the World Series, I pulled my own strike of the game and I probably didn't get really fully re-engaged with the team until 2001 when Bonds set the record.

Part of that was because I was having a life, wooing my wife, marrying, having kids, but a lot of that was due to that strike of 1994.  And I guess I was not the only one, the majors have not had a strike since and they had been apparently using juiced balls to boost offense (and interest) in the majors since that strike ended, according to one famous baseball analyst, Eric Walker, as outlined in his on-line essay analysis, Silly Ball (and where he outlines some of his logic for why steroids and other PEDs could not have been responsible for this significant boost in offense).  In any case, the offense has restored the industry to new heights of robustness.

Now, baseball can work on getting Pete Rose into the Hall of Fame.  Fine, ban him from baseball, ban him from baseball management, ban him from making Hall of Fame as a manager, but the Hall of Fame is a sham until baseball's career hit leader is in there.  He epitomized all that was good about baseball when he was a player:  love for the game, maximizing your talents, playing to win.  It has been long enough now, put him in.

Ex-Giants Galore

The Pirates dropped Joe Martinez, who the Giants traded to get Lopez for the bullpen, in order to sign ex-Giants Kevin Correia to a two year contract.  I was always hoping that Correia would get a chance with the Giants, he would have been a good back of rotation starter for us, as he often pitched pretty well too. 

I wonder why he left the Padres, his childhood team.  Were they not interested?  I can't see that to be true, they will need more pitching than ever after losing Garland and Correia, and they didn't get anyone ready to contribute in the A-Gon trade with Boston, and I wasn't aware of any young stud coming up, Latos was that guy. 

It could be that Correia needed to get away, his beloved younger brother leapt to his death last spring, and maybe being around home just reminds him too much about his younger brother, who he was probably more like a father to because of their tough family circumstance in their childhood (there was a sister in-between).  Good luck to him, I wish him well.

Other News

• The Giants re-signed Guillermo Moto to another minor league contract, as they had did last year.
• Waldis Joaquin was released on waivers by the Giants, and the White Sox claimed him, but he then somehow became a free agent and re-signed back with the Giants.
• Bengie Molina apparently was offered a backup position with the Cards, behind his brother.  That has got to be a comedown for him and a big blow to his pride.  He's probably still hoping a team would sign him to be a starter, but might sign with Cards when spring training beckons.
• Boof Bonser signed with the New York Mets.  Part of me was hoping the Giants would sign him to be one of our potential call-ups in case of injury or what not happens to one of our starters.  We do not have any depth at all for the major league rotation (though honestly, most teams don't, else the guy would have signed elsewhere and be in the majors, unless, of course, the team still controls him).
• In another Pirates-ex-Giants news, Brian Burres re-signs with Pittsburgh in a minor league deal which apparently gives him an out should an Asian team be interested in signing him.
• Eric Hacker, Tony Pena Jr, Dontrelle Willis, Stephen Holm, and, maybe Clay Timpner (doing this from memory) have found new teams after the Giants released them.
• Lastly, there was a nice interview of Brandon Belt by Mychal Urban for CSN's recent Hot Stove show.  The video should be in the link.  The delay between the two is a bit jarring, FYI, for some reason Belt got Urban's talking with a 1-2 second delay.  Still, it was nice to hear and see our #1 prospect.

2010 Spring Transaction Lines: Extensions and Trade

Lots of news and further cuts.

Extensions

The big news is the extensions for Brian Wilson (2 years, $15M) and Jeremey Affeldt (bump up $500K this year, contract for $4.5M in 2011 plus $5M option for 2012 or $500K buyout). The key phrases are cost certainty (Wilson) and holding on to a good player (Affeldt's contract would have been over this season). The worry is that this would make it harder for the Giants to sign the hitter people think the Giants need.

People still worry about the lineup, but as I've been saying for a long while now is that a team built on pitching and fielding excellence - not goodness, but excellence - don't need much of a lineup to win with it. With Sandoval at cleanup (finally) in 2011, and Posey hitting 3rd, we basically only need average type hitters like Schierholt, Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa filling up the lineup in order to win with our pitching and defense.

Plus, looking over the spreadsheet that Lefty provided, we got 9 players costing around $80-85M, leaving 16 at roughly $400K, pushing it to $85-90M. That leaves roughly $10-15M if they bump to $100M budget, which with a better economy and fast growth from MLBAM should be doable, which could get a good hitter if one happens to be available.

And at some point, we have to take the leap of faith that Neukom will come through with the money as he says he would if Sabean makes the baseball case to boost the payroll beyond the normal range. I'm hoping he has sugar daddies whose pockets he can dip into when the time comes.

Frandsen Traded

Frandsen has been traded (Baggs, Hank, Haft) to the Boston Red Sox for a PTBNL or future cash. Hopefully we get a player, as I still think Frandsen could have done something, but it'll probably be cash. The good news for him is that he'll be with his good buddy, Dusty Pedroia, who he has worked out with for the past 6 off-seasons. And the Red Sox, while apparently doing it out of need as Pedroia is having wrist problems right now, wouldn't have gotten him if they didn't think that he couldn't be a good backup guy, and who knows, maybe give Frandsen a chance too, since there is a DH there as well.

Too bad. As I had ruminated somewhere, Frandsen's window of opportunity was the 2008 season and he blew it when he blew out his Achillies tendon. With Sanchez signed for two years and Noonan possibly ready by the end of that contract, plus Crawford and Burriss could be ready by 2011, and Rohlinger already annointed the next Greg Linton/Steve Scarsone, there was no spot for Frandsen anywhere, and he apparently rubbed Giants management the wrong way with his behavior previously.

Still, I think he can be a usable major leaguer. He hit well all the way up the minors - not great but good for each level - and he hit well in the majors the one time they started him regularly and gave him an extended opportunity (late 2007 season). His low strikeout rate and his walk to strikeout ratio was very good, indicative of a prospect who could hit in the majors. He appears to have a good baseball mind and reminds me a bit of Pete Rose toughness, the average type player with no obvious plus skill (except for the subtle bat discipline) but is fine is all aspects.

And those are the players that the Red Sox (and Padres and A's) like to pick up, the guys who hit well in the minors but were never given a real chance to show what they got in the majors. Hopefully Frandsen will get some sort of chance with the Red Sox.

Wellemeyer Pretty Much Annointed 5th Starter

It was reported a few days ago that Bumgarner has been sent down, leaving just Todd Wellemeyer and Kevin Pucetas battling for the 5th starter spot, but as noted by a number of sources (like Hank) Bochy has all but named Wellemeyer the 5th starter. Pucetas has done very well but when battling against a veteran who is not that old and had done well previously, he pretty much would have had to almost no-hit every appearance and strike out a ton of batters to beat out Wellemeyer when Wellemeyer has done as well as he has with a 1.35 ERA this spring.

Plus, Pucetas did not do well at all in AAA last year. Many a pitcher has had a great spring training and then sucked once he pitched in the majors. So there is no guarantee that he would have well had he won the 5th starter spot. Not that Wellemeyer is a guarantee, but when a player has done it before, it raises the odds greatly that he can do it again if pitching well. So Pucetas is looking at either the long-man role, which would not be necessary if the 5th starter isn't starting, or starting in AAA.

This is where the Frandsen story intersects with this story: Wellemeyer is a non-roster invitee and the Giants need to clear a spot on the roster to include him on the 25 man roster. And as I noted before, to open up a spot would mean dropping someone of value, it would be a cut that hurts at least a little. Frandsen being traded clears a spot.

Coincidentally, most of the reports about Frandsen opening up a spot also pointed out that the Giants might need two spots, one for Wellemeyer and one for Mota. So it looks like Mota is closing in on a middle reliever spot in the bullpen.

Wilson Bringing Out his Curveball, Finally

As Hank Schulman blogged, Brian Wilson, emboldened by (or perhaps felt the responsibility with) his new contract and status, brought out his curveball recently in a game. His curveball, which has been missing during his Giants career, was considered one of his plus pitches when he was drafted by the Giants. With him recovering from TJS when he was drafted, I guess he laid off the curveball (or was told to), plus he saw that TV show where Mariano Duncan showed off his cutter and he fell in love with it, thinking he can be like Duncan and just throw one pitch.

Good. That's a sign of a great player. He has great stuff, 100 MPH capable fastball, good cutter, good slider, and now he's bringing back his curveball, like Lincecum when he added a changeup last season, adding on a new pitch even though he was doing very well with what he already had.

This is unlike Rowand, who signs a huge contract with us but then takes two years to figure out that he should start working out in the off-season and getting into shape for playing the whole regular season. All I can say about that is that at least he is doing it now, when we have the chance to do something to get into the playoffs and maybe go deep into it with the pitching we have.

Luckily, we didn't need his bat that much the past two seasons, though it would have been nice last season as that could have gotten us to the playoffs and given us some playoff experience. But I'm not sure how far we could have gotten last year with the lineup we had. I think we should have a much better chance this season, particularly if we will be able to carry Buster Posey on the bench or starting during the playoffs.

Additional Cuts

Rotoworld.com reported that the Giants optioned Darren Ford to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels and Francisco Peguero to Augusta, plus sent Jesus Guzman and Tony Armas to minor league camp for assignment.

Ford has been the eye-opener this spring, hitting, fielding, and running his way into the hearts of Giants fans. Unfortunately, he's already 24 years old, having spent 3 seasons in Advance A-ball, so he's too old to be considered a good prospect, but if he does well in AA this year, and AAA next year, he would only be 26 years old in 2012 if he makes the majors.

