Sunday, October 28, 2012

Your 2012 Giants: Game 4 of the World Series

Wow, again, the epicness continues.  Ryan Vogelsong with his shutout performance continued some epic threads which I'll include in the comments when I have more time.  Suffice to say that Vogelsong, Lincecum, Romo's shutout of the Tigers was another Epic occurrence in these playoffs, this season.  Tim Lincecum has been totally dominant as a reliever in these playoffs, shutting down the other team when they might rise up, bridging the starter and the closer, getting the Giants that much closer.

And that is what has been missing from the media:  pitching wins in the playoffs.  The talk was all about the Tiger's mighty hitters, but nothing about the Giants shutdown pitchers.  As my research has shown, when pitchers dominate, that team normally wins.  Ironically, Anibal had a 5 PQS DOM start and Vogelsong didn't, only a 2 PQS, would have been 3 if he pitched one more out, so the Tigers actually had a better pitched game, but sometimes pitchers can will themselves to a win.  Vogie certainly did in this game.

3-0.  No team has ever come back from that, most end in 4 games, a handful to 5 games, but pretty much done.  Psychologically, that makes sense, but then again the Giants beat that TWICE already in the playoffs, first against the Reds, then the Cards, so the question is:  Do the Tigers have a Hunter amongst them who can rise them up and do the improbable?  From the media, I don't see anyone talking brave like the Giants did in the face of the impossible.  So I would say no, but you never no.  But I don't have anybody else I would want starting this game but Cainer.

Game 4:  Cain vs. Scherzer
Matt Cain: The Giants ace pitched like one in Game 7 of the NLCS, tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings. After not allowing an earned run in the 2010 postseason, Game 7 was Cain's first scoreless appearance this year. He has a career 1.83 ERA in the playoffs.
Max Scherzer: The Tigers have scheduled Scherzer this postseason with at least a little caution for his right arm; he is working his way back from a deltoid strain. His 10 K's over 5 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALCS suggests he's well on his way to full strength.
Cain has never faced Detroit ever, either at home or on the road.  For his career, he has been a bit worse on the road in his career, 3.61 ERA vs. 2.98,  but he has been much better the past 4 seasons, as he has methodically gotten better over time in one area or another, and had a 3.24 ERA on the road in the last four seasons.  He has been almost equally good against hitters:  .222/.286/.360/.646 vs. RHB; .231/.304/.363/.667 vs. LHB.

He has faced a number of hitters before, since they came from NL teams or another AL team he has faced.  Fielder has done well against Cain for his career, though poor by Fielder standards:  .278/.364/.389/.753 with no homers in 22 PA.  Infante is the only other to have extensive PAs:  .333/.364/.333/.697 with no extra-base hits in 22 PA, only 2 K's.  Cabrera is 1 for 6 but that one is a homer, plus 2 K's.  Peralta was 1 for 3 (double) with 2 K's.

Overall, Detroit RHB hit RHP .274/.322/.441/.763 and RHB hit RHP .275/.354/.427/.780.  So they hit RHP pretty well, which is why they have such a good record against RHP, 62-49.  Plus they have played well at home, 50-31, averaging 4.85 runs per game there.   So Cain could have a tough time in Detroit, despite it being considered a pitcher's park, as apparently their offense is built to succeed there.

Cain has had a tough time with Brian O'Nora behind the plate, but that appears to randomness there, as while he has a 4.50 ERA in 4 starts, in 26.0 IP, he has given up only 23 hits and 5 walks, while striking out 24.  His only real blemish is the 3 homers, which is a lot for him in that many innings, about double, maybe triple what he normally does.  And I would guess that they had men on base in each case.

Scherzer had a breakout year this season, pushing his K/BB from 3-ish to 3.85 and his K/9 from 9-ish (and dropping each year) to a league leading 11.1 K/9.  Somehow he put it all together this season.

He has faced the Giants 4 times, one in SF, the other three at home, two in AZ, one in Detroit.  He has a career 5.12 ERA in 4 starts, but had 20 K's to 10 BB's for a good 2.0 K/BB, only 17 hits (but high walks) but the key there is the 3 homers given up.  In 2011, in Detroit, in only 2.0 IP, he gave up 6 hits and 3 walks, with only 2 strikeouts, for 9 runs, 6 earned, with 2 homers.  Truly horrible start.  So the career numbers will be skewed unfairly by this.

But not all are from his Giants past.  He has faced Scutaro the most and Marco has hit him well in 10 PA:  .444/.444/.444/.889, 4 for 9, 1 K.  Sandoval was only 2 for 8 with 4 K's but 1 homer.  Blanco 3 for 5, double.  Theriot 1 for 2 with HBP.  Crawford 1 for 1, homer plus walk.  Huff 1 for 2, double.  Pence 1 for 6, double, 4 K's.  Pagan 0 for 3, SF, 2 K's.  So some success, some dominated by Max.

