Living in the Shadow of Dan Ortmeier

Could not resist this title.  In one of his first interviews, as reported by Alex Pavlovic at his newspaper's blog,  Hunter Pence was told that he was not the first UT-Arlington alum to wear the Giants uni.  Pence then noted:

“Yeah, Daniel Ortmeier, I always knew of him because I was always in his shadow at UTA. I came right after him and played his position.”

Giants Thoughts

Wow, talk about two players who could not have two much different careers in the majors, but their college performances still gave some hint of that.

Their stats in their last college season are interesting (Pence; Ortmeier):

Ortmeier in his last college season, age 21, he hit .341/.395/.644/1.039 with 13 HR in 208 AB, .347 BABIP, 84.6% contact rate, 303 ISO in 2002.

Pence in his last college season, age 21, he hit .395/.441/.616/1.057 with 8 HR in 190 AB, .414 BABIP, 87.9% contact rate, 221 ISO in 2004.

Both were amazingly similar in OPS, but the other numbers showed the difference between the two.  Pence was clearly in the good contact rate, whereas Ortmeier was just short of the 85% minimum (and, of course, that is for the majors, so who knows what the minimum is for college) you want to see in the majors.  Ortmeier's BABIP was so good but Pence's BABIP was just so much better, showing how he made better contact than Ortmeier, as well as making contact more often.  Ortmeier was better in terms of HRs, monstrously better - 303 ISO vs. 221 ISO, which is still pretty good - but clearly, based on their careers, that didn't matter much.

From what I're read about Pence, he's kind of like in the mode of a Sandoval-type hitter, where he is very awkward, with his big body, and yet somehow he knows how to hit.  Maybe that can be a good role model for Belt to observe and get comfortable with his mechanics.

Now for A Completely Different Player

Different college leagues, but thought I would throw this out as well:

Gary Brown in his last college season, age 21, he hit .438/.468/.695/1.164 with 6 HR in 210 AB, .430 BABIP, 94.3% contact rate, 257 ISO in 2010.

There are many things I still like about Brown.  First and foremost has been his history of struggling in a league and figuring things out eventually.  He did that in Advanced A last season, mid-season, and after struggling for most of 2012, he has been stinging the ball the past month or so.  I also like the fact that he's not satisfied with just getting on base, just so that he can steal a base, he wants to hit for power as well.  Obviously drank from the pool of Ted Williams Science of Hitting philosophy.

And to those who say he didn't, because of his low walks, I would note that I examined the tradeoff between his batting line in his last season in college and, instead, changing 5 PA to 5 walks, and the value of hit hitting outweighted that of the five walks, meaning that he did the correct thing of hitting when the pitches were there for him to hit it well with contact.  And the ultimate thing a leadoff hitter should concentrate on is getting on base, and whether he's mastered a league or struggling mightily to buy a hit, he has always had a high OBP in any full season play, and he appears poised to do that again this year, despite his poor first two months of hitting.

I like that he is as fast as any left-handed hitter in getting to firstbase on a grounder, a testament to his speed because he is a right-handed hitter.  That means he has extra speed, making him elite.  I like that he took to CF easily and quickly, after playimg MI in high school, and with that speed he would be a good patroller of AT&T CF.   We need a good defensive player in CF because of Death Valley, but he's also shaping up to be a good offensive player, capable of actually being a good leadoff hitter for us.

Here is his progression by month (from FirstInning):

April:  .227/.330/.284/.614  .274 BABIP  57 ISO  50% GB 20% LD 30% FB .289 wOBA
May :  .258/.311/.317/.629  .300 BABIP  59 ISO  51% GB 17% LD 32% FB .284 wOBA
June :  .284/.355/.404/.759  .312 BABIP  120 ISO 41% GB 17% LD 42% FB .340 wOBA
July  :  .355/.386/.573/.959  .392 BABIP  218 ISO 37% GB 24% LD 39% FB .403 wOBA

As you can see, struggled first two months, but in June, starting hitting more flyballs than ground balls, and putting up a good month offensively, boosting his batting overall, then really started bashing the balls in July, pushing his offense into the elite range.   He should make AAA next season and, if Blanco falters as the CF during the season at any point, he probably will get the call up and see how he does.  Otherwise, 2014 looks like when he'll likely get elevated to the majors for extended time.

All I've Been Saying, Is Give Ort a Chance

"Everybody's talking 'bout Leone, and McClain, and Rajai, and bye-bye,
All I've been saying, is Give Ort a Chance."

With apologies to John Lennon, Ortmeier over the past season or so, with mainly sporatic play, except for a nice stint of starts late in 2007, has hit about .816 OPS or so (roughly), with a homer every 34 AB (or roughly 20 HR in a full season). Lot of people want to point out his spotty minor league career, and rightfully so, but the way I feel is that if he is hitting in the majors, let him play until the other teams figure him out, particularly since we have no other player at 1B proving to be a consistent 800 OPS hitter.

Thus far, they have not figured him out yet over about a year period. Maybe they will once he plays regularly, but how long does he have to excel with sporadic play (and at 800 OPS, that is excelling by Giants hitters standards and average to above average for the majors) before he gets a full-time try? 800 OPS is average or above average at the positions he can play, LF and 1B. Lewis has earned the LF starting position with his great play so far, so that leaves 1B. He should be starting at 1B most games and Aurilia should either take over 3B or share it with Castillo until either Ortmeier is exposed or both of the others are hitting, like, 900 OPS.

Also, Ortmeier was credited with a fine fielding play today in support of Lincecum's gem of a game, so it looks like his fielding is coming around as well. Some had speculated that his poor offensive start was due to the pressures of figuring out how to field at 1B. So I would note here that this shows that he has some solid cojones (something Lindenberger never showed) that he could stand the pressure of adding duties and not let it crush him in the long run, he adjusted and appears to be returning to his fine hitting form from last season, in fact, he's doing a lot better in taking walks, though has lost some HR power.

He should be starting at 1B and Aurilia at 3B as long as Castillo lingers around the high 600/low 700 OPS range, even his 4 for 4 today leaves him at a meager .732 OPS (though Feliz was even more meager at .708).

Another way to look at it is ask yourself if Barry Bonds would play him, and if so, why argue with the best hitter of the last generation? He took time out to help Ortmeier very publicly. Sure, it was a photo-op to make him look good, but still, do you think Bonds would deign to tutor just anyone? Does anyone really think that Bonds would waste his time tutoring someone whose abilities he did not respect? So that, to me, is another sign that we should be playing Ortmeier somewhere, Barry Bonds would not just help anyone out just for a photo-op, he would want to be shown to have good judgement of talent, he has that big an ego that he won't be associated with just anyone.

And a Hard-Boiled Burriss

And the Giants should start playing Burriss at 3B and see how he does there, in order to open up more opportunities for him, just like how he's getting play at 2B right now after starting only at SS in the pros for the most part. Here he is, he was thoroughly overmatched in Advanced A last season, but then had a nice run in the Sally League (A-ball) before doing well in the AFL, and after 44 major league AB he only has 2, count them, two, strikeouts. That's a strikeout every 22 AB, or about 30 in a full season. That's about half of what the best hitters strikeout, a quarter of those wild swingers. That is a superlative contact rate.

