News from Chron and Merc.
Posey Extension Openness
Biggest news for me is that the Giants and Posey stated publicly that they are open to discussing a long-term contract this spring. Of course, that don't mean that they will come to an agreement, but it is good that it is at least out in public, the Giants generally don't talk about such stuff unless they are serious about getting it done (like with all of Cain's extensions, Lowry's, Sandoval's, Bumgarner's).
Posey Handling Affects Belt
Meanwhile, the Giants plan to keep on keeping on: their 2012 handling of Posey will continue into 2013. He will continue to see a lot of time at 1B, and given how well Belt played last season, the Giants plan on moving him to LF a lot of those times if he continues to earn it. So Blanco should not get too comfortable starting out there in LF.
I still think the Giants should just make Belt the LF, so that he gets acclimated to playing there full-time, and sign someone who can play 1B well and hit well enough to play there most games. I always thought Ishikawa would be perfect for that, but there must be other lefties who play defense well at 1B while hitting OK. Besides, we know that either Sandoval or Posey will end up starting at 1B some day, so Belt's hold on the position is tentative at best, anyway, in the long run.
No Extension for Lincecum
I was hoping maybe for something, but this made the most sense. Sabean does not envision a contract extension for The Kid (see his new look? check this link) before the season ends. Lincecum is in poor negotiating position due to his poor 2012 and thus his side will not be as interested in talking unless you are ignoring his 2012 and acting like it never happened. The Giants, meanwhile, don't want to give him a big contract if 2012 is a precursor to Tim's future performances, as his seasonal performances have been in a downtrend. But if he has a good season, and he needed to get into great shape this off-season to do that, I think, the Giants probably would kick the tires with him at the end of the season, in order to try to sign him during the period they have exclusivity to talk with him.
Given how he was about money before, though, I expect him to test the free agent waters and get $25M+ per season from some team for 4-5 years, I can't see any team giving him that big a contract to his age 35 (which a 6 year contract would do). I don't see the Giants doing that. But I hope they offer him a big short term deal, he claims to like short term deals more, around $27M for 2 years plus an option (let's say $26M for 2014 and $27M for 2015), see if we can entice him to stay that way.
Unfortunately Pablo Needs to Slim Down
This is such an old story. Sounds like they are playing nice in the press and saying that they think that he can slim down in time for the regular season. I'm just glad he has no more hamate bones to break, though I'm no Doctor, is there another bone in the hand that can break from swinging a bat?
Romo IS the Closer... Unless He's Not
Bochy made it clear that Romo will be the closer in name and function during the 2013 season, this is his position as he earned it with his performance down the stretch and in the playoffs. There will be no closer by committee, which his new contract paid him like.
That said, the Giants will handle him with care because he has had physical issues previously in his career, plus the extra throwing he did in the playoffs. On top of that, he's going to throw in the WBC as well, away from the Giants coaches and thus could be handled in a way the Giants would not appreciate. So if you have an extra spot on your fantasy pitching staff in 2013, you might want to grab Affeldt or Casilla to get the occasional extra save, particularly if you have Romo on your team.
Bumgarner Figures It Out
Madison had late season struggles (much like Lincecum) but whereas Tim's problem was with his conditioning (I really hope he fixed that this off-season, why didn't the writers ask him that?), Bumgarner said his was due to fatigue that was due to poor mechanics. He worked on his mechanics over the winter and feels that he did all he could to fix things.
He talked about how much he learned about his mechanics over the past few years early last season. He noted that he just threw when he first became a pro, and had very little idea on why and when he was successful. He has learned since turning pro when he is throwing right and when he is not, and this interview suggests that he knows himself very well now, and thus he pronounced himself fixed for 2013. We will see.
Zito Wants to End his Career With Giants
Wow, given how poorly he's been treated here by fans, that's a shocker. But he does love working in the Bay Area, it seems, and I think he recently moved up here, with his new wife, if I recall right. If he gives us a great deal to make up for his current contract, I would be open to it (say $3-5M per season for 5 years?). Otherwise, I think our young guys coming up should be ready enough by 2015 to take over for Zito in the rotation, unless he wants to turn to relieving in the bullpen.
Theriot Turns the Turnstile
Looks like he won't be back. He wants more playing time than he can expect to get here in SF. The Giants spoke to him at the Winter Meeting and never heard back from him. Honestly, I would not mind this as it leaves an opening for Nick Noonan to maybe make the team sometime during the season and probably places an Asian on the team again (Japan League vet Tanaka is in camp battling for MI position; he said he wants to start eventually, but did he know about Scutaro's contract?). Probably Arias and Tanaka are the two MI to begin the season, but Scutaro is old and Holliday is still playing for the Cards, so you never know what happens to the 2B.
Surkamp on Track
LHP Eric Surkamp had TJS last July and hopes to return this July. He's throwing at 90 feet, so I assume that is good since the mound is 60 feet 6 inches from home plate (did you know that the reason for this distance is that in the original schematics, 0 inches was written in, but I guess he curled it and the guy laying out the field read it as 6 inches. FACT!).
TJS today is so routine and many players return to not only throw as well as before, but some could throw even harder. But it is no sure thing so I'll keep my fingers crossed for Eric, he seems like a nice guy from the interviews I've read. Some are OK after a year, but some require two years to fully recover. Since he did not rely on his velocity before, I would guess that he can return sooner than later in terms of matching prior performance.
