Your 2014 Giants: Opening Two 40-man Roster Spots

In order to open a spot for Mike Morse, the Giants end up possibly losing two players.  As reported by the usual suspects, the Giants worked on a deal to sell Brett Pill to a Korean team, but when the papers went through league official channels and Morse needed to be added, the Giants DFAed Eric Surkamp to put Morse on.  Pill's sale - pending his negotiating a salary with the new club, apparently the expectation is that he'll get $1M or so, so the talk is that if this falls through, there are other Korean and Japanese clubs interested - will then open up a spot on the 40-man,  and that appears to have happened.

ogc thoughts

It is a bit of a risk to expose Surkamp this way, but, as reported by one writer, odds are that other teams are at their 40-man max like the Giants and won't claim him.  I would say that this is due to the Rule 5 Draft pushing teams to roster players they don't want to lose.  Still, if some team likes Surkamp more than one of their 40, they will claim him.

If unclaimed, it is reported that since this is his first one, the Giants can re-assign him to Fresno and hold him there.   Should he be placed on the 40 again and DFAed again, then should he be unclaimed again, he could decline assignment and declare himself a free agent.

I like what Surkamp did previously and what he has done in his recovery from his TJS, but if we lose him, se la vie.  I have reached the point that I trust the Giants brain trust to make the call on a player and what they think is right.

Sabean and gang has been extraordinarily good at not missing much when trading away players or just plain letting them go, and especially at keeping around the interesting ones who might be good ones, like Cain, Lincecum, Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner, Belt and Crawford.  Who have gotten away?  Foulke, Howry, Liriano but he caused the Twins to waste Mauer's and Morneau's peak seasons, maybe Villanueva and Correia, and Wheeler is a ticking time bomb.  That's minor compared to what we have gotten in trade:  Schmidt, Snow, Burke, Livan, Nen, Winn, Pence, Scutaro, among others.

If Surkamp moves on and prove the Giants wrong, that's what happens with calculated risks, sometimes they backfire.  Fans get mad at mistakes, but I feel that any GM who does not skate on the edge isn't doing everything he can to get us to the promised land ... again, for the third time, one must also remember.

Fans should want their GM to take some risks, to push the envelope some, and pick up some big gains in the process.  Like, though they had a full rotation already, had Tanaka been available, maybe they go ahead and bid for him and maybe win him, then figure out what to do with six starters (apparently Tanaka's team isn't happy that the new posting system limits them to $20M posting fee, and thus are keeping him for one more season - they control him for two more - for $8M and probably will post him next off-season; which is perfect for us, as we'll have a better idea of where Lincecum, Hudson, and Vogelsong are with their major league careers by next off-season, and perhaps be very interested in entering the contest for his services).

But I think I can say pretty confidently that should we lose him, he won't go on and be a Johan Santana who moves on to become an ace.  That rarely happens period, and hasn't happened to the Giants so far, though Liriano came close and Wheeler is still out there.  And his stats, while nice in the minors, wasn't overwhelming either, like Lincecum's or Bumgarner's were.   But you never know, hence the term "calculated risk".  It is unlikely he comes back to hurt us, but that risk is there.

Meanwhile, it looks like Pill is signing with a Korean team and that will open up one 40-man roster spot for the Giants.  Now, if another team comes into the situation where they need to DFA someone they otherwise might have kept, that is, take their calculated risk, the Giants are in position now to grab a flier, like they did with Rosario last season.  He did OK but not that great, and while he'll be competing for a spot, I don't see him winning a spot, not with Hembree and Machi around.  But that's baseball too, that's why you play the games, because you never know.

In other news, the Giants appeared to have added a number of players, as reported by Pavlovic:

• First, the Giants (I read this somewhere else previously) signed former A's relief pitcher, Andrew Carignan, whose stats looked nice.  Could be a nice reclamation project, not sure why the A's let him go, maybe he could be another Casilla for us.
• Also, BA announced the Giants signed Adam Refer and Casey Weathers.   The Giants rep for being Pitcher Whisperers appears to be still going strong, the former did well with flaws (walks) and the latter was a high draft pick who has struggled (like Blanco and Arias, who were top prospects once), and the Giants picked up both.
• And a Giants minor leaguer playing in winter league tweeted that a teammate, Mario Lisson, signed with the team.  He played a number of positions, but apparently 3B is his regular position.

Carignan appears to be another Hunter Strickland find.  He was out for all of 2013, for TJS, and just like Hunter, picked him up the season he missed the full season recovering from that surgery.  The twist here is that he also had shoulder surgery as well, that is why he was out for all of 2013, even though he was TJS operated in mid-2012, like Surkamp was.  But you look at his stats, and if he is anywhere near what he was doing before in AAA, he could be a good reliever at the major league level. And the Giants reviewed all of his medical files and still signed him.  So good luck to him.  

