Friday, October 19, 2012

Your 2012 Giants: Game 6 of the NLCS

Wow, now that was ALL-TIME EPICNESS!  Barry Zito going 7.2 shutout innings, racking up a 5 PQS DOM start for us, the first in the playoffs for the Giants, and it was Zeets delivering!  That is a huge paydown on what he has owed us from his big contract, and it was so exciting listening to the game.  What an epic start!  I think that was his first 5 PQS start since the 2003 playoffs, almost ten years later.

And Brandon Crawford delivered another key hit for us.  True, it was not the first and winning run, but at that point, a 1-0 lead is nothing against their tough team, but his working the count and getting the pitch he wanted extended the lead to a more sturdy 3-0 and allowed Zito - who had his FIRST EVER bunt single in his career - drive in another run, for a strong 4-0 lead, given how Zito was pitching.  After that, Zito was 3 up and 3 downing them.  Crawford has shown a lot in these playoffs, that is one clear lesson of these playoffs, he's going to be a guy we can rely on in tough situations, offensively as well as defensively.  Thank goodness he had that down Junior year, else another team would have drafted him in the first round, as he was projected to go, instead of back in the 4th round where the Giants got him.

And Sandoval's homer - second in two games - sealed the deal at 5-0.  I can't believe I saw some people want to sit Sandoval down in order to play Arias.

As a contrast in managerial style, a couple of years ago, in the same situation, Bochy told his team not to pack just in case and they won.  In this game, Matheny told his team to pack just in case they needed to get to SF.  That might have subconsciously affected the team - the manager isn't confident that we can beat Zito and the Giants and not have to travel back to SF.  Or maybe not, either way, we WON!!!

Game 6:  Carpenter vs. Vogelsong
Chris Carpenter: Carpenter will look to bounce back from a Game 2 loss, the second-shortest postseason outing of his career, when he takes the hill in Game 6, the Cards' second shot at closing out the Giants. Carpenter started the '11 NLDS and World Series clinchers.
Ryan Vogelsong:  Vogelsong's lack of postseason experience hasn't seemed to affect him through his first two playoff starts. After allowing one run in five innings in his lone NLDS start, Vogelsong allowed just one run over seven innings in Game 2 against the Cards.
Here is what I wrote last time:
Carpenter is amazing, coming back from missing all that time with his injury, then after mid-season surgery.  And all at 37 YO.  He worked his way up too.  He had a 3 PQS but probably could have had a 4 if he could have went one more inning, he appeared to have been capped as to pitch count.  Then he had two DOM starts to end the season.  He had a 1 PQS disaster start in the playoffs, but was able to stop the damage and ended up with a shutout in 5.2 IP against the Nationals, and one more out would have made it a 2 PQS start.  And he has been great in his career, so he looks to be a tough pitcher to hit against. 
He has two starts, but long ago, 2004 and 2009, against the Giants.  But Pence has faced him a lot with the Astros.  Huff and Theriot too, but only Theriot has any success (a lot of success at that, .467/.500/.667/1.167), Pence and Huff were pretty much shut down (under .600 OPS).  Sandoval has done OK, in multiple games, .730 OPS.  The rest are just one game, presumably in St. Louis.  Posey, Belt, and Crawford did well.

He hasn't been as good in recent years as he was before, but he generally has shut down RHB and been hit OK (.272/.332/.426/.758) by LHB, and as noted before, we have a number of LHB in our lineup.  He has also done a little worse on the road than at home.  But he has been in a good groove since recovering from his surgery, and presumably his poor results were related to the physical problem that was fixed by the surgery.

Vogelsong had a good year, again, 65% DOM, only 13% DIS, so it should be a good battle in this game.   He has a bad history against the Cards, but more importantly for us, in the last two years, he has pretty much shut them down, 1 run in 5.0 IP in 2011, 0 run in 7.0 IP in 2012 (2 PQS and 3 PQS), shutting down the other team when he wasn't at his best.  He has done very well against RHP in the past two seasons, pretty good against LHP (low 700 OPS).  However, Beltran is a new guy and has done very well against Vogie, 1.319 OPS (including HR), also Jon Jay and Matt Carpenter had good success in limited exposure.  But he has mostly shut down the team, as his results the past two years show.
In the second game, Carpenter had a disaster start while Vogelsong had a DOM start and the Giants coasted to a 7-1 victory.  He has now had two DIS starts in a row in the playoffs for the Cards, while Vogelsong is the only starter for the Giants to throw two in a row.  He also ended the season on a row, with three, for a total of five now.

ogc thoughts

The Giants again look good for this rematch with a Cards pitcher.  Carpenter did not show anything in his last start, giving up 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings, with only one strikeout.  He only had 46 strikes in 76 pitches.  In the start against Washington, he shut them out, but still gave up 7 hits and 2 walks in 5.2 IP, with only 2 strikeouts.  He did better there, with 69 strikeouts in 106 pitches.  But as I noted, a DIS start sabermetrically.