People worry too much about whether a prospect is a good player or not. I mean, of course, we all want that, but we also forget that every team needs their OK players who can play OK at a position for us, while our good players lead the way to the pennant. While I wouldn't mind having a good player at every position, I know that's not realistic either, and if Ford can be a nice leadoff hitter who plays great defense in our enormous CF at AT&T Park, that would be a great and more importantly CHEAP addition to the team.

So, so what if he's old for a level, if he's showing something in spring training, that means he has something that is good enough, and maybe he can do well in AA, then AAA, then the majors.

The guy to look at long-term at CF, though, is apparently Francisco Peguero. The Giants really like him, just added him to their 40 man roster this off-season, and Baseball America ranked him 10th among Giants prospects for 2010. He'll be 22 this June, so he's getting a little old to be a good prospect at Augusta, but if he continues hitting like he did last season, he should move up to San Jose by mid-season. He's got some good speed, plus arm, so he's great defensively in CF, is usually able to put the bat on the ball (though like many, unable to take a walk), but that is OK if he is hitting to get on base (.304 career BA).

You Win Some, You Lose Some: It Is What It Is

Yes, very disappointing to be swept after sweeping the A's. Particularly because we were set up to win the series, but it happens when you are dealing with a young team. They will have glitches sometimes. They had a big one in this series.

Still, we have some positive things to take away from the series. Schierholtz continued to hit OK. Ishikawa has continued to hit OK despite sitting on the bench for a long while. Sandoval is ready now to play 3B regularly, which is where he belongs right now. Downs had a nice debut.

For all the nice touchy-feely of Juan Uribe this season, his main value was his power and he has 1 HR in 122 AB and a 131 ISO. Not good, so he just belongs on the bench and allow us to play Ishikawa at 1B, Sandoval at 3B, and Downs/Frandsen at 2B.

It would be a bad sign to me (one that would influence me to vote no against Bochy) if Bochy continues to play Uribe more than occassionally, he should not play more than the young guys right now. The only reason he was playing was because we had nobody to play 3B. Even going forward, he should not be starting if 3B is free, Frandsen should be brought up to start at 3B in that case, he has proven himself in AAA to be healthy and back to where he was before offensively, if not better defensively.

Another thing I learned is that Sanchez should sit his next start. Partly because he hasn't done well. Mostly because that would mean that the A's would face Lincecum, Johnson and Cain instead of Sanchez, Lincecum, and Johnson. I would like to see the Giants sweep the A's again, and putting our three best starters against them would help with that. Plus, if we skip his next start after that, we get to pitch Lincecum in the St. Louis series, which is one of the better teams in the NL. Then put him back into the rotation after that, as we would be facing Houston, Florida, and San Diego before the All-Star break.

And that would give us one more Lincecum start that Sunday before the All-Star Game. That is good because 1) he will probably make the All-Star team, 2) if he starts that Sunday, he goes to the bottom of the list of pitchers to use for the NL manager, 3) I don't want him pitching in the game. More pitches on his arm and all that, plus if he pitches, then he might be affected physically since he would most likely be the first pitcher starting after the break.

Personally, I think he can do it, but why push it in this case? It is not like we are making the World Series, where it would matter. But the good news is that we have that Thursday off, so even if he does play, he would only go 1 inning and then pitch again 3 days later, instead of 2. So it is not bad if he plays, just ideal if he doesn't. But he probably wants the ball badly, and I suspect that the AL will tee off on him, as he has had the yips when he faces a new pressure situation, his first game in spring training, his first MLB start, his first opening day start, his adrenaline seems to get the best of him.

That is one reason why it would be great if we can get him into the playoffs this year. Even if we get in, we probably won't get deep into it, so if we can squeak in, then Lincecum could get the sensation of pitching in his first playoff game out of the way, and be dominant in seasons going forward. But I would not make any of the crazy trades that people are suggesting we do in order to win more games. 2009 is not about the playoffs, it is about seeing which prospect to keep going forward, and who to discard.

Right now, Sandoval is a clear keeper, but Lewis, Ishikawa, Frandsen, Sanchez, are all question marks. They all have done things in the past to deserve a chance to show what he can do, but all have been up and down, none has shown much (or enough in Lewis's case) consistency in performing at the major league level.

I think Lewis will eventually snap out of it, but meanwhile, give Schierholtz a chance to play while Fred rests and figures things out. Sanchez is ace material if he can put it together, so I'm giving him a long leash, though since stamina was an issue last year, skipping a few starts with him is OK with me. Ishikawa, we have nothing better, really, so just play him the rest of the season, unplatooned, and see what happens, mix in Frandsen at 3B and Sandoval at 1B whenever he is scuffling again. Frandsen, as I've written, deserves an extended chance to start, whether at 2B or 3B or even SS. But who knows, maybe he stinks in the majors. But we won't know unless we give them extended chances to start and fail.

Fix the Mistake: Let Frandsen Start the Rest of 2009

First off, let me say that I think that Burriss is a legit prospect who probably will eventually do better in the majors than Frandsen. He plays great defense at 2B plus is good controlling his bat and not striking out too many times, plus getting walks now and again at an OK pace.

His main two problems is that 1) he can't hit for average right now, with a horrible BABIP, and 2) even when he does hit, he can't hit for any power, which is necessary for any MLB hitter who hopes to have a long career. These are two critical skills that he has not mastered well enough in the majors thus far.

Frandsen vs. Burriss

Frandsen lost the spring training competition but basically he was on the rise while Burriss on the decline by the time spring training ended. Burriss looked good beating up on the lesser pitchers who were pitching more often earlier in spring training, but as the spring progressed and the better pitchers pitched more and longer into games, they were figuring him out.

Still, I can see why the Giants decided to go with Burriss, though I still didn't agree with it. Frandsen only just recovered last fall and we had no idea whether he was fully healed (though it should be noted that he outplayed Burriss in the Arizona Fall League and though he lost to Burriss, he also batted well too, just not as good) and how he would physically stand up to play during the season. Plus Burriss had a nice end to the 2008 season, giving some indication that perhaps he can handle the job full-time.

Well, Frandsen, after his slow start, probably caused by the disappointment of ending up in AAA when he thought he would at least be a utility guy at the major league level, turned it up and is currently hitting .330/.378/.477/.855 in the minors, which is a MLE of .283/.321/.389/.710, which is not great but looks great in comparison with Burriss's current batting line of .242/.298/.273/.570. Plus, Burriss is striking out a heck of a lot more than Frandsen is. And Frandsen's defense has drawn raves in his short stints up in the majors.

The key thing about Frandsen vs. Burriss is that Burriss has not really hit well at any level in professional baseball. His hitting abilities are still a big question mark, other than we know he can avoid the strikeout on a regular basis better than most hitters. Meanwhile, Frandsen has hit at every single level in the minors, and over 3 years in AAA, he has hit .321/.383/.459/.842 overall with only 52 strikeouts in 532 AB and 9 HR, which is probably 9 more than Burriss would hit. He also had 29 walks and 24 HBP, which total more than his strikeouts.

Fix the Mistake: Call Up Frandsen and Send Down Burriss

Burriss is clearly struggling with the bat. Sure, he plays great defense, based on the sparkling plays he has done, but according to UZR, he's actually below average, trading off dependability and competitence for flashy, shining defensive plays. So he's hurting the team both offensively and defensively.

Frandsen is not looking like he's going to be that good a major leaguer, but he has shown glimpses that he could make the adjustment. We won't know whether he can or can't until we put him in the majors and give him a position to hold for a long period without fear of losing it with a short run of poor play.

One player I've seen him compared to is Dustin Pedroia, and Pedroia also did not do that great in the minors, particularly in the upper minors, but when he made the majors, he made the final adjustments needed to continue to develop and keep up his level of production at the major league level. That is what Frandsen has done his entire minor league career, so we don't know that he won't continue to develop if given a shot in the majors.

The one and only time he was given such a shot was in the last two months of 2007. From August 1st to the end of the season, Frandsen played in 43 games, started 34 of them, and hit .295/.347/.439/.786, with 4 HR in 132 AB, 8 walks, 9 strikeouts, 4 HBP. He delivered.

Burriss, on the other hand, has not delivered very often or for very long.

• From May 25 to June 18, 2008, he hit .414/.528/.517/1.045 in 29 AB
• From August 16 to September 8th, 2008, he hit .371/.463/.443/.906 in 70 AB
• From April 29 to May 14, 2009, he hit .393/.460/.429/.889 in 56 AB
• From May 23 to June 4, 2009, he hit .378/.395/.459/.854 in 37 AB

Clearly, when Burriss is on, he can be one heck of an offensive player, and that coupled with his speed would clearly amp up any offense. However, despite all the above nice stretches of hitting, he has been so cold otherwise that his career MLB batting line is only .265/.331/.304/.634, which is an OK OBP, but horrible SLG and OPS.

He needs to hit for more power, and whatever Lansford is doing with his batting stance to generate more power out of his apparently power arms is not working this far, in fact, it has regressed this season, to 31 ISO from 46 ISO last season. The average 2B in the NL this season has an ISO of 130, so he is almost 100 percentage points lower.

Therefore, the Giants need to admit that they made a mistake giving Burriss the starting job this season. They should have done that when Ishikawa was brought up by sending Burriss down and keeping Frandsen starting at 2B but didn't. They can still do it at any time.

Another option for the Giants is to shop Uribe around to another contender, though I doubt they will do that. They could trade him for a prospect, which is a pretty good return for signing Uribe to a minor league deal, and bring up Frandsen to take over that spot. Fransdsen's utility position was taken by Uribe, but the one silver lining of Frandsen going down and playing in AAA is that he has shown the Giants that he can handle the SS position defensively, and thus he could steal ABs at 2B, SS, 3B, and even LF, and play pretty much full-time, much like how Feliz got so many AB early in his career.