Probably best to look at his career stats, as expecting to blow him out in Detroit is not realistic.  He has done better at home than on the road:  3.62 ERA at home, 4.15 ERA on the road.  He likes Detroit even more:  he has a 3.45 ERA in Comerica Park, with a 3.46 K/BB and 9.0 K/9.

Here is his weakness.  He has dominated RHB, but his weakness is LHB (so perhaps that is how SF clobbered him):  232/.288/.382/.670 vs. RHB but .273/.346/.440/.786 vs. LHB.  As I've been discussing throughout this World Series, the Giants have a lot of lefty hitters plus two RH hitters, Posey and Pence, who hit RHP relatively well.  He has never had Brian O'Nora behind the plate.

ogc thoughts

Hard to call the game.  Some suggest tight, close game, some suggest someone is going to get blown up.  Generally, though, Scherzer has a much harder time against LHB, suggesting that the Giants should be able to score on him in this game.  The question then becomes, does Cain give up more?

Cain during this career has done very well, in almost any circumstances.  Now he is pitching in what is considered a pitcher's park.  One should expect him to do well here.  But Detroit eats up RHP, and especially in Comerica Park, it seems.  This is the hard rock against an incredible force, and something will have to give.

But given how the Giants pitchers have been able to shut down Detroit's hitters and how the two parks play a lot like each other, including inducing a lot more triples and less homers by LHB, I have to think that Cain will be able to do enough in this game to win it, even though Detroit has home advantage and has killed RHP this season, plus has done well against winning teams, 40-34.

Have to give the edge to the Giants.  Scherzer just cannot shut down LHB, and we have a lot of them.  Why other teams don't overload on LHB when he's pitching is beyond me, but that's the key to beating him, I think.  And we got them:  Pagan, Sandoval, Belt, Blanco, Crawfard, plus Sanchez (assuming he DH's again).

And with a 3-0 lead, they have to be tight, making it that much easier for the loose Giants to win.  I think we'll sweep.

Go Giants!  

8 comments:

  1. I understand what you're trying to say, but the Giants were never down 3 to 0.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm sorry I confused you but I assumed everyone knew that the Tigers were down 3-0.

      I was trying to make the point that no team has ever come back against 3-0, but as the Giants showed in their Reds and Cards series, they did nothing that was done before too, so you never know, maybe the Tigers might do the impossible. I was trying to extend that much caution about assuming the Giants had won it all, they could still lose.

      Delete
    2. You said that "the Giants beat that TWICE" - referring to being down 3 to 0, when in reality they were down 2 to 1 and 3 to 1, not 3 to 0.

      They were never down 3 games, they were never on the verge of being swept.

      But as I noted, I understood what you intended to say.

      Delete
    3. Again, I assumed that everyone understood that the Giants were on the verge of elimination TWICE, just like the Tigers were, needing to win every game left to play in the series. I thought that was a connection that my readers could make. I was apparently wrong.

      So you were right, I was not clear enough, my assumption was not right. I will be sure to spell things out more clearly in the future.

      Delete
  2. Now THAT was a run. The Giants. 2012 World Series Champions. Feels good.


    Take a bow, OGC, take a bow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No bow for me, I will stand with you, clapping for the 2012 World Champions Giants.

      Go Giants!

      Delete
  3. What a great team and great season. Posey's MVP year, Cain's perfect game, Pence's genuine enthusiasm, Scutaro's rock-solid professionalism, Romo's genuineness and untouchable cutter. You could go up and down the lineup listing the contributions. That's a team. That's our team.

    I loved our teams when I was kid from Mays, McCovey, Bonds, Tito Fuentes and Chris Speier, to Chili Davis, Will the Thrill, all the way to Barry Bonds, and this year's team has been as exciting and fun to me as all those team's during my youth.

    Congratulations Giants! Congratulations Giants fans!

    OGC, thank you for adding to this year's fun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comment, glad you enjoyed my writing.

      Great comments, there was so much to comment regarding the Giants this season, no one post, no one comment could capture all of the glory that was the 2012 World Championship season.

      That's roughly my fan-span, I started with Speier, and all the players you noted, I would throw out there The Count, Jack The Ripper, and Matty Williams (just realized that there are so many Matty's in Giants history, Mathewson, Williams, and now Cain), heck, I'll even throw in King Kong Kingman, my first rookie phenom.