In the Giants game, Pagan, Scutaro, and Belt had two hits each, Pagan had a homer and Belt a double.  Of course, there was a key error by Carpenter that allowed the game to get away from them there, as well, plus Holliday's error didn't help either.  He has done better at home, but if he's done already, or has hit a dead arm phase, he's doing his team a disservice starting, though, at this point, there is probably nobody else to turn to that is a good replacement, you have to cross your fingers and go with the usually better pitcher and hope for the best.

So it's hard to call the game.  I expect it to be a pretty close game, but it could open up if Carpenter is as lost this game as he was in his last game.  Vogie appears to be back on his rolls where he just dominates, like El Machino, churning out the DOM starts, giving us great pitched games over and over again.

For all the crap that some fans give the Giants for how they run their farm system, aren't you glad that they made the team environment so appealingly that Vogelsong would rather take a lesser job and opportunity with the Giants than have to sign with the D-gers?  I mean, can you imagine if he did what he did for LA the last two years instead of for us?  Who would have been our 5th pitcher, Hacker?  Petit?

One thing I want to point out is that the Giants pitching rotation is a very competitive bunch, and there seems to be a tendency for them to do poorly en masse, then do very well en masse.  Great example was in 2010, they were struggling through August, then one guy pitches well, then another, then it became this competition of anything you can do, I can do just as well.  Likewise, when one struggles, most of the other struggles as they TRY to be the one to bring up the group and get everyone going.  Zito's start could be the fuse that lights up our rotation for game 5 and 6, beyond what good starts Vogie and Cain did before.

I feel good about this start, make it so Vogie!

Come on Giants:  #Avenge1987

Go Giants!

9 comments:

  1. Great point about the packing instructions.

    Matheny may have also made a managing blunder when he underestimated Brandon Crawford and didn't bring in Eyechart to face him in the 4'th. On the other hand, 1-0 might have stood up in this game. The extra runs made it a lot easier, though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good point about facing Crawford, but that's a tough decision to do, given that Lynn has pitched well all season and also he was dominating the first three innings. If he did that, that would show very little confidence in the pitcher, facing a hitter like Crawford, who has no rep yet, not sure how Lynn comes back from that mentally with Matheny around.

      Delete
  2. I think getting on the board first is a huge factor in this game. Loosens up the team, fires up the crowd and puts more pressure on the cards hitters. Game 2 had the double whammy of matt hollidays take out of scutaro and then pagan jacked a ball to lead off the game, the crowd was insane!

    Pitching with purpose. Seen it from Timmy out of the pen. Saw it from zito on Friday. We expect it from vogey, but he can bs shaky early. Hope he can get good defensive efforts behind him and some calls from the ump. This is going to be a battle royale, and if Vogey gets in trouble bochy had best bs ready to turn it into a pen game.

    Pagan and scutaro and a hot panda! Yes! I'll admit I have been looking towards arias. Pablo steps up, that is all good. Win or lose tonight, just a great season of thrills. Go Gigantes!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You called it, hopefully the Giants pitching can keep the 5-0 (they should, but the Cards has come back from a 6-0 deficit before, so we'll see).

      And got a good number of defensive plays to help him out.

      I recalled someone else mentioning Arias for Panda, before his first homer game. Yes, Panda is stepping up and all is good.

      And yes, no matter what happens, it has been a great, epic season of thrills. Hopefully there are more to come.

      Delete
  3. You could see in game 2 where Carpenter was "Chris Carpenter" but he was very inconsistent with that. Dead arm? Not all the way back? I don't know, and there were times he was incredibly average. And the Giants jumped on that.

    Vogelsong was impressive. Almost the opposite, consistent and seemingly never rattled. I agree with Shankbone, the Giants don't let Carpenter off the hook, they win. He gets through 4-5 with no damage... could be a nailbiter.

    And Posey is going to start to hit. Right? Right? I mean, he has to eventually.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One would hope, but Posey actually hasn't really hit that well in either playoffs, to be frank. And as much as Pence has been struggling, he actually has better numbers than Posey right now in the NLCS. He has at least scored 3 runs, plus has a HR, while Posey got his first RBI in game 6 via a puny groundout.