Now I doubt he will continue at such a great rate, small samples and all, but if someone is doing that well, you have to find a way to get him in the lineup and see what he can do. That's hitting like a Juan Pierre, little walks but little strikeouts, and lots of balls in play, and while that's not great, certainly not $9M per season for 5 seasons great that Pierre got, but that's a complementary hitter that the Giants lineup can use, particularly with his speed as well. Studies have shown that the top contact hitters can sustain batting averages at and above .300.

Unfortunately, when you walk that little, it also means that you have a horrible OBP and as the old saying goes, even if you have great speed, you can't steal firstbase (though technically, if you can become a great bunter, in my eyes that is the same as stealing firstbase because you use good bunting technique to place the ball in the right spot to get a base hit).

So unless Burriss suddenly develop more power or more patience (in taking walks), he looks to be a good candidate to be the 2nd leadoff hitter, i.e. a good 8th (9th maybe someday if LaRussa proves his point, and winning has a way of doing that) place hitter who can get on base at the bottom of the order and steal 2B and be in scoring position for the top of the lineup, that is, our best hitters in the lineup. Still, a player like that at the bottom of the lineup is very useful and would be valuable if he can hit at .300 or better and can steal a lot of bases (which Burriss looks like he can).

Sanchez, Ortmeier, Roberts: The Giants Win Two in a Row!

Sanchez was Sizzling

Great game by Sanchez, getting double digit strikeouts and only two walks. He's going to dominate (5 PQS for this game) when he does that. Too bad the offense couldn't get him the win, but you knew that this was going to be a big theme of this season.

He suddenly makes the decision of what to do when Noah Lowry comes back suddenly very interesting. What happens to Correia or Sanchez when Lowry returns? Presumably they were betting that Sanchez would be the odd man out previously as his spot in the rotation is where you would want to drop Lowry into once he returned.

Now, as well as Correia pitched last season, if Sanchez continues to strike out 8-10 batters a game, that would be hard to send down, if not impossible. But if Correia can pitch really well, he would be hard to send down too. I think I have a possible solution that helps all the young pitchers.

Six Man Rotation

I think the Giants should move to a swing-man six-man rotation. Have all six starters in the rotation, but when there is a day off in the week, you skip over either Correia or Sanchez, alternating. A bonus is that this limits the starts that Cain and Lincecum (plus Lowry too) throws in the season - it is the cumulative wear and tear that really affects a starter - while giving Correia and Sanchez relatively regular starts (they can be the long man out of the bullpen when they are skipped).

Assuming there is around 22 starts per 6 men when Lowry returns in May (or about 132 games) , each of the regular 3 starters will get around 30 starts in 2008, Lowry about 25 starts, Correia and Sanchez, I'm guessing, around 20 or so starts each.

And I don't think that this should be done every season, just this season so that both Correia and Sanchez gets to stay up and get relatively regular starts/work. For example, when they are skipped, allow them to pitch 2-4 innings in a game around when a regular start would be, there is always a starter only going 5-7 innings most of the time. And once in a while they pitch as long as they can go when a starter gets knocked out of the box early, like Lincecum in the rain-delayed game.

Ortmeier Experiment Begins

Even before Roberts knee was diagnosed as needing a lot of surgery, it looked to me like the Giants were going to try to give Ortmeier more chances in the outfield. This was signaled by their move to make him strictly a right-handed batter. The team needs RHH who can hit because of the of LHHs Lewis and Schierholtz in the OF.

They clearly have not been impressed with Rajai Davis, who has seen little play this season thus far except for pinch-running. I think they were preparing to let Ortmeier take over the right-handed portion of the platoon in LF with Roberts, mainly because he is one of the few power hitting players on the team, let alone among the prospects. He hit for 20+ home run power in his short stints in the majors last season.

With Roberts going down for at least a couple of months due to the surgery - so serious that he had to get a second opinion (yep, it's bad all right!) and won't know what his return time is until they dig in, check out, and clean out the knee - it looks like Lewis will be platooning with Ortmeier in LF, though I would hope that it would be more a shared situation where Ortmeier gets a few games against RHP as well. Sabean in his KNBR show today also noted that he should also see play at 1B still.

Moreover, with Rowand not healthy, the guys could be seeing more play as that plays out, including Clay Timpner, who was brought up to replace Roberts because Schierholtz injured his right shin recently. If Rowand does go on the DL, I think Schierholtz, if healthy, would be brought up to start in RF, with Winn moving to CF, and get his chance at regular ABs starting.

I assume that Davis will semi-platoon in RF in that he will get to face all the tough left-handers the Giants face. I assume the Giants will want Schierholtz to face some LHP and get reps against them so that he can hopefully develop into a regular starter instead of a platoon player, as some experts had him pegged for in prior years.

All in all, all the young OF prospects should be seeing extensive play over the next couple of months, including Schierholtz if Rowand is out. They might still bring him up anyway once he is healthy since it was only a shin injury that kept Schierholtz from being the prospects called up instead of Timpner. They might play Winn in LF in order to give Schierholtz starts in RF.

And this Roberts injury was one of scenarios I laid out before the season. Roberts can be counted on to be out for at least 2-4 weeks each year, he is just a fragile-type platoon player, which is exactly what we needed this season - not Randy Winn - because he will be giving up a lot of playing time to the prospect outfielders, whereas Winn is a horse who regularly puts in 150+ games. Hopefully one of the young outfielders will get hot and finally figure things out (or just be hot, like Larry Herndon and Danny Gladden were for one glorious rookie season), forcing the Giants to finally trade off either Winn or Roberts (you know who I prefer :^), though Winn is more likely now because, well, he's not seriously injured right now.

And the Giants win two in a row, humm baby, Go Giants!

Your 2008 Giants: Big 6 Questions

Named in honor of Big 6, Giants Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson, I will posit on what I see as the Big 6 questions that the Giants face this season. I will give my thoughts on the possible answers.

1) How Many Losses?

As I've outlined in previous posts, I think the Giants are capable of besting last year's 71 win total, even without Bonds and Feliz, and perhaps even reach the .500 mark, or 81 wins. I think they will be closer to 81 than they will be to 71. I'll give further detail in my upcoming post on my thoughts on the 2008 season.

But I will say that it looks like the theory that Sabean has been espousing in recent years, that the league will switch from power to speed, much like the 80's and the Cards, will be put into practice, as speedsters like Davis, Velez and Lewis are added to the Giants roster, with Bocock, Burriss, Richardson, and others moving up the system as well. If they can execute this well, then their offense will be better than expected (and not much is expected), and will contribute to getting their record closer to .500 than last year's record.

2) Which Young Position Players Will Shine, Which Will Fail?