If he can hit over .700 OPS and play decent defense at SS, he could even replace Renteria after Renteria's contract is up. Or even give the Giants thoughts of trading Renteria to a contender if Edgar should heat up his hitting in the second half like he did last season. It does not take much offense to be average, the average NL SS is hitting .263/.322/.382/.704 currently and Frandsen's MLE is right around there. Meanwhile, Burriss is not even hitting replacement level for SS, let alone 2B.

Send Burriss down and, more importantly, bring Frandsen up. That alone could boost up the offense greatly, as he could hit 2nd until Renteria starts hitting again and be OK there. And the defense should not take that big a hit, in fact, it could be even improved with Frandsen there, as Burriss is appearing to be bringing his poor offense with him to his defensive position more often than not, given his negative UZR this season.

Then tell Frandsen that the job is his until after the September call-ups. That would give him a good 2 months to get settled in the job and see what he can do with it on a regular basis. It couldn't be much worse than what Burriss had been giving us during this season.

Give Ishikawa and Burriss More Time

I wrote the below in El Lefty Malo's post on his thoughts for May. I discussed why we should stick with Ishikawa and Burriss instead of bringing up Guzman and Frandsen, as much as I like Franny and want him up here:

About Guzman, given that his defense has been a huge problem up to now plus the A's could just have him DH, I cannot imagine that his defense at 1B could be any good so quickly. If it was that easy to do, then why wasn't it done long ago?

His defensive weakness has been known for a long time, and his bat has been known as well. He had his first big season in 2007 and played 1B there for 5 games, mostly playing 2B, 3B, LF, and DH. Seems clear to me that the opinion so far is that his bat won't play at 1B. As nice as his numbers are in AAA so far, the MLE is .269/.286/.462/.748, which is better than Ishikawa right now but not really 1B-worthy. And Ishikawa's MLE in Fresno was .267/.313/.568/.881 in 2008 with more AB's.

About Ishikawa, I understand the concern, but he had a 8 game span at the end of April (4/19 to 5/1) where he hit .348/.407/.435/.842, so it is not like he's been totally lost the whole time he's been up here. And don't forget how many homers he hit in spring training.

Now, I'm not saying to leave him in there all year, but given how badly AT&T affects left-handed hitters, particularly their power, plus hitters in general, and the fact that he has only gotten 7 starts on the road, with 4 of them at notorious pitchers parks (Dodger and PetCo), he hasn't really gotten a lot of good chances (only 3 starts in regular ballparks) to show what he is capable of.

And as much as I would love to see Frandsen starting at 2B, the same applies with Burriss.

And it won't get much better this month, with another 6 games in LA and SD, plus 3 in Seattle, another pitcher's park.

Still, you wonder about flukiness of small samples. For example, Ishikawa's hit .270/.317/.378/.695 at home, which, not great but better than his overall numbers. But that double the other day was 1-2 feet away from a homer, and would probably have been a homer in another park. Changing the double to a homer, he would be hitting .270/.317/.432/.749 at home, which is much better, and doable with great defense (so far his UZR/150 is 22, meaning he's worth 2.2 wins on defense if he continues playing at this high a level of defense; that's excellent).

The reason his numbers look really bad is that he's hitting .120/.154/.120/.274 on the road. Given his minor league numbers, that's the outlier, not his numbers in AT&T. And in those 7 starts he has faced Shawn Hill, Jake Peavey, Chris Young, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer, Jon Garland, and Ryan Dempster. Except for Hill, that's a pretty tough group of starters to be up against, he wouldn't be the first hitter to do poorly against that group.

And it is not like we have an obvious replacement ready to take over right now. I think the first choice to bring up has to be Dallas McPherson once he is ready to play and get up to speed in AAA offensively. I think whenever he is ready, then Ishikawa has to start looking over his shoulder.

But since I view 2009 as more of a learning year where we learn what our players are capable of, I would give Ishikawa at least to the end of May, and I would lean strongly towards giving him until the end of the road trip that ends on June 11th in Arizona. By then he should have plenty of ABs to be evaluated on, another few road trips to show what he got outside of SF. That's when the small samples should start evening out, if its ever going to even out.

Many players have had a bad month of April, only to do well the rest of the season. The vast majority of those players are the vets who are given the benefit of the doubt because they are vets, as most prospects just get sent down and don't get the chance to do well (or not) for the rest of the season in the majors.

If Villalona was ready to come up, then I might feel differently, but Guzman, I suspect, will be Velez with power instead of speed at 1B and with the same glove, and thus McPherson is the best guy we got to put there but he's not even playing AAA yet, is he? So I would just given Ishikawa a lot of games and see what he can do. He did nicely last season, let's see if he can recover this season. If not, move on.

Burriss is a little different in that he has options still (Ishikawa has none), doesn't provide a skill lacking on the team (Ishikawa has power), and has a replacement in AAA who conceivably is as good as he is overall (Frandsen has better offense but worse defense; speaking of which, Burriss' UZR/150 is -3.7, so he has poor offense and defense this year, though must note he had great UZR/150 in 2008). However, he has been hitting lately, so I would be inclined to keep him around as long as Ishikawa, to the end of that road trip, before bringing up Frandsen. That should be enough time for him to figure things out too.

Early Season Small Sample Fluctuations

The issue with small samples can be illustrated by how quickly things can change early in the season. Rowand, as late as April 29 was hitting a very nice .283/.358/.450/.808 overall. In the space of 4 games and a 0-for-15 skein, he dropped to .228/.299/.367/.666. I didn't see many complaining about Rowand for much of April, but once he hit this bad patch, I see a bunch of people complaining about him. But if he duplicates what he hit in his first three games of the season, he'll be back up to .267/.316/.460/.776, which is good for a CF, particularly one hitting lower in the batting order, where you want more power.

That's why it's better to try to focus on how the hitter is doing relative to his past performance, in terms of walks, strikeouts, and walks to strikeouts. As we all learned from DIPS theory, hits is related more to luck regarding the opposing defense, so as long as he seems to be going OK in terms of those ratios, then his batting skill level appears to be OK and he'll be better once things even out.

So, in Rowand's case, he has a career .321 BABIP, but his BABIP is currently .267, showing that he's suffering from a ton of bad luck right now. Luckily, according to what I read from Extra Baggs, Rowand knows he's swinging well but just suffering from bad luck, so he's keeping things going the same. Meanwhile, he's right in range for his career, with 21.5% K% vs. 19.7% K% for his career, and is high in walks with 8.0% BB% vs. 5.8% BB% for his career (BB/PA). Which means he's doing well with a 41.2% BB/K ratio vs. 32.7% BB/K for his career.

With a career average BABIP, he would be hitting .268/.339/.414/.753 right now. Not great but certainly within expected fluctuations for his career stats, and in line with what he did last season. As others have noted before, people's complaints sometimes tell more about them than what they are complaining about.

25 man Roster Clearer: Frandsen Sent Down

Andy Baggarley reports that the Giants appear to have narrowed what their 25 man roster looks like, though there are still some question marks still, here on his blog. Here is the roster:

Starting pitchers (5): Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez

Relievers (7): Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry, Alex Hinshaw, Merkin Valdez, Luis Perdomo, long man to be determined (Keiichi Yabu, Ramon Ortiz are the top in-house options).

Catchers (1): Bengie Molina.

Infielders (6): 1B Travis Ishikawa, 2B Emmanuel Burriss, SS Edgar Renteria, 3B/C Pablo Sandoval, INF Rich Aurilia, INF Juan Uribe.

Outfielders (6): CF Aaron Rowand, RF Randy Winn, LF Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholtz, Andres Torres, Eugenio Velez.

Giants Thoughts

I'll cover some of the points made in his blog and other Giants websites.

First off, I am disappointed about Frandsen, but Burriss clearly earned the job, and I agree, it is better for Frandsen to be down in AAA and starting, instead of being up here and sitting, because Burriss should be pretty much playing every game, and Uribe will get most of the leftovers at SS and 3B, while Aurilia will cover 1B and others. Frandsen would be left to PH and PR duties. After missing all of last year, he needs to kick butt in AAA like he did last time and you never know which prospect who were starting might not perform and get set down or released, at which point Frandsen would come up and take their place.

Basically Uribe took the spot Frandsen would have taken, but Uribe can play SS well while Frandsen can only play it OK. I would rather Fransden prove himself as starter material in AAA and see if an opportunity up here opens up. I'm not wishing this on them, but the odds of all of our young starters doing well is not great, so a postion could open up for Frandsen within a month or two.

And the reason they are keeping both Uribe and Aurilia, who on the surface are similar players, is that both Ishikawa and Sandoval are potential platoon players. People don't realize, because of how great Sandoval hit last season, is that his minors L/R splits are even worse than Ishikawa's, who some think should be platooned. In a worse case scenario, both will need platoon buddy: with Uribe at 3B and Aurilia at 1B. If they release either now, should they need a platoon buddly later, it is doubtful any free agent available then would be as good as either of these players. Plus, the fans need to get off a few good "Ooo-Ree-Bay"s this season. :^)

Regarding Sandoval as the backup catcher, there are normally many extra days off early in the season. That is why they used to go with a 4 man rotation early, then go with a 5 man, to keep the other guys on schedule. Thus Molina, instead of having Sandoval take a start, would get an extra day off instead. So the Giants might not need to start Sandoval much at C until May or June. And how often do the Giants pinch run for Molina, anyway?

Even if they do, he's young, only 22, he can catch once every week or two early in the season and it should not hurt him much. For example, he caught for most of last season before coming up and his hitting was pretty good, as well as his defense was OK. So catching doesn't seem to get him too tired yet, he can still hit pretty well like that. And a start here and there, a inning replacement or three, is not going to set him back in getting used to playing 3B.

