Your 2018 Giants: Cha-cha-changes

As announced via media leaks and then officially by the Giants, there has been a number of changes in the front office and the field coaches.  Can't tell the players without a scorecard:

• David Bell:  the first official announcement was about the replacement of Shane Turner with former Giant David Bell, as the new Director of Player Personnel.  He's been working his way around and up, manage/coach for the Reds, Cubs 3rd base coach in 2013 (I think pre-new regime), Cards hitting coach/bench coach since.  Evans touted Bell's strong experience and broad breadth of various aspects of the game. He also noted, "A lot of the success we've had [in player development] has helped us produce championships at the big league level."
• Shane Turner:  He is now special assistant for pro scouting.  I think of these "special assistant" titles to be the equivalent of "producer" in entertainment, a title given to indicate some importance, but a title given so freely that it loses significance to outside people.  
• Dave Righetti:  In a shocking move, Rags is removed as our pitching coach, which he has been since 2000 under 3 different managers.  His 18 years tenure as pitching coach was a record for the Giants franchise.  He was moved into the front office and is now special assistant to GM Evans.  The article noted that Rags is not a scapegoat, as the Giants were 4th in the majors in quality starts, and a number of other pitching quality stats.  Evans noted a need for "a new voice" and that "Changes sometimes are needed as much for the sake of that new voice, if anything, and I think that was really the priority here. ... When you see all that these guys have accomplished together, it's very hard to make a change. But ultimately change can be for the good of both your staff and your players sometimes." Also: "This certainly is not going to eliminate Dave Righetti's voice in this organization. In some ways it may even enlarge his voice." And: "Dave's heartbeat is in uniform. But he also loves this organization and our players -- our pitchers, particularly. ... I'm sure it's still hard to imagine, even for us, Dave not being in uniform. But at the same time, there's so much that he can offer in this new role. I'm excited about it." Evans noted somewhere that he had actually approached Rags once the season ended, seeing if he would be interested in a more organizationally influential role.  Righetti was quoted in a later article (after declining to comment after the original announcement of his change) about the other staff changes that one of his new goals is ensuring that the organization's pitchers are taught consistent methods from Rookie Ball to the Majors, and that "After 38 years on the field as a player and coach, I'll be looking at things through a different lens. Working with Bobby and his baseball ops team in the front office, I'll be able to apply all those years of experience to help the team in new ways."
• Mark Gardner:  Gardner is removed as bullpen coach, which he has been since 2003.  He was also moved into the front office, and is now taking on a special assignment role in pitching evaluations.   
• Steve Decker:  Decker is removed as assistant hitting coach, which he was just assigned last season.  He is now special assistant in the baseball operations department.
• Ron Wotus:  The long time bench coach, part of the Giants MLB level coaches since 1998, has been moved to 3B coach, replacing Phil Nevins.  That was his position when he joined the Giants staff, so this is not a new position for him. From the article: "Wotus, who last coached third base regularly in 1998 when he joined the Giants' Major League staff, sounded excited and in no way considered his move a demotion. "I'm looking forward to being on the field again with the players and having more of an impact on our offensive game," said Wotus, who will continue to function as the team's defensive guru. "This is about putting a quality staff together. It's not about me personally. When you're needed somewhere, you go where you're needed. I'm looking forward to the challenge.""
• Phil Nevins:  We hardly knew ye, Phil, as the rotating 3B coach experience continues after Flan manned the position from the beginning of the Bochy era.  He was up for a manager position (but didn't get it), which is what he is angling for anyway, but didn't want to be re-assigned with this move, and instead left the organization.  
• Bam Bam Meulens:  Bam Bam is now the Bench Bench Coach, replacing Wotus.  From the article:  "As bench coach, Meulens, who has openly discussed his big league managerial aspirations since joining the Giants' staff in 2010, will be more involved in helping Bochy outline strategy."  Another step in the rung of duties teams look at when evaluating potential managers.  Hence why Wotus has been routinely on the list of interviewed coaches each off-season when teams are interviewing for open manager positions.  Of course, after a dozen years of interviews with no managerial job, that's not a good sign either.
• Matt Herges:   Another former Giants player rejoined the team, as he was named the new Bullpen Pitching coach.   He was our closer during parts of his time with the team, and has been involved with the Dodgers the past seven years, the last two as their AAA pitching coach.  It was noted that part of Matt Herges’ responsibilities include “series advance analysis," which involves using the computer.  Evans added that Herges was added because of his ability of making pitchers better, not because of his interest/knowledge in analytics.