Obviously, I cannot answer this question at this time but can give some thoughts. I think Dan Ortmeier can hit well enough to hold the position until one of our better prospects come up and take it over, most probably Angel Villalona by 2009-11, but it could be another prospects, as I'll go into later. Kevin Frandsen might have lost his best chance to get to start in the majors, as Eugenio Velez looks to take 2B this season at some point, but either appear to be keeping the position warm for when Nick Noonan is ready, 2010-11 time period.

The Giants could keep 3B waiting for Frandsen for 2009, but while I like his bat, I don't think it's one that is suited for 3B unless we can get power (or speed) from other positions. But there is no one in the minors who look ready to take 3B, so that works to Frandsen's advantage. My only speculation there would be perhaps the Giants might move Travis Denker there, as he has shown some power in the minors (but not real 3B power, just more than Frandsen). Velez will get a chance to be the Giants "Figgins" until he finds a position he can stick at.

In the outfield, I think Nate Schierholtz will take RF at some point, and it looks likely to me that John Bowker will eventually win LF, but unless trades happen neither will do it this season. Fred Lewis' defense appears to be pretty bad, and his offense is not good enough to counter that. As athletic as he is, he might be best suited for the DH role in the AL, utility OF role in the NL. Rajai Davis can't hit righties but mashes lefties; Dave Roberts can't hit lefties but mashes righties. Both run like the wind and are similar leadoff hitters. A better match for platoon buddies does not exist.

I think Winn will be traded by mid-season once Schierholtz shows that he can duplicate his hitting for average and power again to start the 2008 season in AAA. Winn might go earlier if the Giants are serious about letting Lewis start more, but they admit that Lewis doesn't hit lefties that well.

3) Will the Pitching Rotation Be As Good As Advertised?

I think they will be better than projections currently show, and they are pretty good already. I guess the corollary question is then, will they be healthy? And by they, I mean Cain and Lincecum. Right now, it looks good, but you can never really know. Lincecum has developed a new slider that appears to be working quite fine, thank you. So the top of our rotation looks pretty good right now and should be quite an effective 1-2 punch eventually; they will be manning the #2 and #3 spots this season, which is good, less pressure on them, particularly Lincecum, to do well.

I think Zito can do as well as he was doing in the last 1-2 months of the season, plus he added some tweaks this spring training by changing his pitching motion. He should be in the high 3's ERA range. Lowry I think will do as well as he has been doing for most of the past two seasons (around 4.00 ERA) once he returns from the DL in early May/late April and become the best #4 starter in the majors. And between Sanchez and Correia, I think at least one will do well enough and that would be good enough for the #5 starter.

4) Will Brian Wilson Sing At Closer?

I think he is finally ready. He needed his butt kicked last season and responded well to being sent down. He was superb at the end of the season pitching for us as the closer. He will greatly improve the 2007 bullpen all by himself.

5) Which Vets Will We Eventually Trade?

I think the fire sale rumor was true, as it was reported from two different media sources citing their own sources. So I think that eventually all the ones named will be traded - Aurilia, Durham, Winn, perhaps even Roberts, opening spots for young prospects to take over. I think some of the young bullpen might be traded as well, as add-ons, to get a better position player.

In a recent interview, Sabean noted that he wants a lefty to break up Molina/Rowand/Durham, but if they trade away Randy Winn and insert Nate Schierholtz there, Nate can be that lefty bat. In fact, if Schierholtz can hit like he has, we could put Molina lower in the lineup and bat Rowand or Durham in the #4 and #6 spots, with Schierholtz #5.

6) Who Will the Giants Pick With their #5 Pick Overall?

The Giants need an impact bat. Most experts I've seen think that such a bat exists for us at the #5 overall. Unfortunately, most of them are 1B, which is where the Giants are trying to move Villalona to this season. Most mock drafts have the Giants picking Justin Smoak, college 1B. There were some speculation that they might go for pitching again, but in a recent interview on KNBR, Sabean admitted that they may have overdone the pitching drafting thing, and thus would put more emphasis on position players. There is also a current 3B in Pedro Alvarez, but he's expected to go #1 and some think he's eventually moving to 1B.

The Giants also have a high supplemental first draft pick because of the Phillies signing Feliz, and a number of good hitters fell there in 2007, such as Nick Noonan. But each year is different in terms of talent pool, so you can't rely on that fact, you can only note that 2007 was good. And Noonan is no sure thing to reach the majors and do well.

Bad News: Frandsen Probably Out All 2008 Season

Boy, the season as it was, was not going to be the greatest, but there were a few things I was greatly looking forward to: Cain getting better, Lincecum getting best, and Frandsen breaking out and becoming a starter. OK, maybe not a starter, but getting a lot of ABs a la Feliz when he broke out, getting consistent ABs all over the diamond. Lewis I'll believe when I see it, I have hopes for Ortmeier but know that years of poor performance in the minors says nix on that thought, Schierholtz don't have a spot, and I don't think Davis is the real deal.

But, Bam!, suddenly Frandsen's Achilles' heal burst, along with his season, and possibly his career - opportunities like this don't fall out of the tree that often, just ask Lance Niekro. This type of injury generally requires surgery and 5-6 months of recovery. He'll be lucky to make it back before the September call-ups.

Now, with Frandsen apparently out for the season, that causes a lot of things to happen. First is that Jose Castillo is pretty much guaranteed a spot, basically the spot that Frandsen was going to get, whereas before he was just backup in case anything goes wrong, like, for example, this injury. He might also get to start a lot, like Frandsen was suppose to do, depending on how his competition does. Second, and more importantly, Eugenio Velez, who is now Castillo's main competition, is now most probably not only making the team, but probably will get a lot of starts that Frandsen was going to get.

I believe the Giants were serious about giving young guys playing time, and now that Frandsen is out, that means Velez, who was already making the Giants think about giving him starting time with his great spring, will most probably see starting time at 2B, 3B, OF, probably even SS, much like Feliz did in the season he first played in a lot of games. Heck, though he hasn't hit well as a RHH, he is a natural righty, so he might even get some of the platoon game in LF with Roberts, instead of Davis, who has been pretty invisible this spring, it seems, I can't even think of what he has done, whereas Velez has been in the media constantly.

And that kind of leads into my third thought, which is that this might work out in giving Ortmeier starting time at 1B to start the season. Durham says everything is fine, that he is starting opening day, but this is not the first time he has cried "wolf". At least once every season he has been with us, there has been a 10-15 game period where he can't play, but he says he is almost ready to play, he just doesn't want to risk anything. So I expect him to waste a spot on the bench by having his cranky body unable to start, forcing the Giants to play Aurilia at 3B, Velez at 2B, and thus Ortmeier at 1B.

Heck, I hope the Giants just DL Durham to start the season - tear the bandage off the scab - and start Velez at 2B, Aurilia at 3B, and give Ortmeier 1B for a while. In any case, Castillo would be the utility guy plus get an occassional start at 2B and 3B. And Ortmeier has been turning around his hitting the past few games after it was made known that he's not guaranteed anything. Made it seem like he had been pressing and getting that ultimatum got him over the hump and just do it, instead of worrying each AB and not doing well.