      Vogelsong was impressive again. Can't say enough good words about him and his performances for us. He's been our MVP of the post-season, over the two series.

      Delete
  4. Game 7 coming! By the bay! This team, this team...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I know, I know!

      If people didn't know Ryan Vogelsong's name before, or worse, thought that he didn't deserve to be named to the All-Star game last year, they should know him now.

      WOW, what a big game pitched by Vogie, he totally came through for us, and if we should win game 7, he would have a strong case for MVP of the series, though Scutaro and Sandoval have to be up there too, but so far, I would give it to him.

      Go Giants!

      Delete
  5. I saw a point made by Vogelsong in a post-game interview that I've pointed out numerous times here and elsewhere: if Zito had not been DLed in 2011, the Vogelsong story might be still the same as the Eric Hacker story right now, AAA and looking for another team.

    Though, now that I'm thinking on it again, I should say that he most probably would still be here, doing this, at this point of his life.

    Given how well he was throwing in AAA, I have no doubts that the Giants would have sooner or later brought him up, first in relief, then when Dirty was having his last arm problems for us, that's when he would have made the starting rotation for good. There would have been no All-Star game selection, but still, he most probably would have won a rotation spot and been one of our starters in 2012, nonetheless, and doing what he has been doing for us in the playoffs, in this alternative universe/history.

    ReplyDelete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (10) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (76) 2014 season (16) 2015 Giants (2) 2015 season (1) 25 man roster (7) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (5) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (1) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A's (6) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (1) Adalberto Mejia (4) Adam Duvall (3) AFL (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (6) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Susac (5) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (10) Angel Villalona (29) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (1) Arbitration (12) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) assessment (1) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Award (4) BABIP (2) Barry Bonds (29) Barry Zito (77) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (2) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (5) Baseball Study (14) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (6) bench players (1) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (1) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (7) Bill Hall (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (2) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (38) Brandon Crawford (18) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (1) Brett Bochy (3) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (42) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (2) Bruce Bochy (23) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (1) Bullpen (23) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (93) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (3) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) catcher injury (4) catching (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (2) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (3) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (8) Christian Arroyo (3) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (5) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (7) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (1) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (1) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (22) contender (1) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (4) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (14) D-gers (31) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (16) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (10) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Derek Law (5) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (1) dictionary (1) Dirty (1) DL (1) dodgers (6) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (3) Draft Analysis (8) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) DRS (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (14) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (1) extension (6) fanfest (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (1) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (5) Free agent possibilities (17) Free agent signing (4) Free agent signings (21) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (23) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (3) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants (2) Giants blogs (2) Giants Chat (3) Giants Defense (1) Giants Draft (7) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (29) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (62) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (2) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (4) Giants Offense (23) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Pitching (1) Giants Strategy (34) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) good will (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (13) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (3) Hall of Fame (7) Hall of Shame (3) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (9) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (15) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (20) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (3) Idea (4) improvement (1) Indictment (1) injury (2) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (3) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (2) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jake Dunning (1) Jake Peavy (13) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (5) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) Jean Machi (1) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (11) Jeremy Shelley (1) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Joaquin Arias (9) Joe Panik (12) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Bowker (22) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (48) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (3) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (5) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Just Say No (1) Kendry Flores (1) Keury Mella (1) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (10) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (1) Lineup position (1) Long-Term Contract (21) long-term planning (3) luck (1) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Mac Williamson (5) Madison Bumgarner (137) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (3) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (11) Mark DeRosa (8) Martin Agosta (6) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (130) Matt Downs (2) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (15) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (4) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (9) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (1) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (6) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (4) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Nick Noonan (26) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (21) NL West Division Title (16) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (7) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (1) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (1) Opening Day (4) opening day pitcher (1) opening day roster (4) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (89) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (8) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phillies (7) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (14) Pitching Rotation (59) pitching staff (1) plate discipline (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (25) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (3) Playoff Success (18) Playoffs (33) postmortem (1) PQS (72) press conference (1) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (4) projection (2) promotion (1) prospect (2) prospect analysis (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (42) questions (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (9) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (76) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (4) Sabermetric Thoughts (5) sabermetrics (3) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (8) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) Sergio Romo (14) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (12) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) Spring Training (15) standings (1) starting lineup (14) starting pitching (54) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steroids (5) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (26) Tim Lincecum (167) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (9) Trade Analysis (15) Trade Idea (7) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (28) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (44) turning point (1) Ty Blach (2) Tyler Beede (2) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) Winter League (1) World Series (26) World Series Champions (11) WS Ring Bling (1) Yusmeiro Petit (26) Zack Wheeler (9)