2015 Hall of Shame Voting: Four Gets In, But Bonds Doesn't Again

First, congrats to the deserving players who got in:

• Pedro Martinez
• Randy Johnson (former Giant!)
• John Smoltz
• Craig Biggio

ogc thoughts

This great article by USA Today's Nightingale captured my thoughts almost exactly (h/t to Raising Cain for bringing to my attention):  hypocrisy in HoF voting must end

I've been writing about this for many years now, much of the Hall of Fame voting I've been ashamed of for years (how could Willie Mays and Hank Aaron not be unanimous, among many others?), too many men who think they are above the game, and in the end, their stupidity will be acknowledged.

Bonds again getting the snub from around two-thirds of the voters just gets my blood boiling.  Use the eyes they were supposedly using to judge baseball players, it don't matter if he cheated, he already had the Hall of Fame talent.

And it could be all for naught, it could be all a big misconception, because there is an alternative theory for the offensive era that has a lot of good evidence backing that stance.  I've linked to it before, but here they are again:

Juiced ball
The Not Steroid Era

If the data in these two links are true, then these high and mighty moral sportswriters could be punishing players for taking drugs that did very little for their performance, making them look bad twice-fold in history's eyes:  first they were blind to what was happening, with nobody even following one clue, I mean Gary Hart was found to be cheating pretty easily, yet nobody followed up on McGwire when he was caught with the stuff in his locker, and the rumors were out there, so not one enterprising sportswriter thought to follow any of the clues out there?  

Then to make up for the fact that none of them were enterprising enough to follow the frequent rumors and was asleep on the job while baseball players were using en masse, they take it out on the players who appears to have used - but as the two links above assert - gained nothing (but acne and possibly shortening their lives) for taking the snake oil.

What would be karma would be if none of the voters who did not vote for Bonds or Clemens end up getting shunned from the Hall of Fame as well.

Giants Should Hire Randy Johnson as Coach

There is a very nice article by Chris Haft on sfgiants.com about Randy Johnson's influence on the Giants 2009 team. Based on what's in there, we definitely should engage Johnson in adding him as a coach somewhere in our system, whatever works for what he wants to do in his after career.
Some interesting tidbits:

Johnson imparted much of his wisdom upon his brethren in San Francisco's
starting rotation, bestowing lessons they'll ideally draw upon throughout the
future.

And:

Johnson repeated last year that his competitive philosophy revolved around his preoccupation with winning, a healthy obsession that spurred him to win 303
games in his 22-year career. As Giants right-hander Matt Cain explained, Johnson's approach proved infectious.

"He really made an impact on us as a staff to try to lead this team to a victory," Cain said Wednesday, one day after Johnson announced his retirement. "And then the hitters [would] do the same thing. He kind of joined our staff together and motivated us, and I think that motivated the whole team. I feel like we clicked as a group a lot better than we have in the past."

And:

During his retirement conference call, Johnson expressed a desire to coach that stemmed from his interactions with teammates in recent seasons.

"The one thing I really enjoyed the last few years, for anybody who wants to listen, is help people," Johnson said.

And:

Each of San Francisco's starters absorbed Johnson's counsel.

Hearing Johnson urge him not to feel satisfied with success, Tim Lincecum won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award.

Thrilled to have such an eminent left-hander in his midst, Barry Zito performed with renewed focus as the Giants won 18 of his 33 starts.

"He's a Hall of Fame guy," Cain said of Johnson. "You want him to remember that you played your heart out with him. It's a great opportunity that we got to play with him, not just another face we played against. It was a lot of fun to be a teammate of his."

Jonathan Sanchez, who reminded Johnson of himself, crept closer toward gaining true consistency and scraped the ceiling of his skill by no-hitting San Diego on July 10. Sanchez, said Johnson, was "a lot like I was at a young age. He has everything there; he has to put it together."

And:

Cain himself might have been Johnson's sharpest pupil. They played catch together before Spring Training workouts, but Cain took more from Johnson than just hundreds of throws.

"We had a ton of sit-down conversations in spring," said Cain, who listened to Johnson discuss the essentials of developing sound preparation, maintaining intensity on the mound and taking nothing for granted.

Cain endured poor run support while posting a 15-30 mark in 2007-08. The Giants scored more often for Cain in 2009, but he seized upon his improved backing by avoiding the late-inning collapses that occasionally plagued him.

This was partly a product of Johnson's telling him that whether he found himself
in the first, fifth or ninth inning, each frame was important.

"It really helped me stay focused longer through the game and throughout the season," Cain said. Result: Cain won 12 of his first 14 decisions, finished 14-8 and made his first NL All-Star team.

And:

"When you actually saw him go out there and take that mentality to the field -- he wasn't just saying it, he believed in it and made you believe in it," Cain said.

And:

"I think we'll always think back to the mentality we took in every start," Cain said. "It improved me a lot."

Giants Thoughts

Hopefully the Giants management who attended the press conference where Johnson talked about all this pulled Randy aside afterward to talk about him taking on a coaching role with us when he is ready. I am afraid, however, that his home might be in Arizona, and given his long tenure there, both would point towards him working for them.

But as I noted in my post about his retirement, he should be studied for a chapter in The Giants Way manual on how a pitcher should operate and make that SOP (standard operating procedure) for every pitcher coming through the Giants system. And if he could be a coach in our system and teach what he knows, all the better.