The problem is that people think that this means this is what the roster will be for the entire season. I can assure you that it won't. I doubt they plan on going without Holm (or another backup catcher) for the whole season. Giants management are smart people (not perfect, smart) and I think they did this to take a longer look at Torres and Velez.

Youth movement don't mean that you aren't smart about rostering, particularly since the Giants want to finish above .500 in 2009 (which I think is an attainable goal). So you keep a vet like Uribe, who is accepting of a reserve role now that he's older, and not a youngster like Frandsen, who like most won't do that well in a utility role, they need that daily start to keep up his batting stroke up.

I'm really surprised Miller and Medders probably will be sent down, while Valdez and a long reliever will be kept. I thought Valdez was having some physical problems, I thought he would end up on the DL to start the season. But when he's on, like he was early in last season, he has to be on the staff, no question, if healthy. Still, a long reliever over Miller or Medders, who did everything they could this spring? And Hinshaw was not that effective, at least, not as much as Miller or Medders.

But I have no problem with Perdomo. He came in and did well enough that we should keep him around. Sounds like he has a live arm plus a sinker and slider. And we could lose him if we tried to get him into the minors, apparently. He was also in high demand when we picked him in the Rule 5 draft.

Overall, I cannot complain much about this roster in terms of moves they made. The guys who won jobs with their play, got jobs, for the most part, except for Miller and Medders. And I expect Valdez to flame out quickly again, which will bring up someone, and I'm not sure about Hinshaw yet, though I expect him to eventually be a good reliever in our bullpen. And who knows what will happen with Perdomo.

Lansford on KNBR

Giants hitting coach Carney Lansford was on KNBR this morning and he discussed some of the hitters with the Murph and Mac show (sidenote:  if there's anything I hate, it's when a KNBR host thinks he knows the Giants and exposes his limitations of knowledge).

• Sandoval:  "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."  Only one hitter he can think of who is a bad ball hitter like Sandoval:  Vladimir Guerrero.   He is able to square up balls that pitchers think are in the perfect location, frustrating them.  Contrary to popular (i.e. KNBR) opinion, he's not a hacker, he has more discipline than that, it is just that pitches that pitchers think are good strikes but bad for a hitter, Pablo is able to square up and hit those pitches.  It is not like he will go chasing after pitches in the dirt, as posited by the host.
• Ishikawa:  Only question this spring is whether he can hit left-handed pitching (however, didn't say that he has solved that yet, nor that he's making good progress).  When he came up, Travis learned that the book on him was that he would swing at high strikes when he hits best with low pitches.  Carney has been working with him on not biting at the higher strikes and waiting for the ball in his zone, and Carney said it has been working for him.
• Burriss/Frandsen:   both have been hitting well this spring, about equal, so it would be defense that determines who wins (if so, then Burriss wins, Frandsen is acknowledged as steady but not special defensively, whereas Burriss has the speed to get to a lot of balls). This will probably be settled the last week of spring, it is looking.
• HR Power:  Ishikawa and Sandoval will add that to lineup, plus Lewis and Rowand should hit more too, as well as Renteria, who is a professional hitter.
• WBC and Spring Training:  it normally drags for players by end of spring training normally, so WBC lengthening would make it worse.  But it is what it is, you just have to deal with it.  Been giving vets 2 days play, 1 day rest, cycle.  

That is about all that I remember, and this is what was generally said, I heard all this driving so this is all based on memory.   There might have been something said about another hitter that I can't recall everything.   Check KNBR's (new!) website if you want to hear the interview, it should be up at some point.

Roberts Out And 11 Man Bullpen

As reported on all the Giants news outlets, Dave Roberts was let go. Chris Haft had a nice blog post on Roberts's intangibles, which I still believe is valuable (though not $6.5M valuable, but that is a sunk cost already) and hopefully he'll come join the Giants as a coach, particularly baserunning instructor for the minors, in the future. Just look at what he has done with Randy Winn in the two years he's been here (Winn credited him recently), horrible SB%, and in two years he has the best SB% in his career, at the elite level. Everything looks amicable between Roberts and the Giants, just disappointing, so I'm hoping he does return to the organization as a coach eventually.

I think the writing was on the wall, though, the moment I saw the media note that Roberts was having knee problems. Injuries have basically knocked Roberts out of the Giants plans at the start of the past two seasons. He's been as advertised when healthy, but he hasn't been healthy, unfortunately for significant periods of his time with the Giants.

The Giants also recently floated the thought that they might go with 11 pitchers instead of 12, before Roberts was let go. If both are followed through with, that opens up two spots on the bench and takes away one bullpen spot.

Bullpen and Bench Swap

It is curious that they suddenly said they might go with 11 pitchers instead of 12. Of course, once the team needs 12 pitchers again, that guy who earned his way onto the starting day roster will probably be dropped back down to AAA at that point. In any case, this implies that one of the position prospects is opening their eyes more than expected.

Obviously, Velez is doing that right now, pushing out Roberts. And perhaps the talk about 11 was originally about keeping Velez until they learned more about Robert's knee and that came to the fore as a reason to get a spot. So that bears watching.

Bullpen Watch

But assuming they are sincere and separate about both statements, that makes the bullpen a bigger situation to watch. With only 6 relievers, and 3, probably 4 (Taschner), spots already spoken for (it would have been 5 if Romo was healthy and producing, I believe), that leaves two spots for Romo, Hinshaw, Sadler, Matos, Miller, Medders, Valdez, Perdomo to pursue, with Yabu and Pichardo (who could stand a year in AAA anyway) the first to miss the chair when the music stopped, which makes sense as that's a lot of competition for very few spots, one less with the move to 11 (assuming it sticks now). And Valdez only today threw his first inning, who knows how his health will turn out.

Odd thing to me is that Perdomo has been doing pretty well so far, so I would think the Giants would want to keep more relievers than less, in order to keep him. Though really, Hinshaw, Matos, and Sadler probably could use a year in AAA in 2009. Miller I saw as an upgrade on Yabu, so maybe start the season with Miller and Perdomo on the roster, both Romo and Valdez on DL or rehab, and the rest in AAA.

Then as Miller and/or Perdomo show what they can do for the Giants in the majors, Romo and Valdez, when ready, can either come up if Miller or Perdomo are failing, or Romo could still go to AAA to cool his heels (Romo could use some time there also) and Valdez would have to be waived, so I would think that if Valdez is healthy and all the relievers are doing OK, they would move to a 12 man pitching staff at that point.

In any case, Perdomo has done very well up to now, so he looks to make the roster if he can continue to do well. And if Valdez is doing well, and can stay healthy, he would also earn a spot as well, he is out of options. That could push Romo to AAA, even if he's healthy and doing well. He'll get the "Schierholtz" speech of the past two years: you should be up here but with the roster we have, you have to be in AAA. Miller looks like he's not going to make the roster unless somebody is injured or recovering from an injury, and once they are back, he'll be in AAA.

Bench Watch

The other big question then is the bench, which moves from 5 to 6. Holm, Aurilia, Uribe, Schierholtz have been pretty set and now Roberts is out, making it two spots open now instead of just the one for Roberts spot. Velez looks like he's headed for a utility role on the bench, and would probably be the first go-to guy for 2B, with Uribe covering SS, and Uribe and Aurilia covering the corner infield. Schierholtz looks to soak up most available OF starts and substitutions, with Velez as backup as really necessary. So who is opening eyes?

The position player's name that has been popping up in recent games that I've been noticing is Jesus Guzman, the former A's (and others) prospect who we signed away from the A's during the off-season. He set some records in the Venezuelan Winter League (both he and Sandoval bashed there this winter) or simply compiled big numbers there, as the case may be. He's a power hitter and plays both 1B and 3B, and he's powered out a couple of homers already. If he continues to hit well, the Giants might just decide to bring him up for at least a while and platoon with Ishikawa and Sandoval, grabbing starts at 1B and 3B, before they need to bring up the 12th pitcher.

Another name that I've seen mentioned has been John Bowker. Sabean noted him as a possibility in the outfield. But based on spring training stats, he hasn't done much of anything to warrant opening a spot for him right now. Plus, he's another left-handed power bat off the bench, which duplicates Schierholtz, who is going to get most of the ABs anyhow, and there is Ishikawa, Aurilia, Uribe, and Sandoval who can play 1B. So I believe it is him who has piqued the Giants interest.

In addition, while I haven't seen either of their names in the news, their batting lines suggest both are looking to take hold of 2B: Burriss and Frandsen. Burriss is hitting .476/.500/.571/1.071 with no strikeouts in 21 AB (but also no walks and only 2 extra-base hits, doubles, in 10 hits) and Frandsen is hitting .412/.500/.647/1.147 with no strikeouts in 17 AB (and only one walk, but with a double and HR out of 7 hits).

As nicely as Burriss is hitting, it also illustrates the reasons why the Giants would want him to go to AAA this season and work on things. First and foremost, his lack of power. I suppose Lansford's suggestions have not made it into his head yet. 20% XBH% and 95 ISO is not what you want to see, you want to see at least 30% if not 35% XBH% and ISO at least 150. Small samples, but Frandsen is showing why he should win the 2B position, 29% XBH and 235 ISO (not going to keep it that high, but illustrates his power potential differential over Burriss).

Still, if Burriss continues to hit this well, just not the way the Giants want, the Giants would probably feel like they need to start the season with him on the opening day roster on the bench, to reward his nice spring, then send him back down once they need the 12th pitcher in the bullpen.