As noted in one of the announcements, Jose Auguicil will retain his 1B coaching job and Shawon Dunston will retain his on-field instructor/replay analyst position.

Evans noted that:

"I'm not necessarily suggesting that guys who are leaving their positions are moving to more suitable roles. They're very talented baseball people, and I think that there are opportunities to advance their influence and also infuse new perspectives, new energy, new backgrounds into other roles in the organization. It's just part of what happens in organizations, how you keep things strong."

Also:

“Teams have to change to keep their edge in an industry as competitive as Major League Baseball. They have to constantly infuse new ideas and energy at every level of the organization, on the field and in the front office. This reorganization helps us enhance an already successful group of some of the best minds in baseball.”

And from the Chron article:

 "Last week, when the Giants reassigned coaches Dave Righetti, Mark Gardner and Steve Decker, Evans said he was interviewing candidates with analytics-driven ideas. On Thursday, Evans said the pitching-coach changes and emphasis on analytics shouldn’t be a reflection on the work of Righetti and Gardner, both of whom he said were engaged analytically."

Giants Should Hire Randy Johnson as Coach

There is a very nice article by Chris Haft on sfgiants.com about Randy Johnson's influence on the Giants 2009 team. Based on what's in there, we definitely should engage Johnson in adding him as a coach somewhere in our system, whatever works for what he wants to do in his after career.
Some interesting tidbits:

Johnson imparted much of his wisdom upon his brethren in San Francisco's
starting rotation, bestowing lessons they'll ideally draw upon throughout the
future.

And:

Johnson repeated last year that his competitive philosophy revolved around his preoccupation with winning, a healthy obsession that spurred him to win 303
games in his 22-year career. As Giants right-hander Matt Cain explained, Johnson's approach proved infectious.

"He really made an impact on us as a staff to try to lead this team to a victory," Cain said Wednesday, one day after Johnson announced his retirement. "And then the hitters [would] do the same thing. He kind of joined our staff together and motivated us, and I think that motivated the whole team. I feel like we clicked as a group a lot better than we have in the past."

And:

During his retirement conference call, Johnson expressed a desire to coach that stemmed from his interactions with teammates in recent seasons.

"The one thing I really enjoyed the last few years, for anybody who wants to listen, is help people," Johnson said.

And:

Each of San Francisco's starters absorbed Johnson's counsel.

Hearing Johnson urge him not to feel satisfied with success, Tim Lincecum won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award.

Thrilled to have such an eminent left-hander in his midst, Barry Zito performed with renewed focus as the Giants won 18 of his 33 starts.

"He's a Hall of Fame guy," Cain said of Johnson. "You want him to remember that you played your heart out with him. It's a great opportunity that we got to play with him, not just another face we played against. It was a lot of fun to be a teammate of his."

Jonathan Sanchez, who reminded Johnson of himself, crept closer toward gaining true consistency and scraped the ceiling of his skill by no-hitting San Diego on July 10. Sanchez, said Johnson, was "a lot like I was at a young age. He has everything there; he has to put it together."

And:

Cain himself might have been Johnson's sharpest pupil. They played catch together before Spring Training workouts, but Cain took more from Johnson than just hundreds of throws.

"We had a ton of sit-down conversations in spring," said Cain, who listened to Johnson discuss the essentials of developing sound preparation, maintaining intensity on the mound and taking nothing for granted.

Cain endured poor run support while posting a 15-30 mark in 2007-08. The Giants scored more often for Cain in 2009, but he seized upon his improved backing by avoiding the late-inning collapses that occasionally plagued him.

This was partly a product of Johnson's telling him that whether he found himself
in the first, fifth or ninth inning, each frame was important.

"It really helped me stay focused longer through the game and throughout the season," Cain said. Result: Cain won 12 of his first 14 decisions, finished 14-8 and made his first NL All-Star team.

And:

"When you actually saw him go out there and take that mentality to the field -- he wasn't just saying it, he believed in it and made you believe in it," Cain said.

And:

"I think we'll always think back to the mentality we took in every start," Cain said. "It improved me a lot."

Giants Thoughts

Hopefully the Giants management who attended the press conference where Johnson talked about all this pulled Randy aside afterward to talk about him taking on a coaching role with us when he is ready. I am afraid, however, that his home might be in Arizona, and given his long tenure there, both would point towards him working for them.