Though, I don't know what is so revolutionary about Johnson telling Cain that "whether he found himself in the first, fifth or ninth inning, each frame was important." I (and many other baseball fans) could have told him that. It must have been in the way Johnson delivered it. :^)

Well, his stature in the game will certain give any advice he gives as coach that much more rigor and standing. Good luck to Randy, and I hope the Giants were one of the people listening to Randy when he spoke about wanting to help people. He mentioned in an interview that there will be nothing in life that will give him that feeling of competition like he felt when he was pitching, but there is the next best thing: being manager.

And in the meantime, maybe Randy can work on that chapter on pitching for us. :^)

Don't Touch His O.J.: Randy Johnson Announces His Retirement

Most of the Giants news outlets have put out this news - I don't feel like linking to all of them - but I do want to link to this nice article by CBS Sport's Scott Miller on Randy Johnson and his career.

My title refers to the anecdote that Miller provides at the start of his article. Apparently he monitored the level of his orange juice so that he would know if his roommate was taking any from him.

What is more important is the behind the scene story about what Randy Johnson did to become the great pitcher that he was. The article goes into some detail of all the things he would do to prepare himself to compete throughout his career. The Giants Way manual that Neukom was talking about creating could have one chapter which simply would be this article detailing Johnson's methods to his greatness and that would be a good chapter for pitchers. If the Giants were smart, they would have had someone studying Johnson's methods, documenting them, and preserving it for the Giants future pitchers to read and study.

Thanks to Randy Johnson for coming to San Francisco and being a strong example for Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez to study from. Heck, probably Madison Bumgarner too, being a lefty and on the club for almost the month of September, I would hope he bent Johnson's ear and I would bet that Johnson would have gone and bent Bumgarner's ear anyway.

Given his accomplishments, if he's not a unanimous first year Hall of Fame inductee in five years, the voters who didn't vote for him should lose their eligibility. He has done amazing things, probably nothing more amazing than winning 300 games despite not being very good his first full season, then only average for another 3, before finally putting it together at age 29.

Then he had one heck of a run: 6 seasons with Seattle (plus brief Houston) averaging nearly 16 wins per season, then 6 seasons with Arizona averaging 17 wins per season, then 2 seasons with the Yankees at 17 wins per season. 14 years, 231 wins, average of 16.5 wins per season. One of the best sprints to 300 wins done mostly on the wrong side of 30.

Enjoy your retirement, it was well earned.

The 2009 GIants are 44-37: Reeling in the Marlins

The Giants just took another series, taking down the Houston Astro's pretty decisively, winning first 13-0 then 9-0, behind the Big Sadowski and the Kid, before losing to Roy Oswalt (no shame there, he's a pretty good pitcher). More importantly, Randy Johnson injured himself swinging the bat in the loss and he is probably out indefinitely. He got an MRI today to check things out, and while the results were not released, he has been put on the DL and Frandsen has been called up.

Even if he had gotten a healthy bill of health, I would think the Giants would still just skip his next start, which is the last one before the All-Star game and just have him rest until the rotation is rejiggered after the All-Star break. This will give his old body a long extended rest, which is good. Also, it would give the Giants the chance to start Jonathan Sanchez and see how his time off has fixed him up (or not, as the case may be).

And with a stretch of 20 straight days of games to August 6th after the break, the Giants could feasible run a 6 man rotation during that period so that all the pitchers would pitch on the same number of days of rest as they would when there is a day off in there. That would be three starts for each before we would need to take the 6th man out. That would give Sadowski and Sanchez a good number of starts to see how good they are with the league scouting them and trying to figure them out. It would also give all of our starters, both young and old, less starts during the season and thus less wear and tear.

And if that works, then starting August 14th is another 17 straight days of games, or about another 3 starts for each of the 6 starters, if the Giants decide that they should continue that. Heck, if it is working, they could just keep the 6 man rotation going through the stretch between August 7th and 12th.

The only thing I would advise is setting up and/or revising the rotation to make sure it is our three best starters facing the D-gers from August 10th to 12th and ideally against the Rockies from July 24th to 26th and during the games in late August. Plus, adjustment of the rotation should have our best starters facing the D-gers in September for those two series, sacrificing the D-Rox series in-between, if necessary.

The Giants are now leading the race for the wild card playoff spot by 1.5 games over the Brewers, 2.0 games over the Rockies and Marlins (who happen to be our next opponents), and 3.0 games ahead of the Cubs. In addition, they have currently 7.5 back, which is getting close to striking distance, but still pretty far back. I think there will be hope if we are at within 6 games by the All-Star break.

Coin Flip - Almost - Giants Making Playoffs

In any case, according to AccuScore, which projects current stats and situations and similates that for the rest of the season, the Giants improved their chances this past week to 42.5% of making the playoffs. They still have a 8.2% chance of winning the division (D-gers according to AccuScore, is a lock at 89.2% chance of winning the NL West) but have a pretty good chance of winning the wild-card spot, though still not likely to do that, approximately a third of a chance.

Marlins

The Giants could pull a bit farther away from a competitor for the wild card with a series victory, or push them away one arm's length with a series sweep. However, a sweep is not likely and even a series victory will take some doing, we would have to outperform to do that.

