Playoff PQS: Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks Path to World Series

After Merrill Kelly's great start and reading about his long and winding road from the U.S. to Korea and back to the U.S., I thought I would investigate the two teams battling it out for the World Series championship and see how their starting pitching's PQS results have contributed to their reaching the World Series.

As I've shown in prior posts about the playoffs, having pitchers who threw DOM PQS starts was a significant success factor in winning games and moving to the next series.  Since all that analysis was done with the original PQS, I'm going to continue to use that methodology here.  If I can ever figure out how to automate pulling all the playoff starts and automate the calculations of PQS, I will investigate creating my own PQS, and building research on that.

Baseball Prospectus Secret Sauce: Their Rationale for Ending It Was Incorrect

[NOTE: wrote most of this up before, just getting around to posting now]

Baseball Prospectus did a study for their great book, "Baseball Between the Numbers", of how teams historically, during the divisional baseball era, got deep into the playoffs, answering the question Billy Beane had, of why his sh!t didn't work in the playoffs.

They found, on an overall basis, that offensive stats was random and all over the place, meaning that it is defensively how teams got deep into the playoffs, that is, pitching and fielding.  They narrowed down the variables to three key metrics:  K/9 for the pitching staff, WRXL for their closer, and their Fielding Defense metric, FRAA.  The only offensive metric that seemed tied to going deep was stolen base attempts, which they attributed to the link of team speed to stolen base attempts.

For a few years, BP published analysis based on their "secret sauce".  But after a number of failures, they decided to end the analysis, making the assumption that the playoffs had changed in some way to make it fail as a strategy.

Your 2014 Giants: World Series Game 7: For All The Marbles

Jake Peavy...  nuff said...

ogc thoughts

Ugh, exactly what I was afraid of, Peavy implosion. Any interest I had in re-signing Peavy is pretty much gone.  Once I found out that Peavy had his hand injury, I was hoping that Bochy would be shelved and that Petit would start instead.

I know Petit didn't do well, but I think he does better coming into an inning clean, he does not really have a lot of experience coming in with runners on and the need to stifle a rally.  He could have been ampped up and that could have accounted for this result (not that he's world beating all the time, but he didn't sound like his normal self today).  I would have preferred Lopez coming in at that point, he was warming up anyway and used to such pressures.

I think we could have won this game had Peavy been a good teammate and took one for the team and gave up his start so that Petit could start.  Even better, I wish Bochy would have done what he had done previously and just sat Peavy down for the good of the team, and started Petit instead.   I don't think we lose 10-0 with Petit starting, thought probably still lose, but you don't know how the offense was affected being down 7-0 like that so early.

And there was not really anything positive in this massacre shutout.  All the relievers gave up at least a run, this was almost as bad as the Royals Game 4, except for Vogelsong, who actually contributed a shutout inning, Petit was finally hit against and Strickland gave up another homer.  Hopefully Strickland's confidence didn't take too big a hit with this post-season, I still think he can do amazing things for us in the future, but this was a pretty big bump in the road for him.

The offense was shutdown, but, again, Ventura survived his wildness and the BABIP gods looked down on him nicely.  He walked 5 and only struck out 4 in his 7 innings, so the Giants made a lot of contact, but once again they weren't falling in.

Game 7

This is why I advocate having multiple aces as an optimal way to advance in the playoffs.  I thought Peavy could be that guy, but while he's that in the regular season, he's never been in the playoffs and still hasn't. Had Cain been his normal self, we would have him in Game 2 and 6, and instead of two losses, at least one would have been a win and we would be champions right now.  Or had Lincecum decided that a $35M contract was reason enough for him to reconcile with his father and get his mechanics back to where it was when he was winning Cy Youngs, I could not believe the news when this was reported.   We needed another pitcher to step up with Bumgarner and so far, in the World Series, nobody has.

So it's up to Hudson to step up where nobody else had.  He has actually pitched well this post-season, the second best to Bumgarner.  He had DOM starts in the NLDS and NLCS, and probably could have had one in the first World Series game except that he was ampped up in the early innings but then settled down for an OK 3 PQS start, but unfortunately, that was not enough to beat the Royals.   If I had to bet, I would bet that he would deliver.

But as the Philliers learned in 2011, just because you have a DOM start does not mean that you will win.

Luckily (and Eric Byrnes said on the radio that he felt good about game 7, but not game 6), Guthrie is the opposing pitcher, and while he's been good at delivering DOM starts in the regular season, he has had two straight 2 PQS starts, and in both cases, he hardly struck out anyone.  So I don't think he's likely to deliver a DOM start, though perhaps nerves got to him in his first World Series start and he'll deliver.  In any case, he's also been able to limit the damage so far in the playoffs, so even if he don't deliver a DOM, if he can pitch like he has and just get to HDH, that could be good enough for them to win.

This is for all the marbles, and things are too much in the air to make a good guess at the results.  Both starting pitchers could do well, or maybe not.  Both bullpens have plenty of rest.  Both lineups are dangerous.  We just need the men in orange and black to perform and deliver.

Who will step forward for the Giants?  Perhaps Posey can step up?  Perhaps another Giants hitter can take over?

Ideally, Hudson will deliver a great DOM start, much like he did early in the season and early in the playoffs, and then I'll take my chances.

But if we are to win, we'll need someone to deliver a special moment of some sort, whether it be like Renteria's homerun or Sandoval's three homer game, or Ishikawa's three-run walk-off homer, some sort of lifting of his teammates to the finish line, to the World Championship.  Or perhaps a Hudson special delivery.

That's what I'm hoping for.

Go Giants!   Get us our third trophy in five years!  #ThreeIsAGoodNumber

Your 2014 Giants: World Series Game 6: Wild Wild West Shoot-Out

Madison Bumgarner started game 5:  Nuff Said!

Your 2014 Giants: World Series Game 5: MadBum > Shields

Vogelsong couldn't get it going, but neither could any of the Royals relievers.  Then Petit shut them down, and that was the game.  Nobody lost their cool (on the Giants, I'm sure all the fans did), and basically almost every hitter contributed something at some point in the game, or seemingly so.  Apparently Sandoval was sick with something and still delivered.  Jon Miller noted that the Giants scored more runs with two outs than any other team in the majors, and they delivered again in the playoffs.

I was wondering why Yost didn't go to Herrera in the 6th, but forgot that he had already pitched almost 60 pitches the past two games (though off day in between), so perhaps that was the reason.  Whatever the reason, Yost had to go to a bunch of middle relievers, and if Giants fans don't trust Machi or Strickland much (though Hunter had a nice 9th inning), I don't think KC fans trust Frasor, Duffy, Finnegan, Collins much either.  Shankbone made the great point on Twitter about Yost leaving in his lefties (Duffy, Finnegan, Collins) to get knocked around like that, couldn't have helped their confidence going forward, something to watch for going forward.

With such a huge lead, Bochy brought in Affeldt in the 7th and Romo in the 8th, and some twitters asked why he would do that.  My best guess is that being down 1-2, he really needed to make sure that the Royals don't feel like they could come back in this game, especially with Affeldt with the lead at 7-4, a couple of baserunners and the tying run comes to bat.  Romo is the bigger question mark, but there's still 6 more outs, and if they should get 3 runs, then they are only down 4 runs in the 9th.

Bochy went for the kill and I'm OK with that.  It's the World Series, got to win the game, especially down 1-2.  Then he went to Stickland in the 9th and he got the final 3 outs, and by then, even if they get 3 runs off him, it would still be a 4 run lead and you bring in your closer (but ideally not).

This is fine with me (I would note that I would have taken out Vogelsong sooner) because we got Bumgarner pitching and he's been lasting into the 7th or 8th inning in each start, and so we maybe only need Casilla to close out the game.  In addition, there is an off day before game 6, giving our bullpen some rest.  At worse, Lincecum can also be used to bridge from the starter to relievers, so he could fill in whatever innings between Bumgarner and Casilla, assuming we are leading.

A-List Affeldt 

What a pitcher!  Many questioned the signing of him (and the other key relievers) to $5M contracts, hopefully they understand now.  He's now at 21 straight appearances without a run given up, only two runs away from Mariano Rivera, who holds the record at 23.

Game 5

Bumgarner has been an ace so far this season, 7+ IP in each start this post-season, lots of great starts, he's been stepping up.

Shields in contrast has not been an ace so far this season, struggling the whole time, with no DOM starts at all, he hasn't been even good at all in the post-season.

We better win this game, as we got Peavy and Hudson going for us in KC.  If the Giants can win Game 5, I think we can get one win from Peavy or Hudson, but I don't believe that we can win two with the two in KC.  It would be a gut punch if we lose.  This is must win, back to the wall again, and I wouldn't want anyone else but Bumgarner starting for us.

And in KC, all hands on deck, particularly Petit, Lincecum, and Bumgarner.  I expect to see quick hooks to stop any potential KC scoring opportunities.  I expect Petit and Lincecum to come in early before too much damage could be done, could see Lopez really early to take down a lefty or two, Romo for taking down a righty or three.

Go Giants!  Go Bumgarner!

A Great Giants Dictionary

Pavlovic has a great post on Giants terms, explaining many terms and covering the origins.

That's it!  Read and enjoy!  Nice rundown of memes of this season and season's past that still works.  I'm glad that #FreeBelt was retired.

Go Giants!  #ChampionsBlood #ThreeIsAGoodNumber

Your 2014 Giants: World Series Game 3: Nobody More Ready

That's reassuring words to hear from our starting pitcher, Tim Hudson (tweet from Pavlovic):

What I've hoped and dreamed for my whole career is finally here. There's not going to be anybody on field more ready than I am."

Also, had to share this great picture of Buster, beautiful:

ogc thoughts

Not a lot of positives from the game.  Peavy had a DIS start, just could not throw strikes to save him life, but was able to limit the damage until that fateful inning.  Of course, he got help from Machi and Strickland to burn the rest of the structure.  The hitters was able to get a lot of hits, but never the one to open the game up for us.  Bochy again was sub-optimal in using the pen, taking a close game and blowing it apart with Machi and Strickland.  Even the one positive, Lincecum's outing, turned into a negative when he felt tightness in his back (reports today I see on twitter notes that he's OK and probable for tomorrow, pending MRI results).