Your 2014 Giants: Mike Morse Signed to Play LF

As reported by the usual suspects, Mike Morse has been signed by the Giants.  I've seen one report for $5M plus incentives, another for $6M.  He has been named the starting LF, apparently that had to be promised to him in order to get him to ignore a larger money deal with Astros.

He had a down season in 2013 after a strong three years 2010-2012, and thus the worries, plus he has missed a lot of games due to health issues, only putting in one season where he played most of the games, in 2011.

ogc thoughts

Some are complaining that he's not much of an improvement over Blanco, that their WAR production is similar.  Signing a free agent is not always about improving on what you got already. In this case, the Giants have almost zero depth in the OF, with Perez, Kieschnick, and Brown as the most likely call-ups, and none of them looking particularly good as a starter. By getting a player like Morse, now they have better coverage should Pagan (or Morse) be felled by injury, with Blanco taking over in that case. Last season, instead, Torres came in and sucked.  I think that is a major reason for the signing, providing additional depth.

In any case, since there is no agreement on which defensive metric is the best one or even the correct one, while I would agree that comparing players as to who is better is fine, to try to measure exactly who is better and calculating a WAR to compare is equivalent to the old-timers who still love to use BA to compare hitters.  That degree of lack of alignment to true value makes it hard to say anything definitive in either case.

And there is an improvement over Blanco in that Morse has amazingly even splits versus LHP and RHP, whereas Blanco is clearly a platoon player, unable to figure out LHP yet.  People forget how much platoon players cost your lineup when they are in there and sucking badly. Morse is someone who can hit either pitcher similarly well.  On top of that, he has actually hit better on the road than at home, suggesting that his numbers have been suppressed by his home park (though with AT&T, he'll probably be suppressed again)

In addition, the Giants seem to have some success working with guys who have historically been poor defenders in the OF and getting some improvement. Burrell and Huff playing much better than expected in the OF and in fact turned in positive WAR, a total 180 degree turn. I assume they hope to do the same with Morse, which would improve on his WAR/600 greatly if, say, they can turn a strongly negative player to positive, as they did with those two, until health affected both. I think Pence too had a turnaround as well, at least in UZR.  

Furthermore, he also can get some help out in LF.  Pagan is pretty speedy and could shade towards LF to help Morse out. And Blanco can and probably will come in the late innings and help reduce that negative fielding issue, Bochy has done that before in the past.

Also, Morse was once athletic enough that his team put him at SS, roughly 50 games. He is much older now and is a huge guy, but he's also never really had that much experience with playing LF, and as they say, practice makes perfect. Maybe the Giants puts him through a lot of extra drills in spring training to prepare him better to play LF than the Nats did. Again, they have had success turning water buffaloes into good fielders in the OF.

Depth is also important should the Giants make it into the World Series again.  NL teams normally are at a disadvantage with the DH in AL home parks.  But as long as Morse is healthy and productive in the fall, recovering from whatever injuries he may have during the season, Blanco can start in LF and he could be the DH, neutralizing the AL advantage for a good part.

Lastly, for $5M, they might pick up 20-30 homers to their lineup.  Plus, at $5M, you expect some warts to come with the player, it is a high risk, high reward type of situation.  Yes, his defense and chronic healthy issues are things to worry about, but there are positives as well in his power and resultant high OPS.

It's not like I'm in love with the move, but I see the positives of the move for the Giants, and there are areas where they can help tilt the balance towards the Giants favor. Unlike many others, I was OK with Blanco/Perez in LF, but improving our OF depth helps mitigate the risks of either an injury or poor performance by one of the outfielders, plus Morse could man 1B should anything happens to Belt for some reason (hey, weirder things can happen, see Kendry Morales).  Yes, he might get injured, but if they can keep him on the field, imagine him repeating 2011 with better fielding due to the Giants defensive magic.  Overall, I think it improves the Giants and helps move the bar towards the Giants making the playoffs again.
That solidifies the bench further.  Now it's Hanchez, Arias, Abreu/Adrianza, and Blanco, leaving one spot open for Juan Perez, Brett Pill, and Kieschnick to battle for, plus any minor league invites that goes out.

Your 2013 Giants: The Great Eight September Call-Ups

The Giants called up eight prospects for their September call-ups (Splash):

• MI Nick Noonan
• MI Ehire Adrianza
• OF Francisco Pequero
• OF Juan Perez
• RHP George Kontos
• RHP Jake Dunning
• RHP Heath Hembree
• C  Johnny Monell

Huff Decision: Who Leaves the 25 Man Roster?