Game 1: Cain vs. Sean West

Sean West beat the Giants for his first major league win about a month ago, but since then has a 6.30 ERA, allowing 5 runs twice in his last three starts. Cain, meanwhile, has been one of the best pitchers in the majors, earning his first All-Star berth, along with Tim Lincecum who earned his second, but will be making his first (hopefully) because last year he was hospitalized with flu symptoms before the game. The Giants should win unless West is a Giants killer.

Game 2: Zito vs. Josh Johnson

Josh Johnson is the Marlin's ace, 7-1 with 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. The Giants missed him the last time around, but Johnson has been pretty good for the most part, except for a blip last week against the Nationals, so he should be tough against us, he hasn't been carrying forward bad performances.

Zito, meanwhile, has been able to strike out more than one per inning and yet has been hit like pinata for those games too. He hasn't had a well-pitched game since late May, early June. This should be a loss unless Zito is able to take advantage of his extra stuff that he has shown lately. Over his last 7 starts, in 37.1 innings he has struck out 36 and walked 19, but given up 41 hits and 5 HR. Both are bad luck figures, as his BABIP is .336 during that period and during his career it has been more in the .260-.280 range, and his HR/9 is 1.21 when it is 0.94 for his career. He's also a bit over on walks, but his increase in strikeouts should have covered that. It was the extra hits and homers that have hurt his ERA, which was over 6 for those seven starts.

Game 3: The Big Sadowski vs. Chris Volstad

In a season of nice stories, Sadowski is the nicest. Hardly ever used in college, his mother contacted all 30 major league teams to get them to send their Miami area scout to check out her son in a private session. Only 2 did so, the Giants being one of them. However, soon all the teams wanted to check him out, and the Giants ended up selecting him in the 12th round of the draft, even though he had not played much college ball.

Then, once he started playing for us, he started having headaches and got so sick that he couldn't pitch in the playoffs. After the season, while at home, his doctors diagnosed that he had a subdural hematoma (basically bleeding in the brain cavity) that he speculates happened when he fell in a shower earlier in the season (but he doesn't believe that was it), which the doctors had no idea how that got there. After emergency brain surgery to remove the blood and two days of intensive care, he was OK, but needed protection for his head where the surgery was, so he constructed his own plastic protection device that wasn't so bulky.

Then a couple of years ago, he had a more conventional injury (shoulder injury) that nonetheless kept him out. But he kept on working hard and learning, and then finally had some good luck (for him) in that the pitcher more likely to be called up was Kevin Pucetas, but he had just started and thus would be starting on two days rest, so Sadowski got the call and now has racked up two straight shutout performances. Not bad for a pitcher who, when his AAA manager called him in, thought he had been sold to a Japanese team as per the rumors he had heard.

His background and his limited "stuff" suggests that major league hitters will catch up with him sooner or later. At minimum, clearly he won't end his career with a 0.00 ERA, but he has shown that he knows how to pitch, so he at least should be effective for at least a little while longer.

Meanwhile, he faces Chris Volstad, a prospect with a lot more hype than Sadowski ever had, but who, after a nice 6-4 season last year with a 2.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, has a 5-8 record thus far with a 4.85 ERA but nicer 1.28 WHIP. Unfortunately for him, batters have been homer happy against him, with 17 HR in 98.1 IP and 17 games, which is pretty bad. And he has shown no recent trend that suggests that this might end, other than facing the heretofore punchless Giants lineup that blasted out 30 HR in their last 33 games, and 23 HR in their last 20 games. And he is a RHP and our powers are from the left. Still, he has had a nice start in 2 of his last three starts, plus pitched well against the Giants a month ago, so I would have to put this game as up in the air.

Giants Thoughts

This series can go either way. It will take some more good pitching from Sadowski and/or good hitting from the lineup to win the series, as we should win the first but lose the second. And the Marlins have been hot in recent games too. But as long as we are not swept, I would be OK with the results.

With Johnson on the DL, we get to see how Sanchez has improved (or not) with his time off to set himself straight while also rewarding Sadowski for his great performance thus far. This will give both a chance to shine or not. And that's what we need this season, see how our young prospects can perform, or not, for us.

While Frandsen is not starting today, I have to hope that Bochy would start Frandsen more times than not while Johnson is on the DL. Again, we need to see how Frandsen could do, not allow a washed up infielder like Uribe a lot of ABs when we have a valid prospect who could be something. Frandsen has earned that chance.

This series is a critical one for the Giants lineup. Schierholtz and Ishikawa is starting to cool off from their hot hitting since they started getting regular starts. Rowland too. However, Molina and Winn has started getting hot lately, which helped with the explosion of run scoring in recent games. The Giants have scored 6 or more runs 7 times in the past 11 games. In addition, they scored 9 plus runs in 3 of the past 7 games, while also scoring 2 runs or less 3 times also.

As noted, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain were named to the All Star game. Pablo Sandoval can be voted in, so I suggest you go out and vote for Kung Fu Panda, like I did. He really deserves to be named, but every year there is always someone who deserves to go but is snubbed.