But, as I noted in the Cards series, I'm sad we lost game 2, but I didn't think that they would go the whole series without a loss.  Lick our wounds, come back fighting in Game 3.

Pondering Peavy

And I was worried about that because Peavy has not been very dominating in the playoffs.  He can limit the damage for the most part, but then the manager saves him by taking him out early.  Frankly, I would have took out Peavy sooner, after he gave us 5 OK innings.  At that point, he had only given up 2 runs, but had walked two while only striking out one.  That's a 2 PQS, not good, not bad, though close to bad, and much like he had done previously.  Leaving him in dropped his PQS into disaster territory.

So first, I'm wondering, should the series go to 6 games, do we start Peavy?  I think if Petit hasn't pitched much up to that point, we might see him start game 6 over Peavy.  Bochy has skipped a pitcher before during the playoffs, like they did with Bumgarner in 2012, so it is not unprecedented.   And really, I would even go with Lincecum paired with Petit even if Petit had pitched and could only give a couple of innings relief.  Peavy has shown nothing in his playoff career, and now I'm seriously considering changing my mind about re-signing him for 2015, though we still need a starter for 2015 (though that could be Petit instead, with Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, and Lincecum, who hopefully will be better after an off-season getting back his old mechanics by working with his dad).

Sticking With Strickland

It's not called learning pains for nothing.  Some people just have it immediately, like K-Rod did, but for whatever reasons, Strickland is struggling.  I wouldn't mind if Bochy uses him again, but obviously got to chose the spots.

I still believe in his talent.  He has only 12.1 IP in his MLB career, 5.1 IP of which were in the playoffs.  His baptism in fire.  But 9 K's in 7 IP with only 5 hits and zero walks in the regular season, 32.5 IP in AA, with only 25 hits and 4 (!) walks vs. 48 K's for a 12.00 K/BB ratio (remember 2 is good and you want at least 2.4 from your best pitchers;  so yeah, that's elite, that's like Bumgarner's ratio in high school, Madison's best as pro was in Augusta with a 7.81 K/BB).  That's a 12.1 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 for Hunter in AA.

And his blow-up reminds me of another Giant:  Bumgarner.  I'll never forget about him flinging the ball out of the stadium in AAA early in the 2010 season when he got really angry, I think at an umpire's bad call.  Need that type of passion during the game, as well as "move on" attitude afterward, to be an effective closer, and he apparently has this quality.

No Mas Machi

I usually applaud Bochy for his moves, but I felt that he was late in his changes again.  As noted above, I would have took out Peavy after he got 5 good innings out of him, plus then this would have let Machi pitch with no runners on, especially since he has not really had a clean appearance so far this season except for his first one out relief appearance.  Since then it has been a hit parade, as well as run parade.

Instead, he faced two runners on with no outs and gave up another hit.  I think Bochy is better off using Machi in low pressure situations, he's obviously battling some sort of nerves, it happens to the best of us, same as Strickland.  But after this amount of time, I think you use him in garbage time and big leads, if he gets in trouble, stop him quick and bring in the Big Boys, Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, and Casilla.

Liking Lincecum

I'm not sure what the issue was with not using Lincecum, unless he was suffering from some sort of extreme fatigue or something, or working on mechanics (but then why carry him when Kontos could have contributed).  But I still believe in Timmy and he delivered almost two innings of dominance when his back stiffened, and he had to leave the game.

Report from Baggarly is that he has suffered issues like this since high school, when he had his growth spurts and they would come and go, but never linger.  His MRI, just for precaution, came out clean as well.  He threw a normal session today and said that he felt normal and declared himself ready for Game 3 use.  Remember his rubber arm, as I agree with Baggarly that he has moved ahead of Machi and Strickland on the bullpen totem pole, you might see Lincecum bridge the middle innings as necessary in the rest of the games, he says that he can go every day.  Good time to test this out given Machi, Strickland, and Peavy's problems getting hitters out.

In Bochy I Trust

I've been a bit concerned about Bochy's bullpen usage during these playoffs, and I don't think the leopard has changed his spots, so I have been thinking that Bochy needed to see how much he can depend on Machi and Strickland during the playoffs, and the only way to do that is to use them.  Same with Peavy.  They all let him down, and, thinking back, most players have delivered for the most part, and when not, apparently there was something to fix, and they bring him back fine, like Bumgarner in 2012.  Meanwhile, he didn't need to use Lincecum, so why tire him out when you can run other guys out there, but when he needed him to eat innings yesterday, he did.

So, if this theory is correct, we should see a drastic change in bullpen usage going forward.  Lincecum would be used like he was in 2012, every game if necessary.  Machi and Strickland will get to face 1-3 batters, see how it goes, start them in a clean inning.  Bochy has been the master of the bullpen for ages now, and still, most of the time this off-season, so my best guess is that he's testing to see who he can rely on.

Happy with Huddy

He has come through for us this post-season.  Two DOM starts, and I am encouraged by this because it was exactly what he did early in the season when he was healthy and well rested.  It's been what he's been doing for the last 13 seasons, methodically, professionally, La Machine.  3.57 ERA this season, 3.45 ERA for his career, 3.38 ERA since his TJS.  This is why I wanted the Giants to sign him, and he has delivered in spades.

Here is what I wrote in my other post:

Game 3 is also a bit of a toss-up, based on DOM, but I give the edge to the Giants.  Both pitchers have similar DOM% for the season, but while Hudson has two DOM starts so far in the post-season, Guthrie has none, not even getting a start in the ALDS, and throwing a 2 PQS in the ALCS, where he only had 2 K's in 5 IP but 2 BB's.   

But it is the World Series, the first for Hudson.  Of course, he beat the pressure in the NLCS and had a 4 PQS start there, winning his start.  And he was masterful, with 5 K's and 0 walks in 6.1 IP.  Again, could be a turning point for the Giants here, again, as Bochy understands must wins.

I still think we have the edge on paper, but as the saying goes, that's why we play these games.  Another positives are these (tweets from Baggarly):

Tim Hudson said he's physically and mentally ready to pitch the biggest game of his life.
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) October 24, 2014

Hudson wouldn't go into specifics on all that went into his hip rehab, but clearly there was a lot. "Medicine's a beautiful thing," he said.
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) October 24, 2014

Basically, Hudson was on a downward trend with his PQS after he skipped a start earlier this season, finally getting worse and worse until his last start of the season.  By that point, it was reported that he had been battling some sort of hip issue.  Without a skipped start, but with the medicine,  he has had three straight DOM starts.  And with 10 days of rest, he should be well rested again.

So it should be a good game on our side.  Not as sure a thing for Guthrie, but he's been good in the regular season, and perhaps his first playoff start was just a fluke and he delivers.  But I like our chances, it was Hudson who led us in the early going, not Bumgarner, who was struggling a bit with the heavy mental load of being the ace (he had been aces for a long time until then, a machine; he's been a machine since the beginning of May).

Plus, our hitters are pretty good at avoiding strikeouts and getting walks, and Guthrie is particularly susceptible to left-handed hitters, of which we have a lineup full of them, plus Posey and Pence who hit RHP and LHP almost equally well, and he already have trouble striking out hitters in general, so the Giants should be putting a lot of balls into play against him, much like KC against Peavy.

I feel pretty good about this game, Go Giants!

Your 2014 Giants: World Series: Game 2

Giants win game 1 behind Bumgarner's DOMinating start, 5 PQS.  But the offense, with Pence's 2-run homer, gave him all the support he would need:  a factoid on Twitter noted that team has been 60-3 behind Bumgarner when he's been given a 3 run lead.  There was a nice article on him in the NY Times.  And I guess this simulation has been proven wrong, KC will not win the first game (SF wins game 3 on a BCraw homer though, so that can still come true).

Your 2014 Giants: World Series: Royals

Wow, the Giants are in the World Series!  How many of us were thinking, sure, no problem, during the depths of the June Swoon?  Probably just 25 plus the coaches.

I still thought that they had the talent (before the season, I thought a 95-100 win season was not out of the question, and that looked pretty good until June), but sometimes when you go into a deep dive, you don't have enough time to get back up.  So it was obvious to me, their talent, whether they made it to the playoffs or not.  Though, as I noted on Shankbone's, I've been eerily calm about the team, I just felt really good about this team.  I still do.

ogc thoughts

The Giants are going with the same 25 man roster they had in the NLCS.  So Lincecum, despite not being used so far, is still considered a valuable option to have in emergency, but not good enough when things are tight and we need a shut down reliever, like we did in 2012.

The Royals have swapped out Colon for Nix, a swap of utility MI.  They are only carrying 11 pitchers, enabling them to hold onto their pinch-runners.  They are carrying only their best pitchers, with only Guthrie with an ERA above 4 and three lefties in the bullpen with Duffy, Collins, and Finnegan.  Collins probably made the roster because he's a lefty (3.86 ERA 4.80 FIP), since the Giants lineup is very left-oriented.

I've been looking at the teams and below are my thoughts.  Mostly, I think we have a good chance at a third trophy, but the BABIP gods could decide otherwise.

The starting pitching is about the same, I believe, though perhaps Guthrie and Vargas gets swapped.  Game:

1. Bumgarner 67% DOM vs. Shields 65% DOM
2. Peavy 67% DOM with Giants vs. Ventura 60% DOM
3. Hudson 47% DOM vs. Guthrie 53% DOM (KC TBA, making guess from ALCS)
4. Vogelsong 52% DOM vs. Vargas 53% DOM (KC TBA, making guess from ALCS)  

First off, I would note that in the ALCS, only Vargas actually pitched a DOM start.  None of the other three did, and the only reason they won was because the O's pitchers were worse.  They averaged 2.75 PQS while the O's averaged 1.5 PQS, as they had two DIS starts from their top two starters.

Not that the Giants were all that much better (2.4 PQS vs. 2.2).   I think Vogie finally just had a bad start, that is going to happen to any good starter, he was BABIPed, but he's had so many successes that I think he's OK in pressure situations like the World Series.  We were lucky to win that game given how well Wainwright pitched, but then we got to the weak link:  Matheny insisted on using Wacha, do or die, in the bottom of the 9th.  Not the closer, not any other trusted bullpen reliever, the one guy he hadn't used at all during the playoffs, kind of like he felt he owed it to Wacha to give him an appearance.   And even after putting two men on base, he didn't bring in anyone else to shut down the rally.  And Peavy has never had a DOM start in the playoffs, so there is that too.