Another Great Giants Reporter Blog; Bay Bridge Baseball

Kudos to El Lefty Malo for turning me on to Bay Bridge Baseball, published by Jeff Fletcher, formerly of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat (best wishes for finding your next job!). His site covers both A's as well as Giants, but, of course, I link above only to the Giants side.

He had a great post here, where he interviewed Bobby Evans and it is chock full of questions and information that I would have asked (which, frankly, has been lacking in most interviews or Q&A with Giants execs that I had seen before). Of course, it helped that the questions came from his readers who left the question on one of his posts, but still, very good information at this link. I'll copy what I think is good information to pass on:

• Some people have been agitating for the Giants to sign Hudson, but Evans says it is not going to happen, that they have three options they like, Frandsen, Burriss, and Velez. "We worked hard to develop those players, and we want to give them a chance."
• About Pablo and hitting homers: "I think Pablo is very much aware of the kind of player he'll be, at least this year. We all know he has power potential, but his biggest tool is going to be the bat and not so much the power. The homers will come for him, but that won't be a focus." That's good, most players turn into bad hitters trying to swing for homers, look at McGwire, he was good at USC and first year with A's then basically became a Dave Kingman-type of all or nothing hitter.
• About Pablo and 3B: "I think we're confident enough in him at third to have him as the leading candidate to play third for us. We'll evaluate him along with other options in spring training. We're confident enough at this point we haven't gone out and brought in anyone else to play third. Truth be known, we spent a lot of '08 focusing on him behind the plate, but his best position is still a great debate. What we do know is his bat fits in the lineup somewhere." He also noted that it would be nice if he is 3B, as that is a nice fit for the Giants. I'm sure we all totally agree with all this. :^)
• Confidence in Ishikawa: "I think the highest level of confidence is that we have in him is defensively he'll be above major league average at first. The offense, at a major league level, is going to be an ongoing evaluation. He's shown us things in his development and progress that give us reason to believe he'll be a very capable offensive addition in bottom end of our lineup paying first base. Ultimately his progression offensively has gotten back on track. We're optimistic that he'll carry his load well over there."
• Question whether there is any prospect better than Burriss at SS, like Brandon Crawford: "When you say 'better than' it's a hard question to answer. We like Brandon Crawford at short. We like Ehire Adrianza. We like Charlie Culberson at short, although he may profile at second as well. And Noonan can play short, but we like him more at second. But those are all solid."
• About Nate Schierholtz in RF in 2010: "I think we'll find out a lot more about Nate Schierholtz in '09 in whatever role he has on this club. One of the goals of '09 is to know as much as we can about Nate so that we make the right decision going into 2010. How confident are we? We are as confident as we need to be right now, but we have whole year to evaluate." (NOTE: Schierholtz is out of options this year, and Bobby confirmed to me that means he will be on the team in some capacity, barring something unforeseen.) If the Giants give him enough chances, I think they will be confident enough to start him in 2010. At minimum, this hopefully means they are not entertaining any thought of signing Winn to an extension.
• About where Bumgarner will be assigned: "He's got a chance to start in San Jose, but he also could make the Double A club. It's awful cold in Connecticut in April, so he might be better to start in San Jose and move later on... He'll be in minor league camp (in spring), but he'll have his time to visit with Randy Johnson and some big league players."
• About Sanchez maybe relieving in 2009: "Back and forth between bullpen and starting is not necessarily in his best interest. At times it's been in the best interest of the organization's needs at the given time. That could happen again in '09, but no question it would benefit him to stay in one role and progress in that... His best shot to help the club is as a starter, but that's always a point of discussion with how things look this spring." That's bad news to me, with the silver lining that he saves his arm while Lowry builds up his value in order to be traded, allowing Sanchez to start for 3-4 months at the end of the season after Lowry is traded to a contender.
• About Matt Downs going up and down: "Matt Downs is a very capable offensive player as well as defensively he can play a number of different places. Basically he was in a position where he played himself out of the Cal League and we wanted to advance him, but as the roster became jammed at Triple A, it made more sense for us to send him back to the Cal League where he could finish the season and complete what was a good year, as opposed to creating a spot at Double A where the roster was already full."
• About EME: "Eddy is going to be in minor league camp with hope of making the Triple A club. Certainly last year he progressed with the bat, but didn't show the power he's shown in the past. Hopefully that will come back this spring and another year removed from having been injured, he'll hopefully play a role on the Triple A club this summer." Good to hear he has a chance for AAA, that would be best for evaluating him properly. He did show power last year, however, because, as I've documented, Dodd Stadium saps a hitter's power numbers, and his road numbers, while not as strong as previous seasons, does show a fair amount of power (roughly 35 AB/HR or about 15-20 HR season).

Good Report on Frandsen Plus Rumors and Speculations

John Sickels, a minor league expert, wrote in his Minor League Ball blog the following about Kevin Frandsen:

Kevin Frandsen, SS, San Francisco Giants: Looks healthy which is the important thing after missing the season due to a torn achilles. Line drive bat, hits to the opposite field, hustles, won't have much home run power. Played shortstop down here and looked fine, can handle second base no problem defensively.

Still, Sickels thinks Kevin is a 2B in full-time play.

Baggarly's Back

Andy Baggarly had a juicy post on Giants rumors and he's not even at the GM meetings.

• The biggest news, as Andy notes:  Giants have interest in Rafael Furcal.  This makes sense, much like how the acquisiton of Rowand made sense:  add another strong vet to the mix.  In Rowand's case, it allowed Schierholtz to gain another year of experience at AAA, and Lewis backed up Roberts really well, with Schierholtz as the second alternative had the need arise.  In this case, this sets up SS, with Frandsen and Burriss fighting for 2B, and if both do well enough, Frandsen slides to 3B, with Sandoval sticking to 1B.  Also, as Baggarly also notes, he would lead off, allowing us to bat Lewis in the middle (though I was envisioning Burriss in the leadoff spot).  Plus we steal him from the D-gers, though they do have Ivan DeJesus and Chin-Lung Hu in the wings (however, DeJesus looks terrible in AFL according to Sickels and Hu didn't do well in majors last year).
  
  And this works even if injury prone Furcal - he's 31 next year and has had two straight injury reduced years, particularly in 2008 - continues to be injury prone, as that would allow Burriss and/or Frandsen time at SS. However, this only really works if it is a two year deal with an option, because we cannot be saddled with a gimpy shortstop for big bucks for a long time.  Particularly not into our prime period of 2010-2015 when we should have our best prospects productive and under our control.   Perhaps the option can be tied to playing time in 2009-10, like Vizquel's was.   He took a shorter deal with LA for more money so perhaps he might be willing to do that again.
  
  If the Giants are already looking this SS route, if Furcal falls through, perhaps they might go after Adam Everett who plays great defense but might give that back offensively. However, that would be an upgrade on last year because the SS position only hit .228/.295/.281/.576 overall. Everett over the past three seasons had OPS of .642, .599, and .601 (career .653, but much done at Houston's hitter's park. Still, he'll be 32 next year and with declines offensively, could continue to decline. Plus, it appears he was injured twice during the season (and missed a lot of time in 2007 as well), so perhaps he's an injury risk today.
  
• Other names include Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, but most probably not happening.
• Scott Eyre was mentioned, but apparently Eyre loves pitching for the Phillies and his home is close to their spring training complex.  It'll probably come to who offers the bigger bucks again, which is how we lost him to Chicago last time.
• Bengie Molina rumors appear to be just that, nothing substantial.   I would note here that I saw a headline that Pudge and Veritek will be hot commodities because of a short supply in the catcher's market, so the teams that lose out on them might decide to be more substantial with their offer for Molina in the future.
• Lastly, Andy speculates that Aaron Rowand could be in the mix in trade talks.  The market for CF is strong as evidenced by the Brewers picking up Mike Cameron's $10M option, and the Yankees and ChiSox are shopping for CF (Rowand being a former ChiSox, and they pursued him strongly before the Giants got him).  According to scouts that Baggarly spoke with, Rowand's defense has fallen so much that Randy Winn was actually better (and most reports I've heard is that he's poor in CF).    Still, any trade would have to have a substantial return and the Giants would need to get another righty hitter to balance things out, particularly if Schierholtz is the new RF.  Plus, he has limited trade protection.
• Oh, and Baggarly guesses that it's 75-25 that Cain remains a Giant.  I would think it would have to be greater than that, because I don't think any team is going to be willing to shell out that much, I would expect to get much more than what the D-backs got for Haren, and only the Rays, I think, would be in a good enough position to trade off that many young good players for a Cain - yet they don't really need a Cain, they have Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and soon Price.  