Paying Forward: Sanchez and Sandoval

I was going to do two different posts but, basically, both are two stories of paying forward so I put them together. First, I will cover how Jose Uribe's contributed to Pablo Sandoval's development. Then I will cover how The Big Unit is helping out with Jonathan Sanchez's development. I think this justifies every penny we are paying Randy Johnson, and leads me to say that if Johnson wants to pitch next year, we should re-sign him and let Bumgarner and Alderson spend a full year in AAA in 2010 in preparation for joining our starting rotation in 2011.

Uribe and Sandoval: Tying the Knot

Most of you probably don't know this but I got my start doing this sort of stuff by writing about the Giants for Fanhome (which then became Scout.com; the Giants section was called SF Dugout back then), which was fed out to Yahoo. Here is a link to my first article, which explained that Jose Uribe helped with Vladimir Guerrero's early development by coming by his neighborhood and donating nine gloves to the kids, which allowed them to play baseball properly. And the rest, as they say, is history, Vlad eventually was signed and became the great player that he is today.

Remembering the kindness of Uribe, Vlad has been paying forward, bringing not only gloves, but clothes and other equipment, as well as building a proper baseball field. As accounted in today's article by the great Andy Baggarly in the San Jose Mercury, one day he donated a bunch of his used footwear to a cousin of his, who happened to be in the Giants farm system, but when it didn't fit his cousin, he passed it on to a fellow player on that short-season team who did have size 11 feet, Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval told Vlad, when they were on the field together in this last series, that Vlad's shoes got him to the big leagues.

And that seems totally appropriate because there have been a lot of comments about how Sandoval's hitting reminds people of how Vlad hits because, while he swings at a lot more pitches than most hitters, particularly out of the strike zone, he's able to position himself so that he gets the barrel on the ball and get hits. After starting out cold to start the season (many new starters appear to get the yips early on before getting their bearings), Sandoval has been bringing things up a notch, little by little, culminating in his recently ended 10 game hitting streak, where he hit .471 including four homers.

He is now hitting .330, good for fifth in the NL, which is bringing talk that perhaps he can be a perenial contender for the batting title. People complain that he doesn't take walks (or balls) but as Bochy noted in Baggarly's article, Tony Gwynn never got a lot of walks either, because players like him and Sandoval usually can put the ball in play when they swing the bat.

Baggarly had a nice discussion on how the Sandoval is adjusting his batting tactics this season, per the Giants suggestions. Not wanting to kill their golden goose, the Giants don't want to discourage his "bad-ball brilliance" but rather, show a more discerning eye at the plate. That would also explain his slow start, as he worked on doing that instead of just swinging and hitting.

The stats Baggarly noted on show that he's improving. His pitches per plate appearance is up 10%, from 3.11 last season to 3.46 so far this season. He is also swinging at the first pitch much less as well, only 45% this year vs. 50% last year. In addition, overall, he is swinging at only 58% of pitches this year vs. 64% last year. The results: he is hitting .330/.373/.536/.909.

That's why walks are overrated by the Giants fanbase and sabermetricians, who parrot the Moneyball line about OBP. Ultimately, if you have the choice between two similar players with the same OBP, you want the one who has the higher batting average, which by definition therefore has a lower walk rate, because the batting average boost both OBP and SLG. That's the ying and yang of offense, you want to both get on base (OBP) and drive in baseruners (SLG). That's a nuance that escapes many: of course, it's better, given the choice, to take a walk rather than make an out, but if a guy can hit well and not strike out much at the same time, a low walk rate is not bad. It didn't hurt Tony Gwynn, nor did it hurt Vlad.

Of course, there are few who can hit like Gwynn or Vlad. But so far in his career (careeer batting line of .336/.367/.518/.885) and only at the tender age of 22 (he'll be 23 in mid-August), Sandoval is doing a pretty good imitation of them.

As noted by Baggarly, one of the fears has been that pitchers would adjust to his aggressive tendencies this season, and he would not hit like he did last season. I didn't think that would happen because teams have known about his aggressive tendencies since he first joined the Giants, and every year, at every level, the pitchers were not able to control Kung Fu Panda. In fact, he figured them out more often than they figured him out:

2006 - A: 17.0% K%
2007 - A+: 13.0% K%
2008 - A+: 14.3% K%
2008 - AA: 11.4% K%
2008 - MLB: 9.7% K%
2009 - MLB: 14.7% K%

And while his K% went up this season, it should be noted that his BB% has gone up too, making his BB/K rise from last year's 0.29 to this season's 0.39, and that a major league hitter who can keep his K% at 15% and lower is among the elite of the league. The batting average of hitters who can keep their K% between 10% and 14% average around .285 batting average.

And with his increase in BB%, he greatly improved his batting average potential. For hitters who strike out as much as Sandoval is right now, those who walk at 5% and under average only a .269 batting average, while those above 5% to 10%, average a .279 batting average. He is also hitting more doubles as well.

I would also note that his cartoon-ish high .367 BABIP last year - each hitter's BABIP is individual - is being repeated this year, as his BABIP is currently .361. If this is his normal level of production, he would be one of the highest in the majors right now and, as noted, a perenial contender for the batting title.

Mike Scioscia was quoted in Baggarly's article:

"I tell you, he's a special talent at the plate. On video, we saw him hit some balls a really long way. The thing I notice is he's got good balance at the plate. There are some things you can try to do, but you don't have the margin of error you might have with other hitters wh ohave soft zones. He's too strong and his bat is too quick. You can try to get under his swing, and we've done it a couple of times. But if you don't get it there, you've seen what can happen."