The Scheduled Starting Pitchers

Game 1 will be a toss up, because both pitchers will probably be shutdown.  However, I would note that Shields was not that great in his O's start, lots of hits given up, presumably BABIP though, but only struck out 3 in 5 IP.  But in the playoffs, you have to wonder if they are not performing up to snuff because of the pressure.  Because of this I give Bumgarner the edge over Shields in any matchup they may have.

Game 2 will be a toss up, mainly because I'm not sure either pitcher can stand up to the pressure.  Peavy has never had a DOM start ever in the playoffs.  Thus Venture is up on him, throwing a DOM start against the Angels.   Still, Ventura had a 2 PQS in this ALCS start, as he was very wild, didn't give up that many hits but walked 3 and only struck out 3 in 5.2 IP.  Our patient hitters could eat him up while our hackers could drive him crazy as he throw a bad pitch to Pablo and watches it fly away, far away.  I think this is a game where you wait for the first pitcher to blow up, then the other team will preserve the lead by taking out their starter the moment there is trouble and have their bullpen save the game.  This game can go either way, but I would note that Bochy is comfortable bringing in his relievers at any time in the game, even if the starting pitcher hasn't reached 5 IP yet, whereas Yost has mostly defined roles for his relievers, with Herrera his 7th inning guy (sometimes 6th), Davis his 8th, and Holland his 9th, and probably roles for everyone else too, that is the thing often said about relievers, they like to know what their role is and when they might be used.

Both pens are strong, KC has 3.27 ERA while SF has 3.01 ERA.  KC is better with 8.7 K/9 but SF better with 2.95 K/BB.  And both teams are bringing only their best pitchers, for the most part (I still think Kontos deserves a spot, but who gets dropped, Lincecum? Another bench player?  So I understand, but feel bad for him).   Their bullpen might be our equals in terms of talent, if not better.  But our bullpen is working on a string of scoreless appearances going back to the 2010 playoffs, so the Royals will need to better that.

Plus, while their bullpen has a lot of live arms, the Giants have hitters who love fastballs.  There recently was a list of hitters with homers on pitches over 95 MPH and Pence, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, and Crawford showed up on that list.  So while their relievers can bring it, our hitters have been able to hit it, as well.  We'll see who wins there.

The difference might be the offense.  KC's offense was at 4.02 RS/game, below average in the AL.  SF's offense was at 4.10 RS/game, above average in the NL, and they were handicapped by not having an offensive 2B most of the season and not having Belt in the lineup most of the season, as well as having no DH to boost up their RS totals, unlike the Royals.  Meanwhile, we will have a functioning DH in Morse, to help make our offense even better.

Game 3 and 4 starters for KC has not been announced.  Both Guthrie and Vargas had similar DOM/DIS in the season, but Vargas has been much more successful during these playoffs, with two DOM starts so they could be flopped from the order they were in the ALCS, but I'm sticking with that order below.  In addition, I suspect that should the Royals find themselves in a must-win game in Game 4, that Yost would push Shields up a day to Game 4, to face Vogelsong.

Game 3 is also a bit of a toss-up, based on DOM, but I give the edge to the Giants.  Both pitchers have similar DOM% for the season, but while Hudson has two DOM starts so far in the post-season, Guthrie has none, not even getting a start in the ALDS, and throwing a 2 PQS in the ALCS, where he only had 2 K's in 5 IP but 2 BB's.  But it is the World Series, the first for Hudson.  Of course, he beat the pressure in the NLCS and had a 4 PQS start there, winning his start.  And he was masterful, with 5 K's and 0 walks in 6.1 IP.  Again, could be a turning point for the Giants here, again, as Bochy understands must wins.

Here is a quote from him (Baggerly) and a big part of why I love him as our manager (besides the winning):

''You're always learning from your past experiences, whether it's during the season or postseason. The one thing I think I've learned is it's different, the postseason. It's not the regular season,'' Bochy said. ''You don't have that margin of error to make up for these games. You lose a game in May, and you still have 100-plus games to make that up.''

In other words, as I've been trying to illustrate this off-season, almost every game of the playoffs is a must win game, but obviously, someone has to lose.  Bochy has just done a better job of not being the one to lose, he has understood that each game is an entity to itself and thus you throw out all the stops to win that game, then worry about the next game tomorrow.

Game 4 is again a match-up of equals, both DOMs are close to each other again, but again, I think we got the slight edge.  Vogelsong had a DIS start, but he had a five game streak of post-season starts with 1 run or less, including a great game against the Nats in the NLDS.  Vargas was a bit lucky with the BABIP, giving up only 2 hits in 5.1 IP and striking out 6, but he also walked 3 batters, a high walk rate, but did have a DOM start, 4 PQS.  But it seems to me that again, the Giants can exploit his wildness, as indicated by his 3 walks.  But he has two DOM starts in the playoffs so far, so you got to respect that.  And if the Royals do swap, and put him in Game 3 instead, that would make it tough for Hudson to win, it would be a coin flip.

Again, our hitters are very patient hitters, willing to work the walk if they have to, to put pressure on the pitcher, to put pressure on the fielders (because our team has not been striking out that much in the playoffs), to allow their compatriot batting next to be the hero of that particular game.  That has a trait across all our World Series teams, there has not really been one hero, even if there are MVPs, there has usually been one guy after another stepping up to save the day for our team.

Because our hitters are patient and don't strike out too much, starting pitchers' pitch count goes up faster, thus pushing their opponents to have to go to their middle inning pitchers first, before having to face KC's three-headed monster of Herera, Davis, Holland 7, 8, 9.  They also have Frasor, Duffy and Finnegan, who have all been great.  So they have a pretty good bullpen too, middle to end, perhaps better than our bullpen, they remind me of the 2012 Giants in that overall their bullpen numbers are pedestrian, but they aren't carrying those bad relievers, they just got the ones who are very good.  Looks like we will need to get to their starters for big runs first and then need to outlast their strong bullpen.

Their hitters are also tough like the Giants, not striking out much, putting balls into play a lot.  However, unlike the Giants, they do not walk much.  I think that this plays into the Giants pitchers' happy zone.  Our pitchers frequently throw strikes and get them, particularly Bumgarner and Petit.  The other pitchers don't strike out a lot, but operate with a lot of BABIP, which our fielders are used to doing anyway, and like the Royals, rarely make mistakes that the other team capitalizes on.

One stat I've had a laugh at is the one about how the Royals weren't homerun hitters during the regular season, but they have been during the playoffs, and therefore that is an advantage for them.  The Giants pitchers are not strikeout guys for the most part, but what they are is good homerun preventers.  That was documented in a Fangraphs study a while back, how no matter what personnel or year, the Giants have been pretty good at avoiding giving up homeruns.  Of course, this playoff month has seen a lot of homers, but they have mostly been because Strickland apparently had been tipping his pitches.

Fangraph analysis found that the Giants hitters have a general advantage as well:

By the pitch type values, at least, it looks like the Giants’ hitters are equipped to handle the fastballs of the Royals’ staff. And the Royals’ hitters may have trouble with the Giants’ breaking balls. These are general statements, hopefully made more believable by focusing on a larger sample. 

Thus, I think the series will hinge on how well each starter does for their team.  According to this MLB.com article, their starting pitchers have struggled so far in the playoffs:

Solid starting pitching has been a strength for the Royals this season, but staff ace James Shields (5.63 ERA) has struggled in the postseason, No. 2 manYordano Ventura showed diminished velocity and left his ALCS start with shoulder tightness, and the Royals have had to be careful enough with Danny Duffy's innings that he has been kept out of the rotation altogether this October.

Thus they are relying a lot on Vargas and Guthrie to come through.  Vargas has done well in these playoffs with two DOM starts, but Guthrie only got the one start and only a 2 PQS, because he didn't strike out too many batters (just 2).

Where our staff, at least during the regular season, has done much better than the Royals is in the percentage of Disaster starts.  Even mediocre pitchers can sustain a lower ERA (like Hennessey) by avoiding the disaster starts.  A DIS start really skews things and jumps the ERA up.  While Shields and Bumgarner were basically the same, Peavy/Hudson/Vogelsong averaged roughly 12-13% DIS starts, while the Royal's Ventura/Guthrie/Vargas averaged roughly 20%.  And 80-90% of the time you have a disaster start and the other team don't, you lose.

So far this post-season, KC in their 8 games has a 63% DOM and 0% DIS, while SF has in their 10 games, 60% DOM and 20% DIS.  SSS rules as usual, but KC's staff was not that good at avoiding the DIS start in the regular season.  But they are looking due for at least one DIS start.  A thin margin for the Giants, but if they can get that advantage, that is often enough for a series win, tipping it in their favor.  Because, as I've been saying often this post-season:  every game is a must win.

I would caveat, on the Giants side, that Peavy, had he been allowed to go another inning, and did that OK, he probably would have gotten a 2 PQS, it was just that it was a run-scoring opportunity, which Bochy cashed in but it was for naught because the Giants ended up losing 5-4.  So he was not that bad, but wasn't that good either, which is the theme of his playoff career.

Vogelsong, however, was plain bad, but mostly hurt by BABIP.  Still, Peavy has no DOM playoff games to his credit, whereas this was the first blip on Vogelsong's post-season career, in 7 starts, 3 DOM, only 1 DIS, for 42% DOM and 14% DIS, and 1 or less runs given up until this last start (DIS starts will do that to you).  However, that is not as good as Vogelsong has done in the regular season for us, so he could be feeling the pressure during crunch time as well.

I think our success in this World Series will revolve around how well our starters do relative to the Royal's starters, much like the Orioles losing to the Royals, rather than the Royals beating the Orioles.  The ones who can laid down a DOM start on the throat of the other team will help lead his team to the trophy.  Bumgarner looks likely, but he faltered against Wainwright the second tie.  Peavy just has never had one DOM start.  Perfect time for one.  Hudson has been seemingly rejuvenated this post-season, with two DOM starts, much like he was laying down early this season.  He's getting a lot of rest again leading into the Game 3 start, so

With similar enough starters, lineup, bullpen, defense, the big advantage the Royals have over the Giants are their speed and willingness to use it to try to disrupt the Giants defense, as well as gain an extra base.   Posey is a good catcher, able to throw out runners with his strong arm, but our pitchers have not always been the best at holding runners.  Hopefully our pitchers can keep their cool, and just focus on pitching while trying to keep the runner close enough to 1B so that Posey can have a chance to throw the runner out.