Brett's Earned It
Sabean on right-hander Brett Bochy, who will be in camp: “He’s earned it. He had a real nice season going last year until fatigue set in. We’ll have to watch him in the beginning. All these relievers, whether a prospect or somebody trying to make the team, half the bullpen is pitching in the WBC so they’re going to get a chance to be out there.” Nice of Sabes to praise his buddy Bruce's little boy! :^)
Spring Training Next Week
Go Giants!!! Defend your World Championship!!!
Showing posts with label Ryan Theriot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Theriot. Show all posts
Friday, February 08, 2013
Thursday, December 06, 2012
Risk Mitigation: Giants Style
There is a good quote of Bobby Evans by Chris Haft on mlb.com/sfgiants.com:
That has been one of the things I've been harping on the past few years about Sabean and the Giants, about how they practice risk mitigation. In Sabean's interviews, you would hear the terms "flexibility" or "versatility" but Evans' quote comes closest to what I've been saying, about finding "ways to protect your team over a long season." That is risk mitigation.
The signings of Uribe and DeRosa and, heck, back to the trade for Winn, represents the first strong signs of doing that, during that period. After all the issues with Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, the Giants have focused more of their free agent signings on the lower tiers on risk mitigation, that is, the flexibility to not have a season go to pot from a starter going down.
Of course, there is really nothing you can do if one of your star hitters like Posey or Sandoval, go down. But for the rest of the team, if you have a good infield utility player and one good outfield utility player, your team can stay afloat in the pennant race should somebody either go down or just is not performing on the field, like most teams run into with prospects.
DeRosa was the ultimate version of that, but I'll start with Winn first since he was one of those first flexible players. He was and is a tweener, not really good enough defensively in CF but not really good enough offensively on the corners, but basically an average player no matter which OF position you put him at. So, depending on who is hitting and who is not hitting or not available, Winn was able to play all three OF positions adequately to good, as well as hit adequately. Roberts was a little like that too, only he was never healthy long enough to do that job for us.
DeRosa was never healthy enough, but he was the ultimate in utility when we got him. He was really a platoon hitter, killed LHP, but did OK vs. RHP, good enough to play almost regularly, nearly 150 games per season. However, he was great defensively at many positions, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and could play SS in a pinch (started out as a pro there) and could play 1B probably OK as well. He would have been great for us if he had only gone to the expert to get his wrist fixed instead of being lazy and going to the local doctor, who screwed it up.
Last season, Theriot and Arias helped keep things on an even keel while Franchez was out and Sandoval was DLed, while Blanco did likewise in the OF, doing OK enough while starting. On the previous World Champion team, Uribe and Torres did it for the Giants, even Renteria too, though he was originally hired to be the starting SS but was just injured all the time.
They did the same in the bullpen too. Many Giants fans groaned over the signing of both Lopez and Affedlt to large (for bullpen) contracts prior to the 2012 season. But they proved to be good backup once Wilson came up lame. I didn't see any of these Naysayers apologizing when Affeldt flew through the 2012 playoffs with 10.1 IP, giving only 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 and allowing zero runs. Lopez wasn't used as much, but he was helpful too, 3.0 IP, giving up 0 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4 and allowing no runs too. Given that he only pitched in the two key series against Cincinnati and St. Louis (wasn't used in World Series), where a run could have tipped the series to the other side, that was critical pitching. He helped win two of the games in the Reds series, and three of the games in the St. Louis series.
And both served as closers during the regular season as well. In fact, who didn't serve? Six different players recorded saves in 2012: Casilla (25), Romo (14), Lopez (7), Affeldt (3), even Hensley (3), plus Wilson (1). Pitchers were swapping in and out, pitching setup, pitching closer. Also the middle relievers got to pitch setup as well.
And who is the ace of the rotation? The season started out with Lincecum taking the pole position. Cain got the home opener. Bumgarner ended up opening the second half of the season after the All-Star game. Cain got the first game of the NLDS. Bumgarner got the first game of the NLCS. And Zito got the World Series first start. And while Vogelsong didn't get one of these ace first starts, he pitched like the ace of the playoffs, coming in and shutting down the opposition when the Giants were at the brink of losing. He had only a 1.09 ERA in 4 starts, 24.2 IP, with 16 hits and 10 walks, striking out 21 and allowing only 3 runs.
And don't forget, Vogelsong was the guy who came up in 2011 and not only held the fort in Zito's absence, but proved to be ace-like in performance. They also had Petit in 2012 and Hacker in 2010 and 2011 did well for us in AAA. He just resigned with us, at age 30. The Giants add these guys to hang around in the minors, just in case they were needed.
Blanco, Arias, Loux, Machi, Petit and Vogelsong started the season off in AAA, waiting for the call to the major leagues, insurance players that the Giants stashed in AAA, just in case a starter goes down. That is risk mitigation. And where would we have been if we did not have Theriot, who hit very well after returning from the DL, around .340 OBP, in the two spot, until Scutaro came over, capable of playing 2B and SS, and manning 3B until Sandoval returned, then took over the starting 2B spot and never let go.
Risk mitigation, as the Giants and Sabean has done it, is by having versatile utility players who were comfortable serving many different roles on the team, as the need arose. Need a starting 2B? Bam! Theriot slotted in, and did well there until Scutaro was acquired and held the job. Need a starting 3B? Bam! Arias started there, then Scutaro later. Need a closer? Bam! Casilla, then closer by committee (Romo, Lopez, Affeldt), then Romo in the playoffs. The Giants have been playing the risk mitigation game well over the past four seasons.