I was not sold on Velez before, but he's doing more and more to impress me. Fred Lewis too. Hopefully, now that my Frandsen hopes were dashed, we can see Ortmeier, Velez, and Lewis get a lot of ABs and show what they can do.

Giants Fire Sale?

The MLB rumor site quoted Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sport reporting that the "Giants have informed several teams that they are shopping over a dozen of their major league and minor league players." Ken Rosenthal said some of the players include Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia, Randy Winn, and Steve Kline. The author of the site then actually called the Giants "and found out that Travis Ishikawa and Noah Lowry are both on that list as well." He suggested that this is a Giants fire sale.

Not quite because not every player who should go in a fire sale were mentioned. All the players listed make a lot of sense to trade because they are holding back younger players or is not as necessary anymore or both.

Durham out = Frandsen starting at 2B. Durham's horrid 2007 notwithstanding, he has had a very solid career, and a good spring could convince another team that he is back enough to obtain. The level of player we get back will correspond fully with how much the other team believes Durham is back.

Aurilia out = Velez as uber-utility guy. Aurilia had a horrible 2007, probably caused by a fender bender in spring training. But he's a relatively cheap vet who can play the whole infield and hit OK enough for a team to take him for a nothing prospect sent to the Giants. And the Giants are happy to oblige because they don't need him right now, except as 3B insurance, but there are others who should do OK at 3B, like Frandsen and possibly Velez.

Randy Winn was one of the few to have a good 2007, so the Giants should want to trade him because he could net a good prospect, unlike the others = Nate Schierholtz and/or Fred Lewis getting a chance to start in RF. They can't platoon since both are lefties, but they would be competing for playing time there. Or they could give Lewis the starting role for half a season, and if he can't hold it, bring up Schierholtz, or even Bowker, depending on who is doing better (though it appears that Bowker might be prepped as Ortmeier's replacement if Dan falters).

Steve Kline out = probably Jose Capellan being kept. Giants have a number of young good RP who are out of options or could be lost: Valdez, Threets, Capellan. The first two have been doing well, and the third, Capellan, comes highly recommended, Felipe Alou would lose a lot of face if they return him to the Red Sox because they got him in Rule 5 draft.

Noah Lowry out = Jonathan Sanchez or Pat Misch in. Both need to start in the majors to see how they do, but Correia looks good to go in winning the only open spot, and Lowry is the most expendable of the top four of Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Lowry (obviously Zito's contract precludes any trade, and the Giants aren't trading the other two, no matter how many fans want them to).

Unfortunately, Lowry went under the knife Friday for surgery, so he's not going to be traded right now. I assume the Giants are kicking the tires, as Sabean would say, in order to set the table for trading him by mid-season.

Travis Ishikawa is a failing prospect and there are now other prospects looking to be the Giants future 1B. First, we have Angel Villalona, who most rate as being in the Top 30 (or better) overall among all prospects. So even if Ishikawa came up this year, Angel will take the spot in a couple of years. Then there is Dan Ortmeier who looks to be getting the chance to start there until Angel is ready, plus if he is OK at 1B, he colld always return to the OF. If Ortmeier falters, then John Bowker would next get the chance. And there are a number of college 1B who the Giants could pick in this season's amateur draft with their #5 pick overall.

Still, Ishikawa is a great defender and has considerable power plus walks a lot, and he really needs to start in AAA or he'll be lost by the Giants next season as he only has one option left. But they appear to like McClain and he plays 1B at AAA plus they are trying out John Bowker at 1B as well (he could also come up mid-season and start in RF too).

I think they should keep him because he has been severely bothered by the poor parks at San Jose and Norwich (see MiLB.com's series by Jonathan Mayo for insight on how bad these parks are for hitters), they need to see how he does in AAA, in more regular parks. But it is not like he's a sure thing, it is just that he showed a lot of power and ability to walk despite the bad hitting environment in San Jose and Norwich is just a bear to play in for almost any power hitter. There should be other teams willing to give him a chance, heck, even Todd Linden got picked up and Ellison was traded twice and was a glorified pinch-runner with each team.

Giants Thoughts

The names on the list above are no surprise to most Giants fans. What is surprising, at least to those who don't read here, is that Dave Roberts is not on the list. As I have been harping on, the Giants want Roberts around to teach tips to the speedsters we'll have up here in 2008 and 2009. The key to making aggressive basestealing work is to not get caught and Roberts steals both in quantity (23-49 while starting regularly) and quality (81% career success; 88% last two seasons).

There was only six names revealed in the two articles, meaning that about five to seven more names are on the list that were not noteworthy enough for the authors to mention. Here are some of my thoughts on who else might be on the list.

Given that the Giants list outfielders as a desire, I have to think that Rajai Davis and Clay Timpner are on the list. Rajai Davis was never much of a prospect, a AAAA candidate until he had that nice month with us before the league caught up with him. And Clay Timpner really only works in CF and we just signed Aaron Rowand to play CF for a long while. Maybe Fred Lewis is on the list too, though I would think he would be mentioned if Ishikawa was.

In addition, they are reportedly looking for set up relievers, so it could be that Brad Hennessey might be on the list as well. As nicely as he has done, in a wide variety of roles - starting, long relief, set-up, and closing - he does not have the power arm that Giants management likes, so he could be a case of selling high, after doing so well in 2007 in a number of roles, as well as oping a spot for one of the trio of relievers we would lose if not on the Giants 25 man roster come starting day: Merkin Valdez, Erick Threets, and Jose Capellan.

He could net a good prospect due to how well he has done, how flexible he can be in a variety of situations, and how much longer they have to control him. It could explain why the Giants started him recently in spring training. You know, show how valuable he can be to prospective teams.

I would also add Randy Messenger and maybe Vinnie Chulk as possibilities too. Particularly Messenger after his big blow up over his demotion the other day. With so many other good young relievers who cannot be sent down, the Giants could afford to trade these two while the trio are doing well and the two have some trade value as major league relievers.

Chulk would not get sent down in any case, but had a nice year last season and thus could net a nice prospect back. Messenger was just sent down recently, as the Giants still had an option on him, but, still, he did well for us until he busted his fist in the wall, which probably cost us any chance of getting anyone good for him in trade, but I would not mind losing him because he don't strike out that many batters on a K/9 basis. We need strikeout pitchers to be more successful in the playoffs and neither of them are stellar in that regard.

Oddly enough, the Giants are looking for backup catchers, which implies that they are not happy with Eliezer Alfonzo or Guillermo Rodriguez as our backups. Given their offensive show during the Carribean Winter Leagues, that suggest they are looking for a strong defensive catcher to complement Molina, whose defense has seen much better days. I like Alfonzo as backup, but given the Giants future relies so much on pitching, it would behoove us to pick up someone solid defensively as a backup catcher, for defensive purposes at the end of the game, plus he could see starts when Bengie Molina is struggling offensively, which is his only area of value-add.