This might set the stage and foundation for what we will see in this World Series, if they keep the Giants off-balance, the Royals could force the issue and take over the series.  This is the only way I can see the Royals for sure making the Giants look bad, is via a cartoon samba across the basepath to score runs, as they haven't really faced such an offense before except for the Royals, and, er, we got beat Royally.

And that might be our saving grace there, losing all three to them already.  They can't help but feel subconsciously over confident from doing that.  It is just human nature, even though I see some of them saying the right things.

Meanwhile, never bet against our Giants when their backs are against the wall or when they have been embarrassed like that.  Like Panik studying how to hit the best cutter in baseball, to Posey prepping the pitchers on the opposing teams hitters, to the Giants advanced analytics team positioning our fielders at just the right spot most of the time, the Giants overall seem like a team that likes to prepare extra well for the other team.  And while not every team without experience screws up, KC didn't exactly do all that well either in the ALCS, their pitching let them down, and if it wasn't for the Oriole's pitching doing worse, the story might be about the orange and black facing the black and orange.  I also see the Giants pinch-hitting options being denigrated, but Susac and Duffy did well after their first month of adjustments, plus Perez has been good in stretches as well, and Arias was on fire at the end of the season.

An article I was reading about how good the Royals are noted how they are proof that you don't need two aces to get through the playoffs and reach the World Series.  What it is proof of is that when you got two teams who don't have multiple aces, somebody has to win the series, two aces or not.  That's obvious, on the face of it, but nobody seems to notice that is the reality.  The point about having multiple aces is to maximize your team's chances of making it through the playoffs, go deep, and get into the World Series.

While the Giants do not have aces this season, in prior runs, they did have them, in terms of performances, in Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner in 2010, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong in 2012.   I think Bumgarner and Hudson look ready to give us that DOM start, and hopefully Vogelsong can do it too.  Hudson got plenty of rest between starts which has got to help him, and I'm hoping it helps Vogelsong as well.  Peavy has not had one DOM start in the playoffs ever, so this would be a great time for at least one, if not two.   As my study has shown, the starting pitcher's performance in the game makes a huge difference in whether a team wins or not.

Baseball Prospectus published a preview of the World Series.  It notes that the Giants don't give away many outs, being first or near the top in a number of categories like fewest outs on the bases.  Yost's lack of usage of pinch-hitters, but frequent use of pinch-runners.  Bumgarner's four-seam fastball being one of the few "80" pitches in the league, and arguably getting better with each start.  Opponents this October are hitting .132 against the four-seamer with a .132 SLG, meaning zero ISO.  Shields leaning heavily on the cutter, which is the pitch Panik hit a homer off of Wainwright because of the work he put in studying Bill Mueller hitting a homer of Mariano Rivera.  The author also noted that his cutter has been elevating it more than usual, with three homers, as he's been hit fairly hard, so that's something to watch out for too.

Scenario Thinking

I was reading Kawakami's column analyzing the World Series - he picked the Giants in 6 games - and I realized that such an exercise would not have any value if I take a scenario approach to it.

And the theme, much as it has been this post-season, pivots on what happens in Game 1.  I think Bumgarner is going to have the game of his life.  He has risen to the occasion so very often, and has two shut-outs already in the previous World Series.  I expect him to win Game 1 and Game 5 - which is what Kawakami thinks too - which reduces it to winning two games in five for Peavy (2 games), Hudson (2 games), Vogelsong (1 game).  I also think that the Royals, so used to running over the other teams in the playoffs that a loss would put that seed in their mind, and the Giants would win in 4 or 5 games, mainly because they have Petit in reserve in the likelihood that a starter has a rough and/or short start, then Lincecum, who should be very rested by now.  I'm about 80% sure he'll win, both because he'll pitch well, as well as Shields will give it up at some point.

In the scenario that the Giants lose Game 1, I still think that the Giants will win in 6 or 7 games.  Overall, the Royals staff did not rise to the occasion in the ALCS, they just did well enough to beat the Orioles, but the Royals did not beat the Orioles, the Orioles lost to the Royals, as their starting pitching let them down.  And if they struggled to rise to their seasonal potential in the ALCS, I suspect they will struggle some, as a group, in the World Series.  They also had issues with DIS starts in the regular season as well, the World Series could amplify that tendency.

For, as I've documented here before, prior research found that offense demonstrated during the season don't correlate with playoff success (BP and THT).  It is good pitching and fielding that correlates.  Thus, it is up to each team's starters and relievers to dictate the action.

I had forgotten to check, but Shields has been mostly a mess starting in the playoffs (Fangraphs has a blog on this too, found it after writing this).  He does have some DOM starts to his credit:  in 9 starts, 4 DOM and 2 DIS or 44% DOM/22% DIS.  However, he has held opponents to three runs allowed or less only four of those starts, meaning he has given up four or more runs in five of those starts.

All the other Royals are playoff newbies.  Vargas has risen to the occasion with two DOM starts.  Ventura had a DOM in the ALDS but a 2 PQS in the ALCS.  Guthrie didn't even get a start in the ALDS and had a 2 PQS in the ALCS as well.  As much as it's said that experience is not key in the World Series, it is if the pitcher's can not handle the adrenaline rush in the early part of the game, and they make all sorts of location mistakes.  And given what happened in the ALCS, I have to think that at least one if not two of the Royal's starters will falter in their first World Series start.  That should be enough to win it again for the Giants.

However, if their starters step up and pitch to how well they did in the regular season, it will be a battle between the two teams that will be epic, particularly if Shields step up against Bumgarner, and the Championship will pivot on one key play/mistake being made at some point during the series, creating another Series hero.

Go Giants!  Win us another championship!  #ChampionBlood #ThreeIsANiceNumber

Your 2014 Giants ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

The Giants win the Pennant!  The Giants win the Pennant!  The Giants win the Pennant!

ogc thoughts

Wow, what a series, what an ending!

Travis Ishikawa, gaining redemption for misplaying the flyball earlier, giving the Cards their first run, hit a three-run homer for a walk-off win in the bottom of the 9th, just like billions of kids have dreamed of doing.

Meanwhile, NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner pitched well enough, while coughing up a couple of homers, and despite all the strike thrown, not that many strikeouts, to keep the team close, after giving up the 3 runs after 4 innings pitched, shutting down the Cards for another 4 innings, getting us to the point where Michael Morse could hit a homer in the 8th to tie the game, then Ishi came through in the bottom of the 9th.

And oh, how fortunes can change in just one year, Wacha, after winning the NLCS MVP award last season, he's used in the whole series until now, pitches third of an inning, ending with a 81.00 ERA for this series.

Can't forget Joe Panik hitting the team's first homer of the NLCS, two run homer to put the team ahead after the Cards scored the first run on the ball that Ishi misplayed.  After all these runs scored without hits, the Giants score six runs in this game with the long ball, a solo, a two-run, and the walk-off three-run.

Congrats to the Giants!  Good luck in the World Series!

Go Giants!

LA LA Lagging for 25 Years

LA LA Laughable

ogc thoughts

I was vacationing in the LA area and while wandering all over the Magic Kingdom's two parks, I got to noticing that a lot of Giants fans were representing our colors.  There were around 6-8 wearing Giants clothing of some sort.  There were also just as many 49er fans as well, including a Kaepernick uni (Go Niners!).  There was even a pair of Angels fans (so maybe they should count as one).  I also saw a Padres cap.

Two Dodgers fans walking around.

Now, I do realize that Disneyland has more visitors from outside, but still, they sell their season passes too to locals, and they were on school vacation too.  Plus, I went on the weekend, so more locals could have shown up too, as people can do things in the weekend.  In addition, I am counting the people I saw while doing down Downtown Disney, as well as roaming around Koreatown, looking for my daughter's K-pop music store, as well as driving down the lovely I-5 freeway (though mostly just moseying along, a few feet at a time).

Two Dodgers fans.

And that got me to thinking about a post I was going to post up, which I'm now incorporating into this post, which was to point out that the Dodgers have now gone 25 years without a World Series championship, which is their longest stretch without one since their franchise start long one that stretched from the 1800's to their first one in 1955 (71 years).  And sadly for their fans there, the team left Brooklyn within two years of accomplishing their first championship.

Perhaps this relatively long stretch of nothing explains the lack of fervor in their fan base publicly.  Sure, they had a nice season in 2013, but after so many years of not winning, the fans will believe it when they see it.  I can certainly understand that feeling, while I have always worn Giants clothing most of my adult life, when possible, I know that I did not see as much orange and black on the public before that glorious 2010 Championship.  The general fan base had a malaise that would need the shock of a championship to make it alive again.

They also had a stretch of 16 years between their 1965 and 1981 titles, meaning that their glory years were really last in the 1960's, with a brief blossoming in the 1980's.  That's two in the last 48 years.

Of course, the Giants had their 56 year stretch, getting into three World Series but losing each time, which was preceded by a 21 year stretch, where they also got into the World Series three times but lost each time. And for myself, I had been a fan for nearly 40 years before our first World Series Championship.  But with the counter reset by our glorious World Series Championships in 2010 and 2012, we are only one season since our last championship.

Whereas the Dodgers have now gone through 25 seasons without tasting that sweet sweet championship champagne!

While the Dodgers have a lot of money buying up a lot of talent, I think the Giants are in good position to stay relevant and playoff worthy for the rest of the decade, no matter what LA does.  The Giants have spent money to keep their best players around.  They have a number of young players who are blossoming and relatively cheap.  They have a huge mass of pitching talent climbing through the farm system, now filling up Richmond's and San Jose's rotation, plus some good ones in Fresno and Augusta as well, mostly starters but also some very interesting and dominating relievers as well.  They should be able to win the 92 games necessary to get into the playoffs each season and win at least 90 games, which would give them a fighting chance, year in, year out, to make the playoffs, barring catastrophic injury to a core player.