But as I noted in my post about his retirement, he should be studied for a chapter in The Giants Way manual on how a pitcher should operate and make that SOP (standard operating procedure) for every pitcher coming through the Giants system. And if he could be a coach in our system and teach what he knows, all the better.

Though, I don't know what is so revolutionary about Johnson telling Cain that "whether he found himself in the first, fifth or ninth inning, each frame was important." I (and many other baseball fans) could have told him that. It must have been in the way Johnson delivered it. :^)

Well, his stature in the game will certain give any advice he gives as coach that much more rigor and standing. Good luck to Randy, and I hope the Giants were one of the people listening to Randy when he spoke about wanting to help people. He mentioned in an interview that there will be nothing in life that will give him that feeling of competition like he felt when he was pitching, but there is the next best thing: being manager.

And in the meantime, maybe Randy can work on that chapter on pitching for us. :^)

New Baserunning Coach Preaching and Teaching

Roberto Kelly is the Giants new first base coach, after having great successful managing in the minors, leading Augusta the past three years. He is also in charge of outfield and baserunning instruction. At Augusta, the teams overachieved with pitchers without overpowering stuff and speedsters like Marcus Sanders, Eugenio Velez, Antoan Richardson, and Emmanuel Burriss, stealing a ton of buses.

Having fast players, it is usually hard to see what effect Kelly has on them, but Velez is a stark example of how well Kelly taught the players to be run-happy. When Eugenio was in the Blue Jay's system, he never stole more than 10 bases in any full season (he stole 28 bases in short season rookie DSL), his high was when he stole 7 (and was caught 5 times) in his last season in their system. He was a horrible base stealer. First season we got him, Kelly had Velez stealing 64 (!) bases with 81% success rate, which is above average and above the break-even rate for success rate (I've seen some state anywhere from 70-80% as the break-even point). He won the league's MVP award with that performance the season after his team gave up on him and we picked him up.

That is a huge transformation, all due to Kelly according to Velez. Velez swears by Kelly: "Everything I know right now, I learned from Roberto Kelly. He said, 'If a pitcher has a quick move, he'll give you something. Pay attention and you'll see it.' " Emmanuel Burris also had a positive comment as well, "There's a difference between a hard-working team and a team that wants to work hard. His teams want to work hard."

Those are clearly the attitudes the Giants are trying to instill for 2008 and beyond, for the players to work hard, to take the extra base. And it goes beyond just stealing bases, it affects all areas of baserunning in general which puts pressure on the opposing defenses, hopefully forcing errors. Taking extra bases, whether by stealing bases on stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples, will be the goal this season.

In addition, there is a bonus in that Kelly is a Spanish speaker and the first on the coaching staff since Alou was the manager and Luis Pujols was on the staff. This is important because the Giants have been making a concerted push in Latin America for talent and expects that talent to reach the majors soon. For example, Kelly has already been assisting Angel Villalona with both baseball issues and life in general.

Velez Playing Various Positions

Speaking of Eugenio Velez, Chris Haft of sfgiants.com just wrote on him in an interesting article. The Giants are moving ahead with trying to make him into a Chone Figgins uber-utility type of player who can essentially start but can start at a wide variety of different positions each day. They have been playing him at 2B, 3B, SS, and the OF. The 25 year old said - unsurprisingly - that he's willing to play anywhere in order to make the majors.

Velez's transformation was pretty stark, as noted above, and he credited his development to Roberto Kelly, his former Augusta manager and current Giants first base coach. "I try to put into play everything that I've learned from him," Velez said. Looks like he has done a great job of learning from Kelly, Velez was a nothing prospect when the Giants picked him up, and now he is on most Giants' Top 10 prospect lists and on the cusp of making the 25 man roster in the 2008 season with another good season, where he will probably play at AAA Fresno.

Giants Thought

Giants fans have been wondering how the Giants can run in 2008 when the roster is basically the same, slow, non-stealing crew from last season. Roberto Kelly's Augusta teams provides a template for what they could be like. Obviously players like Molina, Alfonzo, Aurilia, and Frandsen are not going to suddenly sprout wings and start stealing 10 bases a season. However, Roberts and Davis will set the tone up at the top of the order, and players like Winn, Lewis, Rowand, Ortmeier (he stole double-digits bases the past 5 seasons, all his full-season years), and Vizquel are capable of providing double-digit steal totals. Teams that force the issue like this on the base paths can pressure the defense into errors, mental or otherwise, that can lead to rallies.