I think I'll end with Vlad's comment to Baggerly:

"Leave him alone. If he's hitting the ball like that, hey, let him hit."

Yoda Unit and Luke Sanchez

In a nice article by Andrew Pentis, it discusses how The Big Unit, Randy Johnson, is actively mentoring Jonathan Sanchez. That is one of the benefits that was discussed about adding Johnson to the team. I won't go through all the details - and there is a lot of great detail, so I recommend going there if you want that - but would note that Johnson is giving a ship-load of advice to Sanchez and being a hard taskmaster.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, but that would explain to me how Sanchez has been so up and down (mostly down) this season. He is thinking too much on the mound, and so he reverts back to his learning mode, which as Malcolm Gladwell noted in his article about choking and the art of failure. And that's not a bad thing in the long run, but has been pretty bad in the short run.

He is being driven by lofty goals. He wants to be like his fellow rotation mates - and that's a tall order with the current Cy Young winner, three Cy Young winners in total, and one (Cain) looking to be in the hunt for the Cy Young this season. He also wants to pitch 7 innings every time, but has rarely made the 7th, let alone pitch through it. And, so these goals could also be affecting him as well, making him think too much.

A player, including particularly a pitcher, need to be able to do everything that they do reflexively and subconsciously, using muscle memory, or they will get what people call "the yips". That is demonstrated when a catcher suddenly cannot throw the ball to the pitcher, launching towards secondbase, or an infielder who suddenly cannot throw to a base without throwing it over the fielder's head. I think this explains Sanchez's regression this year.

I think it will all pay off eventually, but "when" is the operative word. The team cannot wait much longer for him to start putting it all together. We have been good enough to still be over .500 even with him sucking so badly, but now that we are so close to the prize - a playoff spot, as they are only 1 game behind St Louis - the Giants are trying to shore up the weak points on the team. That's why Burriss was sent down to AAA so quickly, without waiting for Frandsen to be available to call up, and that is why Fred Lewis has become the 4th OF and Schierholtz has been seeing regular starts now - he has started in 6 of his and the Giants last 7 games.

I think that the Giants will skip at least one of his starts, that has been Bochy's M.O., and if he doesn't make enough progress, perhaps another one, and just let him relieve and get his mind back into order by giving it a rest. Hopefully that will be enough, but perhaps Johnson should also skip on his lectures for now until after the All-Star break, to give his pupil a mental break. Sometimes you are getting so many instructions that you feel overwhelmed.

That's what happened when I learned how to drive a stick shift. My friend, bless his heart, taught me how to drive, but was constantly in my face about everything that I needed a break and ended the lesson. I drove home and then just leisurely drove around my quiet neighborhood and, once the pressure was off, I was soon shifting very well (though once I burned some rubber and revved the engine, catching the attention of a couple of cute girls, who appeared to think I was doing that to impress them).

I think that Sanchez after the break will be more like the dominant pitcher he was last season, than the lost pitcher he has been this season. He has been pitching scared and thinking too much to let his abilities show, and the break will do him well. But I think that Johnson will have to be less of the stern teacher and more the supportive buddy to help with that.

Still, overall, based on the great reportage by Pentis, I would have to say that the Randy Johnson Experiment has been a great success. The details of how he has been tutoring Sanchez has been amazing. I was leaning towards letting him go and getting a draft pick for him, maybe, but now I think we have to resign him and let him work on helping our young prospects in the minors during the September call-ups (you have to think that Bumgarner and Alderson will be up here) and spring training next year. He, himself, hasn't been that great overall, but has been OK enough that we are winning games with him pitching and is worth the tradeoff in terms of him helping Sanchez reach his potential. I hope we keep him.

2009 Giants are 16-14: Washington Nats Next

Wow, what a weekend series! Zito outduels Billingsley, Sanchez just stunk (bringing up the question again whether his going to WBC affected his preparations for this season), and Lincecum and bullpen beats Weaver and bullpen, which I had noted that if we could get into their middle relief guys, like Wade, Ohman, and Mota, we could beat them.

By winning another series, the Giants are now 4.5 games back of LA and 4 games ahead of third place D-backs, who just cost their manager his job (and A.J. Hinch taking over), D-Rox (their manager should not feel secure either), and 'Dres, which, after a nice start has stumbled badly, losing 8 of 10 to fall from .500 at 11-11 to 13-19.

Washington Nationals

Back home, where the home cookin's fine - the Giants are 10-4 for the season at home - here are the matchups for the series, which looks good for a possible sweep, particularly since we won all 7 games last season with basically the same lineup (and the Nats have given up at least 9 runs for the 4th time in the last 6 games):

• Randy Johnson vs. Daniel Cabrera: Johnson has been good one game, bad the next; he was bad the last start, so maybe he'll be good this time. Also, as I noted, understandable that he got beat up in Colorado, since he no longer has the heat, and Arizona, where it was very emotional for him. Now he's at home against 10-19 Nats, who is starting Cabrera, who has been tantalizing teams for years now with his potential. He has not had one start that can be considered even OK, though his ERA is only 4.85, which is OK overall. Johnson should beat him easily unless those bad starts are really a sign of the beginning of the end for him.
• Matt Cain vs. Jordan Zimmerman: Cain has been dominating all season and look to continue again, as he has always done well in SF. Zimmerman, after two fine starts to begin the season, looks like the scouts have gotten to him, as he has had two horrible starts, both at extreme pitcher's parks, DC and LA. This is as much in the pocket as one can hope for in baseball, though there's always a chance we lose.
• Barry Zito vs. Shairon Martis: The prodigal son returns as Shairon, whom the Giants traded, essentially, for two months of Mike Stanton and the draft pick we used to draft Charlie Culberson, is now on the MLB club and doing OK, with a 4.67 ERA. Zito has been way hot, though, so he should beat the average and inconsistent Martis.