The Dodgers lineup is creaking with their age, only Puig is significantly under 30, Kemp is the only other one under 30 (and will soon enough be 30 YO season in 2015).  Their pitching rotation however, is very young, and if they are able to add Tanaka or Price or someone equivalent to their rotation, they could be even better than the Giants.  

But as we saw in 2013, if your players don't have their health, the team will suffer, and the Dodgers have a lot of health question marks in their lineup (for pitching, it is a given), as well as hitters getting into that nexus of their early 30's when things start to break down in the human body.  So they are just as likely, if not more likely, to suffer from player injuries as the Giants would, which I see as one area of concern from the general fan base.

And the Giants formula from 2009 to 2012 was strong starting pitching and we should have it again in 2014.  Bumgarner is just getting better every year.  Cain after his post-Perfecto lull in PQS DOM starts, ended the season with a strong 7 5-PQS starts in 10 starts, something he could not accomplish since the Perfecto.  Hudson is a pitching machine, generating mid-3 ERA seasons whether AL or NL, pre-TJS or post, and there is no reason his ankle injury should affect him in the future, he got a clean bill of health from the Giants doctors and there has been no reports of set backs in his recovery.

That's a great 1-2-3 rotation.  Then Lincecum probably will be a good 4th starter.  Lincecum ended the season with a nice run, which would have been even better if not so many of his inherited runners scoring while in the care of the bullpen, 7 out of 8, when on average 2-3 scores.  Reducing that to 4 of 8 would have reduced his ERA to 3.48 for his second half starts (excusing his poor start after his no-no, given what we saw what happened to Cain after his no-no).  That's the formula we had in 2009-2012, surviving even a poor 5th starter, like we did in some seasons, to be a Top 5 team in RS allowed, with two starters around 3 ERA and two starters around mid-3 ERA, and if Vogelsong can just be average, that would be a big advantage over other teams because they usually have garbage in their 5th spot (if not their 4th spot).  The Giants would not have spent all that money re-signing Lincecum unless they thought he was close to returning to relevance as a starter.

Combine that with strong offense - lineup calculator with projections estimate the offense to be around 4.5 to 4.6 RS per game - and the Giants easily wins 92 games, maybe approach 95 games.  LA will be strong, but so will the Giants.  Bring it on!

Go Giants!

Your 2012 Giants: Game 4 of the World Series

Wow, again, the epicness continues.  Ryan Vogelsong with his shutout performance continued some epic threads which I'll include in the comments when I have more time.  Suffice to say that Vogelsong, Lincecum, Romo's shutout of the Tigers was another Epic occurrence in these playoffs, this season.  Tim Lincecum has been totally dominant as a reliever in these playoffs, shutting down the other team when they might rise up, bridging the starter and the closer, getting the Giants that much closer.

And that is what has been missing from the media:  pitching wins in the playoffs.  The talk was all about the Tiger's mighty hitters, but nothing about the Giants shutdown pitchers.  As my research has shown, when pitchers dominate, that team normally wins.  Ironically, Anibal had a 5 PQS DOM start and Vogelsong didn't, only a 2 PQS, would have been 3 if he pitched one more out, so the Tigers actually had a better pitched game, but sometimes pitchers can will themselves to a win.  Vogie certainly did in this game.

3-0.  No team has ever come back from that, most end in 4 games, a handful to 5 games, but pretty much done.  Psychologically, that makes sense, but then again the Giants beat that TWICE already in the playoffs, first against the Reds, then the Cards, so the question is:  Do the Tigers have a Hunter amongst them who can rise them up and do the improbable?  From the media, I don't see anyone talking brave like the Giants did in the face of the impossible.  So I would say no, but you never no.  But I don't have anybody else I would want starting this game but Cainer.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 3 of the World Series

Wow, what a great game pitched by Madison Bumgarner!  He did so many epic things in this start, starting with two straight shutout outings in the World Series, see the comments for Game 2 for all the EPIC details.  He was able to figure out, for the most part, whatever it was that was causing him to not pitch well.

He had some bad pitches, leading to a lot of balls, but he was baffling them enough that they could not do anything with his pitches.  And it probably helped that their one big rally ended with Fielder out at the plate, don't know what the coach was thinking there, but that was huge, it probably knocked the Tigers back on their heels, took a little air out of them with that gut punch.  Still, that was the only major threat where they came close to scoring.

So he had a 5 PQS start, a DOM start, and Fister did well do, a 4 PQS, also a DOM start.  That is five straight DOM starts for Giants pitchers, and 7 of 8.  And fifth straight games that the Giants pitcher out-pitched the other team.
Gotta give props to Hunter Pence too.  He was involved in both runs scoring in the game, first as the runner scoring, then as the RBI guy with yet another sacrifice fly by the Giants (they were the leaders by a margin in this particular category).  Some fans seem tired of him and what not, but he's been a really good hitter throughout his career, and I think he'll bust out for us at some point, but for not, I'll take this, because without both runs, Madison's great outing would have been wasted and who knows then what would have happened.  Instead, Giants victory, now up 2-0 in the series, needing only two more.

But, like many of the players have cautioned, you need four to win, and look at what the Giants did in the playoffs, the Tigers could do the same.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 2 of the World Series

Wow, the Giants couldn't have had a better game.  A good Zito outing.   3 homer game for Panda.  As I documented in my other post, Verlander and Zito continued their trends with Umpire Gerry Davis.  Lincecum had a nice shutdown reliever appearance.  That is Giants wins in Zito's last 14 starts.  He now has 2-0 record with 1.69 ERA in 16.0 IP.

I'm a bit tired about the announcers talking about the Giants having no power.  Panda has power, he just was injured this season.  Plus Posey and Pence have a history of power, plus Belt some too.  I also noted a couple of other errors they made (and I only watched the last half of the game) via Sulia and Twitter.  And it sucks that we have to see A.J. Pierzitski on the crew, really, there was nobody else available?

Your 2012 Giants: Game 1 of the World Series!!!

Wow, the Giants win the pennant and they are in the 2012 World Series, getting home advantage due to the good performances from a number of Giants players, including Melky, Cain, and Sandoval.  However, the Tigers having Verlander pitching games 1 and 5 probably evens up that advantage, as the Giants burned Vogelsong and Cain needing to win the last two games, leaving Zito and Lincecum as the starters with enough rest to start game 1 with regular rest.

In fact, if the Giants hope to pitch both Vogelsong and Cain twice in the series, they would need to start Vogelsong with only 3 days rest, not his usual 4-5 days.  Bochy had noted the poor results for starting pitchers who were given less days of rest as a reason not to push Vogelsong for game 5 (Cain too for a start as well).  Vogelsong has never pitched on 3 days rest.

Well, that is all moot now, Bochy has named the playoff rotation:  Zito in game 1, Bumgarner in game 2, Vogelsong in game 3, and Cain in game 4, with Lincecum out of the bullpen.  If that holds, that means Zito in game 5, Bumgarner in game 6, and Vogelsong in game 7, presumably with Cain also available out of the pen in game 7, if necessary.

In any case, it's Verlander against Zito.  Not really what Giants would want to see in Game 1.  Or is it?

Your 2012 Giants ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES! EPIC!

The Giants completed an EPIC comeback in the NLCS, coming back from being down 3-1 in a seven game series and beating the Cards 9-0, behind the stout pitching of Matt Cain, 4 PQS DOM start (one out away from a third 5 PQS start by Giants starters, he clearly yelled "NO!" when Bochy came out, and he most likely would have been given the chance to do that by Bochy if 1) the Giants weren't leading by 7-0, 2) Cain was already at 102 pitches, and 3) Bochy wants to save Cain for the World Series).

He continued a streak of three DOM starts by the Giants starting pitchers, and they had DOM starts in 5 of the 7 games, a stark and necessary change from their 1 DOM start in 5 games in the NLDS against the Reds.  They should not have been put into the position of needing to win the last three games, they outpitched the Cards by PQS in 5 of the 7 games, but the win by Lohse in game 3 made it necessary.  And  Cain delivered like he did in the 2010 playoffs, shutting out the Cards, winning easily.

Of course, it helped greatly that the Giants scored runs in their first three innings, including 5 in the third to take a 7-0 lead, with Pence delivering a key hit, driving in two of the runs, and ended the day with 2 hits.  Belt belted one deep into the RF stands for a homer and 9-0 lead.

They are the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back in two series down by two games and winning three straight to win each series.  They are the only two teams to do that since the MLB expanded the playoffs to four teams in both leagues in 1969.

And, in any case, any way you write it, winning six straight elimination games like that is EPIC no matter how many or little teams in the past have done that.  It takes a lot of cujones to do that, and Posey and Cain, to me, are the leaders who instills this sense in the team that anything is possible.  After all, it was the two of them talking at the celebration parade about returning to the World Series and winning it again.  It was Cain who earlier this season exhorted his teammates: "Here, I'm going to keep battling for you. You keep battling for me."  The Giants have been 85-56 since Cain made that statement, and won the NL Championship and earned another trip to the World Series.

Finally, it was very fitting that Holliday popped up to Scutaro for the last out.  His dirty slide really pissed off the Giants, particularly Scutaro, who did not hit well against the Reds.

Also, Marco Scutaro won the NLCS Most Valuable Player Award for his stellar hitting, 14 hits in total in the  NLCS, 6 runs scored, 4 RBI, and he struck out only one time in 27 AB, he had 2 walks.  He's the second consecutive late season pickup to win the NLCS for us, Cody Ross being the other one.  Speaking of Ross, Marco tied Ross's team record of hits in 10 straight games.

This is the 19th time the Giants have gotten to the World Series, second only to the Yankees.  They get home advantage because the NL won the All-Star game

To quote Shankbone and repeat the sentiments, "The Giants Win the Pennant!"

As I've been saying for a number of years now:  The Giants are the Team of the 2010 Decade.

Go Giants!  Win it again!

Your 2010 Giants are 3-1 in World Series: No Leeway for Rangers Please

Bumgarner-Posey:  What is a battery for the Giants for the next six seasons?