Giants Youths Seek ABs

The Giants young position duo most likely to get significant playing time in 2008 - Kevin Frandsen and Dan Ortmeier - met with the press yesterday (Wednesday), along with Brian Sabean, and the Chron and Merc had their versions of the press conference.

The Chron's version noted Kevin Frandsen's and Dan Ortmeier's determination to win playing time by building up their bodies and changing it per the team's instructions. Frandsen showed off his new physique, and Ortmeier likewise added more muscle and changed his proportions in order to generate more power.

That was the key for Geovanny Soto, a prospect for the Cubs who like Ortmeier was a good prospect coming up, but hadn't been doing much at the higher levels. So last off-season, he worked on his body and got into tip-top shape and had a monster offensive year in AAA, then coming up and earning the starting job then and for 2008.

Not that either Frandsen and Ortmeier can hit as well as Soto, just that sometimes it doesn't take much to get the prospect to another level. Also, Frandsen talked about his strong feelings of friendship and respect for Durham but also basically challenged Durham publicly that he's going to take the starting job. But can he?

Sabean had some good words to that effect, stating:

"I think at this point it looks favorable. I think the players realize that, and Boch and the coaching staff realize the transition we're in. To not give guys like Frandsen and Ortmeier a chance to play, in the phase we're in, would be counterproductive."

Still, Sabean added that nothings in stone, that the offense and roster will be a work in progress into the regular season, mainly through trade, though free agents remain a possibility. Basically, that's the same as any year, if you produce, you have nothing to worry about, if you don't, we will replace you with someone we think can do the job. Also, both players were asked about that and responded that neither of them were promised anything by Giants management. Ortmeier noted:

"But I respect that because I want to be ready to compete and win a job," Ortmeier said. "That was my mindset from the first day of the off-season and it remains the same today. Whether we sign somebody tomorrow or we don't sign anybody at all, I'm focused on being healthy and ready to contribute."

Bochy was there too and had some info to share:

"Kevin looks like he's ready to take over and play on a regular basis," Bochy said. "But you do have another second baseman (Ray Durham) who two years ago threw up some great numbers and hit in the heart of the order. We're geared toward pitching and defense, but we'll have to knock in runs, too.

"So as manager, there'll be some tough decisions, especially when you're coming off a season like we had. We want to get back on track. It usually comes down to how much trust you have in your young players and who else you have on your ballclub. Right now, I'd say Ortmeier and Frandsen would get a lot of playing time."

Bochy said Ortmeier still has to answer questions about his defense and his switch-hitting stroke, especially from the left side.

Happiness: No Feliz

The good news is that the Giants have moved on from Feliz (though there appears to be a tiny window open). They offered him a two year contract and he turned it down. So the Giants are moving on and looking into trades and other free agents, apparently.

Morgan Ensberg was mentioned by the Merc (I like him best, no cost in prospects, could be low cost/risk, high reward if he returns to past excellence, which I think is still possible, Garner didn't like him or use him well, I heard) and Crede has been a constant name tied to the Giants, and now there's a link, in that Rowand highly recommends him and Ron Schueler, Sabean's new advisor, was the ChiSox GM when they got Crede, and Ron has been pushing for Crede.

However, Sabean had to add the word "pretty", as in, "we've pretty much moved on," which leaves a window open for the Giants to sign Feliz. But that is the Chron version, the Merc version quotes instead: "We moved on," Giants G.M. Brian Sabean said. "I don't see us doing business." I don't see means that there's wiggle room for something he didn't see.

And according to the Merc, sources close to Feliz said that Feliz is thinking of dropping his agent and coming back to the Giants, either at the Giants terms (two years) or possibly even if it is only a one year contract. But according to Baggarly, it was left unclear if Sabean would reopen negotiations with Feliz.

Frandsen and Ortmeier Show

The two young players, though, were the star attractions. Both are hoping to get a lot of ABs. Ortmeier said that he wanted 500 AB, to which Frandsen then retorted that he wanted 700 AB (which is only possible if he led off and didn't walk or get HBP much). Both are excited over the opportunity they might be getting.

"It's a new era, a fresh start for all of us," Frandsen said Wednesday. "All we care about is playing for the Giants, for this city and the fans in our ballpark. We're here to show them they should be excited about us because we can play. We've watched each other have great success in the minor leagues."

Ortmeier knows that he's not going to replace Bonds's production:

"I'm definitely not going to come in and try to hit more home runs," Ortmeier said. "I'm going to try to do what I do, which is make good, consistent contact. I think I'm strong enough, and my mechanics are good enough, that if I hit the ball, it's going to go. I'm not too worried about that. You can't come and think, 'I gained 10 pounds. I'm going to hit 15 more home runs.' "

The Chron noted that at this time, Aurilia looks likely to be sharing time with both Frandsen and Ortmeier, at 3B and 1B, respectively. It also noted that with Aurilia around, the Giants will not be in the market for mentors like Tony Clark or Mark Sweeney. That kills the rumor that the Giants are interested in Tony Clark, which to me has always appeared to be just a suggestion that Clark's agent threw out there to drum up business for his client.

We'll end with a quote from Frandsen, who talked about working out with Dustin Pedroia, who the Red Sox stuck with after a horrid April:

"There's no bigger confidence boost than having someone stick with you after a month like that," Frandsen said. "It's what you'd hope the Giants would do if they give me an opportunity: stick with you and let you go through your lows, let you fight out of it."

Niekro Gone

Unsurprisingly, Lance Niekro is no longer a Giant. He recently signed with the Houston Astros, which is where he grew up when his father was an Astro player.

The Value of Base Running

As all good Giants fans should know, Brian Sabean for the past few years has been preaching that the game is changing, as it has in the past back and forth, from an emphasis on power to an emphasis on speed. That has led to his fascination with speedsters like Joey Gathright, who the Giants were rumored to be chasing after for a while a few years back, the pickup of Eugenio Velez from Toronto's scrap heap, the drafting of speedsters like Fred Lewis, Marcus Sander, Emmanuel Burriss, Antoan Richardson, Mike McBryde, and Wendell Fairley, and the signing of Dave Roberts, who is a base-stealing machine who learned at the feet of one of the greats, Maury Wills.

Baseball Prospectus recently had an article on whether baserunning is a skill, so I thought I would discuss what was said in the article, since this is something the Giants appear to be moving towards as a team philosophy. First, baserunning is a persistent ability. I know, Duh!, but this is shown statistically by correlating a players (BP metric) EqBR year to year. Second, when they correlated a player's Speed score with his (BP metric) EqBR, they found that speed is the most significant factor in his EQBR, again, Duh!, but it's nice to know stats confirm these no-brainers.

I found the last finding to be most interesting to Giants fans and hence I will quote it here:

The last question, of course, is how much baserunning really matters. And the general rule of thumb is that it can make about a win’s worth of difference at the extremes: a really fast/skilled baserunner will produce about 8-10 extra runs for his team on a going-forward basis as compared with a really slow/terrible baserunner. Or, if you prefer, a great baserunner will produce about an extra half-win for his team (4-5 runs) per season versus an average
baserunner.