With Huff able to leave the DL today, the Giants now have to make a decision on when to bring him back to the team.  Most of the public talk so far centers on Huff returning today, but not that long ago, they were sure he was going to be going on a rehab assignment in order to get his bat back into shape since he's been out for 2 weeks (though I would note that while he has not been in game situations, he has been spotted taking batting practice with the team during his time on the DL).  What had interested me was:  who gets voted off the 25-man roster to make space for Huff?

Your 2012 Giants: Opening Day 25-man Roster

Ultimately, the fans' fury and worry was for naught, as the Giants went with youth over vets.  Bochy announced the roster live on CSN Bay Area at 11:30AM PDT (it was available on-line!).  Here is the 25-man roster (CSN, Mercury, Chronicle):

• SP:  Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Barry Zito
• RP:  Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Clay Hensley, Javier Lopez, Guillermo Mota, Dan Otero, Sergio Romo
• C:  Buster Posey, Hector Sanchez
• IF:  Brandon Belt, Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff, Brett Pill, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Theriot
• OF:  Gregor Blanco, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nate Schierholtz

Eli Whiteside was optioned (amazingly, he still had one!) to Fresno, so if we need an experienced catcher, we can pull one up as necessary.  Chris Stewart, unfortunately, had to be let go and Bochy said that his fate would be announced in around an hour (he has been traded to the Yankees for a reliever, George Kontos, who was the top RH reliever not ranked in BA's Top 30, if that counts for anything.  2.62 ERA in 89.1 IP in AAA last season).  They must really really like Sanchez's bat a lot to do this.

Otero won the battle for the right to hold the spot warm for Ryan Vogelsong while Vogie is DLing until the 5th spot opens up on April 15th.  As I noted before, great stats, should not be the last time we see him, could be first RH call-up if any problems; Runzler is probably first LH.

Bochy said that Belt would be playing 1B most of the time, but then noted that Pill would get the starts against LHP.  Later, he also noted that Posey would see time at 1B when it is decided that he needs rest but can play 1B, and Bochy said that it would be against LHP.  Of course, that pushed Huff to LF and Schierholtz out of the starting lineup, which was one of the scenarios I laid out before spring training.  One thing I did not see was Gregor Blanco winning a spot, and so convincingly, even if a starter went down, Bochy would probably go to him before Schierholtz.

He would not commit to a starter at 2B, stating his mix and match process.  I think that has to do with a number of factors.  One is that Burriss suddenly got cold.  Another is that Theriot heated up.  Most of all, I think, it was noted at some point (can't recall if Bochy said it or I hear/saw it somewhere else) that Freddy Sanchez was suddenly looking better and doing more, so the Giants are more hopeful now that he'll be back sooner than later.  That could explain the Giants comment about Burriss being a super-utility guy for them.

Checking it Twice: Giants 2012 Top Prospects

I had previously blogged about some other Giants top prospect lists here, so since I just got Baseball America's 2012 Prospect Handbook, I thought I would write a bit more.  They do provide their Top 10 list here, but the book covers the Giants Top 30 in detail in their book.

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Gary Brown, OF 2. Tommy Joseph, 1B/C 3. Heath Hembree, RHP 4. Joe Panik, SS 5. Francisco Peguero, OF 6. Andrew Susac, C 7. Eric Surkamp, LHP 8. Kyle Crick, RHP 9. Ehire Adrianza, SS 10. Hector Sanchez, C

But the rotation is getting more expensive to keep together, and the Giants' pitching factory under vice president of player personnel Dick Tidrow is beginning to stall. They sacrificed their only elite pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, to the Mets for Beltran—who became a free agent after the season and can't bring draft-pick compensation because his contract forbid offering him arbitration.

The current strength of San Francisco's system is in position players, led by speedster Gary Brown and longball threat Tommy Joseph. Brandon Belt, who graduated to the majors in 2011, could make an impact for years to come. Scouting director John Barr added two polished college hitters in the 2011 draft, with St. John's shortstop Joe Panik in the first round and Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac in the second.

However, the Giants don't have another can't-miss position player like Posey in the system. He's determined to catch again and club officials will relent to his wishes, but they've talked about moving their best hitter out of harm's way in the not too distant future. Catcher may be the richest position in the system, with Joseph, Susac and Hector Sanchez.

The farm system was a priority for managing partner Bill Neukom, who was forced out by other partners in a palace coup in September. In the new management structure, club president Larry Baer was elevated to CEO and will report directly to the investors. The reorganization wasn't expected to impact Brian Sabean, baseball's longest-tenured GM with his current club.

ogc Thoughts

BA's list stands out for their putting Tommy Joseph #2 on their list. Most had him 3-4, though he was as low as 9 in MiLBA's Top 15 list. So it is not a huge outlier, just one beyond, but BA is certainly the highest rank of Joseph. Shows just how powerful his potential is right now: he improved defensively where people now think he can stay at catcher, and he showed a lot of power despite being one of the youngest players in the league.