And to think some Giants fans howled about how the Giants should have brought both of them up earlier, or even to start the season, but by keeping them in the minors, it not only allowed them to figure out how to improve themselves, it allows the Giants to control them for the next six seasons instead of the next five.  Together, they have put the Giants at the brink of finally winning a World Series in San Francisco.

Wow, what a game for Bumgarner!  He did it with a curveball that he was working on in spring training.  He did it with a 94 MPH fastball that was AWOL in spring training (many had written him off as an elite prospect, dropping him down in the prospect ranks).  He shut out a potent Rangers offense, particularly at home, who were only shut out at home once during the regular season, on August 28th, by A's Dallas Braden.  And he only turned 21 recently, he is the second-youngest pitcher in World Series history with at least eight shutout innings and the fourth youngest to win a World Series game, and the FIRST rookie in World Series history to throw eight shutout innings (got that from Baggarly's report on the game).  Fifth youngest pitcher to ever start a World Series game and the youngest since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, and he had 22 first-pitch strikes in 28 batters.  Also, according to this MLB article:

"Bumgarner's eight scoreless innings made him the youngest rookie pitcher (21 years old, 91 days) in World Series history to make a scoreless start of six innings or more, and overall, he is only the seventh rookie to make a start of that kind -- the first since Les Straker pitched six scoreless innings in Game 3 of the 1987 World Series for the Minnesota Twins at the age of 28."

Moreover, he struck out VLAD THE IMPALER Guerrero, the guy the Rangers wanted in their lineup so much against the Giants that they stuck him out in RF in game 1 to get his offense in there, three times, and the only other time in his career that Vlad struck out three times vs. a left-handed starting pitcher in regular season was against Al Leiter on June 16, 1998, in other words, not even once in a blue moon, once every dozen years!  Keith Law tweeted that he loved seeing MadBum throw breaking ball for strikes, noting that left-handers who can do that will work for a long, long time in the MLB.

In post-game interview, he noted that he used his changeup a lot more than he usually does.  I think that is a sign of Posey trying to change up Bumgarner's repertoire in order to counter Molina's knowledge of Bumgarner.  And thus he probably has been doing that this whole series.  So far, so good.

And Posey, man, what a home run!  I knew it was a deep fly, but it didn't seem like it would go out, but it just kept going and going and going, and then before you knew it, it was out of here, almost dead centerfield, thanks to one of his "patented backspin shots" (quote from Baggarly's column).  He became the youngest catcher to hit a homer in the World Series since Johnny Bench in 1970.  While the game was pretty much in hand by that point, that was still an important run, 4-0 is a pretty sizable lead, 3-0 is only two bloop hits or walks away from the tying run coming up to the plate.

Baggarly reported that Bumgarner-Posey became the first all-rookie battery to start a World Series game since Spec Shea and Yogi Berra for the Yankees in the 1947 World Series.  "With the young pitching this team has and Buster behind the plate, this team has a chance to do something special for quite some time," said Huff.

And what about the Huff Papi?  He and his red thong went red-ass on a pitch from Hunter and he hit it deep in the heart of Texas, where the red-necks roam, for a 2-0 lead that proved enough for Bumgarner and the Giants to win with.  The red thong is now 30-14, a .682 winning percentage, which over a whole season would result in 110 wins.  He finally hit his first post-season homer (and thus also first World Series homer; great timing!) and he did it in the park/city that he roamed when he was a kid growing up in Texas and idolizing Nolan Ryan (he went to games at the old and new parks).  And he got all of that pitch, it was a no-doubter.

Got to give Renteria some love for his play during the playoffs and especially during the World Series, he's even gotten an article too.  From the way he's been playing, it is like he's found the Fountain of Youth somewhere;  Krukow said that it was from the adrenaline of playing in the playoffs, that has given Renteria a boost.  If the Giants do seal the deal and win the World Series, to me, Renteria would have earned his entire $18.5M with his play and veteran leadership during these playoffs, including his hitting in the World Series and his simple tip to Cody Ross about what he was doing wrong at the plate, which is a reason for Ross's hot hitting during the playoffs (had his 10 playoff game hitting streak ended yesterday; I think 11 is the record, from what I recall from the TV broadcast of the game).

Also have to mention Andres Torres 3-hit game as well, which led to two runs:  one he scored on Huff's homer, the other when he drove in Renteria.  He has finally either recovered from his surgery and/or nerves from playing in his first MLB playoffs, and in any case, has been an offensive catalyst up top the lineup.  He, along with Franchez, Huff, Ross, and Renteria have been providing enough offense to get the Giants to the precipice of their first World Series championship.

Lastly, the Giants are only the third team in MLB history to pitch 4 shutouts in one postseason, including one other historic Giants team and one influenced by current Giants:  Christy Mathewson-led 1905 NY Giants and the 1998 Yankees, which had key players scouted and drafted/signed by Brian Sabean when he worked for the Yankees.

I'll end with a quote of Brian Sabean (captured aptly by Andy Baggarly, who ended with this), when asked for perspective on Bumgarner's performance:  "Can't.  I have a lump in my throat. I can't even talk, that was so amazing."  Amen to that, amen to that.

Game 5:  Lee vs. Lincecum

I've covered this for Game 1:  two great pitchers, mano-a-mano.  Neither pitched particularly that well in that start, though at least Lincecum calmed down enough to pitch effectively enough.  This game should be the game everyone expected in Game 1, a tight pitchers' duel.  Lee should be good because he don't usually have two lousy games in a row.  

Lincecum for much the same reason, but also because he's usually suffered from nerves whenever the game was important for some reason, like first game of season, etc., though he was great for his first start of the playoffs, but there was not a lot of pressure for that, 0-0 for first game.  This being his second World Series start, I expect his mind to be more locked down, though nerves might still creep in the early innings, as it is still, after all, the World Series.  But he should also be pitching much better too, and may the best man win.  

Giants Thoughts

I'm thinking that Bochy will keep the same lineup, except that he has said that Burrell would start in LF in Game 5, so Schierholtz would be out.  

I was so impressed that Bochy went with both Schierholtz and Ishikawa to start Game 4.  Gutsy call on two reserves who haven't started in ages.  Though they did not do anything offensively, Ishikawa looked good around 1B and Schierholtz being in RF meant that Ross was in LF, and he got to a lot of balls that Burrell either wouldn't or would have had trouble with or getting to.  

That was the right call yesterday.  Hunter had not pitched well all through the playoffs.  He didn't last past the 5th in any game.  Offense should happen with or without Schierholtz and Ishikawa, giving the Giants the advantage since we had Bumgarner going for us.  However, if the defense gives anything to the Rangers, they might be able to create runs and negate that advantage.  So Bochy relied on his starting pitchers and fielding defense to keep the Ranger's scoring down, while the Giants offense takes care of Hunter enough to win the game.

The Giants only need to win one of the next three games to win the World Series;  the Rangers must win them all to win the World Series.  The Giants haven't lost three in a row since late August, and by the same team since early August (D-gers).  Only 6 teams out of 44 have come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series, the last one being the KC Royals in 1985.  So the odds look pretty good for the Giants (though, still, roughly 15% of teams have come back from 3-1 deficit).

However, as Cain noted, "But there's 27 outs, and that's a lot of baseball left."  That's a theme repeated over and over again by any of the Giants interviewed before or after each game, about how they take nothing for granted, sure, they are in great position, but the Rangers are a good team (else they wouldn't be here too) and they approach each game as if the other team was ahead, and not the other way around.  I am gratified and heartened to hear them talk this way, as you never know until you seal the deal and win the four games you need.  They are taking nothing for granted, something Bumgarner noted in an interview, because you never know if you will ever be in this position again.

According to reports, Bochy has not discussed changing his pitching plans regarding Sanchez in Game 7 yet, despite Righetti's concerns over Sanchez's reduced velocity.  And pooh-poohed the thought of bringing in Zito for an injured Sanchez, noting that Jonathan isn't injured or receiving any treatment.  And any injury replacement would have to be approved by the league officials.  

2010's:  The Decade of the Giants

"With the young pitching this team has and Buster behind the plate, this team has a chance to do something special for quite some time," said Huff.  

I've been saying this for a couple of years now:  this will be the decade known for the Giants.  I was sure of that then, I'm surer of it now.  I've said this because I think that they will be in the playoffs nearly every season and making a number of World Series with the core that they have.  I thought it would be pushing it to say that they would make it this season, so they are ahead of the schedule that I had envisioned, but, you know, I'm OK with that.  :^)  

Look at who we have control over and to when, all at minimum because the Giants could always sign them to extensions for more years:

• Lincecum:  2013
• Cain:  2012
• Sanchez:  2013
• Bumgarner:  2016
• Wilson:  2013
• Posey:  2016
• Sandoval:  2014

With pitching like that - and more playoff experienced too - the Giants should be dominating great MLB hitters and lineups for years to come.  I have no doubt that the Giants will eventually sign Lincecum and Cain to contracts that extend into at least to 2015, Wilson probably, Sanchez maybe too if they got enough money:  Rowand's $12M off books in 2013, Zito's $20M off in 2014, Renteria's $10M off in 2011, DeRosa and Franchez $6M in 2012, Huff probably re-signed to $6M for 2011 and 2012, Burrell says he's willing to come back as bench player in 2011, maybe re-sign Uribe too, or go with young SS, Brandon Crawford, whose bat is suspect, but his defense is suppose to be pretty good. Heck, I would be OK signing Renteria to $1M to be MI-utility off the bench, but he would probably pass on that, he was already thinking of retirement and going into business.

Before the season, one thought was that the Giants would ideally acquire Carl Crawford as a free agent this off-season to become our lead-off hitter and offensive sparkplug.  I haven't gone through the numbers, but while it would be great to have him as our starting LF, I'm worried that the big contract he would demand and get might make it hard to keep our core together in the mid-2010's unless there is a plan for the Giants to acquire additional investments.  Plus, the emergence of Andres Torres make that need less acute.

As I noted above, the Giants have been 30-14 with the red thong, a .681 pace that would result in a 110 win season if continued.  While that seems like a lot to hope for in 2011 and would be a pace that maybe one team in any decade could achieve, that winning percentage was actually a SLOWING of the Giants pace of winning during the Posey era.  From the time Molina was traded on July 1st and Posey took his first start as the Giants starting catcher, the team has gone 52-23 (and that includes them losing his first game as starting catcher), a .693 winning percentage, which over a full season would result in a 112 win season.  