That's about all anyone can expect out of Martis, he was just slated as a middle rotation guy when we traded him and got two great months of relief out Stanton, plus got to draft Culberson, whose prospect star has dimmed but still has some potential. I would still do the trade, he's not that good.

However, he has had two nice starts in a row, one very good, one OK except for all the hits (Nats have Dunn in LF and at 1B, and he has been horrible at either position defensively, costly roughly 5-6 wins per season at the rate he's going). Still, overall, he had one DOM start, one DIS start, rest OK, using PQS rating, so he's not that good but not that bad either, as he limits DIS starts and that's a skill too. He could be tough if he continues his streak of good starts.

Meanwhile, Zito has been on a great streak, with four straight games of shutout for 6 IP and only 4 ER in his last 26.1 IP for a 1.37 ERA,, 21 hits and 6 walks vs. 16 strikeouts for a 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, and good 2.67 K/BB over that stretch, and 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, and good 2.00 K/BB for the season. I'm worried that he has so few strikeouts, but it's OK as long as he keeps his walk rate so low it's OK, which he's never really done before, though it was pretty good his first couple of seasons with the A's, and thus he had K/BB over the 2.0 level that marks a good pitcher normally those two seasons, another sign that he's back to his early career effectiveness overall.

The Giants have won his last 4 starts with just a combined 10 runs scored, only 2.5 runs scored per start; in fact, the Giants have scored only 2.5 runs per game for Zito the whole season, yet he has pitched so well that we are 4-2 in games he started. Thus, we should win the game, though Martis could put it back together again and make the game tough for Zito and the Giants to win and perhaps steal a win here.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants have a good chance of sweeping the Nationals, who, despite picking up Adam Dunn and Joe Beimel via free agency, and Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen via trade, and averaging over 5 runs scored per game, has also been giving up a lot more runs, almost 6 runs allowed per game (despite 5.38 ERA; product of lots of errors and hits, particularly from Dunn's poor defense). Beimel and Dunn have been as good as advertised, but Willingham hasn't seen regular play yet and Olsen has been horrible for the most part. Their bright spots have been Ryan Zimmerman and John Lannan, but pretty bad otherwise; as there is only one starter and two relievers with ERA under 4.50 (and all below 4.00), two starts in the high 4's, and a whole bunch of pitchers with ERAs over 5.40, mostly relievers.

Once you get past their tepid starting, a team can feast on their bullpen for the most part. Missing their best starter, Lannan, the Giants can expect to boost their overall scoring average these three games facing three mediocre starters who have averaged less than 6 IP per game (Cabrera below 5 IP) and getting into their putrid bullpen that had kindled many a rally when the starters have been OK. The offense will appear revived and the Giants should win the series if not sweep.

Meanwhile the D-gers face the World Series Champion Phillies, which have struggled to stay at .500 this season, and get a good draw, facing 3 of the Phillies worse starters this season, though Hamels had his first good start after struggling all season, and starting to look like the pitcher he has been the past two seasons. However, Park has been as bad as I've been saying he would be outside of Dodger Stadium and Moyer appears to be finally succumbing to age, though perhaps it was just the Mets, as he had won his prior three starts with OK to good starts. And Park at least did well his last start.

So from the Giants viewpoint, the D-gers are facing the Phillies at the right time, as their starters are starting to warm up and start doing well. Still with Kershaw vs. Park, Wolf vs. Moyer, and Billingsley vs. Hamel, the D-gers look good for winning at least 2 out of 3 with an outside chance of a sweep themselves, though the silver lining is that they are playing in the Phillies hitter's park.

Still, this is mostly the same Phillies team that won last season. It has been mostly their pitching that has costed the team as the offense (about 5.7 runs scored per games) and defense (only 1 unearned run for the season; compared with the Nat's 21 uneared runs) have produced, and the pitching staff ERA is 5.39. And their pitching appears to be turning around.

The Giants look like they have a excellent chance to win the series (and a good chance to perhaps gain one game on the D-gers), just as they have been doing if for much of the season since that early 6 game losing streak on the road, either winning the series or spliting the two gamers: the Giants have won 6 series and split two series since losing those two series, for a total of 7 series won this season.

The following series will be a test for the Giants as they face the Mets, who has won their last 7 games and 8 of 10, to take the division lead in the NL East, rushing by the surprising Florida Marlins. The good news there is that the Mets has been only roughly .500 on the road this season.