      As much as I've loved all those players, nothing, for me, has been as exciting and fun as the 2010 and 2012 teams. And I would dare to say that this season was as close to amazing as 2010's which, again for me, was the best since it was the first, with the shock and awe and realization that finally we got there, but still, this season has been almost equally amazing due to all the obstacles they had to surpass, just in the playoffs, first with the Reds, needing to win 3 on the road, then with the Cards, needing to win 3 again, then sweeping the mighty Tigers, who really did have a team that is normally good enough to win the World Series, and yet these Giants swept them. I look forward to further amazing feats from this Posey-led team.

      Posey is the Will the Thrill of this generation, except that he is not as bombastic and excitable. He is the quiet leader who says "Why not us? Why not now?"

      And I get the irony that a man eligible for AARP is in total awe of a 25 year old, but I don't really care, he is just amazing and we are so, so, so lucky that none of the teams ahead of us selected Posey instead of the players that they got instead. I'm still amazed that Tampa didn't pick him, and I'm still thankful. Like the Giants brain trust - John Barr was interviewed recently and noted again that Posey was who they wanted - I wanted Posey, not that I knew he would do all this, but still, he was who I wanted.

      Many Naysayers just attribute that to luck and don't give Sabean and his team the proper and due respect for being able to see that Posey was the right player to select. He was not the no-brainer: the Giants could have decided that he wanted too much. Plus, many of the Naysayers felt that the better player to select was Smoak. Thank GOD they weren't the GM!

      Delete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (10) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (49) 2014 season (13) 2015 season (1) 25 man roster (7) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (4) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (1) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A's (6) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) Adalberto Mejia (4) Adam Duvall (2) AFL (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (5) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Susac (5) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (10) Angel Villalona (29) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (1) Arbitration (12) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Award (4) BABIP (2) Barry Bonds (28) Barry Zito (77) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (2) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (5) Baseball Study (14) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (6) bench players (1) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (7) Bill Hall (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (2) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (38) Brandon Crawford (18) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (1) Brett Bochy (2) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (41) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (2) Bruce Bochy (22) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (1) Bullpen (21) Bumgarner (1) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (91) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (2) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (8) Career Prospects (3) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) catcher injury (4) catching (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (2) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (2) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (8) Christian Arroyo (3) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (5) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (7) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (1) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (22) contender (1) contract negotiations (1) contract signing (4) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (14) D-gers (31) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (16) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (10) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Derek Law (4) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (1) Dirty (1) DL (1) dodgers (6) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (3) Draft Analysis (8) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) DRS (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (14) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Eugenio Velez (12) extension (6) fanfest (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (1) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (3) Free agent possibilities (17) Free agent signing (4) Free agent signings (21) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (22) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (3) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants (1) Giants blogs (2) Giants Chat (3) Giants Draft (7) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (29) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (62) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (2) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (4) Giants Offense (21) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Strategy (34) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) good will (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (12) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (3) Hall of Fame (7) Hall of Shame (3) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (9) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (15) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (19) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (1) Idea (4) improvement (1) Indictment (1) injury (2) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (3) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (2) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jake Dunning (1) Jake Peavy (3) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (5) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (2) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (10) Jeremy Shelley (1) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Joaquin Arias (9) Joe Panik (10) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Bowker (22) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (48) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (3) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (5) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Just Say No (1) Kendry Flores (1) Keury Mella (1) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (10) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (1) Lineup position (1) Long-Term Contract (21) long-term planning (3) luck (1) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Mac Williamson (5) Madison Bumgarner (123) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (2) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (11) Mark DeRosa (8) Martin Agosta (6) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (124) Matt Downs (2) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (15) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (4) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (6) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (1) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (6) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (4) MVP (1) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Nick Noonan (26) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (21) NL West Division Title (16) NL West Future (1) NLCS (15) NLCS MVP (1) NLDS (7) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (1) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (1) Opening Day (4) opening day pitcher (1) opening day roster (3) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (87) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (8) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phillies (7) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (14) Pitching Rotation (55) pitching staff (1) plate discipline (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (25) playoff roster (1) playoff rotation (3) Playoff Success (18) Playoffs (26) postmortem (1) PQS (67) press conference (1) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (4) projection (2) promotion (1) prospect (2) prospect analysis (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (42) questions (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (9) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) ROY (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (67) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (4) Sabermetric Thoughts (5) sabermetrics (3) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (8) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) Sergio Romo (13) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (12) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) Spring Training (15) standings (1) starting lineup (14) starting pitching (49) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steroids (5) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (18) Tim Lincecum (160) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (9) Trade Analysis (15) Trade Idea (7) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (28) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (40) turning point (1) Ty Blach (2) Tyler Beede (2) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) Winter League (1) World Series (18) World Series Champions (10) WS Ring Bling (1) Yusmeiro Petit (21) Zack Wheeler (9)