They are also the only list to include Brett Pill anywhere on a list.  I understand why a list might not include him, he certainly has a lot to prove, despite his stellar 2011.  Still, he did do very well in both AAA and the majors last season, and he did it while suffering from his disappointment of 2010 and his dropping off the 40 man, and then no team even wanted to take him at virtually no cost to the other team, other than a 40 man spot.  Remember, Frandsen in his disappointment, sulked (and publicly bad-mouthed the Giants) his way off the team.

I think he's one bad injury from getting him some Pill-sanity, though at a much, much lower level of insaneness (no magazine covers for him).  Not that he'll be a star or even necessarily good, but he plays great defense at 1B and looks like he can hit OK but with good power, I think he could certainly outdo what Huff did last season, and be an average 2-WAR player, which is extremely good value for a scrub on the borderline between the 25 and 40 man rosters.  He'll be a right-handed Travis Ishikawa without the angst about performing, and be a great bench player for us over the next 6 seasons, plus maybe shine a little when an injury or poor performance lets him start for a while.

They are also the only major list to have Chuckie Jones still on their Top 20.  He disappointed in 2011, but injuries was part of the reason for that.  I am still hopeful, he's still very young, plenty of time for adjustments.

They are also the only major list to not like Josh Osich highly.  Some had him as high as 7th, but BA ranked him 23rd.  I guess they are more worried about his health and his ability to return from it than the other lists.  Because, if he's anything like what he was before he was shut down, we are talking about another Dirty, a lefty who can hurl in the mid-to-high 90's MPH.  In fact, BA thinks that he's capable of being a #2 starter:  if healthy...

They are also not as enamored with Clayton Blackburn's stellar 2011 professional debut.  They only see him as a middle rotation (#3-4) starter at best.  But his numbers were so stellar, I would lean towards the irrational exuberance than rational practicality.

Thought I would end with a look at Gary Brown's overall prospect rankings.  BA had him ranked #39 out of 100 (unfortunately, Tommy Joseph was ranked 100th until Cespedes signed, pushing him to 101st;  Hembree also got some talk for the bottom of the list but did not make it).  BP had him #18 on their 101 list.  Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had him #48.  John Sickel's had him #43 on his Top 120 list (He had Joe Panik #117). Minor League Baseball Analyst's two authors had him pretty close, #24 and #26.

And BA's top editors also had Brown up that high, which I found out in the book.  Jim Callis ranked him #29, JJ Cooper #39, Will Lingo #26, and John Manuel #25.

I've also seen a bunch of blog posts lamenting the loss of Zack Wheeler.  Most of the ranks I've seen had him in the 40's, more mid-to-high 40's, though BA had his 55th in 2011, falling from 49th in 2010 (which is a steeper fall than it seems because a lot of prospects above him either graduated or fell more themselves).

What people don't recall is that once you get past the Top 15-25 prospects overall, there is a lot of variableness in whether prospects make it or not.  Following is a list of past 40-ish prospects:

• 2009:  Jordan Schafer, Angel Villalona, Tim Alderson, Andrew Lambo, Kyle Blanks, Josh Vitters
• 2008:  Ian Stewart, Lars Anderson, Jeff Clement, Josh Vitters, Daric Barton, Matt Antonelli, J.R. Towles
• 2007:  Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jacob Mcgee, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Fields, Ian Stewart, Bill Rowell, Travis Buck
• 2006:  Homer Bailey, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Rogers, Adam Loewen, Adam Miller, Brian Anderson
• 2005:  Eric Duncan, Brian Anderson, Conor Jackson, Michael Aubrey, Dan Meyer, Josh Barfield, Yusmeiro Petit, Homer Bailey

I'll note here that I'm doing this from memory right now, so maybe a few of the above worked out better than I remembered, but generally, these prospects (and as you can see, some stayed in there in consecutive years, boosting their farm system's "status" as a good farm system, whereas the Giants top players - Lincecum, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey, Belt - were maybe on BA's top list, at most, one time in their time as prospects; heck, Sandoval couldn't even get on his own team's top prospect list, let alone the BA overall top list).