Now, it won't transform the team into a serious contender, but that's not the point. The point is changing the attitudes of the players who are on the team and want to remain on the team (that is, remain in the majors and/or Giants). That is to show any future player the Giants seek to get that they are the right team to join (or so the Giants management's thinking goes).

As I and others have noted, the Giants as they are today isn't that far away from .500, they could even be there today if the pitchers can develop and progress as hoped while the offense hits as well as projections suggest, as I have shown with my Pythagorean calculations, Bill James projections, and lineup analysis. We can be one good trade, one good signing, or one good development away from being competitive (85+ wins) again.

Bill James Projections

I thought I would check out what Bill James projects for the Giants pitching staff. Using his numbers for Cain, Lowry, Correia, Zito, Wilson, Walker, Hennessey, Chulk, Kline, Sanchez, and Misch (I used CHONE for Lincecum since there was no projection for him), who are expected to comprise the pitching staff in 2008, I got an aggregate ERA of 3.82. Now, that could get worse as there is still another 120+ IP to account for, so either lesser pitchers will pitch those innings or the pitching staff above could be pushed hard and do more poorly.

Adding Randy Messenger, who would be the next logical pitcher to add, should the Giants expand to 12 pitchers, would raise the ERA to 3.88. Adding Jack Taschner, assuming pitchers will move up and down, would keep the ERA at 3.88, and bring the IP to about that of 2007.

That results in a runs allowed scenario of 4.20 runs per game. That is what the offense is expected to produce, based on Bill James projections for the offense and the lineup analyzer, resulting in an expected .500 team for the Giants in 2008.

Two Hitting Coaches Released

It has been reported (Chron) that hitting coach Joe Lefebvre and 1st base coach Willie Upshaw (who was also acting as a hitting coach) have been released by the Giants, though Lefebvre, who is Brian Sabean's old high school buddy, will be offered another position with the team (probably roving minor league hitting instructor :^), as was Upshaw (who was formerly the roving instructor, so maybe both will be roving now :^).

This move makes sense since the offense has been a problem the past few years, so you fire the guys who were in charge of that. Particularly, as the article suggests, both shared the same hitting philosophy. You would want to purge whatever is was that caused the poor hitting, and if both shared the same philosophy, both should go. But it would be very lame if they got a job as minor league hitting coaches in the farm system then, so I have to think that they get other jobs, HOPE that they get different jobs.

It would be interesting who they make as hitting instructor. That should give a hint as to the current hitting philosophy espoused by the team's management. Given all of Bochy's talk about small ball, I would think whoever they hire will be good at teaching that. I have no idea otherwise, just know that it would be interesting to see who they hire (Barry Bonds! :^). I wonder who Bochy's hitting coach was before with the 'Dres, could it be back to the future all over again, like his hiring of best bud Tim Flannery?

Ricky Henderson would have been an interesting choice as he could have been both hitting instructor as well as stealing instructor. But I think he's the Mets hitting coach right now, or at least some sort of coach. And he would be interesting, though whether he would be effective would be another thing. :^)

I've seen JT Snow mentioned as a possible candidate by some fans. I think he would be an interesting choice, based on how he was able to control the strike zone and get a lot of walks. But given that he was never able to figure out the park, he would be kind of useless then, wouldn't he, with our lefthanded hitters?

Jack Clark, I think, would also be an intersting choice. He might be able to instill in the hitters his "killer" instincts that earned him his nickname of Jack the Ripper. Plus he remembered when it was an huge thing to be an OF in the Giants farm system, the honor and the pride, and might be able to instill that in his young charges. However, I would be afraid of him taking said young hitters to local car dealerships and talking them into buying sportscars and asking for a ride. Bad news seems to follow him, so that would be the big risk there.

Hey, think Bochy could talk Tony Gwynn to take over batting coach duties? :^) Now THAT would be inspired! However, it would be unlikely, he seems happy coaching, plus could have done that with the 'Dres, HIS team for so long, when he retired and Bochy was manager, so why would he do that now?

That's all I can get out of this sleepy brain right now. I don't think most hitting coaches are that important to a team that he would make or break a season, though I would like to note that Ted Williams totally improved the team's offense after taking over as manager. Iconic batting coaches are few and far between, unfortunately. However, I think he can totally affect fans' expectations going into the 2008 season, after the failures of the past few years. And might be able to help out some of the hitters we have. So it will be interesting.