And the rest of the month is now starting to look good for the Giants instead of tough when the month began. We could catch a break on the next road trip, as both San Diego and Seattle has been in a bad streak of losses lately, 2-8 for SD and 3-7 for Seattle, and thus not look as bad as they appeared to be when I first looked at the May schedule. Just goes to show how things can change suddenly for any team. And Atlanta and St. Louis don't look too tough right now either, though both could revive by month's end.

The Giants are now 6-4 for the month of May and it looks like they could be able to keep their record at or above .500 for the rest of the month, both overall and for the month. This could be the latest they have been .500 in a season since 2006, when they were at last at .500 on July 27, 2006.

First Start of the Season: Not too Surprising

After everyone got their starts, the results are not that surprising and does not dull my excitement for this rotation in 2009:

• Lincecum was amped up and didn't have good control. He has done this before: his first spring start, his first major league start, now his first opening day start. He should settle down and be OK.
• Randy Johnson is an old pro and gave up a homer - for the first time in his 22 year career - to the opposing pitcher; otherwise he was pretty good. He shouldn't be giving up another homer to the opposing pitcher again.
• Cain was Cain, usually good, often excellent: this time he was pure Cain sugar, putting together a nice 5 PQS start and getting run support for once (something that the #3 starter for the Giants have been getting the past two seasons).
• Zito was Zito, unfortunately: disappointing, which is what we've been regularly getting. However, there is a silver lining in his outing: he's like Lincecum, he's lousy when he's amped up, because, belying his zen image, he is like most of us who get a bit skittish when in the limelight. The good news is that he reportedly looked good, and had great stuff. But like he has for us the past two seasons, when the pressure is on, he doesn't do very well. Hopefully he will settle into being the #4 starter, and the good thing was after his bad first inning, he settled down enough for 3 IP, 1 run, had 3 strikeouts.
• Sanchez was Sanchez, for good and bad: he was absolutely filthy early on, 5 strikeouts in 2 innings, 7 strikeouts in 4, but then lost his focus on the #7 batter, the backup catcher, giving up 2 homers and letting that affect his pitching afterward. But he's young, he'll learn something from this and I think that's a good (though not perfect) start to what I think will be his breakout season.

Ideally the pitching could have been better, but overall I am happy with the results. All the pitchers looked pretty good except for a few problems, problems I would not expect to continue for the whole season, though obviously Zito will have to be watched.

Go Giants!

Johnson Mentoring

Speaking of mentoring young players, which I wrote about Roberts in my last post, Randy Johnson has come to the Giants looking to mentor our young pitchers, as reported in the Sacramento Bee the other day, after Johnson's first appearance in front of Giants fans at the FanFest last weekend.

"I'm not going to preach to these guys," Johnson said, "but I'm willing to help anybody that wants help."

Here is some other interesting information from his press conference:

And it was the formerly tight-lipped Johnson who mesmerized reporters with his illuminating thoughts during a fascinating 26-minute news conference that needed only three questions and a follow-up.

The Big Unit pulled back the curtain to reveal the Big Talker. He spoke about the intangibles he'd bring to the Giants. He got choked up, and his eyes welled when he spoke of missing his father, who passed away in 1992. And the 6-foot-10 Livermore product talked about coming full circle, both in life and his career, which will culminate in Cooperstown.

"My ability and my skills may have diminished," Johnson said, "but my edge and my will to win have not."

Think Tim Lincecum, who grew up in Seattle watching Johnson pull the national pastime off life support, couldn't use a fireside chat or five (one for each of Johnson's Cy Youngs) on how to handle the trappings of such success?

"It's going to be awesome," said Lincecum, the reigning National League Cy Young king.

What's truly awesome is Johnson paying it forward.

As a wild, young flame-thrower, he bent the ears of some of the game's greatest power pitchers, from Warren Spahn to Nolan Ryan to Bob Gibson to Tom Seaver.

Giants Thoughts

This is something like what the Giants were hoping from Matt Morris, and Matt Cain did learn some things from him. But he was never a fireballing pitcher like Johnson. And Johnson also spoke with some of the greats of the past, Spahn, Ryan, Gibson, Seaver. You rarely hear Bob Gibson's name anymore, he disappeared off the radar after he retired, so Johnson must have seeked him out.

In addition, he's a lefty and thus would have some appropriate hand-sided tips to pass on to fellow fireballing lefties Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. He could pay off on his salary without throwing a pitch if he can impart any lessons to Sanchez and Bumgarner that they can take and be more productive going forward.

Furthermore, since Johnson has changed from a fireballer to more of a pitcher in recent years, he might also have some words of advice that Cain, Lincecum, and Zito can learn from. Particularly Zito since we still have him for another 5 years, $100M+. But Cain is also a tip or two away from improving from a good starter to an elite starter, which Lincecum was last season. He made a leap in 2008 by pitching as well on the road as he did at home previously. Hopefully he can take another leap in 2009.

2009 Pitching Rotation

According to accounts, such as Hank Schulman, the pitching rotation will be Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and the #5 starter, Sanchez or Lowry.

As others have noted, such as McCovey Chronicles and Bay City Ball, that is a pretty good rotation order. As Bochy has noted in recent interviews, like on KNBR, he likes this rotation because it splits up the lefties. As Chris/Xanthan notes in Bay City Ball, having Zito in #4 spot is pretty good. I think he should be past the point where he's insulted by his spot in the rotation and be focused more on pitching well no matter where he is in the rotation.