2013 Giants Risk Mitigation
Bringing back the whole team, also, the same players look to fill the risk mitigation roles. Blanco looks like the LF right now, but should a Huff-like deal open up in LF just before spring training starts, don't be surprised if the Giants jump on a nice RH bat to platoon with Blanco or even start in LF. And Torres is currently on the market. Francisco Peguero also looks like he could fill the Blanco role in 2013, he plays all three OF positions, looks like he can hit anywhere (like Pablo), has great speed and defense, and even has a RH bat.
The scuttlebutt is that Ryan Theriot is interested in returning and the Giants are interested in him returning as well. Meanwhile, we still have Joaquin Arias sitting around, ready to fill in, and Nick Noonan has been prepared the last few years for such a role, having started at both 2B and SS in his climb up the farm system. He also played some 3B as well and probably could handle 1B in a pinch if necessary.
Of course, the bullpen is pretty set, with Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, Kontos, and Mijares. We have the same closer by committee set up for 2013, as the Giants are said to be looking to manage Romo's arm to survive the season and be ready for the playoffs. The key here was the signing of Affeldt to another contract.
The Giants generally likes to let one position be open for competition, so that 7th spot could be where the compete is in 2013, though rumors has it that they were in on Grilli until he chose to return to the Pirates for two years, since nobody would go three years on him. He has had a Vogelsong-like resurrection, though he was never as buried or unused as Vogie. Still, if they were looking hard at Grilli, they might still pick up someone along the way and make Mijares' position the competition spot. Heath Hembree looks like he will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, and as our future closer du jour, if he should make the team, he could be seeing duty from the middle to set-up to closing, depending on how well he does.
And AAA will be full of potential starter replacements. Hacker has signed to return. In addition, Eric Surkamp should be healthy and starting in AAA. In addition, both Chris Heston and Mike Kickham look like they earned a promotion to AAA with their great pitching in AA in 2012. So there is a whole rotation full of starters who could get the call. And I'm not even sure whether Petit might return, he was good last season too. And don't forget, they could also come up as relievers too.
"The work's never done. There are too many ways to try to find ways to protect your team over a long season." -- Evansogc thoughts
That has been one of the things I've been harping on the past few years about Sabean and the Giants, about how they practice risk mitigation. In Sabean's interviews, you would hear the terms "flexibility" or "versatility" but Evans' quote comes closest to what I've been saying, about finding "ways to protect your team over a long season." That is risk mitigation.
The signings of Uribe and DeRosa and, heck, back to the trade for Winn, represents the first strong signs of doing that, during that period. After all the issues with Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, the Giants have focused more of their free agent signings on the lower tiers on risk mitigation, that is, the flexibility to not have a season go to pot from a starter going down.
Of course, there is really nothing you can do if one of your star hitters like Posey or Sandoval, go down. But for the rest of the team, if you have a good infield utility player and one good outfield utility player, your team can stay afloat in the pennant race should somebody either go down or just is not performing on the field, like most teams run into with prospects.
DeRosa was the ultimate version of that, but I'll start with Winn first since he was one of those first flexible players. He was and is a tweener, not really good enough defensively in CF but not really good enough offensively on the corners, but basically an average player no matter which OF position you put him at. So, depending on who is hitting and who is not hitting or not available, Winn was able to play all three OF positions adequately to good, as well as hit adequately. Roberts was a little like that too, only he was never healthy long enough to do that job for us.
DeRosa was never healthy enough, but he was the ultimate in utility when we got him. He was really a platoon hitter, killed LHP, but did OK vs. RHP, good enough to play almost regularly, nearly 150 games per season. However, he was great defensively at many positions, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and could play SS in a pinch (started out as a pro there) and could play 1B probably OK as well. He would have been great for us if he had only gone to the expert to get his wrist fixed instead of being lazy and going to the local doctor, who screwed it up.
Last season, Theriot and Arias helped keep things on an even keel while Franchez was out and Sandoval was DLed, while Blanco did likewise in the OF, doing OK enough while starting. On the previous World Champion team, Uribe and Torres did it for the Giants, even Renteria too, though he was originally hired to be the starting SS but was just injured all the time.
They did the same in the bullpen too. Many Giants fans groaned over the signing of both Lopez and Affedlt to large (for bullpen) contracts prior to the 2012 season. But they proved to be good backup once Wilson came up lame. I didn't see any of these Naysayers apologizing when Affeldt flew through the 2012 playoffs with 10.1 IP, giving only 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 and allowing zero runs. Lopez wasn't used as much, but he was helpful too, 3.0 IP, giving up 0 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4 and allowing no runs too. Given that he only pitched in the two key series against Cincinnati and St. Louis (wasn't used in World Series), where a run could have tipped the series to the other side, that was critical pitching. He helped win two of the games in the Reds series, and three of the games in the St. Louis series.
And both served as closers during the regular season as well. In fact, who didn't serve? Six different players recorded saves in 2012: Casilla (25), Romo (14), Lopez (7), Affeldt (3), even Hensley (3), plus Wilson (1). Pitchers were swapping in and out, pitching setup, pitching closer. Also the middle relievers got to pitch setup as well.