This is nothing to sneeze at. Baserunning is another in that category of things that might be overrated by the mainstream media, but has nevertheless been underrated by sabermetricians.

I have to note it again: A great baserunner will produce an extra half-win for his team every season over an average baserunner. That's from taking the extra base as well as stealing bases, they all add up during a season.

That's why I've been pushing for Dan Ortmeier to get a chance at 1B. Even if he might fall short of 1B standards in terms of OPS - and he actually hit well in limited play in 2007 in the majors, his OPS+ was 107, or slightly better than average - he could make up for some of that shortfall with his baserunning skills. He has a big body that belies his keen baserunning skills that have allowed him to reach high teens in stolen bases every year since he started playing full season ball. Based just on his small sample in 2007, he would have stolen 8-9 bases in the majors at the rate he stole at.

And most firstbasemen are not even average baserunners, they are usually pretty terrible baserunners, and great baseruners add about a win over a poor baserunner, though admittedly Ortmeier is not great, merely good, so maybe he's only three-quarters of a win better. Still, in any case, his baserunning savvy would give him additional value over an average firstbaseman baserunner.

In addition, if a GM can build a team of speedburners, they can add 3-4 wins per season over what they can do as hitters. That's about what we need right now to get back to .500, based on last season's team, and as allfrank has been reminding me, the starting rotation should be improved over last year's overall version, with Cain improving, Lowry steady, Zito over his jitters, Lincecum learning and developing, and whoever is the 5th starter should be better than what Morris and Ortiz put together last season, moving forward.

Obviously 2008 will not feature a lot of speedburners, but we do have Roberts, Davis, and Vizquel, plus Lewis and Ortmeier, and perhaps Velez, on the bench at minimum, perhaps sometimes starting, so there could be lineups where there are a lot of speed in there.

Sweeney Traded: Sweet for Ortmeier

Mark Sweeney has been traded to the enemy - the LA D-gers - for the same old, same old, the noted PTBNL (Player To Be Named Later). This is the first trade between old buddies (and twins) Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti, and the first trade between the Giants and the D-gers since 22 years ago when we acquired the immortal Candy Maldonado (gee, are Giants RF's cursed, he had the slide long before Jose Cruz Jr.'s dropped easy flyball) for Alex Trevino, a catcher we had. Despite the slide and missed flyball, we got the better of that exchange.

We are not going to get much of a prospect for Sweeney, in terms of near-term help, maybe we might get a long-term project like 1B Kyle Orr, a nice power-hitter they drafted last year but still way down the system, or a failing/failed prospect like 1B Cory Dunlap, but none of their more interesting prospects like Andy LaRoche, Chin-Lung Hu, or Blake DeWitt. Still, a prospect is a prospect, he should be better than whatever we get in compensation with Sweeney as a free agent, though I kind of doubt we get anything for him.

Sweeney was a clear B-free agent rating last off-season, so he probably would still yield a B this off-season, though it might be close because the eliminated 10% of the A's, which moved up the score he needs to be a B. Since it is cut off at the 40% level, it should be around 45 this year and he was tied for 41st last year. However, his stats this year, as stellar as it has been as a pinch-hitter, is down from 2005, as the rating is based on two-year production, so it looks like he might have fallen down to the C level, which gets no compensation this year. So any prospect for him right now is probably better than the nothing we probably would have gotten once he signed with anyone (though even that would be in doubt, we would have to offer arbitration as I doubt any team is going to sign him before the deadline for compensation, as I doubt there is a lot of competition for him).

To sum, Sweeney was a good soldier, though he was a little miffed early this season when it was speculated that he might be dropped off the roster, so it is good that we got someone for him, even a spec. And he has been a great teammate, setting up the Giants Idol competition both years, generally being a good influence in the clubhouse. Or maybe he's one of those Morris was sniffing at about accepting losing? :^) As a Giants fan, I salute him and his contributions, but wish him nothing but nothing since he's with the evil D-gers now, sorry, can't wish him good hitting.

Ortmeier Promoted

Dan Ortmeier, come on down! He's the lucky prospect who gets the call-up, and not a moment too soon, given Roberts injury - Roberts will probably be out for at least a few days. Sweeney was a luxury a losing team don't really need, we needed someone more like Ortmeier on the roster instead, one who could be a true 4th OF, who can play all three OF positions, and who is young and can hopefully learn and develop up here.

I like Ortmeier, and there must have been something there that Bonds saw because he actually was helping Ortmeier before spring training, I think in 2006, and given how Bonds don't normally give his teammates the time of day, that seemed significant to me. Besides, how can you not like a guy who is that tall and yet can steal bases in double figures plus hit the long ball as well?

Other Compensation Thoughts

First, for those who don't think much about Morris, he was rated an A-compensation pick last season, but will drop to a B this off-season because of the change in the latest CBA. A lot of Giants fans (and other fans) like to disparage him and his stats, but he really was a good pitcher, that is how far ERAs has risen in our era, due to whatever started runs to rise in the 90's (I'm going to post one expert's very logical take on this; I just realized that not everyone has seen everything I have).

Given that Rajai Davis looks to be good enough to be Dave Roberts platoon buddy in 2008 and to play the other OF positions OK, I think we got pretty good value for Morris, better than what a B-compensation pick, which is at best a 2nd round pick, but could fall to later rounds easily. And the player to be named later - which will probably depend on how well Morris does, so wish him well, except against the Giants (I'll bet he'll be amped up like he was last year and have a poor start against us, much like he has since mid-June) - will be like a cherry on top.

Other vets on the trading block possibly:

• Klesko was a B after 2006, but with the change in the ranges and his good but not improved hitting overall, he's probably a C after this season, and we would not be due compensation for him.
• Durham was clearly an A, but with his collapse this season and smaller A-range, probably falls to a B but if he recovers next year, he should be still around there.
• Aurilia was an A, but he'll be a B even without his poor season. I think he'll be lucky to be a B after next season, even if he recovers in 2008.
• Vizquel was an A bare would barely be one this season after the reduced A-range, and his poor season would appear to sink him, but as I noted in my pre-season discussion, he seems to alternate good and bad seasons so he was due to be bad this year, just not this bad. But he has suddenly come alive and if he can keep this up for a while, he might be able to catch up with here he was in 2005 and keep his A-compensation rating. Unfortunately, we have no SS ready - though Ochoa looks interesting - so the Giants might be tempted to re-sign him, particularly if he is willing to take a big paycut (he mentioned he prefers to stay in SF). We will see, but if a good team signs him, we get a back of the first round pick possibly (if he is that team's best A signing) plus a sandwich pick, very rich for him.
• Feliz was a B last year, but that rating would only earn a C this off-season, plus he's hitting worse this season, so he's probably not going to earn any compensation. Then again, who would want him?

I don't think Molina, Roberts or Winn will be traded, so I won't cover them.