Obviously, it's do or die for him and the contract and he's already got two strikes against him. I think this is the season he finally delivers what we have been hoping to get from him with this contract. As I noted in previous posts, he struck out more in 3 games sequences in 2008 than he has since his early years. He's also working out like a demon this off-season with Wilson and I think Wilson's hang-loose attitude could rub off on Zito and help him not over-think so much when he pitches in 2009, which I think hurt him as the contract weighed on him.

As I noted here on Bay Bridge Baseball, I think that the Giants should start Sanchez no matter what and just keep Lowry in the bullpen as long relief/spot starter. I don't think that there is any way his arm is ready for a full MLB season and let's him get acclimated to MLB again while being backup should any starter goes down or is ineffective, particularly Randy Johnson since he's going to be 45 years old.

Meanwhile, Sanchez is on the brink of a breakout season where he could warrant a premier middle-lineup hitter in exchange next off-season if he puts it all together. It would be a total waste to put him back in the bullpen in face of that, particularly since if we put Lowry in the rotation and he puts in another nice season, he's still not going to net us a middle-lineup hitter in trade.

Either way, an OK Sanchez or Lowry should mop up against other teams' #5 starters, they should end up doing very well for themselves in the win column. Most team's #5 are lucky if their ERA are in the 5's, and whoever wins should be good for ERA under 5.

I believe that the competition between Sanchez and Lowry is mainly manufactured to 1) give Sanchez compeitition so that he doesn't mail it in during spring training and 2) give Lowry further incentive to do well and prove that he's back in spring training so that he doesn't mentally give up had there not been any spot available for him to win, plus to show respect for what he had done previously as a starters for us. I believe that Sanchez should win the "competition", thus allowing Lowry to sit in the bullpen and work his way back to the rotation.

Also, given the extreme youth (Cain and Lincecum) and age (Johnson) in the rotation, it might make sense for the Giants to go with a 6 man rotation after the All Star break, or starting in August, where most makeup games for rained out games are scheduled, with the 6th man's spot skipped where there is actually a free day that week. And if Sanchez does prove to be inconsistent again in the first half of 2009, then we could switch him to the bullpen and start Lowry, assuming Lowry was successful in the first half, and hopefully build value for trading Lowry in the off-season since he's still cheap for 2010 assuming he can start OK. Or make him and Lowry alternate being the 6th rotation skip.

I think being in the #3 spot will help Cain in that the opposing starter will be that much less talented and he will finally put together a winning season in the 12-15 win range, and perhaps even have an outside shot at winning 20. Given how well he has pitched plus improvement, his ERA should be in the 3.5 ERA range and most middle rotation guys have an ERA in the 4.5 range, yielding a Pythagorean of roughly 20 wins. Not likely, but I think he finally ends up with more wins than losses in 2009.

Lincecum, barring any setback, god forbid, should do alright for himself again being the ace of the staff, though not 18-5 good, maybe more like 15-10 good. Being at the top of the rotation instead of #3 will mean he face better pitchers generally, but if he can continue to keep his ERA under 3.00, as he has since the end of May 2007, it won't matter much who we face, he'll be winning games with him starting.

Johnson I think will be in the worse position out of the starters. He had a competitive enough ERA in 2008 for a #2 starter (a THT study had ace starters under 4.00 ERA, #2 starters in the low 4's or better, #3 starters in mid-4's, #4 starters in high-4's, and #5 starters in 5's and 6's), but assuming some decline due to his age, that means that he's probably going to be seeing a losing record overall assuming that other team's #2 continue doing well. That works for the Giants brass because Johnson is a rental and the main point with him is not to have a winning record in particular but to reach 300 wins, take some pressure off the young starters, particularly Cain, Zito, and Sanchez, and impart some sage mentoring to Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez. And should he succumb physically to age finally, Lowry should be there to take over the rest of the season, which gives Lowry some early rest to build up strength and get used to things again. The only way his contract don't work is if he injures himself early and don't pitch much if at all for us.

Overall, I think we have a strong rotation that will pitch well for us and be one of the top rotations in 2009 in the NL. I think the offense will be improved enough for that to translate into more wins and get us to .500 or nearly so. While the offense will still be below average as most fans still complain about, that is not the point, for as long as the rotation and bullpen are above average, that should be enough for us to win our share of games and be competitive in the poor NL West division.

And a Gung Hay Fat Choy to everyone! Go Giants!

Early Merry Christmas for 2009: Randy Johnson signs!

Info from AP here:  $8M contract plus up to $5M in performance incentives. Another solid move this off-season by the Giants and Sabean.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants have to be considered favorites for the division in 2009, particularly if they keep Sanchez and he develops as I envision him doing, sub-4 ERA in 2009, putting together everything he has learned the past few seasons.  With a rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito, and Sanchez, it won't matter which team we face, we will have a chance to win each game if our starters are on, and I think they will be on more often than not.

People worry about the offense but just because it is not a better offense in the league does not mean they cannot win.  With our starting pitching and now our bullpen, our offense should be more than enough to win this division, even if LA resigns Manny and Lowe, particularly if LA don't sign one or the other or both.  They are the last team who has not suffered significant losses to their starting lineup/rotation this off-season.