And who is the ace of the rotation? The season started out with Lincecum taking the pole position. Cain got the home opener. Bumgarner ended up opening the second half of the season after the All-Star game. Cain got the first game of the NLDS. Bumgarner got the first game of the NLCS. And Zito got the World Series first start. And while Vogelsong didn't get one of these ace first starts, he pitched like the ace of the playoffs, coming in and shutting down the opposition when the Giants were at the brink of losing. He had only a 1.09 ERA in 4 starts, 24.2 IP, with 16 hits and 10 walks, striking out 21 and allowing only 3 runs.
And don't forget, Vogelsong was the guy who came up in 2011 and not only held the fort in Zito's absence, but proved to be ace-like in performance. They also had Petit in 2012 and Hacker in 2010 and 2011 did well for us in AAA. He just resigned with us, at age 30. The Giants add these guys to hang around in the minors, just in case they were needed.
Blanco, Arias, Loux, Machi, Petit and Vogelsong started the season off in AAA, waiting for the call to the major leagues, insurance players that the Giants stashed in AAA, just in case a starter goes down. That is risk mitigation. And where would we have been if we did not have Theriot, who hit very well after returning from the DL, around .340 OBP, in the two spot, until Scutaro came over, capable of playing 2B and SS, and manning 3B until Sandoval returned, then took over the starting 2B spot and never let go.
Risk mitigation, as the Giants and Sabean has done it, is by having versatile utility players who were comfortable serving many different roles on the team, as the need arose. Need a starting 2B? Bam! Theriot slotted in, and did well there until Scutaro was acquired and held the job. Need a starting 3B? Bam! Arias started there, then Scutaro later. Need a closer? Bam! Casilla, then closer by committee (Romo, Lopez, Affeldt), then Romo in the playoffs. The Giants have been playing the risk mitigation game well over the past four seasons.
2013 Giants Risk Mitigation
Bringing back the whole team, also, the same players look to fill the risk mitigation roles. Blanco looks like the LF right now, but should a Huff-like deal open up in LF just before spring training starts, don't be surprised if the Giants jump on a nice RH bat to platoon with Blanco or even start in LF. And Torres is currently on the market. Francisco Peguero also looks like he could fill the Blanco role in 2013, he plays all three OF positions, looks like he can hit anywhere (like Pablo), has great speed and defense, and even has a RH bat.
The scuttlebutt is that Ryan Theriot is interested in returning and the Giants are interested in him returning as well. Meanwhile, we still have Joaquin Arias sitting around, ready to fill in, and Nick Noonan has been prepared the last few years for such a role, having started at both 2B and SS in his climb up the farm system. He also played some 3B as well and probably could handle 1B in a pinch if necessary.
Of course, the bullpen is pretty set, with Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, Kontos, and Mijares. We have the same closer by committee set up for 2013, as the Giants are said to be looking to manage Romo's arm to survive the season and be ready for the playoffs. The key here was the signing of Affeldt to another contract.
The Giants generally likes to let one position be open for competition, so that 7th spot could be where the compete is in 2013, though rumors has it that they were in on Grilli until he chose to return to the Pirates for two years, since nobody would go three years on him. He has had a Vogelsong-like resurrection, though he was never as buried or unused as Vogie. Still, if they were looking hard at Grilli, they might still pick up someone along the way and make Mijares' position the competition spot. Heath Hembree looks like he will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, and as our future closer du jour, if he should make the team, he could be seeing duty from the middle to set-up to closing, depending on how well he does.
And AAA will be full of potential starter replacements. Hacker has signed to return. In addition, Eric Surkamp should be healthy and starting in AAA. In addition, both Chris Heston and Mike Kickham look like they earned a promotion to AAA with their great pitching in AA in 2012. So there is a whole rotation full of starters who could get the call. And I'm not even sure whether Petit might return, he was good last season too. And don't forget, they could also come up as relievers too.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Filling out the Roster: Giants Sign Henley and The Riot
The Giants in the past two days have signed two more players, Clay Hensley and Ryan "The Riot" Theriot, both to non-guaranteed major league contracts (Baggs: both will go on the 40-man once they pass their physicals, says that there are two openings; obviously, non-guaranteed means they can be DFAed for much less than their contracts; Schulman added that Fontenot's contract is also non-guaranteed, meaning if he's odd man out, he can be let go too without paying the full contract).
So these are basically "pay to play" contracts, if they can perform well enough in spring training to win a job, they get paid for 2012. And Clay basically needs to show Bochy that he's still close to the same guy who did so well for him in SD and not the guy who did not do well in Florida last season.
Clay Hensley (Hank) is a former Giants farm hand who was traded to the Padres for Matt Herges, probably one of the few trades that has ended up with the Giants net losing, though Herges was very helpful in his time with the Giants when they needed relief help, so there is that. Bochy loved using him in SD too, he did very well for them.
The right-hander reliever will apparently battle for the final spot in the bullpen that was opened by the trade of Ramirez (and Torres) for Angel Pagan. He will get $750K for 2012 if he makes the team, plus $300K in incentives and awards (mostly probably based on games pitched in). It was noted that Mota still hasn't officially signed "pending contract language", so perhaps that is an additional factor for doing this signing, not just the opening of Ramirez. Mota, once signed, will probably be on a minor league contract so that he won't take up a spot on the 40 man yet and it does still seems like it is a fait accompli and not something that may or may not happen.