Shea Had Something to Say Too

John Shea had a column on the Giants too:

• Asked if Cain is untouchable, Sabean said, "Yes.  Clubs know that.  That hasn't necessarily discouraged clubs from inquiring or making suggestions of offers.  But we don't see anything out there that gives us a net gain by losing him."
• So to get offensive help, he will try other ways, including free agency and trades for pitchers not named Cain, Lincecum, or Wilson.  "We have a list of very definitive untouchables for various reasons.  After that, if someone wants to get creative and we could find a way to do something, even if it takes more than one prospect, we're willing to do it."
• Sabean will be attending the Giants' ownership group meeting in SF tonight.
• Sabean has been told to conduct business as usual, despite the tumbling economy, with the priority of adding a couple of hitters - a corner infielder and middle infielder to complement Sandoval and Burriss in the infield and of rebuilding the bullpen around Wilson.
• Sabean noted, "You never know if someone might be interested.  Having said that, we know what the competition's going to be.  Make no mistake.  It's a short list of quote, premium difference-makers.  Very short."
• Also reports that Furcal's group "indicated the Giants are interested in the shortstop as a leadoff hitter." 
• Basically Burriss will play either 2B or SS and Sandoval wil play either 1B or 3B.  
• Sabean has not met many agents but is expected to.  He was seen speaking to Craig Landis (former Giants prospect, FYI) who represents Bobby Howry (also a former Giants prospect).   Sabean appears confident he can redo his bullpen through free agency.
• He also met with the agent company representing Dunn, Burrell, Hudseon, and CC Sabathia (and here it is affirmed that the Giants are not in the market for front-line starting pitchers).  
• Sabean also noted that Frandsen has a shot at winning 2B starting job.  He's currently playing SS because Burriss's knee is banged up.
• Also, they are still hopeful that Lowry will be in the Opening Day rotation (imagine how good we would have been in 2008 with a healthy Lowry manning a rotation spot instead of Correia/Misch/etc.  That could have been at least a 10 game swing as those pitchers went a combined 3-13 in 29 starts;  Lowry going 8-8 instead would but the Giants at 77-85, only 8 games under .500 vs. 18 games under .500).  
• In addition, Kevin Pucetas could be in competition for the final rotation spot as well, which is surprising but a good surprise.  But still surprising given the word after the season that the team would not rush players as they had in 2008, as Pucetas was only in Advanced A San Jose and, frankly, Tim Alderson outpitched him there.   However, Kevin will be 24 next year and Alderson only 20, so with Bumgarner and Alderson probably only a season or two away from being in the majors, perhaps the Giants felt like they should take a good look at Pucetas now.

Giants Thoughts

I mainly looked here at what the Giants might do commented on that and tried not to put as much of my opinion into what I would do as I am posting tomorrowing a discussion of various free agents and my thoughts on whether we should pursue them or not.  Here, I am mainly an observer who gives opinion on what may or may not be happening.

I guess the main news is that Burriss and Sandoval pretty much owns two spots in the infield but which two depends on who the Giants acquired during the off-season.  And the threshold is high, the Giants are only looking at "premium difference makers".    Plus, as noted before, the Giants are looking to boost the bullpen.  And it appears that the Giants are not pursuing any outfielders, leaving a number of premium difference makers like Manny not part of the mix in the Giants plans. 

Looks like they will pursue Furcal, though how seriously, I don't know, as they shied away from Vlad Guerrero reportedly because of his bad back (though according to a well-respected Bay Area media member, Ted Robinson, a significant factor was because Vlad didn't like Felipe Alou).  He'll be OK with a short contract but not a long one.

And apparently they are eyeing Juan Uribe as a possible replacement for Rich Aurilia, depending on how cheaply they can get him from the ChiSox (which I would put in the category of dumpster-diving; not that there's anything wrong with that).   I am OK with that if he's cheap enough.  It'll be fun for the crowd to yell "Ooo-Ree-Bay" again.  

Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is pretty much dismissed in the above articles, but he used to play 1B like Dunn as well.  However, I doubt that his hometime discount will amount to enough for the Giants to sign him and his defense stinks, and Sabean loves good defensive players.   

Still, you never know what a player might do, because if the Giants are interested in Furcal, they are obviously entertaining thoughts of shelling out another $12-13+ M contract and maybe Burrell doesn't need the biggest contract and accepts one that is good enough, like Carlos Lee did with Houston.  Burrell is a South Bay native and I believe was a Giants fan growing up.  In addition, because his defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Giants might not want to have two subpar defensive player in Burrell and Sandoval at the corner infield spots.  We will see.

I don't think that the Giants will want to pursue Dunn.  I think there is enough interest on the part of other teams to put his price out of range of the Giants.  And he's not going to give any hometown discount to the Giants.

Same thinking on Mark Teixiera.  As much as he fits the Giants ideal 1B - hitter plus great defensively - he is with Boras and he will want one of the largest contracts in history.  I don't think the Giants want to go in that direction.

I am hoping the Giants are limiting contracts to the 2 years plus 3rd year option or at most a 3 years plus 4th year option variety so that the contracts are ending right around when we need to sign Cain and Lincecum to long term deals.  That would make it easier to trade them too.

I'm a bit afraid that the media is mentioning Bumgarner and Alderson in the trade talks and hope that is because Sabean did not explicitly name them and thus the writers are just taking an analytical leap there.  Sabean, as I noted, like to maintain a list put together by our coaches and scouts on, basically, who our keepers are and who we are willing to give up.  I assume both are on the keeper list.

Looks like the #5 spot will be competed for by Lowry, Pucetas, and probably Misch as well, and possibly Correia should he be re-signed (I'm betting that he's going to another team like the Padres instead, though).  

The outfield appear to be set with Lewis, Rowand, and Winn, with the outside possibility that the Giants will float Rowand's name to see what offers he gets.  As I noted before, I hope they keep him, I think he'll be better in 2009 and the team will be sorry to get rid of him if they do.

Given the hot market for catchers in free agency, I think some teams might decide that it would be better to have Bengie Molina than overpay for the two stars on the market, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Veritek, or, alternatively, he will look better when the two sign with other teams and the remaining bidders are left with no catcher.   However, I think it would take a pretty good offer to get the Giants to trade Molina, so I think he'll be with the team to start the season but could be gone by mid-season when the inevitable injury hits a contending team's catching and they need a catcher and thus might overbid for him.  Plus the Giants by that point should be back far enough that they could give up without shame and start building for the future again at mid-season.  

Lastly, Cain's not going anywhere because it is going to take a huge overbid to get him away from the Giants and that's been true for at least 3 years now, and if a team hasn't been willing to do that before, they are probably not willing to do it today, as he's pitching much as he has, at least at the surface. 

However, as I noted in another post, Cain greatly improved in 2008 because he actually pitched well on the road, whereas previously he only pitched well in SF and poorly on the road.  He should be ready to take off in terms of production as a starting pitcher in 2009, I would bet.

Burriss Named Starting SS for 2009

Or at least it is his position to lose: Merc's account.

Emmanuel Burriss is the first big winner in the Giants' youth movement sweepstakes.

General Manager Brian Sabean said Sunday that Burriss has made enough improvement in recent weeks that the starting shortstop job will be the 23-year-old's to lose when the Giants open camp next spring.

"He plugs that position as far as I'm concerned,'' Sabean said before the Giants' 11-6 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. "He's come a long way. He's more confident defensively, he's certainly done well with the bat — he's probably exceeded some expectations — and his arm's gotten better.''

Burriss is batting .358 (24 for 67) since mid-August...

Looks like he's learning from Carney Lansford on how to hit better. Plus, his defense was always a question mark coming up, some thought his best position would be 2B. But given the Giants plethora of options at 2B but paucity of options at SS (Bocock didn't hit well when he returned to the minors, in fact, he did extremely poorly at AAA; in the Giants season of "throw the jell-o to the wall and see what sticks" methodology to trying out prospects, Bocock didn't stick) as long as he is at least passable at SS defensively and can hit OK, he's got the job.

Also:

Burriss split time at shortstop with Vizquel for much of June and early July, but until recently his future appeared to be at second base. After more than a month at there, Burriss was in the lineup at shortstop on Aug. 29, and he's been the starter there for eight of the past nine games.

Asked if he feels like he's establishing himself as a major leaguer, Burriss said, "I feel like I'm working on it. They are putting me in the position to feel like that.''

Now the Giants are convinced he can handle shortstop. His development, especially as a hitter, convinced the Giants that he's a better alternative to seeking a free agent this winter.

So congrats to Burriss for his achievement, he has done very well since he got his chance.

SFGiants.com had their version of the events:

General manager Brian Sabean asserted Sunday that he's projecting Emmanuel Burriss as the starting shortstop as the offseason nears. The switch-hitting Burriss, 23, who has eclipsed 41-year-old Omar Vizquel as the team's primary shortstop, entered Sunday's series finale against Pittsburgh batting .355 (22-for-62) with eight RBIs in his previous 20 games...

Burriss' emergence will enable the Giants to focus more heavily on other priorities, most notably finding a power-hitting corner infielder. "You guys know the price of doing business in the market. You're not going to get a shortstop and solve your other needs, too," Sabean said.

Barely more than a month ago, Burriss was included among the crowded field of candidates for the second-base job. But since starting 24 games at second from July 27-Aug. 27, Burriss has made eight of his last nine starts at shortstop.

About the Giants 2B situation, Sabes had this to say:

Sabean was less definite about the Giants' chances of filling their second-base vacancy from within. Contenders include Eugenio Velez, Ivan Ochoa, Travis Denker and Kevin Frandsen, who's recovering from a ruptured left Achilles tendon.

"Franny's the wild card," Sabean said. "Anything he does this year, we won't critically analyze or evaluate. We're going to have to wait until Spring Training and see how it looks. Anything he does on the field, whether it's in instructional league or if we brought him up here for the end, would be a bonus."

The Merc added about the 2B situation:

Top among those needs is a second baseman. The Giants are taking a long look at defensively challenged Velez. Sabean said the club would not consider moving third-base prospect Gillaspie to second base in hopes of adding a power-hitting third baseman this winter, but said Kevin Frandsen will be in the mix even though he's missed the season with an Achilles tendon injury.

Interesting point here was the note about Gillaspie. There were rumors of moving him to 2B because it was feared that he won't hit or field good enough to man 3B. Obviously, with the call-up, he is getting his chance at 3B.

About Posey:

Sabean also sounded duly impressed after watching catcher Buster Posey play Saturday night with Class A San Jose in a California League playoff game. It was Sabean's first opportunity to see Posey perform in the flesh since the Giants selected him fifth overall in June's First-Year Player Draft.

"He was as advertised," Sabean said. "He caught and threw exceptionally well, threw a runner out easily, blocked the ball, caught third strikes." Sabean added that Posey demonstrated power, discipline and plate coverage while going 1-for-4 with an RBI single.