While I would never predict such a win total for any particular season, it would not surprise me if they did it at some point in the 2010's nor that they did it multiple times.  We will have both Bumgarner and Posey for a full season going forward, plus both should be able to push up their production over time as they mature and develop and become more experienced.  Jonathan Sanchez too should be even more consistent.  Lincecum too, I think he'll revert back to his Cy Young winning form of the past two seasons going forward.  And I truly believe that Sandoval will revert to his 2009 form once his personal problems become less onerous (divorce, child custody, mother's near-death).

Of course, injuries could put a huge hamper on this.  That's why the Giants need to keep all the pitchers, because if one goes down, you will have the three plus Zito and then you bring up someone or hire a rental.  Having three great starters is still a great situation to be in, hence why you don't go trading them away.  

Giants Gauntlet

It will be the Giants Gauntlet of Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner for the next few years.  Zito would be the weak link, but he could be the #2 starter for any number of teams, who would be happy to have him.  Just like there are lineups where there is no rest for the pitcher, our rotation will provide no rest for opposing hitters, no obvious weakness where the other team could hope to bash against.  Oh, you avoided twice-Cy Young winner Lincecum, oops, you get to face Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner.  You miss Cain?  BAM, see how you like Sanchez, Bumgarner, Lincecum.  And the way Bumgarner is growing and developing, teams might soon be happy that they missed him and got Lincecum, Zito, Cain.

Showing how rare this is, the Giants playoff rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner is the first since the 1986 Red Sox.  And we should have them for years together.  And they should only get better as a group.

This is the rotation I've been talking about for years now, people would ask me when the Giants should trade a pitcher and while I'm not against trading any of our starters, just on the principle that there ARE offers that you can't refuse, I don't expect to trade any of them because I doubt any team would give me what I would want in return for them.  People have been undervaluing Cain and Sanchez for years, but hopefully this glorious gallop towards the World Series championship over the past two months has shown the value of keeping both of them on our team, and how any of the players contemplated as equal value for them (Alex Rios, Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Cory Hart) were not really.

With a pitching rotation like this, the offense does not have to do much in order for the team to win the 90-95 games necessary to win the NL West division each season.  People don't realize how powerful an advantage it is to have pitchers like this on your staff.  Huge advantage.  That is why you don't want to trade any of them, while it might be tempting to do so to boost your offense, by trading, you just made your pitching that much worse, so all you are hoping to do is break even in the trade, and if the player you trade for declines (see Prince Fielder in 2010 after many wanted to trade Cain for him in 2009), then your team declines along with him.

I don't see any being traded unless we couldn't afford them (Neukom:  work on that!!!  Or maybe the A's can help with that in exchange for South Bay rights) or if they don't want to sign extensions with us at a fair salary.  I don't see the latter happening, the players all seem to love playing for the Giants.  

But should that happen, hopefully Sabean will trade him before his last contract year and get us some great prospects, meanwhile, hopefully we will be able to bring up Zach Wheeler, or maybe Eric Surkamp, and any of the nice pitchers we picked up in the 2011 draft who look interesting at the moment.  

With the team looking good as perennial pennant contenders, we'll be having lousy first round draft picks for a long time, so the only way to pick up good prospects would be trading a young stud pitcher under some control to a team needing that one great starter.  I use the Haren example of what the Giants should shoot for, that was a great package of quality and quantity.  That would be the catalyst for continuing being successful in the second half of the 2010's, plus a key free agent signing here and there.

Which brings me back to Carl Crawford.  It is rare when you can sign such a great player at a young age.  He'll only be 29 next season.  He would be an improvement over Torres at leadoff because he can steal so many bases, and would allow us to field lineup of Crawford, Franchez, Torres, Huff, Posey (or Posey, Huff vs. LHP), Ross, Sandoval, plus SS (which would probably allow us to start Brandon Crawford at SS).  If Neukom can make the money work so that we still can keep our starting pitchers into the mid-2010's, then I would be happy with that.  

Your 2010 Giants are 2-1 in the World Series: MadBum Must Hunt Down Rangers

Well, couldn't expect to sweep them, though Ralph was going on and on about that happening on KNBR on Friday.  Got to tip the cap to Lewis for delivering, while Sanchez apparently is tiring due to the number of innings he has thrown.  Game 7's starter is now uncertain.

This is why I wanted the Giants to put Zito on the playoff roster, in case he might be needed.  I thought Bumgarner would be the one who would be fatigued, though.  Still, with Sanchez in question for Game 7, it could either become a bullpen game or the Giants might decide to go to Lincecum for as long as he can go, since he would have pitched Game 5 and would have had two days rest and thus on the day of Game 7, that would be his normal throwing day anyway.  It could be much like Game 6 in the NLCS, with pitchers pitching in.

Also uncertain is the lineup for Game 4.  Burrell is in a deep slump now and has not delivered in any of the World Series games he has started in.  And Sandoval did not deliver in Game 3, he looked like he was pressing again, unfortunately.  He is also a question mark as well.  With a RHP up in game 4 in Hunter, the Giants might go with Schierholtz in the outfield, Ishikawa at 1B, and Huff at DH, or at least one of those changes.  Given how lousy Hunter has been, I would be OK with making all these changes and see how it works, but Bochy don't like to make a lot of changes, so we'll see.

Don't know why the media is so down.  It just dawned on me that perhaps it is the media's fault that the general fan has been so down on the Giants.  One game lost and "the Giants stumble" is the headline on the Mercury.  No wonder some fans are suicidal about the Giants, like lemmings they follow the mood of the headline.

The Giants are still up 2-1.  They are one of the better teams in the majors on the road, and they have been especially good once Posey was named the starting catcher, they were actually among the poorer teams mid-season, but they not only rose and got better, they ended up one of the top teams on the road.

Having a great rotation does not mean that you run roughshod over every team and sweep them, though that will happen on occasion.  It means that you will outlast most teams in the long run.  It means that you will win 2 out of every 3, or so, in most series.  It means that you have faith in what the team has demonstrated it can do for half a season now:  play winning baseball.

Of course, it would help if we have more hitters other than maybe Cody Ross and Andres Torres hitting regularly.   It would be nice if Burrell stepped up, but sometimes the best hitters are slumping now (Barry Bonds was considered a poor playoff performer until 2002).  However, the two I've been hoping could step up are Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval.  Sandoval froze in the spotlight again last night, but I don't totally blame him, he hasn't been starting regularly lately.  And it would have been nice if Posey had hit that foul ball last night for a homer.

I would also be OK with moving Huff to LF to replace Burrell, give him a day to get his mind off playoffs, start Ishikawa at 1B, and give Sandoval another chance at DH.  We need to get Sandoval or Burrell heated up to improve our chances of scoring runs.  Sitting down Burrell while giving Sandoval another chance could help with getting them started.  And, unfortunately, we don't have any better alternatives, I think.

Plus, I think Ishikawa is ready for his chance at spotlight, he has hit well enough since May of 2009, both starting and mostly sitting and waiting for his chances.  Lucky for the Giants but bad for Ishikawa, both Huff and Burrell came through and hit as well as they could be expected to during the season.  Hopefully he can rise to the occasion, or rather that he can be calm for the occasion, he has said previously that when he thought too much about the situation, it would mess up his swing mechanics, but when he can leave it all up to God, that's when he's swinging freely.

Game 4:  Hunter vs. Bumgarner

I still like the Giants chances against Hunter.  Lewis is a very good pitcher, he will have good well-pitched games most of the time.  Had the Giants continued to rack up the pitches (he had over 30 after two innings pitched), they could have got him out earlier and got into the middle relievers and do more damage perhaps, as they did in Games 1 and 2.  But can't expect every game to be like Games 1 and 2.

I think Bumgarner will be able to deliver a better game than Sanchez, but for how much longer?  He was tiring in his prior start too, and he had 9 days of rest for that one too.  It might be another bullpen game with Bumgarner going 5, then get one inning from four relievers.

In any case, Hunter has had horrible starts all through the playoffs so far.  Don't really see him improving and suddenly performing well on the big World Series stage, when he could not do it on the smaller stages in less critical situations.  Meanwhile, Bumgarner appears to be an assassin with ice cold water going through his veins.  He's going to be a monster for us in the playoffs in future years, teamed up with Lincecum and Cain.  I would have to say that the Giants chances are good for winning the game and getting to 3-1.  But, as the saying goes, that's why they play the games, you just never know.

Go Giants!

Your 2010 Giants are 2-0 in the World Series: Walking to Texas, Rangers

Wow, that was a nail-biter up until the fateful bottom of the 8th with two outs, then came the most improbable offensive sequence I've ever experienced (and I've experienced comebacks from the 70's to today).  To all those who complained about Sabean getting experienced veterans and Bochy playing experienced veterans:  this is why you get them, so that you don't have to go to your young inexperienced players with the game on the line like the Rangers did (had to?) with Derek Holland and Mark Lowe, and then watch the game get out of hand like that, so quickly (really, it took 12 balls mixed with one strike for Washington to figure out that Holland didn't have it?).

Matt Cain, wow, what a great gutsy game, what a great performance during the playoffs.  I have received or seen many statements/questions regarding Matt Cain over the years:

• Trade Matt Cain, he's a loser
• Trade Matt Cain for Alex Rios
• Trade Matt Cain for Prince Fielder
• We have Lincecum, why not trade Matt Cain
• Martin, when do we have enough pitchers to start trading them for hitters

I think most can now see why we kept Matt Cain.  With this performance he has joined a small group (now 5) of pitchers in MLB history who have pitched 20 or more innings during the playoffs and not given up an earned run (ExtraBaggs).  Among them are other Giants:  Christy Mathewson (Big 6) in 1905 World Series and Carl Hubbell (King Carl) in 1933 World Series.  It was also tweeted by Jeff Fletcher (and reported by Baggerly) that Cain is just one of four pitchers in the majors today with 200+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons.  The others are Dan Haren, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay.