How Giants Starters Don't Fit the DIPS Mold

There are a lot of saber oriented people today and many deride the Giants rotation because DIPS say so. The problem is that many of the saber-knowledgeable (and I was one before and sometimes slip up) are taking the strictly DIPS view of the Giants starters and the Giants don't necessarily fit that. As Tom Tippett showed in his analysis at Diamond Mind, there are pitchers who are able to keep their BABIP down, who are able to defy the DIPS manta of "Every pitcher will regress to .300 BABIP!" (Someone noted that he thought it was .290 but I got .300 as the mean from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual)

The Giants have a number of pitchers who might not fit the DIPS model. Zito definitely has shown the ability to keep it substantially lower than .300 and Cain has been south of .300, and greatly so, while in the pros except for his first season, which was cut short. Ortiz was also south of .300 much of his career, though it is too soon to tell if he's actually able to still do that. And Lincecum certainly looks like a sub .300 BABIP pitcher as well, based on his minors stats.

Less hits means you can have a higher BB/9 (and thus K/BB) and still do well as a pitcher, particularly since BIP accounts for something like 60-70% of all plays and hits do more damage than BB. One way of accounting for this difference is measuring how high the pitcher's H/9 would be if their BABIP was .300 instead of whatever it was that season. The difference of what it would be and what it was, can be subtracted from BB/9 to get an adjusted BB/9, then an adjust K/BB can be calculated.

Example of BB/9 Adjustment

For example, in 2001, Russ Ortiz's K/BB was 1.86, OK but not great. But his BABIP was .280, not .300, so his H/9 was lowered 0.55. Subtracting that from his 3.75 BB/9, his adjusted BB/9 is 3.2 and his K/BB is 2.17, which is pretty good for a starter.

Plus there should be an additional adjustment higher for K/BB because a hit is not equal to a walk, even for a single, because a walk can only advance runners 90 feet, and doesn't do anything at all if first base is open, whereas a single almost always advance all runners an additional base, two if hit right and speedy baserunner. And sometimes that hit is an extra-base hit.

There's probably some way of truly adjusting to account for extrabase hits, but I think this is a good enough example to show how Ortiz did his high-wire act: he was playing with a loaded deck because the walks he gave up were not as damaging as the hits other pitchers gave up instead. If fans understood this, they might have not been so much on Ortiz for doing that.

The Back of the Rotation

Morris doesn't strike out a lot anymore but he has demonstrated over this career that he can keep his BB/9 down low and, once he lost his velocity, got his BB/9 down even lower. This season has been an aberration in that he's walking a lot more than usual, but has been extremely lucky in keeping HR/9 and HR/FB way down low. Each should approach his career means and counteract each other as the season progresses. In addition, since he's become a low velocity starter (about 2003 on), his BABIP has been on the lower side, though not dramatically so, but that's not necessary if you walk at a very low rate, like he does (mid to low 2's when 3 is good). The thing is, he's capable of a high 3 ERA, low 4 ERA, based on his peripherals, and he was there last season until the very end when at some point he got injured (and should have DLed but kept silent).

Lowry I've been worried about because he hasn't had a high K game since his strained oblique last season, but his recent game with 8 K's and 1 BB tells me that he's got his changeup working again and he'll be like he was in 2005 and not like how he was in 2006. Last season and this season, until his last game, highest he could strike out was 6. In 2005, 12 starts out of 33 that he had 7 or more strikeouts. In fact, he was slow starting that season too, he didn't hit 7+ strikeouts until May 6th, so he's right on target if 2005 is what he's capable of. And even though he couldn't strike out anyone last season, he still kept his ERA down in the low 4 until his sore arm problem caused him to give up a bunch of runs in September.

Giants Rotation

As I've been saying since the start of the last offseason, I like the Giants rotation a lot, both long term and for playoff success. Pitchers like Cain and Lincecum can be dominant when they are on, and Zito, Lowry, and Morris have good outings many more times than disastrous ones. That's why I like the Zito signing, because it made our rotation pretty top notch relative to most teams, he was the tipping point from a good to a great rotation.

If you examine how the rotation compares to the majors, they are basically a rotation of #2 starters (see The Hardball Times articles on starters by slot by Jeff Sackman). BP noted that Zito, despite his negatives sabermetically, is the top or #2 starter on most rotations (see their comments on Zito in their 2007 Annual, highly recommended). Cain had a high 3 ERA after his skipped start, low 3 after the All-Star Break, and clearly has been doing well this season. Lowry had a high 3 ERA in 2004 and 2005 and, as I noted, he seems to be rounding into 2005 form. Morris, was a low to mid 4 ERA last season until the very end when he was pitching injured. Ortiz, who knows now, but he was a #2 type previously but now the point's moot since Lincecum is now in the rotation - Lincecum gives us hope that he can be something like a #2 at minimum, but he's already pitching like an ace.

That's a rotation full of #2 starters (or better) that will be hard for any team to get through, during the season or in the playoffs, leaving it up to our offense to just be average and that will win us a lot of games if they can. After their slow start, they have been average and we have won a lot of games.

Oh, and what a game by Lincecum and Zito the last two nights! What a rotation!

Giants Ready to Start Winning Again

With the rotation rounding out nicely and the bullpen is good enough, once Durham gets back, the offense will be improved over early May now that Bonds is hitting again and Klesko has started to hit like he used to. I think the Giants is starting to gel, the starting rotation has been pretty good for the most part, the bullpen is rounding out nicely, except for Benitez up and down act, and the offense looks to be starting to hit on most cyclinders, with Winn and Klesko hitting like they were capable of during May, Durham returning to the lineup, Bonds rounding back into form, Molina hitting like he's capable, Feliz too, and Lewis doing OK in Roberts absence.

Only Vizquel has not been able to do well and I'm getting worried about him, he going to have his second straight sub-.600 OPS month, which he hasn't done in the last 5 seasons; in 2001, he had two 500's OPS but one was in April, the other in Sept/Oct and the last time he had sub-600 OPS in consecutive months was 1993, 14 seasons ago.

Despite Vizquel's problems, I think once we get Durham back, maybe as soon as this weekend series, the Giants should be able to mount sustained winning in the month of June and make a move on 1st place. The offense has been up and down but I think with Klesko, Bonds, Durham, Molina in the middle of the lineup, and Winn hitting up top, the Giants offense will be steady enough against RHP. And Feliz batting 7th is an asset, as most 7th hitters don't hit as well as Feliz can, plus his overall stats are suffering right now from poor hitting (i.e. bad luck, his BABIP is very low) against LHP, against whom he usually hits better than RHP - he's doing about average right now vs. RHP.

Yeah, might not seem like it right now, but I think they are on the verge of playing well and winning a bunch of series, and therefore a lot of games, going forward. I think they showed a lot, coming back after that demoralizing lost on Tuesday, and not only winning but shutting out the Met's great offense which hadn't been shut out all season until now. That shows a lot of heart, I think, a lot of guts and inner fortitude. Plus, as I noted, Durham in the lineup and Bonds over his cold spell and Klesko hitting for power (.525 SLG, 197 ISO, 45% extra-base hits, .922 OPS in May) will help the offense heat in June.