Ryan Theriot (Baggs, Hank) won a World Series ring with the Cards last season, which makes up for the one he could have gotten had he been traded to the Giants instead of Mike Fontenot in 2010. Forgot what got in the way of that one, other than I think the Cubs got more from the D-gers for Theriot than the Giants gave up to get Fontenot, DeWitt is not someone the Giants could have matched, I don't think.
A right-handed hitter who hits better against LHP, but doesn't mash them, makes him a perfect platoon partner with Fontenot, who is an old buddy of his from their Chicago Cubs days, though that is a little surprising as they were essentially competing for the same starting role. But their ties were forged, from what I understand, in college for LSU so those friendship ties have lasted a long time. If he makes the team, he gets $1.25M with $750K in potential bonuses, probably mostly based on playing time in terms of PA.
Schulman:
Giants Thoughts
It is like I thought, Crawford is the incumbent starting shortstop, with Theriot and Fontenot as the probable backups, and not as many feared, that Theriot is here to take the job away. Barring a huge meltdown on Crawford's part, as long as he's flashing the leather and still taking walks while avoiding strikeouts, the Giants should be relatively patient with him and make him the starter. He would have to cede the job for Theriot/Fontenot to take over. More on that later.
Barring some big injury or huge decrease in ability to hit or field, I think they will beat out Burriss for the two MI spots, as he has not really shown much in recent trials in the majors, and if he does lose, we would have to DFA him. But I would bet we would likely retain him, much like Ishikawa, because he would probably be cut at the end of spring training, at which point other teams would have their 25-man pretty much set and I doubt any team would risk losing that 25th man in order to take a flier on Burriss. I assume the Giants will try to retain him after he passes through waivers, but the Nats might want to sign him since he's a local guy, they might like the history of that. Not sure on the rules, but I think that is the right sequence of potential events. I have to think if the Nats come calling, he will give them a shot and take a fresh start with them.
But should he falter, I can see Bochy basically moving to a platoon situation by mid-to-late May. Plus, in any case, in key batting situations late in the game, Bochy could substitute for Crawford with Theriot if a LHP is inserted to face Crawford. I think the Giants will test Crawford periodically still against LHP, depending on the situation, partly because his defense is THAT good, partly because Theriot is THAT bad defensively, partly because Theriot does have problems with certain LHP.
Another reason for keeping Theriot and Fontenot is that they make good platoon buddies, Theriot hits well against LHP, Fontenot hits well against RHP, plus Fontenot was very good defensively at SS last season. And that works for either SS, should Crawford flame out for any reason, or 2B, should any body part of Freddy Sanchez flame out for any reason.
Lastly, another good reason to keep Theriot is that Burriss has not shown much ability in the majors in recent years. No walks, no power, his only ability is to avoid the strikeout and that does give him a better batting average, but not enough to make up for few walks and few extra-base hits. He apparently is the hitter who drove Carney Lansford away, as he reportedly have strong arms, strong forearms, that with improve batting technique, he could start driving balls with authority. However, he has refused to change, preferring to stick with the "slap the pitch" technique that he was taught to take advantage of his speed.
Burriss is basically around the same stage as Andres Torres was a few years back. Andres stubbornly stuck to the slap until he realized that unless he changed, he'll never stick in the majors. That's when he sought out someone to teach him to swing the bat like Pujols. Basically, he was taught the principles that Ted Williams taught in his book, the Science of Hitting, and you saw what happened in 2009 and 2010 with his change.
Too bad Torres never tried to inspire Burriss to try his way, I think the transformation could be just a stark, and that Burriss could be a starter if he ever learned to hit properly and truly take advantage of his speed, because he has show a good eye all his career, it is just his lack of power that kills his chances of making the majors regularly. As he probably could bat near .300 each year, and with even a modicum of power, would make a good starting option at 2B.
That changes the dynamics of the bench as well. One spot is taken by the reserve catcher, Stewart or Hanchez. Two spots are probably TheRiot and Fontenot. Schierholtz has the fourth spot, assuming Belt wins the position in spring training. That would mean that Brett Pill and Burriss would be battling for the last spot on the roster. And given that Theriot provides some speed, Pill most probably gets that last spot as the only power off the bench (though Schierholtz provides some as well).
Looking at Hensley's stats, I realize that I had a more positive view of his career than warranted. He did have a nice season starting for the 'Dres in 2006, but he didn't do well at all in 2007, moved to the bullpen in 2008, where he didn't do well either, but that might be because he had some sort of injury (he had injury reports for a strained right shoulder for 68 games in 2009, strained left neck muscle for 20 games in 2010), didn't pitch at all in the majors in 2009, but then did great for Florida in 2010 (perhaps he didn't make the mental transition, Todd Worrell when he was with the Giants said that he didn't start doing well as a reliever until he gave up thoughts of being a starter and accepted being a reliever), before having a bad year in 2011.
However, in 2011, his bad season was due solely to his poor stats as a starter, as the Marlins pushed him back into the rotation. He had a 6.21 ERA as a starter, but a pretty good 3.51 ERA as a reliever, with 20 K's in 25.2 IP (7.0 K/9) and K/BB of 1.67, which is not great, just OK, and he held hitters down to a .226/.331/.333/.645 batting line as a reliever. Schulman also noted some arm problems, so that contributed to his down season most probably, as well. And he had a great 2.16 ERA in 2010 in 68 games, finishing 23 games and saving 7 games. He kept his walks down and had a great strikeout rate, resulting in a great 2.66 K/BB (good closers have K/BB > 2.4 according to Shandler).