Still, just because Wheeler is on the list again this year is no guarantee that he's going to ever make it.  The Giants, by trading him, effectively voted that he will not make it, at least as a good starter.  He might eat a lot of innings and be an OK middle rotation starter in the majors, but as a study by The Hardball Times concluded, teams usually know their prospects better than other teams and tend to trade away the prospects that they have deemed to be not keepers.  Given the Giants brain trust's (Sabean, Tidrow et al plus Barr) stellar record in trading prospects and not giving up a good, above 2-WAR per season player, if I had to bet, I would bet that Wheeler not reach his potential and be a good starter, with a low ERA.

And as a sad reminder for us of how prospect high rankings are no guarantees, in 2001 and 2002 Jerome Williams was ranked #19 overall for us and in 2003 Jesse Foppert was #5 (! just behind Jose Reyes and Joe Mauer and ahead of Brandon Phillips, K-Rod, Scott Kazmir, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, B.J. Upton).  Heck, Boof Bonser was #29 in 2002,  and Kurt Ainsworth #30 in 2001.

Now, to some of the points made in the quote above from BA.

First, it notes that the Giant's pitching factory is beginning to stall.  That is because they have selected position players in 3 of the past 4 drafts, whereas before, the Giants had mostly spent their first round picks on pitchers.  Those picks are the picks with the highest chance (roughly 10% when you are contending) of finding a good, above average player.

So that is why they are "stalling", not because they are failing to find pitching while actively looking for pitching, but just because they are working on finding good position players in recent seasons instead of pitching and thus not finding as many pitchers.  If you stop looking for pitching as intently as you did before, I view that as less a failure and more a change in strategy/tactics.  While I think some of the 2011 picks could pick up the pace (Crick, Osich, Blackburn), I expect the Giants to put more emphasis on pitching again going forward, unless there is clearly a "must pick" BPA position player who falls to them.  And, still, most of their picks in rounds 1-10 were pitching, even in 2011,

Second, there are two reasons why the Giants don't have another can't miss position player in the system currently.  First, those are very hard to find when you are winning.  You have a much greater chance when you are losing a lot of games and getting the great draft picks.  Second, the Giants did have one in Belt, but due to injuries, they decided to rush him to the majors and hope that he could figure things out.  Unfortunately, he didn't.  But had he followed normal development, he most likely would have spent 2011 in the minors and be eligible to be ranked as a prospect for 2012.  For all intents and purposes, Belt is still considered a high potential prospect, but according to baseball rules, he cannot be considered a rookie anymore, which is the criteria that BA uses to decide who to cover and who not to follow.

Thirdly, the Giants made a priority of the farm system before Neukom took over.  They spent all that money on Villalona, RafRod, Posey, and Wheeler, over-paying for each of them.  They also went over slot for Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner, Wheeler, among others prior to Neukom.  They also brought in John Barr, both to emphasize position players (not announced but clearly a change in the drafts so far) and improve international scouting and development (that was announced as one of the reasons to get him).

Let's put it this way:  the Giants are currently staffed by a lot of farm products who were all acquired long before Neukom took over, ever so briefly, as managing owner, the main effects of his influence on the draft will not have a visible effect on the team until the draftees from 2009-11 start showing up and taking starting positions.

Thankfully, in any case, the CBA no longer allows a team to punt a pick, so even if they were tempted to even think about doing that again, the Giants will be required to select and presumably sign their draftees going forward, Neukom or no Neukom.

And while the removal of Neukom was described as a "palace coup", I would note that the Chronicle's Insiders reporters, Matier and Ross, reported that the reason he was forced out was because he was asking for a $10M annual salary.  As much as I liked Neukom as managing owner and miss having him in charge, if there is any truth to that rumor, I am glad he was pushed out, I would much rather the team spend that money on players and development than paying the CEO.

Lastly, most rankings of the Giants farm system have them rated very low.  While that is probably true (I'm not going to get into that), that is missing the whole content of why they are in that position today.   They are mostly in that position today because of a number of reasons.

First and most importantly of all, they have been a winning team for 3 seasons now.  When you are a contender, you get lousy first round pick position and it is very difficult to find a good player drafting that far back.  You can't help but have a bad system when you are winning for any length of time.  Let's put it this way:  the A's would have had an even worse farm system today, probably, if they didn't trade away most of their All-Star players and picked up a boatload of prospects.  Think of how good a farm system the Giants would be ranked to have had they traded away, say, Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval?

Secondly, they have been very aggressive, and mostly successful, with moving their top prospects into the majors.  If the Giants prospects were like other team's, Posey, Bumgarner, and Belt could still be in the farm system, hoping that this would be the year they break out, but because they are talented, highly ranked in the Top 100 and giving their team the appearance of a strong farm system.