Interesting (and Curious) Sidenote

Makes me wonder about Baseball America's sources: there was a nice article on Fred Lewis the other day (May 29th, Tuesday) in the Merc, and it noted that:

Whenever Fred Lewis hears that he's making up for lost time on the baseball field because of his football background, he can only shake his head and smile.

"My momma wouldn't even let me play football until high school. I've been playing baseball my whole life."

So that's kind of scary then. Most analysis of his defense (particularly BA) has always carried the caveat that he is learned to play the outfield late because of his football activities. But according to him, he's been playing all his life. Nothing scientific, but I've been hearing on the radio regularly that he misplayed one ball or another, or did something bone-headed. I wonder what nickname that will earn him, Linden got the moniker "Magellan" because of his poor routes.

Anyway, I think his honeymoon is over, as he sat against a LHP the last two games, as Ortmeier started against the lefties - it seemed like Lewis played most games previously, though maybe it was just a long stretch of RHP starting.

That's just as well, he's hitting a horrid .067/.067/.200/.267 vs. LHP in 15 ABs. He's probably platooning with Ortmeier until Roberts returns and then going back to AAA, the Giants need somebody who can hit against LHP when Roberts sits against LHP and Lewis bats left-handed whereas Ortmeier switch-hits. Plus Ortmeier has been killing LHP (small samples) this season. He also hit well against them in AAA this season and last. Ironic since he is a natural lefty and hits poorly against RHP relative to LHP and there's more RHP than LHP... Hopefully he can learn to hit better against them now that he's up here and getting more/better coaching on hitting.

Tell Me Something I Didn't Know: Ortiz to Return to Bullpen

The Giants have announced that Ortiz will be coming back to the major league roster in the bullpen. Which is not surprising given how well Lincecum has been doing in the majors and, before that, the minors. As I've been beating the drums on, this helps the Giants bullpen greatly by adding another experienced arm in there, particularly one with closer experience, so perhaps he can beef up the setup situation - not that Hennessey hasn't been very good in that role, but rather that now we should have two very good options to go to in those situations.

However, his role is up in the air right now, could be long relief, could be other situations, according to the article. I think it's going to be like April when Bochy was trying to figure how where everyone's strengths and weaknesses are, and how they respond to certain roles. Ortiz will find himself doing everything, long, short, middle, setup, perhaps even close if Benitez has been used often. As I noted, I hope for him to assert a strong role in the bullpen, perhaps even usurping Hennessey's role.

If he can do that, then he might become the closer we were looking for in spring to take it away from Benitez. I'm hoping the skills he showed before as closer will come to the fore now and he can "close" in setup situations and occassionally in actual closing situations. This would give the Giants an option in case they decide that they want to trade away Benitez - to get something for all the trouble he has caused to the franchise - when there are some desperate teams looking for bullpen help (and you know there will be a number of them) - and maybe pick up a good bat somewhere.

It would also give us an option to go to looking forward should Wilson continue to struggle with his control in AAA Fresno, because there's no way in hell Benitez should be re-signed. But then what do we do for closer if Wilson is not ready? Hennessey has been nice, but I don't look at him right now and think "closer!" And I know Giants fans probably think the same about Ortiz and his penchant to walk guys, but at least he's been in the closer's role before, been very successful doing that, is known to the organization, and should be cheap again next season because the D-backs are still on the hook for $6-7M for the 2008 season, if I remember right.

Who Can It Be Now?

The Giants is being coy about what would happen once Ortiz returns because that will result in someone being sent down. The most obvious choice to me is to send Sanchez back down and become the starter that he should be, so that he can be ready to compete for a starting role next season - or perhaps prove that he belongs in the bullpen. Either way, he hasn't been doing that well in the bullpen up here anyhow.

If the Giants were to go in another direction, there are really only two choices that I can see among the position players: Ortmeier and Frandsen. Given all the blab about how Frandsen was going to come back up quickly and get a lot more play, plus Durham's and Aurilia's recent minor ache and pain that kept them out of the lineup, it would seem that it would not make sense to send back Frandsen.

Meanwhile, Ortmeier is replaceable on the roster. Sweeney and Klesko can play LF, Winn and Lewis can play CF and RF, plus we have already seen Sweeney take RF this season, have seen Feliz in RF a couple of years ago, plus have seen Frandsen take a game or two in the OF as well. Plus Durham could probably do a game in CF without problems as well, people have been talking about how he should be a CF since before he joined the Giants.

Also, look at how little he has been used since both he and Lewis joined the team. Of course, Lewis's hot streak probably has a lot to do with that, but Ortmeier also came up and hit the ground hitting as well. But he still sat, even though there has been a number of LHP starters that Lewis could have been sat down for and allow Ortmeier a turn in RF. So Ortmeier looks like the most logical choice among the position players to send down.

Given the innings the bullpen has been throwing recently, it would seem to make sense to send down Ortmeier, particularly with all the other possible OFs who could play in a pinch and the lack of usage he has been experiencing when Lewis could have sat a game or two to allow Ortmeier an opportunity. But Lewis has grasped the golden opportunity and rung the bell.

I still would prefer to send Sanchez down now. There's still around 3 months left in the minor league season, so he can ramp up his innings pitched and get his arm into starter mode. Also, this stops the ticking on his major league service, so that we don't waste it on bad relief outings and instead on good starts 2008 and beyond. This gives Ortiz more opportunity to throw in the bullpen, as there would be one less option.

Why I Like Ortmeier

Also, I like Ortmeier. As recently as one year ago, he was still considered a prospect who could be a starting corner OF. I believe that playing in Dodd Stadium for the Connecticut Defenders has screwed around with his confidence and that, given time, could return to that state in which he was a good prospect. I think if he can get some extended play in the majors, much like the Giants were going to do for Linden this year, he can become that player again. After all, there must have been something there that Bonds liked a lot for him to help him out in spring training (beyond a photo-op; I don't see Bonds doing something like that to court favor, otherwise he would have kissed up to reporters long ago) when he could have helped out other prospects but didn't.

And what's there not to like? He has double-digit power and, more importantly, he has basepath smarts, which he has converted into a lot of steals, unusual for a big man like him, he could get double-digits in steals as a starter. Thus he would give the Giants a stolen base threat on the bench, which we currently don't have with Klesko, Sweeney, Frandsen, and Alfonzo on the bench (and Linden previously). Thus he would be ideal as Bonds's designated pinch-runner/defensive replacement, then throw him a few bones by giving him starts when Bonds rests.

Like Linden, he was mainly a corner OF but once the Giants started thinking of him as a utility guy, he started getting starts in CF in AAA, and thus could play all OF positions. And he's a switch-hitter too, so he would be useful in pinch-hitting assignments. Besides, once Roberts returns from the DL, he's a platoon guy but Fred Lewis bats left so he would not make sense as a guy to get starts when there is a LHP; however, Ortmeier would. So why not keep him up and get him acclimated to the 5th OF role that Linden was suppose to occupy?