And with a career .279 BABIP and with one season out of 6 (but not all full seasons) of BABIP under .300, that suggest that he is possibly capable of keeping his BABIP down, which mitigates the issue about too many walks and resulting low K/BB. Bringing up his BABIP to .300 results in 0.56 more H/9, which if you then drop his career BB/9 to 3.44 for a 1.85 K/BB, which is close to being the good 2.0 we want to see from pitchers and much better than the 1.57 mark he has for his career. And a walk is worth less than the extra hits that would have been given up, which would edge that ratio up even higher.
So it looks like he has accepted the reliever role, but because the Marlins did not use him properly in 2011, many teams passed on checking him out, so the Giants could pick him up on the cheap. He is also in his second year of arbitration, had the Marlins kept him, so that is another reason for them to drop him. Should the Giants keep him past this season, he would be arbitration eligible for 2013 before becoming a free agent for the 2014 season. He will be 32 for the 2012 season and won't reach free agency until he is 34, assuming he can hold a job for the next two seasons (which should not be hard if he pitches like he did as a reliever in 2010 and 2011).
I like the move. As nicely as Mota has performed for us, he wasn't that good when he pitched for us plus he's very old now, so Hensley could end up replacing Ramirez, while a prospect replaces Mota, taking the long spot. Heath Hembree was great last season in AA, so he potentially could win a spot in the bullpen. In addition, Dan Otero has done very well in the minors with one projection saying he could deliver an ERA below 3 in 2012, which would be great.
So most likely Hensley, Mota, Hembree, and Otero are battling for two spots in the rotation, barring any injury to Romo. Dan Runzler is probably in the mix for one of the two open spots as well, else I would guess that he would go back to AAA and start in order to be an option for the Giants should they need to replace any starter, due to the sparcity of MLB capable starting pitching in AAA.
Both moves were good moves, filling areas of potential weakness for the Giants in terms of depth in 2012, with two major league vets who should win a job in spring training by doing as well as they had done in prior seasons. They probably cost two minor leaguers a chance at the majors, Burriss most probably, but maybe Pill instead, and one of the right-handers I listed above as battling for a job. It was much more likely the Giants would have filled Ramirez's position internally had they not signed Hensley. Good risk mitigation moves on the part of Sabean, on the cheap too, and it keeps the Giants under the $130M cap figure. I don't envision any other move than a starting pitcher getting a minor league invite to battle for a spot.
I'm not sure if he is still available, but the D-backs non-tendered Micah Owings and he appears to be a free agent. And while he has been a so-so pitcher, he has been a pretty good hitter. At 29 YO for the 2012 season, he might be ready to accept a reliever role, heck, he might have already accepted it, as he was mostly a reliever last season and did well in that role.
Furthermore, he has also been OK as a reliever, 4.40 ERA in two home hitter's parks in AZ and Cincy, so he's probably close to 4 overall otherwise. And he was good relieving last season. Maybe bring him in as competition with Mota for the long-relief spot, and if he wins it, he also becomes our #1 option in case we need a MLB arm for the rotation, plus he would become a great pinch-hitter option for us off the bench, much like Brooks Kieschnick (Giants prospect Roger Kieschnick's uncle). That is a much better option than having Mota. Who knows, maybe he can be competition for the #5 starting spot with Zito as well.
The D-backs apparently non-tendered him in order to not pay him $1M in arbitration. How cheap of the team, particularly since he did well for them last season. Much unlike the Arizona of the past: when a player lost to the team in arbitration, they ripped up the contract and signed him to more money. The non-tender just to save maybe $250-500K won't sit well with him nor any buddies he may have on the team, it is like a slap in the face given what he did for them in helping them win the pennant last season. Even any vets have to be perturbed by this strange move. Hopefully it will place a seed of dissension and unrest in their clubhouse and lead to lesser performances in 2012 for them under Gibson.
So these are basically "pay to play" contracts, if they can perform well enough in spring training to win a job, they get paid for 2012. And Clay basically needs to show Bochy that he's still close to the same guy who did so well for him in SD and not the guy who did not do well in Florida last season.
Clay Hensley (Hank) is a former Giants farm hand who was traded to the Padres for Matt Herges, probably one of the few trades that has ended up with the Giants net losing, though Herges was very helpful in his time with the Giants when they needed relief help, so there is that. Bochy loved using him in SD too, he did very well for them.
The right-hander reliever will apparently battle for the final spot in the bullpen that was opened by the trade of Ramirez (and Torres) for Angel Pagan. He will get $750K for 2012 if he makes the team, plus $300K in incentives and awards (mostly probably based on games pitched in). It was noted that Mota still hasn't officially signed "pending contract language", so perhaps that is an additional factor for doing this signing, not just the opening of Ramirez. Mota, once signed, will probably be on a minor league contract so that he won't take up a spot on the 40 man yet and it does still seems like it is a fait accompli and not something that may or may not happen.
Ryan Theriot (Baggs, Hank) won a World Series ring with the Cards last season, which makes up for the one he could have gotten had he been traded to the Giants instead of Mike Fontenot in 2010. Forgot what got in the way of that one, other than I think the Cubs got more from the D-gers for Theriot than the Giants gave up to get Fontenot, DeWitt is not someone the Giants could have matched, I don't think.