For example, Homer Bailey was ranked #48 in 2005, #38 in 2006, #5 in 2007, and #9 in 2008, boosting the Reds' overall ranking and making them viewed as more of a successful farm system, and yet the Reds are still waiting for him to break out.  Belt was only on one list, 2011, Posey and Bumgarner 2009 and 2010, Lincecum only in 2007, Cain highly ranked in 2005 and 2006 (he was #91 in 2004).  So who has had a better farm system then?

Thirdly, the Giants are actually doing OK, when you examine the circumstances.  Given their poor draft position in the past couple of drafts, they are actually doing well having a highly ranked prospect of Brown's caliber in their system.  Heck, they would look even better right now if Belt had been kept in AAA in 2011 instead of being brought up a lot due to injury needs.  Given that Belt is still a prospect, just not by definition for any of the Top Prospects lists, how can their farm system be accurately represented if Belt is not included as part of their farm system?

So there are all sorts of problems with the methodology of how farm systems are ranked.  And I don't think that there is a way to come up with one measurement that says it all.  I think one good way to see how well the farm system is doing is by looking at how many of the starters are farm products.  By that measure, the Giants farm system is looking pretty good compared to most MLB teams.

People complain that the Giants have not produced position players, but neglect to realize that the question can be turned back to them if we ask them to name which teams have produced a better rotation than Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner from their farm system?  That's the reason why the Giants have not produced many position prospects, they have focused on producing great pitching prospects.

It is a trade off that many complainers ignore or slough off.  And if I had to chose between having an equivalent hitter or one of our great pitchers, I would chose our pitchers in a heart beat, pitching is the way teams dominate in the players, it is no guarantee, as my research showed, but it is a necessary ingredient if you want to have any strong and good hopes of going deep into the playoffs.  The complainers do not realize that demanding position players be produced means less pitchers, which means that they don't really understand that today's research says that if you want to do well in the playoffs, you focus on pitching and fielding, period.

El Lefty Malo is AWESOME: Rowand and Tejada DFAed

El Lefty Malo is AWESOME!  Read his post on what he thought the Giants need to do.

And the Giants appeared to listen to him, though not to the letter (sub Tejada for Cabrera) by DFAing Rowand and Tejada.  Arguably, this is a bigger message sent since Tejada is paid a lot more than Cabrera.  But I think his open pouting and discussion of such regarding the bunt helped Giants management push the button easier on that one.

Rowand's lack of production made his release an easy one, $14M or not, as Baggarly reported that he was openly campaigning for getting out of SF, a circumstance that probably made the decision for Giants management that much more obvious as well.  He has reached the true point of "sunk costs":  at least last season he was a viable talent off the bench, producing some value as a player, and for the first half of this season, but for a number of months now he has been even worse than replacement value.

They were clearly "addition by subtraction" type of moves.  That's nearly $20M wrote off, so Zito could be gone sometime next season as well if he's not producing or even if he's not in the starting rotation, since the Giants could go with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Vogelsong in the rotation.

Sabean says that he will try to trade both of them today so that they can hook on with a playoff contending team; Rowand is hoping to rejoin the Phillies, but I don't see the Giants doing that one, I don't think that they want to see him haunting them in any way.  I also don't see any team wanting to even give up a low level prospect for either of them, much cleaner to wait for the end of the 10-day period and sign them then.  Nobody will be crying that they didn't pick these players up in time to make the playoff roster, as defiant as Tejada's statement was the other day about contributing to somebody's playoff efforts.  But if Renteria can get a job somewhere, I'm sure Tejada will as well.

Meanwhile, the Giants activated Pat Burrell and purchased the contract of Brett Pill, rewarding his great season so far in AAA, plus his willingness to play a number of different positions.  As much as I would hope that Pill mashes, the history of players his age who hit well but not that great in AAA is not encouraging, they normally don't come up here and do much of anything.  But I wish him all the success he can get, and who knows, he could be the exception to prove the rule.  I certainly would not have thought that Crawford could keep his strikeout rate so low in the majors, or his walk rate so high, so there's always that.

I assume part of this move was to enable Burrell to be available for the playoffs should we be able to fight our way in.  And at this point, you roll the dice and see what you got with Pill, there is really no one else high in the system worth that shot.

Baggarly also noted that there is still an open 40-man spot with this move.  That opens up the possibility of bringing up another player, such as Bill Hall or Marc Kroon.  Sentimentally, I would go with Kroon, but objectively, Hall is probably the more logical move because he can play multiple positions and has been hitting OK in the minors, though not great, at least if he were still a major league caliber hitter.  If he were, he should have been killing the ball.  Still, he's been a major leaguer, and it wasn't that long ago that he was hitting OK (last season), so you might want to take a chance on that.  But at this point, I would go with Kroon, would make great story, might juice the clubhouse by his inspirational story, which Hall would not provide.