But Sabean said that the Giants won't summon Posey to the Majors, as they have done with third baseman Conor Gillaspie, their sandwich pick in this year's Draft.

"We've already got that position spoken for, at least for this year," Sabean said. "It would be counterproductive for the people here, not for him. He might have good experience here, but with Bengie [Molina], [Pablo] Sandoval and [Steve] Holm, there's no reason to experiment. We need to experiment more at third base."

Sounds good, plus Posey is a much larger investment, they are going to give him all the chance and time in the world to deliver value, whereas they didn't pay that much for Gillaspie, so they could be a little more rushed in evaluating him, because if he doesn't develop in three years, he's probably not the long-term solution there either.

Your 2008 Giants: Big 6 Questions

Named in honor of Big 6, Giants Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson, I will posit on what I see as the Big 6 questions that the Giants face this season. I will give my thoughts on the possible answers.

1) How Many Losses?

As I've outlined in previous posts, I think the Giants are capable of besting last year's 71 win total, even without Bonds and Feliz, and perhaps even reach the .500 mark, or 81 wins. I think they will be closer to 81 than they will be to 71. I'll give further detail in my upcoming post on my thoughts on the 2008 season.

But I will say that it looks like the theory that Sabean has been espousing in recent years, that the league will switch from power to speed, much like the 80's and the Cards, will be put into practice, as speedsters like Davis, Velez and Lewis are added to the Giants roster, with Bocock, Burriss, Richardson, and others moving up the system as well. If they can execute this well, then their offense will be better than expected (and not much is expected), and will contribute to getting their record closer to .500 than last year's record.

2) Which Young Position Players Will Shine, Which Will Fail?

Obviously, I cannot answer this question at this time but can give some thoughts. I think Dan Ortmeier can hit well enough to hold the position until one of our better prospects come up and take it over, most probably Angel Villalona by 2009-11, but it could be another prospects, as I'll go into later. Kevin Frandsen might have lost his best chance to get to start in the majors, as Eugenio Velez looks to take 2B this season at some point, but either appear to be keeping the position warm for when Nick Noonan is ready, 2010-11 time period.

The Giants could keep 3B waiting for Frandsen for 2009, but while I like his bat, I don't think it's one that is suited for 3B unless we can get power (or speed) from other positions. But there is no one in the minors who look ready to take 3B, so that works to Frandsen's advantage. My only speculation there would be perhaps the Giants might move Travis Denker there, as he has shown some power in the minors (but not real 3B power, just more than Frandsen). Velez will get a chance to be the Giants "Figgins" until he finds a position he can stick at.

In the outfield, I think Nate Schierholtz will take RF at some point, and it looks likely to me that John Bowker will eventually win LF, but unless trades happen neither will do it this season. Fred Lewis' defense appears to be pretty bad, and his offense is not good enough to counter that. As athletic as he is, he might be best suited for the DH role in the AL, utility OF role in the NL. Rajai Davis can't hit righties but mashes lefties; Dave Roberts can't hit lefties but mashes righties. Both run like the wind and are similar leadoff hitters. A better match for platoon buddies does not exist.

I think Winn will be traded by mid-season once Schierholtz shows that he can duplicate his hitting for average and power again to start the 2008 season in AAA. Winn might go earlier if the Giants are serious about letting Lewis start more, but they admit that Lewis doesn't hit lefties that well.

3) Will the Pitching Rotation Be As Good As Advertised?

I think they will be better than projections currently show, and they are pretty good already. I guess the corollary question is then, will they be healthy? And by they, I mean Cain and Lincecum. Right now, it looks good, but you can never really know. Lincecum has developed a new slider that appears to be working quite fine, thank you. So the top of our rotation looks pretty good right now and should be quite an effective 1-2 punch eventually; they will be manning the #2 and #3 spots this season, which is good, less pressure on them, particularly Lincecum, to do well.

I think Zito can do as well as he was doing in the last 1-2 months of the season, plus he added some tweaks this spring training by changing his pitching motion. He should be in the high 3's ERA range. Lowry I think will do as well as he has been doing for most of the past two seasons (around 4.00 ERA) once he returns from the DL in early May/late April and become the best #4 starter in the majors. And between Sanchez and Correia, I think at least one will do well enough and that would be good enough for the #5 starter.

4) Will Brian Wilson Sing At Closer?

I think he is finally ready. He needed his butt kicked last season and responded well to being sent down. He was superb at the end of the season pitching for us as the closer. He will greatly improve the 2007 bullpen all by himself.

5) Which Vets Will We Eventually Trade?

I think the fire sale rumor was true, as it was reported from two different media sources citing their own sources. So I think that eventually all the ones named will be traded - Aurilia, Durham, Winn, perhaps even Roberts, opening spots for young prospects to take over. I think some of the young bullpen might be traded as well, as add-ons, to get a better position player.

In a recent interview, Sabean noted that he wants a lefty to break up Molina/Rowand/Durham, but if they trade away Randy Winn and insert Nate Schierholtz there, Nate can be that lefty bat. In fact, if Schierholtz can hit like he has, we could put Molina lower in the lineup and bat Rowand or Durham in the #4 and #6 spots, with Schierholtz #5.

6) Who Will the Giants Pick With their #5 Pick Overall?

The Giants need an impact bat. Most experts I've seen think that such a bat exists for us at the #5 overall. Unfortunately, most of them are 1B, which is where the Giants are trying to move Villalona to this season. Most mock drafts have the Giants picking Justin Smoak, college 1B. There were some speculation that they might go for pitching again, but in a recent interview on KNBR, Sabean admitted that they may have overdone the pitching drafting thing, and thus would put more emphasis on position players. There is also a current 3B in Pedro Alvarez, but he's expected to go #1 and some think he's eventually moving to 1B.

The Giants also have a high supplemental first draft pick because of the Phillies signing Feliz, and a number of good hitters fell there in 2007, such as Nick Noonan. But each year is different in terms of talent pool, so you can't rely on that fact, you can only note that 2007 was good. And Noonan is no sure thing to reach the majors and do well.

Bad News: Frandsen Probably Out All 2008 Season

Boy, the season as it was, was not going to be the greatest, but there were a few things I was greatly looking forward to: Cain getting better, Lincecum getting best, and Frandsen breaking out and becoming a starter. OK, maybe not a starter, but getting a lot of ABs a la Feliz when he broke out, getting consistent ABs all over the diamond. Lewis I'll believe when I see it, I have hopes for Ortmeier but know that years of poor performance in the minors says nix on that thought, Schierholtz don't have a spot, and I don't think Davis is the real deal.

But, Bam!, suddenly Frandsen's Achilles' heal burst, along with his season, and possibly his career - opportunities like this don't fall out of the tree that often, just ask Lance Niekro. This type of injury generally requires surgery and 5-6 months of recovery. He'll be lucky to make it back before the September call-ups.

Now, with Frandsen apparently out for the season, that causes a lot of things to happen. First is that Jose Castillo is pretty much guaranteed a spot, basically the spot that Frandsen was going to get, whereas before he was just backup in case anything goes wrong, like, for example, this injury. He might also get to start a lot, like Frandsen was suppose to do, depending on how his competition does. Second, and more importantly, Eugenio Velez, who is now Castillo's main competition, is now most probably not only making the team, but probably will get a lot of starts that Frandsen was going to get.

I believe the Giants were serious about giving young guys playing time, and now that Frandsen is out, that means Velez, who was already making the Giants think about giving him starting time with his great spring, will most probably see starting time at 2B, 3B, OF, probably even SS, much like Feliz did in the season he first played in a lot of games. Heck, though he hasn't hit well as a RHH, he is a natural righty, so he might even get some of the platoon game in LF with Roberts, instead of Davis, who has been pretty invisible this spring, it seems, I can't even think of what he has done, whereas Velez has been in the media constantly.

And that kind of leads into my third thought, which is that this might work out in giving Ortmeier starting time at 1B to start the season. Durham says everything is fine, that he is starting opening day, but this is not the first time he has cried "wolf". At least once every season he has been with us, there has been a 10-15 game period where he can't play, but he says he is almost ready to play, he just doesn't want to risk anything. So I expect him to waste a spot on the bench by having his cranky body unable to start, forcing the Giants to play Aurilia at 3B, Velez at 2B, and thus Ortmeier at 1B.

Heck, I hope the Giants just DL Durham to start the season - tear the bandage off the scab - and start Velez at 2B, Aurilia at 3B, and give Ortmeier 1B for a while. In any case, Castillo would be the utility guy plus get an occassional start at 2B and 3B. And Ortmeier has been turning around his hitting the past few games after it was made known that he's not guaranteed anything. Made it seem like he had been pressing and getting that ultimatum got him over the hump and just do it, instead of worrying each AB and not doing well.

I was not sold on Velez before, but he's doing more and more to impress me. Fred Lewis too. Hopefully, now that my Frandsen hopes were dashed, we can see Ortmeier, Velez, and Lewis get a lot of ABs and show what they can do.

I Guess Lowry Won't Be Traded Now

The Giants announced today that Noah Lowry will undergo surgery on his left wrist. The 411:

Lowry, 27, was diagnosed with exertional compartmental syndrome in his forearm. Giants manager Bruce Bochy said Lowry could resume throwing in two to three weeks and might not rejoin the starting rotation until late April, although an official prognosis won't be issued until after the surgery.

The Mayo Clinic's Web site described exertional compartmental syndrome as "an exercise-induced neuromuscular condition that causes pain, swelling and sometimes even disability in affected muscles of the legs or arms. The condition can occur in both beginning and seasoned athletes in sports that involve repetitive movements."