A right-handed hitter who hits better against LHP, but doesn't mash them, makes him a perfect platoon partner with Fontenot, who is an old buddy of his from their Chicago Cubs days, though that is a little surprising as they were essentially competing for the same starting role. But their ties were forged, from what I understand, in college for LSU so those friendship ties have lasted a long time. If he makes the team, he gets $1.25M with $750K in potential bonuses, probably mostly based on playing time in terms of PA.
Schulman:
Theriot’s deal is pending a physical and not guaranteed, which means the Giants could cut Theriot by March 18 and pay him $208,333, or $312,500 between March 18 and the start of the season.For those worrying (crying) more Schulman about The Riot deal:
So here’s the upshot, as it was explained to me. Crawford, entering his second year in the bigs, is going into camp as the starting shortstop, as the Giants said he would. Fontenot, Theriot and Emmanuel Burriss provide the depth in the middle infield and will compete in spring training for reserve roles. Thus, Fontenot and Theriot, old friends from their LSU days and former keystone mates with the Cubs, likely will compete for the same job.Schulman has been hot lately with his inside info lately, Baggerly had been better in seasons' past, but I would rate them about equal this off-season, at worse.
Giants Thoughts
It is like I thought, Crawford is the incumbent starting shortstop, with Theriot and Fontenot as the probable backups, and not as many feared, that Theriot is here to take the job away. Barring a huge meltdown on Crawford's part, as long as he's flashing the leather and still taking walks while avoiding strikeouts, the Giants should be relatively patient with him and make him the starter. He would have to cede the job for Theriot/Fontenot to take over. More on that later.
Barring some big injury or huge decrease in ability to hit or field, I think they will beat out Burriss for the two MI spots, as he has not really shown much in recent trials in the majors, and if he does lose, we would have to DFA him. But I would bet we would likely retain him, much like Ishikawa, because he would probably be cut at the end of spring training, at which point other teams would have their 25-man pretty much set and I doubt any team would risk losing that 25th man in order to take a flier on Burriss. I assume the Giants will try to retain him after he passes through waivers, but the Nats might want to sign him since he's a local guy, they might like the history of that. Not sure on the rules, but I think that is the right sequence of potential events. I have to think if the Nats come calling, he will give them a shot and take a fresh start with them.
Schulman: Theriot (.271/.321/.342 with St. Louis last year) is not going to set the world on fire with his bat, but that’s not why the Giants wanted him. They want to ensure they have a proper alternative to Crawford against left-handed pitching. And, I’m sure, have another shortstop option, period, if Crawford has a really bad spring and the brass feels he should go to Triple-A.That is one of the things I like about how Sabean has been constructing the roster in the past few years, how he practices risk mitigation in his roster construction. He generally tries to have a viable backup should plans do not work out the way that they envisioned (and nobody's plans go perfectly). Unless Brandon Crawford totally sucks in spring training (much like Brian Wilson did his first spring training when he had the job in his pocket to lose and he just didn't do well), he most likely will be the full-time starter. Bochy will give him a chance to show what he can do against both LHP and RHP.
But should he falter, I can see Bochy basically moving to a platoon situation by mid-to-late May. Plus, in any case, in key batting situations late in the game, Bochy could substitute for Crawford with Theriot if a LHP is inserted to face Crawford. I think the Giants will test Crawford periodically still against LHP, depending on the situation, partly because his defense is THAT good, partly because Theriot is THAT bad defensively, partly because Theriot does have problems with certain LHP.
Another reason for keeping Theriot and Fontenot is that they make good platoon buddies, Theriot hits well against LHP, Fontenot hits well against RHP, plus Fontenot was very good defensively at SS last season. And that works for either SS, should Crawford flame out for any reason, or 2B, should any body part of Freddy Sanchez flame out for any reason.
Lastly, another good reason to keep Theriot is that Burriss has not shown much ability in the majors in recent years. No walks, no power, his only ability is to avoid the strikeout and that does give him a better batting average, but not enough to make up for few walks and few extra-base hits. He apparently is the hitter who drove Carney Lansford away, as he reportedly have strong arms, strong forearms, that with improve batting technique, he could start driving balls with authority. However, he has refused to change, preferring to stick with the "slap the pitch" technique that he was taught to take advantage of his speed.
Burriss is basically around the same stage as Andres Torres was a few years back. Andres stubbornly stuck to the slap until he realized that unless he changed, he'll never stick in the majors. That's when he sought out someone to teach him to swing the bat like Pujols. Basically, he was taught the principles that Ted Williams taught in his book, the Science of Hitting, and you saw what happened in 2009 and 2010 with his change.
Too bad Torres never tried to inspire Burriss to try his way, I think the transformation could be just a stark, and that Burriss could be a starter if he ever learned to hit properly and truly take advantage of his speed, because he has show a good eye all his career, it is just his lack of power that kills his chances of making the majors regularly. As he probably could bat near .300 each year, and with even a modicum of power, would make a good starting option at 2B.
That changes the dynamics of the bench as well. One spot is taken by the reserve catcher, Stewart or Hanchez. Two spots are probably TheRiot and Fontenot. Schierholtz has the fourth spot, assuming Belt wins the position in spring training. That would mean that Brett Pill and Burriss would be battling for the last spot on the roster. And given that Theriot provides some speed, Pill most probably gets that last spot as the only power off the bench (though Schierholtz provides some as well).