Nice offense today, just what this team needs, 4 runs, that is all we ask for, daily, and our pitching can win with that.  Appears that the shock of the move got some of the hitters moving, though really, Jeff Keppinger and Mark DeRosa has been hitting lately, and of course, Pablo Sandoval has usually been hitting.  Fontenot had a nice game too, as did Chris Stewart, whom I've liked since he came up to the majors for us.

However, neither Carlos Beltran or Cody Ross did much of anything to help, though perhaps Ross is now afraid that Burrell will take his ABs away.  Sigh: he should realize that it is his poor hitting that is taking away his ABs, not the OF situation, Bochy would start him a lot if he were hitting as well as he was for most of this season, and not the sad numbers he has put up since Beltran was traded for.   Beltran has been hot for the most part lately, but have been coming up small when we needed him, like in yesterday's game, he could have tied the game with a base-hit and got us back in the game with a timely hit.

And, of course, Madison Bumgarner gave us a great game.  Hopefully it is a start for the rotation, seems like a statement game by him:  try and top this, ladies.

40 Man Changes: 3 Spots Left

The Giants just announced a few 40 man roster moves in anticipation of the Rule 5 Draft that will happen soon, here are the changes:

• RHP Jose Casilla was added.
• RHP Steve Edlefsen was added.
• LHP Clayton Tanner was added.
• 1B Brett Pill was outrighted to Triple-A Fresno
• RHP Waldis Joaquin was placed on release waivers.
  

That left the team with 37 players on the 40 man roster, leaving space for 3 players. Given that the Giants are clearly pursuing Huff and Uribe, if they should achieve what they hope for, that would leave only one spot left, meaning that they would only be able to add Burrell or Renteria but not both, without needing to clear a spot on the roster if they want both players.

This last spot could also be for someone they hope to snag in the Rule 5 draft themselves.  They have been relatively active in that arena in recent seasons, though no one has stuck so far.  Some have looked good enough that other teams then snagged them, but the only one who appears to have some MLB hope is the pitcher the Giants drafted then returned, only for San Diego to pick him up and keep him on their roster, I think in 2009.  And still, the hope is not that great.

Still, this is very much like the amateur draft after the first couple of rounds.  Not very many of the players drafted via this process ever make the majors and stick, let alone be a regular starter.  But successful pickups like Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton (pick someone whose first name starts with a J?) means that teams will continue to participate and hope they find the right guy ready to take the big leap.  Kind of like the regular amateur draft.

When I find out who might be drafted away from us via the Rule 5 Draft, I'll post it.  If you know it, please post the link in the comments.

Here is what the linked article above mentioned on each player, I'll add comments:

• Casilla, the younger brother of Giants reliever Santiago Casilla, finished 4-1 with a 1.16 ERA and 14 saves in 46 appearances. The 21-year-old made the South Atlantic League's midseason All-Star team.  
• OGC:  from what I've read, he's even better than his older brother.  He did extremely well, despite being much younger than most players in the league.  He could be being groomed in case the Giants might have to let go of Wilson, depending on how much money he wants beyond arbitration.
• Edlefsen, 25, was 7-2 with a 2.38 ERA and six saves in 49 relief appearances in his second season at Triple-A Fresno and was named a Pacific Coast League midseason All-Star.  
• OGC:  If I recall right, he was named by BA as having the best slider in the system for a number of years now.  He hasn't risen as fast as I was hoping given his early hype when he turned pro, but he did very well in AAA in 2010.  Unfortunately for him, the Giants are currently full up on relievers, he'll probably be among the first choices the Giants consider if anyone is injured or need to be replaced due to poor performance in 2011 and probably will get a chance in 2012, I think a number of relievers are eligible for free agency then or arbitration.  
• Tanner, 22, went 9-9 with a 3.68 ERA in 27 starts for Double-A Richmond in 2010. The graduate of De La Salle High School in Concord, Calif., made the Eastern League midseason All-Star team and finished ninth in the league in ERA. 
•  OGC:  I have been rooting for Tanner but he's the crafty lefty type of pitchers and those types of pitchers need to prove themselves at every level.  He'll have to prove himself in 2011 in AAA, then eventually the majors.  But he's done pretty well at each level and he's still prospect young, so there is plenty of hope.  But with the low K-rate, the odds will be long.  And we saw how Pucetas flamed out in AAA.  But I always have a soft spot for prospects with local ties.  Go Clayton!
• Joaquin, 23, appeared in four games with the Giants this season, allowing six runs (five earned) in 4 2/3 innings. He spent most of the year with Triple-A Fresno and posted a 1-2 mark with a 4.93 ERA in 23 games, including five starts. He underwent lower back surgery on Nov. 10.  
• OGC:  I was pretty shocked to see him being dropped until I saw the lower back surgery mentioned.  They took a calculated risk, dropping him off the 40-man to open up a spot, hoping nobody will want to take him while he's recovering from major surgery, and then they can tuck him back into the farm system while he recovers. He's still young and got a lot of speed and stuff, so there's still a chance. 
• Pill, 26, batted .275 (143-for-520) with 34 doubles, 16 home runs and 84 RBIs at Fresno. 
• OGC:  Some people were really clamoring for him after his good AA season in 2009, but they failed to account for the fact that he did it at age 25.  It was a nice season but Ishikawa had a much better season than Pill did in AA, it wasn't even close and he did it at a younger age, and yet did not get the hype I saw with Pill among fans.  I don't know if it was because Ishikawa started out with a lot of hope/hype due to his high bonus but then was a disappointment, then did finally broke out of it, while Pill wasn't on anyone's radar and suddenly had one good season, but I don't understand the difference in interest, particularly since Ishikawa has shown a lot more power, particularly HR power, and their fielding is probably equal.  It appears I was correct, Pill had a nondescript 2010 and was dropped.