In layman's terms, throwing causes compression in Lowry's forearm compartment, resulting in a pressure buildup that squeezes a nerve which weakens Lowry's hand. Dr. Gordon Brody will perform Lowry's surgery, which is expected to be a mild procedure, by making a small incision and releasing the fascia -- akin to slicing a sausage casing -- around the forearm muscles.

Ew, TMI!

Obviously, this should kill all the stupid Lowry for Crede trade rumors that have been flying around. Why the Giants would give up 3 cheap years of a good pitcher for one year of a below average 3B, I don't know, but all the Sabean haters were having a field day crying over how Sabean would do this trade.

I'm OK with this news. It is not great, but I'm OK because it will allow the Giants to start another pitcher in April - whether Sanchez or Misch, as I'm assuming that Correia is now in for sure, though, heck, either could push Correia out with a stellar April when Lowry comes back. In addition, Lowry clearly has been having health issues and this is probably the straw that breaks the camel's back for most teams, his value is severely devalued now, if it wasn't before. Still, getting to basically rest during April should keep Lowry fresh for the second half and he should be able to pitch the rest of the season relatively healthy (though that didn't work in 2006).

In other news, Frandsen has been removed from being the starting SS both because he was struggling there and there seems no use to putting him through a huge position change when he is struggling and it would only be for a week or two during the regular season. The leading contender is Brian Bocock, who has impressed with the glove (some report him as the best fielding SS in our system) and bat, though his bat was the problem last season in Advanced A level. Also competing are Emmanuel Burriss and last year's AAA starter, Ivan Ochoa. I would prefer Ochoa, just to see what he can do up here, but I would be OK with Bocock.

Lastly, Randy Messenger was sent down and he was not happy about it, though he has been horrible this spring, and the odds of him making the 25-man roster was between slim and none. Merkin Valdez has been having a hot spring, which is good because we are out of options and lose him if we try to waive him to the minors. Erick Threets is also out of options and likewise has been doing well. If they make it, then the odds of Jose Capellan making it seems pretty slim if the team goes with a 11 man pitching staff, as Bochy would like to do. Haven't heard what he has done so far. The bullpen right now looks like Brian Wilson, Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chulk, plus two others, with Valdez, Threets, Capellan, and Kline the main competitors there. I can see Kline being traded to make space before the end of spring. El Lefty Malo has been having a nice series of articles on the bullpen, check there for more info.

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Vizquel Injury

It has been revealed today - here is the sfgiants.com version - that Omar Vizquel injured his knee last week and when he had an MRI, they discovered that he needs surgery to fix the damage now and get him back on the field quickly for most of 2008, instead of risking that the surgery happens sometime during the season and losing a large chunk of the season. He will be out 4-6 weeks and most probably will miss some of the start of the season.

The immediate solution noted right now is for Frandsen to man Shortstop in Omar's absense, which means Aurilia at 3B and Durham at 2B, though once Omar is back, Durham might have a battle for playing time at 2B, depending on how well Aurilia hits as well, because the Giants could field Aurilia at 3B and Frandsen at 2B.

Frandsen is jazzed by the opportunity, though he took pains to note that the position is Omar's and he regrets it is an injury that gave him the opportunity. He knows that he still has to win a starting position once Omar is back. But he appreciates the Giants confidence in him and hopes to earn a starting position somewhere for 2008.

This also opens up an opportunity for Eugenio Velez to win the utility middle infielder role at the start of the season. He is still prepping for an uber-utility role - he is playing every position except for pitcher, catcher, and 1B, and I'll bet he'd be willing to catch if it got him into the majors. But he's only keeping the seat warm until Omar comes back and forces one of the starters at 2B, 3B, or SS to the bench, depending on how well Durham, Frandsen, and Aurilia hits.

Clearly, the Giants have been leaning towards Durham at 2B and Frandsen at 3B, given the little public comment on Aurilia's role. I have to assume that the only reason the Giants haven't pulled the trigger on a trade for a 3B is because they want to see how Durham and Frandsen does. If both can hit well enough, the man 2B and 3B, respectively, with Durham providing some power, and there is no need for a trade. If either struggles, then they will probably trade for Crede as oft-rumored to play 3B with the better hiter starting at 2B.

Giants Youths Seek ABs

The Giants young position duo most likely to get significant playing time in 2008 - Kevin Frandsen and Dan Ortmeier - met with the press yesterday (Wednesday), along with Brian Sabean, and the Chron and Merc had their versions of the press conference.

The Chron's version noted Kevin Frandsen's and Dan Ortmeier's determination to win playing time by building up their bodies and changing it per the team's instructions. Frandsen showed off his new physique, and Ortmeier likewise added more muscle and changed his proportions in order to generate more power.

That was the key for Geovanny Soto, a prospect for the Cubs who like Ortmeier was a good prospect coming up, but hadn't been doing much at the higher levels. So last off-season, he worked on his body and got into tip-top shape and had a monster offensive year in AAA, then coming up and earning the starting job then and for 2008.

Not that either Frandsen and Ortmeier can hit as well as Soto, just that sometimes it doesn't take much to get the prospect to another level. Also, Frandsen talked about his strong feelings of friendship and respect for Durham but also basically challenged Durham publicly that he's going to take the starting job. But can he?

Sabean had some good words to that effect, stating:

"I think at this point it looks favorable. I think the players realize that, and Boch and the coaching staff realize the transition we're in. To not give guys like Frandsen and Ortmeier a chance to play, in the phase we're in, would be counterproductive."

Still, Sabean added that nothings in stone, that the offense and roster will be a work in progress into the regular season, mainly through trade, though free agents remain a possibility. Basically, that's the same as any year, if you produce, you have nothing to worry about, if you don't, we will replace you with someone we think can do the job. Also, both players were asked about that and responded that neither of them were promised anything by Giants management. Ortmeier noted:

"But I respect that because I want to be ready to compete and win a job," Ortmeier said. "That was my mindset from the first day of the off-season and it remains the same today. Whether we sign somebody tomorrow or we don't sign anybody at all, I'm focused on being healthy and ready to contribute."

Bochy was there too and had some info to share:

"Kevin looks like he's ready to take over and play on a regular basis," Bochy said. "But you do have another second baseman (Ray Durham) who two years ago threw up some great numbers and hit in the heart of the order. We're geared toward pitching and defense, but we'll have to knock in runs, too.

"So as manager, there'll be some tough decisions, especially when you're coming off a season like we had. We want to get back on track. It usually comes down to how much trust you have in your young players and who else you have on your ballclub. Right now, I'd say Ortmeier and Frandsen would get a lot of playing time."

Bochy said Ortmeier still has to answer questions about his defense and his switch-hitting stroke, especially from the left side.

Happiness: No Feliz

The good news is that the Giants have moved on from Feliz (though there appears to be a tiny window open). They offered him a two year contract and he turned it down. So the Giants are moving on and looking into trades and other free agents, apparently.

Morgan Ensberg was mentioned by the Merc (I like him best, no cost in prospects, could be low cost/risk, high reward if he returns to past excellence, which I think is still possible, Garner didn't like him or use him well, I heard) and Crede has been a constant name tied to the Giants, and now there's a link, in that Rowand highly recommends him and Ron Schueler, Sabean's new advisor, was the ChiSox GM when they got Crede, and Ron has been pushing for Crede.

However, Sabean had to add the word "pretty", as in, "we've pretty much moved on," which leaves a window open for the Giants to sign Feliz. But that is the Chron version, the Merc version quotes instead: "We moved on," Giants G.M. Brian Sabean said. "I don't see us doing business." I don't see means that there's wiggle room for something he didn't see.

And according to the Merc, sources close to Feliz said that Feliz is thinking of dropping his agent and coming back to the Giants, either at the Giants terms (two years) or possibly even if it is only a one year contract. But according to Baggarly, it was left unclear if Sabean would reopen negotiations with Feliz.

Frandsen and Ortmeier Show

The two young players, though, were the star attractions. Both are hoping to get a lot of ABs. Ortmeier said that he wanted 500 AB, to which Frandsen then retorted that he wanted 700 AB (which is only possible if he led off and didn't walk or get HBP much). Both are excited over the opportunity they might be getting.

"It's a new era, a fresh start for all of us," Frandsen said Wednesday. "All we care about is playing for the Giants, for this city and the fans in our ballpark. We're here to show them they should be excited about us because we can play. We've watched each other have great success in the minor leagues."

Ortmeier knows that he's not going to replace Bonds's production:

"I'm definitely not going to come in and try to hit more home runs," Ortmeier said. "I'm going to try to do what I do, which is make good, consistent contact. I think I'm strong enough, and my mechanics are good enough, that if I hit the ball, it's going to go. I'm not too worried about that. You can't come and think, 'I gained 10 pounds. I'm going to hit 15 more home runs.' "

The Chron noted that at this time, Aurilia looks likely to be sharing time with both Frandsen and Ortmeier, at 3B and 1B, respectively. It also noted that with Aurilia around, the Giants will not be in the market for mentors like Tony Clark or Mark Sweeney. That kills the rumor that the Giants are interested in Tony Clark, which to me has always appeared to be just a suggestion that Clark's agent threw out there to drum up business for his client.

We'll end with a quote from Frandsen, who talked about working out with Dustin Pedroia, who the Red Sox stuck with after a horrid April:

"There's no bigger confidence boost than having someone stick with you after a month like that," Frandsen said. "It's what you'd hope the Giants would do if they give me an opportunity: stick with you and let you go through your lows, let you fight out of it."

Niekro Gone

Unsurprisingly, Lance Niekro is no longer a Giant. He recently signed with the Houston Astros, which is where he grew up when his father was an Astro player.