Incredibly, he's only 26 YO and yet is the longest tenured Giants player, loves being a Giant (he never had a childhood team), his wife is from here, they have a home here, and we have him signed to 2012.  Hopefully we can get him signed for 2013-15 too, this off season, but probably not until we get to one year left.  But not that I'm worried that he would leave us, just more worried that he might price himself out of our budget.

And I made a mistake in wanting to start Matt Cain in game 1 and Lincecum in game 2, in order to give Lincecum another day of rest.  I see that now, clearly.  Just think of the scenarios, considering that Lincecum has a history of being too amped up in new pressure situations.  If he does well enough and the Giants defeat Lee, then great, but if Lincecum should lose to Lee - and there was a strong possibility of that given how good Lee had been previously - we would have steady, ice in veins Matt Cain starting in game 2 to tie up the series.   If it had been reversed as I had wanted, should Lee outduel Cain in game 1 and the Giants lose, then we have Lincecum up in game 2, and we would be unsure whether he'll be ready or if he'll be amped up (looking at his game 1 results, he was amped up).  Bochy did the right thing starting Lincecum first, then going with Cain.  Another in a long line of good decisions by Bochy that I've been trying to illuminate here.

Edgar Renteria sure came through tonight.  His homer gave Cain the lead the Giants would never relinquish.  His hit in the 8th made the game out of reach, a laugher.  His offense won the game for the Giants today, and his defense again was good.  He has found his fountain of youth here in the World Series, the playoffs really, and if this is it for him, he is going out with a big bang.  Should the Giants be fortunate enough to win the World Series, I would say that Edgar earned his $18M contract with what he has done in the playoffs.

And, as it apparently is in these playoffs, Co-Dy! again delivers, this time scoring two runs while getting on base three times.  And in this World Series, Uribe again delivers, a key single to put the Giants up 2-0, then a key walk (of all things) to drive in another run.  He's done enough to be the MVP so far, but Renteria probably is closest to that right now.  Really, as it has been all year, all playoffs, it is the team that is the MVP, each game had another player chip in something critical to win the game, whether a hit, walk, or great catch/play, or a great pitch.

Game 3:  Colby Lewis vs. Sanchez

Obviously, great position for the Giants, and that sets up Sanchez to have a great game.  Sanchez, in his first two starts early in the series, pitched two 5 PQS games, great DOM starts.  He obviously faltered in his third start, but that was a must win game for the Giants really (which again Bochy nailed it, and managed like it; must win because didn't want to get to elimination game in game 7 in Philly) and when he was amped (innings 1 and 3) he was horrible, but when he had calmed down (inning 2), he was fine, shut them down 1-2-3.  This game, being early and the Giants up 2-0, is not a must win, but probably needs to be managed like it is because if they lose, its 2-1 and Rangers back in it, but if they win, it's 3-0 and Giants can smell the champagne.

Still, as far as Sanchez is concerned, there will be minimal pressure, relatively, other than it is his first World Series and it will be in hostile environs.   He will probably be jittery in the first inning, but Posey will settle him down for the rest of his start.  He should be OK, as long as he don't feel like he HAS to win the game.

Meanwhile, Lewis is in the must win, of all must wins (see below on teams up 2-0 for why).  The thing is that he did well in a similar situation, at home, in game 6 vs. the Yankees.  Not must win, true, but like the Giants, if you lose, then you are back to 3-3 and need to fight for it in game 7.  So not a true must win, but pretty close.  He also pitched very well down the stretch, he had a great September after a so-so August.  He did not, however, pitch that well in his first two playoff starts; he was OK though, both were 3 PQS starts.  He was not as dominating at home as on the road, but he was still good, better than Sanchez.

But that's over a season, and now we have a Sanchez who has been dominating since late August vs. a Lewis who has been dominating since late August too.  Should be a great game, tough game (though game 1 should have been that, and game 2 was until bottom of 8th, and the Giants supposedly had no offense).  Have to give slight edge to Texas for being home team and for Lewis being better over the whole season, but basically I would say it is a coin-flip.

PQS Shows Giants Fading

However, a bad trend is that the Giants' starters have been fading in terms of performance since game 4 of the NLCS.  The first 7 playoff starts by the Giants were DOM starts (either 4 or 5 PQS), but since then, three have been DIS starts (0 or 1 PQS) and only one (Lincecum in game 5) was a DOM (Cain last night did not earn a DOM start, he did not strike out enough guys; though he would have earned one more point if he had given up one less walk).

And now in two games against Texas, we have had two non-DOM starts in SF, and now we have three games in hitter-happy Texas, one of the worse hitter-skewed parks in the majors, up there with Colorado.  Sanchez will have to step up big time to win there, but he has the stuff to do it, that is why he is starting there, he strikes out a lot, and the less balls in play, the better the results.

Giants Thoughts

The series is not over yet, not by a long shot.  Most teams up 2-0 do end up winning, but a good portion of them go on to lose too (The Hardball Times had a great article researching teams up 2-0 and what happened afterward).  In fact, most 2-0 teams that end up losing game 3, basically it is a whole new start to the series, for the most part, for the down team (down team 11-16 in series after winning third game, so it is still good for up team, just not like winning game 3).  For the up team to ensure winning the World Series, they pretty much need to win game 3 (hence why I said what I said above for Colby Lewis).

Though if the rumor I've seen is correct that the Rangers are not going to pitch Lee on short rest (that is, reportedly, he has refused to pitch on short rest), that means Hunter is pitching game 4, which should give us the advantage there and thus not as imperative to win game 3.

As long as Sanchez approaches this as a gimme start since we are up 2-0, I think he'll be OK.  If someone is quoting him these stats on 2-0 teams, he's probably going to be very amped up, and he might still be anyway, it is the World Series.  But given his prior playoff starts and his clincher over SD on last day, I would bet that he'll be OK eventually and the damage will be minimal, at worse.  He probably wouldn't have lasted only 2 IP in that last start if he didn't get on base and get his adrenaline going.  It will be fascinating to see how he handles things, remember, when he is on, he has no-hit double-digit K ability.

The good thing is that the Giants offense has put it in the heads of the Texas pitchers that they should ignore what they might have been told about their offense.  If you give up runners, the Giants will scratch and claw their way to score a run.  This is really nothing new, they were like that during the season too, either scoring a little or a lot, depending on how many of the guys were hot hitters.  The offense is clearly something to be worried about.

Plus, Texas' homepark favors RH batters, and Sanchez, Posey, Burrell, Ross, and Uribe are RHB.  Plus Aubrey Huff has hit well in their park before:

I	Split	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
	TEX-AmeriquestFd	150	132	37	4	6	23	3	0	15	11	.280	.353	.447	.800	.265

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2010.

And if you'll notice, his BABIP there is low, lower than his career .293 BABIP, suggesting he might be due for better hitting there.  True, the ballpark hurts LH batter's batting average but not to such a large degree, only slightly.

Still, Lewis could deliver a gem and make it a very tough game to win.  But the Giants have seemed to specialize in winning these types of tough games during the season and now during the playoffs.  And particularly if they can get into the bullpen early by taking pitches against Lewis, it won't matter if Lewis pitches a great game if the bullpen blows it for them after he is taken out.

And the bullpen has to be shaken that the Giants have beaten them up like that, and so easily and so much.  That is probably where the Giants are able to pull out their wins the most during this year, when it becomes a battle of the bullpens.  And Washington did not catch on that it was critical in the 8th to bring in Perez before the Giants scored any more runs, something that Bochy would have done, knowing that the closer would have Friday to rest his arm, at minimum, so bullpen management is not a forte of his or his coaching staff (and clearly not sabers, who would know this saber-theory on closer usage when leverage is highest).

Lineup In Texas:  What and Who DH's?

The lineup will probably will be the same order for the most part but Huff will take his spot batting 3rd back and push everyone down one spot.  Sandoval might be a DH, Ishikawa too, with two RHP coming up next.  I would think they would go with Sandoval in game 3 to see how he does, and if he hits well, he'll get game 4, else Ishikawa would get game 4.  In any case, whoever is DH is probably batting 8th or 9th, unless the Giants instead start Sandoval at 1B and DH Huff instead.

I hope the Giants do that.  Huff has DH before and handled it well, he hit basically his career batting line.  Some people can't handle DH-ing, as Burrell showed.  The World Series is not a place to experiment and find out if Sandoval or Ishikawa can DH.  Use the guy who has shown that he can handle it well, use Huff as DH.

Breaking news is that Pablo is the DH.  Thinking more about it, probably no difference defense-wise between the two, but could be big difference offensively if Sandoval struggles with the role, as Burrell did.  Not all players take to DH-ing, some struggle with sitting around in-between innings and staying ready.

But with Lewis pitching, it might have been better to go with the defensive upgrade with Ishikawa at 1B and Huff at DH, now that I'm thinking more about it.  People don't think much of Ishikawa, but he's an OK hitter overall (just not good compared to other 1B; but his defense makes huge difference, I think) and think he would be OK starting.  We will see how this works out, but I think the better move, if you are using Sandoval, is to start him at 1B and Huff at DH.

For game 5, if there is one, I would still DH Huff and use Sandoval at 1B, even though it is a LHP Cliff Lee.  Ideally, probably would play Burrell at 1B and use Rowand in the OF, but Burrell has not played at 1B in a long time and undoubtedly is not that great defensively there either, while Sandoval was OK defensively playing there last season.  In any case, Huff should be DH the whole series, and see who sticks at 1B, just because he's familiar with and comfortable with DHing.  .

Other Thoughts

With the two wins, the Giants ensure that Texas cannot clinch in Texas, if they come back, then the series would return to SF.  The Giants could win in Texas, but if they return back here, they will be in MUST WIN situations for every game in SF.   Hopefully the Giants close it down in Texas and we don't have to return home for games.

That is the ideal situation, and would require them to win 2 of 3 in Texas.  Remember, the Giants have not lost any series, home or road, in the playoffs so far, and I think only twice in the past two months, since the end of August (Milwaukee and San Diego), out of 15 home and road series.  They have been tested every which way for two months now, taking on good pitchers and average, and are 29-14 since then (29-13 in the Red Thong era;  will Huff continue wearing this next season or will it have lost its mojo?).  That is basically a win two out of three streak, which is what they need to do in Texas.  Last road series they lost was on August 22nd, over two months ago.