Looking at Hensley's stats, I realize that I had a more positive view of his career than warranted. He did have a nice season starting for the 'Dres in 2006, but he didn't do well at all in 2007, moved to the bullpen in 2008, where he didn't do well either, but that might be because he had some sort of injury (he had injury reports for a strained right shoulder for 68 games in 2009, strained left neck muscle for 20 games in 2010), didn't pitch at all in the majors in 2009, but then did great for Florida in 2010 (perhaps he didn't make the mental transition, Todd Worrell when he was with the Giants said that he didn't start doing well as a reliever until he gave up thoughts of being a starter and accepted being a reliever), before having a bad year in 2011.
However, in 2011, his bad season was due solely to his poor stats as a starter, as the Marlins pushed him back into the rotation. He had a 6.21 ERA as a starter, but a pretty good 3.51 ERA as a reliever, with 20 K's in 25.2 IP (7.0 K/9) and K/BB of 1.67, which is not great, just OK, and he held hitters down to a .226/.331/.333/.645 batting line as a reliever. Schulman also noted some arm problems, so that contributed to his down season most probably, as well. And he had a great 2.16 ERA in 2010 in 68 games, finishing 23 games and saving 7 games. He kept his walks down and had a great strikeout rate, resulting in a great 2.66 K/BB (good closers have K/BB > 2.4 according to Shandler).
And with a career .279 BABIP and with one season out of 6 (but not all full seasons) of BABIP under .300, that suggest that he is possibly capable of keeping his BABIP down, which mitigates the issue about too many walks and resulting low K/BB. Bringing up his BABIP to .300 results in 0.56 more H/9, which if you then drop his career BB/9 to 3.44 for a 1.85 K/BB, which is close to being the good 2.0 we want to see from pitchers and much better than the 1.57 mark he has for his career. And a walk is worth less than the extra hits that would have been given up, which would edge that ratio up even higher.
So it looks like he has accepted the reliever role, but because the Marlins did not use him properly in 2011, many teams passed on checking him out, so the Giants could pick him up on the cheap. He is also in his second year of arbitration, had the Marlins kept him, so that is another reason for them to drop him. Should the Giants keep him past this season, he would be arbitration eligible for 2013 before becoming a free agent for the 2014 season. He will be 32 for the 2012 season and won't reach free agency until he is 34, assuming he can hold a job for the next two seasons (which should not be hard if he pitches like he did as a reliever in 2010 and 2011).
I like the move. As nicely as Mota has performed for us, he wasn't that good when he pitched for us plus he's very old now, so Hensley could end up replacing Ramirez, while a prospect replaces Mota, taking the long spot. Heath Hembree was great last season in AA, so he potentially could win a spot in the bullpen. In addition, Dan Otero has done very well in the minors with one projection saying he could deliver an ERA below 3 in 2012, which would be great.
So most likely Hensley, Mota, Hembree, and Otero are battling for two spots in the rotation, barring any injury to Romo. Dan Runzler is probably in the mix for one of the two open spots as well, else I would guess that he would go back to AAA and start in order to be an option for the Giants should they need to replace any starter, due to the sparcity of MLB capable starting pitching in AAA.
Both moves were good moves, filling areas of potential weakness for the Giants in terms of depth in 2012, with two major league vets who should win a job in spring training by doing as well as they had done in prior seasons. They probably cost two minor leaguers a chance at the majors, Burriss most probably, but maybe Pill instead, and one of the right-handers I listed above as battling for a job. It was much more likely the Giants would have filled Ramirez's position internally had they not signed Hensley. Good risk mitigation moves on the part of Sabean, on the cheap too, and it keeps the Giants under the $130M cap figure. I don't envision any other move than a starting pitcher getting a minor league invite to battle for a spot.
I'm not sure if he is still available, but the D-backs non-tendered Micah Owings and he appears to be a free agent. And while he has been a so-so pitcher, he has been a pretty good hitter. At 29 YO for the 2012 season, he might be ready to accept a reliever role, heck, he might have already accepted it, as he was mostly a reliever last season and did well in that role.
Furthermore, he has also been OK as a reliever, 4.40 ERA in two home hitter's parks in AZ and Cincy, so he's probably close to 4 overall otherwise. And he was good relieving last season. Maybe bring him in as competition with Mota for the long-relief spot, and if he wins it, he also becomes our #1 option in case we need a MLB arm for the rotation, plus he would become a great pinch-hitter option for us off the bench, much like Brooks Kieschnick (Giants prospect Roger Kieschnick's uncle). That is a much better option than having Mota. Who knows, maybe he can be competition for the #5 starting spot with Zito as well.
The D-backs apparently non-tendered him in order to not pay him $1M in arbitration. How cheap of the team, particularly since he did well for them last season. Much unlike the Arizona of the past: when a player lost to the team in arbitration, they ripped up the contract and signed him to more money. The non-tender just to save maybe $250-500K won't sit well with him nor any buddies he may have on the team, it is like a slap in the face given what he did for them in helping them win the pennant last season. Even any vets have to be perturbed by this strange move. Hopefully it will place a seed of dissension and unrest in their clubhouse and lead to lesser performances in 2012 for them under Gibson.
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