2010 Spring Training Cuts

Hank Schulman captured the hitters cut yesterday and Andy Baggarly covered the pitchers today.

The hitters:

• Brett Pill, 1B
• Ehire Adrianza, SS
• Wendell Fairley, CF
• Johnny Monell, C
• Thomas Neal, OF
• Nick Noonan, 2B
• Hector Sanchez, C
• Jackson Williams, C

The pitchers:

• Craig Clark
• Rafael Cova
• Steve Edlefsen
• Eric Hacker
• Osirus Matos
• Clayton Tanner
• Dan Turpen
• Craig Whitaker

Plus, Steven Johnson, our Rule 5 draft pick passed through waivers and was offered back to the Orioles, who presumably will take him back, if not already.

None were surprising to my mind. Schulman noted the following, however, about Pill:

The only mild surprise is Pill, because I was told he would get a long look this spring. But that was before Aubrey Huff's defensive deficiencies became so apparent, prompting the team to give Buster Posey and John Bowker some longer looks at first base. Pill needs to get his work in the minor-league camp.

According to Baseball America, Pill is the best defensive firstbaseman in the Giants farm system, so that makes sense that they would want to look at him longer. However, as nicely as he did in AA last season, he was a 24 YO in a league averaging 24 YO and did not stand out from the crowd offensively. Only the best of the best in the league will move on to the majors and be successful.

For example, in 2008, Pablo Sandoval hit .337/.364/.549/.913, good for 9th in the EL. He was 21 YO. Wieters led the league in OPS and was 22 YO. None of the other "leaders" in the EL in OPS were highly thought of prospects, and age had to do with it. Only Nick Evans of the Mets (22 YO) was in the Top 10 and that young. Casper Wells (23YO) was 4th and is 16th in Detroit's system this season. Luke Hughes (23 YO) was 7th and has already fell off the Twin's prospect list.

It would have been a stretch to see Pill on the major league roster to start the season. And I suppose part of that interest to see him was driven by Ishikawa's injury with no clear take on what would happen until recently when they determined that he won't need surgery and would be ready for the season.

Meanwhile, Buster Posey continues to impress at 1B, which could be another reason Pill was sending packing (see Haft's nice article on Posey). Still, as this and other articles note, the Giants view Posey as a catcher, and Bochy's comments in this post affirm that: "I like the way he's catching. I want to keep him sharp back there." I think it is clear that Posey is the Giants catcher of the future and that the Giants will promote him when that time comes.

However, most probably that time is the second half of this season and I can see the Giants bringing up Posey and basically platoon him between C and 1B, giving Molina rests at 1B, and giving Posey AB's against LHP at 1B in place of Huff. And if they make the playoffs, he'll be a potent bat off the bench or perhaps even starting, depending on how poorly Molina and/or Huff is hitting, plus how tired Posey is, he clearly pooped out at the end of the 2009 season. And should they be lucky enough to make the World Series, he could be starting at either DH or 1B, depending on the situation regarding Huff's defense.

And that's the big news in this news blurb, that Huff's defense is causing a Giants re-think on how 1B is handled. Clearly, they need a strong defensive 1B on the bench now, meaning Posey won't cut it and Ishikawa, as long as he is healthy enough, will be that strong defensive 1B. Prior defensive stats (like UZR and Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus) suggested that Huff might have been OK enough there (about -0.5 wins) to warrant giving up the defense for his bat, but clearly there is some worry there now. And greater need for keeping someone like Ishikawa around all season for 2010, even though he's also a lefty and cannot really play any other position.